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Benihana
03-31-2010, 09:00 PM
Who is your pick?

Scrap Irony
03-31-2010, 09:09 PM
To start the season, Mike Leake looks like the best choice. He's got stuff, intelligence, and a track record of throwing strikes. If he struggles or the Reds need to limit his innings, both Wood and Chapman would then be available without missing much.

For the first time in 50 years, you really can't go wrong with any of them, at this point.

reds44
03-31-2010, 09:12 PM
Leake.

It's between him and Wood, and Leake is just a better pitcher.

JaxRed
03-31-2010, 09:14 PM
Lehr. Starting Leake, Chapman, and Wood in minors even for a while extends their FA by a year.

mth123
03-31-2010, 09:21 PM
Lehr. Starting Leake, Chapman, and Wood in minors even for a while extends their FA by a year.

:thumbup:

BearcatShane
03-31-2010, 09:29 PM
Leake. I think he can handle it and he doesn't have to pitch every 5 days with the off days. If this was last year I'd say Lehr to delay free agency but I feel this team has a good shot to compete so I say go for it and let Leake be the fifth starter. I have a feeling it'll be Travis Wood though, I can live with that but Leake's my guy.

RED VAN HOT
03-31-2010, 10:08 PM
I voted for Leake.

From the description of Leake today, it seems that he has very little to learn about pitching. He is able to locate a variety of pitches. I believe he will be competitive against major league hitters who make him throw strikes.

I think that both Chapman and Wood can benefit from a year in the minors. I'd like to see Chapman develop his secondary pitches. He does not need to dial it up to 102 to be dominant.

I noticed that Wood's numbers did decline when he was promoted to AAA. His 9 BB's in 14 IP this spring worry me as well. I'd like to see the BB/K ratio at least 3 against AAA hitters.

I still think Maloney can be a successful starter in the majors, but probably not in Cincinnati.

I was tempted to vote for Owings, but I think he will be more helpful in the pen.

Benihana
03-31-2010, 10:15 PM
Lehr. Starting Leake, Chapman, and Wood in minors even for a while extends their FA by a year.

For the same reason, I say Maloney.

GADawg
03-31-2010, 10:26 PM
I'll go Wood...he's a lefty and on the 40 man...

Joseph
03-31-2010, 10:40 PM
Leake. I'd like to listen to a story about him in 10 years talking about how he started right in the bigs. Makes for good theatre.

SirFelixCat
03-31-2010, 10:47 PM
I'll go Wood...he's a lefty and on the 40 man...

This, plus, they can leave him in the minors for almost a full week until he's needed to pitch, so that holds off the arb clock a year, right?

dougdirt
03-31-2010, 10:50 PM
For the same reason, I say Maloney.

What he said. It also gives Maloney a chance to polish up himself for a trade when one of the other guys are ready and allows you to get something n return for him.

Tom Servo
03-31-2010, 10:58 PM
For the same reason, I say Maloney.
Yup. Plus Maloney's better then Lehr.

TheNext44
03-31-2010, 11:03 PM
Lehr. Starting Leake, Chapman, and Wood in minors even for a while extends their FA by a year.

If any of them spend the first day of the season on a minor league roster, it extends their FA by a year. With the 5th starter not needed until the 10th at the earliest, this is a non issue.

TheNext44
03-31-2010, 11:11 PM
What he said. It also gives Maloney a chance to polish up himself for a trade when one of the other guys are ready and allows you to get something n return for him.

Or he gets off to a poor start and loses what value he currently has...

Or he spends time in the minors learning to be a LOOGY with his above average curveball, and becomes more valuable either to the Reds or any other team.

I think everyone knows what you have in Maloney. A decent #5 starter, a guy who can give you around 5-6 innings a start with around a 4.50-5.00 ERA. His trade value will not go up with a few more starts, no matter how he does in those starts

TheNext44
03-31-2010, 11:14 PM
I picked Wood.

He's not as good as Leake, but still better than Maloney, and good enough to justify keeping Leake in the minors until he passes super two status. Leake reaching arb early will cost the Reds a lot more than Wood.

Superdude
03-31-2010, 11:22 PM
Leake isn't missing a whole lot of bats. Wood's control has been shaky. I think it'll go to Wood because of the roster situation, but definitely a tough decision. Still can't believe how fast Maloney was taken out of the race

kaldaniels
04-01-2010, 12:04 AM
I want to see what Wood can do in the bigs. Leake and Chapman have rotation spots waiting on them for when they are ready...Wood does not, but I really, really, want a lefty in the rotation and Wood has done more than earned a chance. A case could be made for all 3 guys...but Wood could easily get lost in the shuffle...so I put him in Cincy to start.

Will M
04-01-2010, 12:41 AM
i voted Leake.

i watched Wood tonight. his control seems to be an issue. since he was good not great in AAA last year i think he could benefit from a little time there.

Chapman isn't stretched out at this point due to his back injury. if Leake pitches well in the 5th slot & Chapman continues to pitch well we have a nice problem: six quality pitchers for five rotation slots. brings me back to an issue i raised a while back: could Chapman or Leake pitch out of the pen?

Here's my 2010 staff.
Arroyo
Cueto
Bailey
Harang
Leake (called up April 11th)
--------------------------
Cordero
Rhodes (L)
Masset
Herrera (L)
Burton
Owings
Chapman (L) (also called up ~2 weeks into the season)


AAA: Wood (L)
AAA: Lehr for insurance
AAA: Ondrusek. gets the call if one of the middle relievers falter
AAA: Fisher. marginal stuff
Released: Lincoln
???: Maloney. likely to AAA but available in the right trade

Caveat Emperor
04-01-2010, 01:22 AM
I voted Wood -- but I'd be OK with Lehr or Maloney as well.

Really, if the choice is between Wood & Leake, you almost have to give Wood the first crack. He's your minor league player of the year, he's got tons of professional innings under his belt, and he's a guy that's done everything that the organization has asked of him -- including compete neck and neck with Leake for the opening in the rotation this year.

Kid has paid his dues, worked hard, and made it to this point. If it's a pick 'em between Leake and Wood, give me the guy who's earned his spot on the field over the years vs. a guy that's shown up and had a good spring.

WebScorpion
04-01-2010, 01:55 AM
I picked Wood too. It seems he and Leake are the only two stretched out enough to fill the role and I'm concerned that Leake has never gone a full summer pitching every five days. I like that Wood is a lefty and I think he's earned a shot with his years in the minors.
I think Leake will be a better pitcher in the end, but I'd like to see them take it easy with him for the entire season.

reds44
04-01-2010, 03:57 AM
Final Stats

Leake: 18 IP, 16 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 1 HR, 1 HBP, 4 BB, 10 K
Wood: 18 IP, 15 H, 8 R, 7 ER, 2 HR, 1 HBP, 12 BB, 17 K

Yeah, not a lot of difference between the two besides the fact that Wood is striking out more and walking more batters.

Ron Madden
04-01-2010, 04:21 AM
I voted for Maloney. The others on the list may have more talent but IMHO they should not be rushed.

We'll probably see them all soon enough.

reds1869
04-01-2010, 08:13 AM
Leake. He is already very polished and can step in and get the job done.

chicoruiz
04-01-2010, 08:16 AM
Lehr, becuase I think he could best adapt to the irregular schedule that he 5th starter will have in April. The others would best be served by pitching in a regular rotation in Louisville for a couple of weeks; by that time maybe one standout candidate will have emerged.

Danny Serafini
04-01-2010, 09:16 AM
If any of them spend the first day of the season on a minor league roster, it extends their FA by a year. With the 5th starter not needed until the 10th at the earliest, this is a non issue.

That's not how it works. If a player is optioned down but spends less than 20 days in the minors he's credited with a full season of service time. That's to avoid the exact situation you describe. That takes care of Wood, but Leake is different since he's not yet on the 40 man roster.

For service time purposes, an MLB year is 172 days. The actual calendar year is longer though, this year it's 182 days. That means Leake could spend the first 10 days in the minors, be called up and still get his 172 days and a full year of service time.

bucksfan2
04-01-2010, 09:19 AM
Whoever it is, Leake or Wood, would you bring option them to AAA but bring them to Cincy for opening day? I don't know if that is allowed under the rules but I think it would be a good move by the Reds to allow those two young players to soak in the opening day atmosphere.

lollipopcurve
04-01-2010, 09:22 AM
I voted based on the current situation -- Leake. I'm concerned that Wood has some command issues that would result in too many short outings. Let him go to AAA with a prescription to work on being more efficient.

However, I would have voted Maloney if he had been stretched out like the other guys.

lollipopcurve
04-01-2010, 09:27 AM
Yeah, not a lot of difference between the two besides the fact that Wood is striking out more and walking more batters.

The fact that Wood has 12 BBs vs. 4 for Leake is a major difference, IMO.

Sea Ray
04-01-2010, 09:32 AM
Whoever it is, Leake or Wood, would you bring option them to AAA but bring them to Cincy for opening day? I don't know if that is allowed under the rules but I think it would be a good move by the Reds to allow those two young players to soak in the opening day atmosphere.

I agree that neither should be on the roster on April 5th. We won't need the 5th starter until April 11th.

All along I've been leaning towards Wood but he did not impress me last night. He struggled going through the lineup a second time and he also left some balls up and very hittable. He's got to have better command if he's going to be successful in the bigs. If I have to decide today I think I'd go with Maloney but really they don't have to make a call for another week. With the contract situations with guys like Miles, Balentien and Lincoln I think they need to put this off until April 10th or so.

membengal
04-01-2010, 09:33 AM
Leake. I like Wood's future, but do question his command at this point. I think he could use some more time at AAA.

As for Leake, I am persuaded that the plus command he was reported to have heading into the draft is legit, and that the scouts and observers who rave about his make-up and approach on the mound are seeing something there that will allow him to go straight to GABP and have success.

I want this team to win, and I think Leake gives them the best chance of that. Leake is my vote.

TRF
04-01-2010, 09:34 AM
Maloney. give Leake and Wood a year at AAA. Let them and Chapman force the issue by the end of May.

GoReds
04-01-2010, 09:37 AM
I was on the Wood bandwagon, but the control issue is a killer. Let's see what Leake can do.

Jpup
04-01-2010, 10:09 AM
I would take the best pitcher and, right now, I believe that Leake is it.

dfs
04-01-2010, 10:14 AM
Maloney. give Leake and Wood a year at AAA. Let them and Chapman force the issue by the end of May.

yeah. Historically this seems such an obvious choice, but something had to happen to/with Matt Maloney that the reds gave up on him being a starter that quickly.

I know he was never a great candidate to succeed in the long term, but they've essentially given up on him based on 8 spring training innings?

He's gone from next in line to try as a starter to...what fourth in line and "sure skip I'll try relieving in order to get a job."

lollipopcurve
04-01-2010, 10:25 AM
yeah. Historically this seems such an obvious choice, but something had to happen to/with Matt Maloney that the reds gave up on him being a starter that quickly.

I know he was never a great candidate to succeed in the long term, but they've essentially given up on him based on 8 spring training innings?

He's gone from next in line to try as a starter to...what fourth in line and "sure skip I'll try relieving in order to get a job."

I agree 100% with this. It's strange. He had the blister problem last year -- maybe that's been recurring. Maybe his velocity is down. Maybe his arm isn't quite right. But I thought he pitched well enough in his audition last year to merit being in the mix all the way -- and he got pulled out of it quickly.

It could also be a philosophical shift for the team whereby they are now going with talent over other considerations (such as service time and development issues). Maybe Bryan Price is part of that change. Whatever it is, I didn't see it coming.

thatcoolguy_22
04-01-2010, 10:26 AM
I voted Wood.

Think of the draw to GABP if Leake made it though. "Starting tonight is Mike Leake, the first player in 21 years to completely skip the minor leagues." That statement alone could be worth as much in ticket sales as Chapman in midseason form.

Chip R
04-01-2010, 10:27 AM
Whoever it is, Leake or Wood, would you bring option them to AAA but bring them to Cincy for opening day? I don't know if that is allowed under the rules but I think it would be a good move by the Reds to allow those two young players to soak in the opening day atmosphere.


I don't think that would be a problem since the minors start later than MLB does but it would probably be better to leave them behind in AZ and work with their new teammates.

SirFelixCat
04-01-2010, 11:24 AM
I was on the Wood bandwagon, but the control issue is a killer. Let's see what Leake can do.

Pretty much. Leake sure has some pretty impressive command.

My only concern about Leake is that he isn't missing nearly enough bats.

TheNext44
04-01-2010, 01:56 PM
A few people have mentioned that they are worried because Leake doesn't miss enough bats. I understand why some are worried, but I don't see it as a real issue.

Missing bats, I think, is a bit over-rated for a pitcher. It's something that the Saber community has emphasized, and rightfully so, but it is not the only factor in determining a pitchers success. Even if you agree that a pitcher can't control the number of hits he gives up on balls put into play (something I don't agree with), there are still two just as important factors to use in evaluating a pitcher. Home runs and walks.

If a pitcher can keep home runs and walks down, then he can be very successful, even if he doesn't K at a high rate. I am not sure this is the case for Leake, he may end up being a HR machine once in the majors. But what's important to note is that being good at just one of these three is not enough to make you a good pitcher and being bad at one is not enough to make you a bad pitcher.

I think that Leake doesn't need to worry about his K's, if his HR and walks are kept a reasonable level.

membengal
04-01-2010, 02:01 PM
An excerpt of Rob Neyer's thoughts today:


I know they're close -- we looked at Leake and Wood last week -- but aren't Wood's 12 walks in 18 innings a bit of a red flag? Especially considering that he's walked roughly four hitters per nine innings in the minors? Wood is still a baby, just turned 23 this winter. But I'd like to see him throw a higher percentage of strikes before asking him to retire Albert Pujols.

Leake, though he's not pitched a single inning of Organized Baseball, did pitch 162 innings last year: 142 with Arizona State, then 20 in the Arizona Fall League. Do we count 162 innings, and assume he can bump to 180-some this year? Or do think he should be babied in his first real professional season?

As always, I would err on the side of caution. But with Wood and Aroldis Chapman backing him up, giving Leake a slot in the rotation tomorrow doesn't mean he has to throw 200 innings this year. I think he's ready, and I think he's going to win the job.

Spring~Fields
04-01-2010, 05:28 PM
Cincinnati IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA
Cueto 4.0 10 5 5 1 6 1 5.40

Today's line.

Does Cueto have options left? I would rather see Leake and Woods over seeing him.

OnBaseMachine
04-01-2010, 05:36 PM
Cincinnati IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA
Cueto 4.0 10 5 5 1 6 1 5.40

Today's line.

Does Cueto have options left? I would rather see Leake and Woods over seeing him.

Maybe it's just where I'm not around other teams' fans as much, but it seems to me that Reds fans take spring training numbers way more serious than other fans. It's spring training folks, the Reds are playing in an extreme hitter friendly environment. Who cares what their numbers look like in ST as long as they are prepared for the regular season. I see the 1 BB/6 K from Cueto and come away pleased. I don't care about the runs in ST.

RedsManRick
04-01-2010, 05:58 PM
Cincinnati IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA
Cueto 4.0 10 5 5 1 6 1 5.40

Today's line.

Does Cueto have options left? I would rather see Leake and Woods over seeing him.

6 K, 1 BB, 1 HR in 4 IP. He pitched fine and got unlucky with the hits. Maybe he a made a few mistake pitches, but sometimes the balls just find holes.

The FIP concept still applies on a game-by-game basis; He's going to allow something like a .300 BABIP. There's no reason I'm aware of we should expect any differently.

reds44
04-01-2010, 06:08 PM
Cincinnati IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA
Cueto 4.0 10 5 5 1 6 1 5.40

Today's line.

Does Cueto have options left? I would rather see Leake and Woods over seeing him.
April fools?

TheNext44
04-01-2010, 06:12 PM
6 K, 1 BB, 1 HR in 4 IP. He pitched fine and got unlucky with the hits. Maybe he a made a few mistake pitches, but sometimes the balls just find holes.

The FIP concept still applies on a game-by-game basis; He's going to allow something like a .300 BABIP. There's no reason I'm aware of we should expect any differently.

I agree completely in abstract, and am not worried one bit about Cueto. But judging from the radio broadcast, which can be deceiving, he seemed to struggle the whole game. Brantley kept talking about how Cueto was falling off the mound more than usual, leaving the ball up and getting hit hard. Those hits didn't sound unlucky. ;)

Spring~Fields
04-01-2010, 07:23 PM
Maybe it's just where I'm not around other teams' fans as much, but it seems to me that Reds fans take spring training numbers way more serious than other fans. It's spring training folks, the Reds are playing in an extreme hitter friendly environment. Who cares what their numbers look like in ST as long as they are prepared for the regular season. I see the 1 BB/6 K from Cueto and come away pleased. I don't care about the runs in ST.

Benedict Arnold.......:D

I don't go by only spring training numbers, anymore than you rely on just a ball for oily lanes or a ball for dry lanes all the time. For all lane and house conditions, you just hung another ten pin dude. LOL :lol:

I don't see the improvements in Cueto that the rest of you do. We saw him pitch some fantastic pitching that first year, and we have seen what we have seen after Pole, had to have Soto called in, and forward. Cueto I think should be showing a bit more consistency and optimisitic improvement by now. I know you guys are willing to find the positives and excuse the other, for a couple more years yet. Kind of like the fans of EE use to do, not me.


But judging from the radio broadcast, which can be deceiving, he seemed to struggle the whole game. Brantley kept talking about how Cueto was falling off the mound more than usual, leaving the ball up and getting hit hard. Those hits didn't sound unlucky. ;)

And we have seen that for quite awhile, even barring spring training past or present and it should be correctable, and it hasn't been.

OnBaseMachine
04-01-2010, 07:31 PM
Johnny Cueto is 24 years old and has been a slightly below average starter through two seasons (95 ERA+), despite being rushed to the majors (only 83 innings above High-A). You make it seem like he's been around forever and has been awful. That's far from the truth. Ideally, Cueto should have spent the 2008 season in Louisville but the Reds needed another starter and Cueto dominated spring training and basicially forced the Reds to start him in the majors.

He was one of the best starters in baseball during the first half of 2009 before tiring out from pitching winter ball and in the World Baseball Classic. He's still very young and very talented. To give up on him at this point would be foolish, IMO.

Spring~Fields
04-01-2010, 07:45 PM
Johnny Cueto is 24 years old and has been a slightly below average starter through two seasons (95 ERA+), despite being rushed to the majors (only 83 innings above High-A). You make it seem like he's been around forever and has been awful. That's far from the truth. Ideally, Cueto should have spent the 2008 season in Louisville but the Reds needed another starter and Cueto dominated spring training and basicially forced the Reds to start him in the majors.

He was one of the best starters in baseball during the first half of 2009 before tiring out from pitching winter ball and in the World Baseball Classic. He's still very young and very talented. To give up on him at this point would be foolish, IMO.

No one, never, never ever, said anything about giving up on Cueto. First of all to complain about him, indicates that one believes that he has the ability and skills to be better to begin with, if he did not have those skills or ability it would be pointless to complain while expecting better from him. To expect better, and more, is a compliment, and actually praising him for having it within him to do better. Think about it.

You yourself lead with the indicators and bring out the best points that suggest where his problems that do exist, might have started, and you're indicating that the young Johnny Cueto needs more work, and that maybe he never should have been in the majors.


Johnny Cueto is 24 years old


has been a slightly below average starter through two seasons


despite being rushed to the majors (only 83 innings above High-A).


Cueto should have spent the 2008 season in Louisville but the Reds needed another starter

If you were his lawyer, he would lose.

So you or anyone "absolutely" knows that Cueto would not be helped by being in the minors to work on his issues? Even though you indicate that he should have never been up with the major league team to begin with?

By the way, what was his velocity back then when he was wowing us and the Reds, and where is it now? When he is getting hit hard, between times of getting upset on the mound etc?


He was one of the best starters in baseball during the first half of 2009 before tiring out from pitching winter ball and in the World Baseball Classic. He's still very young and very talented

You give a hint there above that a "young" Cueto also was poorly handled and managed by the Reds, not only there, but, also in rushing him after "(only 83 innings above High-A)"

No surprise to me, why, we have to look the other way, and excuse him. Let's just keep tossing him out to the wolves, one wolf Pole is gone, the other instructor is still there. Maybe he will survive them and major league hitting.

OnBaseMachine
04-01-2010, 09:53 PM
So you or anyone "absolutely" knows that Cueto would not be helped by being in the minors to work on his issues? Even though you indicate that he should have never been up with the major league team to begin with?


Johnny Cueto absolutely should not begin the 2010 season in the minors, IMO. He was basically a league average starter last year despite going through a terrible eight start stretch in the middle of the season. You don't send those types of starters to the minors.

I said ideally, in a perfect world, he would have began the 2008 season in Louisville for some more seasoning, and then they could have brought him up later in that season. But, as we know, it's not a perfect world and the Reds needed a starter at the time. Considering the circumstances, I think he's been a solid pitcher in his first two big league seasons. Sending him to the minors now is only going to tick him off and shatter his confidence.

Spring~Fields
04-02-2010, 03:56 AM
Johnny Cueto absolutely should not begin the 2010 season in the minors, IMO. He was basically a league average starter last year despite going through a terrible eight start stretch in the middle of the season. You don't send those types of starters to the minors.

I said ideally, in a perfect world, he would have began the 2008 season in Louisville for some more seasoning, and then they could have brought him up later in that season. But, as we know, it's not a perfect world and the Reds needed a starter at the time. Considering the circumstances, I think he's been a solid pitcher in his first two big league seasons. Sending him to the minors now is only going to tick him off and shatter his confidence.

Maloney and Bailey must be mental wrecks and beyond therapy by now. :)

Oh ok. I assume that you don't think that either Leake, Wood or Chapman is as good as Cueto then. Ideally you would keep Cueto over them. No need to bring them up if they aren't as good or better than Cueto.

I guess Cueto is more delicate than Bailey and how he was handled, I mean if Bailey continues to show that improvement that he exhibited last year toward the end.

Well we will let the season tell us what really is from the results with the pitchers, like we will with the offense.

By the way, what was his, Cueto's velocity back then when he was wowing us and the Reds, and where is it now? When he is getting hit hard, between times of getting upset on the mound etc?

reds44
04-02-2010, 04:04 AM
Cueto doesn't deserve to be, nor will he be sent to the minors.

Pretty much all that needs to be said about that topic.

Spring~Fields
04-02-2010, 04:11 AM
Cueto doesn't deserve to be, nor will he be sent to the minors.

Pretty much all that needs to be said about that topic.

Well, it never did help EE did it. ;)

We will let the season tell us what really is from the results with the pitchers, like we will with the offense.

Ron Madden
04-02-2010, 04:15 AM
I believe Johnny Cueto will be just fine.

Spring~Fields
04-02-2010, 04:22 AM
I believe Johnny Cueto will be just fine.

Sooner or later, certainly. :)

redsfandan
04-02-2010, 06:16 AM
Voted Maloney. Would also be ok with Lehr. Out of the two real options left I'd take Wood. From a business perspective it makes way too much sense to let the highest upside guys (Chapman/Leake) pitch in the minors until the major league season is 6-8 weeks old. So, I'll be keeping my fingers crossed that the Reds pick Wood.

mth123
04-02-2010, 07:01 AM
Voted Maloney. Would also be ok with Lehr. Out of the two real options left I'd take Wood. From a business perspective it makes way too much sense to let the highest upside guys (Chapman/Leake) pitch in the minors until the major league season is 6-8 weeks old. So, I'll be keeping my fingers crossed that the Reds pick Wood.

Agree with this, but I just want to add that whether its Business or Baseball reasoning, priority number one is keeping these guys healthy. Investing $30 Million in Chapman and having him come up and pitch a couple of months as a Phenom before going the way of Wayne Simpson is hardly a smart move from a baseball or a business standpoint. Chapman's 119 IP last year was a career high and as a 21 Y/O is squarely in the middle of the most dangerous time for a pitcher. I still say 125 IP in the AAA rotation followed by 20 to 25 innings in the big league pen in August and September is best for him in 2010.

Leake is also in the danger zone and needs to get on the 5 day routine. A full season in AAA of 160 to 170 innings in the AAA rotation would be best for him as well, but he could probably come up sooner if the reds had no other options. He threw 140+ in college last year, so a 165 to 170 IP won't hurt him and some could be logged in the majors after he has adjusted to the every 5 days routine.

Wood hasn't conquered AAA yet and had a couple bad years in a row before his big year last year. His control has left me a bit underwhelmed to be honest. I'd say this is a stopgap year for the 5th spot. Lehr or Maloney with maybe the kids (and Volquez) getting a few starts at the end of the year or in a pinch. In the meantime, the major league team should about getting Bailey and Cueto prepared to replace Harang and Arroyo as the IP anchors for the next few years. Next year, Bailey and Cueto front the staff, Volquez returns and Leake and Chapman are ready to step in. Wood can build value in AAA and be used in a deal while Harang and Arroyo's money can be used on a top end vet obtained in a deal (perhaps where Wood is a prominent piece) or on the free agent market.

redsfandan
04-02-2010, 07:43 AM
I'm confused ...

First this was said:
3/31 11:03 pm:

If any of them spend the first day of the season on a minor league roster, it extends their FA by a year. With the 5th starter not needed until the 10th at the earliest, this is a non issue.Then it was corrected:
4/1 9:16 am:

That's not how it works. If a player is optioned down but spends less than 20 days in the minors he's credited with a full season of service time. That's to avoid the exact situation you describe. That takes care of Wood, but Leake is different since he's not yet on the 40 man roster.

For service time purposes, an MLB year is 172 days. The actual calendar year is longer though, this year it's 182 days. That means Leake could spend the first 10 days in the minors, be called up and still get his 172 days and a full year of service time.
And yet, in another thread, "April 10th" is later repeated:
4/1 8:48 pm:

(TheNext44: Which is why none of them will be. Whoever wins the job will stay in Az for extended spring training until April 10th, when they will be called up to make their first start, thus delaying their Free Agency by a full year.
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2044770&postcount=20

One day and April 10th don't matter. The prospect needs a few weeks in the minors just like Danny Serafini said. I don't think any rookie would start the season in the majors if it was only one day.

redsfandan
04-02-2010, 07:46 AM
I agree mth123 except for the part I put in bold:

Agree with this, but I just want to add that whether its Business or Baseball reasoning, priority number one is keeping these guys healthy. Investing $30 Million in Chapman and having him come up and pitch a couple of months as a Phenom before going the way of Wayne Simpson is hardly a smart move from a baseball or a business standpoint. Chapman's 119 IP last year was a career high and as a 21 Y/O is squarely in the middle of the most dangerous time for a pitcher. I still say 125 IP in the AAA rotation followed by 20 to 25 innings in the big league pen in August and September is best for him in 2010.
If he pitches well in the minors and the Reds are in the playoff chase then I'd consider bringing him up mid-season. But, if the Reds aren't in the playoff chase, and you're not going to bring him up until August/September, you may as well not bother. Bring him up in May, 2011 and then free agency for him would be put off for two years. Let's hold onto the best players for as long as possible is what I think.

mth123
04-02-2010, 07:57 AM
I agree mth123 except for the part I put in bold:

If he pitches well in the minors and the Reds are in the playoff chase then I'd consider bringing him up mid-season. But, if the Reds aren't in the playoff chase, and you're not going to bring him up until August/September, you may as well not bother. Bring him up in May, 2011 and then free agency for him would be put off for two years. Let's hold onto the best players for as long as possible is what I think.

Up in May in the rotation likely leads to too many innings and risks injury. No major league time, leaves him with no experioence for next year. I say get the debut out of the way while adding that last 20 innings or so.

redsfandan
04-02-2010, 08:09 AM
Up in May in the rotation likely leads to too many innings and risks injury.
I don't buy it.

No major league time, leaves him with no experioence for next year.
I think you're overrating the value of 20+ innings in the Reds bullpen late in the season for him.

I say get the debut out of the way while adding that last 20 innings or so.
Guess we'll have to agree to disagree.

Scrap Irony
04-02-2010, 10:32 AM
Priority One isn't health. If it were, they'd pitch underhanded and official scorers would be out of jobs because they wouldn't keep score.

No, Priority One is winning.

I want whomever will allow the Reds to win more often. I don't care about money, service time, or anything else.

membengal
04-02-2010, 11:14 AM
Priority One isn't health. If it were, they'd pitch underhanded and official scorers would be out of jobs because they wouldn't keep score.

No, Priority One is winning.

I want whomever will allow the Reds to win more often. I don't care about money, service time, or anything else.

This. 1000 times this.

OnBaseMachine
04-02-2010, 11:30 AM
Maloney and Bailey must be mental wrecks and beyond therapy by now. :)


Yeah, I forgot that Bailey and Maloney spent two full seasons in the majors and were just under league average starters before being shipped back to the minors in year three. :rolleyes: You're comparing apples and oranges in this case.

steig
04-02-2010, 12:32 PM
Priority One isn't health. If it were, they'd pitch underhanded and official scorers would be out of jobs because they wouldn't keep score.

No, Priority One is winning.

I want whomever will allow the Reds to win more often. I don't care about money, service time, or anything else.

I can only hope that this is the thought process of the Reds front office.

Spring~Fields
04-02-2010, 01:15 PM
Yeah, I forgot that Bailey and Maloney spent two full seasons in the majors and were just under league average starters before being shipped back to the minors in year three. :rolleyes: You're comparing apples and oranges in this case.

You keep rolling and leaving that 7-10 split with me. You are being non-responsive to my question about his velocity for some reason. :)

Then you're missing my veiled question, are Woods, Leake and Chapman as good as Cueto at this point? If they are equal to or better than Cueto, or if they are not as good as Cueto, then what? then who among them should be occupying that limited territory of staring major league pitcher for the Reds. If they are not, why should the Reds bring one of them up?

I already know that you are huge fan of Johnny Cueto's, no need to reinforce that belief. Just tell me about his velocity then and now. :) You've covered your admiration for the "young" pitcher.

By the way, what was his, Cueto's velocity back then when he was wowing us and the Reds, and where is it now? When he is getting hit hard, between times of getting upset on the mound etc?

I must have stumbled onto something with that question, he doesn't want to go there.

lollipopcurve
04-02-2010, 01:17 PM
the "young" pitcher

No quotes needed. Cueto is in fact young.

TheNext44
04-02-2010, 01:26 PM
I'm confused ...

First this was said:
3/31 11:03 pm:
Then it was corrected:
4/1 9:16 am:

And yet, in another thread, "April 10th" is later repeated:
4/1 8:48 pm:

One day and April 10th don't matter. The prospect needs a few weeks in the minors just like Danny Serafini said. I don't think any rookie would start the season in the majors if it was only one day.

My bad. I missed Danny's post. Sorry

Spring~Fields
04-02-2010, 01:30 PM
No quotes needed. Cueto is in fact young.

What is your expectations from the Reds pitchers this year, and which of the younger pitcher's can we expect to see marked improvements from and to what extent?

Cyclone792
04-02-2010, 01:39 PM
I'm confused ...

First this was said:
3/31 11:03 pm:
Then it was corrected:
4/1 9:16 am:

And yet, in another thread, "April 10th" is later repeated:
4/1 8:48 pm:

One day and April 10th don't matter. The prospect needs a few weeks in the minors just like Danny Serafini said. I don't think any rookie would start the season in the majors if it was only one day.

And going even further, to avoid Super Two status, you're looking at late May being the cutoff for bringing a prospect up (see Jay Bruce). At the end of the day, if saving future money and service time is ideal, then late May is the cutoff you really want to pay attention to.

TheNext44
04-02-2010, 01:47 PM
And going even further, to avoid Super Two status, you're looking at late May being the cutoff for bringing a prospect up (see Jay Bruce). At the end of the day, if saving future money and service time is ideal, then late May is the cutoff you really want to pay attention to.

I am much less worried about super two status than Free Agency status. Unless Leake or Woods turns into Lincecum, it really won't cost that much more, maybe a few million over a few years, and having your best on the field as often as possible is worth that.

And as to the Free Agency question:

If the Reds give Lehr, or Owings or even Lincoln a spot start on April 14th, they won't need a fifth starter until April 24, which would advance both Wood's and Leake's Free Agency clock by a full year.

mth123
04-02-2010, 02:38 PM
Priority One isn't health. If it were, they'd pitch underhanded and official scorers would be out of jobs because they wouldn't keep score.

No, Priority One is winning.

I want whomever will allow the Reds to win more often. I don't care about money, service time, or anything else.

If Winning is priority one, then health is a prerequisite.

I could go to your extreme with your throw them underhanded remark, lets just stick Bailey, Chapman and Leake (clearly the three top arms on the staff) in a 3 man rotation and let them go 9 every time, because its all about winning and keeping them healthy won't matter at all. Why let anyone else pitch, because, Harang, Arroyo and even Cueto don't give the team as much chance.

Winning isn't just about the first couple months of 2010. This team's window is 2011 to 2015. I want them healthy for that. I'll gladly coddle them and let them grow for a year until then.

mth123
04-02-2010, 02:42 PM
I think you're overrating the value of 20+ innings in the Reds bullpen late in the season for him.

20 in the pen repesents a couple of months of big league life. Get all that getting acclimated out of the way so that in 2011 when it really will matter for this team's play-off hopes, he can just go out and pitch.

bucksfan2
04-02-2010, 02:48 PM
I am much less worried about super two status than Free Agency status. Unless Leake or Woods turns into Lincecum, it really won't cost that much more, maybe a few million over a few years, and having your best on the field as often as possible is worth that.

And as to the Free Agency question:

If the Reds give Lehr, or Owings or even Lincoln a spot start on April 14th, they won't need a fifth starter until April 24, which would advance both Wood's and Leake's Free Agency clock by a full year.

I am mixed when you start talking about super 2's and top prospects. I think in some ways its fiscally smart to keep a young star down in the minors as to avoid the super two status. On the other had if a player performs at a high level and gets that super two status then they likely are productive.

Pitchers create an interesting dilema because their effectiveness is once every 5 days. In reality if you skip 5 starts of Leake or Wood's you are in effect eliminating the super two status. The question you have to consider is Maloney/Owings/Lehr/Wells/etc. over 5 starts that much worse than either Leake or Wood? If you assume that Leake or Wood will win 2 out of their first 5 starts is that worth a year of higher pay?

mth123
04-02-2010, 02:49 PM
I am mixed when you start talking about super 2's and top prospects. I think in some ways its fiscally smart to keep a young star down in the minors as to avoid the super two status. On the other had if a player performs at a high level and gets that super two status then they likely are productive.

Pitchers create an interesting dilema because their effectiveness is once every 5 days. In reality if you skip 5 starts of Leake or Wood's you are in effect eliminating the super two status. The question you have to consider is Maloney/Owings/Lehr/Wells/etc. over 5 starts that much worse than either Leake or Wood? If you assume that Leake or Wood will win 2 out of their first 5 starts is that worth a year of higher pay?

Nice post.

mth123
04-02-2010, 02:54 PM
A point about super two status. Super two is the top percentage of service time for guys between 2 and 3 years of time (17% I think). If everyone starts holding guys back until Memorial Day, won't they all still be in the top percentage? I'm guessing the line is slowly moving to later in the season. If Super 2 is the reason for holding back (and for me its a nice secondary bonus after coddling the guys health), maybe mid-May won't be long enough.

OnBaseMachine
04-02-2010, 03:33 PM
You keep rolling and leaving that 7-10 split with me. You are being non-responsive to my question about his velocity for some reason. :)

All I can do is tell you to go and find out yourself since you are so curious.


By the way, what was his, Cueto's velocity back then when he was wowing us and the Reds, and where is it now? When he is getting hit hard, between times of getting upset on the mound etc?

I must have stumbled onto something with that question, he doesn't want to go there.

See my response above.

I(heart)Freel
04-02-2010, 03:43 PM
A point about super two status. Super two is the top percentage of service time for guys between 2 and 3 years of time (17% I think). If everyone starts holding guys back until Memorial Day, won't they all still be in the top percentage? I'm guessing the line is slowly moving to later in the season. If Super 2 is the reason for holding back (and for me its a nice secondary bonus after coddling the guys health), maybe mid-May won't be long enough.

This is a good point, but I think that the players who break camp with the club and start their service clocks on the first day of the season generally keep the magical date in late May. Unless a bunch of clubs stop doing even that, then the cutoff should generally be around the same time. Generally.

Spring~Fields
04-02-2010, 04:12 PM
All I can do is tell you to go and find out yourself since you are so curious.



See my response above.

:clap::clap::clap:

:lol:

http://www.fangraphs.com/fanpdetails.aspx?playerid=6893

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/johnny-cuetos-sophomore-season

redsfandan
04-02-2010, 05:54 PM
My bad. I missed Danny's post. Sorry
No problem. I wasn't trying to pick on you. I just didn't want people to get the wrong idea regarding prospects and future free agency.

20 in the pen repesents a couple of months of big league life. Get all that getting acclimated out of the way so that in 2011 when it really will matter for this team's play-off hopes, he can just go out and pitch.
I agree that it can help. But, in the big picture, I still don't think it outweighs an extra year of team control. I don't want the Reds window limited to 2011-2015. An extra year of Chapman, Leake, etc helps extend that window.

mth123
04-02-2010, 06:52 PM
No problem. I wasn't trying to pick on you. I just didn't want people to get the wrong idea regarding prospects and future free agency.

I agree that it can help. But, in the big picture, I still don't think it outweighs an extra year of team control. I don't want the Reds window limited to 2011-2015. An extra year of Chapman, Leake, etc helps extend that window.

Unless he's kept off well into next season, it won't mean an extra year.