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OnBaseMachine
02-23-2010, 11:32 AM
22 AROLDIS CHAPMAN LHP, REDS
Best Tool: Fastball.
BA Grade: 80.
Opening
Day Age: 22 ETA: Mid-2010

43 TODD FRAZIER OF/2B/3B, REDS
Best Tool: Power.
BA Grade: 60.
Opening
Day Age: 24 ETA: Mid-2010

45 YONDER ALONSO 1B, REDS
Best Tool: Bat.
BA Grade: 65.
Opening
Day Age: 22 ETA:2011

72 MIKE LEAKE RHP, REDS
Best Tool: Command.
BA Grade: 70.
Opening
Day Age: 22 ETA: 2011

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2010/269553.html

RedsManRick
02-23-2010, 11:43 AM
Interesting to see Leake at "just" 70 on command. I wonder what 80 looks like.

OnBaseMachine
02-23-2010, 11:52 AM
I was surprised that one of Chris Heisey and Travis Wood didn't make the top 100.

dougdirt
02-23-2010, 12:21 PM
I was surprised that one of Chris Heisey and Travis Wood didn't make the top 100.

I wasn't. Heisey is not a spring chicken, doesn't have inspiring tools and has had 1 great stretch of 250 at bats in AA.

With Wood, his lack of an above average fastball probably doomed him. BA tends to give a little more weight to a fastball than the whole package.

OnBaseMachine
02-23-2010, 01:18 PM
There's a few players on that list who I would take Wood, Heisey, and even Francisco over. Most notably, Josh Vitters, who continues to be overrated. Honestly, I don't see the difference between Francisco and Vitters. Both have plus power, questionable defensive skills, and bad plate discipline. Not sure why Vitters is ranked so high while Francisco isn't in the top 100. The Cubs placed five prospects in the top 100 - it's pretty obvious that Jim Callis had a strong influence on the list.

edabbs44
02-23-2010, 01:18 PM
I wasn't. Heisey is not a spring chicken, doesn't have inspiring tools and has had 1 great stretch of 250 at bats in AA.

With Wood, his lack of an above average fastball probably doomed him. BA tends to give a little more weight to a fastball than the whole package.

Have to agree, Heisey needs to prove a bit more and Wood, the same.

HokieRed
02-23-2010, 01:41 PM
I'm more surprised by Wood's being left off than Heisey's. Doesn't mean I think Wood's a top 100 prospect but he is a lefty who had about as good a season as any starter in the minors last year.

RedsManRick
02-23-2010, 02:44 PM
Vitters is two years younger than Fransisco, has yet to be moved off 3B, and came with a very high pedigree. BA incorporates a lot of qualitative info in their rankings and Vitters has had less time to show off his warts and tarnish scouts' opinion of his potential.

Regarding Heisey & Wood, I think we have to remember that 100 prospects really isn't all that much when you're talking about 30 teams' minor league systems. That's just over 3 guys per team and only 3 teams had more than the Reds' 4.

It doesn't take more than 1 or 2 big warts (Heisey's age and lack of a standout skill, for example) to keep you off the list. If you were to do 101-200, I think you'd find 5 or 6 Reds. Only 9 of the top 100 were 24 or older and only 14 were 6th round picks or later.

Sea Ray
02-23-2010, 03:02 PM
With Wood, his lack of an above average fastball probably doomed him. BA tends to give a little more weight to a fastball than the whole package.

I think you're right but LH starting pitchers are rarely flame throwers. That's what sets Chapman apart from the rest. For every Randy Johnson there's generally two or three guys like Tom Glavine, Jamie Moyer, Cliff Lee and Andy Pettitte.

nemesis
02-23-2010, 03:10 PM
I'm more surprised by Wood's being left off than Heisey's. Doesn't mean I think Wood's a top 100 prospect but he is a lefty who had about as good a season as any starter in the minors last year.

Actually he was the MiLB AA pitcher of the year. It would count for something ya'd think...

Wood is vastly underrated IMO. He has produced solid if not spectacular numbers at ever single level of the minors.

His rookie league stats were:

2 - 0 with a 1.29 ERA in 14 games and 49 Innings

His first full season stats at Dayton were:

27 starts 140 Innings 3.66 ERA

On a Pitching staff that included Cueto, Fisher, Ondrusek, Valiquette and Jeff Stevens who brought us Phillips...

The lineup included Bruce, Denove, Tatum, Janish and Rosales.

Alot of 40 Man Roster talent on that 2006 team.

IMO the 90 Inning jump in workload from 2005 to 2006 is what did his arm in for those 2 years in a row.

In 2007 he started 12 games and had a very weak line of:

12 starts 46 Inn and a 4.86 ERA

In 2008 he did very well as a repeat in Sarasota...

9 starts 47 Innings 2.70 ERA

We all know how bad he was at Chattanooga...

17 starts 80 Innings 7.09 ERA

Arm fatigue lead to bad mechanics and lead to quite a few MPH lost off his fastball and not giving his Plus Plus change the same affect.

One more year removed from arm surgery in 2009 and a retooled delivery added 3 to 5MPH back to his fastball (88 to 91) made his change more effective. Lead to a record setting AA season of:

19 starts 119 Innings 1.21 ERA

Followed by a solid AAA debut:

8 starts 49 Innings 3.14 ERA

I really believe he became a pitcher last year for the first time in his career. I see no reason with the offense he has behind him this year in AAA as well as other AAA Veterans in the Rotation with him (Lehr, Lecure, Klinker, Maloney) He won't feel the pressure of being an ace and will be able to relax and instead of trying to be too fine with his pitches, he can just pitch.

His stuff translates well IMO to the Reds staff in 2011.

With 4 fireball arms in Cueto, Bailey, Volquez and Chapman... a soft tossing lefty could be a perfect compliment to the staff. Think Tom Browning on a staff of Rijo, Jackson and Armstrong.

A rotation of:

Cueto
Volquez
Chapman
Bailey
Wood

has the "potential" to develop into a top 3 rotation in baseball.

dougdirt
02-23-2010, 03:29 PM
nemesis, its more about what its believed you will do than what you have done. Travis Wood is an excellent prospect who has put together several strong seasons. He has had some health issues though that work against him in rankings like this. His ceiling also is theoretically limited because of his size and fastball (as we all know, guys can outperform their "scouting" ceiling in terms of actual results ie: guys without #1 stuff actually performing like #1's - Cliff Lee is a good example of this). Since Wood doesn't project out to be a TOR guy or even a #2, he is going to get overlooked on lists like this because Top 100 prospects are generally the elite of the elite. Wood is likely a Top 150 guy, which still puts him in the Top 1% of all minor leaguers.

Sea Ray
02-23-2010, 03:34 PM
... he is going to get overlooked on lists like this because Top 100 prospects are generally the elite of the elite. Wood is likely a Top 150 guy, which still puts him in the Top 1% of all minor leaguers.

Really? You mean there are 15,000 guys in the minors? That sounds high to me. That means each major league team would have 500 minor league players or 20 teams with rosters of 25. Are there really that many guys in the minors?

Caveat Emperor
02-23-2010, 03:47 PM
Really? You mean there are 15,000 guys in the minors? That sounds high to me. That means each major league team would have 500 minor league players or 20 teams with rosters of 25. Are there really that many guys in the minors?

Knock it off.

dougdirt
02-23-2010, 03:50 PM
Really? You mean there are 15,000 guys in the minors? That sounds high to me. That means each major league team would have 500 minor league players or 20 teams with rosters of 25. Are there really that many guys in the minors?

The Reds invited 153 players to MILB spring training - not counting guys invited to ST with the big club, so lets just say 170 guys. We can figure other teams are similar. So we are at 170 times 30 = 5100 players. Then we look at the Dominican Summer League and Venezuelan Summer League and have an additional 40 teams of about 35-40 players on each team (active and inactive) and we are adding in another 1500 players, so we are at about 6600 players. 150 divided by 6600 = 2.3%. So I SLIGHTLY exaggerated. Still, we are talking about absolute cream of the crop guys at this point in the Top 150.

Sea Ray
02-23-2010, 04:10 PM
The Reds invited 153 players to MILB spring training - not counting guys invited to ST with the big club, so lets just say 170 guys. We can figure other teams are similar. So we are at 170 times 30 = 5100 players. Then we look at the Dominican Summer League and Venezuelan Summer League and have an additional 40 teams of about 35-40 players on each team (active and inactive) and we are adding in another 1500 players, so we are at about 6600 players. 150 divided by 6600 = 2.3%. So I SLIGHTLY exaggerated. Still, we are talking about absolute cream of the crop guys at this point in the Top 150.


OK. I agree with your bottomline that guys in the top 150 are cream of the crop but disagree that rounding 6600 to 15000 constitutes a slight exaggeration. For the life of me I couldn't come up with even half of that figure.

Sea Ray
02-23-2010, 04:11 PM
Knock it off.

:confused:

dougdirt
02-23-2010, 04:29 PM
OK. I agree with your bottomline that guys in the top 150 are cream of the crop but disagree that rounding 6600 to 15000 constitutes a slight exaggeration. For the life of me I couldn't come up with even half of that figure.

The difference between 1 and 2% is incredibly small.

camisadelgolf
02-23-2010, 07:33 PM
The difference between 1 and 2% is incredibly small.
Not if you look at it from a percentage perspective.

AtomicDumpling
02-23-2010, 09:12 PM
Seems like the experts are really down on Yonder Alonso after his injury caused his stats to fall last year. ESPN had him at #76 and now BA has him at #45. I think they are way too pessimistic on him. In my mind he is still in the prospect-class of Justin Smoak and Logan Morrisson, who are both ranked much higher. They even have first basemen Chris Carter and Freddie Freeman ranked ahead of Alonso. Supposedly they base their rankings solely on talent , skill and projection without taking into account whether a player is blocked at his position by a star player. I think they are underrating Alonso. In my opinion a ranking of about 25 would be appropriate.

dougdirt
02-23-2010, 09:21 PM
Seems like the experts are really down on Yonder Alonso after his injury caused his stats to fall last year. ESPN had him at #76 and now BA has him at #45. I think they are way too pessimistic on him. In my mind he is still in the prospect-class of Justin Smoak and Logan Morrisson, who are both ranked much higher. They even have first basemen Chris Carter and Freddie Freeman ranked ahead of Alonso. Supposedly they base their rankings solely on talent , skill and projection without taking into account whether a player is blocked at his position by a star player. I think they are underrating Alonso. In my opinion a ranking of about 25 would be appropriate.

Pretty much. Midseason, while tearing up the FSL, he was ranked 15th. Then he has an injury that everyone and their mother knows saps your power for about a year, and he falls 30 spots down the list. However Justin Smoak goes out and slugs .444 in the Texas and Pacific Coast Leagues (known to be very hitter friendly) and gets a pass on his injury. This one confuses me.

OnBaseMachine
02-24-2010, 03:34 PM
John (Somerset, NJ)

Jim, what is the ceiling on LLWS hero Todd Frazier? Solid MLB regular or better?

Jim Callis (2:46 PM)

Solid regular is the best bet, but I like him and he has the potential to be an occasional all-star.

tim (cincinnati)

does Jay Bruce start to reach his potential this year??

Jim Callis (2:59 PM)

Yep.

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/30988/mlb-with-jim-callis

DannyB
03-02-2010, 07:15 AM
Someone else's list

http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/01/25/the-top-100-prospects-of-2010-1-25/

36. AROLDIS CHAPMAN (LHP), REDS

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Age: 21 | Height: 6-4 | Weight: 180
2009 Stats: N/A
Finished '09: N/A (defected from Cuba in July 2009)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Skinny: Chapman could easily be in the top five, but at this point how can we really be sure? Much of Chapman's game is still a mystery, but if reports are to believed, and he can consistently produce that type of huge velocity, he'll be moving up this list in a hurry. Right now, he makes it purely on expectations.

56. Todd Frazier (SS) 23 Reds Louisville (Triple-A)
57. Yonder Alonso (1B) 22 Reds Carolina (Double-A)

61. Mike Leake (RHP) 22 Reds N/A

Frankie Piliere spent the last three seasons working as a scout, most recently in the professional scouting department for the Texas Rangers in 2009. He now serves as the National Baseball Analyst here at FanHouse.

HayPay
03-02-2010, 10:56 AM
I think Yonder's rating is down untill the Reds trade him or untill he learns another position.

dougdirt
03-02-2010, 01:08 PM
I think Yonder's rating is down untill the Reds trade him or untill he learns another position.

Prospect rankings don't take into account that a player is blocked at the MLB level.

OnBaseMachine
03-02-2010, 01:27 PM
I'm sitting here watching the Braves/Mets game on MLB Network. Jason Heyward just batted in the first inning - man he is impressive. He worked a walk in a first plate appearance, laying off a couple close pitches that most hitters would chase. The 2006 Reds won 80 games, the 2006 Braves won 79 games. What could have been. If only the Reds had lost one more game. Imagine having Jason Heyward in LF, Drew Stubbs in CF, and Jay Bruce in RF. Two potential superstars in the corner outfield spots, and three plus defenders.

I love everything I've read and seen from Heyward. I know this is a ridiculous statement this early in his career, but if he stays healthy he's probably going to the Hall of Fame. He's got that type of talent, IMO.

krm1580
03-02-2010, 04:26 PM
I'm sitting here watching the Braves/Mets game on MLB Network. Jason Heyward just batted in the first inning - man he is impressive. He worked a walk in a first plate appearance, laying off a couple close pitches that most hitters would chase. The 2006 Reds won 80 games, the 2006 Braves won 79 games. What could have been. If only the Reds had lost one more game. Imagine having Jason Heyward in LF, Drew Stubbs in CF, and Jay Bruce in RF. Two potential superstars in the corner outfield spots, and three plus defenders.

I love everything I've read and seen from Heyward. I know this is a ridiculous statement this early in his career, but if he stays healthy he's probably going to the Hall of Fame. He's got that type of talent, IMO.

Granted there are significant pitfalls between a 20 year old rookie and the Hall of Fame but all things being equal I would probably agree with you.

The guy has shown exceptional contact rates and strike zone judgement at a very early age. You throw in his power potential and you could have the makings of a really special bat.

Jones1
03-03-2010, 06:52 AM
I wasn't. Heisey is not a spring chicken, doesn't have inspiring tools and has had 1 great stretch of 250 at bats in AA.

With Wood, his lack of an above average fastball probably doomed him. BA tends to give a little more weight to a fastball than the whole package.

A 298 average in 1,700 Ab's over a 4 season span in the minors isn't an impressive stretch? Thats not even taking into account his 369 OBP and 830 OPS. For instance compare that to Joey Votto's minor league stats in three years, take away the power numbers they are very similar and we all know how he turned out.

Maybe I'm biased here because I know him, but he gets no respect on this board or in genera. I guess you have to watch him play a few games to understand how good he's gonna be. When he makes the club this spring I think you'll understand what Im talking.

edabbs44
03-03-2010, 10:42 AM
A 298 average in 1,700 Ab's over a 4 season span in the minors isn't an impressive stretch? Thats not even taking into account his 369 OBP and 830 OPS. For instance compare that to Joey Votto's minor league stats in three years, take away the power numbers they are very similar and we all know how he turned out.

Maybe I'm biased here because I know him, but he gets no respect on this board or in genera. I guess you have to watch him play a few games to understand how good he's gonna be. When he makes the club this spring I think you'll understand what Im talking.

You might be biased.

dougdirt
03-03-2010, 01:02 PM
A 298 average in 1,700 Ab's over a 4 season span in the minors isn't an impressive stretch? Thats not even taking into account his 369 OBP and 830 OPS. For instance compare that to Joey Votto's minor league stats in three years, take away the power numbers they are very similar and we all know how he turned out.

Maybe I'm biased here because I know him, but he gets no respect on this board or in genera. I guess you have to watch him play a few games to understand how good he's gonna be. When he makes the club this spring I think you'll understand what Im talking.

You didn't seem to address a single thing I said about him though. I said he didn't have a single inspiring tool. And he doesn't. Heisey has 4 solid tools and an above average one with his speed. That makes him a pretty good player. But scouts and scouting reports aren't going to glow on guys that are good at everything but not really great at anything and on prospect lists that is going to hurt a guy's chance of being ranked high.

As for watching Heisey play.... I have seen him play about 100 times.

As far as his impressive stats, I would argue that he has been good all the way up the ladder, but he was never really impressive until he got to AA this season. When he left, he went back to being a good player rather than the great one his numbers in AA suggested. Its not a rip on the guy, he can play ball. He just isn't going to be a super star like his AA numbers may have suggested when looking at them alone.

Mario-Rijo
03-03-2010, 02:04 PM
A 298 average in 1,700 Ab's over a 4 season span in the minors isn't an impressive stretch? Thats not even taking into account his 369 OBP and 830 OPS. For instance compare that to Joey Votto's minor league stats in three years, take away the power numbers they are very similar and we all know how he turned out.

Maybe I'm biased here because I know him, but he gets no respect on this board or in genera. I guess you have to watch him play a few games to understand how good he's gonna be. When he makes the club this spring I think you'll understand what Im talking.

Oh he gets respect all right, some would argue and say he gets too much. Of course I am one who tends to give him plenty of respect, at least since he made his adjustment last season. But all that said his talent level isn't that of a star and that is the list we are discussing here. Then again you make a fair point about Votto, no one thought he'd be this good. Maybe that is why some are waiting for the other shoe to drop on him, I'm not so sure it will. Of course the difference in power numbers is something you can't just take away from Votto, that is part of why he is a budding star. Likewise a good reason Heisey should be a solid regular but not a star.

OnBaseMachine
03-04-2010, 02:25 AM
Baseball America's writers held a five round (11 picks per round) mock draft featuring the top prospects in the game. Three Reds were chosen in the top 55:

3 30 Cooper Aroldis Chapman LHP CIN
He may be riskier than some other picks around here, but his stuff can be as good as anyone not named Strasburg.

4 34 Glassey Mike Leake RHP CIN
I may have reached a little for Leake, but with the back-to-back picks, I had to grab guys I really wanted. I love Leake's combination of stuff, command and makeup. He's a safe bet to make it to the big leagues quickly and has No. 2 upside.

5 50 Fitt Todd Frazier OF/2B/3B CIN
Frazier can really hit, and he's a gamer. No matter what position he lands at, he'll produce in the majors for a long time—and soon.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2010/269596.html

Jones1
03-07-2010, 06:03 AM
http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2010/03/06/high-on-heisey/

Scouts tend to agree with me about Heisey!

I was chatting with a scout today when he pointed to Chris Heisey.

“They better not let that kid play much or somebody’s going to lose their job,” he said.

What he meant was Heisey is good enough to win a starting outfield. He’s solid defensively at all three position. He can run — 21 steals in 24 tries last year. He’s hit .286, .295, .291 and .314 in his four years of pro ball. He doesn’t strike out a ton — 257 vs. 165 walks in the 1,698 minor league at-bats.

He’s still a probably a long shot with only 245 Triple-A at-bats. But he’s worth watching.