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View Full Version : The REDS don't need a 5th Starter until May 24th....



Kingspoint
02-24-2010, 07:25 AM
The schedule works out perfectly for the REDS to have a 4-man rotation until May 19th.

The first time a 5th starter is needed is April 14th.

The second time a 5th starter is needed is April 24th.

The third time a 5th starter is needed is May 4th.

The fourth time a 5th starter is needed is May 19th.

The fifth time a 5th starter is needed is May 24th.


That knowledge changes the whole dynamics of the Opening Day Roster. The REDS can have an extra bat, which is great.

Assuming the health to be good for everyone, we'll have:

Arroyo
Harang
Cueto
Bailey

....as our 4 starters through May 18th, with only 3 starts needed before that by a pitcher other than them. Sounds like the perfect job for Micah Owings, who would get those 3 starts, then a 4th start on May 19th if he'd earned it by his showings in his first three starts. If not a 5th starter can be brought up May 19th, or wait until May 24th. One of the pitcher who had been pitching in AAA could get the call up with one of the AA pitchers taking his place (more likely Chapman or Thompson moving from AA to AAA).

I don't think the REDS want any of those guys listed in my AAA roster coming out of the bullpen while waiting to start games on those dates from above.

It's possible that the REDS go straight to a 5-man rotation out of Spring Training and let every one pitch every 6th day instead of every 5th day until May 19th. One reason to do that is because the REDS have too many pitchers who should be pitching at the AA and AAA level. The easiest way to solve this problem though is to assume that 20% of the staff isn't going to be ready on Opening Day and will need extended Spring Training. Only those who are truly ready will get to pitch at the start of April.

Anyone else, and the REDS are going to want to have them pitching every day.

So, to begin with the AAA roster should look like (among these 6 assuming one won't be healthy enough to be ready the 2nd Week of April):

Wood
Maloney
Lehr
LeCure
Cochran
Thompson



The AA roster should look like this (among these 7 assuming two won't be healthy enough to start or be ready the 2nd Week of April):

Chapman
Smit
Mallett
Klinker
Avery
Jordan Smith
Leake

As soon as May 24th arrives, or Owings proves he's not up to the task, there will be a trickle-up effect that clears up the logjam of pitchers.

You can't have too much pitching, so this is a very, very good thing.

I haven't seen this much "decent" pitching in the REDS' organization since I've been alive to notice (I've been noticing for about 38 years since I was 12 and had access to libraries and The Sporting News and Baseball Digest.).

Kingspoint
02-24-2010, 07:36 AM
We have 20 pitchers who legitimately should be starting at AA or higher coming out of Spring Training this year. There are only 14 starting spots, 15 if you count those dates in the Majors and you don't mind letting your Major League Pitchers go every 6th day until the #1 pitcher finally goes on the 5th Day May 20th.

Those 20 pitchers also do not include Matt Fairel (or Dallas Buck or Edison Volquez).

Someone's always dealing with an injury so these things should work themselves out.

If you're a Pitcher and you get an injury this Spring, the REDS will almost be looking for a reason to give you extra rest and caution and keep you out until you're ready to throw.

Baker was right when he said, "We're going to have to find a lot of "B" games for all of these players and that they're just as important as the regular games." I assume he was talking about the starters and getting them starts.

I'm really going to enjoy watching Spring Training this year....just as much as the regular season.

Kingspoint
02-24-2010, 07:45 AM
Also, yesterday, Marty was asked if Chapman pitches well in the spring, what are his chances of making the team. Marty said they will open with 5 starters since they only have 2 off days through the 19th.

But, clearly Marty didn't actually try to count the starts. When you look at the calendar and pencil in the starters, the 5th starter isn't needed until the 14th, the 24th, May 4th, and then May 19th.

I guarantee the REDS know this. Marty and Fay don't, though.

bounty37h
02-24-2010, 10:03 AM
I bet they still start out with a 5 man, just to set the tone and get a rythym going.

5ToolPlaya
02-24-2010, 10:59 AM
It's not smart to load your starters with 4 7-8 inning games out of the gate. Instead of an extra bat I'd carry a long reliever or extra lefty, especially if Maloney is not in the rotation.

UPRedsFan
02-24-2010, 11:12 AM
Tempting as it is, I don't think they will or should go without a 5th starter.

It's probably smarter to let Bailey and Cueto go every sixth day to keep their innings down in April/May so they don't peter out in August. You don't want either one of them going much over 200 innings this year. I'd rather use the best 5th starter candidate to eat some of those early season innings and in the process find out who's ready to step into the role (Is it Maloney? Is it Owings? too soon for Leake?...)

BLEEDS
02-24-2010, 12:04 PM
Is it just me, or are there others that aren't following this:



The REDS don't need a 5th Starter until May 24th....

The first time a 5th starter is needed is April 14th.

The second time... The third time...


What you mean to say, I think (still trying to find "The Idiot's guide to following Kingspoint's logic"), is that we don't need a FULL-TIME 5th starter until then.

While that may be true, we obviously have 4 games before May 24th, and 5 games including May 24th, that need a 5th starter.

They're going to have to keep somebody on the roster to pitch those games, and especially early in the season - as UPRedsFan says - they'll probably spread out the younger guys' starts out past every 5th day.

While Owings may SEEM like the best guy as far as roster-saving options are concerned, is he really the best guy to give the first 4/5 starts to over the first two months of the season? Especially since he is the best option for long-relief?
I would think a Maloney or Lehr might be the better options, letting them throw some on their "scheduled" days to pitch which are off days - even if it's just light throwing day, simulated game, or what have you...

Also, I think you're off on your "projected" 5th starter needs.

Opening day is Monday April 5th - followed by an off day - then we have 12 games in a row.
Who is going to pitch on the 11th (and the 16th) ?
I'd like to see your proposed schedule.

PEACE

-BLEEDS


PEACE

-BLEEDS

Kingspoint
02-24-2010, 06:12 PM
That whole post I made is meaningless. I miscalculated it.

In the perfect scenario with no rainouts the 5th Starter would have 6 starts by May 22nd compared to 10 for the #1 (Arroyo), 10 for the #2 (Harang), 9 for the #3 (Cueto), and 8 for the #4, if I was trying to keep the "best" pitchers on 5 days rotations.

4/05 Arroyo
4/06 Off Day
4/07 Harang
4/08 Cueto
4/09 Bailey
4/10 Arroyo
4/11 5th Starter
4/12 Harang
4/13 Cueto
4/14 Bailey
4/15 Arroyo
4/16 5th Starter
4/17 Harang
4/18 Cueto
4/19 Off Day
4/20 Arroyo
4/21 Bailey
4/22 Harang
4/23 Cueto
4/24 5th Starter
4/25 Arroyo
4/26 Off Day
4/27 Harang
4/28 Cueto
4/29 Bailey
4/30 Arroyo
5/01 5th Starter
5/02 Harang
5/03 Cueto
5/04 Bailey
5/05 Arroyo
5/06 Off Day
5/07 Harang
5/08 Cueto
5/09 Bailey
5/10 Arroyo
5/11 5th Starter
5/12 Harang
5/13 Off Day
5/14 Cueto
5/15 Arroyo
5/16 Bailey
5/17 Harang
5/18 5th Starter
5/19 Cueto
5/20 Arroyo
5/21 Bailey
5/22 Harang
5/23 ....and so on...

Of course, 1 Rain Out and everything changes. Trying to predict any scenario is fruitless I also just figured out. There's going to be all "gut" feelings going on all the time and way too many dynamics involved.

Guess we do need a 5th Starter right out of the gate. I'm guessing that the 5th Starter will be between who pitches best in Spring Training among Owings, Wood, Maloney and Lehr. I can't see anyone else even being considered. I'll put my hat in the Owings ring...that he'll pitch the best this Spring.

gedred69
02-24-2010, 09:23 PM
...


Guess we do need a 5th Starter right out of the gate. I'm guessing that the 5th Starter will be between who pitches best in Spring Training among Owings, Wood, Maloney and Lehr. I can't see anyone else even being considered. I'll put my hat in the Owings ring...that he'll pitch the best this Spring.[/QUOTE]

I'll agree with Owings. If he's in the BP, his availability as a pinch bat is mostly eliminated.

Glove o' Gold
02-25-2010, 12:31 AM
People complain that Dusty ruins pitchers, but at the same time want a four man rotation because it can work out that way. How about getting our starters some extra rest so they can be ready to pitch the hot Summer months? I would rather have our starters fresh for the long hall than overuse them in the first two months.

double21d
02-25-2010, 06:40 AM
In one breath..."Dusty is going to blow out arms"
In the next one..."This team still isn't ready to compete"
In another breath..."Lets use a 4 man rotation at the beginning of the year!?!"

Sounds like bad breath!

Kingspoint
02-25-2010, 08:21 AM
People complain that Dusty ruins pitchers, but at the same time want a four man rotation because it can work out that way. How about getting our starters some extra rest so they can be ready to pitch the hot Summer months? I would rather have our starters fresh for the long hall than overuse them in the first two months.


I wasn't originally trying to say what "I wanted". I was trying to predict what Dusty and the REDS would do.

I'm with you on and others who want to make it a pure 5-man rotation and let any Off Days and Rainouts extend their starts to 6 or 7 days for everyone in the rotation. It would only make them stronger, and allow them to go 7, 8, or 9 innings instead of worrying about overusing them in April and limiting them to 5 or 6 innings in a start.

Kingspoint
02-25-2010, 08:23 AM
In one breath..."Dusty is going to blow out arms"
In the next one..."This team still isn't ready to compete"
In another breath..."Lets use a 4 man rotation at the beginning of the year!?!"

Sounds like bad breath!

Nobody said the first line other than yourself.

Nobody said the second line other than yourself.

Nobody said the third line other than yourself.

DaytonFlyer
02-25-2010, 08:49 AM
Arroyo is not going to start opening day, thus making your 2nd detailed post about the pitchers also, sadly, meaningless.

Arroyo said himself he doesn't think he should start opening day.

Kingspoint
02-25-2010, 10:13 PM
Arroyo is not going to start opening day, thus making your 2nd detailed post about the pitchers also, sadly, meaningless.

Arroyo said himself he doesn't think he should start opening day.

Of which a Reporter responded, Arroyo will pitch if Dusty thinks he's the best pitcher to start that day.

double21d
02-26-2010, 06:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by double21d View Post
In one breath..."Dusty is going to blow out arms"
In the next one..."This team still isn't ready to compete"
In another breath..."Lets use a 4 man rotation at the beginning of the year!?!"

Sounds like bad breath!
Nobody said the first line other than yourself.

Nobody said the second line other than yourself.

Nobody said the third line other than yourself.


Read the other posts on this blog...many people have said those statements. There are three different threads about Baker and abuse of arms. There have been several articles in newspapers and internet sites (like SI.com) about Baker's abuse not just recently but in the past. He's been blamed for Wood and Prior and people are fearful that the same will happen to Bailey.

Your statements of "we" in your original post and the profession of all of these decent arms and how it will help the team implies that you think it is a great idea.

Nevertheless, these statements have been said in the past.