Reds stats through ten games

[Kc61]

Reds are 5-5 after opening three series. 3-3 at home, 2-2- on the road. Opponents were Cards, Cubs, Marlins.

Offense - Team OPS is .691, 14th in the NL. OBP is .298, 15th in the league. SLG is .392, 13th in the NL. BA is .236, 13th in league.

Reds have K'd 85 times, most in the NL (although Reds have played more games than most teams). Reds have walked 30 times, tied for 14th-15th.

Only two regular players with OPS over .800 are Gomes (.856) and Rolen (.842).

Pitching - Team ERA is 5.34, 13th in the NL. Some good performances, Owings in relief at 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA. Cordero 4 for 4 in saves. Leake with one start, but a good one. Arroyo at 3.86. All wins have been recorded by relievers so far.

In three starts, Harang is 0-2, 7.88 ERA. Harang has allowed 5 homers in 16 innings.

Fielding - .985 fielding percentage with 6 errors, near best in league. DER is 7th in the league.

[Falls City Beer]

No RS/RA?

[membengal]

10th in Runs scored. 5th in homeruns hit.

15th in Runs allowed. 4th in homeruns allowed.

[membengal]

In, sum, they are not hitting well and not pitching well. In fact, they did both pretty abysmally over the first 10 games.

Which makes me rather happy with their 5-5 record.

Suffice it to say, they will need to both hit and pitch a lot better in the near future to remain at or near .500.

[Kc61]

10th in Runs scored. 5th in homeruns hit.

15th in Runs allowed. 4th in homeruns allowed.

Yes, 43 runs scored, 55 allowed.

[membengal]

There are two general camps on this board, as near as I can tell:

The camp that is
the-Reds-probably-have-enough-pitching-the-hitting-is-the-issue

and

The camp that is
the-Reds-may-have-enough-hitting-the-pitching-is-the-issue.

I make that generalizaton regarding the coversations that have occurred on this board over the off-season and into spring training broadly and fully acknowledge it lacks nuance. I do think it captures the general gist of a lot of conversations.

That stated, all the first ten games has done is give ammunition to both camps.

[nate]

They're also:

*2nd to last in NL wOBA: .304 (Astros: .233 - wow, that's bad!)
*4th from last in FIP: 4.84 (Brewers, Pirates, Nats all worse)
*impossible to say anything about the defense right now other than the team ERA is a lot higher than the team FIP as opposed to last year when the team ERA was much lower than the FIP.

So this says to me, the team isn't getting on base or hitting for power. The pitching isn't striking out guys, walking too many and serving up the longball. Finally, the defense isn't helping out the pitching.

So far in this nascent season, that is.

[Falls City Beer]

They're also:

*2nd to last in NL wOBA: .304 (Astros: .233 - wow, that's bad!)
*4th from last in FIP: 4.84 (Brewers, Pirates, Nats all worse)
*impossible to say anything about the defense right now other than the team ERA is a lot higher than the team FIP as opposed to last year when the team ERA was much lower than the FIP.

So this says to me, the team isn't getting on base or hitting for power. The pitching isn't striking out guys, walking too many and serving up the longball. Finally, the defense isn't helping out the pitching.

So far in this nascent season, that is.

While I'm comfortable in assuming that all aspects of the Reds will improve from this numbers this season, you have to beging to calibrate ceilings against what's actually happening right now--and, let's face it, the ceiling is low. So yeah, bad team.

[Falls City Beer]

How quickly will Chapman be rushed to the majors now? Over/under on date of shoulder surgery?

[Spring~Fields]

No real surprises here to date, most of the offense was covered by several during the off season. More than changing faces has to be done, the actual production numbers attached to those faces must be upgraded, to get upgraded outcomes and results.



2010 G AB OBP SLG OPS
1.Phillies 9 322 .395 1.Phillies .528 1.Phils .923
2.Dodgers 9 335 .385 2.Arizona .494 2.LAD .875
3.Giants 9 313 .362 3 Dodgers .490 3.AZ .854
4.Arizona 9 316 .360 4.Giants .470 4.SF .832
5.Brewers 9 306 .355 5.Rockies .456 5.MIL .806
6.Marlins 10 367 .350 6.Brewers .451 6.COL .798
7.Rockies 9 316 .343 7.Cubs .435 7.FLA .778
8.Mets 9 304 .337 8.Marlins .428 8.CHI .759
9.Nationals 9 296 .336 9.Cardinals .421 9.STL .737
10.Braves 9 315 .328 10.Pirates .397 10.Natl .732
11.Cubs 9 292 .324 11.Nationals .395 11.NYM .732
12.Pirates 9 307 .321 12.Mets .395 12.PTS .718
13.Cardinals 9 304 .316 13.Reds .392 13.SD .700
14.Padres 9 323 .316 14.Padres .384 14.CIN .691
15.Reds 10 339 .298 15.Braves .362 15.ATL .690
16.Astros 9 300 .242 16.Astros .290 16.HOU .532


2009 Season BA OBP SLG OPS
Reds .247 15th .318 15th .394 13th .712 13th
2008 Season
Reds .247 16th .321 14th .408 11th .729 12th


BA H BB SO
1.Dodgers .316 8.Reds 80 15.Reds 30 1.Reds 85
2.Phillies .311
3.Giants .297 HR
4.Arizona .282 5.Reds 12
5.Marlins .278
6.Brewers .275 R
7.Rockies .269 10.Reds 43
8.Cubs .247
9.Pirates .244
10.Mets .243
11.Padres .241
12.Cardinals .240
13.Reds .236
14.Nationals .233
15.Braves .232
16.Astros .220
* Red Flags above, early warning indicators

[Homer Bailey]

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2010 Cincinnati Reds!

[RedsManRick]

What's funny is that despite all of this we're still 5-5. It's hardly fair to suggest that the first 10 games of the season tell us anything new that we didn't know about this team 2 weeks ago.

[Spring~Fields]

What's funny is that despite all of this we're still 5-5. It's hardly fair to suggest that the first 10 games of the season tell us anything new that we didn't know about this team 2 weeks ago.

Or the second week of October of last year. :)

They'll get better. Their numbers are still way to low for them.

The problem is, if there is one, that the competition out there has some numbers of their own.

[TheNext44]

And yet, they are 5-5 after having played probably the best team in NL, and two other likely contending teams, and faced 4 TOR starters.

Team stats at this stage are fun, I really appreciate Kc61 for putting these threads together throughout the season. But after ten games not much can be concluded. One bad game out of ten can really skew them big time.

I have to believe that before last nights game, the pitching staff was closer to the middle of the pack in most stats. The offense has been pretty bad so far, but that's mostly because Votto, Phillips and Bruce have under performed, with Bruce at sub replacement value so far. Also no position player is really producing well over their heads, except for Hanigan and Janish who have a total 17 PA's.

If Votto is still batting worse than Laynce Nix, Phillips worse than Jerry Hairston and Bruce worse that Willy Taveras, in June, then I'll be worried. But until then, I'm actually optimistic, since I know that are going to play better than they have so far, and so far they are at .500.

[OnBaseMachine]

It's amazing the difference a game or two can make this early in the season. When I looked at the pitching stats a couple days ago the Reds had the 4th or 5th best ERA in the league. Now a couple games later they rank near the bottom.

[Spring~Fields]

And yet, they are 5-5 after having played probably the best team in NL, and two other likely contending teams, and faced 4 TOR starters.

Team stats at this stage are fun, I really appreciate Kc61 for putting these threads together throughout the season. But after ten games not much can be concluded. One bad game out of ten can really skew them big time.

I have to believe that before last nights game, the pitching staff was closer to the middle of the pack in most stats. The offense has been pretty bad so far, but that's mostly because Votto, Phillips and Bruce have under performed, with Bruce at sub replacement value so far. Also no position player is really producing well over their heads, except for Hanigan and Janish who have a total 17 PA's.

If Votto is still batting worse than Laynce Nix, Phillips worse than Jerry Hairston and Bruce worse that Willy Taveras, in June, then I'll be worried. But until then, I'm actually optimistic, since I know that are going to play better than they have so far, and so far they are at .500.

I think that you and Rick are telling a lot of truth here. Just like this series with Pittsburgh, the Reds should be able to get a nice boost in the early numbers. Problem still has been and is, is what the competition out there is doing and going to do, not just what the Reds might or might not.

There rankings in 08, 09, and early 10 are what they are for a reason, might even be reasons going on behind the scenes in instructions that we are not even aware of, then again, maybe it is just talent like Rick and other's have said each season.

[Kc61]

It's amazing the difference a game or two can make this early in the season. When I looked at the pitching stats a couple days ago the Reds had the 4th or 5th best ERA in the league. Now a couple games later they rank near the bottom.


True, but even when the ERA was in the top group, it was something like 4.6.

To me, these early stats mean little. But I'm concerned about the pitching. The offense is limited, we all know that. The defense will be pretty good once things settle down.

But the pitching may be overrated. The rotation is three kids, Arroyo and Harang. The bullpen lacks depth.

As we go through the season, I think the pitching stats are key for this team.

[Falls City Beer]

What's funny is that despite all of this we're still 5-5. It's hardly fair to suggest that the first 10 games of the season tell us anything new that we didn't know about this team 2 weeks ago.

Yes, I get this. Certainly what we're seeing here is no surprise, to me, at least.

I actually don't think there's anything the FO can do right now to improve this team at anything but the barest margins. This organization is still talent-devoid.

[RedsManRick]

Yes, I get this. Certainly what we're seeing here is no surprise, to me, at least.

I would caution you against a common error. If a sample size is too small to use reliably, it's too small to use, period. Whether or not it lines up with your expectations is completely irrelevant and it should not be used as additional evidence to support your beliefs, just as would you not take it as evidence to counter your expectations if the numbers were different. I too am not surprised by what I've seen so far. But I would also not be surprised if we saw a 3.50 team ERA and an .825 OPS. After just 10 games, virtually no level of performance should be surprising.



I actually don't think there's anything the FO can do right now to improve this team at anything but the barest margins. This organization is still talent-devoid.
I agree with you on the first point; this is the team we'll have and barring any big, shocking trade, it's not going to change much. However, I think your second point is misguided.

There is a lot of talent in this organization, both on the major league roster and in the minor leagues. Unfortunately, talent doesn't win baseball games, production does. The bulk of our talent is simply not quite ready to produce at the major league level; or at minimum has not yet done so.

[Falls City Beer]

I would caution you against a common error. If a sample size is too small to use reliably, it's too small to use period. Whether or not it lines up with your expectations is completely irrelevant and it should not be used as additional evidence to support your beliefs, just as would you not take it as evidence to counter your expectations if the numbers were different.

Okay: how's this: they'll suck at season's end--when the sample size is plenty big. :)

We disagree: I think there's a major dearth of talent at the MLB, and yes, probably just a dearth of production in the minors. I do think there's huge talent deficit on the 25 man, though.

[Spring~Fields]

Okay: how's this: they'll suck at season's end--when the sample size is plenty big. :)



:bowrofl: :ughmamoru :bowrofl:

That is what he said, “I too am not surprised by what I've seen so far.” Rick is just a little bit more diplomatic and gentler with the masses than we are. ;)

[RedsManRick]

Okay: how's this: they'll suck at season's end--when the sample size is plenty big. :)

We disagree: I think there's a major dearth of talent at the MLB, and yes, probably just a dearth of production in the minors. I do think there's huge talent deficit on the 25 man, though.

That's better. :p:

I guess we'll just have to disagree. I think there's decent talent at the majors; I still think we're a .500 team more or less and I think there's a good amount of talent in the upper minors. My main point is simply that the first 10 games of the season don't really tell us much either way.

[nate]

That's better. :p:

I guess we'll just have to disagree. I think there's decent talent at the majors; I still think we're a .500 team more or less and I think there's a good amount of talent in the upper minors. My main point is simply that the first 10 games of the season don't really tell us much either way.

Rick, I can't find it but I believe last year you posted a list of when certain numbers of ABs/IP/defensive innings start to become meaningful.

I'd like to see that list again...perhaps even stickied.

[Spring~Fields]

Rick, I can't find it but I believe last year you posted a list of when certain numbers of ABs/IP/defensive innings start to become meaningful.

I'd like to see that list again...perhaps even stickied.

How many samples makes a whole ? When the widget producers, produce at or about the same amount of widgets each in each of the past three years? :)

Will the widget producers exceed their previous production levels by very much in the next year? If all things stay at or about the same or equal?

[RedsManRick]

Rick, I can't find it but I believe last year you posted a list of when certain numbers of ABs/IP/defensive innings start to become meaningful.

I'd like to see that list again...perhaps even stickied.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/when-samples-become-reliable

Key section:



Cutter basically searched for the point at which split-half reliability tests produced a 0.70 correlation or higher. A split-half reliability test involves finding the correlations between partitions of one dataset. For instance, taking all of Burrell’s evenly numbered plate appearances and separating them from the odd ones, and then running correlations on both. When both are very similar, the data becomes more reliable. Though a 1.0 correlation indicated a perfect relationship, 0.70 is usually the ultimate benchmark in statistical studies, especially relative to baseball, when DIPS theory was derived from correlations of lesser strength. Without further delay, here are the results of his article as far as when certain statistics stabilize for individual hitters:

50 PA: Swing %
100 PA: Contact Rate
150 PA: Strikeout Rate, Line Drive Rate, Pitches/PA
200 PA: Walk Rate, Groundball Rate, GB/FB
250 PA: Flyball Rate
300 PA: Home Run Rate, HR/FB
500 PA: OBP, SLG, OPS, 1B Rate, Popup Rate
550 PA: ISO

[nate]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/when-samples-become-reliable

Key section:

Yes, that's the one. Thanks!

[Spring~Fields]

I would caution you against a common error. If a sample size is too small to use reliably, it's too small to use, period. Whether or not it lines up with your expectations is completely irrelevant and it should not be used as additional evidence to support your beliefs, just as would you not take it as evidence to counter your expectations if the numbers were different. I too am not surprised by what I've seen so far. But I would also not be surprised if we saw a 3.50 team ERA and an .825 OPS. After just 10 games, virtually no level of performance should be surprising.


Rick if you see a substantive or major flaw in this below, correct me if you will.



OPS OPS OPS
Stubbs .639 Cabrera .610 Votto .744
2009 .762 2009 .705 2009 .981
2009 ML .713 2008 .705 2008 .874
2008 ML .788 2007 .742 2007 .908
2007 ML .785

Widget Prod. .762 .717 .921

Phillips .687 Rolen .842 Bruce .437
2009 .776 2009 .823 2009 .773
2008 .754 2008 .780 2008 .767
2007 .816 2007 .729 2008 ML 1.023
2007 ML .925

Widget Prod. .782 .777 .822

Gomes .856 Hernndz .638
2009 .879 2009 .698
2008 .665 2008 .714
2007 .782 2007 .715

Widget Prod. .775 .709

Bench Players
Hanigan 1.318 Dickerson.745 Cairo .333
2009 .692 2009 .743 2009 .705
2008 .732 2008 1.021 2008 .646
2007 .764 2008 ML .862 2007 .631
2007 ML .796

Widget Prod. .729 .800 .661

Nix .522 Janish 2.100
2009 .767 2009 .601
2008 ML .887 2008 .520
2007 ML .876 2008 ML .711
2007 ML .654

Widget Prod. .843 .655


The players should produce to their mean which would be their OPS as represented by the widget production numbers above.

Most of the players above have higher production numbers throughout their history vs. their 2010 small sample, and that is one of the main reasons that we cannot accept the present production stats in ten games, because they are going to go up.

I think that the team will still lack in production as the Reds seem to have too many players with an OPS of below .800, even some of the production levels are very questionable because of the use of the minor league stats, cannot necessarily be used to derive at a certain MLB production number.

Define use of the term mean here:
1. intermediate value: in mathematics, a value that is intermediate between other values, e.g. an average or expected value



2010 BABIP Total BABIP 2007 2008 2009
Scott Rolen .167 .308 .287 .292 .327
Orlando Cabrera .167 .286 .319 .301 .302
Jay Bruce .208 .259 .296 .221
Jonny Gomes .214 .290 .325 .198 .309
Ramon Hernandez .250 .274 .284 .265 .274
Brandon Phillips.276 .285 .304 .277 .284
Drew Stubbs .294 .321 .325
Laynce Nix .333 .287 .000 .111 .272
Joey Votto .375 .349 .354 .328 .372
Chris Dickerson .417 .374 .410 .360
Paul Janish .500 .245 .230 .247
Ryan Hanigan .500 .295 .375 .284 .289


Allow for BABIP

[BCubb2003]

Pythagoras says they should be 4-6 instead of 5-5.

But Pythagoras is dead. Just win, baby.

[Spring~Fields]

Pythagoras says they should be 4-6 instead of 5-5.

But Pythagoras is dead. Just win, baby.

:thumbup::thumbup::thumbup:

[RedsManRick]

SF, I have run so I don't have the chance to fully consider your point, however, I would suggest you use a widely publicized baseline such as CHONE, PECOTA, or even Marcels.

Your basic point is right, on balance, the team's production to date is less than what we should expect from them for the rest of the year. And then, if you want to use BABIP to help explain the reason for that variation, I think that's a fine place to start. Of course, the players could have perfectly reasonable BABIP and still have produced way worse than we should expect long term. It's possible we've just had a bunch of slumps at the same time, faced better than average pitchers, etc.

[Spring~Fields]

SF, I have run so I don't have the chance to fully consider your point, however, I would suggest you use a widely publicized baseline such as CHONE, PECOTA, or even Marcels.

Your basic point is right, on balance, the team's production to date is less than what we should expect from them for the rest of the year. And then, if you want to use BABIP to help explain the reason for that variation, I think that's a fine place to start. Of course, the players could have perfectly reasonable BABIP and still have produced way worse than we should expect long term. It's possible we've just had a bunch of slumps at the same time, faced better than average pitchers, etc.

NP, thanks Rick.

[OnBaseMachine]

I hate to be so negative this early in the season, especially after picking the Reds to win 87 games, but I just don't see how this team is going to win more than 72-75 games. So far, all four facets of the game have been awful. The offense is horrible. These guys can't hit or draw a walk. The starting pitching started off good then was terrible in Miami. The defense has been downright brutal at times.

I thought Jeff Keppinger was a bad defensive shortstop but he looks great compared to Orlando Cabrera. I can't believe how far Cabrera's defense has fallen. This guy was a very good defender in his younger days but he looks like he's 90 years old out there now. The Pirates hit two fairly routine groundballs tonight and both went for singles due to Cabrera's lack of range, and of course the inability to turn those into outs led to runs and could have been the difference in a win and a less.

I can't even get mad over tonight's loss. This game was lost when the Reds decided to put Miguel Cairo on the roster. This guy doesn't belong on a major league roster, let alone starting at 1B and batting 5th. Miguel Cairo hitting 5th is one of the more mind-boggling things I've seen in a long time. And that's not all, he cost the Reds dealy with his defense tonight. First, he failed to cover first on the Leake throwing error on the bunt, then he botched an easy doubleplay.

I hate to be so negative but this team just looks awful out there. On the brightside, Mike Leake pitched another solid game. I still have confidence in the starting pitching but the offense and defense worries me. The defense is fixable if they decide to replace Cabrera with Janish but I doubt that happens in the foreseeable future.

[Cedric]

I hate to be so negative this early in the season, especially after picking the Reds to win 87 games, but I just don't see how this team is going to win more than 72-75 games. So far, all four facets of the game have been awful. The offense is horrible. These guys can't hit or draw a walk. The starting pitching started off slow then was terrible in Miami. The defense has been downright brutal at times.

I thought Jeff Keppinger was a bad defensive shortstop but he looks great compared to Orlando Cabrera. I can't believe how far Cabrera's defense has fallen. This guy was a very good defender in his younger days but he looks like he's 90 years old out there now. The Pirates hit two fairly routine groundballs tonight and both went for singles due to Cabrera's lack of range, and of course the inability to turn those into outs led to runs and could have been the difference in a win and a less.

I can't even get mad over tonight's loss. This game was lost when the Reds decided to put Miguel Cairo on the roster. This guy doesn't belong on a major league roster, let alone starting at 1B and batting 5th. Miguel Cairo hitting 5th is one of the more mind-boggling things I've seen in a long time. And that's not all, he cost the Reds dealy with his defense tonight. First, he failed to cover first on the Leake throwing error on the bunt, then he botched an easy doubleplay.

I hate to be so negative but this team just looks awful out there. On the brightside, Mike Leake pitched another solid game.

This is just another season as a Reds fan. If everything goes perfectly the team MIGHT win 85 games.

If, if, if. Just way too many things have to happen for this team to have a good year.

[forfreelin04]

I hate to be so negative this early in the season, especially after picking the Reds to win 87 games, but I just don't see how this team is going to win more than 72-75 games. So far, all four facets of the game have been awful. The offense is horrible. These guys can't hit or draw a walk. The starting pitching started off good then was terrible in Miami. The defense has been downright brutal at times.

I thought Jeff Keppinger was a bad defensive shortstop but he looks great compared to Orlando Cabrera. I can't believe how far Cabrera's defense has fallen. This guy was a very good defender in his younger days but he looks like he's 90 years old out there now. The Pirates hit two fairly routine groundballs tonight and both went for singles due to Cabrera's lack of range, and of course the inability to turn those into outs led to runs and could have been the difference in a win and a less.

I can't even get mad over tonight's loss. This game was lost when the Reds decided to put Miguel Cairo on the roster. This guy doesn't belong on a major league roster, let alone starting at 1B and batting 5th. Miguel Cairo hitting 5th is one of the more mind-boggling things I've seen in a long time. And that's not all, he cost the Reds dealy with his defense tonight. First, he failed to cover first on the Leake throwing error on the bunt, then he botched an easy doubleplay.

I hate to be so negative but this team just looks awful out there. On the brightside, Mike Leake pitched another solid game. I still have confidence in the starting pitching but the offense and defense worries me. The defense is fixable if they decide to replace Cabrera with Janish but I doubt that happens in the foreseeable future.


OBM, I respect you man. Your diehard.

But if you really result to calling out the 25th guy on the team, who may never start another game for several more months, you need to start looking into fishing more over the summer.

I want a winner just as bad as you, but it doesn't take much to see there are bigger issues than Cairo.

[OnBaseMachine]

OBM, I respect you man. Your diehard.

But if you really result to calling out the 25th guy on the team, who may never start another game for several more months, you need to start looking into fishing more over the summer.

I want a winner just as bad as you, but it doesn't take much to see there are bigger issues than Cairo.

So you don't think there's anything wrong with Miguel Cairo being the backup first baseman? I do. When Votto can't play, the Reds have got to have a better option to play 1B than Miguel Cairo.

The problem is the Reds bench has two or three guys who you could describe as the 25th man.

[reds44]

So you don't think there's anything wrong with Miguel Cairo being the backup first baseman? I do. When Votto can't play, the Reds have got to have a better option to play 1B than Miguel Cairo.

The problem is the Reds bench has two or three guys who you could describe as the 25th man.
Last year it was Ramon Henandez, that wasn't any better.

[forfreelin04]

So you don't think there's anything wrong with Miguel Cairo being the backup first baseman? I do. When Votto can't play, the Reds have got to have a better option to play 1B than Miguel Cairo.

The problem is the Reds bench has two or three guys who you could describe as the 25th man.

The backup 1st baseman should always be the other catcher or one of the extra outfielders. OR, they should be the one guy on the team that is strictly a pinch hitter and plays the occasional first base. Cairo just happens to be an infielder by trade. Personally, I think Gomes should play this role if Votto needs to sit a game or two. 1st base really isn't that hard to play outside of a throw to second and the occasional pick of a one hopper.

A bench should be just that. A place where the players sit until they pinch hit or our a late inning replacement. Most of the bench guys shouldn't touch the field unless its a getaway Wednesday game or someone has the flu. (like tonight) But their simply isn't enough talent on the field!

I agree with you on the two or three guys that could be described as 25th man material. However, there are several guys that start on a half regular basis that could be considered the 25th man on other teams. But even this isn't the real problem.

The real problems are a young talent who can't hit lefties and probably needs to go to AAA to find out. You also have another young talent who can't hit a curveball. (Stubbs) Harang is on his last leg. The best starter is a innings eater and the second best just threw his second big league game. The manager is a player pleaser and needs to stick with proven talent teams. Finally, the organization is prone to terrible contracts which handcuffs their potential in free agency and trades each year. These are all bigger problems than Miggy Cairo.

[Will M]

one tidbit i thought about today:

in 11 games the Reds have faced Carpenter, Wainright, Zambrano, Johnson & Duke. Thats each teams #1 starter plus Wainright.

In the 5 games vs these guys we are averaging 3.4 runs per game.
In the other 6 games we are averaging 4.8 runs per game.

so offensively things may not be as bad as they look

[Spring~Fields]

one tidbit i thought about today:

in 11 games the Reds have faced Carpenter, Wainright, Zambrano, Johnson & Duke. Thats each teams #1 starter plus Wainright.

In the 5 games vs these guys we are averaging 3.4 runs per game.
In the other 6 games we are averaging 4.8 runs per game.

so offensively things may not be as bad as they look

It tells me that these players, or the majority of Reds players can't hit or get on base when they face good pitching. That is what the slash stats appeared to be telling me before the season started, and many others.

Seems to me that the experienced players are having problems. As they did before.


Three year splits BA OBP SLG OPS
Phillips
vs. Left .316 .361 .581 .942
vs. Right .259 .310 .410 .720
Experience 8 years

Cabrera
vs. Left .282 .348 .404 .752
vs. Right .291 .326 .379 .705
Experience 13 years

Rolen
vs. Left .280 .381 .437 .818
vs. Right .279 .340 .427 .767
Experience 14 years

Gomes
vs. Left .250 .333 .750 1.083
vs. Right .261 .280 .478 .758
Experience 7 years

Hernandez
vs. Left .274 .328 .396 .724
vs. Right .251 .322 .383 .705
Experience 11 years

Nix
vs. Left .139 .184 .222 .406
vs. Right .236 .287 .471 .758
Experience 7 years

Cairo
vs. Left .258 .333 .351 .684
vs. Right .249 .294 .332 .626
Experience 14 years

[Benihana]

The backup 1st baseman should always be the other catcher or one of the extra outfielders. OR, they should be the one guy on the team that is strictly a pinch hitter and plays the occasional first base. Cairo just happens to be an infielder by trade. Personally, I think Gomes should play this role if Votto needs to sit a game or two. 1st base really isn't that hard to play outside of a throw to second and the occasional pick of a one hopper.

I think this is one of the reasons why Francisco should be on the roster- he could be a spot starter at 3B and 1B when Rolen and/or Votto need a break, and should be Gomes' platoon partner in LF. This way, he is playing at least 4-5 days a week. Francisco belongs on the roster much more than Laynce Nix because of both his versatility and his potential.

As I mentioned on another thread, if things continue status quo through the end of the month, Dickerson should be starting 4-5 days a week in CF. This would require a platoon partner for Gomes in LF, and Francisco fits the bill.

Backup 1B, 3B, platoon LF, and CF problems all solved in one fell swoop.

I also would consider bringing back Balentien in a couple weeks if Bruce doesn't turn it around, and playing him a couple nights a week in RF to spell Bruce. But that's another issue.

[Tom Servo]

one tidbit i thought about today:

in 11 games the Reds have faced Carpenter, Wainright, Zambrano, Johnson & Duke. Thats each teams #1 starter plus Wainright.

In the 5 games vs these guys we are averaging 3.4 runs per game.
In the other 6 games we are averaging 4.8 runs per game.

so offensively things may not be as bad as they look
And they're going to continue to have to face the likes of Carpenter, Wainright, Zambrano, Johnson and Duke throughout the season, as well as Penny, Lilly, Halladay, Santana, Oswalt, Lincecum, Cain, Hamels, Haren, Hudson, Jimenez, and Kershaw.


They need to be able to hit.

[M2]

I think the reality is the Reds will spend all of 2010 auditioning bats. During this auditioning period the team will field one of the worst offenses in baseball and there's no getting around that.

Now, if Jay Bruce and another couple of young guys catch fire, that could change. Yet it looks like Bruce has got issues that aren't going to be resolved any time soon and there isn't another young bat showing a whole lot of promise at the moment. So it'll likely be lots of frustration and overreaction (Danny Dorn is the new Frank Robinson!) for the rest of the season.

And veterans headed out the exit doors. Harang and Arroyo are goners for sure. The team will shop Cordero, but not be able to move him until the winter. The real question is Phillips. The Reds might be able to get something for him (thanks in large part to his glove skills) and he's likely to start getting restless if the team struggles. Oh, and he makes decent coin. 2010 might be as close as the franchise ever gets to a full rebuild.

[REDblooded]

I continue to believe that a HUGE issue with the offense has been the construction of the line-up's... Of course that will continue to be an issue for the rest of the season...

IMO, Bruce should be hitting 2nd in front of Votto. He needs to be in a position where 1.) he's getting more AB's to continue his development and 2.) he's hitting in a position where pitchers are forced to go after him a bit more with fastballs.

Phillips really has no place batting 4th on this team. He's far too inconsistent with his AB's and hits into far too many double plays. Rolen would be my ideal man in the 4 hole with Cabrera hitting behind him. Dickerson or Gomes should hit 6th depending on the match-up with Phillips batting 7th. I would continue to work Stubbs as the lead-off because he makes pitchers work... Also, it would probably help Bruce to be in the on-deck circle watching the pitcher go 4+ pitches before his AB... IMO, the line-up needs to be constructed in such a way that the pitcher is constantly being challenged to make good pitches and keep the stress level high... As it currently stands, that's not the case at all.

[M2]

I continue to believe that a HUGE issue with the offense has been the construction of the line-up's...

You're probably right. Better choices might help get a player or two on track. That said, it's nearly impossible to fix a lineup in which almost everyone is an easy out.

[Joseph]

With the numbers like they are, will this team be over .500 again this season?

Smart money might just say no.

[VR]

I continue to believe that a HUGE issue with the offense has been the construction of the line-up's... Of course that will continue to be an issue for the rest of the season...



Hitting approach up and down is a major flaw as well. An unbelievable amount of hackers thrown together on a nightly basis. With Votto and Rolen the obvious exceptions......

It would seem Jacoby's batting coach approach looks like this.

Swing early, swing often.
Try to pull everything.
Pretend there's a bucket, and step in it.
Walks, shmalks.

[forfreelin04]

I think this is one of the reasons why Francisco should be on the roster- he could be a spot starter at 3B and 1B when Rolen and/or Votto need a break, and should be Gomes' platoon partner in LF. This way, he is playing at least 4-5 days a week. Francisco belongs on the roster much more than Laynce Nix because of both his versatility and his potential.

As I mentioned on another thread, if things continue status quo through the end of the month, Dickerson should be starting 4-5 days a week in CF. This would require a platoon partner for Gomes in LF, and Francisco fits the bill.

Backup 1B, 3B, platoon LF, and CF problems all solved in one fell swoop.

I also would consider bringing back Balentien in a couple weeks if Bruce doesn't turn it around, and playing him a couple nights a week in RF to spell Bruce. But that's another issue.

Your right Beni.

Francisco would fill that role. However after seeing Bruce and Stubbs struggle at basic and everyday player skills like hitting a curveball, swing selection, and hitting against lefties, I'm honestly not so sure Francisco needs to be here. He, too, has looked abysmal at swing selection and hitting a curveball.

It honestly seems like the Reds minor league system is simply letting their youngsters compete without an emphasis to work on their weaknesses to become bonafide major leaguers. I highly doubt that is the total case, but seemingly once they arrive in the bigs they are completely lost at important fundamentals of the game.

One could point a finger at Dusty and his staff and say "their not teaching them this or that" but in reality these players have huge flaws that should have been corrected earlier. Maybe if the organization had taken a longer look at them fundamentally instead of statistically speaking they would have noticed this. If you hold a player who is putting up stats in AAA longer, his legend will become his value. But once you bring them up to the Major Leagues, they are exposed and their trade value drops. All of a sudden Jay Bruce isn't a phenom, he's a young player with a huge flaw in his game.

[Benihana]

Your right Beni.

Francisco would fill that role. However after seeing Bruce and Stubbs struggle at basic and everyday player skills like hitting a curveball, swing selection, and hitting against lefties, I'm honestly not so sure Francisco needs to be here. He, too, has looked abysmal at swing selection and hitting a curveball.

It honestly seems like the Reds minor league system is simply letting their youngsters compete without an emphasis to work on their weaknesses to become bonafide major leaguers. I highly doubt that is the total case, but seemingly once they arrive in the bigs they are completely lost at important fundamentals of the game.

One could point a finger at Dusty and his staff and say "their not teaching them this or that" but in reality these players have huge flaws that should have been corrected earlier. Maybe if the organization had taken a longer look at them fundamentally instead of statistically speaking they would have noticed this. If you hold a player who is putting up stats in AAA longer, his legend will become his value. But once you bring them up to the Major Leagues, they are exposed and their trade value drops. All of a sudden Jay Bruce isn't a phenom, he's a young player with a huge flaw in his game.

Agreed, nice post.

[VR]

With the numbers like they are, will this team be over .500 again this season?

Smart money might just say no.

Barring injury, I still think they will be in the WC hunt at a minimum. It's early.

[forfreelin04]

Hitting approach up and down is a major flaw as well. An unbelievable amount of hackers thrown together on a nightly basis. With Votto and Rolen the obvious exceptions......

It would seem Jacoby's batting coach approach looks like this.

Swing early, swing often.
Try to pull everything.
Pretend there's a bucket, and step in it.
Walks, shmalks.

Obviously theorizing on what Jacoby's style is would be folly. Who knows? Has anyone read anything about it?

However, one thing that stood out to me is that he never has a clipboard in his hand in the dugout. He's always just watching the game. If I'm getting paid significantly to be a hitting coach, I'm documenting opposing pitchers tendencies. I'm looking at my hitters strengths and their weaknesses in each at bat to find out how each can be corrected or documented. The worst thing a hitter can do is do something right and not know why.

There may be a person that actually does this in the FO (scout) each game. But it seems prudent to do this during the game. Each player will typically get at least 4 at bats, why not make the correction sooner rather than later?

[Benihana]

Barring injury, I still think they will be in the WC hunt at a minimum. It's early.

I like where your head is. The sky isn't falling...


...but I am concerned about a couple of the youngsters.

[Falls City Beer]

With the numbers like they are, will this team be over .500 again this season?

Smart money might just say no.

They probably won't. Consider last year's pythag record of 76 wins, then consider the relative smallness of the moves in the offseason--the lack of overall change to the roster--and I just don't think anyone should have a reason to believe they're going to magically move up a peg much less two or three. This is a sub-.500 team on the brightest day and in the sunniest weather.

[forfreelin04]

They probably won't. Consider last year's pythag record of 76 wins, then consider the relative smallness of the moves in the offseason--the lack of overall change to the roster--and I just don't think anyone should have a reason to believe they're going to magically move up a peg much less two or three. This is a sub-.500 team on the brightest day and in the sunniest weather.

But their September stats are stellar year in and year out. :confused:

[Sea Ray]

What is it with this team and beginning the year? I thought they started slowly last year, so I looked it up and they are a juggernaut compared to last year. In 2009 after ten games the Reds only had a total of 64 hits and were hitting .208 as a team. They'd scored 38 runs in those ten games. Their record was 5-5

[Spring~Fields]

What is it with this team and beginning the year? I thought they started slowly last year, so I looked it up and they are a juggernaut compared to last year. In 2009 after ten games the Reds only had a total of 64 hits and were hitting .208 as a team. They'd scored 38 runs in those ten games. Their record was 5-5

I don't know, maybe the Pirates, Marlins, Cubs and Cards just got that much better over last year. :) Maybe they have better luck hitting late inning home runs to win a couple off some poorer pitchers?

[Sea Ray]

I don't know, maybe the Pirates, Marlins, Cubs and Cards just got that much better over last year. :) Maybe they have better luck hitting late inning home runs to win a couple off some poorer pitchers?

The sad thing is we're hitting about 30 pts better this year than last...

[OnBaseMachine]

With the numbers like they are, will this team be over .500 again this season?

Smart money might just say no.

I would almost be willing to bet money that this team won't reach .500 again this season. As I said earlier, I think this team is going to struggle to win 70 games, if that. I thought they had a legitimate chance at winning 81-87 games but not now. I'm shocked at how bad this team is. And this next part really hurts me to say - Before this season I thought the Reds had a bright future ahead of them but now I'm starting to doubt that. The Reds have collected a good group of young talent but none of them are taking steps forward. If anything they're getting worse. I'm beginning to think these next few years are going to be more of the same. It pains me to say that.

[Will M]

I would almost be willing to bet money that this team won't reach .500 again this season. As I said earlier, I think this team is going to struggle to win 70 games, if that. I thought they had a legitimate chance at winning 81-87 games but not now. I'm shocked at how bad this team is. And this next part really hurts me to say - Before this season I thought the Reds had a bright future ahead of them but now I'm starting to doubt that. The Reds have collected a good group of young talent but none of them are taking steps forward. If anything they're getting worse. I'm beginning to think these next few years are going to be more of the same. It pains me to say that.

OBM: the picture looks bleak in the midst of a 4 game losing streak. however, i agree with you. personally i watched tonights game with a new mindset. the mindset was that this team will not win jack or squat this year & i should simply watch how the younger guys perform. (as opposed to think that they can win more game than they lose).

Bruce, Cueto & Bailey were supposed to step up and take this team to the next level. instead we get a big pile of yuck so far.

i have been thinking recently. in the last 10 years how many Reds prospects ever amounted to much of anything. so far my list is:
1. Votto (so far)
2. Dunn's offensive production
3. that's all i could come up with

[Spring~Fields]

I would almost be willing to bet money that this team won't reach .500 again this season. As I said earlier, I think this team is going to struggle to win 70 games, if that. I thought they had a legitimate chance at winning 81-87 games but not now. I'm shocked at how bad this team is. And this next part really hurts me to say - Before this season I thought the Reds had a bright future ahead of them but now I'm starting to doubt that. The Reds have collected a good group of young talent but none of them are taking steps forward. If anything they're getting worse. I'm beginning to think these next few years are going to be more of the same. It pains me to say that.

They are not that bad, you know that. I have seen you pick too many sports teams to buy that from you. ;)

[Ghosts of 1990]

I like where your head is. The sky isn't falling...


...but I am concerned about a couple of the youngsters.

I think we are saved from the cellar because of Houston only. I think that we should stop hoping for the wild card or a pennant chase and just accept that this season is all about getting young guys experience and preparing for next year. Already. After 12 games.