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Benihana
04-11-2010, 04:29 PM
For the first time in my lifetime, the Reds appear to have an excess of promising young starting pitching. Rather than guess who will be the best of the bunch, who do you think will be the least successful?

In other words, which one of these young SPs will not be in the Reds rotation in 2012 and after that?

Please give reasons why.

FWIW, while no one likes to predict things 2 years in advance, I picked 2012 because all of these guys will be more than major league ready at that time, and Harang and Arroyo will presumably be gone (they may be gone much sooner.) If one or more of these guys is not in the rotation by 2012, it will presumably be because they got injured, they are in the bullpen, they were traded, or they just weren't good enough. If you have another theory, fire away.

kfm
04-11-2010, 04:37 PM
I went with Volquez for two reasons. First, I think he will start to cost more money sooner than the others. Second, because he already has had a major injury. Having said that, I love Volquez's confidence. He just acts like he knows he is going to strike every hitter out. I hope their rotation is Volquez, Chapman, Cueto, Bailey, Leake. That has a chance to be filthy.

Mario-Rijo
04-11-2010, 04:51 PM
I went with Volquez for two reasons. First, I think he will start to cost more money sooner than the others. Second, because he already has had a major injury. Having said that, I love Volquez's confidence. He just acts like he knows he is going to strike every hitter out. I hope their rotation is Volquez, Chapman, Cueto, Bailey, Leake. That has a chance to be filthy.

I actually don't like Volquez's confidence, he is definitely not as aggressive as Cueto, Leake or maybe even Bailey and Chapman allegedly is pretty aggressive himself. I think he tends to pick at the corners a bit too often. But other than that I agree with ya I think he or Bailey will be the odd man out because of Baileys pitchability and Volquez's dollars. I am just not yet convinced on Homer, I don't think he's a bust but I also don't think he's a TOR arm, his stuff is often seemingly too hittable. But I do love Chapman, Cueto and Leake and think they will all be the real deal.

Will M
04-11-2010, 05:01 PM
Tough poll.

I voted Edinson Volquez for a couple of reasons.
#1 there is no guarantee he will recover his pre injury form
#2 if the team kept all six of these guys Volquez seems like a guy who could be a great closer

kfm
04-11-2010, 05:01 PM
I actually don't like Volquez's confidence, he is definitely not as aggressive as Cueto, Leake or maybe even Bailey and Chapman allegedly is pretty aggressive himself. I think he tends to pick at the corners a bit too often. But other than that I agree with ya I think he or Bailey will be the odd man out because of Baileys pitchability and Volquez's dollars. I am just not yet convinced on Homer, I don't think he's a bust but I also don't think he's a TOR arm, his stuff is often seemingly too hittable. But I do love Chapman, Cueto and Leake and think they will all be the real deal.

I don't think he lacks confidence just at times he lacks control which makes anyone look mortal. I know he had one game last year before he got hurt when his control was terrible. Go back to the year before that and watch him. I think Johnny starts to nibble way too much and at least in the past, when things start to go bad for him he really looks lost.

Mario-Rijo
04-11-2010, 05:08 PM
I don't think he lacks confidence just at times he lacks control which makes anyone look mortal. I know he had one game last year before he got hurt when his control was terrible. Go back to the year before that and watch him. I think Johnny starts to nibble way too much and at least in the past, when things start to go bad for him he really looks lost.

Interesting I actually see Cueto as the one who struggles more with mechanics and his walks stemming more from them. I even felt that way about Edinson before last year, I guess we will know better next season.

Benihana
04-11-2010, 06:26 PM
Interesting that no one has voted for Chapman yet...

RedsManRick
04-11-2010, 07:25 PM
Volquez will be in a bullpen somewhere. Wood will be traded.

mth123
04-11-2010, 08:31 PM
I voted Wood because I think he is a couple cuts below the others. I also don't like his slight build over a long season. I'm kind of biased against the smaller starters and it probably shows up in how I rank them. Wood had a tremendous year last year, but that was after a couple pretty bad and injury plagued ones. If I had to rank them in 2012 1 through 5 it would go:

1. Bailey
2. Chapman
3. Volquez
4. Leake
5. Cueto

Just don't get them all hurt.

Joseph
04-11-2010, 09:46 PM
Put me down for Cueto being odd man out. I think he nets a decent return in trade. Though as mentioned, I could see EV in the pen as a closer.

GIDP
04-11-2010, 10:08 PM
I voted Wood but I could easily see Volquez getting dealt if he comes back and pitches well.

Benihana
04-11-2010, 10:54 PM
I think Wood gets traded, maybe in a package with Alonso, for significant big league help this year. Jocketty's MO is trading prospects for players, I think Alonso and Wood would both have more value to a different team and could help the Reds get value in return.

Here is a twist on the original question: As of right now, how would you rank the six pitchers in terms of their trade value? I'll go first:

1. Cueto
2. Bailey
3. Chapman
4. Leake
5. Volquez
6. Wood

gedred69
04-11-2010, 11:52 PM
I could vote 2 ways, Cueto because of the potential return in a trade package, or Wood because of the potential of being fragile. But, being realistic, it could be any of the aforementioned as odd man out. It's way too early to predict.

Kingspoint
04-11-2010, 11:57 PM
They all will be on the REDS' 40-man roster in 2012.

Injuries have a way of taking care of these things.

Caveat Emperor
04-12-2010, 12:25 AM
Of the group, Cueto is the one I'd try to mine value from right now.

redsfandan
04-12-2010, 12:51 AM
Volquez will be in a bullpen somewhere. ...

Why so confident?

RedsManRick
04-12-2010, 01:40 PM
Why so confident?

I don't know how confident I am, but I don't like his odds staying healthy enough and/or demonstrating enough control to stay in a rotation.

HokieRed
04-12-2010, 02:11 PM
Volquez, but only because of the injury. If he's sound, then Wood.

fearofpopvol1
04-12-2010, 03:24 PM
What if Boxberger ends up being a sound SP?

bucksfan2
04-12-2010, 03:36 PM
Of the group, Cueto is the one I'd try to mine value from right now.

I am starting to lean that way as well. I think when you look at his smallish frame along with the potential of the other guys I think Cueto may be the odd man out. The first half of this season may be very important for Johnny.

Kingspoint
04-12-2010, 03:44 PM
Again, having "six" or "seven" starting pitchers does not encourage any G.M. to even consider moving one of them because he thinks he has too many....if they're of the caliber that these pitchers are. One of them still has to prove in 2011, not 2010, that he's even healthy. So, until Volquez actually does come back, he's not even in the equation.

Injuries ALWAYS have a way of sorting these things out on their own.

None of these pitchers will get traded for any reason over the next two years.

End of story.

MorganMan
04-12-2010, 04:08 PM
My vote is Chapman - I've been hearing a bunch of stuff about how baseball will get dragged into immigration reform and they may want to make an example of Chapman.

OnBaseMachine
04-12-2010, 04:19 PM
Hang on to all of them. You can never have enough pitching.

medford
04-12-2010, 04:32 PM
I voted for Volquez. Eventually, I think one of them will be traded, and I think it will happen before next season. It could be this season, if they find themselves in the race come June, in which case Wood would be the most likely canidate of the 6, however, I'm guessing the likely trade timing comes next offseason, at which point Volquez will have had some time to prove that he's recovered from TJ, and ready to log a full season for someone, somewhere. He the closest to a big contract, and therefor the most likely of these pitchers to be traded. I would guess that Wood's handidness is likely to make him more attractive to the Reds than his stuff would indicate.

Anyhoo, at any rate, after this season, I'm assuming Harang and Arroyo option's are not picked up (or they're traded by the reds before the season ends), which leaves (if healthy) Bailey & Cueto in the rotation for sure, Chapman as a viritural lock for 2011, along w/ Leake unless the whells completely fall off either kid. Volquez should be all the way back, and Wood will have proven all that he can prove in AAA, throw in a Maloney or Sam Lecure or Darryl Thomson, or someone else that may well emerge or re-emerge and its clear someone has to go before next season. I think this question gets answered much sooner than 2012.

Will M
04-13-2010, 04:01 AM
Hang on to all of them. You can never have enough pitching.

For the sake of discussion:
Lets say the Reds don't trade any prospects at the trade deadline.
Volquez comes back at the end of this season & pitches well out of the pen.
Everybody pitches decent to good.

1. I suspect that the team keeps either Arroyo or Harang for 2011 (both have options). Veteran prescence and innings eater.
2. that would leave us with seven candidates for five rotation spots. thats not a bad problem to have at all. guess what? if you can't make the top five you are bullpen bound. a little competition is good.
3. the 2011 staff could be:
SP Arroyo - veteran innings eater
SP Chapman (L) - best stuff on the team
SP Bailey - TOR potential
SP Leake
SP Cueto
--------
RP Cordero
RP Masset
RP Herrera (L)
RP Owings
RP Volquez - baby his arm in the first year back from TJ surgery
RP Wood (L) odd man out goes to the pen as a rookie
RPs Ondrusek, maybe Burton, other guys from AAA

In this scenario no one gets a starting job just because our pitching depth stinks. You have to earn your spot in the rotation and pitch well enough to keep it.

Also, we have a 13 man staff. After 2010 Lincoln, Rhodes & possibly Arroyo/Harang are gone. i think some of these quality arms could pitch in the pen if they don't crack the rotation.

GoReds
04-13-2010, 07:22 AM
I'm thinking Wood will be part of a package with Alonso to land the Reds a top middle infielder.

Cueto is really starting to worry me in that his command doesn't seem to be improving. I think he moves to the bullpen.

Degenerate39
04-13-2010, 11:01 AM
I'd say either Wood or Volquez. I think Volquez could be one of the best closers in baseball if he's moved to the bullpen because of the injury. I wouldn't mind that too much.

Sea Ray
04-13-2010, 11:15 AM
My vote is Chapman - I've been hearing a bunch of stuff about how baseball will get dragged into immigration reform and they may want to make an example of Chapman.

:confused:

Chapman is not here illegally. How do they make an example out of a legal immigrant?


Not a good first post on your part :nono:

redsfandan
04-20-2010, 03:45 PM
"Which of these pitchers will not be in the Reds rotation in 2012 and after?"

I'd like to change my vote to (P)EDinson Volquez. :(