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View Full Version : Could the Reds make a deal with Boston?



Ron Madden
03-27-2010, 05:19 AM
According to reports the BoSox are looking for help in the bullpen and a utility INFer who can back up at SS.

Thoughts?

Mario-Rijo
03-27-2010, 05:39 AM
According to reports the BoSox are looking for help in the bullpen and a utility INFer who can back up at SS.

Thoughts?

Sure how about Miles, Lincoln and Balentein for Hermida!

mth123
03-27-2010, 06:22 AM
According to reports the BoSox are looking for help in the bullpen and a utility INFer who can back up at SS.

Thoughts?

These kinds of deals don't usually happen in spring and its doubtful that the Reds are even thinking along these lines, but Janish, Burton, Lincoln and Wlad for Jeremy Hermida. Gomes & Hermida would be a fine platoon in LF that would really go a long way toward fixing the offense.

Wlad could be the 4th OF in Boston, Janish would be the SS depth they are looking for and Burton would bolster the pen. Lincoln would give them another arm to look at and would help even up the cash.

Harang, Arroyo, Cueto, Bailey, whoever.

Owings, Maloney, Ondrusek, Herrera, Rhodes, Masset, Cordero.

Hernandez, Hanigan

Votto, Phillips, Cabrera, Rolen, Sutton, Miles (ugh!)

Bruce, Stubbs, Hermida, Gomes, Dickerson

mth123
03-27-2010, 06:24 AM
Sure how about Miles, Lincoln and Balentein for Hermida!

Didn't see your post, but Hermida would be perfect for the reds. The Reds would need to give up more for him though and still may not be able to get him.

Mario-Rijo
03-27-2010, 06:34 AM
Didn't see your post, but Hermida would be perfect for the reds. The Reds would need to give up more for him though and still may not be able to get him.

I'm sure your right but I'd take a shot, heck I'd have nothing to lose.

Scrap Irony
03-27-2010, 12:14 PM
While Hermida is fine, I'd be looking for a prospect or two. How about Miles and Lincoln for a low A C prospect and a low A suspect with talent but no production? Because there's little chance the Sox make a deal for actual major league talent and add payroll.

The loss of payroll alone (about $45 million) means the Reds could upgrade at another position at the Trading Deadline.

westofyou
03-27-2010, 12:45 PM
According to reports the BoSox are looking for help in the bullpen and a utility INFer who can back up at SS.

Thoughts?

Didn't they just get an IF (Fradson from SF) and a reliever?

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2010/03/schoeneweis_rea.html

Bill
03-27-2010, 12:52 PM
Why the continued fascination with Hermida, a career .769 OPS hitter, .740 last year. I'd take my chances on Wlad first whom is a year younger I believe.

Put me in the dump salary and be happy with it camp.

traderumor
03-27-2010, 01:00 PM
Why the continued fascination with Hermida, a career .769 OPS hitter, .740 last year. I'd take my chances on Wlad first whom is a year younger I believe.

Put me in the dump salary and be happy with it camp.If you find out, you can fill me in, as well.

westofyou
03-27-2010, 01:31 PM
Why the continued fascination with Hermida, a career .769 OPS hitter, .740 last year. I'd take my chances on Wlad first whom is a year younger I believe.

Put me in the dump salary and be happy with it camp.

Just cut him from my strat team

Ron Madden
03-27-2010, 03:38 PM
Didn't they just get an IF (Fradson from SF) and a reliever?

Yes. I just checked mlbtraderumors.com and noticed both of those moves have been made.

Mario-Rijo
03-27-2010, 03:52 PM
Why the continued fascination with Hermida, a career .769 OPS hitter, .740 last year. I'd take my chances on Wlad first whom is a year younger I believe.

Put me in the dump salary and be happy with it camp.

Just take a look at the mans splits outside of cavernous Florida. Just like Beltre the Red Sox are pretty smart at picking guys who are bound to do much better offensively than many suspect them to because they delve deeper. His LH power (in GABP and NL Central) would be a welcome addition to this lineup in a platoon with Gomes or not.

Career .815 OPS away from Florida (112 OPS+) .276/.359/.456
Career .792 OPS vs. RHP (106 OPS+) .274/.351/.441

TheNext44
03-27-2010, 04:40 PM
Just take a look at the mans splits outside of cavernous Florida. Just like Beltre the Red Sox are pretty smart at picking guys who are bound to do much better offensively than many suspect them to because they delve deeper. His LH power (in GABP and NL Central) would be a welcome addition to this lineup in a platoon with Gomes or not.

Career .815 OPS away from Florida (112 OPS+) .276/.359/.456
Career .792 OPS vs. RHP (106 OPS+) .274/.351/.441

And he's a below average fielder, even in left.

I still don't see those numbers being an upgrade over Balentien, especially when you consider Wlad's upside, speed and defense.

The team would save around $1M in that deal, but I'd still rather have Wlad than Hermida and the extra $1M.

Orenda
03-27-2010, 04:58 PM
Just take a look at the mans splits outside of cavernous Florida. Just like Beltre the Red Sox are pretty smart at picking guys who are bound to do much better offensively than many suspect them to because they delve deeper. His LH power (in GABP and NL Central) would be a welcome addition to this lineup in a platoon with Gomes or not.

Career .815 OPS away from Florida (112 OPS+) .276/.359/.456
Career .792 OPS vs. RHP (106 OPS+) .274/.351/.441

Agreed. If he can get on the field regularly this season I think he'll have a good year. I'd love to see him as a Red.

blumj
03-27-2010, 05:19 PM
They signed Schoeneweis and Alan Embree, and traded for Frandsen. Jed Lowrie has mono, of all things.

Heath
03-27-2010, 05:28 PM
Just cut him from my strat team

Ouch. I bet he took that hard.

:D

PuffyPig
03-27-2010, 08:43 PM
Sure how about Miles, Lincoln and Balentein for Hermida!

That was bullpen "help"....

Mario-Rijo
03-27-2010, 10:18 PM
That was bullpen "help"....

Touche'

blumj
03-27-2010, 10:35 PM
Then they signed Alan Embree and Scott Schoeneweis, so maybe you don't need to take the word "help" so literally.

Mario-Rijo
03-27-2010, 10:50 PM
And he's a below average fielder, even in left.

I still don't see those numbers being an upgrade over Balentien, especially when you consider Wlad's upside, speed and defense.

The team would save around $1M in that deal, but I'd still rather have Wlad than Hermida and the extra $1M.

I wish I could expect numbers like that from Wlad. And I can't put my finger on it with him but I just don't expect to see them for whatever reason. Seeing him more this season should help me put my finger on it.....or change my mind hopefully. I will give you Hermida's defense isn't great but not sure why he has the physical tools to be a good RF. I guess I'd rather have a solid offensive player who is a bit rough around the edges defensively (with the tools to get it right) than a solid defensive player who is a bit more rough around the edges offensively (with the tools to maybe get it right).

mth123
03-28-2010, 01:31 AM
The most overrated thing on Redszone is Wlad's defense. I don't see it. He's allright for his power potential but I'd say he's below average defensively and not a great runner. Hermida has a much higher ceiling and provides more power/on base skill than any lefty the reds have not named Bruce or Votto. He's what's missing on the roster. The other half to a middle of the order platoon for LF. He and Gomes could be a Carbo/McRae type productive platoon.

It doesn't matter though. The team seems to think that Rolen and Phillips are legit middle of the order guys and with those two guys forming two thirds of the 3, 4, 5 combo, this team just won't score enough runs to win 80 games. They would be much better off pushing them to lesser roles (Rolen in the 2 hole and Phillips hitting 6th) with Bruce and a legit LF power source (even if it comes in the form of a platoon) hitting 4 and 5.

TheNext44
03-28-2010, 02:02 AM
The most overrated thing on Redszone is Wlad's defense. I don't see it. He's allright for his power potential but I'd say he's below average defensively and not a great runner. Hermida has a much higher ceiling and provides more power/on base skill than any lefty the reds have not named Bruce or Votto. He's what's missing on the roster. The other half to a middle of the order platoon for LF. He and Gomes could be a Carbo/McRae type productive platoon.

It doesn't matter though. The team seems to think that Rolen and Phillips are legit middle of the order guys and with those two guys forming two thirds of the 3, 4, 5 combo, this team just won't score enough runs to win 80 games. They would be much better off pushing them to lesser roles (Rolen in the 2 hole and Phillips hitting 6th) with Bruce and a legit LF power source (even if it comes in the form of a platoon) hitting 4 and 5.

I agree that Hermida would be a nice addition, (and I like your proposal for the lineup), although I wouldn't go so far as saying that he is what is missing from the roster.

But I don't think he is worth trading Wlad for. If Wlad has to be traded because he's not going to make the team, Hermida would be better than what I think the team could get for Wlad, considering he is out of options. But I would still rather have Wlad on the team than Hermida.

OnBaseMachine
03-28-2010, 02:13 AM
The most overrated thing on Redszone is Wlad's defense. I don't see it.

My eyes tell me Wlad is a solid defender, not a plus defender but above average, and UZR also has him as above average. It's still a fairly small sample size (1189.2 innings), but UZR has him as a +4.6 (+5.6 UZR/150) defender so far in his big league career. I like Balentien's tools. Solid defender, very good power, decent plate discipline. He may never be a star but he's got the potential to be an above average player, IMO. I hope the Reds keep him around.

mth123
03-28-2010, 02:24 AM
I agree that Hermida would be a nice addition, (and I like your proposal for the lineup), although I wouldn't go so far as saying that he is what is missing from the roster.

But I don't think he is worth trading Wlad for. If Wlad has to be traded because he's not going to make the team, Hermida would be better than what I think the team could get for Wlad, considering he is out of options. But I would still rather have Wlad on the team than Hermida.

I think Seattle cut Wlad loose for a reason. IMO he's in the Nix, Burke, Wells failed prospect group. Sometimes those guys can be pretty decent the second time around (Brandon Phillips, Josh Hamilton and Cody Ross are some recent examples with reds ties) but I think its foolish to count on it. A flyer on a guy like Wlad is fine for a team that really isn't going anywhere and looking to add to its talent base from cheap and unexpected sources, but this team considers itself a contender and needs to go with a more locked in set of production at such a critical spot (I'm talking about the third member of the 3, 4, 5 power trio). I think Gomes/Hermida would be a pretty effective and solid platoon that would provide that missing third slugger on a daily basis. That is something they won't get in a Dickerson/Gomes or a Dickerson/Wlad or a Dickerson/Anybody platoon. The team needs a power lefty that can get on base. Wlad is more of a hope at this point and if a team wants to contend, or even pretend it can contend, it should do better.

Guacarock
03-28-2010, 02:52 AM
The team seems to think that Rolen and Phillips are legit middle of the order guys and with those two guys forming two thirds of the 3, 4, 5 combo, this team just won't score enough runs to win 80 games. They would be much better off pushing them to lesser roles (Rolen in the 2 hole and Phillips hitting 6th) with Bruce and a legit LF power source (even if it comes in the form of a platoon) hitting 4 and 5.

By and large, I agree with your analysis. The Reds' offense probably won't hit on all cylinders with Rolen and Phillips occupying two-thirds of our "power alley."

Ideally, Rolen should hit 2nd, and Phillips 5th or 6th.

I can see Rolen transitioning to batting 2nd sometime this season, particularly if his OBP remains high while his SLG percentage continues to drop. Rolen will move up in the batting order sooner, rather than later, if Cabrera falters.

I don't see as much likelihood of Phillips vacating the clean-up slot. With his salary due to escalate to $11 million next season, the team has a financial incentive to present him to potential trading partners as a genuine sultan of swat. He'll only be dislodged if he has an extended, early-season slump or if Bruce or Gomes truly go ballistic. Even then, I can't see Phillips being designated to hit 6th. Maybe 5th in the batting order.

Ron Madden
03-28-2010, 03:13 AM
It would take an act of God for Dusty to move Phillips or Rolen away from the middle of the lineup in my opinion. Dusty won't move them nor will he place hitters with the skills to reach base in front of them.


Dusty sees both of them as RBI guys. I don't think Dusty appreciates or fully understands the value of OBP or OPS.

Benihana
03-28-2010, 10:31 AM
I think Seattle cut Wlad loose for a reason. IMO he's in the Nix, Burke, Wells failed prospect group. Sometimes those guys can be pretty decent the second time around (Brandon Phillips, Josh Hamilton and Cody Ross are some recent examples with reds ties) but I think its foolish to count on it. A flyer on a guy like Wlad is fine for a team that really isn't going anywhere and looking to add to its talent base from cheap and unexpected sources, but this team considers itself a contender and needs to go with a more locked in set of production at such a critical spot (I'm talking about the third member of the 3, 4, 5 power trio). I think Gomes/Hermida would be a pretty effective and solid platoon that would provide that missing third slugger on a daily basis. That is something they won't get in a Dickerson/Gomes or a Dickerson/Wlad or a Dickerson/Anybody platoon. The team needs a power lefty that can get on base. Wlad is more of a hope at this point and if a team wants to contend, or even pretend it can contend, it should do better.

Isn't Hermida part of that failed prospect group as well? Sure he's shown flashes of being a great player, but last I checked the guy has a .769 career OPS, and hasn't done better than .740 since 2007.

Mario-Rijo
03-28-2010, 11:28 AM
Isn't Hermida part of that failed prospect group as well? Sure he's shown flashes of being a great player, but last I checked the guy has a .769 career OPS, and hasn't done better than .740 since 2007.

Which makes him a clearly better pro than Wlad. His best numbers to this point in his career was last year as a Red (in 125 PA's) aside from that short sample he had yet to crack even a .650 OPS as a major leaguer. Perhaps it is just a matter of getting PA's and maybe it's not, maybe it will just prove he isn't major league material as well. Problem is he isn't likely to get enough PA's in '10 to find out either way. I'd deal him because I just don't see it in him or us having the time to find out.

Plus Plus
03-28-2010, 11:30 AM
Just take a look at the mans splits outside of cavernous Florida. Just like Beltre the Red Sox are pretty smart at picking guys who are bound to do much better offensively than many suspect them to because they delve deeper. His LH power (in GABP and NL Central) would be a welcome addition to this lineup in a platoon with Gomes or not.

Career .815 OPS away from Florida (112 OPS+) .276/.359/.456
Career .792 OPS vs. RHP (106 OPS+) .274/.351/.441

Last year, Sun Life Stadium in Miami, FL had a park factor of 1.136, making it the fourth best hitters park in baseball. It was above average in all aspects except for 3b, which it suppressed significantly. If Hermida can't cut it offensively there, why should the Reds want to give up anything at all for him?

Mario-Rijo
03-28-2010, 11:36 AM
Last year, Sun Life Stadium in Miami, FL had a park factor of 1.136, making it the fourth best hitters park in baseball. It was above average in all aspects except for 3b, which it suppressed significantly. If Hermida can't cut it offensively there, why should the Reds want to give up anything at all for him?

It may well be a better hitters park than most, although not sure how that is possible. However even if it is doesn't mean it is designed for all hitters equally and I'd argue that is the case for Hermida as is evidenced by his splits.

mth123
03-28-2010, 11:49 AM
Isn't Hermida part of that failed prospect group as well? Sure he's shown flashes of being a great player, but last I checked the guy has a .769 career OPS, and hasn't done better than .740 since 2007.

No, it makes him a platoon player with a career OPS of .792 vs. RHP with an OBP over .350 and a slugging % just shy of .450 in a home park that is pretty difficult to hit in. He's not a world beater but he's not a washout who was released either. I see a huge difference there.

Benihana
03-28-2010, 11:55 AM
Which makes him a clearly better pro than Wlad. His best numbers to this point in his career was last year as a Red (in 125 PA's) aside from that short sample he had yet to crack even a .650 OPS as a major leaguer. Perhaps it is just a matter of getting PA's and maybe it's not, maybe it will just prove he isn't major league material as well. Problem is he isn't likely to get enough PA's in '10 to find out either way. I'd deal him because I just don't see it in him or us having the time to find out.

Wlad was also playing in an extreme pitcher's park until those last 125 PAs, while Hermida was playing in the opposite. I don't see any difference in offensive production between Wlad and Hermida going forward. None.

I wouldn't give up anything of value for Hermida at this point in his career. I also wouldn't give up on Wlad.

Benihana
03-28-2010, 11:56 AM
No, it makes him a platoon player with a career OPS of .792 vs. RHP with an OBP over .350 and a slugging % just shy of .450 in a home park that is pretty difficult to hit in. He's not a world beater but he's not a washout who was released either. I see a huge difference there.

Was Wlad a washout who was released? Last I checked Hermida has been on three different teams in the last year.

mth123
03-28-2010, 11:58 AM
Last year, Sun Life Stadium in Miami, FL had a park factor of 1.136, making it the fourth best hitters park in baseball. It was above average in all aspects except for 3b, which it suppressed significantly. If Hermida can't cut it offensively there, why should the Reds want to give up anything at all for him?

Well in my proposal they aren't giving up much. A SS who's only value is his ability to handle the spot defensively every day but isn't good enough to play every day, a reliever who doesn't have a spot on the staff and is going to earn $2.5 Million in 2010, a reliever who had a poor season in 09 and is blocking younger, cheaper guys from rotating through as the 12th man and an OF who is out of options and redundant with better guys for now (Gomes) and in the future (Heisey). In return they fill a need with a player who offers a skillset they are missing (LH Bat with pop and on base skills).

Looks like the Red Sox went elsewhere anyway. If I were them I would probably rather have Hermida.

jojo
03-28-2010, 11:59 AM
I agree that Wlad's defense isn't all that.... IMO, he's basically a neutral defender on the corners.

mth123
03-28-2010, 12:09 PM
Was Wlad a washout who was released? Last I checked Hermida has been on three different teams in the last year.

Really? Baseball Reference shows him in Fla from 2005 through 2009 and was dealt in the offseason because Fla didn't want to pay his arb. Wlad was DFAd and dealt for a career minor leaguer.

Benihana
03-28-2010, 12:14 PM
Really? Baseball Reference shows him in Fla from 2005 through 2009 and was dealt in the offsesson because Fla didn't want to pay his arb. Wlad was DFAd and dealt for a career minor leaguer.

Sorry I confused him with Willingham. My fault. I'm still fine with Wlad though.

TheNext44
03-28-2010, 02:28 PM
I think Seattle cut Wlad loose for a reason. IMO he's in the Nix, Burke, Wells failed prospect group. Sometimes those guys can be pretty decent the second time around (Brandon Phillips, Josh Hamilton and Cody Ross are some recent examples with reds ties) but I think its foolish to count on it. A flyer on a guy like Wlad is fine for a team that really isn't going anywhere and looking to add to its talent base from cheap and unexpected sources, but this team considers itself a contender and needs to go with a more locked in set of production at such a critical spot (I'm talking about the third member of the 3, 4, 5 power trio). I think Gomes/Hermida would be a pretty effective and solid platoon that would provide that missing third slugger on a daily basis. That is something they won't get in a Dickerson/Gomes or a Dickerson/Wlad or a Dickerson/Anybody platoon. The team needs a power lefty that can get on base. Wlad is more of a hope at this point and if a team wants to contend, or even pretend it can contend, it should do better.

The overwhelming number of top prospects who don't cut it, fail because of injury, not because of talent. Nearly all top prospects who start off slow, or fail at first, and who stay healthy, eventually become solid producers.

Wlad has not been injured, and simply was rushed.

jojo
03-28-2010, 03:30 PM
The overwhelming number of top prospects who don't cut it, fail because of injury, not because of talent. Nearly all top prospects who start off slow, or fail at first, and who stay healthy, eventually become solid producers.

Wlad has not been injured, and simply was rushed.

Wlad actually benefited from four option years. I don't think one could argue he was rushed as he had 700 PAs at AAA between 2007 and 2008 (he posted an OPS of roughly .900 over that span). To me he's a guy with the upside of an average starting corner outfielder but he hasn't reached that upside yet and we'll see if he does.

TheNext44
03-28-2010, 04:36 PM
Wlad actually benefited from four option years. I don't think one could argue he was rushed as he had 700 PAs at AAA between 2007 and 2008 (he posted an OPS of roughly .900 over that span). To me he's a guy with the upside of an average starting corner outfielder but he hasn't reached that upside yet and we'll see if he does.

I'll grant you he wasn't rushed. But I was wondering what you consider a league average corner outfielder's numbers look like.

jojo
03-28-2010, 04:42 PM
I'll grant you he wasn't rushed. But I was wondering what you consider a league average corner outfielder's numbers look like.

Something like a 2.5 win player.

lollipopcurve
03-28-2010, 04:55 PM
Something like a 2.5 win player.

So, if a team is full of "league average" players (by this metric), is it a .500 team?

mth123
03-28-2010, 05:34 PM
The overwhelming number of top prospects who don't cut it, fail because of injury, not because of talent. Nearly all top prospects who start off slow, or fail at first, and who stay healthy, eventually become solid producers.

Wlad has not been injured, and simply was rushed.

Similar things can be said of Hermida who is only 26. Fact is, Balentien doesn't fit. Gomes is better now. Heisey and probably Frazier will be better in the future. Hermida provides a LH Hitting OF who has the bat for a corner platoon. He's better than Nix and Dickerson for that role. Unless Francisco or Alonso become an OF, the Reds have no one on the horizon to bolster the offense vs. RHP.

jojo
03-28-2010, 06:48 PM
So, if a team is full of "league average" players (by this metric), is it a .500 team?

It's pretty close.