View Full Version : Groundball vs Flyball Reds Pitchers

04-09-2010, 10:50 PM
From 2009:


Sorry for the huge image. I can't do tables like Spring Fields can. Perhaps somebody can show me.

Anyway, I think I've caught on to something that should be obvious - that ground ball and fly ball rates are very important for our pitchers.

Seeing the chart above, the pitchers in red have all experienced a diminished role with the Reds, have they not?

But what about Harang?

Well, if I had to guess who they really would like to trade, it would be Harang. He simply allows too many fly balls and not enough GB.

His approach, which produces a 3:1 K:BB ratio, is completely necessary due to all the HR's he gives up. He simply forces the hitter to beat him, preferably before anyone's on base because he knows he's going to allow a lot of FB. Hopefully, this year his K's will get back on track, because he relies on them.


As you look at the rest of the chart, the brown indicates starting pitcher candidates this year. Cueto and Bailey are sort of average, although I really like the low 35% FB rate by Bailey. If he ever starts striking guys out like he did in the minors this could be good.

Also mixed in the middle are some decent relief pitchers and some bad ones. Lincoln does okay with GB% and only gives up 38% FB, but 1 out of 4 leave the park!

Down near the bottom, with GB% in the 50's, DRH and Masset show their worthiness in the pen for sure. Also grouped near the bottom are Volquez and Arroyo with about 45% GB and mid 30% FB rates. Are these not our best SP's over the last 2-3 years?

These "good" numbers for GB% on our staff are very merely average league wide. Some guys like Webb, famously, sit at 60% GB rate and the results speak for themselves.

Nothings hard and fast about what I'm saying, control definitely factors in (see Wells, Kip: cut), but the overall philosophy of GB vs FB pitchers should be visible, no?

My only question is why don't we have more dominant GB starting pitchers for GABP? Perhaps someone can tell me which of our minor leaguers will step up in the future with high GB rates. Leake? Chapman? Wood (I don't think so last time I checked), Klinker?

04-09-2010, 11:21 PM
For 2008:


Clearly our staff was a mess in 2008. Take it for what you will, I've applied the same color scheme to this one, but did add red in the hr/fb%.

Control + high GB% = good for GABP

04-10-2010, 03:01 AM
Gotta LOL at Lincoln's HR/FB