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TRF
04-06-2010, 04:03 PM
So sick of Stubbs threads, I thought I'd start something different. I was against the Orlando Cabrera signing. My thinking was it was a wash based on what the Reds had. His offense + defense wouldn't improve the overall production from the position had the job been Janish's for all of 2010, so why spend the money? Instead the Reds could have bolstered the bench a bit more.

Now Dusty still would likely have batted him 2nd, a huge mistake, but maybe not. Those spots usually go to veteran players and it might have meant Rolen in the two-hole with Janish batting 8th.


thoughts?

wheels
04-06-2010, 04:14 PM
Let's hope he's not as range challenged as he seemed yesterday.

Let's also hope he's not as batspeed challenged as he seemed yesterday.

Or.

Let's hope that he fails so spectacularly, so quickly as to snap Dusty out of it.

Let's also hope that Dusty and Walt have lessons learned from the Willy Patterson fiasco(s).

TheNext44
04-06-2010, 04:16 PM
So sick of Stubbs threads, I thought I'd start something different. I was against the Orlando Cabrera signing. My thinking was it was a wash based on what the Reds had. His offense + defense wouldn't improve the overall production from the position had the job been Janish's for all of 2010, so why spend the money? Instead the Reds could have bolstered the bench a bit more.

Now Dusty still would likely have batted him 2nd, a huge mistake, but maybe not. Those spots usually go to veteran players and it might have meant Rolen in the two-hole with Janish batting 8th.


thoughts?

I didn't mind the signing, as long as the Reds are quick to move OCab to the bench and start Janish if he continues to play defense like he has since the beginning of spring training. OCab is signed to a contract that he would still be underpaid if he was a decent backup.

I considered it a move to bolster the bench, not the starting SS position. His signing means only one of Burke, Cairo, Sutton, Miles et all are on the team at any one time.

_Sir_Charles_
04-06-2010, 04:44 PM
Honestly, I'm not as worried as I used to be about these things. The Reds FO of late has shown an honest dedication towards winning. They've not hesitated to cut loose players who have substantial money owed them. They've attempted to go with the best players regardless of contract (Mike Lincoln seems to go against the grain a bit here...but regardless of the results, he DOES have a very good arm, a bit of patience isn't too much of a stretch). I'm hoping that if Cabrera does indeed struggle at the plate, that they quickly go with Janish. The only advantage Orlando has over Paul is his bat. And that bat has been less than impressive.

Personally, I think if you combine offense & defense together, we'd get better results from Janish. I really don't think it's that close either. I see an aging player with diminishing skills (defensively & offensively) in Cabrera. I see those skills leaving him VERY quickly. Bat speed & lateral quickness are NOT something that get better with age. His bat had better perk up pretty soon here, or Paul better get a shot. I know it's just one real game, but ST wasn't any better.

As for batting order...neither of them have any business anywhere near the #2 hole. 7th or 8th hitters at best, both of them.

Bumstead
04-06-2010, 05:31 PM
I liked the signing of Cabrera and I still do. It put Janish one step from where he belongs. He is a utility IF right now and hopefully Cozart will develop this year and move Janish clear off the team. There is no position on the field that can have a full-time player OPS .600; not if a team wants to win; well, teams can get by with pitchers that OPS .600 but that is it. Janish has not shown any ability to do any better than that at any level. He's 27 years old and unlikely to improve much, if any, at the plate. Time to move on...Doug Flynn/Mick Kelleher...not starting for a winning team, not now; maybe if there is another dead ball era, but not now.

Look at the winning teams in the majors the last 10 years and show me a team that gave a guy 500 AB's at one position with a .600 OPS or lower. 1 game and y'all want to make the team worse...why? Why so over the top on bad Red's players (Janish, Rosales, Dorn, Maloney...etc...).

TRF
04-06-2010, 05:34 PM
Well, defensively, it isn't close. not even remotely close. Cabrera is starting to have fall down range at SS.

Jeter shouldn't bee the SS standard offensively (fantastic) or defensively (not so much). He skews perceptions.

Janish did have a nice ST. Yeah, I hear that means nothing, but he did.

Reds1
04-06-2010, 05:46 PM
It's only been one game, but was very unimpressed with OC yesterday, but I"m hoping he catches fire and his leadership shines. I have to say though, if you bat .200 and play poor defense you won't be able to lead on a new team - it could get a little ugly, but I surely hope not. I liked the signing, but felt Janish didn't get a fair shake in ST. He did well with what little playing time he had. This story is TBC....

WMR
04-06-2010, 06:00 PM
The greatest likelihood is that his defense is as poor as it appears and we will continue to be highly underwhelmed... Your defense generally is what it is and at his age it's trending one way and one way only (and it isn't the direction you want to be heading).

RedsManRick
04-06-2010, 06:04 PM
I think they're probably about dead even in terms of overall value. Janish is a replacement level bat but he's worth 10-15 runs in the field. Meanwhile, I think OCab is worth about 10-15 runs at the dish and is average (replacement level) in the field.

I can understand bringing him in, but I don't think it really makes a difference who's playing.

pedro
04-06-2010, 06:08 PM
I think they're probably about dead even in terms of overall value. He's a replacement level bat but he's worth 10-15 runs in the field. Meanwhile, I think OCab is worth about 10-15 runs at the dish and is average (replacement level) in the field.

I can understand bringing him in, but I don't think it really makes a difference who's playing.

That's kind of my feeling too RMR. I think he was brought b/c there wasn't anyone else other than Janish in the organization ready to even contribute at that level.

Homer Bailey
04-06-2010, 06:14 PM
I was for the acquisition mainly because I think Janish is nowhere near an MLB hitter. Add that to the fact that he HAS to hit 2nd, and I wanted the Reds to go find someone else to get the PA's in the 2 hole. I was under the belief that Cabrera was OK defensively, so I liked the signing. I didn't see the game yesterday, but if it's as bad as it sounds, Cabrera is going to have to hit to provide value. I'm still in the Cabrera camp (maybe mainly because I haven't seen him). I know he is sound defensively, but I do not think Paul Janish is an MLB caliber SS. Just my opinion.

_Sir_Charles_
04-06-2010, 08:10 PM
I think they're probably about dead even in terms of overall value. Janish is a replacement level bat but he's worth 10-15 runs in the field. Meanwhile, I think OCab is worth about 10-15 runs at the dish and is average (replacement level) in the field.

I can understand bringing him in, but I don't think it really makes a difference who's playing.

I agree with this in general, but I'd say Janish is below replacement level with the bat and OCab is below replacement level with the glove. I don't see either of those changing any time soon. So the real variable here is OCab's bat. Is it STILL 10-15 runs above replacement player level? I'm not seeing it.

Spring~Fields
04-06-2010, 08:47 PM
If they are equal, shouldn't they both get about equal playing time? If one has any chance of having any upside or ability to improve would it be Cabrera or Janish?

RED VAN HOT
04-06-2010, 08:55 PM
IIRC, Dusty has stated that a critical need is to get better production out of the first two slots in the batting order. Personally, I was happy with Janish at SS and batting 8th. That would still leave a problem, however, at the top of the order. The only solutions apparent involved some combination of Stubbs, Dickerson, Phillips, and perhaps, Heisey. Any of those solutions, however, would sacrifice power to some extent. I believe the Reds wanted to keep Phillips in the heart of the order and get power out of the LF spot.

I don't think anyone believed that OC would provide better defense than PJ. I do believe they saw enough offense to put him into the two slot. That would leave the heart of the order intact. If they get neither two slot worthy offense or league average defense, I don't think the Reds will show much patience. I see OC getting 100 AB's. By early May, we should have a good idea if the defense is adequate and the top of the order strategy is working.

SirFelixCat
04-06-2010, 09:04 PM
Let's hope he's not as range challenged as he seemed yesterday.

Let's also hope he's not as batspeed challenged as he seemed yesterday.

Or.

Let's hope that he fails so spectacularly, so quickly as to snap Dusty out of it.

Let's also hope that Dusty and Walt have lessons learned from the Willy Patterson fiasco(s).

:goodposting: and I couldn't have written out my thoughts/feelings any clearer.

Captain Hook
04-06-2010, 09:19 PM
My problem with OC is that when he goes 0-5 like he did yesterday he really hurts the team.Probably more then any other player and I think yesterday was a good example.Janish will certainly have his share of bad days at the plate when given the chance but when he does it's likely that he'll save the team a run or two as the case would have been on opening day.

Even if that's not enough then the extra strain put on the pitching staff should tip the scale in the favor of Yanish.With a very young(and unlike OCab probably getting younger)pitching staff it would be ideal to limit their innings and high stress pitches.No better way to do that then to have stellar D at SS imo.

I hate to say it but I think that Cabrera could end up being the Taveras of 09 and Paterson of 08 in disguise at SS.

Blitz Dorsey
04-06-2010, 10:12 PM
IMO, Dusty would have definitely batted Janish in the 2 hole, Janish would have batted about .220 at best and that offensive black hole is the last thing this team needs. The Reds are already going to have a tough enough time scoring runs on a consistent basis. Six runs on Opening Day was good, but it won't be the norm.

Bumstead
04-06-2010, 10:13 PM
And yet, Janish is Willy Taveras when he hits his best...watch more than 1 game before driving the dagger through Cabrera...amazing.

fearofpopvol1
04-06-2010, 10:24 PM
IIRC, Dusty has stated that a critical need is to get better production out of the first two slots in the batting order.

It's blasphemy too. It's quite simple...you adjust the line-up Dusty! OCab should never bat higher than 7. Janish shouldn't bat higher than 8.

westofyou
04-06-2010, 10:54 PM
It's blasphemy too. It's quite simple...you adjust the line-up Dusty! OCab should never bat higher than 7. Janish shouldn't bat higher than 8.

Yet OC has been in the 1st or the 2nd slot 50% of his career.

Including significant time in LA, CWS, Oak and Minn the past 4 seasons. The fact is MLB managers prefer bat control and a semblance of speed in the 2nd slot, it's never changed in my lifetime and I've been watching for 40 years now, however I bat Adam Dunn in the 2nd slot on my Strat team, I'll let ya know how that works out.

Captain Hook
04-06-2010, 11:00 PM
And yet, Janish is Willy Taveras when he hits his best...watch more than 1 game before driving the dagger through Cabrera...amazing.

Actually Janish just hits like Willy.There is reason to believe that Cabrera won't but if he doesn't hit well over the .250 that I think Yanish could and get on base at a higher clip then he did last year then he shouldn't be playing every day.IMO Cabrera doesn't deserver more then a month or two to prove he can do that.Sorry but a sub .200 BA in spring training and an 0-5 start has many growing more and more concerned.However I do agree he does deserve some time but the clock's ticking.

TheNext44
04-06-2010, 11:16 PM
Yet OC has been in the 1st or the 2nd slot 50% of his career.

Including significant time in LA, CWS, Oak and Minn the past 4 seasons. The fact is MLB managers prefer bat control and a semblance of speed in the 2nd slot, it's never changed in my lifetime and I've been watching for 40 years now, however I bat Adam Dunn in the 2nd slot on my Strat team, I'll let ya know how that works out.

It's funny, for decades managers put hitters just like Cabrera in the two spot in the lineup and were very successful. They are still doing it, still successful, and people are lighting their hair on fire over it.

I do think that you want higher OBP guys at the top of the lineup, but having a guy with good bat control can also be just as effective. It's not like batting the pitcher cleanup, or playing the catcher at SS.

OnBaseMachine
04-06-2010, 11:24 PM
What concerns me the most about Cabrera is his defense. UZR had him as a -15.3 defender last season, and from what I saw yesterday, his range is well below average at this point in his career. He looked Jeff Keppinger-esque out there yesterday. With so many young pitchers in the rotation, the last thing the Reds need is a range challenged shortstop.

Captain Hook
04-06-2010, 11:28 PM
It's funny, for decades managers put hitters just like Cabrera in the two spot in the lineup and were very successful. They are still doing it, still successful, and people are lighting their hair on fire over it.

I do think that you want higher OBP guys at the top of the lineup, but having a guy with good bat control can also be just as effective. It's not like batting the pitcher cleanup, or playing the catcher at SS.

I did see yesterday during the game that Cabrera led all of baseball in advancing runners from 1st to 3rd.That could be useful in a lineup that has Votto hitting behind him.I hope it works out that way with Stubbs and OC giving the Reds offense that spark they've been missing for a long time.

Captain Hook
04-06-2010, 11:29 PM
I did see yesterday during the game that Cabrera led all of baseball in advancing runners from 1st to 3rd last year.That could be useful in a lineup that has Votto hitting behind him.I hope it works out that way with Stubbs and OC giving the Reds offense that spark they've been missing for a long time.

fearofpopvol1
04-07-2010, 01:02 AM
Yet OC has been in the 1st or the 2nd slot 50% of his career.

Including significant time in LA, CWS, Oak and Minn the past 4 seasons. The fact is MLB managers prefer bat control and a semblance of speed in the 2nd slot, it's never changed in my lifetime and I've been watching for 40 years now, however I bat Adam Dunn in the 2nd slot on my Strat team, I'll let ya know how that works out.

I think it makes total sense if the OBP is there, but with him, it's just not. I'd much rather see Scott Rolen in the 2 spot.

Ron Madden
04-07-2010, 04:59 AM
I'm just glad that Cabrera only signed a one year deal.

From what I've seen he has no more range than Aurillia, Keppenger or Gonzales had whenever they stood between 2nd and 3rd base.

mth123
04-07-2010, 06:38 AM
Not really happy with either. This team really needed to go out and get another young up and coming option. I'm a huge skeptic where Janish is concerned. I'd love to see him hit but I don't think he ever will hit enough to be more than an insurance policy (best stashed at AAA).

Cabrera is another in a long line of reds' players that were good a few years ago for other teams. Hernandez and to a lesser extent Rolen fit that description as well.

A young option would help now and in the future. I think counting on Cozart as the only option down the line is foolish as well. I'm hopeful about him, but another option seems wise and we know it won't be Cabrera. Maybe Rojas will continue to develop with the bat.

bucksfan2
04-07-2010, 08:51 AM
I agree with this in general, but I'd say Janish is below replacement level with the bat and OCab is below replacement level with the glove. I don't see either of those changing any time soon. So the real variable here is OCab's bat. Is it STILL 10-15 runs above replacement player level? I'm not seeing it.

At this point I would peg Janish as one of the 5 worst offensive SS. I don't know where replacement level draws the line but I don't think I would rank Janish offensive game as replacement level.

I would be perfectly fine with Janish playing SS if I had a great offensive team. If this were an offensive juggernaut then playing Janish at SS and hitting him 8th (or 9th in the AL) would make sense. But on a team that is offensively challenged Cabrera's offensive upgrade is important.

As for the one ball that he missed I didn't have a great angle. It looked like the ball was out of his reach but it also looked like it had a tremendous amount of top spin on it. I also give him a little of a pass because this is the first game I can recall that he has played at GABP. If his defense is bad I think the Reds will make a shift away from OCAB and move more to Janish.

nate
04-07-2010, 09:03 AM
It's funny, for decades managers put hitters just like Cabrera in the two spot in the lineup and were very successful. They are still doing it, still successful, and people are lighting their hair on fire over it.

Are they successful because a cadre of Cabreras bat second or are the successful because of something else?

I'm not really seeing a "success" correlation here. Besides, if all managers do it, wouldn't putting a "good hitter" in the 2 spot cancel out the opposition's "SS bats second" gambit?


I do think that you want higher OBP guys at the top of the lineup, but having a guy with good bat control can also be just as effective. It's not like batting the pitcher cleanup, or playing the catcher at SS.

No, that's the opposite extreme. This particular tactic is one steeped in tradition.

Scrap Irony
04-07-2010, 09:10 AM
Cabrera, IMO, showed a decent bat yesterday, just unlucky. He hit a couple on the screws, but right at someone. Defensively, he looked really, really slow.

He has some value, in that he's a replacement level player at a position that's difficult to man. Janish can't hit, has never hit, and likely won't hit now, so depending on him strikes me as a ridiculous notion. Though his glove is supremely awesome, he'd an offensive black hole.

TRF
04-07-2010, 09:34 AM
If Janish posted a .340 OBP. is he still an offensive black hole? He was a 10 hits away from that. His OBP was 85 points higher than his batting average, and his BABIP was .247. Assuming he's not a great hitter, and his normal BABIP is .270, wouldn't that suggest he's a guy that can find 1st, and is a great defender?

I'm certainly not suggesting he's Barry Larkin, but I think his defense is what this rotation needs.

IslandRed
04-07-2010, 09:57 AM
If Janish posted a .340 OBP. is he still an offensive black hole? He was a 10 hits away from that. His OBP was 85 points higher than his batting average, and his BABIP was .247. Assuming he's not a great hitter, and his normal BABIP is .270, wouldn't that suggest he's a guy that can find 1st, and is a great defender?

I'm certainly not suggesting he's Barry Larkin, but I think his defense is what this rotation needs.

A .340 OBP would be great. But his OBP for the last 2.5 years -- all of his nearly-1000 plate appearances in Louisville and Cincinnati -- is .288. He has patience, but the low BABIPs and batting averages aren't bad luck. He just can't hit.

But even without betting on improvement at the plate, it's still an open question of whether his defense gives him as much or more overall value than Cabrera. Guess we'll see.

nate
04-07-2010, 10:30 AM
A .340 OBP would be great. But his OBP for the last 2.5 years -- all of his nearly-1000 plate appearances in Louisville and Cincinnati -- is .288. He has patience, but the low BABIPs and batting averages aren't bad luck. He just can't hit.

But even without betting on improvement at the plate, it's still an open question of whether his defense gives him as much or more overall value than Cabrera. Guess we'll see.

Well...I'm guessing we won't see unless Cabrera gets injured.

westofyou
04-07-2010, 10:32 AM
Compared to Janish Pokey was a pretty nice hitter. Put it this way, Janish would love to have Pokey's career.

Falls City Beer
04-07-2010, 10:46 AM
Two seasons ago in an offense-heavy park in Chicago, Cabrera OPSed .700. If Janish can't OPS .700, then of course, he has no business in the majors, but let's not pretend like Cabrera's some offensive titan. You'll not find many weaker sticks in the majors.

It's still Jocketty's blind spot: going after a name when a comparable player exists on his 40 man.

Scrap Irony
04-07-2010, 12:16 PM
Agreed on Jocketty's main weakness, FCB. He continually depends on veteran players and can ignore unproven players that may provide the same amount of production at a fraction of the cost.

I just don't think Janish is that player.

pedro
04-07-2010, 12:32 PM
I'm not a big fan of Cabrera but the Reds are horribly thin at SS and even if one thinks that Janish will hit well enough to carry his glove where would the Reds be if he got hurt?

As Cabrera only got a 2 million dollar, one year contract, it's not that big a problem. If he tanks, he can be benched (although whether that would happen is certainly debatable.). I tend to think that Dusty is more likely to bench Cabrera if his defense becomes a liability before he would over his bat.

TheNext44
04-07-2010, 12:38 PM
I'm not a big fan of Cabrera but the Reds are horribly thin at SS and even if one thinks that Janish will hit well enough to carry his glove where would the Reds be if he got hurt?

As Cabrera only got a 2 million dollar, one year contract, it's not that big a problem. If he tanks, he can be benched (although whether that would happen is certainly debatable.). I tend to think that Dusty is more likely to bench Cabrera if his defense becomes a liability before he would over his bat.

At the press conference introducing Cabrera, Jocketty said that he would be the Reds starting SS, but that Janish would be getting plenty of playing time and that they have not given up on Janish as a possible starting SS.

So I think you are correct, the Reds are starting Cabrera for now, but will move to Janish if they feel Cabrera is not doing the job.

Bumstead
04-07-2010, 12:39 PM
Two seasons ago in an offense-heavy park in Chicago, Cabrera OPSed .700. If Janish can't OPS .700, then of course, he has no business in the majors, but let's not pretend like Cabrera's some offensive titan. You'll not find many weaker sticks in the majors.

It's still Jocketty's blind spot: going after a name when a comparable player exists on his 40 man.

The comparable player on the 40-man roster of the Cincinnati Reds doesn't exist. Janish is horrible as a hitter and O-Cab is just that much better even though he does have a relatively weak bat. The solution is to get through the season with Cabrera and hope Cozart develops; otherwise, the Reds better start looking outside the organization because they can't win with Janish playing on a daily basis.

Bum

Falls City Beer
04-07-2010, 12:43 PM
The comparable player on the 40-man roster of the Cincinnati Reds doesn't exist. Janish is horrible as a hitter and O-Cab is just that much better even though he does have a relatively weak bat. The solution is to get through the season with Cabrera and hope Cozart develops; otherwise, the Reds better start looking outside the organization because they can't win with Janish playing on a daily basis.

Bum

I'd rank Cabrera's bat among the bottom 3-5% of all major league hitters. I'll be stunned if he OPS over .725 this season. That's the very picture of fungible. The guy's actually a pretty big step down from Gonzalez, which is saying something.

TheNext44
04-07-2010, 12:43 PM
Are they successful because a cadre of Cabreras bat second or are the successful because of something else?

I'm not really seeing a "success" correlation here. Besides, if all managers do it, wouldn't putting a "good hitter" in the 2 spot cancel out the opposition's "SS bats second" gambit?



No, that's the opposite extreme. This particular tactic is one steeped in tradition.

I meant successful in that batting a guy with a good eye and good bat control is about as productive as batting a guy without that, who has a higher OBP.

But then again, I really don't think it matters much where guys bat in the lineup, which is mostly why I believe the above.

Bumstead
04-07-2010, 12:54 PM
I'd rank Cabrera's bat among the bottom 3-5% of all major league hitters. I'll be stunned if he OPS over .725 this season. That's the very picture of fungible. The guy's actually a pretty big step down from Gonzalez, which is saying something.

I don't disagree that Cabrera will probably OPS between 700 and 725, but the step down to Janish is huge...I don't know, I read this board and it seems the only way to make some of the ORG crew happy is to have this lineup out there and lose 120 games:

C: Hanigan
1B: Votto
2B: Phillips
3B: Rolen
SS: Janish
LF: Dorn
CF: Heisey
RF: Gomes?

I mean...the over-reactions to bad players/prospects is pretty high volume. The Reds are getting better but they can't get to the top all at once; it's going to take some time.

Bum

Falls City Beer
04-07-2010, 12:57 PM
I don't disagree that Cabrera will probably OPS between 700 and 725, but the step down to Janish is huge...I don't know, I read this board and it seems the only way to make some of the ORG crew happy is to have this lineup out there and lose 120 games:

C: Hanigan
1B: Votto
2B: Phillips
3B: Rolen
SS: Janish
LF: Dorn
CF: Heisey
RF: Gomes?

I mean...the over-reactions to bad players/prospects is pretty high volume. The Reds are getting better but they can't get to the top all at once; it's going to take some time.

Bum

Actually, I'm not at all a bedwetter when it comes to this offense. I like its present, and I really like its future. I don't think--I know--Janish is the better defender; and with this pitching staff (low K's, extremely hittable), they need every last ounce of help they can get in the field.

TRF
04-07-2010, 12:57 PM
OCab's bat will be helped somewhat by GABP, but only his power. His speed isn't what it was so don't expect to see his stretching any singles into doubles.

And if his defense is as bas as reported, ugh.

I did want Janish to be the starter at SS for his defense alone. his bat last year was truly odd. A disproportionate amount of doubles. Almost half his hits were doubles. The problem was, he needed about 20 more hits. but he's managed 20+ doubles in '06, '07, '08 and '09. So there is some ability there. He seems like a 50+ BB guy over a full season of AB's.

But the Reds were/are very thin at the position. Maybe Cozart will be ready mid season. Then again, maybe Janish can add 20 hits. Its not impossible. His skillset can still improve while physically Cabrera is on the wrong side of 35.

TRF
04-07-2010, 12:59 PM
I don't disagree that Cabrera will probably OPS between 700 and 725, but the step down to Janish is huge...I don't know, I read this board and it seems the only way to make some of the ORG crew happy is to have this lineup out there and lose 120 games:

C: Hanigan
1B: Votto
2B: Phillips
3B: Rolen
SS: Janish
LF: Dorn
CF: Heisey
RF: Gomes?

I mean...the over-reactions to bad players/prospects is pretty high volume. The Reds are getting better but they can't get to the top all at once; it's going to take some time.

Bum

Please. Name one poster that wants that. Has anyone ever suggested Bruce sit? Yeah, I'd take Heisey over Stubbs. He's got a much better bat.

But your supposed RZ lineup is, well, fictitious. at best.

_Sir_Charles_
04-07-2010, 01:04 PM
At this point I would peg Janish as one of the 5 worst offensive SS. I don't know where replacement level draws the line but I don't think I would rank Janish offensive game as replacement level.

I would be perfectly fine with Janish playing SS if I had a great offensive team. If this were an offensive juggernaut then playing Janish at SS and hitting him 8th (or 9th in the AL) would make sense. But on a team that is offensively challenged Cabrera's offensive upgrade is important.


I agree with this, but I'd look to alter it in a different way. If the team is offensively challenged as you say (which I don't agree with) then instead of pulling Janish out...you work on improving one of the other slots. Improve our LF'er. Improve our C. Improve our 3b. Yes, yes...I know. Rolen is a gold glover and a borderline HoF'er. But his skills are diminishing too, just like Cabrera.

It's a balancing act. You bring in a more offensive minded SS but lose defense and hence hurt the young pitching. The problem here is this...there are very few shortstops out there available. And even fewer that fit our needs. So I'd say we stick with the well above average defense there and work to improve our offensive output in other areas. Batting Janish near the bottom of the order would be a start. :O)

nate
04-07-2010, 01:12 PM
I meant successful in that batting a guy with a good eye and good bat control is about as productive as batting a guy without that, who has a higher OBP.

I don't think the "without" player exists. So in that case, yes.


But then again, I really don't think it matters much where guys bat in the lineup, which is mostly why I believe the above.

I don't think it matters when all the players in your lineup have similar production.

nate
04-07-2010, 01:13 PM
Please. Name one poster that wants that. Has anyone ever suggested Bruce sit? Yeah, I'd take Heisey over Stubbs. He's got a much better bat.

But your supposed RZ lineup is, well, fictitious. at best.

Word.

_Sir_Charles_
04-07-2010, 01:15 PM
OCab's bat will be helped somewhat by GABP, but only his power. His speed isn't what it was so don't expect to see his stretching any singles into doubles.

And if his defense is as bas as reported, ugh.

I did want Janish to be the starter at SS for his defense alone. his bat last year was truly odd. A disproportionate amount of doubles. Almost half his hits were doubles. The problem was, he needed about 20 more hits. but he's managed 20+ doubles in '06, '07, '08 and '09. So there is some ability there. He seems like a 50+ BB guy over a full season of AB's.

But the Reds were/are very thin at the position. Maybe Cozart will be ready mid season. Then again, maybe Janish can add 20 hits. Its not impossible. His skillset can still improve while physically Cabrera is on the wrong side of 35.

I agree with this 100%. People are so entrenched in the fact that Janish can't improve I just don't get it. Everyone always says that when a player moves up from AA to AAA there's an adjustment period. You'll struggle for a while and then gradually improve as you get more comfortable. Regular AB's will do that. I think the same holds true for Paul. I'm not suggesting he'll become a great hitter...or even an above average hitter. But with his patience...I can see him getting to average.

TheNext44
04-07-2010, 01:19 PM
I don't think it matters when all the players in your lineup have similar production.

very witty, as usual. :)

Bumstead
04-07-2010, 01:27 PM
Please. Name one poster that wants that. Has anyone ever suggested Bruce sit? Yeah, I'd take Heisey over Stubbs. He's got a much better bat.

But your supposed RZ lineup is, well, fictitious. at best.

I'm not over-reacting to reading these over-reactive posts anymore than any of y'all are over-reacting to 1 game...It's just too bad the Reds had a day off!

Heisey does not have a better bat than Stubbs. Stubbs has proven to this point to have a very good bat in CF at the MLB level. Heisey has proven to be a good minor league baseball player; until he proves it at the MLB level and outdoes Stubbs at the MLB level your statement is, well, fictitious and based on pure bias at best.

There is no basis or anything to rely upon to suggest that Janish will ever get better as a hitter, so to suggest that he can add 20 hits in 240-ish AB's (his approximate AB's from last season) just doesn't wash. Janish's BABIP was not abnormal for him; he's just that bad. Cabrera is a reasonable stop-gap while Cozart develops or the Reds trade for someone else. Janish is a reasonable utility IF for now. Omar Vizquel in his late 30's makes Janish look silly offensively...:eek:

Bum

TheNext44
04-07-2010, 01:29 PM
I don't think the "without" player exists. So in that case, yes.


Surely there are guys with high OBP who don't have good bat control. Most of them are middle of the lineup guys, but they definitely exist.

I just think that the overall philosophy of having a speedy high OBP guy leadoff, a guy who is good at getting the leadoff hitter into scoring position second, your best overall hitter third, and power guys after that is just as productive a philosophy as putting your putting your best OBP guys at the top of the lineup.

Theoretically, the latter should net a team a handful more runs over a season, but there are way too many variables that can't be controlled that really make it a toss up over any given season.

bucksfan2
04-07-2010, 01:40 PM
I agree with this, but I'd look to alter it in a different way. If the team is offensively challenged as you say (which I don't agree with) then instead of pulling Janish out...you work on improving one of the other slots. Improve our LF'er. Improve our C. Improve our 3b. Yes, yes...I know. Rolen is a gold glover and a borderline HoF'er. But his skills are diminishing too, just like Cabrera.

Don't get me wrong this looks good on paper. Improve C, LF, SS and even 3B make sense because they were weaknesses of the Reds. But the reality is its much more difficult. Who are they going to get to improve C and LF when you take finances into consideration? $7M for Damon? $10M for Beltre? $15.5/2 years for Cameron?

I think the Cabrera was the most financially prudent as well as solid baseball move the Reds could have made over the off season. They needed depth at SS and Cabrera at worst adds that. If his defense continues to suffer I don't think the Reds will hesitate to give Janish more PT. I didn't think I would even say this but I think Janish's offensive prowess is beginning to get a little out of control here on RZ.

nate
04-07-2010, 01:46 PM
very witty, as usual. :)

But that was actually serious. When you have great, average or bad players up and down your lineup, it doesn't matter. However, when you have maybe one great player, a couple good players, some unknowns and unsavory knowns, there are a number of configurations that would improve the bottom line.

Chip R
04-07-2010, 01:47 PM
I didn't think I would even say this but I think Janish's offensive prowess is beginning to get a little out of control here on RZ.


Almost getting to be Coombsish in comparison.

nate
04-07-2010, 01:48 PM
Surely there are guys with high OBP who don't have good bat control. Most of them are middle of the lineup guys, but they definitely exist.

I was saying there isn't a hitter with a high OBP that doesn't have a good eye and good bat control. Adam Dunn certainly has a good eye but isn't a contact dude. I can't think of any guy who has a poor eye, poor bat control and a high OBP.


I just think that the overall philosophy of having a speedy high OBP guy leadoff, a guy who is good at getting the leadoff hitter into scoring position second, your best overall hitter third, and power guys after that is just as productive a philosophy as putting your putting your best OBP guys at the top of the lineup.

And that would be great if the Reds would put a "speedy high OBP guy" (Chris Dickerson) in the leadoff spot. The "guy who is good at getting the leadoff hitter into scoring position second" is Scott Rolen, not OCab.

At least Dusty gets the three guy right!


Theoretically, the latter should net a team a handful more runs over a season, but there are way too many variables that can't be controlled that really make it a toss up over any given season.

It's not like the variables lessen with the former.

westofyou
04-07-2010, 01:52 PM
Trying to improve hitting through the catcher is as hard as improving hitting at SS, and likely a greater impact on a young staff.

Put it this way, with the young latin starters this team has is there really all that wonder about the latin guys in the key defensive positions during their development? I mean who is a more likely mentor to them Janish or OC, Hernandez or Hanigan or mystery slamming catcher?

My take is the Reds don't see Janish as the answer at this point and they looked to fill his shoes with a guy that might end up helping them more in the coming years than this year. The same can be said for Hernadez and Hanigan.

Both positions are traditionally defensive position manned more often than not by older guys when a team can't fill them adequetly in-house... which IMO is what we're seeing right now with the Reds

TRF
04-07-2010, 02:11 PM
I'm not over-reacting to reading these over-reactive posts anymore than any of y'all are over-reacting to 1 game...It's just too bad the Reds had a day off!

Heisey does not have a better bat than Stubbs. Stubbs has proven to this point to have a very good bat in CF at the MLB level. Heisey has proven to be a good minor league baseball player; until he proves it at the MLB level and outdoes Stubbs at the MLB level your statement is, well, fictitious and based on pure bias at best.

There is no basis or anything to rely upon to suggest that Janish will ever get better as a hitter, so to suggest that he can add 20 hits in 240-ish AB's (his approximate AB's from last season) just doesn't wash. Janish's BABIP was not abnormal for him; he's just that bad. Cabrera is a reasonable stop-gap while Cozart develops or the Reds trade for someone else. Janish is a reasonable utility IF for now. Omar Vizquel in his late 30's makes Janish look silly offensively...:eek:

Bum

I'd like to keep this about OCab and Janish.. but just to refute a little of your argument...

Drew Stubbs career Minor League OPS .765 and trended down as he moved up
Chris Heisey career Minor League OPS .830 and trended up until AAA where he posted a .789 OPS

You are basing this on 180 MLB AB's. So I'd guess Stubbs is a better bat than Heywood too. After all He has only one MLB HR.

Back on topic. Developing later in a career is very fashionable now. I call it the Ryan Ludwick Syndrome. Players seem to be coming into their own at a later age. Garret Jone in PIT, Nelson Cruz etc. It's all the rage. You could really call it the Ryan Freel Effect (which now that i think of it is a nice name for a band). Sometime you have to value what a player does without ripping him for what he doesn't. Yeah I should take my own advice.

Bumstead
04-07-2010, 02:25 PM
I'd like to keep this about OCab and Janish.. but just to refute a little of your argument...

Drew Stubbs career Minor League OPS .765 and trended down as he moved up
Chris Heisey career Minor League OPS .830 and trended up until AAA where he posted a .789 OPS

You are basing this on 180 MLB AB's. So I'd guess Stubbs is a better bat than Heywood too. After all He has only one MLB HR.

Back on topic. Improvement later in a career is very fashionable now. I call it the Ryan Ludwick Syndrome. Players seem to be coming into their own at a later age. Garret Jone in PIT, Nelson Cruz etc. It's all the rage. You could really call it the Ryan Freel Effect (which now that i think of it is a nice name for a band). Sometime you have to value what a player does without ripping him for what he doesn't. Yeah I should take my own advice.

Heywood? Unfamiliar...last note on the OF's: sometimes one has to realize that minor league statistics don't necessarily translate one way or the other to MLB. Otherwise Dorn may be on his way to the HOF (along with guys like Roberto Petagine, Dallas McPherson, Calvin Pickering....and so on)...:p:

Janish...positive...he's an OK utility IF and as long as he doesn't get 200 AB's, I don't care. Otherwise, he's a drag on the team. Those guys you mention above all had one tool that Janish does not have (not Freel) and that is POP (Freel had more than Janish...whatever that is good for...). Janish is Pop-less...I just don't see the correlation between Ryan Ludwick, Nelson Cruz, Garrett Jones and Paul Janish...it's like the sesame street song: One of these things is not like the other, one of these things just doesn't belong...can you guess which one is not like the others by the time I finish this post? :D

kheidg-
04-07-2010, 02:26 PM
I'd rank Cabrera's bat among the bottom 3-5% of all major league hitters. I'll be stunned if he OPS over .725 this season. That's the very picture of fungible. The guy's actually a pretty big step down from Gonzalez, which is saying something.

HAHAHAHA. Quite possibly the funniest quote of the year. You must seriously have a severe hatred for Cabrera. Bottom 3-5%??? Janish would probably not even be in the bottom 3-5%.

Cabrera leaves something to be desired when it comes to OPS, but he is a good hitter. OPS'ing does not define a hitter, no matter what the statisticians will tell you. Even if it would, he wouldn't fall in the bottom 3-5% of OPS.

Find me a bottom 3% hitter that will give you

.285 average, 36 doubles, 77 RBI
.281 average, 33 doubles, 57 RBI
.301 average, 35 doubles, 86 RBI
.282 average, 45 doubles, 72 RBI

Those are Cabrera's last 4 years.

Have you looked at the stats for Christian Guzman, Yunieski Betancourt, Edgar Renteria, J.J. Hardy, Cezar Izturis, Joe Crede, Geoff Blum, Ian Stewart, Josh Fields just to name a few that have over 400 PA's last year.

I'd say Cabrera is in the easily in the top 50% of the league in terms of hitting.

Falls City Beer
04-07-2010, 02:38 PM
HAHAHAHA. Quite possibly the funniest quote of the year. You must seriously have a severe hatred for Cabrera. Bottom 3-5%??? Janish would probably not even be in the bottom 3-5%.

Cabrera leaves something to be desired when it comes to OPS, but he is a good hitter. OPS'ing does not define a hitter, no matter what the statisticians will tell you. Even if it would, he wouldn't fall in the bottom 3-5% of OPS.

Find me a bottom 3% hitter that will give you

.285 average, 36 doubles, 77 RBI
.281 average, 33 doubles, 57 RBI
.301 average, 35 doubles, 86 RBI
.282 average, 45 doubles, 72 RBI

Those are Cabrera's last 4 years.

Have you looked at the stats for Christian Guzman, Yunieski Betancourt, Edgar Renteria, J.J. Hardy, Cezar Izturis, Joe Crede, Geoff Blum, Ian Stewart, Josh Fields just to name a few that have over 400 PA's last year.

I'd say Cabrera is in the easily in the top 50% of the league in terms of hitting.


What that tells me about Cabrera is that he stays crazy healthy and racks up 700 PA. Health is a good thing, mind you, but it doesn't mean you're a good hitter if you're collecting middling RBI totals on AL offenses.

jojo
04-07-2010, 02:52 PM
My take on Cabrera? When you shortstop needs a defensive replacement for the late innings and he's a below average hitter, you've got a great commercial for Pepto Bismol (ya know when ya get nausea, heartburn, indigestion, upset stomach, even diarrhea)...

TRF
04-07-2010, 02:59 PM
I meant Heyward. I'm always getting that kid's name wrong. Called him Howard last week.

Bumstead
04-07-2010, 03:13 PM
I meant Heyward. I'm always getting that kid's name wrong. Called him Howard last week.

I knew who you meant. :p: I think Heyward is going to be an elite talent; HOF type talent is his ceiling in my opinion.

OnBaseMachine
04-07-2010, 03:35 PM
I'd be very surprised if Cabrera OPS's .700 this season. I'd rather Janish start over Cabrera until the Reds can find a better replacement.

Homer Bailey
04-07-2010, 04:47 PM
The guy's actually a pretty big step down from Gonzalez, which is saying something.

Um, no.

Career OPS:

Cabrera: .719
Gonzalez: .689

OBP:

Cabrera: .321
Gonzalez: .294

Will M
04-07-2010, 05:13 PM
I'd be very surprised if Cabrera OPS's .700 this season. I'd rather Janish start over Cabrera until the Reds can find a better replacement.

i think Janish should get some starts. let him start when Leake pitches for sure. try starting each of these guys in ~50% of the games. i suspect Janish will do overall better. if so then make him the full time starter & make Cabrera the utility infielder.

Blitz Dorsey
04-07-2010, 07:20 PM
Um, no.

Career OPS:

Cabrera: .719
Gonzalez: .689

OBP:

Cabrera: .321
Gonzalez: .294

Facts, accuracy ... get out of here with that garbage!

Falls City Beer
04-07-2010, 07:25 PM
Um, no.

Career OPS:

Cabrera: .719
Gonzalez: .689

OBP:

Cabrera: .321
Gonzalez: .294

When Cabrera OPSes .800 like Gonzalez did for the Reds, let me know.

Mario-Rijo
04-07-2010, 07:36 PM
When Cabrera OPSes .800 like Gonzalez did for the Reds, let me know.

Wow, what an argument there FCB.

Falls City Beer
04-07-2010, 07:47 PM
Wow, what an argument there FCB.

What else is there to say? How much more irrelevant an argument can you get in comparing career stats when it comes to this discussion?

Does anyone think for even an instant that Cabrera's going to sniff .750 OPS, much less an .800?

Raisor
04-07-2010, 07:52 PM
Almost getting to be Coombsish in comparison.


Coombs can out drink Janish

Mario-Rijo
04-07-2010, 07:57 PM
What else is there to say? How much more irrelevant an argument can you get in comparing career stats when it comes to this discussion?

Does anyone think for even an instant that Cabrera's going to sniff .750 OPS, much less an .800?

Well let's see Gonzo:
2007 - .793 OPS
2008 - .000 OPS
2009 - .594 OPS

Cabrera:
2007 - .742 OPS
2008 - .705 OPS
2009 - .705 OPS

The last 3 years is usually the best indicator of success.

Janish isn't worth listing.

fearofpopvol1
04-07-2010, 11:21 PM
i don't know who is more productive or not and i know it's only 1 game, but has Janish ever hit a home run and a double in the same game like ocab did tonight?

i still would prefer him hitting lower in the lineup, but he had a good game at the plate tonight.

SirFelixCat
04-07-2010, 11:27 PM
Good game at the dish, but his range is still worrisome. But if he hits like he did tonight, then it's moot.

OnBaseMachine
04-07-2010, 11:39 PM
He had a real nice night at the plate but I'm still not sure how that ball got under his glove in the third inning.

fearofpopvol1
04-07-2010, 11:57 PM
In fairness...he did make 1 really good defensive play where he caught a line drive that was not an easy play.

TheNext44
04-08-2010, 12:10 AM
i don't know who is more productive or not and i know it's only 1 game, but has Janish ever hit a home run and a double in the same game like ocab did tonight?

i still would prefer him hitting lower in the lineup, but he had a good game at the plate tonight.

Aug 29, 2009. The night he hit his other home run, he only had a single that game. :)

bucksfan2
04-08-2010, 08:45 AM
He had a real nice night at the plate but I'm still not sure how that ball got under his glove in the third inning.

Its baseball. Plays like that happen in baseball. The ball went just under Rolen's glove and then just out of Cabrera's reach. Don't know if Rolen shielded him from the ball or now. Plays like that are going to happen and sometimes your going to have a guy break two bats and get RBI's hits at the same time.

lollipopcurve
04-08-2010, 08:49 AM
It's funny how managers always seem to put players on the bench who would have performed better than the players who played. Happens every game!

edabbs44
04-08-2010, 08:51 AM
He had a real nice night at the plate but I'm still not sure how that ball got under his glove in the third inning.

That wasn't a routine play. Deep in the hole going to his right. At best it is an infield single.

Roy Tucker
04-08-2010, 08:51 AM
Its baseball. Plays like that happen in baseball. The ball went just under Rolen's glove and then just out of Cabrera's reach. Don't know if Rolen shielded him from the ball or now. Plays like that are going to happen and sometimes your going to have a guy break two bats and get RBI's hits at the same time.

Actually, I was more worried about Rolen on that play. He looked awfully stiff.

bucksfan2
04-08-2010, 09:45 AM
Actually, I was more worried about Rolen on that play. He looked awfully stiff.

Not really worried about Rolen. Lets examine that fateful groundball again.

Rolen knows that in order to make a play he needs to pick the ball cleanly. If he knocks it down or has to go to the ground to field it, its likely a base hit. He knows thats a play in which the SS is behind him and its the SS job to smother it. It may be a play in which both players aren't used to playing with each other. It was only their 2nd game playing together.

RedsManRick
04-08-2010, 10:57 AM
That wasn't a routine play. Deep in the hole going to his right. At best it is an infield single.

Yeah, hard to fault him too much on that. However, as the announcers mentioned, you know you're not going to throw the guy out even if you get to it -- so it would have been nice to see him make a bit more of an effort to just get in front of it and keep it in the infield.

OnBaseMachine
04-08-2010, 11:04 AM
That wasn't a routine play. Deep in the hole going to his right. At best it is an infield single.

I know that. The best shortstop in the game isn't going to turn that into an out but at worst that ball should have been knocked down and kept in the infield. I'm not basing my opinion off just that play - there has been a few other plays where Cabrera's lack of range has really stood out. I think we're going to see quite a few fairly routine groundballs in the direction of SS go for hits this season...

Bumstead
04-08-2010, 11:34 AM
I know that. The best shortstop in the game isn't going to turn that into an out but at worst that ball should have been knocked down and kept in the infield. I'm not basing my opinion off just that play - there has been a few other plays where Cabrera's lack of range has really stood out. I think we're going to see quite a few fairly routine groundballs in the direction of SS go for hits this season...

I don't think you are going to see "routine" ground balls go for base hits. His range may be somewhat limited so he won't get to a few balls that other SS might, but "routine" ground balls? No.

lollipopcurve
04-08-2010, 11:40 AM
I know that. The best shortstop in the game isn't going to turn that into an out but at worst that ball should have been knocked down and kept in the infield. I'm not basing my opinion off just that play - there has been a few other plays where Cabrera's lack of range has really stood out. I think we're going to see quite a few fairly routine groundballs in the direction of SS go for hits this season...

I did not see the play live, so I just watched the replay. You're right OBM -- that ball should never have gone through.

redsmetz
04-13-2010, 11:25 AM
I knew we had a thread on Cabrera, so I'll put this here. In last night's game (Game #1 @ FLA), Jeff Brantley commented that Cabrera was positioning himself more in keeping with how they do it in the AL. He said in the NL, shortstops are usually about two steps to his left. He wasn't sure if the Reds coaching staff had him set there, or if he was just doing it on his own. The balls I saw Cabrera not getting to were one's to his left. I wonder if this might be part of the issue, if in fact he's setting himself up a couple of steps towards third.

RedsManRick
04-13-2010, 11:26 AM
I knew we had a thread on Cabrera, so I'll put this here. In last night's game (Game #1 @ FLA), Jeff Brantley commented that Cabrera was positioning himself more in keeping with how they do it in the AL. He said in the NL, shortstops are usually about two steps to his left. He wasn't sure if the Reds coaching staff had him set there, or if he was just doing it on his own. The balls I saw Cabrera not getting to were one's to his left. I wonder if this might be part of the issue, if in fact he's setting himself up a couple of steps towards third.

That's interesting. Why would SS positioning differ between leagues?

Chip R
04-13-2010, 11:33 AM
I knew we had a thread on Cabrera, so I'll put this here. In last night's game (Game #1 @ FLA), Jeff Brantley commented that Cabrera was positioning himself more in keeping with how they do it in the AL. He said in the NL, shortstops are usually about two steps to his left. He wasn't sure if the Reds coaching staff had him set there, or if he was just doing it on his own. The balls I saw Cabrera not getting to were one's to his left. I wonder if this might be part of the issue, if in fact he's setting himself up a couple of steps towards third.


I dunno about that. Most of the balls I've seen hit to Cabrera were on his right and he couldn't get to those.

lollipopcurve
04-13-2010, 11:34 AM
That's interesting. Why would SS positioning differ between leagues?

It wouldn't.

westofyou
04-13-2010, 11:36 AM
That's interesting. Why would SS positioning differ between leagues?

Playing baseball with a DH tilts the earths axis exactly .000006 of a hundreths of an inch to the right. Thus SS have to position themselves to make up for that issue.

You didn't know that?

Captain Hook
04-13-2010, 11:38 AM
Is Janish still on the team?

I guess he will have to start seeing some PT soon now that Fransisco is gone.Rolen,Cabrera and Phillips will need a day off at some point.

Is there anyone else that would rather see Janich getting the occasional pinch hit AB in place of Cairo?I'd honestly probably rather see Janish given a chance over a number of guys considering some of the terrible PH ABs we've seen the last few days.

Ron Madden
04-13-2010, 11:39 AM
I'm not sure where Jeff Brantley comes up with most of the stuff he says. :confused:

Blitz Dorsey
04-13-2010, 11:45 AM
I hope Cozart hits well at Louisville this year. Would love to see him take Janish's spot on the roster as the backup SS because Cozart is good defensively AND can hit a little bit. Janish's lack of a stick makes him almost a non-option in my book. It would be different if he was the best defensive shortstop in baseball or something, but he's more "good" defensively than he is "great" IMO. Maybe more like "very good" but certainly not anything too special. So, personally, I would love to see Cozart up here after the All-Star break or something if his play at Louisville warrants it and the Reds are still getting little out of Janish.

To be clear, I don't want to see Cozart up here now no matter how well he's playing at AAA. He needs the everyday at-bats and experience. But if the Reds are in the race late, I think he might be a better option than Janish this year. He is certainly a better long-term option; I don't think anyone here would debate that.

pahster
04-13-2010, 11:56 AM
I hope Cozart hits well at Louisville this year. Would love to see him take Janish's spot on the roster as the backup SS because Cozart is good defensively AND can hit a little bit. Janish's lack of a stick makes him almost a non-option in my book. It would be different if he was the best defensive shortstop in baseball or something, but he's more "good" defensively than he is "great" IMO. Maybe more like "very good" but certainly not anything too special. So, personally, I would love to see Cozart up here after the All-Star break or something if his play at Louisville warrants it and the Reds are still getting little out of Janish.

To be clear, I don't want to see Cozart up here now no matter how well he's playing at AAA. He needs the everyday at-bats and experience. But if the Reds are in the race late, I think he might be a better option than Janish this year. He is certainly a better long-term option; I don't think anyone here would debate that.

Sounds more like you want him to take Cabrera's spot, which is a good thing. Cozart projects to be Cabrera back when the latter was still a good player.

TRF
04-13-2010, 12:03 PM
That's interesting. Why would SS positioning differ between leagues?

more burners/weak hitters in the NL? Erveth Cabrera, Emiliio Bonafacio types?

wait. Brantley said that? nevermind.

Roy Tucker
04-13-2010, 12:16 PM
Playing baseball with a DH tilts the earths axis exactly .000006 of a hundreths of an inch to the right. Thus SS have to position themselves to make up for that issue.

You didn't know that?

only in the northern hemisphere.

in australia, it tilts to the left.

pedro
04-13-2010, 12:22 PM
only in the northern hemisphere.

in australia, it tilts to the left.

That's why they call it Australian Rules baseball.

Redsfan320
04-13-2010, 01:48 PM
The whole SS positioning thing sounds kinda funny to me too, but keep in mind Brantley probably knows more about baseball than we ever will. He did play the game at the highest level; if anyone should know something like that, it'd be him.

320

Ron Madden
04-13-2010, 01:50 PM
The whole SS positioning thing sounds kinda funny to me too, but keep in mind Brantley probably knows more about baseball than we ever will. He did play the game at the highest level; if anyone should know something like that, it'd be him.

320

I doubt it.

westofyou
04-13-2010, 01:51 PM
In the appeal for authority line Jeff Brantley is more in the rear than the front.

Bumstead
04-13-2010, 02:16 PM
Is there anyone else that would rather see Janich getting the occasional pinch hit AB in place of Cairo?

I would prefer to never see Janish pinch hit...Cairo is definitely a better hitter, just look at the numbers. At some point, you just have to figure out that Janish is a horrible hitter.

I would hope that Cairo would get the starts to rest everyone except O-Cab and even then one would have to consider putting Cairo at SS.

Bum

Chip R
04-13-2010, 02:22 PM
The whole SS positioning thing sounds kinda funny to me too, but keep in mind Brantley probably knows more about baseball than we ever will. He did play the game at the highest level; if anyone should know something like that, it'd be him.

320


So did Tracy Jones. Someone needs to call Brantley on his stuff.

_Sir_Charles_
04-13-2010, 03:22 PM
Is Janish still on the team?

I guess he will have to start seeing some PT soon now that Fransisco is gone.Rolen,Cabrera and Phillips will need a day off at some point.

Is there anyone else that would rather see Janich getting the occasional pinch hit AB in place of Cairo?I'd honestly probably rather see Janish given a chance over a number of guys considering some of the terrible PH ABs we've seen the last few days.

I don't think he's even had an AB yet. I seem to recall him pinch running the other night, but that's it. Considering the spring he had, it's a crime that he's not even gotten a freaking AB. Not to mention a start.

redsmetz
04-13-2010, 03:27 PM
I would prefer to never see Janish pinch hit...Cairo is definitely a better hitter, just look at the numbers. At some point, you just have to figure out that Janish is a horrible hitter.

I would hope that Cairo would get the starts to rest everyone except O-Cab and even then one would have to consider putting Cairo at SS.

Bum

A couple of thoughts. With regards to the general view around here that Janish is so horrible and will always be horrible, I'm curious as to why Bill James is so high on his potential.

With regards to Brantley's comment, I wasn't sure why the leagues would have different placements (or even the perception of it). But I did wonder about Cabrera moving over a step or two, as Brantley suggested, as I recalled on Opening Day, he missed two balls to his left. I may be remember those incorrectly, but that's what I recall. As for calling him out, you do wonder why Marty would just ask, "what are you talking about, son?".

Bumstead
04-13-2010, 03:35 PM
A couple of thoughts. With regards to the general view around here that Janish is so horrible and will always be horrible, I'm curious as to why Bill James is so high on his potential.

Uh...does it matter? And when you say "so high" do you mean that he thinks he's not going to always be horrible (just a shade better) or that he's potentially going to be really good?

bucksfan2
04-13-2010, 03:40 PM
A couple of thoughts. With regards to the general view around here that Janish is so horrible and will always be horrible, I'm curious as to why Bill James is so high on his potential.

Youth and defense. It seems like there has been a sea change towards defense over the past couple of seasons. When you take a plus defender at a primer defensive position you have value.

I think James overvalues what Janish brings to the plate.

westofyou
04-13-2010, 03:47 PM
I think James overvalues what Janish brings to the plate.

Likely because he's never seen him play (much) and all he knows about his defense is his numbers.

Bill James knows players, but if you ask him he'll tell you that he misses often too. In this case I'm saying he's missing it.

RedEye
04-13-2010, 03:54 PM
The whole SS positioning thing sounds kinda funny to me too, but keep in mind Brantley probably knows more about baseball than we ever will. He did play the game at the highest level; if anyone should know something like that, it'd be him.

320

I don't know whether Brantley is right or not in this case, but I think one should be careful about the amount of knowledge we attribute to former players just because they "played the game." Joe Morgan, for instance, played the game as well as anyone ever did--but he has also shown on repeated occasions an alarming inability to speak analytically about what he was so good at doing on the field.

Mario-Rijo
04-13-2010, 04:19 PM
A couple of thoughts. With regards to the general view around here that Janish is so horrible and will always be horrible, I'm curious as to why Bill James is so high on his potential.

With regards to Brantley's comment, I wasn't sure why the leagues would have different placements (or even the perception of it). But I did wonder about Cabrera moving over a step or two, as Brantley suggested, as I recalled on Opening Day, he missed two balls to his left. I may be remember those incorrectly, but that's what I recall. As for calling him out, you do wonder why Marty would just ask, "what are you talking about, son?".

It's easy to see what Bill likes about him. #1 His defense above average as we know, I would stop short of calling him elite though as his range is good but not Ozzie or even Larkin good. Short of that particular part of his game though he's pretty doggone good in every other aspect i.e. arm, hands, footwork, game acumen. #2 His acumen at the plate is pretty sound as well, he understands what he is supposed to do every time he steps to the plate no matter what the circumstance. He has a good eye, he's disciplined, he does a pretty fair job of making contact and he is always looking for the pitch he can drive. His problem though and I'm guessing Bill hasn't had the opportunity to see him enough to recognize it is that he has to get that meatball in order to have a shot at driving the pitch. He just doesn't create enough impact on the ball to consistently drive the ball even out of the IF's grasp very often. He simply lacks usable power and his speed for a fairly rangey guy is below average. I would have never thought a guy with his size would have such little pop.

blumj
04-13-2010, 04:47 PM
I would guess he believes his defense is elite, or close enough to it that the bar for his offense can be set very low.

mth123
04-13-2010, 08:40 PM
Janish is Gary Green. Cairo is old.

westofyou
04-13-2010, 09:04 PM
Janish is Gary Green. Cairo is old.

Agreed I get a Woody Woodward vibe too

Raisor
04-13-2010, 09:19 PM
Agreed I get a Woody Woodward vibe too

So Janish will GM the Mariners eventually?

jmcclain19
04-14-2010, 03:58 AM
I don't know if Janish made a move on Dusty's wife or what, but the guy has had two straight seasons to use him in any shape or form and hasn't even bothered to sniff in Janish's direction until Jocketty essentially gave him no other SS choice last season.

Honestly I just tire of the Reds dance around "Pitching & defense" which seems to be the new black around baseball when the Cincy Manager and GM don't seem to have the stomach to go full bore after it, despite lip service to the contrary.

jmcclain19
04-14-2010, 05:43 PM
Looks like Dusty reads Redszone - Janish is starting (and batting 2nd of course) tonight

http://ramsey.mlblogs.com/archives/2010/04/tonights-reds-lineup.html

TRF
04-14-2010, 05:51 PM
He'll hit 3 doubles. He's an OPS beast.

pedro
04-14-2010, 09:46 PM
He'll hit 3 doubles. He's an OPS beast.

um... ah...uh :)

Dude's having a good night.

I would love to be proven wrong because the guy can pick it at SS.

Roy Tucker
04-14-2010, 10:41 PM
Looks like Dusty reads Redszone - Janish is starting (and batting 2nd of course) tonight

http://ramsey.mlblogs.com/archives/2010/04/tonights-reds-lineup.html

I do not. I was starting him anyhow.

;)

Ghosts of 1990
04-14-2010, 10:42 PM
Color me impressed with Paul on this evening.

TheNext44
04-14-2010, 10:46 PM
If I was Cabrera, I'd be nervous right now. And I'm not referring to the home run. Janish looked great at SS tonight.

fearofpopvol1
04-14-2010, 11:11 PM
If I was Cabrera, I'd be nervous right now. And I'm not referring to the home run. Janish looked great at SS tonight.

Dusty prefers vets. Especially ones with a history of GGs.

I'll be the first to admit that I thought Janish's ST numbers were a mirage. I'm still not fully convinced He can OPS above 700 for a full season, but I would welcome being proven wrong. I absolutely hope he receives more playing time and really, he needs to. Cabrera is not part of the future and Janish potentially could be. The Reds need to see what they have this season in him.

westofyou
04-14-2010, 11:37 PM
If I was Cabrera, I'd be nervous right now. And I'm not referring to the home run. Janish looked great at SS tonight.

Hal Lanier had 2 hit nights too.

VR
04-15-2010, 12:26 AM
Walks.....Janish 1, Cabrera O.


Yikes.

jmcclain19
04-15-2010, 01:16 AM
I do not. I was starting him anyhow.

;)

Dusty - I'll say this as a friend - it's time to lose the sweatbands.

TheNext44
04-15-2010, 01:48 AM
Hal Lanier had 2 hit nights too.


I was only referring to his defense. Janish looks like he has at least two steps on Cabrera these days.

I believe that if Janish can OPS .650 or maintain a .300 wOPA, he'd justify his glove. He may not be gold glove, but he definitely is well above average, borderline elite defensively at SS. Quick, smooth, sure handed and a cannon for an arm.

cincinnati chili
04-15-2010, 01:56 AM
This thread is like broccoli vs brussel sprouts. I prefer the Skyline vs Gold star thread.

TheNext44
04-15-2010, 02:04 AM
Hal Lanier had 2 hit nights too.

Considering Janish is from Texas, I'm sure he'd love to manage the Astros someday. :)

Redhook
04-15-2010, 08:09 AM
This thread is like broccoli vs brussel sprouts. I prefer the Skyline vs Gold star thread.

:laugh:

TRF
04-15-2010, 09:20 AM
Its one game, but this was precisely why i didn't care for the Cabrera signing. Janish's defense is very, very good. IF the offense in CF can be league average or better, stash Janish in the 8 hole and watch him help the pitching staff. Use Sutton as the backup IF and he makes the bench better too.

_Sir_Charles_
04-15-2010, 10:02 AM
Its one game, but this was precisely why i didn't care for the Cabrera signing. Janish's defense is very, very good. IF the offense in CF can be league average or better, stash Janish in the 8 hole and watch him help the pitching staff. Use Sutton as the backup IF and he makes the bench better too.

I agree. But the problem lies in the fact that Dusty won't "stuff" him in the 8 hole. He'll bat 2nd. And that stat Fay posted about our record last season when Paul batted 2nd...won't help matters.

TRF
04-15-2010, 10:08 AM
well, he should start tonight. He probably won't, but Dusty should see if he's carrying a hot bat. Can't hurt for one more game.

westofyou
04-15-2010, 10:09 AM
Let's change the name of Redzone to Smallsamplezone

Chip R
04-15-2010, 10:14 AM
well, he should start tonight. He probably won't, but Dusty should see if he's carrying a hot bat. Can't hurt for one more game.


He won't. They didn't get Cabrera to sit on the bench. Janish is going to have to hit like he did last night every time he gets the chance to play if he's going to send Cabrera to the bench.

TRF
04-15-2010, 10:18 AM
I had this thought about Janish last night. can't remember if I posted it in the game thread or not. Last year, Dusty tells Janish he has potential as a hitter, but he needs to strengthen his wrists. A lot of posters ridiculed this comment, but one thing almost universally agreed on is Dusty is good at managing people. Players respect what he says, even care what he thinks of him. It's Janish's first year as a major leaguer, so maybe in the offseason he takes Dusty's advice to heart. He did hit 21 doubles last year, but what he lacked was hits overall. MAYBE he spent the offseason doing just what Dusty said, get stronger. So those flares to SS and 2B now sail over the heads of the defenders. He's shown an ability to take a BB. Last year's numbers projected to 550 AB's would have him somewhere in the neighborhood of 60 BB's. In ST this year, he had a .900+ OPS. sure it was spring, sure it was a small sample, and sure he likely faced guys working on things and pitchers that were eventually sent to minor league camp. At the same time, he did post a .900+ OPS. Maybe he turned a corner offensively.

I'm not saying he has. More than likely he hasn't, but wouldn't it be cool if he did?

nate
04-15-2010, 10:26 AM
Let's change the name of Redzone to Smallsamplezone

Word.

nate
04-15-2010, 10:26 AM
I had this thought about Janish last night. can't remember if I posted it in the game thread or not. Last year, Dusty tells Janish he has potential as a hitter, but he needs to strengthen his wrists. A lot of posters ridiculed this comment, but one thing almost universally agreed on is Dusty is good at managing people. Players respect what he says, even care what he thinks of him. It's Janish's first year as a major leaguer, so maybe in the offseason he takes Dusty's advice to heart. He did hit 21 doubles last year, but what he lacked was hits overall. MAYBE he spent the offseason doing just what Dusty said, get stronger. So those flares to SS and 2B now sail over the heads of the defenders. He's shown an ability to take a BB. Last year's numbers projected to 550 AB's would have him somewhere in the neighborhood of 60 BB's. In ST this year, he had a .900+ OPS. sure it was spring, sure it was a small sample, and sure he likely faced guys working on things and pitchers that were eventually sent to minor league camp. At the same time, he did post a .900+ OPS. Maybe he turned a corner offensively.

I'm not saying he has. More than likely he hasn't, but wouldn't it be cool if he did?

It would. The question (problem) is, will he ever get enough ABs for us to see if that's the case?

My question is largely rhetorical.

Spring~Fields
04-15-2010, 10:33 AM
I was only referring to his defense. Janish looks like he has at least two steps on Cabrera these days.

I believe that if Janish can OPS .650 or maintain a .300 wOPA, he'd justify his glove. He may not be gold glove, but he definitely is well above average, borderline elite defensively at SS. Quick, smooth, sure handed and a cannon for an arm.

To save some words, let's say that you are absolutely right. How does he, Paul Janish get out of "Smallsamplezone" to find out? Seems to be an entire outfield and a cleanup batter getting the chance, regardless, to get out of small sample zone, how about Janish? At least some reasonable playing time? Maybe even Hanigan?

I get confused after reading so much about the young and the future and I look and see aging and declining experienced players out there along with batters who can’t find first base or beyond unless they get a mistake pitch from some AAAA pitcher. They all get some form of justification, why not Janish?

Spring~Fields
04-15-2010, 11:01 AM
He won't. They didn't get Cabrera to sit on the bench. Janish is going to have to hit like he did last night every time he gets the chance to play if he's going to send Cabrera to the bench.

Didnít they get Cabrera for his experience as well as his defense to make contributions toward helping the inconsistent young pitching as well as the veteran starters, Arroyo, Harang and the bullpen by limiting outs and pitches thrown?

Razor Shines
04-15-2010, 11:13 AM
Didnít they get Cabrera for his experience as well as his defense to make contributions toward helping the inconsistent young pitching as well as the veteran starters, Arroyo, Harang and the bullpen by limiting outs and pitches thrown?

Yeah, but are you expecting them to admit that Cabrera is not nearly the defender he once was and that now Janish is head and shoulders above him defensively?

Mario-Rijo
04-15-2010, 11:30 AM
I had this thought about Janish last night. can't remember if I posted it in the game thread or not. Last year, Dusty tells Janish he has potential as a hitter, but he needs to strengthen his wrists. A lot of posters ridiculed this comment, but one thing almost universally agreed on is Dusty is good at managing people. Players respect what he says, even care what he thinks of him. It's Janish's first year as a major leaguer, so maybe in the offseason he takes Dusty's advice to heart. He did hit 21 doubles last year, but what he lacked was hits overall. MAYBE he spent the offseason doing just what Dusty said, get stronger. So those flares to SS and 2B now sail over the heads of the defenders. He's shown an ability to take a BB. Last year's numbers projected to 550 AB's would have him somewhere in the neighborhood of 60 BB's. In ST this year, he had a .900+ OPS. sure it was spring, sure it was a small sample, and sure he likely faced guys working on things and pitchers that were eventually sent to minor league camp. At the same time, he did post a .900+ OPS. Maybe he turned a corner offensively.

I'm not saying he has. More than likely he hasn't, but wouldn't it be cool if he did?

He told Paul that prior to the offseason of '08/'09 and Paul came in last season with stronger wrists. Not sure if he did more strength training this past offseason but perhaps he did, maybe he should have spoke up about it.

TRF
04-15-2010, 11:44 AM
That's right, the story came out last ST i think. time flies.

Maybe he took it to heart. All offseason he said he was preparing to be the starter, right up until OCab was signed. He might very well be stronger.

Sure, its a longshot, but it would be an amazing story in the (supposedly) post PED age.

Chip R
04-15-2010, 12:26 PM
Didnít they get Cabrera for his experience as well as his defense to make contributions toward helping the inconsistent young pitching as well as the veteran starters, Arroyo, Harang and the bullpen by limiting outs and pitches thrown?

And look how well that's worked out so far.

edabbs44
04-15-2010, 12:46 PM
He won't. They didn't get Cabrera to sit on the bench. Janish is going to have to hit like he did last night every time he gets the chance to play if he's going to send Cabrera to the bench.

That's probably correct. He'll need to rip it up and Cabrera will need to be a disaster.

westofyou
04-15-2010, 12:56 PM
Bump Bailey didn't worry, should OC?

Chip R
04-15-2010, 01:02 PM
Bump Bailey didn't worry, should OC?


Bump didn't have Dusty for a manager. ;)

TRF
04-15-2010, 01:02 PM
Bump Bailey didn't worry, should OC?

You know, you could be wrong. I mean you probably aren't, but you could be.

westofyou
04-15-2010, 01:10 PM
You know, you could be wrong. I mean you probably aren't, but you could be.

I'm very often wrong, that's for sure.

TheNext44
04-15-2010, 01:39 PM
Let's change the name of Redzone to Smallsamplezone

I can't speak for others, but I'm not basing my decision on a small sample size. In fact, I'm just reiterating what I've been saying since the Cabrera signing. That Janish is a much superior defender and should be starting because defense at SS is what matters most.

The only question is whether or not Janish has the offense to support his defense. I'm not sure about that, but I think that there's a good chance he can.

I think he needs to OPS .650 or over, and that is what he did when he had the starting job at the end of last year. I don't give much credence to his spring stats, especially since they were in hitter friendly Az, but I do think what he did as a starter last years shows that he should at least be given a chance.

At the very least, I would like to see Janish start 2 games a week, and enter most other games in the late innings for defense. As Spring~Field asks, why not give him a shot?

Eric_the_Red
04-15-2010, 01:52 PM
I can't speak for others, but I'm not basing my decision on a small sample size. In fact, I'm just reiterating what I've been saying since the Cabrera signing. That Janish is a much superior defender and should be starting because defense at SS is what matters most.



Disagree. Defense is important, but overall value is what is important. Like any other position, you must weigh the total package- offense and defense. The player that is better overall option should play.

westofyou
04-15-2010, 01:57 PM
Disagree. Defense is important, but overall value is what is important. Like any other position, you must weigh the total package- offense and defense. The player that is better overall option should play.

Yep, defense is a key component of being as SS, the biggest one for sure.

But if it was the only thing that mattered then there would be more Rey Ordonez's in the game than there are.

TheNext44
04-15-2010, 02:11 PM
Disagree. Defense is important, but overall value is what is important. Like any other position, you must weigh the total package- offense and defense. The player that is better overall option should play.

SS and catcher are the two positions where I disagree on that philosophy. The value that a SS and a catcher brings defensively is nearly impossible to measure. It affects the whole team, especially the pitching staff.

First, a SS and catcher must provide a minimal level of defense to justify starting, no matter how good their offense is. It's not like other positions, where a guy can post a -15 UZR/150, but make it up with a .950 OPS. It doesn't matter how well you hit, you must provide solid defense at SS and catcher, or else you hurt the team as a whole too much to justify any amount of offense.

Second, I will agree that when a team has two decent, at least league average SS to decide between, then overall value is what is most important, but even then, I would value defense higher than offense. I would go with a the better defender over the better hitter except in extreme cases (Ripken, Tejada, Larkin...)

But that's just my opinion with absolutely no hard evidence to back it up. Just years of watching teams with bad defensive SS who can hit a little almost never competing.

TheNext44
04-15-2010, 02:16 PM
Yep, defense is a key component of being as SS, the biggest one for sure.

But if it was the only thing that mattered then there would be more Rey Ordonez's in the game than there are.

And yet, his team was in contention 5 out of 7 years when he was the starting SS, and went to the WS in one of them. He kinda proves my point. :)

westofyou
04-15-2010, 02:23 PM
And yet, his team was in contention 5 out of 7 years when he was the starting SS, and went to the WS in one of them. He kinda proves my point. :)
I suppose if you could also say that if they had a SS who hit they might have actually won something instead of just being in contention.

It helps if you have tons more money then most if you are going to hide a line like this

.216/.255/.256/.510 OPS+ = 36

And that's during an offensive boom

FWIW the year they went to the WS Ordonez had less SS ab's than Kurt Abbot, Melvin Mora and Mike Bordick.. maybe that's why they went to the WS?

Eric_the_Red
04-15-2010, 02:25 PM
And yet, his team was in contention 5 out of 7 years when he was the starting SS, and went to the WS in one of them. He kinda proves my point. :)

Isn't Derek Jeter considered an average SS defensively for most of his career? He led his teams to some post-season success.

And I think if you swap Rey Ordonez for Orlando Cabrera or Paul Janish, the teams win just as much.

Razor Shines
04-15-2010, 02:25 PM
And yet, his team was in contention 5 out of 7 years when he was the starting SS, and went to the WS in one of them. He kinda proves my point. :)

While I agree that Janish should be starting over OC, I don't that argument is a good one.

Those Mets teams had the offensive fire power to afford a weak hitting Ordonez, the Reds clearly don't. I still think Janish should start because I don't think Cabrera's offense makes up for his lack of range.

TRF
04-15-2010, 02:28 PM
I suppose if you could also say that if they had a SS who hit they might have actually won something instead of just being in contention.

It helps if you have tons more money then most if you are going to hide a line like this

.216/.255/.256/.510 OPS+ = 36

And that's during an offensive boom

FWIW the year they went to the WS Ordonez had less SS ab's than Kurt Abbot, Melvin Mora and Mike Bordick.. maybe that's why they went to the WS?

I wonder how well they'd have done if the opposite were true. What if instead they had a Jeff Keppinger type. Decent bat, fall down range.

TheNext44
04-15-2010, 02:36 PM
Isn't Derek Jeter considered an average SS defensively for most of his career? He led his teams to some post-season success.

And I think if you swap Rey Ordonez for Orlando Cabrera or Paul Janish, the teams win just as much.

Right, which makes my point. You need at least an average SS defensively to compete. And Jeter, even as he has gotten older had been at least an average defensive SS.

TheNext44
04-15-2010, 02:40 PM
While I agree that Janish should be starting over OC, I don't that argument is a good one.

Those Mets teams had the offensive fire power to afford a weak hitting Ordonez, the Reds clearly don't. I still think Janish should start because I don't think Cabrera's offense makes up for his lack of range.

Yeah, it's not a good one at all. I was just having fun.

I think most Met's fans will tell you they won, despite of Ray Ordonez, not because of him. His offense was Taveras terrible.

mbgrayson
04-15-2010, 02:51 PM
Right, which makes my point. You need at least an average SS defensively to compete. And Jeter, even as he has gotten older had been at least an average defensive SS.

Is Jeter 'average', or just highly over-rated?

Jeter has won four gold gloves:
Gold Gloves
2004 AL (http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/gold_glove_al_alt.shtml#2004) (SS)
2005 AL (http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/gold_glove_al_alt.shtml#2005) (SS)
2006 AL (http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/gold_glove_al_alt.shtml#2006) (SS)
2009 AL (http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/gold_glove_al_alt.shtml#2009) (SS)

Of course, he is also the classic argument that the Gold Glove award is outdated in the age of sabermetrics.

In the first edition of the Fielding Bible, Jeter was ranked 30th out of 31 shortstops for the three year period of 2003-05. In the second edition, Jeter was ranked fourth lowest among qualifying shortstops. He apparently does well in GG voting because of a low number of 'defensivce misplays' See HERE (http://riveraveblues.com/2009/03/fielding-bible-jeters-defense-revisited-9558/).

But, Jeter can hit. Over 16 seasons, he is hitting .317/.388/.459 for an OPS of .847. For a shortstop, that will be plenty to get him in the HOF, not even consdering his world series rings and playing in NY.

TRF
04-15-2010, 02:53 PM
Yeah, it's not a good one at all. I was just having fun.

I think most Met's fans will tell you they won, despite of Ray Ordonez, not because of him. His offense was Taveras terrible.

Then the question becomes is Janish "Taveras Terrible" at the dish? My answer is no, but maybe. I think he has more power (so to speak) I think his doubles are less speed aided. And I think he can run into a few fastballs.

I think he can hit .250, and that means an OBP close to .350. I'd still bat him 8th.

redsmetz
04-15-2010, 02:55 PM
I'm very often wrong, that's for sure.

You're right about that....

[OK, sorry, it just begged to be said]

BTW, I think Janish is a really quandary for the club. He's quite the enigma, in some ways, and the club hedged it's bet by signing Cabrera. As TRF (and others) noted, it's very possible that Janish will, in fact, never really become much of a hitter, but those doubles last year (and the walks as TRF, I think, noted) are intriguing. And just perhaps, he is learning to hit.

Given what's occurred the last couple of years, it's not hard to believe that if Cabrera's defense is lackluster and is costing us outs, I think they've shown they can move away from a player like that. It makes for an expensive bench jockey, with the buyout, but if Janish forces there hand, all the better.

westofyou
04-15-2010, 03:01 PM
I think he can hit .250, and that means an OBP close to .350. I'd still bat him 8th.
Only if he walks at the rate that he did in ML. That isn't likely because

A. Pitchers have better control

and

B. He'll get challenged way more.

So I'd say if he hits .250 he's be lucky to OB .315, mostly because his BB rate should drop.

TRF
04-15-2010, 03:18 PM
And because of my completely rational/irrational bias, I think he can do what I think Stubbs can't do. Mostly because he's had some development. He's managed 20+ doubles every year. And he's had a decent BB rate. That's intriguing to me.

weird huh?

pedro
04-15-2010, 03:55 PM
And because of my completely rational/irrational bias, I think he can do what I think Stubbs can't do. Mostly because he's had some development. He's managed 20+ doubles every year. And he's had a decent BB rate. That's intriguing to me.

weird huh?

I think it's due in part to your emotional investment in the idea that the Reds should have taken Tim Lincecum which makes it hard for for you to root for Drew Stubbs. If Paul Janish wasn't an underdog but instead was taken over say Hanley Ramirez, I get the sense you'd have a hard time rooting for him too.

TRF
04-15-2010, 04:03 PM
I think it's due in part to your emotional investment in the idea that the Reds should have taken Tim Lincecum which makes it hard for for you to root for Drew Stubbs. If Paul Janish wasn't an underdog but instead was taken over say Hanley Ramirez, I get the sense you'd have a hard time rooting for him too.

Possibly. But, and maybe this is just me, I expect a top ten pick that is a position player taken out of a major conference school to be able to hit. It's why I like Danny Dorn. He hits. Plus he was a late round pick.

all the attributes i like in a player. It could be why I am lukewarm about Yonder Alonso, but have no problem with Mesoraco. Age, background and development.

westofyou
04-15-2010, 04:04 PM
Emotions are nice, but they have nothing to do with baseball talent evaluation.

If they do chances are you'll make the wrong choice.

Tom Yawkey and Phil Wrigley are fine examples of what can go wrong when that aspect of your life gets involved in the game.

TRF
04-15-2010, 04:11 PM
Emotions are nice, but they have nothing to do with baseball talent evaluation.

If they do chances are you'll make the wrong choice.

Tom Yawkey and Phil Wrigley are fine examples of what can go wrong when that aspect of your life gets involved in the game.

And yet emotions, are what allowed a pitcher in St. Louis the chance to revive his career as an OF. Rick Ankiel says hi.

You cannot detach emotion from the game, even when evaluating talent. There is a feel, a sense you can get about certain players. Chris Carpenter never showed a thing while in Toronto that he'd become a dominant starter, but someone in St. Louis felt he could. Or maybe they just saw something they could tweak, but they couldn't be sure of it. The whole game is stats wrapped around intuition.

westofyou
04-15-2010, 04:17 PM
And yet emotions, are what allowed a pitcher in St. Louis the chance to revive his career as an OF. Rick Ankiel says hi.

You cannot detach emotion from the game, even when evaluating talent. There is a feel, a sense you can get about certain players. Chris Carpenter never showed a thing while in Toronto that he'd become a dominant starter, but someone in St. Louis felt he could. Or maybe they just saw something they could tweak, but they couldn't be sure of it. The whole game is stats wrapped around intuition.

Rick Ankiel was under contract, he was a piece of property, emotion didn't have as much to do with his conversion as the fact they wanted production from an asset they had already placed a considerable amount of capital into.

The Carpenter comparison to an emotional move is a reach, as a Blue Jay he had 3 seasons with an era plus over 105

TRF
04-15-2010, 05:10 PM
Rick Ankiel was under contract, he was a piece of property, emotion didn't have as much to do with his conversion as the fact they wanted production from an asset they had already placed a considerable amount of capital into.

The Carpenter comparison to an emotional move is a reach, as a Blue Jay he had 3 seasons with an era plus over 105

With weak peripherals. Average at best K rates, high BB rates and high hit rates. Plus only 1 season above 200 IP. Someone had a hunch, because at age 29 all of a sudden he's one of the best starters in baseball. Someone had a gut feeling they could turn him around.

As for Ankiel, yes he was under contract. but he doesn't dictate what he does. The Cardinals could have said he had to keep pitching.

westofyou
04-15-2010, 05:15 PM
With weak peripherals. Average at best K rates, high BB rates and high hit rates. Plus only 1 season above 200 IP. Someone had a hunch, because at age 29 all of a sudden he's one of the best starters in baseball. Someone had a gut feeling they could turn him around.

As for Ankiel, yes he was under contract. but he doesn't dictate what he does. The Cardinals could have said he had to keep pitching.


You say emotion, I say dollars


During Ankiel's various comebacks, some suggested he could earn a spot in the major leagues with a bat instead of his arm.

"But not by me," Jocketty said. "I never gave up the hope that he would come back as a pitcher. That's what we drafted him and invested all the money in, as a pitcher."

Ankiel earned a $2.5 million bonus in 1997 when the Cardinals signed him out of high school

As for Carpenter, signing an injured guy was an astute move that was more about getting a 100 dollar bill for a dollar, I hardly see any emotion in that signing.

TRF
04-15-2010, 05:20 PM
You say emotion, I say dollars



As for Carpenter, signing an injured guy was an astute move that was more about getting a 100 dollar bill for a dollar, I hardly see any emotion in that signing.

You say astute, i say gut feeling. Like Schourek, it really came from out of nowhere.

westofyou
04-15-2010, 05:25 PM
You say astute, i say gut feeling. Like Schourek, it really came from out of nowhere.

Who said gut feeling?

I'm talking about emotion dictating team building, like not liking Stubbs because he was taken instead of Linicum, not grabbing pennies on the dollar.

TRF
04-15-2010, 05:47 PM
I equate gut with emotion. intuition, feeling, hair standing up on your neck when you see the potential of a player. Sometimes a player defies the numbers this way.

At first, its true I didn't like Stubbs because the Reds passed on Lincecum. Then I didn't like him because he didn't hit at Billings. Then he wasn't hitting at Dayton, bad toe i think, though his second half was nice. Then he didn't hit at Sarasota, but that was the FSL's fault. He was supposed to see a big jump in his SLG when he left there. Didn't happen. My dislike for him turned into dislike for how he was handled: completely rushed, without merit. And so far this short season he's completely overmatched.

But maybe that will change. I have a feeling it won't though. :)

Spring~Fields
04-15-2010, 07:04 PM
SS and catcher are the two positions where I disagree on that philosophy. The value that a SS and a catcher brings defensively is nearly impossible to measure. It affects the whole team, especially the pitching staff.

First, a SS and catcher must provide a minimal level of defense to justify starting, no matter how good their offense is. It's not like other positions, where a guy can post a -15 UZR/150, but make it up with a .950 OPS. It doesn't matter how well you hit, you must provide solid defense at SS and catcher, or else you hurt the team as a whole too much to justify any amount of offense.

Second, I will agree that when a team has two decent, at least league average SS to decide between, then overall value is what is most important, but even then, I would value defense higher than offense. I would go with a the better defender over the better hitter except in extreme cases (Ripken, Tejada, Larkin...)

But that's just my opinion with absolutely no hard evidence to back it up. Just years of watching teams with bad defensive SS who can hit a little almost never competing.

Wouldn't Concepcion and Larkin help support your points along with the catchers that they had in 75/76 and 90? Who were those teams without them? Plus a couple CF's, some of the group was good hitters, some were not so great.

membengal
04-16-2010, 04:17 PM
How about BOTH in the line-up at the same time?

Done and done. Weather permitting.

Brutus
04-16-2010, 04:22 PM
Rick Ankiel was under contract, he was a piece of property, emotion didn't have as much to do with his conversion as the fact they wanted production from an asset they had already placed a considerable amount of capital into.

The Carpenter comparison to an emotional move is a reach, as a Blue Jay he had 3 seasons with an era plus over 105

I agree with this.

I don't believe that "emotion" is responsible for organizations making good business decisions. Research, analysis and gut instincts don't mean a personnel move was made out of emotion. Certainly there are some human interest stories that help when making moves, but generally those are merely secondary factors for signing a player.

WebScorpion
04-18-2010, 01:24 PM
How about BOTH in the line-up at the same time?

Done and done. Weather permitting.

Yea, but I keep thinking the defense would be much better if they'd play Janish at SS and OCab at 3rd. Does OCab not have enough arm to make the throw from 3rd? He definitely no longer has the range for SS...there's at least a full stride (and I'm being generous here) to his left that should be covered by an AVERAGE SS that he never gets to. And Janish has better range than an average SS...so we're giving up two full strides of coverage up the middle on every play. His arm better be really bad to account for that hole in the defense. :thumbdown

TheNext44
04-20-2010, 11:00 PM
I'm telling you. Janish for cleanup hitter.

.364 .500 .818 1.318

Captain Hook
04-20-2010, 11:13 PM
I'm telling you. Janish for cleanup hitter.

.364 .500 .818 1.318

Put him in LF.Dusty needs to get his bat in the lineup.Not to mention someone playing LF can bat cleanup can't they or is that only 2B that bats 4th?

Guacarock
04-20-2010, 11:54 PM
Something's got to give. We have a team that can't score runs and yet buried on the bench are the three guys -- Janish, Hanigan and Dickerson -- who are not only enjoying hot streaks with their hitting, but are also among our strongest defensive players.

If their bats cool, and more than likely that will happen, they can go back to riding the pines and getting inserted late into games when their gloves will matter more.

But until then, play them. Smarter than losing with hack batters and defenders. Duh.

Ghosts of 1990
04-21-2010, 12:14 AM
Put him in LF.Dusty needs to get his bat in the lineup.Not to mention someone playing LF can bat cleanup can't they or is that only 2B that bats 4th?

Heck put him in center! We won't miss stubbs

Captain Hook
04-21-2010, 12:58 AM
Heck put him in center! We won't miss stubbs

He would have to leadoff if that was done.Although that .462 OBP would look pretty good batting 1st.On the other hand it would be a terrible waste of such a strong slugging %.When I first looked I thought that .818 was Paul's OPS.