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Mario-Rijo
03-24-2010, 04:45 AM
Not much more to say, who makes the OD 25 man roster? In addition who do you think should that won't make it?

Prediction
Harang
Cueto
Arroyo
Bailey
Maloney

Cordero
Masset
Rhodes
Burton
Herrera
Lincoln
Owings

C - Hernandez
1B - Votto
2B - Phillips
SS - Cabrera
3B - Rolen
LF - Gomes
CF - Stubbs
RF - Bruce

C - Hanigan
OF - Dickerson
OF - Nix
IF - Sutton
SS - Janish

Not much of a surprise really. I think Carlos Fisher would have made it interesting in the pen had he stayed healthy, Lincoln may have been cut or Micah might have started to make room. I think Miles gets cut or dealt Burke to AAA and Balentein to AAA or dealt.

fearofpopvol1
03-24-2010, 05:35 AM
I'd personally prefer Balentien over Nix, but I can see the argument for keeping Nix. Especially since Dickerson is a lefty. Balentien's spring has looked pretty good. Nix is definitely a better defender, but I like Bal's upside better, being he's 4 years younger than Nix is.

Redsfan320
03-24-2010, 08:20 AM
Rotation

1 S1 Harang
2 S2 Cuteo
3 S3 Arroyo
4 S4 Bailey
5 S5 Maloney

Pen

6 CL Cordero
7 RSU Masset
8 LSU Rhodes
9 LOOGY Herrera
10 MR Burton
11 MR Lincoln
12 LR Owings

Starting Catchers

13 C Hernandez
14 C Hanigan

Starting Infield

15 1B Votto
16 2B Phillips
17 SS Cabrera
18 3B Rolen

Starting Outfield

19 LF Gomes
20 CF Stubbs
21 RF Bruce
22 OF Dickerson

Bench

23 3B/LF Francisco
24 IF Cairo
25 IF Janish

320

membengal
03-24-2010, 09:17 AM
My guesses:

Harang
Cueto
Arroyo
Bailey
Wood

Cordero
Masset
Rhodes
Burton
Herrera
Maloney
Owings

C - Hernandez
1B - Votto
2B - Phillips
SS - Cabrera
3B - Rolen
LF - Gomes/Dickerson
CF - Stubbs
RF - Bruce

C - Hanigan
OF - Balentin
IF - Miles
SS - Janish

I think they keep Miles because he's a Jocketty guy and making 2.7 million. I think they do bite the financial bullet and drop Lincoln. I think Balentin's upside gets one more chance, and, simply a hunch, I think Wood wins the 5th starter battle with Maloney into long relief.

Probably wrong on all counts, but, hey, a guess is a guess.

bucksfan2
03-24-2010, 09:57 AM
Harang
Cueto
Arroyo
Bailey
Leake

Cordero
Masset
Rhodes
Burton
Herrera
Maloney
Owings

C Hernandez
1b Votto
2b Phillips
SS Cabrera
3b Rolen
LF Gomes
CF Stubbs
RF Bruce

B Dickerson
B Hanigan
B Janish
B Balentine
B Sutton

When I heard Larkin on MLB Network talk glowingly of Leake I thought he may have more of a shot than I thought.

I think Sutton and his upside get the nod over Miles.

Balentine gets the nod because he has more upside than Nix.

SirFelixCat
03-24-2010, 11:54 AM
Rotation

1 S1 Harang
2 S2 Cuteo
3 S3 Arroyo
4 S4 Bailey
5 S5 Maloney

Pen

6 CL Cordero
7 RSU Masset
8 LSU Rhodes
9 LOOGY Herrera
10 MR Burton
11 MR Lincoln
12 LR Owings

Starting Catcher

13 C Hernandez


Starting Infield

15 1B Votto
16 2B Phillips
17 SS Cabrera
18 3B Rolen

Outfield

19 LF Gomes
20 CF Stubbs
21 RF Bruce

Bench

14 C Hanigan
22 OF Dickerson
23 Util Sutton
24 OF Balentin
25 IF Janish

I don't see how they justify (save for that $2.5M sunk cost) keeping Miles>Sutton. Hoping I'm right here. It's close between Nix/Balentin. Francisco's defense is atrocious at every position and needs to shore that up before being on the 25-man pre-Sept. No need to rush him since he's not going to see regular AB's up here. Let him work on things (plate disciple being one, defense the other) down in AAA.

OnBaseMachine
03-24-2010, 12:12 PM
Here's what my 25 man roster would look like:

SP:

Aaron Harang
Johnny Cueto
Bronson Arroyo
Homer Bailey
Matt Maloney

Bullpen:

Micah Owings
Daniel Ray Herrera
Arthur Rhodes
Jared Burton
Logan Ondrusek
Nick Masset
Francisco Cordero

Starters:

C Ramon Hernandez
1B Joey Votto
2B Brandon Phillips
SS Orlando Cabrera
3B Scott Rolen
LF Chris Dickerson (or Gomes/Balentien)
CF Drew Stubbs
RF Jay Bruce

Bench:

C Ryan Hanigan
OF Jonny Gomes
OF Wladimir Balentien
IF Drew Sutton
IF Paul Janish

Carlos Fisher would've been in my bullpen but he'll probably begin the season in Louisville now due to his lack of work this spring caused by a sore arm.

That's my list, not what I think the Reds will do. The Reds will probably take Aaron Miles over Sutton and Mike Lincoln over Ondrusek, and possibly Justin Lehr over Maloney. Chapman would have been my fifth starter but the muscle spasms will probably set him back a few days and take him out of the running for now. Mike Leake and Travis Wood both still have a chance to win the final rotation spot if they finish strong.

SirFelixCat
03-24-2010, 12:30 PM
In a perfect world, I agree w/ you, OBM, re: Ondrusek, but Lincoln will break camp w/ the team and be given every chance. And I genuinely do not think Wood or Leake has a snowballs chance of being #5 to start the season.

Joseph
03-24-2010, 12:38 PM
Harang
Cueto
Arroyo
Bailey
Leake

Cordero
Masset
Rhodes
Burton
Herrera
Maloney
Owings

C - Hernandez
1B - Votto
2B - Phillips
SS - Cabrera
3B - Rolen
LF - Gomes
CF - Stubbs
RF - Bruce

C - Hanigan
OF - Dickerson
OF - Nix
IF - Miles
SS - Janish

Nasty_Boy
03-24-2010, 01:08 PM
C
Hernandez
Hanigan

INF
Votto
Phillips
Cabrera
Rolen
Sutton
Janish

OF
Stubbs
Dickerson
Gomes
Bruce
Wlad

SP
Harang
Arroyo
Cueto
Bailey
Wood

RP
Coco
Masset
Burton
DRH
Rhodes
Owings
Lincoln

RedsManRick
03-24-2010, 01:19 PM
Not what I prefer, but I think will happen

SP1 Harang
SP2 Cueto
SP3 Arroyo
SP4 Bailey
SP5 Lehr

CL Cordero
SU Masset
SU Rhodes
MR Burton
MR Herrera
LR Lincoln
LR Owings

C Hernandez
1B Votto
2B Phillips
SS Cabrera
3B Rolen
LF Gomes
CF Stubbs
RF Bruce

C Hanigan
OF Dickerson
OF Nix
IF Miles
SS Janish

Spring~Fields
03-24-2010, 01:30 PM
Each of you have already laid out the list nicely, which I mostly agree with.
So I will spin it a bit differently

The season is a long season. I know I have listed more than 25 here, but, I think many of these stand a good chance of seeing a good amount of playing time with the major league Cincinnati Reds in 2010. I probably omitted someone or more by accident but, I wanted to also look at how the youth movement is progressing too with this young Reds team under Mr. Jocketty.


Player Age
1 Arthur Rhodes 40
2 Orlando Cabrera 35
3 Miguel Cairo 35
4 Francisco Cordero 34
5 Mike Lincoln 34
6 Scott Rolen 34
7 Corky Miller 34
8 Aaron Miles 33
9 Ramon Hernandez 33
10 Bronson Arroyo 33
11 Justin Lehr 32
12 Kip Wells 32
13 Aaron Harang 31
14 Chris Burke 30
15 Jonny Gomes 29
16 Laynce Nix 29
17 Ryan Hanigan 29
18 Brandon Phillips 28
19 Jared Burton 28
20 Chris Dickerson 27
21 Paul Janish 27
22 Nick Masset 27
23 Micah Owings 27
24 Carlos Fisher 27
25 Drew Sutton 26
26 Joey Votto 26
27 Wladimir Balentien 25
28 Danny Herrera 25
29 Drew Stubbs 25
30 Johnny Cueto 24
31 Homer Bailey 23
32 Jay Bruce 22

RED VAN HOT
03-24-2010, 01:49 PM
It is a good sign that there are so few questions in the 25 with another week and a half of spring training. In the areas in which there are questions, I think the Reds will give the nod to the more experienced major leaguers to start the season. Thus, I think they will take Miles over Sutton and Lincoln over Ondrusek. There are no infield spots at Louisville for Sutton, but he can take turns DH'ing. I have no idea what they will do with Burke and Cairo. It seems to me that they can only keep one in AAA.

The fifth outfield spot may be the exception to the experience rule as I believe the Reds will keep Balentien over Nix. I suspect that the Reds see Balentien as the RH power bat of the future. I don't believe his spring discouraged that view. He does need to get some playing time, however, instead of remaining in pinch hit, fifth OF limbo.

mth123
03-24-2010, 08:58 PM
Harang
Cueto
Arroyo
Bailey
Lehr

Owings
Maloney
Burton
Herrera
Masset
Rhodes
Cordero

Hernandez
Hanigan

Votto
Phillips
Cabrera
Rolen
Janish
Sutton

Bruce
Stubbs
Gomes
Dickerson
Balentien

TheNext44
03-25-2010, 12:02 AM
SP1 Harang
SP2 Cueto
SP3 Arroyo
SP4 Bailey
SP5 Leake

CL Cordero
SU Masset
SU Rhodes
MR Maloney
MR Herrera
LR Lincoln
LR Owings

C Hernandez
1B Votto
2B Phillips
SS Cabrera
3B Rolen
LF Balentien
CF Stubbs
RF Bruce

C Hanigan
OF Dickerson
OF Gomes
IF Sutton
SS Janish

Burton is too much like Masset, only not as good.
Still sticking with Wlad beating Gomes out of LF job, and Leake winning the 5th starter job.

Guacarock
03-25-2010, 02:52 AM
SP

Harang
Bailey
Cueto
Arroyo
Wood

Bullpen

Owings
Lincoln
Herrera
Burton
Rhodes
Masset
Cordero

C Hernandez
1B Votto
2B Phillips
SS Cabrera
3B Rolen
LF Gomes
CF Stubbs
RF Bruce

Bench

Hanigan
Sutton
Janish
Dickerson
Balentien

Pretty much the same as my roster projection a week ago in a different thread, except then I had Maloney in the mix instead of Wood. The fact is, Maloney's not getting stretched out sufficiently to join the rotation. At best, he can now hope for a reassignment to the bullpen, but more likely he's being dangled for a trade or held in reserve in the hope that he can escape being claimed on the waiver wire.

Chapman's back spasms and the complexities of his contract dictate that he won't crack the rotation. Leake's tantalizing, but awfully young. Lehr is known and he's proving himself dependable for the short haul, but if the Reds can't introduce Chapman to start the spring, then my hunch is they'll go with another hot, young lefty -- Wood -- not only on the basis of merit, but also to generate some buzz and to add variety to the Starting Five.

Otherwise, I could be off in my prediction of Sutton landing the nod over Miles for utility infielder. Sutton has an option remaining, so he can be stashed at Louisville for the time being. Wouldn't shock me in the least if that happens.

But Sutton has not only outplayed Miles this spring, he's starting to look like a primetime candidate to take over at 2B once Phillips' salary escalates beyond our reach. I'd want Sutton on the roster from day one in 2010 just to be sure. Miles won't be cut until the last hours of spring, and won't be cut at all if he can step up his game over the next 10 days. If he can't and also can't be stowed on the DL, then his stint with the Reds might be short-lived, even with Walt in his corner.

Lincoln's also on a short leash, but I can't imagine the team letting go of both him and Miles in one fell swoop. After nine years of losing, the Reds have a genuine PR incentive to demonstrate to fans that they're willing to swallow some "sunk costs" to improve. But being the Reds, I don't see them jettisoning both Miles and Lincoln at the same time. Their market is small, their budget is fixed, their hands are somewhat tied, so they'll have to move forward, but do so incrementally. Remember the adage from WHAT ABOUT BOB? Baby steps...

SirFelixCat
03-28-2010, 07:34 PM
Rotation

1 S1 Harang
2 S2 Cuteo
3 S3 Arroyo
4 S4 Bailey
5 S5 Wood (over Maloney)

Pen

6 CL Cordero
7 RSU Masset
8 LSU Rhodes
9 LOOGY Herrera
10 MR Burton
11 MR Ondrusek (over Lincoln)
12 LR Owings

Starting Catcher

13 C Hernandez


Starting Infield

15 1B Votto
16 2B Phillips
17 SS Cabrera
18 3B Rolen

Outfield

19 LF Gomes
20 CF Stubbs
21 RF Bruce

Bench

14 C Hanigan
22 OF Dickerson
23 Util Sutton
24 OF Balentin
25 IF Janish

I don't see how they justify (save for that $2.5M sunk cost) keeping Miles>Sutton. Hoping I'm right here. It's close between Nix/Balentin. Francisco's defense is atrocious at every position and needs to shore that up before being on the 25-man pre-Sept. No need to rush him since he's not going to see regular AB's up here. Let him work on things (plate disciple being one, defense the other) down in AAA.

Ok, I've made 2 more changes. My question for you guys is could the Reds keep Lincoln and have Ondrusek replace Burton?

Spring~Fields
03-29-2010, 02:58 PM
Redleg Nation

Projected Reds Roster

http://redlegnation.com/2010/03/28/projected-reds-roster/

Playadlc
03-29-2010, 03:00 PM
Not to hijack, but is gonelong not doing his annual predictions thread?

TheNext44
03-29-2010, 04:22 PM
In the pre-game interview today, Dusty mentioned how they are hoping that Burton can put it together before the season starts, then immediately mentioned how impressive Ondrusek has been.

I wouldn't consider Burton a lock just yet.

dfs
03-29-2010, 04:34 PM
Redleg Nation

Projected Reds Roster

http://redlegnation.com/2010/03/28/projected-reds-roster/

That's the prospectus guys' projected roster.

Bumstead
03-29-2010, 04:34 PM
I think Redleg Nation has it right. Maybe with Burton/Ondrusek/Maloney being the open spot. Not sure why anyone worries about whether Miles or Sutton make the team; both will be pretty insignificant now and in the future. Miles probably has a better glove and the experience/contract which puts him on the roster. If Sutton has any value at all, why not just trade him for what they can get? The Reds have plenty of flexibility on the roster and at AAA to cover anything Sutton can do.

Bum

Will M
03-29-2010, 07:51 PM
I think Redleg Nation has it right. Maybe with Burton/Ondrusek/Maloney being the open spot. Not sure why anyone worries about whether Miles or Sutton make the team; both will be pretty insignificant now and in the future. Miles probably has a better glove and the experience/contract which puts him on the roster. If Sutton has any value at all, why not just trade him for what they can get? The Reds have plenty of flexibility on the roster and at AAA to cover anything Sutton can do.

Bum

Rolen has not been a picture of health the last few years. I for one don't want to see Miles playing 3B in 42 games this year & also filling in at 1B/2B. Miles is likely BELOW replacement level. The main backup IF on the Reds could get 300 PAs. No way I want Miles in that role. I want Sutton or Frazier. If these guys can't cut it then go make a trade.

TheNext44
03-29-2010, 08:01 PM
Rolen has not been a picture of health the last few years. I for one don't want to see Miles playing 3B in 42 games this year & also filling in at 1B/2B. Miles is likely BELOW replacement level. The main backup IF on the Reds could get 300 PAs. No way I want Miles in that role. I want Sutton or Frazier. If these guys can't cut it then go make a trade.

If Rolen gets injured, either Frazier or Francisco will get called up, even if Miles in on the team (which is looking less likely everyday).

And for quick rests for Rolen, I could see the Reds putting Janish at SS and moving Cabrera to 3B for a game every now and then.

The Reds have the depth to handle injuries much better this year.

mbgrayson
03-29-2010, 08:17 PM
Pitchers (12):
Starters:
1. Harang
2. Cueto
3. Arroyo
4. Bailey
5. Leake
Relief:
6. Cordero
7. Masset
8. Rhodes
9. Ondrusek
10. Herrera
11. Maloney
12. Owings

Starting eight:
1. Drew Stubbs (cf)
2. Orlando Cabrerra(ss)
3. Joey Votto(1b)
4. Brandon Phillips(2b)
5. Scott Rolen(3b)
6. Jay Bruce(rf)
7. Johny Gomes(lf)
8. Ramon Hernandez(c)


Bench players (5)
1. Dickerson
2. Hanigan
3. Janish
4. Balentin
5. Sutton

Will M
03-29-2010, 08:19 PM
If Rolen gets injured, either Frazier or Francisco will get called up, even if Miles in on the team (which is looking less likely everyday).

And for quick rests for Rolen, I could see the Reds putting Janish at SS and moving Cabrera to 3B for a game every now and then.

The Reds have the depth to handle injuries much better this year.

#1 what if Frazier isn't ready? he sure didn't look ready this spring.

as to JF. offensively i don't want him in Cincinnati until his plate discipline improves. defensively he can't play 3B.

also remember not every injury is a DL stint. those nagging injuries that cause a guy to miss a game or two can add up. think about every time Rolen tweaks his back, BP gets hit on the wrist, Joey gets a flu bug, etc. if Miles is on the team he will be the one filling in. Patterson 2008, Willy 2009 then Miles 2010. by the All Star break RedsZone will have imploded.

therefore i would most prefer Sutton over Miles.

#2 your Janish at SS with Cabrera at 3B could work in a pinch but seems a little light in the offense department. i would prefer the 2nd backup IF be someone who can actually hit. i had hoped Frazier was this guy. Mr SuperSub 2010. but he had a poor spring. i hope Sutton can fill this role until Frazier is ready

#3 anybody wish the Reds had signed Felipe Lopez on the cheap?

Bumstead
03-30-2010, 12:21 AM
And you think Sutton is not going to be light in the offensive department? If he gets 300 PA's the Reds are going to be way out of the race...

Mario-Rijo
03-30-2010, 12:42 AM
And you think Sutton is not going to be light in the offensive department? If he gets 300 PA's the Reds are going to be way out of the race...

Depends on your definition of light. Lighter than Miles, no. Sutton is no sure fire solution but he is likely a better overall option than Miles. So if we are stuck with one of the 2 getting that many PA's I'd prefer it was Sutton. At least he has some pop and that from the left side from an IF would be nice to have.

Will M
03-30-2010, 03:19 AM
And you think Sutton is not going to be light in the offensive department? If he gets 300 PA's the Reds are going to be way out of the race...

there is a chance that Sutton will be a solid bench player or occasional starter. heck, there is a chance he could develop into a major league starter at 2B or 3B. there is ZERO chance Miles does either of these.

Ron Madden
03-30-2010, 03:33 AM
I'm willing to bet both Miles and Nix survive the final cut.

Dusty will go with experience over upside 90% of the time.

Bumstead
03-30-2010, 09:32 AM
there is a chance that Sutton will be a solid bench player or occasional starter. heck, there is a chance he could develop into a major league starter at 2B or 3B. there is ZERO chance Miles does either of these.

There is almost no chance that Sutton turns into a MLB starter or even plays above AAA for any length of time. He is bad defensively everywhere except 1B and he is pretty bad with the bat. Miles has actually been serviceable as a MLB starter and utility guy throughout his career. Sutton will most likely never have the career Miles has had (I acknowledge he was bad last year and may not get back to his normal production)...What do you even base that statement on? He was only a top 10 prospect for Houston because their farm system was horrible and now he's 26 and turns 27 at the end of June. Really, it doesn't matter which one makes the team out of spring training but Miles can at least catch the ball should he need to play now and then.

Bum

Will M
03-30-2010, 03:56 PM
There is almost no chance that Sutton turns into a MLB starter or even plays above AAA for any length of time. He is bad defensively everywhere except 1B and he is pretty bad with the bat. Miles has actually been serviceable as a MLB starter and utility guy throughout his career. Sutton will most likely never have the career Miles has had (I acknowledge he was bad last year and may not get back to his normal production)...What do you even base that statement on? He was only a top 10 prospect for Houston because their farm system was horrible and now he's 26 and turns 27 at the end of June. Really, it doesn't matter which one makes the team out of spring training but Miles can at least catch the ball should he need to play now and then.

Bum

WAR data is available from 2003-2009. Miles total Wins Over Replacement in seven years is zero. For a guy who is 34 years old I expect further decline. Since his career WAR value is zero I expect in the future that he will be below replacement level.

Miles cannot 'catch the ball' very well. He has been a negative defender for his career. Fangraphs has detailed player data on defense.

Miles had an abyssmal 2009. He is in the position of having to win a roster spot. So far this spring he has played poorly.

As for Sutton vs Miles: I said there is a chance. I never said it was even a good chance but since we know Miles is a poor player any chance beats zero.

For the record CHONE predicts Sutton as a 1.2 WAR player for 2010. That is the only 'official' or 'scientific' prediction I could find on him.

One last thing on Sutton: remember he was a 25 year old rookie last year but that season was a washout due to his having infectious mononucleosis.

Bumstead
03-30-2010, 04:04 PM
WAR data is available from 2003-2009. Miles total Wins Over Replacement in seven years is zero. For a guy who is 34 years old I expect further decline. Since his career WAR value is zero I expect in the future that he will be below replacement level.

Miles cannot 'catch the ball' very well. He has been a negative defender for his career. Fangraphs has detailed player data on defense.

Miles had an abyssmal 2009. He is in the position of having to win a roster spot. So far this spring he has played poorly.

As for Sutton vs Miles: I said there is a chance. I never said it was even a good chance but since we know Miles is a poor player any chance beats zero.

For the record CHONE predicts Sutton as a 1.2 WAR player for 2010. That is the only 'official' or 'scientific' prediction I could find on him.

One last thing on Sutton: remember he was a 25 year old rookie last year but that season was a washout due to his having infectious mononucleosis.

eh...I don't really care which player makes the team, but I doubt that either player is worth anything WAR or otherwise...If Sutton has value, trade him. Frazier can come up if needed to fill in at 3B for a few weeks here and there. If Sutton makes the team and Miles is dumped, I don't think anyone will notice one way or the other and Frazier will still come up and play 3B if needed to cover one of Rolen's DL stints. JMO

Bum

Kc61
03-30-2010, 04:08 PM
Funny thing is, Miles and Sutton could both make the team. At least for a few days. Dusty said they might keep an extra position player and keep the fifth starting pitcher in the minors until needed.

TheNext44
03-30-2010, 07:46 PM
Considering the play of Sutton and Miles this spring, I have to think that Cairo and Castillo are in the mix for the backup infielder spot.

SirFelixCat
03-30-2010, 08:09 PM
Considering the play of Sutton and Miles this spring, I have to think that Cairo and Castillo are in the mix for the backup infielder spot.

Castillo could definitely find himself on the roster. Super sub that also catches. Kids had a pretty solid spring. Granted small sample, it's spring, etc, but still...

But, since Chapman's going to the minors, I assume that Castillo will follow him.

Will M
03-30-2010, 09:46 PM
Considering the play of Sutton and Miles this spring, I have to think that Cairo and Castillo are in the mix for the backup infielder spot.


Castillo could definitely find himself on the roster. Super sub that also catches. Kids had a pretty solid spring. Granted small sample, it's spring, etc, but still...

But, since Chapman's going to the minors, I assume that Castillo will follow him.

Sutton's game today was big. Get some good swings & win the roster spot.
Instead he wiffed.

I agree on Castillo. He hasn't impressed since the trade but he has had a nice spring.