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View Full Version : The offense is dreadful to watch.



fearofpopvol1
04-11-2010, 04:16 PM
I won't even single out specific players, but they can't lay off breaking pitches to save their lives, they can't take a walk, they hack hack hack and show absolutely no patience at the plate, they can't seem to move runners over well and they strikeout at alarming rates. I know when you're facing stud pitchers they're likely to get the best of you. But...some of these things are within their control and they have not collectively done an impressive job 6 games in with any of these things.

I know I know, it's only 6 games and somehow the Reds are .500, so why should I complain? The only thing that's saving them is the starting pitching has been awesome so far. They can't continue to win games with offense this poor. Dusty should require them all to spend extra hours in the cages.

Scrap Irony
04-11-2010, 04:18 PM
They need to stop swinging at balls.

It's really that simple.

Ron Madden
04-11-2010, 04:21 PM
I've been concerned about the offense all along.

Tom Servo
04-11-2010, 04:24 PM
is dreadful to watch.

BCubb2003
04-11-2010, 04:25 PM
They're averaging 3.6 runs a game, which might be what you'd expect from a pitching/defense-oriented team. They'd better keep bringing the pitching, though.

OnBaseMachine
04-11-2010, 04:29 PM
This offense is bad, bad, bad, and that's putting it nicely. This bunch will be lucky to score 650 runs this season. They're a bunch of hackers.

Take today for example:

6th inning: runner on 3rd, one out, 3-1 count on Cabrera - he swings at a 3-1 pitch at the ankles, and then K's on a pitch in the dirt. He swung at ball 4 and 5, both of wich were well out of the strikezone.

7th inning: runners on first and second, one out, 1-0 on Gomes - he swings at three straight pitches at the ankles.

Bruce chased some bad pitches in his lone atbat, and Phillips of course chases everything.

Stubbs and Votto looked bad today too.

Thanks goodness the pitching staff bailed them out. With a little offense at all, the Reds would've swept the Cubs and would be sitting at 4-2 right now.

Spring~Fields
04-11-2010, 04:31 PM
Hmm, Interesting.

Mario-Rijo
04-11-2010, 04:35 PM
I agree too much hacking going on. I won't however give them too much grief over today as Gorzellany was filthy with his change and breaking pitches. His stuff was darting and breaking like you want it to and his location was on point all day. And Lou did a good job of keeping the breaking pitches on us with Marshall and Grabow etc. Once the guy who has little more than a good FB (Carridad) came in we caught up a bit.

Will M
04-11-2010, 04:37 PM
pre seaon i thought that the Reds offense would be OK if a two things happened:
1. the catcher & shortstop positions were not a black hole. so far so good here. while Cabrerea & Hernandez/Hanigan won't be making any all star teams they have been ok
2. Jay Bruce took a big step forward. so far red flags all around. i know that he has smoked some balls that were caught but count me as one concerned that he will not take the big step forward that this team needs

the biggest problem the Reds have is that they only have one truly above average offensive player (Votto). Phillips & Rolen are solid. Stubbs is a rookie. Bruce had a poor 2009. SS & Catcher are not going to lead the charge offensively. Guys like Gomes & Dickerson are useful players in the right circumstances but these guys scream 'solid bench player' on a playoff caliber team.

I suspect that Walt is going to have to make some sort of big trade mid season for the team to make the playoffs. hopefully they can stay close until then. its also possible that one of the AAA players (Frazier?) could step up and help the team.

one last note: all these games were we don't score & especially don't score early are going to put a mental strain on the pitchers (not to mention me!). its tough to pitch when you feel like every pitch has to be perfect.

Screwball
04-11-2010, 04:44 PM
I agree too much hacking going on. I won't however give them too much grief over today as Gorzellany was filthy with his change and breaking pitches. His stuff was darting and breaking like you want it to and his location was on point all day. And Lou did a good job of keeping the breaking pitches on us with Marshall and Grabow etc. Once the guy who has little more than a good FB (Carridad) came in we caught up a bit.

I think this is an excellent point. This team, for the most part, really struggles with offspeed stuff. We need more Scott Rolens.

OnBaseMachine
04-11-2010, 04:49 PM
In the last four games, the Reds have faced Brad Penny, Carlos Silva, and Tom Gorzelanny.

Brad Penny:

2008 - 94.2 IP, 6.27 ERA
2009 - 173.1 IP, 4.88 ERA (5.61 with Boston)

Carlos Silva:

2008 - 153.1 IP, 6.46 ERA
2009 - 30.1 IP, 8.60 ERA

Tom Gorzelanny:

2008 - 105.1 IP, 6.66 ERA
2009 - 47 IP, 5.55 ERA

Those three pitchers were three of the worst starting pitchers in baseball during the 2008 and 2009 seasons. So far this season, the Reds offense has scored a combined 3 runs (two earned) in 19.1 innings against that trio of pitchers. That's awful.

Topcat
04-11-2010, 04:52 PM
From the 3 games I have been able to watch. I have noticed a true propensity to hack away something awful. the kids you can kinda of cut some slack but the vets have been awful.

Falls City Beer
04-11-2010, 04:52 PM
With so many principal players not performing (Votto, Phillips, Bruce), you're going to score 3.6 runs a game. But yeah, I'll echo what others are saying: offspeed stuff on or just off the outside corner is an automatic out against everyone right now not named Rolen.

RedsManRick
04-11-2010, 05:08 PM
I don't know what offense you guys were watching, but I thought that Mike Leake kid had a pretty good approach up there. It'll be nice to see him working the pitchers every day....

Spring~Fields
04-11-2010, 05:19 PM
They need to stop swinging at balls.

It's really that simple.


I agree too much hacking going on.

Those players have the last three years slash stats that they did and do for real reasons.

Not to mention the three year splits.

Most of these guys were not very good with OBP to begin with.

Teams like that are suppose to have trouble scoring runs.

They normally don't do "huge" ;) increases or improvements.

I can't help but to remember the projections and predictions and comments.

Spring~Fields
04-11-2010, 05:35 PM
I don't know what offense you guys were watching, but I thought that Mike Leake kid had a pretty good approach up there. It'll be nice to see him working the pitchers every day....

When there are so many players at one time playing under even their performance and productions numbers. Do you feel that since there are so many at one time, that it might be the instructions that they are receiving, that might be having an influence on their approach at the plate?

Several of the names and faces have changed, though their numbers from the past are closely similiar to those that were replaced, but, even with the faces and names changing, we have seen this similiarity and characteristics of a Reds team for the past couple years. I think.

Mario-Rijo
04-11-2010, 05:40 PM
Those players have the last three years slash stats that they did and do for real reasons.

Not to mention the three year splits.

Most of these guys were not very good with OBP to begin with.

Teams like that are suppose to have trouble scoring runs.

They normally don't do "huge" ;) increases or improvements.

I can't help but to remember the projections and predictions and comments.

All true however these guys have been bad even for them to this point.

KoryMac5
04-11-2010, 05:49 PM
As Brantley and Thom continue to say in the booth for the last few years these guys have no gameplan when they go up to the plate. Good hitters have an approach basically waitng until they get a good pitch to hit. Reds hitters go up to the plate hoping that there hacks will accidently run into a ball at some point. Jacoby needs to go but I don't think any hitting coach is going to break the habits that have been allowed to go on here for the last 3-4 years.

Scrap Irony
04-11-2010, 05:53 PM
Those players have the last three years slash stats that they did and do for real reasons.

Not to mention the three year splits.

Most of these guys were not very good with OBP to begin with.

Teams like that are suppose to have trouble scoring runs.

They normally don't do "huge" ;) increases or improvements.

I can't help but to remember the projections and predictions and comments.

If it were the guys who've historically struggled, I'd argue that you're right. However, once again, you're not drawing the right conclusions from the limited data that's available.

Jay Bruce won't hit this badly all year. His at-'ems and caught line drives have limited his numbers thus far to putridity and cost this team quite a few runs already. It's impossible for a guy to continue to do this over the course of an entire season.

Brandon Phillips has a track record over his career (and the three-year split) of being much more productive than he has thus far. He's a good bet to get much better.

Joey Votto has struggled. His major league numbers suggest he will produce much better than he has after a week of real games.

If these guys, two of which have very good histories of patience and swinging at strikes, begin to produce as both their three-year histories and three-year splits say they should, the Reds will be fine.

They first, however, have to stop swinging at pitches they can't hit or can't hit well.

bucksfan2
04-11-2010, 05:55 PM
Bad game offensively today. The fear going into the season was the Reds only had two hitters that would work the count and give professional at bats. One was Votto and the other was Rolen. That has proven to be true so far this season. Votto has had a bad stretch of games as well as Stubbs. But the most troubling thing so far this season has been the absolute ineffectiveness of Bruce. This team neads Bruce to produce and so far this season he hasn't.

corkedbat
04-11-2010, 05:59 PM
Double digit strikeouts vs mediocre starting pitching hoping to tire them out in and get to the ineffectual middle of a bullpen is not a winning offensive strategy.

Most teams with a shot at the playoffs have 4 or 5 guys at the top of the order with OBPs north of .350, the Reds have Votto. A playoff team might love to have a glove in center and hitting 7th or 8th, but not leading off. They certainly don't have a hack like Phillips hitting cleanup. It's all we've got though (Jocketty does not seem inclined to deal for bats), we'll have to hope for luck and the best, I guess.

membengal
04-11-2010, 06:08 PM
I want Leake as the batting coach, asap...

Spring~Fields
04-11-2010, 06:09 PM
All true however these guys have been bad even for them to this point.

They do appear to be performing and producing under their numbers.

Well we all have our theories on that.

Strange how a group can go bad at once and play under their previous history, all at the same time, unless they might be receiving some poor instructions and are attempting to comply with those instructions.

I know you know all this. Because it has been covered over and over, even you have contributed to pointing out so much before the team or season even starts.

We have seen that and this before with the past Reds teams, and these very similiar characteristics even though names and faces changed, through the past two years.

I know though that there was no significant increases in performances or production numbers coming in through the changing of the names and faces that did change or that stayed.

Basically what they do is spend about the same money, and get about the same production or performance numbers, I don't pay attention to the names. They are their numbers to me. When we look to see what the Reds are really going to be during the off season.

They are going to have some good games where we are really pleased.

The outfield, Rolen, Cabrera and Phillips did not have the numbers to support our hope, faith, belief, and excitement before the season started.

Spring~Fields
04-11-2010, 06:13 PM
I want Leake as the batting coach, asap...

:thumbup:

:clap::clap::clap:

Spring~Fields
04-11-2010, 06:16 PM
Bad game offensively today. The fear going into the season was the Reds only had two hitters that would work the count and give professional at bats. One was Votto and the other was Rolen. That has proven to be true so far this season. Votto has had a bad stretch of games as well as Stubbs. But the most troubling thing so far this season has been the absolute ineffectiveness of Bruce. This team neads Bruce to produce and so far this season he hasn't.


Double digit strikeouts vs mediocre starting pitching hoping to tire them out in and get to the ineffectual middle of a bullpen is not a winning offensive strategy.

Most teams with a shot at the playoffs have 4 or 5 guys at the top of the order with OBPs north of .350, the Reds have Votto. A playoff team might love to have a glove in center and hitting 7th or 8th, but not leading off. They certainly don't have a hack like Phillips hitting cleanup. It's all we've got though (Jocketty does not seem inclined to deal for bats), we'll have to hope for luck and the best, I guess.

I think that you each are right.

But what is the solution for this team, accepting that they have the player resources that they have, and of course will have to try to do they best they can with them, respectfully. What is the solution?

Spring~Fields
04-11-2010, 06:22 PM
If it were the guys who've historically struggled, I'd argue that you're right. However, once again, you're not drawing the right conclusions from the limited data that's available.



I am not drawing the conclusions that you want me too. I saw that when you caustically argued that I did not know how to use the numbers to do simple projections.

Now you're stuck and I am not going to let you off from what you wrote back to me in the off season. "huge". If you had not been so caustic I would have never paid any attention to any of it.

If you misinterpreted the experts, and bought into it, that was your choice and decision.

It is way too early to say that these Reds are anything for sure. We will have to wait until the end of the season. But, Sir, I do expect either you or I to come back at the end of the season and to have the courage and integrity, to tell one or the other that we were wrong and that the other was right, if that occurs. :)
Especially after your strongly worded comments.

TheNext44
04-11-2010, 06:38 PM
Six games. Pretty much meaningless numbers.

A few line drives don't get caught, or Votto's not swinging like he's sick, and the offense looks pretty good.

Just to put things into perspective, last year, after six games the Reds were averaging 4.5 runs a game and on June 3, the Reds were averaging 4.57 runs a game. The offense looked pretty good. We all know how that turned out.

This game goes in ebbs and flows. Six games isn't even a blip on the radar yet.

corkedbat
04-11-2010, 06:56 PM
I think that you each are right.

But what is the solution for this team, accepting that they have the player resources that they have, and of course will have to try to do they best they can with them, respectfully. What is the solution?

This team's manfement continues toy demonstrate it does not value getting on base, so I don't know that there are any easy answers, but I'd be dong something. It would have been a risk,but I would have tried to land a hitter for the top of the lineup with a histroy of strong OPS like Damon.

I'd get the SS out of the 2-hole (or get a SS worthy of the two hole. I'd find a hitting coach (Hal McCrae?) that would teach/demand solid ABs. I'd switch spots with Dickerson and Stubbs if in the lineup together. I'd move BP out of the cleanup spot. I'd reward a hitter who works the pitcher with more at bats and the hacking masses who see 1-12 pitches a game would be relegated to the bottom.

The 1st thing I'd do is fire Dusty though and replace him with Rick Sweet until the end of the year and see if he couldn't get better result.

If I'm Walt to, I make at least two solid hitters a burnng desire. Having two pitchers liek Harang and Arroyo in the rotation, knowing that I can't afford to return both next year, is a luxary I can't afford. Harang should have been gone over the offseason, There are other surplusses too. Maloney, a reliever or two, two or three monor league bats. In the next couple of months, some teams are going to be falling by the way side (hopefully not the Reds). Walt has to be readyto liberate a bat or two.

corkedbat
04-11-2010, 07:00 PM
Six games. Pretty much meaningless numbers.

A few line drives don't get caught, or Votto's not swinging like he's sick, and the offense looks pretty good.

Just to put things into perspective, last year, after six games the Reds were averaging 4.5 runs a game and on June 3, the Reds were averaging 4.57 runs a game. The offense looked pretty good. We all know how that turned out.

This game goes in ebbs and flows. Six games isn't even a blip on the radar yet.

If it were only six games, you might be right, but this team didn't hit all of ST and weren't world-beaters last season that WJ should've stood pat on over the offseason either.

Marc D
04-11-2010, 07:02 PM
Six games. Pretty much meaningless numbers.

A few line drives don't get caught, or Votto's not swinging like he's sick, and the offense looks pretty good.

Just to put things into perspective, last year, after six games the Reds were averaging 4.5 runs a game and on June 3, the Reds were averaging 4.57 runs a game. The offense looked pretty good. We all know how that turned out.

This game goes in ebbs and flows. Six games isn't even a blip on the radar yet.


I agree the RPG (or any other stats) are pretty meaningless at this point. I disagree strongly with the implication that the horrific team wide lack of plate discipline or any semblance of OBP skills will just somehow fix its self with a little more luck.

Dusty's been in charge for a few years now. Is it that unreasonable to think his philosophy of run creation has become the teams approach to hitting? I know its been turned into a lengthy running joke but the man did spew the base clogging comments. No one had to make that stuff up.

If the on field manager places zero importance on OBP what are the players supposed to do? Especially the young ones or the ones who were OBP adverse themselves to start with? If the guy who controls playing time tells you to get up there and swing, you are going up there swinging.

Scrap Irony
04-11-2010, 07:18 PM
I am not drawing the conclusions that you want me too. I saw that when you caustically argued that I did not know how to use the numbers to do simple projections.

Now you're stuck and I am not going to let you off from what you wrote back to me in the off season. "huge". If you had not been so caustic I would have never paid any attention to any of it.

If you misinterpreted the experts, and bought into it, that was your choice and decision.

It is way too early to say that these Reds are anything for sure. We will have to wait until the end of the season. But, Sir, I do expect either you or I to come back at the end of the season and to have the courage and integrity, to tell one or the other that we were wrong and that the other was right, if that occurs. :)
Especially after your strongly worded comments.

If I'm caustic, it's because I've explained the same thing to you at least five different times. I'm not stuck. I simply explained, before the projections came out, that this Red offense should be around league average or a bit better if healthy.

I gave numbers that were similar to the projections and you simply chose to ignore those projections because they didn't agree with your questionable methods of projection. (For example, in your method, no prospect would ever project for better numbers before he improved, which is ridiculous both on the micro- and macro- level. Improvement in the second and third year of a baseball career is a very common occurence across not just today's game, but also in the history of the game. That's when most player numbers jump.) I called you on these methods; you ignored that.

One thing you wrote is true-- one of us will be wrong by the end of the year. You have insisted this year's team is going to be horrid offensively. Near the end of the NL bad. (Of course, you also insisted Cueto should go to the minors off Spring Training numbers, and again forgot that players might improve as they age. So at least there's consistency in your blind side.)

red-in-la
04-11-2010, 07:19 PM
When there are so many players at one time playing under even their performance and productions numbers. Do you feel that since there are so many at one time, that it might be the instructions that they are receiving, that might be having an influence on their approach at the plate?

Several of the names and faces have changed, though their numbers from the past are closely similiar to those that were replaced, but, even with the faces and names changing, we have seen this similiarity and characteristics of a Reds team for the past couple years. I think.

DEAD ON.....you said it all.

Brook Jacoby wasn't a super hitter when he played......why does he have to hang around year upon year?

HokieRed
04-11-2010, 07:23 PM
Rosales today: 2 for 3, HR, 4 rbi. Played 2nd. Just the facts.

flyer85
04-11-2010, 07:32 PM
no surprise as most every player has a track record as a hacker. Guess what? Hackers hack!! I'm :shocked:

westofyou
04-11-2010, 07:38 PM
Small sample against the some of the best pitchers in the division. Meanwhile the Brewers who aren't challenged as offensively as the Reds are are doing the same thing, tanking, except they are tanking slugging while the Reds are tanking on getting on base.

Good sign though when Hernandez walks in the go ahead run, he could have hacked at it like everyone else on the team.

reds44
04-11-2010, 07:41 PM
The offense is bad, but it isn't THIS bad.

OPS:
Votto .711
Phillips .588
Cabrera .575
Gomes .545
Bruce .153

All of them will be much higher by the end of the season, and outside of Hernandez nobody is really hitting above their head at this point. The fact that the Reds played that bad on offense, and still went 3-3 is a good sign.

This team needs help on offense, there is no doubt. If we are in it during the summer, we'll be in play for a bat in LF, however the offense isn't THIS bad.

Falls City Beer
04-11-2010, 07:44 PM
Small sample against the some of the best pitchers in the division. Meanwhile the Brewers who aren't challenged as offensively as the Reds are are doing the same thing, tanking, except they are tanking slugging while the Reds are tanking on getting on base.

Good sign though when Hernandez walks in the go ahead run, he could have hacked at it like everyone else on the team.

Yep. Bruce, Votto, Gomes, Phillips, Dickerson performing well below expected numbers. Only Rolen and Hernandez are performing at or above expectations. The great news is that the starting pitching really has been good so far. Not a house of cards.

Will M
04-11-2010, 07:48 PM
Rosales today: 2 for 3, HR, 4 rbi. Played 2nd. Just the facts.

I was one who thought Rosales still had a chance to be a solid supersub. we basically sold him to the As for $1.3 so we could sign Cabrera. if Rosales turns into a good major league player the blame is on Bob Castellini.

heck, if the team gets good pitching all year yet struggles to win despite a good offense then the blame is on Bob Castellini. we all knew the team needed more help yet he tightened the purse strings.

flyer85
04-11-2010, 07:51 PM
the reds problem is not just a lack of results (they aren't this bad), it is about approach (and that isn't going to change).

Brutus
04-11-2010, 08:03 PM
The approach is definitely a concern. Too many swings early in the count, especially against non-hitter's pitches (i.e. low breaking balls). That's something that's going to have to improve.

However, the team, in terms of results, has been a bit unlucky thus far. As a team, the Reds have a .260 BABIP. If you add 40 points to that, you're looking at quite a few hits sprinkled in this past week and, presumably, several more runs. I don't believe it's as bleak as everyone is making it out to be since some guys are not performing like we know they will - but the approach definitely needs to improve.

mth123
04-11-2010, 08:13 PM
I don't think approach is something that improves much. I don't believe changing the hitting coach will have much impact. I think the team needs a different mix of players to fix this. I still think 700 runs is the right neighborhood for this team. 650 if it wasn't for GABP. If Bruce has a ho-hum season in say the .775 to .825 OPS range, it might be 650 anyway.

Ron Madden
04-11-2010, 08:15 PM
the reds problem is not just a lack of results (they aren't this bad), it is about approach (and that isn't going to change).

This is exactly what I'm afraid of.

johngalt
04-11-2010, 08:30 PM
Just from the "watching" standpoint, have you ever seen guys (Votto and Phillips in particular) falling to one knee after their swings? Regardless of stats, that's what troubles me because they just look awful. Too aggressive and absolutely no balance at the plate.

I noticed today that even times when Phillips took pitches, he would fall forward across the plate to the other batter's box. They're leaning that way rather than pushing their momentum forward toward the pitcher. Completely out of control.

traderumor
04-11-2010, 08:31 PM
Just from the "watching" standpoint, have you ever seen guys (Votto and Phillips in particular) falling to one knee after their swings? Regardless of stats, that's what troubles me because they just look awful. Too aggressive and absolutely no balance at the plate.

I noticed today that even times when Phillips took pitches, he would fall forward across the plate to the other batter's box. They're leaning that way rather than pushing their momentum forward toward the pitcher. Completely out of control.That is Phillips. It is what it is.

Ron Madden
04-11-2010, 08:33 PM
Just from the "watching" standpoint, have you ever seen guys (Votto and Phillips in particular) falling to one knee after their swings? Regardless of stats, that's what troubles me because they just look awful. Too aggressive and absolutely no balance at the plate.

I noticed today that even times when Phillips took pitches, he would fall forward across the plate to the other batter's box. They're leaning that way rather than pushing their momentum forward toward the pitcher. Completely out of control.

I saw Phillips swing so hard he fell to one knee, a number of times last year.

johngalt
04-11-2010, 08:34 PM
I saw Phillips swing so hard he fell to one knee, a number of times last year.

I saw it some last year too, but I've seen it more than a few times from Votto already this year as well along with a couple of other guys.

flyer85
04-11-2010, 08:35 PM
The approach is definitely a concern. Too many swings early in the count, especially against non-hitter's pitches (i.e. low breaking balls). That's something that's going to have to improve.for the most part that is who they are ... and is unlikely to change. If you want it to improve you need to get different players.

Pointed out this offseason that the Reds is a team chock full of 6-7-8 hitters.

BCubb2003
04-11-2010, 08:40 PM
At times like these I've always wondered how to measure the effectiveness of a hitting or pitching coach. Can you filter out the talent base and ingrained habits to determine what a coach brings to the team? I always kind of figured that we expected too much from the pitching coaches. Reds pitching coaches were expected to create something out of nothing, while most pitching coaches' job descriptions are "see that the good young arms don't screw themselves up." Now we have a pitching coach who looks like a genius. I think Brook Jacoby needs to be challenged on the poor hitting approach in a way that Brantley and Thom seem unwilling to do, but to what extent?

Hoosier Red
04-11-2010, 08:47 PM
There's something good and bad about Votto's struggles the last few games. I have a feeling that because he knows he's the leader, he feels like he has to be THE guy when the team is struggling. That's not a bad trait, I want my guys thinking like that and taking that level of personal responsibility. However, it's evident in trying to be THE guy, he's pressing and swinging at pitches he shouldn't swing at.

Phillips goes through this as well. Although I think his is more ego driven than personal responsibility.

I admit this may be me trying to read into something that's not there.

Spring~Fields
04-11-2010, 09:00 PM
If I'm caustic, it's because I've explained the same thing to you at least five different times. I'm not stuck. I simply explained, before the projections came out, that this Red offense should be around league average or a bit better if healthy.


I get a kick out of you. :)

I can't believe that you would get so upset and mad just because I don't agree with you, even though you are so confident that you are right.

So we don't agree, so what? How many times do you think that we and other's are wrong about this team and game anyway?

I was reading your and my post back through the years the other day, do you know how wrong both of us have been on those prediction or projection type post? I had to just smile and laugh with us, not at us. :lol:

So you're going to be wrong again about this year's team, you'll get over it. :evil:

Brutus
04-11-2010, 09:03 PM
for the most part that is who they are ... and is unlikely to change. If you want it to improve you need to get different players.

Pointed out this offseason that the Reds is a team chock full of 6-7-8 hitters.

Well, Stubbs and Votto are not those kind of players. The last few days, Votto has been uncharacteristically swinging from his heels.

Some of them, I'll grant you, have been notorious chuckers (Gomes, Bruce thus far, etc.). However, half the lineup has been seeing fewer pitches than normal for them.

Here are there P/PA numbers thus far:

Cabrera (3.52 career, 3.10 this season)
Rolen (3.97 career, 3.38 this season)
Gomes (3.91 career, 3.70 this season)
Bruce (3.84 career, 3.47 this season)

Dickerson & Stubbs, and surprisingly Phillips have been over their averages. Votto had a good series in St. Louis, but not so much against Chicago. As you can see with the other four guys, though, collectively they're averaging nearly a half a pitch per time at the plate below their career.

It's not as bad as people are making it out to be - or at least, assuming these guys do what they usually do - it shouldn't be this bad.

Ron Madden
04-11-2010, 09:12 PM
Well, Stubbs and Votto are not those kind of players. The last few days, Votto has been uncharacteristically swinging from his heels.

Some of them, I'll grant you, have been notorious chuckers (Gomes, Bruce thus far, etc.). However, half the lineup has been seeing fewer pitches than normal for them.

Here are there P/PA numbers thus far:

Cabrera (3.52 career, 3.10 this season)
Rolen (3.97 career, 3.38 this season)
Gomes (3.91 career, 3.70 this season)
Bruce (3.84 career, 3.47 this season)

Dickerson & Stubbs, and surprisingly Phillips have been over their averages. Votto had a good series in St. Louis, but not so much against Chicago. As you can see with the other four guys, though, collectively they're averaging nearly a half a pitch per time at the plate below their career.

It's not as bad as people are making it out to be - or at least, assuming these guys do what they usually do - it shouldn't be this bad.

What worries me is even if these guys play to the numbers on the back of their baseball cards, the club will have trouble scoring runs.

flyer85
04-11-2010, 09:15 PM
pitches per plate plate can be a product of hacking and fouling off a lot of pitches. Walk totals will tell you who is patient and who is not. Reds don't have a high BB rate player on the entire team. Guys like Rolen and Votto are generally more patient and aren't constantly get themselves out swinging at pitchers pitches but outside of those two it is a crapshoot.

as an FYI, Rolens BB rate has dropped considerably since his power dried up.

Marc D
04-11-2010, 09:22 PM
These discussions always remind me of the Dusty Baker hitting decision tree someone made. Helps me to laugh and keeps me from crying.

http://i224.photobucket.com/albums/dd122/jaxbuck/web%20stuff/dustybakerut4_medium.jpg

HokieRed
04-11-2010, 09:25 PM
Something needs to change and, since it's unlikely we're going to get a whole new raft of players, it would be good to see some incremental moves that suggest somebody in the dugout is at least paying attention. 2 proposals: 1. If Dickerson and Stubbs are to be in the lineup together, let's get them in the first 2 spots with Cabrera down at 7th or preferably 8th; and 2. Get Phillips out of the 4 spot against right-handers--anybody would be better.

Orenda
04-11-2010, 09:27 PM
At times like these I've always wondered how to measure the effectiveness of a hitting or pitching coach. Can you filter out the talent base and ingrained habits to determine what a coach brings to the team? I always kind of figured that we expected too much from the pitching coaches. Reds pitching coaches were expected to create something out of nothing, while most pitching coaches' job descriptions are "see that the good young arms don't screw themselves up." Now we have a pitching coach who looks like a genius. I think Brook Jacoby needs to be challenged on the poor hitting approach in a way that Brantley and Thom seem unwilling to do, but to what extent?

I would like to see reporters question Jacoby on hitting approach. We hear from Dusty from time to time but Jacoby flies under the radar.

In Jacoby's defense, what do you really expect him to do with guys like Juan Francisco, Laynce Nix, and Orlando Cabrera, who already had large samples of data displaying what kind of hitters they were going to be?

The fact that Juan Francisco was chosen to break camp with the Reds is amazing in that it reflects how little the Reds decision makers (Jacoby, Jocketty, Baker, and whoever else) seem to value plate discipline.

In fact, Juan Francisco's whole minor league career suggests he has been over-promoted, he has never improved significantly at all in the one area that screamed for improvement, yet has continued to be advanced by the organization...

Ron Madden
04-11-2010, 09:29 PM
As long as Dusty Baker and Brandon Phillips are on the same team Phillips is gonna hit cleanup.

Will M
04-11-2010, 09:30 PM
There's something good and bad about Votto's struggles the last few games. I have a feeling that because he knows he's the leader, he feels like he has to be THE guy when the team is struggling. That's not a bad trait, I want my guys thinking like that and taking that level of personal responsibility. However, it's evident in trying to be THE guy, he's pressing and swinging at pitches he shouldn't swing at.

Phillips goes through this as well. Although I think his is more ego driven than personal responsibility.

I admit this may be me trying to read into something that's not there.

i tend to agree here. Joey has looked pained at the plate recently. just look at his face when he is up at the plate. hopefully one of the guys behind him gets hot and he feels a bit less pressure

Brutus
04-11-2010, 09:31 PM
pitches per plate plate can be a product of hacking and fouling off a lot of pitches. Walk totals will tell you who is patient and who is not. Reds don't have a high BB rate player on the entire team. Guys like Rolen and Votto are generally more patient and aren't constantly get themselves out swinging at pitchers pitches but outside of those two it is a crapshoot.

as an FYI, Rolens BB rate has dropped considerably since his power dried up.

It can be, that doesn't mean it is.

But since when is fouling off pitches a bad thing? The point is to make a pitcher work. The more pitches you see the more the pitcher works - fouling pitches off is still making them work. That's not a bad thing.

Yeah it's true this team won't have a ton of walks. But it's never a bad thing to "foul off" a lot of pitches. That's still a good at-bat even if it doesn't result in a walk.

Patience can be overrated. Drawing walks, mind you, is not but patience can be. You're up there with a bat in your hands for a reason. It's stupid to go up there and let pitches pass by if you watch a good hitter's pitch go down the tubes for a strike. Where this team is struggling is not that they're swinging early, but that in some cases they're swinging at bad pitches early in the count. Selectivity, not patience, is the real issue.

Sea Ray
04-11-2010, 09:36 PM
As Brantley and Thom continue to say in the booth for the last few years these guys have no gameplan when they go up to the plate. Good hitters have an approach basically waitng until they get a good pitch to hit. Reds hitters go up to the plate hoping that there hacks will accidently run into a ball at some point. Jacoby needs to go but I don't think any hitting coach is going to break the habits that have been allowed to go on here for the last 3-4 years.


This problem of hacking has been going on a long time. I can recall the same issues when Bob Boone was managing them. I don't know why they can't get them ironed out. I really don't.

Spring~Fields
04-11-2010, 09:37 PM
This team's manfement continues toy demonstrate it does not value getting on base, so I don't know that there are any easy answers, but I'd be dong something. It would have been a risk,but I would have tried to land a hitter for the top of the lineup with a histroy of strong OPS like Damon.

I'd get the SS out of the 2-hole (or get a SS worthy of the two hole. I'd find a hitting coach (Hal McCrae?) that would teach/demand solid ABs. I'd switch spots with Dickerson and Stubbs if in the lineup together. I'd move BP out of the cleanup spot. I'd reward a hitter who works the pitcher with more at bats and the hacking masses who see 1-12 pitches a game would be relegated to the bottom.

The 1st thing I'd do is fire Dusty though and replace him with Rick Sweet until the end of the year and see if he couldn't get better result.

If I'm Walt to, I make at least two solid hitters a burnng desire. Having two pitchers liek Harang and Arroyo in the rotation, knowing that I can't afford to return both next year, is a luxary I can't afford. Harang should have been gone over the offseason, There are other surplusses too. Maloney, a reliever or two, two or three monor league bats. In the next couple of months, some teams are going to be falling by the way side (hopefully not the Reds). Walt has to be readyto liberate a bat or two.

I see your points. I donít see why Mr. Jocketty and his staff canít speak with the field people and implement some of those suggestions without terminating his manager. Maybe he doesnít think those would make a difference, I donít know. He did say that they liked this team. His resources player and money should be in a better position after this year or next.

Long range, I think that Mr. Jocketty probably has some kind of five year type plan for building this team up. What I mean by that is, that over time I think that he will be working on what you have spoken to here, and what many on the board have suggested and would like to see in some form be accomplished by Reds management. They have made progress working within the parameters and constraints that they were confronted with.

But to be a fan, it is a long and boring wait and frustrating. Especially on a message board filled with management, legal and finances personalities who analysis management decisions to begin with.

To watch them try to win now, but at the same time try to rebuild or go young, whatever they are doing, while we get to endure the game to game for years now. Years, it is not like we are just a bit stressed from waiting a bit longer than we want too in some grocery lines, years with a sports team, not minutes.

Sea Ray
04-11-2010, 09:39 PM
Patience can be overrated. Drawing walks, mind you, is not but patience can be. You're up there with a bat in your hands for a reason. It's stupid to go up there and let pitches pass by if you watch a good hitter's pitch go down the tubes for a strike. Where this team is struggling is not that they're swinging early, but that in some cases they're swinging at bad pitches early in the count. Selectivity, not patience, is the real issue.

Agreed. Patience isn't letting heart of the plate fastballs go by in order to work the pitcher. Patience is fouling off or taking pitches until you get one that you can drive. Case in point was Jonny Gomes in the 8th tonight. He took two balls and then he went to hacking on a FB down the middle and drove it to deep RF. In that situation you don't want him taking that pitch

Will M
04-11-2010, 09:45 PM
Something needs to change and, since it's unlikely we're going to get a whole new raft of players, it would be good to see some incremental moves that suggest somebody in the dugout is at least paying attention. 2 proposals: 1. If Dickerson and Stubbs are to be in the lineup together, let's get them in the first 2 spots with Cabrera down at 7th or preferably 8th; and 2. Get Phillips out of the 4 spot against right-handers--anybody would be better.

sounds way too pragmatic :D

Based on the guys we have right now here is what I feel is the best lineup.
VS RHP:
CF Stubbs
LF Dickerson (L)
1B Votto (L)
3B Rolen
RF Bruce (L)
2B Phillips
C Hernandez/Hanigan
SS Cabrera

VS LHP:
CF Stubbs
C Hernandez
1B Votto (L)
3B Rolen
2B Phillips
LF Gomes
RF Bruce (L)
SS Cabrera

I think that Hernandez would look good in the #2 slot vs LHP. when he is rested he is patient. vs RHP as has been pointed out Dickerson
seems like a good choice.

I actually like Rolen in the #2 spot but we don't have a thumper to hit behind Votto. Rolen seems like our best bet there. plus his splits aren't extreme.

Until Phillips hits RHP better & Bruce hits LHP better they need to be dropped in the order when facing them.

I think Cabrera and his career OPS+ of 90 belongs in the 7th or 8th spot.

Spring~Fields
04-11-2010, 09:49 PM
I don't think approach is something that improves much. I don't believe changing the hitting coach will have much impact. I think the team needs a different mix of players to fix this. I still think 700 runs is the right neighborhood for this team. 650 if it wasn't for GABP. If Bruce has a ho-hum season in say the .775 to .825 OPS range, it might be 650 anyway.

I know that you have strongly tried to tell each of us this all winter long, and into the spring, you're right.

For some reason though this organization seems to go out and get just about the same type of players, and then applies their skills and talents in a manner that doesn't seem to accomplish quite what we think it might be capable of. Those replacements that you and other's speak of have to have some history of higher production and performance numbers, where as this organization replaces names and faces that have just about the same numbers. How they think that will be an improvement is beyond me.

I don't even think that they are cognizent of the right handed splits that you and other's speak of, or the on base percentages. Because they don't appear to ever address those issues.

That outfield mix was almost DOA on arrival if you wanted offense, with the exception of hope they will this or hope they will that.

Falls City Beer
04-11-2010, 09:51 PM
There's only one truly stacked offense in the NL Central: the Brewers. Even the Cards have a ton of weak lumber in their lineup.

reds44
04-11-2010, 09:52 PM
Day in and day out Stubbs, Dickerson, Rolen, and Votto are going to give you your best ABs. I'd have them bat at the top of the lineup. I woulnd't mess with Stubbs in the leadoff spot, so I'd go

vR:
1. Stubbs CF
2. Dickerson LF
3. Rolen 3B
4. Votto 1B
5. Bruce RF
6. Phillips 2B
7. Hernandez C
8. Cabrera SS

vL:
1. Stubbs CF
2. Phillips 2B
3. Rolen 3B
4. Votto 1B
5. Gomes LF
6. Hernandez C
7. Bruce RF
8. Cabrera SS

Hitting Rolen 3rd isn't ideal, but I feel as if he'll at least give you good ABs. All of this doesn't really matter because Cabrera is going to continue to bat 2nd.

Will M
04-11-2010, 09:53 PM
Agreed. Patience isn't letting heart of the plate fastballs go by in order to work the pitcher. Patience is fouling off or taking pitches until you get one that you can drive. Case in point was Jonny Gomes in the 8th tonight. He took two balls and then he went to hacking on a FB down the middle and drove it to deep RF. In that situation you don't want him taking that pitch

i agree with you. for a hitter with power he looks for his pitch in a favorable count. say its 2-0 to Gomes. he says "i'm looking for a fastball as long as its not at the knees on the outside corner. if its in my hitting zone i'm going to crush it". you don't take a fastball down broadway on a 2-0 or 3-1 count. you crush it! even early in the count you can do this. lets say a pitcher just walked the bases loaded. you go to the plate saying 'on the first pitch if its down broadway i'm swinging. anywhere else i'll take the pitch'.

successfull hitting is about:
- swinging at pitches you can hit hard
- taking pitches outside the strikezone
- early in the count taking pitches that are strikes if they are in a spot you can't hit well (the classic at the knees on the outside corner)
- the really good hitters can foul off those 'pitchers pitches'. then when the pitcher lets one out over the plate crush it

Spring~Fields
04-11-2010, 09:55 PM
The approach is definitely a concern. Too many swings early in the count, especially against non-hitter's pitches (i.e. low breaking balls). That's something that's going to have to improve.

However, the team, in terms of results, has been a bit unlucky thus far. As a team, the Reds have a .260 BABIP. If you add 40 points to that, you're looking at quite a few hits sprinkled in this past week and, presumably, several more runs. I don't believe it's as bleak as everyone is making it out to be since some guys are not performing like we know they will - but the approach definitely needs to improve.

What confuses me is, that when I looked up some of the players today on Fangraphs, I saw several individual players having a low BABIP, or bad luck. How does that happen? Jay Bruce doesn't surprise me, but so many of the other's having a similiar problem does.

Spring~Fields
04-11-2010, 09:58 PM
At times like these I've always wondered how to measure the effectiveness of a hitting or pitching coach. Can you filter out the talent base and ingrained habits to determine what a coach brings to the team? I always kind of figured that we expected too much from the pitching coaches. Reds pitching coaches were expected to create something out of nothing, while most pitching coaches' job descriptions are "see that the good young arms don't screw themselves up." Now we have a pitching coach who looks like a genius. I think Brook Jacoby needs to be challenged on the poor hitting approach in a way that Brantley and Thom seem unwilling to do, but to what extent?

What if Jacoby is just following his bosses instructions?

Mario-Rijo
04-11-2010, 10:02 PM
This problem of hacking has been going on a long time. I can recall the same issues when Bob Boone was managing them. I don't know why they can't get them ironed out. I really don't.

Cause the league is more than half full of hackers. The ideal guy (guys like Votto) is few and far between, not to mention pricey. The best one can do is tell a guy like BP that he HAS to reign it in a bit and until he just does consistently that you are gonna be in his ear to do it. I don't care if the guy does fight it and still is out there falling all over the plate he has to show some restraint.

Brutus
04-11-2010, 10:02 PM
What confuses me is, that when I looked up some of the players today on Fangraphs, I saw several individual players having a low BABIP, or bad luck. How does that happen? Jay Bruce doesn't surprise me, but so many of the other's having a similiar problem does.

Still a small sample, so you would expect some fluctuations in luck. With only 135 balls in play approximately, there's still a lot of subjectivity to fortune. Most teams will end up between .290 and .310 by the end of the season so it's right to expect many of these balls to start finding green soon enough.

Spring~Fields
04-11-2010, 10:03 PM
What worries me is even if these guys play to the numbers on the back of their baseball cards, the club will have trouble scoring runs.

They are going to.

They are showing signs of what yourself and other's were concerned about from the start of the off season and throughout leading up to now.

I know that we are all saying something now because we don't want to see that turn out to be true by seasons end.

Mario-Rijo
04-11-2010, 10:04 PM
What confuses me is, that when I looked up some of the players today on Fangraphs, I saw several individual players having a low BABIP, or bad luck. How does that happen? Jay Bruce doesn't surprise me, but so many of the other's having a similiar problem does.

When you are swinging at pitchers pitches you'll always have a lower BABIP than you should. At least that is my thinking on it.

Mario-Rijo
04-11-2010, 10:08 PM
There's only one truly stacked offense in the NL Central: the Brewers. Even the Cards have a ton of weak lumber in their lineup.

Match them up bat for bat and I think you'll find that statement to be backwards.

Spring~Fields
04-11-2010, 10:10 PM
The fact that Juan Francisco was chosen to break camp with the Reds is amazing in that it reflects how little the Reds decision makers (Jacoby, Jocketty, Baker, and whoever else) seem to value plate discipline.



Yes, and some other's and their ability to get on base. You said a whole lot there.

Spring~Fields
04-11-2010, 10:14 PM
Still a small sample, so you would expect some fluctuations in luck. With only 135 balls in play approximately, there's still a lot of subjectivity to fortune. Most teams will end up between .290 and .310 by the end of the season so it's right to expect many of these balls to start finding green soon enough.

Thanks BTP, that helps out my understanding.

Marc D
04-11-2010, 10:18 PM
What confuses me is, that when I looked up some of the players today on Fangraphs, I saw several individual players having a low BABIP, or bad luck. How does that happen? Jay Bruce doesn't surprise me, but so many of the other's having a similiar problem does.


3rd highest GB% as a team in MLB, average LD% and unsustainably lucky 15.8 HR/FB%. Also the highest first strike % in the NL.

To me that's stats telling us what our eyes are seeing:They are pounding bad pitches into the dirt, resulting in easy ground balls which makes them look BABIP unlucky if you use that stat in isolation.

They are also getting their monies worth from the fly balls they are hitting but thats not going to last. The first pitch strike percentage goes without saying, they are coming up there hacking like no other team in the NL so far this young season.

pedro
04-11-2010, 10:18 PM
I have a hard time seeing how firing Dusty and replacing him with Rick Sweet is going to improve the offense. I think the risk of making such a move far outways any potential benefit. Belive it or not managers do more than just fill out the lineup card.

Phhhl
04-11-2010, 10:23 PM
The thing that disturbs me most right now is Joey Votto. He looks extremely anxious at the plate, and is swinging over top of pitches that are out of the strike zone. Word spreads fast, so teams might continue to peck at the corners if he doesn't show more patience. He has only walked twice. I sincerely hope someone is not trying to get him to be more aggressive, or change his approach in any way. I could see him being more aggressive against the Cardinals' staff, but the Cubs hardly rolled out the '94 Braves rotation on this homestand. The offense is kind of predicated on the concept that Votto is an elite hitter sitting squarely in the middle of the order, and if he is not performing at that level scoring runs is damn near impossible right now. With praise comes great responsibility.

TheNext44
04-11-2010, 10:24 PM
Cause the league is more than half full of hackers. The ideal guy (guys like Votto) is few and far between, not to mention pricey.

And the Red Sox and Yankees grab up as many of them as they can.

westofyou
04-11-2010, 10:26 PM
Rick Sweet eh?

I've heard that tune before... Dave Miley anyone?

TheNext44
04-11-2010, 10:30 PM
Rick Sweet eh?

I've heard that tune before... Dave Miley anyone?

Dave Miley might have been a great major league manager. We'll never know. He was too busy following O'Brien's plan and never managed the way he wanted to. I would love to see him get another chance in the majors.

Spring~Fields
04-11-2010, 10:32 PM
3rd highest GB% as a team in MLB, average LD% and unsustainably lucky 15.8 HR/FB%. Also the highest first strike % in the NL.
To me that's stats telling us what our eyes are seeing:They are pounding bad pitches into the dirt, resulting in easy ground balls which makes them look BABIP unlucky if you use that stat in isolation.

They are also getting their monies worth from the fly balls they are hitting but thats not going to last. The first pitch strike percentage goes without saying, they are coming up there hacking like no other team in the NL so far this young season.

Excellent, great post and information.

You just gave me a lot to think about. Thanks.

pedro
04-11-2010, 10:33 PM
Dave Miley might have been a great major league manager. We'll never know. He was too busy following O'Brien's plan and never managed the way he wanted to. I would love to see him get another chance in the majors.

I wasn't impressed.

He was like a deer in the headlights.

Spring~Fields
04-11-2010, 10:33 PM
I have a hard time seeing how firing Dusty and replacing him with Rick Sweet is going to improve the offense. I think the risk of making such a move far outways any potential benefit. Belive it or not managers do more than just fill out the lineup card.

I don't think that he needs to be fired either. Maybe fired up but not fired.

Plus there is always worse options that can happen.

Why can't they just adapt and make some changes that are within their power to do? When it becomes possible?

westofyou
04-11-2010, 10:38 PM
Dave Miley might have been a great major league manager. We'll never know. He was too busy following O'Brien's plan and never managed the way he wanted to. I would love to see him get another chance in the majors.

Dave Miley never was the leader in his own clubhouse, he was wreck, he was Don Hefner, Vern Rapp, Less Moss, he was out of his element.

WVRedsFan
04-11-2010, 10:39 PM
I wasn't impressed.

He was like a deer in the headlights.

Yep. He would never make it long term and he knows it.

Regardless, I don't think the day-to-day management would improve hitting unless you want to discuss that Bruce pinch hitting appearance today--talk about putting a player in a position to fail...

TheNext44
04-11-2010, 10:44 PM
Dave Miley never was the leader in his own clubhouse, he was wreck, he was Don Hefner, Vern Rapp, Less Moss, he was out of his element.

That's because his GM came out in the press and said that Miley was not his first choice. He was in an impossible situation to be a leader. Granted, he handled it poorly, but that was because he was just trying to hold on to his job.

That is why I would like to see him get another chance. We have no idea if he could be good if left to run the team on his own. He could still be bad, but I'd like to see him fail on his own accord.

Brutus
04-11-2010, 10:45 PM
3rd highest GB% as a team in MLB, average LD% and unsustainably lucky 15.8 HR/FB%. Also the highest first strike % in the NL.

To me that's stats telling us what our eyes are seeing:They are pounding bad pitches into the dirt, resulting in easy ground balls which makes them look BABIP unlucky if you use that stat in isolation.

They are also getting their monies worth from the fly balls they are hitting but thats not going to last. The first pitch strike percentage goes without saying, they are coming up there hacking like no other team in the NL so far this young season.

It's way too early to really read anything into those numbers.

First, you realize that the "unsustainable" HR/FB ratio would mean regression to average would have only made a difference in approximately 1-2 homers at this point. That's not sustainability, that's just pure random chance. It's too early to really learn anything whatsoever from that stat - since we're talking about fewer than 50 flyballs.

Second, despite the GB & LD ratios, the Reds are still more than 30-40 points below what their team xBABIP would be right now. Because of the same issue (sample) I mention above, that's only about 5 fewer hits than what they'd be expected to have.

There have been less than 140 balls in play. If this were ONE player, we'd still be talking about sample size for another 1-2 months with these small number of plate appearances. Accordingly, it's about 1-2 weeks too early to really make any sweeping conclusions about what is going on.

Does this team need to be more selective at the plate? Yes. Does it need to get on base more? Yes. But the batted ball stats are still not large enough in sample to really make the kind of judgments you're making.

TheNext44
04-11-2010, 10:45 PM
Dave Miley never was the leader in his own clubhouse, he was wreck, he was Don Hefner, Vern Rapp, Less Moss, he was out of his element.

And no one was as bad as Vern Rapp, and no one ever will be. He was in a class all by himself. (although he did teach me that when in doubt... slide.)

Caveat Emperor
04-11-2010, 10:47 PM
I never thought I'd see posts defending Dave Miley as a manager. His tenure as the skipper of the Reds was the very definition of the word "forgettable" -- and that's even with the generous bump he got for being "Not Bob Boone."

TheNext44
04-11-2010, 10:49 PM
Back to the thread topic...

Drawing conclusions from the Reds stats to date this season is like drawing conclusions from Leake's first start after the first three hitters, or Harang's last start after the first inning.

TheNext44
04-11-2010, 10:52 PM
I never thought I'd see posts defending Dave Miley as a manager. His tenure as the skipper of the Reds was the very definition of the word "forgettable" -- and that's even with the generous bump he got for being "Not Bob Boone."

I wouldn't say I'm defending him, but just saying he got a bum rap. We don't know if he's any good, because he never got a chance to manage.

Ron Madden
04-11-2010, 10:53 PM
I never thought I'd see posts defending Dave Miley as a manager. His tenure as the skipper of the Reds was the very definition of the word "forgettable" -- and that's even with the generous bump he got for being "Not Bob Boone."


That's true but he had absolutely no pitching to work with either.

Spring~Fields
04-11-2010, 10:53 PM
Back to the thread topic...

Drawing conclusions from the Reds stats to date this season is like drawing conclusions from Leake's first start after the first three hitters, or Harang's last start after the first inning.

Why isn't what we think we see, just another extension of what we have seen in the past and that the numbers at the end of a given season or two might have supported?

I know they are performing below even the norms for them or the area or ranges that they have produced in the past, but, too, isn’t it true that we are seeing an extension or a preview of what is to come, which really won’t be a surprise to most of us who look at them in a conservative fashion vs the more liberal and optimistic fan. ????

I don't think that you or too many of us had this offense setting any records before the season even started, so why would any of this be a surprise now? Early or not?

Ron Madden
04-11-2010, 10:55 PM
Back to the thread topic...

Drawing conclusions from the Reds stats to date this season is like drawing conclusions from Leake's first start after the first three hitters, or Harang's last start after the first inning.

The problem with that is this is almost the same offense we saw in 2009.

KronoRed
04-11-2010, 10:56 PM
Rick Sweet eh?

I've heard that tune before... Dave Miley anyone?

Anyone ever find those chairs?

Spring~Fields
04-11-2010, 11:00 PM
Anyone ever find those chairs?

:lol::lol::lol:

I should have to pay you. :)

Scrap Irony
04-11-2010, 11:04 PM
The problem with that is this is almost the same offense we saw in 2009.

Yep.

Well, except for Rolen in place of offensive black holes, EdE and Rosales.
And Cabrera in lieu of offensive black holes AGon and Janish.
And Stubbs in place of, yep, offensive black hole Taveras.

Spring~Fields
04-11-2010, 11:09 PM
The problem with that is this is almost the same offense we saw in 2009.

That is what I argue, but I don’t know how quite to say it. When I see the names and faces change somewhat, I look to see if the numbers attached to those names and faces have change upward or downward, or if the current cast that stays with the club has real evidence that they can be counted on for a fact in improvements.

What I saw regardless of the names, faces etc was just about the same numbers for the new faces as the old ones that were replaced, then I saw nothing that said, proof, player x, y or z that stayed young or old was going to be significantly better in 2010 than they had been in the previous years, and we are still waiting to see that improvement that has not manifested itself.

So it comes out that this team is just like the other teams, and they try to have them do the same things, that the other talent level could not do either.

So I thought and think that you are right that this team number wise, which it would follow performance and talent wise is like or similar to the past team in under performers as compared to the primary competitors in the division. I hope that I am dead wrong.

Sure someone can point out a change here or there, and point that out, but overall this team is just about the same production and performance number wise as the last two. If that is true, then it would follow that they are about the same talent wise.

Ron Madden
04-11-2010, 11:11 PM
Yep.

Well, except for Rolen in place of offensive black holes, EdE and Rosales.
And Cabrera in lieu of offensive black holes AGon and Janish.
And Stubbs in place of, yep, offensive black hole Taveras.

I knew that was coming, I still don't see them scoring enough runs to make a difference.

Ron Madden
04-11-2010, 11:14 PM
That is what I argue, but I donít know how quite to say it. When I see the names and faces change somewhat, I look to see if the numbers attached to those names and faces have change upward or downward, or if the current cast that stays with the club has real evidence that they can be counted on for a fact in improvements.

What I saw regardless of the names, faces etc was just about the same numbers for the new faces as the old ones that were replaced, then I saw nothing that said, proof, player x, y or z that stayed young or old was going to be significantly better in 2010 than they had been in the previous years, and we are still waiting to see that improvement that has not manifested itself.

So it comes out that this team is just like the other teams, and they try to have them do the same things, that the other talent level could not do either.

So I thought and think that you are right that this team number wise, which it would follow performance and talent wise is like or similar to the past team in under performers as compared to the primary competitors in the division. I hope that I am dead wrong.
Sure someone can point out a change here or there, and point that out, but overall this team is just about the same production and performance number wise as the last two. If that is true, then it would follow that they are about the same talent wise.


I hope I'm wrong too.

Marc D
04-11-2010, 11:32 PM
It's way too early to really read anything into those numbers.

First, you realize that the "unsustainable" HR/FB ratio would mean regression to average would have only made a difference in approximately 1-2 homers at this point. That's not sustainability, that's just pure random chance. It's too early to really learn anything whatsoever from that stat - since we're talking about fewer than 50 flyballs.

Second, despite the GB & LD ratios, the Reds are still more than 30-40 points below what their team xBABIP would be right now. Because of the same issue (sample) I mention above, that's only about 5 fewer hits than what they'd be expected to have.

There have been less than 140 balls in play. If this were ONE player, we'd still be talking about sample size for another 1-2 months with these small number of plate appearances. Accordingly, it's about 1-2 weeks too early to really make any sweeping conclusions about what is going on.

Does this team need to be more selective at the plate? Yes. Does it need to get on base more? Yes. But the batted ball stats are still not large enough in sample to really make the kind of judgments you're making.


He was asking why the BABIP looked unlucky so I used a few other batted ball stats to illustrate why it could look that way. They are swinging at more first pitches than almost anyone and hitting more ground balls than almost anyone.

We aren't submitting work for scholarly review here, its simple baseball statistics. I'm perfectly comfortable making inferences from a sample that doesn't qualify as statistically significant given the subject matter. The numbers to date are backing up exactly what your eyes are telling you when you watch.

As far as making those inferences, all you have to do is have a rough knowledge of what is bad, good and average. A 50+% GB ratio is high, a 17% LD rate is about average and a near 16% HR/FB rate is so high you know there is no way they can keep it up.

Brutus
04-11-2010, 11:57 PM
He was asking why the BABIP looked unlucky so I used a few other batted ball stats to illustrate why it could look that way. They are swinging at more first pitches than almost anyone and hitting more ground balls than almost anyone.

We aren't submitting work for scholarly review here, its simple baseball statistics. I'm perfectly comfortable making inferences from a sample that doesn't qualify as statistically significant given the subject matter. The numbers to date are backing up exactly what your eyes are telling you when you watch.

As far as making those inferences, all you have to do is have a rough knowledge of what is bad, good and average. A 50+% GB ratio is high, a 17% LD rate is about average and a near 16% HR/FB rate is so high you know there is no way they can keep it up.

But when your sample is so small where literally 1 homer can take you from a 16% to an "average" HR/FB ratio, you know the stat is completely meaningless at this point in the season.

Average LD%, by the way, is usually closer to 18 or 19%, but that's nitpicking.

You are perfectly free to make inferences at your leisure. But that doesn't mean you're correct making any sort of sound conclusion. Regardless of what our eyes may or may not be telling us, we're about 3-4 weeks from coming anywhere near a statistical sample that backs up the so-called inferences you're drawing from one week's worth of data.

RedsManRick
04-12-2010, 12:33 AM
Just thought I'd point out that Adam Rosales went 2-3, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 RBI today. So glad we gave him away for nothing.

reds44
04-12-2010, 12:36 AM
Just thought I'd point out that Adam Rosales went 2-3, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 RBI today. So glad we gave him away for nothing.
Hey Taveras had 4 RBIs yesterday too, lets bring him back while we're at it.

Ron Madden
04-12-2010, 12:38 AM
Hey Taveras had 4 RBIs yesterday too, lets bring him back while we're at it.

No Thank You.

RedsManRick
04-12-2010, 12:38 AM
Hey Taveras had 4 RBIs yesterday too, lets bring him back while we're at it.

I'd take Taveras over Miguel Cairo. At least he can run.

fearofpopvol1
04-12-2010, 12:49 AM
I'd take Taveras over Miguel Cairo. At least he can run.

Problem is, the temptation for Dusty to use him in the OF or in PH situations would not have been desirable.

I would much rather have Rosales than Cairo or Sutton. Heck, I bet Rosales could have played SS better than Cabrera can now.

TheNext44
04-12-2010, 01:03 AM
I'd take Taveras over Miguel Cairo. At least he can run.

Cairo is a league average defender at all infield positions. That makes him a replacement level player, which is what nearly all utility guys are. There is no way Taveras ever becomes as good as replacement level player.

Marc D
04-12-2010, 01:27 AM
But when your sample is so small where literally 1 homer can take you from a 16% to an "average" HR/FB ratio, you know the stat is completely meaningless at this point in the season.

Yes and that's why I simply said that rate is so high it isn't sustainable. We have years of data that tells us this.



Average LD%, by the way, is usually closer to 18 or 19%, but that's nitpicking. Probably why I used the word "about".


You are perfectly free to make inferences at your leisure. But that doesn't mean you're correct making any sort of sound conclusion. Regardless of what our eyes may or may not be telling us, we're about 3-4 weeks from coming anywhere near a statistical sample that backs up the so-called inferences you're drawing from one week's worth of data.

If my conclusions had any impact on anything important I would worry about their soundness in terms of statistical significance. Since we are talking about baseball and not splitting the atom, they don't so I don't.

If you need to wait 3-4 weeks to say with 95% certainty that the Reds offense is hitting a lot of ground balls then to each his own.

WVRedsFan
04-12-2010, 01:39 AM
No Thank You.

A big old plus one for you. But this is the history of this franchise. Lots of players who are two inches from DFA. And we continue to pick these scoudrels and just hope they work out. The list is long - Patterson, Taveras, Hairston, Nix, Freel--you know them all. It gets old real fast.

GAC
04-12-2010, 04:34 AM
They need to stop swinging at balls.

Well you have to swing at the ball sooner or later if you want to get a hit silly.


[sorry Scrappy - couldn't resist] :p:

But I pretty much agree with the above assertions by everyone. Yeah, we have some hackers on this team, which doesn't help matters. I don't think you're going to change that either. They are what they are.

But you've also got a few key guys that have started the season slowly. Bruce has started in a horrible slump. I'm starting to doubt the kid's ability to hit LHers even though it is very early.

Votto has a total of 6 hits in 6 games with 1 RBI. Rolen has 4 hits and 1 RBI. Phillips is hitting .174. These are players that will pick it up at some point.

But having said that... we scored 673 Runs last season. And I don't see us cresting 700 this year.

We seem to be heading in one direction with the pitching, and in the other with the offense. And I don't know how good/bad our pitching will be; but you still can't put that kind of pressure on a staff.

traderumor
04-12-2010, 07:44 AM
Just thought I'd point out that Adam Rosales went 2-3, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 RBI today. So glad we gave him away for nothing.Yea, he had one or two games like that out of the 87 he got in last year. We actually received $1.3M for a non-impact player like Rosales if you look at the deal he was involved in. He isn't even starting. Adam Rosales certainly wasn't going to be a difference maker in this offense or be part of a deal to obtain one. Fodder is likely to get fodder in return.

I'm really surprised at a comment like that coming from you. You usually look at things with a little more depth than that.

Roy Tucker
04-12-2010, 07:53 AM
This thread shows about as much patience as the Reds do at the plate.

edabbs44
04-12-2010, 09:00 AM
This thread shows about as much patience as the Reds do at the plate.

My thoughts exactly.

westofyou
04-12-2010, 09:02 AM
My thoughts exactly.

Yep, lots of hacking too.

Chip R
04-12-2010, 09:13 AM
I thought it was somewhat telling that the Reds had their most success this weekend against Zambrano. Silva and Gorzellany threw up crap and the Reds couldn't do a thing with it. Z comes in there throwing smoke and the Reds looked better against him than the other two.

Falls City Beer
04-12-2010, 09:23 AM
Match them up bat for bat and I think you'll find that statement to be backwards.

I like the Brewers offense more. Ryan, Schumaker, Freese, and even Molina and Ludwick are pretty unexciting bats. And they're due a ton of PA this season. I don't think that's going to stop them from contending or winning the division, as I generally believe an offense is disproportionately its top two or three hitters (quality at the top matters more than some depth of middling talent); still I think the Brewers will score more runs this season if they stay healthy.

Brewers pitching is obviously quite a bit worse than the Cards'.

Falls City Beer
04-12-2010, 09:24 AM
I thought it was somewhat telling that the Reds had their most success this weekend against Zambrano. Silva and Gorzellany threw up crap and the Reds couldn't do a thing with it. Z comes in there throwing smoke and the Reds looked better against him than the other two.

Off speed crap over or near the dish = death to the Reds. It's been that way for decades.

westofyou
04-12-2010, 09:29 AM
Off speed crap over or near the dish = death to the Reds. It's been that way for decades.

LH's have owned the Reds for the last decade too, plus the power on the RH side is way less impressive than the LH side so when a LH takes it to them it looks even worse than it should.

nate
04-12-2010, 10:11 AM
Like the thread about the bullpen, I'm not going to work myself into a lather about the offense just yet. As said upthread and by noted philosopher, Dennis Green, the Reds are who we thought they were. The offense simply isn't good at creating runs.

Folks, you could take any segment of any player's PAs so far this year, look through their careers and find analogs. Sure, it might "seem" logical to blame Brook Jacoby (not my personal favorite; I prefer Cham) but sometimes, bad stretches sync up and most of the time, there isn't a "thing" to blame other than randomness.

Really, it's too early to say "OMG DFA/FIRE/ERECT STATUE __________" yet.

As a manger (with all my vast experience playing baseball video games), I wouldn't be looking to make any changes after week 1 of the baseball season. Heck, I wouldn't even do it after week 1 of a football season.

But if you wish to roll thusly, so be it.

Ltlabner
04-12-2010, 10:33 AM
As my main man Nate said we're seeing what some of us already thought the Reds would be: not particularly good at the plate (Those with perpetual optimism notwithstanding).

They simply aren't going to be a great offensive team. Some weeks they'll show some signs of life and appear to be "starting to pull it together". Other weeks they'll hack and wack their way into looking like a trainwreck.

Ultimately a kneejerk reaction like firing a hitting instructor won't change a thing. This is the team that Walt built. Unless he infuses it with different talent there isn't going to be any material difference made by rearranging the deck chairs.

Sea Ray
04-12-2010, 10:35 AM
Really, it's too early to say "OMG DFA/FIRE/ERECT STATUE __________" yet.

As a manger (with all my vast experience playing baseball video games), I wouldn't be looking to make any changes after week 1 of the baseball season. Heck, I wouldn't even do it after week 1 of a football season.

But if you wish to roll thusly, so be it.


I wanted Jacoby fired before the season ever started. With guys like him who have been around here awhile it's not a question of it being early

Spring~Fields
04-12-2010, 10:38 AM
Really, it's too early to say "OMG DFA/FIRE/ERECT STATUE __________" yet.

As a manger (with all my vast experience playing baseball video games), I wouldn't be looking to make any changes after week 1 of the baseball season. Heck, I wouldn't even do it after week 1 of a football season.

But if you wish to roll thusly, so be it.

I don’t think that we will have much to do about the Cincinnati Reds organization, they tend to make their own choices and decisions regarding their business, and are paid very well for it, better than many.

As we are pretty much relegated to a form of common interlopers on the outside looking in, perhaps from some fantasy world within ourselves, somehow cajoling ourselves into thinking that what we have to think or to say about the Reds somehow matters when it comes to the Reds and their business, when in reality, we know that it doesn’t, because it is their business, and not ours. ;)

SirFelixCat
04-12-2010, 10:41 AM
The approach is definitely a concern. Too many swings early in the count, especially against non-hitter's pitches (i.e. low breaking balls). That's something that's going to have to improve.

However, the team, in terms of results, has been a bit unlucky thus far. As a team, the Reds have a .260 BABIP. If you add 40 points to that, you're looking at quite a few hits sprinkled in this past week and, presumably, several more runs. I don't believe it's as bleak as everyone is making it out to be since some guys are not performing like we know they will - but the approach definitely needs to improve.

This is precisely how I feel. Just like Cabrera's range, it's something to be very concerned about and I'm not sure it's going to improve.

nate
04-12-2010, 10:44 AM
I wanted Jacoby fired before the season ever started. With guys like him who have been around here awhile it's not a question of it being early

Like I said, he's not my favorite as the approaches of the hitters during his tenure have been less effective. Of course, that could also be due to having less effective hitters. In fact, I'd say it's 98% the latter and 2% the former.

Spring~Fields
04-12-2010, 10:51 AM
I wanted Jacoby fired before the season ever started. With guys like him who have been around here awhile it's not a question of it being early

Why would you fire him when he has a boss that knows hitting and wrote the or a book on hitting? Jacoby is probably just doing what his boss is telling him, and if he isn’t, surely his boss can get him corrected, if he isn’t doing what his boss wants and is telling him to do.

Maybe the players just aren't good enough to make Jacoby and his boss look good. Unfortunately that would contradict that their boss, the GM had done a good job, if his players aren't good enough.

bucksfan2
04-12-2010, 11:13 AM
Just thought I'd point out that Adam Rosales went 2-3, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 RBI today. So glad we gave him away for nothing.

Just thought I would point out that on Sat night Willy Taveras went 2-4 4RBI's. Sure glad we traded him for nothing.

OnBaseMachine
04-12-2010, 11:41 AM
Alex Gonzalez is leading the league in home runs with four, while hitting .346/.346/.923 - 1.269 OPS. ;)

In all seriousness, I'd take Gonzalez over Cabrera at this point in their careers. At least Gonzalez is still a halfway decent fielder. Cabrera was the better player in his younger days but his defense has completely fallen off the map.

Sea Ray
04-12-2010, 11:43 AM
Why would you fire him when he has a boss that knows hitting and wrote the or a book on hitting? Jacoby is probably just doing what his boss is telling him, and if he isnít, surely his boss can get him corrected, if he isnít doing what his boss wants and is telling him to do.

Maybe the players just aren't good enough to make Jacoby and his boss look good. Unfortunately that would contradict that their boss, the GM had done a good job, if his players aren't good enough.

That's probably why he hasn't been fired. Dusty must be pleased with him. I disagree with Dusty. Simple as that

Spring~Fields
04-12-2010, 03:45 PM
That's probably why he hasn't been fired. Dusty must be pleased with him. I disagree with Dusty. Simple as that

Pleased with him? I had never thought of that. Jacoby must be good at following instructions then if nothing else, difference making.



2010 Small Sample Ranked by OPS 2010 Small Sample Runs
13 Cincinnati .230 .284 .366 .650 12 Cincinnati 22
14 San Diego .218 .278 .352 .630 13 Washington 22
15 Chicago Cubs .197 .282 .340 .622 14 San Diego 19
16 Houston .222 .244 .304 .548 15 Chicago Cubs 18
National League .253 .326 .411 .736 16 Houston 13
National League 29

2009 Full Season Ranked by OPS 2009 Full Season Runs
13 Cincinnati .247 .318 .394 .712 11 Cincinnati 673
14 Pittsburgh .252 .318 .387 .705 12 NY Mets 671
15 San Diego .242 .321 .381 .701 13 San Francisco657
16 San Francisco.257 .309 .389 .699 14 Houston 643
National League .259 .330 .409 .739 15 San Diego 638
16 Pittsburgh 636
National League 718

2008 Full Season Ranked by OPS 2008 Full Season Runs
12 Cincinnati .247 .321 .408 .729 12 Cincinnati 704
13 Pittsburgh .258 .320 .403 .723 13 LA Dodgers 700
14 San Diego .250 .317 .390 .707 14 Washington 641
15 San Francisco.262 .321 .382 .703 15 San Francisco640
16 Washington .251 .323 .373 .696 16 San Diego 637
National League .260 .331 .413 .744 National League 734

Spring~Fields
04-12-2010, 05:09 PM
Yep.

Well, except for Rolen in place of offensive black holes, EdE and Rosales.
And Cabrera in lieu of offensive black holes AGon and Janish.
And Stubbs in place of, yep, offensive black hole Taveras.



Substantial Offensive Black Hole Upgrade Check

Three Year Splits
Scott Rolen
vs. Left .280 .381 .437 .818
vs. Right .279 .340 .427 .767

Edwin Encarncion
vs. Left .281 .382 .465 .847
vs. Right .252 .325 .434 .759

Cabrera
vs. Left .282 .348 .404 .752
vs. Right .291 .326 .379 .705

Alex Gonzalez
vs. Left .224 .282 .319 .601
vs. Right .267 .310 .446 .756

Taveras
vs. Left .280 .324 .335 .659
vs. Right .264 .312 .312 .624

Stubbs
vs. Left .286 .333 .500 .833
vs. Right .261 .320 .420 .740

Dickerson
vs. Left .259 .362 .345 .707
vs. Right .288 .387 .458 .845

Bruce
vs. Left .198 .285 .312 .597
vs. Right .259 .320 .528 .848

Nix
vs. Left .139 .184 .222 .406
vs. Right .236 .287 .471 .758

Gomes
vs. Left .267 .341 .503 .844
vs. Right .224 .307 .456 .763

Miguel Cairo
vs. Left .258 .333 .351 .684
vs. Right .249 .294 .332 .626

Paul Janish
vs. Left .257 .328 .314 .642
vs. Right .182 .273 .281 .554

Mario-Rijo
04-12-2010, 05:27 PM
Alex Gonzalez is leading the league in home runs with four, while hitting .346/.346/.923 - 1.269 OPS. ;)

In all seriousness, I'd take Gonzalez over Cabrera at this point in their careers. At least Gonzalez is still a halfway decent fielder. Cabrera was the better player in his younger days but his defense has completely fallen off the map.

Not me, at the end of this season Cabrera will look much better offensively and although his defense isn't up to Gonzo's level it is still not as bad as people want to make it out to be. Overall I bet Cabrera is easily the better player when factoring everything in. And that is even with me being disappointed in his lack of patience to this point.

Kc61
04-12-2010, 05:52 PM
Not me, at the end of this season Cabrera will look much better offensively and although his defense isn't up to Gonzo's level it is still not as bad as people want to make it out to be. Overall I bet Cabrera is easily the better player when factoring everything in. And that is even with me being disappointed in his lack of patience to this point.

I agree. And Stubbs will prove to be a big upgrade as well.

Let's face it. The team lacks middle of the order fire. They didn't spend on offense this winter. Add Holliday or Bay to the Reds. Or a less expensive guy like Vlad Guerrero. You upgrade the offense significantly.

The Reds will go as far as the pitching and defense take them. The offense should be a little better than last year. That's the team. I hope it pans out.

Scrap Irony
04-12-2010, 08:09 PM
Substantial Offensive Black Hole Upgrade Check

Three Year Splits
Scott Rolen
vs. Left .280 .381 .437 .818
vs. Right .279 .340 .427 .767

Edwin Encarncion
vs. Left .281 .382 .465 .847
vs. Right .252 .325 .434 .759

Cabrera
vs. Left .282 .348 .404 .752
vs. Right .291 .326 .379 .705

Alex Gonzalez
vs. Left .224 .282 .319 .601
vs. Right .267 .310 .446 .756

Taveras
vs. Left .280 .324 .335 .659
vs. Right .264 .312 .312 .624

Stubbs
vs. Left .286 .333 .500 .833
vs. Right .261 .320 .420 .740

Dickerson
vs. Left .259 .362 .345 .707
vs. Right .288 .387 .458 .845

Bruce
vs. Left .198 .285 .312 .597
vs. Right .259 .320 .528 .848

Nix
vs. Left .139 .184 .222 .406
vs. Right .236 .287 .471 .758

Gomes
vs. Left .267 .341 .503 .844
vs. Right .224 .307 .456 .763

Miguel Cairo
vs. Left .258 .333 .351 .684
vs. Right .249 .294 .332 .626

Paul Janish
vs. Left .257 .328 .314 .642
vs. Right .182 .273 .281 .554


Last season wRAA (Runs Above Average):
Reds' SS: -27.9
Cabrera Three-Year Split: -6.3
Difference: +21.6

Reds' 3B: -16.7
Rolen's Three-Year Split: 4.9
Difference: +21.6

Reds' CF: -20.4
Stubbs' (2009): 1.0
Difference: +21.4

TOTAL: +64.6

OnBaseMachine
04-12-2010, 10:25 PM
I missed most of the game tonight but twice I saw the Reds have runners on first and third with one out and both times they failed to score. That's Cincinnati Reds baseball for ya. It's amazing how many times this team fails to score in that situation. Failing to score even one run there probably cost the Reds game one against the Marlins.

KronoRed
04-12-2010, 10:57 PM
Failing to score even one run there probably cost the Reds game one against the Marlins.

Be positive :D

OnBaseMachine
04-12-2010, 10:58 PM
Am I the only one who thinks Scott Rolen should bat 4th? He's a much better option to hit cleanup than Phillips, IMO. He'll give you a nice atbat most of the time and gets on base more than Phillips. Oh, and nice to see Jay Bruce break out tonight with a double, single, and a walk.

Now, can we please start getting that run in from 3rd? :)

KronoRed
04-12-2010, 11:00 PM
I'm baffled why Rolen is not batting clean up, it seems like a perfectly Baker thing to do.

Mario-Rijo
04-12-2010, 11:00 PM
Am I the only one who thinks Scott Rolen should bat 4th? He's a much better option to hit cleanup than Phillips, IMO. He'll give you a nice atbat most of the time and gets on base more than Phillips. Oh, and nice to see Jay Bruce break out tonight with a double, single, and a walk.

Now, can we please start getting that run in from 3rd? :)

No question and I'll go one further Bruce should be behind Rolen then they can put BP in there.

VR
04-12-2010, 11:10 PM
I'm baffled why Rolen is not batting clean up, it seems like a perfectly Baker thing to do.

Would he have been able to bunt Votto over like our cleanup hitter did tonight?:)

reds44
04-12-2010, 11:11 PM
Maybe it's just because we actually scored runs, but it seemed like we had a much better approach at the plate tonight. We were putting together good ABs for the most part.

Like I said, OC/Phillips/Bruce/Votto are hitting way below their norms right now. Our offense isn't as bad as it showed in the first six games.

11larkin11
04-12-2010, 11:11 PM
No question and I'll go one further Bruce should be behind Rolen then they can put BP in there.

Bruce should be 2.

Stubbs
Bruce
Votto
Rolen
Phillips
Gomes
Hernandez
Cabrera

Although I am a Cabrera fan, I think it would help the team more with Bruce there. In other words, its more I think Bruce would be better there, than that Cabrera is bad there.

KronoRed
04-12-2010, 11:14 PM
Would he have been able to bunt Votto over like our cleanup hitter did tonight?:)

Probably, or he doubles and we don't waste an out ;)

KronoRed
04-12-2010, 11:15 PM
Bruce should be 2.

Stubbs
Bruce
Votto
Rolen
Phillips
Gomes
Hernandez
Cabrera

Although I am a Cabrera fan, I think it would help the team more with Bruce there. In other words, its more I think Bruce would be better there, than that Cabrera is bad there.

Your lineup has 2 lefties in a row, hence it will melt late in games :D

OnBaseMachine
04-12-2010, 11:25 PM
I'll just post this in here.

From Ed Price of AOl Fanhouse:

#Reds starters have a 3.59 ERA -- and 0-1 record. Six straight NDs. Team is 4-0 in games decided in final at-bat.

http://twitter.com/ed_price

westofyou
04-12-2010, 11:27 PM
Would he have been able to bunt Votto over like our cleanup hitter did tonight?:)

Did you like that?

The way Chris was bragging on that made me think how it was a great honor for the Reds to have a clean up hitter whom uses the bunt as a weapon, not once, but twice in the same game... HOLY Tris Speaker the praise was akin to someone being proud of their deviated septum because it makes a pretty whistling sound whilst they slept.

Just humorous to me.

REDblooded
04-12-2010, 11:29 PM
Bruce should be 2.

Stubbs
Bruce
Votto
Rolen
Phillips
Gomes
Hernandez
Cabrera

Although I am a Cabrera fan, I think it would help the team more with Bruce there. In other words, its more I think Bruce would be better there, than that Cabrera is bad there.

Wow... This is the line-up I was going to post... And with Votto having virtually no lefty/righty split, it works...

VR
04-12-2010, 11:36 PM
I'll just post this in here.

From Ed Price of AOl Fanhouse:

#Reds starters have a 3.59 ERA -- and 0-1 record. Six straight NDs. Team is 4-0 in games decided in final at-bat.

http://twitter.com/ed_price

If the season ended tonight, the Reds would be in the playoffs. Do you think they can pull off another 86 or so wins in their final at bat?
I like the wins....but at some point the Reds need to become a team that has a killer instinct and can put teams away early and keep them down.

reds44
04-12-2010, 11:37 PM
If the season ended tonight, the Reds would be in the playoffs. Do you think they can pull off another 86 or so wins in their final at bat?
I like the wins....but at some point the Reds need to become a team that has a killer instinct and can put teams away early and keep them down.
They don't hit well enough to do that.

Mario-Rijo
04-12-2010, 11:37 PM
Bruce should be 2.

Stubbs
Bruce
Votto
Rolen
Phillips
Gomes
Hernandez
Cabrera

Although I am a Cabrera fan, I think it would help the team more with Bruce there. In other words, its more I think Bruce would be better there, than that Cabrera is bad there.

Hmm, I can see it helping Jay no doubt about it. But I do think anyone is gonna see more FB's there so in that case I'd go like this.

Stubbs CF
Dickerson LF
Votto 1B
Rolen 3B
Bruce RF
BP 2B
Hernandez C
Cabrera SS

(flipping Stubbs and Dickerson depending on the handedness of the starter)

Or....

Stubbs CF
BP 2B
Votto 1B
Rolen 3B
Bruce RF
Hernandez C
Nix/Gomes LF
Cabrera SS

Screwball
04-12-2010, 11:51 PM
They don't hit well enough to do that.

Yep, the Reds are gonna be in a whole boatload of close contests this year. With a solid bullpen, I'm expecting them to outplay their pythag by a couple wins and challenge for a playoff spot late.

OnBaseMachine
04-13-2010, 12:23 AM
Hal agrees:


Time to move Rolen to clean-up spot?
By Hal McCoy | Monday, April 12, 2010, 10:51 PM

Unsolicited random thoughts after Scott Rolenís 10th inning single gave the Cincinnati Reds a 6-5 victory over the Florida Marlins in the first of a four-game series:

ISNíT IT time to consider moving Scott Rolen into the clean-up spot and dropping Brandon Phillips to fifth?

Phillips isnít a natural; clean-up hitter, not even close, and he is struggling mightily at the plate 5 for 28 so far.


http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/cincinnatireds/entries/2010/04/12/time_to_move_rolen_to_cleanup.html?cxtype=feedbot

kaldaniels
04-13-2010, 12:25 AM
Hal agrees:



http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/cincinnatireds/entries/2010/04/12/time_to_move_rolen_to_cleanup.html?cxtype=feedbot

Off the beaten path but what is Hal's status...I thought he bid us a dieu from the DDN...yet he has a blog and I see his in game chat advertised for FSN.

Will M
04-13-2010, 12:38 AM
i think Rolen would be a ideal #2 hitter IF we had two thumpers. having only one (Votto) I think Rolen is the Reds best bet in the cleanup spot.

why not bat Bruce 5th vs RHP & drop him to 7th vs LHP. reverse for Phillips.
Lineup could be something like:
CF Stubbs
SS Cabrera
1B Votto (L)
3B Rolen
RF Bruce (L) vs RHP // Phillips vs LHP
LF Dickerson (L) platooning with Gomes
2B Phillips vs RHP // Bruce vs LHP
C Hernandez/Hanigan

fearofpopvol1
04-13-2010, 12:54 AM
As painful as this offense is to watch, Scott Rolen is a clear bright spot. The guy is such a pro at the plate (and in the field for that matter). You just rarely see him up there have a bad AB. 2 Home runs and they were at opposing sides of the field. Neither were cheap ones.

Trading away Stewart for Rolen might be one of best trades the Reds made in the last decade.

You know who else gives good ABs too almost every AB? Ramon Hernandez.

REDblooded
04-13-2010, 01:19 AM
You don't have to separate Votto and Bruce... Votto doesn't have a lhp/rhp split...

fugowitribe
04-13-2010, 01:38 AM
We talk about these lineup changes and batting order, and don't get me wrong, I am not a Dusty baker fan by any means, but wasn't tonights win over the Marlins in direct relation with having Phillips in the 4 hole? If we have a guy who can get votto over OR get him in if he is already in position and from time to time knock one out of the park, why not leave it as is and give Rolen even more opportunities to knock in the guy with the best OBP in Joey Votto?

REDblooded
04-13-2010, 02:01 AM
We talk about these lineup changes and batting order, and don't get me wrong, I am not a Dusty baker fan by any means, but wasn't tonights win over the Marlins in direct relation with having Phillips in the 4 hole? If we have a guy who can get votto over OR get him in if he is already in position and from time to time knock one out of the park, why not leave it as is and give Rolen even more opportunities to knock in the guy with the best OBP in Joey Votto?

Are you suggesting that Brandon Phillips as a clean-up hitter managed something in the 10th inning that Aaron Harang couldn't?

Ron Madden
04-13-2010, 02:39 AM
Maybe it's just because we actually scored runs, but it seemed like we had a much better approach at the plate tonight. We were putting together good ABs for the most part.

Like I said, OC/Phillips/Bruce/Votto are hitting way below their norms right now. Our offense isn't as bad as it showed in the first six games.


Maybe not but it is far from where it needs to be.

Ron Madden
04-13-2010, 02:42 AM
Try as I might, I can't recall another game where any teams cleanup hitter has bunted twice in the same game.

Ron Madden
04-13-2010, 02:46 AM
We talk about these lineup changes and batting order, and don't get me wrong, I am not a Dusty baker fan by any means, but wasn't tonights win over the Marlins in direct relation with having Phillips in the 4 hole? If we have a guy who can get votto over OR get him in if he is already in position and from time to time knock one out of the park, why not leave it as is and give Rolen even more opportunities to knock in the guy with the best OBP in Joey Votto?


Because you only have 27 outs, you shouldn't be giving any of them away espeacially from the 4th spot in your batting order.

reds44
04-13-2010, 02:52 AM
Maybe not but it is far from where it needs to be.
The Reds major problem is their LF situation.

Ron Madden
04-13-2010, 02:57 AM
The Reds major problem is their LF situation.

That may very well be true, (IMHO) It still boils down to the lack of skills that add up to scoring runs.

KronoRed
04-13-2010, 03:03 AM
The Reds major problem is their LF situation.

The entire OF right now is a bucket of blah.

reds44
04-13-2010, 03:17 AM
The entire OF right now is a bucket of blah.
At least Stubbs and Bruce have the potential to be something, LF is going to bad no matter what.

Will M
04-13-2010, 03:32 AM
At least Stubbs and Bruce have the potential to be something, LF is going to bad no matter what.

Gomes & Dickerson aren't bad, they just aren't good. both are perfectly fine as bench players & spot starters. however, if the Reds want to compete they will have to do better than Gomes/Dickerson in LF. especially considering they aren't that great at the other 7 offensive positions.

GAC
04-13-2010, 05:00 AM
Well... we had 11 hits, and scored six runs last night. Rolen had 3 of those hits (2 Hrs), Cabrera added his 2nd Hr of the season..... and Jay had two hits!!

We've started out the season playing 3 teams that weren't exactly shabby last year in the Cards, Cubs, and Marlins. A team that won the division, and two 2nd place finishers. All we above .500 teams.

And even with our slow offensive start we're 4-3. This team is going to hit better IMO. How much better I don't know. but It's only the second week of the season for crying out loud. Really hard to make very sound projections at this point.

I'm more concerned about Cueto, after watching his first two starts, and seeing this kid hit the 100 pitch mark by the 5th inning. He threw 110 pitches thru 5 innings last night.

Masset is starting to look good though.

Baker not worried about lack of offense

But if there was any concern about hitting, it hadn't reached the confines of manager Dusty Baker's office.

"Worry doesn't do any good," Baker said on Monday afternoon. "That's what you all don't understand. You just have to work through it. There are guys struggling all over for whatever reason that you don't know. We gave our guys plenty of at-bats, we thought, [in Spring Training] to try and alleviate this. Sometimes there's no explanation. Some guys aren't seeing the ball well. Some guys are hitting the ball well and not getting hits. Some guys that were hitting in spring are still hitting. Some guys that weren't hitting in spring are still not hitting."

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100412&content_id=9254420&notebook_id=9254578&vkey=notebook_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

I have to agree with Baker here. ;)

cincrazy
04-13-2010, 07:28 AM
I think this offense will go through spurts where it's productive, but that it will also go through spurts where it's horrible, which will ultimately doom them this season. Outside of Votto and Rolen, I can't find another consistent hitter in the bunch. Phillips, Gomes, Stubbs, they're all streaky hitters, given to hot streaks, and horrible slumps where they make an out on the first pitch seemingly every at bat.

nate
04-13-2010, 08:55 AM
vs. RHP

1. Dickerson
2. Rolen
3. Votto
4. Bruce
5. Cabrera
6. Stubbs
7. Phillips
8. Hernanigan

vs. LHP

1. Stubbs
2. Rolen
3. Votto
4. Gomes
5. Phillips
6. Cabrera
7. Bruce
8. Hernanigan

Sea Ray
04-13-2010, 10:10 AM
Gomes & Dickerson aren't bad, they just aren't good. both are perfectly fine as bench players & spot starters. however, if the Reds want to compete they will have to do better than Gomes/Dickerson in LF. especially considering they aren't that great at the other 7 offensive positions.

I agree. Think it's worth a phone call to Jermaine Dye?

edabbs44
04-13-2010, 10:12 AM
I agree. Think it's worth a phone call to Jermaine Dye?

Nope.

Sea Ray
04-13-2010, 10:13 AM
Rearranging the lineup will do precious little IMO. A real fix lies in getting a cleanup hitter who plays in LF

Tom Servo
04-13-2010, 10:31 AM
I believe the one of the best courses of action would be to give Dickerson regular playing time at the top of the order against righties.

flyer85
04-13-2010, 10:36 AM
reds scored some because they hit three HRs. With the lack of OBP this team is going to be dependent on power to score runs (unfortunately they don't have a lot of power).

Brutus
04-13-2010, 10:38 AM
reds scored some because they hit three HRs. With the lack of OBP this team is going to be dependent on power to score runs (unfortunately they don't have a lot of power).

They're above average in power (potentially) at 1B, 2B, CF & RF and could at least hold serve at LF when Gomes is in there and 3B.

I'm not seeing a lack of power, quite honestly.

Are they lacking consistent ability to get on base? I'll grant anyone that. But even if they have an average walk rate before it's all said and done, the offense will be an average or slightly above average as a unit.

edabbs44
04-13-2010, 10:41 AM
You'd think this team was playing like Houston.

flyer85
04-13-2010, 10:42 AM
I'm not seeing a lack of power, quite honestly.

through 7 games the Reds are 15th out of 16 in OBP, 12th in SLG and 15 in OPS. The stats show a lack of ability to get on base and hit for power.

flyer85
04-13-2010, 10:44 AM
You'd think this team was playing like Houston.
amazing stat, they Stros have drawn a grand total of 6 BBs in 7 games. Reds are 15th and they have 18 BBs (which still is woeful).

edabbs44
04-13-2010, 10:49 AM
through 7 games the Reds are 15th out of 16 in OBP, 12th in SLG and 15 in OPS. The stats show a lack of ability to get on base and hit for power.

It's been one week of games. Looking deeper:

Rolen - 1.127 OPS. Definitely will come down.
Ramon - .873. Will come down.
Stubbs - .736. Likely to not get much worse with room for improvement.
Votto - .704. Likely to improve materially.
Cabrera - .648. Likely to not get much worse with a little room for improvement.
Phillips - .575. Likely to improve materially.
Bruce - .374. Likely to improve significantly.
Dickerson / Gomes - .643/.479. Likely to improve significantly.

Looking at this reasonably, shouldn't we expect to see decent improvement from what we have seen to date?

flyer85
04-13-2010, 10:53 AM
The thing that you can't get away from is that getting on base and hitting for power drive run scoring and this team is going to be woeful at getting on base (the biggest component in scoring runs) and hopefully decent at hitting for power (hopefully).

There just isn't a lot of upside potential for scoring runs because they have too many guys that struggle to find their way to first base.

The Reds are going to have to win a lot of tight low scoring affairs to have success.

Sea Ray
04-13-2010, 10:56 AM
I believe the one of the best courses of action would be to give Dickerson regular playing time at the top of the order against righties.

Dickerson's got to help himself get into the starting lineup. ABs like the one last night does not make him worthy of a starting position. He's up in a key situation, runners on 1st and third, one out and a 3-1 count. At that point he proceeds to watch two FBs go by for strikes leading to a DP to end the inning. Horrible AB!

nate
04-13-2010, 11:02 AM
I believe the one of the best courses of action would be to give Dickerson regular playing time at the top of the order against righties.

Yes.

Ron Madden
04-13-2010, 11:08 AM
The thing that you can't get away from is that getting on base and hitting for power drive run scoring and this team is going to be woeful at getting on base (the biggest component in scoring runs) and hopefully decent at hitting for power (hopefully).

There just isn't a lot of upside potential for scoring runs because they have too many guys that struggle to find their way to first base.

The Reds are going to have to win a lot of tight low scoring affairs to have success.


I agree 100% especially with the bolded part.

RedsManRick
04-13-2010, 11:08 AM
through 7 games the Reds are 15th out of 16 in OBP, 12th in SLG and 15 in OPS. The stats show a lack of ability to get on base and hit for power.

Wow; that's crazy. The Astros are hitting .223/.245/.294 as a team.

Flyer makes the salient point. If you can't get on base, you aren't going to score many runs. And this team is going to struggle to get on base. Votto and maybe Rolen are the only plus OBP guys.

Eric_the_Red
04-13-2010, 11:10 AM
Wow; that's crazy. They're hitting .223/.245/.294 as a team.

Just imagine if they still had WT on the team.:eek:

11larkin11
04-13-2010, 11:14 AM
through 7 games the Reds are 15th out of 16 in OBP, 12th in SLG and 15 in OPS. The stats show a lack of ability to get on base and hit for power.

The key to that statement.

HokieRed
04-13-2010, 11:17 AM
A little more positive takeaway from the first 7 games. Rolen looks good and is showing some power, and even though his numbers are woeful, Bruce has been making consistent hard contact. Since I believe Votto will also hit, it looks to me like we are developing a real 3-4-5 trio that will enable us to get Phillips out of the 4 spot, at least against righthanders. I'm encouraged by this development.

RedsManRick
04-13-2010, 11:19 AM
Just imagine if they still had WT on the team.:eek:

Willy is hitting .200/.286/.486. He'd be a solid upgrade for them...

bucksfan2
04-13-2010, 11:22 AM
Dickerson's got to help himself get into the starting lineup. ABs like the one last night does not make him worthy of a starting position. He's up in a key situation, runners on 1st and third, one out and a 3-1 count. At that point he proceeds to watch two FBs go by for strikes leading to a DP to end the inning. Horrible AB!

Dickerson seems to get his fair share of chances early in the season and struggles with them. He may be a slow starter or there may be something else to it. As of right now he hasn't exactly played his way into the lineup when given a chance.

Last year Dickerson had a rough first month or so. And for a guy trying to get more playing time starting slow isn't a way to get that.

osuceltic
04-13-2010, 11:22 AM
I'm not worried about most of these guys because they've hit in the past and will again. It's just a few key guys slumping simultaneously. The lone exception, and the key to the season in my opinion, is Bruce. If he is what he was last season, the Reds don't have a chance. It's ridiculously early to make any declarations, but I don't like what I'm seeing. It still looks like he's guessing too much. Hopefully he's just starting slow. We'll see.

Chip R
04-13-2010, 11:24 AM
Dickerson seems to get his fair share of chances early in the season and struggles with them. He may be a slow starter or there may be something else to it. As of right now he hasn't exactly played his way into the lineup when given a chance.

Last year Dickerson had a rough first month or so. And for a guy trying to get more playing time starting slow isn't a way to get that.


Agreed. I like Dickerson but he certainly hasn't capitialized on the opportunities given him.

Brutus
04-13-2010, 11:34 AM
through 7 games

I stopped reading right here.

Just as people are looking at guys' careers to draw conclusions as their ability to get on base (which is certainly fair), these same players have shown the ability to hit for power at some of the positions we've discussed. Phillips, Votto, Bruce & Gomes most definitely have power. Stubbs has shown the ability to hit for above-average power at his position in the two plus months he's been up in the majors.

Power, despite the extremely limited sample you're drawing from, should not be an issue.

Spring~Fields
04-13-2010, 01:18 PM
Last season wRAA (Runs Above Average):
Reds' SS: -27.9
Cabrera Three-Year Split: -6.3
Difference: +21.6

Reds' 3B: -16.7
Rolen's Three-Year Split: 4.9
Difference: +21.6

Reds' CF: -20.4
Stubbs' (2009): 1.0
Difference: +21.4

TOTAL: +64.6

TOTAL: +64.6 runs more than they did in 2009? Didn't you have something like 74 + over the winter. :)

Anyway the moving target of +64.6, this week. ;) Indicating that this years production numbers will have to exceed the previous rosters of 08/09 production numbers, even though their three year production numbers, aka three year slash stats, might imply that they are not substantially better producers than the previous ones.

64.6, have the Reds scoring 737 runs, a number that is above the National League of 734 runs and National League 718 runs in 2008 and 2009 respectively.

737 / 162 = 4.5493827160493827160493827160494 RPG

Even though the aggregate production numbers for the Reds with their manager and coaches produced or scored 704 runs and 673 runs in 2008, and 2009 respectively. Which was -33 runs below the National League in 2008, and -45 runs below the National League in 2009, respectively.

2010 Actual, Still too early, a RPG 4.0 * 162 projection 648 runs.
2010 737 / 162 = 4.5493827160493827160493827160494 RPG
2009 Actual 673 / 162 = 4.1543209876543209876543209876543 RPG
2008 Actual 704 / 162 = 4.3456790123456790123456790123457

Still early, but the Reds have a RPG 4.0 * 162 for a projection of 648 runs scored. To reach 737 - 28 = 707 / 155 remaining games = 4.5612903225806451612903225806452 RPG


2010 Small Sample Ranked by OPS 2010 Small Sample Runs
13 Cincinnati .230 .284 .366 .650 12 Cincinnati 22
14 San Diego .218 .278 .352 .630 13 Washington 22
15 Chicago Cubs .197 .282 .340 .622 14 San Diego 19
16 Houston .222 .244 .304 .548 15 Chicago Cubs 18
National League .253 .326 .411 .736 16 Houston 13
National League 29

2009 Full Season Ranked by OPS 2009 Full Season Runs
13 Cincinnati .247 .318 .394 .712 11 Cincinnati 673
14 Pittsburgh .252 .318 .387 .705 12 NY Mets 671
15 San Diego .242 .321 .381 .701 13 San Francisco657
16 San Francisco.257 .309 .389 .699 14 Houston 643
National League .259 .330 .409 .739 15 San Diego 638
16 Pittsburgh 636
National League 718

2008 Full Season Ranked by OPS 2008 Full Season Runs
12 Cincinnati .247 .321 .408 .729 12 Cincinnati 704
13 Pittsburgh .258 .320 .403 .723 13 LA Dodgers 700
14 San Diego .250 .317 .390 .707 14 Washington 641
15 San Francisco.262 .321 .382 .703 15 San Francisco640
16 Washington .251 .323 .373 .696 16 San Diego 637
National League .260 .331 .413 .744 National League 734




Substantial Offensive Black Hole Upgrade Check

Three Year Splits
Scott Rolen
vs. Left .280 .381 .437 .818
vs. Right .279 .340 .427 .767

Edwin Encarncion
vs. Left .281 .382 .465 .847
vs. Right .252 .325 .434 .759

Cabrera
vs. Left .282 .348 .404 .752
vs. Right .291 .326 .379 .705

Alex Gonzalez
vs. Left .224 .282 .319 .601
vs. Right .267 .310 .446 .756

Taveras
vs. Left .280 .324 .335 .659
vs. Right .264 .312 .312 .624

Stubbs
vs. Left .286 .333 .500 .833
vs. Right .261 .320 .420 .740

Dickerson
vs. Left .259 .362 .345 .707
vs. Right .288 .387 .458 .845

Bruce
vs. Left .198 .285 .312 .597
vs. Right .259 .320 .528 .848

Nix
vs. Left .139 .184 .222 .406
vs. Right .236 .287 .471 .758

Gomes
vs. Left .267 .341 .503 .844
vs. Right .224 .307 .456 .763

Miguel Cairo
vs. Left .258 .333 .351 .684
vs. Right .249 .294 .332 .626

Paul Janish
vs. Left .257 .328 .314 .642
vs. Right .182 .273 .281 .554



Donít need a doctorate in statistical analysis to know that the Reds are going to have to get it in gear and do something that the previous two production numbers, (rosters) with their manager and coaches, did not do to reach 737

I believe that itís possible for them to reach what you believe, if the manager and his choices and decisions don't hinder the potential increase, that what youíve indicated is possible. Big IF there considering his patterns, that he has been very consistent with.

An awful lot of people have proposed over the winter and continue to propose this very day in the 2010 season, what one might call a work around, to try and to compensate for the manager and his choices and decisions, over the winter through player proposals and lineups etc. Although futile and in vain as he is the one that is and has and will make his choices and decisions not them, even if their very best is right, it will be him, making the decisions that he has. The fans are filling the message boards and air waves of radio stations with, Dusty! Dusty! Dusty!, Baker! Baker! Baker! I wonder why? Are they all banana phone rejects, I think that is doubtful.

If he can get out of the way of himself, this years team could score more than the National League of 08 and 09 according to your work.

:oops:And I never even mention OBP and splits against right handed pitching.

Next hurdle and the one that matters most.
Will this increase in runs scored, 64.6, coming from approximately or about the same production numbers as previous player production numbers in 2008 and 2009, be able to overcome like or similar increases to the runs scored of St. Louis, Chicago, Milwaukee, within their division? Resulting in a better standing and win/loss in the Central division to the point of over taking the primary competition from 08 and 09?

Okay, well it should be interesting to see what the actual runs scored outcomes on the 2010 season are. That will be ďhugeĒ :bowrofl: "huge" to see.

I hope that you don't go all Johnny Cueto or Zambrano on me this time. :evil:

Because the Reds are what they are, it really isn't about what "we" think.

Caveat Emperor
04-13-2010, 01:19 PM
The trouble with the Reds is that they have a lineup full of low-OB guys -- most of them (Gomes, Bruce, Phillips, Hernandez, Cabrera, Nix) are free swingers who make a lot of 1/2 pitch outs. They aren't forcing opposing starters to labor, they aren't stringing together long ABs, and they certainly aren't getting on-base enough to cause some contested or high-stress pitches.

That, more than anything, is the most troubling sign about this offense.

westofyou
04-13-2010, 01:28 PM
50 years of superior offense kept the Reds around more often than not, just worrying about offense for the past decade gave them a dismal 10 season run. The coined has flipped, offnse wil not win hands down, pitching will be nutured more than hitting, offense will take the back seat now since it's so darn expensive and has brought the team noting more than something.

I like the pefect balanced team... but if I had to choose between the 1965 Reds and the 1979 Reds I'd go with the 1979 team every time.

Will M
04-13-2010, 01:43 PM
A real fix lies in getting a cleanup hitter who plays in LF

i agree with this and feel that Walt likely knows this as well. if the team stays close they could swing a deal mid season to help the team. this is the spot that would seem easiest to fix. ie its a lot easier to find a left fielder than say a SS or catcher.

Spring~Fields
04-13-2010, 01:52 PM
Dickerson's got to help himself get into the starting lineup. ABs like the one last night does not make him worthy of a starting position. He's up in a key situation, runners on 1st and third, one out and a 3-1 count. At that point he proceeds to watch two FBs go by for strikes leading to a DP to end the inning. Horrible AB!

Oh now, we all have seen other players out there having worse days than Dickerson's AB last night. They have been allowed to do what they have done daily and have received a free pass, and cotinue to start. I think we should at least be consistent if we aren't going to be fair.



GP AB TPA
Joey Votto 7 27 30 .259 .333 .370 .704
B. Phillips 7 27 30 .185 .241 .333 .575
O. Cabrera 7 29 30 .207 .200 .448 .648
Drew Stubbs 7 25 27 .240 .296 .440 .736
Scott Rolen 6 22 25 .318 .400 .727 1.127
Jay Bruce 7 23 25 .130 .200 .174 .374
R. Hernandez 5 14 18 .286 .444 .429 .873
Jonny Gomes 6 16 18 .125 .167 .313 .479
C. Dickerson 6 14 14 .286 .286 .357 .643
Laynce Nix 5 7 8 .286 .375 .286 .661
Ryan Hanigan 3 6 6 .500 .500 .667 1.167
Miguel Cairo 4 4 4 .250 .250 .250 .500
Paul Janish 1 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000

Spring~Fields
04-13-2010, 01:58 PM
The trouble with the Reds is that they have a lineup full of low-OB guys -- most of them (Gomes, Bruce, Phillips, Hernandez, Cabrera, Nix) are free swingers who make a lot of 1/2 pitch outs. They aren't forcing opposing starters to labor, they aren't stringing together long ABs, and they certainly aren't getting on-base enough to cause some contested or high-stress pitches.

That, more than anything, is the most troubling sign about this offense.

I think that the low run support can also turn around and eventually have an effect on the Reds starters as the season goes. I think that we have seen that before.

nate
04-13-2010, 02:04 PM
pitching will be nutured more than hitting,

Should that be "nurtured" or "neutered?"

:cool:

westofyou
04-13-2010, 02:10 PM
Should that be "nurtured" or "neutered?"

:cool:

Nuture them with leather, and in turn more often than not neuter them with the stick.

nate
04-13-2010, 02:17 PM
Nuture them with leather, and in turn more often than not neuter them with the stick.

So to speak...

:cool:

OnBaseMachine
04-13-2010, 06:14 PM
Some folks are going to have fun with this quote. ;)


Ross told Marlin writers that he swung at Ball 4.

“Probably,” Baker said. “That’s what velocity does. But it’s better to swing at Ball 4 than take Strike 3.”

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2010/04/13/votto-on-the-play-in-the-ninth/

WebScorpion
04-14-2010, 12:04 AM
ďProbably,Ē Baker said. ďThatís what velocity does. But itís better to swing at Ball 4 than take Strike 3.Ē

Interesting quote... I think it depends on the outcome of the swing, myself. :D

Mario-Rijo
04-14-2010, 12:31 AM
The trouble with the Reds is that they have a lineup full of low-OB guys -- most of them (Gomes, Bruce, Phillips, Hernandez, Cabrera, Nix) are free swingers who make a lot of 1/2 pitch outs. They aren't forcing opposing starters to labor, they aren't stringing together long ABs, and they certainly aren't getting on-base enough to cause some contested or high-stress pitches.

That, more than anything, is the most troubling sign about this offense.

Spot on CE and well said.

GAC
04-14-2010, 04:40 AM
reds scored some because they hit three HRs. With the lack of OBP this team is going to be dependent on power to score runs (unfortunately they don't have a lot of power).

How do we know this current team doesn't have a lot of power? I have to disagree there when I look down this lineup. But we'll have to wait and see I guess. But that pair of three-run home runs by Jonny Gomes and Ryan Hanigan last night sure was fun to watch.

The Reds have scored 16 runs and collected 24 hits in two games vs. Florida so far. Votto and Phillips may be coming out of their early season funk. And maybe so for Bruce. We'll see.

On a different note.....

Has Owings found his niche? ;)

Ltlabner
04-14-2010, 06:08 AM
The trouble with the Reds is that they have a lineup full of low-OB guys -- most of them (Gomes, Bruce, Phillips, Hernandez, Cabrera, Nix) are free swingers who make a lot of 1/2 pitch outs. They aren't forcing opposing starters to labor, they aren't stringing together long ABs, and they certainly aren't getting on-base enough to cause some contested or high-stress pitches.

That, more than anything, is the most troubling sign about this offense.

And bingo was his nameo.

The team, as constructed, will keep this discussion alive all year. Some weeks they will be "turning the corner and figuring it out" other weeks this thread will grow by leaps and bounds.

Just work the count for goodness sake. Can we just do that?

PuffyPig
04-14-2010, 06:57 AM
Since everyone is intent on relying upon small sample sizes, we have 38 runs in 8 games, or 4.75 per game.

That pace would give us 770 runs, or enough to put us third in the NL last year.

I guess we went from a poor offensive team to an elite one over night.

And take out Masset's 5 run debacle in the season's first game, and take out O's outings completely and our pitching has been outstanding.

Beware the small sample size.

Assuming Masset's first outing was just one of those things, our bullpen's problem is our #7 guy right now. Our starters have been just fine.

Let's revisit our entire offense and pitching in about 20-30 games, when we can actually make some sort of assessment.

nate
04-14-2010, 08:52 AM
Since everyone is intent on relying upon small sample sizes, we have 38 runs in 8 games, or 4.75 per game.

That pace would give us 770 runs, or enough to put us third in the NL last year.

I guess we went from a poor offensive team to an elite one over night.

And take out Masset's 5 run debacle in the season's first game, and take out O's outings completely and our pitching has been outstanding.

Beware the small sample size.

Assuming Masset's first outing was just one of those things, our bullpen's problem is our #7 guy right now. Our starters have been just fine.

Let's revisit our entire offense and pitching in about 20-30 games, when we can actually make some sort of assessment.

High five.

Spring~Fields
04-14-2010, 09:53 AM
How do we know this current team doesn't have a lot of power? I have to disagree there when I look down this lineup. But we'll have to wait and see I guess. But that pair of three-run home runs by Jonny Gomes and Ryan Hanigan last night sure was fun to watch.

The Reds have scored 16 runs and collected 24 hits in two games vs. Florida so far. Votto and Phillips may be coming out of their early season funk. And maybe so for Bruce. We'll see.

On a different note.....

Has Owings found his niche? ;)

Those were really fun to see, moments like those really bring out the smiles and laughter, making it all worth the time. :)

Florida has been just what the doctor ordered, Pittsburgh should be too.
Florida and Pittsburgh have given up a lot of runs scored. :thumbup:

Ridiculous early projections
Florida 48 6 RPG or ridiculous projection RA 972
Pittsburgh 59 7.75 RPG or ridiculous projection RA 1195
Cincinnati 40 5 RPG or ridiculous projection RA 810

I canít wait to see the Reds bats against Pittsburgh, should be fun times.



BA OBP SLG OPS
Home .230 .284 .366 .650
Away .293 .370 .537 .906

vs. Left .254 .351 .358 .709
vs. Right .248 .296 .437 .733

Batting #1 .152 .222 .303 .525
Batting #2 .200 .194 .400 .594
Batting #3 .313 .389 .469 .858
Batting #4 .273 .314 .455 .769
Batting #5 .250 .400 .571 .971
Batting #6 .167 .265 .300 .565
Batting #7 .300 .333 .433 .767
Batting #8 .370 .433 .593 1.026
Batting #9 .240 .240 .240 .480

As cf .152 .222 .303 .525
As ss .200 .194 .400 .594
As 1b .313 .389 .469 .858
As 2b .273 .314 .455 .769
As 3b .241 .371 .552 .923
As lf .333 .387 .593 .980
As rf .138 .194 .172 .366
As c .375 .483 .625 1.108
As p .286 .286 .286 .571
As ph (not dh) .235 .235 .235 .471

Ghosts of 1990
04-14-2010, 10:11 AM
I hate to admit this, but when watching the offense right now; Jay Bruce is really hurting us. He has 0 HR and further 0 RBI on the season, last night alone he left 6 men on base so it's not like he isn't getting the chances.

How does a kid go from the top prospect in baseball, a dazzling start to his career and being pretty impressive all throughout a rookie season to the complete inability to get clutch hits and hit the ball the other way? You never see him homer to center field anymore.

Bruce was decent his rookie year and was even alright in spells at the beginning of the 2009 season until about June. Then everything began going really south. Some of it is indeed bad luck; I've seen it. But I have to wonder if it's a combination of Jacoby, not giving a 23 year old hitter any form of protection in the lineup, etc.

edabbs44
04-14-2010, 10:15 AM
Some of it is indeed bad luck; I've seen it. But I have to wonder if it's a combination of Jacoby, not giving a 23 year old hitter any form of protection in the lineup, etc.

Why can't it be Jay's fault? Votto has had to deal with very similar circumstances and hasn't had the struggles that Bruce has had. Many of his ABs in his 2008 season came in the 7 hole. He's dealt with Jacoby. And I'm not entirely buying the luck angle.

Maybe Jay is just going through some growing pains and will be fine. Maybe he'll learn. Or maybe he'll bust. But I think we are too quick to look to blame others for the struggles of some of the favs on this board.

dougdirt
04-14-2010, 10:16 AM
How does a kid go from the top prospect in baseball, a dazzling start to his career and being pretty impressive all throughout a rookie season to the complete inability to get clutch hits and hit the ball the other way? You never see him homer to center field anymore.


I think its more of you seeing what you want and not what actually happened.
Looking at his splits so far in 2010, he had put the ball in play 22 times. Only 6 of them have been 'pulled'. 11 went up the middle and 5 went the opposite way.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=bruceja01&year=2010&t=b#hitlo

Ghosts of 1990
04-14-2010, 10:27 AM
Why can't it be Jay's fault? Votto has had to deal with very similar circumstances and hasn't had the struggles that Bruce has had. Many of his ABs in his 2008 season came in the 7 hole. He's dealt with Jacoby. And I'm not entirely buying the luck angle.

Maybe Jay is just going through some growing pains and will be fine. Maybe he'll learn. Or maybe he'll bust. But I think we are too quick to look to blame others for the struggles of some of the favs on this board.

Well as far as the luck goes; I'm going with what I saw without a doubt, but the numbers are there to back that up. The BABIP last year and into this year are definitely way below the league average.

In 2008, he hit in the '7' hole 8 times in 108 games.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?n1=bruceja01&t=b&year=2008

He primarily hit leadoff, 2nd (the best spot for him at this stage?) and 5th. I think he should hit 5th if they want to propoerly develop him.

He just looks like a MUCH different player. And I don't think I'm too out of line when placing some blame on the organization because he has not developed like the Brauns, the Longorias, the other guys who come up in a fashion that Jay did as a young player and are provided with adequate protection in the lineup card and good instruction. I do question this organization's ability to develop a young player to a degree. Joey Votto is the one anomaly.

Eric_the_Red
04-14-2010, 10:28 AM
If Bruce doesn't pick it up, I'm afraid I'll slip and start calling him 'Jay Kearns'.

bucksfan2
04-14-2010, 10:39 AM
Well as far as the luck goes; I'm going with what I saw without a doubt, but the numbers are there to back that up. The BABIP last year and into this year are definitely way below the league average.

In 2008, he hit in the '7' hole 8 times in 108 games.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?n1=bruceja01&t=b&year=2008

He primarily hit leadoff, 2nd (the best spot for him at this stage?) and 5th. I think he should hit 5th if they want to propoerly develop him.

He just looks like a MUCH different player. And I don't think I'm too out of line when placing some blame on the organization because he has not developed like the Brauns, the Longorias, the other guys who come up in a fashion that Jay did as a young player and are provided with adequate protection in the lineup card and good instruction. I do question this organization's ability to develop a young player to a degree. Joey Votto is the one anomaly.

When has Jay Bruce proven that he belongs to hit higher in the lineup? Instead of just handing him the job Dusty is making him earn it. He hasn't sat him much or even benched him. Dusty sees talent but he sees that Jay needs to produce. IMO if he continues to use the same plate approach he will start to hit. He has been somewhat unlucky this season, and he has shown better discipline, but he needs results.

Kc61
04-14-2010, 10:43 AM
Bruce still seems to pop the ball in the air too much.

edabbs44
04-14-2010, 10:51 AM
Well as far as the luck goes; I'm going with what I saw without a doubt, but the numbers are there to back that up. The BABIP last year and into this year are definitely way below the league average.

In 2008, he hit in the '7' hole 8 times in 108 games.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?n1=bruceja01&t=b&year=2008

He primarily hit leadoff, 2nd (the best spot for him at this stage?) and 5th. I think he should hit 5th if they want to propoerly develop him.

He just looks like a MUCH different player. And I don't think I'm too out of line when placing some blame on the organization because he has not developed like the Brauns, the Longorias, the other guys who come up in a fashion that Jay did as a young player and are provided with adequate protection in the lineup card and good instruction. I do question this organization's ability to develop a young player to a degree. Joey Votto is the one anomaly.

I was saying that Votto hit in the 7 hole a lot when he came up and didn't struggle like Bruce does.

Screwball
04-14-2010, 10:51 AM
Bruce still seems to pop the ball in the air too much.

Yeah, it's like he's trying to hit some double birds or something.

:D

Spring~Fields
04-14-2010, 01:22 PM
I hate to admit this, but when watching the offense right now; Jay Bruce is really hurting us. He has 0 HR and further 0 RBI on the season, last night alone he left 6 men on base so it's not like he isn't getting the chances.

How does a kid go from the top prospect in baseball, a dazzling start to his career and being pretty impressive all throughout a rookie season to the complete inability to get clutch hits and hit the ball the other way? You never see him homer to center field anymore.

Bruce was decent his rookie year and was even alright in spells at the beginning of the 2009 season until about June. Then everything began going really south. Some of it is indeed bad luck; I've seen it. But I have to wonder if it's a combination of Jacoby, not giving a 23 year old hitter any form of protection in the lineup, etc.

It is just a little rough right now in the very early going for Jay and one or two of the other current Reds, they won't end up the season looking like some of these other familiar faces have in their careers.



Paul Janish career .205 .290 .292 .582 Orlando Cabrera season .200 .194 .400 .594
Ryan Freel career .268 .354 .369 .723 Brandon Phillips season .273 .314 .455 .769
Juan Castro career .230 .270 .332 .602 Miguel Cairo season .250 .250 .250 .500
Corey Patterson career .252 .290 .404 .694 Drew Stubbs season .200 .273 .367 .639
Willy Taveras career .275 .321 .328 .649 Jay Bruce season .143 .200 .179 .379
Jerry HairstonJr.career .258 .327 .371 .699 Pitcher season .286 .286 .286 .571

Ron Madden
04-14-2010, 01:49 PM
How do we know this current team doesn't have a lot of power? I have to disagree there when I look down this lineup. But we'll have to wait and see I guess. But that pair of three-run home runs by Jonny Gomes and Ryan Hanigan last night sure was fun to watch.

The Reds have scored 16 runs and collected 24 hits in two games vs. Florida so far. Votto and Phillips may be coming out of their early season funk. And maybe so for Bruce. We'll see.

On a different note.....

Has Owings found his niche? ;)

I don't think anyone here claimed the Reds wouldn't score any runs.
Sure they will have games much like the last two against Florida but I'm afraid they won't score enough runs over the long haul.

Like you said above I quess we'll see.

Mario-Rijo
04-14-2010, 02:17 PM
Bruce still seems to pop the ball in the air too much.

No question he is still doing that at times. But it's mostly all mechanical/approach which means it's fixable. Just have to wait for someone to show him or him see it himself and then go about having the discipline to change what he is doing wrong. This is why a guy like Votto who has the really good understanding of his swing mechanics and the discipline to actually make an adjustment is valuable. That is why I always like the guys who have good baseball acumen and great work ethic, if there is a fixable flaw in their game they will find it and fix it. I don't have any concerns about Jays' work ethic, I just wonder if he knows what he is doing wrong and if he has the discipline to actually make the adjustment. I think he is on the right track with the what as he said he got rid of the toe tap he had last year prior to the injury and said even though it really wasn't causing him an issue it now allows for him to wait on the ball longer. Well that is part of the issue he isn't waiting on the ball long enough which is why he is so susceptible to breaking balls (especially curveballs). And he also gets out on his front foot and then usually tries to pull most everything. He is lunging at the pitch at the very last second. However when he is going right he stays back longer and doesn't have the late lunge at all or not nearly as dramatic. I have been watching every AB and he is inconsistent with this issue. In last nights game he was doing fine and then once he had a few hits under his belt he got jumpy on the front side again. He has to remain back on his back foot and let the ball travel into him, that will take care of a majority of his problem. Then he has to start to gain some discipline about trying to pull that outside pitch.

What a difference a small adjustment can make and if he figures it out and fixes it just watch the difference.

wolfboy
04-14-2010, 03:11 PM
Votto has had to deal with very similar circumstances and hasn't had the struggles that Bruce has had.

Yes he has. The difference is that Votto worked out his struggles in the minor leagues - where he had nearly twice as many at bats as Jay Bruce.

*edit - just saw your post about batting low in the order. I still think it's an unfair comparison. Votto had much more experience in the minor leagues than Bruce.