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Blitz Dorsey
02-22-2010, 04:24 PM
http://www.threewaychili.com/

2010 CINCINNATI REDS

STARTING PITCHING ROTATION
1. Bronson Arroyo
2. Aaron Harang
3. Johnny Cueto
4. Homer Bailey
5. ???

(Edinson Volquez is returning from Tommy John surgery and is expected to return in early August.)

CANDIDATES FOR No. 5 SPOT (in alphabetical order)
Aroldis Chapman
Mike Leake
Justin Lehr
Mike Lincoln
Matt Maloney
Micah Owings
Kip Wells
Travis Wood

BULLPEN (in order of importance)
Francisco Cordero (closer)
Arthur Rhodes (lefty)
Nick Masset
Jared Burton
Danny Ray Herrera (lefty)
Micah Owings
Mike Lincoln

OTHER BULLPEN CANDIDATES (in order of importance)
Carlos Fisher
Pedro Viola (lefty)
Enerio Del Rosario
Logan Ondrusek
Bill Bray (lefty coming off Tommy John surgery)

LINEUP
1. Drew Stubbs CF
2. Orlando Cabrera SS
3. Joey Votto 1B
4. Brandon Phillips 2B
5. Jay Bruce RF
6. Scott Rolen 3B
7. Wladimir Balentien/Chris Dickerson/Jonny Gomes/Laynce Nix LF
8. Ramon Hernandez C

RESERVES
Balentien/Dickerson/Gomes/Nix/ OF
Aaron Miles 2B, SS, 3B
Paul Janish SS
Ryan Hanigan C
Juan Francisco 3B, LF (likely to begin season in AAA)
Todd Frazier, INF, LF (likely to begin season in AAA)
Drew Sutton 2B, 3B, SS

PREDICTION: 83-79

savafan
02-22-2010, 04:39 PM
When did we acquire ???

Chip R
02-22-2010, 04:39 PM
When did we acquire ???


On ....

bucksfan2
02-22-2010, 04:40 PM
Starting Pitching
1. Harang
2. Arroyo
3. Cueto
4. Bailey
5. Maloney

Bull Pen
1. Cordero
2. Rhodes
3. Massett
4. Owings
5. Burton
6. Bray
7. Lincoln

Lineup
1. Stubbs CF
2. Cabrera SS
3. Votto 1B
4. Phillips 2B
5. Rolen 3B
6. Bruce RF
7. Gomes LF
8. Hernandez C

Bench
1. Dickerson
2. Balentine
3. Hanigan
4. Miles
5. Sutton

This is who I think will make it out of spring, not necessarily who I would want. When camp breaks often it is a matter of who has options who makes the big league club vs who is sent to AAA ball. I think Heisey is the first OF up and I think Frazier is the first infielder up. I will be interesting to see what happens with Miles and Sutton. They may be in a dog fight for a roster spot with the likes of Frazier and Valakia.

As for the bullpen I think Lincoln makes it based upon contract status, but I would not be surprised if he gets DFA'd. I also think Bray has better stuff than Herrera, and I wonder how long of a shelf life Herrera has. You can only get by on trick pitches for so long. Herrera can't get over exposed or it will be batting practice.

Will M
02-22-2010, 06:04 PM
When did we acquire ???

??? is poised for a big year. I for one am happy he's a Red!

Tom Servo
02-22-2010, 07:12 PM
??? is overrated, his WHIP and peripherals suggest a big letdown in 10. But that won't stop Dusty from trotting him out there every 5th day.

BearcatShane
02-22-2010, 07:26 PM
Seems like a lot of people are high on the Reds. (83-79 is high for our standards)

Will M
02-22-2010, 07:43 PM
Starting Pitching
1. Harang
2. Arroyo
3. Cueto
4. Bailey
5. Maloney

Bull Pen
1. Cordero
2. Rhodes
3. Massett
4. Owings
5. Burton
6. Bray
7. Lincoln

Lineup
1. Stubbs CF
2. Cabrera SS
3. Votto 1B
4. Phillips 2B
5. Rolen 3B
6. Bruce RF
7. Gomes LF
8. Hernandez C

Bench
1. Dickerson
2. Balentine
3. Hanigan
4. Miles
5. Sutton

This is who I think will make it out of spring, not necessarily who I would want. When camp breaks often it is a matter of who has options who makes the big league club vs who is sent to AAA ball. I think Heisey is the first OF up and I think Frazier is the first infielder up. I will be interesting to see what happens with Miles and Sutton. They may be in a dog fight for a roster spot with the likes of Frazier and Valakia.

As for the bullpen I think Lincoln makes it based upon contract status, but I would not be surprised if he gets DFA'd. I also think Bray has better stuff than Herrera, and I wonder how long of a shelf life Herrera has. You can only get by on trick pitches for so long. Herrera can't get over exposed or it will be batting practice.

pretty close to what i think. i do think the playing time in CF & LF can be won or lost this spring.

I think most of us have Maloney pencilled in as the 5th SP. I suspect Wells & Lehr are reaql longshots and were just signed as insurance against injuries. We would all LOVE to see Chapman win the spot but he has to win it. The team isn't going to rush their $30M investnment to the bigs too soon.
Owings had his chance in 2009 & stunk. time for someone else. i am fine with pitching Owings out of the pen.

the last bullpen spot is up for grabs. I have no idea if Lincoln can still pitch after having surgery for a henriated disk in his neck.

i think the 1rst backup IF spot is up for grabs. Janish gets it if Cabrera looks iffy defensively. Miles has to prove he has anything left and Sutton has to prove he belongs in the bigs. its conceivable that Miles & Sutton both look poor this spring and the team goes looking to trade for a backup IF late this spring.

the 25th roster spot would presumably go to a 2nd backup IF.

my prediction:
Harang
Arroyo
Cueto
Bailey
Maloney (L)

Cordero
Rhodes (L)
Massett
Owings
Burton
Herrera (L)
Lincoln :( who ends up getting cut by May 15th

C Hernandez & Hanigan
1B Votto
2B Phillips
SS Cabrera with Janish for late inning defense
3B Rolen
RF Bruce
CF Stubbs with Dickerson playing here a fair amount vs RHP
LF Dickerson or Balentien platooning with Gomes

Last roster spot: Sutton.

nate
02-22-2010, 07:43 PM
??? bats ???

camisadelgolf
02-22-2010, 08:03 PM
??? is poised for a big year. I for one am happy he's a Red!
Yeah, but I heard he's going to make $$$. The Reds would probably be better-served trading him.

Sea Ray
02-22-2010, 09:02 PM
Starting Pitching
1. Harang
2. Arroyo
3. Cueto
4. Bailey
5. Maloney

Bull Pen
1. Cordero
2. Rhodes
3. Massett
4. Owings
5. Burton
6. Bray
7. Lincoln

Lineup
1. Stubbs CF
2. Cabrera SS
3. Votto 1B
4. Phillips 2B
5. Rolen 3B
6. Bruce RF
7. Gomes LF
8. Hernandez C

Bench
1. Dickerson
2. Balentine
3. Hanigan
4. Miles
5. Sutton

This is who I think will make it out of spring, not necessarily who I would want. When camp breaks often it is a matter of who has options who makes the big league club vs who is sent to AAA ball. I think Heisey is the first OF up and I think Frazier is the first infielder up. I will be interesting to see what happens with Miles and Sutton. They may be in a dog fight for a roster spot with the likes of Frazier and Valakia.

As for the bullpen I think Lincoln makes it based upon contract status, but I would not be surprised if he gets DFA'd. I also think Bray has better stuff than Herrera, and I wonder how long of a shelf life Herrera has. You can only get by on trick pitches for so long. Herrera can't get over exposed or it will be batting practice.


So you don't think Janish makes the team? I'd be surprised if he doesn't. I don't think there's much to be gained by sending him to AAA.

Your bench doesn't really have a backup SS on it, although I'll grant you a couple could play SS in a pinch

I don't think Dusty agrees with me but I'd like to see an eleven man staff and a 6 man bench

Blitz Dorsey
02-22-2010, 11:19 PM
I can't believe we gave ??? a Major League deal. Clearly, he/it should have been offered a minor league deal. There goes Walt bidding against himself again. ;-)

guttle11
02-22-2010, 11:28 PM
??? has great baseball genes. His uncle is PTBNL Jones.

Sea Ray
02-22-2010, 11:35 PM
I can't believe we gave ??? a Major League deal. Clearly, he/it should have been offered a minor league deal. There goes Walt bidding against himself again. ;-)

Why do you care if it was a major or minor league deal if the major league deal is not guaranteed? This quote came out today after the Chapman press conference:



The Reds also confirmed Monday they have signed outfielder Jonny Gomes to a non-guaranteed one-year contract with a club option.

Blitz Dorsey
02-22-2010, 11:48 PM
Why do you care if it was a major or minor league deal if the major league deal is not guaranteed? This quote came out today after the Chapman press conference:

It was a joke, bud. (Obviously not a very good one.)

savafan
02-23-2010, 02:58 AM
Why do you care if it was a major or minor league deal if the major league deal is not guaranteed? This quote came out today after the Chapman press conference:

I didn't know MLB had non guaranteed major league contracts. :confused:

Ron Madden
02-23-2010, 03:30 AM
So you don't think Janish makes the team? I'd be surprised if he doesn't. I don't think there's much to be gained by sending him to AAA.

Your bench doesn't really have a backup SS on it, although I'll grant you a couple could play SS in a pinch

I don't think Dusty agrees with me but I'd like to see an eleven man staff and a 6 man bench

I look for Janish to be traded. He was up with the Reds a long while in 2009 and spent most of that time on the bench, he never got playing time until after AGon was traded. Don't think Dusty or Walt have very much faith in him.

redsmetz
02-23-2010, 05:18 AM
I didn't know MLB had non guaranteed major league contracts. :confused:

I think this article addresses this. Although it speaks about arbitration situations, I'm guessing the same principle applies; that if Gomes is cut following spring training, the Reds only have to pay 45 days maximum of his 2010 salary.

http://riveraveblues.com/2009/02/the-non-guaranteed-nature-of-arbitration-7503/

bucksfan2
02-23-2010, 08:29 AM
So you don't think Janish makes the team? I'd be surprised if he doesn't. I don't think there's much to be gained by sending him to AAA.

Your bench doesn't really have a backup SS on it, although I'll grant you a couple could play SS in a pinch

I don't think Dusty agrees with me but I'd like to see an eleven man staff and a 6 man bench

Yea I completely overlooked Janish. I fully expect Janish to make the club, and would be surprised if he didn't make the club. I think the last roster spot comes down to Sutton and Miles. Does Sutton have options? If not then I think it comes down to projecting Sutton into the future vs. Miles ability to play more positions.

Sea Ray
02-23-2010, 09:10 AM
I look for Janish to be traded. He was up with the Reds a long while in 2009 and spent most of that time on the bench, he never got playing time until after AGon was traded. Don't think Dusty or Walt have very much faith in him.

I disagree. I think they feel they need Janish for late game defense at the very least. I don't think they feel Sutton or Miles is a shortstop.

Blitz Dorsey
02-23-2010, 10:18 AM
Yea I completely overlooked Janish. I fully expect Janish to make the club, and would be surprised if he didn't make the club. I think the last roster spot comes down to Sutton and Miles. Does Sutton have options? If not then I think it comes down to projecting Sutton into the future vs. Miles ability to play more positions.

I agree that the final roster spot will come down to Miles and Sutton and I think Miles will get it unless he is completely awful in ST and Sutton tears it up. Miles is owed $1.3 mil and I think Sutton does have options (not sure on that though).

It will also be interesting to see who gets the last backup OF spot. People seem to be writing off Nix but I think he has a decent shot at making the club. Really fell off at the plate last year after a hot start, but is good defensively and I think he could put together a good offensive year. Then again, I would still probably put him behind guys like Gomes, Dickerson and Balentien in the race to be a starting LF in a platoon role or a backup OF.

bucksfan2
02-23-2010, 10:31 AM
I agree that the final roster spot will come down to Miles and Sutton and I think Miles will get it unless he is completely awful in ST and Sutton tears it up. Miles is owed $1.3 mil and I think Sutton does have options (not sure on that though).

It will also be interesting to see who gets the last backup OF spot. People seem to be writing off Nix but I think he has a decent shot at making the club. Really fell off at the plate last year after a hot start, but is good defensively and I think he could put together a good offensive year. Then again, I would still probably put him behind guys like Gomes, Dickerson and Balentien in the race to be a starting LF in a platoon role or a backup OF.

Last years outfield was a hot mess. When you have McDonald as the opening day CF you aren't going to win many games. Even worse was Taveras getting the CF nod until mid season. I think Nix took advantage of an OF in transition. Bruce was the only guy who was ready (that is even debatable) who was a long term answer. Dickerson was still a question mark, Stubbs was half a season away. Guys like Heisey, Frazier, etc. all started the season in AA ball and were at least a full season away from contributing.

The way I see it the OF looks like this
RF Bruce
CF Stubbs
RF Gomes
4th OF Dickerson
5th OF Balentine

Nix looks to be the odd man out and will likely be competing for the 5th man spot with Balentine, with Balentine getting the edge because Nix is on a minor league contract. If you break it down even further, Nix isn't better defensively than Bruce, Stubbs, or Dickerson. Gomes sure, but he doesn't bring the bat that Gomes does. I just don't see Nix fitting into the equation unless someone gets injured. And to be honest if Nix gets significant playing time this club is in trouble.

_Sir_Charles_
02-23-2010, 11:12 AM
I also think Bray has better stuff than Herrera, and I wonder how long of a shelf life Herrera has. You can only get by on trick pitches for so long. Herrera can't get over exposed or it will be batting practice.

In terms of arm strength, yeah, Bray has much better stuff than Danny. But Herrera doesn't get by with a trick pitch. He has several pitches. He just throws them ALL effectively. At every stop along the way too. When a guy pitches one inning a game, it's tough to get overexposed IMO. And after a certain amount of time, we just have to accept the fact that the kid can pitch, regardless of his size or stuff. Velocity isn't everything. Location and changing speeds is often times much more effective than blowing hitters away. Especially on a staff like ours is with a majority of fireballers.

I don't think there's a CHANCE he doesn't make the squad.

nate
02-23-2010, 11:16 AM
Last years outfield was a hot mess. When you have McDonald as the opening day CF you aren't going to win many games. Even worse was Taveras getting the CF nod until mid season. I think Nix took advantage of an OF in transition. Bruce was the only guy who was ready (that is even debatable) who was a long term answer. Dickerson was still a question mark, Stubbs was half a season away. Guys like Heisey, Frazier, etc. all started the season in AA ball and were at least a full season away from contributing.

The way I see it the OF looks like this
RF Bruce
CF Stubbs
RF Gomes
4th OF Dickerson
5th OF Balentine

Nix looks to be the odd man out and will likely be competing for the 5th man spot with Balentine, with Balentine getting the edge because Nix is on a minor league contract. If you break it down even further, Nix isn't better defensively than Bruce, Stubbs, or Dickerson. Gomes sure, but he doesn't bring the bat that Gomes does. I just don't see Nix fitting into the equation unless someone gets injured. And to be honest if Nix gets significant playing time this club is in trouble.

Two right fielders should make for some interesting positioning.

:cool:

bucksfan2
02-23-2010, 11:34 AM
In terms of arm strength, yeah, Bray has much better stuff than Danny. But Herrera doesn't get by with a trick pitch. He has several pitches. He just throws them ALL effectively. At every stop along the way too. When a guy pitches one inning a game, it's tough to get overexposed IMO. And after a certain amount of time, we just have to accept the fact that the kid can pitch, regardless of his size or stuff. Velocity isn't everything. Location and changing speeds is often times much more effective than blowing hitters away. Especially on a staff like ours is with a majority of fireballers.

I don't think there's a CHANCE he doesn't make the squad.

There is a certain point where velocity does matter. And I think Herrera sits right now that point. You can fool a batter all you want but if that ball doesn't have enough velocity a batter can flick his wrist and foul it off. I fear that once the league sees him a time or two, he will be exposed and less effective.

Don't get me wrong I agree that location and changing speeds are very important to a pitcher, but I think its important to note that most pitchers can get that fast ball up to at least 88, not 78 in Herrera's situation.

bucksfan2
02-23-2010, 11:35 AM
Two right fielders should make for some interesting positioning.

:cool:

Drew Stubbs will play LC :cool:

Ron Madden
02-23-2010, 01:17 PM
I disagree. I think they feel they need Janish for late game defense at the very least. I don't think they feel Sutton or Miles is a shortstop.


You might be right. Time will tell.