Concern about Travis Wood's lack of experience

[nemesis]

In the ORG and in a few posts here there seems to be some concern about Woods lack of experience above the AA level.

I, for one, believe he should get the 5th starters spot base on his season last year and his performance this spring.

Keep in mind Cueto had a very similar meteoric rise through the system. He Started in A+ and only had 14 starts above that level (4 in AAA) before making the team in 2008. Wood's 2009 season was consideribly more impressive than Cuetos 2007 was...

Does the doubt around Wood center around the fact he throws 83 to 92 vs 88 to 97 like Cueto does? I think that plays favorably to him in a rotation soon to be filled with flame throwers.

Wood to me in all his interviews has a tough, go get em bulldog mentality. He seems to become more of a pitcher every day. I am sure Lehr or Maloney will probably get the spot, but as I have said before, whats the point of developing prospects if you don't let them play?

[sivman17]

I believe Lehr will win the 5th spot in the rotation. If Wood doesn't win the 5th spot at the start of the season it doesn't mean he won't be up at some point. Harang and/or Arroyo are almost guaranteed to be sent out of here at some point within the next year. Wood has only played 8 games in Triple A. He's only 23. There's no reason to rush him up here if he's not completely ready. Case in point: Homer Bailey. No sense in sending him out there to just get knocked around. And it's not like we need to rush him, considering there is such strong competition for the 5th spot, including Wood, Maloney, and Chapman.

If he pitches well he will definitely get his chance. That's one thing that the Reds consistently show every year. If you play well in AAA you will be given your shot in the bigs.

[Spazzrico]

I agree that eventually you need to let them play. But of course you need to say the same thing about Maloney. He still intrigues me as well actually, and we don't know enough about him. I have a soft spot in my heart for his type of pitcher. And I'm not as down on Lehr as some, the guys gets the most out of his stuff meager, (pitcher instead of hurler).

The point is that all these guys need to play and there aren't enough innings currently at the major league level. I would hate to have to make this choice. But it is a great problem to have.

[Kingspoint]

Maloney has proven himself a lot more at AAA. The same with Lehr. That's why I'd think those two would have a big edge to get the first crack at a starting spot in the Majors.

[mdccclxix]

Wood is a nice prospect and by most accounts could do well enough as a # 5 if brought up this spring, however, i agree with most that there's no reason to force it. Give him another year in AAA to work stuff out.

Also remember that Volquez may be returning to the rotation in July, so that pushes the 5th starter out if that happens. Who is more expendable than Lehr or Wells for this to happen to? That may be a small factor in the decision. And it looks like Maloney is looking at a spot in the pen? The ol' vets are emerging this week as leaders in the clubhouse. . .

[Kingspoint]

Wood got Brantley's endorsement to be the #5 starter today.

[Griffey012]

I still vote for Wood as the 5th starter. Wood at worst will bring the same thing Wells and Lehr may bring. Wood at least has the potential to be a very good #5 starter. Wells and Lehr will likely struggled to be a league average number 5. You know how big of a boost that would be for this team if our 5th starter put up an e.r.a. around 4.20? Lehr and Wells will never get below 5.00

[OGB]

I hope its wood, maloney, or leake at this point. I would love to see Chapman come up and dominate as a 22 year old, but he threw such a minimal amount of innings last year, that he'd be overtaxing his arm by late July if he was the Reds 5th starter from opening day forward.

[nemesis]

I still vote for Wood as the 5th starter. Wood at worst will bring the same thing Wells and Lehr may bring. Wood at least has the potential to be a very good #5 starter. Wells and Lehr will likely struggled to be a league average number 5. You know how big of a boost that would be for this team if our 5th starter put up an e.r.a. around 4.20? Lehr and Wells will never get below 5.00

I agree with you on all points. Use a journyman in thier 30's who has pretty much proven what they are, a #5 or worse vs someone like Wood who was a second round pick, who has a plus pitch,(Change Up) who's 23 and has a ceiling of a #3 type starter...

I think alot of fans are mired in the idea that the Reds are going to do something special this year. I do think that this is the year that the losing streak stops at 9, but, Visions of grandeur... ie Playoffs, World Series... is just not going to be realistic this year.

Way to many if's and maybe's...

If Stubbs can leadoff, If Cabrera can rebound defensively, If Rolen can stay healthy for 140 games, if Votto can repeat last year, if Phillips can hit RH any better, If Hernandez can catch 120 games, If the LF Platoon works, If Bruce can finally breakout, if Arroyo can be consistant in the first few months, if Harang can rebound after two bad years, if Cueto can pitch to his talent level, if Bailey has really figured it out, if Volquez comes back and is the same guy... If, If, If... To many if's... Keep rebuilding be paitent another year or two this will be a top contender in MLB not just a if...

And part of that is letting Wood take the #5 and rolling with it... So next year the experiance carries over and you have a guy who is on the upswing vs another if...

[BLEEDS]

I still vote for Wood as the 5th starter. You know how big of a boost that would be for this team if our 5th starter put up an e.r.a. around 4.20? Lehr and Wells will never get below 5.00


I agree with you on all points.

So somewhere it is written that Wood would come in and produe a 4.2 ERA?!?!

Better than Cueto or Bailey of last year, and near Harangs 4.21?

Better than Maloney or Lehr or Owings, even though he hasn't had yet 50 innings in AAA?

Yeah, TOTALLY Realistic.

We don't really need a FT #5 Starter until late May.
It's Maloney and Owings' job at this time, especially since they are both able to pitch out of the bullpen as long-men. It'd be ideal to have a Lefty-Righty combo to come out of the bullpen, and Owings is also like our 2nd best Hitter off the bench at this point - MAYBE ends up as the best!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Griffey012]

So somewhere it is written that Wood would come in and produe a 4.2 ERA?!?!

Better than Cueto or Bailey of last year, and near Harangs 4.21?

Better than Maloney or Lehr or Owings, even though he hasn't had yet 50 innings in AAA?

Yeah, TOTALLY Realistic.

We don't really need a FT #5 Starter until late May.
It's Maloney and Owings' job at this time, especially since they are both able to pitch out of the bullpen as long-men. It'd be ideal to have a Lefty-Righty combo to come out of the bullpen, and Owings is also like our 2nd best Hitter off the bench at this point - MAYBE ends up as the best!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Actually it is not written anywhere that Wood will have an ERA of 4.20. If you read my post I stated "You know how big of a boost that would be for this team if our 5th starter put up an e.r.a. around 4.20?" I did not say Wood, or any other 5th starter was guaranteed to do that, I was simply pointing out that it would be a huge benefit if we had a good 5th starter.

Wood could be a very good 5th starter whereas Wells and Lehr will well, not be very good, they just aren't that good. The BEST CASE scenario for Wells and Lehr is an ERA of 5, where Wood's BEST CASE would be something of an ERA around 4.20. Is it a given Wood has an ERA of 4.20, no. Is it likely, probably not. Is it possible, yes. Is it possible for Wells or Lehr to carry a 4.20 ERA, no. It will most likely be in the mid 5's and be the same kind of garbage we have gotten out of our 5th starters for the past I dont know how many seasons.

Maloney could be that guy also, doubt Owings will, but they all three bring us better hope than tossing Lehr or Wells out there.

[BLEEDS]

Actually it is not written anywhere that Wood will have an ERA of 4.20. If you read my post I stated "You know how big of a boost that would be for this team if our 5th starter put up an e.r.a. around 4.20?" I did not say Wood, or any other 5th starter was guaranteed to do that, I was simply pointing out that it would be a huge benefit if we had a good 5th starter.

Wood could be a very good 5th starter whereas Wells and Lehr will well, not be very good, they just aren't that good. The BEST CASE scenario for Wells and Lehr is an ERA of 5, where Wood's BEST CASE would be something of an ERA around 4.20. Is it a given Wood has an ERA of 4.20, no. Is it likely, probably not. Is it possible, yes. Is it possible for Wells or Lehr to carry a 4.20 ERA, no. It will most likely be in the mid 5's and be the same kind of garbage we have gotten out of our 5th starters for the past I dont know how many seasons.

Maloney could be that guy also, doubt Owings will, but they all three bring us better hope than tossing Lehr or Wells out there.

Expecting Wood to come in and have a better first MLB stint than Homer Bailey is one thing - nominating his ceiling for his ERA, after not even getting 50 innings in AAA - at 4.2 is beyond absurd.
IMO.

Basically you are saying his ceiling, for his first stint in MLB, is above what Cueto, Bailey, Volquez, Maloney, and many others, was. Basically that he is a better prospect than any of these guys.

Why don't you set the bar at <5.0 and go from there, all this posturing about whose ceiling is where, is a bit far-fetched.
IMO.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Griffey012]

Expecting Wood to come in and have a better first MLB stint than Homer Bailey is one thing - nominating his ceiling for his ERA, after not even getting 50 innings in AAA - at 4.2 is beyond absurd.
IMO.

Basically you are saying his ceiling, for his first stint in MLB, is above what Cueto, Bailey, Volquez, Maloney, and many others, was. Basically that he is a better prospect than any of these guys.

Why don't you set the bar at <5.0 and go from there, all this posturing about whose ceiling is where, is a bit far-fetched.
IMO.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Like you said it's a ceiling. And I would disagree that a 4.2 ERA is above Cueto, Bailey, and Maloney's ceiling when they first came up. Lets be honest, we all thought Bailey was going to come up and do big things the way he dominated in the minors. We all remember what Cueto did in his first start and based off what he had done in the minors we were excited to see him. Maloney had a nice cup of coffee and showed some good and bad signs.

None of these 3 guys met their ceiling when they were called up, they struggled with command at times, were inconsistent at times, and Cueto seemed to tire through the season. If Wood were to avoid inconsistencies and keep composure throughout it is possible he could have a very solid season with an ERA around 4.2.

[BLEEDS]

That's the entire point - pretty much NO prospect out there is going to reach their "ceiling" in their first stint in the Bigs. Not happening.

The only person that comes to mind that came out with that type of first stint (~4.2 or better) was Lincecum.
If you want to lump Wood in that category, feel free.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Griffey012]

That's the entire point - pretty much NO prospect out there is going to reach their "ceiling" in their first stint in the Bigs. Not happening.

The only person that comes to mind that came out with that type of first stint (~4.2 or better) was Lincecum.
If you want to lump Wood in that category, feel free.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

I wasn't saying Wood's "ceiling" was a 4.20 ERA, I hope he is a sub 4 pitcher down the road. I was simply saying his BEST CASE scenario, the one that is not likely to happen is an ERA around 4.20 for his rookie season. Even if he pulls in a 4.50 ERA its a huge upgrade from Wells and Lehr.

Do you agree with me on the fact that Maloney, Wood, and Owings are better options than Wells or Lehr? That was the point of my argument, Wells and Lehr can't give us a boost from the 5th spot, one of those guys could give us a boost of something like a 4.2 ERA. Those guys easily have more potential than Wells and Lehr, especially Wood and Maloney, and I would say Wood has the most potential of any of them. I apologize if you misinterpreted my support of Wood and his potential to be a good starter as guarunteeing him to be the next Tim Lincecum.

[BLEEDS]

"Best Case", "Ceiling", "X", "Whatever" - Wood is not going to get anywhere near 4.2 ERA this year in MLB, and probably not <4.5 if/when he gets to the Bigs this year..
More than likely, he never sniffs the bigs this year, and plays the entire year in AAA.

Agree that Maloney or Owings are better options that Wells or Lehr. However, this thread, and the discussions hence, were about Woods.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[nemesis]

But wouldn't it be in the long term interest of the team to absorb Wood's learning year this year vs giving away developmental time to journeymen pitchers who won't be here next year and will post similar ERA's?

Let Wood post a high 4's ERA this year and have that experience under his belt so he can be better equipped to post a low 4's high 3's ERA next year...

[BLEEDS]

You can "develop" in AAA, without jeopardizing his development or the ML team's chances. Let him pitch every 5th day there.
He's only got 48 innings in AAA. Let him dominate before bringing him up.
Personally I like Leake better than him and think he's more polished at this point.

Maloney has earned his shot, he pitched well in his second stint last year. It's his job to lose, and also he can pitch out of the pen. My money is on him to make the 25 man, along with Owings, to start the season.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[BLEEDS]

Well, according to Fay, I should be prepared to eat some crow (which I have zero problem with), since it appears that Wood or Leake is being lined up for the #5 starter:

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/
The Reds have the schedule for pitching posted in the cubhouse leading right up to the last day of camp. Judging from it, the fifth starter will be Mike Leake or Travis Wood. Consider:

–Wood’s and Leake’s days line up so April 11 — the first start for the fifth start — falls on their normal day.

–None of the other pitchers in the race for the No. 5 spot is on the schedule for more than three innings.


SO, looks like there is a 50%-ish chance it goes to Wood. I'd guess it's advantage Leake at this point however.

My question is - where is Maloney headed?!?! Don't see him on any extended innings at this point. Will he make it in the pen, or start in AAA?
Owings seems destined for the pen.

Also a full thread over in tORG on this (fyi).

PEACE

-BLEEDS

[Griffey012]

Can we send Owings to the minors to begin his move to becoming a LF'er. Only halfway joking.

I will actually be really surprised to not see Maloney as our #5. I was hoping for Wood because I want Leake to get some sort of time in the minors, but nonetheless hopefully whoever it may be gives us good innings.

[HUHUH]

I am sure Lehr or Maloney will probably get the spot, but as I have said before, whats the point of developing prospects if you don't let them play?

Well said. I've said it before too. Let's keep saying it.

[GIDP]

Wood has been pitching a long time.