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View Full Version : Let's assume Chapman is in the Opening Day Rotation...



red-in-la
03-18-2010, 02:52 PM
And I do not see how he could avoid it at this point.....this would be my rotation (the order I mean):

Harang
Chapman
Bailey
Cueto
Arroyo

Here's why I would do it this way:

1. In a big three game series against....say, the Cards or the Brewers, I would try to pitch Harang, Chapman and Bailey.

2. Right now, I see Cueto and Arroyo as the least consistent (reliable) starters.

3. In that big series, I would want the guile of Harang (RH) followed by the dominance of Chapman (LH), then the bloodline (number one draft pick) of Bailey. I also think Bailey has really matured with what he has gone through to get to this point.

But doing this brings up some points of controversy.

1. It is tough to make Arroyo the #5 starter after all that he has contributed to the Reds.

2. It would be nice to throw Arroyo right before or after chapman just because of the change of speeds, but Arroyo can be streaky and therefore inconsistent so I really would rather have him as far away from Chapman as possible.

3. We probably have to wait to see who is pitching better, Bailey or Cueto....and make whoever is better at the end of ST the # 3 starter.

I was wondering what everybody else thinks.

dunner13
03-18-2010, 03:01 PM
I think if chapman makes the team he has to be the number 5, simply so they can keep his innings down. If you put him in the 2 slot and have him throw 200 innings you are greatly risking destroying his arm. Make him the 5th starter and pick out 20 starts or so for him this year.

KronoRed
03-18-2010, 03:03 PM
I think if chapman makes the team he has to be the number 5, simply so they can keep his innings down. If you put him in the 2 slot and have him throw 200 innings you are greatly risking destroying his arm. Make him the 5th starter and pick out 20 starts or so for him this year.

It's likely he'll be gone from the Reds anyway in 3 to 4 years, use him up.

Screwball
03-18-2010, 06:29 PM
It's likely he'll be gone from the Reds anyway in 3 to 4 years, use him up.

It is? I thought he's locked in under the Reds' control for at least 6 years, maybe 7 (there's a player option I believe).

BearcatShane
03-18-2010, 06:38 PM
He's ours for 6 years, although if we bring him up before May 15th of this year he could be a lot more expensive than we thought if he pitches great. My hope is he falls in love with the Reds and we keep out Latin connections and he has no desire to play anywhere else. I could see it happening honestly. But thats a topic for 2014.

westofyou
03-18-2010, 06:38 PM
It's likely he'll be gone from the Reds anyway in 3 to 4 years, use him up.
And watch in the future as agents shield their guys from the Reds organization.

TheNext44
03-18-2010, 06:49 PM
If he does make the team out of Spring Training as the 5th starter, his first start would be in Miami against the Marlins, which considering it's large Cuban community, would be a nice place for him to start his MLB career.

Chip R
03-18-2010, 06:50 PM
If he is the 5th starter, is first chance to pitch will be in... Miami i.e. Cuban refugee heaven. You have to think the Marlins are praying he makes the team and starts his first game there.

KronoRed
03-18-2010, 07:32 PM
And watch in the future as agents shield their guys from the Reds organization.

I'm not advocating 150 pitches a night, but I wouldn't worry about 30+ starts, if he's that good he'll price himself right out of here anyway.

Krono-Negative Nelly.

hebroncougar
03-18-2010, 09:36 PM
And I do not see how he could avoid it at this point.....this would be my rotation (the order I mean):

Harang
Chapman
Bailey
Cueto
Arroyo

Here's why I would do it this way:

1. In a big three game series against....say, the Cards or the Brewers, I would try to pitch Harang, Chapman and Bailey.

2. Right now, I see Cueto and Arroyo as the least consistent (reliable) starters.

3. In that big series, I would want the guile of Harang (RH) followed by the dominance of Chapman (LH), then the bloodline (number one draft pick) of Bailey. I also think Bailey has really matured with what he has gone through to get to this point.

But doing this brings up some points of controversy.

1. It is tough to make Arroyo the #5 starter after all that he has contributed to the Reds.

2. It would be nice to throw Arroyo right before or after chapman just because of the change of speeds, but Arroyo can be streaky and therefore inconsistent so I really would rather have him as far away from Chapman as possible.

3. We probably have to wait to see who is pitching better, Bailey or Cueto....and make whoever is better at the end of ST the # 3 starter.

I was wondering what everybody else thinks.

So after 7 spring innings, you're ready to say Chapman is more consistent that Cueto and Arroyo?

CTA513
03-18-2010, 10:38 PM
If Chapman makes the rotation then I would go with:

Harang
Cueto
Arroyo
Bailey
Chapman


I think Baker also wants Arroyo at #3 because it splits up him and Harang and gives them a maximum of 2 young pitchers in a row before you get back to a veteran.

reds44
03-18-2010, 10:41 PM
I want to know how you can come to the conclusion that Chapman and Bailey are better than Cueto and Arroyo at this point. I don't see it.

Slyder
03-19-2010, 12:17 AM
If Chapman makes the rotation then I would go with:

Harang
Cueto
Arroyo
Bailey
Chapman


I think Baker also wants Arroyo at #3 because it splits up him and Harang and gives them a maximum of 2 young pitchers in a row before you get back to a veteran.

I agree with this line of thought. It also gives teams multiple looks at the top. With Harang and Arroyo it gives you two softer throwers who need their complementary pitches to be there in order to really be successful, while Cueto, Bailey, and Chapman gives you 3 fireballers in any 3 game series you see 1 or 2 of each style and really get a chance to throw teams offbalance.

Like others have said assuming Chapman making the MLB club out of Spring Training he will not be anywhere else but the #5 line in the rotation.

Scrap Irony
03-19-2010, 01:57 AM
Harang isn't a soft tosser. He brings it most of the time at 92-93 and can ratchet it up to mid-90's if need be.

The entire rotation can throw 90's heat (though that straightens out Arroyo's stuff a great deal), something not many teams can match.

Ron Madden
03-19-2010, 03:08 AM
KronoRed;2038569]I'm not advocating 150 pitches a night, but I wouldn't worry about 30+ starts, if he's that good he'll price himself right out of here anyway.[/B]Krono-Negative Nelly.

I' agree with Krono here, it's the sad but very true story of small market teams in MLB today. :(

bucksfan2
03-19-2010, 09:02 AM
If Chapman makes the team, and that is a big if, he should do so in the 5th starter capacity. I thought in the 118 innings thread someone mentioned the Reds were going to limit Chapman's innings by skipping him for a start or too. While Chapman may prove to have great stuff, he still is relatively an unknown.


1. In a big three game series against....say, the Cards or the Brewers, I would try to pitch Harang, Chapman and Bailey.

2. Right now, I see Cueto and Arroyo as the least consistent (reliable) starters.

I couldn't disagree with this more. As of today I consider Arroyo the most reliable starter the Reds have. Then I would go with Cueto, Bailey, and Harang in that order. I think Bailey has more upside than Cueto, but Johnny's career path has been in a pretty good trend.

I have the least faith in Harang. I hope he bounces back, but I have lost faith in him.

BearcatShane
03-19-2010, 09:09 AM
If he is the 5th starter, is first chance to pitch will be in... Miami i.e. Cuban refugee heaven. You have to think the Marlins are praying he makes the team and starts his first game there.

If he makes the team I have a hard time believeing that his Reds debut wouldn't be on Arpil 10th, at GABP, vs the Cubs. I know they have that off day after Opening Day, but I think they want him to debut at home.

Slyder
03-19-2010, 11:25 AM
Harang isn't a soft tosser. He brings it most of the time at 92-93 and can ratchet it up to mid-90's if need be.

The entire rotation can throw 90's heat (though that straightens out Arroyo's stuff a great deal), something not many teams can match.

He can't just let rip the fastball and tell people here it comes hit it if you can. He needs his other stuff to be effective.

medford
03-19-2010, 11:56 AM
While the east-side cubbified fans will show up for that 2nd series in large numbers, having Chapman throw on saturday should generate near sell-out buzz from Cincy in general. There is no doubt that the Reds will be thinking of the extra ticket sales, and frankly should be. If he makes the opening day roster, Chapman's debut will come at home sometime w/n the first 2 series. A strong performance in his big league debut could lead to a sharp increase in ticket sales for his next home start as people buy advanced tickets on their way out of the game or a day or 2 later.

red-in-la
03-19-2010, 06:24 PM
I caught a segment on ESPN's BBTN program this afternoon. They were talikng about rotations in the NL Central. They showed the top 3 as being STL, CHC and the Reds.....BTW, Chapman was listed 5th in the Reds rotation.

They said that STL could easily have the 3rd best rotation in the NL Central.....and looking at what was listed for CHC, the Reds would have to be #1.

:beerme:

Will M
03-19-2010, 07:48 PM
I caught a segment on ESPN's BBTN program this afternoon. They were talikng about rotations in the NL Central. They showed the top 3 as being STL, CHC and the Reds.....BTW, Chapman was listed 5th in the Reds rotation.

They said that STL could easily have the 3rd best rotation in the NL Central.....and looking at what was listed for CHC, the Reds would have to be #1.

:beerme:


The Cards have two #1 starters. However, one is always an injury risk. their 3-4-5 starters are Penny, Lohse & open audition. sure Penny could pitch like he did at the end of 2009 but overall his 2008-2009 numbers are not good.
Bad Kyle was a common occurence in St Louis last year. imo the Cards 3-4-5 starters have the potential to be abyssmal.

speaking of the Cards their pen was extremely lucky last year. i can't wait for the season to start. i really feel that the Cards have very little beyond Pujols-Holliday-Molina-Carpenter-Wainright. if guys like Bruce, Cueto & Bailey step it up the Reds supporting crew is much better than the Cards.

REDblooded
03-19-2010, 07:58 PM
The Cards have two #1 starters. However, one is always an injury risk. their 3-4-5 starters are Penny, Lohse & open audition. sure Penny could pitch like he did at the end of 2009 but overall his 2008-2009 numbers are not good.
Bad Kyle was a common occurence in St Louis last year. imo the Cards 3-4-5 starters have the potential to be abyssmal.

speaking of the Cards their pen was extremely lucky last year. i can't wait for the season to start. i really feel that the Cards have very little beyond Pujols-Holliday-Molina-Carpenter-Wainright. if guys like Bruce, Cueto & Bailey step it up the Reds supporting crew is much better than the Cards.

Also depends on if Jamie Garcia makes the rotation for the Cards... He definitely has the makings of a very good SP... Just a matter of how fast they want to push him while recovering from TJ...

red-in-la
03-19-2010, 08:07 PM
Will M's Signature Line:

2010 Fearless Predictions:
Francisco is in LF by mid May.
Chapman wins 15 games.
Bruce outproduces Votto!
Reds win 91 games.

During that same BBTN, they were scrolling through Fantasy Projections for 2010. Joey Votto's line: .303 BA, 31 HRs, 92 RBI's

If Votto produces that line and Bruce outperforms him, the Reds will win the NL Pennant!

WMR
03-19-2010, 08:11 PM
Is everyone actually assuming that Chapman makes the team out of ST? Would you want it?

I'm still hoping he starts in AAA.

TheNext44
03-19-2010, 08:18 PM
The Cards have two #1 starters. However, one is always an injury risk. their 3-4-5 starters are Penny, Lohse & open audition. sure Penny could pitch like he did at the end of 2009 but overall his 2008-2009 numbers are not good.
Bad Kyle was a common occurence in St Louis last year. imo the Cards 3-4-5 starters have the potential to be abyssmal.

speaking of the Cards their pen was extremely lucky last year. i can't wait for the season to start. i really feel that the Cards have very little beyond Pujols-Holliday-Molina-Carpenter-Wainright. if guys like Bruce, Cueto & Bailey step it up the Reds supporting crew is much better than the Cards.

Not only do I agree about the back of the rotation, but I seriously doubt that both Wainwright and Carpenter will be TOR pitchers in 2010.

They could be really, really bad this year.

mth123
03-19-2010, 08:26 PM
Is everyone actually assuming that Chapman makes the team out of ST? Would you want it?

I'm still hoping he starts in AAA.

I said in another thread 125 inning in the AAA rotation and a call-up to the major league pen at the deadline. Rotation in 2011. He's 21 and only went 118 IP in 2009. I want him to become Randy Johnson not Wayne Simpson.

WMR
03-19-2010, 08:36 PM
I said in another thread 125 inning in the AAA rotation and a call-up to the major league pen at the deadline. Rotation in 2011. He's 21 and only went 118 IP in 2009. I want him to become Randy Johnson not Wayne Simpson.

That is such a great plan. I love it.