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View Full Version : Does Bruce have the potential to hit 50 Hrs?



icehole3
02-24-2010, 04:48 AM
I think with GAB and his power, he has 40-50 HR power, remember before he got hurt he was in the top 5 in HRs. Im going to say he hits 47 HRs this year, what say you?

Ron Madden
02-24-2010, 04:56 AM
I think with GAB and his power, he has 40-50 HR power, remember before he got hurt he was in the top 5 in HRs. Im going to say he hits 47 HRs this year, what say you?


I'm sure he has the ability to hit 50 HRs. but it's pretty hard to do hitting 6th or 7th in the batting order.

Nasty_Boy
02-24-2010, 07:09 AM
Im gonna say 34 for this season, but I do believe that 50s is possible in the not too distant future. The more he grows and becomes confident at the plate, along with moving up in the order after Dusty leaves and the protection guys like Alonso and Frazier can provide could very well lead to Bruce hitting that many HRs in 3 or 4 years. I think he's going to become a consistent 35 HR guy with a handfull of 40 HR seasons with the high side of a 50 HR season.

reds1869
02-24-2010, 07:24 AM
He has the potential for sure, but to reach that mark he has to improve dramatically against lefties. I picture him more as a consistent 30 HR guy who occasionally reaches 40...and that is a very good thing for the Reds.

bucksfan2
02-24-2010, 08:36 AM
In the post-PED era 50 HR's likely be will lead both leagues. I don't know if Bruce has that power. I see him more around a 35-45 HR guy. I think he has the ability to have great power, just needs to become better at the plate.

mth123
02-24-2010, 10:04 AM
The sky is the limit for Bruce, but last season I saw a still young kid who fell into the trap of trying to be the savior and hit 5 run Homers on every swing. The results weren't pretty. I wish the Reds had other players to carry the load for a couple years while Bruce grows up and establishes himself as an annual MVP candidate.

He's going to need to really be mature to overcome the temptation. At risk of incurring the wrath of Redszone, I do think that Dusty may be a pretty good manager for a kid in his situation to have.

Spring~Fields
02-24-2010, 10:17 AM
The sky is the limit for Bruce,

He's going to need to really be mature to overcome the temptation. At risk of incurring the wrath of Redszone, I do think that Dusty may be a pretty good manager for a kid in his situation to have.

Gee, I just remember a Jay Bruce that always seemed to do so well before he met Dusty, his first call up, or after he has been away from a Dusty and came back from rehab or injury. Probably just a coincidence. With a young man like Jay Bruce who has had a time in baseball of always being able to hit left or right handed pitching until his days with Dusty, I always wonder if it was “baseball luck” or baseball instructions.

Well no wrath coming from here, but, just a wait and see thought.

nate
02-24-2010, 10:31 AM
The sky is the limit for Bruce, but last season I saw a still young kid who fell into the trap of trying to be the savior and hit 5 run Homers on every swing. The results weren't pretty. I wish the Reds had other players to carry the load for a couple years while Bruce grows up and establishes himself as an annual MVP candidate.

He's going to need to really be mature to overcome the temptation. At risk of incurring the wrath of Redszone, I do think that Dusty may be a pretty good manager for a kid in his situation to have.

I don't think "Redszone" (who/whatever that is) has a problem with how Dusty handles his players in the clubhouse. I know I don't and I think that's his strength. My problem is with how he handles the game in the dugout.

He's be a great bench coach.

Spring~Fields
02-24-2010, 10:36 AM
I don't think "Redszone" (who/whatever that is) has a problem with how Dusty handles his players in the clubhouse. I know I don't and I think that's his strength. My problem is with how he handles the game in the dugout.
He's be a great bench coach.

Nate have you ever wondered if maybe Jay Bruce should be platooned for if a left handed pitcher is out there? I mean to give the young guy some better chances to succeed as he would against right handed pitching, growing in confidence, and to take some pressure off him, while he gets some more time in.

mth123
02-24-2010, 10:40 AM
Gee, I just remember a Jay Bruce that always seemed to do so well before he met Dusty, his first call up, or after he has been away from a Dusty and came back from rehab or injury. Probably just a coincidence. With a young man like Jay Bruce who has had a time in baseball of always being able to hit left or right handed pitching until his days with Dusty, I always wonder if it was “baseball luck” or baseball instructions.

Well no wrath coming from here, but, just a wait and see thought.

I think its the same problem as with Bailey. He's a kid who hasn't finished growing up yet who everyone expects to be fully cooked at age 22. Being asked to be the main man on a team starved for production is pretty much pressure on a young guy like that.

Johnny Bench did it age 22, but had a couple years being one of the guys first before he busted loose. Bruce and Bailey were expected to be top guys immediately and I think those expectations hurt both of them.

One overlooked aspect of time in the minors is that it allows a kid time to grow up. Most 22 year olds are still kids and can't really handle the pressure. Getting called up at a young age exposes them and they alter what they normally do in response. It happened with Bailey and we saw it last year with Bruce. I'd like to see somebody else shoulder that burden. I know it would have eaten me alive at age 22 and I was fairly mature at that age.

Spring~Fields
02-24-2010, 10:50 AM
I think its the same problem as with Bailey. He's a kid who hasn't finished growing up yet who everyone expects to be fully cooked at age 22. Being asked to be the main man on a team starved for production is pretty much pressure on a young guy like that.

Johnny Bench did it age 22, but had a couple years being one of the guys first before he busted loose. Bruce and Bailey were expected to be top guys immediately and I think those expectations hurt both of them.

One overlooked aspect of time in the minors is that it allows a kid time to grow up. Most 22 year olds are still kids and can't really handle the pressure. Getting called up at a young age exposes them and they alter what they normally do in response. It happened with Bailey and we saw it last year with Bruce. I'd like to see somebody else shoulder that burden. I know it would have eaten me alive at age 22 and I was fairly mature at that age.

I completely agree with your every word here. Then I turn to the thought of, who is it that allows or enables such pressures on this young man with such obvious youth and fantastic talent and skills. Starting the kid at leading off, batting third, all over the place and against lefties that have given him problems at this level throughout his short time in the majors. I don't think that Jay Bruce has been given the right amount of time or place to make his transition to being a major league player a success, certainly haven't seen pressures taken off him. That is why I don't agree with your first comment that this manager is a good manager for him.

nate
02-24-2010, 11:00 AM
Nate have you ever wondered if maybe Jay Bruce should be platooned for if a left handed pitcher is out there? I mean to give the young guy some better chances to succeed as he would against right handed pitching, growing in confidence, and to take some pressure off him, while he gets some more time in.

No.

mth123
02-24-2010, 11:15 AM
I completely agree with your every word here. Then I turn to the thought of, who is it that allows or enables such pressures on this young man with such obvious youth and fantastic talent and skills. Starting the kid at leading off, batting third, all over the place and against lefties that have given him problems at this level throughout his short time in the majors. I don't think that Jay Bruce has been given the right amount of time or place to make his transition to being a major league player a success, certainly haven't seen pressures taken off him. That is why I don't agree with your first comment that this manager is a good manager for him.

Personally, I think the front office allowed it by dealing off their most productive hitter of the decade for table scraps and instead of replacing his production went out and got Willy Taveras to be the veteran in the OF.

edabbs44
02-24-2010, 11:22 AM
Nate have you ever wondered if maybe Jay Bruce should be platooned for if a left handed pitcher is out there? I mean to give the young guy some better chances to succeed as he would against right handed pitching, growing in confidence, and to take some pressure off him, while he gets some more time in.

I would try and time his days off for when tougher LHPs are on the mound, but I wouldn't platoon him at this stage. Not in a million years.

RANDY IN INDY
02-24-2010, 11:23 AM
Does Bruce have the potential to hit 50 Hrs?


Is Ed "Too Tall" Jones, too tall?

Seriously, I think the 50 homer mark is going to start being less prevalent.

edabbs44
02-24-2010, 11:23 AM
Gee, I just remember a Jay Bruce that always seemed to do so well before he met Dusty, his first call up, or after he has been away from a Dusty and came back from rehab or injury. Probably just a coincidence. With a young man like Jay Bruce who has had a time in baseball of always being able to hit left or right handed pitching until his days with Dusty, I always wonder if it was “baseball luck” or baseball instructions.

Well no wrath coming from here, but, just a wait and see thought.

Maybe it isn't the coaches at the MLB level that are giving him trouble at this point in his career, it could just be the level of pitching he is facing.

OnBaseMachine
02-24-2010, 11:24 AM
I would try and time his days off for when tougher LHPs are on the mound, but I wouldn't platoon him at this stage. Not in a million years.

Agreed.

As for Bruce's power, I think he's more of a 35-45 HR guy ... which will still put him among the league leaders every year.

RANDY IN INDY
02-24-2010, 11:25 AM
Maybe it isn't the coaches at the MLB level that are giving him trouble at this point in his career, it could just be the level of pitching he is facing.

And they're learning where his "holes" are. It's up to Bruce to make the adjustments. That's what being a successful big leaguer is all about.

RedsManRick
02-24-2010, 11:30 AM
I think Bruce does have the power to do it, but I don't think it's very likely to happen. I think a good comp for who he might look like offensively is Lance Berkman. Of course, unlike Berkman, he doesn't have the benefit of switch hitting. How he hits lefties will playing a big role in determining his ceiling.

mth123
02-24-2010, 11:34 AM
I think Bruce does have the power to do it, but I don't think it's very likely to happen. I think a good comp for who he might look like offensively is Lance Berkman. Of course, unlike Berkman, he doesn't have the benefit of switch hitting. How he hits lefties will playing a big role in determining his ceiling.

I think that's a pretty good comp but Berkman walked a lot more than I think Bruce will. Too bad the Reds don't have some guys like Bagwell and Biggio to carry the load while Bruce grows into it.

edabbs44
02-24-2010, 12:53 PM
I think Bruce does have the power to do it, but I don't think it's very likely to happen. I think a good comp for who he might look like offensively is Lance Berkman. Of course, unlike Berkman, he doesn't have the benefit of switch hitting. How he hits lefties will playing a big role in determining his ceiling.

Berkman's success is heavy skewed towards his hitting RHP.

Mario-Rijo
02-24-2010, 03:19 PM
I think Bruce does have the power to do it, but I don't think it's very likely to happen. I think a good comp for who he might look like offensively is Lance Berkman. Of course, unlike Berkman, he doesn't have the benefit of switch hitting. How he hits lefties will playing a big role in determining his ceiling.

I don't see the comp, IMO Bruce is likely to hit for less avg., more power. As for 50 HR's I think he has the ability to reach it but he'll need everything to go right IMO.

RedsManRick
02-24-2010, 03:29 PM
FWIW, I think that Bruce's average and OBP will both come up in the years to come as he finishes developing. I think he has the ability to be more selective at the plate. Combined with his power, that's a recipe for more walks and better contact as he chases fewer pitches out of the zone. Sammy Sosa during his peak is a good example of this.

Vada Pinson Fan
02-24-2010, 05:03 PM
I think Bruce will have a great year power-wise if he hits 27-30 HR's. If Jay can get and sustain the confidence in himself then we have something. But if he hits in the .210 - .220 range agin this year, well, the luster is definitely gone, albeit not lost forever but even harder to regain.

AtomicDumpling
02-24-2010, 09:19 PM
Yes, I think he does have the potential to hit 50 home runs in a season. I think he will average about 40 with an occasional run at 50.

He already has 43 homers in 758 ABs while he was only 21 and 22 years old. His power will develop more fully as he approaches his late 20's. I would say he has a great chance of breaking the 50 barrier at least once in his career.

My new project for this season will be to track his rise through the all-time career list of home run hitters much like I used to do with the Adam Dunn Home Run Tracker thread.

Spring~Fields
02-24-2010, 09:28 PM
No.

Good answer, very astute. :lol:

Spring~Fields
02-24-2010, 09:30 PM
I would try and time his days off for when tougher LHPs are on the mound, but I wouldn't platoon him at this stage. Not in a million years.

I don't see anything wrong with your modified suggestion, wouldn't hurt anything would it? I mean anything to build him up, (experience/confidence) as we expect him to have a very long and fine career ahead of him.

Spring~Fields
02-24-2010, 09:33 PM
Personally, I think the front office allowed it by dealing off their most productive hitter of the decade for table scraps and instead of replacing his production went out and got Willy Taveras to be the veteran in the OF.

Well, somewhere they did enable it, so you would be correct as far as the "front office allowed it"

Spring~Fields
02-24-2010, 09:37 PM
FWIW, I think that Bruce's average and OBP will both come up in the years to come as he finishes developing. I think he has the ability to be more selective at the plate. Combined with his power, that's a recipe for more walks and better contact as he chases fewer pitches out of the zone.

Yes

Spring~Fields
02-24-2010, 09:47 PM
Maybe it isn't the coaches at the MLB level that are giving him trouble at this point in his career, it could just be the level of pitching he is facing.

That's true too, I think. Though for some reason I just can't see Jay Bruce having some of the very worst moments that we have seen him at. I don't know why, there is just something about him, well, it seems like he has a greatness in him as far as sports go with that word, "greatness". Tough to imagine him looking so bad at times.

Ron Madden
02-25-2010, 03:10 AM
Yes, I think he does have the potential to hit 50 home runs in a season. I think he will average about 40 with an occasional run at 50.

He already has 43 homers in 758 ABs while he was only 21 and 22 years old. His power will develop more fully as he approaches his late 20's. I would say he has a great chance of breaking the 50 barrier at least once in his career.

My new project for this season will be to track his rise through the all-time career list of home run hitters much like I used to do with the Adam Dunn Home Run Tracker thread.

That's good news! I loved the work you did with the Adam Dunn Home Run Tracker.

:thumbup:

redsfandan
02-25-2010, 05:25 AM
I would try and time his days off for when tougher LHPs are on the mound, but I wouldn't platoon him at this stage. Not in a million years.
Same here. He has to see some lefties or he'll never improve against them.