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WildcatFan
02-24-2010, 11:59 AM
I've been playing around with Baseball Musings' Lineup Analysis tool and trying to project what this year's offense will look like with the additions of Johnny Gomes, Orlando Cabrera and, to a degree, Scott Rolen.

I don't love the engine, mostly because it weighs exclusively OBP and SLG, but it's a fun exercise in lineup construction and run projection.

Anyway, I plugged in 2009's stats for Votto, Phillips, Cabrera, Rolen, Hernandez, Gomes, Stubbs, Bruce and Harang, knowing that Bruce had a down year, and Stubbs was up for only 40 games. The projected lineup I inserted was:

Stubbs
Cabrera
Votto
Phillips
Rolen
Gomes
Bruce
Hernandez
Harang

The analysis tool projected 4.689 runs/game, which amounts to about 760 runs in 2010, 87 more runs than the 673 they scored last season. I'm actually not terribly surprised by that number, considering Willy Taveras, Bruce, Encarnacion and Janish had pretty miserable offensive seasons. You replace those with Stubbs, a better Bruce (we hope), Rolen and Cabrera, and things look up from a lineup standpoint. Another factor is a platoon of Gomes against lefties and Dickerson against righties, and I think the production out of LF will be very solid.

One other point I found interesting was the suggested lineup from Baseball Musings, which was:

Rolen
Votto
Cabrera
Gomes
Phillips
Bruce
Stubbs
Harang
Hernandez

I have no clue how the analysis came up with that list, but supposedly it would score 5.019 runs/game, or a whopping 813 runs.

Is this reasonable? How many runs do you see the Reds scoring this season?

(By the way, using the same tool the Yankees will score 935 runs this season. They scored 915 last season. Ugh.)

texasdave
02-24-2010, 12:34 PM
I enjoy messing around with their Lineup Analyser.

Just for grins I input the Reds 2009 splits into the analyser and it came out eye-opening close. :eek:


pos obp slg
1 0.302 0.348
2 0.302 0.359
3 0.383 0.519
4 0.326 0.440
5 0.339 0.431
6 0.321 0.418
7 0.328 0.427
8 0.308 0.290
9 0.233 0.289

These are the (miserable) numbers put up by the '09 offense. The Lineup Analyser ingested these numbers and spit out a remarkable result. The average lineup using these numbers would score 4.173 runs per game. That would be 673 runs over a 162-game season. The 09 Reds actually scored 676.
The better lineups would have scored 30ish more runs and none of these had the Dusty-fying CF/SS duo batting in the first two spots. (Although I am pretty sure the Analyser has no idea just how fast our CF/SS combo typically is.)

In any case, I think the offense could be much, much better in '10 - in spite of Dusty.

WildcatFan
02-24-2010, 01:46 PM
3 runs is a pretty good gauge, huh? If pitching improves slightly from where it was last season (723 runs allowed), and 760 runs becomes a reality, we could be in for an interesting season.