If the season started today... (CF version)

[Benihana]

We are halfway done with Spring Training. At this point, who do you want starting in CF on Opening Day?

[reds44]

I'd go:

vs. LHP:
Stubbs CF/Gomes RF

vs. RHP:
Dickerson CF/Gomes/Balentin/Francisco////RF

[Blitz Dorsey]

No question for me here ... platoon all the way.

[SirFelixCat]

I'd go:

vs. LHP:
Stubbs CF/Gomes RF

vs. RHP:
Dickerson CF/Gomes/Balentin/Francisco////RF

I agree w/ this, but with a question:


With the young guys, at what point do you give them an honest-to-God shot to face the LHP (for lefties) and RHP (for righties)? I mean, at some point, you have to find out if the kids are platoon players are everyday players.

The thing I don't know is how and when (if?) do you go about giving them enough AB's to find out? Heck, is a full season even enough to know? I honestly don't know the answer here and curious as to y'alls take.

[11larkin11]

I go with Stubbs. If he can't make it, then you platoon them. But he needs more than a month or two to prove it.

[Benihana]

I agree w/ this, but with a question:


With the young guys, at what point do you give them an honest-to-God shot to face the LHP (for lefties) and RHP (for righties)? I mean, at some point, you have to find out if the kids are platoon players are everyday players.

The thing I don't know is how and when (if?) do you go about giving them enough AB's to find out? Heck, is a full season even enough to know? I honestly don't know the answer here and curious as to y'alls take.

When someone gets hurt, or when someone is performing at such a high level that you want to have them in the lineup everyday.

Knowing Dickerson's injury history, Stubbs is sure to get a shot to hit the righties at some point. Similarly, if Dickerson outperforms Stubbs during the regular season the same way he is at the moment, he'll get his chance against lefties.

[reds44]

I don't really think Dickerson deserves a chance against lefties. He never hit them in the minors, and it's pretty nieve to think he's magically going to magically figure it out in the majors. However, at the same time, he's smoked RHP throughout his major league career, and he deserves a chance to play against them.

Stubbs should be playing CF against LHP and Dickerson should be playing somewhere (whether it be LF or CF) against RHP. The question is, do you want Dickerson in LF and Stubbs in CF vs. RHP, or do you want Dickerson in CF and Gomes, Balentin, or somebody else in LF.

I think playing Dickerson in LF greatly diminishes his value. Looking at the splits, I'd honestly consider playing Dickerson in CF and giving Balentin a shot in LF against RHP. You can always mix and match as well.

[TheNext44]

I like Dickerson as the fourth outfielder, where he will get plenty of playing time, more than in a strict platoon.

I want Stubbs' defense in CF everyday.

[Spring~Fields]

April I start Stubbs in CF, Dickerson in LF, and I bat them one two in the lineup with Dickerson leading off. I want to see if speed kills the opposition by putting pressure on them and maybe adding another run or two, and if Votto is going to have someone to drive in. I want the pitching to get all the help they can from the defense. I see how it works out in April, and make adjustments if it doesn’t work.


C. Dickerson vs. Right vs. Left
AB AVG OBP SLG OPS AB AVG OBP SLG OPS
2009 218 .280 .378 .385 .763 37 .243 .326 .297 .623
2008 81 .309 .411 .654 1.065 21 .286 .423 .429 .852
AB Total 299 58

D. Stubbs vs. Right vs. Left
AB AVG OBP SLG OPS AB AVG OBP SLG OPS
2009 138 .261 .320 .420 .740 42 .286 .333 .500 .833
AB Total 138 42

Both are small samples, especially against left handed pitching which doesn’t concern me because the Reds will face right handed pitching by far over left handed pitching. The majority of Reds batters can hit left handed pitching.

[LoganBuck]

We are getting too caught up in spring training stats when discussing the CF job. The same mentality allows players like Darnell McDonald and Joses Manzinillo to make the opening day roster. Too much variance between at bats and pitchers, and some guys come out hot, others take awhile to find their stroke. We can still worry about the historical performance of a certain player, but the spring training stats are near worthless. Last weekend, a key example of this was against the White Sox. They brought in a left handed reliever(whose name i forget) throwing smoke. Marty and Jeff were impressed by his stuff. He struck out Stubbs on 4 pitches, and Miguel Cairo on three. The next guy to come in was an older guy who had knocked around and was a nonroster invitee. The Reds knocked him around a little so those players stats improved. Two days ago they got a very bad version of Ben Sheets, and beat him up. Dickerson had a couple of hits off him. From the sounds of it, I could have hit him that day.

At this point you have to trust what your own scouts are saying about your players. Stats are worthless.

[BearcatShane]

We are getting too caught up in spring training stats when discussing the CF job. The same mentality allows players like Darnell McDonald and Joses Manzinillo to make the opening day roster. Too much variance between at bats and pitchers, and some guys come out hot, others take awhile to find their stroke. We can still worry about the historical performance of a certain player, but the spring training stats are near worthless. Last weekend, a key example of this was against the White Sox. They brought in a left handed reliever(whose name i forget) throwing smoke. Marty and Jeff were impressed by his stuff. He struck out Stubbs on 4 pitches, and Miguel Cairo on three. The next guy to come in was an older guy who had knocked around and was a nonroster invitee. The Reds knocked him around a little so those players stats improved. Two days ago they got a very bad version of Ben Sheets, and beat him up. Dickerson had a couple of hits off him. From the sounds of it, I could have hit him that day.

At this point you have to trust what your own scouts are saying about your players. Stats are worthless.



For older players, I would agree with this assessment but with Stubbs not so much. He doesn't have a track record of being a great hitter at any level and I think it is a real possibility that he could be hitting in the low .200's by mid May. Dickerson provides a very nice fall back plan if Stubbs does get the job and struggles. Thats a good thing.

[reds1869]

Give Stubbs a full season to show what he can do. At the end of the year we will know what we have and he will have developed against big league pitching.

[LoganBuck]

For older players, I would agree with this assessment but with Stubbs not so much. He doesn't have a track record of being a great hitter at any level and I think it is a real possibility that he could be hitting in the low .200's by mid May. Dickerson provides a very nice fall back plan if Stubbs does get the job and struggles. Thats a good thing.

So you are saying that Drew Stubbs is special and that he needs to come out of the chute in midseason form? Spring training is spring training. Never get caught up in the stats, trust your scouts.

[Edd Roush]

Since our CF has to be our lead-off hitter, I think I would like to see Dickerson get a crack at the job. I voted for just him, but after seeing minor league splits of each, I may be tempted to change my pick to plattoon.

[Strikes Out Looking]

At this point in ST, I'd platoon them until someone earns it in the regular season. Of course, I'm not going to be fully swayed by Dewayne Wise like stats of CDick in the first two weeks of the spring.

[bucksfan2]

We are getting too caught up in spring training stats when discussing the CF job. The same mentality allows players like Darnell McDonald and Joses Manzinillo to make the opening day roster. Too much variance between at bats and pitchers, and some guys come out hot, others take awhile to find their stroke. We can still worry about the historical performance of a certain player, but the spring training stats are near worthless. Last weekend, a key example of this was against the White Sox. They brought in a left handed reliever(whose name i forget) throwing smoke. Marty and Jeff were impressed by his stuff. He struck out Stubbs on 4 pitches, and Miguel Cairo on three. The next guy to come in was an older guy who had knocked around and was a nonroster invitee. The Reds knocked him around a little so those players stats improved. Two days ago they got a very bad version of Ben Sheets, and beat him up. Dickerson had a couple of hits off him. From the sounds of it, I could have hit him that day.

At this point you have to trust what your own scouts are saying about your players. Stats are worthless.

I agree with pretty much everything you said. There are a couple different schools of thought for spring training. One school, the new school thinking, is you come into ST day one at peak form ready to go. You use all of ST as a proving ground.

The second school of thought, mainly the old school thinking, is you use spring training to get ready for opening day. Gone are the days in which you come to ST to get into shape, conditioning is a year round job for professional athletes. But I was reading what Stubbs said to C Trent in an interview. Its all about having better at bats. Its about improving your at bat with each additional at bat.

Its all about situations as you mentioned in the spring. You face a pitcher like Arroyo, who is working of a fastball and location you may have good day. But if you face a pitcher, like Chapman, mixing up all his pitches, you are going to have a much more difficult time. You may also run up against a junk ball vet who is throwing everything and the kitchen sink up there trying to make the team. IMO the most important thing about ST is making sure you are ready for Opening day, not having gaudy stats.

Scouts, Dusty, and Walt's eyeball and opinions matter when making the decision who heads north east come April. I don't want another sub par player making the roster because his spring training stats were amazing.

[BearcatShane]

So you are saying that Drew Stubbs is special and that he needs to come out of the chute in midseason form? Spring training is spring training. Never get caught up in the stats, trust your scouts.

Not saying mid season form, but if it's clear he's getting overmatched after 120 or so plate apperances, make a move. Just my opinion.

[TRF]

Dickerson is clearly the better hitter now, and IMO the minors as his stats trend up and Stubbs do not. Let Stubbs get 250-350 AB's as the 4th OF. If he shows promise, then he can move into CF next year and the Reds have some thinking/trading to do.

[TRF]

So you are saying that Drew Stubbs is special and that he needs to come out of the chute in midseason form? Spring training is spring training. Never get caught up in the stats, trust your scouts.

8 K's in 23 AB's is pretty bad. Even for ST.

[lollipopcurve]

Other.

Mix and match, with one possibility -- the strongest from a defensive standpoint -- being Stubbs in CF and Dickerson in LF.

[puca]

There is really nothing more meaningless than ST stats, especially the ones from early in ST when there are a lot of NRIs and players still trying to find their groove.

Hopefully the Reds are looking beyond the boxscores.

Having said that one stat that needs scrutiny is Stubb's K rate. It should be a concern. Given Drew's lack of sustained success in the minors, if he isn't making better contact by the end of ST he should probably start in the minors. I don't think keeping Stubbs as a 4th OF or a 2-day a week starter would be the right move.

[Homer Bailey]

8 K's in 23 AB's is pretty bad. Even for ST.

And Dickerson has a worse strikeout rate over his career.

[nate]

And Dickerson has a worse strikeout rate over his career.

What about his walk rate?

Or OBP?

[TRF]

And Dickerson has a worse strikeout rate over his career.

And Dickerson isn't coming off a sub .720 OPS season at AAA either. Dickerson hasn't had a season that bad since High A.

[Homer Bailey]

What about his walk rate?

Or OBP?


And Dickerson isn't coming off a sub .720 OPS season at AAA either. Dickerson hasn't had a season that bad since High A.

I didn't say anything about those numbers. You commented on Stubbs' 23 ST AB's and how many strikeouts he had. If you want to bash Stubbs and pump Dickerson, strikeouts isn't a stat you want to use, unless you really want to base your case on those 23 ST AB's.

[TRF]

What about his walk rate?

Or OBP?

in the minors, over their careers it is nearly identical (OBP), but Dickerson's rose at every level. Stubbs kind of kept his even, while his power dropped his last two seasons in the minors. If he can get his SLG back up over .400, say to .420 then I'd be on the bandwagon.

[TRF]

I didn't say anything about those numbers. You commented on Stubbs' 23 ST AB's and how many strikeouts he had. If you want to bash Stubbs and pump Dickerson, strikeouts isn't a stat you want to use, unless you really want to base your case on those 23 ST AB's.

I'm saying I don't think the CF job should be his to lose. I don't think he earned it last year, just like I don't think Dickerson earned it the year before.

IMO there is a competition going on and neither guy should be discounted. And if you are ignoring ST stats, fine. but striking out that much AND not hitting isn't helping Stubbs. Dusty stated there is about 10 days to go before they start wrapping things up and thinking about heading northeast.

The Reds have 2 games today, and I imagine Stubbs will be in CF for one, Dickerson for the other.

I also think both players will be with the Reds on Opening Day. Dickerson certainly, and Stubbs too because there is no position for him at AAA. (I see Heisey, who IMO is better than both CD and Stubbs offensively and in overall production at CF in Louisville). I think CD is more valuable to the Reds as the leadoff hitter vs RH's.

[Kc61]

Other.

Mix and match, with one possibility -- the strongest from a defensive standpoint -- being Stubbs in CF and Dickerson in LF.

I voted "other" too.

Against lefties I'd always play Stubbs and Gomes.

Against righties, the Reds only have two lefty bats, Votto and Bruce. So I'd try to get Dickerson in the lineup much of the time against righties. Sometimes in LF, sometimes in CF.

I'd try to get the three of them, each, about 400 at bats this season. Not a typical platoon, but three guys for two positions.

Then Balentien or Nix or whomever would be the fifth outfielder, more of a true backup.

[dougdirt]

Stubbs. He came into spring with the job and I just can't see spring training as the factor in why he shouldn't have it come April. If he was good enough to go into the offseason with the job, there really shouldn't be a reason that someone on the team before should get the job over him.

[Homer Bailey]

I'm saying I don't think the CF job should be his to lose. I don't think he earned it last year, just like I don't think Dickerson earned it the year before.

IMO there is a competition going on and neither guy should be discounted. And if you are ignoring ST stats, fine. but striking out that much AND not hitting isn't helping Stubbs. Dusty stated there is about 10 days to go before they start wrapping things up and thinking about heading northeast.

The Reds have 2 games today, and I imagine Stubbs will be in CF for one, Dickerson for the other.

I also think both players will be with the Reds on Opening Day. Dickerson certainly, and Stubbs too because there is no position for him at AAA. (I see Heisey, who IMO is better than both CD and Stubbs offensively and in overall production at CF in Louisville). I think CD is more valuable to the Reds as the leadoff hitter vs RH's.


I have zero problems with your argument. You've made it clear who you support, and you've made a strong case. My opinion happens to differ from yours, but I don't feel nearly as strong. All I was commenting on was the strikeout comment, which is an argument I would think a Dickerson supporter should stay away from.

I want Stubbs' glove in centerfield, because I think his ceiling is much higher than Dickerson's. I just put more weight into what happened in actual games last year vs. what is happening in Spring Training. Do I think Stubbs should be handed the job for the entire season? No, but I think he should start there, and we'll see what happens. If he struggles, I have zero problem giving the job to Dickerson. In fact, I'd rather see Dickerson/Gomes than Stubbs/Dickerson (LF), but my ideal lineup card would have Gomes in LF 50% of the time against RHP, Dickerson in LF 50% of the time vs RHP, and Stubbs in center about 80% of the time, sprinkling in a start for Dickerson.

Just my opinion.

[TRF]

Dickerson had a better year than Stubbs last year. Stubbs showed some pop he's NEVER displayed before, while beating up on the Pirates 4 times at the end of the season. His .439 SLG was higher than any level in the minors for him. It screams anomaly. Dickerson had a .370 OBP which is right in line with his minor league numbers. And as I stated, CD's OBP and SLG have trended up where Stubbs have been a little up and down.

[dougdirt]

Stubbs 2009 season in the majors - Starting with his 45th at bat (giving it enough time to not show wild fluctuations of one game)

First one is K% and BB%. Forgot the legend.
http://redsminorleagues.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/stubbs1.gif

http://redsminorleagues.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/stubbs2.gif

http://redsminorleagues.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/stubbs3.gif

Looks like he was trending in the right direction after a slow start.

[TRF]

Stubbs AAA numbers were wildly inconsistent. We can debate the merit of monthly splits, but at the very least it shows he is a very streaky hitter. Stubbs may have a high ceiling (I say may because over the last two seasons it's hard to gauge because of the foolish way he was handled in 2008) but we also can see his very low floor, one that is much, much lower than Dickerson's.

[dougdirt]

Stubbs AAA numbers were wildly inconsistent. We can debate the merit of monthly splits, but at the very least it shows he is a very streaky hitter. Stubbs may have a high ceiling (I say may because over the last two seasons it's hard to gauge because of the foolish way he was handled in 2008) but we also can see his very low floor, one that is much, much lower than Dickerson's.

I am not so sure his floor is all that lower than Dickerson's. Stubbs strikes out less and plays better defense while having at the very least, equal power. Dickerson walks a little more, but Stubbs isn't exactly a slouch in the walk department either. The only thing that has been a difference in their MLB time is the 50 point advantage Dickerson has had so far in the BABIP column. If we give Stubbs 2009 MLB season the BABIP that Dickerson has in his career, Stubbs would have hit .300/.354/.472 as a Red last season. If we give Dickerson's career the .325 BABIP Stubbs has last season, he would have a career line of .249/.354/.406. BABIP is the only thing making the difference between these two players right now.

[TRF]

Well for floor i look at development. Dickerson's worst season/level was high A, while Stubbs' was AAA last year.

I don't see the power as being equal either as CD's power has increased in the minors while Stubbs has decreased. Stubbs hasn't displayed power since Dayton, and his time at the MLB level is screaming anomaly. CD on the otherhand had a very nice AAA season before his callup in 2008. his power and OBP were trending up each year prior. Yes, he's older, but I don't think the difference in their defense offset the difference in their offense. Dickerson was the Reds best defender in the minors prior to Stubbs being signed. The dropoff isn't as big as some make it out to be.

[dougdirt]

Agree to disagree TRF. Stubbs power in the majors is an anomoly, but Dickerson's power drop off in the majors is also an anomoly. Of course, because it fits your stance.

[TRF]

Agree to disagree TRF. Stubbs power in the majors is an anomoly, but Dickerson's power drop off in the majors is also an anomoly. Of course, because it fits your stance.

no, it's an anomaly because his trends were going up. That his power dropped is the definition of anomaly.

[dougdirt]

no, it's an anomaly because his trends were going up. That his power dropped is the definition of anomaly.

You mean like Stubbs power dropping in AAA after it being relatively stable prior and after that?

[TRF]

sigh. ok doug. Stubbs has tremendous power. Ignore 2009. Ignore the AFL because he was tired. Nevermind that Alonso and Frazier hit. ignore that his numbers are wildly inconsistent within a season, and have been for 3 straight years.

I give. He's a fantastic .700 OPS beast.

[Raisor]

I picked Dickerson. His career major league line in over 400 PA's is .283 .383 .440 .823, which would look fantastic at the top of the lineup.

Can he keep it up? I dunno, but I would give him a couple of months to find out.

[dougdirt]

sigh. ok doug. Stubbs has tremendous power. Ignore 2009. Ignore the AFL because he was tired. Nevermind that Alonso and Frazier hit. ignore that his numbers are wildly inconsistent within a season, and have been for 3 straight years.

I give. He's a fantastic .700 OPS beast.

Stubbs is inconsistent. Nowhere did I say Stubbs has tremendous power. Jay Bruce has tremendous power. Drew Stubbs has some power potential and has shown flashes of it throughout his career. He has more power than Dickerson does.

[pedro]

I lean every so slightly towards Stubbs because of concerns over Dickerson's ability to stay healthy and Stubbs superior defensive capabilities.

[Spring~Fields]

You mean like Stubbs power dropping in AAA after it being relatively stable prior and after that?

I haven’t looked at the game logs but, what kind of pitching did these guys face after they came up. I mean did they hit well against major league pitching or were they feasting on AAAA or AAA type pitching and just sliding by on the major league quality? Not that there are really that many very good pitchers in the league but it might make a difference in the stats of 08 and 09 for those two.

Some seem to be talking of giving either of them a full season, even if they aren’t doing well, we already had Patterson and that other Willy and experienced that remarkable theory of playing them until they improve.

Why would anyone put pressure on basically a rookie by leading him off in the majors until his is better acclimated? Who does that?

We know we are not talking about Ken Griffey Jr in his prime here in either of these guys.

[Spring~Fields]

Dickerson is clearly the better hitter now, and IMO the minors as his stats trend up and Stubbs do not. Let Stubbs get 250-350 AB's as the 4th OF. If he shows promise, then he can move into CF next year and the Reds have some thinking/trading to do.

Look, Dickerson is even trending up in his spring training stats. :)



Dickerson Spring training stats
AVG OBP SLG OPS
2008 CIN .233 .303 .433 .736
2009 CIN .323 .368 .468 .835
2010 CIN .429 .455 .714 1.169

[Jpup]

Dickerson should have been the center fielder last year and he should be this year.

[mth123]

.715 OPS at AAA for one player while the other had an OPS of over .860 his final year down there. One guy earned the right to be a major leaguer with his minor league performance. The other I'm not so sure. Stubbs needs to pass the AAA test for a season before having a claim to the job. Now his major league audition was pretty good and if he'd still been in AAA, his stats there would have ended up better as well. Stubbs is clearly the better defender, but I think there is a real question as to whether he has a major league caliber bat. The Spring "Stats" are meaningless, but how a player is approaching things at the plate and how he is swinging are meaningful. IMO there is a question about Stubbs and he needs to use the spring games to remove those questions just the same as if it were a minor league game or a game in the AFL. So the stats may not mean much, but we have a guy who isn't a world beater in Dickerson who can probably OPS in the .750 range while getting on base enough to fill a role on the roster that the Reds really have no one else to fill (lead-off hitter) and while playing defense that won't hurt the team in the least. Stubbs needs to hit in spring training to show that he's better than that or at least capable of filling that role before he gets the job. So far he hasn't proved it, so yeah, the spring games are important because they are the only ones going on now and players need to show they can play. IMO Stubbs needs to hit.

[Degenerate39]

I'm not completely sold on Dickerson or Stubbs. But Stubbs has more upside IMO. Put Stubbs out there every day and see what he does for a year