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big boy
03-27-2010, 12:34 PM
Harang was discussed on the ORG and then I saw this (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/369487-reds-2010-should-the-reds-be-concerned-about-aaron-harang) article about him.

I know he isn't an ace but he should be good for 200 innings and an ERA around 4.

improbus
03-27-2010, 01:26 PM
Harang was discussed on the ORG and then I saw this (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/369487-reds-2010-should-the-reds-be-concerned-about-aaron-harang) article about him.

I know he isn't an ace but he should be good for 200 innings and an ERA around 4.
I've been concerned about Harang ever since that fateful day in San Diego...

mattfeet
03-27-2010, 02:43 PM
I've been concerned about Harang ever since that fateful day in San Diego...

Agreed. I know spring training isn't necessarily indicative of the season to come, but Im still worried sick of Harang...

-Matt

BLEEDS
03-27-2010, 03:53 PM
I"m concerned that people worry about a guy who you can pencil in for 200 innings and a 4-ish ERA.

He may be on the decline, but he's been the recipient of HORRIBLE offensive support so his W-L looks bad, but his peripherals are always decent.

In a lineup full of young arms, Harang is a good veteran presence.

He is also a great trading chip since we're not likely to need his veteran presence, not at $12M, next season.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

NastyBoy
03-27-2010, 04:39 PM
Getting pounded in a spring training game does not bode well.

MBZags
03-27-2010, 05:26 PM
Getting pounded in a spring training game does not bode well.

Spring training isn't a great barometer for pretty much anything, though. Harang is still working on his mechanics, and there are always questions about whether a guy is only working on certain pitches. If, by mid-May, Harang is getting pounded, then I'll be concerned.

HalMorrisRules
03-28-2010, 01:48 AM
Am I "biting my fingernails over him" worried? No. Am I concerned he might throw up another 6-14 type season? Absolutely!

Kingspoint
03-28-2010, 02:32 AM
Any concern about Harang?

Other than the fact that he's spent the last two seasons giving up gopher ball after gopher ball making putting him among the bottom 20% of starting pitchers in the National League each of the past two seasons?


I guess not.

Seriously, he's, by far, the weakest link on the team, if only because he's likely to give us 33 starts similar to a #4 or #5 pitcher.

I'd rather have Maloney or Owings giving us 33 starts over Harang.

Harang never lost his ability to pitch. His problem is that he thinks he's a lot better than he actually is and continues to try to get stuff by hitters in the middle of the strike zone, where no pitcher should be placing their pitches.

If Harang can quit serving up meaty pitches.....be willing to walk a few more batters by staying out on the edges of the strike zone, and outside of those edges a few more times, he could get back to being a decent pitcher. But, I don't see that in his makeup. I don't see him willing to change and make that adjustment.

The baseball world has caught up to Aaron Harang, and Harang just doesn't get people out anymore when he needs to, and is more apt to give up a run when he doesn't need to do so.

So, I don't see any reason why he won't pitch just as poorly (forget the ERA of 4.20, as he pitched much worse than that) as he has the last two seasons.

There's nothing anyone can do about it because you can't tell a veteran like him anything. Heck, he's going to be the Opening Day starter and he's our worst starter.

Kingspoint
03-28-2010, 02:34 AM
I think his ERA will balance out this season, and be more indicative of how he's pitched the last two seasons. It should hover around 4.45 by the time August gets here.

The thing about an ERA of 4.45. If a pitcher is having that type of result, he's being replaced as an everyday starter. 85% of your everday starters will have ERA's under 4.40 while 50% of them will have ERA's under 3.60.

Kingspoint
03-28-2010, 02:38 AM
Our starting pitching isn't anywhere near as good as most people think.

It's the weakest part of the team. Our best pitchers are too inexperienced, and our most experienced pitchers are our worst ones.

Kingspoint
03-28-2010, 02:55 AM
Harang's BAbip should be the worst among the starting pitchers.

Estimates for 2010 on BAbip's:

Harang.......BAbip of .320 w/ an OPSa of .782 and a K/BB of 3/1
Arroyo........BAbip of .320 w/ an OPSa of .782 and a K/BB of 2/1
Cueto........BAbip of .285 w/ an OPSa of .760 and a K/BB of 2.5/1
Bailey........BAbip of .275 w/ an OPSa of .720 and a K/BB of 2.2/1
Owings......BAbip of .277 w/ an OPSa of .770 and a K/BB of 1.5/1

Chapman, Maloney, Wood, Lehr, and Leake....I wouldn't fathom to guess on their results, but I don't expect much from any of them this season, as their efforts should fall around the same as Harang's or Arroyo's.

Our best pitchers right now...not projections:

1. Bailey
2. Cueto
3. Arroyo
4. Harang
5. Chapman
6. Owings
7. Wood
8. Maloney
9. Leake
10. Lehr

BLEEDS
03-28-2010, 11:17 AM
I guess not.

Seriously, he's, by far, the weakest link on the team, if only because he's likely to give us 33 starts similar to a #4 or #5 pitcher.


If Harang is the weakest link in our pitching staff this year, we're going to have an AWESOME year.



I'd rather have Maloney or Owings giving us 33 starts over Harang.


That's absurd.



Harang never lost his ability to pitch. His problem is that he thinks he's a lot better than he actually is and continues to try to get stuff by hitters in the middle of the strike zone, where no pitcher should be placing their pitches.

If Harang can quit serving up meaty pitches.....be willing to walk a few more batters by staying out on the edges of the strike zone, and outside of those edges a few more times, he could get back to being a decent pitcher. But, I don't see that in his makeup. I don't see him willing to change and make that adjustment.

The baseball world has caught up to Aaron Harang, and Harang just doesn't get people out anymore when he needs to, and is more apt to give up a run when he doesn't need to do so.

So, I don't see any reason why he won't pitch just as poorly (forget the ERA of 4.20, as he pitched much worse than that) as he has the last two seasons.

There's nothing anyone can do about it because you can't tell a veteran like him anything. Heck, he's going to be the Opening Day starter and he's our worst starter.

Pure Hogwash, and not backed by any statistics. His peripherals are a BIT in decline, but he's basically the same pitcher. Read tORG and see what folks like dougdirt have to say, you'll see the devil in the details. Bad Luck (BAPIP, run support).


I think his ERA will balance out this season, and be more indicative of how he's pitched the last two seasons. It should hover around 4.45 by the time August gets here.

The thing about an ERA of 4.45. If a pitcher is having that type of result, he's being replaced as an everyday starter. 85% of your everday starters will have ERA's under 4.40 while 50% of them will have ERA's under 3.60.

See above.

Our starting pitching isn't anywhere near as good as most people think.

It's the weakest part of the team. Our best pitchers are too inexperienced, and our most experienced pitchers are our worst ones.

Again, if you think our SP is weak, and our worst pitcher will have an ERA of around 4.2, then we are a lot better than most people think.

Which is it?


Harang's BAbip should be the worst among the starting pitchers.


Actually it shouldn't be, that's the point.
What reasons do you have for him having the worst BAPIP?



Estimates for 2010 on BAbip's:

Harang.......BAbip of .320 w/ an OPSa of .782 and a K/BB of 3/1
Arroyo........BAbip of .320 w/ an OPSa of .782 and a K/BB of 2/1
Cueto........BAbip of .285 w/ an OPSa of .760 and a K/BB of 2.5/1
Bailey........BAbip of .275 w/ an OPSa of .720 and a K/BB of 2.2/1
Owings......BAbip of .277 w/ an OPSa of .770 and a K/BB of 1.5/1



Again, BAPIP's are SUPPOSED to be equal for all, that's the idea, it's randomness after that.

"Estimating" Babips is an exercise in futility.



Our best pitchers right now...not projections:

1. Bailey
2. Cueto
3. Arroyo
4. Harang
5. Chapman
6. Owings
7. Wood
8. Maloney
9. Leake
10. Lehr

I thought you said Harang was our weakest link, by far. Now he's the 4th best?!?!?

It's so fun watching you contradict yourself. ;)

PEACE

-BLEEDS

BLEEDS
03-28-2010, 11:22 AM
Spring training isn't a great barometer for pretty much anything, though. Harang is still working on his mechanics, and there are always questions about whether a guy is only working on certain pitches. If, by mid-May, Harang is getting pounded, then I'll be concerned.

Exactly.

I expect we will get a good year out of Harang - he did improve his 2009 peripherals from 2008 in a number of areas - and he will be a good bargaining chip at the trade deadline, whether we are in it or not.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Kingspoint
03-28-2010, 04:42 PM
If Harang is the weakest link in our pitching staff this year, we're going to have an AWESOME year.


That's absurd.



Pure Hogwash, and not backed by any statistics. His peripherals are a BIT in decline, but he's basically the same pitcher. Read tORG and see what folks like dougdirt have to say, you'll see the devil in the details. Bad Luck (BAPIP, run support).



See above.


Again, if you think our SP is weak, and our worst pitcher will have an ERA of around 4.2, then we are a lot better than most people think.

Which is it?



Actually it shouldn't be, that's the point.
What reasons do you have for him having the worst BAPIP?



Again, BAPIP's are SUPPOSED to be equal for all, that's the idea, it's randomness after that.

"Estimating" Babips is an exercise in futility.



I thought you said Harang was our weakest link, by far. Now he's the 4th best?!?!?

It's so fun watching you contradict yourself. ;)

PEACE

-BLEEDS

I have him 4th because the pitchers below him won't get enough innings for it to matter. I went to ORG and dougdirt didn't have anything to say about how well he expects Harang to pitch this season. I was hoping you were going to give me some insight when you asked me to go look over there.

sivman17
03-28-2010, 04:46 PM
Our starting pitching isn't anywhere near as good as most people think.

You're joking, right? Did you watch any of the Reds season last year?

We had one guy bat over .300. The next closest batted .276. The SP is the one thing I am most excited about and least concerned about.

Gomes is going to be our LF, and Stubbs or Dicky will be our CF. Bruce is our RF. I'm not sure if any of these guys would be an everyday starter on the majority of teams in the league. I guarantee Harang, Cueto, Bronson, and Bailey would start in just about any rotation.

Griffey012
03-28-2010, 05:46 PM
Wait a second, this is the same Aaron Harang who has a 4.21 ERA, which was better than Cueto. He had the 2nd lowest ERA on the team behind Arroyo. He got the 3rd fewest runs a game in the league when he was pitching at 4.93.

Micah Owings had a 5.34 ERA and had a better win loss record. Harang is having absolute brutal luck and run support from his team. And after a while of getting 1 and 2 runs a game during a lot of starts it wears mentally on a pitcher and wears them out. Harang will have an ERA below 5 and most likely below 4.50. He is not the same cy young contender he once was, but will be a solid innings eater in our rotation like he always is.

Why is everyone flipping out about Harang?

Kingspoint
03-28-2010, 11:32 PM
You're joking, right? Did you watch any of the Reds season last year?

We had one guy bat over .300. The next closest batted .276. The SP is the one thing I am most excited about and least concerned about.

Gomes is going to be our LF, and Stubbs or Dicky will be our CF. Bruce is our RF. I'm not sure if any of these guys would be an everyday starter on the majority of teams in the league. I guarantee Harang, Cueto, Bronson, and Bailey would start in just about any rotation.

No, I'm not joking. There's are good reasons, and they aren't all financial, why we haven't been able to trade Harang or Arroyo over the last year-and-a-half.

Our Offense is going to be very improved over last season. Our bullpen was elite last year and will be elite again. Our starters were weak (bottom third of the league) last year, and will only be slightly improved this season. I can't see the starters finishing in the top-half of the league (top-6 teams) (among starters) this season.

It's just an opinion. You can have yours and I can have mine. We'll have improved Defense, though, and that alone could vault the starters to #9 or #8 among starters. If I had to give a number to where they'll finish the year, I'll say #8 or #9....smack dab in the middle. I'm looking at 90 wins by the team this season. Our improved Offense is going to reduce a lot of the losses the starters would have had with last year's Offense (where the starter will leave the game behind, but the Offense will come back to tie or take the lead) and give them more wins than they would have had than last year's Offense.

The Starters ranked 11th in "average Game Score".

Game Score is a metric devised by Bill James to determine the strength of a pitcher in any particular baseball game. To determine a starting pitcher's game score:

Start with 50 points.
Add 1 point for each out recorded, so 3 points for every complete inning pitched.
Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th.
Add 1 point for each strikeout.
Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed.
Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed.
Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed.
Subtract 1 point for each walk.


The Top-5 Teams' Starters in Average Game Score last year were SFG, ATL, LAD, STL, CHI.

The Bot-5 Teams' Starters in Average Games Score last year were MIL, WSH, NYM, HOU, PIT.

While I think 11th is not good when there are 16 teams, I think that the improvements of Bailey, Cueto, and our 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th Starters will vault us from 11th to 7th or 8th in Average Game Scores. Harang can't pitch any worse than he has the last two seasons. Arroyo can pitch much worse than he did last year, and should pitch worse in some degree.

To make you feel better that makes only 1 Starting Pitcher who'll pitch worse than last season (Arroyo), 3 (counting the cumulative 5-8, 9, etc as just 1) pitchers who'l improve, and 1 pitcher (Harang) who'll pitch the same. That makes for quite an increase, but still only places us in the upper middle teams (6th through 9th). That's good enough to get us to 90 wins with our bullpen, Defense, and improved Offense.

For curiosity, here are the AVG GS, their Highest and Lowest GS's of the Starters last season:

Harang-------51....90....12
Arroyo-------52....85.....0
Owings-------43....67....16
Bailey--------49....77....10
Cueto--------50....82.....4
Volquez------53....85....29
Lehr---------45....82....24
Wells--------49....70....26
Maloney-----49....61....36

By those numbers, Harang was the 3rd best pitcher last year, and I'd agree with that. I think Bailey's number of 49 will improve to 52, Cueto's number of 50 will improve to 52, Arroyo's number of 52 will reduce to 50, Owings number of 43 will improve to 48 (so, yes, it'd be better to have Harang over Owings...I'll take that back), and that Harang's number of 51 will reduce to 50,....making Harang the team's 4th best starter in 2010 of the "big 4", which is what I've said all along. He'll go from 3rd best last year to 4th best this year.

sivman17
03-29-2010, 01:11 AM
No, I'm not joking. There's are good reasons, and they aren't all financial, why we haven't been able to trade Harang or Arroyo over the last year-and-a-half.

Our Offense is going to be very improved over last season. Our bullpen was elite last year and will be elite again. Our starters were weak (bottom third of the league) last year, and will only be slightly improved this season. I can't see the starters finishing in the top-half of the league (top-6 teams) (among starters) this season.

It's just an opinion. You can have yours and I can have mine. We'll have improved Defense, though, and that alone could vault the starters to #9 or #8 among starters. If I had to give a number to where they'll finish the year, I'll say #8 or #9....smack dab in the middle. I'm looking at 90 wins by the team this season. Our improved Offense is going to reduce a lot of the losses the starters would have had with last year's Offense (where the starter will leave the game behind, but the Offense will come back to tie or take the lead) and give them more wins than they would have had than last year's Offense.

The Starters ranked 11th in "average Game Score".

Game Score is a metric devised by Bill James to determine the strength of a pitcher in any particular baseball game. To determine a starting pitcher's game score:

Start with 50 points.
Add 1 point for each out recorded, so 3 points for every complete inning pitched.
Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th.
Add 1 point for each strikeout.
Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed.
Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed.
Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed.
Subtract 1 point for each walk.


The Top-5 Teams' Starters in Average Game Score last year were SFG, ATL, LAD, STL, CHI.

The Bot-5 Teams' Starters in Average Games Score last year were MIL, WSH, NYM, HOU, PIT.

While I think 11th is not good when there are 16 teams, I think that the improvements of Bailey, Cueto, and our 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th Starters will vault us from 11th to 7th or 8th in Average Game Scores. Harang can't pitch any worse than he has the last two seasons. Arroyo can pitch much worse than he did last year, and should pitch worse in some degree.

To make you feel better that makes only 1 Starting Pitcher who'll pitch worse than last season (Arroyo), 3 (counting the cumulative 5-8, 9, etc as just 1) pitchers who'l improve, and 1 pitcher (Harang) who'll pitch the same. That makes for quite an increase, but still only places us in the upper middle teams (6th through 9th). That's good enough to get us to 90 wins with our bullpen, Defense, and improved Offense.

For curiosity, here are the AVG GS, their Highest and Lowest GS's of the Starters last season:

Harang-------51....90....12
Arroyo-------52....85.....0
Owings-------43....67....16
Bailey--------49....77....10
Cueto--------50....82.....4
Volquez------53....85....29
Lehr---------45....82....24
Wells--------49....70....26
Maloney-----49....61....36

By those numbers, Harang was the 3rd best pitcher last year, and I'd agree with that. I think Bailey's number of 49 will improve to 52, Cueto's number of 50 will improve to 52, Arroyo's number of 52 will reduce to 50, Owings number of 43 will improve to 48 (so, yes, it'd be better to have Harang over Owings...I'll take that back), and that Harang's number of 51 will reduce to 50,....making Harang the team's 4th best starter in 2010 of the "big 4", which is what I've said all along. He'll go from 3rd best last year to 4th best this year.

What is the deal with all these made up statistics? Wtf is Game Score? Whatever happened to just looking at normal, real statistics like ERA, IP, Wins, Losses, and Ks?

Reds finished 7th in the NL last year in ERA. Considering we won 78 games, I'd say ranking in the top half of the league in ERA is a good sign. We finished 4th in the NL in complete games (with 6) and tied for second in shutouts (with 12). The ERA by our starters ranked 9th.

Now, let's look at our offense. The Reds ranked 14th in the NL (29th in MLB) in batting average, 11th in the NL in slugging percentage.

Our starting pitching will only improve from last year. Our offense can only improve from what they did last year. But I will say it again that our SP is the least of our concerns. We need to hit the ball.

jredmo2
03-29-2010, 09:56 AM
What is the deal with all these made up statistics? Wtf is Game Score? Whatever happened to just looking at normal, real statistics like ERA, IP, Wins, Losses, and Ks?

Reds finished 7th in the NL last year in ERA. Considering we won 78 games, I'd say ranking in the top half of the league in ERA is a good sign. We finished 4th in the NL in complete games (with 6) and tied for second in shutouts (with 12). The ERA by our starters ranked 9th.

Now, let's look at our offense. The Reds ranked 14th in the NL (29th in MLB) in batting average, 11th in the NL in slugging percentage.

Our starting pitching will only improve from last year. Our offense can only improve from what they did last year. But I will say it again that our SP is the least of our concerns. We need to hit the ball.

ERA is fine. But blaming Harang for his W/L is one of the best examples of why W/L is a bogus statistic. He's the classic example of a pitcher not getting run support, not really his fault.

Harang was pretty unlucky last year -- just look at his BABIP. He's not the same pitcher that led the league in strikeouts, I'll give you that, but I have no problem with his spot in the rotation. Cueto and Bailey, IMO, are the pitchers to really watch closely. I think people here are kind of assuming they're going to be great this year, but that seems pretty unlikely to me. Though I'd love that to happen, my instinct tells me that Harang will probably post a better ERA than either of them this year.

sivman17
03-29-2010, 10:37 AM
ERA is fine. But blaming Harang for his W/L is one of the best examples of why W/L is a bogus statistic. He's the classic example of a pitcher not getting run support, not really his fault.

Harang was pretty unlucky last year -- just look at his BABIP. He's not the same pitcher that led the league in strikeouts, I'll give you that, but I have no problem with his spot in the rotation. Cueto and Bailey, IMO, are the pitchers to really watch closely. I think people here are kind of assuming they're going to be great this year, but that seems pretty unlikely to me. Though I'd love that to happen, my instinct tells me that Harang will probably post a better ERA than either of them this year.

I totally agree. Yeah, Harang isn't the same pitcher from a couple years back, but he is still effective. And we have up and coming arms but as of right now I think having Harang in the rotation is our best bet. I will also agree that W/L don't mean that much. He never gets run support. I think he will do fine this year.

BLEEDS
03-29-2010, 01:23 PM
I went to ORG and dougdirt didn't have anything to say about how well he expects Harang to pitch this season. I was hoping you were going to give me some insight when you asked me to go look over there.

Okay so it was RMR, and nate moreso than dougdirt, whatever. There is a ton of statistical analysis and discussion in that thread that points to a SMALL decline in peripherals, but an even worse case of Bad Luck - BAPIP and Run Support.

We all know he took a major beating, courtesy of DUHsty, when they trotted him out for that extra inning affair in SD. It affected his mechanics, and he adjusted, shortening up his stride, messing him up worse - and taking a lot off of his slider. In 2009 he improved his numbers, and he's been working on his mechanics this off-season to get back to form. ALL of this points to a trend of him getting back on track - and his BAPIP and Run Support can't POSSIBLY get any worse, so to suddenly say he's lost it and is worrisome is Chicken-littleish.

His ST has been working on hitting spots, not trying to strike folks out. It's also a terrible change of venue for him to work on off-speed stuff because of AZ and it's notorious inability to support that.

Let's wait until June to see how Harang is doing this year. Sure, he may still suddenly fall off the face of the planet for no apparent reason, and against all statistical analysis, that happens to everyone, but the trend and numbers don't say it is likely.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Kingspoint
03-29-2010, 04:40 PM
Wtf is Game Score?

I told you what it was.

If you want to know more, than do the research. It may be hard to find the full explanation. You may only be able to find an abbreviated explanation that will only give you a partial understanding of what it means.

Bill James wrote about 20 pages of explanation about it 35 years ago after analyzing every pitcher who ever pitched in the Major Leagues up to that point.

Is it supposed to be 100% accurate or "the best" way to measure a pitcher? No. But, it's 10 times better than looking at a starting pitcher's ERA.

Kingspoint
03-29-2010, 04:47 PM
ERA is fine. But blaming Harang for his W/L is one of the best examples of why W/L is a bogus statistic. He's the classic example of a pitcher not getting run support, not really his fault.

Harang was pretty unlucky last year -- just look at his BABIP. He's not the same pitcher that led the league in strikeouts, I'll give you that, but I have no problem with his spot in the rotation. Cueto and Bailey, IMO, are the pitchers to really watch closely. I think people here are kind of assuming they're going to be great this year, but that seems pretty unlikely to me. Though I'd love that to happen, my instinct tells me that Harang will probably post a better ERA than either of them this year.


I have never blamed a pitcher for his win/loss. I don't discuss win/loss when it comes to a single season and a pitcher. I don't care what a pitcher's win/loss is ever. Trying to associate a win/loss total to a pitcher's particular season is a futile effort. It's impossible.

There are only a handful of pitchers who "control" their win/loss totals in a single season, as they "pitch to the conditions of the individual game". Jack Morris is the perfect example of that.

Harang was unlucky each of the last two years as far as run support. But, no amount of run support would have helped Aaron Harang the last two seasons. He's pitched like crap each of the last two years. There's no defending a pitcher who gives up a horrible OPS-against of .797 and .838 each of the last two years. That's all on Harang.

Kingspoint
03-29-2010, 04:57 PM
Now, let's look at our offense. The Reds ranked 14th in the NL (29th in MLB) in batting average, 11th in the NL in slugging percentage.



Yes. Let's look at the Offense. While the Starters were in the game, the REDS ranked 6th (out of 16 teams) in the NL in Run Support at 4.6 runs per 27 outs.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2009-starter-pitching.shtml

Kingspoint
03-29-2010, 05:10 PM
Let's wait until June to see how Harang is doing this year. Sure, he may still suddenly fall off the face of the planet for no apparent reason, and against all statistical analysis, that happens to everyone, but the trend and numbers don't say it is likely.



As I've said a dozen times, Harang has never lost his ability to get players out. His stuff is just as good as it was 5 years ago. It's his mental approach that's all out of whack. The San Diego thing is in the past now. It was in the past last year. He got a pass in 2008. But, not last year. There was nothing wrong with him physically last year. The greatest hope we have with Harang is that we have a new Pitching Coach in Bryan Price. It's very possible that Bryan Price can turn Harang around and get him back to where he's surrendering an opposing OPS of .750 or less. .750 still sucks, but it'd be a huge improvement over what he's done over the last two seasons.

With Harang, it's not about giving up the hits, it's that the hits he gives up are doubles, triples and homeruns. He doesn't give up cheap hits. He gives up rockets. Bryan Price can change that. It's just as you say....working on pitching on the outside of the strike zone and staying away from juicy pitches and "favorite pitches of batters", like serving up a nice fat curve-ball to a curve-ball hitter, or throwing a high-inside pitch to someone who likes high-inside pitches. Just being "smarter". Harang still has the stuff to be the ACE of this staff. If he can learn from Bryan Price how to correct his mistakes this season, then we will have a very good starting staff led by Aaron Harang instead of being dragged down by Aaron Harang like it has been the last two seasons.

This whole season rests on how well Aaron Harang does.

If Harang gets that OPS-against in the .700-.730 area, then these REDS win 92-94 games.

If Harang gets that OPS-against in the .760-.790 area, then these REDS win 82-84 games.

I haven't given up on Harang or anything like that.

Just that there are "chances" on every way he performs.

Because of the respect I have for Bryan Price, I think there's about a 25% chance that Harang reaches that OPS-against of .700-730. But, it's still going to be on Harang to get it done, therefore, I give him about a 50% chance that he'll have an OPS-against of .760-.790. About a 5 % chance that he'll have an OPS-against over .790 and 20% chance that he'll have an OPS-against of .730-.760.

Kingspoint
03-29-2010, 05:11 PM
If Harang gets that OPS-against in the .700-.730 area, then these REDS win 92-94 games.

If Harang gets that OPS-against in the .760-.790 area, then these REDS win 82-84 games.

If you want to save a quote for the end of the season, save that one.

BLEEDS
03-29-2010, 05:13 PM
Yes. Let's look at the Offense. While the Starters were in the game, the REDS ranked 6th (out of 16 teams) in the NL in Run Support at 4.6 runs per 27 outs.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2009-starter-pitching.shtml

What kind of crazy stat is that?!? WHO CARES!

Does that change the fact that the end-result, for W-L affecting offense, is the same?

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Kingspoint
03-29-2010, 05:17 PM
What kind of crazy stat is that?!? WHO CARES!



The guy was trying to insinuate that our starters didn't get run support last season, when in actuality our starters got more run support than the starters of 10 other National League teams.

sivman17
03-29-2010, 05:26 PM
I told you what it was.

If you want to know more, than do the research. It may be hard to find the full explanation. You may only be able to find an abbreviated explanation that will only give you a partial understanding of what it means.

Bill James wrote about 20 pages of explanation about it 35 years ago after analyzing every pitcher who ever pitched in the Major Leagues up to that point.

Is it supposed to be 100% accurate or "the best" way to measure a pitcher? No. But, it's 10 times better than looking at a starting pitcher's ERA.

I understand what Game Score is. I read your description. I guess I meant to say, "Who cares about Game Score?" If it was really that good of a statistic you would be hearing about it all the time. I have never heard of it.


The guy was trying to insinuate that our starters didn't get run support last season, when in actuality our starters got more run support than the starters of 10 other National League teams.

Actually, I was not INSINUATING that our starters didn't get run support, I was SAYING that our offense ranked next to last in all of baseball. No matter how you slice it, our offense was our number 1 problem last year. We won 78 games while having the 2nd worst offense in baseball.

I am a big stats guy. I love looking and analyzing stats, but every year I hear about 5 new statistics that I feel like people made up only because they had nothing better to do. You can make any team/player look good or bad by tweaking enough numbers and making up new stats.

All I'm saying is that we need better offense than last year.

BLEEDS
03-29-2010, 05:43 PM
The guy was trying to insinuate that our starters didn't get run support last season, when in actuality our starters got more run support than the starters of 10 other National League teams.

Does it matter if you get run support for 4-5 innings, then get zero from 5-9? Surely a lot of close games becomes losses/no decisions if you don't score after the starter leaves right?

If we were on pace for 4.6 per 27 outs from innings 1-5 (just using for rounding), my quick math says we averaged less than 3.5 runs per 27 outs from innings 6-9. PUTRID!!!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Griffey012
03-29-2010, 05:55 PM
I told you what it was.

If you want to know more, than do the research. It may be hard to find the full explanation. You may only be able to find an abbreviated explanation that will only give you a partial understanding of what it means.

Bill James wrote about 20 pages of explanation about it 35 years ago after analyzing every pitcher who ever pitched in the Major Leagues up to that point.

Is it supposed to be 100% accurate or "the best" way to measure a pitcher? No. But, it's 10 times better than looking at a starting pitcher's ERA.

I think Game Score has its pros and cons, and like any metric that is not 100% perfect it needs to be taken with a grain of salt. When I am examining pitchers I look at the basics like ERA, W-L, WHIP, BB, K's etc, but also like to look at BABIP, Run Support, game scores, etc.

The one thing that none of the quantified metrics can explain is how a pitcher responds to adversity. This is the thing that has stood out most to me about Harang. It really seems like he is just running out their going through the motions collecting his paycheck. Last year anytime we would get some runs for him it seemed like he turned right back around and gave them back up +1 more. He has been horrid the last 2 seasons about limiting damage during jams, or getting a big K. These are the kind of things that separate #2 starters from #4 starters. In most cases the 2's and 4's have pretty similar stuff, but the 4's struggle to limit damage and step up and hold the opponents when the offense isnt bringing it.

In 06 and 07 Harang was very good at this. In 08 and 09, Harang was terrible at this. Does it have something to do with his pay raising quite a bit? It could since he has nothing to prove now. I hope it was just an anomaly and hopefully he gets his "edge" back.

Kingspoint
03-29-2010, 06:56 PM
I think Game Score has its pros and cons, and like any metric that is not 100% perfect it needs to be taken with a grain of salt. When I am examining pitchers I look at the basics like ERA, W-L, WHIP, BB, K's etc, but also like to look at BABIP, Run Support, game scores, etc.

The one thing that none of the quantified metrics can explain is how a pitcher responds to adversity. This is the thing that has stood out most to me about Harang. It really seems like he is just running out their going through the motions collecting his paycheck. Last year anytime we would get some runs for him it seemed like he turned right back around and gave them back up +1 more. He has been horrid the last 2 seasons about limiting damage during jams, or getting a big K. These are the kind of things that separate #2 starters from #4 starters. In most cases the 2's and 4's have pretty similar stuff, but the 4's struggle to limit damage and step up and hold the opponents when the offense isnt bringing it.

In 06 and 07 Harang was very good at this. In 08 and 09, Harang was terrible at this. Does it have something to do with his pay raising quite a bit? It could since he has nothing to prove now. I hope it was just an anomaly and hopefully he gets his "edge" back.

I agree with all of that.

The game score is just another way to look at things. One thing it does measure is when a pitcher is dominating or being dominated, the game score reflects it. A dominating pitcher will get you a score in the 80's. A pitcher being dominated will get a score in the 30's and below. You don't get that from a lot of other stats. We now have a pitcher in Aroldis Chapman who has the capability to get a lot of game scores in the 90's. We only had one of those in 162 chances last year, when Harang hit 90 once. Though it won't happen this year with Chapman, as a pitcher needs to be throwing complete games to get to 90 and Chapman won't be doing that.

49 was an average game score by a REDS' starter last season. I think that average will move to 51 this season (51 got you 6th-8th in the NL last season). Ways to get a 51:

7ip, 6h, 3r, 3er, 2bb, 6k = 51

6.1ip, 6h, 2r, 2er, 0bb, 2k = 51

7.2ip, 8h, 3r, 3er, 3bb, 9k = 51

Those performances all have different WHIP's, different ERA's, different K/BB's, different BAbip's, but the results are all equal when it comes to a "starter's performance" when measured by Game Score.

Kingspoint
03-29-2010, 07:13 PM
Does it have something to do with his pay raising quite a bit? It could since he has nothing to prove now. I hope it was just an anomaly and hopefully he gets his "edge" back.

This never gets brought up with Harang or Arroyo. But, you've got to think collecting $12M per year would change you somewhat. If anything, you may be picking up the stock market report before you pick up the sports page. How one can not have finances on one's mind quite often would seem to be impossible.

Griffey012
03-29-2010, 07:48 PM
This never gets brought up with Harang or Arroyo. But, you've got to think collecting $12M per year would change you somewhat. If anything, you may be picking up the stock market report before you pick up the sports page. How one can not have finances on one's mind quite often would seem to be impossible.

Arroyo has seemingly been pretty much the same pitcher this whole time, his '06 year was one that he will never repeat and I think most everyone knew that except management at the time. He also pitches with emotion and you can tell he is out there with a win on his mind. With Harang it is really hard to tell.

Kingspoint
03-30-2010, 05:17 PM
Another poor outing for Harang today.

Same old story....2-RBI Double, 3-Run Homerun. Gives up the extra-base hits at the wrong time.

He only has one more start to figure this out before he begins giving the REDS poor performances every 5th day that count in the standings.

If he was 23 years old, he'd be sent down to AAA.

C'mon, Aaron. Pull it together!

sivman17
03-30-2010, 06:09 PM
Harang's Spring Training (ST) and Regular Season (RS) Stats:

2010: ST: 11.00 ERA, 9.0 IP; RS: ?
2009: ST: 4.56 ERA, 25.2 IP; RS: 4.21 ERA
2008: ST: 3.60 ERA, 10.0 IP; RS: 4.78 ERA
2007: ST: 6.97 ERA, 20.1 IP; RS: 3.73 ERA
2006: ST: 2.84 ERA, 19.0 IP; RS: 3.76 ERA
2005: ST: 3.23 ERA, 30.2 IP; RS: 3.83 ERA

What's that tell me? Not a whole lot, other than you can't rely a whole heck of a lot on spring training numbers. His best year was in 2007 and he had a horrible spring training. There is a slight correlation, but considering he pitches so few innings in ST, who knows what he will do in the regular season?

But yes, hopefully he does improve from what he is doing now.

texasdave
03-30-2010, 06:30 PM
This was the final tuneup for Harang in Spring Training, I believe. The season starts in earnest in one week so I don't know where he could sneak another start in. Aaron is a veteran so let's hope he knows what he has to do to get ready.

Griffey012
03-30-2010, 07:22 PM
Don't have the most confident feeling for my first ever Reds opening day experience.

texasdave
03-30-2010, 07:46 PM
If it makes you feel any better, Chris Carpenter's Spring ERA is 5.40. =)

defender
03-30-2010, 07:59 PM
I think it is rational to be concerned about Harang. I am not expecting him to have a poor year, but I am worried.

sivman17
03-30-2010, 08:12 PM
Pujols only went 2 for 8 against Harang last year... so that's a small victory for Harang I would say. O for 4 at GABP.

Kingspoint
03-30-2010, 09:08 PM
He only has one more start to figure this out before he begins giving the REDS poor performances every 5th day that count in the standings.



My mistake.

That was his last chance to get things right before he starts creating losing opportunities for the REDS.

BLEEDS
03-31-2010, 09:13 AM
I don't think Arizona is a good venue for Harang. He only has a mediocre fastball. He lives off his slider. ALL off-speed pitches in Arizona suffer tremendously, and all solidy hit fastballs usually carry over the fences.

If you want to be worried about something this Spring - worry about our horrid offense, this is SUPPOSED to be an offensive haven here in Arizona.

Harang is the least of my worries. Sure he hasn't looked great, but something tells me he'll have a solid season.
200+ IP, ERA under 4.4, and will have our team in the position to win games IFF our offense shows up - for NINE innings.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

BLEEDS
03-31-2010, 09:22 AM
Just a couple quotes for you Chicken-littles:

IIRC, Price spotted a flaw in Harang's delivery and made some changes. I suspect that implementing the changes has been the focus of his spring. I would not expect instant success. In 14.2 IP he has 15K's and 5BB's. I find that encouraging.

From John Fay:
Quote:
Aaron Harang declared himself ready for his Opening Day start, despite a 9.88 spring ERA.
“Yeah,” Harang said. “I feel great. This is the best I’ve in spring training. The outcome is not what you want and expect. But it doesn’t count. This is about getting really for the long haul of the season.”
follow the link for more:
http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/201...-i-feel-great/

From C. Trent:
Quote:
He's confident he's done that to this point, and so is Reds manager Dusty Baker.
"Aaron threw the ball well, he was at 93-94 mph, the velocity was good and he just made one mistake on the slider to big Blanks and a fastball in on Hairston, other than that he threw the ball excellent, that's what we want to see," Baker said. "I look beyond (the results), he's throwing the ball with better velocity and coming inside, using his legs." http://cnati.com/spring-training-201...ng-day-001660/


SO, he's working on an adjustment. His slider is off (in the AZ heat/air). His fastball is on. He's using his legs. He feels great, better than ever in ST.
He's got a 3/1 K/BB, and over a 9 K/9 innings.

I'd say he's just fine, and ready for opening day.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Kingspoint
03-31-2010, 04:36 PM
IIRC, Price spotted a flaw in Harang's delivery and made some changes. I suspect that implementing the changes has been the focus of his spring. I would not expect instant success. In 14.2 IP he has 15K's and 5BB's. I find that encouraging.



That's what I was hoping for.

Kingspoint
03-31-2010, 06:09 PM
I'm not worried about our offense at all. When we get our best 8 out there every day, they'll produce.

Our bench looks strong with Nix, Dickerson, Janish, (sutton or miles), and Hanigan.

Kingspoint
04-24-2010, 04:54 AM
Other than the fact that he's spent the last two seasons giving up gopher ball after gopher ball making putting him among the bottom 20% of starting pitchers in the National League each of the past two seasons?


I guess not.

Seriously, he's, by far, the weakest link on the team, if only because he's likely to give us 33 starts similar to a #4 or #5 pitcher.

I'd rather have Maloney or Owings giving us 33 starts over Harang.

Harang never lost his ability to pitch. His problem is that he thinks he's a lot better than he actually is and continues to try to get stuff by hitters in the middle of the strike zone, where no pitcher should be placing their pitches.

If Harang can quit serving up meaty pitches.....be willing to walk a few more batters by staying out on the edges of the strike zone, and outside of those edges a few more times, he could get back to being a decent pitcher. But, I don't see that in his makeup. I don't see him willing to change and make that adjustment.

The baseball world has caught up to Aaron Harang, and Harang just doesn't get people out anymore when he needs to, and is more apt to give up a run when he doesn't need to do so.

So, I don't see any reason why he won't pitch just as poorly (forget the ERA of 4.20, as he pitched much worse than that) as he has the last two seasons.

There's nothing anyone can do about it because you can't tell a veteran like him anything. Heck, he's going to be the Opening Day starter and he's our worst starter.

TOP

Kingspoint
04-24-2010, 04:58 AM
No, I'm not joking. There are good reasons, and they aren't all financial, why we haven't been able to trade Harang or Arroyo over the last year-and-a-half.

Our Offense is going to be very improved over last season. Our bullpen was elite last year and will be elite again. Our starters were weak (bottom third of the league) last year, and will only be slightly improved this season. I can't see the starters finishing in the top-half of the league (top-6 teams) (among starters) this season.

It's just an opinion. You can have yours and I can have mine. We'll have improved Defense, though, and that alone could vault the starters to #9 or #8 among starters. If I had to give a number to where they'll finish the year, I'll say #8 or #9....smack dab in the middle. I'm looking at 90 wins by the team this season. Our improved Offense is going to reduce a lot of the losses the starters would have had with last year's Offense (where the starter will leave the game behind, but the Offense will come back to tie or take the lead) and give them more wins than they would have had than last year's Offense.

The Starters ranked 11th in "average Game Score".

Game Score is a metric devised by Bill James to determine the strength of a pitcher in any particular baseball game. To determine a starting pitcher's game score:

Start with 50 points.
Add 1 point for each out recorded, so 3 points for every complete inning pitched.
Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th.
Add 1 point for each strikeout.
Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed.
Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed.
Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed.
Subtract 1 point for each walk.


The Top-5 Teams' Starters in Average Game Score last year were SFG, ATL, LAD, STL, CHI.

The Bot-5 Teams' Starters in Average Games Score last year were MIL, WSH, NYM, HOU, PIT.

While I think 11th is not good when there are 16 teams, I think that the improvements of Bailey, Cueto, and our 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th Starters will vault us from 11th to 7th or 8th in Average Game Scores. Harang can't pitch any worse than he has the last two seasons. Arroyo can pitch much worse than he did last year, and should pitch worse in some degree.

To make you feel better that makes only 1 Starting Pitcher who'll pitch worse than last season (Arroyo), 3 (counting the cumulative 5-8, 9, etc as just 1) pitchers who'l improve, and 1 pitcher (Harang) who'll pitch the same. That makes for quite an increase, but still only places us in the upper middle teams (6th through 9th). That's good enough to get us to 90 wins with our bullpen, Defense, and improved Offense.

For curiosity, here are the AVG GS, their Highest and Lowest GS's of the Starters last season:

Harang-------51....90....12
Arroyo-------52....85.....0
Owings-------43....67....16
Bailey--------49....77....10
Cueto--------50....82.....4
Volquez------53....85....29
Lehr---------45....82....24
Wells--------49....70....26
Maloney-----49....61....36

By those numbers, Harang was the 3rd best pitcher last year, and I'd agree with that. I think Bailey's number of 49 will improve to 52, Cueto's number of 50 will improve to 52, Arroyo's number of 52 will reduce to 50, Owings number of 43 will improve to 48 (so, yes, it'd be better to have Harang over Owings...I'll take that back), and that Harang's number of 51 will reduce to 50,....making Harang the team's 4th best starter in 2010 of the "big 4", which is what I've said all along. He'll go from 3rd best last year to 4th best this year.



Thought I'd repost this now that the season is one-tenth over already.

Kingspoint
04-24-2010, 05:15 AM
The "starters" Average Game Score for the season is at "44", 14th out of 16 teams. (not counting Friday, April 22nd game of Arroyo (a minus-7), which might drop us to 15th behind Washington and only ahead of Pittsburgh.

Harang.....36
Arroyo......54 (not counting last night's game, which drops his AGS for the season to a putrid "26")
Bailey.......36
Leake.......51
Cueto.......44

National League Average is 50 right now.

Our Top-3 AGS performances of the season so far have been Arroyo's 73 (17 NL pitchers have had a higher AGS), Harang's 64 (37 NL pitchers have had better), and Leake's 60 (52 have had better). 73 NL pitchers have had better than Bailey's best of 44, and 63 NL pitchers have had higher AGS's than Cueto's best of 54.

Bailey and Cueto are better than this. They need to step it up.

BLEEDS
04-28-2010, 04:57 PM
So

no props for his game last night after his "adjustments" with Price?

typical...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

malcontent
04-28-2010, 05:03 PM
So

no props for his game last night after his "adjustments" with Price?

typical...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Now that Hell has frozen over, the more skeptical among us are simply waiting for the thaw.

:cool:

Kingspoint
04-28-2010, 08:11 PM
So

no props for his game last night after his "adjustments" with Price?

typical...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Check out the "game thread". I gave him props all night. I've never stopped giving him props "that he has the potential to get things straightened out if he can only get his head on straight". He got his head on straight last night.

Kingspoint
04-28-2010, 08:12 PM
So

no props for his game last night after his "adjustments" with Price?

typical...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

It was great to see Harang step up and pitch a "decent" game. A WHIP of 1.500 and an ERA of 3.33 for one day, is a huge improvement for him.

kfm
05-08-2010, 10:44 PM
How good is it to see Harang pitching the way he has his last three starts. This is huge for the Reds, if Harang is truly back to his old self. Just when fans and some of the wlw geniuses were talking about how smart Lou Pinella was for sticking Big Z into the bullpen and how Dusty was a fool for not doing the same Harang at least for 3 straight starts has rewarded Dusty for his faith in him. Let's hope this continues because Harang pitching well for this team is HUGE!

Griffey012
05-08-2010, 11:00 PM
How good is it to see Harang pitching the way he has his last three starts. This is huge for the Reds, if Harang is truly back to his old self. Just when fans and some of the wlw geniuses were talking about how smart Lou Pinella was for sticking Big Z into the bullpen and how Dusty was a fool for not doing the same Harang at least for 3 straight starts has rewarded Dusty for his faith in him. Let's hope this continues because Harang pitching well for this team is HUGE!

It is greaaaat! He had done it again HOU, STL, and CHI which are all division teams, and STL and CHI aren't bad offensively. The best part is today was a much needed victory cause we hand the ball to Leake tomorrow and hopefully take the series.

redsfan_12
05-08-2010, 11:05 PM
Agreed. This was a must win and we got it. Harang pitched a gem tonight against a solid Cubs lineup. No one Id rather have pitching a rubber game than Mr. Leake

RedLakerFan24
05-08-2010, 11:08 PM
i just picked him up on my Fantasy team and he did great

redsfan_12
05-08-2010, 11:19 PM
i just picked him up on my Fantasy team and he did great

thats a gutsy pick

arkimadee
05-08-2010, 11:40 PM
Gotta give props to Dusty for not giving up on him.

GIDP
05-08-2010, 11:46 PM
121 pitches. ouch.

Jefferson24
05-09-2010, 12:11 AM
121 pitches. ouch.

He will be fine just as long as Dusty avoids him in an extra inning game in the next week. I wouldn't be apposed to having him back next year if he keeps this up, but not at the price of picking up his option. Is there a way to get him back without picking up the option, maybe a new 2 year contract for 8m?

BEETTLEBUG
05-09-2010, 04:02 AM
I heard Marty say on radio tonight that their was a scout from Dodgers in park to watch Aaron did anybody else hear this?

sabometrics
05-09-2010, 04:12 AM
121 pitches. ouch.

Since when is 121 pitches something to scoff at for Harang? As long as he's pitching on his regular rest there's no reason he can't do this as far as I'm concerned.

Kingspoint
05-09-2010, 06:29 AM
Since when is 121 pitches something to scoff at for Harang? As long as he's pitching on his regular rest there's no reason he can't do this as far as I'm concerned.

He also had an extra day this week. Should be fine.

A Game Score of "60" yesterday. Three straight for him above 50, with a 60 to boot. That's not a coincidence. That's a trend.

Maldez
05-09-2010, 08:30 AM
I've been concerned about Harang ever since that fateful day in San Diego...

People who cling to "that fateful day in San Diego" as the catalyst of Aaron Harang's demise are the same people who are just positive NASA faked the moon landing and the Mafia assassinated JFK. Keep quiet about your goofy conspiracy theories and stop embarrassing yourselves.

GIDP
05-09-2010, 09:19 AM
Nasa faked Harangs pitch count.

gilpdawg
05-09-2010, 06:33 PM
Just when fans and some of the wlw geniuses were talking about how smart Lou Pinella was for sticking Big Z into the bullpen
I just noticed this so I'm late to the party, but did anybody with a brain actually like that move? Just because Zambrano started slow doesn't mean he wouldn't be one of their 5 best starters going forward, and that move reeked of desperation and making a move just for the sake of making a move.

texasdave
05-09-2010, 07:25 PM
I heard Marty say on radio tonight that their was a scout from Dodgers in park to watch Aaron did anybody else hear this?

I heard that mentioned on the air as well. Marty really didn't expound upon it at all.

muddie
05-09-2010, 08:01 PM
I heard that mentioned on the air as well. Marty really didn't expound upon it at all.

He mentioned on the tube that the Dodgers were looking for anyone, in so many words, that could help the staff. Apparently their scouts are everywhere looking for help. He speculated that LA may have an interest in Oswalt as Houston is in a free fall. Then the guys sort of backed off the speculation.

The Operator
05-09-2010, 08:13 PM
People who cling to "that fateful day in San Diego" as the catalyst of Aaron Harang's demise are the same people who are just positive NASA faked the moon landing and the Mafia assassinated JFK. Keep quiet about your goofy conspiracy theories and stop embarrassing yourselves.

Yes, certainly. Watching a guy's performance fall off a cliff after pitching 4 innings in relief and then coming back on 3 days rest after that, and claiming there is a correlation - is exactly the same as claiming that NASA faked the moon landing.

While you're busy telling other people to keep their opinion's to themselves, maybe you should take your own advice.

sivman17
05-09-2010, 08:29 PM
121 pitches. ouch.

What is everyone's obsession with keeping pitch counts? I don't understand it. It's not like each pitcher has a certain number of pitchers in a given year and once he surpasses that count in August or September he is done. There's no reason to "avoid putting him in an extra inning" next time out as someone else mentioned.

These guys are pitching once every five nights. 100-120 pitches is not that many. I really wish all these threads and discussions would end.

FlyerFanatic
05-09-2010, 09:00 PM
What is everyone's obsession with keeping pitch counts? I don't understand it. It's not like each pitcher has a certain number of pitchers in a given year and once he surpasses that count in August or September he is done. There's no reason to "avoid putting him in an extra inning" next time out as someone else mentioned.

These guys are pitching once every five nights. 100-120 pitches is not that many. I really wish all these threads and discussions would end.

i feel the same, but you might as well get used to it. with pitch counts at every level of baseball now, pitchers arms are basically conditioned to only throw about 100 pitches a game. if i'm not mistaken a lot of data suggest throwing over 100 pitches a lot leads to more injuries. just the way it is now a days. there are exceptions to every rule, but to much money being handed out to not pay attention to pitch counts now a days

GIDP
05-09-2010, 09:24 PM
Just because you cant understand pitch counts or care to research them doesnt make them any more likely to go away.

sivman17
05-09-2010, 10:25 PM
Just because you cant understand pitch counts or care to research them doesnt make them any more likely to go away.

Alright, smart guy. Here is some "research" for you.

Using the Basic Pitch Count Estimator (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_pitch_count_estimator), which is 3.3PA + 1.5SO + 2.2BB, here are Harang's estimated total pitches in a season and per game since 2004:

04: 2591 pitches; 93 pitches/game
05: 3220; 100
06: 3662; 102
07: 3517; 103
08: 2923; 97
09: 2586; 99
10: 653; 93

Obviously, some of his starts he is pitching much less than 100 and some he is pitching much more. In the long haul of a season he will average around 100 pitches/game. In my own opinion, talking about pitch counts, especially for a veteran without a history of any arm problems whatsoever, in May, is unnecessary. He knows what he can do and he's not going to hurt himself by throwing too much.

Griffey012
05-09-2010, 11:08 PM
He will be fine just as long as Dusty avoids him in an extra inning game in the next week. I wouldn't be apposed to having him back next year if he keeps this up, but not at the price of picking up his option. Is there a way to get him back without picking up the option, maybe a new 2 year contract for 8m?

Let's not overreact to a few solid performances and a good performance on Saturday. Just as we shouldn't overreact to a couple bad starts or below average starts by a pitcher. Let's not talk extension until August.

GIDP
05-09-2010, 11:29 PM
Alright, smart guy. Here is some "research" for you.

Using the Basic Pitch Count Estimator (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_pitch_count_estimator), which is 3.3PA + 1.5SO + 2.2BB, here are Harang's estimated total pitches in a season and per game since 2004:

04: 2591 pitches; 93 pitches/game
05: 3220; 100
06: 3662; 102
07: 3517; 103
08: 2923; 97
09: 2586; 99
10: 653; 93

Obviously, some of his starts he is pitching much less than 100 and some he is pitching much more. In the long haul of a season he will average around 100 pitches/game. In my own opinion, talking about pitch counts, especially for a veteran without a history of any arm problems whatsoever, in May, is unnecessary. He knows what he can do and he's not going to hurt himself by throwing too much.

He had an arm problem last year lol.

sivman17
05-10-2010, 12:00 AM
He had an arm problem last year lol.

Then you should probably just ignore what I have to say :beerme:

GIDP
05-10-2010, 12:06 AM
Then you should probably just ignore what I have to say :beerme:

The thing about pitch counts is that it gets to a point where high pitch counts in an inning cause more strain, and more pitches in a game can cause extra strain. if a guy is throwing 10 pitches an inning and isnt tired I dont care if he goes a little over but when you are throwing 20+ an inning I certainly think its somethign to worry about.

The pitches isnt the problem its the area of strain that causes the issues. A tired arm can throw off other things and compound an issue.

Most of the time 100 pitches is the safe point and there is a reason why the discussion has been discussed.

My only problem with the anti pitch count people is when they say "they didnt care about pitch counts back in the day". Which sounds good but you really have no idea how many guys had their arms screwed up before they even got to the point. Basically only the strong survived, where as now the strong flurish, and the weaker still get to contribute.

Maldez
05-10-2010, 07:19 AM
Yes, certainly. Watching a guy's performance fall off a cliff after pitching 4 innings in relief and then coming back on 3 days rest after that, and claiming there is a correlation - is exactly the same as claiming that NASA faked the moon landing.

While you're busy telling other people to keep their opinion's to themselves, maybe you should take your own advice.

You should familiarize yourself with the Scientific Method then see if your this popular theory holds water.

Caveman Techie
05-10-2010, 07:39 AM
He had an arm problem last year lol.

And the year before that also. So to say that Harang has never had any problems just means you weren't paying attention.

The Operator
05-10-2010, 10:13 AM
You should familiarize yourself with the Scientific Method then see if your this popular theory holds water.

Only if you break out a grammar book first. :cool:

I'm just saying it's not cool to tell people they should "keep their opinions to themselves" when there are perfectly good reasons why those people may have that opinion. Having an opinion that the SD relief appearance was detrimental to Aaron's performance is nowhere near being a "conspiracy theory" - it's just your way of making people who disagree with you feel stupid. And that's one of the weakest ways to try and win an argument.

Kingspoint
05-10-2010, 04:57 PM
Harang never had arm problems last year.

Quit making excuses for the guy.

The Operator
05-10-2010, 06:31 PM
Harang never had arm problems last year.

Quit making excuses for the guy.

Didn't I tell you I was done discussing this with you?

That's YOUR opinion. It's worth just as much as my opinion, which is ZERO.

So until you show me your Medical Degree, as well as proof that you either ARE Aaron Harang or have seen his medical records - your analysis of Harang's health has no more merit than mine does, regardless of how much confidence you state your opinions with. They're still opinions.

kfm
05-10-2010, 07:19 PM
I just noticed this so I'm late to the party, but did anybody with a brain actually like that move? Just because Zambrano started slow doesn't mean he wouldn't be one of their 5 best starters going forward, and that move reeked of desperation and making a move just for the sake of making a move.

I hated that move and still think it was a bad idea. I really don't want to comment on the "anyone with a brain" comment for fear that they might eventually catch on.

Kingspoint
05-10-2010, 08:03 PM
Didn't I tell you I was done discussing this with you?

That's YOUR opinion. It's worth just as much as my opinion, which is ZERO.

So until you show me your Medical Degree, as well as proof that you either ARE Aaron Harang or have seen his medical records - your analysis of Harang's health has no more merit than mine does, regardless of how much confidence you state your opinions with. They're still opinions.

Dude...it's not my "analysis" or opinion. It's Harang's own words. He said himself that he wasn't injured. Why would he lie? He's not playing for a contract or anything. There's no more proof needed than that. To deny that is like saying 2 + 2 = 57. When you say things like that, it's not "opinion" by you, it's just jibberish. You're basing your jibberish as "opinion" by saying that Harang is a liar.

And, as long as people keep bringing up that he was "possibly" injured, or that he "was" injured, I'm going to keep calling BS, using Harang's own words as proof. I'm not going to let people repeat jibberish on public forums so that it can be repeated enough to make it true. It has to be refuted every time it's brought up or it becomes "fact by repetition".

The Operator
05-10-2010, 08:12 PM
Are you SERIOUSLY telling me that every player in the history of Major League Baseball who has ever said they weren't injured - was telling the truth?

You're just being obtuse at this point.

And for the record, Harang DID spend time in 2008 on the DL with a strained forearm - considering he's been on the DL because a of a strained forearm before, and the fact that his performance declined sharply after an abusive relief stint, AND his recent run of high velocity / no command outings - YES, THOSE ARE SIGNS OF AN ARM INJURY.

Nowhere did I ever say for sure he was injured. I said I suspected he might have been. He still could be. He also might not be, and he may not have ever really been.

But taking Aaron Harang's words for it is foolish. Most pitcher won't admit they are hurt until their arm is hanging by a thread. If you've followed baseball much at all, you should know that.

But if coming on here and posting as if every one of your opinions is gospel makes you feel better - hey, that's cool. Maybe I'll make use of the ignore button soon.

Kingspoint
05-10-2010, 08:14 PM
Are you SERIOUSLY telling me that every player in the history of Major League Baseball who has ever said they weren't injured - was telling the truth?

You're just being obtuse at this point.

And for the record, Harang DID spend time in 2008 on the DL with a strained forearm - considering he's been on the DL because a of a strained forearm before, and the fact that his performance declined sharply after an abusive relief stint, AND his recent run of high velocity / no command outings - YES, THOSE ARE SIGNS OF AN ARM INJURY.

Nowhere did I ever say for sure he was injured. I said I suspected he might have been. He still could be. He also might not be, and he may not have ever really been.

But taking Aaron Harang's words for it is foolish. Most pitcher won't admit they are hurt until their arm is hanging by a thread. If you've followed baseball much at all, you should know that.

But if coming on here and posting as if every one of your opinions is gospel makes you feel better - hey, that's cool. Maybe I'll make use of the ignore button soon.

The subject here is 2009, not 2008. Don't try to change the subject to make a point.

Kingspoint
05-10-2010, 08:16 PM
But if coming on here and posting as if every one of your opinions is gospel makes you feel better - hey, that's cool. Maybe I'll make use of the ignore button soon.

Can't say this enough times. It's not my opinion. Boy, you love to change the subject to fit your needs. Talk about obtuse. It's Aaron Harang's words, not mine.

The Operator
05-10-2010, 08:18 PM
Boom, ignored.

gilpdawg
05-11-2010, 07:53 AM
Are you SERIOUSLY telling me that every player in the history of Major League Baseball who has ever said they weren't injured - was telling the truth?



Mike Lincoln hid his neck injury last year. It happens all the time. I believe something wasn't right with Harang the last couple of years. He did have an MRI on his elbow in 2008. It's not like he snapped his fingers and whatever issue he had was, poof, gone. I'm not convinced the SD relief appearance had anything to do with it. He had been scuffling for a start or two before that.

Caveman Techie
05-11-2010, 08:13 AM
Harang never had arm problems last year.

Quit making excuses for the guy.

August 23, 2009 Placed on 15-day DL (placed on 15-day DL)


Quit warping reality to your own wishes.

Vottomatic
05-11-2010, 08:40 AM
Came on this thread for some good conversation and information and all I find is a couple of kids fighting.

Ugh.