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mace
04-02-2010, 09:36 PM
I'm curious how the pitching will shake out at Louisville now. It seems as though there are too many arms for the roster. Most of the principals--actually, I'd say just about ALL--seem to have outgrown AA.

I don't know if Thompson and Bray are ready to go or will start the season on the DL. But for now, I'll count them in the mix.

Starters:
Wood
Chapman
Lehr
Maloney
Klinker
Lecure
Jukich
Thompson

That's eight. Seven if Thompson isn't ready. Or Thompson could go to the bullpen. So could Jukich. And it's feasible that Maloney may, as well, considering how he was used at the end of spring training. But it's not like there's a lot of room in the pen, either.

Relievers:
Burton
Fisher
Adkins
Del Rosario
Bray
Viola
Krebs
Young

That's eight before you get to Maloney, Thompson or Jukich. Bray or even Fisher might be DL candidates, I suppose. But it's still a surfeit, seems to me. Bear in mind, the active roster limit is, I believe, 24.

mth123
04-02-2010, 09:59 PM
Yep. This problem is all around.

Catcher: Denove, Miller, Yarbourough, Castillo

IF: Alonso, Burke, Sutton, Valaika, Cozart, Frazier and eventually Francisco also maybe Eyman and Griffin.

OF: Heisey, Anderson, Terrero, Dorn, maybe Henry

I think some guys will be let go.

mace
04-02-2010, 10:12 PM
FWIW, Eymann and Henry are listed on the Carolina roster.

But yeah, I was going to get to the everyday guys. Something's got to give, it would appear.

OnBaseMachine
04-02-2010, 10:47 PM
According to Matt Klinker, he'll begin the season in Double-A Carolina.

From Redleg Nation:


Two days left in spring training and I received my assignment today: starter for the Carolina Mudcats. I left the complex on Thursday thinking my chances of breaking with Louisville were about 50/50. I felt good about my performance in camp, but with the number of guys still in big league camp fighting for the fifth spot, I had a sinking feeling things were about to flow downhill.

http://redlegnation.com/2010/04/02/james-taylor-was-right-going-to-carolina/

mace
04-02-2010, 10:55 PM
Interesting. This is the kind of thing that reveals the Reds in a very compelling position. I mean, Klinker had five starts at AAA toward the end of last season, and in 29 innings put up a 2.48 ERA with 30 K. And there's no room for him. That's pretty impressive.

redsof72
04-03-2010, 12:08 AM
Starters: Apparently Wood, Chapman, Maloney, Lehr, Lecure. Jukich is not quite ready to go due to inactivity while with St. Louis. Bullpen: Burton, Fisher, Del Rosario, Viola, Reineke, Adkins, Delgado, Baez, still a move or two to make.

Klinker joined in Carolina rotation by D. Thompson, who has looked great according to observers, Buck, not sure of the rest. J. Smith is the closer there.

Lynchburg rotation looks like Boxberger, Fairel, Janke, Partch and one more.

Dayton has Ravin, Sulbaran, Pearl, Villarreal, and Johnson.

Not sure where Horst and Webb are fitting in.

OnBaseMachine
04-03-2010, 12:42 AM
How has Dallas Buck looked this spring, 72?

I'm glad to see the Reds have moved Jordan Smith to the bullpen. His stuff is better suited for that role, IMO. According to C. Trent, Reds officials were impressed with Smith and think he has a chance to be a good major league reliever.

Also glad to see Brad Boxberger starting instead of relieving. While his future role may eventually be in the bullpen, it doesn't hurt to give him a chance at starting.

I'm interested in seeing how Brian Pearl handles a starting role. He was impressive out of the bullpen with Billings last season, as he struckout 43 batters in 28.2 innings (13.5 K/9). I'm looking forward to following Jacob Johnson as well. He pitched well in his pro debut last season and has a nice pitchers frame.

Is Daniel Corcino beginning the season with Dayton? I was hoping they would use him as a starter.

Thanks for all the great info, 72.

OnBaseMachine
04-03-2010, 01:29 AM
Another question for ya, 72. Where will Donnie Joseph start the season?

GOYA
04-03-2010, 01:35 AM
Personally, I'd rather see Jukich as a starter rather than LeCure. He's performed better than Lecure and he has struggled while coming from the pen. But until he gets back into rotation shape I guess it's a moot point.

dougdirt
04-03-2010, 06:11 AM
Still can't believe Klinker is back in AA. I like Justin Lehr's story and all, but I just can't put a 30 something in a rotation over a guy like Klinker who can throw up to 94 who flat out dominated last season.

lollipopcurve
04-03-2010, 09:39 AM
Klinker hasn't proven he can handle a starter's workload. If he can put up good numbers over a full season at AA-AAA, he becomes a legitimate starting prospect, IMO. Until then, he remains unestablished. It's likely starters from AA will eventually be needed at AAA, so let's see if he can lead that staff down there and earn the first callup to Louisville.

mth123
04-03-2010, 09:49 AM
Hard to say how long all these guys will be on the AAA Roster, but this team is loaded in all areas. I think the decisions concerning Louisville's roster may be tougher than those in Cincy.

JaxRed
04-03-2010, 10:57 AM
Wonder if Serrano is the other starter at Lynchburg? Oops just saw Serrano not ready to start season. Wonder why? I saw him pitching a couple weeks ago

mace
04-03-2010, 11:27 AM
Disappointed to see Joe Krebs get stiffed, if that's the case. He has done everything asked of him and deserves to be in Louisville. But there are bound to be some tough calls made there. 72, you didn't mention Bray. Will he start on the DL? Terrell Young? I forgot about Reineke.

I suspect Horst would be in the Carolina rotation. Hope so, at least.

redsof72
04-03-2010, 11:27 AM
Don't know the answers to some of those questions. Serrano...they have the pitchers on a progressive program throughout spring training, step by step, to be ready for opening day. Serrano had some kind of a set-back. Don't think its major.

Corcino to extended. Just too young. Did not come close to making the Dayton staff. Throws hard though. Joseph will be the closer in Dayton. Boxberger is on the Zach Stewart plan. Probably will be a reliever eventually.

Bearing in mind that spring training can be very, very misleading...two guys that garnered a lot of talk were Villarreal and Christiani. Villarreal was a fairly high pick that had an injury...getting velocity back...could get into mid 90s...Christiani will help Joseph close.

Important year for Josh Ravin. Can he build on his progress of '09? Will lead the Dayton rotation.

We got off topic here but there were some questions to answer.

Scrap Irony
04-03-2010, 11:31 AM
Because they're so packed from the majors through AA, Jocketty is in a fine position, as these guys have a real chance to put up monster numbers in both AAA and AA, thereby increasing trade interest. Add these pitchers (both starter and reliever) to the Louisville starting lineup and Jocketty has the goods to make a four or five-for-one deal to bring a true superstar to Cincinnati if the Reds are still competing in July.

Imagine late July. The Reds deal Wood, Cabrera, Francisco, Viola, Maloney, and Heisey for Reyes to shore up both the lineup and the SS position. That's a real possibility, IMO.

mth123
04-03-2010, 11:59 AM
Because they're so packed from the majors through AA, Jocketty is in a fine position, as these guys have a real chance to put up monster numbers in both AAA and AA, thereby increasing trade interest. Add these pitchers (both starter and reliever) to the Louisville starting lineup and Jocketty has the goods to make a four or five-for-one deal to bring a true superstar to Cincinnati if the Reds are still competing in July.

Imagine late July. The Reds deal Wood, Cabrera, Francisco, Viola, Maloney, and Heisey for Reyes to shore up both the lineup and the SS position. That's a real possibility, IMO.

Kind of agree with this (but maybe not for Reyes). He also will have a half a year of Alonso back and swinging healthy. His stock will be back-up by the deadline IMO and if he can't assume the role of "offense fixer" in LF, he can become co-centerpiece with Wood in a trade package.

GIDP
04-03-2010, 03:38 PM
I might have to take a week long vacation to the great town of Louisville this year just to watch all these players.

mace
04-03-2010, 04:07 PM
Very interesting to me that Jacob Johnson is ticketed for Dayton, if that holds true. He won't be 20 until September. This would seem to separate him from that young triumvirate that also includes Tyler Cline and Daniel Tuttle.

As deep as the pitching appears to be in Louisville--and perhaps trickling over into Carolina--it looks fairly threadbare at the lower levels. Most of the clubs have one or two starters that get your attention; three tops. As usual, though, that situation is exacerbated by the injuries. Add Lotzkar, Hildenbrandt, Serrano, Avery and Shunick to the mix, and it looks significantly different.

72 (or Doug), do you know what the plans are for Jordan Hotchkiss? He impressed toward the end of last year. And whether Infante will be starting or in relief?

redsof72
04-03-2010, 05:24 PM
Hotchkiss has been shuffling back and forth between Lynchburg and Dayton. As of now, looks ticketed for Lynchburg. That could change if anything happens to create some trickle down. Infante will be in the Dayton bullpen.

Yes, Johnson pushed himself ahead a bit.

mace
04-04-2010, 02:57 PM
Still can't believe Klinker is back in AA. I like Justin Lehr's story and all, but I just can't put a 30 something in a rotation over a guy like Klinker who can throw up to 94 who flat out dominated last season.

I like Klinker, too, but I can understand the reasoning. For one, Lehr offers a great working model for the young starters. He helped Lecure quite a bit last year, not to mention Bailey. Of course, that's an abstract reason. On the more concrete level, I can see how they'd want to keep Lehr sharp for an emergency promotion. He's a trustworthy kind of guy to have in reserve. Don't forget, Lehr led the International League in wins last year. (Actually, tied with two others, but he had a better ERA and WHIP than either of them.)

The Louisville rotation is already flush with (in addition to Lehr) Wood, Chapman, Maloney and Lecure. Factor in, also, the fact that the organization needs to perform better this year in the win-loss aspect. Klinker will certainly strengthen the Carolina club. With him, Horst, Buck and Daryl Thompson, Carolina could have an extremely nice rotation. And there's Jordan Smith as the closer, with Joe Krebs (one of the most underestimated pitchers in the system, in my view) apparently headed there also. That kind of pitching could offset the probable lack of hitting punch.

redsof72
04-04-2010, 03:07 PM
The Reds think higher of Lehr than many may realize. They signed him to a major league contract for 2010, meaning he is making $400,000 this season. He is considered a strong option for either an emergency start when one is needed or perhaps even more. He is a bigger insurance policy in Triple-A than many teams feel they have.

I think the world of Matt Klinker and am rooting for him as much as anyone, but Matt is not rated among the top 30 prospects in the organization. No way do they prioritize him ahead of a guy they committed to paying $400,000 this season. At least not starting out. Maybe later. Maybe even fairly soon. But not starting out.

dougdirt
04-04-2010, 03:25 PM
The Reds think higher of Lehr than many may realize. They signed him to a major league contract for 2010, meaning he is making $400,000 this season. He is considered a strong option for either an emergency start when one is needed or perhaps even more. He is a bigger insurance policy in Triple-A than many teams feel they have.

I think the world of Matt Klinker and am rooting for him as much as anyone, but Matt is not rated among the top 30 prospects in the organization. No way do they prioritize him ahead of a guy they committed to paying $400,000 this season. At least not starting out. Maybe later. Maybe even fairly soon. But not starting out.

Matt should absolutely be rated among the best 30 prospects. There is absolutely no way anyone can convince me that Pedro Viola is a better prospect than Matt Klinker.

I get that the Reds are higher on Lehr than others are, but I just don't get why. He isn't suited to be more than an emergency starter, which would be fine if we didn't have Wood, Lecure, Chapman, Maloney and Klinker all in the system too. But we do have those guys.

JaxRed
04-04-2010, 03:48 PM
Lehr wasn't on a split contract that pays him less when in the minors? Thought I remembered that. Although I suspected that it was WAY more than a normal split contract.

mace
04-04-2010, 04:29 PM
I get that the Reds are higher on Lehr than others are, but I just don't get why. He isn't suited to be more than an emergency starter, which would be fine if we didn't have Wood, Lecure, Chapman, Maloney and Klinker all in the system too. But we do have those guys.

Between AAA and the majors, Lehr is 53-30. Is anybody else on the list even remotely close to that? Maloney is the closest at 24-19.

I'm not saying that W-L is the tell-all, and I'm not saying that Lehr is a super prospect or anything of the sort. I'm just saying that there's a reason why the Reds have kept him around and ready. The guy knows what he's doing.

In time, all those other guys are likely to pass Lehr in major-league prowess. No argument there. But we're talking about now. We're talking about an organization that's still trying to make up ground in leadership and competence.

dougdirt
04-04-2010, 04:39 PM
Between AAA and the majors, Lehr is 53-30. Is anybody else on the list even remotely close to that? Maloney is the closest at 24-19.

I'm not saying that W-L is the tell-all, and I'm not saying that Lehr is a super prospect or anything of the sort. I'm just saying that there's a reason why the Reds have kept him around and ready. The guy knows what he's doing.

In time, all those other guys are likely to pass Lehr in major-league prowess. No argument there. But we're talking about now. We're talking about an organization that's still trying to make up ground in leadership and competence.

Do you think, or do you think that the Reds think, at the very least that Justin Lehr is a better option to call up than Travis Wood or Aroldis Chapman? If not, and I don't think for a second that the Reds don't think that Wood/Chapman are better options, then why is Lehr keeping someone 7 years younger out of AAA who has better stuff and was flat out dominant last season in his 11 AA/AAA starts? If the Reds didn't have so much depth, I would get having Lehr in the rotation in AAA. But the Reds have a ton of depth there and I fully believe they would rather have at least two of the guys from that rotation in Cincinnati before having to go to Lehr. In that case, it just doesn't make sense to keep him in there to block someone like Klinker who throws what he does and was as dominant as he was last season.

lollipopcurve
04-04-2010, 05:19 PM
Klinker's got 37 innings in AA, 29 in AAA and a history of arm problems. I don't see an issue with his continuing his development at AA.

The Reds saw him all spring too. The fact is, he's still behind guys like Lecure, Maloney and Lehr for a reason. He has not established himself as a full-year starter above A ball.

dougdirt
04-04-2010, 05:53 PM
Klinker's got 37 innings in AA, 29 in AAA and a history of arm problems. I don't see an issue with his continuing his development at AA.

The Reds saw him all spring too. The fact is, he's still behind guys like Lecure, Maloney and Lehr for a reason. He has not established himself as a full-year starter above A ball.

The reason is the other guys are on the 40 man roster. Stuff wise, I would easily take Klinker over any of those three. Yeah, he has a limited number of innings above High A. That doesn't mean he isn't a better pitcher though.

mth123
04-04-2010, 07:57 PM
I'm guessing part of the allure of Lehr is the ability to abuse him with a clear conscience. If the Reds fall out of it early, I think they want the option of running Lehr out there after they deal off one or both of Harang and Arroyo. The kids may be hitting their innngs limit by then and Volquez may need to come back slowly. That would be a lot of innings to be soaked up in the last third of the season when everybody is already starting to get a little gassed. I'd much prefer the Reds had a guy like Lehr around for that duty instead of pushing the kids too far, even if it means that a guy like Klinker, who may not be able to crack the top 5 anyway even if he develops and does well, gets pushed back a step.

lollipopcurve
04-04-2010, 07:59 PM
The reason is the other guys are on the 40 man roster. Stuff wise, I would easily take Klinker over any of those three. Yeah, he has a limited number of innings above High A. That doesn't mean he isn't a better pitcher though.

You may be right. In fact, I hope you're right. But he's got to do it for a full year (150+ innings) before I put him in the queue of legit starter prospects.