PDA

View Full Version : did Walt screw up?



Pages : [1] 2

Will M
04-07-2010, 06:24 PM
Ramon 'singles hitter' Hernandez: $2M
Orlando 'no range' Cabrera: $3M

There were certainly not a lot of prime catchers or shortstops available last winter in the free agent market. Walt chose to patch these positions with Hernandez & Cabrera. The money to do so came from selling Mr Enthusiasm to the As for $1.3M and also from restructuring/extending Rolen's deal.

I have a really bad feeling that the Reds flushed $5M down the toilet. There is already a five page (!) post regarding Cabrera's lack of range. Hernandez had a weak year in 2009 & isn't getting any younger.

So you ask: well if the free agent market was weak what should Walt have done? Easy answer. where's Maloney? stuck in AAA. where's Heisey? in AAA and sitting behind Stubbs on the depth chart. Alonso? AA and trying to learn a new position. Francisco? well he is here for now but most expect him to be headed for AAA on Sunday. My point: should Walt have decided last winter who to keep & who to trade from the prospects bunching up in AA/AAA & used a few of these prospects to swing a deal for a shortsop and/or catcher instead of getting Hernanndez & Cabrera. I say he messed up. what say you?

dougdirt
04-07-2010, 06:26 PM
It is one game so far for Cabrera. I think we may want to give him a little bit of time to see how things go.

Scrap Irony
04-07-2010, 06:29 PM
Sure, he messed up. He should have used Maloney and Alonso and Lehr and gotten Hanley Ramirez, then dealt Hanigan, Wood, Heisey, and Frazier for Joe Mauer.

How dare he not trade for or sign perennial All-Stars! Any GM could see Ramirez and Mauer are better than what they have now.

Homer Bailey
04-07-2010, 06:31 PM
Without looking at the first post, by the thread title, I'm guessing I'm supposed to say yes.

westofyou
04-07-2010, 06:33 PM
Yes. he should have inked Honus Wagner and Johnny Bench, and he should have forced Goldstar to make a veggie version of their 3-way like Skyline.

Will M
04-07-2010, 06:38 PM
Sure, he messed up. He should have used Maloney and Alonso and Lehr and gotten Hanley Ramirez, then dealt Hanigan, Wood, Heisey, and Frazier for Joe Mauer.

How dare he not trade for or sign perennial All-Stars! Any GM could see Ramirez and Mauer are better than what they have now.

thats not what i suggested. lets say he tried to use Alonso, Francisco, Heisey, Maloney & Cozart in discussion with teams to try to find an solid everyday catcher and/or shortstop. maybe a guy like JJ Hardy. or he trades Heisey+ to the Angels for Izturis and signs him to an extension. or pries Suzuki from the As knowing that he'll be arbitration eligible after 2010.

Tom Servo
04-07-2010, 06:39 PM
Walt should have invested that $5 million in the stock market and 401K's and made it into $20M+ to spend on Albert Pujols. The idiot.

pedro
04-07-2010, 06:40 PM
Say what you want about the options he chose but in a thin FA market his options were to sign who was available or trade prospects to fill those holes. Otherwise the Reds would have gone into the season with Janish and Hanigan starting (neither of which I find very palatable) and absolutely nobody available to back up who could even come close to replacement level.

As for trading Heisey, Maloney and/or Francisco? No way way in hell those guys would have brought back two players of Cabrera & Hernandez's caliber (dubious as it is at this point in their careers)

Scrap Irony
04-07-2010, 06:46 PM
thats not what i suggested. lets say he tried to use Alonso, Francisco, Heisey, Maloney & Cozart in discussion with teams to try to find an solid everyday catcher and/or shortstop. maybe a guy like JJ Hardy. or he trades Heisey+ to the Angels for Izturis and signs him to an extension. or pries Suzuki from the As knowing that he'll be arbitration eligible after 2010.

My point (and the point of others on this thread) is that it's extremely likely no one was particularly interested in Cincinnati chaff.

Brutus
04-07-2010, 06:46 PM
I absolutely liked the Hernandez signing. People forget how much he's an asset to the pitching staff, especially Cueto, Chapman, etc.

The Cabrera thing is way too premature to make any sweeping conclusions. I'd like to think that the job Paul Janish did in the spring was a precursor of things to come, but he doesn't have much of a track record to suggest it. Still, we do know he would glove it pretty good.

TheNext44
04-07-2010, 06:47 PM
thats not what i suggested. lets say he tried to use Alonso, Francisco, Heisey, Maloney & Cozart in discussion with teams to try to find an solid everyday catcher and/or shortstop. maybe a guy like JJ Hardy. or he trades Heisey+ to the Angels for Izturis and signs him to an extension. or pries Suzuki from the As knowing that he'll be arbitration eligible after 2010.

We know he tried to get Hardy, but was out bid by the Twins. Maybe he did try to get Izturis and Suzuki, but the price was too high?

And $3M (that's how much they are costing this year above replacement players, not including buyouts) really doesn't buy all that much these days. At worst, Hernandez and Cabrera become properly paid backups.

pedro
04-07-2010, 07:16 PM
Let's say he did trade some of those prospects including Alonso. He still would have had to probably pay at least as much in salary as he's giving Cabrera & Hernandez and the prospects would be gone.

I just don't see much sense in it myself.

jojo
04-07-2010, 07:26 PM
Let's say he did trade some of those prospects including Alonso. He still would have had to probably pay at least as much in salary as he's giving Cabrera & Hernandez and the prospects would be gone.

I just don't see much sense in it myself.

Doesn't the sense in such a scenario depend upon who the Reds got back?

Will M
04-07-2010, 07:28 PM
Pedro/Scrap Irony:
1. i am suprised that you think so little of the prospects we have to suggest they wouldn't bring us back players who were little more than replacement value in 2009 ( OC +0.6 WAR and RH +0.4 )
2. as to the salary issue lets say Walt was able to swing two deals for a C & SS. he gave up talent and paid the players he got the same $5M he is paying OC & RH. Only the players he got were BETTER than OC & RH.

TheNext44:
as to the price he paid these guys you may be right in saying that its not much compared to what other (arguably worse) players got. backup catchers cost $2M on the open market. thats great but we didn't need a backup catcher, we already have one. we needed a starter. maybe its too much to ask. too many holes to fill in one offseason to go from a 78 win team to a 90 win team

pedro
04-07-2010, 07:34 PM
Doesn't the sense in such a scenario depend upon who the Reds got back?

Yes, but I don't think any of the Reds guys still in the minors are good enough to bring back both a starting catcher and a short stop, unless they were salary dumps by other teams and the Reds, as we know, are pretty salary restricted. Nobody was going to trade cheap young talent at those positions unless the Reds absolutely emptied the cupboard. That's my opinion anyway.

Teams just don;t trade starting SS and catchers, even marginal ones, for guys who aren't either uber prospects or proven major league ready.

_Sir_Charles_
04-07-2010, 07:36 PM
I'm not going to say he screwed up. I've got no problem with EITHER signing. I think Hernandez will have a much better season than last year. But I don't want him starting all the time. 50% split with him and Hanigan is what I'd like to see. In regards to Cabrera...if he hits, fine. If not, Janish-time. But either way, we needed another SS. So whether Orlando's the starter or the backup...he WAS needed.

TeamBoone
04-07-2010, 07:39 PM
IMHO, it'salittletooearlytosay.....

westofyou
04-07-2010, 07:45 PM
SS is the most prized fielding position to fill in MLB, it's hard to fill from outside of the organization, especially when you are targeting players younger than 30.

The ones that end up there have warts too, like Greene and Hardy... then you get the price that THEY will cost to go along with the warts, it's a bit of a highwire act. Over the past few decades you can likely count the young SS that got traded and rocked on elsewhere on one hand.

To suggest it is completely different than actually doing it.

pedro
04-07-2010, 07:54 PM
I will say this. In 2011 the Reds are still going to need a new catcher and probably a SS. Maybe by then Alonso and Heisey and one or more of the pitchers will have increased their worth enough to bring back decent players to fill those holes. Especially if Chapman and Leake pan out and Volquez comes back thus opening up the potential of getting someone to take Arroyo and/or Harang in a salary dump then allowing the Reds to take on more salary at SS/C.

I just don't think the opportunity was there this past offseason.

dougdirt
04-07-2010, 07:59 PM
I will say this. In 2011 the Reds are still going to need a new catcher and probably a SS. Maybe by then Alonso and Heisey and one or more of the pitchers will have increased their worth enough to bring back decent players to fill those holes. Especially if Chapman and Leake pan out and Volquez comes back thus opening up the potential of getting someone to take Arroyo and/or Harang in a salary dump then allowing the Reds to take on more salary at SS/C.

I just don't think the opportunity was there this past offseason.

I figure Zack Cozart will be the shortstop in 2011. Who backs up Hanigan though will be a question that likely won't be answered until sometime in the offseason.

Spring~Fields
04-07-2010, 08:13 PM
did Walt screw up?
Just a little bit early with that question.

A. Not yet, Walt is still playing the cards that O’Brien and Krivsky worked to achieve and that they gave him.

B. Not yet, can’t completely fault Walt for having a manager that wants experienced players, check back in June

C. Too soon for St. Louis, Chicago and Milwaukee to pull away, check back, second week of May to the first two weeks of June

D. Too soon for the excuses, check back in June

E. Too soon for the players to revolt over playing time, check back in June/July

F. Too soon for Hernandez and Rolen to hit the DL, check back in August

G. Still time, for Woods and Chapman to replace Cueto and Harang, check back in August

H. Too soon, to see how the RS and RA DIFF is going, check back in July

I. Too soon, for talk shows, message boards, blogs and fans to melt down over Dusty Baker’s lineups, player usage, and win loss results, check back, first week of June. They've already started to warm up.

J. Not yet, it is yet to be determined who will be managing for Walt in 2011

2112, too soon to see if he can catch up with St. Louis, Chicago, and Milwaukee who have always been improving for twelve years now, while the Reds are still trying to improve over past bad Reds teams.


Did they already have a catcher and shortstop sure, but they did need good backups and the bench is better equipped with experienced aging declining vets for those rolls. He has those now.

Mario-Rijo
04-07-2010, 08:24 PM
As to the main question I'd say no and I'll live with that regardless of the outcome. If I could be more specific though I'd say I was hoping they would allow Hanigan to be the primary starter and hoping they passed on Ramon completely or gave him a lesser deal and ask him to back up at most. I like Ramon just was hoping to have an elite defender behind the plate and Hanigan fits that bill. And as much respect I have for Pedro's opinion I would disagree about Hanigan being a starter I think he also brings a decent complimentary offensive game to that defense. He struggled at times driving in runs because he was obviously pressing in those situations, but I think he will get better there.

At SS I definitely was pleased with the signing of OCab because after watching Paul last season (a season in which he came in improved offensively due to offseason strength training) I was finally convinced Paul isn't/wasn't gonna ever be adequate offensively. Certainly he could have a little luck some season and hit .240 or .250 and someone would then argue differently but he isn't a starting major leaguer IMO. Orlando isn't ideal but he isn't a black hole either and should produce adequately overall. My preference would be a Yunel Escobar or even a bare minimum guy like Macier Izturis but Cabrera is better than what we had available to us IMO.

As for 2011 I would hope Cozart is ready at SS and perhaps a guy like Denove would be adequate as a backup to Hanny.

fearofpopvol1
04-07-2010, 08:25 PM
I figure Zack Cozart will be the shortstop in 2011. Who backs up Hanigan though will be a question that likely won't be answered until sometime in the offseason.

I sure hope so. Cozart could be big for the Reds if he continues to develop this year.

pedro
04-07-2010, 08:28 PM
I figure Zack Cozart will be the shortstop in 2011. Who backs up Hanigan though will be a question that likely won't be answered until sometime in the offseason.

If cozart hits well enough at AAA this year to prove he can be the starting SS next year the Reds might not even wait that long.

As for Hanigan, I think he's a good back up catcher but I don't think he should be starting. I just have a hard time believing he has enough pop to sustain his OBP and honestly having a #8 hitter who's only skill is taking walks really isn't that great a situation.

Mario-Rijo
04-07-2010, 08:33 PM
If cozart hits well enough at AAA this year to prove he can be the starting SS next year the Reds might not even wait that long.

As for Hanigan, I think he's a good back up catcher but I don't think he should be starting. I just have a hard time believing he has enough pop to sustain his OBP and honestly having a #8 hitter who's only skill is taking walks really isn't that great a situation.

I'd disagree on Hanigan I don't think that is his only skill that makes him starting worthy. #1 His defense is top notch which is imperative and #2 he is a solid contact hitter as well. So as long as he doesn't start swinging at stuff he can't do much with (and he rarely does this) he has plenty enough skill to start and be solidly productive.

pedro
04-07-2010, 08:40 PM
I'd disagree on Hanigan I don't think that is his only skill that makes him starting worthy. #1 His defense is top notch which is imperative and #2 he is a solid contact hitter as well. So as long as he doesn't start swinging at stuff he can't do much with (and he rarely does this) he has plenty enough skill to start and be solidly productive.

I agree he's good enough defensively. I'm just a bit sceptical offensively. I just feel like anytime he comes to bat with runners on he isn't going to be able to do much but take a walk. I hope he proves me wrong though.

Mario-Rijo
04-07-2010, 08:43 PM
I agree he's good enough defensively. I'm just a bit sceptical offensively. I just feel like anytime he comes to bat with runners on he isn't going to be able to do much but take a walk. I hope he proves me wrong though.

Fair enough, nothing wrong with making them prove it.

pedro
04-07-2010, 08:51 PM
I guess I'll close my comments here by saying that if Cozart and Hanigan are really the answers for 2011 then Walt definitely didn't screw up by not trading prospects for one year stop gaps.

westofyou
04-07-2010, 08:54 PM
I guess I'll close my comments here by saying that if Cozart and Hanigan are really the answers for 2011 then Walt definitely didn't screw up by not trading prospects for one year stop gaps.

Catchers that are almost 30 don't need stopgaps, they need starters to back up.

HokieRed
04-07-2010, 10:21 PM
I like Hanigan but fear he will struggle to put up a .650 if called on to start more than half the games. I continue to think that splitting Hanigan and Ramon can give us league average catching this year and it will be hard to do better next year. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that Cozart is the answer next year, but I'm no more than 75% convinced about this. Still a lot of work to do on these two spots, but it seems way too early to conclude that Walt has screwed up on them for this year.

Reds1
04-07-2010, 11:05 PM
Never fails. Talk negative and those guys have nice games. I think OC hit Hernadez in tonight on a key 2 out hit after hitting a 2 run HR and making a decent defense play. Just too early to knock these guys. Seems to me Bruce gets a pass and he's looked awful at the plate. Cubs are 0-2 also. Need to pull out tomorrow and it will be all good.

Will M
04-07-2010, 11:36 PM
Never fails. Talk negative and those guys have nice games. I think OC hit Hernadez in tonight on a key 2 out hit after hitting a 2 run HR and making a decent defense play. Just too early to knock these guys. Seems to me Bruce gets a pass and he's looked awful at the plate. Cubs are 0-2 also. Need to pull out tomorrow and it will be all good.

i'm going to complain about everybody on the team prior to every game this year. that way we'll win em all! :D

Spring~Fields
04-08-2010, 01:59 AM
Never fails. Talk negative and those guys have nice games. I think OC hit Hernadez in tonight on a key 2 out hit after hitting a 2 run HR and making a decent defense play. Just too early to knock these guys. Seems to me Bruce gets a pass and he's looked awful at the plate. Cubs are 0-2 also. Need to pull out tomorrow and it will be all good.

True, plus it works the other way too, say something very complimentary, especially write it, and they will go south.

Cabrera is going to get his slugging numbers if healthy.

fearofpopvol1
04-08-2010, 03:17 AM
I don't think Walt screwed up. I feel like these signings were neutral. The Reds had to fill positions, they had a thin market for both of them and limited financial resources. I don't think he could've really done any better. Who would you have realistically subbed in for these guys that would've been both cost effective and productive?

Will M
04-17-2010, 11:18 AM
1. the season is early so i am withholding final judgement on Ramon

2. however, one thing is already crystal clear to me: IMO Orlando Cabrera has no business being a starting shortstop on a major league team. His bat is not the problem. Even though he is off to a poor start offensively there is no reason to think he won't hit close to the OPS+ of ~90 he did last year & for his career.

the problem is his lack of defense. his range is terrible. his bad defensive stats from 2009 look like the real deal.

do the Reds have scouts that watch major league games? if they do then the scout who told Walt that Cabrera was still ok defensively was very very wrong.

Spring~Fields
04-17-2010, 11:38 AM
I don't think Walt screwed up. I feel like these signings were neutral. The Reds had to fill positions, they had a thin market for both of them and limited financial resources. I don't think he could've really done any better. Who would you have realistically subbed in for these guys that would've been both cost effective and productive?

Maybe Janish over Cabrera
Maybe Hanigan over Hernadez
Maybe Dickerson over Nix
Maybe Sutton over Cairo

kbrake
04-17-2010, 12:08 PM
Cabrera is not even close to the problem with this team. Is he a part of the problem? Maybe but I think more than anything Redszone needs a face for their frustration and through 11 games no one fills that need more than Cabrera.

I guess it is easier than accepting the reality that all the beloved Redszone prospects are not only not living up to the potential but are falling way short of that potential. Bruce, Stubbs, Cueto, Bailey, and even Votto have not played well at all this year. I understand that its only 11 games and I hope these guys figure it out sooner rather than later but the beating Cabrera takes gets old.

Spring~Fields
04-17-2010, 12:16 PM
Cabrera is not even close to the problem with this team. Is he a part of the problem? Maybe but I think more than anything Redszone needs a face for their frustration and through 11 games no one fills that need more than Cabrera.



This team has many problems, not just one in Cabrera.

Did Walt screw up?

Hoosier Red
04-17-2010, 12:17 PM
I agree KBrake, I think Janish should get more playing time but the struggles of Bruce, Votto, Cueto and Bailey show the folly in not signing someone like Cabrera and Hernandez.

Young players do not just consistently get better and the backup options behind Janish and Hanigan were completely unacceptable. If Janish and Hanigan didn't live up to expectations there was no one behind them that we could count on.

kbrake
04-17-2010, 12:20 PM
On Cabrera? No, I still don't think he screwed up. I know I will probably get killed for this but I know last night with Dickerson on 3rd and less than two outs there was no one I'd rather have at the plate than Cabrera. I felt extremely confident with him up in that situation.

Where Walt made a mistake and had plenty of support from Reds fans and Reds media was dealing his LF and never putting together a real plan to replace that offense. If this team had a legit bat in LF it would make playing Janish much easier.

paulrichjr
04-17-2010, 12:21 PM
do the Reds have scouts that watch major league games? if they do then the scout who told Walt that Cabrera was still ok defensively was very very wrong.

This is not meant to be a Krivs vs. Walt post as much as it is just a question that was spurred by this post. Does it seem that Krivs could find some major diamonds in the rough and made less mistakes than Walt when it comes to situations like this? Look at some of the talent picked up by Krivs in just a very short time...Loshe, Cody Ross, Cantu, Phillips, Hamilton, Volquez. I remember talk during some of these pickups of his scout friends saying they were worth taking a shot on. This to me is Walt's biggest weakness....he does seem to make decisions without either 1. looking at the stats or 2. looking at the player. I am frankly amazed at how many times people on here that are stat freaks are right about players such as Cabrera and Taveras.

Kc61
04-17-2010, 12:24 PM
This team has many problems, not just one in Cabrera.

Did Walt screw up?

I think Walt should have bolstered the bullpen. I felt that way all winter. That part bothers me.

Otherwise, it's a building team with a lot of young players which is likely to suffer inconsistency. At some point the bats will come alive and the team will hit better and do better.

Spring~Fields
04-17-2010, 12:29 PM
I think Walt should have bolstered the bullpen. I felt that way all winter. That part bothers me.

Otherwise, it's a building team with a lot of young players which is likely to suffer inconsistency. At some point the bats will come alive and the team will hit better and do better.

Well if the bullpen needed bolstered, you're right then, it would follow that the starting pitching to go deeper into games needed bolstered too.

I agree with you on most points, but the teams average age is 29 not 23.



Position Player Age Yrs Experience
Cabrera 35 13
Cairo 35 14
Rolen 35 14
Hernandez 33 11
Gomes 29 7
Nix 29 7
Hanigan 29 3
Phillips 28 8
Dickerson 28 2
Janish 27 2
Votto 26 3
Stubbs 25 0
Bruce 23 2

Av'g age 29

13 position players 382/13 = 29.384

Pitching
Arthur Rhodes 40 18
Mike Lincoln 35 8
F. Cordero 34 11
Bronson Arroyo 33 10
Aaron Harang 31 8
Nick Masset 27 4
Owings 27 3
Herrera 25 2
Ondrusek 25 0
Cueto 24 2
Bailey 23 3
Leake 22 0


Roster Analysis, AVG AGE 29.1
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/roster?team=cin&type=active


WJ did not address the on base percentages against right handed pitching, I know that you and several others, respectfully, know that. He was quoted as having wanted experienced players, he has them in Phillips, Rolen, Cabrera, Gomes, Nix, Hernandez, and Cairo, along with experienced bullpen and starting.

edabbs44
04-17-2010, 12:38 PM
This is not meant to be a Krivs vs. Walt post as much as it is just a question that was spurred by this post. Does it seem that Krivs could find some major diamonds in the rough and made less mistakes than Walt when it comes to situations like this? Look at some of the talent picked up by Krivs in just a very short time...Loshe, Cody Ross, Cantu, Phillips, Hamilton, Volquez. I remember talk during some of these pickups of his scout friends saying they were worth taking a shot on. This to me is Walt's biggest weakness....he does seem to make decisions without either 1. looking at the stats or 2. looking at the player. I am frankly amazed at how many times people on here that are stat freaks are right about players such as Cabrera and Taveras.

Seriously?

Kc61
04-17-2010, 12:38 PM
Well if the bullpen needed bolstered, you're right then, it would follow that the starting pitching to go deeper into games needed bolstered too.

I agree with you on most points, but the teams average age is 29 not 23.

WJ did not address the on base percentages against right handed pitching, I know that you and several others, respectfully, know that. He was quoted as having wanted experienced players, he has them in Phillips, Rolen, Cabrera, Gomes, Nix, Hernandez, and Cairo, along with experienced bullpen and starting.

Walt got veterans, but not guys in their prime. Most of the vets are older players, affordable to the Reds, who should play complimentary roles at this stage.

The upside on this team is with the young players, many of whom are struggling right now. If they progress, the team will do better.

As for the pitching, Walt did go out and get Leake and Chapman as starters. But despite Weathers' departure and Burton's recent performance, the team didn't add any proven bullpen guys. This is hurting right now.

Spring~Fields
04-17-2010, 01:14 PM
Walt got veterans, but not guys in their prime. Most of the vets are older players, affordable to the Reds, who should play complimentary roles at this stage.

The upside on this team is with the young players, many of whom are struggling right now. If they progress, the team will do better.

As for the pitching, Walt did go out and get Leake and Chapman as starters. But despite Weathers' departure and Burton's recent performance, the team didn't add any proven bullpen guys. This is hurting right now.

I agree with you.

Plus the defense from the SS isn't that good, defenses hinder or help the pitching.

I just don't think that we should expect this set of players to get better than what they have done in the past three years. With their below .800 ops, especially against right handed pitching, there are too many of them.



Three year splits BA OBP SLG OPS
Phillips
vs. Left .316 .361 .581 .942
vs. Right .259 .310 .410 .720
Experience 8 years

Cabrera
vs. Left .282 .348 .404 .752
vs. Right .291 .326 .379 .705
Experience 13 years

Rolen
vs. Left .280 .381 .437 .818
vs. Right .279 .340 .427 .767
Experience 14 years

Gomes
vs. Left .250 .333 .750 1.083
vs. Right .261 .280 .478 .758
Experience 7 years

Hernandez
vs. Left .274 .328 .396 .724
vs. Right .251 .322 .383 .705
Experience 11 years

Nix
vs. Left .139 .184 .222 .406
vs. Right .236 .287 .471 .758
Experience 7 years

Cairo
vs. Left .258 .333 .351 .684
vs. Right .249 .294 .332 .626
Experience 14 years

TheNext44
04-17-2010, 02:28 PM
Walt did not screw up on Cabrera as long as he makes sure that he is moved to the bench if his defense doesn't improve. To me, the key to the deal was that the Reds needed another infielder as insurance for Janish. Cabrera should be fine in that role, and is getting paid accordingly.

If Cabrera continues with this lack of range and starts over 100 games, than I do blame Walt.

Hoosier Red
04-17-2010, 02:37 PM
Walt got veterans, but not guys in their prime. Most of the vets are older players, affordable to the Reds, who should play complimentary roles at this stage.

The upside on this team is with the young players, many of whom are struggling right now. If they progress, the team will do better.

As for the pitching, Walt did go out and get Leake and Chapman as starters. But despite Weathers' departure and Burton's recent performance, the team didn't add any proven bullpen guys. This is hurting right now.

If the starters went 6-7 innings as opposed to 5-6 innings then the relief pitching will improve. The main problem has been that middle relievers like Owings(though he's pitched well), Lincoln, and Ondrusek are pitching too many innings.

Herrera, Rhodes, and Cordero have been good.
Masset has been average after the opening day disaster.

REDblooded
04-17-2010, 02:46 PM
These types of signings have been a Jocketty signature going back to StL and it worked out ok there... He fills the team with a few studs and then surrounds them with declining veterans in a few areas. I'm ok with the idea. He's still rather hamstrung by having contracts like Harang's and didn't have a ton to work with... I'm sure he's been in discussions with some of the minor league depth, but if he's not getting offers that he likes then there's no point in making a move for the sake of making a move...

I do like having OCab on the team though... He's a bit more emotional and outspoken then what the team previously had and I think a personality like that has been needed for a while. The personality make-up of the team for far too long has been a bunch of guys that, while I'm sure they care deeply, don't always play with a ton of emotion... Too much emotion can be bad for a team if the emotion goes the wrong way, but it's also the type of thing that can really carry a team if it gets hot... I think of teams like the Angels championship contenders, the Rockies a few seasons ago, and those are teams that had talent, but really played to the best of their abilities once they got rolling and everybody looked like they were having fun...

M2
04-17-2010, 02:50 PM
I will say this. In 2011 the Reds are still going to need a new catcher and probably a SS.

Yep, though I'm not sure Jocketty will be the guy shopping for them. When it comes time to punt this season, I expect Walt to tell Castellini that his heart isn't fully into a rebuilding project.

redsmetz
04-17-2010, 03:26 PM
Yep, though I'm not sure Jocketty will be the guy shopping for them. When it comes time to punt this season, I expect Walt to tell Castellini that his heart isn't fully into a rebuilding project.

Why is trying to fill the need for a catcher and a shortstop "a rebuilding project"? Seems to me many pieces are coming together. Filling those needs don't constitute, IMO, a rebuilding.

bucksfan2
04-17-2010, 03:40 PM
Quite frankly I saw enough in Janish last night not to want him in the starting lineup game in game out. How many first pitch outs did he make last night? That was an awful at bat after the Pitt staff had 6 walkes in a row to force in 2 runs. Janish poped out in foul territory to end that rally. He just doesn't have major league ability at the plate.

Cabrera has not had a good defensive start to the season. I would give him much more time in order to get things worked out. If this team has to revert to Janish their offensive takes another hit, which at this point is unacceptable.

_Sir_Charles_
04-17-2010, 04:12 PM
Quite frankly I saw enough in Janish last night not to want him in the starting lineup game in game out. How many first pitch outs did he make last night? That was an awful at bat after the Pitt staff had 6 walkes in a row to force in 2 runs. Janish poped out in foul territory to end that rally. He just doesn't have major league ability at the plate.

Cabrera has not had a good defensive start to the season. I would give him much more time in order to get things worked out. If this team has to revert to Janish their offensive takes another hit, which at this point is unacceptable.

So, what exactly would you have liked Janish to do there? Both those pitches were strikes. Clearly strikes. He could've shown patience and could've been down 0-2...pretty much at the pitchers mercy at that point. If the pitches were borderline...I could expect people here to say he should force the pitcher to throw strikes. But he WAS throwing strikes...at least to Paul. The ball he popped out on was a meatball right down the heart of the dish.

I'm curious as to which result would've been viewed more critically. Strike out looking...or popping out? If you see a pitch you can drive and one that's in the zone, letting it sail past serves no purpose, does it?

M2
04-17-2010, 04:21 PM
Why is trying to fill the need for a catcher and a shortstop "a rebuilding project"? Seems to me many pieces are coming together. Filling those needs don't constitute, IMO, a rebuilding.

What pieces are those? I must have missed all the young position players on the Reds who've ensconced themselves as regulars for the foreseeable future.

Seems to me SS and C are just two items on a laundry list.

WMR
04-17-2010, 04:23 PM
What pieces are those? I must have missed all the young position players on the Reds who've ensconced themselves as regulars for the foreseeable future.

Seems to me SS and C are just two items on a laundry list.

Yup. A bunch more questions than answers right now.

nate
04-17-2010, 04:26 PM
I can't really understand determining the usefulness of a player after a single game. While Janish isn't a world beater with the stick, he is with the glove. Cabrera might be OK with the stick but is he the the 8.0 and 14.0 UZR from 3 years ago or is he the -15.3 UZR from last year? Throughout his career, his glove has generally been average or better but kind of all over the place in "how good" it is.

Small sample size fun:

2010 wOBA
Janish: .521
Cabrera: .250

Falls City Beer
04-17-2010, 04:33 PM
Yep, though I'm not sure Jocketty will be the guy shopping for them. When it comes time to punt this season, I expect Walt to tell Castellini that his heart isn't fully into a rebuilding project.

Possibly, but all Jocketty's done since arriving has been dumping expensive veterans and overpromoting overrated minor league prospects. I guess he might have been brought in exclusively for the tear-down of the Bowden/O'Brien/Krivsky bubble.

M2
04-17-2010, 05:11 PM
Possibly, but all Jocketty's done since arriving has been dumping expensive veterans and overpromoting overrated minor league prospects. I guess he might have been brought in exclusively for the tear-down of the Bowden/O'Brien/Krivsky bubble.

I think we fans invent continuity and rationale where they don't exist, mostly in an attempt to keep ourselves sane. Jocketty was brought in to be the GM of the club. Pretty much every GM who doesn't come in preaching a five-year plan thinks he can make it work in the near term.

As we all know, the Reds go into every season with the conviction that this is going to be the season the franchise turns it around. There's usually plenty of aiders and abettors in the media picking the Reds as a sleeper team too. Mind you, the last time anyone was right about that the Reds had just acquired one of the top LHPs in baseball, a guy coming off a 50-HR season and a super-athletic young CF to hit at the top of the lineup.

Anyway, this season strikes me as being Walt's best faith attempt to cobble something around a returning club that has key players improving in lockstep. He knows the franchise is going part with a number of veteran players if it doesn't pan out. Did he screw up? Too early to say, but I'd say what he did most was hope. He hoped the club would spontaneously erupt into contendership and he hoped guys like Cabrera and Hernandez could be working parts on a strong team. FWIW, maybe they can be, but the Reds so far don't look like that team. Cabrera looked plenty lost in Oakland last season too and then he became a key contributor to the Twins' playoff run.

So if it comes time to dismantle his best faith effort, I'm thinking Walt informs Castellini that this means a five-year plan and that Cast needs to find a new GM to sell that to the fans. Walt may serve out the season, selling off guys like Harang and Arroyo as best he can, but after that I'd expect him to gracefully step aside. I don't think he needs this type of aggravation.

Kc61
04-17-2010, 05:30 PM
So if it comes time to dismantle his best faith effort, I'm thinking Walt informs Castellini that this means a five-year plan and that Cast needs to find a new GM to sell that to the fans. Walt may serve out the season, selling off guys like Harang and Arroyo as best he can, but after that I'd expect him to gracefully step aside. I don't think he needs this type of aggravation.

Shouldn't be another five year plan. Arroyo and Harang contracts are ending, which should provide payflex to go into the free agent market next year. If Reds are going to spend for good veterans, next off-season should be the time.

In addition, hopefully some of the prospects will have trade value, which can yield still more good players.

In other words, Reds should have the currency to acquire some good veteran players next winter. Doesn't mean they will, but they could.

Falls City Beer
04-17-2010, 05:41 PM
I think we fans invent continuity and rationale where they don't exist, mostly in an attempt to keep ourselves sane. Jocketty was brought in to be the GM of the club. Pretty much every GM who doesn't come in preaching a five-year plan thinks he can make it work in the near term.

As we all know, the Reds go into every season with the conviction that this is going to be the season the franchise turns it around. There's usually plenty of aiders and abettors in the media picking the Reds as a sleeper team too. Mind you, the last time anyone was right about that the Reds had just acquired one of the top LHPs in baseball, a guy coming off a 50-HR season and a super-athletic young CF to hit at the top of the lineup.

Anyway, this season strikes me as being Walt's best faith attempt to cobble something around a returning club that has key players improving in lockstep. He knows the franchise is going part with a number of veteran players if it doesn't pan out. Did he screw up? Too early to say, but I'd say what he did most was hope. He hoped the club would spontaneously erupt into contendership and he hoped guys like Cabrera and Hernandez could be working parts on a strong team. FWIW, maybe they can be, but the Reds so far don't look like that team. Cabrera looked plenty lost in Oakland last season too and then he became a key contributor to the Twins' playoff run.

So if it comes time to dismantle his best faith effort, I'm thinking Walt informs Castellini that this means a five-year plan and that Cast needs to find a new GM to sell that to the fans. Walt may serve out the season, selling off guys like Harang and Arroyo as best he can, but after that I'd expect him to gracefully step aside. I don't think he needs this type of aggravation.

Good points. I think wholesale self-delusion is simply a part of most businesses. And when you've been as chaotic and clueless as the Reds' organization has been for years, small glimmers of life can be confused for talent.

Spring~Fields
04-17-2010, 05:45 PM
Shouldn't be another five year plan. Arroyo and Harang contracts are ending, which should provide payflex to go into the free agent market next year. If Reds are going to spend for good veterans, next off-season should be the time.
In addition, hopefully some of the prospects will have trade value, which can yield still more good players.

In other words, Reds should have the currency to acquire some good veteran players next winter. Doesn't mean they will, but they could.

Still a lot of potential barriers there too. If Harang and Arroyo are gone and that frees up that money, the Reds will want to replace them with major league experienced pitchers. Cost, availability, quality, and if a quality pitcher is interested in signing with the Reds vs NY, Boston or the other coast. The young pitching that the Reds have has to become better and more consistent than they are. You have already spoken to the bullpen. We each are a bit frustrated with the entire outfield. Bats and gloves cost money, if they are available and would sign with the Reds. Still no bench to speak of. Most will want that magical shortstop, that is probably not out there, and will cost. We already know of the right handed splits for hitters. Someone said catcher, and Rolen and his back. Oh yeah, and that small market barrier.

Anyway on and on. Sigh

The Reds and we fans probably better hope that the younger players show up this year, and next. Along with a staff that believes and shows confidence in them, while being able to get them to perform like they belong here.

Benihana
04-17-2010, 05:47 PM
I think we fans invent continuity and rationale where they don't exist, mostly in an attempt to keep ourselves sane. Jocketty was brought in to be the GM of the club. Pretty much every GM who doesn't come in preaching a five-year plan thinks he can make it work in the near term.

As we all know, the Reds go into every season with the conviction that this is going to be the season the franchise turns it around. There's usually plenty of aiders and abettors in the media picking the Reds as a sleeper team too. Mind you, the last time anyone was right about that the Reds had just acquired one of the top LHPs in baseball, a guy coming off a 50-HR season and a super-athletic young CF to hit at the top of the lineup.

Anyway, this season strikes me as being Walt's best faith attempt to cobble something around a returning club that has key players improving in lockstep. He knows the franchise is going part with a number of veteran players if it doesn't pan out. Did he screw up? Too early to say, but I'd say what he did most was hope. He hoped the club would spontaneously erupt into contendership and he hoped guys like Cabrera and Hernandez could be working parts on a strong team. FWIW, maybe they can be, but the Reds so far don't look like that team. Cabrera looked plenty lost in Oakland last season too and then he became a key contributor to the Twins' playoff run.

So if it comes time to dismantle his best faith effort, I'm thinking Walt informs Castellini that this means a five-year plan and that Cast needs to find a new GM to sell that to the fans. Walt may serve out the season, selling off guys like Harang and Arroyo as best he can, but after that I'd expect him to gracefully step aside. I don't think he needs this type of aggravation.

But the thing is, this time it IS different.

The Reds have never had so much young pitching talent. And while I'd caution that talent and potential clearly don't equate to on-field performance (the Reds are the best example of that), there are a lot more valuable chips in this organization than there have been in the past.

If what the Reds really need is one bona fide SP, one bona fide OF, and perhaps a solution to either the SS or C problem, I believe they have enough right now to go out and get it. It would take a lot of cajones, but if Walt is as good as he supposedly is, he can figure out who the Blake Stein is he needs to trade to go get McGwire.

The fact of the matter is, the Reds need a legitimate LF, and then they can platoon Jonny Gomes with Bruce if Bruce doesn't come around. Votto, Phillips, Cabrera and Rolen are as good of an infield as you'll find anywhere in the National League outside of Philly. Dickerson is proving that he can be the legitimate, super-athletic leadoff guy in CF as long as he can stay healthy.

CF Dickerson
1B Votto
3B Rolen
LF This is where Walt comes in
2B Phillips
RF Bruce/Gomes
SS Cabrera
C Hernandez

Take Yonder Alonso, Todd Frazier, Chris Heisey, Drew Stubbs, Juan Francisco, and your pick from Cueto/Bailey/Volquez/Wood, and figure out who to trade for a moster LF and a bona fide SP (probably going to be two separate trades) and voila, you have your instant contender.

The key is figuring out which prospects to trade, and having the actual cojones to do it. I can't think of someone with a better track record of doing that than Walt Jocketty. So let's see if he can't make it happen.

Falls City Beer
04-17-2010, 05:48 PM
Don't the Reds owe Harang and Arroyo a ton of cash to go away? I can't imagine that whatever is saved will be put towards a TOR arm.

Benihana
04-17-2010, 05:55 PM
Don't the Reds owe Harang and Arroyo a ton of cash to go away? I can't imagine that whatever is saved will be put towards a TOR arm.

I thought that they each have $2MM buyouts? Arroyo is very tradeable right now if they wanted to, so that would leave a total of $2MM owed to Harang. That would leave roughly $20MM to spend on a TOR if they were so inclined.

My guess is that it would have to be a trade, seeing as how the Reds' competitive advantage for acquiring such a player would be talent, not money. Who will be this year's Cliff Lee?

Benihana
04-17-2010, 06:10 PM
Given my post above, I was thinking of potential matchups. Houston is an obvious fit if they continue to flounder, but it does present high risk trading within the division.

Here's an interesting question. Would you trade Alonso, Stubbs and Bailey for Oswalt and Berkman? Oswalt and Lee?

Houston would be giving up two of their franchise icons, but they are aging and Houston needs to rebuild. They would be getting two Texas kids and a 1B to continue in the Davis-Bagwell-Berkman legacy.

While I am not sure if I would pull the trigger (there would surely be cost concerns, and the Reds would have to find a taker for Harang before they could consider such a deal), it would be this type of outside-the-box, high risk move that would propel the Reds out of their perpetual prospect funk. If you thought the Stewart-Rolen deal caused controversy, look out!

M2
04-17-2010, 07:08 PM
Shouldn't be another five year plan.

Another one? The team never had a first five-year plan. The Reds have been conspicuous in staying away from a structured, long-term rebuild.

My guess is if this edition fails the Reds won't be spending on any meaningful free agents. First, the team will be looking to collect younger bodies. Second, coveted vets won't be too keen to take the Reds' money when established contenders with established players are also bidding for their services.

I actually think 10 years in wilderness and the crumbling of the latest longshot plan to conquer the world will beget something new with the Reds - a square one mentality.

And I suspect Jocketty will decide he's too old to go back to square one.

bucksfan2
04-17-2010, 07:11 PM
So, what exactly would you have liked Janish to do there? Both those pitches were strikes. Clearly strikes. He could've shown patience and could've been down 0-2...pretty much at the pitchers mercy at that point. If the pitches were borderline...I could expect people here to say he should force the pitcher to throw strikes. But he WAS throwing strikes...at least to Paul. The ball he popped out on was a meatball right down the heart of the dish.

I'm curious as to which result would've been viewed more critically. Strike out looking...or popping out? If you see a pitch you can drive and one that's in the zone, letting it sail past serves no purpose, does it?

My issue with Janish is that he has no power to speak of. Last night was a microcosm of Janish's inabilities at the plate. If your going to swing at the first pitch in an at bat you need to find a pitch to drive. In the at bat with the bases loaded he was over powered by the pitcher. Maybe the ball was a meatball but he put a weak swing on it and poped out in foul ground the the 3b. He just doesn't have the offensive game to warrant playing every day, hence the reason Cabrera was brought in.

I agree that its tough to make judgements based upon one game or even a couple of games. But what is troubling about Janish is that when a pitcher is making pitches Janish is going to be completely overmatched. I really dont' want to hear about good spring training stats because those are mostly useless. I would like Janish to be successful at the plate because that would help the team out but I just don't see it.

Benihana
04-17-2010, 07:21 PM
Another one? The team never had a first five-year plan.

Sure they did. Wait til 2003, remember? ;)


The Reds have been conspicuous in staying away from a structured, long-term rebuild.

Can't argue with that.


My guess is if this edition fails the Reds won't be spending on any meaningful free agents. First, the team will be looking to collect younger bodies. Second, coveted vets won't be too keen to take the Reds' money when established contenders with established players are also bidding for their services.

I actually think 10 years in wilderness and the crumbling of the latest longshot plan to conquer the world will beget something new with the Reds - a square one mentality.

And I suspect Jocketty will decide he's too old to go back to square one.

Here is where I disagree. I can't see this team going back to a square one situation for a different reason than what has plagued them in the past.

Unlike the dozens of times when we cried for a total tear down and rebuild, this time I don't think they need it.

They do need to plug some serious holes, and figure out which, if any, of the current pitchers are going to be true long term fixtures in the rotation (Bailey, Cueto, Volquez, Wood, Maloney, etc.) They also need to gauge whether Bruce and Stubbs will ever be for real or whether they were mere flashes in the pan. The entire Reds scouting and development department from the last 5 years' future hinges on those questions.

However, like I said above, Votto, Phillips, Rolen, and hopefully Dickerson are all here to stay. Ditto for Leake, Chapman, and several of the bullpen arms. While almost everybody else is a question mark, that is a lot fewer question marks than they've had in the past.

M2
04-17-2010, 07:29 PM
But the thing is, this time it IS different.

I see what you're driving at, but I'm not as bully on this collection of players.

For instance, I don't think the team can survive Jay Bruce not being a damn good player this season. If he's less than that I don't think the Reds have a workable lineup.

I also think that LF needed to be acquired before the season. By the time other teams start shopping talent, it might be a moot point for the Reds (who are just as likely to be in sell mode themselves).

I also think the young pitching isn't ready for primetime. Leake was a stellar draft pick, but he's going to take a little time to adjust. Chapman's got the velo, but he's going to need to refine his pitching a bit in order to be a major league starter (reliever is a different proposition). Volquez is still working his way back from injury. Bailey is Bailey - always falling apart just when you think you can count on him and then resurrecting himself just when you think he's hopeless. Cueto needs to make the theory that he's going to progress more than a fond notion (he's at a bit of a crossroads this season).

It might be 2012 before that group truly comes together and there might be a casualty or two along the way.

What might be different this time around is the young pitching could cause the Reds to exercise some patience. If they've got two years before the window opens and then they expect it to stay open for a few years, then they might look to add younger, foundational pieces as opportunities present themselves - e.g. a SS here and a C there.

TheNext44
04-17-2010, 10:03 PM
Another one? The team never had a first five-year plan. The Reds have been conspicuous in staying away from a structured, long-term rebuild.

Until Jocketty took over and started the first one for the Reds since the 80's.

Right now the team is in the middle of year three, and looks to be a bit ahead of the pace. Just a bit.

This current 25 man team is not going to seriously contend, but the organization for the first time since the late 80's has depth at nearly every position throughout the organization.

They are definitely missing offensive stars, but are poised to pick one up next off-season. Jocketty has executed his plan to near perfection so far, his only hiccups being signing some bad players to small short term contracts, but none of them have affected the overall plan.

There is no reason to think that Jocketty will not follow through on this plan, or stay with it. And more importantly, the pieces are all in place for him to do it. The Reds have a surplus of young talent that he can parlay into a the big star(s) that this team is missing. He did this many times in St. Louis, and I fully expect him to do it again here in Cincinnati.

edabbs44
04-17-2010, 11:11 PM
Until Jocketty took over and started the first one for the Reds since the 80's.

Right now the team is in the middle of year three, and looks to be a bit ahead of the pace. Just a bit.

This current 25 man team is not going to seriously contend, but the organization for the first time since the late 80's has depth at nearly every position throughout the organization.

They are definitely missing offensive stars, but are poised to pick one up next off-season. Jocketty has executed his plan to near perfection so far, his only hiccups being signing some bad players to small short term contracts, but none of them have affected the overall plan.

There is no reason to think that Jocketty will not follow through on this plan, or stay with it. And more importantly, the pieces are all in place for him to do it. The Reds have a surplus of young talent that he can parlay into a the big star(s) that this team is missing. He did this many times in St. Louis, and I fully expect him to do it again here in Cincinnati.

Thank you.

OnBaseMachine
04-17-2010, 11:23 PM
Walt Jocketty has had nearly as much time as Wayne Krivsky and I've yet to see any improvements. Unless the Reds make some improvements this season, I'd like to see Jocketty let go at the end of the season and replaced with a young up and coming GM, someone like a David Forst from Oakland.

Spring~Fields
04-18-2010, 12:12 AM
Walt Jocketty has had nearly as much time as Wayne Krivsky and I've yet to see any improvements. Unless the Reds make some improvements this season, I'd like to see Jocketty let go at the end of the season and replaced with a young up and coming GM, someone like a David Forst from Oakland.

Let's be fair, Walt Jocketty should get to fire the manager first and bring in his own man. Someone that the runs scored don't regress each year that he manages the Reds.

Ghosts of 1990
04-18-2010, 02:07 AM
Let's be fair, Walt Jocketty should get to fire the manager first and bring in his own man. Someone that the runs scored don't regress each year that he manages the Reds.

+1 in agreeance.

I like Dusty as a man. I think he has a passion for his players. But if we continue to under-perform under him, he should be gone at years end. He's had his chances.

edabbs44
04-18-2010, 08:10 AM
Walt Jocketty has had nearly as much time as Wayne Krivsky and I've yet to see any improvements. Unless the Reds make some improvements this season, I'd like to see Jocketty let go at the end of the season and replaced with a young up and coming GM, someone like a David Forst from Oakland.

Jocketty also hasn't had the benefit of a (basically) open checkbook. He hasn't nearly dedicated the amt of money to the now, where Wayne did. As long as Walt's plan looks like it is working, then he should remain here.

nate
04-18-2010, 09:24 AM
+1 in agreeance.

I like Dusty as a man. I think he has a passion for his players. But if we continue to under-perform under him, he should be gone at years end. He's had his chances.

Dusty hasn't been the problem between winning and losing seasons.

No manager, including those who have left the mortal coil, could've made the Reds of the past few years a winner.

Spring~Fields
04-18-2010, 10:02 AM
Dusty hasn't been the problem between winning and losing seasons.

No manager, including those who have left the mortal coil, could've made the Reds of the past few years a winner.

You run the numbers, you even collect projections and predictions.

Could another manager have accomplished scoring more runs with the teams that were and are on the seasons?

Or do we just look to the GM who it is implied that he did not provide the talent, the skill, the production to the manager in such a manner that even you or I might score more runs with the team and win one, just one more game than we lose, which many would see as an improvement?

Or do we look to the ownership that did not provide the financial resources to the GM, the resources that a St. Louis, or Chicago ownership did to their GM to work with over years and years of building and still sometimes failing in the eyes of some?

nate
04-18-2010, 10:51 AM
You run the numbers, you even collect projections and predictions.

Could another manager have accomplished scoring more runs with the teams that were and are on the seasons?

Perhaps, but I don't think even the most influential manager, at the farthest extreme, affects the win/loss record by more than 8-10 games in a season.


Or do we just look to the GM who it is implied that he did not provide the talent, the skill, the production to the manager in such a manner that even you or I might score more runs with the team and win one, just one more game than we lose, which many would see as an improvement?

Or do we look to the ownership that did not provide the financial resources to the GM, the resources that a St. Louis, or Chicago ownership did to their GM to work with over years and years of building and still sometimes failing in the eyes of some?

The quality of the pieces has more to do with winning percentage than how they're arranged.

Spring~Fields
04-18-2010, 11:58 AM
Notes and questions to myself. :bang: Wake up ol mind of mine. :deadhorse

Have they regressed or have they taken the offense back to the time of Bob Boone, Dave Miley, Jerry Narron, Jim Bowden and Carl Lindner, or worse?



Bob Boone/Bowden/Lindner
2002 RS 709/162 RPG 4.3765

Bob Boone/Ray Knight/Dave Miley/Bowden/Lindner
2003 RS 694/162 RPG 4.2839

Dave Miley/O'Brien/Lindner
2004 RS 750/162 RPG 4.6296

Dave Miley/Jerry Narron/O'Brien/Lindner
2005 RS 703/162 RPG 4.3395

Jerry Narron/Krivsky/Castellini
2006 RS 749/162 RPG 4.6234

Jerry Narron/Pete Mackanin/Krivsky/Castellini
2007 RS 783/162 RPG 4.8333

Dusty Baker/Wayne Krivsky until 4/23/2008/Walt Jocketty/Castellini
2008 RS 704/162 RPG 4.3456

Dusty Baker/Walt Jocketty/Castellini
2009 RS 673/162 RPG 4.1543

Dusty Baker/Walt Jocketty/Castellini
2010 RS 50/12 *162 = 675 675/162 RPG 4.1666


Is that the progress, improvement and good job that people speak of or write of in the same breath attributing it to Castellini, Jocketty and Baker?

Forget my opinion, what do the production, performance numbers say, and the results, the outcomes of those numbers say in runs scored or maybe even the win/loss column?

No manager could have achieved a higher RPG with the teams by .25 or .33 or .50, and total runs scored on the season, with the player resources that this general manager or ownership gave them to work with?



2010 RS 50/12 *162 = 675 675/162 RPG 4.1666
4.1666 + .25 4.4166 * 162 RS 715
4.1666 + .33 4.4966 * 162 RS 728
4.1666 + .50 4.6666 * 162 RS 756

2009 RS 673/162 RPG 4.1543
4.1543 + .25 4.4043 * 162 RS 713
4.1543 + .33 4.4843 * 162 RS 726
4.1543 + .50 4.6543 * 162 RS 754

2008 RS 704/162 RPG 4.3456
4.3456 + .25 4.5956 * 162 RS 744
4.3456 + .33 4.6756 * 162 RS 757
4.3456 + .50 4.8456 * 162 RS 785


What if the manager and his staff had done a better job evaluating, assessing the players over the winters and spring trainings? What if the general manager and ownership had given the manager and coaches better producer’s? Even players that you or I could win one more game than we lose, is that what it takes? To score an additional small percentage of runs

And then

How many runs scored increase would have potentially occurred by putting the highest player OBP and SLG of the regular players in a reasonable order to receive the most PA/AB alone have increased the RPG and runs scored on the season? What does the calculators and spread sheets say? Do they say that even Bob Boone, Jerry Narron, Bowden, O’Brien and Lindner could have accomplished this, and in fact did?

Respectfully, are those that work so hard and obsessively with the stats and sabermetrics on this board so far out that they can't even interpret the on base percentages, slugging percentages and OPS + -, whatever to see, and why do they complain about who is batting, or batting here or there in the order? Even though studies show that lineups don't matter? What's the contradiction about? Why put the higher on base percentage players in front of the slugging players and give each of them the higher PA/AB?

Could it be that it is because, that on the season a team will in probability score more runs, increasing their RPG, RS, and decreasing their runs scored and runs allowed differential, and maybe, just maybe effect the wins and losses?

Oh the youth, the young, the prospects. Then what are those declining aging experienced vets doing here clogging up the roster, and taking their playing time at the major league level? Hindering from gaining their major league experience that is so required for them to progress to the next level. When all we read is it takes more time for player x, y or z to......? Oh they are here to provide experience, leadership and guidance to the younger players, then what is the manager and his coaches here for? Could Bob Boone and Jerry Narron have done as well?

One way or another, someone hasn’t given the fans what they sold the fans and that the fans and sponsors paid for. The fans and sponsors should be paying Bob Boone, Jerry Narron, Jim Bowden prices of the 2000 decade because that has the appearance of what they have received.

Do we conclude then that the GM does not deserve credit after all, and because he has not given this manager the player resources to even match Bob Boone and Jerry Narron on the offense?

Beats me, my brain batteries just ran out, and they were dead to begin with :sleep:

What does the numbers tell other's?


Perhaps, but I don't think even the most influential manager, at the farthest extreme, affects the win/loss record by more than 8-10 games in a season.

8-10 more wins would be measurable improvement. I would be happier with 8-10 more.

Spring~Fields
04-18-2010, 12:55 PM
The Reds were waiting until Scott Rolen hit in the cage to test his back before deciding on the lineup.

“It’s better,” Rolen said. “I can walk around like a normal human being. But I’ve got to see if I can play Major League Baseball.”

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/


Was this not a concern before the season started, or before Rolen was acquired with a preexisting condition?

I guess we can rationalize and generalize that away too. Or at least toss rocks at the messenger.

TheNext44
04-18-2010, 03:01 PM
Notes and questions to myself. :bang: Wake up ol mind of mine. :deadhorse

Have they regressed or have they taken the offense back to the time of Bob Boone, Dave Miley, Jerry Narron, Jim Bowden and Carl Lindner, or worse?



Bob Boone/Bowden/Lindner
2002 RS 709/162 RPG 4.3765

Bob Boone/Ray Knight/Dave Miley/Bowden/Lindner
2003 RS 694/162 RPG 4.2839

Dave Miley/O'Brien/Lindner
2004 RS 750/162 RPG 4.6296

Dave Miley/Jerry Narron/O'Brien/Lindner
2005 RS 703/162 RPG 4.3395

Jerry Narron/Krivsky/Castellini
2006 RS 749/162 RPG 4.6234

Jerry Narron/Pete Mackanin/Krivsky/Castellini
2007 RS 783/162 RPG 4.8333

Dusty Baker/Wayne Krivsky until 4/23/2008/Walt Jocketty/Castellini
2008 RS 704/162 RPG 4.3456

Dusty Baker/Walt Jocketty/Castellini
2009 RS 673/162 RPG 4.1543

Dusty Baker/Walt Jocketty/Castellini
2010 RS 50/12 *162 = 675 675/162 RPG 4.1666


Is that the progress, improvement and good job that people speak of or write of in the same breath attributing it to Castellini, Jocketty and Baker?

Forget my opinion, what do the production, performance numbers say, and the results, the outcomes of those numbers say in runs scored or maybe even the win/loss column?

No manager could have achieved a higher RPG with the teams by .25 or .33 or .50, and total runs scored on the season, with the player resources that this general manager or ownership gave them to work with?



2010 RS 50/12 *162 = 675 675/162 RPG 4.1666
4.1666 + .25 4.4166 * 162 RS 715
4.1666 + .33 4.4966 * 162 RS 728
4.1666 + .50 4.6666 * 162 RS 756

2009 RS 673/162 RPG 4.1543
4.1543 + .25 4.4043 * 162 RS 713
4.1543 + .33 4.4843 * 162 RS 726
4.1543 + .50 4.6543 * 162 RS 754

2008 RS 704/162 RPG 4.3456
4.3456 + .25 4.5956 * 162 RS 744
4.3456 + .33 4.6756 * 162 RS 757
4.3456 + .50 4.8456 * 162 RS 785


What if the manager and his staff had done a better job evaluating, assessing the players over the winters and spring trainings? What if the general manager and ownership had given the manager and coaches better producer’s? Even players that you or I could win one more game than we lose, is that what it takes? To score an additional small percentage of runs

And then

How many runs scored increase would have potentially occurred by putting the highest player OBP and SLG of the regular players in a reasonable order to receive the most PA/AB alone have increased the RPG and runs scored on the season? What does the calculators and spread sheets say? Do they say that even Bob Boone, Jerry Narron, Bowden, O’Brien and Lindner could have accomplished this, and in fact did?

Respectfully, are those that work so hard and obsessively with the stats and sabermetrics on this board so far out that they can't even interpret the on base percentages, slugging percentages and OPS + -, whatever to see, and why do they complain about who is batting, or batting here or there in the order? Even though studies show that lineups don't matter? What's the contradiction about? Why put the higher on base percentage players in front of the slugging players and give each of them the higher PA/AB?

Could it be that it is because, that on the season a team will in probability score more runs, increasing their RPG, RS, and decreasing their runs scored and runs allowed differential, and maybe, just maybe effect the wins and losses?

Oh the youth, the young, the prospects. Then what are those declining aging experienced vets doing here clogging up the roster, and taking their playing time at the major league level? Hindering from gaining their major league experience that is so required for them to progress to the next level. When all we read is it takes more time for player x, y or z to......? Oh they are here to provide experience, leadership and guidance to the younger players, then what is the manager and his coaches here for? Could Bob Boone and Jerry Narron have done as well?

One way or another, someone hasn’t given the fans what they sold the fans and that the fans and sponsors paid for. The fans and sponsors should be paying Bob Boone, Jerry Narron, Jim Bowden prices of the 2000 decade because that has the appearance of what they have received.

Do we conclude then that the GM does not deserve credit after all, and because he has not given this manager the player resources to even match Bob Boone and Jerry Narron on the offense?

Beats me, my brain batteries just ran out, and they were dead to begin with :sleep:

What does the numbers tell other's?



8-10 more wins would be measurable improvement. I would be happier with 8-10 more.

First, over each of the last three years, the NL average Runs Scored has decreased, and in 2009 was 7% less than the average in 2006. During that same time, the Reds offense has decreased by 11%. So the Reds really have decreased offensive production by around 4% during those years.

Second, Runs Scored only tells us half of what we need to know about the team's ability to win. Runs Prevented tells us the other half. During the Jocketty/Baker era, the Reds have improved their Runs Prevented average by 16%, which is 5% better than the league.

That improvement in Run Prevention of 16% and regression of the offense of 11% approximately adds up to the 6 more wins that the Reds have enjoyed during that time. If the Reds were to have experienced the league average regression in offense and only regressed by 7%, then that would have lead to around 2 more wins.

Now, one issue is could the Reds have improved their offense without hurting their run prevention? Probably. It would have had to be have been through Free Agency. Remember they had to give up pitching to improve it with Rolen. If they had made wiser use of their Free Agency spending, which would have been pretty easy, I think they could have improved the team by around 2 wins.

So without doing any heavy lifting, I would say that the team should be around 2 wins better than they are right now, if management had not made any mistakes.

TheNext44
04-18-2010, 03:04 PM
Was this not a concern before the season started, or before Rolen was acquired with a preexisting condition?

I guess we can rationalize and generalize that away too. Or at least toss rocks at the messenger.

It was and has been figured into the game plan. The Reds expect Rolen to play around 100-120 games this season. And all of the projections of the team's production has included Rolen appearing in only 100-120 games.

So it is a concern, but not one that has been ignored.

OnBaseMachine
04-18-2010, 03:53 PM
He really screwed up by going into the season with Jonny Gomes as the main left fielder. I can't believe some people wanted him to be the everyday left fielder. So far he's got a sub .300 OBP and his defense is just atrocious, as evidenced by "performance" out there today. That was just brutal. Gomes is what he is - a DH and pinch hitter vs LHP.

flyer85
04-18-2010, 03:55 PM
I thought he screwed up when he traded for Rolen. SHould have used those resources to attempt to acquire a young SS or C.

Spring~Fields
04-18-2010, 04:10 PM
So without doing any heavy lifting, I would say that the team should be around 2 wins better than they are right now, if management had not made any mistakes.

Short on talent and adequate player production then? Still are?

Do we conclude then that the GM has not done a good enough job, and because he has not given this manager the player resources to even match Bob Boone and Jerry Narron on the offense?

Or is it on ownership that has been here even longer than the general manager?

TheNext44
04-18-2010, 04:11 PM
He really screwed up by going into the season with Jonny Gomes as the main left fielder. I can't believe some people wanted him to be the everyday left fielder. So far he's got a sub .300 OBP and his defense is just atrocious, as evidenced by "performance" out there today. That was just brutal. Gomes is what he is - a DH and pinch hitter vs LHP.

A lot of people on this board agreed with you, before he butchered that play today. It was why I was against his resigning and why I wanted Balentien to make the club as the LF.

TheNext44
04-18-2010, 04:14 PM
Short on talent and adequate player production then? Still are?

Do we conclude then that the GM has not done a good enough job, and because he has not given this manager the player resources to even match Bob Boone and Jerry Narron on the offense?

Or is it on ownership that has been here even longer than the general manager?

Right now they are short on talent on their major league roster. But what Jocketty has spent most of his energy on is rebuilding the farm system. He has done that while still improving the major league team, even if incrementally.

The Reds have the major league talent to finish around .500 this year, and have the depth to make a serious run in 2011.

Spring~Fields
04-18-2010, 04:21 PM
Right now they are short on talent on their major league roster. But what Jocketty has spent most of his energy on is rebuilding the farm system. He has done that while still improving the major league team, even if incrementally.

The Reds have the major league talent to finish around .500 this year, and have the depth to make a serious run in 2011.

:) Well you have managed to drift away from the one and only point I was making, and that was about offense, and offense only.

I look at RPG through out the years, and set my opins aside, the numbers show a lower RPG, which leads to a lower RS. Is all I was saying.

I have to guess that the manager must not have the players that made him famous as a winning manager. Must be his boss then. ;)

What did a poor cash strapped, small market team like the Reds spend that kind of money on a manager for, when Miley, Boone, or Narron could have done that for less? Walt Jocketty didn't do that.

TheNext44
04-18-2010, 04:27 PM
:) Well you have managed to drift away from the one and only point I was making, and that was about offense, and offense only.

I look at RPG through out the years, and set my opins aside, the numbers show a lower RPG, which leads to a lower RS. Is all I was saying.

I have to guess that the manager must not have the players that made him famous as a winning manager. Must be his boss then. ;)

It's fine to make a point about offense and only offense, but it really doesn't say a lot about the teams' ability to win, all by itself.

For example, last year the Giants scored less often that the Reds and yet won 12 more games and were in contention most of the year.

If you are going to judge management, it's not fair to judge them just on the team's offense. It's like being critical of Skyline because it's fattening. It's also very delicious, and should get credit for that as well. :D

Spring~Fields
04-18-2010, 04:28 PM
He really screwed up by going into the season with Jonny Gomes as the main left fielder. I can't believe some people wanted him to be the everyday left fielder. So far he's got a sub .300 OBP and his defense is just atrocious, as evidenced by "performance" out there today. That was just brutal. Gomes is what he is - a DH and pinch hitter vs LHP.

Did the manager have a better fielding and OBP option?

Spring~Fields
04-18-2010, 04:31 PM
It's fine to make a point about offense and only offense, but it really doesn't say a lot about the teams' ability to win, all by itself.

Yes, it is problematic isn't it. :D



If you are going to judge management, it's not fair to judge them just on the team's offense. It's like being critical of Skyline because it's fattening. It's also very delicious, and should get credit for that as well. :D

How many years do they need? Before they discover that their choices in player resources and manager choices are slimming, and caloric runs scoring devoid? :p:

nate
04-18-2010, 04:31 PM
Did the manager have a better fielding and OBP option?

He did and still does.

Falls City Beer
04-18-2010, 04:41 PM
It's astonishing how often this team underperforms even my sorry expectations. This organization honestly might as well not exist.

TheNext44
04-18-2010, 04:44 PM
It's astonishing how often this team underperforms even my sorry expectations. This organization honestly might as well not exist.

Ding Ding Ding, and we have a winner...

The most outrageous, mind boggling over-exaggeration of the young season! :D:thumbup:

Falls City Beer
04-18-2010, 04:45 PM
Ding Ding Ding, and we have a winner...

The most outrageous, mind boggling over-exaggeration of the young season! :D:thumbup:

I'm not sure it's so much an exaggeration as it is a recommendation.

TheNext44
04-18-2010, 04:46 PM
I'm not sure it's so much an exaggeration as it is a recommendation.

Either way, it's super cool and totally awesome! I'm serious, totally awesome! It makes me smile. :)

HokieRed
04-18-2010, 04:58 PM
I think it's a lot less important to affix blame--along the lines of the title of this thread--and to begin acknowledging just how bad things are. The offense is terrible, the rotation mediocre at best, the bullpen overrated, and the defense not as good as advertised. A lot of work needs to be done.

kbrake
04-18-2010, 05:18 PM
Am I the only who still thinks it will be worth watch Reds baseball this season? I know this week sucked hard but is everyone as done as it seems around here? Its APRIL 18th. Things MIGHT get better.

OnBaseMachine
04-18-2010, 05:23 PM
Am I the only who still thinks it will be worth watch Reds baseball this season? I know this week sucked hard but is everyone as done as it seems around here? Its APRIL 18th. Things MIGHT get better.

I'll still watch all the games I can, even though I think this team is pretty bad. I also still plan on attending about 10 games as I normally do. No matter how bad they are, I still love them. It's just so frustrating to see them struggling this bad early on. Usually the Reds get off to a fast start and fade in June or July. This year's team isn't even giving the fans the pleasure of false hope.

Spring~Fields
04-18-2010, 05:26 PM
Am I the only who still thinks it will be worth watch Reds baseball this season? I know this week sucked hard but is everyone as done as it seems around here? Its APRIL 18th. Things MIGHT get better.

Yes the Reds are worth watching. The Reds are family and have been a part of our families all our lives.

It’s just that we are having an intervention meeting. :nono:

Some of the family wants to be enablers, other's of us don't. ;)

We know they can do better. :thumbup:

Don’t let any outsiders dare come in here and make any unsightly comments about them or they will find out. :duel:

HokieRed
04-18-2010, 05:30 PM
Absolutely I'll continue following them, but it's pretty hard not to be disappointed at this point in this particular incarnation of the club. I'd like to see the FO move immediately on some changes, certainly within the next ten games if there's not improvement.

nate
04-18-2010, 05:35 PM
Am I the only who still thinks it will be worth watch Reds baseball this season?

No.


I know this week sucked hard but is everyone as done as it seems around here? Its APRIL 18th. Things MIGHT get better.

The season isn't even 1/10th over yet. If this was the NFL, the first GAME wouldn't even be over.

Benihana
04-18-2010, 05:52 PM
No.



The season isn't even 1/10th over yet. If this was the NFL, the first GAME wouldn't even be over.

I'm with you.

The sky is still not falling. Maybe I'm the only one running into the building when everyone is running out, but that is fine by me.

I think things will get better. They almost have to.

Reds/Flyers Fan
04-18-2010, 06:09 PM
It's astonishing how often this team underperforms even my sorry expectations. This organization honestly might as well not exist.

If it ceased operation, would anyone notice? Well, I guess the Pirates would ... they don't have anyone else to bully around

kbrake
04-18-2010, 06:11 PM
They almost have to.


EXACTLY where I'm at right now. I'm glad some of you out there are still with them it just seems like 2 weeks in plenty have jumped completely off the wagon. Its a long season. I waited way too long for baseball to get here to be done with it before May.

TheNext44
04-18-2010, 06:26 PM
If it ceased operation, would anyone notice? Well, I guess the Pirates would ... they don't have anyone else to bully around

Judging from the hits per day average of this site alone, I would have say a resounding yes.

westofyou
04-18-2010, 06:48 PM
If it ceased operation, would anyone notice? Well, I guess the Pirates would ... they don't have anyone else to bully around

Reds were 13-5 vs Pittsburgh last year.

REDblooded
04-18-2010, 07:11 PM
Here's an interesting question. Would you trade Alonso, Stubbs and Bailey for Oswalt and Berkman? Oswalt and Lee?



no, no, no, no, no.... why on earth would you want to move 3 young, cheap players with upside for 3 costly players in decline?

Benihana
04-18-2010, 07:22 PM
no, no, no, no, no.... why on earth would you want to move 3 young, cheap players with upside for 3 costly players in decline?

I don't know, if you were interested in say...winning?


Otherwise, you can just wait til next year. Lather, rinse, repeat.

REDblooded
04-18-2010, 07:40 PM
I don't know, if you were interested in say...winning?


Otherwise, you can just wait til next year. Lather, rinse, repeat.

Players decline when they age... It's just what happens... It's kind of like how Rolen is pretty good when he plays, but he doesn't get to play every day. His body won't give him what it used to, and no, 2010 Rolen when healthy isn't as good as 2004 Rolen.

Berkman is 34... His body is breaking down. As evidenced by his 0 ab's so far this season.
Lee is 34 in June...
And Oswalt will bee 33 in August, and has a TON of innings over the past 6 seasons on a small frame'd guy...

I'm just not a fan of mortgaging the future with the strong possibility that you're paying a TON of money for 3 guys that are all on the edge of decline...

Benihana
04-18-2010, 08:11 PM
Players decline when they age... It's just what happens... It's kind of like how Rolen is pretty good when he plays, but he doesn't get to play every day. His body won't give him what it used to, and no, 2010 Rolen when healthy isn't as good as 2004 Rolen.

Berkman is 34... His body is breaking down. As evidenced by his 0 ab's so far this season.
Lee is 34 in June...
And Oswalt will bee 33 in August, and has a TON of innings over the past 6 seasons on a small frame'd guy...

I'm just not a fan of mortgaging the future with the strong possibility that you're paying a TON of money for 3 guys that are all on the edge of decline...


I'm well aware of the concept of aging.

I'm also pretty well versed in saying wait til next year.

Stubbs (Dickerson) and Alonso (Votto) are both blocked by better young players at the major league level. Bailey has proven year in and year out that he cannot be counted on when it counts. While he may be able to finally achieve his potential, he could probably be served by a change of scenery- especially if he is sent back to his home state.

Oswalt has a 3.80 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP over the last two seasons. That would make him the #1 starter on the Reds.

Lee has an .880 OPS over the last two years. That would make him the best hitter on the Reds.

So would I trade three guys who are replaceable and have yet to achieve any kind of major league success for two players that would not only plug the two biggest holes, but would instantly become the two best players on the team?

Only if I was interested in winning.

REDblooded
04-18-2010, 08:38 PM
You'd be selling off 3 of the teams better young players in an all or nothing move for this season... I'm not the type of guy that likes to bet his house on a coin flip...

alloverjr
04-18-2010, 08:45 PM
You'd be selling off 3 of the teams better young players in an all or nothing move for this season... I'm not the type of guy that likes to bet his house on a coin flip...

And holding on to potential is much better than proven production. Frankly, people seem to way overvalue their team's young players. Probably more so here because the team has stunk for so long that we hold out for any glimmer of hope.

REDblooded
04-18-2010, 09:02 PM
And holding on to potential is much better than proven production. Frankly, people seem to way overvalue their team's young players. Probably more so here because the team has stunk for so long that we hold out for any glimmer of hope.

I'm not against trading young talent... But I'd much rather swap for cheaper talent that fits with the mold of the team... And at best, a deal like this would be an all or nothing push for this season at the cost of the next 3-4... If it doesn't pan out, you lost a lot of young, cheap talent, got some plump old contracts in return, and now have no future to look forward to...

Benihana
04-18-2010, 09:11 PM
I'm not against trading young talent... But I'd much rather swap for cheaper talent that fits with the mold of the team... And at best, a deal like this would be an all or nothing push for this season at the cost of the next 3-4... If it doesn't pan out, you lost a lot of young, cheap talent, got some plump old contracts in return, and now have no future to look forward to...

No future?

CF Dickerson/Heisey
RF Bruce/Fraizer
LF Lee
1B Votto
3B Rolen
2B Phillips
SS Cabrera/Cozart
C Hernanigan

SP Oswalt
SP Cueto
SP Leake
SP Volquez
SP Chapman/Wood

Not sure that's really "mortgaging the future" or having "nothing to look forward to" for the next 3-4 years...


I don't know who you think is going to give away "cheap young talent" that is going to also be able to perform at the major league level, unless you start talking about trading names like Chapman, Leake, Cueto or Bruce. Think of it in reverse, what would you ask for if another team wanted Votto?

TheNext44
04-18-2010, 09:12 PM
I don't know, if you were interested in say...winning?


Otherwise, you can just wait til next year. Lather, rinse, repeat.

Actually, the going for it this year at the expense of the future is the Lather, Rinse, Repeat that Reds fans have endured for the last 10 years.

Benihana
04-18-2010, 09:16 PM
Actually, the going for it this year at the expense of the future is the Lather, Rinse, Repeat that Reds fans have endured for the last 10 years.

Huh?

edabbs44
04-18-2010, 09:16 PM
Did the manager have a better fielding and OBP option?

Dickerson botched a foul pop up last night and has walked once (versus 9 Ks) in 27 PAs this season. Sure he is a better fielder than Gomes but give me his bat 100 times out of 100 over Dickerson.

TheNext44
04-18-2010, 09:21 PM
Here's an interesting question. Would you trade Alonso, Stubbs and Bailey for Oswalt and Berkman? Oswalt and Lee?



Two power hitters about to hit 35 who have had serious injuries the last two years, and a pitcher who'll be 33 before the season ends, all of whom make a combined $48M just for this year.

I have no problem trading the guys you mentioned, in fact I agree that the Reds need to package together some young players to get some proven stars. It's just that these guys aren't them.

edabbs44
04-18-2010, 09:22 PM
EXACTLY where I'm at right now. I'm glad some of you out there are still with them it just seems like 2 weeks in plenty have jumped completely off the wagon. Its a long season. I waited way too long for baseball to get here to be done with it before May.

I'm with you. Plus, people need to get their expectations in check. The disappointment in this team's performance should in no way be eclipsed by the disappointment in some of the performances we have seen by guys like Bruce and Bailey so far.

REDblooded
04-18-2010, 09:22 PM
Oswalt - 2011 16 million and 16 million in 2012 with a 2 million buyout
Berkman - 2011 15 million club option with 2 million buyout
Lee - 2011 18.5 million, 2012 18.5 million...

Who do you propose that the Reds get rid of to make the money work?

REDblooded
04-18-2010, 09:24 PM
Also, 2 of the 3 have full no-trade clauses...

edabbs44
04-18-2010, 09:24 PM
He really screwed up by going into the season with Jonny Gomes as the main left fielder. I can't believe some people wanted him to be the everyday left fielder. So far he's got a sub .300 OBP and his defense is just atrocious, as evidenced by "performance" out there today. That was just brutal. Gomes is what he is - a DH and pinch hitter vs LHP.

Do you feel the same way about Bruce's performance so far? Going into today Gomes' SLG was over 100 pts higher than Bruce's OPS.

Benihana
04-18-2010, 09:25 PM
Two power hitters about to hit 35 who have had serious injuries the last two years, and a pitcher who'll be 33 before the season ends, all of whom make a combined $48M just for this year.

I have no problem trading the guys you mentioned, in fact I agree that the Reds need to package together some young players to get some proven stars. It's just that these guys aren't them.

That's fine, I'm not convinced they are the guys we need either, and I'm even less convinced that the two sides could make the money work.

But we do need something, and if we have to trade a few of the youngsters in the process, so be it. In my mind, it's long overdue. That's what you pay your scouts for- to figure out who to trade while their value is still high. We've held onto the Kearns and the Encarnacions for too long in the past. Remember the Kurt Stillwell trade? If I recall, it netted us a Cy Young runner up and our Game 3 starter in the World Series only two years later. That seemed to work out pretty well.

So if not the geysers from Houston, who should we target? And please be realistic.

TheNext44
04-18-2010, 09:26 PM
Huh?

I'm just the saying that the problem the Reds have had this decade is not that they have been "waiting for next year." The problem is that they try to go for it each year with marginal talent at the expense of the future.

That's why it's been Lather, Rinse, Repeat. They make the same mistake every year of thinking that they are good enough to compete right now, instead of investing in the future.

edabbs44
04-18-2010, 09:27 PM
I'm just the saying that the problem the Reds have had this decade is not that they have been "waiting for next year." The problem is that they try to go for it each year with marginal talent at the expense of the future.

That's why it's been Lather, Rinse, Repeat. They make the same mistake every year of thinking that they are good enough to compete right now, instead of investing in the future.

They haven't done that since Walt took over. They have dedicated limited resources to the now since WK left.

Benihana
04-18-2010, 09:27 PM
Oswalt - 2011 16 million and 16 million in 2012 with a 2 million buyout
Berkman - 2011 15 million club option with 2 million buyout
Lee - 2011 18.5 million, 2012 18.5 million...

Who do you propose that the Reds get rid of to make the money work?

Harang and Arroyo.

And I never said to take all three, and I'm still not convinced the two sides could make the money work. The general idea is what's important.

OnBaseMachine
04-18-2010, 09:29 PM
Do you feel the same way about Bruce's performance so far? Going into today Gomes' SLG was over 100 pts higher than Bruce's OPS.

Jay Bruce is 23 and has upside, and he's a Gold Glove caliber defender. So at least he has some value when he's not hitting. Jonny Gomes is a fine bat off the bench and occasional starter vs a tough lefty, but that's all he is. His awful defense far outweights what value he provides with the bat. It was an awful, awful idea to enter the season with him as the main left fielder.

edabbs44
04-18-2010, 09:37 PM
Jay Bruce is 23 and has upside, and he's a Gold Glove caliber defender. So at least he has some value when he's not hitting. Jonny Gomes is a fine bat off the bench and occasional starter vs a tough lefty, but that's all he is. His awful defense far outweights what value he provides with the bat. It was an awful, awful idea to enter the season with him as the main left fielder.

We're actually talking about this year. Bruce, up until today, has done as bad as he could possibly have done. Like bad enough to make you think about if Taveras and Patterson were biologically able to procreate and somehow the child didn't have their speed. I know he has upside, but it doesn't matter when we are talking about this year. Has Bruce's glove been worth roughly .500 points of OPS over Gomes' glove this season? Doubtful.

Gomes is 3rd on the team in OPS. He hasn't been awful up to this point with his defense. In fact, he has made a couple of nice plays that I have seen. Maybe he should have had today's ball, maybe he shouldn't have. It was a tough play and it would have still been an over the shoulder catch in the gap to the warning track. For the $1MM or whatever he costs, I'm glad he's here.

REDblooded
04-18-2010, 09:43 PM
Targets that would be slightly more realistic and make way more sense...

Buster Posey -- Would take some young talent to land him, but the Giants seem to be in no hurry to get him into their line-up and could use something along the lines of the Alonso/Bailey package that you suggested...(would take more than this, and am not suggesting the Giants undervalue him in any way shape or form...)

Miguel Cabrera -- The one large contract I would target... Consistent hitter that would CRUSH in GABP... Would probably put up Pujols-esque numbers in our park. Would gladly move something along the lines of Votto/Harang to land him. Maybe a Sizemore/Cabrera for Phillips/Harang/Votto deal...

Chris Coghlan is another guy I would target... Gets on base, and can play 2nd... Allows you to move Phillips.

OnBaseMachine
04-18-2010, 09:44 PM
He hasn't been awful up to this point with his defense. In fact, he has made a couple of nice plays that I have seen. Maybe he should have had today's ball, maybe he shouldn't have. It was a tough play and it would have still been an over the shoulder catch in the gap to the warning track. For the $1MM or whatever he costs, I'm glad he's here.

I guess we're watching two different Jonny Gomes's. That play today was basically a routine play for most left fielders.

Ron Madden
04-18-2010, 09:46 PM
Dickerson botched a foul pop up last night and has walked once (versus 9 Ks) in 27 PAs this season. Sure he is a better fielder than Gomes but give me his bat 100 times out of 100 over Dickerson.

I didn't see it but Marty said that foul ball hit the wall on the way down.

You're just looking for stuff to blame on Dickerson IMO.

edabbs44
04-18-2010, 09:51 PM
I guess we're watching two different Jonny Gomes's. That play today was basically a routine play for most left fielders.

Not a routine play. Lefty hitting it opposite field in the gap to the warning track isn't an easy play.

Like I said, maybe he should have had it. But let's not say it was a routine play. We saw Stubbs have a ball clang off his glove on the run earlier this year.

OnBaseMachine
04-18-2010, 09:53 PM
It was a play that should have been made.

edabbs44
04-18-2010, 09:56 PM
I didn't see it but Marty said that foul ball hit the wall on the way down.

You're just looking for stuff to blame on Dickerson IMO.

He didn't even jump for it. The ball was misplayed. Try and find it on line.

But I'm not looking for anything to blame on him. I actually think the Gomes play has resulted in a bit of an overreaction and has resulted in some undue blame. When people are jumping to the "better OBP and defensive option" statements right now it is just an overreaction. Especially when that other option has a 9-1 K to BB ratio in only 27 PAs.

And no one was saying this when Gomes hit that game winning HR last week.

Ron Madden
04-18-2010, 10:00 PM
He didn't even jump for it. The ball was misplayed. Try and find it on line.

But I'm not looking for anything to blame on him. I actually think the Gomes play has resulted in a bit of an overreaction and has resulted in some undue blame. When people are jumping to the "better OBP and defensive option" statements right now it is just an overreaction. Especially when that other option has a 9-1 K to BB ratio in only 27 PAs.

And no one was saying this when Gomes hit that game winning HR last week.

Like I said I missed seeing that play last night. I did see the play by Gomes today and that ball was misplayed.

edabbs44
04-18-2010, 10:01 PM
It was a play that should have been made.

Maybe, but a run still scores and the Reds probably still lose. And putting the big blame on Gomes for that inning is a little off. Someone else had a bad performance that inning also.

OnBaseMachine
04-18-2010, 10:04 PM
Like I said I missed seeing that play last night. I did see the play by Gomes today and that ball was misplayed.

Yep. Chris Welsh mentioned the bad route Gomes took, the writers mentioned it, and the fans saw it too. That misplay cost the Reds two runs. It's the second straight start by Arroyo where an outfielder misplayed a flyball and cost Arroyo two runs (Stubbs in Florida last Tuesday). It was out of character for Stubbs. Gomes? Not so much. I hold my breath every time a ball is hit to him.

Kc61
04-18-2010, 10:19 PM
The Reds defense has been very spotty. Some of these outfield plays, a couple at shortstop here and there, have hurt. The Bucs way outplayed the Reds defensively, wasn't even close.

The Dickerson play last night seemed makeable, and basically would have saved the game. Gomes today. Some at shortstop.

If the team isn't going to hit, then they probably should just stick the best defenders out there. And it seems like the team isn't going to hit.

edabbs44
04-18-2010, 10:26 PM
Yep. Chris Welsh mentioned the bad route Gomes took, the writers mentioned it, and the fans saw it too. That misplay cost the Reds two runs. It's the second straight start by Arroyo where an outfielder misplayed a flyball and cost Arroyo two runs (Stubbs in Florida last Tuesday). It was out of character for Stubbs. Gomes? Not so much. I hold my breath every time a ball is hit to him.

It's easy to point the finger at Gomes, but the reality is that he should be #2 on the execution line for today's bad inning.

OnBaseMachine
04-18-2010, 10:29 PM
It's easy to point the finger at Gomes, but the reality is that he should be #2 on the execution line for today's bad inning.

If you say so. If Gomes catches that ball Arroyo allows three runs, a solid start. I've said all I'm going to say on it. I'm not going to sit here and argue all night with you, again.

Note to self - don't ever question Walt Jocketty again. :rolleyes:

edabbs44
04-18-2010, 10:34 PM
If you say so. If Gomes catches that ball Arroyo allows three runs, a solid start.

Well the team probably still loses, which is the bottom line. But besides that fact, the guy at bat was the #8 hitting backup catcher and he took our top starter to the warning track opposite field. That after him hitting the #7 hitter. When you are the front of the rotation guy you need to destroy hitters like that, especially in that situation. I'd bet that Arroyo says the same thing if asked the question.

edabbs44
04-18-2010, 10:36 PM
Note to self - don't ever question Walt Jocketty again. :rolleyes:

No, everyone is entitled to their opinion. But when you have little to no money to work with I am unsure what would be expected from him.

Gomes was 2nd on the team last year in OPS and is 3rd this year, I believe. He also makes like $1MM.

OnBaseMachine
04-18-2010, 10:40 PM
Adam Wainwright has allowed two hits and 2 RBI to the Mets #8 hitter tonight. I guess he's a bum.

edabbs44
04-18-2010, 10:48 PM
Adam Wainwright has allowed two hits and 2 RBI to the Mets #8 hitter tonight. I guess he's a bum.

I guarantee you he is extremely unhappy with himself about that.

And that's not what I am saying.

TheNext44
04-19-2010, 01:32 AM
I think the grief that Gomes is getting is because he just looked so foolish on that play. It was like scene from the Bad News Bears. Well that and it cost the Reds 3 runs.

On another note, I'm not worried about the Reds at all. I'm blaming this losing streak on Iceland and that volcano. It's all their fault, just like everything else that went wrong in the world this week. :cool:

Spring~Fields
04-19-2010, 02:07 AM
Dickerson botched a foul pop up last night and has walked once (versus 9 Ks) in 27 PAs this season. Sure he is a better fielder than Gomes but give me his bat 100 times out of 100 over Dickerson.

With Dusty working Dickerson over, and playing the injury card on him, if I was Dickerson, I would not risk a hang nail, let alone an injury on some foul popup, it could get real foul for Dickerson, more than it already is.

You've seen Gomes, Stubbs, and Bruce. You even use Bruce in one of your examples, yet you don't think that Dickerson could have played some more in one of those outfield spots? I am guessing but I assume you are in love with the homerun potential and willing to forgo on base percentage.

Spring~Fields
04-19-2010, 02:15 AM
First, over each of the last three years, the NL average Runs Scored has decreased, and in 2009 was 7% less than the average in 2006. During that same time, the Reds offense has decreased by 11%. So the Reds really have decreased offensive production by around 4% during those years.

Second, Runs Scored only tells us half of what we need to know about the team's ability to win. Runs Prevented tells us the other half. During the Jocketty/Baker era, the Reds have improved their Runs Prevented average by 16%, which is 5% better than the league.

That improvement in Run Prevention of 16% and regression of the offense of 11% approximately adds up to the 6 more wins that the Reds have enjoyed during that time. If the Reds were to have experienced the league average regression in offense and only regressed by 7%, then that would have lead to around 2 more wins.

Now, one issue is could the Reds have improved their offense without hurting their run prevention? Probably. It would have had to be have been through Free Agency. Remember they had to give up pitching to improve it with Rolen. If they had made wiser use of their Free Agency spending, which would have been pretty easy, I think they could have improved the team by around 2 wins.

So without doing any heavy lifting, I would say that the team should be around 2 wins better than they are right now, if management had not made any mistakes.

What if we said that - 85 RA of that -77 RA improvement came against 4 teams?
Could -28, -32, -13, -12, +11, +12 and +13 etc be considered outliers?

What if we said that a + 70 runs of RS came against 3 of the weaker teams in baseball?
In addition to the reduced runs scored of -31 in 2009.
Could +14, +25, +31 or -31, -24, -22, -15, and -16 be outliers in the 09 RS?

Could it be that their offense was even worse than the 09 and 08 RS indicates? What about that supposed improvement in the defense based upon RA?

I am not so sure how much we should lean on those numbers that have large increases or decreases??


2009 78 - 84 RS 673 RA 723 Diff - 50 2008 74 - 88 RS 704 RA 800 Diff - 96
under 08 -31 -77 under 07 -79 -17

2007 72 - 90 RS 783 RA 853 Diff- 70 2006 80 - 82 RS 749 RA 801 Diff - 52
over 06 +34 +52
2009 Opponent 2008 Opponent 2009 2009 2007 Opponent 2008
RS RA RS RA RS RA RS RA RS RA
ARI 32 17 ARI 18 17 +14 -- ARI 26 18 -11 +1
HOU 73 56 HOU 48 84 +25 -28 HOU 68 80 -20 +4
PIT 94 64 PIT 63 68 +31 -4 PIT 98 79 -35 -11
ATL 34 32 ATL 25 36 +9 -- ATL 46 42 -21 -6
CLE 30 24 CLE 28 20 +2 +4 CLE 28 30 ---- -10
MIL 70 84 MIL 82 73 -12 +11 MIL 84 79 -2 -6
SFG 24 21 SFG 48 29 -24 -8 SFG 35 32 -13 -3
STL 69 77 STL 58 84 +11 -7 STL 70 71 -12 -13
FLA 25 13 FLA 56 45 -31 -32 FLA 38 48 -18 -3
WSN 26 24 WSN 27 29 -1 -5 WSN 30 51 -3 -22
CHC 52 63 CHC 74 76 -22 -13 CHC 66 89 +8 -13
NYM 26 30 NYM 41 42 -15 -12 NYM 31 35 +10 +7
PHI 26 54 PHI 27 31 -1 +13 PHI 26 39 +1 -8
LAD 20 41 LAD 25 41 -5 -- LAD 17 24 +8 +17
SDP 22 35 SDP 38 38 -16 -3 SDP 24 36 +14 +2
COL 17 33 COL 20 39 -3 -6 COL 35 34 -15 +5
KCR 6 18 NYY 11 6 -5 +12 LAA 15 18 -4 -12
CHW 13 17 BOS 7 16 +6 -1 OAK 9 13 -2 +3
TOR 14 20 TOR 8 26 -6 -6 SEA 19 13 -11 +13
TEX 18 22

May 144 124 May 132 139 +12 -15
Sept 138 85 Sept 118 117 +20 -32

April 78 92 April 122 135 -44 -43
June 97 118 June 101 136 -4 -18
July 89 157 July 119 128 -30 +29
August 112 127 August 110 141 +2 -14
October 15 20 March 2 4

Benihana
04-19-2010, 02:39 AM
Targets that would be slightly more realistic and make way more sense...

Buster Posey -- Would take some young talent to land him, but the Giants seem to be in no hurry to get him into their line-up and could use something along the lines of the Alonso/Bailey package that you suggested...(would take more than this, and am not suggesting the Giants undervalue him in any way shape or form...)

Zero chance the Giants trade him. Zero. Next.


Miguel Cabrera -- The one large contract I would target... Consistent hitter that would CRUSH in GABP... Would probably put up Pujols-esque numbers in our park. Would gladly move something along the lines of Votto/Harang to land him. Maybe a Sizemore/Cabrera for Phillips/Harang/Votto deal...

Huh? Last I checked, Cabrera and Sizemore are not on the same team. And unless you're planning on trading Votto, Cabrera doesn't have anywhere to play. If you are trading Votto, you aren't really solving any problems. And if the proposed deal is Phillips for Sizemore, why would the rebuilding, budget-constrained Indians trade their popular franchise player for a more expensive guy they DFA'd in part due to attitude problems just a couple years ago? Horrible idea.


Chris Coghlan is another guy I would target... Gets on base, and can play 2nd... Allows you to move Phillips.

Name me the last time a small market team has traded the reigning Rookie of the Year. I don't believe it has ever happened, nor will it this year.

So I ask you again to please be realistic when thinking of players that could actually be moved, and what pieces you would give up to get them.

REDblooded
04-19-2010, 03:35 AM
Huh? Last I checked, Cabrera and Sizemore are not on the same team. And unless you're planning on trading Votto, Cabrera doesn't have anywhere to play. If you are trading Votto, you aren't really solving any problems. And if the proposed deal is Phillips for Sizemore, why would the rebuilding, budget-constrained Indians trade their popular franchise player for a more expensive guy they DFA'd in part due to attitude problems just a couple years ago? Horrible idea.



So I ask you again to please be realistic when thinking of players that could actually be moved, and what pieces you would give up to get them.

Scott Sizemore...

And love the tone...

edabbs44
04-19-2010, 07:00 AM
With Dusty working Dickerson over, and playing the injury card on him, if I was Dickerson, I would not risk a hang nail, let alone an injury on some foul popup, it could get real foul for Dickerson, more than it already is.

You've seen Gomes, Stubbs, and Bruce. You even use Bruce in one of your examples, yet you don't think that Dickerson could have played some more in one of those outfield spots? I am guessing but I assume you are in love with the homerun potential and willing to forgo on base percentage.

The HR potential only applies to Gomes, for me. Right now I could see either Stubbs or Bruce getting demoted in the future if they don't pick it up and I would then be fine with Dickerson playing everyday. But the way the roster currently is, I'd rather see Dickerson in the 4th OF role.

westofyou
04-19-2010, 10:24 AM
Scott Sizemore...

And love the tone...

Warm and fuzzy eh?

Falls City Beer
04-19-2010, 11:38 AM
It's time to start cashing in these can't-miss prospects for actual-can't-miss MLB players.

It's no mistake that Scott Rolen is the team's best hitter. The Reds definitely have quite a bit of perceived talent in their minors (nationally they're getting a lot of attention, and the Chapman signing has only increased the Reds' profile): straw to gold. Now's the time.

Benihana
04-19-2010, 11:43 AM
Scott Sizemore...

And love the tone...

I'm sorry if you don't like the tone. I just think you have to think these kinds of things through. Do you really think the Reds would be improved as a team if they traded Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips for Miguel Cabrera? Trading a 26 yo 1B with a .981 OPS that makes <$1MM and a gold glove 2B who has been in the 30/30 club for a 1B with a .942 OPS who is owed more than $120MM over the next 6 years?

How does that possibly help this ballclub?

Your other two trade targets are as likely to be dealt at this point as Aroldis Chapman.

Benihana
04-19-2010, 11:44 AM
It's time to start cashing in these can't-miss prospects for actual-can't-miss MLB players.

Exactly. Bailey, Stubbs, Heisey, Frazier, Francisco, Alonso, and Wood can all go in the right deals. Not a single one of those prospects is indispensable.

Falls City Beer
04-19-2010, 11:53 AM
Exactly. Bailey, Stubbs, Heisey, Frazier, Francisco, Alonso, and Wood can all go in the right deals. Not a single one of those prospects is indispensable.

I'd definitely add Bruce to that list.

bucksfan2
04-19-2010, 12:08 PM
Yep. Chris Welsh mentioned the bad route Gomes took, the writers mentioned it, and the fans saw it too. That misplay cost the Reds two runs. It's the second straight start by Arroyo where an outfielder misplayed a flyball and cost Arroyo two runs (Stubbs in Florida last Tuesday). It was out of character for Stubbs. Gomes? Not so much. I hold my breath every time a ball is hit to him.

Sure Gomes may have taken a poor route but that was far from a routine fly ball. Its probably a ball that the best defensive LF gets to but Gomes isn't one of those. The Reds new that going into the season and felt that his bat was a need for this club.

edabbs44
04-19-2010, 12:08 PM
It's time to start cashing in these can't-miss prospects for actual-can't-miss MLB players.

It's no mistake that Scott Rolen is the team's best hitter. The Reds definitely have quite a bit of perceived talent in their minors (nationally they're getting a lot of attention, and the Chapman signing has only increased the Reds' profile): straw to gold. Now's the time.

How would you fund the committed capital to those can't miss MLB guys?

There needs to be a balance between the can't miss youngsters and the can't miss MLB guys, especially in a place like Ohio. Until you see some of the big money come off the balance sheet, there is no use in discussing this.

And I guarantee that Walt is aware of this. There's no use upping the payroll right now. When we see some payroll free up, that's when this becomes an option.

Falls City Beer
04-19-2010, 12:14 PM
And I guarantee that Walt is aware of this. There's no use upping the payroll right now. When we see some payroll free up, that's when this becomes an option.

Sounds good, but that "saved" payroll will go to some stiffs like Hernandez, or some middle reliever; or paying off the tail end of contracts for bums like Harang/Arroyo.

The problem with this organization is not that it doesn't spend money on players, it's that they refuse to keep pace with inflation. Also, they consistently mis-prioritize their acquisitions and overvalue their own possessions. That's a toxic gruel and an organizational culture that's probably going to require a different, more dynamic, GM to change.

They were moving in the right direction with the Rolen move; it seemed like a recognition that this organization produces subpar prospects. But then that move never solidified into a zeitgeist. Shame.

nate
04-19-2010, 12:15 PM
Sure Gomes may have taken a poor route but that was far from a routine fly ball. Its probably a ball that the best defensive LF gets to but Gomes isn't one of those. The Reds new that going into the season and felt that his bat was a need for this club.

It was a ball that any of the other LF options on the Reds bench could've gotten.

Benihana
04-19-2010, 12:28 PM
Sounds good, but that "saved" payroll will go to some stiffs like Hernandez, or some middle reliever; or paying off the tail end of contracts for bums like Harang/Arroyo.

The problem with this organization is not that it doesn't spend money on players, it's that they refuse to keep pace with inflation. Also, they consistently mis-prioritize their acquisitions and overvalue their own possessions. That's a toxic gruel and an organizational culture that's probably going to require a different, more dynamic, GM to change.

They were moving in the right direction with the Rolen move; it seemed like a recognition that this organization produces subpar prospects. But then that move never solidified into a zeitgeist. Shame.

FCB, what did you eat for breakfast this morning? You're actually talking reasonable!

edabbs44
04-19-2010, 12:32 PM
Sounds good, but that "saved" payroll will go to some stiffs like Hernandez, or some middle reliever; or paying off the tail end of contracts for bums like Harang/Arroyo.

The problem with this organization is not that it doesn't spend money on players, it's that they refuse to keep pace with inflation. Also, they consistently mis-prioritize their acquisitions and overvalue their own possessions. That's a toxic gruel and an organizational culture that's probably going to require a different, more dynamic, GM to change.

They were moving in the right direction with the Rolen move; it seemed like a recognition that this organization produces subpar prospects. But then that move never solidified into a zeitgeist. Shame.

I would give it until that money comes off the books. It is difficult to build a team when half your payroll is dedicated to 3 guys of varying levels of contribuion.

nate
04-19-2010, 12:47 PM
Yep. Chris Welsh mentioned the bad route Gomes took, the writers mentioned it, and the fans saw it too. That misplay cost the Reds two runs. It's the second straight start by Arroyo where an outfielder misplayed a flyball and cost Arroyo two runs (Stubbs in Florida last Tuesday). It was out of character for Stubbs. Gomes? Not so much. I hold my breath every time a ball is hit to him.

I thought three runs scored on the "double."

membengal
04-19-2010, 12:49 PM
One run would have scored on a Sac Fly if he had caught it.

nate
04-19-2010, 12:51 PM
One run would have scored on a Sac Fly if he had caught it.

OK, I thought there were two outs.

Falls City Beer
04-19-2010, 12:53 PM
I would give it until that money comes off the books. It is difficult to build a team when half your payroll is dedicated to 3 guys of varying levels of contribuion.

I don't disagree that Harang, Arroyo, and Cordero were terrible reads of the market. But they could have been traded at some point during Walt's tenure. They're harder to trade now, yes, but there was a time when they could have been moved.

OnBaseMachine
04-19-2010, 12:54 PM
I thought three runs scored on the "double."

As mem said, three runs scored but one would've scored on the sac fly.

Falls City Beer
04-19-2010, 12:54 PM
FCB, what did you eat for breakfast this morning? You're actually talking reasonable!

When facts change, so do the conclusions. No one should ever get a free pass for failure.

Benihana
04-19-2010, 01:14 PM
I don't disagree that Harang, Arroyo, and Cordero were terrible reads of the market. But they could have been traded at some point during Walt's tenure. They're harder to trade now, yes, but there was a time when they could have been moved.

I think Arroyo is more tradeable now than he has ever been. Cordero is going in that direction as well.

Harang, OTOH, is going in the opposite direction. Although I would argue that of the three, he was the best read of the market and a great deal at the time.

Falls City Beer
04-19-2010, 01:19 PM
I think Arroyo is more tradeable now than he has ever been. Cordero is going in that direction as well.

Harang, OTOH, is going in the opposite direction. Although I would argue that of the three, he was the best read of the market, and a great deal at the time.

Arroyo might be tradeable. Though it's certainly debateable; it appears they tried to move him last year in the middle of his resurgence.

In this market, I can't imagine much of a demand for a guy who throws 65 innings a season for $12 million. Maybe in July or August.

edabbs44
04-19-2010, 01:25 PM
I think Arroyo is more tradeable now than he has ever been. Cordero is going in that direction as well.

Harang, OTOH, is going in the opposite direction. Although I would argue that of the three, he was the best read of the market and a great deal at the time.

Arroyo's peak tradeability was in 2006, prior to the ill-fated extension. Then his trade value plummeted, reaching a nadir around mid-season last year. It is definitely close to its apex right now.

Benihana
04-19-2010, 01:31 PM
I can guarantee you the Mets would love to have him.

At which point I'd offer Cabrera and Frazier along with him, and ask for Jose Reyes in return.

REDblooded
04-19-2010, 01:33 PM
I'm sorry if you don't like the tone. I just think you have to think these kinds of things through. Do you really think the Reds would be improved as a team if they traded Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips for Miguel Cabrera? Trading a 26 yo 1B with a .981 OPS that makes <$1MM and a gold glove 2B who has been in the 30/30 club for a 1B with a .942 OPS who is owed more than $120MM over the next 6 years?

How does that possibly help this ballclub?

Your other two trade targets are as likely to be dealt at this point as Aroldis Chapman.

C'mon bro... You're getting snarky as heck, then telling me if I don't like it I can think it through. Meanwhile, you're suggesting we should trade for 3 players earning nearly 50 million a year with no trade clauses...

As far as Posey goes, he WOULD be nearly impossible to get, but if a team could open up the talent wallet and blow the giants away, I wouldn't rule it out as impossible... And as you mentioned, we have a glut of prospects that I'm sure would look very attractive to another team yet are blocked here... You can't tell me that if the Reds contacted SF right now and offered something along the lines of Hanigan, Maloney, Alonso, and Francisco for Posey they wouldn't have to give it thought...

As for the suggestion of Cabrera/SCOTT Sizemore for Votto/Phillips/Harang I can see it working for both teams... As the team is currently made up I would actually rather have Sizemore than Phillips at 2nd purely for the on-base skills, Votto won't be cheap for long, and Miggy would join the 45 HR club in a hurry in GABP...

Spring~Fields
04-19-2010, 01:38 PM
I don't disagree that Harang, Arroyo, and Cordero were terrible reads of the market. But they could have been traded at some point during Walt's tenure. They're harder to trade now, yes, but there was a time when they could have been moved.

I think that you're right. I think that they stayed because of a perceived need for experienced innings eating starters, and sure they want an experienced proven closer. They fired the old pitching coach, probably thinking what pitchers they had could be helped or restored by the new pitching coach. I don't know too many GM's or major league managers that want several young and unproven pitchers, starting or relieving for them at the same time.

Mr. Jocketty was able to move Dunn, and Griffey, not so easy to move. I forget where that money went. I guess into the pitching.

Falls City Beer
04-19-2010, 01:41 PM
I can guarantee you the Mets would love to have him.

At which point I'd offer Cabrera and Frazier along with him, and ask for Jose Reyes in return.

Reyes' recent injury problems have decidedly scared me away from him.

bucksfan2
04-19-2010, 01:42 PM
As for the suggestion of Cabrera/SCOTT Sizemore for Votto/Phillips/Harang I can see it working for both teams... As the team is currently made up I would actually rather have Sizemore than Phillips at 2nd purely for the on-base skills, Votto won't be cheap for long, and Miggy would join the 45 HR club in a hurry in GABP...

Miggy would either join that or the Machine Room Club in a hurry.

Cabrera is a great baseball talent but man that guy has some issues.

HokieRed
04-19-2010, 01:42 PM
Overvaluing what possessions we have is, I think, the FO's greatest failing, and it goes back to Bowden--think Sean Casey, Danny Graves. So far, and this is about my only reason for hopefulness, WJ has not done exactly this. He's made some acquisitions I haven't cared for and done some short term extensions we could have done without--WT in the first category, RH in the second, for example. But he hasn't yet made major misjudgments about the value of players over multiple years along the lines of Harang, Arroyo, Cordero, Phillips.

TRF
04-19-2010, 01:43 PM
Did Walt screw up?

Well, this is what I'd have done. It means nothing, it's just my opinion. Dickerson would have been the everyday CF. Stubbs would have been the 5th OF. Regardless of my opinion, he earned a shot at the 25 man roster last year. BTW, I'd be optioning him this week.

LF would have been Wlad and Dorn. Dorn is killing it at AAA. He's a LH version of Gomes, cheaper, younger, and kills RH pitching. And in a very limited sample, he's doing the same to LH's.

My OF's: Bruce, Dickerson, Dorn, Balentein, Stubbs.

Would I have signed Cabrera? I was against it, but I probably would have done it IF he'd accept a utility/bench role. Janish would have been my 2010 starter with Cozart in the wings. The Reds minor league depth at this position allows me to take a chance.

Scott Rolen reminds me of Eric Milton. Did his CHRONIC back injury suddenly, magically get better? I'd have never made that trade. Frazier (scuffling at AAA) would be my starter at 3B this year. EE to the bench. And yay, I keep Roenicke and Stewart. Because I didn't trade for Rolen, I have plenty O'Cash for Chapman.

None of this is hindsight. I said it at the time each move was made, and I stand by it.

Now, I would have spent the offseason looking for takers on Arroyo, Harang and Phillips. I'd have dangled Alonso for the right return. And there is that pitching depth.

Spring~Fields
04-19-2010, 01:44 PM
It's time to start cashing in these can't-miss prospects for actual-can't-miss MLB players.

It's no mistake that Scott Rolen is the team's best hitter. The Reds definitely have quite a bit of perceived talent in their minors (nationally they're getting a lot of attention, and the Chapman signing has only increased the Reds' profile): straw to gold. Now's the time.

Reds ownership group doesn't seem to have the money or faith in the market to support their increases.

So I think that is the one of the major option that Mr. Jocketty has to use. To trade off prospects, including a Bruce. If he can bring back something in ownerships comfort zone.

Though I do think that Joey Votto is presently a better hitter than Rolen with his back issues.

Falls City Beer
04-19-2010, 01:45 PM
Rolen was a gamble, but a very good one. He's far and away the best hitter on this team.

TRF
04-19-2010, 01:46 PM
no, no, no, no, no.... why on earth would you want to move 3 young, cheap players with upside for 3 costly players in decline?


Rolen was a gamble, but a very good one. He's far and away the best hitter on this team.

When he plays. Maybe. I don't think he's better than Votto. Not even close. Maybe in 2002.

Benihana
04-19-2010, 01:48 PM
Rolen was a gamble, but a very good one. He's far and away the best hitter on this team.

I agree with the first part, although only in my own hindsight. I'd take Joey Votto on the second part.

Spring~Fields
04-19-2010, 01:48 PM
The HR potential only applies to Gomes, for me. Right now I could see either Stubbs or Bruce getting demoted in the future if they don't pick it up and I would then be fine with Dickerson playing everyday. But the way the roster currently is, I'd rather see Dickerson in the 4th OF role.

I understand what you are saying, and if any of those guys ever hit or got on base, or around to home plate more often it would make it very easy to agree.

I can't help but think that all of those outfield guys are presently playing like fourth outfielders when they come to the plate, or worse. Of course we are told that they will get better.

Falls City Beer
04-19-2010, 01:48 PM
When he plays. Maybe. I don't think he's better than Votto. Not even close. Maybe in 2002.

Is Votto a .950 hitter? No way. His approach (and results) this season are probably closer to his career norms than his outlier season. I'd be stunned if he OPS over .850 this season.

REDREAD
04-19-2010, 01:50 PM
Walt Jocketty has had nearly as much time as Wayne Krivsky and I've yet to see any improvements. Unless the Reds make some improvements this season, I'd like to see Jocketty let go at the end of the season and replaced with a young up and coming GM, someone like a David Forst from Oakland.

Last year we won 5 more games than the year before. The run differential backed it up too.

If that's not considered improvement, then I don't think we will ever be satisfied. It takes a long time to turn around a baseball team unless you have unlimited funds.

Jocketty did start a complete teardown, just like everyone asked. He got rid of Jr and Dunn -- the only position players that have not turned over are 2b and 1b.

Sure, Walt has filled in some holes like C and SS and 3b with veterans until a better answer could be found. Having the fortitude to accept that EdE was a failure and not part of the solution was something no other GM was able to do.

Benihana
04-19-2010, 01:51 PM
C'mon bro... You're getting snarky as heck, then telling me if I don't like it I can think it through. Meanwhile, you're suggesting we should trade for 3 players earning nearly 50 million a year with no trade clauses...

Never said we should trade for all 3. And I still think my proposal for any one of those players, let alone 2 of them, would make us significantly better than trading Votto and Phillips for Miguel Cabrera.


As far as Posey goes, he WOULD be nearly impossible to get, but if a team could open up the talent wallet and blow the giants away, I wouldn't rule it out as impossible... And as you mentioned, we have a glut of prospects that I'm sure would look very attractive to another team yet are blocked here... You can't tell me that if the Reds contacted SF right now and offered something along the lines of Hanigan, Maloney, Alonso, and Francisco for Posey they wouldn't have to give it thought...

No they wouldn't. They wouldn't give that trade one iota of thought. Would you consider trading Chapman for four guys who were not among the top 100 prospects in the game, and hadn't contributed anything significant at the major league level?


As for the suggestion of Cabrera/SCOTT Sizemore for Votto/Phillips/Harang I can see it working for both teams... As the team is currently made up I would actually rather have Sizemore than Phillips at 2nd purely for the on-base skills, Votto won't be cheap for long, and Miggy would join the 45 HR club in a hurry in GABP...

Still disagree, sorry. That trade would not help the Reds win games, now or in the future.

edabbs44
04-19-2010, 01:52 PM
I can guarantee you the Mets would love to have him.

At which point I'd offer Cabrera and Frazier along with him, and ask for Jose Reyes in return.

Why on Earth would the Mets make that trade?

Spring~Fields
04-19-2010, 01:53 PM
Last year we won 5 more games than the year before. The run differential backed it up too.



That's very true, against three of the worst teams in all of baseball. :)

That is where their biggest improvements came from. :thumbup:

The offense has not improved.

TRF
04-19-2010, 01:54 PM
Is Votto a .950 hitter? No way. His approach (and results) this season are probably closer to his career norms than his outlier season. I'd be stunned if he OPS over .850 this season.

Scott Rolen hasn't OPS'd .900 since 2004. In fact he hasn't sniffed .900 Since then he's been about a .790 OPS bat.

meh.

Votto is a .900 OPS bat until he isn't. 12 games isn't a season.

Benihana
04-19-2010, 01:57 PM
Is Votto a .950 hitter? No way. His approach (and results) this season are probably closer to his career norms than his outlier season. I'd be stunned if he OPS over .850 this season.

I'd take the other side of that bet.

Votto OPS in the majors: .907, .874, .981 at ages 23-25. What in the world would make you stunned if he OPS'd over .850 at age 26? While I've agreed with you for most of this thread, this is where you get into trouble with hyperbole.

Benihana
04-19-2010, 02:00 PM
Why on Earth would the Mets make that trade?

Because they need pitching badly. And they need to win now, very badly.

There has been a lot of talk of them dealing Jose Reyes. Cabrera would give them a RELIABLE guy who has led his team to the playoffs for the last five years running. Reyes has played less than 50 games over the last two seasons. Arroyo would immediately bolster their rotation, possibly as the #2 starter behind Santana. And Frazier would give them a nice prospect/insurance policy on Ike Davis/David Wright/any of their current OFs.

Falls City Beer
04-19-2010, 02:01 PM
I'd take the other side of that bet.

Votto OPS in the majors: .907, .874, .981 at ages 23-25. What in the world would make you stunned if he OPS'd over .850 at age 26? While I've agreed with you for most of this thread, this is where you get into trouble with hyperbole.

I think he's been a bit lucky. Okay, I wouldn't be stunned maybe, but I don't think there's any doubt that he's closer to an .850-.875 hitter than he is .980.

TRF
04-19-2010, 02:02 PM
I think he's been a bit lucky. Okay, I wouldn't be stunned maybe, but I don't think there's any doubt that he's closer to an .850-.875 hitter than he is .980.

And Rolen is a .950 OPS bat?

REDblooded
04-19-2010, 02:07 PM
Isn't Reyes a FA after this season?

REDblooded
04-19-2010, 02:13 PM
I completely disagree though that the Giants wouldn't give thought to Maloney/Hanigan/Francisco/Alonso...

Maloney would be a solid 3/4 pitcher in SF where his fly ball tendencies would be masked by playing in SF/SD/LA... Bumgarner isn't anywhere close to the majors, they're trying to compete right now, and they're running out Wellenmeyer in the 5 spot... He's cheap and would be under control for a while.
Francisco is pretty similar in approach to another bat they've had great success with recently in Pablo Sandoval, who got about the same hype as Francisco as a prospect. First base is an organizational weakness for the Giants.
Alonso is still pretty highly regarded, is showing signs of bouncing back from the hamate injury, and is another cheap talent with high upside.
And Hanigan gives them a catcher they can play every day right now, won't cost much, and would be a defensive upgrade over anything they have now...
Maybe you wouldn't make the deal, but I don't think it's prudent to suggest that Posey would be impossible to trade for and that a package like that wouldn't help the Giants a ton both immediately, and in the future.

REDREAD
04-19-2010, 02:14 PM
That's very true, against three of the worst teams in all of baseball. :)

That is where their biggest improvements came from. :thumbup:

The offense has not improved.


You've got to be kidding me.
That's still an improvement. They apparently didn't get those wins from the weak teams in 2008.

If the Phillies win every game against the Nats this year, and make the playoffs, is anyone going to care that the Nats bloated their W-L record? Of course not.

Good teams beat up the weak teams.

Falls City Beer
04-19-2010, 02:38 PM
And Rolen is a .950 OPS bat?

I didn't say that; but he is the best hitter.

Stormy
04-19-2010, 02:55 PM
I didn't say that; but he is the best hitter.

With all due respect, no he hasn't been, no he isn't, and no he won't be. I'd rest assured that Joey Votto will produce northward of a 925OPS on the season, whereas Scott Rolen will be fortunate to venture much beyond an 800OPS. Rolen is obviously a very good veteran presence on the team, was a vast upgrade with the glove at 3B, and is invaluable as a source of demonstrating professionalism afield and at the plate to a young team. Conversely, he's likely to miss large swaths of the season with nagging injuries, and his best years with the bat are in the distant rearview mirror.

He would have been a great acquisition for a young team on the verge of contention, unfortunately that's likely not this group for a number of reasons. Regardless, Rolen sure isn't one of the problems with this team, and was likely a good acquisition by Walt.

Regarding the topic of this thread, this team still needs what it's needed since Walt checked his first to-do list: Personnel wise, that's a legitimate everyday masher in LF, a stalwart young SS of the future, an upgrade in 1/2 of the catching tandem, and a T.O.R. arm. From a managerial standpoint, that involves stressing a more patient plate approach philosophy, consistently putting the best available lineups on the field, and utilizing your best OBP table setters at the top of the order.

By my count, the acquisition of Chapman (and perhaps down the road, Leake) are the only moves in nearly 3 seasons that potentially addresses any of those seemingly self-evident criteria.

Lastly, some of the team's pervasive problems don't fall directly in the laps of Walt or Dusty, given that the F.O. and staff don't bear all of the responsibility for the prolonged growing pains of seemingly every youngster whose come through the pipeline in the past 3 years, aside from Votto.

TRF
04-19-2010, 03:00 PM
Maloney would be a solid 3/4 pitcher in SF where his fly ball tendencies would be masked by playing in SF/SD/LA... Bumgarner isn't anywhere close to the majors, they're trying to compete right now, and they're running out Wellenmeyer in the 5 spot... He's cheap and would be under control for a while.

This perception has to change soon. And though it's a small sample, Maloney has been reworking himself into a GB pitcher. It started towards the end of last year when he said he was learning a sinker, and so far he's carried it over to this year with a 66.7% GB rate.

TRF
04-19-2010, 03:02 PM
Is Votto a .950 hitter? No way. His approach (and results) this season are probably closer to his career norms than his outlier season. I'd be stunned if he OPS over .850 this season.

You certainly implied it.

REDblooded
04-19-2010, 03:31 PM
This perception has to change soon. And though it's a small sample, Maloney has been reworking himself into a GB pitcher. It started towards the end of last year when he said he was learning a sinker, and so far he's carried it over to this year with a 66.7% GB rate.

Ahhh, That's good to hear... I'm up pretty well on the majority of our prospects, but didn't realize Maloney had been working on his fly ball tendencies... Good to hear because that's the only reason I was a bit soured on him.

TRF
04-19-2010, 03:42 PM
It's only 12 innings so far, but the idea goes back to the end of his time at Louisville last year. Maloney is pitching for his life right now. He's either bound for someone's rotation or he's going to be the LH version of Lehr.

REDblooded
04-19-2010, 03:59 PM
It's only 12 innings so far, but the idea goes back to the end of his time at Louisville last year. Maloney is pitching for his life right now. He's either bound for someone's rotation or he's going to be the LH version of Lehr.

With the right team he'd have a pretty decent career... If he could land on a team that plays in a pitchers park he wouldn't have to stress the ground ball nearly as much and could continue to take his time with developing that part of his game... In the right park he'd be a 3/4 starter today imo.

Will M
04-19-2010, 04:50 PM
This thread has veered a bit from Cabrera/Hernandez into Walt's general compentence or lack thereof.
IMO a big problem with the 2010 team is that several players that we counted on to perform well have not done so.

#1 Cueto
#2 Bailey
As i said in another thread these guys are frustrating me to no end. I had hoped they would each give us 180+ innings with ERA+s north of 110.
Instead they have stunk. Five inning pitchers with WHIPs north of 1.7.
Thats terrible.

#3 Bruce. there is a whole thread about his lack of luck vs lack of skill so i won't go into it here

#4 Harang. blah in 1rst start. decent in 2nd. awful in 3rd. I had him pencilled in for 200 innings with an ERA+ of 100.

Now, combine that with an overall lack of talent on the team & you get a 5-8 record. Its not like a Gomes/Dickerson platoon in LF is going to give us 45 home runs. Or Hernandez/Hanigan will hit like Joe Mauer. The role players are not going to be able to carry the team. Nor should be ask rookies like Stubbs to carry the team. Honestly, it seems this team was built around the pitching. the plan was for Joey & the scrubbies to score just enough to win. if the pitching isn't going to be at the top of the league then this team is going to stink. Joey & the scrubbies are not going to be able to score like the Big Red Machine.

IF certain guys step it up we'll be ok this year.
IF NOT then we'll need a mid season sale & a fairly extensive rebuild.

Spring~Fields
04-19-2010, 04:59 PM
Good teams beat up the weak teams.

I guess that negates all the comments on improvement then, since the Reds are and have been one of the "weak teams" that the good teams beat up on. :lol:

:lastyear:

Spring~Fields
04-19-2010, 05:02 PM
IMO a big problem with the 2010 team is that several players that we counted on to perform well have not done so.


http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/batting?team=cin&cat=onBasePct&order=false&season=2010&split=0&seasonType=2&type=reg

Spring~Fields
04-19-2010, 05:08 PM
Regarding the topic of this thread, this team still needs what it's needed since Walt checked his first to-do list: Personnel wise, that's a legitimate everyday masher in LF, a stalwart young SS of the future, an upgrade in 1/2 of the catching tandem, and a T.O.R. arm. From a managerial standpoint, that involves stressing a more patient plate approach philosophy, consistently putting the best available lineups on the field, and utilizing your best OBP table setters at the top of the order.



:clap::clap::clap::clap::clap:

Falls City Beer
04-19-2010, 06:24 PM
This thread has veered a bit from Cabrera/Hernandez into Walt's general compentence or lack thereof.
IMO a big problem with the 2010 team is that several players that we counted on to perform well have not done so.

#1 Cueto
#2 Bailey
As i said in another thread these guys are frustrating me to no end. I had hoped they would each give us 180+ innings with ERA+s north of 110.
Instead they have stunk. Five inning pitchers with WHIPs north of 1.7.
Thats terrible.

#3 Bruce. there is a whole thread about his lack of luck vs lack of skill so i won't go into it here

#4 Harang. blah in 1rst start. decent in 2nd. awful in 3rd. I had him pencilled in for 200 innings with an ERA+ of 100.

Now, combine that with an overall lack of talent on the team & you get a 5-8 record. Its not like a Gomes/Dickerson platoon in LF is going to give us 45 home runs. Or Hernandez/Hanigan will hit like Joe Mauer. The role players are not going to be able to carry the team. Nor should be ask rookies like Stubbs to carry the team. Honestly, it seems this team was built around the pitching. the plan was for Joey & the scrubbies to score just enough to win. if the pitching isn't going to be at the top of the league then this team is going to stink. Joey & the scrubbies are not going to be able to score like the Big Red Machine.

IF certain guys step it up we'll be ok this year.
IF NOT then we'll need a mid season sale & a fairly extensive rebuild.

No we shouldn't be asking Stubbs to be an all-star, but we should expect improvement on his Wily Taveras-like numbers.

If the team was built around the pitching, lord help us.

TheNext44
04-19-2010, 06:49 PM
Regarding the topic of this thread, this team still needs what it's needed since Walt checked his first to-do list: Personnel wise, that's a legitimate everyday masher in LF, a stalwart young SS of the future, an upgrade in 1/2 of the catching tandem, and a T.O.R. arm.


I think that Jocketty did not see these as first on his to do list. In fact, I think he considered them pretty far down the list.

His first job was to rebuild a crumbling organization from the ground up. And he has done good job of that, precisely but not making those issue priorities.

What has doomed this organization for the past decade has been thinking that by filling in the holes that the previous or current season revealed, that this team would be contenders. The problem is that because there was no depth in the organization, the only way to do that was to create other holes in the organization.

So Jocketty took a mulligan for the MLB team his first full year, and focused on the building that depth, so that he could fill the holes on the 25 man roster without creating any new ones. It's been tough to watch and probably will be for most of this season, but I think it was done in the best interest of the overall health and longterm success of the team.

Kc61
04-19-2010, 07:01 PM
So Jocketty took a mulligan for the MLB team his first full year, and focused on the building that depth, so that he could fill the holes on the 25 man roster without creating any new ones. It's been tough to watch and probably will be for most of this season, but I think it was done in the best interest of the overall health and longterm success of the team.


Whatever depth Walt has built won't matter unless he finds a way to convert that depth to a winning ballclub.

At some point, this will require paying somebody for star performance.

You aren't beating Pujois, Holliday, Carpenter and Wainright just by developing kids. The Reds will need their own stars. There are precious few candidates in house.

So, one off season, maybe next year or who knows when, the Reds are going to have to find a way to get more high level players. If they think they can win just by developing kids and acquiring low-cost free agents, they are not being realistic.

REDblooded
04-19-2010, 07:10 PM
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/batting?team=cin&cat=onBasePct&order=false&season=2010&split=0&seasonType=2&type=reg

On the plus side we're getting really great production from the pitchers... at the plate.

TRF
04-19-2010, 09:39 PM
I think that Jocketty did not see these as first on his to do list. In fact, I think he considered them pretty far down the list.

His first job was to rebuild a crumbling organization from the ground up. And he has done good job of that, precisely but not making those issue priorities.

What has doomed this organization for the past decade has been thinking that by filling in the holes that the previous or current season revealed, that this team would be contenders. The problem is that because there was no depth in the organization, the only way to do that was to create other holes in the organization.

So Jocketty took a mulligan for the MLB team his first full year, and focused on the building that depth, so that he could fill the holes on the 25 man roster without creating any new ones. It's been tough to watch and probably will be for most of this season, but I think it was done in the best interest of the overall health and longterm success of the team.

Walt rebuilt? where? if you mean reap the rewards of a rebuilt farm started by DanO and continued by WK, then yes. he rebuilt.

Falls City Beer
04-19-2010, 09:44 PM
Walt rebuilt? where? if you mean reap the rewards of a rebuilt farm started by DanO and continued by WK, then yes. he rebuilt.

A pretty crummy farm at that, as it turns out.

TRF
04-20-2010, 11:45 AM
A pretty crummy farm at that, as it turns out.

no. the farm Walt inherited wasn't crummy. It lacked a Ryan Braun. It lacked an Evan Longoria. It lacked a Yovanni Gallardo.

It lacked the big name fast track kid that explodes in the minors and never looks back once hitting the big club. A lot of people expected Bruce to be that guy. Frazier could have been that guy, but Walt went for Rolen instead. Heisey could be that guy in either CF or LF this or next year. If it is CF, LF is still unresolved for 2010/2011. Unless Alonso kicks the door down. And now RF is a question mark, but I can't blame Walt for that. So what exactly has he rebuilt?

nothing.

He's added players like all GM's do. Chapman was a great signing, as was Yorman Rodriguez, but that was set in motion, (Yorman) when WK signed Juan Duran. That may have been made possible by the early success of Johnny Cueto (DanO) Dan)'s drafts remade the Farm. Krivsky's drafts and international signings bolstered it. As have Walt's. But he didn't remake a thing.

HokieRed
04-20-2010, 11:49 AM
After 10 games at Louisville, Frazier has a .557 OPS. I like him but he's going to have a hard time dislodging Rolen at 3b.

Falls City Beer
04-20-2010, 12:08 PM
no. the farm Walt inherited wasn't crummy. It lacked a Ryan Braun. It lacked an Evan Longoria. It lacked a Yovanni Gallardo.

It lacked the big name fast track kid that explodes in the minors and never looks back once hitting the big club. A lot of people expected Bruce to be that guy. Frazier could have been that guy, but Walt went for Rolen instead. Heisey could be that guy in either CF or LF this or next year. If it is CF, LF is still unresolved for 2010/2011. Unless Alonso kicks the door down. And now RF is a question mark, but I can't blame Walt for that. So what exactly has he rebuilt?

nothing.

He's added players like all GM's do. Chapman was a great signing, as was Yorman Rodriguez, but that was set in motion, (Yorman) when WK signed Juan Duran. That may have been made possible by the early success of Johnny Cueto (DanO) Dan)'s drafts remade the Farm. Krivsky's drafts and international signings bolstered it. As have Walt's. But he didn't remake a thing.

A farm that has produced the myriad question marks that this farm has produced is not a terribly healthy farm. It's a farm that's gotten good press, but that doesn't mean it's creating MLB players.

TRF
04-20-2010, 12:19 PM
A farm that has produced the myriad question marks that this farm has produced is not a terribly healthy farm. It's a farm that's gotten good press, but that doesn't mean it's creating MLB players.

Joey Votto and Jay Bruce are Major League players. By the end of this year, you will likely see Heisey, Cozart or Frazier. Maybe Francisco.

Bailey, Cueto and Leake are all major league players. I don't think all three will underperform all year. Chapman, Maloney and Wood are on the precipice. There are several bullpen arms also ready for a jump to the major leagues. The farm isn't the issue. The issue is what has he done to affect the major league roster. He's added an old 3B with chronic back problems. He's added an old SS that lacks range and is living off a defensive rep he can no longer live up to. He signed a platoon OF that is defensively challenged at best. He's hoping someone takes the CF job (seems like it's going to be Dickerson, but who knows. He's sticking with the RF drafted by the GM prior to the guy he replaced, and that is probably the right move.

Overall, he hasn't done much to make the team better, just different.

Falls City Beer
04-20-2010, 12:21 PM
Joey Votto and Jay Bruce are Major League players. By the end of this year, you will likely see Heisey, Cozart or Frazier. Maybe Francisco.

Bailey, Cueto and Leake are all major league players. I don't think all three will underperform all year. Chapman, Maloney and Wood are on the precipice. There are several bullpen arms also ready for a jump to the major leagues. The farm isn't the issue. The issue is what has he done to affect the major league roster. He's added an old 3B with chronic back problems. He's added an old SS that lacks range and is living off a defensive rep he can no longer live up to. He signed a platoon OF that is defensively challenged at best. He's hoping someone takes the CF job (seems like it's going to be Dickerson, but who knows. He's sticking with the RF drafted by the GM prior to the guy he replaced, and that is probably the right move.

Overall, he hasn't done much to make the team better, just different.

Votto. That's it, IMO.

TRF
04-20-2010, 12:28 PM
Votto. That's it, IMO.

Your opinion is wrong. The farm produced Bruce, Cueto, Bailey, Votto, Stubbs(ugh), Dickerson, Hanigan, Ondrusek. Frazier, Cozart and Heisey will be major leaguers, likely this year.

All currently major league players. Votto is the star. Bruce may be coming out of his funk, star potential. Dickerson is hitting. Cueto and Bailey had flashes last year, especially Cueto's first half. Dominant is a word I'd use.

Teams slump. it's only 13 games.

Spring~Fields
04-20-2010, 12:55 PM
.

He's added players like all GM's do. Chapman was a great signing, as was Yorman Rodriguez, but that was set in motion, (Yorman) when WK signed Juan Duran. That may have been made possible by the early success of Johnny Cueto (DanO) Dan)'s drafts remade the Farm. Krivsky's drafts and international signings bolstered it. As have Walt's.

But he didn't remake a thing.

Perhaps I am wrong. I am not sure that you are being completely fair.

Wouldn’t it be correct to give Mr. Jocketty credit for these 22 contributions to the offense and pitching down below in his remaking of the team or not?

2008 Cincinnati Reds Special Advisor to President/CEO (Named GM 4/23/2008)
2009 Cincinnati Reds President, Baseball Operations/GM General Manager


2008, 2009, 2010
Arthur Rhodes 39
David Weathers 39
Miguel Cairo 36
Orlando Cabrera 35
Mike Lincoln 35
Scott Rolen 34
Ramon Hernandez 33
Jerry Hairston 33
Corky Miller 33
Kip Wells 32
Justin Lehr 31
Darnell McDonald 30
Jonny Gomes 28
Laynce Nix 28
Nick Masset 27
Willy Taveras 27
Drew Sutton 26
Danny Richar 26
Micah Owings 26
Wilkin Castillo 25
Wladimir Balentien 24
Mike Leake 22
669/22 av’g age 30.4

One more question, 669/22 av’g age 30.4, a move toward youth and the Cincinnati Reds mantra of young? And the quality?



His first job was to rebuild a crumbling organization from the ground up. And he has done good job of that, precisely but not making those issue priorities.

What has doomed this organization for the past decade has been thinking that by filling in the holes that the previous or current season revealed, that this team would be contenders. The problem is that because there was no depth in the organization, the only way to do that was to create other holes in the organization.

So Jocketty took a mulligan for the MLB team his first full year, and focused on the building that depth, so that he could fill the holes on the 25 man roster without creating any new ones. It's been tough to watch and probably will be for most of this season, but I think it was done in the best interest of the overall health and longterm success of the team.

:confused:

TRF
04-20-2010, 01:16 PM
double post

TRF
04-20-2010, 01:18 PM
Perhaps I am wrong. I am not sure that you are being completely fair.

Wouldn’t it be correct to give Mr. Jocketty credit for these 22 contributions to the offense and pitching down below in his remaking of the team or not?

2008 Cincinnati Reds Special Advisor to President/CEO (Named GM 4/23/2008)
2009 Cincinnati Reds President, Baseball Operations/GM General Manager


2008, 2009, 2010
Arthur Rhodes 39
David Weathers 39
Miguel Cairo 36
Orlando Cabrera 35
Mike Lincoln 35
Scott Rolen 34
Ramon Hernandez 33
Jerry Hairston 33
Corky Miller 33
Kip Wells 32
Justin Lehr 31
Darnell McDonald 30
Jonny Gomes 28
Laynce Nix 28
Nick Masset 27
Willy Taveras 27
Drew Sutton 26
Danny Richar 26
Micah Owings 26
Wilkin Castillo 25
Wladimir Balentien 24
Mike Leake 22
669/22 av’g age 30.4

One more question, 669/22 av’g age 30.4, a move toward youth and the Cincinnati Reds mantra of young? And the quality?



:confused:

How much credit though?

Corky? organization fodder. Nix? No one wanted him. Taveras? really?

Cabrera and Rolen made the team different. Do they make the team better?

Expanding further, he brought back Weathers, Lincoln. Did WK sign Lincoln first?. Hairston, good times. McDonald did nothing. How many players from that list are impact players? Leake, maybe. Rolen, possibly if he can stay healthy. Rhodes... not really an impact player.

Spring~Fields
04-20-2010, 01:26 PM
How much credit though?

Corky? organization fodder. Nix? No one wanted him. Taveras? really?

Cabrera and Rolen made the team different. Do they make the team better?

Expanding further, he brought back Weathers, Lincoln. Did WK sign Lincoln first?. Hairston, good times. McDonald did nothing. How many players from that list are impact players? Leake, maybe. Rolen, possibly if he can stay healthy. Rhodes... not really an impact player.

I think that he does get credit for what each of those brought to the team and the cost benefit analysis. They all have an impact, one way or another. I believe when I looked it up, Lincoln signing came under his tenure.

I have been reading FCB and everyone else, and that is what I am trying to figure out throughout all the thoughts, opinions, and expressions, so I was trying to take a look and see. I thought it would be a low blow or dirty shot if I had listed Baker as his manager and his team win/loss under Walt Jocketty too. Which some would consider as being the impact results.

TRF
04-20-2010, 01:34 PM
Impact players added by WK:

Arroyo
Phillips
Ross (for a season)
Volquez
Hamilton
DRH (to the extent that Rhodes is an impact player)
Burton (See above)
Hatteburg
Lohse

DanO:

Cueto
Bailey
Bruce
Janish (yeah, yeah)
Zach Ward who became Kyle Lohse

I can give Walt time on his minor league selections and int'l free agents like Chapman and Yorman. But the above, even DanO have had more influence on the 25 man roster. The team's best player was drafted by Bowden.

TRF
04-20-2010, 01:44 PM
As Spring~Fields points out, the credit assigned to Walt for the players he has brought to the team evokes IMO a duck and cover mentality. Meaning if someone told me I had done that to my team, I'd duck and cover.

edabbs44
04-20-2010, 01:58 PM
Impact players added by WK:

Arroyo
Phillips
Ross (for a season)
Volquez
Hamilton
DRH (to the extent that Rhodes is an impact player)
Burton (See above)
Hatteburg
Lohse

DanO:

Cueto
Bailey
Bruce
Janish (yeah, yeah)
Zach Ward who became Kyle Lohse

I can give Walt time on his minor league selections and int'l free agents like Chapman and Yorman. But the above, even DanO have had more influence on the 25 man roster. The team's best player was drafted by Bowden.

Seriously, this is about as distorted a view as you can get.

Falls City Beer
04-20-2010, 01:59 PM
I guess I don't care who should get credit for what: the farm hasn't produced much outside of Votto and a #4 starter in Cueto and a #5/fringe starter/likely bullpenner Bailey. The best thing the farm has produced in the last calendar year is Scott Rolen.

TRF
04-20-2010, 02:00 PM
Seriously, this is about as distorted a view as you can get.

really. did those GM's NOT add those players?

And who did Walt add to the 25 man roster in his going on three years that has made a difference? a middle reliever?

REDblooded
04-20-2010, 02:45 PM
really. did those GM's NOT add those players?

And who did Walt add to the 25 man roster in his going on three years that has made a difference? a middle reliever?

Rolen?

And let's be fair here... It's not like he's been given a ton of payroll flexibility... The majority of what he has to work with was already invested before he arrived..

I would also suggest that Bryan Price was a pretty nice hire...

TRF
04-20-2010, 03:04 PM
Rolen?

And let's be fair here... It's not like he's been given a ton of payroll flexibility... The majority of what he has to work with was already invested before he arrived..

I would also suggest that Bryan Price was a pretty nice hire...

Rolen MIGHT be an impact player. or he could play in 100 games this year, missing significant time due to chronic back problems that everyone who follows baseball knows about.

I'll give you Price to a point, but he doesn't throw the pitches. And so far the results kinda suck.

REDblooded
04-20-2010, 03:09 PM
Rolen MIGHT be an impact player. or he could play in 100 games this year, missing significant time due to chronic back problems that everyone who follows baseball knows about.

I'll give you Price to a point, but he doesn't throw the pitches. And so far the results kinda suck.

Takes a while to undo the damage...

pedro
04-20-2010, 03:11 PM
I guess I don't care who should get credit for what: the farm hasn't produced much outside of Votto and a #4 starter in Cueto and a #5/fringe starter/likely bullpenner Bailey. The best thing the farm has produced in the last calendar year is Scott Rolen.

I have to agree with FCB here. I still believe in Jay Bruce but until he actually starts succeeding, it's nothing but potential.

mth123
04-20-2010, 03:24 PM
Maybe we're too quick to give credit for Price. He sounds good, but he left Brandon Webb a broken man in AZ and IMO he did a poor job preparing the pitchers this spring. Normally, these guys go 2 innings, then 3, then 5 a couple of times and maybe pushed to 7 in their spring starts. The Reds didn't cut down the large number of 5th spot candidates until too late and limited the innings too much in order to give everyone a look IMO. Many of these guys were just pushing it to 5 innings in their final spring start. My theory (and its only that) is that the dead arm period came later for these guys because of the reduced load and we've seen that slow start in the rotation as a result. These guys seemed to hit the wall in the last week of spring when normally they are emerging from the dead arm period at about that time. Did the slow IP progressions cause the delay and did the dead arm period carry into the season? If so, is Price the culprit or is it on Dusty and/or Walt?

I think the pitchers buck-up in the next couple of weeks, but I think the low IP stints in spring may have something to do with the slow start.

Of course, I could be way off, but I wonder....

REDblooded
04-20-2010, 03:26 PM
I have to agree with FCB here. I still believe in Jay Bruce but until he actually starts succeeding, it's nothing but potential.

I'd still say he's potentially further along than most 23 years olds...

TRF
04-20-2010, 03:32 PM
I'd still say he's potentially further along than most 23 years olds...

playing devils advocate, further along than most 23 year olds in professional baseball or most in Major League Baseball? The former, absolutely, the latter? maybe not.

REDblooded
04-20-2010, 03:45 PM
playing devils advocate, further along than most 23 year olds in professional baseball or most in Major League Baseball? The former, absolutely, the latter? maybe not.

Not really sure that you could name 10 position players 23 or under that are further along than Jay Bruce is right now...

TRF
04-20-2010, 03:48 PM
Not really sure that you could name 10 position players 23 or under that are further along than Jay Bruce is right now...

Actually, maybe you can...

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/maxage/23/sort/OPS/order/true

durl
04-20-2010, 03:55 PM
Not really sure that you could name 10 position players 23 or under that are further along than Jay Bruce is right now...

A .237 career hitter (sure...only 2 seasons) with a .305 OBP?

I believe the guy has potential but I'm ready to see some better results. While it may just be a mindset, it's hard not to expect more from a guy who's in his third season in the big leagues...even if he's only 23.

eh...or I'm just feeling cynical because of how poorly this team is performing on the whole right now.

durl
04-20-2010, 03:58 PM
Actually, maybe you can...

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/maxage/23/sort/OPS/order/true

Barely.

Put in a minimum of 50 AB and Bruce ranks 12th in OBP.

I checked last year with at least 100 AB and Bruce ranked 14th.

REDblooded
04-20-2010, 03:59 PM
Actually, maybe you can...

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/maxage/23/sort/OPS/order/true

That's a phenomenal sample size... By those standards we should go ahead and just etch Vernon Wells's name on the AL MVP...

REDblooded
04-20-2010, 04:01 PM
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/year/2009/maxage/23/split/45/sort/OPS

Hey look, now he's third!

TRF
04-20-2010, 04:04 PM
oooh sorting by month. That's much more meaningful than OPS, OBP, SLG or even BA.

And from last year too.

now, he's 23rd.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/year/2009/maxage/23/sort/OPS/qualified/false

now he's not even listed.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/year/2009/maxage/23/sort/OPS/qualified/true

now with a minimum of 350 PA's, he's 10th. BTW I'd take the top three on this list over Bruce.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/year/2009/maxage/23/sort/atBats/minpa/350

REDblooded
04-20-2010, 04:11 PM
Isn't that kind of what you did when sorting by season... in April?

TRF
04-20-2010, 04:17 PM
Isn't that kind of what you did when sorting by season... in April?

maybe, but i just grabbed this years total. I didn't cherry pick intentionally.

However from that list, I'd take the following over Jay Bruce right now.

Heyward
Sandoval
Jackson
Andrus
Upton

And about 7 starting pitchers.

And I like Jay Bruce alot. I don't think he'll ever BB a lot, but the power is legit. The defense is stellar, and I think he can be a .280 .360 .500+ guy.

Be nice to see it though.

REDblooded
04-20-2010, 04:22 PM
maybe, but i just grabbed this years total. I didn't cherry pick intentionally.

However from that list, I'd take the following over Jay Bruce right now.

Heyward
Sandoval
Jackson
Andrus
Upton

And about 7 starting pitchers.

And I like Jay Bruce alot. I don't think he'll ever BB a lot, but the power is legit. The defense is stellar, and I think he can be a .280 .360 .500+ guy.

Be nice to see it though.

That was my point... Not trying to trash what you were saying at all, and I can understand becoming a bit impatient at this point, but using this season is an incredibly small sample size... If he's still showing no signs of improving by the break, then we have a conversation.

And I agree with most of the names you listed above, but wouldn't take Sandoval or Jackson over Bruce. Jackson is getting lucky right now, and as soon as pitchers figure out his weaknesses, he'll take a bit of a hit. Sandoval... Well, he won't have nearly as long of a career as Bruce on his current diet... As for pitchers, they can develop a lot quicker, and it's not an equal comparison, that's why I wanted to limit it to just position players.

Falls City Beer
04-20-2010, 04:23 PM
It's all well and good not to be a superstar by age 23, but it's another to continue to regress as Bruce has since coming up.

edabbs44
04-20-2010, 04:26 PM
really. did those GM's NOT add those players?

And who did Walt add to the 25 man roster in his going on three years that has made a difference? a middle reliever?

No, they added them. But calling some of them impact players is comical, at best.

And it is amazing that a GM could add so many "impact" guys and have the team's Ws decrease until his leadership. With so many impact additions, you would think that performance would improve.

TRF
04-20-2010, 04:31 PM
I'll give you the pitchers, because I agree. Sandoval won't have as long a career. Will Bruce ever have a season like he did last year though?

TRF
04-20-2010, 04:33 PM
No, they added them. But calling some of them impact players is comical, at best.

And it is amazing that a GM could add so many "impact" guys and have the team's Ws decrease until his leadership. With so many impact additions, you would think that performance would improve.

Continue to ignore just how BAD the Reds were from 2001-2005. WK remade a rotation in shambles.

TheNext44
04-20-2010, 04:49 PM
Here's my take on the whole Jocketty vs. Krivsky vs OBrien debate.

OBrien was brought in to do a long term rebuilding job, and while his management of the 25 man roster was a joke, he did a solid job strengthening the farm system. Unfortunately Linder changed course after less than a year, and told OBrien to go buy some pitchers on the Free Market. We all know how that turned out. If OBrien had been allowed to stick to just developing the farm, I think he would have done a fine job, and been replaced by Jocketty about the time that Jocketty replaced Krivsky, although probably one month into a season.

Krivsky was great at finding cheap talent for the 25 man roster, and did a decent job of continuing OBrien's focus on the farm system. However, he too was told to "go for it" and made too many moves aimed at filling holes, which actually created different holes somewhere else. The big contracts to the big three helped build a solid pitching staff, but at the expense of payflex. And the offensive surplus the Reds had, went to adding blah relievers. Even the Hamilton/Volquez trade falls into this category.

So both OBrien and Krivsky addes a lot of talent to the organization, but never were able to have a long term plan, to no fault of their own.

Jocketty is the lucky recipient of all of their hard work, and somehow he has been able to convince Cast to stay the course, to actually build long term. He has developed and instituted a plan to strengthen the organization at every position, and return to a focus on pitching and defense. Who know if this will be successful, but that is what he has done.

So Jocketty is only successful at this because of the hard work and smart moves of OBrien and Krivsky, but he has separated himself from them, in his ability to develop a long term plan and convince Cast to stick with it.