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Redsfan320
03-23-2010, 12:16 PM
I say Francisco. You can't ignore the power he's had this spring.

320

Edd Roush
03-23-2010, 12:32 PM
320, I agree you cannot ignore the power Francisco has displayed, but at the same time, he has absolutely no patience at the plate and needs time to develop some. If he is called up now, he will only get 200-300 ABs and will turn into Wily Mo, IMO. I am very bearish on Francisco in general and feel like he really needs to stick to one position defensively to get average some where defensively and then focus on some plate discipline. Otherwise, he will never reach his full potential, IMO.

RedsManRick
03-23-2010, 12:37 PM
I'd go Balentien.

As a 5th OF, there simply won't be regular PA for whomever take the spot. For me, that immediately removes Fransisco from the equation. He desperately needs to work on his plate discipline and has only had ~100 PA at AAA. He simply cannot succeed given his current K and BB rates. He's young and has plenty of time to improve. But he needs the PA to do so.

That leaves Balentien and Nix. Both are pretty good defensively. Both strike out a lot and don't walk a ton. Nix is a lefty, Balentien a righty, but I don't get caught up on handedness until we've established overall talent. And when it comes to overall talent, that's where Balentien pulls ahead. He's 4 years younger and still developing. He's got a good pedigree. Neither guy will have a huge impact as a 5th OF, but Balentien has more upside and will likely be lost to the waiver wire if he's not kept.

It's pretty simple math from my perspective.

edabbs44
03-23-2010, 12:54 PM
Wlad probably makes the most sense. They have a fairly diverse and solid 4 OFers and will hopefully not need their 5th guy to make a huge impact this season. Using that as a baseline, Wlad has the brighter future (between him and Nix) and has a better chance of helping this team in the long term.

Francisco has options, he isn't in the discussion.

puca
03-23-2010, 01:43 PM
A no doubter for me. Wlad over Nix with Francisco to the minors.

Nix's lefthandedness isn't worth risking losing Wlad's potential to waivers. Franscisco needs to play every day and definitely doesn't look ready to do it in the majors.

Scrap Irony
03-23-2010, 01:48 PM
Too, Balentien can play both corner OF spots well and owns a very good arm, a not small consideration for Jocketty, IMO. His power is similar to Nix's and he's more likely to bust out if given a chance.

Balentien is the easy choice, IMO.

Kc61
03-23-2010, 01:53 PM
Here's the argument for Nix over Wlad.

Nix gives the Reds a lefty hitter off the bench. He'd be the only decent lefty bench hitter (unless Reds make Dickerson a bench guy). Nix could pinch hit against righty relievers.

Nix plays all three outfield positions. Wlad plays the corners.

Nix is a fifth outfielder type. It doesn't slow his development to sit -- he's a bench player plain and simple.

Wlad needs to be in an environment where he can play. No point to sit him on the bench waiting for an injury. If he can't make the Reds, they should trade him for a low minors guy, or try to sneak him down to AAA.

If the Reds had a platoon spot for Wlad - playing regularly againts lefties - then you keep him. But as a benchwarming fifth outfielder, it's not good for him and doesn't add to the team.

That's the argument for Nix.

nate
03-23-2010, 01:55 PM
Too, Balentien can play both corner OF spots well and owns a very good arm, a not small consideration for Jocketty, IMO. His power is similar to Nix's and he's more likely to bust out if given a chance.

Balentien is the easy choice, IMO.

Yep.

Although chicks dig Nix!

:cool:

OnBaseMachine
03-23-2010, 02:10 PM
Too, Balentien can play both corner OF spots well and owns a very good arm, a not small consideration for Jocketty, IMO. His power is similar to Nix's and he's more likely to bust out if given a chance.

Balentien is the easy choice, IMO.

Agreed.

osuceltic
03-23-2010, 02:13 PM
Here's the argument for Nix over Wlad.

Nix gives the Reds a lefty hitter off the bench. He'd be the only decent lefty bench hitter (unless Reds make Dickerson a bench guy). Nix could pinch hit against righty relievers.

Nix plays all three outfield positions. Wlad plays the corners.

Nix is a fifth outfielder type. It doesn't slow his development to sit -- he's a bench player plain and simple.

Wlad needs to be in an environment where he can play. No point to sit him on the bench waiting for an injury. If he can't make the Reds, they should trade him for a low minors guy, or try to sneak him down to AAA.

If the Reds had a platoon spot for Wlad - playing regularly againts lefties - then you keep him. But as a benchwarming fifth outfielder, it's not good for him and doesn't add to the team.

That's the argument for Nix.

And it's the best argument. The only reason you would favor Wlad would be to avoid losing him -- and that's a significant reason. But if you're strictly making a baseball decision, Nix clearly is the guy.

I'm hoping they keep Wlad, but I'm expecting him to be dealt to avoid losing him.

Hoosier Red
03-23-2010, 02:21 PM
Wlad,

How much does it matter that he can't play CF when he'd be the third in line there anyway?

Handedness doesn't really come into it as he hits RH better than Left handers anyway. And If Dickerson's on the bench he's likely hitting the first ROOOGY over both Balentien and Nix.

lollipopcurve
03-23-2010, 02:23 PM
Nix

Better defender (he's quite good) and can play all 3 spots. He's got a year of coming off the bench under his belt, so he's likely better adapted to the role. The LH bat plays better off the Reds bench, too, given the fact there are more righties you'd want to hit for than lefties, and most relievers are righthanded.

Still somewhat mystified by the popularity of the Wlad bandwagon.

mace
03-23-2010, 02:27 PM
I have much more confidence in Nix than I do in Balentien. Especially now that Dickerson has staked a claim to a portion of center field, I think that Nix and Gomes would make a terrific platoon in left. Between them last year, in 651 PA, they produced 35 HR and 97 RBI. And that was with Nix dealing with a bad neck.

The only issue, to me, is that Balentien is out of options. I presume that, since Nix is on a minor-league contract, they can send him down. That complicates the situation. Also, it would be nice if the fifth outfielder could also play some 1B to spell Votto; but that doesn't appear to be much of an option.

All that aside, the bottom line for me is that Nix is simply the better ballplayer.

Meanwhile, I'm a big Francisco fan, but agree that it's not his time yet.

edabbs44
03-23-2010, 02:30 PM
Nix

Better defender (he's quite good) and can play all 3 spots. He's got a year of coming off the bench under his belt, so he's likely better adapted to the role. The LH bat plays better off the Reds bench, too, given the fact there are more righties you'd want to hit for than lefties, and most relievers are righthanded.

Still somewhat mystified by the popularity of the Wlad bandwagon.

I'm not on the wagon, but I still chose him over Nix. My reasoning is that I'm not playing for this year...I'm playing for the next 5. And I'd rather have Wlad in my organization over the next 5 than Nix.

The Wlad bandwagon has definitely derailed, though. He was a popular choice for a starting spot this winter. Now he is an option for the #5 job.

lollipopcurve
03-23-2010, 02:48 PM
With Heisey and Frazier plausible LFs, I see no reason to worry about losing Wlad.

Kc61
03-23-2010, 02:54 PM
I'm not on the wagon, but I still chose him over Nix. My reasoning is that I'm not playing for this year...I'm playing for the next 5. And I'd rather have Wlad in my organization over the next 5 than Nix.

The Wlad bandwagon has definitely derailed, though. He was a popular choice for a starting spot this winter. Now he is an option for the #5 job.


I just don't see how Wlad turns into anything sitting on the bench playing three innings a week. I'd rather use a role player in that spot.

The only reason to keep Wlad is that, if there is a long-term injury, he could be given a full shot. Even that's questionable with Frazier and Francisco on the horizon.

Talented guy, just don't see the role for him on this ballclub.

TheNext44
03-23-2010, 03:08 PM
I posted this in the "Gomes Or Dickerson" Thread:

Basically I would like to see Balantien become the everyday LF, Gomes traded, and Nix as the 5th OF.



I'm of a very different opinion on Gomes.

I want Balantien as the LF. And I want Dickerson as the 4th OF, who gets around 400-500 PA's filing in for each position in the outfield.

Sure, Gomes has hit a bunch of HR's. But this is in Az, where the balls fly out and the air is too dry for pitchers to get good grips on their curveballs. Gomes is a fastball hitter, and in Az, pitchers have to throw more fastballs, and the curveballs they do throw hang more often.

Along with these 4HR's, Gomes has an OBP of .297, and an 11/1 K/BB ratio. He really is not having as good a spring as most people think he is having. I doubt he will be able to keep up this type of power once the season starts. Without that, he's not a very good hitter.

Balantien on the other hand has this line this spring:

.286 .333 .500 .833

Combine that with much better defense and speed, and I would much rather have Balantien playing left everyday than Gomes, especially when you consider he has a much brighter future than Gomes.

I say trade Gomes, with his low contract, there's a good chance you could get a good prospect or two. A lot of teams could use some power off the bench.

mace
03-23-2010, 03:30 PM
With Heisey and Frazier plausible LFs, I see no reason to worry about losing Wlad.

Good point. If you could trade him for somebody's 15th or 20th best prospect, maybe a kid around the A/AA level, all the better.

Spring~Fields
03-23-2010, 03:35 PM
I have it in my mind that the field boss leaned toward Nix last year, and will lean toward Nix again. For some off the wall thought, beats me why, I don't think the field boss is that enamored with Stubbs either. I look for reasoned excuses to go with what he perceives from past history, toward experience.

_Sir_Charles_
03-23-2010, 06:10 PM
I say Francisco. Simply because...how often do you really need a FIFTH outfielder? Balentien & Nix are pretty much strictly OF'ers. Francisco however gives you a backup for the known-to-be-fragile Rolen at third. Besides, the other 2 guys only take AB's away from Dickerson IMO.

wolfboy
03-23-2010, 06:26 PM
I say trade Gomes, with his low contract, there's a good chance you could get a good prospect or two. A lot of teams could use some power off the bench.

But isn't his low contract the very reason no one would give up a good prospect or two? It seems that anyone could have had him in the off season for just about the same money. So why pay the money plus prospects now? I'd be all for the scenario you suggest, but I'm skeptical.

wolfboy
03-23-2010, 06:30 PM
I just don't see how Wlad turns into anything sitting on the bench playing three innings a week. I'd rather use a role player in that spot.

The only reason to keep Wlad is that, if there is a long-term injury, he could be given a full shot. Even that's questionable with Frazier and Francisco on the horizon.

Talented guy, just don't see the role for him on this ballclub.

I think you keep the guy because talent is talent. Granted, you may not have a ton of at bats for him, but why let him walk? The fact that he's more likely to fill in everyday if someone is injured long term is an added bonus.

mth123
03-23-2010, 07:19 PM
Wlad because options matter. FTR, he's really grown into a bit of a legend here that I'm not sure is deserved. His defense is not as good as some here claim. IIRC, Seattle thought of him as a poor defender.

That said, no reason just to lose him. Keep him for a trade, if not a deal for him, possibly as depth to fill that 5th OF role on the cheap while dealing some one like Heisey who may command a return that can make an impact as opposed to some team's 15th or 20th best prospect.

In the meantime, sell Nix to Japan.

Will M
03-23-2010, 07:21 PM
note that Balentien hits rhp better than lhp. why? don't know.

i like Nix but voted for Balentien due to his higher ceiling & the fact that Nix can be stashed in AAA for insurance and Balentien can't.

no reason to trade Balentien for minimal return just because we have Heisey & Frazier. All of them could have long careers or none of them could have long careers. they are all just unproven at this point.

IMO the default positions should be a platoon of Balentien/Gomes in LF and Dickerson/Stubbs in CF. you want the job full time? earn it!

Degenerate39
03-23-2010, 09:40 PM
Frazier?

Spring~Fields
03-23-2010, 11:38 PM
In the meantime, sell Nix to Japan.

:lol:

Mario-Rijo
03-24-2010, 04:14 AM
I think Wlad gets the boot and I think he should. The guy has alot of potential but still has yet to put anything together he isn't gonna fulfill that potential sitting on the bench. Try to get him thru waivers but if he doesn't make it deal him off. Francisco also needs more work in AAA. So I go with Nix for so many obvious reasons. He does have a big hole in his swing but beyond that I think he is a very good defender/baserunner and gives us some legit power off the bench from the left side. Looking at it from Dusty's point of view if Stubbs doesn't pan out and has to go to AAA who is your backup CF? We know Dusty thinks Dickerson is injury prone. As an aside we don't know if Nix has a release clause in his deal if he doesn't make the club. I think he makes the club unless Balentein catches fire soon.

Oh and as usual I am playing for this year, as we should.

Ron Madden
03-24-2010, 04:22 AM
In my humble opinion Nix made the club the day he signed the minor league deal.

Like many here at RZ Dusty is caught up in Handedness.

I think I'd rather take a chance with Balentien.

wolfboy
03-24-2010, 09:27 AM
Looking at it from Dusty's point of view if Stubbs doesn't pan out and has to go to AAA who is your backup CF?

If you send Stubbs down, couldn't you bring Heisey up?