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View Full Version : The Lance Berkman watch (or name your own future Red)



Will M
04-11-2010, 07:39 PM
The entire off season we knew that the Reds needed to improve the offense. Re signing Hernandez & getting Cabrera was an improvement over nothing but i think we all knew that wasn't going to provide enough offense.

I am starting this thread as the official trade deadline watch list thread. you say: dude its only April 11th. I say no time like the present.

Lance Berkman is 34 years old. This is certainly an age where star players decline. Yet in 2009 he was still worth 3.2 WAR. He has a contract that is up at the end of this year (2011 $15M club option with $2M buyout). The Astros have started the year 0-6 in a season that most observers feel is going to be a poor one for them. When their owner/GM decides to throw in the towel what to do with Berkman will top their list. if they decide to rebuild then Walt should be on the phone pronto. Now, Berkman has a no trade clause. why would he want to come here? well i can think of a few reasons. GABP is a hitters park. comfort wise staying in the NL central is an easier transition than going to the AL East. A chance to win both in 2010 & beyond if the team extended his deal as part of the trade.
One question regarding Berkman is whether he can still play the outfield. I believe he was moved to 1B when the Astros got Carlos Lee (as opposed to being moved their because he was a butcher in the field).

New (ideal) lineup:
CF Stubbs +- Dickerson (L)
3B Rolen
1B Votto (L)
LF Berkman (S)
RF Bruce (L) - bats 6th or 7th vs LHP
2B Phillips - bats 5th vs LHP
C Hernandez/Hanigan
SS Cabrera
--------------
Bench: Dickerson, Gomes, Hanigan, Janish & (hopefully by then) Frazier

THAT is a lineup that combined with our pitchingcould produce a playoff berth. it has was the current lineup sorely lacks: another big thumper for the middle of the lineup.

I was trying to think of who might be available that would fit the Reds needs and Walt's motus operandi of trading for an established star. Berkman fits the bill. I know others have mentioned Reyes. who else do we need to keep an eye on as the trade dealine approaches?

fearofpopvol1
04-11-2010, 07:42 PM
Assuming it was realistic, who would the Reds give up to get him? Would the Reds pick up the option next year?

Just remember, teams rarely trade within the division...especially when it's a marquee name. That fact alone will drive up the asking price if this were to be a possibility.

RedEye
04-11-2010, 08:24 PM
Would Houston really deal him in the division?

corkedbat
04-11-2010, 08:35 PM
I don't think the Stros would be interested in Harang, but I'd consider dealing Aaron to someone for young talent they might be interested in (and maybe with some of our own) - ditto Phillips.

I'd rather deal Maloney, but I'd include Wood intead for the right bat. We've got some young bats and BP arms to spare too.

A package from guys like:

Wood/Maloney
Alonso/Francisco
Fisher/Burton
Stubbs/Heisey
(among others)

...for the right bat.

IslandRed
04-11-2010, 08:38 PM
Teams might be reluctant to trade within the division when it's a challenge trade, but a salary dump trade in a guy's walk year isn't nearly as big a deal.

Falls City Beer
04-12-2010, 09:37 AM
Berkman would be nice, but if I'm looking to pick Houston's bones, I'm targeting Wandy Rodriguez.

westofyou
04-12-2010, 09:39 AM
Pass, we have a 1st baseman and he's not an OF on anything but a softball team now.

membengal
04-12-2010, 09:44 AM
I would think Houston will look to deal, in order, Carlos Lee, Roy Oswalt, and then Berkman. I would agree that Wandy would be a more than worthy target if the Astros were to make him available.

If his contract were not such an issue, Carlos Lee would look just fine in LF in GABP and at clean-up on this team to me. But I don't think there is any way to get around his contract without Houston picking up significant dollars, and I don't know why they would do that for the Reds. Perhaps if the players coming back were good enough, dunno.

nate
04-12-2010, 10:21 AM
Pass, we have a 1st baseman and he's not an OF on anything but a softball team now.

This. Although I'd prefer Berkman to Gomes in the OF, offensively and defensively.

Mario-Rijo
04-12-2010, 10:38 AM
I wouldn't hate a Berkman acquisition assuming he was healthy, although his defense in LF at this point might be pretty poor. What with his knee being what is injured currently.

Guys who may likely be available (or at least on a team out of contention) who will likely be an upgrade:

Asdrubal Cabrera - Indians - SS (though I doubt he's available, I'd try like heck)

Beyond that happening I cannot see us making a deal for a bat, it doesn't really make any sense at this point when we have a potential solid midseason acquisition in AA (Alonso) or AAA (Frazier/Heisey) perhaps. And since I am sure we won't be trading for a SS because ours will likely be good enough in the Reds eyes then I don't know there is a trade to be made this season.

George Anderson
04-12-2010, 10:45 AM
I can't recall a player who has owned the Reds like Berkman has over the years. He may be worth bringing in and sitting on the bench just so he doesn't hit agaisnt the Reds.

bucksfan2
04-12-2010, 10:47 AM
The guy who makes the most sense filling in a need while also keeping to the Reds pitching and defense philosophy may just be Carl Crawford. He would be a true leadoff player, would add plus defense in LF, and will become available if the Rays fall out of contention early this season.

Roy Tucker
04-12-2010, 01:59 PM
Pass, we have a 1st baseman and he's not an OF on anything but a softball team now.

Yep. Berkman's knees are worse than mine.

Great ballplayer in his time though. He whomped on the Reds too many times to count.

Benihana
04-12-2010, 02:16 PM
Remember when this used to be called the Ben Grieve watch?

Will M
04-12-2010, 02:45 PM
The guy who makes the most sense filling in a need while also keeping to the Reds pitching and defense philosophy may just be Carl Crawford. He would be a true leadoff player, would add plus defense in LF, and will become available if the Rays fall out of contention early this season.

i thought about him as well. the Rays have a much better team than the Astros so they might not put up the 'for sale' sign as quickly.

Will M
04-12-2010, 02:48 PM
I would think Houston will look to deal, in order, Carlos Lee, Roy Oswalt, and then Berkman. I would agree that Wandy would be a more than worthy target if the Astros were to make him available.

If his contract were not such an issue, Carlos Lee would look just fine in LF in GABP and at clean-up on this team to me. But I don't think there is any way to get around his contract without Houston picking up significant dollars, and I don't know why they would do that for the Reds. Perhaps if the players coming back were good enough, dunno.

i suspect you may be right. Lee is going to be tough to move due to his contract. the Astros would have to eat a lot of that money for the Reds to be interested. on the plus side he would come a lot cheaper in terms of prospects. plus as you say Berkman might be the guy they want to keep for PR reasons. Lee is definitely on the 'watch list' of players that will be available and could help the Reds

membengal
04-12-2010, 02:49 PM
The Rays do have Desmond Jennings waiting in the wings in the minors (altho currently hurt) who is one of the top 20 prospects in baseball, so Crawford is likely available at some point even if Tampa is in it (which I expect them to be) as Jennings could come up mid-season.

Marc D
04-12-2010, 02:54 PM
The guy who makes the most sense filling in a need while also keeping to the Reds pitching and defense philosophy may just be Carl Crawford. He would be a true leadoff player, would add plus defense in LF, and will become available if the Rays fall out of contention early this season.

My initial reaction is we can't afford him/he wouldn't come here. That said the rays are also facing the possibility of losing Carlos Pena are they not? Perhaps this is where we cash in Alonzo and wisely spend some money saved from not re-upping Arroyo/Harang?

This is one I'd like to hear thoughts on from others because landing Crawford has definitely crossed my mind.

bucksfan2
04-12-2010, 02:54 PM
i thought about him as well. the Rays have a much better team than the Astros so they might not put up the 'for sale' sign as quickly.

The Rays are in much better shape than the Astros but I still think Crawford gets dealt. The Rays may very well be the 3rd best team in baseball but the 3rd best team in their division. They also play 36 games against the Yankees and Red Sox and the earlier Crawford is traded the more value they get in return. As mentioned above they have a top prospect in the waiting to replace Crawford. Also of note Carlos Pena will be a FA next season and Alonso may be a nice fit at 1b.

The Astros have been going in the wrong direction for a number of years now but McLane continues to hold on to his aging stars. Oswalt should have been traded last year but McLane didn't. They have one of the worst farm systems in baseball and it isn't getting any better any time soon. I think that McLane will try and buy his way out of the cellar instead of rebuilding.

Will M
04-12-2010, 02:55 PM
I wouldn't hate a Berkman acquisition assuming he was healthy, although his defense in LF at this point might be pretty poor. What with his knee being what is injured currently.

Guys who may likely be available (or at least on a team out of contention) who will likely be an upgrade:

Asdrubal Cabrera - Indians - SS (though I doubt he's available, I'd try like heck)

Beyond that happening I cannot see us making a deal for a bat, it doesn't really make any sense at this point when we have a potential solid midseason acquisition in AA (Alonso) or AAA (Frazier/Heisey) perhaps. And since I am sure we won't be trading for a SS because ours will likely be good enough in the Reds eyes then I don't know there is a trade to be made this season.

Lets say its mid season. the team is a few games over .500 & a few behind the division leader. Walt & company decide they need a bat to push us over the hump. do you really think Frazier, Heisey or Alonso are going to be that guy? I have my doubts. the everyday lineup already has two youngsters who have yet to establish themselves as even average major league players (Stubbs & Bruce). to rely on even more youth to win now seems to be a thing small market teams do, not a thing winning teams do.

i think that the team could make a deal financially as the money would only be for 1/2 a season (assuming the deal is made mid season). the could even trade & extend the contract of a guy like Berkman or Crawford. why? Arroyo and/or Harang won't be back for 2011. they could use that money to pay the new hitter.

REDblooded
04-12-2010, 02:58 PM
Maybe we can see if Seattle would offer back Griffey Jr. Maybe Bonds is interested in returning. Maybe we can see if Ty Cobb can be exhumed...

Eric_the_Red
04-12-2010, 03:53 PM
Zero interest in Berkman, but I'd love to see Crawford come to Cincy. Read a report today that he will probably command a 7 year deal at $12-14/mil per. If no Arroyo/Harang next year, and factoring raises that will be due, is that feasible for the Reds?

cincrazy
04-12-2010, 04:11 PM
The Rays are in much better shape than the Astros but I still think Crawford gets dealt. The Rays may very well be the 3rd best team in baseball but the 3rd best team in their division. They also play 36 games against the Yankees and Red Sox and the earlier Crawford is traded the more value they get in return. As mentioned above they have a top prospect in the waiting to replace Crawford. Also of note Carlos Pena will be a FA next season and Alonso may be a nice fit at 1b.

The Astros have been going in the wrong direction for a number of years now but McLane continues to hold on to his aging stars. Oswalt should have been traded last year but McLane didn't. They have one of the worst farm systems in baseball and it isn't getting any better any time soon. I think that McLane will try and buy his way out of the cellar instead of rebuilding.

I love your thinking... I would trade for Crawford in a millisecond. He's JUST what this team needs. However, I think the Rays are better than the Red Sox, and I don't see them falling out of the race, period. And even if they do, I don't see it happening before July 31. No way on earth that team can trade Crawford if they're in the race and have a prayer of building a new park or attracting more fans in the future.

That would be PR suicide, quite frankly.

cincrazy
04-12-2010, 04:12 PM
Zero interest in Berkman, but I'd love to see Crawford come to Cincy. Read a report today that he will probably command a 7 year deal at $12-14/mil per. If no Arroyo/Harang next year, and factoring raises that will be due, is that feasible for the Reds?

Crawford may be asking for that a year... but that doesn't mean he won't end up with a lot more than he's asking. The Yankees will end up with Carl Crawford, without a shadow of a doubt. They're interested in him, and if the Yanks go after someone, they get him every time.

Marc D
04-12-2010, 04:17 PM
Zero interest in Berkman, but I'd love to see Crawford come to Cincy. Read a report today that he will probably command a 7 year deal at $12-14/mil per. If no Arroyo/Harang next year, and factoring raises that will be due, is that feasible for the Reds?


Votto, Volquez, Cueto, Burton, Owings, Nix and Bray are arb eligible.

We save 4.5M of salary in Rhodes and Lincoln plus just under 21M net on the departure of Arroyo and Harang. 25M should cover the tab and then some.

Cot's list of highest paid OFers:

Outfielders
The highest-paid active outfielders, by average annual value:


Manny Ramirez, $22,500,000 (2009-10)
Manny Ramirez, $20,000,000 (2001-08)
Andruw Jones, $18,100,000 (2008-09)
Torii Hunter, $18,000,000 (2008-12)
Ichiro Suzuki, $18,000,000 (2008-12)
Vernon Wells, $18,00,000 (2008-13)
Matt Holliday, $17,142,857 (2010-16)
Carlos Beltran, $17,000,000 (2005-11)
Alfonso Soriano, $17,000,000 (2007-14)
Carlos Lee, $16,666,667 (2007-12)
Jason Bay, $16,500,000 (2010-13)
Magglio Ordonez, $15,000,000 (2005-09)
J.D. Drew, $14,000,000 (2007-11)
Vladimir Guerrero, $14,000,000 (2004-08)
Johnny Damon, $13,000,000 (2006-09)
Hideki Matsui, $13,000,000 (2006-09)
Bobby Abreu, $12,800,000 (2003-07)
Kosuke Fukudome, $12,000,000 (2008-11)
Jose Guillen, $12,000,000 (2008-10)
Aaron Rowand, $12,000,000 (2008-12)
Matt Holliday, $11,500,000 (2008-09)
Nick Markakis, $11,016,667 (2009-14)
Jermaine Dye, $11,000,000 (2008-09)

I don't know about the years but 12-14M seems fair for Crawford and I think it would be money well spent for what he could mean to this OBP/leadoff challenged team.

Crawford/Stubbs/Bruce would be a great defensive OF if nothing else.

KronoRed
04-12-2010, 04:19 PM
A career .335 OBP is not a lead off hitter to me, let the yankees overpay for that.

Marc D
04-12-2010, 04:24 PM
A career .335 OBP is not a lead off hitter to me, let the yankees overpay for that.

He's been over .350 3 of the past 4 seasons. It looks like a guy hitting his prime to me.

KronoRed
04-12-2010, 04:33 PM
Maybe, but he's also nearing 30, his steals will decrase and the Reds are still the Reds, 14 million for that is not a good way to spend the cash.

Mario-Rijo
04-12-2010, 05:17 PM
Lets say its mid season. the team is a few games over .500 & a few behind the division leader. Walt & company decide they need a bat to push us over the hump. do you really think Frazier, Heisey or Alonso are going to be that guy? I have my doubts. the everyday lineup already has two youngsters who have yet to establish themselves as even average major league players (Stubbs & Bruce). to rely on even more youth to win now seems to be a thing small market teams do, not a thing winning teams do.

i think that the team could make a deal financially as the money would only be for 1/2 a season (assuming the deal is made mid season). the could even trade & extend the contract of a guy like Berkman or Crawford. why? Arroyo and/or Harang won't be back for 2011. they could use that money to pay the new hitter.

No I'm not convinced they will be but I do think the F.O. would believe that they could conceivably be as productive as anyone short of a big name star such as Berkman or Crawford. And I don't see them paying the dollars or prospects to acquire one of those types. At most (sans injuries) I would expect maybe a BP arm or a bench guy and frankly those are a bit of a stretch. And if you do extend a guy like Crawford you are probably pulling yourself out of the running to retain Votto, Bruce, Cueto etc. here in a few years. Crawford and Chapman would potentially be making the big bucks at that point.

Look at it like this Alonso for Jennings makes more sense for both teams. TB retains Crawford but not Pena and the Reds have their LF and leadoff hitter for the next 6+ years.

westofyou
04-12-2010, 05:34 PM
Carl Crawford will never be a Red, in fact buying an almost 30 year old at his most expensive stage is completely the anti-Rickey move so it's even less likely when you consider the history of Walts moves as a GM.

pedro
04-12-2010, 05:37 PM
Carl Crawford may well be the single most overrated player in MLB.

_Sir_Charles_
04-12-2010, 05:43 PM
Carl Crawford may well be the single most overrated player in MLB.

Agreed. The guy has speed, but he's rapidly approaching the time when he'll start losing that ability. Then he's a pretty average player minus the speed.

I also think many here are calling Berkman done way too early. Yes, he's currently injured, but even with a sub-par season last year, the guy still hit .274, 25 dingers, 80 rbi's, .400 obp & .500 slg. And that was a DOWN year. He's still got quite a bit left in the tank I think.

As for him playing the OF...he hasn't done that since 2007 IIRC and even then it was sporadic at best. He'd most likely be a well below average defender in the OF anymore, but wouldn't his bat make up for that? Many here accepted Dunn in left because of his bat. I personally think Berkman's bat outweighs Dunn's by a considerable margin. But I'm probably in the minority there.

Unassisted
04-12-2010, 06:15 PM
Berkman's a 10-5 guy (10-10 actually) and a native of Central Texas. I would be surprised if his list of acceptable trade destinations includes Cincinnati. He's probably looking to retire as an Astro.

_Sir_Charles_
04-12-2010, 06:19 PM
Berkman's a 10-5 guy (10-10 actually) and a native of Central Texas. I would be surprised if his list of acceptable trade destinations includes Cincinnati. He's probably looking to retire as an Astro.

I agree completely. I don't think he'll go anywhere. I was just surprised by the number of people here who said "no interest in Berkman", "pass on Berkman", etc. Just stunned me that people dismissed him so quickly. Especially when one considers how he hits here in Cincy. Granted...it was against Cincy pitching. :O)

westofyou
04-12-2010, 06:23 PM
I agree completely. I don't think he'll go anywhere. I was just surprised by the number of people here who said "no interest in Berkman", "pass on Berkman", etc. Just stunned me that people dismissed him so quickly.

He's got bad wheels, plays a position that we have filled and is expensive.

After Junior any Reds fan with a pulse should look deeply and long at any expensive vet over 30 that gets his name mentioned as a possible acqusition.

_Sir_Charles_
04-12-2010, 06:34 PM
He's got bad wheels, plays a position that we have filled and is expensive.

After Junior any Reds fan with a pulse should look deeply and long at any expensive vet over 30 that gets his name mentioned as a possible acqusition.

I'm not discounting any of that. But look back on the off season and who many here wanted to acquire for left. Quite a few guys who are advancing in years, command pretty hefty dollars and are defensively challenged. NONE of them had the bat of Berkman. Vlad, Dye, Dunn, Griffey, Burrell, and numerous others were tossed around as FA/trade possibilities. Many here also question Gomes' wheels in left too.

Btw...I'm not suggesting a Berkman acquisition here. He's not going anywhere anyway. Just surprised by the quick dismissal.

pedro
04-12-2010, 06:36 PM
Agreed. The guy has speed, but he's rapidly approaching the time when he'll start losing that ability. Then he's a pretty average player minus the speed.

I also think many here are calling Berkman done way too early. Yes, he's currently injured, but even with a sub-par season last year, the guy still hit .274, 25 dingers, 80 rbi's, .400 obp & .500 slg. And that was a DOWN year. He's still got quite a bit left in the tank I think.

As for him playing the OF...he hasn't done that since 2007 IIRC and even then it was sporadic at best. He'd most likely be a well below average defender in the OF anymore, but wouldn't his bat make up for that? Many here accepted Dunn in left because of his bat. I personally think Berkman's bat outweighs Dunn's by a considerable margin. But I'm probably in the minority there.

I don't think he's done. But I think he should probably be a DH. The thing that differentiates Berkman from Dunn in my mind is that Dunn, while not a good fielder, is healthy and playing the field isn't going to adversely effect his hitting. Berkman, OTOH, has bad knees and I think his over all game would suffer were he to have to play the OF.

westofyou
04-12-2010, 06:38 PM
I'm not discounting any of that. But look back on the off season and who many here wanted to acquire for left. Quite a few guys who are advancing in years, command pretty hefty dollars and are defensively challenged. NONE of them had the bat of Berkman. Vlad, Dye, Dunn, Griffey, Burrell, and numerous others were tossed around as FA/trade possibilities. Many here also question Gomes' wheels in left too.

Btw...I'm not suggesting a Berkman acquisition here. He's not going anywhere anyway. Just surprised by the quick dismissal.

Berkman is more expensive and not an outfielder anymore, he also woudl cost talent whereas the aforementioned just dollars.

_Sir_Charles_
04-12-2010, 06:41 PM
Berkman is more expensive and not an outfielder anymore, he also woudl cost talent whereas the aforementioned just dollars.

I thought people were talking about when he became a free agent at the end of his contract, correct? So his dollars would be going down and he wouldn't be costing players either.

I'll go back and re-read the first page. I must've misunderstood the original post or something.

As for OF'er...I agree he's more suited to stay at first or DH, but I don't think it's out of the question for him to play OF again if healthy.

REDblooded
04-12-2010, 07:21 PM
I thought people were talking about when he became a free agent at the end of his contract, correct? So his dollars would be going down and he wouldn't be costing players either.

I'll go back and re-read the first page. I must've misunderstood the original post or something.

As for OF'er...I agree he's more suited to stay at first or DH, but I don't think it's out of the question for him to play OF again if healthy.

2nd sentence of the OP talks about this being a who to look at come trade deadline thread...

Eric_the_Red
04-12-2010, 07:36 PM
So Crawford, at 30, is overrated and on the decline, but Berkman, at 34, still has something left? ooo-kay.

Hopefully the Reds won't need a LFer next season if Francisco, Alonso or Heisey can be ready.

pedro
04-12-2010, 07:54 PM
So Crawford, at 30, is overrated and on the decline, but Berkman, at 34, still has something left? ooo-kay.

Hopefully the Reds won't need a LFer next season if Francisco, Alonso or Heisey can be ready.

Berkmans done as a LF IMO but he's still an offensive force. Crawford is good defensively but has never been all that great with the bat. He's good, but that's the type of production you look for from pre-arb and pre-FA youngsters, not expensive veterans.

pedro
04-12-2010, 07:56 PM
I would hope that the Reds can develop a LF from within.

Scrap Irony
04-12-2010, 08:29 PM
Another possible LF target? Shot in the dark-- Manny.

HUGE contract but the Dodgers need to get out from under that contract while they also decide just who owns what in Chavez Ravine. This is his last year and he has no 10-5 rights. If the Dodgers struggle early, they could look to deal him. LA also really, really needs starting pitching prospects and both Maloney and Wood would look great in that spacious park for half their games. (Maloney might become a TOR candidate, IMO.)

Makes sense.

pedro
04-12-2010, 08:32 PM
Another possible LF target? Shot in the dark-- Manny.

HUGE contract but the Dodgers need to get out from under that contract while they also decide just who owns what in Chavez Ravine. This is his last year and he has no 10-5 rights. If the Dodgers struggle early, they could look to deal him. LA also really, really needs starting pitching prospects and both Maloney and Wood would look great in that spacious park for half their games. (Maloney might become a TOR candidate, IMO.)

Makes sense.

Makes sense that LA will want to dump him. I'd be shocked if the Reds even feigned interest though.

Raisor
04-12-2010, 08:34 PM
Manny from Cots>


# 2 years/$45M (2009-10)

* re-signed by LA Dodgers as free agent 3/4/09
* 09:$25M, 10:$20M (voidable)
* Ramirez must decide whether to opt out of final year of deal before fifth day after 2009 World Series or Nov. 10, whichever is later
* $30M deferred without interest:
o for 2009, Ramirez receives $10M in 2009 and $15M in 3 installments of $5M paid each June 30, 2010 to 2012
o if Ramirez does not opt out, he receives $5M in 2010 and $15M in 3 installments of $3,333,333 each on June 30, 2011 and 2012, and $8,333,333 on June 30, 2013
* full no-trade clause
* Ramirez to donate $1M to club charity
* Ramirez exercised 2010 player option 11/6/09

pedro
04-12-2010, 08:37 PM
My thinking is a that Dickerson, Heisey and Gomes would all have to either get hurt or implode before the Reds would look outwards for a LF.

Scrap Irony
04-12-2010, 08:50 PM
Manny from Cots>full no-trade clause

Ah.

Well then, nevermind.

Chip R
04-12-2010, 09:23 PM
Carl Crawford will never be a Red, in fact buying an almost 30 year old at his most expensive stage is completely the anti-Rickey move so it's even less likely when you consider the history of Walts moves as a GM.

Didn't Walt bring a 30 year old Jim Edmonds to StL?

Will M
04-12-2010, 09:25 PM
My thinking is a that Dickerson, Heisey and Gomes would all have to either get hurt or implode before the Reds would look outwards for a LF.

i feel that the team as is will not be good enough to make the playoffs this year. i feel that if they stay close the organization has the depth to make a deal to improve the club. the question would be at what position.
(the other option of course is promotion from within).
IMO Gomes and Stubbs are nice bench guys. Heisey, Frazier, Francisco or Alonso are rookies. assuming the Reds are in a position mid season to improve via trade left field seems a logical position to me

pedro
04-12-2010, 09:36 PM
Didn't Walt bring a 30 year old Jim Edmonds to StL?

Yes he did, but I don't think Carl Crawford is even in the same league as league as Edmonds, even taking into account that Edmonds career really didn't take off until he got to St. Louis.

Raisor
04-12-2010, 09:45 PM
Yes he did, but I don't think Carl Crawford is even in the same league as league as Edmonds, even taking into account that Edmonds career really didn't take off until he got to St. Louis.

Edmonds had some really good years with the Angels

Caveat Emperor
04-12-2010, 09:59 PM
My thinking is a that Dickerson, Heisey and Gomes would all have to either get hurt or implode before the Reds would look outwards for a LF.

And you can probably add Yonder Alonso to that list as well.

Chip R
04-12-2010, 10:11 PM
Yes he did, but I don't think Carl Crawford is even in the same league as league as Edmonds, even taking into account that Edmonds career really didn't take off until he got to St. Louis.

I'm just saying there is precedent.

pedro
04-12-2010, 10:13 PM
Edmonds had some really good years with the Angels

yeah he did. He was also a GG caliber CF.

But man did he turn it on once he got to the Cardinals.

westofyou
04-12-2010, 10:17 PM
Didn't Walt bring a 30 year old Jim Edmonds to StL?

True, but that was a true Rickey type of move too, guy coming off an injury traded for a pitcher who was nothing and then turned back into a pumpkin faster then you could say Cinderella.

So yes, if Walt could get Crawford in a similar deal then I'm all for it, but I doubt he'd trade the farm for him at the trading deadline.

bucksfan2
04-13-2010, 08:46 AM
True, but that was a true Rickey type of move too, guy coming off an injury traded for a pitcher who was nothing and then turned back into a pumpkin faster then you could say Cinderella.

So yes, if Walt could get Crawford in a similar deal then I'm all for it, but I doubt he'd trade the farm for him at the trading deadline.

Edmonds was a good one. He almost quietly moved from the Angles to Cards during the Jr. hoopla.

McGwire wasn't exactly acquired during his younger years.

Tino Martinez was brought over during the middle to end of his career and put up some good numbers for the Cards.

Chip R
04-13-2010, 08:53 AM
Edmonds was a good one. He almost quietly moved from the Angles to Cards during the Jr. hoopla.

McGwire wasn't exactly acquired during his younger years.

Tino Martinez was brought over during the middle to end of his career and put up some good numbers for the Cards.


Larry Walker too.

membengal
04-13-2010, 09:02 AM
Heck, they got useful years out of Reggie Sanders in his 30s.

_Sir_Charles_
04-13-2010, 09:08 AM
2nd sentence of the OP talks about this being a who to look at come trade deadline thread...

Yep, I saw that afterwards. Sorry guys.

westofyou
04-13-2010, 09:09 AM
Edmonds was a good one. He almost quietly moved from the Angles to Cards during the Jr. hoopla.

McGwire wasn't exactly acquired during his younger years.

Tino Martinez was brought over during the middle to end of his career and put up some good numbers for the Cards.

Martinez is exactly what I'm hoping to avoid, a FA signing that did nothing, Walker OTOH is a waiver trade in August, great move.

McGwire was over 30 and coming of partial injury years and had a history with both Walt and Tony, thus that one never surprised me and in retrospect it was steal too.

Roy Tucker
04-13-2010, 10:12 AM
I just don't see the Reds taking on additional payroll in 2010.

If they could move one of their big ticket pitchers (Harang, Arroyo, Cordero) for someone with a net-net difference of zero, I could see it. But my gut feel is that 2010 is the year of the kids and the Reds will live or die with them.

Homer Bailey
04-13-2010, 10:39 AM
It astonishes me that after following this team for this many years, people still throw out names like Berkman and Ramirez like we actually have a chance to get them. I understand the need for optimism, and the fact that it's just a message board, but deep down we all know that guys like that aren't coming to Cincy.

Roy Tucker
04-13-2010, 10:46 AM
It astonishes me that after following this team for this many years, people still throw out names like Berkman and Ramirez like we actually have a chance to get them. I understand the need for optimism, and the fact that it's just a message board, but deep down we all know that guys like that aren't coming to Cincy.

Never say never, i.e. Ken Griffey Jr. and Aroldis Chapman.

But yeah, by and large, I agree.

PuffyPig
04-13-2010, 10:47 AM
Tino Martinez was brought over during the middle to end of his career and put up some good numbers for the Cards.


Martinez was a huge failure as a Card.

They essentially ate the last year of his contract to rid themselves of him.

westofyou
04-13-2010, 11:32 AM
It astonishes me that after following this team for this many years, people still throw out names like Berkman and Ramirez like we actually have a chance to get them. I understand the need for optimism, and the fact that it's just a message board, but deep down we all know that guys like that aren't coming to Cincy.

Yep, the Reds historically are the guys that lose the big name star, most big win trades for them historically has been obtaining young talent and reaping it at the right moment. They are the guys who deal Groh, Blackwell, Robinson, Foster, Let Rose walk, deal E.D., Shaw, Burba, Neagle...

And what big stars have they gotten over the years, the can't miss guys?

Griffey, (White) Frank Thomas, Amos Rusie... Scott Rolen.

It's been more of the former than the later and the cost and the recent Griffey debacle pretty much point to such thoughts as being pipe dreams at best.

bucksfan2
04-13-2010, 11:49 AM
Yep, the Reds historically are the guys that lose the big name star, most big win trades for them historically has been obtaining young talent and reaping it at the right moment. They are the guys who deal Groh, Blackwell, Robinson, Foster, Let Rose walk, deal E.D., Shaw, Burba, Neagle...

And what big stars have they gotten over the years, the can't miss guys?

Griffey, (White) Frank Thomas, Amos Rusie... Scott Rolen.

It's been more of the former than the later and the cost and the recent Griffey debacle pretty much point to such thoughts as being pipe dreams at best.

Denny Neagle and Greg Vaughn were two pretty big names to come over in the mid to late 90's. I think at the time Vaughn was the only player to be traded coming off a 50 home run season.

Sure the Reds as an organization have a history of running the organization one way. But at the same time they have a different GM as well as a different owner than the past. I think its difficult to compare moves before the 94 strike to moves now. The landscape of baseball has changed drastically since that disaster. Since that strike shortened season the Reds have either been saddled with poor ownership or poor management and at times both. We will see what happens under this current front office. I don't think its any stretch to say this FO knows where this club is and what it needs. Its up to Walt to put this club not only in the best position to compete this season but also over the next 5 years.

Will M
04-13-2010, 01:52 PM
I have another target. this ones pure fantasy.

the Marlins payroll is $47M. 2009 payroll was $36M. 2008 $22M. they are a notoriously cheap franchise. they have a player whose salary is about to escalate. right now he takes up 15% of the payroll. but if their payroll stays the same he could soon take up 34% of the payroll.

he would cost a fortune in prospects. say Wood, Alonso & Frazier.
however he would hit cleanup behind Joey giving us a 1-2 punch we haven't had since... Well, in a looong time.

His name: Hanley Ramirez

Eric_the_Red
04-13-2010, 02:42 PM
I have another target. this ones pure fantasy.

the Marlins payroll is $47M. 2009 payroll was $36M. 2008 $22M. they are a notoriously cheap franchise. they have a player whose salary is about to escalate. right now he takes up 15% of the payroll. but if their payroll stays the same he could soon take up 34% of the payroll.

he would cost a fortune in prospects. say Wood, Alonso & Frazier.
however he would hit cleanup behind Joey giving us a 1-2 punch we haven't had since... Well, in a looong time.

His name: Hanley Ramirez

Would be an amazing catch. (catch, get it? He's a marlin...fishing? Ah, fergetit.) I don't see it happening, but I like the thinking.

Chip R
04-13-2010, 02:46 PM
I have another target. this ones pure fantasy.

the Marlins payroll is $47M. 2009 payroll was $36M. 2008 $22M. they are a notoriously cheap franchise. they have a player whose salary is about to escalate. right now he takes up 15% of the payroll. but if their payroll stays the same he could soon take up 34% of the payroll.

he would cost a fortune in prospects. say Wood, Alonso & Frazier.
however he would hit cleanup behind Joey giving us a 1-2 punch we haven't had since... Well, in a looong time.

His name: Hanley Ramirez


Shortstop bats 2nd, dude.

KronoRed
04-13-2010, 03:08 PM
The Marlins are bout to move into their new place, so it will be a few years before they ditch Hanley.

LoganBuck
04-13-2010, 03:47 PM
Adam Dunn, there I said it. Throw rocks accordingly.

Chip R
04-13-2010, 03:59 PM
Adam Dunn, there I said it. Throw rocks accordingly.


http://i2.ytimg.com/vi/Erthun0Pauc/default.jpg

Eric_the_Red
04-13-2010, 04:00 PM
Adam Dunn, there I said it. Throw rocks accordingly.


We already have a first baseman. ;)

KronoRed
04-13-2010, 04:07 PM
Adam Dunn, there I said it. Throw rocks accordingly.

Not clutch, doesn't run out to LF or get angry when he strikes out, doesn't play the game the right way:cool:

Will M
04-13-2010, 05:20 PM
I thought about Josh Willingham and then I thought of Adam Dunn. However, i suspect Dunn is unlikely to return to the Reds as it is the current owner/GM who traded him away in the first place. you never know. he would certainly come a lot cheaper than some other players.

Will M
04-13-2010, 11:47 PM
Another guy to keep on the watch list? Grady Sizemore

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/04/discussion-grady-sizemore.html#disqus_thread

pedro
04-14-2010, 12:17 AM
Another guy to keep on the watch list? Grady Sizemore

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/04/discussion-grady-sizemore.html#disqus_thread

Now that would be interesting.

I'd image it would take a package that included one of either Cueto, Volquez or Bailey + Alonso at the minimum.

Mario-Rijo
04-14-2010, 12:25 AM
Now that would be interesting.

I'd image it would take a package that included one of either Cueto, Volquez or Bailey + Alonso at the minimum.

And sprinkle in a Stubbs.

pedro
04-14-2010, 12:27 AM
And sprinkle in a Stubbs.

Probably.

or Dickerson or Heisey.

TheNext44
04-14-2010, 12:33 AM
Now that would be interesting.

I'd image it would take a package that included one of either Cueto, Volquez or Bailey + Alonso at the minimum.

If the Indians trade Sizemore, they are in a rebuilding phase, which means they probably don't want anyone arb eligible or close to it. So similar talent, but another pitcher. Wood, Alonso and Heisey would be a starting point, most likely.

TheNext44
04-14-2010, 12:51 AM
Haven't read this thread in days, so sorry if this is old, but I just want to defend Carl Crawford.

He's been a solid 4-5 win player for 6 years with a slight slip in 07 and 08, but nice bounce back in 09. Even if you don't value defense at all, which is his strength, he has a career .344 wOBA, which is very solid above average offense for a LF, and especially a CF. Just for comparison, that's better offense than the Reds would get from Gomes or Dickerson. And he defense blows them out of the water.

He wouldn't be at the top of my list, but he would be a huge improvement over what the Reds have right now in LF.

pedro
04-14-2010, 01:19 AM
Haven't read this thread in days, so sorry if this is old, but I just want to defend Carl Crawford.

He's been a solid 4-5 win player for 6 years with a slight slip in 07 and 08, but nice bounce back in 09. Even if you don't value defense at all, which is his strength, he has a career .344 wOBA, which is very solid above average offense for a LF, and especially a CF. Just for comparison, that's better offense than the Reds would get from Gomes or Dickerson. And he defense blows them out of the water.

He wouldn't be at the top of my list, but he would be a huge improvement over what the Reds have right now in LF.

nice player, better than what the reds have but has a .335 career OBP, little power and while a good fielder, plays a less important defensive position, has a weak arm, and makes over 8 million/year. Great guy to have in early in his careeer but not for a budget constrained team at this point in his career. I just never thought he was the star he often gets portrayed as.

corkedbat
04-14-2010, 02:08 AM
There was an article over the offseason saying the Phils might be interested in trading Jayson Werth because his contract was expiring and they had guys like Francisco and Mayberry in the pipeline. Don't know if they'd really consider dealing Werth or what we could put together that might possibly interest them (short of Volquez, Cueto or Bailey). That's who I'd really like to have in LF though.

mth123
04-14-2010, 02:23 AM
If the Indians trade Sizemore, they are in a rebuilding phase, which means they probably don't want anyone arb eligible or close to it. So similar talent, but another pitcher. Wood, Alonso and Heisey would be a starting point, most likely.

Wood, Alonso and Heisey for Sizemore? I'd do it now. Heck they could have Frazier too if need be. An impact player and this team is a major threat.

Stubbs/Dickerson CF
Rolen 3B
Sizemore LF
Votto 1B
Bruce/Gomes RF
Phillips 2B
Cabrera SS
Hernandez/Hanigan C

TheNext44
04-14-2010, 02:32 AM
Wood, Alonso and Heisey for Sizemore? I'd do it now. Heck they could have Frazier too if need be. An impact player and this team is a major threat.

Stubbs/Dickerson CF
Rolen 3B
Sizemore LF
Votto 1B
Bruce/Gomes RF
Phillips 2B
Cabrera SS
Hernandez/Hanigan C

He'd be my first choice, if available. Like you said, that is what this team needs more than anything. He would make the team an instant long term contender. Who cares what the other guys end up becoming, none of them project to be the franchise player that Sizemore already is.
But those three would just be a starting point. It should take more to get him. I'd throw in Frazier too, but not sure even that would do it.

TheNext44
04-14-2010, 02:37 AM
Just saw this on MLBTR.

Looks like if Grady is available, it would take a hefty price.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/04/discussion-grady-sizemore.html#disqus_thread


Even after an offensively-challenged, injury-shortened 2009, the Indians front office is adamant about keeping the outfielder. However, an item on the ESPN.com rumors page argues that the 27-year-old won't be around by the time the Tribe is ready to compete.

fearofpopvol1
04-14-2010, 03:42 AM
Sizemore may or may not be a good bet for the Reds unless they could renegotiate his deal. The player option for 2012 is at Sizemore's discretion if he is traded and let's be honest, he's not likely to take it. If you're going to give a massive number of top prospects, I think you should be able to get more than 2 seasons out of a player, I would think. I guess it would depend on who it would take to get him too.

I would not trade more than Alonso (or Frazier), Heisey (or Stubbs) and Wood for 2 seasons of Sizemore. I'd also hope the Reds could maybe squeeze a good reliever from the Tribe as well.

jmcclain19
04-14-2010, 04:00 AM
I have secret dreams in which Barry Zito makes his career resurgence on the banks of the Ohio River. His 12-6 curve in his Cy Young days was a item lifted out of baseball poetry.

And Crawford is going to be a Yankee. You can pretty much put that one in the bank. He wants a Brinks trucks worth of cash, the Yankees will have an opening in LF next year - it's like dance partners who are eyeing each other from across the room but just aren't allowed to let their friends know about it yet.

Tom Servo
04-14-2010, 07:37 AM
As far as potential outfield rentals go, I'd throw Brad Hawpe's name in the mix.

membengal
04-14-2010, 08:01 AM
Man do I love the idea of Sizemore. Great thought.

camisadelgolf
04-14-2010, 09:28 AM
Zero interest in Berkman, but I'd love to see Crawford come to Cincy. Read a report today that he will probably command a 7 year deal at $12-14/mil per. If no Arroyo/Harang next year, and factoring raises that will be due, is that feasible for the Reds?
If the Reds decline both Harang's and Arroyo's options, they will have a team payroll of 54.945mm (give or take a few thousand) plus whatever Votto, Nix (who would probably be DFAed), Cueto, Volquez (assuming he plays a few games before the end of the season), Burton, and Owings would earn in arbitration. We're probably talking about 70mm. There's also the very slight chance that Jay Bruce could qualify as a super two, but it's pretty doubtful.

Anyway, to answer your question, the Reds have the payroll flexibility to add Crawford on a back-loaded contract, but I'm with the others in the thread--I don't want to see it happen.

membengal
04-14-2010, 09:30 AM
Still dreaming of Sizemore, which seems like a classic Walt-esque move.

Cueto/Alonso/Frazier.

Seems like a lot, but it would get Cleveland's attention, with Wood in AAA, Chapman in AAA, and Volquez ready for 2011, Cueto is a potentially moveable piece. And with Branyan at 1b, it's not like Cleveland is set there.

Ghosts of 1990
04-14-2010, 09:34 AM
If the Indians trade Sizemore, they are in a rebuilding phase, which means they probably don't want anyone arb eligible or close to it. So similar talent, but another pitcher. Wood, Alonso and Heisey would be a starting point, most likely.

After they traded Cliff Lee last year, I started saying that Indians fans should prepare for the ultimate Sizemore trade, summer 2010 should the Indians fall out of contention this year. My mind has now changed due to when I read an article in the Sporting News that I couldn't find to reference.

The interview was done heavily talking to Mark Shapiro, former GM and now Indians higher-up in the FO; and while a lot can change and guys don't always tell the truth--as long as Shapiro is there I think Sizemore remains (at least until he's around 34-35) through his prime years.

There are a few reasons I say this. Shapiro truly believes (maybe wrongfully at this point) that Sizemore is a once in a generation player when healthy. He is Shapiro's one shining move really. He's his stake of success in that organization. I think he'll remain the Indians centerpiece for that reason alone and if he can have any semblance of returning to form, I think the Indians will do what it takes to keep him in Cleveland.

membengal
04-14-2010, 09:36 AM
If I were Shapiro, I would say the same things, to ensure that, if I did move Sizemore, I could extract as large a price as possible. No way anyone on that Cleveland team is untouchable.

Ghosts of 1990
04-14-2010, 09:46 AM
I think we're one big RH bat away from being a contender, aside from keeping the young talent we have. So I ask myself; who around the league is in our price range at a position of need in the next year or two (preferably a FA this offseason) that will be available from July onwards?

A guy like Jason Bay would have been nice but he's too pricey. We'll have to see if the Mets are committed to keeping him. Really I see us only in the range of bringing a guy back like a Jose Guillen or maybe a Magglio Ordonez type. And in that case, you really have to just stick with Gomes in terms of production and price; no one from the RH side would be that much of an upgrade for what is affordable for us. You have to think we'll have a few young guys due for extensions soon: (Votto, Bruce & Stubbs in a few years if they buy out his arb eligible years and they perform as advertised + all of the young arms.)

Slyder
04-14-2010, 12:11 PM
Still dreaming of Sizemore, which seems like a classic Walt-esque move.

Cueto/Alonso/Frazier.

Seems like a lot, but it would get Cleveland's attention, with Wood in AAA, Chapman in AAA, and Volquez ready for 2011, Cueto is a potentially moveable piece. And with Branyan at 1b, it's not like Cleveland is set there.

Why dont we wait and see what Volquez has after the surgery before we start relying on him to replace one of the other arms we might deal in a trade? For all we know he could come back and be Brandon Claussen or Francisco Liriano circa 2009 (5.80 ERA). I personally would rather Volquez get the full season off with only minimal innings building back up to a 2011 return in the pen to start until we see he's "back".

RedsManRick
04-14-2010, 12:16 PM
Magglio seems like a great fit if we decide to add a piece. He's got a $15M club option for 2011 with no buyout, so that's not a problem. Because the contract is expiring, we could probably get him without giving up a top 10 prospect, assuming the Tigers are out of contention; perhaps Maloney or Wood plus a low minors guy.

I'm still not completely convinced that he or anybody else represents a significant upgrade over the Gomes/Dickerson platoon, but he seems like as a good a target as any.

bucksfan2
04-14-2010, 12:21 PM
While we are throwing out names I may will throw one more out there just for giggles. Jose Reyes. I heard a report on the radio today about the state of the Mets and someone mentioned that if the Mets enter a true rebuilding phase, which it is almost inevitable, Reyes may be the one to go.

I think Reyes bark is more than his bite, but he is interesting none the less. I don't know if he will ever be right and don't know if I exactly want him in the clubhouse. There was a pretty big split in the Mets a few years ago between the Hispanics and non-Hispanics and I think Reyes was right in the middle of it. I also think that if push came to shove the Mets would invest around Wright rather than Reyes.

membengal
04-14-2010, 01:02 PM
Why dont we wait and see what Volquez has after the surgery before we start relying on him to replace one of the other arms we might deal in a trade? For all we know he could come back and be Brandon Claussen or Francisco Liriano circa 2009 (5.80 ERA). I personally would rather Volquez get the full season off with only minimal innings building back up to a 2011 return in the pen to start until we see he's "back".


That's why I said Volquez back for 2011 in my original post. But by then, he should be ready to start.

At any rate, with Wood and Chapman knocking on the door, there is an arm expendable, and if it needed to be Cueto to get to a Sizemore, I hope they are prepared to do that.

Tom Servo
04-14-2010, 01:08 PM
I could be convinced to do Cueto and Alonso (plus another piece or two) for Sizemore, but Frazier on top of it is a bit too much for me. At this point I see the Reds trading BP either after this season or at this year's deadline if we're out of it, ensuring Frazier the 2B job.

fearofpopvol1
04-14-2010, 03:04 PM
Still dreaming of Sizemore, which seems like a classic Walt-esque move.

Cueto/Alonso/Frazier.

Seems like a lot, but it would get Cleveland's attention, with Wood in AAA, Chapman in AAA, and Volquez ready for 2011, Cueto is a potentially moveable piece. And with Branyan at 1b, it's not like Cleveland is set there.

I think that's too much for basically 1.5 seasons of Sizemore. You're literally trading 2 out of 3 top prospects from your system plus an ace potential pitcher. If Sizemore had 3 or 4 years left on his deal, this might make more sense. Think about that.

membengal
04-14-2010, 03:07 PM
Walt tended to parlay such acquisitions with contract extensions when in St. Louis. I would be envisioning the same kind of move here.

fearofpopvol1
04-14-2010, 03:32 PM
Walt tended to parlay such acquisitions with contract extensions when in St. Louis. I would be envisioning the same kind of move here.

The game has changed a LOT since then. Now more than ever, players want to test FA to get this biggest deal they can. About the only thing that would work in the Reds' favor would be that Sizemore was coming off a down year. But even then, I just don't see Sizemore renegotiating.

membengal
04-14-2010, 03:38 PM
It does not hurt to ask. I want Walt being aggressive. It's the kind of move that would help put this team over-the-top (in terms of being over .500 and moving into the world of contention), and would be a further nice sign to the fanbase in the wake of the Chapman signing that the proactive phase extends to the major league club.

In short, I don't want to hear from the Reds why they can't, they have assembled a lot of good pieces in the minors that are potential trade bait, I want the hook baited.

Benihana
04-14-2010, 03:39 PM
Trading Wood, Heisey and Alonso for a superstar that fills a need would be the ideal. All three of those players are superfluous for the Reds at the present time. They would be the top 3 guys I'd be looking to trade in any given deal.

That said, I don't think there is a chance that the Reds could get Grady Sizemore.

Will M
04-14-2010, 03:46 PM
I think we're one big RH bat away from being a contender, aside from keeping the young talent we have. So I ask myself; who around the league is in our price range at a position of need in the next year or two (preferably a FA this offseason) that will be available from July onwards?

A guy like Jason Bay would have been nice but he's too pricey. We'll have to see if the Mets are committed to keeping him. Really I see us only in the range of bringing a guy back like a Jose Guillen or maybe a Magglio Ordonez type. And in that case, you really have to just stick with Gomes in terms of production and price; no one from the RH side would be that much of an upgrade for what is affordable for us. You have to think we'll have a few young guys due for extensions soon: (Votto, Bruce & Stubbs in a few years if they buy out his arb eligible years and they perform as advertised + all of the young arms.)


Magglio seems like a great fit if we decide to add a piece. He's got a $15M club option for 2011 with no buyout, so that's not a problem. Because the contract is expiring, we could probably get him without giving up a top 10 prospect, assuming the Tigers are out of contention; perhaps Maloney or Wood plus a low minors guy.

I'm still not completely convinced that he or anybody else represents a significant upgrade over the Gomes/Dickerson platoon, but he seems like as a good a target as any.

i agree with both of you. i certainly don't want the Reds to trade away top talent for a guy who is a marginal upgrade over what we have here. if thats the best deal Walt can find mid season i'd rather just promote another kid and hope for the best.

Alonso/Heiey/Wood for a true star player who is signed past 2011 would be the type of deal i would hope for.

LoganBuck
04-14-2010, 03:48 PM
It does not hurt to ask. I want Walt being aggressive. It's the kind of move that would help put this team over-the-top (in terms of being over .500 and moving into the world of contention), and would be a further nice sign to the fanbase in the wake of the Chapman signing that the proactive phase extends to the major league club.

In short, I don't want to hear from the Reds why they can't, they have assembled a lot of good pieces in the minors that are potential trade bait, I want the hook baited.

Agree, the issue is going to become too many prospects, that are too good for Louisville. Prospects serve two purposes, cheap talent for the team, and currency to acquire established players. Look at the starting pitching controlled by this team. Harang, Arroyo, Volquez, Bailey, Cueto, Leake, Chapman, Wood, and lesser but valuable prospects Maloney, Lecure, Thompson, Klinker, and Smith. Same story with corner positions.

Think Cleveland Indians circa 1997-2001. They traded away a boatload of players, didn't win the title, but most Indians fans would agree that they went for it, and they had fun doing it.

Getting into July in contention is the key.

bucksfan2
04-14-2010, 03:54 PM
The game has changed a LOT since then. Now more than ever, players want to test FA to get this biggest deal they can. About the only thing that would work in the Reds' favor would be that Sizemore was coming off a down year. But even then, I just don't see Sizemore renegotiating.

I just don't know about that theory anymore. I the only players who have refused to negotiate and enter free agency have been Boras clients or the top tier free agents. Even then the FA market is pretty much a known commodity. Look at the Jason Bay situation last season. It was pretty obvious that when the Red Sox declined to bring him back there were only a handful of teams bidding on his services. You can even look at Holliday, it was fairly obvious that he would return to St. Louis very early in the free agent season.

I do think a player who is in his final year of the contract has a lot of negotiating power by using free agency in his favor. When free agency starts and the interested teams begin to dwindle down the power now resides with the club.

Furthermore I think too many people get very conservative when dealing with prospects. Just looking at the Rolen trade and how big of a positive impact it has made on the club since his arrival makes you wonder if prospects are being overvalued in today's game. Too many clubs have become very risk adverse when dealing with prospects.

Chip R
04-14-2010, 04:11 PM
Walt tended to parlay such acquisitions with contract extensions when in St. Louis. I would be envisioning the same kind of move here.


He did it already with Rolen.

membengal
04-14-2010, 04:26 PM
Yup. Like that.

Chip R
04-14-2010, 04:32 PM
Yup. Like that.


Although I can't imagine what would motivate someone to sign an extention here as opposed to StL. StL has a perennial contender and 40K fans a night. Here, the Reds haven't finished above .500 since 2000 and 40K a night is a rare occurance.

membengal
04-14-2010, 04:44 PM
Once upon a time, that was not necessarily the case.

The Reds have to start somewhere, and make a statement to the fans and to the team. The pieces are in place to make this kind of move, I hope they make it if and when the opportunity presents itself.

11larkin11
04-14-2010, 05:07 PM
Question: If we were to get Sizemore, who would play center, him or Stubbs?

Raisor
04-14-2010, 05:11 PM
Question: If we were to get Sizemore, who would play center, him or Stubbs?

another question, would the Reds use Stubbs in a trade to get Sizemore?

Benihana
04-14-2010, 05:16 PM
another question, would the Reds use Stubbs in a trade to get Sizemore?

They would have to. Stubbs and Cueto or Bailey is probably what the Indians would want. Maybe Alonso too.

TheNext44
04-14-2010, 05:17 PM
If the Reds decline both Harang's and Arroyo's options, they will have a team payroll of 54.945mm (give or take a few thousand) plus whatever Votto, Nix (who would probably be DFAed), Cueto, Volquez (assuming he plays a few games before the end of the season), Burton, and Owings would earn in arbitration. We're probably talking about 70mm. There's also the very slight chance that Jay Bruce could qualify as a super two, but it's pretty doubtful.

Anyway, to answer your question, the Reds have the payroll flexibility to add Crawford on a back-loaded contract, but I'm with the others in the thread--I don't want to see it happen.

I got slightly different numbers. Here is my estimate of what the Reds' payroll will be with the players they currently have in the system based on Cott's. This is assuming what I think would be the worst case scenario for the Arb numbers for those eligible.


Hanigan 450000
Votto 5000000
Phillips 11118000
Rolen 8167000
Janish 450000
Dickerson 450000
Stubbs 450000
Bruce 500000
Miller 450000
Cozart 400000
Balentien 415000
Heisey 400000
Frazier 400000
Cueto 3000000
Bailey 450000
Leake 400000
Chapman 3708000
Wood 400000
Cordero 12150000
Masset 1545000
Herrera 450000
Maloney 415000
Valquez 2000000
Burton 1500000
Owings 1500000
Options 6000000
Total 62168000

jmcclain19
04-14-2010, 05:45 PM
If the Reds decline Arroyo & Harang's options they are on the hook for $4mil

$4.5 if they decline Cabrera's option.

TheNext44
04-14-2010, 05:56 PM
If the Reds decline Arroyo & Harang's options they are on the hook for $4mil

$4.5 if they decline Cabrera's option.

I was just going by Cots. The $500K option is if Cabrera declines it. It's $1M if the Reds decline it. And the extra $1M is for Alonso.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tj1FG9GPVGFzrJykhM94ogw&output=html

RedsManRick
04-14-2010, 06:02 PM
Question: If we were to get Sizemore, who would play center, him or Stubbs?

Stubbs without a doubt. Sizemore is a league average CF defensively. Stubbs is a perennial gold golve candidate.

Gainesville Red
04-14-2010, 08:03 PM
Stubbs without a doubt. Sizemore is a league average CF defensively. Stubbs is a perennial gold golve candidate.

I'd say it depends a lot more on who the coach is than the skills each candidate displays.

Vet plays, dude. (Also, just so we're clear, CF leads off, SS bats second.)

Eric_the_Red
04-14-2010, 08:24 PM
I'd say it depends a lot more on who the coach is than the skills each candidate displays.

Vet plays, dude. (Also, just so we're clear, CF leads off, SS bats second.)

That's hilarious. Too bad it isn't true, but feel free to not let facts interfere with a good Dusty burn.

Slyder
04-14-2010, 08:39 PM
That's hilarious. Too bad it isn't true, but feel free to not let facts interfere with a good Dusty burn.

Vets just get priority on bench spots cause they've paid their dues dude ;). :p:

Falls City Beer
04-14-2010, 08:56 PM
If they want to contend this season, they're going to need a very good starter. They're short at least two of those.

Mario-Rijo
04-20-2010, 12:31 AM
The more I think about it the guy who I'd go after is Shin Soo Choo. And make it a multi player deal and get Asdrubal Cabrera. Deal away what ya got to deal to get it done.

Reds get Choo and Cabrera

Indians get Bailey, Alonso, Fisher (or another relief prospect) and Orlando Cabrera

Reds bring up Maloney or Wood until they are ready for Chapman.

Ghosts of 1990
04-20-2010, 12:36 AM
The more I think about it the guy who I'd go after is Shin Soo Choo. And make it a multi player deal and get Asdrubal Cabrera. Deal away what ya got to deal to get it done.

Reds get Choo and Cabrera

Indians get Bailey, Alonso, Fisher (or another relief prospect) and Orlando Cabrera

Reds bring up Maloney or Wood until they are ready for Chapman.

I think every team in baseball would love to have Choo. He's about to become untouchable. His stock is rising. He'll be an All-Star this year. Guy is a really good hitter. a pure .300 hitter with developing power who hits in the clutch.

Cabrera's stock is pretty high as well. I don't think that the Indians are gonna look to move either for several years. They're building blocks for them.

Mario-Rijo
04-20-2010, 12:51 AM
I think every team in baseball would love to have Choo. He's about to become untouchable. His stock is rising. He'll be an All-Star this year. Guy is a really good hitter. a pure .300 hitter with developing power who hits in the clutch.

Cabrera's stock is pretty high as well. I don't think that the Indians are gonna look to move either for several years. They're building blocks for them.

True but I'd get them on the phone and find out if it's doable for sure.

TRF
04-20-2010, 10:35 AM
Stubbs without a doubt. Sizemore is a league average CF defensively. Stubbs is a perennial gold golve candidate.

That can't hit his way out of a wet paper bag.

I'd trade Stubbs for Sizemore 10 million times out of 10 million. If I have to throw in either Cueto or Bailey, I do that too, not both mind you, but one or the other. Add Alonso? yep. Now you have something resembling an offense.

RedsManRick
04-20-2010, 10:42 AM
That can't hit his way out of a wet paper bag.

I'd trade Stubbs for Sizemore 10 million times out of 10 million. If I have to throw in either Cueto or Bailey, I do that too, not both mind you, but one or the other. Add Alonso? yep. Now you have something resembling an offense.

I wasn't attempting to compare them offensively, just stating that if they're both in the OF, Stubbs belongs in CF.

TRF
04-20-2010, 10:47 AM
I wasn't attempting to compare them offensively, just stating that if they're both in the OF, Stubbs belongs in CF.

I realize that, but I'm saying if you get Sizemore there is no room for Stubbs whatsoever.

RedsManRick
04-20-2010, 10:50 AM
I realize that, but I'm saying if you get Sizemore there is no room for Stubbs whatsoever.

I disagree. Sizemore is an average CF and would be a plus defender in a corner. Now, maybe trading Stubbs is the best way to get Sizemore, but if were able to get him without trading Stubbs, Stubbs would still be in CF for me, likely in a platoon with Dickerson.

Ghosts of 1990
04-20-2010, 11:12 AM
I disagree. Sizemore is an average CF and would be a plus defender in a corner. Now, maybe trading Stubbs is the best way to get Sizemore, but if were able to get him without trading Stubbs, Stubbs would still be in CF for me, likely in a platoon with Dickerson.

Is Sizemore only an average CF? I remember they would never play Franklin Gutierrez (the game's finest defensive outfielder) in center in Cleveland because they liked what Grady did out there. Grady has won a gold glove or two if i'm not mistaken.

Falls City Beer
04-20-2010, 11:14 AM
Seriously? We're sweating losing Stubbs in a deal for Grady Sizemore? Madness.

Homer Bailey
04-20-2010, 11:50 AM
Seriously? We're sweating losing Stubbs in a deal for Grady Sizemore? Madness.

The question at hand was who would play center if we had Stubbs and Sizemore.

Which is madness, much like this entire thread, because the Reds will not be getting any of the players mentioned.

M2
04-20-2010, 04:10 PM
The Reds need to be after players like Reid Brignac and Wilson Ramos.

mth123
04-20-2010, 05:54 PM
The Reds need to be after players like Reid Brignac and Wilson Ramos.

Yes.

Mario-Rijo
04-20-2010, 06:40 PM
The Reds need to be after players like Reid Brignac and Wilson Ramos.

What is the skinny on Wilson Ramos, I don't know if I have ever heard of him? Is he the minor league catcher of the Twins?

mth123
04-20-2010, 07:04 PM
What is the skinny on Wilson Ramos, I don't know if I have ever heard of him? Is he the minor league catcher of the Twins?

Yes and with Mauer signed he should be obtainable. Rhodes and a good prospect might do it.

M2
04-20-2010, 07:04 PM
What is the skinny on Wilson Ramos, I don't know if I have ever heard of him? Is he the minor league catcher of the Twins?

Yep, that's him. Got no job waiting for him in the majors.

To be honest, I'm not 100% sold on him (lacks patience and he doesn't exactly have the best motor), but he should be ready for a major league intro this September.

RedsManRick
04-20-2010, 09:09 PM
Is Sizemore only an average CF? I remember they would never play Franklin Gutierrez (the game's finest defensive outfielder) in center in Cleveland because they liked what Grady did out there. Grady has won a gold glove or two if i'm not mistaken.

Guys age, some quicker than others. Being a great CF 3 or 4 years ago doesn't mean you're a great one today.

FCB, why are you getting worked up over a complete strawman; Who is talking about not wanting to trade Stubbs for Sizemore?

Falls City Beer
04-20-2010, 09:11 PM
Guys age, some quicker than others. Being a great CF 3 or 4 years ago doesn't mean you're a great one today.

FCB, why are you getting worked up over a complete strawman; Who is talking about not wanting to trade Stubbs for Sizemore?

Yeah, my bad. I misread the argument.

Benihana
04-21-2010, 11:03 AM
The Reds need to be after players like Reid Brignac and Wilson Ramos.

x2

So let's think about what these teams need. My guess is the Rays want young OFs with Crawford and Upton's days with the team likely numbered.

I'd offer them their choice of Stubbs, Heisey, Francisco or Frazier along with an arm like Daryl Thompson, who looks to be rehabilitated from his chronic surgeries.

What do the Twins need? Maybe young pitching? I'd give 'em their choice of any minor league pitcher other than Chapman, Wood, and Boxberger. I'd throw in a guy like Arthur Rhodes, who could probably be their closer for the rest of the year. That seems about right.

For the record, Homer Bailey would not be off the table in either of these deals.

Thoughts?

bucksfan2
04-21-2010, 11:12 AM
x2

So let's think about what these teams need. My guess is the Rays want young OFs with Crawford and Upton's days with the team likely numbered.

I'd offer them their choice of Stubbs, Heisey, Francisco or Frazier along with an arm like Daryl Thompson, who looks to be rehabilitated from his chronic surgeries.

What do the Twins need? Maybe young pitching? I'd give 'em their choice of any minor league pitcher other than Chapman, Wood, and Boxberger. I'd throw in a guy like Arthur Rhodes, who could probably be their closer for the rest of the year. That seems about right.

For the record, Homer Bailey would not be off the table in either of these deals.

Thoughts?

If the Reds are trading a young pitcher I hope its Cueto instead of Bailey. I am still high on Homer and not so much on Cueto.

Benihana
04-21-2010, 11:14 AM
If the Reds are trading a young pitcher I hope its Cueto instead of Bailey. I am still high on Homer and not so much on Cueto.

I thought this could be Homer's year to breakout. I also thought that in 2009, and 2008. I'm getting sick of thinking that.

Cueto and Bailey are the same age and have similar upsides. One guy has a career ERA of 4.60 with a 1.40 WHIP and 7.4 K/9, while the other has a career ERA of 5.60 with a 1.64 WHIP and 6.2 K/9- not to mention an ERA of 7.47 this year. Why are you still high on the second guy and not the first?

bucksfan2
04-21-2010, 11:29 AM
I thought this could be Homer's year to breakout. I also thought that in 2009, and 2008. I'm getting sick of thinking that.

Cueto and Bailey are the same age and have similar upsides. One guy has a career ERA of 4.60 with a 1.40 WHIP and 7.4 K/9, while the other has a career ERA of 5.60 with a 1.64 WHIP and 6.2 K/9- not to mention an ERA of 7.47 this year. Why are you still high on the second guy and not the first?

There are a couple of reasons I like Homer better.

-Bailey's career numbers are a little distorted. He was brought up too soon and then yo-yo'd for the better part of three more seasons.

-I like Homer's upside much more than Cueto. Cueto's calling card has been his control. But lately he just hasn't had that type of control. He is nibbling around the corners and not attacking hitters enough.

-I like Homer's frame and motion much more than Cueto. I give an edge to Homer because he is bigger, has a better frame, and a more carefree motion. Cueto's size is a concern to me.

-I think Homer has the ability, and pitches better, when attacking the batter. He not only has good velocity but with the development of a splitter he has a legit out pitch.

-If Cueto's control continues to be shaky I don't see him improving much as a pitcher and am willing to let another team try and develop him further. I think Homer has the upside of a TOR pitcher while Cueto just doesn't have that kind of upside.

Benihana
04-21-2010, 11:36 AM
There are a couple of reasons I like Homer better.

-Bailey's career numbers are a little distorted. He was brought up too soon and then yo-yo'd for the better part of three more seasons.

Well, they are the same age, and Cueto has pitched 50% more innings in his major league career. I don't know if you can blame all of Bailey's problems on being brought up too soon.


-I like Homer's upside much more than Cueto. Cueto's calling card has been his control. But lately he just hasn't had that type of control. He is nibbling around the corners and not attacking hitters enough.

-I like Homer's frame and motion much more than Cueto. I give an edge to Homer because he is bigger, has a better frame, and a more carefree motion. Cueto's size is a concern to me.

-I think Homer has the ability, and pitches better, when attacking the batter. He not only has good velocity but with the development of a splitter he has a legit out pitch.

-If Cueto's control continues to be shaky I don't see him improving much as a pitcher and am willing to let another team try and develop him further. I think Homer has the upside of a TOR pitcher while Cueto just doesn't have that kind of upside.

I won't argue on the scouting report. But eventually as we all know, that has to translate into results. I think Cueto's mental makeup/intangibles are significantly better than Bailey's, and that has led to him having much more success at the big league level. As trivial as it may sound, I also think that Cueto will be helped by his comraderie with Volquez, Cordero, and soon enough Chapman.

The Rays love projects like Bailey- he could be Matt Garza Part 2. If he could fetch us our SS for the next 5+ years, I'd pull the trigger.

bucksfan2
04-21-2010, 12:12 PM
Well, they are the same age, and Cueto has pitched 50% more innings in his major league career. I don't know if you can blame all of Bailey's problems on being brought up too soon.

Everyone develops at their own pace. Bailey was brought up much too soon, even before Cueto was here, and has played the up and down game over the past 3 seasons. What he proved at the end of last season I was very impressed with. I know he had his fair share of starts against the Pirates, but I remember watching him pitch a games against the Phillies thinking it has finally clicked with Bailey.

I think Cueto had the edge early because of his control. If he isn't locating his pitches and nibbling around the corners he throws way to many pitches and faces more batters than he should. IMO it isn't a case like Leake where you expect the control to get better, Cueto has always had issues throwing strikes.


I won't argue on the scouting report. But eventually as we all know, that has to translate into results. I think Cueto's mental makeup/intangibles are significantly better than Bailey's, and that has led to him having much more success at the big league level. As trivial as it may sound, I also think that Cueto will be helped by his comraderie with Volquez, Cordero, and soon enough Chapman.

Not going to argue the Latin factor with the young pitches. I think it is important but I also would be a little cautious of it. I remember it caused some pretty big splits in the Mets clubhouse when things got bad.

I was talking with a friend of mine after Bailey's first start. He said in the past Homer would have opened the flood gates and blown the game open. As it was he didn't pitch great, but he kept the team in the game. I was actually somewhat impressed with Homer last night after the 1st. He seemed like he found his groove and looked very good after the first inning. He just threw way too many pitches in that inning. I think that effort will springboard Homer throughout the season. C Trent had a Bailey quote saying "He said, 'Hey, just go after these guys, quit trying to be too fine, just go right after them with your stuff.' After that, everything flowed smoothly." All in all I just wasn't that disappointed in Homer last night. He needs to pitch better, as does the entire Reds staff, but Homer is the least of my worries right now.


The Rays love projects like Bailey- he could be Matt Garza Part 2. If he could fetch us our SS for the next 5+ years, I'd pull the trigger.

I do find it tough to believe that the Reds would spend all that time and effort developing Homer only to trade him after a bumpy few starts.

Edd Roush
04-21-2010, 01:43 PM
I like Ramos' slugging percentage last year. I know absolutely nothing about his defense, but seems to be a perfect Dusty Baker player in that he doesn't walk much. He certainly seems more advanced than Mesoraco and if all it takes is a pitching prospect, I'm down.

TRF
04-21-2010, 02:01 PM
I like Ramos' slugging percentage last year. I know absolutely nothing about his defense, but seems to be a perfect Dusty Baker player in that he doesn't walk much. He certainly seems more advanced than Mesoraco and if all it takes is a pitching prospect, I'm down.

If Mes keeps hitting like he is right now, we'll see him at AA by the ASB.

He's killing the ball.

Edd Roush
04-21-2010, 02:16 PM
If Mes keeps hitting like he is right now, we'll see him at AA by the ASB.

He's killing the ball.

No doubt, Mes is doing well now. Still the washout rate on catchers is pretty high and even if you have Mes tearing up AA, you could still have Ramos tearing up AAA.

Mes may be the minor leaguer I'm pulling for most in the Reds' system right now, but I still would not mind having Ramos to have two pretty good catching prospects.

Benihana
04-21-2010, 02:31 PM
Everyone develops at their own pace. Bailey was brought up much too soon, even before Cueto was here, and has played the up and down game over the past 3 seasons. What he proved at the end of last season I was very impressed with. I know he had his fair share of starts against the Pirates, but I remember watching him pitch a games against the Phillies thinking it has finally clicked with Bailey.

If I only had a quarter for as many times as I've thought that myself. Problem is here we are in 2010 and it still hasn't clicked, or so says his 7.47 ERA.


I think Cueto had the edge early because of his control. If he isn't locating his pitches and nibbling around the corners he throws way to many pitches and faces more batters than he should. IMO it isn't a case like Leake where you expect the control to get better, Cueto has always had issues throwing strikes.

I'm confused- Is Cueto's control an asset or a liability?




Not going to argue the Latin factor with the young pitches. I think it is important but I also would be a little cautious of it. I remember it caused some pretty big splits in the Mets clubhouse when things got bad.

I was talking with a friend of mine after Bailey's first start. He said in the past Homer would have opened the flood gates and blown the game open. As it was he didn't pitch great, but he kept the team in the game. I was actually somewhat impressed with Homer last night after the 1st. He seemed like he found his groove and looked very good after the first inning. He just threw way too many pitches in that inning. I think that effort will springboard Homer throughout the season. C Trent had a Bailey quote saying "He said, 'Hey, just go after these guys, quit trying to be too fine, just go right after them with your stuff.' After that, everything flowed smoothly."

With all due respect, this reminds me of certain posters on the minor league forum cherry-picking the good weeks that Drew Stubbs used to have, while ignoring the abysmal efforts.


All in all I just wasn't that disappointed in Homer last night. He needs to pitch better, as does the entire Reds staff, but Homer is the least of my worries right now.


Our alleged future ace's 7.47 ERA is the least of your worries?



I do find it tough to believe that the Reds would spend all that time and effort developing Homer only to trade him after a bumpy few starts.

Really? What about the other 30 bumpy starts? I would say that at least 75% of his major league starts could be described as "bumpy."

bucksfan2
04-21-2010, 02:47 PM
I'm confused- Is Cueto's control an asset or a liability?

Cueto's control was his calling card in the minors. He supposidly had great control which is why I think he got the edge over Homer. As a major leaguer his control has been dicey at best.






With all due respect, this reminds me of certain posters on the minor league forum cherry-picking the good weeks that Drew Stubbs used to have, while ignoring the abysmal efforts.


Fair enough. I have seen many pitchers get by on trickery, luck, and guile to pitch good, if not great games. I have at time seen Homer on the mound completely dominant. An overpowering pitcher with an out pitch that is also only 24 years old I am not giving up on. I don't think the Reds would give up on him either. I though it was ludicrous to see one poster mention trading Homer for pennies on the dollar to send a message to the club.



Our alleged future ace's 7.47 ERA is the least of your worries?

I fully expect Homer to bounce back. Im not making any snap decision on the pitching rotation after 3 starts. Heck if you were doing that 4/5th of the rotation would have been shipped to the pen or traded.



Really? What about the other 30 bumpy starts? I would say that at least 75% of his major league starts could be described as "bumpy."

All a part of the developmental process. He was young, rushed, with the hopes of an organization resting on his shoulders. Heck all but 3 Reds starts this season could be considered bumpy.

Benihana
04-21-2010, 02:52 PM
Cueto's control was his calling card in the minors. He supposidly had great control which is why I think he got the edge over Homer. As a major leaguer his control has been dicey at best.

By "got the edge" do you mean Cueto is a much better pitcher in the major leagues? How could that be if "as a major leaguer his control has been dicey at best"?



Fair enough. I have seen many pitchers get by on trickery, luck, and guile to pitch good, if not great games. I have at time seen Homer on the mound completely dominant. An overpowering pitcher with an out pitch that is also only 24 years old I am not giving up on. I don't think the Reds would give up on him either. I though it was ludicrous to see one poster mention trading Homer for pennies on the dollar to send a message to the club.

Yeah, who was that idiot? :evil:



I fully expect Homer to bounce back. Im not making any snap decision on the pitching rotation after 3 starts. Heck if you were doing that 4/5th of the rotation would have been shipped to the pen or traded.

3 starts? Try 3 years. I hope he bounces back. I've been hoping for 3 years and counting...


All a part of the developmental process. He was young, rushed, with the hopes of an organization resting on his shoulders. Heck all but 3 Reds starts this season could be considered bumpy.

All a part of the development process? Can you find me another pitcher that has had as bumpy of a ride over a four year period, and has turned out to be a great success for his original team? Most, like Daniel Cabrera, Brandon Claussen, or Rob Bell, don't ever work out. The ones that do end up putting it together, like Edwin Jackson, do so once they've had a change of scenery- or several.

bucksfan2
04-21-2010, 03:28 PM
By "got the edge" do you mean Cueto is a much better pitcher in the major leagues? How could that be if "as a major leaguer his control has been dicey at best"?

I meant the edge developmentally wise in the minor leagues. IIRC the main reason he made the Reds out of ST 3 years ago was he had a good spring but also a history of great command in the minors. As a major leaguer Cueto's control has been his biggest issue.



All a part of the development process? Can you find me another pitcher that has had as bumpy of a ride over a four year period, and has turned out to be a great success for his original team? Most, like Daniel Cabrera, Brandon Claussen, or Rob Bell, don't ever work out. The ones that do end up putting it together, like Edwin Jackson, do so once they've had a change of scenery- or several.

Dan Haren had two pretty lackluster years as a Cardinal before they traded him. Chris Carpenter put together a pretty meh career in Toronto before being traded. Is it really change of scenery or is it more a team giving up on a player too soon? Sometimes its a different pitching coach that does wonders or a different philosophy or in Bailey's case he went to Rice's? pitching coach and Lehr also taught him a splitter.

Benihana
04-21-2010, 03:40 PM
I meant the edge developmentally wise in the minor leagues. IIRC the main reason he made the Reds out of ST 3 years ago was he had a good spring but also a history of great command in the minors. As a major leaguer Cueto's control has been his biggest issue.

Even with that being the case, he has still outpitched Bailey as a major leaguer by leaps and bounds.



Dan Haren had two pretty lackluster years as a Cardinal before they traded him. Chris Carpenter put together a pretty meh career in Toronto before being traded. Is it really change of scenery or is it more a team giving up on a player too soon? Sometimes its a different pitching coach that does wonders or a different philosophy or in Bailey's case he went to Rice's? pitching coach and Lehr also taught him a splitter.

Dan Haren had a total of 20 starts over 2 years with STL, and still had remarkably better numbers than Bailey. He was also traded for (at the time) a Major League ace.

Chris Carpenter also had significantly better numbers than Bailey through his first three seasons in the big leagues at the same age. And while Carpenter was shaky for a while after that, if a guy hasn't turned it on in 6 seasons, it is probably time to give him (and yourself) a shot to do it somewhere else.

My point is that as far as I can tell, it hasn't happened in the last 20 years. If a guy stinks for 4 years, he will probably never be a good pitcher for that team. We should prepare accordingly.

mth123
04-21-2010, 08:37 PM
I'm with Bucksfan. I think Bailey will be better than Cueto

Benihana
04-21-2010, 11:28 PM
I'm with Bucksfan. I think Bailey will be better than Cueto

You both could be right, as the upside is there. I just think it looks likely at this point that if he does become better than Cueto, it will probably be in another team's uniform.

Would you trade him at this point for Chad Billingsley? I would.

mth123
04-22-2010, 04:27 AM
You both could be right, as the upside is there. I just think it looks likely at this point that if he does become better than Cueto, it will probably be in another team's uniform.

Would you trade him at this point for Chad Billingsley? I would.

For Billingsley straight up, maybe because they are similar. I doubt that the Dodgers would do that.

Why do you think it will take a move to another team?

LoganBuck
04-22-2010, 07:59 AM
Give Bryan Price some time. This guy is an actual respected pitching coach. Lets see what he can do.

Will M
05-01-2010, 01:51 AM
Somehow the Reds are 12-11. The good news is that the starting pitching has been a lot better recently. Thats a big reason we just won 5 in a row!
IMO this team still has a fair number of problems. However, the giant gaping massive Grand Canyon size hole is in left field. Gomes & Nix are bench players. Dickerson is IMO a 4th OF type & will likely be out ~8 weeks.
If somehow someway Walt could scrounge up a left fielder I would feel a lot better about the Reds chances in 2010. Who is going to trade us a left fielder so early in the season? Nobody likely. :( However, if the team took on part of a bad contract from a team needing salary relief it could happen. Without taking on salary I'm not sure how a trade gets done. Maybe we deal an arm when Chapman is ready??

fearofpopvol1
05-01-2010, 02:43 AM
Somehow the Reds are 12-11. The good news is that the starting pitching has been a lot better recently. Thats a big reason we just won 5 in a row!
IMO this team still has a fair number of problems. However, the giant gaping massive Grand Canyon size hole is in left field. Gomes & Nix are bench players. Dickerson is IMO a 4th OF type & will likely be out ~8 weeks.
If somehow someway Walt could scrounge up a left fielder I would feel a lot better about the Reds chances in 2010. Who is going to trade us a left fielder so early in the season? Nobody likely. :( However, if the team took on part of a bad contract from a team needing salary relief it could happen. Without taking on salary I'm not sure how a trade gets done. Maybe we deal an arm when Chapman is ready??

It's still a little early to say the starting pitching is a force, but they do look better. I sort of agree with you though. The tandem of Nix/Gomes is just really unsexy. I'm concerned about Cabrera at SS too though. I'd like to see Janish at least getting some more starts.

I will give Cabrera props tonight though...that defensive play he made in the 7th inning I think or was it the 8th? It was where he blocked the bag and tagged out the runner from Hernandez's throw was absolutely critical for the game.

Benihana
05-01-2010, 08:23 AM
Somehow the Reds are 12-11. The good news is that the starting pitching has been a lot better recently. Thats a big reason we just won 5 in a row!
IMO this team still has a fair number of problems. However, the giant gaping massive Grand Canyon size hole is in left field. Gomes & Nix are bench players. Dickerson is IMO a 4th OF type & will likely be out ~8 weeks.
If somehow someway Walt could scrounge up a left fielder I would feel a lot better about the Reds chances in 2010. Who is going to trade us a left fielder so early in the season? Nobody likely. :( However, if the team took on part of a bad contract from a team needing salary relief it could happen. Without taking on salary I'm not sure how a trade gets done. Maybe we deal an arm when Chapman is ready??

There are a fair amount of FA still out there if the Reds were willing to go that route. Specifically I'm thinking about a guy they were willing to give up Homer Bailey for a little over a year ago.

Will M
05-09-2010, 02:12 PM
From the Boston Globe: David DeJesus, OF, Royals He is more than available for teams needing a lefthanded-hitting outfielder. In return, the Royals would want bullpen help and some sort of a positional prospect. DeJesus gets on base and can drive in the tough run, can play all three outfield positions, and is still young enough (31) to be incorporated in either short- or long-term plans. He earns $4.5 million this season and has a $6 million option for next year.

He wouldn't cost much in terms of money or talent. Would be an upgrade over our current left handed hitting CF/LF outfielders (Nix & Dickerson).
I wanted the Reds to go after this guy last offseason.

mth123
05-09-2010, 02:22 PM
From the Boston Globe: David DeJesus, OF, Royals — He is more than available for teams needing a lefthanded-hitting outfielder. In return, the Royals would want bullpen help and some sort of a positional prospect. DeJesus gets on base and can drive in the tough run, can play all three outfield positions, and is still young enough (31) to be incorporated in either short- or long-term plans. He earns $4.5 million this season and has a $6 million option for next year.

He wouldn't cost much in terms of money or talent. Would be an upgrade over our current left handed hitting CF/LF outfielders (Nix & Dickerson).
I wanted the Reds to go after this guy last offseason.

Ondrusek, Lincoln, Maloney and Frazier for Dejesus.

The Reds desperately need this guy. He's LH, gets on Base and plays one of the spots where we stink. Walt says no one is on the market that could lead-off. I wonder if he's really available.

Joseph
05-09-2010, 02:36 PM
How is DeJesus defensively?

TheNext44
05-09-2010, 03:17 PM
How is DeJesus defensively?

Very good. Could play decent CF, and is excellent in LF. And with Baker as manager, is a perfect fit for the Reds.

OnBaseMachine
05-09-2010, 03:59 PM
Frazier, Maloney, and Ondrusek for DeJesus? No thanks. He's a solid player but he's not worth all that. He's got a career .783 OPS and has never hit more than 13 HR in a season. If he was still a true CF then I could understand giving up that package for him, but he's more of a corner outfielder at this point in his career.

reds44
05-09-2010, 04:01 PM
Nyjer Morgan. I know the Nationals are playing good baseball right now, but they'll die eventually.

He's hitting .274/.344/.425, and he would be a perfect leadoff hitter for teh Dusty. He's also played LF in his career so you could keep Stubbs on the roster and have Morgan LF and Stubbs CF late in games.

mth123
05-09-2010, 04:07 PM
Frazier, Maloney, and Ondrusek for DeJesus? No thanks. He's a solid player but he's not worth all that. He's got a career .783 OPS and has never hit more than 13 HR in a season. If he was still a true CF then I could understand giving up that package for him, but he's more of a corner outfielder at this point in his career.

He's an actual legit major league position player. Add him to a team that only has three or four others and he'd be a big upgrade. I'd have no problem with him in CF.

Frazier, Ondrusek and Maloney all project to be replaceable role players. The Reds don't seem to be able to get guys like Dejesus. Heck they could have any 3 or 4 minor leaguers not named Chapman. Take your pick KC.

reds44
05-09-2010, 04:09 PM
He's an actual legit major league position player. Add him to a team that only has three or four others and he'd be a big upgrade. I'd have no problem with him in CF.

Frazier, Ondrusek and Maloney all project to be replaceable role players. The Reds don't seem to be able to get guys like Dejesus. Heck they could have any 3 or 4 minor leaguers not named Chapman. Take your pick KC.
Agreed, for the most part. I don't think Ondrusek or Maloney (especially Maloney) will be anything in the majors.

Frazier, I'd prefer not to give up, but DeJesus is definatley somebody I would target.

OnBaseMachine
05-09-2010, 04:11 PM
Frazier, Ondrusek and Maloney all project to be replaceable role players. The Reds don't seem to be able to get guys like Dejesus. Heck they could have any 3 or 4 minor leaguers not named Chapman. Take your pick KC.

That's you're opinion though. There are quite a few people out there who think Frazier has a chance to be a very solid everyday player.

mth123
05-09-2010, 04:17 PM
That's you're opinion though. There are quite a few people out there who think Frazier has a chance to be a very solid everyday player.

He'll never be an all star. In GABP and the NL Central, Dejesus may appoximate Johnny Damon.

Will M
05-09-2010, 04:22 PM
if he is truly available i think something like Lincoln, Maloney & Frazier would get it done. heck, maybe we could go Lincoln, Maloney & Francisco.

Royals: save some cash & get the bullpen arm & the prospect they want

Reds: get an honest to goodness major league player without breaking the bank

TheNext44
05-09-2010, 05:26 PM
That's you're opinion though. There are quite a few people out there who think Frazier has a chance to be a very solid everyday player.

I agree with you, but I would still trade him for DeJesus.

Dejesus already is a solid everyday player. One that fills a hole on the Reds and fits the type of player that Dusty knows how to use... speedy leadoff hitter who can get on base.

Money is really the only stumbling block, imo.

11larkin11
05-09-2010, 11:15 PM
Ondrusek and Francisco.

RedsManRick
05-09-2010, 11:20 PM
Ondrusek and Francisco.

This I'd do.

reds44
05-10-2010, 12:17 AM
This I'd do.
In a heartbeat.

Brutus
05-10-2010, 12:26 AM
I view DeJesus in the Scott Rolen capacity - an honest-to-goodness ballplayer that would bring a different element to the Cincinnati Reds.

Guacarock
05-10-2010, 01:11 AM
I really wanted the Reds to go after DeJesus a few years ago, but now I'm not so certain he would be worth the price, either in prospects or salary. Not that he's washed up, but his skills are beginning to erode.

Not only has his OBP dropped a few straight years (from .360+ to the .330 range), but he's slowed down on the base paths and his defense is not what it used to be (hence he's become more a LF than a CF). The Royals moved him into the lead-off slot after he struggled in delivering clutch RBIs.

Would he be an improvement over Dickerson, Nix, Stubbs, Gomes? Probably. Just not an enormous improvement anymore -- as now he's already entering the downside of his career. I'd pass if the Royals were demanding Frazier. For lesser talents, maybe.

nate
05-10-2010, 08:42 AM
I really wanted the Reds to go after DeJesus a few years ago, but now I'm not so certain he would be worth the price, either in prospects or salary. Not that he's washed up, but his skills are beginning to erode.

Not only has his OBP dropped a few straight years (from .360+ to the .330 range), but he's slowed down on the base paths and his defense is not what it used to be (hence he's become more a LF than a CF). The Royals moved him into the lead-off slot after he struggled in delivering clutch RBIs.

Since 2006, amongst players with 500 or more PA, DeJesus drove in the greatest percentage of baserunners of anyone on the Royals. He's still a good player.

His "slowed down," eroding defense and bat is still better than Gomes. Signing a guy like DeJesus pushes Gomes to the bench and into a pinch-hitting role which, I think plays to a strength.

OnBaseMachine
05-10-2010, 11:22 AM
Ondrusek and Francisco.

I would definitely do that.

edabbs44
05-10-2010, 11:26 AM
In a heartbeat.

Would they?

TheNext44
05-10-2010, 01:35 PM
Would they?

It's the Royals. Remember, they traded actual talent for Yuniesky Betancourt and gave big contracts to Kyle Farnsworth and Juan Cruz, even though Cruz was an "A" free agent and cost them a draft pick.

Start by offering them Willie Taveras. They might not notice that he's not on the Reds roster anymore.

HokieRed
05-10-2010, 01:39 PM
I suspect the Royals would happily take Ondrusek and Francisco for DeJesus, though I wouldn't offer anything remotely like that much for a 30 year old corner outfielder with a .783 OPS lifetime and a home run about every 60 plate appearances.

Kc61
05-10-2010, 01:48 PM
I suspect the Royals would happily take Ondrusek and Francisco for DeJesus, though I wouldn't offer anything remotely like that much for a 30 year old corner outfielder with a .783 OPS lifetime and a home run about every 60 plate appearances.

Some RedsZoners don't have a lot of regard for Francisco as a prospect and tend to offer up his name in any trade discussion. I think the Reds feel differently. I hope they do.

Because for all the higher OBP singles and doubles hitters around, you don't just trade power potential like JF's so easily. I wouldn't.

If the Reds are going to trade their top prospects, like Alonso, Frazier, and Francisco, I would package them with major leaguers and get back a star hitter or pitcher. I wouldn't trade them for a "solid" type player like DeJesus.

Benihana
05-10-2010, 02:01 PM
Now you see why I'm so skeptical over Redszoners' propensity to hoard prospects.

I don't know if DeJesus is the right target, but I really don't have a problem trading Frazier, Francisco, Alonso, or basically anyone in the minors not named Chapman if it would give the Reds an above average starter at a position where they need upgrading. That's how you win at the Major League level.

dfs
05-10-2010, 02:10 PM
Now you see why I'm so skeptical over Redszoners' propensity to hoard prospects.

I don't know if DeJesus is the right target, but I really don't have a problem trading Frazier, Francisco, Alonso, or basically anyone in the minors not named Chapman if it would give the Reds an above average starter at a position where they need upgrading. That's how you win at the Major League level.

.....The difference between Jonny Gomes and David Dejesus for Todd Frazier?

really?

Benihana
05-10-2010, 02:32 PM
.....The difference between Jonny Gomes and David Dejesus for Todd Frazier?

really?

I said that I'm not sure DeJesus is the right target. My point is that due to a prolonged culture of losing and only being able to look forward to prospects, many Reds fans have lost perspective on the fact that a prospect is exactly that- a prospect. Many of even the highest rated ones evenwill never be more than average major leaguers, and won't be even that for several years. Every good organization understands that, and every unsuccessful one likes to continue to talk about their prospects.

Will M
05-10-2010, 03:06 PM
.....The difference between Jonny Gomes and David Dejesus for Todd Frazier?

really?

absolutely yes!

2009 WAR:
DeJesus +3.3
Gomes +1.1

2010 WAR (so far):
DeJesus +0.4
Gomes -0.5

Plus DeJesus won't break the bank this year & has a reasonable 2010 option.
Frazier plus one of our middling middle relievers (Lincoln. Ondrusek, Fisher,etc) for DeJesus is a great deal for the Reds. A great deal.

Also remember we aren't dumping Gomes. Just moving him to the bench where he belongs. Once Dickerson returns it pushes Nix (if he doesn't get it going) off the team. Its kinda like adding a closer to a pen without one. We add a closer (DeJesus). The setup guy who was closing (Gomes) can go back to his natural role as a setup guy. One of the middle relievers (Nix) who stunk gets send back to AAA. Adding talent at the TOP of the chain improves the team more than replacing the 25th man.

mth123
05-10-2010, 06:35 PM
Dejesus $4.5 Million is probably too rich for the Reds blood. The Reds will need to include a top 10 prospect to either get some of that covered or to get the Royals to accept Lincoln as the main major league pen arm. A lesser prospect probably means Owings or Herrera instead of Lincoln.

While I'm generally for power in the corners and defense up the middle, Dejesus and his average to below play in CF would still be a huge upgrade over the Reds guys and even with his lack of power, he'd upgrade LF. He'd probably end-up playing a little of both depending on who is pitching for the Reds. Groundball guy? Gomes in LF and Dejesus in CF. Fly Ball Guy? Stubbs in CF and Dejesus in LF.

Homer Bailey
05-10-2010, 06:42 PM
I'm not all that interested in DeJesus, but for the record, I'd be slightly more willing to trade Frazier than I would Francisco. I think JF's ceiling is way higher, and I don't think Frazier has the capability of being a well above average player, and think it is very likely he is a league average player. Nothing to scoff at, but I honestly think that JF has has poor man's Ryan Howard potential with less K's and walks.

RedsManRick
05-10-2010, 06:57 PM
Would they?

Doubt it. But that would be because they'd want a better reliever. I think anchoring a package around Fransisco is a great idea. Maybe you make the pitcher their choice, include Fisher and Owings, and throw in Lincoln for good measure and to offset salary a bit this year.

I agree that JF has a big time ceiling, but I think he also has the highest bust possibilities of any of our top prospects. I'd happily let other prospects get the much needs field time and PA in AAA for the rest of the year.

_Sir_Charles_
05-10-2010, 07:02 PM
Start by offering them Willie Taveras. They might not notice that he's not on the Reds roster anymore.

ROFL! Now that was funny. :O)

Will M
05-10-2010, 07:34 PM
Dejesus $4.5 Million is probably too rich for the Reds blood.

THAT is the problem with the Reds.

RedsManRick
05-10-2010, 08:24 PM
THAT is the problem with the Reds.

The Reds would probably have to balance out the salaries this year, but with the salaries of Harang and Arroyo coming off the books in 2011 and Votto as the only significant arbitration case, it should not be a problem affording DeJesus in 2011.

dfs
05-11-2010, 10:16 AM
absolutely yes!

2009 WAR:
DeJesus +3.3
Gomes +1.1

2010 WAR (so far):
DeJesus +0.4
Gomes -0.5

Plus DeJesus won't break the bank this year & has a reasonable 2010 option.
Frazier plus one of our middling middle relievers (Lincoln. Ondrusek, Fisher,etc) for DeJesus is a great deal for the Reds. A great deal.

Also remember we aren't dumping Gomes. Just moving him to the bench where he belongs. Once Dickerson returns it pushes Nix (if he doesn't get it going) off the team. Its kinda like adding a closer to a pen without one. We add a closer (DeJesus). The setup guy who was closing (Gomes) can go back to his natural role as a setup guy. One of the middle relievers (Nix) who stunk gets send back to AAA. Adding talent at the TOP of the chain improves the team more than replacing the 25th man.

I know you wouldn't be dumping Gomes, but you would be replacing his playing time with DeJesus' playing time and it would cost you Frazier.

I like numbers as much as anybody, but Gomes and DeJesus have the same OPS+ over the last three full seasons, but where DeJesus is another lefty in this lineup, in murdering lefties, Gomes filles a need on the roster. DeJesus...not so much.
I'll gladly grant you that DeJesus is gonna be better on the basepaths and in the field and that is worth something. Is it worth Frazier?

I guess you could platoon them. ...but that seems a waste. You could play DeJesus in center and bury Stubbs, but that doesn't seem like an organizational plan either.

Todd Frazier for roster depth? The cost just seems high to me, but you're right this is absolutely the kind of deal Walt did with Rolen.

Will M
05-11-2010, 02:38 PM
I know you wouldn't be dumping Gomes, but you would be replacing his playing time with DeJesus' playing time and it would cost you Frazier.

I like numbers as much as anybody, but Gomes and DeJesus have the same OPS+ over the last three full seasons, but where DeJesus is another lefty in this lineup, in murdering lefties, Gomes filles a need on the roster. DeJesus...not so much.
I'll gladly grant you that DeJesus is gonna be better on the basepaths and in the field and that is worth something. Is it worth Frazier?

I guess you could platoon them. ...but that seems a waste. You could play DeJesus in center and bury Stubbs, but that doesn't seem like an organizational plan either.

Todd Frazier for roster depth? The cost just seems high to me, but you're right this is absolutely the kind of deal Walt did with Rolen.

i believe DeJesus is a better left fielder than Gomes because DeJesus is a plus defender in LF & Gomes is close to a DH. so offensively they may be about the same but DeJesus's defense makes him a fairly big upgrade

its possible that where we differ is on the value of Frazier. IMO Chapman is an untouchable prospect. Everyone else in the organization is not. they are all just prospects. i suspect that if you looked scientifically at all the guys who were similar to Frazier in AA/AAA over the years you would find a lot of guys who never amounted to anything. Sure there are guys like Jeff Kent or Mark DeRosa but I suspect there are many more so so players & guys who never amounted to anything in the pros. thats why i would trade him for DeJesus. DeJesus is an everyday major league left fielder who is signed to a fairly cheap deal. Frazier is a 'B' level prospect. now i know a lot of posters disagree with me on this issue. they see Frazier as a guy who can play 3B & OPS .800 all the while being under Red's control for 6 years.

Benihana
05-12-2010, 04:30 PM
From today's chat on MLBTR:



[Comment From JohnnyJohnny: ]
When should Dayton Moore pull the trigger on trading David DeJesus? What kind of prospect could they get for him?


He probably has to wait at least a month to let a market develop. Maybe Moore can get a Charlie Morton-ish guy, a mildly interesting prospect who needs a better opportunity.


I'm telling you: any hitting prospect and any reliever in our system right now for David DeJesus and Alex Gordon. It appears the Royals could be ready, and it would be an amazing deal for the Reds.

Yonder Alonso & Jordan Smith? Todd Frazier & Logan Ondrusek? Juan Francisco & Nick Masset? Chris Heisey & Carlos Fisher?
Done, done, done, and done!

reds44
05-12-2010, 04:53 PM
A Charlie Mortonish type prospect?

As in Matt Maloney?

RedsManRick
05-12-2010, 04:56 PM
A Charlie Mortonish type prospect?

As in Matt Maloney?

That's exactly what I thought when I read that. They can move him in to the rotation immediately to save some face with fans. You throw in Ondrusek or Fisher if need be.

Considering he's just a league average type player signed for 1 more year, it shouldn't take a top 100 prospect to land him.

reds44
05-12-2010, 05:00 PM
That's exactly what I thought when I read that. They can move him in to the rotation immediately to save some face with fans. You throw in Ondrusek or Fisher if need be.

Considering he's just a league average type player signed for 1 more year, it shouldn't take a top 100 prospect to land him.
I'd do Maloney for DeJesus right now and not think twice, even if it took Fisher or Ondrusek.

Benihana
05-12-2010, 05:25 PM
I'd do Maloney for DeJesus right now and not think twice, even if it took Fisher or Ondrusek.

Agreed, but I'd look to expand it in order to buy low on Gordon if I could. Maybe Maloney, Heisey, and Fisher/Ondrusek is what gets it done. Play Gordon in LF and DeJesus in CF until Rolen goes down, when you move Gordon to 3B, DeJesus to LF, and reinsert Stubbs or Dickerson in CF.

DeJesus CF
Phillips 2B
Votto 1B
Rolen 3B
Bruce RF
Gordon LF
Cabrera SS
Hernanigan C

TRF
05-12-2010, 05:37 PM
Agreed, but I'd look to expand it in order to buy low on Gordon if I could. Maybe Maloney, Heisey, and Fisher/Ondrusek is what gets it done. Play Gordon in LF and DeJesus in CF until Rolen goes down, when you move Gordon to 3B, DeJesus to LF, and reinsert Stubbs or Dickerson in CF.

DeJesus CF
Phillips 2B
Votto 1B
Rolen 3B
Bruce RF
Gordon LF
Cabrera SS
Hernanigan C

That trade wouldn't work. Not in a million years would it be considered. Here is why: The GM would be disrespecting his 25 man roster. Gomes has been hot lately, you do not replace him in LF with a failed (somewhat) 3B. Stubbs has been very good defensively in CF, and as a bottom of the order hitter, he's getting better. As the #7 hitter this year: .320 .393 .360 .753 He needs to hit for more power, but he's slowly getting there.

Gordon might be a good target alone, but I doubt the Reds make any trade for both that didn't include shipping out Gomes or Nix. I don't think either guy would get released outright.

OnBaseMachine
05-12-2010, 05:44 PM
The Reds definitely need to find a better left handed bat to pair with Gomes in LF. Gomes is fine vs LHP but he shouldn't be starting against RHP. Laynce Nix has a career .725 OPS vs RHP, that's not nearly good enough to be the LH platoon bat. If I was Walt Jocketty, I would be looking to upgrade in left field.

edabbs44
05-12-2010, 05:50 PM
The Reds definitely need to find a better left handed bat to pair with Gomes in LF. Gomes is fine vs LHP but he shouldn't be starting against RHP. Laynce Nix is has a career .725 OPS vs RHP, that's not nearly good enough to be the LH platoon bat. If I was Walt Jocketty, I would be looking to upgrade in left field.

If this is possible, it will probably take place more towards the deadline than right now. Prices are probably sky high right now, if there are any prices at all.

Benihana
05-12-2010, 06:14 PM
That trade wouldn't work. Not in a million years would it be considered. Here is why: The GM would be disrespecting his 25 man roster. Gomes has been hot lately, you do not replace him in LF with a failed (somewhat) 3B. Stubbs has been very good defensively in CF, and as a bottom of the order hitter, he's getting better. As the #7 hitter this year: .320 .393 .360 .753 He needs to hit for more power, but he's slowly getting there.

Gordon might be a good target alone, but I doubt the Reds make any trade for both that didn't include shipping out Gomes or Nix. I don't think either guy would get released outright.

Jonny Gomes? He of the sub .700 OPS? I don't think it would be "disrespectful" to send him to the bench, or at least have him platoon with the lefty hitting Gordon- who has much better splits against righties.

If he is "failed" when he is the same age (26) and has a considerably higher career OPS at both the minor and major league levels than Drew Stubbs, then what the hell does that make Stubbs- who you claim "is slowly getting there" despite carrying an OPS 200 points lower than last year's with now almost the same sample size?

If the Reds include Nix in the trade, so be it. He won't be missed. I'd offer them Gomes in the trade if they were so inclined as well, and bring up Balentien to be the other half of the platoon, if there was one.

As for Stubbs, of course he is very good defensively- that has never been the issue. But I'd like to see him at least get over the Mendoza line before I'm ready to say he's earned his spot in the everyday lineup.

Will M
05-12-2010, 09:22 PM
Agreed, but I'd look to expand it in order to buy low on Gordon if I could. Maybe Maloney, Heisey, and Fisher/Ondrusek is what gets it done. Play Gordon in LF and DeJesus in CF until Rolen goes down, when you move Gordon to 3B, DeJesus to LF, and reinsert Stubbs or Dickerson in CF.

DeJesus CF
Phillips 2B
Votto 1B
Rolen 3B
Bruce RF
Gordon LF
Cabrera SS
Hernanigan C

i don't think DeJesus is very good in CF at this point in his career.

i actaually like the idea of trading for DeJesus & Gordon.
if the cost was Heisey/Frazier & Ondrusek/Fisher/etc I'd do it. immediately.

DeJesus plays LF. This pushes Gomes to the bench where he belongs along with Nix or Dickerson. Gomes & Nix/Dickerson are perfectly solid 4th & 5th outfielders.

Gordon replaces Cairo who has no value. the hope would be that Gordon may have some value as a guy who could play 3B/1B/LF. i certainly think the Royals won't be asking for a lot to throw him in on the deal & he could have upside. will he ever be worth what the Royals thought when they drafted him #2 overall? not even close. could he evolve into a bench/platoon player? possibly.

reds44
05-12-2010, 10:13 PM
Do the Royals have any reason to trade Alex Gordon at such low value? Did they sign him to some big contract that I am unaware of? Is he out of options? Look at the trades you guys are talking about, they just don't seem realistic.

Maloney and a reliever for DeJesus seems to be the asking price right about now. DeJesus could play vsRHP in LF right away, and provide insurance in case Drew Stubbs really can't hit.

I just don't know how realistic adding Gordon in the deal is.

Will M
05-12-2010, 11:08 PM
Do the Royals have any reason to trade Alex Gordon at such low value? Did they sign him to some big contract that I am unaware of? Is he out of options? Look at the trades you guys are talking about, they just don't seem realistic.

Maloney and a reliever for DeJesus seems to be the asking price right about now. DeJesus could play vsRHP in LF right away, and provide insurance in case Drew Stubbs really can't hit.

I just don't know how realistic adding Gordon in the deal is.

the Royals sent Gordon to AAA. it seems they are 'done' with him & ready to move on. they have already awarded 3B to another prospect & i believe are trying Gordon in LF in AAA. thats why i believe he can be tossed into a DeJesus trade. i don't think he would hold up any deal if the Reds asked for him.

on the flip side if the Royals balk at adding him that shouldn't hold up any trade from the Reds standpoint. DeJesus for Maloney & RP? done. for Heisey & Fisher? done. adding an everyday left fielder for some spare parts would help the 2010 (and 2011) team greatly

TheNext44
05-12-2010, 11:16 PM
Do the Royals have any reason to trade Alex Gordon at such low value? Did they sign him to some big contract that I am unaware of? Is he out of options? Look at the trades you guys are talking about, they just don't seem realistic.

Maloney and a reliever for DeJesus seems to be the asking price right about now. DeJesus could play vsRHP in LF right away, and provide insurance in case Drew Stubbs really can't hit.

I just don't know how realistic adding Gordon in the deal is.

It's the Royals. Anything is possible. Shoot for the stars when dealing with them.

Benihana
05-12-2010, 11:39 PM
It's the Royals. Anything is possible. Shoot for the stars when dealing with them.

Greinke's on pace to lose 20 games, right? Maybe we can take him off of their hands while we're at it. :p:

Guacarock
05-13-2010, 12:02 AM
He might be a lesser light than Lance, but the Astros' switch-hitting Geoff Blum would be a good fit for our bench. He primarily plays 1B and 3B, but he can handle 2B, SS and the OF in a pinch. He's got decent power (10 HR last year in 381 ABs), but he's no hacker and currently is sporting a .350 OBP in 58 ABs this season, mostly subbing for Berkman while Lance was on the DL.

If we're still in the hunt a month or so from now, I'd like to see the Reds target someone like Blum as an upgrade over Cairo. His $1.5 million salary won't break the bank, and acquiring him ought to be fairly painless prospect-wise.

With Blum on board, we wouldn't have to play Hernandez at 1B, so Ramon could just focus on catching in tandem with Hanigan. Janish would become our primary MI backup, with Blum taking care of the infield corners whenever Rolen or Votto needed a rest.

If we like what we see, we can renew Blum's option for '11 or we can let him walk if it appears Francisco or Frazier can step forward.

Might be a baby step compared to working out a deal for DeJesus, but DeJesus' dwindling OBP over the past three seasons and his .171 BA with 2 R and 1 RBI so far this May lead me to question whether he's still a premier difference maker in the outfield. Small sample size, certainly, but the trends aren't favorable and they bear monitoring.

Will M
05-13-2010, 02:09 AM
He might be a lesser light than Lance, but the Astros' switch-hitting Geoff Blum would be a good fit for our bench. He primarily plays 1B and 3B, but he can handle 2B, SS and the OF in a pinch. He's got decent power (10 HR last year in 381 ABs), but he's no hacker and currently is sporting a .350 OBP in 58 ABs this season, mostly subbing for Berkman while Lance was on the DL.

If we're still in the hunt a month or so from now, I'd like to see the Reds target someone like Blum as an upgrade over Cairo. His $1.5 million salary won't break the bank, and acquiring him ought to be fairly painless prospect-wise.

With Blum on board, we wouldn't have to play Hernandez at 1B, so Ramon could just focus on catching in tandem with Hanigan. Janish would become our primary MI backup, with Blum taking care of the infield corners whenever Rolen or Votto needed a rest.

If we like what we see, we can renew Blum's option for '11 or we can let him walk if it appears Francisco or Frazier can step forward.

Might be a baby step compared to working out a deal for DeJesus, but DeJesus' dwindling OBP over the past three seasons and his .171 BA with 2 R and 1 RBI so far this May lead me to question whether he's still a premier difference maker in the outfield. Small sample size, certainly, but the trends aren't favorable and they bear monitoring.

i prefer just about anyone over Cairo. he just doesn't have it anymore.
your suggestion of Blum is a good one. we really need someone on the bench to play a little 1B/3B. maybe we can get Kep back (i'm actually serious about this). the other thing is hopefully Frazier continues to play better & could get a mid season call up.

i'd prefer getting both a real left fielder & a bench upgrade.

Scrap Irony
05-13-2010, 04:41 PM
A bench guy is not only realistic, but a great idea.

Others to target would be guys like the O's Wiggington, maybe the Cubs' Nady (if they decide to deal within the division).

Little ABs might decide big races.

Will M
05-13-2010, 07:50 PM
A bench guy is not only realistic, but a great idea.

Others to target would be guys like the O's Wiggington, maybe the Cubs' Nady (if they decide to deal within the division).

Little ABs might decide big races.

Votto, Phillips & Bruce have played 34/34 games. Rolen: 30/34 games.
Cabrera: 31/34 games

if Votto & Bruce play 162 games it wouldn't bother me. they are young & their skillsets don't rely a lot on speed.

the fact that Rolen has played 30 out of 34 games is suprising considering his recent medical history. the team could really use someone to play 3B occasionally.

I suspect Phillips & Cabrera could use a day off now & then. compared to a big guy who plays a power position these guys are smaller & rely more on quickness. Janish can fill in for Cabrera but I wouldn't want to see Janish filling in for Phillips (need more offense from the 2B position).

it would seem that a guy who could play 2B/3B (& maybe fill in at 1B if Votto was sick) is something the team lacks. it hasn't hurt us yet but we are still only 34 games into a 162 game season.

wolfboy
05-13-2010, 08:06 PM
it would seem that a guy who could play 2B/3B (& maybe fill in at 1B if Votto was sick) is something the team lacks. it hasn't hurt us yet but we are still only 34 games into a 162 game season.

Rich Aurilia! :beerme:

schroomytunes
05-13-2010, 08:47 PM
Yeah I like the Blum idea, but I think the Astros will want to rape us on the prospects. Now another guy I like who could be had alot cheaper and is a solid corner backup guy is Wes Helms. His contract is under 1 million and would cost us say Carlos Fisher.

westofyou
05-14-2010, 09:54 AM
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&page=rumblings100513



Lance-ing with the stars: Two weeks ago, we quoted a friend of Lance Berkman as saying he thought Berkman had no interest in waiving his no-trade clause to exit Houston. So after Berkman said last week he'd be "open" to a deal, we asked the same friend for his reaction.

"Lance doesn't want to go anywhere," the friend said, then laughed. "Would he go somewhere for two months with a chance to win? Like I said before, absolutely. But I think he forgets he's got [a club] option. So it might not be two months. He might be gone for a year and two months.

"So unless the club wants to agree not to pick up the option or something, that's the only way I'd see him waiving it. But then, if you take that away, and it's only for two months, why would anybody give anything up for him? That's why I say he's not going anywhere."

Hmmm. All excellent points. Not to mention the fact his owner, Drayton McLane, has never shown any inclination to trade away players like Berkman or Roy Oswalt in July before. So what makes anyone believe this is the year?

buckeyenut
05-14-2010, 05:10 PM
Any chance we could go after Nick Markakis from Baltimore? He is signed to a fairly big deal (although managable if we wanted it). Baltimore is out of it already. He is 3rd highest player on team.

Him, Grady Sizemore, David DeJesus, Franklin Guttierez are probably the guys I would target from the teams at the bottom of the standings. I know Markakis and Guttierez would be really tough sells, but why not try?

membengal
05-14-2010, 05:44 PM
Any chance we could go after Nick Markakis from Baltimore? He is signed to a fairly big deal (although managable if we wanted it). Baltimore is out of it already. He is 3rd highest player on team.

Him, Grady Sizemore, David DeJesus, Franklin Guttierez are probably the guys I would target from the teams at the bottom of the standings. I know Markakis and Guttierez would be really tough sells, but why not try?

Hey, moved to Baltimore last August, and it's a nice idea. I can't fathom Baltimore dealing Markakis, given how much Markakis is liked by the few remaining Orioles fans. That said, Markakis is exactly who the O's should deal, and it would take a real price to get him I would think. Feel like dealing Chapman, Alonso, Stubbs and maybe one other? That might get the O's thinking.

buckeyenut
05-14-2010, 06:17 PM
Hey, moved to Baltimore last August, and it's a nice idea. I can't fathom Baltimore dealing Markakis, given how much Markakis is liked by the few remaining Orioles fans. That said, Markakis is exactly who the O's should deal, and it would take a real price to get him I would think. Feel like dealing Chapman, Alonso, Stubbs and maybe one other? That might get the O's thinking.
Chapman won't get dealt, but I would consider (strongly) dealing Maloney, Alonso, Stubbs and another piece for Markakis. Probably not Frazier or Wood, but likely anyone else.