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TRF
02-23-2010, 01:33 PM
I was wondering who everyone thinks will be the #5 starter out of ST this year? Not a poll, and not who you WANT to be the #5, but who you think will get/win the job. It's definitely up for grabs on the surface. Here are the candidates:

Matt Maloney
Aroldis Chapman
Kip Wells
Justin Lehr
Micah Owings
Travis Wood
Mike Leake

I don't believe for a second that Lincoln is a candidate.

So who do YOU think wins the job?

Tom Servo
02-23-2010, 01:35 PM
I think Maloney takes it.

savafan
02-23-2010, 01:37 PM
I'm going with the darkhorse Chapman

TRF
02-23-2010, 01:42 PM
remember, explain your choice

savafan
02-23-2010, 01:44 PM
I just feel that the way Price gushes about Chapman, and how easier it would be for him to acclimate in Cincy, that he has more of an edge than we think

Degenerate39
02-23-2010, 01:46 PM
I think Wood will have a good spring training and earn the job for about half the season then Chapman takes over. A poll would also be nice

BRM
02-23-2010, 02:00 PM
remember, explain your choice

Is "gut feeling" a good enough explanation? ;)

Homer Bailey
02-23-2010, 02:03 PM
I just feel that the way Price gushes about Chapman, and how easier it would be for him to acclimate in Cincy, that he has more of an edge than we think

Based on Chapmans contract, I can think of millions of reasons why he won't be up before mid-May.

I'm going to go with Maloney. I think Owings makes the team in the bullpen/PH role, while Maloney comes in with a nice spring and takes the spot. Maybe the Reds can finagle the schedule the right way so that Maloney starts most of his games on the road? Is that even possible? I figure for any position, it would be the 5th starter that could possibly do that.

savafan
02-23-2010, 02:03 PM
Is "gut feeling" a good enough explanation? ;)

It is if you can provide documented proof of your gut being right in the past. :D

savafan
02-23-2010, 02:04 PM
Based on Chapmans contract, I can think of millions of reasons why he won't be up before mid-May.



Based on this team needing a winning season in the not too distant future, I can think of 1 reason why Chapman's contract shouldn't stand in the way.

Homer Bailey
02-23-2010, 02:07 PM
Based on this team needing a winning season in the not too distant future, I can think of 1 reason why Chapman's contract shouldn't stand in the way.

What if it could end up costing the team $15 million? $15 million for 5 or 6 starts?

savafan
02-23-2010, 02:09 PM
What if it could end up costing the team $15 million? $15 million for 5 or 6 starts?

I don't make those decisions, but we'll have to see in the spring if those who do feel that 5 or 6 wins could be the difference in the standings at the end of the year.

Degenerate39
02-23-2010, 02:10 PM
What if it could end up costing the team $15 million? $15 million for 5 or 6 starts?

I'll have to agree with you on this one. I think any of those starters could handle the 5th spot for 2 months while Chapman gets a little extra work in the minors.

Bumstead
02-23-2010, 02:13 PM
I think Maloney will be handed the job if he pitches adequately during the spring. The Reds have to find out if he is good enough to invest in long term...of course it also gives Wood another 3 months to a full season in AAA. Maloney could be trade bait by June if Wood is pitching really well at AAA.

Bum

OnBaseMachine
02-23-2010, 02:13 PM
I think Matt Maloney will win the fifth starter job out of spring training but Chapman will force his way into the majors by June.

dougdirt
02-23-2010, 02:16 PM
I don't make those decisions, but we'll have to see in the spring if those who do feel that 5 or 6 wins could be the difference in the standings at the end of the year.

Unless you think whoever gets the #5 spot is going to be the worst pitcher in baseball and goes 0-6 while never being in a game, and Chapman will win a CY at age 22 and go 6-0 with no game ever being in question, then the odds are Chapman vs any other #5 guy over 6 games is probably only 2 wins at most.

savafan
02-23-2010, 02:20 PM
Unless you think whoever gets the #5 spot is going to be the worst pitcher in baseball and goes 0-6 while never being in a game, and Chapman will win a CY at age 22 and go 6-0 with no game ever being in question, then the odds are Chapman vs any other #5 guy over 6 games is probably only 2 wins at most.

Well...I like to dream big. :D

HokieRed
02-23-2010, 02:36 PM
I think it's Maloney's to lose and he probably will pitch well enough in spring not to lose it. I actually think Lehr at this point has better command and probably would be a more effective option than Maloney. Probably right now Wells is actually the best pitcher of the lot and should get it. I'd guess the contractual situation with Chapman is such that we won't see him unless we're really in the thick of things in midsummer and he looks like the potential difference. I've got to see more AAA success from Wood before I become fully a believer. Owings' best role will be, IMHO, in the pen.

bucksfan2
02-23-2010, 02:43 PM
I think it does depend on the spring. If no one really separates themselves from each other I can see Owings get the spot. Here is why.

I think the Reds want someone to hold down the 5th spot until either Chapman or Leake are ready to go. Chapman by early June and Leake hopefully around the same time. If its a matter of 6 starts, Owings value is the highest as a starter because of his ability to PH 4 days a week. I really don't think the difference between Owings and the rest of the candidates is more than a win or two, and Owings has the ability to make that up with one swing of the bat.

If the 5th spot is being counted on for about 10 or so starts then I would go with Maloney. I think Lehr is a nice story and I would want him to be added to the organization as a pitching instructor. Wells does nothing for me and I don't know if Wood is ready yet.

Ron Madden
02-23-2010, 02:49 PM
I'll say Maloney. Because they may feel they need a LH in the rotation.

reds44
02-23-2010, 06:11 PM
Whoever "wins" the spot is only going to be keeping the seat warm for Chapman.

VR
02-23-2010, 06:49 PM
Oh for the days of ruminating over Todd Van Poppel, Jimmy Haynes, Eric Milton, Jimmy Anderson, Jose Acevedo, Paul Wilson, Ryan Dempster, Brian Reith, Elmer Dessens, Jeff Austin, Joey Hamilton, Ramon Ortiz, Luke Hudson et al to find TOP of the rotation guys.

The list for this year's #5 has more quality than that one.

:beerme:

Guacarock
02-23-2010, 07:33 PM
Whoever "wins" the spot is only going to be keeping the seat warm for Chapman.

That might be. But if the Reds are out of the running by June or July, it's likely they might deal off Arroyo, Harang or both of them. In that case, Chapman could be called up at the same time that the 5th starter remains in the rotation. When Volquez returns in August, that's when the 5th starter better start looking over their shoulders. By then the rotation could be: One holdover veteran, Bailey, Cueto, Chapman and Volquez, leaving the "5th starter" squeezed out.

Blitz Dorsey
02-23-2010, 07:45 PM
Travis Wood. He's ready after tearing up AA and pitching well in AAA last year. Big-league arm and I like the idea of having a lefty in the rotation. And I like Wood more than Maloney, it's that simple.

Rojo
02-23-2010, 07:50 PM
Maloney -- Rick Mahler principle -- yakkers kill in the spring.

Chip R
02-23-2010, 08:12 PM
Maloney -- Rick Mahler principle -- yakkers kill in the spring.

But in Arizona, the air is thinner and breaking pitches don't break that much. We shouldn't be over-excited about the offense and pessimistic about the pitching during ST.

dunner13
02-23-2010, 08:21 PM
Im going with the sleeper pick Mike Leake. He is the most polished and I think will show in spring that he is ready for the majors. I think chapman will arrive in the majors by june.

IslandRed
02-23-2010, 08:30 PM
I'll just say this -- this is the best I've felt about the Reds' starting pitching depth since I was old enough to pay attention, and that goes back to the Big Red Machine.

OnBaseMachine
02-23-2010, 08:36 PM
As I said earlier, I think Matt Maloney will win the fifth starter job, even though I think Chapman will pitch well enough to make the team but will be sent to Louisville - or Carolina - for the first couple months because of his contract. But I agree with dunner13 - I think Mike Leake is a serious sleeper. I'm going to go out on a limb here and predict he has a very good spring and makes it tough on the Reds to send him to the minors. I think he'll be in the mix until the end but ultimately, the Reds will send him to the minors for some seasoning.

buckeyenut
02-23-2010, 09:13 PM
Whoever "wins" the spot is only going to be keeping the seat warm for Chapman.

Not sure that is definite. More likely, they are keeping a seat warm for Edison.

11larkin11
02-23-2010, 09:14 PM
Who I'm rooting for-Wood
Who I think will win-Maloney

Captain Hook
02-23-2010, 09:36 PM
I think it will be Owings.

Unless it's Chapman the Reds are going to pick whoever pitches best in ST games.Owings did extremely well in those games last year and I expect him to do the same this year.I also expect to see him replaced in the rotation by late May.

Captain Hook
02-23-2010, 09:41 PM
Once the season starts enter "by the end of May" in front of this threads name and you have over 300 replies on that topic.

Ron Madden
02-24-2010, 03:49 AM
I went with Maloney but I cant help but root for Sam Lecure.

The guy has had more than his share of mountains to climb. The highest one away from the field of play.

mth123
02-24-2010, 04:29 AM
My wish is for Kip Wells to open as 5th starter, Matt Maloney and a couple of the lesser kids that are logjammed (say Ondrusek and Valaika) are dealt for a LH Hitting LF with some power, Nix is sent packing, Owings goes to the pen, Lincoln to the DL or DFA and the AAA rotation has Wood, Lehr, Chapman, and Lecure with Leake in AA.

What will probably happen is Maloney is the 5th starter. Owings and Lincoln both go to the pen and the AAA rotation includes Wood, Lehr, Wells, Chapman and Lecure. Leake opens in AA.