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View Full Version : Drew Stubbs Inside the Park homerun



RBA
03-19-2010, 11:34 PM
Just now. Thought it to be special enough for own thread. :thumbup:

HeatherC1212
03-19-2010, 11:35 PM
Wow, very cool! I'm glad Drew seems to be hitting better now. :D

OnBaseMachine
03-19-2010, 11:41 PM
Stubbs is 3-for-3 tonight with two singles and a HR. His bat has come alive in the last few games.

JaxRed
03-19-2010, 11:45 PM
Which has preceded by a regular pinch hit HR from Heisey. Harang with very nice outing

RBA
03-19-2010, 11:55 PM
Nix just went yard.

mbgrayson
03-20-2010, 12:03 AM
Rolen went yard too. Reds up 6-2 after 6 innings.

_Sir_Charles_
03-20-2010, 12:12 AM
Aargh! I just got home from work and missed the 2 fun innings. Inside the parker! Durnit!

Now tomorrow's game is on MLB network, right?

TheNext44
03-20-2010, 12:24 AM
I'm more excited to see Francisco walk. That's about as rare as an inside the park homer. :)

_Sir_Charles_
03-20-2010, 12:26 AM
Hehe, I was just about to post the same thing, asking if it was worthy of it's own thread too? :O)

Spring~Fields
03-20-2010, 12:40 AM
2B: Phillips, B (1, Vargas, J).
HR: Heisey (2, 5th inning off Vargas, J, 1 on, 2 out), Stubbs (2, 5th inning off Vargas, J, 0 on, 2 out), Rolen (1, 6th inning off Vargas, J, 1 on, 1 out),
Nix, L (1, 6th inning off Vargas, J, 0 on, 2 out).


IP H R ER BB SO HR
Vargas, J 5.0 7 6 6 1 4 4

Homer Bailey
03-20-2010, 12:54 AM
Stubbs 6 for his last 9..... hitting .275 (by my calculation).... maybe the Dickerson backers won't continue to put a microscope on the spring training numbers.... just sayin.

RedsManRick
03-20-2010, 01:19 AM
Stubbs 6 for his last 9..... hitting .275 (by my calculation).... maybe the Dickerson backers won't continue to put a microscope on the spring training numbers.... just sayin.

Pretty sure the Dickerson backers were never basing their argument on ST stats...

Johnny Footstool
03-20-2010, 01:45 AM
Harang had trouble throwing strikes tonight, but his pitches in the zone were tough to hit.
Maloney looked good, though.

Homer Bailey
03-20-2010, 01:47 AM
Pretty sure the Dickerson backers were never basing their argument on ST stats...

I have seen some criticism of Stubbs' numbers, and highlighting Dickerson's hot hitting. Not saying they were basing it on that, just using it.

Ron Madden
03-20-2010, 03:09 AM
Pretty sure the Dickerson backers were never basing their argument on ST stats...


I can't speak for anyone else but spring training numbers never had anything to do with my admiration of Chris Dickerson nor made me think less of Drew Stubbs.

I like'em both but I honestly believe Dickerson can be a solid CF and leadoff hitter. Dickerson has proven that he plays an above average CF and has enough talent to get on base.

Stubbs plays an above average CF and has above average speed but I worry about his ability to avoid outs.


Yes, he is a little younger than Dickerson but Dickerson has a MLB track record of getting on base. right now the Cincinnati Reds are in dire need of guys that get on base.

Homer Bailey
03-20-2010, 03:17 AM
I can't speak for anyone else but spring training numbers never had anything to do with my admiration of Chris Dickerson nor made me think less of Drew Stubbs.

I like'em both but I honestly believe Dickerson can be a solid CF and leadoff hitter. Dickerson has proven that he plays an above average CF and has enough talent to get on base.

Stubbs plays an above average CF and has above average speed but I worry about his ability to avoid outs.


Yes, he is a little younger than Dickerson but Dickerson has a MLB track record of getting on base. right now the Cincinnati Reds are in dire need of guys that get on base.

Only thing I can disagree with is that I think Dickerson is an average CF and Stubbs is well above average, and may be top 2 in the NL, IMO.

Ron Madden
03-20-2010, 03:25 AM
Only thing I can disagree with is that I think Dickerson is an average CF and Stubbs is well above average, and may be top 2 in the NL, IMO.

You have every right to your opinion :beerme: But so do I ;)

Dickerson is a fine CFer he got a bad rap last year because he wasn't used to playing LF.

Homer Bailey
03-20-2010, 03:46 AM
You have every right to your opinion :beerme: But so do I ;)

Dickerson is a fine CFer he got a bad rap last year because he wasn't used to playing LF.

And I will agree with you that CD was a better CF than LF. I just don't see him as anything better than average to slightly above average though.

And I do love CD's on base skills. I just like Stubbs' D and ceiling more.

Ron Madden
03-20-2010, 03:55 AM
And I will agree with you that CD was a better CF than LF. I just don't see him as anything better than average to slightly above average though.

And I do love CD's on base skills. I just like Stubbs' D and ceiling more.



I like Drew Stubbs upside too, let's just hope he improves his OBP.

I like talented players the future looks bright.

GAC
03-20-2010, 04:10 AM
Worth noting? Bradley was ejected by home plate umpire Jon Merry in the top of the fourth inning for disputing a called strike out. It was Bradley's second ejection in his last two games.

Typical "basket case" Bradley. :lol:

mth123
03-20-2010, 04:15 AM
And I will agree with you that CD was a better CF than LF. I just don't see him as anything better than average to slightly above average though.

And I do love CD's on base skills. I just like Stubbs' D and ceiling more.

What does his ceiling have to do with him being the starter in 2010? Yorman Rodriguez has a higher ceiling than both of them, but suggesting he start this year would be nuts because he's clearly not ready. IMO, .715OPS at AAA says Stubbs isn't ready yet either. His nice audition in Cincy clouds the picture and suggests that maybe he got ready in a hurry. If he hits in spring I say give him a chance to fail. If he doesn't hit in spring, then maybe the audition was a mirage and the .715 OPS guy is who he is right now and he needs more time in AAA to work on it. Its not about the spring numbers. Its about a questionable body of work and proving he's gotten over the hump. Last year gave him a chance to continue playing unless he shows his hitting in Cincy last year was way over his head. Like it or not, how he hits in the spring (not necessarily the numbers) is an indication one way or the other. He's starting to swing the bat a little now and that's good. Lets see how it goes. We know what Dickerson is at this point. We think we know/hope what Stubbs is going to be. What we don't know is what Stubbs is now and need more information. The only way to judge is to add more information. While I get and usually agree with all the arguments about spring performance being a poor way to judge, they are the only games being played now and the only way to add information. Stubbs job is to prove he deserves the right to fail. The spring games are the only ones being played right now, so his performance there is his only way to do so. He doesn't need to tear it up to keep the job, but he can't stink up the joint and still keep the job either.

Ron Madden
03-20-2010, 04:26 AM
What does his ceiling have to do with him being the starter in 2010? Yorman Rodriguez has a higher ceiling than both of them, but suggesting he start this year would be nuts because he's clearly not ready. IMO, .715OPS at AAA says Stubbs isn't ready yet either. His nice audition in Cincy clouds the picture and suggests that maybe he got ready in a hurry. If he hits in spring I say give him a chance to fail. If he doesn't hit in spring, then maybe the audition was a mirage and the .715 OPS guy is who he is right now and he needs more time in AAA to work on it. Its not about the spring numbers. Its about a questionable body of work and proving he's gotten over the hump. Last year gave him a chance to continue playing unless he shows his hitting in Cincy last year was way over his head. Like it or not, how he hits in the spring (not necessarily the numbers) is an indication one way or the other. He's starting to swing the bat a little now and that's good. Lets see how it goes. We know what Dickerson is at this point. We think we know/hope what Stubbs is going to be. What we don't know is what Stubbs is now and need more information. The only way to judge is to add more information. While I get and usually agree with all the arguments about spring performance being a poor way to judge, they are the only games being played now and the only way to add information. Stubbs job is to prove he deserves the right to fail. The spring games are the only ones being played right now, so his performance there is his only way to do so. He doesn't need to tear it up to keep the job, but he can't stink up the joint and still keep the job either.


This has been my point all along.

traderumor
03-20-2010, 10:44 AM
You have every right to your opinion :beerme: But so do I ;)

Dickerson is a fine CFer he got a bad rap last year because he wasn't used to playing LF.Dickerson is a fine CFer, but he really is not close to the D that Stubbs provides. Stubbs D is elite, which is a wide chasm between "above average" on a continuum.

PuffyPig
03-20-2010, 10:44 AM
I can't speak for anyone else but spring training numbers never had anything to do with my admiration of Chris Dickerson nor made me think less of Drew Stubbs.

I like'em both but I honestly believe Dickerson can be a solid CF and leadoff hitter. Dickerson has proven that he plays an above average CF and has enough talent to get on base.

Stubbs plays an above average CF and has above average speed but I worry about his ability to avoid outs.


Yes, he is a little younger than Dickerson but Dickerson has a MLB track record of getting on base. right now the Cincinnati Reds are in dire need of guys that get on base.

Whether you characterize Dickerson as playing above average CF or not, Stubbs is well above Dickerson in fielding prowess.

Stubbs is one of the best fielders at any position in baseball. Dickerson can play a good CF, but he's nothing special there.

osuceltic
03-20-2010, 11:00 AM
Pretty sure the Dickerson backers were never basing their argument on ST stats...

Oh yes they were.

traderumor
03-20-2010, 11:32 AM
Oh yes they were.It has certainly been a log thrown on the fire

wolfboy
03-20-2010, 11:38 AM
Both guys come with question marks and those probably won't be answered in spring training. I'm just glad that if Stubbs doesn't work out then we have Dickerson as a solid plan B.

Congrats to Stubbs on the HR. :beerme: Wish I'd seen it.

dougdirt
03-20-2010, 12:28 PM
What does his ceiling have to do with him being the starter in 2010? Yorman Rodriguez has a higher ceiling than both of them, but suggesting he start this year would be nuts because he's clearly not ready. IMO, .715OPS at AAA says Stubbs isn't ready yet either. His nice audition in Cincy clouds the picture and suggests that maybe he got ready in a hurry. If he hits in spring I say give him a chance to fail. If he doesn't hit in spring, then maybe the audition was a mirage and the .715 OPS guy is who he is right now and he needs more time in AAA to work on it. Its not about the spring numbers. Its about a questionable body of work and proving he's gotten over the hump. Last year gave him a chance to continue playing unless he shows his hitting in Cincy last year was way over his head. Like it or not, how he hits in the spring (not necessarily the numbers) is an indication one way or the other. He's starting to swing the bat a little now and that's good. Lets see how it goes. We know what Dickerson is at this point. We think we know/hope what Stubbs is going to be. What we don't know is what Stubbs is now and need more information. The only way to judge is to add more information. While I get and usually agree with all the arguments about spring performance being a poor way to judge, they are the only games being played now and the only way to add information. Stubbs job is to prove he deserves the right to fail. The spring games are the only ones being played right now, so his performance there is his only way to do so. He doesn't need to tear it up to keep the job, but he can't stink up the joint and still keep the job either.

It just cracks me up when I read things like this. Look at the skillsets that Stubbs and Dickerson control at the plate. Strikeouts, walks and power. Stubbs is better in both the strikeout and power department, while Dickerson has an edge in the walk department. Unless you think Dickerson is likely to continue to post a .375 BABIP, Stubbs projects to be the better hitter of the two guys unless their skillsets change. Like I noted in another thread, if you gave Stubbs a .375 BABIP last season he would have hit .300/.354/.472 with the Reds. If we give Dickerson's career the .325 BABIP Stubbs posted last season he is a .249/.354/.406 hitter. So really, the two are extremely similar hitters unless you think Dickerson should be posting a BABIP 50 points higher than Stubbs (in which case I would love to hear why you think that). Toss in the defense and base runner where Stubbs has a clear advantage and I just can't get the Dickerson over Stubbs argument.

jojo
03-20-2010, 01:07 PM
If Stubbs OPS's .700 while playing +15 defense (something thats not crazy talk over 600 PA's worth of playing time), he'd be an average to slightly above average major leaguer.

Just don't bat him lead off.

He's not really that big of a risk as a starting centerfielder for the Reds in 2010.

REDblooded
03-20-2010, 01:31 PM
Another thing that people often forget when talking about Stubbs is that he DOES give you one of the main things you want out of a lead-off hitter... The average may not be great at the end of the season but he does take counts deep and makes the pitcher work to get him out in almost every single at-bat. It's not often you see a two or three pitch AB out of Stubbs...

Spring~Fields
03-20-2010, 01:46 PM
Pretty sure the Dickerson backers were never basing their argument on ST stats...

I was going by the little bit of on base percentage history that we have for them and how the manager uses his leadoff batters and two slot batters, and how that might effect runs scored or runs allowed, and a few wins or losses here and there on the season in some hypothetical one or two run games.

I wonder, which one does the crowd think would best address those issues above, I mean if they are a factor. We did see a small sample poll on that.

We are going to have to wait and see how Mr. Baker utilizes and apply's his player resources again this year I guess to find out. Should be lots of platoons, double switches, and speed attempting steals, but, can they get on base first, before they steal second or get thrown out?

We do have at least a two year history on Mr. Baker and his strategies at the major league level and their outcomes.

LoganBuck
03-20-2010, 02:45 PM
Another thing that people often forget when talking about Stubbs is that he DOES give you one of the main things you want out of a lead-off hitter... The average may not be great at the end of the season but he does take counts deep and makes the pitcher work to get him out in almost every single at-bat. It's not often you see a two or three pitch AB out of Stubbs...

Unless he swings three times and misses! JK

I like Stubbs on the basepaths. He puts pressure on the pitcher and the defense. He is a threat to score from first on a double, and from second on nearly any ball into the outfield.

mth123
03-20-2010, 05:21 PM
It just cracks me up when I read things like this. Look at the skillsets that Stubbs and Dickerson control at the plate. Strikeouts, walks and power. Stubbs is better in both the strikeout and power department, while Dickerson has an edge in the walk department. Unless you think Dickerson is likely to continue to post a .375 BABIP, Stubbs projects to be the better hitter of the two guys unless their skillsets change. Like I noted in another thread, if you gave Stubbs a .375 BABIP last season he would have hit .300/.354/.472 with the Reds. If we give Dickerson's career the .325 BABIP Stubbs posted last season he is a .249/.354/.406 hitter. So really, the two are extremely similar hitters unless you think Dickerson should be posting a BABIP 50 points higher than Stubbs (in which case I would love to hear why you think that). Toss in the defense and base runner where Stubbs has a clear advantage and I just can't get the Dickerson over Stubbs argument.

Lots of things crack me up too. Mainly when its chalked up that a guy will be a better hitter in the majors than what he showed in AAA. I usually think that major league pitching is harder to hit than AAA pitching so I expect a drop until the player shows something in the minors. In Stubbs case it hasn't happened yet.

Also:

1. I don't think a player's BABIP is completely out of his control. Any argument solely based upon BABIP is something I take with a grain of salt. BABIP can tell us stuff, but saying a player can only control strikeouts, walks and power is something I don't agree with.
2. A player shouldn't be handed a job based on how he "projects" when he hasn't really ever done anything. .715 OPS in AAA isn't projecting anything. I think it means something well below .700 as a major leaguer. Want me to buy in, then he needs to hit better. Dickerson did that in his last season in AAA. Stubbs hasn't really done it yet. I think many people are basing their opinions on an assumption that Stubbs can OPS .700 or better in the majors. I think that's a huge assumption.
3. The Dickerson over Stubbs argument is simple IMO. Dickerson has shown that he can contribute by getting on base and providing a runner in front of Votto and Bruce in the middle of the order. That said, I'd love to have some one better than Dickerson, because I agree with the general opinion that he's a bench player. Stubbs at this point is to the OF what Paul Janish is to the IF or Corky Miller is to the catching group. I think he can be more, but I want him to show it before I buy in. I'm willing to even say he's earned the right to lose the job based on his major league audition, but I'm not willing to say he can stink up the joint and keep the job. Sorry, but that's how it works. Stubbs needs to hit.

CTA513
03-20-2010, 06:41 PM
Does anyone have a video of this?
I looked on the Reds website earlier and didn't see one.

REDblooded
03-20-2010, 07:03 PM
As a source of reference, the average pitches per plate appearance across the major leagues is 3.84. Last season Stubbs averaged 4.24 (Dickerson 3.95). Over the course of 520 AB's that equals an extra 208 pitches above the league average. Another interesting stat that I found is his swing % on pitches outside the zone. Stubbs only swings at 19.4% of the pitches he sees outside of the strike zone while the league average is 25.1%.

Match his PPA up against a few solid hitters on the Red Sox and you'll see how this is a benefit...

Jacoby Ellsbury: 3.77
Dustin Pedroia: 3.95
Victor Martinez: 4.05
Kevin Youkilis: 4.41
David Ortiz: 4.19
Marco Scutaro: 4.06

It shows that Stubbs is a tough out... Add to the fact that last season the Reds actually led the league as a team in PPA. When you have a team full of guys that can work a count, you burn up the oppositions starters earlier in the game and burn up their pen which certainly adds up over a 3-4 game series...

REDblooded
03-20-2010, 07:35 PM
Other interesting projections based off of CHONE projections for the upcoming season Stubbs vs. Dickerson...

K% - Strikeout Percentage (SO/AB) Dickerson: 31.3 Stubbs: 28.3
BB/K - Walk to Strikeout Ratio (BB/SO) Dickerson: .44 Stubbs: .42
BB% - Walk Percentage (BB/PA) Dickerson:13 Stubbs: 8.9
Avg - Dickerson: .252 Stubbs: .251
OBP - Dickerson: .348 Stubbs: .328

Non-projection based off of 2009
Win Probability Added - Dickerson: -.85 Stubbs: .58

CHONE Projected Wins Against Replacement - Dickerson: 2.1 Stubbs: 3.1

What both players give you at the plate is actually pretty close in comparison. However the advantage of Stubbs in the field outweighs the benefits of Dickerson's increased walk rate and OBP. When two players are this close, you'd be a fool not to give the edge to the player with more upside which Stubbs gives you by being 2 years younger...

jojo
03-20-2010, 07:39 PM
To me it's not really that controversial.

Stubbs is an obvious choice in centerfield. Dickerson should get his ABs from the corners or as an occasional sub in center.

mth123
03-20-2010, 07:49 PM
Depends on which projectiion system you believe I guess. ZIPS has Stubbs with a .653 OPS and Dickerson with an OPS of .730. Both of those numbers are more in line with what I expect from these two as compared with the rosy projections we've seen on here. In Dickersons' case its only passable in CF (and really not so hot there either) and in Stubbs' case its not even major league worthy. Its certainly not suggesting its a good idea to have them both in the line-up at the same time.

REDblooded
03-20-2010, 07:56 PM
Depends on which projectiion system you believe I guess. ZIPS has Stubbs with a .653 OPS and Dickerson with an OPS of .730. Both of those numbers are more in line with what I expect from these two as compared with the rosy projections we've seen on here. In Dickersons' case its only passable in CF (and really not so hot there either) and in Stubbs' case its not even major league worthy. Its certainly not suggesting its a good idea to have them both in the line-up at the same time.

CHONE is pretty much considered the leader at the time so that's why I went with that one...

REDblooded
03-20-2010, 07:57 PM
To me it's not really that controversial.

Stubbs is an obvious choice in centerfield. Dickerson should get his ABs from the corners or as an occasional sub in center.

Pretty much this... And when you're figuring on Gomes platooning in LF, he'll get plenty.

Spring~Fields
03-20-2010, 09:04 PM
Other interesting projections based off of CHONE projections for the upcoming season Stubbs vs. Dickerson...

K% - Strikeout Percentage (SO/AB) Dickerson: 31.3 Stubbs: 28.3
BB/K - Walk to Strikeout Ratio (BB/SO) Dickerson: .44 Stubbs: .42
BB% - Walk Percentage (BB/PA) Dickerson:13 Stubbs: 8.9
Avg - Dickerson: .252 Stubbs: .251
OBP - Dickerson: .348 Stubbs: .328

Non-projection based off of 2009
Win Probability Added - Dickerson: -.85 Stubbs: .58

CHONE Projected Wins Against Replacement - Dickerson: 2.1 Stubbs: 3.1

What both players give you at the plate is actually pretty close in comparison. However the advantage of Stubbs in the field outweighs the benefits of Dickerson's increased walk rate and OBP. When two players are this close, you'd be a fool not to give the edge to the player with more upside which Stubbs gives you by being 2 years younger...

I hope that Mr. Baker does give Stubbs the CF job and leads him off throughout the entire season, with Cabrera batting second and Phillips hitting fourth. I'm pretty much looking forward to it.

westofyou
03-20-2010, 09:09 PM
Harry Craft wishes he could have hit like Drew Stubbs

dougdirt
03-21-2010, 02:02 AM
Also:

1. I don't think a player's BABIP is completely out of his control. Any argument solely based upon BABIP is something I take with a grain of salt. BABIP can tell us stuff, but saying a player can only control strikeouts, walks and power is something I don't agree with.
Players do have some BABIP control, but counting on Dickerson to be a .375 BABIP guy moving forward is pretty foolhardy.



2. A player shouldn't be handed a job based on how he "projects" when he hasn't really ever done anything. .715 OPS in AAA isn't projecting anything. I think it means something well below .700 as a major leaguer. Want me to buy in, then he needs to hit better. Dickerson did that in his last season in AAA.
Sure, if Drew Stubbs brought only a bat to the game and left his glove at home, then sure, maybe you can say he hasn't done anything. But when he brings one of the best gloves in the game with him, then I think its a bit of a stretch to say he has never really done anything. Also, Dickerson was 26 years old when he was last in AAA. Stubbs was 24 last season. I wonder how well Stubbs could hit in Louisville in the 2011 season and if it would impress you.

[quote
3. The Dickerson over Stubbs argument is simple IMO. Dickerson has shown that he can contribute by getting on base and providing a runner in front of Votto and Bruce in the middle of the order. [/quote]
And Dickerson getting on base is based solely on a .375 BABIP. If his BABIP drops down to a normal range, AND he has to play full time including lefties, he might be a .320 OBP hitter with a .235 average.

mth123
03-21-2010, 02:19 AM
Harry Craft wishes he could have hit like Drew Stubbs

His lines look about what I expect from Stubbs. In 1938 he was better than what I'd expect. Of course by the WS Winning season in 1940 he'd become a part timer and he was basically done at age 27.

Those 39 and 40 teams just may be this team's role model. Hopefully Bailey and Chapman can become some facsimile of Walters and Derringer. Of course the Reds don't have a HAll of Fame hitter playing a defense first spot to help offset some of the other offensive problems. They did have a 1B who put up his best seasons in the years that they won and Billy Werber's 1940 line is pretty similar to what I expect out of Scott Rolen in the next couple years. Too bad the team's most all around guy was hurt and permanently damaged in the 1938 all star game (Ival Goodman). Had he continued to perform at his pre-injury 1938 pace, that team may have had a longer run.

mth123
03-21-2010, 03:12 AM
Players do have some BABIP control, but counting on Dickerson to be a .375 BABIP guy moving forward is pretty foolhardy.


Sure, if Drew Stubbs brought only a bat to the game and left his glove at home, then sure, maybe you can say he hasn't done anything. But when he brings one of the best gloves in the game with him, then I think its a bit of a stretch to say he has never really done anything. Also, Dickerson was 26 years old when he was last in AAA. Stubbs was 24 last season. I wonder how well Stubbs could hit in Louisville in the 2011 season and if it would impress you.

[quote)
3. The Dickerson over Stubbs argument is simple IMO. Dickerson has shown that he can contribute by getting on base and providing a runner in front of Votto and Bruce in the middle of the order.
And Dickerson getting on base is based solely on a .375 BABIP. If his BABIP drops down to a normal range, AND he has to play full time including lefties, he might be a .320 OBP hitter with a .235 average.[/QUOTE]

Glove or no glove a .675 OPS is not acceptable. And yes it took Dickerson until he was 26 to get his bat to major league worthy status. At age 24 he put up a .779 OPS in AA. If the Reds had called him up after that I'd have said he's not ready and that he needs to go back down and prove it. That is exactly what I'm saying with Stubbs. I don't think a .715 OPS in AAA earns the guy a job on the big league team.

I hope Stubbs hits and proves me wrong. I've said many times that Dickerson is no world beater. An obp in the .340 to .350 range is what I'd expect and I don't expect much power. Its about 50 points of OBP higher than I expect from Stubbs at this point.

As I said earlier, I think the ZIPS projections are about right. Dickerson will likely be a borderline average to below player with a .730 or so OPS and he'll need a platoon partner because he's horrid against LHP. If he can limit his exposure to lefties he may eake out a little more in the OBP and OPS numbers. Those are exactly the types of stopgap players that teams that want to win look to upgrade from. Stubbs will likely OPS in the mid .600s and show he's not ready. I think its perfectly reasonable to expect success in the minor leagues before declaring a guy is a major leaguer. Its pretty much how the process works.

dougdirt
03-21-2010, 12:43 PM
Glove or no glove a .675 OPS is not acceptable.
Well that is certainly your opinion. I just happen to think that its wrong if the glove is incredibly good. Of course I don't think Stubbs is going to OPS that low either.



And yes it took Dickerson until he was 26 to get his bat to major league worthy status. At age 24 he put up a .779 OPS in AA. If the Reds had called him up after that I'd have said he's not ready and that he needs to go back down and prove it. That is exactly what I'm saying with Stubbs. I don't think a .715 OPS in AAA earns the guy a job on the big league team.
Except unlike you, the Reds aren't just looking at his 400 at bats in AAA in 2009. They are looking at everything he has done. 2007, 2008 and 2009 (including his time with the Reds). One stop stands out as a big outlier there, and its the only one you seem to be looking at.

mth123
03-21-2010, 01:18 PM
Well that is certainly your opinion. I just happen to think that its wrong if the glove is incredibly good. Of course I don't think Stubbs is going to OPS that low either.


Except unlike you, the Reds aren't just looking at his 400 at bats in AAA in 2009. They are looking at everything he has done. 2007, 2008 and 2009 (including his time with the Reds). One stop stands out as a big outlier there, and its the only one you seem to be looking at.

He came from a big time college. If he hits well in A Ball it no real feather in his cap. Its not like he was a 19 yo kid doing it.

dougdirt
03-21-2010, 01:35 PM
He came from a big time college. If he hits well in A Ball it no real feather in his cap. Its not like he was a 19 yo kid doing it.

Who cares where he came from? When he was drafted it was known he was a raw player who would take time to develop. And you still need to look at more data when its there. You keep talking about his AAA time but completely seem to ignore what he did in the majors. Or in 2008.

mth123
03-21-2010, 01:51 PM
Who cares where he came from? When he was drafted it was known he was a raw player who would take time to develop. And you still need to look at more data when its there. You keep talking about his AAA time but completely seem to ignore what he did in the majors. Or in 2008.

OK lets look at it. Mediocre all the way up is my take. His high was an .802 OPS in AA. So what? Run of the mill at best. The minors are filled with guys who can do that.

Also, AAA is a higher level than AA for a reason. Lots of guys hit the wall when making the jump. Stubbs needs to show that he's not one of them. I recall Shaun Cumberland having a good run in AA a few years ago only to wash out at AAA. I say he needs to clear the lower hurdle before moving to the higher one in the majors.

I am willing to consider that maybe it came together for him right about when he made the jump to the big leagues. If so, he should show it by hitting which has been my point all along. Until he proves it, he gives a lot less reason to believe he'll succeed in making the jump than a player who put up an .860 or something along those lines. W/O those couple months in the majors, Stubbs wouldn't even be a candidate based on his minor league performance. I'm glad it happened because Willy is gone, but let Stubbs finish cooking instead of trying to feast before he's done and ruining the meal (and getting sick in the process). In the meantime, snack on Dickerson.

REDblooded
03-21-2010, 02:35 PM
OK lets look at it. Mediocre all the way up is my take. His high was an .802 OPS in AA. So what? Run of the mill at best. The minors are filled with guys who can do that.

Also, AAA is a higher level than AA for a reason. Lots of guys hit the wall when making the jump. Stubbs needs to show that he's not one of them. I recall Shaun Cumberland having a good run in AA a few years ago only to wash out at AAA. I say he needs to clear the lower hurdle before moving to the higher one in the majors.

I am willing to consider that maybe it came together for him right about when he made the jump to the big leagues. If so, he should show it by hitting which has been my point all along. Until he proves it, he gives a lot less reason to believe he'll succeed in making the jump than a player who put up an .860 or something along those lines. W/O those couple months in the majors, Stubbs wouldn't even be a candidate based on his minor league performance. I'm glad it happened because Willy is gone, but let Stubbs finish cooking instead of trying to feast before he's done and ruining the meal (and getting sick in the process). In the meantime, snack on Dickerson.

Watching MLBtv and hearing something about a certain player from the 80's kinda jumped out at me and made me think of Stubbs... Great arm. Great fielder. Great recognition at the plate (didn't swing at a lot of stuff out of the zone), and didn't put it together fully at the plate until about the midpoint of his career... Dwight Evans.

mth123
03-21-2010, 02:48 PM
Watching MLBtv and hearing something about a certain player from the 80's kinda jumped out at me and made me think of Stubbs... Great arm. Great fielder. Great recognition at the plate (didn't swing at a lot of stuff out of the zone), and didn't put it together fully at the plate until about the midpoint of his career... Dwight Evans.

Evans had a 110 OPS plus as a 22 year old in 514 PAs and was above 100 for the rest of his career. Stubbs is 24 and hasn't even done it in AAA.

dougdirt
03-21-2010, 02:57 PM
OK lets look at it. Mediocre all the way up is my take. His high was an .802 OPS in AA. So what? Run of the mill at best. The minors are filled with guys who can do that.
But are they filled with guys who can do it at +15-20 run defenders?

And as for letting Stubbs cook and feast on Dickerson.... explain to me the difference in their skillsets which would lead me to believe Dickerson is a better option. I just can't see it. Stubbs projects to be the better hitter and better defender unless someone's skillset changes between the two guys. The only thing Dickerson does better than Stubbs is walk. Stubbs strikes out less, walks plenty, has more power, is a better base runner and is a better defender. What about that says Dickerson should be a better player in 2010?

mth123
03-21-2010, 03:16 PM
But are they filled with guys who can do it at +15-20 run defenders?

And as for letting Stubbs cook and feast on Dickerson.... explain to me the difference in their skillsets which would lead me to believe Dickerson is a better option. I just can't see it. Stubbs projects to be the better hitter and better defender unless someone's skillset changes between the two guys. The only thing Dickerson does better than Stubbs is walk. Stubbs strikes out less, walks plenty, has more power, is a better base runner and is a better defender. What about that says Dickerson should be a better player in 2010?

Based on what does Stubbs project to be a better hitter in 2010? Dickerson will likely OPS .730 to .750. I don't see a guy who puts up .715 at AAA replicating it in the majors let alone bettering it by 30 to 50 or so points that is being chalked up to him. He might down the road, but I'm talking about 2010. I understand the skills you are referencing regarding Stubbs and mostly agree, but what makes you so sure they'll translate to performance in the majors when they didn't at AAA? Want .750 in the majors in his first full year? Then I'd guess we need to see about .800 to .825 at AAA. We're getting way ahead of ourselves IMO. First the skills translate to performance in the minors, then make the jump to the majors.

I think ZIPS has it right. Stubbs .653, Dickerson .730. Hope I'm wrong and Stubbs continues to hit. It would be the best thing, because as I've said a number of times, Dickerson is no world beater.

TheNext44
03-21-2010, 03:17 PM
Watching MLBtv and hearing something about a certain player from the 80's kinda jumped out at me and made me think of Stubbs... Great arm. Great fielder. Great recognition at the plate (didn't swing at a lot of stuff out of the zone), and didn't put it together fully at the plate until about the midpoint of his career... Dwight Evans.

Off subject, but Evens is one of the most under-rated players of all time, imo.

Career numbers over 20 seasons:

.272 .370 .470 .840

which translates to a 127 OPS+.

And here's the important part, 8 time Gold Glove winner, and perhaps the best defensive right fielder of his era.

Sure, his offensive numbers are a bit pumped up by Fenway, but if they had modern defensive metrics back then, he would probably be a 4-5 win player for most of his career.

dougdirt
03-21-2010, 03:29 PM
Based on what does Stubbs project to be a better hitter in 2010? Based on Stubbs having a lower strikeout rate, better power and a still solid walk rate. If we assume a similar BABIP for the two players, Stubbs line will be better than Dickerson's will be. Only if we assume Dickerson plays only vs right handers and continues to carry a .375 BABIP does he project based on skillset, to hit better than Drew Stubbs in 2010.

mth123
03-21-2010, 03:36 PM
[QUOTE=mth123;2039670]Based on what does Stubbs project to be a better hitter in 2010? Based on Stubbs having a lower strikeout rate, better power and a still solid walk rate. If we assume a similar BABIP for the two players, Stubbs line will be better than Dickerson's will be. Only if we assume Dickerson plays only vs right handers and continues to carry a .375 BABIP does he project based on skillset, to hit better than Drew Stubbs in 2010.

Big assumption. His contact rate may drop against better pitching. Weak contact will drop the babip as well.

dougdirt
03-21-2010, 03:39 PM
Big assumption. His contact rate may drop against better pitching. Weak contact will drop the babip as well.

I don't think its much of a big assumption at all. Dickerson struck out more in the minors than Stubbs. While neither has a large sample n the majors, Dickerson has struck out more in the majors as well. Stubbs struck out rate also got lower as his MLB experience went along.

REDblooded
03-21-2010, 03:57 PM
I don't think its much of a big assumption at all. Dickerson struck out more in the minors than Stubbs. While neither has a large sample n the majors, Dickerson has struck out more in the majors as well. Stubbs struck out rate also got lower as his MLB experience went along.

Some telling numbers even if they are due to small sample size...

Stubbs chases less pitches out of the zone (19.4 to 20.1%), makes better contact when he does (49.3 to 47.9%), and has an equal contact % on all swings (76% to 75.9%)... Add in the fact that Stubbs see's more pitches per ab due to his patience, is a better fielder, is a better baserunner, has a stronger arm, is younger... And there's really not a strong argument you can make in Dickerson's favor...

mth123
03-21-2010, 03:59 PM
Some telling numbers even if they are due to small sample size...

Stubbs chases less pitches out of the zone (19.4 to 20.1%), makes better contact when he does (49.3 to 47.9%), and has an equal contact % on all swings (76% to 75.9%)... Add in the fact that Stubbs see's more pitches per ab due to his patience, is a better fielder, is a better baserunner, has a stronger arm, is younger... And there's really not a strong argument you can make in Dickerson's favor...

Yet with all those skills his OPS at AAA was .713. Why?

Some guys never put it together.

dougdirt
03-21-2010, 04:40 PM
Yet with all those skills his OPS at AAA was .713. Why?

Some guys never put it together.

Because as he noted, he was struggling with his swing. When he came to Cincinnati Jacoby made a small adjustment and he found his power. The power was the only thing missing from his AAA line that had been there in the past. AVG/OBP were pretty much the same as they had always been. As we saw in Cincinnati, the power can most certainly be there.

REDblooded
03-21-2010, 04:46 PM
Yet with all those skills his OPS at AAA was .713. Why?

Some guys never put it together.

You do realize that's the lowest OPS he's had at any stop right? Vince Coleman's career OPS was .668. Hanley Ramirez OPS'd .720 in 465 AA ab's at age 21. Elvis Andrus OPS'd .702 last season, and .717 in AA in 08...

Just go ahead and say it. You have something against Stubbs. Only factor in one statistic, and don't acknowledge defense as a part of the game.

mth123
03-21-2010, 04:47 PM
Because as he noted, he was struggling with his swing. When he came to Cincinnati Jacoby made a small adjustment and he found his power. The power was the only thing missing from his AAA line that had been there in the past. AVG/OBP were pretty much the same as they had always been. As we saw in Cincinnati, the power can most certainly be there.

OK. As I noted, I want to see it continue. Lots of guys find it for a short hot streak when in reality they haven't really found anything. For some one who has such disdain for small samples and spring stats, seems like we're putting a lot of stock in to 5 HR and a .445 slg % in 132 Spetember PAs when teams are out of it and in many cases minor league pitchers are on the mound. Seems pretty inconsistent.

dougdirt
03-21-2010, 04:48 PM
FTR - Stubbs is currently hitting .290/.353/.645 in spring training. I know Dickerson got off to a great start and is hitting better... but Stubbs isn't hitting like a guy who should be giving up his job to anyone right now.

mth123
03-21-2010, 04:49 PM
FTR - Stubbs is currently hitting .290/.352/.645 in spring training. I know Dickerson got off to a great start and is hitting better... but Stubbs isn't hitting like a guy who should be giving up his job to anyone right now.

Agreed, If he keeps going he's earned it. Its all I want.

mth123
03-21-2010, 04:54 PM
You do realize that's the lowest OPS he's had at any stop right? Vince Coleman's career OPS was .668. Hanley Ramirez OPS'd .720 in 465 AA ab's at age 21. Elvis Andrus OPS'd .702 last season, and .717 in AA in 08...

Just go ahead and say it. You have something against Stubbs. Only factor in one statistic, and don't acknowledge defense as a part of the game.

Nothing could be farther from the truth. Its pretty standard for guys to succeed in the minors before being handed a job in the majors. I think we have a pretty good idea of where Dickerson is. I have a lot less of an idea if Stubbs is better. I'm pretty sure I don't want both in the line-up at once. If Stubbs becomes Mike Cameron as some are suggesting, then the Reds could carry a mediocre bat in the other OF spot. I just don't believe in assuming guys will do better in the majors than they did at AAA. It might be his worst stop, but it was his next hurdle. Guys hit the wall at all levels. Stubbs was OK in AA. Normally guys would do the same at AAA, then get their shot at the majors. I think its a huge leap of faith that a guy can fail in AAA and succeed in the big leagues.

dougdirt
03-21-2010, 04:57 PM
Nothing could be farther from the truth. Its pretty standard for guys to succeed in the minors before being handed a job in the majors. I think we have a pretty good idea of where Dickerson is. I have a lot less of an idea if Stubbs is better. I'm pretty sure I don't want both in the line-up at once. If Stubbs becomes Mike Cameron as some are suggesting, then the Reds could carry a mediocre bat in the other OF spot. I just don't believe in assuming guys will do better in the majors than they did at AAA. It might be his worst stop, but it was his next hurdle. Guys hit the wall at all levels. Stubbs was OK in AA. Normally guys would do the same at AAA, then get their shot at the majors. I think its a huge leap of faith that a guy can fail in AAA and succeed in the big leagues.

But do you know why Stubbs "didn't succeed" in AAA? By your standards it was his power. The rest of his game was exactly the same as it was every where else. When he came to the majors, he made a slight tweak and his power was back.

wally post
03-21-2010, 04:59 PM
I think both of them are not potential stars and suspect that whoever gets hot may be dealt. Walt, polish them up! I'm enjoying this team more than previous springs!

Ron Madden
03-21-2010, 05:04 PM
I doubt that anyone here is rooting against Drew Stubbs.

It's just that some believe there should be a fair competition for the CF job, and that it shouldn't be just handed to Stubbs based on a few ABs at the end of last season.

There is no malice involved here.

dougdirt
03-21-2010, 05:04 PM
As of 5:06 pm today, Drew Stubbs has a higher OPS in ST than Chris Dickerson does.

mth123
03-21-2010, 05:08 PM
But do you know why Stubbs "didn't succeed" in AAA? By your standards it was his power. The rest of his game was exactly the same as it was every where else. When he came to the majors, he made a slight tweak and his power was back.

And if its not a mirage, then he's the right choice.

This all started because some of us think he needs to hit to have the job. That would be an indication that it isn't a mirage. Carrying it over from the end of last year through the off-season would mean something IMO. Its why in his case, Spring means something. He magically acquired power in the majors last year. If its to be believed, I want to see it continue in spring. What's so awful about that? All the other evidence accumulated as a minor leaguer suggests that the power was a fluke. Is it so absurd that many want to see it continue to allay those concerns?

Ron Madden
03-21-2010, 05:09 PM
As of 5:06 pm today, Drew Stubbs has a higher OPS in ST than Chris Dickerson does.

Good for Drew Stubbs. :thumbup:

I guess spring training numbers mean something now. ;)

reds44
03-21-2010, 05:12 PM
As of 5:06 pm today, Drew Stubbs has a higher OPS in ST than Chris Dickerson does.
But I thought ST numbers didn't matter? Can't have it both ways now.

Scrap Irony
03-21-2010, 05:21 PM
doug does have a way of changing rules mid-discussion.

That said, Stubbs had some pretty solid numbers last season and has some decent numbers so far in Spring Training. His glove and speed means he should have a shot.

dougdirt
03-21-2010, 05:21 PM
And if its not a mirage, then he's the right choice.

This all started because some of us think he needs to hit to have the job. That would be an indication that it isn't a mirage. Carrying it over from the end of last year through the off-season would mean something IMO. Its why in his case, Spring means something. He magically acquired power in the majors last year. If its to be believed, I want to see it continue in spring. What's so awful about that? All the other evidence accumulated as a minor leaguer suggests that the power was a fluke. Is it so absurd that many want to see it continue to allay those concerns?

Well if Stubbs power in the majors was a fluke, despite all scouting reports suggesting otherwise because he had never done it before, isn't his power in AAA also a fluke, since he had never done that before either?



But I thought ST numbers didn't matter? Can't have it both ways now.
It still doesn't matter. Just thought it was funny after Thom began todays broadcast talking about how much better Dickerson has hit this spring than Stubbs and after 2 plate appearances for each today, Stubbs has the better OPS of the two.

mth123
03-21-2010, 05:31 PM
Well if Stubbs power in the majors was a fluke, despite all scouting reports suggesting otherwise because he had never done it before, isn't his power in AAA also a fluke, since he had never done that before either?

If there wasn't the issue of struggling as he climbs up a level. That is pretty typical of players who aren't good enough and happens fairly regularly with minor leaguers who don't make it. They hit acceptably at the lower levels and at some point can't make the jump.

OTOH, players going from little to no power as minor leaguers to guys who hit 5 HR in a month (a 30 HR pace) in the majors during his first audition doesn't happen quite so much. Its not like Stubbs put up much power at any level. He had 12 HR at Dayton. Of course coming from a major college as a multi year starter, It could be argued that he actually went down a level playing there. After that he was a lot more Ryan Freel than Ryan Howard from a slugging standpoint.

So no, him struggling at AAA isn't all that unusual. Doing what he did in the big leagues seems quite flukey. Hopefully the adjustment was real and permanent. It woud be the best thing for the Reds, but based on the above, I think its pretty naive to be anything other than skeptical.

Spring~Fields
03-21-2010, 05:34 PM
Good for Drew Stubbs. :thumbup:

I guess spring training numbers mean something now. ;)

I donít think they do when your doing it against pitchers with these pitching lines.



Vargas, J 5.0 7 6 6 1 4 4 3.95
Carmona, F 4.0 2 1 1 2 3 0 1.29
Jackson, E 2.1 6 7 7 2 0 1 8.59
Farnsworth 1.2 6 5 5 3 2 1 27.00
Grabow 1.0 1 0 0 0 2 0 7.50


The pitchers and batters are still working on getting up to major league level arenít they?





BA OBP SLG OPS
Janish .333 .389 .733 1.122
Dickerson .370 .414 .593 1.006
Bruce .333 .357 .630 .987
Stubbs .276 .344 .621 .964
Francisco .261 .320 .565 .885
Balentien .273 .333 .545 .879
Heisey .158 .304 .526 .831
Rolen .240 .345 .440 .785
Nix .250 .286 .500 .786
Votto .207 .324 .345 .668
Cabrera .259 .323 .333 .656
Phillips .160 .323 .320 .643
Frazier .158 .273 .211 .483

REDblooded
03-21-2010, 06:14 PM
I doubt that anyone here is rooting against Drew Stubbs.

It's just that some believe there should be a fair competition for the CF job, and that it shouldn't be just handed to Stubbs based on a few ABs at the end of last season.

There is no malice involved here.

Anybody choosing the CF'r based solely on AB's isn't doing it right... I get it, since it's been so painful watching Patterson/Taveras the past few seasons, but between Stubbs and Dickerson there's a bigger factor than what the two accomplish at the plate alone...

Spring~Fields
03-21-2010, 06:18 PM
Anybody choosing the CF'r based solely on AB's isn't doing it right... I get it, since it's been so painful watching Patterson/Taveras the past few seasons, but between Stubbs and Dickerson there's a bigger factor than what the two accomplish at the plate alone...

I don't think there is anything to be concerned about with Stubbs getting playing time. I think that Baker will play Stubbs in center and Cabrera at short and bat them one, two. What will be, will be. Just hope they do great.

mth123
03-21-2010, 08:35 PM
Anybody choosing the CF'r based solely on AB's isn't doing it right... I get it, since it's been so painful watching Patterson/Taveras the past few seasons, but between Stubbs and Dickerson there's a bigger factor than what the two accomplish at the plate alone...

No one is ignoring defense. Niether guy is going to hurt you defensively. Sure Stubbs is a great defender. There are a lot of great defenders who can't get out of the minor leagues because they can't hit. There is a minimum level of acceptability on both side of the ball. Both far surpass that level on defense (as opposed to say Griffey who didn't really during most of his Red's tenure). On offense, I'd say Dickerson has shown enough in his major league and AAA career to make me believe he will perform above that level. Stubbs I'm not so sure. So its not about ignoring the rest of the game, but the key question at this point is whether or not Stubbs will hit. Last season we got conflicting information. His AAA line says he probably won't. His major league time says he easily could. Based on that, I think it wise to see which guy shows up during spring games before deciding. So far, he's hit more than enough to get the job for now, but I'm still a skeptic.

dougdirt
03-21-2010, 08:37 PM
No one is ignoring defense. Niether guy is going to hurt you defensively. Sure Stubbs is a great defender. There are a lot of great defenders who can't get out of the minor leagues because they can't hit. There is a minimum level of acceptability on both side of the ball. Both far surpass that level on defense (as opposed to say Griffey who didn't really during most of his Red's tenure). On offense, I'd say Dickerson has shown enough in his major league and AAA career to make me believe he will perform above that level on offense. Stubbs I'm not so sure. So its not about ignoring the rest of the game, but the key question at this point is whether or not Stubbs will hit. Last season we got conflicting information. His AAA line says he probably won't. His major league time says he easily could. Based on that, I think it wise to see which guy shows up during spring games before deciding. So far, he's hit more than enough to get the job for now, but I'm still a skeptic.

His AAA line says he didn't hit for power, not that he didn't hit.

mth123
03-21-2010, 08:44 PM
His AAA line says he didn't hit for power, not that he didn't hit.

Its suggests he'll have trouble making teams pay for challenging him too much and when the book is out that he can't make them pay, he won't get those walks. The lack of slugging will take the OBP with it.

And he really didn't bring his OBP with him to the big leagues. W/O the power, his line would have been Willyesque. So asking whether power that hadn't really shown itself in his minor league career but suddenly appeared in his major league audition is legit is a pretty fair question IMO.

REDblooded
03-21-2010, 09:04 PM
Its suggests he'll have trouble making teams pay for challenging him too much and when the book is out that he can't make them pay, he won't get those walks. The lack of slugging will take the OBP with it.

And he really didn't bring his OBP with him to the big leagues. W/O the power, his line would have been Willyesque. So asking whether power that hadn't really shown itself in his minor league career but suddenly appeared in his major league audition is legit is a pretty fair question IMO.

Except for the fact that everybody has suggested that he would develop power as he matured...

Out of curiosity, how would you rank your top 10 most important abilities for a major league center fielder?

mth123
03-21-2010, 09:41 PM
Except for the fact that everybody has suggested that he would develop power as he matured...

Out of curiosity, how would you rank your top 10 most important abilities for a major league center fielder?

1. Minimum league average defense coupled with positional average hitting.
2. After that more defense w/o giving up any offense.
3. After that, some HR power w/o giving up any defense.
4. A good looking wife.
5. Nice kids.
6. Great dog.
7. Good interview.
8. Killer last name.
9. Not related to the manager or dating his daughter.
10. Ability to steal bases.

Spring~Fields
03-21-2010, 10:13 PM
1. Minimum league average defense coupled with positional average hitting.
2. After that more defense w/o giving up any offense.
3. After that, some HR power w/o giving up any defense.
4. A good looking wife.
5. Nice kids.
6. Great dog.
7. Good interview.
8. Killer last name.
9. Not related to the manager or dating his daughter.
10. Ability to steal bases.

What are your major league qualifications for giving them the most plate appearance and at bats over your other players on the season? On a team that struggles to score runs.

REDblooded
03-21-2010, 10:16 PM
1. Minimum league average defense coupled with positional average hitting.
2. After that more defense w/o giving up any offense.
3. After that, some HR power w/o giving up any defense.
4. A good looking wife.
5. Nice kids.
6. Great dog.
7. Good interview.
8. Killer last name.
9. Not related to the manager or dating his daughter.
10. Ability to steal bases.

I can agree with 8 and 9... numbers 3-6 are more likely to be found in players that are too old to meet your requirements in number 1...

REDblooded
03-21-2010, 10:17 PM
What are your major league qualifications for giving them the most plate appearance and at bats over your other players on the season? On a team that struggles to score runs.

Interesting question... How many runs are the 2010 Reds averaging per game? How does that compare to the rest of the NL?

mth123
03-21-2010, 10:26 PM
I can agree with 8 and 9... numbers 3-6 are more likely to be found in players that are too old to meet your requirements in number 1...

I only really care about 1 -3. 4 would be a nice bonus. Could care the least about number 10.

marcshoe
03-21-2010, 10:33 PM
I would amend number 8 to having the same last name as a character from Moby Dick. I bet Jo Jo Starbuck would've played a mean center field.

HeatherC1212
03-21-2010, 10:40 PM
I would amend number 8 to having the same last name as a character from Moby Dick. I bet Jo Jo Starbuck would've played a mean center field.

OT but this JoJo Starbuck?! I don't think she was a huge baseball fan, LOL ;)

Jo Jo Starbuck and her skating partner Ken Shelley :D
http://www.harlick.com/img/gal/ice/jojoken1.jpg

mth123
03-21-2010, 10:45 PM
Where is Terry Bradshaw?

dougdirt
03-21-2010, 10:48 PM
Its suggests he'll have trouble making teams pay for challenging him too much and when the book is out that he can't make them pay, he won't get those walks. The lack of slugging will take the OBP with it.

And he really didn't bring his OBP with him to the big leagues. W/O the power, his line would have been Willyesque. So asking whether power that hadn't really shown itself in his minor league career but suddenly appeared in his major league audition is legit is a pretty fair question IMO.

Except that we clearly saw that Stubbs will make a pitcher pay if they throw him a mistake pitch. His 8 HR's in the majors last season averaged 393 feet. And as for the OBP, he did bring it with him once we get past the first week of his call up when he posted a .348 OBP from games #8 until the end of the season.

As for the power... I will listen to the scouts and look at what I saw and have seen for years. The guy absolutely has the ability to hit 25 HR's in a season, though he may never get there.

mth123
03-21-2010, 10:54 PM
Except that we clearly saw that Stubbs will make a pitcher pay if they throw him a mistake pitch. His 8 HR's in the majors last season averaged 393 feet. And as for the OBP, he did bring it with him once we get past the first week of his call up when he posted a .348 OBP from games #8 until the end of the season.

As for the power... I will listen to the scouts and look at what I saw and have seen for years. The guy absolutely has the ability to hit 25 HR's in a season, though he may never get there.

He's had the ability all along, but it didn't show until he was a major leaguer. Will it go back into hiding or will he keep doing it? Having the ability won't help him unless it actually shows-up in his results.

Spring~Fields
03-21-2010, 11:27 PM
Interesting question... How many runs are the 2010 Reds averaging per game?

Is it enough?


How does that compare to the rest of the NL?

The rest of the league doesn't matter, only the primary competition within the division.

How are they looking now?

Based on what?

REDblooded, 2 question's:
If we give the 2010 Reds, RS 720, RA 723 for a DIFF of - 3 and a 47 run differential improvement, is that enough to overtake, St. Louis, Chicago, and Milwaukee, all three of them?
Is that enough to overtake any one of the three of, St. Louis, Chicago, or Milwaukee?

REDblooded
03-22-2010, 02:08 AM
Is it enough?



The rest of the league doesn't matter, only the primary competition within the division.

How are they looking now?

Based on what?

REDblooded, 2 question's:
If we give the 2010 Reds, RS 720, RA 723 for a DIFF of - 3 and a 47 run differential improvement, is that enough to overtake, St. Louis, Chicago, and Milwaukee, all three of them?
Is that enough to overtake any one of the three of, St. Louis, Chicago, or Milwaukee?

I don't know... I haven't seen one live, meaningful series played with the team that we have right now. What if you get a 47 run improvement on offense, and the pitching improves by 3 runs? Then what? Don't know. I know this isn't the same team as last year. I expect the pitching to improve a bit. I know we have Rolen at third instead of EE. I know we have OCab at SS instead of Agon/Janish. I know we don't have Taveras in CF. I know a ton of "experts" expect Bruce to make a huge leap this season. What does that all mean in the end? We'll have to wait and see. At least until the end of May.

My main point is, I'm not about to say Stubbs should or shouldn't be in CF this season because somebody may be concerned that he may not produce enough offensively... At this point, nobody really knows what the team on a whole is going to do. I'm not looking at spring. It really doesn't matter. If it did, I'd be trading Votto for Chris Davis in a heartbeat...

Spring~Fields
03-22-2010, 10:32 AM
I don't know... I haven't seen one live, meaningful series played with the team that we have right now. What if you get a 47 run improvement on offense, and the pitching improves by 3 runs? Then what? Don't know. I know this isn't the same team as last year. I expect the pitching to improve a bit. I know we have Rolen at third instead of EE. I know we have OCab at SS instead of Agon/Janish. I know we don't have Taveras in CF. I know a ton of "experts" expect Bruce to make a huge leap this season. What does that all mean in the end? We'll have to wait and see. At least until the end of May.

My main point is, I'm not about to say Stubbs should or shouldn't be in CF this season because somebody may be concerned that he may not produce enough offensively... At this point, nobody really knows what the team on a whole is going to do. I'm not looking at spring. It really doesn't matter. If it did, I'd be trading Votto for Chris Davis in a heartbeat...

Oh you wouldn’t find the answers to those questions above looking at spring training or what the media says, or what some paid experts playing to their audiences say.

If you read the experts and media, (most of us do) you just might find that they have some nice things to write and to say about St. Louis, Chicago, and Milwaukee players, somewhere, that viewer ship is important to them. Have to toss them some bones somewhere, it they want them to keep coming back, and they do.

You would have to look at that which makes up the aggregates of four teams over some meaningful production numbers, (meaningful to you) to get some kind of idea. Everybody has their own way of doing it, some even want to break it down to the inf detail. Some don’t and come just as close, in a general way of coming to some outlook. While others need to see a set of data points called player performance play a new season, to find out that the players who make up the whole, pretty much play to their norms.

They won’t deviate a great deal one direction over the other, most of the time. Some younger ones improve, some older ones decline, some stay about the same, they all go into making the whole with what production and performance that they have already accomplished at their level.

Let’s just hope that Phillips, Rolen, Cabrera, Gomes, Hernandez, Stubbs, Dickerson, Harang, Arroyo, Cueto, Bailey, Owings and other’s can do something impressive and surpass the data points of St. Louis, Chicago, Milwaukee and the Central also ran’s. Bruce and Votto, I do think we will have to wait and see. Hint: hope isn't going to get it done.

Then there is the manager’s choices, decisions, and strategies. Do you think those will change much with what he has to work with?

REDblooded
03-22-2010, 12:09 PM
Just started a new thread with this in it, but thought it was also relevant to the conversation here...

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/organizational-rankings-future-talent-cincinnati


On the position player side, you just hope that Dusty Baker doesn’t interfere too much with what could be. Drew Stubbs is deserving of a chance to play in the Major Leagues, and while Baker won’t like the strikeout numbers that result, his defensive performance should mask any offensive issues: a league-average season with the bat should still net 3 wins above replacement.

Spring~Fields
03-22-2010, 12:22 PM
Just started a new thread with this in it, but thought it was also relevant to the conversation here...

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/organizational-rankings-future-talent-cincinnati

Thank you for posting. I think that is good information.

I like this below too.


Since Wayne Krivsky brought Chris Buckley in to manage the scouting department in 2006, the Reds have also stepped up their international scouting. Now, not only are they drafting well.......
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/organizational-rankings-future-talent-cincinnati

dougdirt
03-22-2010, 04:12 PM
Stubbs just went deep. Not an Arizona gift either.

OnBaseMachine
03-22-2010, 04:14 PM
Stubbs just went deep. Not an Arizona gift either.

That was a bomb.

Sea Ray
03-22-2010, 08:00 PM
What is that, 3 HRs this Spring? That has to be among the team leaders in that dept. I think Stubbs needs more than power to prove himself as a starting CF but to those that have questioned his power, they're looking sillier everyday

kaldaniels
03-22-2010, 08:08 PM
What is that, 3 HRs this Spring? That has to be among the team leaders in that dept. I think Stubbs needs more than power to prove himself as a starting CF but to those that have questioned his power, they're looking sillier everyday

Maybe I'm naive...but perhaps Stubbs has finally clicked the ON switch. Not every player does it at his age, but I think years and years of following the Reds has jaded many of us to believe that prospects always fizzle out when they don the Cincy uniform. My fingers are crossed on this and of course time will tell...but it is time for some on here to have some faith that Drew is the real deal. Players all around the league surprise at the big league level, and maybe, just maybe, Stubbs is one of them.

Sea Ray
03-22-2010, 08:10 PM
I'd still like to see him get on base more but I don't doubt his power and I'm judging that by seeing his bat speed, not by studying stats. A guy with his bat speed must have power potential

Ron Madden
03-23-2010, 03:19 AM
Spring Training numbers are so cool... when we want'em to be. ;)

I really hope Stubbs can continue to progress. ;)