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Degenerate39
03-30-2010, 10:42 AM
How many years do they have left with the Reds? I can't imagine the Reds needing them after this year. The rotation could look something like this next year without them:

Volquez
Cueto
Bailey
Chapman
Leake/Wood

RedsManRick
03-30-2010, 10:49 AM
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/cincinnati-reds_24.html

Both have club options for 2011 w/ $2M buyouts.

Harang:
4 years/$36.5M (2007-10), plus 2011 club option
re-signed by Cincinnati 2/07 (avoided arbitration, $5.5M-$4.25M)

07:$4.25M, 08:$6.75M, 09:$11M, 10:$12.5M, 11:$12.75M ($2M buyout)
2011 option increases to $13M with 210 IP in 2010
if traded, 2011 option becomes mutual option at $14M ($2.5M buyout)


Arroyo:
2 years/$25M (2009-10), plus 2011 club option
signed extension with Cincinnati 2/07

$2.5M signing bonus (paid 2008)
09:$9.5M, 10:$11M, 11:$11M club option ($2M buyout)
2011 option may increase to $13M based on IP
agreed to give up 2008 performance bonuses as part of deal

WebScorpion
03-31-2010, 12:38 PM
If either one of them can make the leap to 20-game winner, $11-$12.75mil becomes an affordable contract. It would really escalate what we might get in trade for them as well. ;) Ideally, we avoid paying part of their salary in any trade and we get some decent prospects, or a ML piece for our offense, in return. :thumbup:

RedsManRick
03-31-2010, 01:21 PM
I think we're in a bit of a catch-22 with them. If we're out of the race, chances are they haven't been pitching terribly well and won't get much for them in a trade. If we're in the race, chances are they have been pitching well and we won't want to trade them.

And given their current salaries and the realities of the FA market, even if we decline their options, I doubt we offer them arbitration, the necessary pre-requisite towards getting draft pick compensation.

All that said, if I had to guess, I think this is Arroyo's last year as a Red. If we're out of the race, he's gone in July; If we're in it, we let him walk after the season. If Harang bounces back to innings eater & 4ish ERA territory, I think he gets something like a 3/35 extension in lieu of his option being picked up. If he struggles a little, we pick up the option. If he struggles a lot, he walks.

I think it's important to realize that:
a) The Reds aren't crazy cash strapped and have the young core cost controlled for a few years still.
b) Both Arroyo and Harang are being fairly compensated relative to the cost of their production on the FA market. Whether or not it makes sense for the Reds to keep them at their salary is a legitimate question, but they are not "overpaid."

I very much doubt the Reds enter 2011 with an all under-26 rotation (Volquez, Cueto, Bailey, Chapman, Wood -- for example). Our management team is simply too big on the value of veteran leadership.

fearofpopvol1
03-31-2010, 01:29 PM
I think we're in a bit of a catch-22 with them. If we're out of the race, chances are they haven't been pitching terribly well and won't get much for them in a trade. If we're in the race, chances are they have been pitching well and we won't want to trade them.

And given their current salaries and the realities of the FA market, even if we decline their options, I doubt we offer them arbitration, the necessary pre-requisite towards getting draft pick compensation.

All that said, if I had to guess, I think this is Arroyo's last year as a Red. If we're out of the race, he's gone in July; If we're in it, we let him walk after the season. If Harang bounces back to innings eater & 4ish ERA territory, I think he gets something like a 3/35 extension in lieu of his option being picked up. If he struggles a little, we pick up the option. If he struggles a lot, he walks.

I think it's important to realize that:
a) The Reds aren't crazy cash strapped and have the young core cost controlled for a few years still.
b) Both Arroyo and Harang are being fairly compensated relative to the cost of their production on the FA market. Whether or not it makes sense for the Reds to keep them at their salary is a legitimate question, but they are not "overpaid."

I very much doubt the Reds enter 2011 with an all under-26 rotation (Volquez, Cueto, Bailey, Chapman, Wood -- for example). Our management team is simply too big on the value of veteran leadership.

Great post. To be honest though, I wouldn't want an all under 26 rotation just yet. I may be in the minority, but that is a ballsy risk! I'd actually like to keep Harang around for this year and next. Maybe after I'd let him go. By then, I think the younger guys will be ready to take over the rotation.

I think folks need to remember injurries. Volquez may not even be useful at all this year and Wood has had a history of injuries too.

Chip R
03-31-2010, 01:58 PM
I think the Reds will keep either Harang or Arroyo in 2011 but not both. And, if you had to go on performance over the last couple of years, Arroyo would be the one to stay and Harang bought out for $2M.

Sea Ray
03-31-2010, 02:03 PM
I think the Reds will keep either Harang or Arroyo in 2011 but not both. And, if you had to go on performance over the last couple of years, Arroyo would be the one to stay and Harang bought out for $2M.

I agree. I think they do not want to part with Arroyo. My bet is Harang is let go and signs a low ball contract with San Diego in 2011

Will M
05-27-2010, 12:28 AM
Bronson's having a nice first half. 5-2 with a 1.22 whip & a 4.30 ERA. this after a nice 2009. the general assumption seems to be that the Reds will buy out both Bronson & Aaron's contracts after the season. i know its early but if Bronson continues to pitch like he has last year & this year then the Reds should keep him for $11M in 2011. even in a weaker economy with teams watching payroll more the $11M seems a good deal for this type of production.

TheNext44
05-27-2010, 01:21 AM
The Reds will need a veteran inning eater next season, and without a doubt, Arroyo is the best available pitcher who fits that description this off season.

In terms of Arroyo vs. Harang, Arroyo's been better than Harang, more durable, and been more of an innings eater, averaging 6.3 innings a start since 2008, as opposed to 6.2 for Harang. Harang has had a better FIP and xFIP nearly every year, and yet, Arroyo has the lower ERA during his tenure as a Reds, than Harang has over his tenure as a Red (4.05 to 4.25). So I think that is safe to say that their FIP's Have not been accurate predictors of their talent.

I think the only real question for the Reds is how do they want to sign Arroyo. Is it better to pick up his option, or risk turning it down and trying to sign him, or possibly signing him to a Rolenesque extension.

VR
05-27-2010, 01:48 AM
Since last May 22nd....Bronson has ;

Made 35 starts (28 Quality Starts)
Pitched 268.66 innings (averaging 7 2/3 innings PER START)
Given up 212 hits, 66 bb's for a 1.03 WHIP

ERA of 3.28

Gone 15-12....(including 11 quality starts in which he got a loss or no decision) He finished last year with 12 straight QS...and went 5-3

BearcatShane
05-27-2010, 02:00 AM
Since last May 22nd....Bronson has ;

Made 35 starts (28 Quality Starts)
Pitched 268.66 innings (averaging 7 2/3 innings PER START)
Given up 212 hits, 66 bb's for a 1.03 WHIP

ERA of 3.28

Gone 15-12....(including 11 quality starts in which he got a loss or no decision) He finished last year with 12 straight QS...and went 5-3




Bronson Arroyo! Gettin it done! (In the Thom Brennaman voice)

GAC
05-27-2010, 04:59 AM
Keep Arroyo. Let Harang walk.

membengal
05-27-2010, 06:18 AM
I think the Reds will keep either Harang or Arroyo in 2011 but not both. And, if you had to go on performance over the last couple of years, Arroyo would be the one to stay and Harang bought out for $2M.

This.

I would be more than fine with Arroyo sticking around. His stuff is aging well and he remains the kind of steady occasionally brilliant innings eater I would prefer to have on a team with young starters around him.

I would also be glad to wish Harang well in his future endeavors.

oneupper
05-27-2010, 08:16 AM
Agreeing with the Arroyo Si, Harang No scenario. I'd go as far as offering Arroyo an extension a la Rolen, say 3/27 (including his 11 for 2011).

Innings eaters are not easy to find.

bucksfan2
05-27-2010, 08:36 AM
I began to think starting at the end of last season that the Reds would pick up Arroyo's option for 2011. While Arroyo is what he is, what he is is very valuable to a team especially like the Reds. I think a vet presence in the rotation is a must going into next season and the future. It also allows for a guy like Volquez or even Bailey to spend time in the pen if need be. You really can't have enough depth in your rotation.

edabbs44
05-27-2010, 08:38 AM
Keep Arroyo (if reasonable, go two years), let Harang walk, shop a starter for offense.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-27-2010, 08:48 AM
Arroyo has been worth every penny he has made.

One of the most underrated pitchers in all of baseball that gets it done, consistently, every single year.

reds1869
05-27-2010, 09:22 AM
Arroyo has been worth every penny he has made.

One of the most underrated pitchers in all of baseball that gets it done, consistently, every single year.

When I was watching the game last night, I turned to wife and simply said "that is a big league pitcher right there." He is truly under-appreciated and I hope the Reds keep him another year or two.

Cyclone792
05-27-2010, 09:38 AM
Since joining the Reds, Arroyo has made 146 starts in 4 1/3 seasons, pitching 938 innings and giving us a 112 ERA+ over that stretch.

That's solid right there.