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dougdirt
02-23-2010, 10:38 PM
Our old buddy Justin (does he still post here?) had this article from the Hardball Times: (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/minor-league-run-environments/)
Minor league run environments vary substantially from league to league. As a result, any time we evaluate a minor leaguer's hitting or pitching stats, we need to consider the context of those performances. Alex Pedicini had a brief but nice series at Hardball Times breaking down these league differences, but I wanted to take a deeper look at run environments, including an investigation of how they would model using Base Runs.

More on Base Runs later. Let's start with a graph looking at how the run environments of the minor leagues (and major leagues) vary:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/images/uploads/LeagueSurvey.png

You can read more at the link above, but the chart shows a lot.

The biggest thing that jumped out to me is that the Reds up until this year, have played in 5 of the 7 most run depressing leagues in the minor leagues.

REDblooded
02-23-2010, 11:50 PM
nice... the sortable chart in the article is a good feature...

Kingspoint
02-24-2010, 04:26 AM
Other than the Appalachian League, the further West you go the easier it is to score runs.

Is it because the air gets drier or do the parks start shrinking?

It's kind of hard to score runs in Safeco, Petco, and Dodger stadium, too.

I'm not making any inferences here, just playing with graph.

redsmetz
02-24-2010, 08:39 AM
Looking at the numbers for the Pioneer League, the Mustangs had a horrible year as I recall (24-52), scoring 315 runs (4.14 Runs Per Game). That is dramatically below the league average there. Any ideas on what accounts for that and is there cause for greater concern with that crop of players? Or was there something underlying those numbers and the team's performance?

camisadelgolf
02-24-2010, 11:10 AM
Looking at the numbers for the Pioneer League, the Mustangs had a horrible year as I recall (24-52), scoring 315 runs (4.14 Runs Per Game). That is dramatically below the league average there. Any ideas on what accounts for that and is there cause for greater concern with that crop of players? Or was there something underlying those numbers and the team's performance?
There's actually a big concern about the level of talent the Reds have in terms of position prospects who came from that class.

dougdirt
02-24-2010, 11:52 AM
Looking at the numbers for the Pioneer League, the Mustangs had a horrible year as I recall (24-52), scoring 315 runs (4.14 Runs Per Game). That is dramatically below the league average there. Any ideas on what accounts for that and is there cause for greater concern with that crop of players? Or was there something underlying those numbers and the team's performance?
Their first three picks didn't go there and the fourth was a reliever. So from a talent standpoint offensively, the team wasn't helped at all by any top end draft picks that they had gotten in more recent years. Top it off with the most advanced hitter, Josh Fellhauer was sent to Dayton instead (where he hit pretty darn well too). With the way that the draft worked out, that team just didn't have much offense to work with.

mdccclxix
06-06-2010, 09:11 PM
I thought this deserved a bump as a point of reference. It's been over 2 months and some results are in. Is it just the International league that's hurting Frazier, Cozart and Alonso their first time around? Worth considering anyway. Again, great reference for sizing up what the player's stats all mean.

GOYA
06-07-2010, 01:38 PM
Is it just the International league that's hurting Frazier, Cozart and Alonso their first time around?

I would have to say no. It's their lack of adjustment to better pitching. And of those 3, Cozart is heads above the other two. His average still isn't great but he's doing a better job at the plate and is MLB ready at SS. If Frazier wasn't doing so badly, there would be tons of hand wringing going on here about Yonder. Neither are performing near their expected levels. OPS of .674 and .601, Yonder is the .601, are way below where these guys should be in the IL. I'd look at what they do in July and August and forget about everything before that.