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Benihana
03-16-2010, 06:26 PM
Come summertime, which pieces should the Reds be dangling as attractive trade bait in order to fill more pressing needs and strengthen weaker positions?

1. Yonder Alonso- It is becoming clear that Joey Votto isn't going anywhere. Whether or not Alonso can play anywhere but 1B, and whether he will ever be able to hit lefties remains to be seen. If he hits well to start the season, he should be used to attract a bigger need come June or July.

2. Travis Wood- While it is never advisable to trade away young talented pitching (especially southpaws), Wood's value may never be higher than it is right now. He is coming off a career year in the Southern League, and could perform well in Louisville to start the season. However, he is behind Bailey, Cueto, Volquez, Chapman, and Leake on the pitching depth chart, and most do not project him to be a major impact starter in the major leagues. If the young pitchers continue to progress in the first couple months of the season and Volquez looks good in rehab, I would like to sell high on Wood to get value in return.

3. Jared Burton- While he has been up and down at the major league level, the emergence of Nick Masset has made him expendable. I'd actually like to keep Francisco Cordero around until the end of his contract, particularly assuming this is Harang and Arroyo's last year in Cincy. We should have at least one veteran mentor for the staff, and while it would be nice to have a cheaper option, Cordero could provide great mentorship and tutelage for the young Hispanic pitchers like Cueto, Volquez, and of course Chapman. Additionally, Micah Owings should help in the 'Pen, Bill Bray should conceivably return from injury, and Carlos Fisher has proven he can contribute in the late innings.

4. Logan Ondrusek- Similar reasons to Burton, but also if/when Jose Arredondo shows that he is recovering nicely from TJ surgery, Ondrusek could be attractive as a young, late inning arm to another team. If there is one thing the Reds have been pretty good about being able to produce (either through development or acquisition), it is bullpen arms. Between Masset, Owings, Fisher, Arredondo, Burton, Ondrusek, and now Jordan Smith, there will only be room for so many to contribute going forward, especially if Cordero is still here.

5. Chris Heisey- This all depends on what we see from Chris Dickerson, Wladimir Balentien, Drew Stubbs, and Juan Francisco in the first couple months of 2010. If two or more of those guys look like major league regulars, there is no reason to keep so many young OFs with value. If Heisey continues to perform but is blocked by any/all of the above, move him for better value. He also probably doesn't have the upside that some of the others do. Coming off a career year, deal him if he continues to perform. He will be 26, and we have more talented guys who are younger. I could see the Billy Beane being interested (see Denorfia, Chris and Rosales, Adam).

6. Orlando Cabrera- If Zach Cozart can hit well consistently in Louisville, Cabrera and his postseason experience could be an attractive piece for a contender (that includes the Reds) come July. Billy Beane has been known to pull these kind of 1/2 year flips, so why shouldn't his mentor be able to? With Cozart, Janish, and possibly a young SS (R.Brignac, Y.Escobar, or G.Green?) from outside the organization coming over via trade, Cabrera and his relatively inexpensive deal could be expendable.

Of course, if the Reds are not contending come July, Bronson Arroyo, Aaron Harang, Arthur Rhodes, Orlando Cabrera, and possibly Brandon Phillips (only if Frazier proves he can play 2B well) could all be guys who could be dealt. Hopefully, that scenario does not come to fruition.

Kc61
03-16-2010, 06:35 PM
Don't weaken your bullpen with a lot of maybes. It's too important.
If Burton is back to form, keep him. Keep Ondrusek and Del Rosario.

Relievers don't bring back much anyway, don't give up your bullpen depth.

hebroncougar
03-16-2010, 06:48 PM
I'd say Alonso, Burton, and Cabrera. I'm not sure I'd touch the other ones, unless I'm really in the thick of it and think I have a serious shot. On the other hand, Walt dealt a lot of prospects in his days with the Cards, so it wouldn't surprise me to see him deal any of the minor league talent the Reds have.

Superdude
03-16-2010, 07:40 PM
If we're still in the race come summer and there's a weak spot in the outfield, Wood and Alonso would be an interesting package I think I could bear parting with.

TheNext44
03-16-2010, 07:44 PM
I still think the Reds best trade candidate is Rhodes. Coming off a great year, cheap contract, easily replaceable. Should be able to get some nice prospects for him at the trading deadline, whether the Reds are contending or not.

Benihana
03-16-2010, 09:14 PM
I still think the Reds best trade candidate is Rhodes. Coming off a great year, cheap contract, easily replaceable. Should be able to get some nice prospects for him at the trading deadline, whether the Reds are contending or not.

I agree with you and actually argued this very point during the offseason to no avail. At this time, however, I can't imagine Walt is going to be dealing any vets. That's why the majority of people listed as trade bait fall under the prospect classification.

mth123
03-16-2010, 09:16 PM
There is enough depth that just about anyone but Votto, Bruce, Bailey, Chapman, Leake and Cueto should be on the table.

Alonso is blocked and Francisco probably ends up at the same spot. Stubbs or Heisey. Vailaka or Frazier. Maloney or Wood. Del Rosario or Fisher. Ondrusek or Burton. Viola or Valiquette. The Reds should be able to put together a package to get anyone they can afford and still have a similar alternative to backfill for the guys dealt.

Guacarock
03-16-2010, 09:26 PM
If the Reds are in the thick of a pennant chase, Jocketty will hold onto the veterans until the off-season, and deal prospects to shore up any needs.

But if we fall out of the running by mid-summer, then I'd look for either Arroyo or Harang or both of them to be dealt. In addition, I'm sure he would entertain offers for other vets as well.

Rhodes would be among the first to go, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Phillips put on the trading block (before his big 2011 payday), as well as Cabrera and Cordero if the return was good. We do seem to have many suitable (younger, cheaper, talented) replacements emerging in-house.

Our position in the standings really will dictate whether Jocketty leans more toward dealing off kids or the vets.

Benihana
03-16-2010, 09:30 PM
There is enough depth that just about anyone but Votto, Bruce, Bailey, Chapman, Leake and Cueto should be on the table.

Alonso is blocked and Francisco probably ends up at the same spot. Stubbs or Heisey. Vailaka or Frazier. Maloney or Wood. Del Rosario or Fisher. Ondrusek or Burton. Viola or Valiquette. The Reds should be able to put together a package to get anyone they can afford and still have a similar alternative to backfill for the guys dealt.

Agree with most of this, although I'll disagree with the notion that Frazier and Valaika are remotely interchangeable. Frazier and Francisco, or Frazier and Alonso maybe.

mth123
03-16-2010, 09:35 PM
Agree with most of this, although I'll disagree with the notion that Frazier and Valaika are remotely interchangeable. Frazier and Francisco, or Frazier and Alonso maybe.

I'm not as high on Frazier as most on here, but if I had to pick one to keep and one to deal, I'd keep Frazier and deal Valaika. Valaika may actually play enough defense to start at 2B in the bigs. I don't think Frazier ever will, but I'd rather have Frazier as a supersub or in the corners though as a 1B or COF I think his bat is a little light.

HokieRed
03-16-2010, 11:27 PM
Don't weaken your bullpen with a lot of maybes. It's too important.
If Burton is back to form, keep him. Keep Ondrusek and Del Rosario.

Relievers don't bring back much anyway, don't give up your bullpen depth.


Agree 100%. This is cheap bullpen depth. Remember the days of Mike Stanton and Rheal Cormier.

Benihana
03-17-2010, 12:03 AM
I'm not as high on Frazier as most on here, but if I had to pick one to keep and one to deal, I'd keep Frazier and deal Valaika. Valaika may actually play enough defense to start at 2B in the bigs. I don't think Frazier ever will, but I'd rather have Frazier as a supersub or in the corners though as a 1B or COF I think his bat is a little light.

Fair enough. I see Frazier as perhaps a supersub until Rolen is either injured or ready to hang 'em up. I see him as the 3B for the forseeable future at that point.

I see Valaika as another in the long line of Drew Sutton, Adam Rosales, etc. At best he is another Jeff Keppinger.

Ron Madden
03-17-2010, 06:58 AM
I'd trade anyone in the organization for the right return.

I'd sure as heck trade Rhodes before his value takes a nose dive.

mth123
03-17-2010, 07:32 AM
I'd trade anyone in the organization for the right return.

I'd sure as heck trade Rhodes before his value takes a nose dive.

Rhodes is one of the few guys the Reds don't have a replacement for. Viola and Valiquette can't get it over and Bray isn't healthy. Wood to the pen might work. Rhodes could probably fetch something, but if the Reds are trying to win, I think trading Rhodes weakens the pen more than trading any of the others. Maybe those clamoring for Chapman to start the year in the pen would get their wish if Rhodes is dealt. That might be the best thing for the Reds, but maybe not for Chapman.

If this year is a punt like maybe it should be, then deal him before the season starts and don't worry about it I suppose.

bucksfan2
03-17-2010, 09:50 AM
Rhodes is one of the few guys the Reds don't have a replacement for. Viola and Valiquette can't get it over and Bray isn't healthy. Wood to the pen might work. Rhodes could probably fetch something, but if the Reds are trying to win, I think trading Rhodes weakens the pen more than trading any of the others. Maybe those clamoring for Chapman to start the year in the pen would get their wish if Rhodes is dealt. That might be the best thing for the Reds, but maybe not for Chapman.

If this year is a punt like maybe it should be, then deal him before the season starts and don't worry about it I suppose.

Rhodes has spent a large portion of his career as a closer. That experience is worth quite a bit, especially coming out of the pen in the or 8th inning. Rhodes stuff wasn't great last season, but he was successful in getting people out last year. IMO there is an art to coming out of the pen and getting people out late in the game. Its why a guy like Rhodes is valuable and tough to replace. I wasn't in favor of the signing last year but Rhodes was very productive.

The last thing I want is the Reds to place valuable innings at the start of the season with an unproven rookie. Let him work his way into the pen. There is no sense in trading Rhodes early in the year. As the season progresses you may see Rhodes moved.

mth123
03-21-2010, 12:00 PM
Joe Nathan having TJ Surgery. Kerry Wood out 2 months. Bobby Jenks getting an MRI.

That glut of arms in the pen could make for some interesting possibilities. Logan Ondrusek is having a big spring. I can't see him netting much and I don't see Cordero, Masset or Rhodes going, but with guys like Ondrusek, Fisher, Del Rosario etc all seeming somewhat capable in the middle, and guys like Maloney and Owings probably in the pen, teams may take a look for help in the middle innings while promoting others to more significant roles.

Maybe some desperate team will take Lincoln off the Reds hands. Maybe the Reds will feel comforstable backfilling from within and make a Jared Burton available. Lots of possible scenarios and I think we may see a deal before spring is over. Just a hunch. I'm the last guy to have any inside info.

RedsManRick
03-21-2010, 12:33 PM
Rhodes is one of the few guys the Reds don't have a replacement for. Viola and Valiquette can't get it over and Bray isn't healthy. Wood to the pen might work. Rhodes could probably fetch something, but if the Reds are trying to win, I think trading Rhodes weakens the pen more than trading any of the others. Maybe those clamoring for Chapman to start the year in the pen would get their wish if Rhodes is dealt. That might be the best thing for the Reds, but maybe not for Chapman.

If this year is a punt like maybe it should be, then deal him before the season starts and don't worry about it I suppose.

What role do you see Rhodes playing exactly? If it's just the LOOGY, than Danny Rey Herrera fits there -- at which point you just need any generic, decent middle reliever to step in.

mth123
03-21-2010, 12:49 PM
What role do you see Rhodes playing exactly? If it's just the LOOGY, than Danny Rey Herrera fits there -- at which point you just need any generic, decent middle reliever to step in.

I think Rhodes is going to be the late inning lefty. He and Masset will pitch the 8th. Remembering that neither can pitch every day, Rhodes will surely make some late innng loogy apprearances, but he'll also be the 8th inning guy a lot of the time.

Personally, depending on Bray's health and effectiveness, I'd be ok with dealing Rhodes for a good return. I could also see Chapman possibly filling that role in August and September after he's pitched most of his inning limit for the year. If some one like Mace Thurman or Donnie Joseph comes fast that would probably be a more long term (as these things go) solution. I don't like the idea of Viola since he just can't get it over. Valiquette is younger so I haven't given up on him, but he has a long way to go controlwise IMO.

Ron Madden
03-21-2010, 12:59 PM
The Reds have a chance to get something of value in return for Rhodes right now. I'm afraid he will have little to no value at the trading deadline.

mth123
03-21-2010, 01:25 PM
The Reds have a chance to get something of value in return for Rhodes right now. I'm afraid he will have little to no value at the trading deadline.

That's potentially true and since I think the 2010 offense is hopeless I'd do it and fill in with other guys (its not like the Reds will be creating a huge inning hole like they would be dealing Harang or Arroyo). But the Reds think they are contenders and won't risk making a late inning hole in the pen IMO.

Spring~Fields
03-21-2010, 01:39 PM
The Reds have a chance to get something of value in return for Rhodes right now. I'm afraid he will have little to no value at the trading deadline.

I don’t understand. :confused:

The Reds have already upgraded :thumbup:

Stubbs over Dickerson/Tevaras
Cabrera over Janish
Rolen over EE
Gomes over Dickerson, Balentien, and Nix
Hernandez over Hannigan
Bruce improved over Bruce past, per RZ members
Phillips has learned to be an RBI man upgrade over past Phillips, per Mr. Baker
Pitching coach Price over that other guy, per Jocketty
Upgraded their defense

:jump: yea, yippee, the crowd cheers and roars with approval and delight...........

So with all those upgrades, :rolleyes: and the Reds still need more, why ?

Plus they have an army of great prospects waiting in the wings according to the media and fans.

They have so much pitching, they can't find a place for them according to the media, RZ members, the Reds and coaches, and the fans in general.

I forgot one. Projections have them with huge runs scored increases per RZ members

Why would they need more ? :)

Kc61
03-21-2010, 01:45 PM
Reds should sit tight unless they can address one of two needs by trade.

Those two needs are a big righty bat to hit between Votto and Bruce.
And a true number one starter along the lines of Halliday.

That's what the Reds need to be a top team.

Unless they are about to do a blockbuster transaction for a cleanup hitter or number one starter, they should sit tight right now. They have a decent ballclub with some young kids coming up.

RedsManRick
03-21-2010, 01:49 PM
The Reds have a chance to get something of value in return for Rhodes right now. I'm afraid he will have little to no value at the trading deadline.

I'm curious what makes you say this. It seems to me that relievers are always in demand at the trade deadline. Unless Rhodes falls apart this year, I'm not sure why he wouldn't be an attractive option. And other than his age, we don't have much reason to expect him to fall off that much.

I certainly would not be shopping him until and unless either we fall out of contention or one of the young AAA guys is clearly ready to step in -- as the return on any reliever is usually not terribly impactful. But if and when we decide to shop him, I think there will be a decent market for his services.

Kc61
03-21-2010, 01:52 PM
I'm curious what makes you say this. It seems to me that relievers are always in demand at the trade deadline. Unless Rhodes falls apart this year, I'm not sure why he wouldn't be an attractive option. And other than his age, we don't have much reason to expect him to fall off that much.

I certainly would not be shopping him until and unless either we fall out of contention or one of the young AAA guys is clearly ready to step in -- as the return on any reliever is usually not terribly impactful. But if and when we decide to shop him, I think there will be a decent market for his services.

The Reds need Rhodes this year.

Ron Madden
03-21-2010, 01:56 PM
I'm curious what makes you say this. It seems to me that relievers are always in demand at the trade deadline. Unless Rhodes falls apart this year, I'm not sure why he wouldn't be an attractive option. And other than his age, we don't have much reason to expect him to fall off that much.

Relief Pitching is very volatile. I think Rhodes is becoming more hittable and I'm afraid more of those balls will fall in for base hits. JMHO

mbgrayson
03-21-2010, 02:01 PM
Joe Nathan having TJ Surgery. Kerry Wood out 2 months. Bobby Jenks getting an MRI.

That glut of arms in the pen could make for some interesting possibilities....

So lets trade Francisco Cordero. He is over-priced, his strike out rate is dropping, and his WHIP is too high. He gave up very few HRs last year, and that will likely increase.

In return, we get a prospect or two, and make room for taking on some mid-season payroll. Massett can close.

I know that this won't happen, but keeping Cordero at $12 million per year (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3132037)is just wrong.

mth123
03-21-2010, 02:14 PM
So lets trade Francisco Cordero. He is over-priced, his strike out rate is dropping, and his WHIP is too high. He gave up very few HRs last year, and that will likely increase.

In return, we get a prospect or two, and make room for taking on some mid-season payroll. Massett can close.

I know that this won't happen, but keeping Cordero at $12 million per year (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3132037)is just wrong.

I'd do it. My goals are a little lower. Maybe Burton for a young catcher who can hit a little at AAA or find some one to take Lincoln off the Reds hands.

The Sox don't have a replacement for the FA to be Paul Konerko and our guy is blocked. How about Burton and Alonso for Tyler Flowers and a lower level guy.

Burton could fit in the middle of that pen should guys like Putz, Linebrink and Thornton end up having to close and Alonso allows them a lot of options wth Konerko's cash and the DH spot should Konerko come back.

Flowers would be the catcher of the future and address a need for the coming window.

TheNext44
03-21-2010, 02:22 PM
Relief Pitching is very volatile. I think Rhodes is becoming more hittable and I'm afraid more of those balls will fall in for base hits. JMHO

I completely agree. Rhodes is coming off a great year, he's almost 40, and he's replaceable. He might have the same value at the trading deadline, but there's just a good a chance that he's hurt, or having a bad year.

As mth123 pointed out, there is a need right now for him. Might as well take advantage of it.

traderumor
03-21-2010, 02:37 PM
Re: Rhodes

Yes, relievers are volatile. Identifying them consistently would win anyone a front office job anywhere in MLB. Rhodes is in the same role as last year until he is clearly in a "down" year. Rhodes being 40 means little. The dude has a young body.

RED VAN HOT
03-21-2010, 02:44 PM
I agree with standing pat. At this time of year it is hard to trade prospects for a major league player that would provide a significant upgrade. If the Reds are in contention in July, they may be able to package some of them for a major league rental at that time.

As for which prospects to keep, it seems to me that the Reds need to keep players that provide an acceptable alternative to retaining veterans at a considerable expense. Starting pitchers, potential closers, and second basemen are the most obvious choices. Four players will cost $46.75M next year. If the Reds are sellers in July, the prospects retained could get their chance to step up. I have trouble fitting Alonso and Francisco into that strategy until they have shown an ability to defend at another position.