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HUHUH
03-27-2010, 10:58 AM
Thom Brennamen had a few interesting words about stealing bases during yesterday's broadcast. I'm paraphrasing:

Quote:
Drew Stubbs: If he gets on enough, he'll steal 50 or 60 bases falling out of bed. IF HE GETS ON ENOUGH.
Brandon Phillips: He SHOULD steal 30 bases, and Joey Votto SHOULD steal 20.
EndQuote:

Personally, I think if these three get close to those numbers, it would be huge. I also think Thom is implying it likely won't, and perhaps tossing out some blame for that. I'm of the same mind. Heck, I was waiting for Tavares to steal 100 last year, but by about the end of June, after watching him stand on the bag (the few times he did get on), and yelling RUN so loud my throat would hurt, I realized something was wrong. This team wasn't going to run like they should have.

And I'm pessimistic that the 2010 team will run like they should.

Griffey012
03-27-2010, 11:16 AM
Thom Brennamen had a few interesting words about stealing bases during yesterday's broadcast. I'm paraphrasing:

Quote:
Drew Stubbs: If he gets on enough, he'll steal 50 or 60 bases falling out of bed. IF HE GETS ON ENOUGH.
Brandon Phillips: He SHOULD steal 30 bases, and Joey Votto SHOULD steal 20.
EndQuote:

Personally, I think if these three get close to those numbers, it would be huge. I also think Thom is implying it likely won't, and perhaps tossing out some blame for that. I'm of the same mind. Heck, I was waiting for Tavares to steal 100 last year, but by about the end of June, after watching him stand on the bag (the few times he did get on), and yelling RUN so loud my throat would hurt, I realized something was wrong. This team wasn't going to run like they should have.

And I'm pessimistic that the 2010 team will run like they should.

Never seen someone as fast as Taveres take such small leads. I would love to see Stubbs get 50-60 steals.

Chris Sabowned
03-27-2010, 05:55 PM
I would actually like to see Brandon Phillips to steal less. He was good in 07, but over the last two years he was 48 for 67 on steal attempts, that is good for 72%. If you don't have a success rate of 80% or higher than its just not worth it to steal.

Stubbs is around 77% for his minor league career, so its still too early to tell as far as I'm concerned. Although he's always looked to me like the kind of guy who can steal whenever he chooses to.

JayBruceFan
03-27-2010, 07:29 PM
Jay Bruce should run more than he does.

But he is shaky, at best, on the base paths right now so that is probably not going to happen anytime soon

davereds24
03-27-2010, 07:57 PM
don't forget dickerson. if he can stay healthy he should easily reach 20 sb's even if he platoons.

lidspinner
03-27-2010, 09:58 PM
I am a big fan of the Run Early theory....alot of managers used to use this method back in the 80's....then for some reason it just kind of fell off the face of the earth....early in the season you would have guys stealing every chance they got, even the slow ones...the reason was to get the opposing pitcher all nervous come July and August....maybe I am just old and feel like the good ole days have passed but i wish Drew would run every chance he gets/

Griffey012
03-27-2010, 11:23 PM
I would actually like to see Brandon Phillips to steal less. He was good in 07, but over the last two years he was 48 for 67 on steal attempts, that is good for 72%. If you don't have a success rate of 80% or higher than its just not worth it to steal.

Stubbs is around 77% for his minor league career, so its still too early to tell as far as I'm concerned. Although he's always looked to me like the kind of guy who can steal whenever he chooses to.

I understand the 80% aspect that was developed as part of moneyball, but did their work take into consideration the situation. For example if we have 2 outs Phillips on first and Joey falls into a tough 0-2 hole, it is can be positive to have Phillips steal even if he is thrown out because the worst case scenario Joey is back with a fresh AB the next inning. You also have to take into consideration failed hit and runs and also the free bags players take when their team is down 10 runs should be subtracted from the total. Anybody know if things like this were taken into consideration when producing the 80% threshold? Or was it simply just failures and successes?

BLEEDS
03-28-2010, 12:26 PM
With Stubb's, we shouldn't look at his OBP, perhaps his "in scoring position %".
I expect probably 20-25 times this year the #2 hitter will be coming up with nobody on base - and the score +1 for the Reds!

Seriously though, dude has wheels, I've heard everything from fastest Red since Deion Sanders to one of the top 2-3 fastest guys in MLB right now.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

RedLegsToday
04-02-2010, 10:10 AM
Yeah, really hoping Stubbs hits 15-20 hr and steals 40-50 bases. That would be huge, as I have him for $1 on my fantasy keeper team.

Oh, it would be good for the Reds too. ;)

TheBigLebowski
04-02-2010, 11:39 AM
Never seen someone as fast as Taveres take such small leads. I would love to see Stubbs get 50-60 steals.

That's the advantage of having such blinding speed on the basepaths. You don't have to take a large lead for baseball success. The loss of Tavares' speed will set this franchise back 10 years.

Mr Larkin
04-02-2010, 12:34 PM
This team could use its speed to change games. We will see how much risk they are willing to take.