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fearofpopvol1
04-04-2010, 05:35 PM
Via CTrent on Twitter...

Reds’ Opening Day Lineup:

Dickerson
Cabrera
Votto
Phillips
Rolen
Bruce
Nix
Hernandez
Harang

GADawg
04-04-2010, 05:39 PM
wow, the surprises continue...wouldn't have expected to see Nix in there

Homer Bailey
04-04-2010, 05:50 PM
I'm biting my tongue really, really, really hard right now. I'm in shock right now, but I don't really know why I should be.

TeamBoone
04-04-2010, 05:53 PM
I'm biting my tongue really, really, really hard right now. I'm in shock right now, but I don't really know why I should be.

why?

Will M
04-04-2010, 05:58 PM
i like Nix. i feel he is a perfectly servicable 5th outfielder & pinch hitter.

as a starter in LF against a RHP i would rank him behind Dickerson, Balentien & Francisco.

MrCinatit
04-04-2010, 05:59 PM
Hi, Lance. nice to meet you again. I would like to introduce you to the whipping post. It's not as nearly comfortable nor nice as it finds. Hope you like it, whether you deserve it or not.

mth123
04-04-2010, 06:02 PM
I was one of the bigger proponents of a platoon in CF this year, but even I thought that Stubbs knocked down the door. Kind of surprised he's not in there, but if it means the power guys stick to LF and the two speed guys aren't taking up two OF spots at the same time, I like it.

Now, just need to rearrange the order to get Phillips and Rolen out of the middle and Cabrera down toward the bottom.

reds44
04-04-2010, 06:03 PM
I was surprised, but I guess I shouldn't be. Looks like we'll have a platoon in CF and LF. I hope Francisco gets a couple starts in LF while he's up here, if that is indeed the case.

I have no problem with Dickerson/Stubbs platooning, I'm not sure about Nix getting the majority of ABs in LF, though. I guess all this does is remind me that LF is a problem spot for the Reds.

Homer Bailey
04-04-2010, 06:07 PM
why?


i like Nix. i feel he is a perfectly servicable 5th outfielder & pinch hitter.

as a starter in LF against a RHP i would rank him behind Dickerson, Balentien & Francisco.

That is why. First of all, I don't think he should have made the team, much less be in the opening day lineup.

If this is a sign of things to come, which I fear it is, it is not going to sit well with me that Drew Stubbs is not the Reds starting centerfielder.

I've already been talked off the ledge by a friend that tells me that maybe it's just for one day, so I'll hold off judgement. However, Drew Stubbs has done everything in his power to earn the opening day CF gig, and for this manager to take it away from him infuriates me beyond belief.

Edit: for the record, Laynce Nix has a .277 career OBP. His highest career OBP is .293. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2010 Cincinnati Reds!

BearcatShane
04-04-2010, 06:10 PM
I remember a game last year where I think Laynce Nix homered off of Carpenter twice in a game the Reds lost. I bet thats why Nix is starting.

Will M
04-04-2010, 06:11 PM
I was one of the bigger proponents of a platoon in CF this year, but even I thought that Stubbs knocked down the door. Kind of surprised he's not in there, but if it means the power guys stick to LF and the two speed guys aren't taking up two OF spots at the same time, I like it.

Now, just need to rearrange the order to get Phillips and Rolen out of the middle and Cabrera down toward the bottom.

i totally missed the fact that Dickerson was in CF & not Stubbs. i suspect this is a 'stack the lineup with LH hitters' vs Carpenter.
it may not be that Stubbs will sit against all RH pitchers. it may just be that Carpenter is a lot better than your average RH pitcher and Dusty felt this was a poor matchup for Stubbs. in this case you gotta feel a bit for Nix.
Dusty to Lance: "Son, Chris Dickerson will be platooning with Jonny Gomes in left. You'll be our pinch hitter. The only time you get to start is when we face a Cy Young caliber RH starter"

in this lineup the fact that Nix plays LF over Francisco tells me a couple of things. Walt & Dusty love them some defense. Francisco is AAA bound next Sunday. if he isn't going to start over Nix in the kind of a lineup then he isn't going to get much playing time. send him to AAA to work on his plate discipline & defense.

reds44
04-04-2010, 06:11 PM
I remember a game last year where I think Laynce Nix homered off of Carpenter twice in a game the Reds lost. I bet thats why Nix is starting.
I gurantee you if somebody asks Dusty why it's Nix over Stubbs (or Gomes) he'll tell you that's why. He'll say he's protecting Stubbs from the big stage against a tough righty.

dougdirt
04-04-2010, 06:11 PM
If Drew Stubbs has to platoon this season, it is going to sit very poorly with me. He gets called up last year and plays an above average defensive center field and hits well. He goes into spring training in a competition and OPS'd over 1.000 while leading the team in HR's while his major competition for the spot doesn't OPS .800.

reds44
04-04-2010, 06:13 PM
i totally missed the fact that Dickerson was in CF & not Stubbs. i suspect this is a 'stack the lineup with LH hitters' vs Carpenter.
it may not be that Stubbs will sit against all RH pitchers. it may just be that Carpenter is a lot better than your average RH pitcher and Dusty felt this was a poor matchup for Stubbs. in this case you gotta feel a bit for Nix.
Dusty to Lance: "Son, Chris Dickerson will be platooning with Jonny Gomes in left. You'll be our pinch hitter. The only time you get to start is when we face a Cy Young caliber RH starter"

in this lineup the fact that Nix plays LF over Francisco tells me a couple of things. Walt & Dusty love them some defense. Francisco is AAA bound next Sunday. if he isn't going to start over Nix in the kind of a lineup then he isn't going to get much playing time. send him to AAA to work on his plate discipline & defense.
I think it's pretty clear Francisco will go down in a week, but I don't think Dusty would throw Francisco in there against Carpenter. It's just not the way he handles young pitchers.

Homer Bailey
04-04-2010, 06:13 PM
I remember a game last year where I think Laynce Nix homered off of Carpenter twice in a game the Reds lost. I bet thats why Nix is starting.

Nix is 1 for 7 career against Carp with a home run. I imagine Dusty is using his data-snooping bias and will say Nix has been good against Carp in his career.

Again, if this is for one day, I'll be fine, but I fear this is a sign of the times to come, and that's really bad news if thats the case.

Patrick Bateman
04-04-2010, 06:13 PM
I was surprised, but I guess I shouldn't be. Looks like we'll have a platoon in CF and LF. I hope Francisco gets a couple starts in LF while he's up here, if that is indeed the case.

I have no problem with Dickerson/Stubbs platooning, I'm not sure about Nix getting the majority of ABs in LF, though. I guess all this does is remind me that LF is a problem spot for the Reds.

Dickerson is playing either way. Stubbs is basically being platooned with Nix here. We lose fielding in CF and LF in order to shift Nix's career sub .300 OBP in the line-up.

reds44
04-04-2010, 06:16 PM
If Drew Stubbs has to platoon this season, it is going to sit very poorly with me. He gets called up last year and plays an above average defensive center field and hits well. He goes into spring training in a competition and OPS'd over 1.000 while leading the team in HR's while his major competition for the spot doesn't OPS .800.
And what has Chris Dickerson done to not deserve to play against RHP? His career OPS against RHP is .845 while Stubb's career OPS against RHP is .740.

.845 or .740, and it's not like Dickerson is giving up a lot in CF defensively.

reds44
04-04-2010, 06:17 PM
Dickerson is playing either way. Stubbs is basically being platooned with Nix here. We lose fielding in CF and LF in order to shift Nix's career sub .300 OBP in the line-up.
I'd be playing Dickerson in LF and Stubbs in CF against righties with some Dickerson/Gomes mixed in.

No way Nix should be starting, and I think we can all agree on that.

Degenerate39
04-04-2010, 06:19 PM
No Stubbs or Gomes? What in the world

Homer Bailey
04-04-2010, 06:19 PM
I'd be playing Dickerson in LF and Stubbs in CF against righties with some Dickerson/Gomes mixed in.

No way Nix should be starting, and I think we can all agree on that.

This.

dougdirt
04-04-2010, 06:21 PM
And what has Chris Dickerson done to not deserve to play against RHP? His career OPS against RHP is .845 while Stubb's career OPS against RHP is .740.

.845 or .740, and it's not like Dickerson is giving up a lot in CF defensively.

Well for starters, Stubbs was sat for Nix, not Dickerson. So none of that matters.

But if we are going to get into it, Dickerson has not done anything not to deserve it, but he has clearly been outplayed by Drew Stubbs since the day Stubbs put on a Reds uniform. So if it does indeed work out that Stubbs is platooning with him, despite outplaying him since day 1, it will be very confusing.

reds44
04-04-2010, 06:22 PM
This.
Dusty will say he's protecting Stubbs from a tough right hander, and (as you said) if that's actually what he is doing I can live with him. If Nix is playing everyday against righties though, that's going to be an issues.

membengal
04-04-2010, 06:25 PM
No need to over-react, in my opinion. It's one day. A lot of spotlight on it. Stubbs not having to lead off against Carpenter isn't the worst thing in the world for him to start the season. And you all know whoever plays CF leads off. Let Stubbs drink in the opening day festivities, it's a lllloooooonnnngg season.

dougdirt
04-04-2010, 06:26 PM
No need to over-react, in my opinion. It's one day. A lot of spotlight on it. Stubbs not having to lead off against Carpenter isn't the worst thing in the world for him to start the season. And you all know whoever plays CF leads off. Let Stubbs drink in the opening day festivities, it's a lllloooooonnnngg season.

Surely. If this is the case, I don't think anyone has a problem with it. However if its not the case and its a sign of things to come, which some are concerned about, then its a large problem.

TRF
04-04-2010, 06:28 PM
I 100% agree with NOT starting Stubbs or JF here. Let them absorb the hoopla of opening day. Neither has ever played before a crowd like this.

If the next game sees a RH starter, Gomes should ride the pine again, and we'll likely see the same lineup. When the Reds see a LH, you'll see Stubbs/Gomes.

Thrilled that Dickerson gets the start in CF.

dougdirt
04-04-2010, 06:31 PM
If the next game sees a RH starter, Gomes should ride the pine again, and we'll likely see the same lineup. When the Reds see a LH, you'll see Stubbs/Gomes.



So Stubbs is only going to get 40 starts this year?

kbrake
04-04-2010, 06:32 PM
No need to over-react, in my opinion. It's one day. A lot of spotlight on it. Stubbs not having to lead off against Carpenter isn't the worst thing in the world for him to start the season. And you all know whoever plays CF leads off. Let Stubbs drink in the opening day festivities, it's a lllloooooonnnngg season.

Very well said. Lets wait til Wednesday night to get bent out of shape over lineups.

TheNext44
04-04-2010, 06:34 PM
Darnell McDonald was in last season's opening day lineup. The opening day lineup is not always the lineup a manager plans to use everyday.

This could be a season long plan of a Gomes/Nix/ Stubbs/Dickerson platoon, or it could be that this is the lineup that Dusty wanted in this game and in this game only.

We'll see.

Homer Bailey
04-04-2010, 06:36 PM
Darnell McDonald was in last season's opening day lineup. The opening day lineup is not always the lineup a manager plans to use everyday.

This could be a season long plan of a Gomes/Nix/ Stubbs/Dickerson platoon, or it could be that this is the lineup that Dusty wanted in this game and in this game only.

We'll see.

Because WT was sick. We know WT would have been in there if he wasn't sick, and that was obviously what the manager planned to use every day.

Slyder
04-04-2010, 06:38 PM
Duhhhsty Baker... I'll just leave this be I dont feel like risking warnings.

TheNext44
04-04-2010, 06:46 PM
If I'm a betting man, I'm betting Nix hits a homer, or wins the game or does something awesome on Opening Day. Just kinda the way things seem to work out. :)

flyer85
04-04-2010, 06:50 PM
against Carpenter I have no problem running out the LHs.

flyer85
04-04-2010, 06:52 PM
No Stubbs or Gomes? What in the world
Gomes has never hit well against RHPs, I doubt he is going to start now.

Hoosier Red
04-04-2010, 06:58 PM
If I'm a betting man, I'm betting Nix hits a homer, or wins the game or does something awesome on Opening Day. Just kinda the way things seem to work out. :)

Only if Puffy loathes him.

Homer Bailey
04-04-2010, 06:58 PM
Gomes has never hit well against RHPs, I doubt he is going to start now.

Gomes has a .759 OPS career vs. RHP, while Nix has a .730.

mth123
04-04-2010, 07:09 PM
Gomes has a .759 OPS career vs. RHP, while Nix has a .730.

And even last year when Nix had a mini-breakout, Nix had an .802 in 303 PAs vs. RHP while Gomes went .859 in 203 PAs.

flyer85
04-04-2010, 07:10 PM
Gomes has a .759 OPS career vs. RHP, while Nix has a .730.

Nix is a far superior defender ... and I never said anything about Nix. Someone pointed out that Nix hit two dingers off of Carpenter, which is surely enough for Dusty.

Personally I would go with the younger players because they have upside.

Homer Bailey
04-04-2010, 07:11 PM
Someone pointed out that Nix hit two dingers off of Carpenter, which is surely enough for Dusty.

And I pointed out that he is 1 for 7 lifetime against him, with a home run. But I do agree that is probably Dusty's selective reasoning.

Falls City Beer
04-04-2010, 07:14 PM
Should have the lineup stacked with lefties when facing Carpenter. Makes sense. I can't imagine the Reds winning tomorrow, but stranger things have happened. Nix almost certainly improves the Reds' chances against Carpenter, however marginally.

lollipopcurve
04-04-2010, 07:17 PM
Agree with the lefties vs. Carpenter.

fearofpopvol1
04-04-2010, 07:20 PM
I don't think too many people are disappointed about stacking the lineup with lefties tomorrow for opening day against Carpenter. What folks are concerned with is will the Dusty try to stack the lineup with lefties for every game the Reds face a RHP, even if it means not putting out their best players?

reds44
04-04-2010, 07:21 PM
Here is the Cardinals:
55 Skip Schumaker 2B
13 Brendan Ryan SS
5 Albert Pujols 1B
7 Matt Holliday LF
28 Colby Rasmus CF
47 Ryan Ludwick RF
4 Yadier Molina C
23 David Freese 3B
29 Chris Carpenter RHP

mth123
04-04-2010, 07:22 PM
If Dusty is so concerned about righties against Carpenter (and I can buy that) why in the World are Phillips and Rolen hitting 4, 5?

Homer Bailey
04-04-2010, 07:23 PM
Carp's splits in 2009:


Right / Left AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
vs. Left 326 0 78 16 2 3 20 20 3 66 0 0 .239 .284 .328 .612
vs. Right 365 0 78 13 2 4 28 18 4 78 0 0 .214 .254 .293 .547

Over the last 3 years:


Right / Left AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
vs. Left 361 0 87 18 2 3 23 24 4 69 0 0 .241 .290 .327 .617
vs. Right 412 0 94 15 2 4 33 19 4 85 0 0 .228 .263 .303 .566

About as good against righties as lefties. Nix shouldn't be in the major leagues, much less in the lineup against one of the best pitchers in baseball.

oneupper
04-04-2010, 07:25 PM
Anyone want to review their 2010 Win predictions?

What are the odds on this game anyway? Reds have to be huge underdogs.

Ron Madden
04-04-2010, 07:26 PM
No need to over-react, in my opinion. It's one day. A lot of spotlight on it. Stubbs not having to lead off against Carpenter isn't the worst thing in the world for him to start the season. And you all know whoever plays CF leads off. Let Stubbs drink in the opening day festivities, it's a lllloooooonnnngg season.

Agreed. I have no problem with this lineup vs Carpenter.

Falls City Beer
04-04-2010, 07:29 PM
What folks are concerned with is will the Dusty try to stack the lineup with lefties for every game the Reds face a RHP, even if it means not putting out their best players?

I doubt it.

fearofpopvol1
04-04-2010, 07:30 PM
If Dusty is so concerned about righties against Carpenter (and I can buy that) why in the World are Phillips and Rolen hitting 4, 5?

I think the bias only enters the conversation if it's a younger, unproven player. Which again, could prove to be bad for Stubbs and possible Jay Bruce this season.

fearofpopvol1
04-04-2010, 07:31 PM
I doubt it.

Remains to be seen. Dusty is not exactly the poster child for "change" or "adaptation." The Dusty has a history of this kind of behavior with younger players vs. veterans. Neifi Perez anyone?

reds44
04-04-2010, 07:34 PM
From Fay:


Stat of the day: Chris Dickerson has five hits in 10 ABs against Cardinals starter Chris Carpenter.
Drew Stubbs has one hit in three ABs vs. Carpenter.
And the others vs. Carpenter?
Cabrera: .200 (3-15, 1K)
Votto: .375 (3-8, 3K)
Phillips: .211 (2 doubles, 1 BB, 3K)
Rolen: .273 (Double, 1 BB, 3K)
Bruce: .125 (1-8, triple, 2K)
Nix: .143 (1-7, HR, 2K)
Hernandez: .160 (4-25, double, BB, 4K)
Harang: .077 (1-13, 5K)

Homer Bailey
04-04-2010, 07:34 PM
Anyone want to review their 2010 Win predictions?

What are the odds on this game anyway? Reds have to be huge underdogs.

The line is:

Cards -150
Reds +130

reds77
04-04-2010, 07:39 PM
I love baseball and always get excited about opening day and the start of a new season, but for some reason seeing Dickerson and Nix in the line-up give me this bad feelings of things to come this season--- obviously, I hope I am wrong.

BCubb2003
04-04-2010, 07:43 PM
Now the season has truly begun.

flyer85
04-04-2010, 07:54 PM
i gave up trying to make sense of Dusty a long time ago. I would rather he played Stubbs but I am not going to fret over it

11larkin11
04-04-2010, 07:59 PM
McDonald OD CF in 09, now Nix OD LF in 10. I thought on OD you put your best 8 out there, no matter who the starter?

Tommyjohn25
04-04-2010, 08:31 PM
I think most people need to take a deep breath. We're all excited for tomorrow, I get it, but this is a bit ridiculous. Dusty bashing already? Really? Not only is it out of line, it's teetering on breaking the rules of the forum (for some of you).

Ease up. It's Opening Day eve.

Heath
04-04-2010, 08:33 PM
Now the season has truly begun.

Nothing like a 4 page open rant on a lineup of game 1 of 162.

Now you know why game threads we're originally locked.

Tom Servo
04-04-2010, 08:40 PM
Lance Nix? Very funny guys. April Fools. Next you'll be telling me Darnell McDonald is starting!


Now where's the real lineup?

Redsfan320
04-04-2010, 08:45 PM
I'm irked. Would've preferred Stubbs- Dickerson to Dickerson- Nix.

320

Homer Bailey
04-04-2010, 08:48 PM
Nothing like a 4 page open rant on a lineup of game 1 of 162.

Now you know why game threads we're originally locked.

I think people are most concerned that this is going to be the everyday lineup (at least the "more often than not" lineup), as opening day lineups often are.

Caveat Emperor
04-04-2010, 08:53 PM
I think people are most concerned that this is going to be the everyday lineup (at least the "more often than not" lineup), as opening day lineups often are.

Nix owns a .050 OPS advantage over Stubbs v. RHPs -- and Carpenter is about as tough a RHP as you'll get.

So, just looking at the numbers, it isn't a terrible move. I think it's premature to say "Oh Nooos, Stubbs is now a platoon player..." ;)

Hoosier Red
04-04-2010, 08:59 PM
I'm no doubt giving too much credit to Dusty here, but there is an inherent advantage to starting Nix and having Gomes and Stubbs on the bench.
In the 7th or 8th inning when the spot comes up you KNOW Larussa will bring in a LHRP to face him. Enter Stubbs and/or Gomes and poundage commences. I just hope its not 5-1 bad guys at the time.

Captain Hook
04-04-2010, 09:04 PM
If I'm a betting man, I'm betting Nix hits a homer, or wins the game or does something awesome on Opening Day. Just kinda the way things seem to work out. :)

I wouldn't be completely surprised if Nix goes deep but there is no way he stays in the to win it unless Carpenter is still pitching in the 8th or 9th inning.If Carpenter is still around that late the game will probably be out of reach considering how Harang has looked.So it's not likely that Nix will be the opening day hero.

bucksfan2
04-04-2010, 09:18 PM
A couple years ago Dusty started Hatteberg over Votto using some kind of opening day experience as the reason. I see this as the same thing with Nix and Dickerson. I hope that Stubbs sees the field every day and hope that Nix is nothing more than a 5th outfielder. I don't understand why a guy like Nix gets the start on opening day but Dusty often uses odd logic.

Homer Bailey
04-04-2010, 09:18 PM
Nix owns a .050 OPS advantage over Stubbs v. RHPs -- and Carpenter is about as tough a RHP as you'll get.

So, just looking at the numbers, it isn't a terrible move. I think it's premature to say "Oh Nooos, Stubbs is now a platoon player..." ;)

I'm guessing you are including Drew's minor league numbers? Because I see career MLB stats as follows vs. RHP's:

Nix: .730
Stubbs: .740

Which includes OBP's of:

Nix: .285
Stubbs: .320

TRF
04-04-2010, 09:22 PM
I'm guessing you are including Drew's minor league numbers? Because I see career MLB stats as follows vs. RHP's:

Nix: .730
Stubbs: .740

Which includes OBP's of:

Nix: .285
Stubbs: .320

There is an old saying about stats in September that escapes me at the moment. Seems applicable.

mace
04-04-2010, 09:27 PM
Am I the only one (aside from Dusty) who thinks that this is pretty much the best lineup to put out there? My choice, for the season at large, has always been to platoon Dickerson and Stubbs in center (with Stubbs playing against some right-handers, starting more than half the games) and Gomes and Nix in left.

Look, pretty much everybody acknowledges that the Reds need more power from their outfield. And everybody continues to overlook or ignore the fact that, between them last year, in 651 PA, Gomes and Nix combined for 35 HR, 299 TB and 97 RBI. You wouldn't take that production from left field? And that was with Nix struggling with a neck injury for most of the season.

Golly molly.

RedsManRick
04-04-2010, 09:31 PM
I've decided I can't comment on the lineups. So long as Dusty is around, they aren't going to be logical. I think I've finally come to terms with that.

flyer85
04-04-2010, 09:32 PM
I've decided I can't comment on the lineups. So long as Dusty is around, they aren't going to be logical. I think I've finally come to terms with that.

with Dusty that applies to more than just lineups ... it is what it is.

Spring~Fields
04-04-2010, 09:36 PM
3 Year Splits vs. Right
Cardinals OBP SLG OPS OBP SLG OPS Reds
Schumaker 2B .381 .451 .832 .387 .458 .845 Dickerson CF
Ryan SS .323 .386 .709 .326 .379 .705 Cabrera SS
Pujols 1B .424 .604 1.028 .394 .552 .946 Votto 1B
Holliday LF .404 .577 .981 .310 .410 .720 Phillips 2B
Rasmus CF .332 .451 .783 .340 .427 .767 Rolen 3B
Ludwick RF .357 .535 .892 .320 .528 .848 Bruce RF
Molina C .342 .368 .710 .287 .471 .758 Nix LF
Freese 3B .533 .857 1.390 .322 .383 .705 Hernandez C
Carpenter P .196 .278 .474 .136 .164 .300 Harang P

* Freese very small sample .307 .456 .763 Gomes
.320 .420 .740 Stubbs
.372 .340 .712 Hanigan
.273 .281 .554 Janish
.294 .332 .626 Cairo

Captain Hook
04-04-2010, 09:46 PM
It's funny how most everyone backed off of Dusty a bit this off season and during spring training then, less then 24 hrs before the first pitch on opening day it took only the announcement the Reds lineup to get everyone all stirred up.

I've decided already that I will judge Dusty on wins and losses only.Any frustration caused by lineup construction or in game decision we be taken out on my wife and kids for the betterment of Redszone.

Just kidding.I'll probably complain a bunch but hey!It's opening day.Lets all be happy!

pedro
04-04-2010, 09:50 PM
RHH OPS'd .547 off Carpenter last year.

Aaron Harang has been getting lit up like a pachinko machine.

Just think they wanted to get the best combo of LHH and defense that they could.

It's not a big deal IMO.

Kc61
04-04-2010, 09:52 PM
I don't know if this will work or not, but Dusty is simply shielding Stubbs from a very tough assignment opening day against Carpenter.

Maybe he's being overprotective, but i'm sure this isn't a platoon and I'm sure Stubbs will be out there most games.

The key for tomorrow is whether Harang can keep the ball in the stadium. Let's hope he does.

edabbs44
04-04-2010, 09:55 PM
Not a fan of the lineup but it is only game 1. There isn't much that can derail my enthusiasm for tomorrow.

Falls City Beer
04-04-2010, 10:02 PM
The key for tomorrow is whether Harang can keep the ball in the stadium. Let's hope he does.

Pretty much. We'll know if the Reds have a chance by his second trip through the lineup.

redsmetz
04-04-2010, 10:10 PM
Nix is a far superior defender ... and I never said anything about Nix. Someone pointed out that Nix hit two dingers off of Carpenter, which is surely enough for Dusty.

Personally I would go with the younger players because they have upside.

After I first saw someone mention this, I checked Baseball-Reference and it only shows Nix hitting one homer off of Carpenter in his career.

mth123
04-04-2010, 10:14 PM
Am I the only one (aside from Dusty) who thinks that this is pretty much the best lineup to put out there? My choice, for the season at large, has always been to platoon Dickerson and Stubbs in center (with Stubbs playing against some right-handers, starting more than half the games) and Gomes and Nix in left.

Look, pretty much everybody acknowledges that the Reds need more power from their outfield. And everybody continues to overlook or ignore the fact that, between them last year, in 651 PA, Gomes and Nix combined for 35 HR, 299 TB and 97 RBI. You wouldn't take that production from left field? And that was with Nix struggling with a neck injury for most of the season.

Golly molly.

I've no problem with the players. I was just surprised that Stubbs wasn't starting. Once I realized it was Carpenter it made sense. My problem is having Rolen in a middle of the order spot, Cabrera higher than 7th and Phillips in the middle of the order against a RHP, but I knew those things were going to happen. I'd go Dickerson, Rolen, Votto, Bruce, Nix, Phillips, Cabrera, Hernandez

westofyou
04-04-2010, 10:22 PM
When Orlando Cabrea takes the spot at short for the Reds on opening day it will the 7th straight different starting shortstop for the Reds in 7 opening days. The last time the Reds had a string that equaled this was from 1908 to 1914 when they also had a different shortstop for seven straight seasons.



1908 - Ruiswitt
1909 - Mowrey
1910 - Downey
1911 - Atizer
1912 - Esmond
1913 - Tinker
1914 - Herzog

The current list includes Alex Gonzales two times


2004 - Larkin
2005 - Aurilia
2006 - Lopez
2007 - Gonzales
2008 - Keppinger
2009 - Gonzales
2010 - Cabrea
The winning percentage for that era was .460, the winning percentage of the current run is .466.

gm
04-04-2010, 10:39 PM
A couple years ago Dusty started Hatteberg over Votto using some kind of opening day experience as the reason. I see this as the same thing with Nix and Dickerson.

This^

gm
04-04-2010, 10:46 PM
When Orlando Cabrea takes the spot at short for the Reds on opening day it will the 7th straight different starting shortstop for the Reds in 7 opening days.

Reds fans were so spoiled during the McMillian-Cardenas-Concepion-Larkin era

Any one want to bet whether we'll get another "new" SS next year? Janish?

Ron Madden
04-04-2010, 11:00 PM
I think most people need to take a deep breath. We're all excited for tomorrow, I get it, but this is a bit ridiculous. Dusty bashing already? Really? Not only is it out of line, it's teetering on breaking the rules of the forum (for some of you).

Ease up. It's Opening Day eve.


I think most people in this thread have no problem with the lineup. :confused:

fugowitribe
04-05-2010, 01:17 AM
The fact that you guys are surprised is beyond me......this is the same guy who started Darnell McDonald in CF last year. He was so unheard of, they didn't have his picture on the lineup wall over by the fan zone. Two errors and two unearned runs later, we began 0-1. I hate his microstrategies on Opening Day. You prove yourself to be the best to reap the rewards. Opening Day is such a crapshoot, micromanaging isn't going to pay off very often. This is ridiculous. A kid proves himself to be the CF of the franchise last year, and he's benched. I can maybe see the LF platoon deal, but this isn't our best lineup and we all know it. Opening Day is supposed to be a bit of a "parade" to the guys that are supposed to lead your team.

GAC
04-05-2010, 04:32 AM
I love you people.

And I'm not being sarcastic; but say that in all sincerity. Just reading over this thread it finally hits me that another season of baseball is about to start!!! :thumbup:

Yep. You can tell it's Opening Day when the mods are already warning people to tone down their excessive criticism of Baker's lineups. But reading this discussion makes me realize that this is what being a fan of baseball is all about!

Can't wait to get home form work this afternoon and get into chat!

And I envy those who will be at today's festivities and game. Have fun!

Roy Tucker
04-05-2010, 08:14 AM
Jeff Jones started Opening Day too.

edabbs44
04-05-2010, 08:38 AM
This is from one of the supposedly most advanced FOs in the game. I guess maybe Dusty isn't that far behind the times as some think.


Manager Terry Francona tied up one of the few remaining loose ends to spring training yesterday by saying he would split up the two left-handed hitters in the middle of the lineup - David Ortiz [stats] and J.D. Drew [stats] - with right-handed hitting Adrian Beltre.

Even though Drew is a more dependable and productive hitter than Beltre, such an alignment would force an opposing manager either to burn more relievers or give the Red Sox batters the benefit of the matchup.

“If we swing the bats, whatever names we put out there are OK and if we don’t, people will be saying, ‘Hey, you ought to do this, do that,’ and I’d probably be thinking the same thing,” Francona said before yesterday’s 6-1 exhibition win against the Nationals. “I did like the idea of J.D. batting behind David, but it is just too easy for the other manager to use one left-hander.”

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/red_sox/view.bg?articleid=1244571&srvc=rss

Slyder
04-05-2010, 10:19 AM
In response to the article about Francona: So you again build a lineup based on stuff that MIGHT happen once rather than get your best hitters up as many times as you can? I dont get it. Never have, never will.

membengal
04-05-2010, 10:21 AM
Saw a tweet from C. Trent that Dusty says this is not a platoon in CF, but "more of a Carpenter" thing.

For what it's worth. And I think that might put a few fears to rest for some of the board.

kaldaniels
04-05-2010, 10:23 AM
In response to the article about Francona: So you again build a lineup based on stuff that MIGHT happen once rather than get your best hitters up as many times as you can? I dont get it. Never have, never will.

So you would run the same lineup out there 162 times without taking into context the opposing starting pitcher?

membengal
04-05-2010, 10:26 AM
The exact message from C. Trent via twitter:


ctrent #reds baker says Dickerson in cf is not a platoon it's 'mostly Carpenter'

nate
04-05-2010, 10:26 AM
I think Cabrera batting 2nd is the worst thing about the lineup. But he's a SS so there's no way around it!

:cool:

Spring~Fields
04-05-2010, 10:32 AM
I love you people.

And I'm not being sarcastic; but say that in all sincerity. Just reading over this thread it finally hits me that another season of baseball is about to start!!! :thumbup:

Yep. You can tell it's Opening Day when the mods are already warning people to tone down their excessive criticism of Baker's lineups. But reading this discussion makes me realize that this is what being a fan of baseball is all about!

Can't wait to get home form work this afternoon and get into chat!

And I envy those who will be at today's festivities and game. Have fun!

Joy, happiness, disappointment and chagrin are a part of life that plays itself out in the game of baseball, which can vacillate from lineup to lineup, pitch to pitch, play to play, ending after ending in the eyes of the fan.

If the sounds and voices of baseball were muzzled, baseball would just not be the same, baseball would no longer be baseball.

Now it is nearing time to continue the age old practice and ritual of scrutinizing the umpire! That wide or tight strike zone, that blown call at first, and that, just unbelievable, near miss at home.

Your 2010 Reds are preparing to take the field.

Oh, yeah, I forgot, Dusty looks better in blue, than he does red. :devil:

edabbs44
04-05-2010, 10:43 AM
In response to the article about Francona: So you again build a lineup based on stuff that MIGHT happen once rather than get your best hitters up as many times as you can? I dont get it. Never have, never will.

I really thought it was interesting since Francona has been seen by some as a progressive type manager. And we all know that Theo is light years ahead of everyone else.

Maybe these MLB guys aren't as dumb as some would think.

edabbs44
04-05-2010, 10:44 AM
Saw a tweet from C. Trent that Dusty says this is not a platoon in CF, but "more of a Carpenter" thing.

For what it's worth. And I think that might put a few fears to rest for some of the board.

Yeah, could totally see that happening. Again, it is game 1 of many.

paulrichjr
04-05-2010, 10:46 AM
I think Cabrera batting 2nd is the worst thing about the lineup. But he's a SS so there's no way around it!

:cool:

For some reason the way you said this made me laugh out loud. Thanks.

_Sir_Charles_
04-05-2010, 11:15 AM
Actually, I think the lineup kinda makes sense. Dickerson's hit well off Carpenter. Therefore he gets the nod over Stubbs in center. For left, they have either Nix or Gomes (I doubt they want Stubbs in left). Since they both hit Carpenter about the same way...they choose to go with defense in left. Hence Nix. Seems kinda obvious to me (once I found out about Dickerson's success thus far vs. Carpenter).

It also seems like they want Dickerson to play mainly centerfield when he is in there. And I TOTALLY agree with THAT call.

RedsManRick
04-05-2010, 11:21 AM
Actually, I think the lineup kinda makes sense. Dickerson's hit well off Carpenter. Therefore he gets the nod over Stubbs in center. For left, they have either Nix or Gomes (I doubt they want Stubbs in left).

If Stubbs were in the lineup, a decision made for his bat, he'd be in CF and Dickerson in LF.
[/QUOTE]

The question came down to Dickerson/Stubbs or Nix/Dickerson, and they chose the latter.

Frankly, I'm not sure the difference is very big either way. I think the defense is likely close to a push. Nix is a fine defender and Dickerson didn't adjust terribly well in LF, though he'll be a plus there in the long run -- and Dickerson is a very good CF.

So Dusty decided to sit Stubbs vs. an extremely tough RH pitcher. Personally, I'd rather see Stubbs get the experience, just drop him in the order. But if you're playing for today, it's not the worst decision.

klw
04-05-2010, 11:23 AM
Well they could have had Dickerson in LF, Stubbs in CF. Stubbs is 1-3 against Carpenter which is a small sample but everybody here is a small sample including Nix's 1 for 7.

Slyder
04-05-2010, 11:24 AM
So you would run the same lineup out there 162 times without taking into context the opposing starting pitcher?

If the initial article was about the game last night I apologize I didn't realize the Yanks/Red Sox kicked off last night and it was CC on the mound. My opening day doesn't start until today :D.

My whole gripe is when you have (insert average pitcher here) out there and you put someone between like Votto and Dunn (for example) because you're afraid of what might happen in the 8th inning is stupid to me. You're letting minut odds late in the game affect how you setup the rest of the game. But in this occurance you are looking at a tough lefty for at least 2 or 3 trips through the lineup not just once.

_Sir_Charles_
04-05-2010, 11:25 AM
If Stubbs were in the lineup, a decision made for his bat, he'd be in CF and Dickerson in LF.

The question came down to Dickerson/Stubbs or Nix/Dickerson, and they chose the latter.

Frankly, I'm not sure the difference is very big either way. I think the defense is likely close to a push. Nix is a fine defender and Dickerson didn't adjust terribly well in LF, though he'll be a plus there in the long run -- and Dickerson is a very good CF.

So Dusty decided to sit Stubbs vs. an extremely tough RH pitcher. Personally, I'd rather see Stubbs get the experience, just drop him in the order. But if you're playing for today, it's not the worst decision.

If Dickerson & Stubbs were both in the game, I agree...Chris would be in left. But Nix is a very good defender in center too. I like the fact that they're playing Chris in center when he has the opportunity. I'm hoping that the majority of the time he plays that he does so in center. That being said, I think Stubbs has earned the majority of the playing time for center. I don't see the need for a platoon. This should just be a one game thing (as Dusty's comments seem to indicate it is).

blumj
04-05-2010, 12:10 PM
In response to the article about Francona: So you again build a lineup based on stuff that MIGHT happen once rather than get your best hitters up as many times as you can? I dont get it. Never have, never will.

No, but the AL is a little different. It isn't about a PA or 2 in the 7th inning of one game, it's about trying to make it so that as many opponents as possible have to call up fresh arms from AAA by the 3rd game of a 3 game series. That's how you get 4 hour games.

pedro
04-05-2010, 12:17 PM
In response to the article about Francona: So you again build a lineup based on stuff that MIGHT happen once rather than get your best hitters up as many times as you can? I dont get it. Never have, never will.

There is no MIGHT about about it. It WOULD happen, and often.

IslandRed
04-05-2010, 01:21 PM
There is no MIGHT about about it. It WOULD happen, and often.

I can see both sides of this. If they split the lefties, there's a negative runs created impact from giving Beltre more at-bats and Drew fewer, although we're talking an estimated 18 plate appearances each (assuming they would hit back to back either way), which is measurable but not huge. If they don't split them, there's also a negative win-expectancy impact from having the other team's best LOOGY free to face Ortiz and Drew back-to-back in high-leverage situations (and then exit stage left). And like you said, that would be a set-your-watch-by-it pitching strategy for Red Sox opponents.

I haven't seen the specific accounting to figure out which one impacts the Red Sox more, but I'm pretty certain the Red Sox have done it.

jmcclain19
04-05-2010, 02:00 PM
Stubbs saw plenty of tough RHP last fall - and was on a tear in the Cactus League.

Now we're playing for realsies and he needs coddling?

Guy was on fire in Goodyear and is your CF of the future. Time to cut him loose Dusty.

KronoRed
04-05-2010, 03:26 PM
Saw a tweet from C. Trent that Dusty says this is not a platoon in CF, but "more of a Carpenter" thing.


Well that's disappointing.

Caveat Emperor
04-05-2010, 05:53 PM
Stubbs 2-2 off the bench.

That's exactly how you shove it back in a manager's face when you don't get the start.

Spring~Fields
04-06-2010, 12:37 AM
Frankly, I'm not sure the difference is very big either way. I think the defense is likely close to a push. Nix is a fine defender and Dickerson didn't adjust terribly well in LF, though he'll be a plus there in the long run -- and Dickerson is a very good CF.

So Dusty decided to sit Stubbs vs. an extremely tough RH pitcher. Personally, I'd rather see Stubbs get the experience, just drop him in the order. But if you're playing for today, it's not the worst decision.

Wednesday Wainwright and Cueto
Thursday Penny and Arroyo

It will be interesting to see who is playing against the right-handers, Wainwright and Penny.

I have a feeling that Cueto and Arroyo will get roughed up.
Maybe there will be better outcomes than I anticipate.

11larkin11
04-06-2010, 12:52 AM
Wednesday Wainwright and Cueto
Thursday Penny and Arroyo

It will be interesting to see who is playing against the right-handers, Wainwright and Penny.

I have a feeling that Cueto and Arroyo will get roughed up.
Maybe there will be better outcomes than I anticipate.

I have a feeling Wainwright and Penny will get lit up.

Spring~Fields
04-06-2010, 01:16 AM
I have a feeling Wainwright and Penny will get lit up.

That's interesting. I will have to check the results to see how your perceptual and intuitive skills are or if they are just of tumultuous origins. ;)

Will M
04-06-2010, 01:32 AM
The Cards spend $7.5M on Penny and people pencil him in as a solid #3 starter.

If the Reds had spent $7.5M on Penny people would have called for Jocketty to resign.

KronoRed
04-06-2010, 03:10 AM
The Cards spend $7.5M on Penny and people pencil him in as a solid #3 starter.

If the Reds had spent $7.5M on Penny people would have called for Jocketty to resign.

The Reds and Cardinals don't really operate in the same financial arena.