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Benihana
04-17-2010, 01:01 AM
Because so many of the Reds top prospects are currently in Louisville (Chapman, Wood, Frazier, Heisey, Francisco, etc.) and will most likely be ready to stick in the majors by the end of this season, I thought it would be an interesting activity to examine and analyze the Top Prospects below the AAA level.

GRADE B

1. Yonder Alonso 1B/LF Carolina
2. Yorman Rodriguez CF Billings
3. Brad Boxberger RHP Lynchburg

GRADE C

4. Matt Klinker RHP Carolina
5. Devin Mesoraco C Lynchburg
6. Neftali Soto C Lynchburg
7. D.D. Gregorious SS Dayton
8. Miguel Rojas SS Lynchburg
9. Henry Rodriguez 2B Dayton
10. JC Sulbaran RHP Dayton
11. Matt Fairel LHP Lynchburg
12. Josh Fellhauer OF Lynchburg
13. Juan Duran OF Billings
14. Juan Silva OF Billings
15. Billy Hamilton SS Billings

Keep an Eye On:

Kyle Lotzkar RHP
Daryl Thompson RHP
Dallas Buck RHP
Donnie Joseph LHP
Mace Thurman RHP
Phillipe Valliquette LHP
Jacob Johnson RHP
Daniel Tuttle RHP
Junior Arias SS/CF
Humberto Valor SS
Ismael Guillon LHP

FIRST PROMOTION PREDICTION
Maloney to Reds, Klinker to Louisville, Fairel to Carolina

gedred69
04-18-2010, 10:25 PM
Ah, I don't know but I wonder if this isn't a personal "wish List". It's a long way off, granted, but I have seen Gregorius in person and have thus far been very impressed. He has all the tools. If he keeps hitting, I'd expect him to move up to face better comp'. And back to your AAA list, what about Dorn? He was never given a chance in ST, (< 10 ABs), and only a late inning sub. Thus far he is the Bats.

Guacarock
04-19-2010, 01:54 AM
It's awfully early in the season but here are my initial assessments of our best 2010 prospects by position, including only the players on the three A and AA teams currently seeing action, and excluding players who have already reached AAA or are still trying to break out of the rookie leagues.

C -- Devin Mesoraco, Lynchburg. Defensive wizard now putting together his offense, as evidenced by his .981 OPS with a .323 BA, 2 HR, 6 RBI.

1B -- Christopher Richburg, Dayton. The Dragons have far outscored all of our farm teams to date, and Richburg leads the team with 11 RBI.

2B -- Henry Rodriguez, Dayton. His 7 doubles so far swamps all of our other prospects, and he also has contributed 10 RBI to the Dragons' potent offense.

SS -- A dead-heat tie between Lynchburg's Miguel Rojas and Dayton's Mariekson Gregorius. Gregorius has been the flashier batter with 2 doubles, 2 triples and a home run, but Rojas has hardly been a slouch at the plate, as his .435 BA with a .915 OPS attests. Rojas also has 3 SB (vs. 0 for Gregorius) and only 2 errors (vs. 4 for Gregorius), so we might need to watch these two all season long before deciding who has the brighter future.

3B -- The weakest position in our system once you get past Frazier/Francisco at Louisville, and it's not clear either is being groomed for 3B. Jose Gualdron at Lynchburg has 3 doubles in 11 AB, so maybe he could challenge Rodriguez as a slap hitter with a little bit of punch if Gualdron sees more playing time.

LF -- Hands down, the prospect to watch is Yonder Alonso of Carolina. After a slow week of sputtering around and adjusting to a new defensive position, Yonder has quickly regrouped. His OPS is now a comfortable .914, he's hit 2 HR, 2 doubles, scored 9 times and collected 6 RBI.

CF -- Dayton's Andrew Means has had a hot start out of the gate, with his .347 BA, 9 runs scored and 4 SB. But he's going to have competition from Lynchburg's Dave Sappelt (5 SB) and Carolina's Denis Phipps (5 doubles, 7 RBI). Interesting battle shaping up.

RF -- Dayton's Byron Wiley is only batting .222, but he's already drawn 9 walks (only Yonder comes close with 7 free passes) and he's hit 3 HR. Could we have another Adam Dunn in the making -- a patient hitter with awesome power and a high OBP, but a crummy BA?

SP -- We've had 20 guys start games for us so far at the A, High A and AA levels. One of the 20 has yet to surrender a run -- Lynchburg's Matt Fairel, who is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in 2 games, 11.1 IP. He's not striking out too many -- only 7 batters so far -- but he's given up only 3 hits. By comparison, Dayton's Josh Ravin is smoking lots of batters, accumulating 18 Ks in three starts extending to 14.2 IP. But Ravin has given up 14 H and 3 earned runs. His 1.84 ERA is impressive, but not Fairelesque at this point. Tom Cochran and Matt Klinker are pacing the rotation at Carolina. Both ought to be pitching at Louisville, and probably will be if they keep up the good work.

Middle Relief -- The prospect to watch here is Dayton's Doug Salinas. So far, he's only forfeited 1 earned run in 10.2 innings of work, and he's notched up 11 Ks along the way without yet walking a batter. Nifty!

Set-Up -- Carolina's Philippe Valiquette bears watching. The lefty still has a stainless 0.00 ERA in 5 innings of work, along with 4 Ks, 1 hold and 1 save.

Closer -- Dayton's Donnie Joseph is getting it done. He's already finished 5 games for the Dragons, collected 2 saves and 11 Ks in 6.2 IP, and his ERA remains a sparkling 0.00.

REDblooded
04-19-2010, 04:14 AM
Be careful with just using ERA early in the season on the young pitchers... K/BB is a better indicator of future success.

mth123
04-19-2010, 05:11 AM
Mesoraco is proving me wrong. I'm excited about his development at this point.

Fairel is proving me right. Better than the more publicized Sulbaran.

Alonso is the obvious key. He has the bat to make the impact on the line-up the team needs. I think he'll be in Cincy at some point soon or the centerpiece in a deal for some help if the move to LF fails.

Still like Mace Thurman as a potential impact arm for the pen.

mace
04-19-2010, 12:19 PM
Lots to comment on here. Beni and Rock, thanks for the good work on the summaries. I'd differ slightly, though, on a few of Rock's early-season assessments.

Mesoraco. I like, very much, what he's been doing. But I don't know that I'd go so far as to call him a "defensive wizard." By most accounts, his defense was very suspect until he threw out a bunch of base-stealers last year. It's definitely on the uptick, like his bat. And everybody seems to agree that he has major-league makeup.

Richburg and Gualdron. I'm not ready to declare either of them a legitimate prospect.

Wiley. He's one of the few guys in the system--Alonso is the poster boy--who is there almost exclusively for his bat. I do like his bat, and his discipline, but to climb the ladder he has to be more dynamic on a consistent basis.

Phipps. Judging from the way the Reds allowed him to play with the varsity late in spring training, and the fact that he's been hitting cleanup, I have the sense that the organization is hoping for good things out of him. His calling card has always been a great arm.

Relievers. Agree that Salinas has been an extremely pleasant surprise . . . I'm guessing that the reason for leaving Thurman at Lynchburg was to develop him as a closer . . . I wouldn't count out Joe Krebs. He had one dreadful outing for Carolina, but over the past couple years has been very dependable.

TRF
04-19-2010, 12:53 PM
When the Mesoraco is a bust thread was going around last year, I disagreed saying it was too soon. doug had all the numbers, especially the ones about how the FSL was deflating his production. I, in a rare moment agreed with him. still do.

I don't think he's a .900 OPS bat, but he might be an .800 OPS bat. And if he can reach the Reds by age 24, which he seems on track to do, he's anything but a bust.

Guacarock
04-19-2010, 01:15 PM
Richburg and Gualdron. I'm not ready to declare either of them a legitimate prospect.

I'm not sure they'll go far either -- I just noted their early-season performances because they have surpassed everyone else in the Reds' farm system (A, High A, AA) at their respective positions. We truly have a dearth of talent at 3B, and the cupboard's also fairly bare at 1B, now that Alonso's been moved into LF.

Will Richburg and Gualdron amount to anything? Probably not. But they're worth watching for a few more weeks to see if they can parlay their April hot streaks into anything more sustained.

Like you, I'm a fan of Joe Krebs. It's going to be tough for him to advance to Louisville, though, with the logjam of middle relievers now with the Bats (Tabor, Fisher, Del Rosario, Reineke, Delgado) or waiting in the wings on the DL (like Bray, Burton).

mace
04-19-2010, 01:30 PM
I can understand the dearth at 1B, due to 1) Votto, 2) Alonso, and 3) the emphasis on skilled defensive players at C, SS and CF. But the 3B situation is a little peculiar. Just a year or so ago, there appeared to be a glut there: Frazier, Francisco, Soto, Waring, Rosales and possibly Valaika, not to mention Edwin. Not a single one of those guys is now playing the position full-time in the organization.

Guacarock
04-19-2010, 01:37 PM
Speaking of the dearth of talent at 1B in the Reds' farm system, the pickings just got a little slimmer as the Reds have released Logan Parker. He was off to a slow start, hitting .111 with a .105 OBP for the Carolina Mudcats. Looks like he took the fall when Terrero got sent down from Louisville, after the Bats added Balentien to their roster.

nemesis
04-19-2010, 01:50 PM
Speaking of the dearth of talent at 1B in the Reds' farm system, the pickings just got a little slimmer as the Reds have released Logan Parker. He was off to a slow start, hitting .111 with a .105 OBP for the Carolina Mudcats. Looks like he took the fall when Terrero got sent down from Louisville, after the Bats added Balentien to their roster.



I really thought after his 2008 at Sarasota he had potential... Someone else who has fallen flat on their face is Justin Reed. 19 AB's 0 hits 13 K's... I think him and Means need to be switched... I still think he has potential but something has to have went wrong in the offseason with his vision or swing.

Benihana
04-19-2010, 02:16 PM
I can understand the dearth at 1B, due to 1) Votto, 2) Alonso, and 3) the emphasis on skilled defensive players at C, SS and CF. But the 3B situation is a little peculiar. Just a year or so ago, there appeared to be a glut there: Frazier, Francisco, Soto, Waring, Rosales and possibly Valaika, not to mention Edwin. Not a single one of those guys is now playing the position full-time in the organization.

Frazier is clearly a natural 3B that is trying to learn LF to be more relevant to the major league team. Francisco is also a 3B, but between he and Frazier only one of them can play there in Louisville. Sutton and Valaika can also handle the position.

nemesis
04-19-2010, 02:27 PM
Frazier is clearly a natural 3B that is trying to learn LF to be more relevant to the major league team. Francisco is also a 3B, but between he and Frazier only one of them can play there in Louisville. Sutton and Valaika can also handle the position.

I would imagine that at this point Frazier is the future at 3B. Francisco will probably be trade bait. I wonder what kind of package it would take to get Santana from the Indians? Klinker, Mesorasco and Alonso? He has all the talent at the plate and is decent defensively. Plus he speaks Spanish. A plus with the rotation we have coming.

dougdirt
04-19-2010, 02:31 PM
I would imagine that at this point Frazier is the future at 3B. Francisco will probably be trade bait. I wonder what kind of package it would take to get Santana from the Indians? Klinker, Mesorasco and Alonso? He has all the talent at the plate and is decent defensively. Plus he speaks Spanish. A plus with the rotation we have coming.

Perhaps the best prospect in baseball? Yeah, Santana is not going to be traded.

GIDP
04-19-2010, 02:59 PM
Perhaps the best prospect in baseball? Yeah, Santana is not going to be traded.

I have dodger fan friends who still cant believe they gave up Santana for half a season of Casey Blake.

Benihana
04-19-2010, 03:21 PM
Perhaps the best prospect in baseball? Yeah, Santana is not going to be traded.

Up on the ORG, another poster advised a similar trade for Buster Posey- only this one included Ryan Hanigan and Matt Maloney. Good times!

REDblooded
04-19-2010, 03:36 PM
Up on the ORG, another poster advised a similar trade for Buster Posey- only this one included Ryan Hanigan and Matt Maloney. Good times!

I believe the suggestion was Hanigan, Maloney, Alonso, and Francisco. Looks a bit better than Klinker/Mes/Alonso for Santana...

Sea Ray
07-07-2010, 04:53 PM
Because so many of the Reds top prospects are currently in Louisville (Chapman, Wood, Frazier, Heisey, Francisco, etc.) and will most likely be ready to stick in the majors by the end of this season, I thought it would be an interesting activity to examine and analyze the Top Prospects below the AAA level.

GRADE B

1. Yonder Alonso 1B/LF Carolina
2. Yorman Rodriguez CF Billings
3. Brad Boxberger RHP Lynchburg

GRADE C

4. Matt Klinker RHP Carolina
5. Devin Mesoraco C Lynchburg
6. Neftali Soto C Lynchburg
7. D.D. Gregorious SS Dayton
8. Miguel Rojas SS Lynchburg
9. Henry Rodriguez 2B Dayton
10. JC Sulbaran RHP Dayton
11. Matt Fairel LHP Lynchburg
12. Josh Fellhauer OF Lynchburg
13. Juan Duran OF Billings
14. Juan Silva OF Billings
15. Billy Hamilton SS Billings

Keep an Eye On:

Kyle Lotzkar RHP
Daryl Thompson RHP
Dallas Buck RHP
Donnie Joseph LHP
Mace Thurman RHP
Phillipe Valliquette LHP
Jacob Johnson RHP
Daniel Tuttle RHP
Junior Arias SS/CF
Humberto Valor SS
Ismael Guillon LHP

FIRST PROMOTION PREDICTION
Maloney to Reds, Klinker to Louisville, Fairel to Carolina

Where's Jordan Smith? Did he show up on any top prospect lists?

I find it curious that this kid slipped under the radar. How did that happen?

mdccclxix
07-07-2010, 04:58 PM
Where's Jordan Smith? Did he show up on any top prospect lists?

I find it curious that this kid slipped under the radar. How did that happen?

I don't know, but I remember when asked last year before the season, Buckley listed him as a player that would be in the majors really soon. I guess it's clear why, as he's a big boy.

Benihana
07-07-2010, 04:59 PM
Where's Jordan Smith? Did he show up on any top prospect lists?

I find it curious that this kid slipped under the radar. How did that happen?

He was an average to mediocre starter who had just been converted to reliever and was spending his THIRD year in AA with a 5.08 ERA. Usually when that happens, especially if a player is 24 years old, he is not considered a top prospect.

We've always known about him. It's just that no one thought much of him as a starter, so there was no reason to LOVE him as a reliever before he had made an appearance. That said, I did predict here (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2120272&postcount=8)that he'd have early success in the big leagues.

GIDP
07-07-2010, 05:01 PM
Where's Jordan Smith? Did he show up on any top prospect lists?

I find it curious that this kid slipped under the radar. How did that happen?

Jordan Smith has been injured a lot, and was viewed as a starter prior to the season, if I recall.

Sea Ray
07-07-2010, 05:08 PM
He's sure been a nice find. Maybe I missed it but I never remembered even hearing his name mentioned around here before his callup

dougdirt
07-07-2010, 05:22 PM
He's sure been a nice find. Maybe I missed it but I never remembered even hearing his name mentioned around here before his callup

You must have missed it then. He was a former quality prospect, ranking as high as #13 ( I think) on BA's Top 30 Reds list.

Sea Ray
07-07-2010, 05:48 PM
You must have missed it then. He was a former quality prospect, ranking as high as #13 ( I think) on BA's Top 30 Reds list.

I easily could have. When was that?

dougdirt
07-07-2010, 06:33 PM
I easily could have. When was that?

Post 2008 I believe.

Sea Ray
07-07-2010, 11:37 PM
Kudos to the Reds front office for recognizing this kid had the stuff to play in the majors and was willing to move him up from AA. He was rarely mentioned as major league material around here

mdccclxix
07-07-2010, 11:39 PM
He does have some wicked sink on some of his pitches. Having seen Marmol last week and Smith as well, i thought there was some comparison on their breaking pitches. Not going too far with that comparison, but I thought it was worth mentioning.