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View Full Version : Who will be the best overall pitcher at AAA



TRF
03-05-2010, 04:15 PM
Best starting pitcher that is. Assuming we'll see promotions from AA, win totals should be left out. It has to be rate numbers. K/9, H/9 etc. plug in anything you want except W's and L's. AAA numbers only, no AA or MLB #'s

membengal
03-05-2010, 04:26 PM
I'll take Chapman for the eight weeks he will be done there until his June 1 call-up.

TRF
03-05-2010, 04:38 PM
BTW, I went with Wood. I think he's on the verge of being a force, and wants to prove last year wasn't a fluke.

dougdirt
03-05-2010, 05:21 PM
Went with Wood because I think he spends the full season there and puts up the total line where as the other guys probably won't be there a full season who can compete with the numbers he will likely put up. Darkhorse is Klinker though.

Kc61
03-05-2010, 05:58 PM
Question is who will be the best overall pitcher.

Chapman will be the best overall pitcher at AAA.

RedsManRick
03-05-2010, 08:55 PM
I went with Leake. I think Wood spends the full season there, but falls back to earth a bit -- Maloney territory (which certainly isn't anything to sneeze at).

Chapman makes it to Cincy in late May while Leake takes his spot in AAA and dominates.

mace
03-05-2010, 10:39 PM
Tough call between Wood and Lehr for me. I went with Wood because Lehr is more likely to spend time in Cincinnati. It surprises me, though, that Lehr is getting no support. The guy has been a AAA ace the last couple years, and he appears to be stronger this time around.

mace
03-05-2010, 10:40 PM
And wouldn't it be nice if Thompson actually put himself in that photo?

klw
03-05-2010, 10:42 PM
I went with Wood for the same reasons put forth by Doug. Im surprised that Maloney is not an option on the poll however.

OnBaseMachine
03-05-2010, 11:57 PM
Went with Wood because I think he spends the full season there and puts up the total line where as the other guys probably won't be there a full season who can compete with the numbers he will likely put up. Darkhorse is Klinker though.

I agree. I think Chapman will be in Cincy by late May/early June and Leake will probably start in Carolina, then move to Louisville for a short time before reaching Cincy. Wood will most likely spend the majority of the season in Louisville with a chance at a late season callup. I think he'll post an ERA around 2.75-3.10 with a K/9 of around 7.0.

I also agree that Matt Klinker is a sleeper.

TRF
03-06-2010, 11:17 PM
I agree. I think Chapman will be in Cincy by late May/early June and Leake will probably start in Carolina, then move to Louisville for a short time before reaching Cincy. Wood will most likely spend the majority of the season in Louisville with a chance at a late season callup. I think he'll post an ERA around 2.75-3.10 with a K/9 of around 7.0.

I also agree that Matt Klinker is a sleeper.

I am probably the only person that thinks Chapman might spend the whole year in Louisville. I really think Maloney is going to surprise a lot of people as the Reds 5th starter.

GIDP
03-07-2010, 11:07 PM
Wood but only because I think hes the only one that will see extended time at AAA out of the other obvious names.

Daryl Thompson is still on my list though.

GIDP
03-07-2010, 11:11 PM
Of the pitchers on the list I think Leake is the best overall one at the moment though.

Betterread
03-07-2010, 11:45 PM
Why would Leake be pushed to AAA and Cincinnati (unless there is a current starter traded?) when he is #3 or #4 starter?
I think he will spend a lot of time in AA this year and very likely even start out at high A, unless his stuff is a lot better this year than previously advertised.

GIDP
03-08-2010, 12:07 AM
Why would Leake be pushed to AAA and Cincinnati (unless there is a current starter traded?) when he is #3 or #4 starter?
I think he will spend a lot of time in AA this year and very likely even start out at high A, unless his stuff is a lot better this year than previously advertised.

His stuff is a lot better than people give him credit for.

dougdirt
03-08-2010, 01:29 AM
Why would Leake be pushed to AAA and Cincinnati (unless there is a current starter traded?) when he is #3 or #4 starter?
I think he will spend a lot of time in AA this year and very likely even start out at high A, unless his stuff is a lot better this year than previously advertised.

Leake has 3 above average pitches with his fastball (good moving 88-92 MPH that touches 94), a plus slider, a plus change up and he also throws a curveball that is at least an average pitch. All of which he can throw for strikes. Toss in his plus control and his upside is incredibly understated.

klw
03-08-2010, 07:39 AM
I would not be surprised to see Leake start at AA and Chapman at Lynchburg with the expectation they will quickly be bumped up to AAA. (Maybe by May) Sending Chapmen to the new affiliate make good PR sense to build brand loyalty and allows him to start in a low pressure environment. Of course if his performance may make it impossible to start him that low.

bucksfan2
03-08-2010, 11:31 AM
I am probably the only person that thinks Chapman might spend the whole year in Louisville. I really think Maloney is going to surprise a lot of people as the Reds 5th starter.

Im pretty sure he will spend some time in Cincy. That being the time he spends after rosters expand in Sept. I just don't see any way the Reds don't bring him up to Cincy this season. I do agree that he spends the meaningful part of the season in the minors.

mace
03-08-2010, 11:39 AM
I still find it astonishing that, out of 51 votes, there's not a single one for Justin Lehr. I mean, the question is who will have the best season at AAA. Over the last two years at Louisville, Lehr is 14-3 with a 2.32 ERA. This year, after skipping winter ball, he is reportedly stronger. He is also a longshot to make the Reds, which means that he'll probably again be working in a league that he has apparently mastered.

That said, I didn't vote for him, either (although it was a close call). It certainly speaks to the compelling concentration of talent at that level. It's just weird that he would be so neglected . . .

OnBaseMachine
03-08-2010, 12:40 PM
Why would Leake be pushed to AAA and Cincinnati (unless there is a current starter traded?) when he is #3 or #4 starter?
I think he will spend a lot of time in AA this year and very likely even start out at high A, unless his stuff is a lot better this year than previously advertised.

Leake has great stuff. As Doug said, he's got four quality pitches and plus-plus command. Great stuff isn't just defined by how hard you throw. Don't expect to see him in High-A because the Reds have already said he'll begin the season in Double-A Carolina.

OnBaseMachine
03-08-2010, 01:31 PM
Article on Travis Wood from Louisville's website:

http://louisville.bats.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100308&content_id=8711558&vkey=news_t416&fext=.jsp&sid=t416

Betterread
03-09-2010, 08:16 PM
Leake has 3 above average pitches with his fastball (good moving 88-92 MPH that touches 94), a plus slider, a plus change up and he also throws a curveball that is at least an average pitch. All of which he can throw for strikes. Toss in his plus control and his upside is incredibly understated.
That sounds awesome. We have no-one at the ML level with 3 plus pitches and plus control. You make him sound like a surefire ace. Let's hope so.

Degenerate39
03-09-2010, 11:49 PM
I doubt Chapman will be in Triple A for much more than 2 or 3 starts. I think he'll be in a lower class to begin with then get moved up for Triple A for a the last few weeks then when June comes around he'll be with the Reds

Scrap Irony
03-09-2010, 11:52 PM
If Chapman continues to pitch well, he's going to be the fifth starter in Cincinnati at the beginning of the season. Cincinnati brass will insist he'll sell tickets (and he may), while the on-field staff likes his talent.

Betterread
03-10-2010, 12:11 AM
Leake has 3 above average pitches with his fastball (good moving 88-92 MPH that touches 94), a plus slider, a plus change up and he also throws a curveball that is at least an average pitch. All of which he can throw for strikes. Toss in his plus control and his upside is incredibly understated.

Chapman hit 100 MPH today. His slider moved more than a foot. You and OBM say Leake has better stuff than that. I really want to see what Leake that is better than that.

OnBaseMachine
03-10-2010, 12:19 AM
Chapman hit 100 MPH today. His slider moved more than a foot. You and OBM say Leake has better stuff than that. I really want to see what Leake that is better than that.

Um, no where did I say Leake had better stuff than Chapman. I'm not sure where in the world you came up with that idea.

dougdirt
03-10-2010, 04:00 AM
Um, no where did I say Leake had better stuff than Chapman. I'm not sure where in the world you came up with that idea.

Ditto.

BLEEDS
03-10-2010, 10:54 AM
I doubt Chapman will be in Triple A for much more than 2 or 3 starts. I think he'll be in a lower class to begin with then get moved up for Triple A for a the last few weeks then when June comes around he'll be with the Reds

I believe you are spot-on. This is the best case scenario.

The same talk is being bantered about re: Strasburg. Give your affiliates a bone - let him play some games at AA and then AAA, early in the season when people don't really get excited for MiLB.
Let him prove that MiL hitters pose him no challenge, then bring him up.

In our case there's the little issue of saving $10-$15M and perhaps another year of control under his current contract.
Also, I think the "cultural" adaption is something that has not been brought up much. I think he will feel MORE comfortable with the Big League team - there are more guys that speak spanish there, etc... although starting out in the Majors he doesn't get a feel for the "transition" from Cuba to the BrightLights/BigCity that being a major leaguer commands, let him get a taste of the minor leagues first, to get an appreciation.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

TRF
03-10-2010, 12:17 PM
Chapman is under the Reds control for 6 years, regardless of when he is called up. His contract has nothing to do with that. In fact, I believe there is nothing in his contract that can void the MLB players agreement regarding control of a player. All his contract does is change from salary to bonus money regarding his arbitration status.

Potentially, IF he reached his ceiling right away, it could cost the Reds an additional 10-15 mil over the life of his current contract, or what comes to an additional 3 million per year. If it goes the full 6 years, we are talking $45 mil over 5 years. He'll be paid 1 mil for this year. And if he does indeed reach said ceiling this year and maintains it, it averages 9 mil per year, but the big money won't take place until, what year 3? 4? Well after Harang, Arroyo and possibly even BP come off the books. Rolen too.

I am soooo not worried about the contract. IMO it should be a non issue, especially regarding his development.

The Reds retain his rights for six years (I believe) regardless. I really think there needs to be a sticky just for chapman's contract.

dougdirt
03-10-2010, 02:32 PM
Chapman is under the Reds control for 6 years, regardless of when he is called up. His contract has nothing to do with that. In fact, I believe there is nothing in his contract that can void the MLB players agreement regarding control of a player. All his contract does is change from salary to bonus money regarding his arbitration status.

Potentially, IF he reached his ceiling right away, it could cost the Reds an additional 10-15 mil over the life of his current contract, or what comes to an additional 3 million per year. If it goes the full 6 years, we are talking $45 mil over 5 years. He'll be paid 1 mil for this year. And if he does indeed reach said ceiling this year and maintains it, it averages 9 mil per year, but the big money won't take place until, what year 3? 4? Well after Harang, Arroyo and possibly even BP come off the books. Rolen too.

I am soooo not worried about the contract. IMO it should be a non issue, especially regarding his development.

The Reds retain his rights for six years (I believe) regardless. I really think there needs to be a sticky just for chapman's contract.
However just like everything else. If the Reds wait until June 1st to call him up they can control his first 6 years as 2011-2016 rather than 2010-2015. That is likely a very large difference. You also run the risk of him becoming a Super 2, which would put him at just 5 years, so perhaps 2010-2014 is all we get.

membengal
03-10-2010, 08:03 PM
Chapman is under the Reds control for 6 years, regardless of when he is called up. His contract has nothing to do with that. In fact, I believe there is nothing in his contract that can void the MLB players agreement regarding control of a player. All his contract does is change from salary to bonus money regarding his arbitration status.

Potentially, IF he reached his ceiling right away, it could cost the Reds an additional 10-15 mil over the life of his current contract, or what comes to an additional 3 million per year. If it goes the full 6 years, we are talking $45 mil over 5 years. He'll be paid 1 mil for this year. And if he does indeed reach said ceiling this year and maintains it, it averages 9 mil per year, but the big money won't take place until, what year 3? 4? Well after Harang, Arroyo and possibly even BP come off the books. Rolen too.

I am soooo not worried about the contract. IMO it should be a non issue, especially regarding his development.

The Reds retain his rights for six years (I believe) regardless. I really think there needs to be a sticky just for chapman's contract.

Dear god, yes. Please. It infects damn near every Chapman thread. Everywhere.

Scrap Irony
03-10-2010, 08:55 PM
Agreed.

membengal
03-10-2010, 09:08 PM
Agreed.

It's in the process of eating the latest Chapman thread on ORG. It makes me sad.

BLEEDS
03-10-2010, 09:54 PM
Maybe if we didn't have so many Chapman threads, we wouldn't have so many Chapman contract discussions?

Just a thought ;)

PEACE

-BLEEDS

membengal
03-11-2010, 06:46 AM
Horse hockey. There are just two threads on Chapman on page one of ORG. This thread isn't even directly about Chapman. And I only see one on Chapman on page one this forum. And yet, the contract zealots must high-jack every Chapman thread or even close to Chapman threads with arcane arguments over what may or may not be an issue. It is tiresome.

BLEEDS
03-11-2010, 11:43 AM
Well unfortunately I think it is just part of the hoopla right now.

So, I guess it's only in 3 threads. Whew!

PEACE

-BLEEDS