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View Full Version : Mike Leake predictions, Round 2



Brutus
04-12-2010, 01:21 PM
OK we're going to take OBM's first thread to another level and have a bit more fun with it.

Instead of predicting what Leake will do on Friday against the Pirates in his second start, we're going to nail down an exact prediction contest.

Using the Bill James "game score" formula, we'll see who correctly predicts Leake's performance to the closest score.

Post the following information:

IP
HA
BB
K
ER
UER

To configure your prediction score, start with 50 points.

Add 1 point for every out (i.e. 3 points for a complete inning, 2 for 2/3 etc.)
Add 2 points extra for every complete inning after the 4th
Add 1 point for every strikeout
Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed
Subtract 1 point for each walk issued
Subtract 4 points for each earned run
Subtract 2 points for each unearned run

The total is the game score.

-------------------------

My prediction:

7 IP
5 HA
1 BB
7 K
2 ER
1 UR

Score 50 + 21 (7 IP * 3) + 6 (2 * 3 IP past 4th) + 7 (K) - 10 (2 * 5 HA) - 1 (BB) - 8 (2 ER * 4) - 2 (1 UR * 2) =

Brutus' game score = 63

--------------------

Predictions:

Medford (69)
Brutus the Pimp (63)
GoReds (60)
RedsManRick (48)

RedsManRick
04-12-2010, 01:35 PM
6 IP, 7 H, 2 BB, 4 K, 3 ER, 0 UER

Add 1 point for every out (i.e. 3 points for a complete inning, 2 for 2/3 etc.): 18
Add 2 points extra for every complete inning after the 4th: 4
Add 1 point for every strikeout: 4
Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed: 14
Subtract 1 point for each walk issued: 2
Subtract 4 points for each earned run: 12
Subtract 2 points for each unearned run: 0

Game Score = 48

medford
04-12-2010, 01:58 PM
7 IP, 4H, 2BB, 6K, 1 ER, 0 UER

Add 1 point for every out (i.e. 3 points for a complete inning, 2 for 2/3 etc.): 21
Add 2 points extra for every complete inning after the 4th: 6
Add 1 point for every strikeout: 6
Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed: 8
Subtract 1 point for each walk issued: 2
Subtract 4 points for each earned run: 4
Subtract 2 points for each unearned run: 0

Game Score = 69

GoReds
04-12-2010, 02:11 PM
6.1 IP, 6H, 3BB, 5K, 3ER, 0UER

Game Score = 60

Degenerate39
04-12-2010, 03:27 PM
Ip 6
ha 4
bb 3
k 8
er 1
uer 0

TRF
04-12-2010, 03:42 PM
5IP
6H
6BB
6K
4ER

I started to do the gamescore math but was distracted by water balloons.

And lets hope i am real wrong.

RedEye
04-14-2010, 10:42 PM
5.1 IP, 8 H, 1 BB, 4 K, 3 ER

50
+ 1 point for every out (i.e. 3 points for a complete inning, 2 for 2/3 etc.) - 66
+ 2 points extra for every complete inning after the 4th - 68
+ 1 point for every strikeout - 72
- 2 points for each hit allowed - 58
- 1 point for each walk issued - 57
- 4 points for each earned run - 43
- 2 points for each unearned run - 43

Game Score = 43

Brutus
04-14-2010, 10:52 PM
Medford (69)
Degenerate39 (69)
Brutus the Pimp (63)
GoReds (60)
Will M (57)
RedsManRick (48)
RedEye (43)
TRF (39)

Will M
04-14-2010, 10:56 PM
IP 6.1
HA 5
BB 1
K 3
ER 2
UER 0

game score: 57

TheNext44
04-15-2010, 02:14 AM
IP 6.2
HA 9
BB 1
K 5
ER 4
UER 0

50

+ 1 point for every out (i.e. 3 points for a complete inning, 2 for 2/3 etc.) - 70
+ 2 points extra for every complete inning after the 4th - 72
+ 1 point for every strikeout - 77
- 2 points for each hit allowed - 59
- 1 point for each walk issued - 58
- 4 points for each earned run - 42
- 2 points for each unearned run - 42

42

I flunked math, so I think that's the right number.

Topcat
04-15-2010, 05:11 AM
6 ip,6 hits, 2 earned runs. 5 k's, 3 walks

mth123
04-15-2010, 06:42 AM
Nevermind

reds1869
04-15-2010, 07:24 AM
7.1 IP
6 HA
3 BB
5 K
2 ER
0 UER

Game Score=62

Cedric
04-15-2010, 08:19 AM
Against a pretty good lineup? I'd say 6 IP of 3 ER.

Ghosts of 1990
04-15-2010, 09:48 AM
5 1/3ip
9 ha
3 bb
3 k
4 er
0 uer

Hoosier Red
04-15-2010, 10:57 AM
Against a pretty good lineup? I'd say 6 IP of 3 ER.

Nah, against the Pirates.

Brutus
04-15-2010, 11:30 AM
Medford (69)
Degenerate39 (69)
Brutus the Pimp (63)
GoReds (60)
Will M (57)
reds1869 (57)
Topcat (52)
RedsManRick (48)
RedEye (43)
TheNext44 (42)
TRF (39)
JayBruce32 (33)

Cedric
04-15-2010, 11:34 AM
Nah, against the Pirates.

Duh. Today is 4 days from Sunday.

thatcoolguy_22
04-16-2010, 05:52 AM
Post the following information:

6 IP
6 HA
1 BB
4 K
2 ER
0 UER


55 Gamescore

Brutus
04-16-2010, 08:08 PM
Medford (69)
Degenerate39 (69)
Brutus the Pimp (63)
GoReds (60)
Will M (57)
reds1869 (57)
thatcoolguy_22 (55)
Topcat (52)
RedsManRick (48)
RedEye (43)
TheNext44 (42)
TRF (39)
JayBruce32 (33)

Last chance to get predictions in!

TheNext44
04-16-2010, 10:40 PM
I believe the RedsManRick is the winner. But he's good at math, so that's kinda like cheating.

HokieRed
04-16-2010, 10:50 PM
We should predict how long it will take until we see the "I'm losing confidence in Mike Leake thread."

Redmachine2003
04-16-2010, 10:53 PM
Leake now leads the Majors in walks allowed. Ouch. The amazing part is that his pitch counts are still good. Heres to hoping he gets his walk total down.

CTA513
04-16-2010, 10:57 PM
The walks are the only bad thing I've seen from him so far.

Brutus
04-16-2010, 11:07 PM
RedsManRick (48) is in fact the closest to Leake's score (46).

Way to go! Your imaginary Leake bobblehead shall be arriving shortly.

OnBaseMachine
04-16-2010, 11:29 PM
Another impressive start by Leake - 7 innings, 7 hits, 3 runs, 5 BB, 3 K. Also had 12 groundouts to only 4 flyballs. Really, it could have only been one run allowed, two at the most. The defense - or lack there of - by Cabrera and Cairo killed him. The amount of walks is very surprising but control isn't something I see him struggling with in his career. He'll get better in that department, IMO.

Homer Bailey
04-16-2010, 11:32 PM
I think it would be crazy to ignore the 12 BB in 13.2 innings...... It might get ugly very soon.

Brutus
04-16-2010, 11:41 PM
I think it would be crazy to ignore the 12 BB in 13.2 innings...... It might get ugly very soon.

For me, I am not even remotely concerned by the walks. First, he's getting pinched a bit by the umpires. Second, when he does walk someone, he responds to them without compounding his mistakes. Third, despite all the walks, he's been amazingly pitch efficient - a sign of someone with good control.

I really don't see the walks being sustained or becoming an issue.

RedEye
04-16-2010, 11:42 PM
Darn! Missed a tie by one point! Congrats, RMR.

TheNext44
04-16-2010, 11:42 PM
I think it would be crazy to ignore the 12 BB in 13.2 innings...... It might get ugly very soon.

Those will get cut in half once umps stop giving him the "rookie" strike zone. If he was Greg Maddux, he might not have any so far, pitching exactly the same.

RedsManRick
04-17-2010, 12:10 AM
RedsManRick (48) is in fact the closest to Leake's score (46).

Way to go! Your imaginary Leake bobblehead shall be arriving shortly.

Woohoo!

TheNext44
04-17-2010, 12:30 AM
Woohoo!

I believe this was Raisor's first step towards winning all of his awards. ;)

fearofpopvol1
04-17-2010, 01:55 AM
At least he cut down the walks by 2 this game. I did not feel like this ump was squeezing him either during this game (unlike his start against the cubs). He threw a lot of balls.

Impressed with his makeup though. But I think he would've benefited from spending some time in the minors first.

Caveat Emperor
04-17-2010, 02:29 AM
Walks are concerning, but they haven't killed him yet. I don't many pitchers that can survive issuing as many free passes as he has the last two games.

He did cut them down a bit this game, which is good.

reds1869
04-17-2010, 11:54 AM
At least he cut down the walks by 2 this game. I did not feel like this ump was squeezing him either during this game (unlike his start against the cubs). He threw a lot of balls.

Impressed with his makeup though. But I think he would've benefited from spending some time in the minors first.

He could not develop any better in the minors than up here. I think the Reds made a good decision. He has been solid and will only get better. Leake is clearly one of our best starters and deserves to be in the rotation.

Brutus
04-17-2010, 12:02 PM
Walks are concerning, but they haven't killed him yet. I don't many pitchers that can survive issuing as many free passes as he has the last two games.

He did cut them down a bit this game, which is good.

Agreed. It's not that he will be able to get away with issuing that many free passes, I just really don't think he'll continue to walk guys at that rate.

REDblooded
04-17-2010, 01:34 PM
The walks will come down once he stops receiving the rookie treatment from the umps... Not to mention the strong possibility that his control is a bit off due to nerves. I also believe Leake will need a bit of an adjustment to pitching in this type of climate. He's from Cali and pitched in Arizona. Arizona is a dry climate and you're not going to get as much movement on your pitches as you will throwing in higher humidity and windier conditions like he'll face in most of the Central cities. Of course, this is complete supposition coming from somebody that didn't get to watch last nights game due to living in Indianapolis and only getting to watch about 1/2 of the Reds games on FSMW...

Joseph
04-17-2010, 01:51 PM
very nifty thread idea BTP. look forward to more in the future.

fearofpopvol1
04-17-2010, 05:53 PM
He could not develop any better in the minors than up here. I think the Reds made a good decision. He has been solid and will only get better. Leake is clearly one of our best starters and deserves to be in the rotation.

That's definitely not true. While there are certainly advantages to learning at the MLB level, he could have benefited from some time at AAA.

reds1869
04-17-2010, 07:23 PM
That's definitely not true. While there are certainly advantages to learning at the MLB level, he could have benefited from some time at AAA.

He would face inferior opponents at AA and get away with mistakes that would be punished in the bigs. He is so polished mechanically and mentally that I see very little benefit from pitching in AAA.