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dfs
03-18-2010, 09:24 AM
That's what Chapman threw last year.

So 140 or so would be the top end. At 7 innings per start, that's 20 starts. He shouldn't be throwing any more than that.

They seem to be pretty firm about not letting him throw as a reliever.

Do you want ANY of those innings thrown in the minors?

osuceltic
03-18-2010, 09:53 AM
That's what Chapman threw last year.

So 140 or so would be the top end. At 7 innings per start, that's 20 starts. He shouldn't be throwing any more than that.

They seem to be pretty firm about not letting him throw as a reliever.

Do you want ANY of those innings thrown in the minors?

I'm hoping a lot of them are thrown in the minors. Ease him in. We want this kid to be a foundation piece for 10 years. Do whatever you think makes the most sense with that in mind. Once he's on the big-league roster, the obligation is to the team and to winning. That's all it's about. In the minors, they can baby him a little and make sure everything is just right as he makes this transition.

Falls City Beer
03-18-2010, 09:55 AM
Aren't innings more arduous at the MLB level? Is there a one to one correspondence between the minors and majors in innings pitched?

BearcatShane
03-18-2010, 09:56 AM
If he makes the team, and the Reds are contending, I bet they let him throw about 175 innings.

osuceltic
03-18-2010, 10:03 AM
If he makes the team, and the Reds are contending, I bet they let him throw about 175 innings.

If he makes the team and they're contending, both Chapman and the Reds better be prepared to throw 175 or more. Again, if he's on the big-league team, the responsibility is to the team. That's why you eliminate some of the temptation by easing him in.

mace
03-18-2010, 10:23 AM
We don't fully know his history, but it's likely that 118 is not a total he worked up to. He might easily have thrown 180 innings or so in each of the previous, say, two years. So this may not be a case of building endurance from a base of 118 innings.

That said, I hope the club finds a way to utilize him without a burdensome total of innings (or, more appropriately, pitches). I doubt it would happen, but I'd be intrigued to see a creative model that would, for instance, have him splitting the 5 spot with a guy like Maloney. In fact, Maloney has shown an ability to relieve, and he also seems like a handy guy with the bat. I could envision a scenario by which Chapman and Maloney alternate starts and are available for relief duty over a period of a few days between their starts. Then, if Chapman's workload is under control, he might be able to take a full turn in the rotation for the stretch run.

dfs
03-18-2010, 10:55 AM
In fact, Maloney has shown an ability to relieve, and he also seems like a handy guy with the bat.

?? really. I thought Maloney had never relieved.

membengal
03-18-2010, 10:59 AM
If the Reds wanted to be clever, they might consider, if Chapman makes the club as the 5th starter, and they appropriately limit his pitch counts, having Danny Herrera as his de facto handcuff. So if Chapman is done after 5 innings, it is the lefty Herrera throwing at 65 who follows the lefty throwing near 100 to the mound.

Sea Ray
03-18-2010, 11:14 AM
If the Reds wanted to be clever, they might consider, if Chapman makes the club as the 5th starter, and they appropriately limit his pitch counts, having Danny Herrera as his de facto handcuff. So if Chapman is done after 5 innings, it is the lefty Herrera throwing at 65 who follows the lefty throwing near 100 to the mound.

The major leagues are about winning and such a plan wouldn't work. If he's mowin' 'em down after five innings we'd all squawk if they pulled him. We'd be doing the other team a favor. If our best chance to win a game is to leave him in then he has to stay in the game. If we're so worried about his pitch counts that he's a 6 inning pitcher at the major league level then he ought to stay in the minors until that changes.

cumberlandreds
03-18-2010, 11:26 AM
I would say leave Chapman at home when the Reds go to San Diego this season. When the Reds play their usual 20 inning game against the Padres, Dusty won't be tempted to use him in relief for 5 innings. That will go a long way in conserving Chapman for the future. :)

membengal
03-18-2010, 11:27 AM
The major leagues are about winning and such a plan wouldn't work. If he's mowin' 'em down after five innings we'd all squawk if they pulled him. We'd be doing the other team a favor. If our best chance to win a game is to leave him in then he has to stay in the game. If we're so worried about his pitch counts that he's a 6 inning pitcher at the major league level then he ought to stay in the minors until that changes.

Yes, goodness forbid the Reds find a way to maximize Chapman AND protect him for the future. My bad for trying to think outside the box. To the minors with Chapman, to the 5th spot another guy with a 5.00 ERA!!! Onward to 75 wins!

Sea Ray
03-18-2010, 11:33 AM
Yes, goodness forbid the Reds find a way to maximize Chapman...


How does pitching him for 5 or 6 innings every 5th day maximize him?

membengal
03-18-2010, 11:35 AM
Because that five or six innings every fifth day gives the Reds a chance to win that is far superior to what they would run out there in his stead. It also protects his arm for the future. I posit, a best of both worlds scenario.

I am ready to say, in my opinion, the Reds are better with Chapman in the rotation. If so, then how to safely put him there? That's my point.

mace
03-18-2010, 11:36 AM
?? really. I thought Maloney had never relieved.

He pitched in relief in his first or second outing of the spring, fared extremely well, and afterwards commented that he'd relieved before and is comfortable doing it.

mace
03-18-2010, 11:40 AM
Actually, it was the very first spring game. He relieved Lincoln in the second inning with one out and two on, stranded the runners, and pitched a scoreless third.

dougdirt
03-18-2010, 11:41 AM
I am not sure if this has changed at all, but at one point after signing Chapman I saw someone in the Reds FO (can't remember who at the time) say that he was going to skip some starts throughout the season in order to limit his innings. It is why I see no way he is on the 25 man roster before June (along with financial reasons of course).

membengal
03-18-2010, 11:43 AM
I am tired of the Reds losing. They have a chance to be a winning team with Chapman on the team.

I hope, if they think so too, they find a creative way to do that.

BearcatShane
03-18-2010, 11:43 AM
NM

BearcatShane
03-18-2010, 11:46 AM
If Chapman pitches the way he has been for the rest of the spring, I think it would be a disservice to the team, the fans and Chapman if he is not on the team in my opinion. Maybe I'm just growing impatient with the string of losing seasons but I like the Reds team a lot more with him in the rotation.

Sea Ray
03-18-2010, 11:48 AM
Because that five or six innings every fifth day gives the Reds a chance to win that is far superior to what they would run out there in his stead. It also protects his arm for the future. I posit, a best of both worlds scenario.

I am ready to say, in my opinion, the Reds are better with Chapman in the rotation. If so, then how to safely put him there? That's my point.

I disagree. Under your scenario Chapman pitches for 5 or 6 innings and then some scrub comes in from the bullpen and that's what you're missing. I'd rather have Wood or Leake in there and get it to Masset and Cordero and skip folks like Owings and Herrera.

membengal
03-18-2010, 11:58 AM
I don't consider Herrera a scrub. Far from it.

dfs
03-18-2010, 12:02 PM
I am not sure if this has changed at all, but at one point after signing Chapman I saw someone in the Reds FO (can't remember who at the time) say that he was going to skip some starts throughout the season in order to limit his innings. It is why I see no way he is on the 25 man roster before June (along with financial reasons of course).

But the total number of innings pitched has to stay fairly low. If he's not up before June he'll be spending those innings in the minors. Do you want any of those...140 or so innings spent in the minors?

He's gonna pitch SOMEPLACE in April and May, ......

With Leak and Chapman and Maloney and the other four ( and the chance that Volquez might come back in midseason) I wonder if the reds might be best served going to a radical scheme where you have a starter and a second starter who is gonna come in during the 4th/5th inning.

Harang/Owings
Arroyo/Leak
Cueto/Chapman
Homer/Maloney

That leaves you with a pen of Cordero/Rhodes/Masset and Burton and a 12 man pitching staff.

fugowitribe
03-18-2010, 12:03 PM
My main thought during these debates of if or when Chapman makes the Major Leagues is IF he is good enough (which he appears to be able to hold his own) isn't it worth it to take the chance of damaging the future to win now? There is no guarantee either way. He could get hurt in the minors, or get shelled a couple of games and lose confidence, or start and sustain a great addition to the REDS. If we keep waiting on the "future" teams, we are going to be talking about "15 years of losing is enough, but we need to nurse the young guys to build a sustainable team for years"

LawFive
03-18-2010, 11:44 PM
With Leak and Chapman and Maloney and the other four ( and the chance that Volquez might come back in midseason) I wonder if the reds might be best served going to a radical scheme where you have a starter and a second starter who is gonna come in during the 4th/5th inning.

Harang/Owings
Arroyo/Leak
Cueto/Chapman
Homer/Maloney

That leaves you with a pen of Cordero/Rhodes/Masset and Burton and a 12 man pitching staff.

Is this Dan O'Brien?? :cool:

klw
03-19-2010, 12:04 PM
But the total number of innings pitched has to stay fairly low. If he's not up before June he'll be spending those innings in the minors. Do you want any of those...140 or so innings spent in the minors?

He's gonna pitch SOMEPLACE in April and May, ......

With Leak and Chapman and Maloney and the other four ( and the chance that Volquez might come back in midseason) I wonder if the reds might be best served going to a radical scheme where you have a starter and a second starter who is gonna come in during the 4th/5th inning.

Harang/Owings
Arroyo/Leak
Cueto/Chapman
Homer/Maloney

That leaves you with a pen of Cordero/Rhodes/Masset and Burton and a 12 man pitching staff.

The first of many problems with this scheme is what happens if the starter is pulled and the first guy in is shelled. Suddenly you have to use the whole pen to just finish the game.
Next is what happens if you get to an extra inning game.
The starter will always want to go 5 to get the credit for a win. At which point why not just go with a four man rotation but aim to go through 6 and not bother with the designation.
Your 4 2nd starters would likely not be stretched out sufficiently to be thrown into the starter role and you would have to call on AAA if someone goes down.

I'll give you creativity points however.

medford
03-19-2010, 01:13 PM
The main advantage (in terms of innings throw) in starting Chapman out in the minors is that if he's dominating after 5 innings, you can pull him and no one really complains b/c its just the minors and who cares if he throws a no-no or a shutout in the minors? In the majors, you pull a guy throwing a no-no or dominating in the 5th inning and you start hearing lots of complaints from fans, national media, agents, etc...

Or break it down this way, there are approx 32 starts available in the majors using a true 5 man rotation. Skip the 5th starter a handful of times and your main 4 might get about 35 starts while you're 5th guy gets 22-25 starts. So being conservative, lets say they make Chapman the 5th starter and skip him at every reasonable chance in order to save innings on his arm. Lets also say the goal is to get him approx 140-150 innings, thats 5-6 innings a start. If Chapman is dominate the way he's been so far this spring (yeah I know small sample size and all), how do you pull that kid from a start in the majors after 6 innings? Sure maybe you keep him from throwing in the 9th baring a no-no, but he's going to be going 7-8 innings a night. Further more, if you pull him in the 5th inning regardless that means you're counting on your bullpen for 4 innings every time he pitches. What if the next night Harang's start gets cut short, then the next game goes extra innings, all of a sudden you've got a depleted bullpen in short order.

throw Chapman in the minors, and you can pull him after the 5th every night, and also skip him in a handful of starts w/o worrying as much about keeping the staff fresh. you could always put someone like Lehr in after him w/ the directive that you're going to be throwing 7 innings no matter what in order to keep the bullpen fresh following the game's that Chapman pitches in. You could also pair him w/ a long reliever that will go 3 or more every time Chapman pitches no matter what. In AAA you can develop a kid (or limit his pitches) w/o worry to winning/lossing ball games. In the majors if you start gimmicking things up, people complain.

Strikes Out Looking
03-19-2010, 03:42 PM
I know his innings were 118 last year--what where they the year before? Last year, he was shut down because he left Cuba. Also, how reliable are the Cuban stats for innings pitched?