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OnBaseMachine
02-28-2010, 12:23 PM
From C. Trent:

Dusty said the lineup is pretty set: 1. Stubbs/Dickerson, 2. Cabrera, 3. Votto, 4. Phillips, 5. Rolen, 6. Bruce

http://twitter.com/ctrent

I don't like the idea of Jay Bruce hitting sixth. If he starts out the season hitting like most of us think he will, then he should immediately be moved to the cleanup spot, IMO. I don't care about the back-to-back lefties hitting third and fourth, if Bruce hits like he's capable of then he's the Reds best cleanup option, IMO.

kpresidente
02-28-2010, 12:55 PM
Dusty Baker....:rolleyes:

How much longer do we have?

Topcat
02-28-2010, 01:31 PM
Dusty Baker....:rolleyes:

How much longer do we have?

Hope it ends sooner than you do.

Will M
02-28-2010, 01:33 PM
From C. Trent:

Dusty said the lineup is pretty set: 1. Stubbs/Dickerson, 2. Cabrera, 3. Votto, 4. Phillips, 5. Rolen, 6. Bruce

http://twitter.com/ctrent

I don't like the idea of Jay Bruce hitting sixth. If he starts out the season hitting like most of us think he will, then he should immediately be moved to the cleanup spot, IMO. I don't care about the back-to-back lefties hitting third and fourth, if Bruce hits like he's capable of then he's the Reds best cleanup option, IMO.

the fact is he did not get it done in 2009. starting the season off lower in the order is fine IMO. let him get some sustained confidence before putting a lot of pressure on him.

REDblooded
02-28-2010, 01:36 PM
Pretty much what I expected... I agree with you on Bruce, but he does have to earn it first...

GOYA
02-28-2010, 01:39 PM
I don't like the idea of Jay Bruce hitting sixth. If he starts out the season hitting like most of us think he will, then he should immediately be moved to the cleanup spot, IMO.

Think he will or hope he will?

mth123
02-28-2010, 01:44 PM
From C. Trent:

Dusty said the lineup is pretty set: 1. Stubbs/Dickerson, 2. Cabrera, 3. Votto, 4. Phillips, 5. Rolen, 6. Bruce

http://twitter.com/ctrent

I don't like the idea of Jay Bruce hitting sixth. If he starts out the season hitting like most of us think he will, then he should immediately be moved to the cleanup spot, IMO. I don't care about the back-to-back lefties hitting third and fourth, if Bruce hits like he's capable of then he's the Reds best cleanup option, IMO.

And with that 3, 4, 5 combo, the Reds have been mathematically eliminated from contention for a play-off spot in 2010.

TheNext44
02-28-2010, 01:53 PM
Yea! Another lineup thread!!!

:rockband:

OnBaseMachine
02-28-2010, 02:05 PM
More on the lineup
Posted by jfay February 28th, 2010, 12:08 pm

Dusty Baker confirmed that Brandon Phillips will hit fourth again.

“He’s the best selection I’ve got, power, speed,” Baker said, “especially now that he’s learning to be an RBI man. I like (Scott) Rolen in the fifth spot, more than the fourth spot. It’ll give him better pitches to hit because Brandon might steal.”

It looks like the top of the lineup will be:

Drew Stubbs

Orlando Cabrera

Joey Votto

Brandon Phillips

Scott Rolen

Jay Bruce

“You’ve got a left, two rights and possibly another left with Bruce after Scott,” Baker said. “Right now, the No. 1 spot is Stubbs. If he doesn’t play, I can slot Dickerson in there without tearing up my lineup.”

Ramon Hernandez will likely hit seventh or eighth, with the left fielder in the other spot.

By the way, tomorrrow’s a big day at camp Goodyear. Tired, old Jamie Ramsey of Better Off Red fame is arriving. He earned the tag Tired, Old in the Reds Caravan. Seems Jamie was spotted at Big Al’s Bait Shop and Clothiers at one of the stops trying to find a pair of slacks that matched a paint chip from Ed Smith Stadium.

Jamie serves as a roadie and Marty Brennaman’s personal valet on the caravan. (Sadly, $2.99 was deducted for the Jamie’s customary sawbuck tip from Marty after Jamie brought back a skinny latte rather than black coffee Marty ordered from Starbucks. It’s doubly sad because Jamie has been saving for Jonas Brothers tickets).

Anyway, the Sansabelts purchased at Big Al’s will be a perfect compliment to Jamie’s fire engine red sports coat he wears on Opening Day. We’re not sure but we think the jacket was rescued from Mr. Howsam’s old office right before they blew up Cinergy Field.

By the way, I think the photos of me on Better Off Red were altered. Sure, I wear a jacket with “Loose Cannon” written across the back. But my hair’s not that gray is it?

Welcome, T.O. Jamie.

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/

TheNext44
02-28-2010, 02:18 PM
Looks like there was some payback for Ramsey's picture captions. Nice to see Fay has a sense of humor, and a good one at that. :)

smith288
02-28-2010, 02:21 PM
I agree with Dusty. He can do no wrong according to me (changing my plan of action this year...)

westofyou
02-28-2010, 02:46 PM
If you have nine hitters and nine batting order slots to put them in there are 362,880 ways to do it.

The Reds have already figured theirs out, they are already in 1st place.. it's their year... go team!

TheNext44
02-28-2010, 02:46 PM
Using Baseball Musing Lineup Analysis, and CHONE projections, Dusty's lineup above, assuming Gomes and Hernandez hit 7th and 8th, would produce 723 runs over a 162 game season.

If you switch Bruce and Phillips, the lineup would produce 727 runs over a 162 game season.

The best possible lineup according to the site is:

Rolen
Votto
Hernandez
Bruce
Phillips
Stubbs
Cabrera
Gomes
Pitcher

and that would produce 742 runs.

The average of all possible lineups is around 707 runs.

Just thought I'd throw that in there for discussion.

TheNext44
02-28-2010, 02:48 PM
If you have nine hitters and nine batting order slots to put them in there are 362,880 ways to do it.

The Reds have already figured theirs out, they are already in 1st place.. it's their year... go team!

And Jerry Narron and Bob Boone would find a way to use all 362,880 during the season, if possible. :)

Blitz Dorsey
02-28-2010, 02:51 PM
I like it (and is exactly what I expected).

No problem at all with Bruce batting sixth to start the year. It's a long season, gents. If he starts out hot, he'll move up in the lineup. I could see him and BP trading places if BP starts out slow. But for now, I like this lineup.

Dusty, I just ask one thing: When you give Cabrera a day off, please remember you don't HAVE to put Janish in the two hole. You are permitted by MLB rules to bat your SS anywhere in the lineup (eighth in Janish's case). Signed: Every Reds Fan.

WMR
02-28-2010, 03:09 PM
“He’s the best selection I’ve got, power, speed,” Baker said, “especially now that he’s learning to be an RBI man. I like (Scott) Rolen in the fifth spot, more than the fourth spot. It’ll give him better pitches to hit because Brandon might steal.”


:lol:

Learn to be 'An RBI Man' in 30 days or your money back, Guaranteed!

Good thing this tactical genius is working for us and not the Ruskies.

dougdirt
02-28-2010, 03:10 PM
:lol:

Learn to be 'An RBI Man' in 30 days or your money back, Guaranteed!

Good thing this tactical genius is working for us and not the Ruskies.

Best part is, he is still learning.... 2 years after Dusty originally started hitting him there.

camisadelgolf
02-28-2010, 03:13 PM
Using Baseball Musing Lineup Analysis, and CHONE projections, Dusty's lineup above, assuming Gomes and Hernandez hit 7th and 8th, would produce 723 runs over a 162 game season.

If you switch Bruce and Phillips, the lineup would produce 727 runs over a 162 game season.

The best possible lineup according to the site is:

Rolen
Votto
Hernandez
Bruce
Phillips
Stubbs
Cabrera
Gomes
Pitcher

and that would produce 742 runs.

The average of all possible lineups is around 707 runs.

Just thought I'd throw that in there for discussion.
One thing those lineups probably don't account for is the type of pitches batters will likely see based on the hitters batting after them. Joey Votto had a great year last year, but I think it's fairly safe to say that his production would go down if he were hitting in front of Ramon Hernandez instead of, say, Scott Rolen. That also doesn't account for platoon splits, which could greatly help in the instances of Hernandez, Gomes, Dickerson, etc.

nate
02-28-2010, 03:34 PM
Using Baseball Musing Lineup Analysis, and CHONE projections, Dusty's lineup above, assuming Gomes and Hernandez hit 7th and 8th, would produce 723 runs over a 162 game season.

If you switch Bruce and Phillips, the lineup would produce 727 runs over a 162 game season.

The best possible lineup according to the site is:

Rolen
Votto
Hernandez
Bruce
Phillips
Stubbs
Cabrera
Gomes
Pitcher

and that would produce 742 runs.

The average of all possible lineups is around 707 runs.

Just thought I'd throw that in there for discussion.

A 3-4 game difference this year could mean a lot more than it has in the last few years.

Kc61
02-28-2010, 03:38 PM
From C. Trent:

Dusty said the lineup is pretty set: 1. Stubbs/Dickerson, 2. Cabrera, 3. Votto, 4. Phillips, 5. Rolen, 6. Bruce

http://twitter.com/ctrent

I don't like the idea of Jay Bruce hitting sixth. If he starts out the season hitting like most of us think he will, then he should immediately be moved to the cleanup spot, IMO. I don't care about the back-to-back lefties hitting third and fourth, if Bruce hits like he's capable of then he's the Reds best cleanup option, IMO.

The Reds have only two lefties everyday in the lineup. Votto and Bruce. You don't hit them back-to-back. That would mean an all righty team except for two spots hitting lefty one after the other. No manager in baseball would do that IMO. Even when Dickerson plays, Votto and Bruce should be split.

I would like to see the Reds use the following lineup against righty pitching:

Stubbs/Dickerson
Cabrera
Votto
Rolen
Bruce
Phillips
Gomes/Dickerson
Hernandez
Pitcher

Two alternates could be-

Hitting Dickerson and Stubbs 1-2 with Cabrera hitting 7th or 8th
Hitting Dickerson lead off, Cabrera second, and Stubbs 7th.

Against lefties, it seems pretty obvious to me -

Stubbs
Cabrera
Votto
Phillips
Rolen
Bruce
Gomes
Hernandez
Pitcher

If Bruce is having trouble with lefties, I could see Gomes six and Bruce seven sometimes against lefties.

dougdirt
02-28-2010, 03:44 PM
The Reds have only two lefties everyday in the lineup. Votto and Bruce. You don't hit them back-to-back. That would mean an all righty team except for two spots hitting lefty one after the other. No manager in baseball would do that IMO.

Charlie Manuel had no problem batting Ibanez/Utley/Howard in a row over 50 times last season, or Howard and Utley back to back 140 times last year.

Kc61
02-28-2010, 03:52 PM
Charlie Manuel had no problem batting Ibanez/Utley/Howard in a row over 50 times last season, or Howard and Utley back to back 140 times last year.

As you know, Charlie didn't have much choice. Rollins and Victorino hit lefty against righty pitching. Utley, Howard, and Ibanez hit left handed. So five of his eight hitters were lefty.

In addition, the Phillies lacked righty middle-of-the-order caliber hitters. Only Werth. So, again, the makeup of the team required back to back lefties.

The Reds only have two or possibly three lefty starting hitters. No manager in baseball would lump them together in the lineup leaving all the righties hitting one after the other.

dougdirt
02-28-2010, 03:55 PM
As you know, Charlie didn't have much choice. Rollins and Victorino hit lefty against righty pitching. Utley, Howard, and Ibanez hit left handed. So five of his eight hitters were lefty.

In addition, the Phillies lacked righty middle-of-the-order caliber hitters. Only Werth. So, again, the makeup of the team required back to back lefties.

The Reds only have two or possibly three lefty starting hitters. No manager in baseball would lump them together in the lineup leaving all the righties hitting one after the other.

I don't think it would have mattered with the lefties because he was going to bat his best hitters in the middle of his order. The fact that they were lefties didn't matter. Not saying Bruce and Votto are our best hitters, but if they are, then they need to be back to back.

VR
02-28-2010, 03:56 PM
I'm thinking the important missing element here is the actual question Dusty was responding to....as I don't think he just put out a blanket press release stating the lineup was set.

Kc61
02-28-2010, 04:02 PM
I don't think it would have mattered with the lefties because he was going to bat his best hitters in the middle of his order. The fact that they were lefties didn't matter. Not saying Bruce and Votto are our best hitters, but if they are, then they need to be back to back.

Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig were both lefties, and i would have hit them consecutively. At some point of proficiency, handedness doesn't matter.

But when the lefty sidearm reliever comes in late in the game, I'm ok with Votto getting up. I don't want Bruce hitting right after him, I want a righty bat.

RedsManRick
02-28-2010, 04:04 PM
Get your best hitters the most PA. End of story.

Kc61
02-28-2010, 04:09 PM
Get your best hitters the most PA. End of story.

Assuming your "best hitters" hit all kinds of pitching.

Many lefty hitters don't hit lefties well. You can close your eyes to it. You can say, he's good I don't care. You can just ignore his tendencies.

I would care. I've seen too many threats snuffed by good lefty relievers.
I would arrange my lineup to avoid that disadvantage.

IowaRed
02-28-2010, 04:10 PM
Get your best hitters the most PA. End of story.

Amen, and the Reds have a manager who doesn't get that and never will

KronoRed
02-28-2010, 04:14 PM
Rolen behind Phillips? why? lemme guess, "respect"

Kc61
02-28-2010, 04:16 PM
Amen, and the Reds have a manager who doesn't get that and never will

Dusty gets it. But he has exactly one top hitter on his team. Votto.

it's easy to manage Votto in the lineup. Hit him third. In all spots. Just watch him.

The tough part is managing the rest. Guys who hit only certain kinds of pitching. Guys with DP tendencies. Guys who K very often. Guys like Rolen who hit well but whose power has declined. Guys like Bruce with potential but still raw.

I disagree with Phillips hitting cleanup against righty pitching and always have. Other than that, I think Dusty does ok with what he's had.

RedsManRick
02-28-2010, 04:16 PM
Assuming your "best hitters" hit all kinds of pitching.

Many lefty hitters don't hit lefties well. You can close your eyes to it. You can say, he's good I don't care. You can just ignore his tendencies.

I would care. I've seen too many threats snuffed by good lefty relievers.
I would arrange my lineup to avoid that disadvantage.

I'll never understand logic that says you should disadvantage your lineup for the majority of your plate appearances to minimize a weakness exposed in the minority.

When the lineup turns over for the 3rd time in the middle innings against a tiring starter, I want Bruce getting another at bat before Orlando Cabrera.

What's the argument for Cabrera 2nd instead of Rolen? Speed? Bat Control? Size? Defensive position?

Kc61
02-28-2010, 04:29 PM
I'll never understand logic that says you should disadvantage your lineup for the majority of your plate appearances to minimize a weakness exposed in the minority.

When the lineup turns over for the 3rd time in the middle innings against a tiring starter, I want Bruce getting another at bat before Orlando Cabrera.

What's the argument for Cabrera 2nd instead of Rolen? Speed? Bat Control? Size? Defensive position?

The logic is that these are regular players. You don't pinch hit for them. So you have to look ahead and avoid putting yourself in a weak spot in the late innings.

it's easier with platoon players. Hit platoon lefties back to back. Doesn't matter. You can always pinch hit a righty. Probably will. But you won't pinch hit for Bruce so you have to avoid that spot in the late innings that can define the game.

As for Cabrera, go back to 2007, you'll find that the SS, Gonzalez, didn't hit second very often. Dusty's CF/SS thing is funny and makes for cute posts, but it's not invariable.

Dusty doesn't like slow guys up top. iMO he thinks slow guys hitting second result in DPs. Unfortunately for him, he doesn't have many high OBP guys with speed.

The Reds are improved on offense, but they still don't have a true leadoff guy, a true number two hitter, a true cleanup guy. There is Votto and a lot of fifth-sixth-seventh place hitters. So there is no logical lineup right now, just making the best of the current squad.

IowaRed
02-28-2010, 04:34 PM
Dusty gets it. But he has exactly one top hitter on his team. Votto.

it's easy to manage Votto in the lineup. Hit him third. In all spots. Just watch him.

The tough part is managing the rest. Guys who hit only certain kinds of pitching. Guys with DP tendencies. Guys who K very often. Guys like Rolen who hit well but whose power has declined. Guys like Bruce with potential but still raw.

I disagree with Phillips hitting cleanup against righty pitching and always have. Other than that, I think Dusty does ok with what he's had.

actually Dusty doesn't get it, he bats a speed guy 1st and a veteran "bat-handler" 2nd (normally the CF and SS) regardless of OBP

Ron Madden
02-28-2010, 04:37 PM
The logic is that these are regular players. You don't pinch hit for them. So you have to look ahead and avoid putting yourself in a weak spot in the late innings.

If you give your best offensive players the most ABs you just might score enough runs early in the game so you don't have to worry about the other teams bullpen later in the game.

Kc61
02-28-2010, 04:38 PM
actually Dusty doesn't get it, he bats a speed guy 1st and a veteran "bat-handler" 2nd (normally the CF and SS) regardless of OBP

And what high OBP guys is he burying?

The Reds have a third place hitter in Votto, everyone agrees.

Who is the natural lead off hitter on the team. Dickerson? Maybe against righties except he fans almost one third of his official at bats.

The Reds have no natural leadoff man. They don't really have a natural number two. They don't have a true cleanup hitter. They have lots of fifth, sixth, seventh and eighth hitters.

Give Dusty the right offensive pieces, then criticize him if you want. Not with this squad.

TheNext44
02-28-2010, 04:42 PM
Just for the record, back with the Giants, Dusty was quoted as saying one of the main reasons why he likes to bat RLRL, is that it makes the pitcher work harder. If a pitchers has too face three lefties in a row, the pitcher can pitch from the same spot and aply basically the same approach to each hitter. He can get into a small grove. Switching the handedness of hitters makes it harder for a pitcher to get into a grove.

So I think Dusty is thinking as much about breaking up Phillips, Rolen, Gomes and Hernandez as his is about the problems of batting Votto and Bruce back to back.

Not saying I agree with it, but that's is what he has stated in the past.

That said, Dusty has shown that he will bat the best power hitters in the middle of the lineup, regardless of handedness, if has them. He batted Sosa, Alou and Ramirez 3-4-5, when he was with the Cubs.

Kc61
02-28-2010, 04:46 PM
Just checked last year's stats. Dickerson, perhaps the most logical leadoff hitter, did lead off for 114 at bats. Most of his at bats were hitting first or second in the lineup. So Dusty didn't bury Dickerson in the lineup, he recognized his OBP skills.

When Dickerson and Stubbs both play this year, i wouldn't holler if CD hit leadoff and Stubbs either second or further down in the lineup.

TheNext44
02-28-2010, 04:50 PM
I'll never understand logic that says you should disadvantage your lineup for the majority of your plate appearances to minimize a weakness exposed in the minority.

When the lineup turns over for the 3rd time in the middle innings against a tiring starter, I want Bruce getting another at bat before Orlando Cabrera.

What's the argument for Cabrera 2nd instead of Rolen? Speed? Bat Control? Size? Defensive position?

The logic is that you want speed and good bat control batting second. This allows the leadoff hitter to get into scoring position more often. It was a logic and philosophy that worked fine for decades.

I don't agree with that logic, but there it is. I agree with you that the best approach is to get your best hitters the most PA's. But the difference between that and the "old school" philosophy is maybe 5-10 runs a season, depending what options you have.

My main argument against fretting about lineups, is that no teams use the same lineup 162 games a season. Even Dusty, who likes to stick to a set lineup, uses well over a dozen different lineups a season, and the main one less than half the time, due to matchups, injuries, hot steaks, cold streaks, etc. Each lineup has such a small sample size, it's impossible to accurately determine how effective a manager's lineups really are.

But it sure does make for some fun discussion. :)

IowaRed
02-28-2010, 04:55 PM
I don't have the history of Dusty's leadoff selections, but I believe somebody on here did some pretty extensive research into his line up choices over the years. He has had better choices in the past for leadoff (OBP) and chose speed. A quick glance at some lineups show Benard, Javier, Shinjo, and of course Patterson twice and Tavares.

Kc61
02-28-2010, 05:08 PM
I don't have the history of Dusty's leadoff selections, but I believe somebody on here did some pretty extensive research into his line up choices over the years. He has had better choices in the past for leadoff (OBP) and chose speed. A quick glance at some lineups show Benard, Javier, Shinjo, and of course Patterson twice and Tavares.

Maybe you should have the recent history.

First off, Dusty didn't hit Patterson lead off most of the time. In 2008, he hit leadoff with the Reds for 155 PAs. He hit elsewhere in the lineup 237 times.

Then there's Taveras. Yes, Dusty hit him leadoff usually. So did Colorado for two years in 2007 and 2008. Then go back to Houston in 2006. Taveras led off most of the time, hit in the second spot about half as often.

I still would contend that Dusty's tendencies are exaggerated around here. And the limitations of his players are often overlooked.

IowaRed
02-28-2010, 05:10 PM
Found it, great stuff

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=68007

HumnHilghtFreel
02-28-2010, 05:15 PM
I hate BP hitting cleanup, but I actually feel like this team could be fairly productive this year

RedsManRick
02-28-2010, 05:42 PM
The logic is that these are regular players. You don't pinch hit for them. So you have to look ahead and avoid putting yourself in a weak spot in the late innings.

We already disagree. I say you build your lineup around the first 6 innings, not the last 3. No matter how you make up your lineup, the opposing manager will have the opportunity to use his bullpen in such a way as to minimize your advantage. However, so long as the starter is in the game, you know what pitcher you're going to face. I want my best hitters to have as many at bats against the starting pitcher as possible.

By playing for a late inning advantage, you increase the likelihood that the late innings matter in the first place. I'd rather have a 6-3 lead in the 8th and make that LOOGY irrelevant

Now, if you're facing a lefty starter, there's certainly an argument that Bruce belongs in the bottom half of the lineup. But if you're facing a righty, you base your lineup on that -- not what may or not matter and/or happen in the late innings. It's human nature, but we are way too willing to ignore the big things if they aren't as interesting as the little ones.

And if you're really set on splitting your lefties, even against a righty SP, how about Bruce 2nd, Rolen 3rd, Votto 4th, Phillps 5th? (or flip either of the pairs, if you're so inclined). The advantage you might gain by avoiding a LOOGY cannot possibly justify giving Cabrera ~10% more PA than Bruce over the course of the season. That Dusty thinks it's a good to bat 2 of our 3 best hitters in the bottom half of the lineup is just mind boggling.

red-in-la
02-28-2010, 05:44 PM
The media used to give Sparky Anderson some grief over who hit 4-5-6......of course his choices were Bench, Foster and Perez. Anderson used to say that he hit whoever was hot 4th.

edabbs44
02-28-2010, 05:56 PM
We already disagree. I say you build your lineup around the first 6 innings, not the last 3. No matter how you make up your lineup, the opposing manager will have the opportunity to use his bullpen in such a way as to minimize your advantage. However, so long as the starter is in the game, you know what pitcher you're going to face. I want my best hitters to have as many at bats against the starting pitcher as possible.

By playing for a late inning advantage, you increase the likelihood that the late innings matter in the first place. I'd rather have a 6-3 lead in the 8th and make that LOOGY irrelevant

Now, if you're facing a lefty starter, there's certainly an argument that Bruce belongs in the bottom half of the lineup. But if you're facing a righty, you base your lineup on that -- not what may or not matter and/or happen in the late innings. It's human nature, but we are way too willing to ignore the big things if they aren't as interesting as the little ones.

And if you're really set on splitting your lefties, even against a righty SP, how about Bruce 2nd, Rolen 3rd, Votto 4th, Phillps 5th? (or flip either of the pairs, if you're so inclined). The advantage you might gain by avoiding a LOOGY cannot possibly justify giving Cabrera ~10% more PA than Bruce over the course of the season. That Dusty thinks it's a good to bat 2 of our 3 best hitters in the bottom half of the lineup is just mind boggling.

Is Bruce really one of the best hitters on this team right now? How would his .299 OBP vs RHPs last season look in the 2 hole?

edabbs44
02-28-2010, 05:57 PM
What's the argument for Cabrera 2nd instead of Rolen? Speed? Bat Control? Size? Defensive position?

How about not having Ramon Hernandez/Pitcher/Stubbs hitting in front of him? I would want to see Rolen with more ABs with people on base than Cabrera.

Benihana
02-28-2010, 05:58 PM
I don't understand Phillis hitting cleanup either. If you're going to insist on alternating righties and lefties through the heart of the lineup, I'd go something like this:

1. Stubbs/Dickerson
2. Phillips
3. Votto
4. Rolen
5. Bruce
6. Gomes/Dickerson
7. Cabrera
8. Hernandez

Kc61
02-28-2010, 05:59 PM
And if you're really set on splitting your lefties, even against a righty SP, how about Bruce 2nd, Rolen 3rd, Votto 4th, Phillps 5th? (or flip either of the pairs. The advantage you might gain by avoiding a LOOGY cannot possibly justify giving Cabrera ~10% more PA than Bruce over the course of the season.

I have no problem trying it, but Bruce's main skill last year was the HR. I don't see him as a good number two hitter particularly, he isn't a high OBP guy, he pops up a lot. I think he's more effective lower down.

As I've said, the Reds don't have ideal one and two hitters. Right now, if I managed the team, I'd give Cabrera a shot at the number two slot and see how it goes. I would not have given Janish that shot. Janish would hit 8th.

Also keep in mind that if you bunch the good hitters, you are also bunching the bad hitters.

All that said, I'd probably start the season against a righty with:

Dickerson LF
Cabrera SS
Votto 1B
Rolen 3B
Bruce LF
Phillips 2B
Stubbs CF
Hernandez C

If that didn't generate enough offense I'd probably try Phillips hitting number 2 and move Cabrera to 7th or 8th. I also would consider inserting Gomes for either Stubbs or Dickerson.

TheNext44
02-28-2010, 06:15 PM
In my opinion, the best lineup with the current roster has Votto batting second. Move everyone up a notch, and put Cabrera in the 8th hole. It's not like Votto will have that many less PA's with RISP, considering you are just losing one PA a game with Cabrera right before him.

camisadelgolf
02-28-2010, 06:19 PM
Against RHP, BP has a lot of trouble hitting pitches that aren't fastballs. If you want him to succeed, you bat him ahead of someone like Rolen. If you look at a lineup strictly in terms of numbers (BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, etc.), it's very easy to calculate the best possible lineup. But if you build a lineup in the context of pitchers throwing different pitches to different hitters based on the players who behind them, you can make the argument that BP in the four-hole isn't all that bad of a decision.

edabbs44
02-28-2010, 06:20 PM
In my opinion, the best lineup with the current roster has Votto batting second. Move everyone up a notch, and put Cabrera in the 8th hole. It's not like Votto will have that many less PA's with RISP, considering you are just losing one PA a game with Cabrera right before him.

Votto needs to hit 3.

mth123
02-28-2010, 06:43 PM
VS. RHP

Dickerson CF
Rolen 3B
Votto 1B
Bruce RF
Gomes LF
Phillips 2B
Cabrera SS
Hernandez/Hanigan C
Pitcher

Against LHP

Stubbs CF
Rolen 3B
Votto 1B
Phillips 2B
Gomes LF
Bruce RF
Hernandez/Hanigan C
Cabrera SS
Pitcher

The team needs a lefty bat with some power to play LF (but not Laynce Nix) vs. RHP in place of Gomes, but until then Gomes tries to repeat what he did in 2009 again next year.

Rolen is a plus in the 2 hole, but would be a huge minus hitting 5th. Phillips is fine cleaning up VS. LHP but against RHP he should hit no better than 6th. The Catchers and Cabrera are purely bottom of the order guys.

RedsManRick
02-28-2010, 06:44 PM
Is Bruce really one of the best hitters on this team right now? How would his .299 OBP vs RHPs last season look in the 2 hole?

Any reasonable lineup projection is based on projected future performance, not past performance. Even assuming no personal growth and just regression to the mean in his BABIP, we're looking at an OBP in the .330-.335 range, compared to .320-.325 for Cabrera. And I think Bruce is likely to improve skill wise whereas Cabrera is likely to decline.

In the FWIW department, here's the proposed lineup from the lineup analysis tool and PECOTA 50th percentile projections: (note the projection for Bruce's OBP...)



AVG/ OBP/ SLG
Rolen .275/.361/.426
Votto .295/.388/.534
Stubbs .237/.320/.360
Bruce .276/.347/.520
Dickerson .251/.355/.420
Phillips .280/.339/.487
Cabrera .276/.327/.385
Pitcher .110/.125/.150
Hanigan .263/.358/.350

I really like the Cabrera, Pitcher, Hanigan combo at the bottom of the order. Cabrera is a contact guy with a bit of pop. Hanigan will take a walk but isn't exactly an "RBI guy".

kpresidente
02-28-2010, 06:57 PM
The Reds have only two lefties everyday in the lineup. Votto and Bruce. You don't hit them back-to-back. That would mean an all righty team except for two spots hitting lefty one after the other. No manager in baseball would do that IMO. Even when Dickerson plays, Votto and Bruce should be split.

So the logic here is you split them up because you're worried they could be neutralized by a LOOGY (even though Votto hits lefties)? And the answer is to split them up with an easy out against RHP (Phillips), who they'll be seeing 70% of the time?

To me it's easy. Swap Phillips and Bruce in the clean-up spot depending on the starting pitcher and don't worry about who they might face late in the game.

RedsManRick
02-28-2010, 06:58 PM
Votto needs to hit 3.

Based on conventional wisdom, yes. But most objective analysis says that the 3-hole actually is less important than 2 or 4 since it's likely that you'll come up to bat with 2 outs and the bases empty in the first inning. And of course, with a Dusty lineup, the odds are all the more higher...

As has been said elsewhere many times, the biggest influence of lineup order isn't the order and the way that results in certain offensive sequences so much as it increased number of plate appearances you get from batting higher in the order.

But managers aren't rewarded by fans or the press for being smart in the macro.

kpresidente
02-28-2010, 06:59 PM
VS. RHP

Dickerson CF
Rolen 3B
Votto 1B
Bruce RF
Gomes LF
Phillips 2B
Cabrera SS
Hernandez/Hanigan C
Pitcher

Against LHP

Stubbs CF
Rolen 3B
Votto 1B
Phillips 2B
Gomes LF
Bruce RF
Hernandez/Hanigan C
Cabrera SS
Pitcher

The team needs a lefty bat with some power to play LF (but not Laynce Nix) vs. RHP in place of Gomes, but until then Gomes tries to repeat what he did in 2009 again next year.

Rolen is a plus in the 2 hole, but would be a huge minus hitting 5th. Phillips is fine cleaning up VS. LHP but against RHP he should hit no better than 6th. The Catchers and Cabrera are purely bottom of the order guys.

mth wins. Only thing I'd add is if Gomes doesn't hit righties this year and we don't add a left-handed bat, you might want to platoon him with Dickerson and let Stubbs play every day.

Ron Madden
02-28-2010, 07:28 PM
In my opinion the lineup was set in Dusty's mind the day Cabrera signed.

mth123
02-28-2010, 07:32 PM
mth wins. Only thing I'd add is if Gomes doesn't hit righties this year and we don't add a left-handed bat, you might want to platoon him with Dickerson and let Stubbs play every day.

Ugh. Hate the idea of Stubbs and Dickerson in the line-up together. If so against RHP Dickerson leads off with Stubbs hitting 7th and Phillips and Cabrera moving up a spot. That makes the 5 through 9 holes awfully weak. I'd probably give Balentien a try in LF before that.

WMR
02-28-2010, 07:33 PM
In my opinion the lineup was set in Dusty's mind the day Cabrera signed.

No doubt.

Dusty salivates over the prospect of batting a hitter like Cabrera second.

Scrap Irony
02-28-2010, 08:23 PM
You guys are talking about, at most, somewhere in the vicinity of ten runs over the course of the entire season here.

As long as Baker uses the right guys, it's not going to make too much difference between his lineup and the optimized one.

Much ado, dudes.

IowaRed
02-28-2010, 08:54 PM
You guys are talking about, at most, somewhere in the vicinity of ten runs over the course of the entire season here.

As long as Baker uses the right guys, it's not going to make too much difference between his lineup and the optimized one.

Much ado, dudes.

so you'd rather not have those 10 runs than have them or just not care about them, if that is the correct number? How many wins is that? 0, 1, 2, 3? I'll take a manager that puts the best possible lineup on the field and in the best possible position for every run and win possible

mth123
02-28-2010, 08:55 PM
You guys are talking about, at most, somewhere in the vicinity of ten runs over the course of the entire season here.

As long as Baker uses the right guys, it's not going to make too much difference between his lineup and the optimized one.

Much ado, dudes.

I don't think so. Like it or not, teams are going to structure the line-up to fill roles and attempting to fill those roles will have a direct impact on who actually does get the PT. I think its impossible to separate the choice of who plays from the choice of which order they hit.

If the Reds, for example, want to get the prototypical speed guy at the top, then guys like Patterson, Willy and now Stubbs end-up getting more PT than they may deserve while better bets sit (like Dickerson vs RHP or some one else while Dickerson plays LF).

Ron Madden
02-28-2010, 09:49 PM
Dusty tells Mark Sheldon of reds.com that he's not worried about his contract.


The only thing about Bakers contract that worries me is the possibility of it being extended. ;)

KronoRed
02-28-2010, 09:54 PM
Dusty tells Mark Sheldon of reds.com that he's not worried about his contract.


The only thing about Bakers contract that worries me is the possibility of it being extended. ;)

We should have a poll on when that will happen, my guess is during spring training.

kbrake
02-28-2010, 09:57 PM
I'd imagine if Dusty gets a new contract everyone here will be happy with the way 2010 went. Now if after a good May Dusty gets a new deal, this place will probably have a complete meltdown.

Kc61
02-28-2010, 10:01 PM
So the logic here is you split them up because you're worried they could be neutralized by a LOOGY (even though Votto hits lefties)? And the answer is to split them up with an easy out against RHP (Phillips), who they'll be seeing 70% of the time?

To me it's easy. Swap Phillips and Bruce in the clean-up spot depending on the starting pitcher and don't worry about who they might face late in the game.

The logic is that if you bunch your few lefty bats, and also bunch your righty bats, you make life very easy for the opposing manager who can gain the advantage with relative ease.

And this easy advantage will be gained when the game is on the line.

No doubt that Phillips shouldn't hit cleanup against righties. Because he doesn't hit righties well enough. But at this stage of his career, Bruce should not be his replacement. IMO the replacement cleanup hitter should be Rolen until somebody new joins the team who hits all kinds of pitching.

Raisor
02-28-2010, 10:57 PM
Bruce has a career line of .259/.320/.528/.848 and a OPS+ of 118 vs RHP.

I would much rather he hit cleanup vsRHP, and it's not even close.

Spring~Fields
02-28-2010, 11:17 PM
Found it, great stuff

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=68007

Look at this posted below on May 08, 12:46 pm…..Just great stuff, and an indicator that something’s never change and some never learn, speaking of Dusty Baker. It is now almost March 2010 and Baker has not learned from his mistakes on a team needing to achieve the most run scoring chances and opportunities possible, one game at a time. While others are still projecting runs based on something other than what this teams players do against right handed pitching.

RedsManRick is Nostradamus reincarnated but only better this time around. :thumbup: We can actually understand what Rick is talking about and it comes true.


I maintain that Dusty organizes his thoughts based on anecdotes rather than systems. His treatment of his leadoff man is really a pretty good microcosm for Dusty's general philosophical approach. He's extremely influenced by personal experience. I think this serves him well in many facets of his job, but when it comes to something driven by the law of large numbers, he gets lost.

One of my personal methods of judging the quality of a manager (not just in baseball) is their willingness to accept their own fallibility and constantly seek personal improvement, ultimately for the betterment of the organization.

He can't see the forest for the trees and his thinking is dominated by a bunch of classic biases. We're all subject to them to a degree, but Dusty more so than most. I get the sense that, more or less, Dusty believes what he believes and is averse to introspection. Here are some of the biases I see from Dusty particularly often.

Anchoring — the tendency to rely too heavily, or "anchor," on a past reference or on one trait or piece of information when making decisions.
Base rate fallacy — ignoring available statistical data in favor of particulars
Confirmation bias — the tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions
Hyperbolic discounting — the tendency for people to have a stronger preference for more immediate payoffs relative to later payoffs, the closer to the present both payoffs are
Illusion of control — the tendency for human beings to believe they can control or at least influence outcomes that they clearly cannot
Illusory correlation — beliefs that inaccurately suppose a relationship between a certain type of action and an effect

Cyclone, do you have the team OBP numbers handy. I'd be interested to see the difference between his leadoff man and his team's average OBP -- perhaps omitting the top and bottom OBP from each team's average to account for outliers...

Spring~Fields
02-28-2010, 11:27 PM
Get your best hitters the most PA. End of story.

Since we don't have the best of both worlds, how about a compromise and give your best hitters against right handed pitching the most PA? :)

Spring~Fields
02-28-2010, 11:34 PM
If you give your best offensive players the most ABs you just might score enough runs early in the game so you don't have to worry about the other teams bullpen later in the game.

Might win more of those one and two run games too, and or games that are only won by one or two runs, might even add more wins to the win column on the season total.

Oh well so much for those magnanimous and grandiose runs scored projections we saw earlier for this off season.

Next and his quick projection shows about a 50 run increase that amounts to 0.30864197530864197530864197530864 run increase per game. Good over last years Reds, but not enough to overcome the primary competition in the Central. Let’s hope that St. Louis, Chicago and Milwaukee somehow collapse this year, yeah right!

Spring~Fields
02-28-2010, 11:38 PM
I say you build your lineup around the first 6 innings, not the last 3. No matter how you make up your lineup, the opposing manager will have the opportunity to use his bullpen in such a way as to minimize your advantage. However, so long as the starter is in the game, you know what pitcher you're going to face. I want my best hitters to have as many at bats against the starting pitcher as possible.

And if you're really set on splitting your lefties, even against a righty SP, how about Bruce 2nd, Rolen 3rd, Votto 4th, Phillps 5th? (or flip either of the pairs, if you're so inclined). The advantage you might gain by avoiding a LOOGY cannot possibly justify giving Cabrera ~10% more PA than Bruce over the course of the season. That Dusty thinks it's a good to bat 2 of our 3 best hitters in the bottom half of the lineup is just mind boggling.

:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy

Spring~Fields
02-28-2010, 11:45 PM
VS. RHP

Dickerson CF
Rolen 3B
Votto 1B
Bruce RF
Gomes LF
Phillips 2B
Cabrera SS
Hernandez/Hanigan C
Pitcher

Against LHP

Stubbs CF
Rolen 3B
Votto 1B
Phillips 2B
Gomes LF
Bruce RF
Hernandez/Hanigan C
Cabrera SS
Pitcher

The team needs a lefty bat with some power to play LF (but not Laynce Nix) vs. RHP in place of Gomes, but until then Gomes tries to repeat what he did in 2009 again next year.

Rolen is a plus in the 2 hole, but would be a huge minus hitting 5th. Phillips is fine cleaning up VS. LHP but against RHP he should hit no better than 6th. The Catchers and Cabrera are purely bottom of the order guys.

:clap::clap::clap::clap::clap:

Tell WJ we have Dusty's replacement candidates, either mth or Rick. ;)

Nate and Next scare me, :scared: they are too exotic. :lol:
:oops:

Ron Madden
03-01-2010, 12:26 AM
We should have a poll on when that will happen, my guess is during spring training.


Hope you are wrong on this one.

kaldaniels
03-01-2010, 01:35 AM
I don't care if Dusty starts a season with a lineup that according to a computer will be worth ten less runs than the optimum lineup. I do care how quickly he recognizes the performances of his players in 2010 and adjusts the lineup accordingly.

If its June and Bruce is tearing up the joint...he better be batting higher. If BP is having a terrible year he better be moved down. Its pretty simple.

Are we seriously wringing our hands about 10 (hypothetical) runs a year? How many managers in the bigs are putting out a lineup that is better than that (10 runs less than the optimum)?

Big Klu
03-01-2010, 01:59 AM
If its June and Bruce is tearing up the joint...he better be batting higher. If BP is having a terrible year he better be moved down. Its pretty simple.

However, if the opposite is true (Phillips is tearing up the joint, and Bruce is having a terrible year), will RedsZone acknowledge it?

kaldaniels
03-01-2010, 02:32 AM
However, if the opposite is true (Phillips is tearing up the joint, and Bruce is having a terrible year), will RedsZone acknowledge it?

You just blew my mind. :D

Kc61
03-01-2010, 07:29 AM
Bruce has a career line of .259/.320/.528/.848 and a OPS+ of 118 vs RHP.

I would much rather he hit cleanup vsRHP, and it's not even close.

In 2009 Bruce hit .229 with a .299 OBP against righty pitching. His OPS value was all in the home runs.

I don't want a sub-.300 OBP hitter high up in the lineup or at cleanup.

Bruce will get there, I'm sure, but right now he should hit fifth or sixth.

lollipopcurve
03-01-2010, 09:27 AM
I don't care if Dusty starts a season with a lineup that according to a computer will be worth ten less runs than the optimum lineup. I do care how quickly he recognizes the performances of his players in 2010 and adjusts the lineup accordingly.

If its June and Bruce is tearing up the joint...he better be batting higher. If BP is having a terrible year he better be moved down. Its pretty simple.

Are we seriously wringing our hands about 10 (hypothetical) runs a year? How many managers in the bigs are putting out a lineup that is better than that (10 runs less than the optimum)?

Right on.

camisadelgolf
03-01-2010, 09:33 AM
I'm more worried about who will make the team than I am the lineup construction. If Aaron Miles is the #1 backup at 2B and 3B, I might throw a fit.

Ltlabner
03-01-2010, 11:09 AM
In my opinion the lineup was set in Dusty's mind the day Cabrera signed.

Yep. CF 1, SS 2, Ltlabner barfing 3



We already disagree. I say you build your lineup around the first 6 innings, not the last 3. No matter how you make up your lineup, the opposing manager will have the opportunity to use his bullpen in such a way as to minimize your advantage. However, so long as the starter is in the game, you know what pitcher you're going to face. I want my best hitters to have as many at bats against the starting pitcher as possible..

Why is this so hard for people to grasp?

Baring something weird you're facing the starter for 5 to 7 innings of the game, yet we should plan around the 2 or 3 because something possibly, maybe, might or could happen?

Makes no sense.

And Phillips cleanup is simply dumb. I know Dusty's options are limited and understand that. But why he insists on casting Phillips as a slugger mystifies me. You're telling a guy who struggles with trying to blast the ball (and consequently gets in big ruts) to go into a position stereotypically reserved for someone who tries to blast the ball.

Falls City Beer
03-01-2010, 11:18 AM
I don't know this for sure, but my guess is Bruce will see far fewer fastballs in the 6th spot than he would high up in the lineup. I don't think it would be a bad thing necessarily for Bruce to see a greater number of offspeed pitches, and learn to be more selective, that is, learn not to swing at bad pitches, learn to do more with less.

edabbs44
03-01-2010, 11:30 AM
Why is this so hard for people to grasp?

Baring something weird you're facing the starter for 5 to 7 innings of the game, yet we should plan around the 2 or 3 because something possibly, maybe, might or could happen?

Makes no sense.

I guess there are two things to think about:

1) If you are splitting lefties with a pretty good hitter, is it that big of a deal? I am speaking generally, not with anyone specific in mind. Obviously I would see the problem if you were to put a Janish-type in between two superior lefty hitters. But if the hitter is productive, how big of a deal is it having a guy hit in between two other guys? Especially when you consider...

2) If those 2 or 3 possible innings later in a game were extremely high leverage, would it then be worth it? Using Cincy as an example, if the Reds were to go Votto-Phillips-Bruce (I know I am forgetting about Rolen, but he isn't part of this scenario) instead of Votto-Bruce-Phillips, would that be that big of a deal in the overall scheme of things? Would hitting Bruce in front of Phillips make enough of a difference in the front part of a game to allow the other team to have an opportunity to lessen their productivity from the 6th inning on?

Kc61
03-01-2010, 11:38 AM
Why is this so hard for people to grasp?

Baring something weird you're facing the starter for 5 to 7 innings of the game, yet we should plan around the 2 or 3 because something possibly, maybe, might or could happen?

Makes no sense.

.

Just because somebody doesn't agree with you doesn't mean they don't "grasp" the point.

Maybe you don't grasp the huge difference for many lefty hitters between facing a lefty pitcher and a righty pitcher.

Have you looked at Jay Bruce's numbers against lefty pitching?

Do you pinch hit for him in the seventh inning of a close game against a loogy with the lead runner on base? Or do we stop worrying about tight ball games because it doesn't happen every day.

Please try to keep your comments on the issues rather than telling us who "grasps" what. Thank you.

Kc61
03-01-2010, 11:41 AM
I guess there are two things to think about:

1) If you are splitting lefties with a pretty good hitter, is it that big of a deal? I am speaking generally, not with anyone specific in mind. Obviously I would see the problem if you were to put a Janish-type in between two superior lefty hitters. But if the hitter is productive, how big of a deal is it having a guy hit in between two other guys? Especially when you consider...

2) If those 2 or 3 possible innings later in a game were extremely high leverage, would it then be worth it? Using Cincy as an example, if the Reds were to go Votto-Phillips-Bruce (I know I am forgetting about Rolen, but he isn't part of this scenario) instead of Votto-Bruce-Phillips, would that be that big of a deal in the overall scheme of things? Would hitting Bruce in front of Phillips make enough of a difference in the front part of a game to allow the other team to have an opportunity to lessen their productivity from the 6th inning on?

This is a key point. Excellent post.

Once again, it adds up to the Reds' problem the last few seasons. No righty batter who really belongs in the middle of the order.

The issue here really isn't hitting Votto/Bruce together. The issue is that there is no true cleanup hitter from the right side.

If the Reds had Greg Vaughn from the 1999 team available to hit cleanup, a lot of debate would have been avoided in this thread.

Ltlabner
03-01-2010, 11:42 AM
Just because somebody doesn't agree with you doesn't mean they don't "grasp" the point.

Maybe you don't grasp the huge difference for many lefty hitters between facing a lefty pitcher and a righty pitcher.

Have you looked at Jay Bruce's numbers against lefty pitching?

Do you pinch hit for him in the seventh inning of a close game against a loogy with the lead runner on base?

Please try to keep your comments on the issues rather than tell us who "grasps" what. Thank you.

Don't think I mentioned Bruce in my comments did I? I was talking about broad concepts not specific line ups.

Kc61
03-01-2010, 11:48 AM
Don't think I mentioned Bruce in my comments did I? I was talking about broad concepts not specific line ups.

I don't know whether you mentioned Bruce or not. The point is the same. I "grasp" it. Please just stick to the arguments and avoid insulting comments.

Ltlabner
03-01-2010, 11:52 AM
I don't know whether you mentioned Bruce or not. The point is the same. I "grasp" it. Please just stick to the arguments and avoid insulting comments.

You prob should just put me on ignore and only PM me then.

People who stick to "this sort of batter has to hit here" or "this guy is a #2 hitter because he's fast" clearly do not grasp what RedsmanRick was talking about. They have a whole different way of thinking about the game. Doesn't make them always wrong and RMR always right, but clearly they don't grasp the concept.

I've made no judgment as to whether you fall into this group or not. Nor do I really care.

Homer Bailey
03-01-2010, 11:52 AM
Yep. CF 1, SS 2, Ltlabner barfing 3




Why is this so hard for people to grasp?

Baring something weird you're facing the starter for 5 to 7 innings of the game, yet we should plan around the 2 or 3 because something possibly, maybe, might or could happen?

Makes no sense.

And Phillips cleanup is simply dumb. I know Dusty's options are limited and understand that. But why he insists on casting Phillips as a slugger mystifies me. You're telling a guy who struggles with trying to blast the ball (and consequently gets in big ruts) to go into a position stereotypically reserved for someone who tries to blast the ball.


Agree with everything here.

hebroncougar
03-01-2010, 11:54 AM
This is a key point. Excellent post.

Once again, it adds up to the Reds' problem the last few seasons. No righty batter who really belongs in the middle of the order.

The issue here really isn't hitting Votto/Bruce together. The issue is that there is no true cleanup hitter from the right side.

If the Reds had Greg Vaughn from the 1999 team available to hit cleanup, a lot of debate would have been avoided in this thread.

Actually, Gomes had a better slg. pct. against lefties last year than Vaughn did in '99.

edabbs44
03-01-2010, 11:57 AM
Actually, Gomes had a better slg. pct. against lefties last year than Vaughn did in '99.

I think the statement was around a monster RHH who can hit both lefties and righties similarly.

Kc61
03-01-2010, 12:00 PM
Actually, Gomes had a better slg. pct. against lefties last year than Vaughn did in '99.


The Reds' need at cleanup is somebody who can hit both types of pitching well. Not just lefties. Or they could platoon the cleanup spot if they had the personnel.

I use Vaughn as an example because he's the last genuine Reds cleanup hitter from the right side I remember.

The more I think about it, the more I feel that Phillips is not a disastrous choice for cleanup given the team's personnel. I prefer Rolen slightly. I don't favor Bruce at this stage.

But the truth of the matter is that the guy they need is not with the team, whomever he is. It's a weakness.

RedsManRick
03-01-2010, 12:40 PM
Just once I want somebody to ask Dusty about Phillips' splits -- give him the stats if you have to. I really want to hear him defend it.

Spring~Fields
03-01-2010, 12:59 PM
Just once I want somebody to ask Dusty about Phillips' splits -- give him the stats if you have to. I really want to hear him defend it.

He really doesn't believe in stats does he? Unless it is to selectively pull one out to try to support his position on a given player in the moment in which he finds himself, which invariably exposes his thoughts or logic in another area for other player decisions. ????

You called it long ago.


Base rate fallacy — ignoring available statistical data in favor of particulars
Confirmation bias — the tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions
Illusory correlation — beliefs that inaccurately suppose a relationship between a certain type of action and an effect

hebroncougar
03-01-2010, 01:15 PM
If you can live with Greg Vaughn as your cleanup hitter, you can live with Jonny Gomes. If the Gomes of last year shows up.......just give him the AB's.

Kc61
03-01-2010, 01:28 PM
If you can live with Greg Vaughn as your cleanup hitter, you can live with Jonny Gomes. If the Gomes of last year shows up.......just give him the AB's.

Based on last year's numbers, I would agree with you.

Particularly given the alternatives available.

Concern is how he would hold up against righty pitching over the long haul. But he has the power and his OBP numbers weren't bad.

Won't happen, but certainly a reasonable idea.

edabbs44
03-01-2010, 01:28 PM
If you can live with Greg Vaughn as your cleanup hitter, you can live with Jonny Gomes. If the Gomes of last year shows up.......just give him the AB's.

If Jonny Gomes plays this season at the level of 2009, he should easily be the cleanup hitter all season.

Spring~Fields
03-01-2010, 01:43 PM
If Jonny Gomes plays this season at the level of 2009, he should easily be the cleanup hitter all season.



Other than possibly being inflexible, or having a bout of tunnel vision, what’s stopping the boss from doing that?

The boss only gave Gomes 281 AB last year, probably underestimated or misinterpreted what he thought that he saw in Gomes.

Then again there is just something about Gomes that reminds of a Phillips, I am not sure what that is.


B. Phillips vs. Right vs. Left
AB AVG OBP SLG OPS AB AVG OBP SLG OPS
2009 438 .267 .324 .416 .740 146 .301 .342 .541 .883
2008 397 .247 .293 .383 .676 162 .296 .358 .586 .944
2007 442 .262 .310 .428 .738 208 .341 .378 .606 .984
2006 399 .268 .315 .429 .744 137 .299 .351 .423 .774
AB Total 1676 653

J. Gomes vs. Right vs. Left
AB AVG OBP SLG OPS AB AVG OBP SLG OPS
2009 180 .244 .320 .539 .859 101 .307 .369 .545 .914
2008 55 .182 .286 .309 .595 99 .182 .281 .424 .705
2007 252 .218 .302 .429 .731 96 .313 .376 .542 .918
2006 284 .187 .282 .366 .648 101 .297 .438 .614 1.052
AB Total 771 397

edabbs44
03-01-2010, 01:50 PM
Other than possibly being inflexible, or having a bout of tunnel vision, what’s stopping the boss from doing that?

The boss only gave Gomes 281 AB last year, probably underestimated or misinterpreted what he thought that he saw in Gomes.

Then again there is just something about Gomes that reminds of a Phillips, I am not sure what that is.


B. Phillips vs. Right vs. Left
AB AVG OBP SLG OPS AB AVG OBP SLG OPS
2009 438 .267 .324 .416 .740 146 .301 .342 .541 .883
2008 397 .247 .293 .383 .676 162 .296 .358 .586 .944
2007 442 .262 .310 .428 .738 208 .341 .378 .606 .984
2006 399 .268 .315 .429 .744 137 .299 .351 .423 .774
AB Total 1676 653

J. Gomes vs. Right vs. Left
AB AVG OBP SLG OPS AB AVG OBP SLG OPS
2009 180 .244 .320 .539 .859 101 .307 .369 .545 .914
2008 55 .182 .286 .309 .595 99 .182 .281 .424 .705
2007 252 .218 .302 .429 .731 96 .313 .376 .542 .918
2006 284 .187 .282 .366 .648 101 .297 .438 .614 1.052
AB Total 771 397


Having tunnel vision when it comes to statistics is also a bad thing.

Spring~Fields
03-01-2010, 01:55 PM
Having tunnel vision when it comes to statistics is also a bad thing.

That doesn't say much or tell me a lot in response to the questions above, I guess we don't have the answers, right ? ;)

A lot of the stats guys swear by the “experts” James and Chone, and those two project Gomes higher or about the same as Phillips in the stats department, I am sure that you knew that right? Seems like you would use that to support your thoughts on Gomes in the cleanup spot.


Gomes
2010 Bill James .331 .486 .817
2010 CHONE .321 .447 .768
Phillips
2010 Bill James .322 .434 .756
2010 CHONE .324 .443 .767


Of course then again, it is not up to us, but it is up to the boss, isn't it?

TRF
03-01-2010, 02:13 PM
So much made of which hand the batter is, but the split is all that matters. Votto's L/R splits last year were nearly identical, and over his career still pretty good. That's what the Reds need at #3 and #4. BP is not that guy. Problem is on the Reds Votto is the only player like that.

CesarGeronimo
03-01-2010, 02:33 PM
Just once I want somebody to ask Dusty about Phillips' splits -- give him the stats if you have to. I really want to hear him defend it.

I wish a reporter would do this!

Unless Stubbs really shines in his first full season or Dickerson leads off, the top of the order looks pretty clog-free on the bases against righties again this year with Stubbs (probable low OBP), Cabrera (low OBP), Votto (Mr. Stranded/Mr. Pitched Around) and Phillips (doesn't hit righties).

It is truly heartwarming that in this cut-throat, self-centered world that our Reds are willing to help opposing pitchers get off to such a comfortable start.

edabbs44
03-01-2010, 02:42 PM
That doesn't say much or tell me a lot in response to the questions above, I guess we don't have the answers, right ? ;)

A lot of the stats guys swear by the “experts” James and Chone, and those two project Gomes higher or about the same as Phillips in the stats department, I am sure that you knew that right? Seems like you would use that to support your thoughts on Gomes in the cleanup spot.


Gomes
2010 Bill James .331 .486 .817
2010 CHONE .321 .447 .768
Phillips
2010 Bill James .322 .434 .756
2010 CHONE .324 .443 .767


Of course then again, it is not up to us, but it is up to the boss, isn't it?

I couldn't care less about projections. I think James had Bruce in the .900 range for last year. That worked out well.

I'm a Gomes fan and think that he should be in the lineup every day to start the year. The beauty of lineups is that they can be changed 162 times to accomodate the current situation. Phillips isn't doing well? Drop him tomorrow. Gomes is mashing? Move him up. This isn't plug and play the .775 OPS in the lineup for 162 games.

I have no issue going with Phillips in the cleanup spot. To be honest, I'm not sure there is a materially better choice in the lineup, with the possible exception of Gomes (if he plays like he did last year). But even I can recognize that he may not hit righties in 2010 like he did in '09.

Spring~Fields
03-01-2010, 02:43 PM
I couldn't care less about projections.

Oh, I see, you don't care for the stats or what they indicate. I understand.

That clears that up for me, thanks, that helps me.

edabbs44
03-01-2010, 02:54 PM
Oh, I see, you don't care for the stats or what they indicate. I understand.

That clears that up for me, thanks, that helps me.

I care about stats and, to an extent, projections. But some treat projections as if that is exactly what will take place in the season and everything needs to be planned around what CHONE says, for example. And that is thr problem, treating projections as fact.

TheNext44
03-01-2010, 02:55 PM
Just once I want somebody to ask Dusty about Phillips' splits -- give him the stats if you have to. I really want to hear him defend it.

He was asked, many times, and his response has been that a batter only faces the starting pitcher 2-3 times in a game. Dusty has a history liking a set lineup so players know their roles. He is a firm believer that there is such a thing as a lead off hitter, a two hole hitter, a number 3 hitter, a cleanup hitter, etc.

Again, not defending this logic, but there it is.

nate
03-01-2010, 03:08 PM
He was asked, many times, and his response has been that a batter only faces the starting pitcher 2-3 times in a game. Dusty has a history liking a set lineup so players know their roles. He is a firm believer that there is such a thing as a lead off hitter, a two hole hitter, a number 3 hitter, a cleanup hitter, etc.

Again, not defending this logic, but there it is.

The problem is, he doesn't have the kinds of hitters who fit into those roles. Votto, maybe.

I'd still hit BP leadoff even though he's not a good on base man. This may shock some of you because my reasoning is very "intangible" and probably "total crap" but I think BP needs a "showy" part of his offensive game to go along with the "showy" part of his defensive game. In the 4-spot with Dusty in his ear, he thinks he has to hit for power because it's showy. In the 1-spot with Dusty in his ear, maybe he'd get on base more and steal a couple few which would be showy. Note, showy isn't necessarily bad if you can pull it off (think more Ricky Henderson showy and less Deion Sanders showy.)

Very suspicious thinking and shocking coming from me, I know.

bucksfan2
03-01-2010, 03:36 PM
The more things change the more they stay the same. This debate happens quite often here on RZ. I am not a huge believer in lineups. As long as you don't do anything stupid, hit Votto 8th, lead off Taveras or Patterson I am ok with a reasonable lineup. Some thoughts on the Reds lineup going into the 2010 season.

-With the exception of Votto the Reds don't have a single player who fits into a role.

-I care more about Jay Bruce becoming an offensive force than where he bats in the lineup.

-I don't mind Cabrera in the 2 hole. He isn't ideal, but if Stubbs OBP reverts to his minor league days I think you will see a lot of hit and run and action for the 1-2 slot.

-Don't like Phillips in the 4 hole but no one on the team really screams hit me cleanup.

-Stubbs and Dickerson aren't platooning. It just isn't going to happen. Platoons on paper look nice, but the game isn't played on paper.

-If Dickerson wins the LF job and plays against all righties I would like to see him in the 2 hole.

TRF
03-01-2010, 03:44 PM
Stubbs and Dickerson aren't platooning. It just isn't going to happen. Platoons on paper look nice, but the game isn't played on paper.

The 1999 Reds say hi.

westofyou
03-01-2010, 03:46 PM
The 1999 Reds say hi.

The Yamkees in the 50's say howdy do too... oh and earl weaver say hey.

bucksfan2
03-01-2010, 03:51 PM
The 1999 Reds say hi.

Mike Cammeron platooned in 1999?

TRF
03-01-2010, 03:53 PM
Nothing wrong with a platoon. maximize your personnel. McKeon shuffled 5 guys in the OF in '99. And as woy points out, the game has a long history of successful platoons.

TRF
03-01-2010, 03:54 PM
Mike Cammeron platooned in 1999?

RF was DY, Tucker and Hammonds. The latter occasionally played in CF.

Sometimes when Cameron sat, Pokey led off.

Hammonds played all three positions, was the primary defensive replacement in LF and still managed just shy of 300 PA's

bucksfan2
03-01-2010, 04:08 PM
RF was DY, Tucker and Hammonds. The latter occasionally played in CF.

Sometimes when Cameron sat, Pokey led off.

Hammonds played all three positions, was the primary defensive replacement in LF and still managed just shy of 300 PA's

One position was platooned that year. IIRC Cammeron, Vaughn, Larkin, Pokey, Casey, and Boone got the majority of starts at their respective positions. The only position that was really platooned was the RF spot.

I don't see anything different from this version of the Reds. The only position that will be platooned (baring a major injury) is the LF spot. There are many out there that don't like Stubbs game, but I just don't see him being platooned. You don't platoon a guy like Stubbs until he proves he can't hack it. I don't see that happening and don't see that happening. Dickerson may get a spot start now and then in CF to give Stubbs a break but I would be willing to bet Stubbs won't be platooned in CF.

TRF
03-01-2010, 04:12 PM
One position was platooned that year. IIRC Cammeron, Vaughn, Larkin, Pokey, Casey, and Boone got the majority of starts at their respective positions. The only position that was really platooned was the RF spot.

I don't see anything different from this version of the Reds. The only position that will be platooned (baring a major injury) is the LF spot. There are many out there that don't like Stubbs game, but I just don't see him being platooned. You don't platoon a guy like Stubbs until he proves he can't hack it. I don't see that happening and don't see that happening. Dickerson may get a spot start now and then in CF to give Stubbs a break but I would be willing to bet Stubbs won't be platooned in CF.

Your point was platoons look nice on paper. I just proved they work in baseball.

Till he proves he CAN'T hack it? He hasn't proved he CAN.

IF Stubbs and Dickerson are both on the 25 man roster, platooning them makes the most sense. CD's upside against RH pitching is MUCH better than Stubbs, and vice versa for LH pitching. And really no defensive dropoff between the two. The only guy I wouldn't platoon is Bruce, but 4 guys for 2 positions isn't a problem, especially if you can find a good partner for Gomes.

Spring~Fields
03-01-2010, 04:23 PM
The problem is, he doesn't have the kinds of hitters who fit into those roles. Votto, maybe.

I'd still hit BP leadoff even though he's not a good on base man. This may shock some of you because my reasoning is very "intangible" and probably "total crap" but I think BP needs a "showy" part of his offensive game to go along with the "showy" part of his defensive game. In the 4-spot with Dusty in his ear, he thinks he has to hit for power because it's showy. In the 1-spot with Dusty in his ear, maybe he'd get on base more and steal a couple few which would be showy. Note, showy isn't necessarily bad if you can pull it off (think more Ricky Henderson showy and less Deion Sanders showy.)

Very suspicious thinking and shocking coming from me, I know.

I would do something crazy like this

Dickerson - his past OBP, if he flops, get him out, don't have to wait until July or August
Phillips - reasons you implied, give him some doable motivation.
Bruce - because many on RZ believe he will have a good year, why not, they can be very right.
Votto - what’s one slot lower, if all these other guys and where they hit don’t matter as some say.
Rolen - still might get some pitches for Votto to see and produce himself
Stubbs - young man that we have hope in, why pressure him at the start in the leadoff spot
Hernandez
Cabrera - these last two are what they are, not necessarily easy outs either.


All subject to who and what is the starting pitching. Have to be allowed to make adjustments.

nate
03-01-2010, 04:32 PM
I would do something crazy like this

Dickerson - his past OBP, if he flops, get him out, don't have to wait until July or August
Phillips - reasons you implied, give him some doable motivation.
Bruce - because many on RZ believe he will have a good year, why not, they can be very right.
Votto - what’s one slot lower, if all these other guys and where they hit don’t matter as some say.
Rolen - still might get some pitches for Votto to see and produce himself
Stubbs - young man that we have hope in, why pressure him at the start in the leadoff spot
Hernandez
Cabrera - these last two are what they are, not necessarily easy outs either.


All subject to who and what is the starting pitching. Have to be allowed to make adjustments.

I should say that part of having BP hit leadoff is to keep him from GiDP: a "skill" he seemed to backslide into last year.

Spring~Fields
03-01-2010, 04:35 PM
I should say that part of having BP hit leadoff is to keep him from GiDP: a "skill" he seemed to backslide into last year.

Oh you're right, I had completely forgotten about that. You know he might develop and exhibit better bat control and pitch selection if he were in a spot that required it of him. (I thought that might also be a part of your thought).

nate
03-01-2010, 04:37 PM
I'd almost do:

1. best OBP guy
2. 2nd best OBP guy
3. best wOBA
4. 2nd best wOBA
5. 3rd best wOBA
6. 4th best wOBA
7. 5th best wOBA
8. 6th best wOBA
9. pitcher

Adjusting for extreme platoon splits.

nate
03-01-2010, 04:38 PM
Oh you're right, I had completely forgotten about that. You know he might develop and exhibit better bat control and pitch selection if he were in a spot that required it of him. (I thought that might also be a part of your thought).

Yes. And no knock on BP who I think is a good player and an excellent defender. I just get the sense (with no reason to back this up) that the organization has miscast him. He's doing his best in that role but it's not best suited to his game.

Spring~Fields
03-01-2010, 04:46 PM
Yes. And no knock on BP who I think is a good player and an excellent defender. I just get the sense (with no reason to back this up) that the organization has miscast him. He's doing his best in that role but it's not best suited to his game.

Yes.



I'd almost do:

1. best OBP guy
2. 2nd best OBP guy
3. best wOBA
4. 2nd best wOBA
5. 3rd best wOBA
6. 4th best wOBA
7. 5th best wOBA
8. 6th best wOBA
9. pitcher

Adjusting for extreme platoon splits.

I agree, and would be quietly happy to see it. I kind of like that one guys system with what he calls the GPA, isn't that about the same as wOBA? or am I wrong? or is that GPA more in response to OPS +?

bucksfan2
03-01-2010, 04:53 PM
Your point was platoons look nice on paper. I just proved they work in baseball.

Till he proves he CAN'T hack it? He hasn't proved he CAN.

IF Stubbs and Dickerson are both on the 25 man roster, platooning them makes the most sense. CD's upside against RH pitching is MUCH better than Stubbs, and vice versa for LH pitching. And really no defensive dropoff between the two. The only guy I wouldn't platoon is Bruce, but 4 guys for 2 positions isn't a problem, especially if you can find a good partner for Gomes.

A platoon at one position works for me. Its when platoon suggestions get more frequent based upon paper instead of reality. Sure in 1999 it worked, but basically 6 players (excluding C) were set for the season. The platoon was getting Young on the field as much as possible. I think the Reds can have a successful platoon in LF this season but that is as far as I would be willing to go.

Platoons don't work for everybody. Guys who are rhythm players, guys who need live at bats to stay fresh struggle with platoons. Just out of recent memory, Scott Hatteburg struggled when he didn't start. He even voiced displeasure about it. I think you also have to take into consideration the amount of RHP you face. IMO a strict platoon won't work because the RH hitter won't get enough at bats to stay fresh.

I forgot your hatred for Stubbs so I will end that debate with you.

Spring~Fields
03-01-2010, 04:57 PM
Platoons don't work for everybody. Guys who are rhythm players, guys who need live at bats to stay fresh struggle with platoons. Just out of recent memory, Scott Hatteburg struggled when he didn't start. He even voiced displeasure about it. I think you also have to take into consideration the amount of RHP you face. IMO a strict platoon won't work because the RH hitter won't get enough at bats to stay fresh.



I think that you have valid points, but, I never see a way for us to support it, but I do believe what you are saying above. That is one of the reasons I have so many negative reservations about the offense in the coming season, I am not so sure these potential platoons work, or will as you are suggesting and pointing out.

edabbs44
03-01-2010, 04:59 PM
I'd almost do:

1. best OBP guy
2. 2nd best OBP guy
3. best wOBA
4. 2nd best wOBA
5. 3rd best wOBA
6. 4th best wOBA
7. 5th best wOBA
8. 6th best wOBA
9. pitcher

Adjusting for extreme platoon splits.

Based on what statistics? Career numbers? The numbers of the season at that point? Their projections?

TRF
03-01-2010, 05:03 PM
A platoon at one position works for me. Its when platoon suggestions get more frequent based upon paper instead of reality. Sure in 1999 it worked, but basically 6 players (excluding C) were set for the season. The platoon was getting Young on the field as much as possible. I think the Reds can have a successful platoon in LF this season but that is as far as I would be willing to go.

Platoons don't work for everybody. Guys who are rhythm players, guys who need live at bats to stay fresh struggle with platoons. Just out of recent memory, Scott Hatteburg struggled when he didn't start. He even voiced displeasure about it. I think you also have to take into consideration the amount of RHP you face. IMO a strict platoon won't work because the RH hitter won't get enough at bats to stay fresh.

I forgot your hatred for Stubbs so I will end that debate with you.

sigh. it isn't hatred. and how do you know who is a rhythm player and who isn't? Won't every player not named Lenny Harris say they want to play everyday? Wasn't Hatteburg like 36 at the time?

As for taking into consideration the number RH's, that's easy. 2/3 you face a RH starter on average. Why weaken yourself at ANY position if you don't have to? Stubbs isn't a beast at the plate, but he does hit LH's well. Dickerson isn't a beast at the plate, but he does hit RH's well, and did so even when his PT was sporadic.

RedEye
03-01-2010, 05:08 PM
Rolen behind Phillips? why? lemme guess, "respect"

The weird thing is that Phillips has never actually earned "respect" as an "RBI man" (or at least not like the last guy who batted in the "respect" spot of Baker's lineup). Perhaps in honor of Dusty's recent explanation we should rename the cleanup spot "still learning, might steal."

bucksfan2
03-01-2010, 05:15 PM
Yes. And no knock on BP who I think is a good player and an excellent defender. I just get the sense (with no reason to back this up) that the organization has miscast him. He's doing his best in that role but it's not best suited to his game.

I don't know. I do like Phillips as a player, but I think he is his own worst enemy. I think you saw signs during his 30/30 season in which he was swinging for the fences in almost every at bat towards the end of the season. Then you saw him proclaim himself the leader of the club. When in reality people don't anoint themselves leaders, they becomes leaders. I do think the 4 hole plays games with his head, and maybe isn't his best spot in the order. But that is an issue with Phillips, not so much the Reds. If you move Votto or Rolen, guys who I would call professional hitters, you wouldn't see their plate approach change based upon the batting order. In Phillips case you do see a change.

I think I agree with Dusty says BP needs to learn to become a better RBI man. I think what Dusty is saying is that BP needs to become a more aware hitter. A better all around hitter. He needs to become more patient, pick his spots, and take what the pitcher gives him. BP seems like a guy who is always trying to tie the score or go ahead in many at bats. He tries to hit a grand slam with one runner on base. So in a sense he is miscast, but IMO that is more a result of BP and not so much the Reds.

Spring~Fields
03-01-2010, 05:30 PM
Perhaps in honor of Dusty's recent explanation we should rename the cleanup spot "still learning, might steal."

:lol:

:oops: I am going back into hibernation, unless Dusty will pay for therapy for me..........:eek:

nate
03-01-2010, 05:38 PM
Yes.




I agree, and would be quietly happy to see it. I kind of like that one guys system with what he calls the GPA, isn't that about the same as wOBA? or am I wrong? or is that GPA more in response to OPS +?

GPA is what I lacked in high school.

:cool:

I dunno what GPA is exactly.

nate
03-01-2010, 05:52 PM
I don't know. I do like Phillips as a player, but I think he is his own worst enemy. I think you saw signs during his 30/30 season in which he was swinging for the fences in almost every at bat towards the end of the season. Then you saw him proclaim himself the leader of the club. When in reality people don't anoint themselves leaders, they becomes leaders. I do think the 4 hole plays games with his head, and maybe isn't his best spot in the order. But that is an issue with Phillips, not so much the Reds. If you move Votto or Rolen, guys who I would call professional hitters, you wouldn't see their plate approach change based upon the batting order. In Phillips case you do see a change.

I think I agree with Dusty says BP needs to learn to become a better RBI man. I think what Dusty is saying is that BP needs to become a more aware hitter. A better all around hitter. He needs to become more patient, pick his spots, and take what the pitcher gives him. BP seems like a guy who is always trying to tie the score or go ahead in many at bats. He tries to hit a grand slam with one runner on base. So in a sense he is miscast, but IMO that is more a result of BP and not so much the Reds.

I think we agree.

Except for the "RBI man" thing.

One thing about BP's plate approach and him being his own worst enemy is that he's had ridiculous success swinging at the first pitch. I don't know if it's an unusual amount of success; I haven't compared him to everyone else but maybe "I rock on the first pitch" has gotten into his head.

Patrick Bateman
03-01-2010, 06:18 PM
This is much ado about nothing. If Bruce hits like he's supposed to, then he will force his way into clean-up eventually. Until, he should probably have to earn it.

Other than that, it's not like there are a ton of high quality options that are getting misued at the bottom of the line-up. O-Cab second is probably dumb, but the diferrence between having him there and maybe a Rolen there instead of in the 5 spot means very little over the long haul.

Spring~Fields
03-01-2010, 08:10 PM
GPA is what I lacked in high school.

:cool:

I dunno what GPA is exactly.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_Production_Average

Gross Production Average
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search
Gross Production Average or GPA is a baseball statistic created in 2003 by Aaron Gleeman as a refinement of On-Base Plus Slugging (OPS).[1] GPA attempts to solve two frequently cited problems with OPS. First, OPS gives equal weight to its two components, On Base Percentage (OBP) and Slugging Percentage (SLG). In fact, OBP contributes significantly more to scoring runs than SLG does. Sabermetricians have calculated that OBP is about 80% more valuable than SLG. A second problem with OPS is that it generates numbers on a scale unfamiliar to most baseball fans. For all the problems with traditional stats like batting average (AVG), baseball fans immediately know that a player batting .365 is significantly better than average, while a player batting .167 is significantly below average. But many fans don't immediately know how good a player with a 1.013 OPS is.

The basic formula for GPA is: 1.8 x OBP + SLG /4

Unlike OPS, this formula both gives proper relative weight to its two component statistics and generates a number that falls on a scale similar to the familiar batting average scale.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_Production_Average

That is the quickest reference I could find to it. I have used it several times to rate the Reds players. Doesn't matter anyway, the manager doesn't even know that OBP makes the contribution to runs scored, that it does.
Oh well. insert apathy icons here :dunno::dunno:

Let alone this GPA or the others that each of you speak of.

nate
03-01-2010, 08:25 PM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_Production_Average

Gross Production Average
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search
Gross Production Average or GPA is a baseball statistic created in 2003 by Aaron Gleeman as a refinement of On-Base Plus Slugging (OPS).[1] GPA attempts to solve two frequently cited problems with OPS. First, OPS gives equal weight to its two components, On Base Percentage (OBP) and Slugging Percentage (SLG). In fact, OBP contributes significantly more to scoring runs than SLG does. Sabermetricians have calculated that OBP is about 80% more valuable than SLG. A second problem with OPS is that it generates numbers on a scale unfamiliar to most baseball fans. For all the problems with traditional stats like batting average (AVG), baseball fans immediately know that a player batting .365 is significantly better than average, while a player batting .167 is significantly below average. But many fans don't immediately know how good a player with a 1.013 OPS is.

The basic formula for GPA is: 1.8 x OBP + SLG /4

Unlike OPS, this formula both gives proper relative weight to its two component statistics and generates a number that falls on a scale similar to the familiar batting average scale.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_Production_Average

That is the quickest reference I could find to it. I have used it several times to rate the Reds players. Doesn't matter anyway, the manager doesn't even know that OBP makes the contribution to runs scored, that it does.
Oh well. insert apathy icons here :dunno::dunno:

Let alone this GPA or the others that each of you speak of.

Ah, yes I've seen that before. I like how wOBA weights everything a batter "does" a bit better than making OBP "equal" to SLG.

Spring~Fields
03-01-2010, 08:28 PM
Ah, yes I've seen that before. I like how wOBA weights everything a batter "does" a bit better than making OBP "equal" to SLG.

That makes sense.

At least we and many of us try to understand and try to learn more and apply it. Beats just some eye ball or emotional opins. Or "Hank said" back in the day. CF bats first, SS second :barf:

Mario-Rijo
03-01-2010, 10:47 PM
Lots and lots of great points in here as well as a nice new nugget or 2 (good things come from spirited debate). I wish I could remember all of what I wanted to comment on but I'll do my best.

- On the initial post and Dusty's comments - Not at all surprising in fact that is exactly what I expected, Dusty is a creature of habit. But I think the biggest injustice in it is Bruce 6th and behind Rolen I would much rather that be opposite (at the very least). I don't have near the problem with Cabrera at the top of the lineup as others do, he is the SS so again we knew that was coming. I do think Stubbs will struggle at the top of the lineup but I also think you sometimes have to allow guys to falter to motivate them to improve.

- On Dusty in general - I could go all day here ranting about him but I will say he should have an advantage or 2 that us fans don't have. #1 He should know what motivates each of his guys on a psychological front (90% of baseball is half mental afterall) which plays a part in where to bat them (somewhat) and he should have a well defined idea of their physical (technique wise) weaknesses specifically speaking or if you prefer what they are susceptible to.

- On lineup construction - 1st of all if you are forced to put guys in a "lineup" which the game of baseball forces you to do you really should try to maximize its effectiveness to it's maximum from all points of view. 10 runs is 10 runs and can make a world of difference in your chances for winning, just imagine those 10 runs coming in 10 different games at critical junctures resulting in 10 wins. Sure it may not happen quite that way but it could and 10 wins is a big deal no matter what, so is 5 or even just 1 win (think the '99 Reds). Additionally I believe the proper lineup construction is paramount to putting each man in the lineup in a position to take advantage of his strengths and weaknesses, we have seen the change in a team when just one spot in the order is changed and the ripple effect it can have on all positions both before and after. It's not 9 individual plate appearances it's a ever revolving attack on the defense (if approached properly).

My ideal lineup(s) based on what I do know and some of my personal perceptions and what we have available to us would be the following.

Vs. RHP

Dickerson LF
Cabrera SS
Votto 1B
Rolen 3B
Bruce RF
Phillips 2B
Stubbs CF
Hernandez/Hanigan C
Pitcher

Vs. LHP

Stubbs CF
Cabrera SS
Votto 1B
Phillips 2B
Bruce RF
Rolen 3B
Gomes LF
Hernandez/Hanigan C
Pitcher

Obviously if I thought Heisey (especially) or others would make the team I would do some things differently but this is based on who I think makes the team. I don't think we have an ideal unit for scoring runs (though I believe there is more than one way to get there) I at least believe we aren't horrible at any one spot ala years past.

Spring~Fields
03-01-2010, 11:20 PM
Ah, yes I've seen that before. I like how wOBA weights everything a batter "does" a bit better than making OBP "equal" to SLG.

I shook the dust off some of this I had burried on the computer. Just another look at a different rating on them. I'm kind of new to it, so I am not even that sure of what it is telling me if anything.



Career MLB Stats OBP SLG OPS GPA
Juan Francisco .384 .598 .982 0.3223
Joey Votto .388 .536 .924 0.3086
Scott Rolen .370 .498 .868 0.2910
Chris Dickerson .383 .440 .823 0.2823
Jonny Gomes .330 .471 .801 0.2662
Jay Bruce .309 .460 .769 0.2540
Drew Stubbs .323 .439 .762 0.2551
Ramon Hernandez .327 .417 .744 0.2514
Brandon Phillips .312 .430 .742 0.2479
Ryan Hanigan .363 .341 .704 0.2486
Laynce Nix .277 .421 .698 0.2299
Wladimir Balentien .281 .374 .655 0.2199
Drew Sutton .297 .348 .645 0.2206
Paul Janish .290 .292 .582 0.2035

Career Minor League Stats due to small samples involved above
Jay Bruce .366 .551 .917 0.3024 5 Seasons
Joey Votto .386 .477 .862 0.2929 7 Seasons
Wladimir Balentien .345 .526 .871 0.2867 6 Seasons
Todd Frazier .367 .491 .858 0.2879 3 Seasons
Chris Heisey .369 .460 .830 0.2810 4 Seasons
Laynce Nix .346 .481 .827 0.2759 9 Seasons
Drew Sutton .378 .442 .820 0.2806 6 Seasons
Juan Francisco .311 .482 .793 0.2604 4 Seasons
Chris Dickerson .363 .414 .776 0.2668 7 Seasons
Drew Stubbs .364 .401 .765 0.2640 4 Seasons
Paul Janish .351 .382 .733 0.2534 5 Seasons

nate
03-02-2010, 10:12 AM
I shook the dust off some of this I had burried on the computer. Just another look at a different rating on them. I'm kind of new to it, so I am not even that sure of what it is telling me if anything.



Career MLB Stats OBP SLG OPS GPA
Juan Francisco .384 .598 .982 0.3223
Joey Votto .388 .536 .924 0.3086
Scott Rolen .370 .498 .868 0.2910
Chris Dickerson .383 .440 .823 0.2823
Jonny Gomes .330 .471 .801 0.2662
Jay Bruce .309 .460 .769 0.2540
Drew Stubbs .323 .439 .762 0.2551
Ramon Hernandez .327 .417 .744 0.2514
Brandon Phillips .312 .430 .742 0.2479
Ryan Hanigan .363 .341 .704 0.2486
Laynce Nix .277 .421 .698 0.2299
Wladimir Balentien .281 .374 .655 0.2199
Drew Sutton .297 .348 .645 0.2206
Paul Janish .290 .292 .582 0.2035

Career Minor League Stats due to small samples involved above
Jay Bruce .366 .551 .917 0.3024 5 Seasons
Joey Votto .386 .477 .862 0.2929 7 Seasons
Wladimir Balentien .345 .526 .871 0.2867 6 Seasons
Todd Frazier .367 .491 .858 0.2879 3 Seasons
Chris Heisey .369 .460 .830 0.2810 4 Seasons
Laynce Nix .346 .481 .827 0.2759 9 Seasons
Drew Sutton .378 .442 .820 0.2806 6 Seasons
Juan Francisco .311 .482 .793 0.2604 4 Seasons
Chris Dickerson .363 .414 .776 0.2668 7 Seasons
Drew Stubbs .364 .401 .765 0.2640 4 Seasons
Paul Janish .351 .382 .733 0.2534 5 Seasons


It would be interesting to see how the GPA rankings compare to wOBA.

membengal
03-02-2010, 10:15 AM
Only line-up eyebrow raising I have on an annual basis at this point is Dusty's refusal to drop Brandon P. down in the line-up when they are facing a righty. Phillips clean-up against lefties and sixth (or seventh) against righties would be ideal.

pahster
03-02-2010, 10:17 AM
This is much ado about nothing. If Bruce hits like he's supposed to, then he will force his way into clean-up eventually. Until, he should probably have to earn it.


I seem to recall Adam Dunn hitting fifth and sixth an awful lot during the latter portion of his Reds career.

RedsManRick
03-02-2010, 10:19 AM
I seem to recall Adam Dunn hitting fifth and sixth an awful lot during the latter portion of his Reds career.

HR equals RBI and RBI dudes hit 5th or 6th. Duh.

bucksfan2
03-02-2010, 10:25 AM
One thing about BP's plate approach and him being his own worst enemy is that he's had ridiculous success swinging at the first pitch. I don't know if it's an unusual amount of success; I haven't compared him to everyone else but maybe "I rock on the first pitch" has gotten into his head.

I don't put a whole lot of faith in that stat. It only records an avg when a ball is put in play. If BP swings through a first pitch, is fold badly, fouls the ball off it doesn't record anything. I think too often BP swings at bad pitches, Im a little rusty but I do recall BP swinging at a lot of unhittable pitches.

I think if BP would be a little more patient, find himself in more hitters counts, he would become a much better hitter. I would imagine you have a much better success rate starting out 1-0 than 0-1.