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View Full Version : Homer Bailey: If this keeps up, what to do?



Caveat Emperor
04-15-2010, 02:09 PM
Homer Bailey has opened the year with two consecutive starts that would generously be described as "below expectations." He's incredibly pitch inefficient, and he's having a difficult time putting hitters away even when he does get ahead of them. As a result, he's walked and hit as many as he's struck out, and he's averaging two baserunners per inning. Thus far, he's looked much like the Homer Bailey we know and love from previous years, and nothing like the guy who dominated a lot of teams with questionable talent level and incentive to win down the stretch last year.

Homer's also out of options.

Question of the day -- with the understanding that two starts hardly a season makes -- is how much of a leash does Homer get, and if things don't improve, what do you do with Mr. Bailey? Keep running him out there and hope that he figures it out, move him out to the bullpen to take Micah Owings' spot as the long man, or DFA him and hope some team is willing to give something for him in return?

reds1869
04-15-2010, 02:11 PM
I give him the entire season to see how things pan out, then I revisit the question in September. By then we will know what the club truly has with him.

lollipopcurve
04-15-2010, 02:16 PM
Question of the day -- with the understanding that two starts hardly a season makes -- is how much of a leash does Homer get, and if things don't improve, what do you do with Mr. Bailey? Keep running him out there and hope that he figures it out, move him out to the bullpen to take Micah Owings' spot as the long man, or DFA him and hope some team is willing to give something for him in return?

A. Perhaps you do not recall how he pitched at the end of 2009?

One of the problems of not having watched legitimate pitching prospects for so long is that we Reds fans have no idea how to react when they don't pitch well.

RedsManRick
04-15-2010, 02:19 PM
Give him time. If he had back to back starts like this in July, nobody would be asking what we do about him. I know he's been in the org for a long time, but he's not even 24 yet (he will be in May). If you have to pull him out of the rotation, you put him in the bullpen. In any event, there's no way you DFA him.

Falls City Beer
04-15-2010, 02:22 PM
I give him the entire season to see how things pan out, then I revisit the question in September. By then we will know what the club truly has with him.

Probably. I think this team wants to win this year, but no way they're better than the Cards, Rockies, or Braves. I have no problem tinkering this season, but yeah, this should be Bailey's last MLB tryout with the Reds.

This team's starting, again--just as I said--is not very good at all. Other teams' young arms are light years ahead of ours: Hanson, Jimenez, Jurrjens. Heck, Brad Penny would be the Reds' ace.

LincolnparkRed
04-15-2010, 02:27 PM
why does Harang get a pass from Hal? It's not like he has been lights out, or Cueto for that matter.

I think Hal has had an ax to grind with Homer for the last couple of years. Homer must have not given him an exclusive

Caveat Emperor
04-15-2010, 02:27 PM
A. Perhaps you do not recall how he pitched at the end of 2009?

One of the problems of not having watched legitimate pitching prospects for so long is that we Reds fans have no idea how to react when they don't pitch well.

Sure I do -- but I also recall that he pitched against the Pirates (or whatever AAAA squad was playing in Pittsburgh at the time) something like 4 or 5 times down the stretch. More than a few people cautioned, at the time, that any good feelings people were having about Homer had to be tempered slightly with the fact that September numbers often lie.

And really, the thrust of what I'm talking about here is more projection than anything else. Bailey is unbelievably talented, and I have no doubt that he could turn things around in his next start and never look back. I'm looking down the road if the trends we're seeing early on continue. It's a "What If?" worst-case scenario kind of thing.

Can the team (and the bullpen) afford to carry a guy who's a 5 inning, 4 ER guy for an extended period of time?

membengal
04-15-2010, 02:29 PM
If it were me, he gets the season, unless he is just indescribably awful by the end of May.

OnBaseMachine
04-15-2010, 02:30 PM
If it were me, he gets the season, unless he is just indescribably awful by the end of May.

Agreed.

Falls City Beer
04-15-2010, 02:30 PM
Sure I do -- but I also recall that he pitched against the Pirates (or whatever AAAA squad was playing in Pittsburgh at the time) something like 4 or 5 times down the stretch. More than a few people cautioned, at the time, that any good feelings people were having about Homer had to be tempered slightly with the fact that September numbers often lie.

And really, the thrust of what I'm talking about here is more projection than anything else. Bailey is unbelievably talented, and I have no doubt that he could turn things around in his next start and never look back. I'm looking down the road if the trends we're seeing early on continue. It's a "What If?" worst-case scenario kind of thing.

Can the team (and the bullpen) afford to carry a guy who's a 5 inning, 4 ER guy for an extended period of time?

I'd rather let Bailey take the lumps that they'd likely thrust Chapman to face otherwise. Bailey's ceiling is demonstrably lower. He's up to start for good this season, whether he improves or not, imo.

Caveat Emperor
04-15-2010, 02:35 PM
This team's starting, again--just as I said--is not very good at all. Other teams' young arms are light years ahead of ours: Hanson, Jimenez, Jurrjens. Heck, Brad Penny would be the Reds' ace.

I think if you offered the Cardinals Harang or Arroyo for Penny straight up (if the money was equaled out), they'd jump on the deal and scream "No takebacks" on their way home to St. Louis. But, that's just a guess on my part.

And while other teams have better established starters, I like the potential mix of the Reds team. I think Chapman has a good shot to be better than any of the three you listed, and I like at least one of the "group" of Wood, Leake, and Bailey to break out to a good #2/#3 type guy. I'm lower on Leake than a lot of people here, but a lot of someones saw a lot of something in him last year and in the spring.

And, really, the forgotten man here is Edinson Volquez, who was dominant when he was healthy. Given the way TJ's are done these days, we have no reason to think he won't come back in the same shape he left.

camisadelgolf
04-15-2010, 02:36 PM
There's no way I'd give up on him--the guy is only 23 years old. I'd be willing to put him in the bullpen until things start to come together. Who would take his spot in the rotation? I'm open to Owings having it for a while, but I also wouldn't mind optioning Ondrusek and calling up Wood.

reds44
04-15-2010, 02:39 PM
He's given up some absurd amount of baserunners this year. His career ERA is north of 5.50. You give him time right now, but a deicision is going to have to be made when either Volquez comes back or Chapman is ready.

Brutus
04-15-2010, 02:41 PM
Bailey did face the Pirates four times in the last two months of the season, but he also had real good games against the Dodgers, Marlins, Rockies and Cardinals in that same timeframe - three playoff teams and another that was in the race until late in the season.

I'm still mildly concerned about his consistency, but I also think there was nothing to downplay about his performance last season. I do think it was legitimately something to be encouraged over. He definitely hasn't had his good stuff yet this year, but I'll be much more concerned if we're still talking about it after 8-10 starts.

Danny Serafini
04-15-2010, 02:41 PM
Unless he goes all Josh Fogg on us he's getting the ball every 5th day. Every pitcher has a stretch during the season where they struggle, you have to let them work their way through it. It'll take a few awful months, not an awful week, to dislodge him.

Strikes Out Looking
04-15-2010, 02:42 PM
. Other teams' young arms are light years ahead of ours: Hanson, Jimenez, Jurrjens. Heck, Brad Penny would be the Reds' ace.

Yes, Jurrjens has been lights out! He couldn't even make it out of the fourth inning the other night in San Diego.

The Reds pitchers have started out just fine--not perfect, but they are consistently getting into the sixth inning and keeping the game close. They've played 9 games so far, and won 5 of them.

I give Homer at least ten starts before I really worry about him. The Reds still have Wood, Chapman and Maloney at AAA and Edison may be back in the second half of the season.

Edd Roush
04-15-2010, 02:42 PM
There's no way I'd give up on him--the guy is only 23 years old. I'd be willing to put him in the bullpen until things start to come together. Who would take his spot in the rotation? I'm open to Owings having it for a while, but I also wouldn't mind optioning Ondrusek and calling up Wood.

I agree with most of what you have posted. As stated by membengal before, I would give him all of this year to figure it out unless he is a 7+ ERA by the end of May. I would think that Wood would be the next one knocking on the door for the starting rotation since it was down to him and Leake. I also would not want to have Owings in the rotation at all. Let him stay where he has had some success and let him thrive in a role he was meant for. I also want to give Ondrusek a little bit of leash. He has flashed potential to me and I think he has the stuff necessary to be successful.

This being said, I really think Homer will start to zero in and we will be laughing at the end of May looking back at this thread. Or at least that is what my heart is feeling...

Spring~Fields
04-15-2010, 02:43 PM
I don't know the answers.

Other than the season is young, give him more time, just as it has seemed justifiable and warranted for the other players.



2010 BABIP Total BABIP 2007 2008 2009
Arthur Rhodes .155 .295 .319 .249
Aaron Harang .168 .315 .298 .317 .339
Micah Owings .180 .375 .280 .302 .286
Michael Leake .225
Bronson Arroyo .228 .334 .318 .321 .270
Francisco Cordero .287 .315 .341 .314 .301
Mike Lincoln .304 .304 .284 .283
Johnny Cueto .350 .305 .309 .296
Homer Bailey .381 .320 .286 .376 .306
Nick Masset .396 .308 .357 .327 .250
Logan Ondrusek .403
Daniel Ray Herrera .532 .325 .415 .309


http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=Reds&pos=all&stats=pit&qual=0&type=1&season=2010&month=0

OnBaseMachine
04-15-2010, 02:48 PM
Bailey's stuff is still good. I went back and checked, he had 13 swings and misses last night. His biggest problem right now is location. How many times do you see him get ahead 1-2 and then lose the batter to a walk.

IIRC, Bailey was always a slow starter in the minors and never really got things going until May. Obviously starting slow isn't ideal for the team but hopefully he can get things going soon.

TheNext44
04-15-2010, 02:51 PM
I actually have been encouraged by what I've seen in Bailey so far this year.

He has had two starts in which he had no command, especially with his offspeed pitches. And yet, he didn't get clobbered in either of them.

That's a sign of a major league pitcher. He didn't get upset and start trying to overthrow, he simply toughed it out, and in both cases, kept the Reds in the game for at least 5 innings.

It's also a sign of how good his stuff is. He really looked terrible out there last night, and the Marlins are good offensive team, but they couldn't knock him out. Even with no command, he was able to skate by without getting blown out.

Now, he may never get his command back, and may pitch like this all year, in which case, he ends up in middle relief. But he I doubt that will happen, and am pretty confident that he will have enough starts where he does have his command, that turns out to be decent starter overall.

TheNext44
04-15-2010, 02:55 PM
Probably. I think this team wants to win this year, but no way they're better than the Cards, Rockies, or Braves. I have no problem tinkering this season, but yeah, this should be Bailey's last MLB tryout with the Reds.

This team's starting, again--just as I said--is not very good at all. Other teams' young arms are light years ahead of ours: Hanson, Jimenez, Jurrjens. Heck, Brad Penny would be the Reds' ace.

Brad Penny right now is pitching like the ace of the Cardinals' staff. :)

Ghosts of 1990
04-15-2010, 02:57 PM
I give him the entire season to see how things pan out, then I revisit the question in September. By then we will know what the club truly has with him.

Yea, I give him until the end of the season at least. I'd rather watch him then Harang on any night. Cueto hasn't been much better even at his best.

kaldaniels
04-15-2010, 03:00 PM
Bailey's stuff is still good. I went back and checked, he had 13 swings and misses last night. His biggest problem right now is location. How many times do you see him get ahead 1-2 and then lose the batter to a walk.

IIRC, Bailey was always a slow starter in the minors and never really got things going until May. Obviously starting slow isn't ideal for the team but hopefully he can get things going soon.

What's a good number of swings and misses for a pitcher to have?

lollipopcurve
04-15-2010, 03:08 PM
Bailey's stuff is still good. I went back and checked, he had 13 swings and misses last night. His biggest problem right now is location. How many times do you see him get ahead 1-2 and then lose the batter to a walk.

IIRC, Bailey was always a slow starter in the minors and never really got things going until May. Obviously starting slow isn't ideal for the team but hopefully he can get things going soon.

On target.

OnBaseMachine
04-15-2010, 03:08 PM
What's a good number of swings and misses for a pitcher to have?

13 is very good. Double digits is always pretty good.

For example, Tim Lincecum had 17 swings and misses in his 7 IP, 10 K outing against the Braves on Sunday.

In Adam Wainwright's 8 IP, 0 R outing against the Astros a few days ago, he had 7 swings and misses.

Superdude
04-15-2010, 03:15 PM
I'm definitely not ready to change my opinion of Homer after two starts, but I was definitely expecting a big time breakout year. This team needs the young, high-upside guys to start producing in order to compete, so I'd say we can pretty much throw in the towel if Homer pitches like a borderline #5 all season long.

Benihana
04-15-2010, 03:16 PM
I'm definitely not ready to change my opinion of Homer after two starts, but I was definitely expecting a big time breakout year. This team needs the young, high-upside guys to start producing in order to compete, so I'd say we can pretty much throw in the towel if Homer pitches like a borderline #5 all season long.

Agreed.

I would give Bailey until about the All-Star Break. If he hasn't shown significant improvement by then (something like an ERA under 5.00), I would look to move him for some kind of reconcilable value- maybe in a package with Alonso. This would coincide with Volquez coming back from his injury and/or Chapman+Wood being ready to make their debuts.

I made a similar post to this thread last year, but got temporarily blinded by his September performance. Hoping that was real, I expected a breakout season (which obviously is still quite possible.) If he doesn't start to put it together in the next couple months though, his time here will have expired. We're starting to move into Austin Kearns territory, where we've heard about such potential from this #1 pick for such a long time, we begin to forget that he actually has to start harnessing some of it at some point. Otherwise, he's nothing more than a mediocre player taking up space on the roster. There's still time, but the horizon doesn't go on forever.

HokieRed
04-15-2010, 03:22 PM
The superabundance of statistics makes this game seem so simple. Bailey's just automatically supposed to start the way he finished last year: as one of the most effective pitchers in the league. If he doesn't, away with him! Amazing.

Always Red
04-15-2010, 03:25 PM
The superabundance of statistics makes this game seem so simple. Bailey's just automatically supposed to start the way he finished last year: as one of the most effective pitchers in the league. If he doesn't, away with him! Amazing.

Agreed; it's only been 10 innings!

dougdirt
04-15-2010, 03:29 PM
The difference between Homer at the end of 2009 and Homer in 2010 so far is one thing... the ability to locate his fastball. When he can throw his fastball where the catcher puts his mitt, he can get guys out. When he can't, he can't.

Caveat Emperor
04-15-2010, 03:30 PM
The superabundance of statistics makes this game seem so simple. Bailey's just automatically supposed to start the way he finished last year: as one of the most effective pitchers in the league. If he doesn't, away with him! Amazing.

Nobody is suggesting that at all -- the question is how long of a leash does he get, and what do you do if he doesn't turn it around.

dougdirt
04-15-2010, 03:33 PM
13 is very good. Double digits is always pretty good.

For example, Tim Lincecum had 17 swings and misses in his 7 IP, 10 K outing against the Braves on Sunday.

In Adam Wainwright's 8 IP, 0 R outing against the Astros a few days ago, he had 7 swings and misses.

Wow to Lincecum's 17. I have seen guys put up 8+ strikeout games with less than 8 swings and misses. Double digit swings and misses is very impressive for one game.

lollipopcurve
04-15-2010, 03:33 PM
Nobody is suggesting that at all

Sure you are. You threw out the DFA possibility.

Falls City Beer
04-15-2010, 03:34 PM
He's given up some absurd amount of baserunners this year. His career ERA is north of 5.50. You give him time right now, but a deicision is going to have to be made when either Volquez comes back or Chapman is ready.

Volquez may not have the highest ceiling among the Reds' starters, but I still think he might end up being the best of them.

Falls City Beer
04-15-2010, 03:37 PM
The difference between Homer at the end of 2009 and Homer in 2010 so far is one thing... the ability to locate his fastball. When he can throw his fastball where the catcher puts his mitt, he can get guys out. When he can't, he can't.

Let's not pretend like this problem hasn't plagued Homer far longer than his ability to control his fastball. Caveat's thesis is right: Homer Bailey's professional career has been two bright months surrounded by years of terrible control. Let's not count on anything.

This isn't some johnny-come-lately argument; this has been a consistent issue.

Falls City Beer
04-15-2010, 03:40 PM
I think if you offered the Cardinals Harang or Arroyo for Penny straight up (if the money was equaled out), they'd jump on the deal and scream "No takebacks" on their way home to St. Louis. But, that's just a guess on my part.

And while other teams have better established starters, I like the potential mix of the Reds team. I think Chapman has a good shot to be better than any of the three you listed, and I like at least one of the "group" of Wood, Leake, and Bailey to break out to a good #2/#3 type guy. I'm lower on Leake than a lot of people here, but a lot of someones saw a lot of something in him last year and in the spring.

And, really, the forgotten man here is Edinson Volquez, who was dominant when he was healthy. Given the way TJ's are done these days, we have no reason to think he won't come back in the same shape he left.

I love potential. But Hanson, Jimenez, and Jurrjens are doing it. That is, unquestionably retiring MLB hitters with consistency. There's no guesswork or talk of ceilings with those guys; they're producing.

jojo
04-15-2010, 03:46 PM
At this point you treat him like EE (at least like I advocated for EE during his final two years as a Red).... pencil him into the lineup and forget about him until finally, it is clear that his ceiling has been lowered to the point that better options are straightforward to accomplish...

Brutus
04-15-2010, 03:49 PM
At this point you treat him like EE (at least like I advocated for EE during his final two years as a Red).... pencil him into the lineup and forget about him until finally, it is clear that his ceiling has been lowered to the point that better options are straightforward to accomplish...

That's not bad, but you also run the risk of running any remaining trade value into the ground to the point, like EE, the only way to trade him is to simply make someone take him off your hands as part of getting something else in return.

RedsManRick
04-15-2010, 03:51 PM
I love potential. But Hanson, Jimenez, and Jurrjens are doing it. That is, unquestionably retiring MLB hitters with consistency. There's no guesswork or talk of ceilings with those guys; they're producing.

Surely you're not talking about Jurjjens and his 8.64 ERA through 2 starts this year?

Falls City Beer
04-15-2010, 03:51 PM
That's not bad, but you also run the risk of running any remaining trade value into the ground to the point, like EE, the only way to trade him is to simply make someone take him off your hands as part of getting something else in return.

This is clearly the Reds' FO biggest blind spot in this decade. Always holding on too long to stuff they can't coach or can't fix.

I'd argue they're at a point with Bailey that his ability to eat innings outweighs what he'd return in trade at this point. JMO.

Falls City Beer
04-15-2010, 03:52 PM
Surely you're not talking about Jurjjens and his 8.64 ERA through 2 starts this year?

Talking about the 55 MLB starts prior to his last two.

Ghosts of 1990
04-15-2010, 03:52 PM
Nobody is suggesting that at all -- the question is how long of a leash does he get, and what do you do if he doesn't turn it around.

What are we going to do with Cueto if he doesn't turn around? We thought we had a future Cy Young winner on our hands with this guy and he labors every start to nearly every hitter; really I don't feel he's anymore effective start to start than Homer Bailey is; and he has never had a run like Homer had to close out 2009, whether it was against some expanded rosters or not. I just think Homer needs a little more time to get a true read on him. Why excercise the patience with Cueto but not Bailey? Especially when Harang is in our rotation and getting hammered 2 out of every 3 starts.

I'd like to see Bailey get this season. Not like we're contending for a World Series this year.

Falls City Beer
04-15-2010, 03:54 PM
What are we going to do with Cueto if he doesn't turn around? We thought we had a future Cy Young winner on our hands with this guy and he labors every start to nearly every hitter; really I don't feel he's anymore effective start to start than Homer Bailey is; and he has never had a run like Homer had to close out 2009, whether it was against some expanded rosters or not. I just think Homer needs a little more time to get a true read on him. Why excercise the patience with Cueto but not Bailey? Especially when Harang is in our rotation and getting hammered 2 out of every 3 starts.

I'd like to see Bailey get this season. Not like we're contending for a World Series this year.

I'm certainly not delighted with Cueto's progress, but he is a year younger, and hasn't had the history of horrible control that Bailey has.

lollipopcurve
04-15-2010, 03:54 PM
Caveat's thesis is right: Homer Bailey's professional career has been two bright months surrounded by years of terrible control.

This is pure mythology. 519 minor league innings - 525 Ks, 222 BBs.

Ghosts of 1990
04-15-2010, 03:54 PM
That's not bad, but you also run the risk of running any remaining trade value into the ground to the point, like EE, the only way to trade him is to simply make someone take him off your hands as part of getting something else in return.

I'd say then so be it.

Gavin Floyd was similar in Philly as Homer is here. He went to the White Sox and is now an extremely solid starter for them. I think Homer needs more time, he's really young. 23 isn't the age to give up on a former #1 draft pick who was the top prospect in the system for years running without even giving him a full season if his arm can hold up and make all the starts.

Falls City Beer
04-15-2010, 03:55 PM
This is pure mythology. 519 minor league innings - 525 Ks, 222 BBs.

BB/IP ain't real good.

K's are pretty, sure.

KronoRed
04-15-2010, 04:00 PM
Keep running him out there until there is a better option, even if he has an era of 10

RedsManRick
04-15-2010, 04:01 PM
Talking about the 55 MLB starts prior to his last two.

I know; I was (poorly) pointing out the volatility of young pitchers.

Bailey has 39 major league starts with a 4.97 FIP. No, that's not great, but for a 23 year old with plus stuff, it's just laughable to suggest he's on the hot seat.

Falls City Beer
04-15-2010, 04:03 PM
I know; I was (poorly) pointing out the volatility of young pitchers.

Bailey has 39 major league starts with a 4.97 FIP. No, that's not great, but for a 23 year old with plus stuff, it's just laughable to suggest he's on the hot seat.

I'm sure he's not on the hot seat; except that he's out of options, no? So, yes, with the Reds some decisions probably need to be made or at least planned for.

I honestly don't care what happens to Bailey when he no longer pitches for the Reds.

Brutus
04-15-2010, 04:03 PM
I'd say then so be it.

Gavin Floyd was similar in Philly as Homer is here. He went to the White Sox and is now an extremely solid starter for them. I think Homer needs more time, he's really young. 23 isn't the age to give up on a former #1 draft pick who was the top prospect in the system for years running without even giving him a full season if his arm can hold up and make all the starts.

Floyd had only made 19 starts for the Phillies when he was traded in the Freddy Garcia deal. He still had value at that point. Homer Bailey has now made 39 starts for the Reds. Assuming he were to continue pitching poorly, he'll have very little value left - unlike Floyd.

I'm not suggesting they trade Bailey. Nor am I saying he won't work out. However, the point is, you sometimes have to know when to hold (on to) 'em and know when to fold 'em.

FYI, though it's not a big deal in what the Reds should or shouldn't do with Bailey, Floyd has been a league average starter for the White Sox. There's nothing wrong with that, but is it worth the risk of turning into nothing to hope he ends up league average? I'm not sure.

lollipopcurve
04-15-2010, 04:13 PM
BB/IP ain't real good.

It's OK. Not great, not poor. It is by no means horrible or terrible, as you described it.

By the way, in his age 24 season (Bailey turns 24 in May) Ubaldo Jimenez walked 103 batters in 198 innings.

Ghosts of 1990
04-15-2010, 04:19 PM
I think we are acting like Mike Leake is a sure bet. Truth be told; we have really have no sure bets in this rotation right now unless you count Arroyo. He's the closest thing we have to a 'stopper' or sure thing every 5th day. I think Volquez was one and then the arm troubles came.

But really, Mike Leake might not end up better then what Bailey is giving us now. And here's an article talking about the history for players in Mike Leake's position of coming straight from college to the bigs: http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/story/13196776/leake-better-enjoy-now-because-history-isnt-on-his-side?tag=headlines

I just think that, with young players patience has to be exercised. And when you're getting impatient, you have to bite the bullet and keep exercising it. There's several guys on the squad that fit that bill right now. Bailey, Bruce, Cueto, Stubbs, and so on.

Falls City Beer
04-15-2010, 04:19 PM
It's OK. Not great, not poor. It is by no means horrible or terrible, as you described it.

Combine it with his MLB BB rate, and the picture gets a lot uglier. So yeah, if you want to cherry-pick Bailey's "history" you can make it look better.

RedsManRick
04-15-2010, 04:22 PM
I'm sure he's not on the hot seat; except that he's out of options, no? So, yes, with the Reds some decisions probably need to be made or at least planned for.

I honestly don't care what happens to Bailey when he no longer pitches for the Reds.

I guess my point is that we have no reason to believe the Reds will need to jettison Homer for performance reasons. Even as a 5.00 ERA starter, he'd be better than the typical #5. And if you want to make room for Chapman, fine, move him to the bullpen -- he'd certainly be better than Lincoln and Ondrusek.

But even as the 11th or 12th man on the staff if it came to that, you deal with the downside because the upside isn't going away. Ubaldo Jiminez was referenced earlier. Many pitchers take until 25 or 26 until they reach their potential. And so long as Homer isn't killing us, he should and will get every opportunity to live up to it.

Sure, we should plan for the possibility that he'll become a sub-replacement player. But that could be said about virtually anybody. Unless and until there are 11 other guys outpitching him in the majors and somebody tearing up the minors who needs a spot, I see nothing to get worked up about which requires advanced planning.

jojo
04-15-2010, 04:23 PM
Who in the Reds organization should be taking starts from Homer at this point?

Caveat Emperor
04-15-2010, 04:24 PM
Sure you are. You threw out the DFA possibility.

He's out of options, so that's always a possibiltiy -- especially if it's true that he can't work effectively out of the bullpen.

If Wood and Chapman are knocking on the door at AAA and Volquez comes back from surgery, are the Reds going to continue to trot Homer Bailey out for 5 IP / 4 ER every 5 games?

Falls City Beer
04-15-2010, 04:27 PM
Who in the Reds organization should be taking starts from Homer at this point?

Yes, the Reds have a paucity of starters. Despite the sanguine claims of depth.

Still, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see either Wood or Chapman outpitch him in every way possible. Plus, Volquez will return late in the year.

Ghosts of 1990
04-15-2010, 04:30 PM
Yes, the Reds have a paucity of starters. Despite the sanguine claims of depth.

Still, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see either Wood or Chapman outpitch him in every way possible. Plus, Volquez will return late in the year.

I think what some are saying is; in that case wouldn't Wood and Chapman be also outpitching Harang and possibly Cueto as well? Why dismiss Homer?

I think Volquez should regain form at the end of this year in AAA. No sense letting him work out his kinks while he's not at full strength at GABP or it might dent him for good.

KronoRed
04-15-2010, 04:31 PM
He's out of options, so that's always a possibiltiy -- especially if it's true that he can't work effectively out of the bullpen.

If Wood and Chapman are knocking on the door at AAA and Volquez comes back from surgery, are the Reds going to continue to trot Homer Bailey out for 5 IP / 4 ER every 5 games?

If that happens, you dump Homer, but right now may as well run him no matter what because Kip Wells is not the answer.

reds44
04-15-2010, 04:34 PM
If that happens, you dump Homer, but right now may as well run him no matter what because Kip Wells is not the answer.
This.

lollipopcurve
04-15-2010, 04:39 PM
Combine it with his MLB BB rate, and the picture gets a lot uglier. So yeah, if you want to cherry-pick Bailey's "history" you can make it look better.

Cherrypicking? You made the claim that Bailey should be defined by "years of terrible control." I cited his entire minor league history -- no evidence of terrible control.

Now you say we should ignore Bailey's last 10 starts (or thereabouts -- 58 innings) in 2009 in favor of the innings he pitched in the majors prior to that plus the 2 starts this year. I think if you examine the BB rate in the innings you deem acceptable for consideration -- just the acceptable major league innings now, we'll ignore the 519 minor league innings, to help your cause -- you'll find the BB rate comparable to Ubaldo Jimenez's 100+ BBs in less than 200 innings in his age 24 season, the age Bailey turns this year.

You need to realize your claims re: Bailey's control are decidedly hyperbolic. Does he need to refine his control? Yes. Does he have major issues with his control? No.

_Sir_Charles_
04-15-2010, 04:50 PM
Agreed.

I would give Bailey until about the All-Star Break. If he hasn't shown significant improvement by then (something like an ERA under 5.00), I would look to move him for some kind of reconcilable value- maybe in a package with Alonso. This would coincide with Volquez coming back from his injury and/or Chapman+Wood being ready to make their debuts.

I made a similar post to this thread last year, but got temporarily blinded by his September performance. Hoping that was real, I expected a breakout season (which obviously is still quite possible.) If he doesn't start to put it together in the next couple months though, his time here will have expired. We're starting to move into Austin Kearns territory, where we've heard about such potential from this #1 pick for such a long time, we begin to forget that he actually has to start harnessing some of it at some point. Otherwise, he's nothing more than a mediocre player taking up space on the roster. There's still time, but the horizon doesn't go on forever.

I understand this line of thinking, but there's simply one thing that people tend to overlook so easily. His age. It seems like Bailey's been here forever and he's had chance after chance after chance. That's not Homer's fault. He shouldn't have been up here so early. Not by a longshot. If he had been in the minors all this time and just came up last year initially...I doubt we'd be having this discussion (of course he'd also still have all those options...durnit). Yes, the Reds screwed up his development timetable in regards to the bigs and his options, but his actual development as a pitcher is right on schedule IMO. We should be patient with him and let him pitch. He seems to be the kind of pitcher that gets stronger as the season moves along (and in games too it seems). A few seasons in the bigs and he should settle down into what his career will be. I always expect a pitchers first 2 seasons to be somewhat rocky. I'm counting LAST season as that first "real" season. But that's me.

Will M
04-15-2010, 04:51 PM
I posted in the game thread that both Cueto & Bailey are starting to frustrate me as a fan. this is despite Homer's late 2009 success.

as a fan i really hope everyone gets it together & we have something like 9 quality starters

what i can reasonably hope for is that we have five quality guys. lets say for the sake of arguement that Chapman has 2-3 more great starts in AAA & Leake pitches better than Cueto/Bailey. then i send one of them to the bullpen. light a fire under his you know what. back in the bad ole days guys with potential like Homer & Johnny got a large amount of leeway before the team pulled the plug. EE was a good example of this. a rebuilding team could afford to give EE a lot of time to try & improve and reach his potential. a contending team would never have stuck with him as long as the Reds did.
i believe the Reds brass is trying to move from being an annual rebuilding team to an annual contending team. therefore guys like Homer & Johnny need to realize its time to git er done so to speak. if you don't perform we have other guys chomping at the bit to take your place in the rotation.

Ghosts of 1990
04-15-2010, 04:52 PM
I think Bailey's main issue at the Major League level is that after he gives up a hit--he starts to mess around a little too much and nibble rather then coming back in and going right at the next hitter. That is what causes him problems in control. He can be rattled and early or strung out in his own mind on the mound a bit.

As for just overall struggles, I don't think we've done him any favors. I remember reading an article this offseason where Bailey cited back in 2007 when he went like 7 shutout innings of 2 hit ball against the Oakland A's. Two starts later he went on short rest, got hit hard and got sent down--a waste of an option--and a hit to his confidence. Bailey's reaction then was "what the heck"

As a fan, that was my reaction too. The organization struggles developing young players. There's got to be a reason for it. I think them being so shaky in the handling of Bailey has hurt him a little bit.

lollipopcurve
04-15-2010, 04:57 PM
We haven't had good pitching prospects here in so long, it's like people don't want them if they can't provide instant and unremitting gratification.

Bailey's 23/24. He throws mid 90s. He overmatched lineups for several weeks at the end of last season (including excellent games vs. St Louis, Florida, Colorado and LA, all playoff or contending teams). He's been very durable -- no health history to be concerned about. He's cheap. Yet some posters are already throwing him under the bus? Once a hater, always a hater....

Brutus
04-15-2010, 05:01 PM
We haven't had good pitching prospects here in so long, it's like people don't want them if they can't provide instant and unremitting gratification.

Bailey's 23/24. He throws mid 90s. He overmatched lineups for several weeks at the end of last season (including excellent games vs. St Louis, Florida, Colorado and LA, all playoff or contending teams). He's been very durable -- no health history to be concerned about. He's cheap. Yet some posters are already throwing him under the bus? Once a hater, always a hater....

I'm not writing him off yet, but he's about to have his 40th start and 4th season in the big leagues. Yes, he's still young, but it's not like he hasn't had plenty of opportunities. We're beyond "instant unremitting gratification."

I think he's been around long enough, now, for people to expect he put it together. I most certainly will not give up on him. He looked like he was on the verge of a breakthrough last season. And he's only had two starts this year, so sample is a huge issue to this point in the year. But nonetheless, let's not pretend he just got to the big leagues.

lollipopcurve
04-15-2010, 05:02 PM
I think he's been around long enough, now, for people to expect he put it together. I most certainly will not give up on him. He looked like he was on the verge of a breakthrough last season. And he's only had two starts this year, so sample is a huge issue to this point in the year. But nonetheless, let's not pretend he just got to the big leagues.

And let's not pretend he wasn't rushed.

_Sir_Charles_
04-15-2010, 05:11 PM
I'm not writing him off yet, but he's about to have his 40th start and 4th season in the big leagues. Yes, he's still young, but it's not like he hasn't had plenty of opportunities. We're beyond "instant unremitting gratification."

I think he's been around long enough, now, for people to expect he put it together. I most certainly will not give up on him. He looked like he was on the verge of a breakthrough last season. And he's only had two starts this year, so sample is a huge issue to this point in the year. But nonetheless, let's not pretend he just got to the big leagues.

This is the part that skews everyone's perspective. He should NOT have 4 seasons in the bigs at this point. We should stop looking at this from the aspect of what he's done in the bigs so far, to where he is CURRENTLY in his development. He's showing poise when he doesn't have his best stuff. He's matured and much more humble than he was earlier. He's much more coachable. He's added a new pitch and had success with it. And for a 23 year old, he's locked down a slot in an above average starting rotation. TWENTY-THREE. Forget the 4 years in the bigs. That was beyond foolishness.

HokieRed
04-15-2010, 05:11 PM
We haven't had good pitching prospects here in so long, it's like people don't want them if they can't provide instant and unremitting gratification.

Bailey's 23/24. He throws mid 90s. He overmatched lineups for several weeks at the end of last season (including excellent games vs. St Louis, Florida, Colorado and LA, all playoff or contending teams). He's been very durable -- no health history to be concerned about. He's cheap. Yet some posters are already throwing him under the bus? Once a hater, always a hater....


Agree 100%.

paulrichjr
04-15-2010, 05:17 PM
Agreed; it's only been 10 innings!

I remember a few years ago in the minors he started off horribly slow and suddenly turned it on after a month or so. I'm not worried at all. I am a little concerned about Leake though with those first 3 batters he faced in that last game. That was just horrible. :D

KoryMac5
04-15-2010, 05:42 PM
I think we need to give the kid another season or two. This is the first year he gets to work with Price who has a pretty good reputation as a pitching coach. I would imagine the Reds would have a good idea about Homer after the season based off what Price has to say about him.

Brutus
04-15-2010, 05:47 PM
And let's not pretend he wasn't rushed.

Rushed or not, he's pitched more than 600 professional innings. It's time to judge him on what he is or will be and not what he may have been.

lollipopcurve
04-15-2010, 05:51 PM
It's time to judge him on what he is or will be and not what he may have been.

That's what I would say, too. Don't expect him to be a #1 starter just because he was a high draft pick.

How can you judge someone based on "what they will be" if you don't know what that is yet?

What he is, is 23/24 with plus stuff and no injury history, and a recent track record of success in the bigs.

600 professional innings is no threshold at which one should be drawing definitive conclusions about the future of a pitcher.

HeatherC1212
04-15-2010, 05:52 PM
This is the part that skews everyone's perspective. He should NOT have 4 seasons in the bigs at this point. We should stop looking at this from the aspect of what he's done in the bigs so far, to where he is CURRENTLY in his development. He's showing poise when he doesn't have his best stuff. He's matured and much more humble than he was earlier. He's much more coachable. He's added a new pitch and had success with it. And for a 23 year old, he's locked down a slot in an above average starting rotation. TWENTY-THREE. Forget the 4 years in the bigs. That was beyond foolishness.

Quoted for truth and for how I feel right now too. :thumbup:

Falls City Beer
04-15-2010, 06:10 PM
As every single poster who is critical of Bailey is saying, give him this season. No argument. As has been pointed out, no one's beating down in the door in the minors. Such is the Reds' organization's plight.

_Sir_Charles_
04-15-2010, 06:14 PM
As every single poster who is critical of Bailey is saying, give him this season. No argument. As has been pointed out, no one's beating down in the door in the minors. Such is the Reds' organization's plight.

Were you expecting someone to be "beating down the door" with only one week of MiLB play?

As for who's ready...
Wood has certainly strutted his stuff in his first outing. 4 ip / 7 hits / 0 r / 1 bb / 9 k's
And Maloney has thrown quite well too. 5.2 ip / 6 hits / 1 r / 0 bb / 8 k's

But what you're expecting with only one outing...I'm not sure

Captain Hook
04-15-2010, 06:17 PM
I don't get it.I know Homer hasn't been great in his two starts but 5+ IP and leaving both games with the team still having a chance isn't horrible and it's just 2 starts.Next time out it looks like Homer will be facing LA.If he goes 8 shutout innings his ERA will drop below 4 and with a win against a team like the Dodgers that have been a thorn in the Reds side, most will be rejoicing about the early season success that Bailey has had.

Falls City Beer
04-15-2010, 06:19 PM
Were you expecting someone to be "beating down the door" with only one week of MiLB play? As for who's ready...Wood has certainly strutted his stuff in his first outing.

Well, no. I think it's too early for Chapman, no matter what he's doing. And Wood probably needs some more time--I'm not terribly high on him, regardless.

Volquez's return should shake things up.

Brutus
04-15-2010, 06:19 PM
That's what I would say, too. Don't expect him to be a #1 starter just because he was a high draft pick.

How can you judge someone based on "what they will be" if you don't know what that is yet?

What he is, is 23/24 with plus stuff and no injury history, and a recent track record of success in the bigs.

600 professional innings is no threshold at which one should be drawing definitive conclusions about the future of a pitcher.

No one is drawing "definitive" conclusions. But it's been plenty of time where people can get an idea of what he may or may not be.

You said people want instant gratification and I pointed out he's in his 4th year of major league experience and is beyond the instant gratification. Whether he should have been brought up that quickly or not, he was. There's no point in judging him by a development track that was never taken.

_Sir_Charles_
04-15-2010, 06:26 PM
Well, no. I think it's too early for Chapman, no matter what he's doing.
Agreed. I'd like to see Chapman as a late season callup at best. But you never know, he may force the Reds hand.


And Wood probably needs some more time--I'm not terribly high on him, regardless.

Volquez's return should shake things up.

Not sure I agree on Wood, but some more time in Louisville certainly wouldn't hurt. But in my eyes, he's ready. But then again, I think Maloney is too. Just maybe not in GABP.

bucksfan2
04-15-2010, 09:39 PM
Not sure why we play this game with Homer all the time but give Harang a free pass. Homer hasn't been great this season but he has kept his team in the game in both of his starts. I think Homer is maturing as a pitcher, if these two starts would have taken place in the previous couple of years the flood gates would have been opened. This year Homer has limited the damage.

To be honest the guy I am worried about the most is Harang and he would be the first guy I would attempt to move. Cueto would be number two on my list to move. Not so much because of performance but because I don't think he has near the upside that the other young pitchers have. If I could package Cueto and his upside in a deal to get someone of need I would do it.

Falls City Beer
04-15-2010, 10:03 PM
Not sure why we play this game with Homer all the time but give Harang a free pass. Homer hasn't been great this season but he has kept his team in the game in both of his starts. I think Homer is maturing as a pitcher, if these two starts would have taken place in the previous couple of years the flood gates would have been opened. This year Homer has limited the damage.

To be honest the guy I am worried about the most is Harang and he would be the first guy I would attempt to move. Cueto would be number two on my list to move. Not so much because of performance but because I don't think he has near the upside that the other young pitchers have. If I could package Cueto and his upside in a deal to get someone of need I would do it.

I certainly don't give Harang a pass. It's been clear as mud to me that the guy's been in a steady decline.

Will M
04-15-2010, 10:47 PM
fangraph's take: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/homers-walks-still-holding-back-bailey

RedEye
04-16-2010, 12:38 AM
What are we going to do with Cueto if he doesn't turn around? We thought we had a future Cy Young winner on our hands with this guy and he labors every start to nearly every hitter; really I don't feel he's anymore effective start to start than Homer Bailey is; and he has never had a run like Homer had to close out 2009, whether it was against some expanded rosters or not.

Didn't Cueto carry an ERA under 3.00 into the All-Star break last year? I seem to remember him having some extended success in 2009 until his arm got tired.

Ron Madden
04-16-2010, 04:27 AM
Sometimes Homer Bailey reminds me of a young Brett TomKo.

Then I tell myself Homer is still young enough to turn it around and have a very good major league career.

mth123
04-16-2010, 04:50 AM
I'm certainly not delighted with Cueto's progress, but he is a year younger, and hasn't had the history of horrible control that Bailey has.

Actually Cueto is 3 months older.

mth123
04-16-2010, 05:07 AM
Homer Bailey is the least of this team's problems.

And he is younger than:

Johnny Cueto, Enerio Del Rosario, Carlos Fisher, Danny Rae Herrera. Sam Lecure, Matt Maloney. Logan Ondrusek, Jordan Smith.

He is less than 1 year older than:

Travis Wood, Phil Valiquette,

He is roughly 18 months older than Mike Leake and and 21 months older than Aroldis Chapman.

Its not remotely close to time to give up on him. He gets the entire season.

GAC
04-16-2010, 05:54 AM
Should The Cincinnati Reds Be Patient with Homer Bailey?

Listed below, are the points and counterpoints about what the Reds should do about Homer Bailey.....

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/379261-mlb-2010-should-he-reds-be-patient-with-homer-bailey

Homer Bailey is an enigma wrapped in a riddle. I still agree with this synopsis from late last summer on Bailey in Redlegs Baseball...

http://redlegsbaseball.blogspot.com/2009/08/extraordinary-homer-bailey.html

jojo
04-16-2010, 06:58 AM
Homer, Cueto and Harang should all be run out of town with torches and pitchforks. Leake had better pitch well over his next 5 starts or he can join them too...

Arroyo should just take the mound every night.

:rockband:

Razor Shines
04-16-2010, 09:01 AM
Homer, Cueto and Harang should all be run out of town with torches and pitchforks. Leake had better pitch well over his next 5 starts or he can join them too...

Arroyo should just take the mound every night.

:rockband:

He had a bad start last time, he's a bum too. Call up Louisville's rotation to replace them all.

OnBaseMachine
04-25-2010, 09:16 PM
Bailey looked much, much better today, IMO. He didn't have great results in the runs allowed column (4 R in 6 IP) but he located his pitches very well. He actually attacked hitters instead of nibbling around like he did in his previous starts. As a result, he walked only one hitter and tied a career high with eight strikeouts, including three straight swing-and-misses from Adrian Gonzalez. He did give up a 2-run HR to Gonzalez but it should have been a solo HR if Cabrera had made the play before the HR.

He threw a couple nice changeups/splitters in the game, including one to strikeout Will Venable in the second inning. He also showed a solid curveball later in the game. Overall, I was encouraged with his start today. He looked more like the Bailey that we saw in late 2009. If he continues throwing the ball like he did today then he should start getting some good results.

fearofpopvol1
04-26-2010, 12:18 AM
i fully agree with OBM. best Bailey has looked all season. i really thought outside of the pitch to Agon that went yard...that was the only really bad pitch he made the whole day.

Ghosts of 1990
04-26-2010, 12:26 AM
Looked like the bailey from the end of last year. 8 K's tying a career high. I really want him to keep it going.

Superdude
04-26-2010, 12:39 AM
anyone concerned about velocity yet? It's still early, but Bailey seems to be topping out around 93-94MPH every start.

RedEye
04-26-2010, 12:42 AM
anyone concerned about velocity yet? It's still early, but Bailey seems to be topping out around 93-94MPH every start.

I think I remember reading on another thread (or maybe this one) that in the minors Bailey tended to start slow and then get his legs--and velocity--back after a handful of starts in the season. Maybe we're seeing the same thing at the major league level now.

Captain Hook
04-26-2010, 12:47 AM
Homer has probably been the teams 2nd best starter.I believe the team is 3-1 when he starts and he leads all starters in SO.

If you would've told me at the begging of the season that this would be the case I'd be happy.Then I'd look at the stats and wonder how 3 other starters could be worse.

HeatherC1212
04-26-2010, 12:50 AM
I was at the game today and I thought Homer looked really great. I felt like I was watching the Homer that I saw at the end of the season last year and it was awesome to see him attacking everyone with strikes. I think he had some ridiculous amount of first pitch strikes which was a nice change from his first few starts. He struck out AGon swinging on THREE pitches in the first inning. That alone was impressive for me today after that guy's killed us this whole series. I think Homer can build on this start and use what he did today to help him in his next starts. He's on the right track and I'm excited to see his next start. :)

SirFelixCat
04-26-2010, 01:01 AM
I was at the game today and I thought Homer looked really great. I felt like I was watching the Homer that I saw at the end of the season last year and it was awesome to see him attacking everyone with strikes. I think he had some ridiculous amount of first pitch strikes which was a nice change from his first few starts. He struck out AGon swinging on THREE pitches in the first inning. That alone was impressive for me today after that guy's killed us this whole series. I think Homer can build on this start and use what he did today to help him in his next starts. He's on the right track and I'm excited to see his next start. :)

The bolded is the key to the entire starting staff, imo. Too many times the guys have been behind playing catch up, in the count. Get ahead of the hitter and the game is a little easier.:thumbup:

dougdirt
04-26-2010, 01:09 AM
anyone concerned about velocity yet? It's still early, but Bailey seems to be topping out around 93-94MPH every start.

Before todays game, Bailey had hit 95-96 14 times. I haven't had a chance to look into todays game though. Last year he topped out at 98 a few times, but I am not concerned.

GAC
04-26-2010, 05:29 AM
Bailey did a pretty good job yesterday. He's learning. He made the one mistake to Gonzalez, but overall I was impressed.

He embarrassed Gonzalez in his previous AB, prior to the HR, striking him out with nothing but heat. I also thought his breaking stuff looked impressive at times.

mth123
04-26-2010, 07:32 AM
Homer Bailey establishing himself as a solid (or better) major league starting pitcher is the single most important thing about the 2010 season and he should get a lot of rope to make that happen.

I think he will end-up establishing himself, but there will be bumps in the road as he continues to mature.

bucksfan2
04-26-2010, 09:30 AM
Bailey did a pretty good job yesterday. He's learning. He made the one mistake to Gonzalez, but overall I was impressed.

He embarrassed Gonzalez in his previous AB, prior to the HR, striking him out with nothing but heat. I also thought his breaking stuff looked impressive at times.

A Gonzalez is going to make a lot of pitches look foolish. I was listening to the game on radio and Marty and Jeff talked about Homer only making 2 mistake pitches all game long. That is whats going to take Homer to the next level, not making those mistake pitches to the wrong hitters.

Overall this season Bailey has been fine. I think he turned the corner after his last start against LA. I expected a good season out of him and think we will see that as the season matures.

RedsManRick
04-26-2010, 09:41 AM
anyone concerned about velocity yet? It's still early, but Bailey seems to be topping out around 93-94MPH every start.

When Bailey's fastball gets above 94-95 mph, it flattens out. I can't say for sure that he could ratchet it up there if wanted to, but I don't know that he'd ever want to.

lollipopcurve
04-26-2010, 09:55 AM
He's fine. He hung a splitter to Gonzalez -- otherwise he dominated with the fastball and solid command of the curve.

He needs a little more consistency with the secondary stuff, especially the splitter, that's all.

bucksfan2
04-26-2010, 10:02 AM
When Bailey's fastball gets above 94-95 mph, it flattens out. I can't say for sure that he could ratchet it up there if wanted to, but I don't know that he'd ever want to.

The key for Bailey is sitting at that 94-95 mph range. If you can hit the low end of the zone and the corners with that kind of heat then you will be very successful. The key to the mid to upper 90's heat is basically getting it up and out of the zone getting a fastball hitter to chase.

HokieRed
04-26-2010, 10:24 AM
Homer Bailey establishing himself as a solid (or better) major league starting pitcher is the single most important thing about the 2010 season and he should get a lot of rope to make that happen.

I think he will end-up establishing himself, but there will be bumps in the road as he continues to mature.


Agree 100%.

Hoosier Red
04-26-2010, 10:52 AM
A Gonzalez is going to make a lot of pitches look foolish. I was listening to the game on radio and Marty and Jeff talked about Homer only making 2 mistake pitches all game long. That is whats going to take Homer to the next level, not making those mistake pitches to the wrong hitters.

Overall this season Bailey has been fine. I think he turned the corner after his last start against LA. I expected a good season out of him and think we will see that as the season matures.

We hear this a lot about pitchers and so I'd like to hear more from scouting types. Did he truly only make two mistake pitches, or did he only get caught on two mistake pitches?

Announcers say this all the time, like he was just unlucky that the two mistake pitches were hammered instead of fouled back. But were there I don't know 8 other times when it was left up and instead got fouled back?

jojo
04-26-2010, 02:39 PM
I don't know about this turn a corner stuff...

He threw strikes and kept the ball down against a pretty bad lineup yesterday.

RedsManRick
04-26-2010, 03:03 PM
I don't know about this turn a corner stuff...

He threw strikes and kept the ball down against a pretty bad lineup yesterday.

Agreed. Yesterday in particular was a case where he got hurt a bit by the park. If the game was in San Diego, Gonzalez's homer is just another long out.

Of note, Bailey has a BABIP against of .402 with a 19.7% LD% and a unsustainably poor 66.1% LOB%. His FIP sits at 4.55. This early in the season, we should be careful not to confuse results, particularly as measured by a dull instrument like ERA, for performance.

Falls City Beer
04-26-2010, 03:08 PM
This early in the season, we should be careful not to confuse results, particularly as measured by a dull instrument like ERA, for performance.

I'm sure some are falling for that confusion, but I've got years of data on Bailey that say he's just not very good.

TheNext44
04-26-2010, 03:12 PM
I don't know about this turn a corner stuff...

He threw strikes and kept the ball down against a pretty bad lineup yesterday.

Not sure he turned the corner either, but I really didn't think he did that bad of a job in his earlier starts myself. His FIP and xFIP are around what he did last year, and his tERA, which I like better, has improved a bit.

But I think that what has gotten everyone so enthusiastic, is what you said. He threw strikes and kept the ball down. If he does that every start, with his stuff, he'll get good results, no matter who he is facing.

TheNext44
04-26-2010, 03:17 PM
I'm sure some are falling for that confusion, but I've got years of data on Bailey that say he's just not very good.

The history of Baseball is lined with stories of pitcher were not very good when they were 21 and 22, but who were very good when they were 24 and older.

Not saying Homer will be one of those stories, but what he did before he has matured (and that may still include this year) doesn't tell us much about what he will do.

Falls City Beer
04-26-2010, 03:21 PM
The history of Baseball is lined with stories of pitcher were not very good when they were 21 and 22, but who were very good when they were 24 and older.

Not saying Homer will be one of those stories, but what he did before he has matured (and that may still include this year) doesn't tell us much about what he will do.

The history of baseball numbers probably 10-12 starters of similar ability who have never amounted to anything for every one you're speaking of. It's not impossible, but to suggest the odds are anything but long for Bailey is simply to ignore massive amounts of data providing bad news.

fearofpopvol1
04-26-2010, 03:34 PM
The history of baseball numbers probably 10-12 starters of similar ability who have never amounted to anything for every one you're speaking of. It's not impossible, but to suggest the odds are anything but long for Bailey is simply to ignore massive amounts of data providing bad news.

He's 23 years old and has made 41 starts at the show and 216 innings. That's barely 1 season+. Let's not get carried away.

For comparison's sake, Aaron Harang had a career ERA of around 5 as a 26 year old at the show (and with more innings currently logged than Bailey has). It wasn't until 27 years old that Harang put up a very very good season.

TRF
04-26-2010, 03:36 PM
Baseball is a game of adjustments and confidence builders/destroyers. Bailey pitched a decent but on great game. The K's are great. The BB's may be even better. The Runs not so much.

The question is, can he get anything from this game? He hasn't turned a corner. he had a decent game. but... his K/9 over his last 2 starts is 10.32. unfortunately he only has 11.1 IP over those two starts. Maybe he can see the corner, but he hasn't turned it yet.

Falls City Beer
04-26-2010, 03:36 PM
He's 23 years old and has made 41 starts at the show and 216 innings. That's barely 1 season+. Let's not get carried away.

For comparison's sake, Aaron Harang had a career ERA of around 5 as a 26 year old at the show (and with more innings currently logged than Bailey has). It wasn't until 27 years old that Harang put up a very very good season.

I'm not cherrypicking data. Bailey wasn't all that good when he was "good" in the minors.

OnBaseMachine
04-26-2010, 03:37 PM
When Adam Wainwright was 23 years old he was posting a 4.40 ERA in Triple-A and allowing 204 hits in 182 innings. Not saying Bailey is the next Wainwright but people need to realize Bailey is still very young.

Falls City Beer
04-26-2010, 03:38 PM
Not to put too fine a point on it, but in a week Bailey's 24. In Wainwright's age 24 season, he was the NL's best reliever, sporting a ERA+ of 143.

Further, Wainwright, in his minor league years, walked nearly one less batter per 9 than Bailey. That's the tale of the tape on that comparison.

TRF
04-26-2010, 03:47 PM
Not to put too fine a point on it, but in a week Bailey's 24. In Wainwright's age 24 season, he was the NL's best reliever, sporting a ERA+ of 143.

Further, Wainwright, in his minor league years, walked nearly one less batter per 9 than Bailey. That's the tale of the tape on that comparison.

And Bailey has still barely pitched a full MLB season. He's a kid that throws hard and misses bats. He also historically BB's too many, and when he ratchets up the FB, he loses movement. He needs to learn to pitch instead of throw. And because WK accelerated his clock, he's behind developmentally.

But seriously, you do not give up on 24 year old pitchers that can hit 98 and K 8 batters in 6 IP.

Falls City Beer
04-26-2010, 03:50 PM
And Bailey has still barely pitched a full MLB season. He's a kid that throws hard and misses bats. He also historically BB's too many, and when he ratchets up the FB, he loses movement. He needs to learn to pitch instead of throw. And because WK accelerated his clock, he's behind developmentally.

But seriously, you do not give up on 24 year old pitchers that can hit 98 and K 8 batters in 6 IP.

I'm still trying to figure who is saying "Give up on Bailey?" What does that even mean? Shoot him? Cut him? I'm saying trade him. That's not giving up on him. That's cashing in on probabilities.

Razor Shines
04-26-2010, 03:53 PM
I, for one, thought you were on board with shooting him.

TRF
04-26-2010, 03:54 PM
I'm still trying to figure who is saying "Give up on Bailey?" What does that even mean? Shoot him? Cut him? I'm saying trade him. That's not giving up on him. That's cashing in on probabilities.

You'd be trading him when his value is low AND he's cheap. Plus the season is young.

Now, If it were me, I'd Zambrano Harang, DFA Lincoln, demote Massett and bring up Maloney and Chapman, with Chapman to the pen. It would generate a spark with the fans (Chapman) and Maloney, once the blister heals would be an upgrade over What Harang's been doing. Let him work out his issues in the pen.

Past that, I see what Bailey does. I listen to offers, and I watch the market.

RedsManRick
04-26-2010, 04:04 PM
Not to put too fine a point on it, but in a week Bailey's 24. In Wainwright's age 24 season, he was the NL's best reliever, sporting a ERA+ of 143.

Further, Wainwright, in his minor league years, walked nearly one less batter per 9 than Bailey. That's the tale of the tape on that comparison.

I know you know this, but cherry-picking specific cases is a poor way to make the argument in either direction.

If we want to the comp route, PECOTA is the best comp summary I'm aware of. It puts Bailey on a mean projection of 4.74 ERA for 2010, with an upside potential of ~4.00 and downside of ~5.20. Basically, it pegs him as a league average starter and his long term projections sits in the mid 4's as well. Obviously projections can and will change as he accrues of a track record.

The big take away from comp projections however is that he belongs in the major leagues and should be given more than a single season's worth of innings over 3 years to prove it.

Falls City Beer
04-26-2010, 04:04 PM
I know you know this, but cherry-picking specific cases is a poor way to make the argument in either direction.

If we want to the comp route, PECOTA is the best comp summary I'm aware of. It puts Bailey on a mean projection of 4.74 ERA for 2010, with an upside potential of ~4.00 and downside of ~5.20. Basically, it pegs him as a league average starter and his long term projections sits in the mid 4's as well. Obviously projections can and will change as he accrues of a track record.

The big take away from comp projections however is that he belongs in the major leagues and should be given more than a single season's worth of innings over 3 years to prove it.

I wasn't the one who brought up Wainwright. And now that we've moved the peg from TOR to league average, we shouldn't entertain the idea of trading him?

Caveat Emperor
04-26-2010, 04:18 PM
I wasn't the one who brought up Wainwright. And now that we've moved the peg from TOR to league average, we shouldn't entertain the idea of trading him?

You're obsessed with TOR. There are about 10-15 guys who qualify as TOR starters. They don't grow on trees, and they're usually not available to small market teams unless they develop them. The fact that Bailey isn't projecting as one this year is neither shocking nor reason to panic and bail on him as a player.

Give me league average at low cost for now. Worry about TOR when the opportunity comes to add one -- such as, potentially, when Aroldis Chapman is ready to trade his Bat's uni for the Wishbone-C.

Falls City Beer
04-26-2010, 04:19 PM
You're obsessed with TOR. There are about 15-20 guys who qualify as TOR starters. They don't grow on trees, and they're usually not available to small market teams unless they develop them. The fact that Bailey isn't projecting as one is neither shocking nor reason to panic and bail on him as a player.

Give me league average at low cost for now. Worry about TOR when the opportunity comes to add one -- such as, potentially, when Aroldis Chapman is ready to trade his Bat's uni for the Wishbone-C.

Why shouldn't I be obsessed with TOR when the Reds' ceiling the last decade has been league average? A rotation of league average pitchers means this organization will likely never win this division, no matter how many consecutive years we hold that league-average rotation together.

For the record, I think Volquez was pretty darn close to a TOR arm, by the far the closest we've come since Rijo.

Caveat Emperor
04-26-2010, 04:23 PM
Why shouldn't I be obsessed with TOR when the Reds' ceiling the last decade has been league average?

Because they aren't worth obsessing over. The only way to get a TOR starter is to:

1. Pay a ransom in young, cheap talent to pry one from another team.
2. Pay a ransom in cash and years to get an established one.
3. Develop one yourself.

Two of those three options don't make sense for teams whose names aren't Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies, Cubs, White Sox or Angels.

A TOR starter will come when the Reds successfully draft and develop one or when they make the right international signing (see: Chapman, Aroldis) that develops into a TOR starter.

Pining over the lack of one is the very definition of a waste of time. Small market teams can't pay to add them. It's a baseball reality you have to deal with if you want to follow a team like the Reds.

HokieRed
04-26-2010, 04:26 PM
Have we not been paying--and will continue to pay--a ransom in cash for mediocrity--Harang, Arroyo, Phillips? It's paying a ransom in cash for mediocrity that prevents so-called small market teams from acquiring TOR guys.

RedsManRick
04-26-2010, 04:33 PM
Why shouldn't I be obsessed with TOR when the Reds' ceiling the last decade has been league average? A rotation of league average pitchers means this organization will likely never win this division, no matter how many consecutive years we hold that league-average rotation together.

For the record, I think Volquez was pretty darn close to a TOR arm, by the far the closest we've come since Rijo.

It's not wrong to desire TOR and to strive for it. But obsessing over it suggests that you're ignoring meaningful distinctions elsewhere in the spectrum. At the end of the day, the game is getting the most production out of a full roster of 25 guys. Doing anything it takes to land a TOR guy doesn't make your team better if it means being replacement level in the 2-5 spots.

I agree with you that a rotation full of league average makes it awfully tough to win a division. But having a TOR guy and a bunch of crap elsewhere doesn't make it any easier. It's similar to the conversation we're having the other thread.

Your bottom-line assertion that we need more production (e.g. more talent) to be real contenders is correct. But I think you are making the jump from an argument about trying to find ways to get more high-end talent on the roster and applying it so broadly so as to suggest we get rid of anybody and everybody who isn't above average. I know you don't believe that, but it comes across that way.

Get rid of older, average-at-best guys who are getting paid a bunch of money? Sure. Get rid of younger, currently-average but with greater upside guys who are cheap? That's where you lose me. I get your argument, but I think you need to be more precise in its application.

Hokie has is right. What small market teams can't do is pay market prices for players who are more easily acquired through other avenues. That's the inefficiency in our current roster composition that needs to be addressed.

TRF
04-26-2010, 04:33 PM
Why shouldn't I be obsessed with TOR when the Reds' ceiling the last decade has been league average? A rotation of league average pitchers means this organization will likely never win this division, no matter how many consecutive years we hold that league-average rotation together.

For the record, I think Volquez was pretty darn close to a TOR arm, by the far the closest we've come since Rijo.

Harang in 2006 and 2007 was a TOR starter. In 2005 he showed he was about to be one.

And I'd take those two seasons from Bailey.

Caveat Emperor
04-26-2010, 04:35 PM
Have we not been paying--and will continue to pay--a ransom in cash for mediocrity--Harang, Arroyo, Phillips? It's paying a ransom in cash for mediocrity that prevents so-called small market teams from acquiring TOR guys.

I suppose you can look at it that way, but the joy of the guaranteed contract is that you pay for performance today and risk paying for mediocrity (or outright awful) down the road. The only way to combat what you say is to never sign players to long term deals. Otherwise, you always run the risk of a good deal going south when a player starts to fall off the cliff (as we've seen with Harang).

Plus, you've gotta field a team every year -- you're going to have to spend some money along the way to do that. I guess you could just keep a nest egg of $20 million in the bank waiting for the right big name to come along (and then pray he signs with you and you aren't outbid), but it's a tough sell to the fans that you're pocketing cash waiting for CC Sabathia to pick Cincinnati over New York.

fearofpopvol1
04-26-2010, 04:42 PM
I'm not cherrypicking data. Bailey wasn't all that good when he was "good" in the minors.

534 Ks in 531 IP in the minors wasn't all that good?? 3.6 ERA wasn't that good? What other current pitchers did THAT much better in the minors? He did walk a few too many batters...but I see that as the only real knock. And I think he's improved.

TheNext44
04-26-2010, 05:37 PM
The history of baseball numbers probably 10-12 starters of similar ability who have never amounted to anything for every one you're speaking of. It's not impossible, but to suggest the odds are anything but long for Bailey is simply to ignore massive amounts of data providing bad news.

If you only include those that can throw 95+, I'd say there's probably at least 1-1 ratio. Just guessing, but I'd say based on 30+ years of following the game, at least half the pitchers that could throw 95+ ended up being productive major league pitchers. At least.

_Sir_Charles_
04-26-2010, 05:41 PM
Before todays game, Bailey had hit 95-96 14 times. I haven't had a chance to look into todays game though. Last year he topped out at 98 a few times, but I am not concerned.

As long as he's locating the fastball, I couldn't care less if he's down a few MPH's. For Homer, location is everything IMO.

kaldaniels
04-26-2010, 05:56 PM
You'd be trading him when his value is low AND he's cheap. Plus the season is young.

Now, If it were me, I'd Zambrano Harang, DFA Lincoln, demote Massett and bring up Maloney and Chapman, with Chapman to the pen. It would generate a spark with the fans (Chapman) and Maloney, once the blister heals would be an upgrade over What Harang's been doing. Let him work out his issues in the pen.

Past that, I see what Bailey does. I listen to offers, and I watch the market.

Why Lincoln? He is the least of our concerns right now, given that his contract is a sunk cost.

I think many on here (maybe not you, but many) are (tongue in cheek) mind-controlled to hate on Lincoln, without even looking at his stats. The fact that some on here want to DFA a pitcher on this presently dreadful staff who is carrying a 3.60 ERA is ridiculous. Absolutely ridiculous.

Falls City Beer
04-26-2010, 06:27 PM
It's not wrong to desire TOR and to strive for it. But obsessing over it suggests that you're ignoring meaningful distinctions elsewhere in the spectrum. At the end of the day, the game is getting the most production out of a full roster of 25 guys. Doing anything it takes to land a TOR guy doesn't make your team better if it means being replacement level in the 2-5 spots.

I agree with you that a rotation full of league average makes it awfully tough to win a division. But having a TOR guy and a bunch of crap elsewhere doesn't make it any easier. It's similar to the conversation we're having the other thread.

Your bottom-line assertion that we need more production (e.g. more talent) to be real contenders is correct. But I think you are making the jump from an argument about trying to find ways to get more high-end talent on the roster and applying it so broadly so as to suggest we get rid of anybody and everybody who isn't above average. I know you don't believe that, but it comes across that way.

Get rid of older, average-at-best guys who are getting paid a bunch of money? Sure. Get rid of younger, currently-average but with greater upside guys who are cheap? That's where you lose me. I get your argument, but I think you need to be more precise in its application.

Hokie has is right. What small market teams can't do is pay market prices for players who are more easily acquired through other avenues. That's the inefficiency in our current roster composition that needs to be addressed.

Again, respectfully, for someone who is apparently laser-precise in his fact-checking, you've done an excellent job of fabricating canards that you can attribute to me. Where on earth did I say there isn't a place for average production? Or that I want to jettison anyone who isn't top 10% talent?

My point is very simply: nothing in Homer Bailey's past should preclude the desire to trade him for greater potential/greater distance from MLB impact.

I'm down on Bruce, too, and think he's probably less a player than his early forecasts suggested, but he deserves more rope than Bailey, for a number of reasons, but sitting on a guy simply because he's cheap and league-average (just for those reasons, ignoring what he could bring back in trade) is madness. Bailey is not irreplaceable and approaching him as a commodity as if he were is just bonkers.

In general, I think this board sweats the bottom 10% performers (seriously, how many threads last year became mindless screeds about 1/25th of the roster) and their impact on the win-loss far more than the absence of the top 20%. This team is being crushed by what they don't have, not what they have.

TRF
04-26-2010, 06:49 PM
Why Lincoln? He is the least of our concerns right now, given that his contract is a sunk cost.

I think many on here (maybe not you, but many) are (tongue in cheek) mind-controlled to hate on Lincoln, without even looking at his stats. The fact that some on here want to DFA a pitcher on this presently dreadful staff who is carrying a 3.60 ERA is ridiculous. Absolutely ridiculous.

It isn't preprogrammed hate. I just think its smoke and mirrors. For some reason the Reds did this with Esteban Yan in 2006. He also had a 3.60 ERA. Of course he was walking as many as he K'd, so that might have been a big part of it. I just wonder if Lincoln will hold up or turn back into a pumpkin.

RedsManRick
04-26-2010, 07:17 PM
I'm down on Bruce, too, and think he's probably less a player than his early forecasts suggested, but he deserves more rope than Bailey, for a number of reasons, but sitting on a guy simply because he's cheap and league-average (just for those reasons, ignoring what he could bring back in trade) is madness. Bailey is not irreplaceable and approaching him as a commodity as if he were is just bonkers.

I'm not dead-set against trading anybody and hope I've not convey that I am. But I wonder who exactly you think we could land in a trade of Bailey? (apologies if you've said this and I missed it)

I don't sit on a guy simply because he's cheap and league average, though I'd certainly place a good deal of value on that. Further, I place even greater value on guys who are cheap, young, league average and have significant upside. Sure, you can trade these guys. But I think it's awfully difficult to improve your team by doing so; at best, it's risky.

I prefer a bird in the hand to two in the bush. No prospects are sure things to even reach the levels of Bailey and Bruce. I don't think it makes sense to make a short term play for immediate production -- and I don't think you are suggesting that either. So at this point we'd be trading guys who have developed in to average major leaguers by age 24 (or earlier) and still have significant upside potential for guys who might not ever be even average major leaguers, let alone the level of production they'd need to reach to be an upgrade.

Again, I'm not dead set against trading Bailey, Bruce or who-have-you. But just as some fans suffer from extreme homerism (pun not intended), some seem to suffer from exterme grass-is-greener syndrome. In principal, I'm not against trading anyone. But I am reticent to trade away guys who are in the exact spot those two currently find themselves.

Find me an example of the type of return you'd take for Bailey or whomever and we can discuss it further on those terms.

In the mean-time, I'd prefer to improve the team through means other than getting rid of cheap, high potential guys who are providing solid production as is. Let's clear out the real chaff and improve in those spots rather than trading away the guys who have a relatively high likelihood (compared to others in the organization) of being part of the next successful core.


In general, I think this board sweats the bottom 10% performers (seriously, how many threads last year became mindless screeds about 1/25th of the roster) and their impact on the win-loss far more than the absence of the top 20%. This team is being crushed by what they don't have, not what they have.

Perhaps a fair critique, but I'm not sure what it has to do with this conversation. Bailey is by no means the bottom 10%. As for talking about the missing 20%, what do you want to people to say? Would posts like "I wish we had Roy Halladay and Albert Pujols" be any more interesting to read?

If you think you can land Halladay by trading Bailey, let's have it. But unless you're advocating a complete rebuild a cycle, I'm not sure I see the logic in trading away the guys poised to step in to that role of solid producer with a chance of becoming cornerstone guys themselves.

Absent imagined trades for better talent than we have, we're going to discuss the things that are within the team's immediate control which might improve our chances, namely better utilization of current talent.

dougdirt
04-26-2010, 07:47 PM
FCB, I can't quite figure it out here..... You think Bailey walked too many guys (or walks), but think that Volquez was nearly an ace?

Bailey walked 1.2% more batters in the minors than Volquez did, but was also ahead of him the first few years as far as age/level. Their strikeout rates were 24.5% for Volquez and 24% for Bailey.

In the majors at ages 21-23, Volquez had 12 more strikeouts than walks. Bailey had 35 more strikeouts than walks.

I am not sure, I am just really confused by the statement that Bailey wasn't impressive in the minors, has no track record to show he can be better than a BOR pitcher, but a guy with a nearly identical track record outside of one season (at an age Bailey has yet to make more than 4 starts as) was as close to an ace as they come.

Falls City Beer
04-26-2010, 09:23 PM
FCB, I can't quite figure it out here..... You think Bailey walked too many guys (or walks), but think that Volquez was nearly an ace?

Bailey walked 1.2% more batters in the minors than Volquez did, but was also ahead of him the first few years as far as age/level. Their strikeout rates were 24.5% for Volquez and 24% for Bailey.

In the majors at ages 21-23, Volquez had 12 more strikeouts than walks. Bailey had 35 more strikeouts than walks.

I am not sure, I am just really confused by the statement that Bailey wasn't impressive in the minors, has no track record to show he can be better than a BOR pitcher, but a guy with a nearly identical track record outside of one season (at an age Bailey has yet to make more than 4 starts as) was as close to an ace as they come.

It helps that Volquez came up and dominated as a starter. If Bailey had made a comparable leap into the majors, I'd be singing his praises.

dougdirt
04-26-2010, 09:27 PM
It helps that Volquez came up and dominated as a starter. If Bailey had made a comparable leap into the majors, I'd be singing his praises.

Except at the same age as Bailey is now, Volquez had been a worse MLB pitcher than Bailey has been and its not particularly close. Yet prior to their age 24 seasons, the two looked incredibly similar in terms of career paths.

Falls City Beer
04-26-2010, 09:45 PM
Except at the same age as Bailey is now, Volquez had been a worse MLB pitcher than Bailey has been and its not particularly close. Yet prior to their age 24 seasons, the two looked incredibly similar in terms of career paths.

I'll give Volquez a mulligan for his first brief stint in the majors: he came up in the big boy's league in a brutal home park for pitchers. Bailey has been abysmal in the easiest offensive division in baseball.

Ghosts of 1990
04-26-2010, 09:52 PM
Keep in mind what Albert Pujols said about Homer Bailey:

"If he stays healthy, he's going to be very good for a long time."

dougdirt
04-26-2010, 10:09 PM
I'll give Volquez a mulligan for his first brief stint in the majors: he came up in the big boy's league in a brutal home park for pitchers. Bailey has been abysmal in the easiest offensive division in baseball.

The NL Central isn't exactly the AL East, but don't forget the AL Central gets to play in nice parks like Anaheim, Oakland and Safeco. Cincinnati is its own hitters paradise and also has Chicago which plays more hitter friendly than Cincinnati does.

Falls City Beer
04-26-2010, 10:46 PM
I'm not dead-set against trading anybody and hope I've not convey that I am. But I wonder who exactly you think we could land in a trade of Bailey? (apologies if you've said this and I missed it)

I don't sit on a guy simply because he's cheap and league average, though I'd certainly place a good deal of value on that. Further, I place even greater value on guys who are cheap, young, league average and have significant upside. Sure, you can trade these guys. But I think it's awfully difficult to improve your team by doing so; at best, it's risky.

I prefer a bird in the hand to two in the bush. No prospects are sure things to even reach the levels of Bailey and Bruce. I don't think it makes sense to make a short term play for immediate production -- and I don't think you are suggesting that either. So at this point we'd be trading guys who have developed in to average major leaguers by age 24 (or earlier) and still have significant upside potential for guys who might not ever be even average major leaguers, let alone the level of production they'd need to reach to be an upgrade.

Again, I'm not dead set against trading Bailey, Bruce or who-have-you. But just as some fans suffer from extreme homerism (pun not intended), some seem to suffer from exterme grass-is-greener syndrome. In principal, I'm not against trading anyone. But I am reticent to trade away guys who are in the exact spot those two currently find themselves.

Find me an example of the type of return you'd take for Bailey or whomever and we can discuss it further on those terms.

In the mean-time, I'd prefer to improve the team through means other than getting rid of cheap, high potential guys who are providing solid production as is. Let's clear out the real chaff and improve in those spots rather than trading away the guys who have a relatively high likelihood (compared to others in the organization) of being part of the next successful core.



Perhaps a fair critique, but I'm not sure what it has to do with this conversation. Bailey is by no means the bottom 10%. As for talking about the missing 20%, what do you want to people to say? Would posts like "I wish we had Roy Halladay and Albert Pujols" be any more interesting to read?

If you think you can land Halladay by trading Bailey, let's have it. But unless you're advocating a complete rebuild a cycle, I'm not sure I see the logic in trading away the guys poised to step in to that role of solid producer with a chance of becoming cornerstone guys themselves.

Absent imagined trades for better talent than we have, we're going to discuss the things that are within the team's immediate control which might improve our chances, namely better utilization of current talent.

Considering trade proposals and learning about other teams' minor league systems beats the stuffing out of 200 threads dedicated to Dusty's dice and Wily Taveras. I don't have time to comb other teams' rosters and minor leaguers, and I've always counted on this board to raise some interesting proposals--guys like M2, flyer, etc. have consistently provided worthwhile targets and I like to learn.

Your mileage may vary.

RedsManRick
04-26-2010, 10:52 PM
Considering trade proposals and learning about other teams' minor league systems beats the stuffing out of 200 threads dedicated to Dusty's dice and Wily Taveras. I don't have time to comb other teams' rosters and minor leaguers, and I've always counted on this board to raise some interesting proposals--guys like M2, flyer, etc. have consistently provided worthwhile targets and I like to learn.

Your mileage may vary.

What trade proposals are we considering? Ones we make and debate? Because I participate in those too. If those are the only threads you enjoy, why are you reading ones like this? Nobody is forcing you to click.

And if people would just accept the suckitude of Dusty and Willy, would we have to keep talking about it.

Will M
04-27-2010, 12:16 AM
Keep in mind what Albert Pujols said about Homer Bailey:

"If he stays healthy, he's going to be very good for a long time."

he must have seen the 'good' Homer.

#1 I am sick of watching Homer & Johnny Cueto pitch
#2 The team won't win 75 games unless Homer, Johnny & Jay Bruce develop into above average players
#3 even if #2 happens i doubt we are playoff bound this year
#4 therefore i am will watch Homer & Johnny pitch hoping that they can harness their potential. i think these guys have the talent to give us 200 innings with sub 4.00 ERAs but they have to stay focused each and every pitch. when 'bad' Homer & 'bad' Johnny show up i'll turn off the game. i'm not a masochist

kaldaniels
04-27-2010, 12:30 AM
he must have seen the 'good' Homer.

#1 I am sick of watching Homer & Johnny Cueto pitch
#2 The team won't win 75 games unless Homer, Johnny & Jay Bruce develop into above average players
#3 even if #2 happens i doubt we are playoff bound this year
#4 therefore i am will watch Homer & Johnny pitch hoping that they can harness their potential. i think these guys have the talent to give us 200 innings with sub 4.00 ERAs but they have to stay focused each and every pitch. when 'bad' Homer & 'bad' Johnny show up i'll turn off the game. i'm not a masochist

I'm a simple guy, but what strikes me about Homer and Johnny is, that even if there stuff is electric on a given night, they can't go the distance. By the fifth inning it seems like they are at 80 pitches.

Homer is averaging less than 6 innings a start, but throwing 109 pitches a game on average.

Johnny again less than 6 innings but at 102 pitches a game.

Those numbers may mean nothing at this point...when you give up tons of runs you tend to throw a lot of pitches

At least when Harang or Arroyo are on on a given night, you know they can be pitch efficent enough to go the distance.

TheNext44
04-27-2010, 01:18 AM
he must have seen the 'good' Homer.

#1 I am sick of watching Homer & Johnny Cueto pitch
#2 The team won't win 75 games unless Homer, Johnny & Jay Bruce develop into above average players
#3 even if #2 happens i doubt we are playoff bound this year
#4 therefore i am will watch Homer & Johnny pitch hoping that they can harness their potential. i think these guys have the talent to give us 200 innings with sub 4.00 ERAs but they have to stay focused each and every pitch. when 'bad' Homer & 'bad' Johnny show up i'll turn off the game. i'm not a masochist

I agree. But #2 and #3, along with the fact that they are just 24, is all the more reason not to get too upset. This team is built to be around .500 and if very lucky, maybe in the wild card hunt at the end. Maybe, if very lucky.

So if Cueto and Bailey don't mature until the end of this season, or don't mature this season at all, it really won't matter that much. This year is a great year to watch the team improve, win more games than they did last year, and most importantly watch the young players develop their talents.

fearofpopvol1
04-27-2010, 02:59 AM
I'll give Volquez a mulligan for his first brief stint in the majors: he came up in the big boy's league in a brutal home park for pitchers. Bailey has been abysmal in the easiest offensive division in baseball.

Why give Volquez one and not Bailey? If they were the same age when they first came up? Especially when you consider they BOTH were prematurely rushed to The Show while Bailey had better numbers in the minors? Is GAB not a brutal home park for pitchers too when Bailey first came up (The NL may have the most hitter friendly parks in all of baseball)? Your logic isn't making much sense. I think what it boils down to is you have your biases and you seem to have a tough time admitting that.

Ron Madden
04-27-2010, 05:31 AM
Have we not been paying--and will continue to pay--a ransom in cash for mediocrity--Harang, Arroyo, Phillips? It's paying a ransom in cash for mediocrity that prevents so-called small market teams from acquiring TOR guys.


A very good point, :beerme:

One that I have mentioned myself, on more than one occasion.

Falls City Beer
04-27-2010, 07:52 AM
Why give Volquez one and not Bailey? If they were the same age when they first came up? Especially when you consider they BOTH were prematurely rushed to The Show while Bailey had better numbers in the minors? Is GAB not a brutal home park for pitchers too when Bailey first came up (The NL may have the most hitter friendly parks in all of baseball)? Your logic isn't making much sense. I think what it boils down to is you have your biases and you seem to have a tough time admitting that.

Check the stats, Volquez was still a better pitcher at age 23 than Homer was. It has nothing to do with bias. Is there any denying that the AL is a far more difficult league for a pitcher, especially one whose home park is Arlington? This is even a matter of discussion? If you can't succeed in the NL Central as a pitcher, you're probably not going to have much success anywhere.

nate
04-27-2010, 10:08 AM
I'm a simple guy, but what strikes me about Homer and Johnny is, that even if there stuff is electric on a given night, they can't go the distance. By the fifth inning it seems like they are at 80 pitches.

Homer is averaging less than 6 innings a start, but throwing 109 pitches a game on average.

Johnny again less than 6 innings but at 102 pitches a game.

Those numbers may mean nothing at this point...when you give up tons of runs you tend to throw a lot of pitches

Pitchers that strikeout and walk a lot of batters also throw a lot of pitches.

dougdirt
04-27-2010, 01:24 PM
Check the stats, Volquez was still a better pitcher at age 23 than Homer was. It has nothing to do with bias. Is there any denying that the AL is a far more difficult league for a pitcher, especially one whose home park is Arlington? This is even a matter of discussion? If you can't succeed in the NL Central as a pitcher, you're probably not going to have much success anywhere.

Arlington isn't a much worse park than GABP. The NL Central also doesn't have in division parks like Seattle and Oakland either. Then of course there is the sample as well in the majors. Volquez threw 34 innings. Bailey threw 113.1. It is just more of you seeing what you want and ignoring everything else.

Cedric
04-27-2010, 01:27 PM
What have we got to lose? Keep throwing him out there and hopefully it comes together like it did in August.

Falls City Beer
04-27-2010, 03:19 PM
Arlington isn't a much worse park than GABP. The NL Central also doesn't have in division parks like Seattle and Oakland either. Then of course there is the sample as well in the majors. Volquez threw 34 innings. Bailey threw 113.1. It is just more of you seeing what you want and ignoring everything else.

In roughly 180 innings in 2007 between the minors and MLB, Volquez destroyed the competition. Bailey's never approached numbers like that, and that's not even taking into account the numbers Volquez put up in his first full season as a MLB pitcher.

If your argument is that pitchers develop on their own schedule, then yeah, no disagreement. But if the argument is that we should have the same faith in Bailey as we do in Volquez, no thanks. I know exactly who the superior pitcher is.

dougdirt
04-27-2010, 03:30 PM
In roughly 180 innings in 2007 between the minors and MLB, Volquez destroyed the competition. Bailey's never approached numbers like that, and that's not even taking into account the numbers Volquez put up in his first full season as a MLB pitcher.

If your argument is that pitchers develop on their own schedule, then yeah, no disagreement. But if the argument is that we should have the same faith in Bailey as we do in Volquez, no thanks. I know exactly who the superior pitcher is.

As I showed earlier in the post, Bailey in the minors performed almost exactly like Volquez in the minors despite being ahead of him level wise for a few years. In the major leagues, Bailey performed almost exactly like Volquez did through their age 23 season. And sure, Volquez had a very nice full season at age 24. Bailey is just now in his age 24 season, not yet having turned 24.

And of course you know who the superior pitcher is. You have been anti Homer Bailey for years.

As for faith, I have a ton more faith in Bailey than Volquez. Volquez struggled throwing strikes before TJ surgery. I am concerned that he won't ever be an effective starter again.

TRF
04-27-2010, 04:00 PM
As for faith, I have a ton more faith in Bailey than Volquez. Volquez struggled throwing strikes before TJ surgery. I am concerned that he won't ever be an effective starter again.

no offense, but horse hockey. He was struggling to throw strikes because the ligament was gone. Once he fully recovers, his control will be back, he'll likely get a one year uptick in the speed of his fastball too. Considering he was hitting 98, I'm pleased. That bump in speed won't last but it'll be fun to watch.

Edinson Volquez is the Latin Homer Bailey. They are roughly the same pitcher in regards to results. Both walk a lot of guys, both K a lot of guys. Volquez might throw a little harder, Bailey might go deeper in games over the course of their careers.

Bailey had an outing he can build on. It's time to stop talking about potential and start talking about results though.

fearofpopvol1
04-27-2010, 04:22 PM
Check the stats, Volquez was still a better pitcher at age 23 than Homer was. It has nothing to do with bias. Is there any denying that the AL is a far more difficult league for a pitcher, especially one whose home park is Arlington? This is even a matter of discussion? If you can't succeed in the NL Central as a pitcher, you're probably not going to have much success anywhere.

You're cherrypicking stats while ignoring some important ones. You're comparing fewer innings from Volquez to many more of Homer. And you're ignoring the fact that the AL East includes huge ballparks like Oakland and Seattle. I am all but certain NL Central parks have more HRs than AL East ones do.

fearofpopvol1
04-27-2010, 04:23 PM
Bailey had an outing he can build on. It's time to stop talking about potential and start talking about results though.

When comparing the 2, it can't be ignored that Volquez's breaout season happened when he was 24. Bailey hasn't even turned 24 yet.

dougdirt
04-28-2010, 12:31 PM
no offense, but horse hockey. He was struggling to throw strikes because the ligament was gone. Once he fully recovers, his control will be back, he'll likely get a one year uptick in the speed of his fastball too. Considering he was hitting 98, I'm pleased. That bump in speed won't last but it'll be fun to watch.

Edinson Volquez is the Latin Homer Bailey. They are roughly the same pitcher in regards to results. Both walk a lot of guys, both K a lot of guys. Volquez might throw a little harder, Bailey might go deeper in games over the course of their careers.

Bailey had an outing he can build on. It's time to stop talking about potential and start talking about results though.

Come on TRF.... Volquez in 2008 walked well over 4 batters per 9 innings. His minor league track record, like Baileys too, was full of him struggling to throw strikes for long periods of time. Volquez didn't throw lots of balls because of his ligament issue prior to 2009. The guy has issues throwing strikes.

TRF
04-28-2010, 12:53 PM
Come on TRF.... Volquez in 2008 walked well over 4 batters per 9 innings. His minor league track record, like Baileys too, was full of him struggling to throw strikes for long periods of time. Volquez didn't throw lots of balls because of his ligament issue prior to 2009. The guy has issues throwing strikes.

And Bailey doesn't?

Volquez was effectively wild. 206 K's doesn't mean he has trouble throwing strikes. It means some players didn't bite when his pitches moved. And boy did they move. And his BB's didn't kill him when he's striking out nearly 9 per 9 innings.

You've been dead on comparing him to Bailey. They are essentially the same pitcher in terms of results. A lot of high K pitchers are also high BB pitchers. Homer certainly is no exception. Don't blast Volquez for high BB totals when in his 216 major league innings Bailey's walk rate is a tick higher than Volquez first full year.

And that IMO doesn't mean Bailey is in any way a bust. I'd take two EV's in a heartbeat.

dougdirt
04-28-2010, 12:57 PM
And Bailey doesn't?

Volquez was effectively wild. 206 K's doesn't mean he has trouble throwing strikes. It means some players didn't bite when his pitches moved. And boy did they move. And his BB's didn't kill him when he's striking out nearly 9 per 9 innings.

You've been dead on comparing him to Bailey. They are essentially the same pitcher in terms of results. A lot of high K pitchers are also high BB pitchers. Homer certainly is no exception. Don't blast Volquez for high BB totals when in his 216 major league innings Bailey's walk rate is a tick higher than Volquez first full year.

And that IMO doesn't mean Bailey is in any way a bust. I'd take two EV's in a heartbeat.

Sure Bailey has had similar issues. The main difference is, one guy is coming back from an injury that is known to cause further control problems, especially for the first year after a player gets back. Take a guy who walked 4+ per 9 innings prior to that, and I simply have major concerns about placing that player in a major league rotation because I don't know if he can keep his walks under 5 per 9 for a while. That is the reason I would easily take Bailey over Volquez going forward.

TRF
04-28-2010, 01:34 PM
Sure Bailey has had similar issues. The main difference is, one guy is coming back from an injury that is known to cause further control problems, especially for the first year after a player gets back. Take a guy who walked 4+ per 9 innings prior to that, and I simply have major concerns about placing that player in a major league rotation because I don't know if he can keep his walks under 5 per 9 for a while. That is the reason I would easily take Bailey over Volquez going forward.

You absolutely put him in the rotation. He has to get the feel of pitching again. Liriano is showing the fruits of the Twins patience this year.

Sure, he'll struggle, but he might not. He'll pitch as a Red this year, but I'd have him at AAA unless there is an injury to a starter. Then make him a Sept. callup and pitch him out of the pen this year, rotation next year.

jojo
05-02-2010, 09:43 AM
In roughly 180 innings in 2007 between the minors and MLB, Volquez destroyed the competition.

I think what you're really keying on is the 50+ innings Volquez threw in AAA ball during his age 23 season (his A ball foray wasn't so impressive and for a 23 year old with major league experience, his AA ball numbers aren't that eye popping).

Why is that more impressive than the 60+ innings Homer threw to end his his age 23 season-in the majors?

I think this Volquez vs Homer narrative is a bit tortured as far as pitching evaluation goes (because neither really inform the other)...

Here's a blurb about Volquez's breakout '08 season:


It wouldn't surprise me if Volquez never posted an ERA below 3.50 again.

At issue is his true skill level (an important baseline for predicting his future).

Here's a breakdown of his season using the "half" split.



Volquez 2008
Season IP FIP ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 H/9 BABIP GB% FB% LD% HR/FB xFIP
1st 117.2 3.19 2.30 9.68 4.30 0.38 6.91 0.290 0.53 0.29 0.18 5.7 3.70
2nd 78.1 4.19 4.61 9.22 4.26 1.04 8.87 0.329 0.38 0.41 0.22 10.3 4.28



First, there is no doubt that Volquez took a step forward this season as he established himself as a legitimate major league starter.

That said, his season was a tale of two seasons. Clearly his first half was a hyperbolic one when just looking at his ERA and his second half, well, not so much. That said, looking at his peripherals, he was not a dramatically different fellow but for a couple notable exceptions. Upon closer look, his first half was driven substantially by an extremely low HR/FB rate for a starter (typically this parameter is considered out of control of a pitcher and deviations from 10-11% are expected to regress). He also demonstrated an ability to induce groundballs that was significantly higher than his career to date.

Basically in the second half his HR/FB% and GB% regressed back to expected levels. Mix in half a K less per 9 and a mild swing in his BABIP and not surprisingly, his ERA jumped dramatically.

So the point? I think Volquez's true skill level is probably captured by his "half split" xFIPs, i.e. it's somewhere between 3.70 and 4.30. Right now, it seems reasonable to split the difference and expect a xFIP of 4.00.

From that standpoint, I think an ERA of 4.00 isn't a shocking projection but one of 2.75-3.20 would be highly unlikely.

I also see no reason to expect Volquez to significantly decrease his walk rate moving forward.

Of course, now Volquez has had major surgery...

Caveat Emperor
05-02-2010, 05:36 PM
Homer pitched a very good game yesterday. He's struck out 14 batters in his last 12IP, and walked only 4 in that same time.

Hopefully it's the start of him finding his groove.

Falls City Beer
05-03-2010, 12:21 PM
I think what you're really keying on is the 50+ innings Volquez threw in AAA ball during his age 23 season (his A ball foray wasn't so impressive and for a 23 year old with major league experience, his AA ball numbers aren't that eye popping).

Why is that more impressive than the 60+ innings Homer threw to end his his age 23 season-in the majors?

I think this Volquez vs Homer narrative is a bit tortured as far as pitching evaluation goes (because neither really inform the other)...

Here's a blurb about Volquez's breakout '08 season:



Of course, now Volquez has had major surgery...

No, I'm keying in on his season, which was considerably better than Homer's.

Falls City Beer
05-07-2010, 09:02 PM
Probably not headed to Cooperstown.

M2
05-07-2010, 09:18 PM
The kid's got a 10-cent head. Always has. Always will. Maybe he'll stumble across some success for a season or two somewhere in the future (after he bounces around a bit), but he ain't worth investment.

This is supposed to be his make-good year. The Reds have poured six years, millions of dollars and 43 major league starts into this guy, and he's crapping the bed. He's got no more options, so the team likely will have to live with him for the short term, but it's time to start planning for a future without him.

Falls City Beer
05-07-2010, 09:23 PM
The kid's got a 10-cent head. Always has. Always will. Maybe he'll stumble across some success for a season or two somewhere in the future (after he bounces around a bit), but he ain't worth investment.

This is supposed to be his make-good year. The Reds have poured six years, millions of dollars and 43 major league starts into this guy, and he's crapping the bed. He's got no more options, so the team likely will have to live with him for the short term, but it's time to start planning for a future without him.

Amen. Brett Tomko was a Navy SEAL by comparison.

Gruel for brains.

Benihana
05-07-2010, 09:26 PM
The kid's got a 10-cent head. Always has. Always will. Maybe he'll stumble across some success for a season or two somewhere in the future (after he bounces around a bit), but he ain't worth investment.

This is supposed to be his make-good year. The Reds have poured six years, millions of dollars and 43 major league starts into this guy, and he's crapping the bed. He's got no more options, so the team likely will have to live with him for the short term, but it's time to start planning for a future without him.

Agreed. Let's just hope Volquez and Cueto can be legitimate #3 and #4 starters, and Chapman turns out to be the ace we were hoping for. Homer Bailey is going the way of Sidney Ponson, Daniel Cabrera, Anthony Reyes, and the herds of other highly touted pitching prospects that for whatever reason could never put it together in the big leagues. I wouldn't count on him as a key part of the future.

Falls City Beer
05-07-2010, 09:28 PM
Agreed. Let's just hope Volquez and Cueto can be legitimate #3 and #4 starters, and Chapman turns out to be the ace we were hoping for. Homer Bailey is going the way of Sidney Ponson, Daniel Cabrera, Anthony Reyes, and the herds of other highly touted pitching prospects that for whatever reason could never put it together.

Not "for whatever reason." Several of us saw the writing on the wall a looong time ago.

Blend in "he's being developed by the Reds' farm system" and the prognosis was never terribly good.

Joseph
05-07-2010, 09:51 PM
Agreed. Let's just hope Volquez and Cueto can be legitimate #3 and #4 starters, and Chapman turns out to be the ace we were hoping for. Homer Bailey is going the way of Sidney Ponson, Daniel Cabrera, Anthony Reyes, and the herds of other highly touted pitching prospects that for whatever reason could never put it together in the big leagues. I wouldn't count on him as a key part of the future.

Cueto is in a trailer hitched to the truck Homer is driving towards bustdom. Put your eggs in that basket and you aren't going to be happy.

Benihana
05-07-2010, 09:58 PM
Cueto is in a trailer hitched to the truck Homer is driving towards bustdom. Put your eggs in that basket and you aren't going to be happy.

I think Cueto can be a serviceable #4 starter. Unlike Bailey, he's done it in the past and his career numbers show improvement.

Falls City Beer
05-07-2010, 09:59 PM
Cueto is in a trailer hitched to the truck Homer is driving towards bustdom. Put your eggs in that basket and you aren't going to be happy.

Cueto's been far from good, I agree. But I do think you have to give him a bit more breathing space than Homer; Cueto's control has never been close to as bad as Bailey's, and frankly, he strikes me as a bit more intelligent and coachable than Bailey.

I know folks harp on Bailey's supposed "electric" stuff, but I've just never been terribly wowed by it. Flat, straight, and hard to control. Toxic brew.

OnBaseMachine
05-07-2010, 10:06 PM
Cueto doesn't belong anywhere near a bust list, IMO. He was one of the best starters in the game last season except for about a 7-8 game stretch in the middle of the season. So far this season he has three pretty good starts, one so-so game, and two bad but not awful starts ( 6 IP, 5 R, and 5 IP, 4 R)

M2
05-07-2010, 10:21 PM
Amen. Brett Tomko was a Navy SEAL by comparison.

Gruel for brains.

Could I love a post more than that one?

No I could not.

flyer85
05-07-2010, 10:29 PM
I'd move Cueto and Bailey to the pen. The great heater with an inability to command it screams bullpen

Will M
05-08-2010, 12:13 AM
Cueto doesn't belong anywhere near a bust list, IMO. He was one of the best starters in the game last season except for about a 7-8 game stretch in the middle of the season. So far this season he has three pretty good starts, one so-so game, and two bad but not awful starts ( 6 IP, 5 R, and 5 IP, 4 R)

Cueto & Bailey are about the same age.
Cueto's career numbers dwarf Bailey's.

From my standpoint Cueto is a bit of a disappointment & I wonder if he would be better in the pen. Bailey is terrible & I would be happy if we traded him tomorrow for someone else's failed prospect. I would honestly rather see Maloney get 26 starts this year than Homer continue to pitch.

CrackerJack
05-08-2010, 12:24 AM
They really need to put Bailey in the pen and bring someone up, Owings should stay in his role.

There are plenty of replaceables in the bullpen and despite playing around .500, they need to deal with the issues. Fisher's an obvious choice to demote.

cincrazy
05-08-2010, 01:37 AM
Is it just me, or has Homer's velocity dropped? I've missed some of his starts, but last season at the end of the year, it seemed that he was consistently sitting at or above 95 mph, whereas this year it's back down to 91-92 mph. This could be an inaccurate observation, so please correct me if I'm wrong.

Either way, he's been dreadful.

WVRedsFan
05-08-2010, 01:45 AM
Remember when Walt offered Homer for Dye and everyone screamed? Well, I'd still do that trade with even other players ten times to Sunday. Homer has all the tools but doesn't know how to use them. Someday, he might figure it out, but for now it's time to cut bait. JMO.

CTA513
05-08-2010, 01:48 AM
Remember when Walt offered Homer for Dye and everyone screamed? Well, I'd still do that trade with even other players ten times to Sunday. Homer has all the tools but doesn't know how to use them. Someday, he might figure it out, but for now it's time to cut bait. JMO.

Dye can't even find a job right now.

kaldaniels
05-08-2010, 01:50 AM
Remember when Walt offered Homer for Dye and everyone screamed? Well, I'd still do that trade with even other players ten times to Sunday. Homer has all the tools but doesn't know how to use them. Someday, he might figure it out, but for now it's time to cut bait. JMO.

One bad month as of today. The month before that he was arguably the best in the NL.

That's not cut-bait material to me. Its just debateable where to put him.

WVRedsFan
05-08-2010, 02:38 AM
Dye can't even find a job right now.

Yeah, but are you willing to wait foe Homer to come around and put up qith the mistakes and mistales and not the run production?

reds44
05-08-2010, 02:40 AM
One bad month as of today. The month before that he was arguably the best in the NL.

That's not cut-bait material to me. Its just debateable where to put him.
Career ERA of 5.70.

He's horrible. He gets hit more than Rihanna did.

KronoRed
05-08-2010, 02:56 AM
He's likely to be grabbed on waivers and the pen seems like a waste of time for him, trade him.

CTA513
05-08-2010, 02:58 AM
Yeah, but are you willing to wait foe Homer to come around and put up qith the mistakes and mistales and not the run production?

If you can get a good return then trade him, but I'm going to bet the next young pitchers brought up will struggle just like Cueto and Bailey have.

jmcclain19
05-08-2010, 03:38 AM
Is it just me, or has Homer's velocity dropped? I've missed some of his starts, but last season at the end of the year, it seemed that he was consistently sitting at or above 95 mph, whereas this year it's back down to 91-92 mph. This could be an inaccurate observation, so please correct me if I'm wrong.

Either way, he's been dreadful.

Fangraphs PitchFX data has Homer losing 2 mph on his FB this year

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=8362&position=P

It also has him using it almost 20% less of the time in 2010. Although he's been using a 2 seamer more, it still translates to less heat and more breaking stuff.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fgraphs/8362_P_0_20100501.png

Will M
05-08-2010, 03:48 AM
He's likely to be grabbed on waivers and the pen seems like a waste of time for him, trade him.

Homer will likely mature & win 15 games a year for some other team. probably St Louis. but i think it will never happen as a Red. i would trade him for another team's failed prospect/headache in a classic 'change of scenery' move for Homer & the other player involved.

We have Maloney (ready) as well as Chapman/Wood (both near ready).

No more Homer please. My wife walked into the living room tonight and asked 'why do you torture yourself with the Reds so much?' when she saw Homer pitching she said "i have better things to do than watch that"

GAC
05-08-2010, 05:21 AM
Last season he finished 6-1 with a 1.70 ERA over his final nine starts. This year he's 0-2 with an ERA over 7. And he's all over the place and hits troughs where he can't find the plate.

According to Chris Welsh, Homer is still trying to find his release point.

He better find his before the Reds find theirs. :D

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100507&content_id=9869050&vkey=recap&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin


Bailey said of his season. "I've been having trouble with the [split-fingered fastball]. I can't find the putaway pitch right now. I'll go back to work and see if we can figure it out. I'm sure it's something we can work out pretty quick."

When asked about his young starter not finding a groove, Baker indicated that he was not worried and that Bailey's place in the rotation seemed secure.

"We just have to keep sending him back out there. He'll find it," Baker said.

And at this point there's really not much else you can do. Call up Chapman? Yeah right. He's showing the same inconsistency of high pitch counts early and walks.

You just keep throwing Bailey out there this year and hope he finds whatever it is he's looking for.

mth123
05-08-2010, 05:32 AM
2010 is the year to work through this stuff. The team is filled with a number of not ready for prime time players, some will do well from the get go (Leake for example), some will be up and down, some will never get it. Despite the emotional knee jerk reactions to Homer, Stubbs, Cueto, Masset, etc, early May is too soon to cut bait on any of them.

The veteren position players on this team are mostly awful. Phillips is a platoon guy who frequently isn't a good player, Hernandez hasn't been any good since 2006, Cabrera seems to have lost a lot from his days as a valuable player, some of the young veterans like Gomes, Nix, Hanigan, Dickerson and Janish aren't all that young and really weren't anything special as minor leaguers. This team isn't going anywhere even if they had the 71 Orioles rotation.

Being open to dealing these guys for a good return is always a good idea, but cutting bait now on guys who were brought to the majors before they were fully cooked and are still busy cooking before our eyes simply to bring up a bunch of other kids who aren't fully cooked to restart the cycle is a road to no where. Let Chapman, Wood, Heisey, Francisco, Frazier, Valaika, Cozart et al put up a good year in AAA before pushing aside the previous group who frankly were better than those guys were at a similar point.

Homer and Cueto get all of 2010 IMO. Young pitchers struggle. We should be looking for similar guys that other teams want to cut bait on not giving away the ones we have. I wonder what it would take to get Cole Hamels.

HokieRed
05-08-2010, 09:54 AM
I like Baker's comments on Homer and the rest of the young uns for that matter. He gets my vote for an extension. He actually knows what it takes to play this game.

mth123
05-08-2010, 10:08 AM
I like Baker's comments on Homer and the rest of the young uns for that matter. He gets my vote for an extension. He actually knows what it takes to play this game.

I'm coming around to this as well. I still hate his line-ups.

IslandRed
05-08-2010, 10:47 AM
Being open to dealing these guys for a good return is always a good idea, but cutting bait now on guys who were brought to the majors before they were fully cooked and are still busy cooking before our eyes simply to bring up a bunch of other kids who aren't fully cooked to restart the cycle is a road to nowhere.

Quoted for truth.

At the same time, it doesn't change the realities of the situation. The Reds are not consciously punting 2010 as a development year -- not yet, anyway -- and Bailey's out of options. Dusty's soothing patience aside, they're not going to keep running him out there indefinitely if he doesn't turn it around. If they have to take him out of the rotation, I think the bullpen's worth a try; sometimes the simplified nature of the task ("one inning, throw gas") can help guys like this. A trade is also a possibility, but once a guy has the whiff of Future DFA about him, we're not going to get a whole lot in return.

OUReds
05-08-2010, 11:05 AM
2010 is the year to work through this stuff. The team is filled with a number of not ready for prime time players, some will do well from the get go (Leake for example), some will be up and down, some will never get it. Despite the emotional knee jerk reactions to Homer, Stubbs, Cueto, Masset, etc, early May is too soon to cut bait on any of them.

I agree almost entirely. Homer is going to get all (or at least most) of 2010. All the young players will get graded then, and only then.

_Sir_Charles_
05-08-2010, 11:17 AM
Fickle, fickle bunch here. Homer's last two outings were trending up. Yes, he had a stinker yesterday. Give the kid time. I know it seems like he's been here forever, remember his age guys. Yes, he got rushed way too early...that just means we have to look at his CURRENT development in a different way than the normal young starter. Give him time.

MikeS21
05-08-2010, 11:22 AM
By about the 4th inning of Friday night's game, I was ready to DFA Homer. But, a little perspective is needed.

The kid is barely 24 years old. Most pitchers are 26-27 years old when they finally put it all together. There are very few 24 year old superstar pitchers. His stretch at the end of last season proves he has what it takes to win at the major league level. But consistency probably won't come for a another year or two.

We knew there would be growing pains this year with Bailey and Cueto and Leake. Mike Leake has done well thus far, but his time is coming, and when that happens, most of us around here will self-destruct. I think the greater issue is that too many of us fell prey to the off-season hype of nice press the young pitchers got, and now we're disappointed the Reds aren't ten games up in the standings over every one else in the NL Central after only 29 games. Bringing Chapman or Maloney up isn't going to help. They will struggle too.

These young guys are going to struggle. But they are still young. Give them time to grow up.

Also keep in mind that as bad as the starting rotation has been thus far, the Reds are still in second place in the NL Central.

_Sir_Charles_
05-08-2010, 11:28 AM
By about the 4th inning of Friday night's game, I was ready to DFA Homer. But, a little perspective is needed.

The kid is barely 24 years old. Most pitchers are 26-27 years old when they finally put it all together. There are very few 24 year old superstar pitchers. His stretch at the end of last season proves he has what it takes to win at the major league level. But consistency probably won't come for a another year or two.

We knew there would be growing pains this year with Bailey and Cueto and Leake. Mike Leake has done well thus far, but his time is coming, and when that happens, most of us around here will self-destruct. I think the greater issue is that too many of us fell prey to the off-season hype of nice press the young pitchers got, and now we're disappointed the Reds aren't ten games up in the standings over every one else in the NL Central after only 29 games. Bringing Chapman or Maloney up isn't going to help. They will struggle too.

These young guys are going to struggle. But they are still young. Give them time to grow up.

Also keep in mind that as bad as the starting rotation has been thus far, the Reds are still in second place in the NL Central.

+1 Nice post

Brutus
05-08-2010, 11:53 AM
I haven't looked at any FX data, as I'm sure perhaps Doug or Rick have done, but I honestly get the impression from watching Homer this year that his big problem - in addition to command - is that he's simply not getting much movement on his pitches.

His fastball has been straight as an arrow this year. Velocity has been down a bit from where he was throwing late last year, but I really think the movement is hurting him. Balls are being thrown near the middle of the zone at times, with the expectation that they'll fall to the edges or out of it, and it's just not happening.

Perhaps it's a figment of my imagination. However, I watch him pitch and I just don't see enough deception.

mth123
05-08-2010, 12:57 PM
I haven't looked at any FX data, as I'm sure perhaps Doug or Rick have done, but I honestly get the impression from watching Homer this year that his big problem - in addition to command - is that he's simply not getting much movement on his pitches.

His fastball has been straight as an arrow this year. Velocity has been down a bit from where he was throwing late last year, but I really think the movement is hurting him. Balls are being thrown near the middle of the zone at times, with the expectation that they'll fall to the edges or out of it, and it's just not happening.

Perhaps it's a figment of my imagination. However, I watch him pitch and I just don't see enough deception.

IMO his biggest problem is that he isn't throwing his fastball enough and his other pitches aren't up to snuff at this point and he's getting killed on them. He should move his fastball around in the zone and use it as his put away pitch. Its his best pitch use it and on both the inside corner as well as the outside corner. Last night it was all outside most of the time. Show the curve, the split, the slider, etc a bit to keep things honest. Figure out which are working on a given day and use only those and only strategically. The ones that aren't working should be kept in his back pocket until he has a side session or two to get them corrected. In the mean time, he should throw the heat about 75 to 85% of the time.

He seems to be getting ahead 1-2 on a lot of hitters by using his FB, then he plays with the other stuff until the count is full and he either walks guys or lays one in there that is easy to hit. When the secondary stuff is on, that pitching pattern works OK, but when certain pitches aren't working he needs to shelve those other pitches for that game.

Will M
05-08-2010, 03:19 PM
Being open to dealing these guys for a good return is always a good idea, but cutting bait now on guys who were brought to the majors before they were fully cooked and are still busy cooking before our eyes simply to bring up a bunch of other kids who aren't fully cooked to restart the cycle is a road to no where. Let Chapman, Wood, Heisey, Francisco, Frazier, Valaika, Cozart et al put up a good year in AAA before pushing aside the previous group who frankly were better than those guys were at a similar point.

Homer and Cueto get all of 2010 IMO. Young pitchers struggle. We should be looking for similar guys that other teams want to cut bait on not giving away the ones we have. I wonder what it would take to get Cole Hamels.

you bring up a good point about the team bringing up young players before they are ready. why can't a player bunt? field his position? take a walk? throw his offspeed pitches for strikes? etc. The answer is because he has not mastered the basics of the game in the minors. Francisco is a good example. A fair number of people (myself included) question if he can be a success in the bigs with his approach. yet he is down in AAA hacking away.

however, Homer may be 'water under the bridge' as far as this goes. if he was brought up to the bigs & had his options burned before he was ready, well its too late to send him back to AAA. we either have to stick with him or dump him.

so i agree that bringing up a guy who isn't ready (say Wood) to replace Bailey is a poor idea. Wood needs to throw more strikes in AAA before he gets a callup. However, Maloney is ready now. so the question would be: what are the chances that Homer will ever amount to anything as a Red? if the answer is near zero then get rid of him & replace him with Maloney. if the answer is 25%then keep Homer in the rotation (for his so called potential) and call up Maloney to replace Fisher in the pen.

IMO Bailey, Arroyo, Harang & Cueto should be talked to. it should be made clear to them that ERAs north of 6 are unacceptable & that there are 2-3 guys in AAA ready or near ready to take their job. if they don't improve the club will move on: Bailey (trade), Arroyo (trade), Harang (trade/DFA), Cueto (move to pen)

Benihana
05-08-2010, 04:18 PM
By about the 4th inning of Friday night's game, I was ready to DFA Homer. But, a little perspective is needed.

The kid is barely 24 years old. Most pitchers are 26-27 years old when they finally put it all together. There are very few 24 year old superstar pitchers. His stretch at the end of last season proves he has what it takes to win at the major league level. But consistency probably won't come for a another year or two.

We knew there would be growing pains this year with Bailey and Cueto and Leake. Mike Leake has done well thus far, but his time is coming, and when that happens, most of us around here will self-destruct. I think the greater issue is that too many of us fell prey to the off-season hype of nice press the young pitchers got, and now we're disappointed the Reds aren't ten games up in the standings over every one else in the NL Central after only 29 games. Bringing Chapman or Maloney up isn't going to help. They will struggle too.

These young guys are going to struggle. But they are still young. Give them time to grow up.

Also keep in mind that as bad as the starting rotation has been thus far, the Reds are still in second place in the NL Central.

There is a difference.

Year Age Tm Lg W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB Awards
2007 21 CIN NL 4 2 .667 5.76 9 9 0 0 0 0 45.1 43 32 29 3 28 1 28 3 1 1 205 81 1.566 8.5 0.6 5.6 5.6 1.00
2008 22 CIN NL 0 6 .000 7.93 8 8 0 0 0 0 36.1 59 36 32 8 17 1 18 0 1 4 180 56 2.092 14.6 2.0 4.2 4.5 1.06
2009 23 CIN NL 8 5 .615 4.53 20 20 0 0 0 0 113.1 115 61 57 12 52 1 86 3 0 6 496 95 1.474 9.1 1.0 4.1 6.8 1.65
2010 24 CIN NL 0 2 .000 7.24 6 6 0 0 0 0 32.1 42 27 26 6 18 1 30 2 1 2 157 60 1.856 11.7 1.7 5.0 8.4 1.67
4 Seasons 12 15 .444 5.70 43 43 0 0 0 0 227.1 259 156 144 29 115 4 162 8 3 13 1038 77 1.645 10.3 1.1 4.6 6.4 1.41

That doesn't look like progress to me. Clay Buchholz and Phil Hughes are the other two pitchers that were drafted out of HS in the 2004 draft, and have been compared to Homer all the way through the minors. Sure they've had their share of struggles in adapting to the big leagues, but look at what they are doing this year (in the AL East no less). I am fine with accepting growing pains from any of out pitchers, but at this point I'm just not sure if that's what we're seeing with Homer. I think we are more seeing mediocre stats from a mediocre pitcher. As always, I hope I'm wrong and I hope he puts it together, but I'm certainly not counting on it.

fearofpopvol1
05-12-2010, 03:59 PM
What a dominating start by Bailey. It really was almost as impressive as Cueto. He just gave up 3 more hits and didn't punch out as many batters...but he threw fewer pitches and didn't walk a single batter. Very impressed with Bailey today.

Chip R
05-18-2010, 05:28 PM
What is, sign him long term, Alex?

TRF
05-18-2010, 05:35 PM
Bailey's last 2 starts, 16 IP, 10 K's 2 ER.

not bad.

Benihana
05-18-2010, 05:40 PM
What is, sign him long term, Alex?

Whoa.

You are talking about the gentleman with the 5.66 ERA, correct? The guy with a career ERA of 5.48 with a 1.60 WHIP (ironically, both numbers close to his totals so far for this season.)

I'm still MUCH more interested in Cueto at this point, although it is nice to see Bailey string together a couple nice starts. Let's hope he continues the trend tonight...

bucksfan2
05-18-2010, 05:42 PM
Bailey's last 2 starts, 16 IP, 10 K's 2 ER.

not bad.

Starts like today are impressive. Got rattled a little bit in the 1st inning but rebounded nicely. Giving up 2 runs in the first and then pitching shut out baseball over the next 5 or so innings was impressive. Some may disagree but I think Homer has made great strides in the mental game this season.

Chip R
05-18-2010, 05:47 PM
Whoa.

You are talking about the gentleman with the 5.66 ERA, correct? The guy with a career ERA of 5.48 with a 1.60 WHIP (ironically, both numbers close to his totals so far for this season.)



The original question was, "if this keeps up, what to do with him." If he allows 1 run or less ech time out, then signing him long term would be prudent.

Now it's hyperbole to suggest that that he will continue to pitch like that but it's the flip side of the coin in this thread.

RedsManRick
05-18-2010, 05:52 PM
I cleaned up your data Beni. Try posting the data to notepad first, cleaning it up, and then pasting it with code tags.


Year Age Tm Lg W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB Awards
2007 21 CIN NL 4 2 .667 5.76 9 9 0 0 0 0 45.1 43 32 29 3 28 1 28 3 1 1 205 81 1.566 8.5 0.6 5.6 5.6 1.00
2008 22 CIN NL 0 6 .000 7.93 8 8 0 0 0 0 36.1 59 36 32 8 17 1 18 0 1 4 180 56 2.092 14.6 2.0 4.2 4.5 1.06
2009 23 CIN NL 8 5 .615 4.53 20 20 0 0 0 0 113.1 115 61 57 12 52 1 86 3 0 6 496 95 1.474 9.1 1.0 4.1 6.8 1.65
2010 24 CIN NL 0 2 .000 7.24 6 6 0 0 0 0 32.1 42 27 26 6 18 1 30 2 1 2 157 60 1.856 11.7 1.7 5.0 8.4 1.67
4 Seasons 12 15 .444 5.70 43 43 0 0 0 0 227.1 259 156 144 29 115 4 162 8 3 13 1038 77 1.645 10.3 1.1 4.6 6.4 1.41

A few observations:

He's still just 24. Many very good pitchers aren't aces at age 24
He actually hasn't pitched that much -- he only has 1.5 seasons worth of starts
His K/9 and BB/9 are clearly improving; though the former much more so than the latter


With today's start, he's down to a 5.21 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, with a 7.5 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9. Stellar? No. Deserving of being voted off the island? No. I continue to be amazed by people who want to draw conclusions quickly. In his last full season, he was a league average starter. His career numbers are poor in part because he was jerked around at ages 21 & 22. He put up very poor numbers and wasn't given time to establish a relationship with a pitching coach who could help him develop.

If all Homer ever becomes is a guy who can eat innings with a 4.50 ERA, that's a very useful thing. Sure, we'd all be disappointed, but let's keep proper perspective. He belongs in the majors, period. Maybe he'll be an ace one day. Maybe he'll be mid-rotation filler. Or maybe he's a swing man. But he's a major league caliber pitcher.

Sea Ray
05-18-2010, 05:53 PM
Whoa.

You are talking about the gentleman with the 5.66 ERA, correct? The guy with a career ERA of 5.48 with a 1.60 WHIP (ironically, both numbers close to his totals so far for this season.)

I'm still MUCH more interested in Cueto at this point, although it is nice to see Bailey string together a couple nice starts. Let's hope he continues the trend tonight...

The only thing he's going to be doing tonight is celebrating the Reds win on the flight to Atlanta

_Sir_Charles_
05-18-2010, 06:20 PM
Whoa.

You are talking about the gentleman with the 5.66 ERA, correct? The guy with a career ERA of 5.48 with a 1.60 WHIP (ironically, both numbers close to his totals so far for this season.)

I'm still MUCH more interested in Cueto at this point, although it is nice to see Bailey string together a couple nice starts. Let's hope he continues the trend tonight...

Did you miss that it was a day game today?

Homer Bailey
05-18-2010, 07:19 PM
Did you miss that it was a day game today?

That has potential to be very hilarious.

Benihana
05-18-2010, 07:50 PM
:oops:

Benihana
05-18-2010, 07:59 PM
I cleaned up your data Beni. Try posting the data to notepad first, cleaning it up, and then pasting it with code tags.

With today's start, he's down to a 5.21 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, with a 7.5 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9. Stellar? No. Deserving of being voted off the island? No. I continue to be amazed by people who want to draw conclusions quickly. In his last full season, he was a league average starter. His career numbers are poor in part because he was jerked around at ages 21 & 22. He put up very poor numbers and wasn't given time to establish a relationship with a pitching coach who could help him develop

If all Homer ever becomes is a guy who can eat innings with a 4.50 ERA, that's a very useful thing. Sure, we'd all be disappointed, but let's keep proper perspective. He belongs in the majors, period. Maybe he'll be an ace one day. Maybe he'll be mid-rotation filler. Or maybe he's a swing man. But he's a major league caliber pitcher.

Thanks for the help.

I can't really disagree with any of what you say here. At worst, he is probably a serviceable #5 starter. Obviously he has a lot more upside than that, but it has been frustrating to see his breakdowns over the years.

My main argument earlier in the thread has to do with the comparisons between hm and Cueto. Even after today's outing (which I failed to acknowledge a couple posts ago because I was blatantly unaware of the day game) I would still much prefer Cueto to Bailey. That could change of course, but I take exception to those that think it's even close at this point. Johnny Cueto has improved his ERA by almost half of a run each year, and is a legitimate #2 starter right now. Homer may have the potential to get there one day, but his performance both in the past as well as this year suggests that he is not yet approaching that level.

RedsManRick
05-18-2010, 08:16 PM
Thanks for the help.

I can't really disagree with any of what you say here. At worst, he is probably a serviceable #5 starter. Obviously he has a lot more upside than that, but it has been frustrating to see his breakdowns over the years.

My main argument earlier in the thread has to do with the comparisons between hm and Cueto. Even after today's outing (which I failed to acknowledge a couple posts ago because I was blatantly unaware of the day game) I would still much prefer Cueto to Bailey. That could change of course, but I take exception to those that think it's even close at this point. Johnny Cueto has improved his ERA by almost half of a run each year, and is a legitimate #2 starter right now. Homer may have the potential to get there one day, but his performance both in the past as well as this year suggests that he is not yet approaching that level.

I can't say I disagree with you there either. But I do think it's important that we remember Cueto has 25 more major league starts than Homer and two full seasons in the majors. Developmentally, Homer is behind. I think this time next year we'll have a MUCH better picture of what final product Homer is going to look like.