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dougdirt
05-28-2010, 01:42 PM
I'll be satisfied with .270/.370/.480 season with 25 HR and 80 RBI on a winning team. I guess that last part is the caveat.

You post those numbers and play in 160 on a winning team you're a MAJOR cog. You post them on a last place team and you're barely a footnote in the league.

And yet at the end of the day, the guy would be the exact same player. It wouldn't be his fault that the rest of his team sucked and wouldn't change his value one bit.

nate
05-28-2010, 01:46 PM
I'll be satisfied with .270/.370/.480 season with 25 HR and 80 RBI on a winning team. I guess that last part is the caveat.

You post those numbers and play in 160 on a winning team you're a MAJOR cog. You post them on a last place team and you're barely a footnote in the league.

Huh? What does that have to do with Bruce? He only has control over himself, not the team.

Raisor
05-28-2010, 01:53 PM
Huh? What does that have to do with Bruce? He only has control over himself, not the team.

that goes with the RBI too.

nate
05-28-2010, 03:26 PM
that goes with the RBI too.

Word.

membengal
05-29-2010, 07:52 PM
Bruce is piling up those May homeruns now...

membengal
05-29-2010, 08:12 PM
And still piling up those May homeruns...

mth123
05-29-2010, 08:12 PM
Bruce is piling up those May homeruns now...

Add a second for tonight.

dougdirt
05-29-2010, 08:13 PM
Jay Bruce is a baller.

dougdirt
05-29-2010, 08:17 PM
Jay Bruce is currently hitting .280/.381/.488.

membengal
05-29-2010, 08:37 PM
but only a lineout to the track in deep LF in his third at-bat. cut him.

_Sir_Charles_
05-29-2010, 10:04 PM
Jay Bruce is currently hitting .280/.381/.488.

babip lucky. :D j/k...j/k

Ghosts of 1990
05-30-2010, 03:49 AM
he's getting it going a little.... should probably get some consideration for all-star but he won't cause he is a Reds player... oh well.

Homer Bailey
05-30-2010, 03:55 AM
Can we officially end the silliness in this thread that said Bruce isn't producing?

Thanks.

Ghosts of 1990
05-30-2010, 04:04 AM
Can we officially end the silliness in this thread that said Bruce isn't producing?

Thanks.

he's had some really bad stretches man. Like really, really ugly stretches. I've watched every at-bat with intent.

He's far from a Braun type. But he's not that far from a .300 hitter with some pop either. I think the type of competitive team we are this year hides him well. But he's going to fall well short of the expectations again in 2010... and I love Jay as much as anyone. He is a "ballplayer". He's just not a .280/35 HR/100 RBI guy yet.

Homer Bailey
05-30-2010, 04:19 AM
he's had some really bad stretches man. Like really, really ugly stretches. I've watched every at-bat with intent.

He's far from a Braun type. But he's not that far from a .300 hitter with some pop either. I think the type of competitive team we are this year hides him well. But he's going to fall well short of the expectations again in 2010... and I love Jay as much as anyone. He is a "ballplayer". He's just not a .280/35 HR/100 RBI guy yet.

No.

Just no.

He had a bad first 6 games.

Since then, he's probably been the best RF in the game. Everyone has "had bad stretches". Want some real talk? Dude has an .871 OPS and is playing gold glove defense. You want to know what that is in reality? That's an all-star. He probably won't be an all-star because of the team he plays for, but that does not mean he has not been an amazing player this year.

So go ahead and cherry pick your "bad stretches" and go on and assume that all players don't have "bad stretches", and try and take away from the fact that he has been an amazing contributor to the Reds as a 23 year old this year.

We are seriously watching the blossoming of Jay Bruce, and you still have the nerve to try and bring him down. I'm honestly in shock. He's far from the Braun type? Seriously? He has to be the "Braun type" for you? How is that fair?

And Jay actually plays defense (which Braun does not).

The team we have hides him well? Please explain this. I have no response until you actually describe what you mean with this statement. If this team needs to hide a .871 OPS bat with gold glove defense, then we should win 120 games. Seriously.

"Going to fall well short of expectations."

His OPS is up 100 points from last year, and he is going to fall well short of expectations? Seriously, give me ONE FACT to justify this statement. There isn't one. Not one.

Whatever your expectations are for Bruce, they are not realistic. If you don't realize that Bruce is one of the most valuable players in the NL, then I have nothing left to say to you, because you just don't understand baseball if you feel otherwise. You made your handle in honor of the guy, please don't try to bring him down with ZERO support for your argument.

reds44
05-30-2010, 04:21 AM
No.

Just no.

He had a bad first 6 games.

Since then, he's probably been the best RF in the game. Everyone has "had bad stretches". Want some real talk? Dude has an .871 OPS and is playing gold glove defense. You want to know what that is in reality? That's an all-star. He probably won't be an all-star because of the team he plays for, but that does not mean he has not been an amazing player this year.

So go ahead and cherry pick your "bad stretches" and go on and assume that all players don't have "bad stretches", and try and take away from the fact that he has been an amazing contributor to the Reds as a 23 year old this year.

We are seriously watching the blossoming of Jay Bruce, and you still have the nerve to try and bring him down. I'm honestly in shock. He's far from the Braun type? Seriously? He has to be the "Braun type" for you? How is that fair?

And Jay actually plays defense (which Braun does not).

The team we have hides him well? Please explain this. I have no response until you actually describe what you mean with this statement. If this team needs to hide a .871 OPS bat with gold glove defense, then we should win 120 games. Seriously.

"Going to fall well short of expectations."

His OPS is up 100 points from last year, and he is going to fall well short of expectations? Seriously, give me ONE FACT to justify this statement. There isn't one. Not one.

Whatever your expectations are for Bruce, they are not realistic. If you don't realize that Bruce is one of the most valuable players in the NL, then I have nothing left to say to you, because you just don't understand baseball if you feel otherwise. You made your handle in honor of the guy, please don't try to bring him down with ZERO support for your argument.
REAL. TALK.

Ron Madden
05-30-2010, 04:40 AM
Why can't Jay Bruce be a Jay Bruce type player?

As Fans we often want to take a productive player and turn him into someone else.

Some Reds Fans always wanted to turn Adam Dunn into Sean Casey, and turn Sean Casey into Adam Dunn.

Seems they wanted Adam to hit for a higher BA and Sean to hit more HR's.

Just put Jay Bruce in the everyday lineup and let him play.

Ghosts of 1990
05-30-2010, 04:42 AM
OK.

I love the guy, but right now he's a .270/ 25 HR/ 80 RBI guy.


If that's good enough for you then okay. On a first place team like we are now that's definitely good enough. On a last place team, it starts to be a complaint for sure. He's not going to go .280/35/100. That would have been a big time season. Not bashing the kid, he's just a kid. But he's just decent, not special. that's all i'm saying. i'd love for him to be special more then anything else. He's not the best right fielder in the NL. He's not even close to Heyward right now. Andre Ethier is better as well. That's off the top of my head and not even mentioning Hunter Pence, among others

reds44
05-30-2010, 04:49 AM
OK.

I love the guy, but right now he's a .270/ 25 HR/ 80 RBI guy.


If that's good enough for you then okay. On a first place team like we are now that's definitely good enough. On a last place team, it starts to be a complaint for sure. He's not going to go .280/35/100. That would have been a big time season. Not bashing the kid, he's just a kid. But he's just decent, not special. that's all i'm saying. i'd love for him to be special more then anything else. He's not the best right fielder in the NL. He's not even close to Heyward right now. Andre Ethier is better as well. That's off the top of my head and not even mentioning Hunter Pence, among others
He's 23. Not everybody is a freak like Jayson Heyward.

Homer Bailey
05-30-2010, 04:54 AM
OK.

I love the guy, but right now he's a .270/ 25 HR/ 80 RBI guy.


If that's good enough for you then okay. On a first place team like we are now that's definitely good enough. On a last place team, it starts to be a complaint for sure. He's not going to go .280/35/100. That would have been a big time season. Not bashing the kid, he's just a kid. But he's just decent, not special. that's all i'm saying. i'd love for him to be special more then anything else. He's not the best right fielder in the NL. He's not even close to Heyward right now. Andre Ethier is better as well. That's off the top of my head and not even mentioning Hunter Pence, among others

Again, no basis for the .270/25/80 comment.

RBI is a team stat. Throw it out. Not an assessment of an individual, and not relevant.

Batting average. Not a useless stat, but again, not a good determination of a hitter's value. OPS is much more valuable. Bruce has an .871 OPS. He had an OPS+ of 117 going into tonight. I'm guessing tonight is going to put him into the 125-130 range. Meaning he is a well above average hitter. He happens to be 23 years old. TWENTY THREE YEARS OLD. First baseball player I've ever truly admired that is younger than me (by just a few months).

He's just decent, and not special? STOP!

.871 OPS with gold glove defense at age 23 is the definition of special. If you are going to drag him down for what he has done this season, then you will NEVER be satisfied with him as a baseball player. Please tell me what Joey Votto was doing at age 23. I'll help you. He was OPS'ing .859 in AAA.

The sky is the limit for this kid. He is growing up right before our eyes, and you are dismissing everything that he is doing. You are honestly going out of your way to bring him down. And the basis-less comments continue. Andre Eithier is one of the worst RF'ers in baseball. He's a statue out there.

Not Jason Heyward? Heyward has a .324 BABIP with a 14% LD rate. That is the definition of lucky. Guess who else had great success his first two months in the MLB? Jay Bruce. I have no doubt that Heyward is going to be a great player, but don't make outrageous statements like "Bruce isn't even close to Heyward right now."

And you're lucky you didn't make a Hunter Pence comparison. I would have really enjoyed that one.

nate
05-30-2010, 07:47 AM
he's had some really bad stretches man. Like really, really ugly stretches. I've watched every at-bat with intent.

He's far from a Braun type. But he's not that far from a .300 hitter with some pop either. I think the type of competitive team we are this year hides him well. But he's going to fall well short of the expectations again in 2010... and I love Jay as much as anyone. He is a "ballplayer". He's just not a .280/35 HR/100 RBI guy yet.

Then your expectations are too high. He's incredibly valuable to the team.

mth123
05-30-2010, 08:03 AM
Jay Bruce is a core player who is extremely valuable, just scratching the surface and IMO will eventually become an annual MVP candidate. He's still a baby though. He's figured out that he doesn't need to take that dramatic uppercut that made him a lazy fly ball machine in 2009. The fact that he's adjusted has held down the HR total for now, but the line drive stroke he's now using will make him a deadly bat and eventually will still allow for an abundance of HR.

Lots of good from Jay already and lots of room to grow. Jay's continued maturation is the Reds best hedge for keeping up the overall team production as others come back to Earth a bit. Jay Bruce is the last thing on this team to worry about IMO.

Plus Plus
05-30-2010, 09:00 AM
Right now Jay Bruce is a .281/7/24 player (at 23 with an OPS of .871) who is absolutely declaring war on the ball. I'll take that line at the end of May every day of the week, twice on Sundays, and nine times against the Cubs.

jojo
05-30-2010, 09:25 AM
Jay Bruce is a core player who is extremely valuable, just scratching the surface and IMO will eventually become an annual MVP candidate. He's still a baby though. He's figured out that he doesn't need to take that dramatic uppercut that made him a lazy fly ball machine in 2009. The fact that he's adjusted has held down the HR total for now, but the line drive stroke he's now using will make him a deadly bat and eventually will still allow for an abundance of HR.

Lots of good from Jay already and lots of room to grow. Jay's continued maturation is the Reds best hedge for keeping up the overall team production as others come back to Earth a bit. Jay Bruce is the last thing on this team to worry about IMO.

Yes.

RedsManRick
05-30-2010, 10:26 AM
OK.

I love the guy, but right now he's a .270/ 25 HR/ 80 RBI guy.

If all that mattered were AVG, HR, and RBI, that might not be too valuable. But a .380 OBP is very valuable. Great RF defense is very valuable. And with his SLG, he'll wind up with more than 80 RBI if the guys ahead of him keep getting on base.

Does that make him "special"? I don't know. What do you consider special? He's playing like an all-star this season. He's playing like one of the top 5-6 players at his position in the sport. Maybe that's not MVP special, but I'll take 25 guys with that brand of special and win the WS.

Brutus
05-30-2010, 10:53 AM
Again, no basis for the .270/25/80 comment.

RBI is a team stat. Throw it out. Not an assessment of an individual, and not relevant.

Batting average. Not a useless stat, but again, not a good determination of a hitter's value. OPS is much more valuable. Bruce has an .871 OPS. He had an OPS+ of 117 going into tonight. I'm guessing tonight is going to put him into the 125-130 range. Meaning he is a well above average hitter. He happens to be 23 years old. TWENTY THREE YEARS OLD. First baseball player I've ever truly admired that is younger than me (by just a few months).

He's just decent, and not special? STOP!

.871 OPS with gold glove defense at age 23 is the definition of special. If you are going to drag him down for what he has done this season, then you will NEVER be satisfied with him as a baseball player. Please tell me what Joey Votto was doing at age 23. I'll help you. He was OPS'ing .859 in AAA.

The sky is the limit for this kid. He is growing up right before our eyes, and you are dismissing everything that he is doing. You are honestly going out of your way to bring him down. And the basis-less comments continue. Andre Eithier is one of the worst RF'ers in baseball. He's a statue out there.

Not Jason Heyward? Heyward has a .324 BABIP with a 14% LD rate. That is the definition of lucky. Guess who else had great success his first two months in the MLB? Jay Bruce. I have no doubt that Heyward is going to be a great player, but don't make outrageous statements like "Bruce isn't even close to Heyward right now."

And you're lucky you didn't make a Hunter Pence comparison. I would have really enjoyed that one.

It's his opinion. He has really high standards for Bruce. What's wrong with that? I think you should not get so worked up over his opinion - if he wants Bruce to be a 'special' player, then so be it.

I am glad, actually, that Jay Bruce has regressed his power output a bit this season in order to become a more complete hitter. In the long run, he will be better off for it. I actually agree with him in that Bruce has not been a 'special' hitter thus far, but he's growing as a hitter which is what will make him special. The fact he's already one of the best defensive right fielders in baseball makes him a very, very good player and has the ceiling of a Larry Walker type in the future.

But that said, I also can understand how one would say he has not been dominant for about half the season thus far. For me, I have no problem with that. An .870 OPS is still very good, especially for the position he plays. I don't agree with the veracity of JayBruce32's position on this, but I don't think anyone should be so worked up over it.

Scrap Irony
05-30-2010, 10:55 AM
Bruce is tied for second in the NL (5th overall) in WAR for RF, at 1.7.

All Star and elite positionally, IMO.

Raisor
05-30-2010, 11:00 AM
I don't agree with the veracity of JayBruce32's position on this, but I don't think anyone should be so worked up over it.

I don't think anyone is "worked up". I think this is a discussion board and people are discussing.

Brutus
05-30-2010, 11:10 AM
I don't think anyone is "worked up". I think this is a discussion board and people are discussing.

Really?

Well then perhaps I was thrown by the following...

"So go ahead and cherry pick your "bad stretches" and go on and assume that all players don't have "bad stretches", and try and take away from the fact that he has been an amazing contributor to the Reds as a 23 year old this year."

"We are seriously watching the blossoming of Jay Bruce, and you still have the nerve to try and bring him down."

And Jay actually plays defense (which Braun does not).

"The team we have hides him well? Please explain this. I have no response until you actually describe what you mean with this statement."

"His OPS is up 100 points from last year, and he is going to fall well short of expectations? Seriously, give me ONE FACT to justify this statement. There isn't one. Not one."

"Whatever your expectations are for Bruce, they are not realistic. If you don't realize that Bruce is one of the most valuable players in the NL, then I have nothing left to say to you, because you just don't understand baseball if you feel otherwise. You made your handle in honor of the guy, please don't try to bring him down with ZERO support for your argument."

--------------

Not trying to single out Homer, but I think those responses were a bit unnecessary.

IslandRed
05-30-2010, 11:13 AM
I am glad, actually, that Jay Bruce has regressed his power output a bit this season in order to become a more complete hitter. In the long run, he will be better off for it.

Really, I think it's more of a matter of working his way back to the type of hitter he was when he was successful before. Home-run power was never his sole or even primary calling card in the minor leagues when people were calling him the best prospect in baseball. He was a feared hitter, not just a feared slugger, a high-average guy hitting rockets all over the ballpark and getting his fair share over the wall. He needs to stick to that instead of worrying about fitting into the Middle Of The Order Hitter box or listening to the siren song of the short right-field porch of GABP. Like you said, there's a "quit trying to hit a home run every time up" component in that.

VR
05-30-2010, 11:27 AM
This 1st place business really brings out the worst of RZ, not sure that we can handle it. :)

Screwball
05-30-2010, 11:51 AM
I don't think anyone is "worked up". I think this is a discussion board and people are discussing.

Yep. I, for one, enjoyed Homer's posts immensely. Ragging on Jay Bruce while he has a 130 OPS+ will get you called out. Just for comparison's sake, Johnny Cueto has 131 ERA+, and he's been absolutely dealing for the last month or so.

Big Klu
05-30-2010, 11:57 AM
Really, I think it's more of a matter of working his way back to the type of hitter he was when he was successful before. Home-run power was never his sole or even primary calling card in the minor leagues when people were calling him the best prospect in baseball. He was a feared hitter, not just a feared slugger, a high-average guy hitting rockets all over the ballpark and getting his fair share over the wall. He needs to stick to that instead of worrying about fitting into the Middle Of The Order Hitter box or listening to the siren song of the short right-field porch of GABP. Like you said, there's a "quit trying to hit a home run every time up" component in that.

I think that there are a certain group of fans who were hoping that he would be "Adam Dunn Jr.", because, well, they really like Adam Dunn. I'm with you--that's not really his game. I think he is a more powerful version of Paul O'Neill. (Though I also think Paulie would also have been a more powerful version of Paul O'Neill if he had played in today's era instead of 20 years ago.)

Homer Bailey
05-30-2010, 12:22 PM
Not trying to single out Homer, but I think those responses were a bit unnecessary.

Haha.

dougdirt
05-30-2010, 12:42 PM
The amount of players 23 or younger in baseball that are clearly outplaying Jay Bruce in 2010 is limited to Jason Heyward. Rasmus, McCutchen and Ike Davis are in the same offensive range.

TheNext44
05-30-2010, 01:05 PM
Then your expectations are too high. He's incredibly valuable to the team.

There's not a single Reds player in my lifetime who came up with greater expectations than Jay Bruce. I think it's impossible for any Reds fan to have too high of expectations for Bruce considering how he was promoted by the Reds and the media.

JayBruce32 is right. Jay Bruce has not lived not lived up to his hype yet. But then again, I'm not sure he ever really could.

dougdirt
05-30-2010, 01:08 PM
There's not a single Reds player in my lifetime who came up with greater expectations than Jay Bruce. I think it's impossible for any Reds fan to have too high of expectations for Bruce considering how he was promoted by the Reds and the media.

JayBruce32 is right. Jay Bruce has not lived not lived up to his hype yet. But then again, I'm not sure he ever really could.

My question to this would be simple.... What did the hype lead you to expect, in numbers?

TheNext44
05-30-2010, 01:15 PM
My question to this would be simple.... What did the hype lead you to expect, in numbers?

That's the point. His hype went beyond numbers. He was hyped as the Savior. I actually remember him being called that in the media more than once.

Bruce has been a very solid above average player this year, but he was supposed to be the best player on the team and one of the best in the leauge. He was supposed to lead this team to championships. Maybe he will be one day, but he's fallen well short of that so far. Again, not his fault.

dougdirt
05-30-2010, 01:18 PM
That's the point. His hype went beyond numbers. He was hyped as the Savior. I actually remember him being called that in the media more than once.

Bruce has been a very solid above average player this year, but he was supposed to be the best player on the team and one of the best in the leauge. He was supposed to lead this team to championships. Maybe he will be one day, but he's fallen well short of that so far. Again, not his fault.

Jay Bruce may very well be the best player on this team before the year is up.

Falls City Beer
05-30-2010, 01:19 PM
What did I expect? Evan Longoria-ish numbers.

dougdirt
05-30-2010, 01:21 PM
What did I expect? Evan Longoria-ish numbers.

Evan Longoria at age 23 - .281/.364/.526/.889
Jay Bruce so far at age 23 - .281/.380/.491/.871

So is Jay meeting expectations?

Falls City Beer
05-30-2010, 01:30 PM
Evan Longoria at age 23 - .281/.364/.526/.889
Jay Bruce so far at age 23 - .281/.380/.491/.871

So is Jay meeting expectations?

Now try an apples-to-apples comparison.

dougdirt
05-30-2010, 01:32 PM
Now try an apples-to-apples comparison.
Oh, sorry. I thought comparing their age 23 seasons was apples to apples? Should I compare Jay's age 21 season to Evan's age 23 season? Where would that make sense?

TheNext44
05-30-2010, 01:33 PM
Jay Bruce may very well be the best player on this team before the year is up.

possibly, but right now, he's fourth or fifth, behind Votto, Rolen, Cueto, maybe Leake

Falls City Beer
05-30-2010, 01:36 PM
Oh, sorry. I thought comparing their age 23 seasons was apples to apples? Should I compare Jay's age 21 season to Evan's age 23 season? Where would that make sense?

1. You're comparing two months to the whole season.

2. You're comparing OPS regardless of position. At age 23, Longoria was posting OPS numbers at third that would make Mike Schmidt and Scott Rolen blush. In RF in a much weaker league, in a very helpful offensive park, and in a terrible division, Bruce has been basically Colby Rasmus. That's not an insult, but it's definitely not Longoria status, and it certainly hasn't matched his hype. As Next 44 said, though, the hype isn't Bruce's creation, so I don't consider anything to be his fault.

dougdirt
05-30-2010, 01:37 PM
possibly, but right now, he's fourth or fifth, behind Votto, Rolen, Cueto, maybe Leake

Using WAR so far this season, Jay is 2nd behind just Joey Votto.

dougdirt
05-30-2010, 01:40 PM
1. You're comparing two months to the whole season.

2. You're comparing OPS regardless of position. At age 23, Longoria was posting OPS numbers at third that would make Mike Schmidt and Scott Rolen blush. In RF in a much weaker league, in a very helpful offensive park, and in a terrible division, Bruce has been basically Colby Rasmus. That's not an insult, but it's definitely not Longoria status, and it certainly hasn't matched his hype. As Next 44 said, though, the hype isn't Bruce's creation, so I don't consider anything to be his fault.

Longoria's OPS+, which is league and park adjusted was 135. Jay is currently at 130. Pretty close.

Sure, its two months to a whole year, but this season, is Jay meeting your expectations?

Falls City Beer
05-30-2010, 01:42 PM
Longoria's OPS+, which is league and park adjusted was 135. Jay is currently at 130. Pretty close.

Sure, its two months to a whole year, but this season, is Jay meeting your expectations?

Defensively, yes. Offensively, I'll just say he hasn't been this good for this long yet in his career, so it's a very good start.

dougdirt
05-30-2010, 01:43 PM
Defensively, yes. Offensively, I'll just say he hasn't been this good for this long yet in his career, so it's a very good start.

So you aren't answering the question which is very simple. Has Jay Bruce met your expectations so far this season? Regardless of what he does moving forward, so far this year, has he met your expectations for him? Its real simple.

kaldaniels
05-30-2010, 01:45 PM
Expecting a RZ member to cede a point is anything but simple. :D

Ghosts of 1990
05-30-2010, 01:46 PM
Jay Bruce is my 2nd favorite ballplayer of my young life, I'm 27. I love the guy, think he's a great person. I don't want ANYONE to take it personal on here, I'm just talking baseball with the most knowledgable group of fans on the internet.... I learn something every day on this board. Again--don't let my words get you worked up, it's only one man's opinion.

Falls City Beer
05-30-2010, 01:51 PM
So you aren't answering the question which is very simple. Has Jay Bruce met your expectations so far this season? Regardless of what he does moving forward, so far this year, has he met your expectations for him? Its real simple.

No. He hasn't lived up to his hype. He's been a very good contributer, but he's not an elite producer for a RF.

membengal
05-30-2010, 01:52 PM
No. He hasn't lived up to his hype. He's been a very good contributer, but he's not an elite producer for a RF.

You still didn't answer the question.

Falls City Beer
05-30-2010, 01:53 PM
You still didn't answer the question.

No. The answer's no. He hasn't lived up to my expectations for him. It's right there in my post above.

membengal
05-30-2010, 01:56 PM
You said the hype. That is different from your expectations. So you also expected a .900+ OPS guy in his first few years.

Fair enough. Unreasonable, in my view, but, hey, they are your expectations. It does explain some of your general grumpiness at times though.

dougdirt
05-30-2010, 01:57 PM
No. He hasn't lived up to his hype. He's been a very good contributer, but he's not an elite producer for a RF.

He is for 2010.

Falls City Beer
05-30-2010, 01:58 PM
You said the hype. That is different from your expectations. So you also expected a .900+ OPS guy in his first few years.

Fair enough. Unreasonable, in my view, but, hey, they are your expectations. It does explain some of your general grumpiness at times though.

The guy was sold as the next Pujols. We got Colby Rasmus. Nothing wrong with that. But it's different. I think it's important to acknowledge the difference between a 6.6 WAR player and 1.5 WAR player myself. Sue me.

Falls City Beer
05-30-2010, 01:58 PM
He is for 2010.

For the month of May, yes.

dougdirt
05-30-2010, 01:58 PM
For the month of May, yes.

For the season of 2010, yes.

Falls City Beer
05-30-2010, 01:59 PM
For the season of 2010, yes.

You do understand the difference in sample sizes, right?

dougdirt
05-30-2010, 02:00 PM
The guy was sold as the next Pujols. We got Colby Rasmus. Nothing wrong with that. But it's different. I think it's important to acknowledge the difference between a 6.6 WAR player and 1.5 WAR player myself. Sue me.

No one sold him as Albert Pujols. Not a single person.

membengal
05-30-2010, 02:00 PM
The guy was sold as the next Pujols. We got Colby Rasmus. Nothing wrong with that. But it's different. I think it's important to acknowledge the difference between a 6.6 WAR player and 1.5 WAR player myself. Sue me.

I'm not going to win an argument with you as to your memory. I will simply say this, if you thought the hype was the next pujols, that is hype I don't remember.

The comp that was used, a LOT, for him, was Walker. And his trajectory so far has tracked Walkers.

I am sorry you set such crazed expectations for Bruce. He's doing just fine.

Falls City Beer
05-30-2010, 02:01 PM
I'm not going to win an argument with you as to your memory. I will simply say this, if you thought the hype was the next pujols, that is hype I don't remember.

The comp that was used, a LOT, for him, was Walker. And his trajectory so far has tracked Walkers.

I am sorry you set such crazed expectations for Bruce. He's doing just fine.

He was certainly as hyped as Longoria--or any other small market uber-prospect.

dougdirt
05-30-2010, 02:01 PM
You do understand the difference in sample sizes, right?

wat iz a simpel siz?

We are 30% through the season and to this point, Jay Bruce has been one of the best right fielders in the game.

Big Klu
05-30-2010, 02:02 PM
The guy was sold as the next Pujols. We got Colby Rasmus. Nothing wrong with that. But it's different. I think it's important to acknowledge the difference between a 6.6 WAR player and 1.5 WAR player myself. Sue me.

Agreed. We were told that he was the next Roy Hobbs. So far, we have Paul O'Neill 2.0--which isn't a bad thing, but it wasn't what we were led to expect by the Reds, the media, the folks here at RedsZone, and possibly even by Bruce himself.

Ghosts of 1990
05-30-2010, 02:03 PM
That's the point. His hype went beyond numbers. He was hyped as the Savior. I actually remember him being called that in the media more than once.

Bruce has been a very solid above average player this year, but he was supposed to be the best player on the team and one of the best in the leauge. He was supposed to lead this team to championships. Maybe he will be one day, but he's fallen well short of that so far. Again, not his fault.

This was really what I was trying to say.

I thought he was going to be our Longoria, our Braun.... etc.

Maybe that's unfair to hope for--but it was my hope. He might end up that type yet by year's end I'd be ecstatic if he did. But he just hasn't done it thus far.

dougdirt
05-30-2010, 02:06 PM
This was really what I was trying to say.

I thought he was going to be our Longoria, our Braun.... etc.

Maybe that's unfair to hope for--but it was my hope. He might end up that type yet by year's end I'd be ecstatic if he did. But he just hasn't done it thus far.

Ryan Braun had 24 at bats at this time in his age 23 season. He had 1 HR, no walks and 7 strikeouts.

OnBaseMachine
05-30-2010, 02:09 PM
I can't believe people are acting like Bruce is a finished product. He turned 23 years old last month.

Falls City Beer
05-30-2010, 02:11 PM
I can't believe people are acting like Bruce is a finished product. He turned 23 years old last month.

It's not that young anymore in this game, especially for an offensive player.

And the argument isn't that he couldn't become a great player. It's that he hasn't matched his hype. Nothing more nothing less.

dougdirt
05-30-2010, 02:12 PM
It's not that young anymore in this game, especially for an offensive player.

And the argument isn't that he couldn't become a great player. It's that he hasn't matched his hype. Nothing more nothing less.
It's not that young anymore? 19 position players in the game are younger than 24 and have 80 PA this year.

Falls City Beer
05-30-2010, 02:14 PM
It's not that young anymore? 19 position players in the game are younger than 24 and have 80 PA this year.

19 regular players is quite a lot.

dougdirt
05-30-2010, 02:16 PM
19 regular players is quite a lot.

That is about .67 players per team. That is not 'quite a lot'.

11larkin11
05-30-2010, 08:46 PM
Agreed. We were told that he was the next Roy Hobbs. So far, we have Paul O'Neill 2.0--which isn't a bad thing, but it wasn't what we were led to expect by the Reds, the media, the folks here at RedsZone, and possibly even by Bruce himself.

Actually, it was Hamilton compared to Roy Hobbs.

Bruce was ALWAYS compared to Larry Walker.

Ghosts of 1990
05-30-2010, 09:11 PM
What do you guys think it would take for the Reds to offer Bruce a long-term extension that would buy out his arbitration years?

TheNext44
05-30-2010, 09:43 PM
Actually, it was Hamilton compared to Roy Hobbs.

Bruce was ALWAYS compared to Larry Walker.

You're right that Hamilton was always called Roy Hobbs in somewhat jest, and Bruce was compared to Walker by baseball experts.

But one of the main reasons why Hamilton was traded was because of the high expectations for Bruce. I think it is safe to say that they both suffered from the "Roy Hobbs Syndrome." This was amplified for Bruce after his amazing start to his career. Regardless of what players Bruce was compared to, he was considered the next Reds "Savior."

Scrap Irony
05-30-2010, 09:57 PM
Bruce was Larry Walker for a year and a half before he even came up. He stayed Larry Walker until last season when he stuggled.

He's been Larry Walker this season as well.

Whether that's not enough for some fans is between them and... well, I guess it's entirely up to them.

TheNext44
05-30-2010, 10:14 PM
Bruce was Larry Walker for a year and a half before he even came up. He stayed Larry Walker until last season when he stuggled.

He's been Larry Walker this season as well.

Whether that's not enough for some fans is between them and... well, I guess it's entirely up to them.

There is a huge difference between what sites like Fangraphs, Baseball-America and Baseball Prospectus say about a player and what the media and the Teams's PR machine say.

Experts made statistical and scouting observations that Bruce projects to have a career similar to Larry Walker.

The media and Reds PR could care less what logical comparison could be made to Bruce. They dubbed him as the Reds next great player and leader, the player that would lead to team out of their losing ways and to Championships.

Remember that Bruce was named the #1 prospect in all of baseball in 2008. And up until last season, he was considered to be a much better prospect than Votto. No one dreamed of trading Bruce, but Votto's name was always mentioned in deals for pitching, until last season.

It would be impossible for the expectations for Bruce to be higher than they were up until last season.

Ron Madden
05-30-2010, 10:20 PM
The kid is 23 years old. He's doing fine just let him play, He'll produce.

BearcatShane
05-31-2010, 01:22 AM
I get what JB32 is trying to say. I'll be honest, when they called Jay up and after his first month I thought he would be a .300/.400/.500 guy. Not fair of me but thats what I saw. He really struggled last year but thats a good thing because I think learning from last year when he played and when he watched when he was hurt has helped him this year as is evidence by that rock solid OBP. Now at the extremely young age of 23, Jay is starting to realize his potential. He'll probably hit 20-25 homers with 80 RBI and a OBP north of .350 as his walks have increased tremendously. Along with that GG defense in right. All that at 23, and I think it's only the tip of the iceberg.

OnBaseMachine
05-31-2010, 11:39 AM
From Lance's blog:


Cool Jay Bruce story
This past Saturday Jay Bruce hit his 50th career home run. The guy who caught the ball ended up being a little league coach with 11 or so of his players at the game. A member of the Reds organization went to try and retrieve the ball from the man. He offered up a signed ball in return for the home run ball and the coach agreed.
In the end Jay Bruce ended up sending the Reds staff back to the stands with not one signed ball but enough for the coach and his whole team.

http://www.700wlw.com/pages/lancesBlog.html

yab1112
05-31-2010, 01:03 PM
That's a pretty awesome story. That's not a game those kids will forget soon. :thumbup:

BearcatShane
05-31-2010, 01:52 PM
From Lance's blog:



http://www.700wlw.com/pages/lancesBlog.html

I was sitting a section over in 144, I was wonderong what was going on over there. Cool story. Jay is as classy as the come, I'v got some great Jay Bruce stories that will never hit the press, but lets just say he's the easiest guy I'v ever had to root for.

VR
05-31-2010, 02:07 PM
From Lance's blog:



http://www.700wlw.com/pages/lancesBlog.html

Jay gets it. This is good.

Falls City Beer
06-01-2010, 08:35 PM
Okay, so Bruce is probably a notch below Rasmus. Dude is a serious monster.

Ghosts of 1990
06-07-2010, 10:27 PM
Nice game tonight, Jay.

3-4, HR, 2B, Single. Line drives the other way. Threw out another runner.

forfreelin04
06-08-2010, 10:42 AM
Nice game tonight, Jay.

3-4, HR, 2B, Single. Line drives the other way. Threw out another runner.

He also corrected his "happy hands" he had in Washington. Don't know if he did it on purpose or not, but he slowed his hand movements down to a halt when the pitch was coming. He seems to be really locked in at the plate versus a lefty. Great job by Jay to stick with it and correct his flaws.

RedsManRick
06-08-2010, 11:43 AM
Though its hardly a significant sample, Bruce has hit lefties to the tune of .269/.355/.463 compared to .279/.373/.478 -- basically a single or two's difference. If both he and Votto can hit LHP well, that's going to be a huge boon for the offense, particularly late in games.

A quick look at his peripherals shows a guy who is making much more good contact and not falling behind 0-1 as often. Interestingly, he's actually striking out more often this year despite seeing fewer pitches this year (per ESPN) and making significantly better contact outside of the zone (per Fangraphs). His overall swing% is down a bit (48.1% to 44.0%). Is it possible he's just contracted his zone a bit, Dunn style. It might lead to a few more bad counts, but it means that when he does swing, he's going after pitches he can drive.

Of course, this might be reading tea leaves considering his ridiculously low BABIP last year. Give him those hits that bad luck cost him and we'd probably be looking at a line more similar to what we're currently seeing. Other thoughts?



BB% K% LD% GB% FB% HR/FB BABIP eBABIP Cont% FStr% SwStr%
2009 9.8 21.7 13.0 38.5 48.5 16.8% .221 .294 75.9 59.7 11.3
2010 12.4 25.1 23.2 40.4 36.4 14.5% .331 .313 77.6 53.0 9.5

Ghosts of 1990
06-08-2010, 12:45 PM
Though its hardly a significant sample, Bruce has hit lefties to the tune of .269/.355/.463 compared to .279/.373/.478 -- basically a single or two's difference. If both he and Votto can hit LHP well, that's going to be a huge boon for the offense, particularly late in games.

A quick look at his peripherals shows a guy who is making much more good contact and not falling behind 0-1 as often. Interestingly, he's actually striking out more often this year despite seeing fewer pitches this year (per ESPN) and making significantly better contact outside of the zone (per Fangraphs). His overall swing% is down a bit (48.1% to 44.0%). Is it possible he's just contracted his zone a bit, Dunn style. It might lead to a few more bad counts, but it means that when he does swing, he's going after pitches he can drive.

Of course, this might be reading tea leaves considering his ridiculously low BABIP last year. Give him those hits that bad luck cost him and we'd probably be looking at a line more similar to what we're currently seeing. Other thoughts?



BB% K% LD% GB% FB% HR/FB BABIP eBABIP Cont% FStr% SwStr%
2009 9.8 21.7 13.0 38.5 48.5 16.8% .221 .294 75.9 59.7 11.3
2010 12.4 25.1 23.2 40.4 36.4 14.5% .331 .313 77.6 53.0 9.5


I don't know what's going on but he's markedly better vs. lefties this season. Didn't know the numbers were that good but it looks like he is getting better hacks.

My only other thought would be... he hasn't had many 'gift' hits. Aka, "it all evens out" hits that make up for the way he was robbed of about a dozen or so in the first two weeks of the season.

If he hadn't been robbed of those 10-12 hits, we're looking at a near .300 hitter, which would be really cool to see him develop into.

VR
06-08-2010, 12:58 PM
I don't know what's going on but he's markedly better vs. lefties this season. Didn't know the numbers were that good but it looks like he is getting better hacks.

My only other thought would be... he hasn't had many 'gift' hits. Aka, "it all evens out" hits that make up for the way he was robbed of about a dozen or so in the first two weeks of the season.

If he hadn't been robbed of those 10-12 hits, we're looking at a near .300 hitter, which would be really cool to see him develop into.

He looks like he's quickly developing into a 280-300 guy. His approach vs. lefties has dramatically changed...he is MUCH more comfortable vs. them. His punching one into left after crushing a homer his previous bat was an incredible sign of maturity....not falling in love w/ the long ball, take what the pitcher gives you.

His weaknesses still come out occasionally, but they are fewer and far between from where they were.

Caveat Emperor
06-08-2010, 02:50 PM
Just eyeballing him during games, it's clear that his pitch recognition is improving. He used to be a dead out on anything breaking low and outside. You could junkball Jay Bruce and reliably put him into a hole or strike him out.

Now? He's doing a much better job laying off the low and away pitch, especially from lefties. You're starting to see him pitched a lot differently now as a result.

Cedric
06-09-2010, 12:16 AM
Just eyeballing him during games, it's clear that his pitch recognition is improving. He used to be a dead out on anything breaking low and outside. You could junkball Jay Bruce and reliably put him into a hole or strike him out.

Now? He's doing a much better job laying off the low and away pitch, especially from lefties. You're starting to see him pitched a lot differently now as a result.

He has a VERY long swing right now. Bust him inside or up with a fastball and it's an almost certain out.

If he gets a hanger he won't miss. He also is doing a nice job of taking pitches away and not trying to pull off right now.

OnBaseMachine
06-09-2010, 01:31 AM
From Fangraphs:


Jay Bruce, Reds

“The Boss” entered the season as a prime rebound candidate, given his history of pulverizing minor league pitching and his strong walk and power numbers that were obscured by a low BABIP in 2009. So far, so good for Cincy’s 23-year-old right fielder: Bruce has a .368 wOBA.

He hasn’t quite displayed the light-tower power of past seasons (.197 ISO), but Bruce is still putting a charge into the ball often enough while continuing to improve his plate discipline. His rate of swings on pitches outside of the strike zone has gone from 30.4% in 2008 to 26.1% last season, to 24.4% in 2010. Consequently, his walk rate has climbed — 7.3% in ‘08, 9.8% in ‘09 and 12.4% this year. Bruce has top-shelf secondary skills, and the best is yet to come.


http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/stock-watch-june-8th/

Ron Madden
06-09-2010, 02:50 AM
Jay Bruce is doing a hell of a lot better than the Reds PBP guys give him credit for. Isn't it about time Fans stopped taking everything they hear from these guys as the gospel truth?

Ghosts of 1990
06-10-2010, 10:06 AM
First time I've said this all year, but we face a RHP the next four games at home. That plays into Bruce's split favors.

It goes: Wellemeyer, Hochevar, Bannister, and on Sunday it's Greinke.

Of those four game, I say Jay Bruce ends the run with three home runs.

Ghosts of 1990
06-12-2010, 01:05 AM
He's got the flat stroke going right now where his bat stays in the zone for a long time. 432 foot bomb tonight.

Ghosts of 1990
06-13-2010, 02:45 PM
HRs come in bunches. 2 HR in the next week and he's right on track. If he's at 10 HR at the ASB, I'd be worried.

About a month to go to hit a couple :(

Ghosts of 1990
06-17-2010, 10:43 AM
Still stuck under 10 HR and still in the 20's for RBI.

:confused:

Really wish that Jay would start driving the ball. He's not doing anything right now. Disappearing for a couple days or a week in a pennant race, you can't have it.

nate
06-17-2010, 11:30 AM
Jay Bruce on 6/17/2010:



Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS tOPS+ sOPS+
2010 Totals 66 63 268 235 38 63 11 4 9 29 5 2 30 58 .268 .351 .464 .815 100 120
Last 7 days 5 5 22 20 3 5 1 1 1 2 0 0 1 6 .250 .273 .550 .823 96 113
Last 14 days 12 12 51 47 6 13 2 1 2 5 0 1 3 11 .277 .314 .489 .803 95 114
Last 28 days 25 24 104 95 12 26 5 1 5 13 1 1 8 21 .274 .327 .505 .832 102 123

The Operator
06-17-2010, 11:35 AM
Jay Bruce doesn't pitch so he's far from my biggest worry about this team right now.

edabbs44
06-17-2010, 11:35 AM
I'm happy with Jay's progress this season. Still young. He will be a great long-term asset to this club. Maybe he isn't an all-star or MVP candidate right now but as long as he continues to improve I will be happy.

OnBaseMachine
06-17-2010, 11:37 AM
Jay Bruce on 6/17/2010:



Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS tOPS+ sOPS+
2010 Totals 66 63 268 235 38 63 11 4 9 29 5 2 30 58 .268 .351 .464 .815 100 120
Last 7 days 5 5 22 20 3 5 1 1 1 2 0 0 1 6 .250 .273 .550 .823 96 113
Last 14 days 12 12 51 47 6 13 2 1 2 5 0 1 3 11 .277 .314 .489 .803 95 114
Last 28 days 25 24 104 95 12 26 5 1 5 13 1 1 8 21 .274 .327 .505 .832 102 123


Yeah, but what's his batting average and how many RBI does he have? :rolleyes:;)

I've been very pleased with Jay's progress this season. To this point he has a 115 OPS+ and has been a Gold Glove caliber defender in RF.

bucksfan2
06-17-2010, 11:41 AM
Yeah, but what's his batting average and how many RBI does he have? :rolleyes:;)

I've been very pleased with Jay's progress this season. To this point he has a 115 OPS+ and has been a Gold Glove caliber defender in RF.

It is disappointing that Bruce only has 29 RBI's. If you make the point that it is a team driven stat well these are the 3 guys who are directly hitting in front of Bruce and their OBP:
Gomes .362
Rolen .366
Votto .404
Suffice to say that Bruce has had quite a few chances to knock runs in, it just hasn't shown up in the stat line.

nate
06-17-2010, 11:45 AM
Yeah, but what's his batting average and how many RBI does he have? :rolleyes:;)

I've been very pleased with Jay's progress this season. To this point he has a 115 OPS+ and has been a Gold Glove caliber defender in RF.

Yes.

Raisor
06-17-2010, 11:52 AM
I blame Joey Votto

edabbs44
06-17-2010, 11:53 AM
It is disappointing that Bruce only has 29 RBI's. If you make the point that it is a team driven stat well these are the 3 guys who are directly hitting in front of Bruce and their OBP:
Gomes .362
Rolen .366
Votto .404
Suffice to say that Bruce has had quite a few chances to knock runs in, it just hasn't shown up in the stat line.

He definitely hasn't been getting it done with runners on, that's for sure.

Cedric
06-17-2010, 11:56 AM
His swing is still very long. Once he works more on that he will be golden. At this point even a decent fastball gets by Jay.

nate
06-17-2010, 12:05 PM
I blame Joey Votto

Same.

Spring~Fields
06-17-2010, 12:34 PM
I blame Joey Votto

In a world of small samples, I blame toothpicks and arm bands.

The list is deep before Bruces name comes up



Last Seven Days Season
Cairo .143 .143 .143 .286 .274 .312 .397 .709
Cabrera .143 .217 .143 .360 .259 .299 .357 .655
Janish .125 .300 .125 .425 .250 .375 .400 .775
Stubbs .217 .208 .261 .469 .243 .317 .408 .725
Miller .250 .250 .250 .500 .071 .071 .071 .143
Nix .250 .250 .250 .500 .253 .287 .470 .757
Hernandez .313 .313 .313 .625 .253 .287 .470 .757
Rolen .333 .348 .333 .681 .307 .366 .586 .952
Bruce .292 .308 .542 .849 .268 .351 .464 .815
Votto .261 .393 .522 .915 .304 .404 .540 .944
Gomes .318 .360 .682 1.042 .302 .362 .534 .897
Phillips .550 .591 .800 1.391 .310 .371 .483 .853
Heisey .750 .833 1.000 1.833 .314 .415 .771 1.186

Bruce can't get any rest. Reds have played 66, Bruce has played 66, and even when Bruce is asleep the message boards are after him to do more, even though many do less above him.

The Operator
06-17-2010, 03:21 PM
I just don't get why people are worrying about the guy with the .822 OPS who's playing great defense in the outfield. :confused:

I'd worry more about the guys with ERAs rapidly approaching infinity.

Ghosts of 1990
06-17-2010, 04:04 PM
I just don't get why people are worrying about the guy with the .822 OPS who's playing great defense in the outfield. :confused:

I'd worry more about the guys with ERAs rapidly approaching infinity.

I'm worried about them as well. Just missing the power numbers

fearofpopvol1
06-17-2010, 04:26 PM
I think Jay overall has looked very good. All he really needs is to knock in a few more home runs.

VR
06-17-2010, 04:32 PM
I think Jay overall has looked very good. All he really needs is to knock in a few more home runs.

I'm still amazed at the amount of balls he stings that are run down or right at someone. He's OPSing 820 or so right now....and that should keep moving upward.

OnBaseMachine
06-17-2010, 04:35 PM
I'm still amazed at the amount of balls he stings that are run down or right at someone. He's OPSing 820 or so right now....and that should keep moving upward.

Pat Burrell made the catch of his life last week to rob Bruce of a 3-run double. I couldn't believe Burrell caught that ball. He basically just threw his glove in the air and somehow the ball landed in his glove.

It seems like horrible defenders always make web gems against the Reds. I remember last month when Carlos Lee made a leaping catch at the wall to rob Scott Rolen of a 2-run double. It had to be the best catch of Lee's career.

TRF
06-17-2010, 05:36 PM
It is disappointing that Bruce only has 29 RBI's. If you make the point that it is a team driven stat well these are the 3 guys who are directly hitting in front of Bruce and their OBP:
Gomes .362
Rolen .366
Votto .404
Suffice to say that Bruce has had quite a few chances to knock runs in, it just hasn't shown up in the stat line.

Go ahead and add Phillips and his .372 OBP

then somehow subtract the 46HR's combined that have been hit by those guys batting in front of him. He does have low numbers with runners on, not denying that. He doesn't even have the high OBP that Dunn would have, but overall, he's been pretty productive. 42 of his 127 PA's with runners on were with 2 outs. 10 times in that situation he walked, one HBP. overall he's just 5 hits shy of hitting .280 with runners on.

I'm not sweating 5 hits in june.

Ron Madden
06-18-2010, 03:01 AM
I just don't get why people are worrying about the guy with the .822 OPS who's playing great defense in the outfield. :confused:

I'd worry more about the guys with ERAs rapidly approaching infinity.

They are worrying because Marty and Jeff keep telling them that Bruce doesn't have a good BA/RISP, that Jay may not have the mental ability or intestinal fortitude to be a consistent run producer. Sounds silly but some fans believe everything they hear on the radio.

HokieRed
06-18-2010, 07:53 AM
They are worrying because Marty and Jeff keep telling them that Bruce doesn't have a good BA/RISP, that Jay may not have the mental ability or intestinal fortitude to be a consistent run producer. Sounds silly but some fans believe everything they hear on the radio.

One reason I never listen to Marty any more. Bruce remains the least of our worries.

redsfandan
06-18-2010, 08:36 AM
I still listen to Marty and Jeff. I just take some things they say with a grain of salt. I'm not worried about Bruce. Right now the pitching is the biggest concern by far.

Nasty_Boy
06-18-2010, 10:20 AM
Against Washington two weeks ago, Cowboy went on for an inning and a half about Jay Bruce striking out with 1 out after Rolen had led off with a double. One AB was worthy of 15 mins of taking the kid to task because he was one of 3 outs in the inning. I think its great that we don't have to count on a 23 year old to carry the lineup. He's putting up very solid numbers, and he's probably the best defensive RF in the game. To worry about his RBI total is crazy... I still think he makes a push at 30 HRs and probably have 75+ RBIs from the 6th spot in the lineup.

RichRed
06-18-2010, 10:34 AM
Jay Bruce is on pace for this line:

.272/.353/.469/.822 with 94 runs, 22 HR, 73 RBIs, 29 doubles, 10 triples and 73 walks

All while providing excellent defense in RF...AS A 23-YEAR-OLD!

I could not be less concerned about Jay Bruce right now.

nemesis
06-18-2010, 10:41 AM
Jay Bruce is on pace for this line:

.272/.353/.469/.822 with 94 runs, 22 HR, 73 RBIs, 29 doubles, 10 triples and 73 walks

All while providing excellent defense in RF...AS A 23-YEAR-OLD!

I could not be less concerned about Jay Bruce right now.

Solid.

RedsManRick
06-18-2010, 11:28 AM
Here's a little RBI analysis for those inclined to care about them. R1, R2, R3 are the times the batter has hit with a man on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd base respectively. The % is the times those runners have been driven in. OBI% is the percentage of all runners on base driven in. This figure is very context sensitive -- the individual base figures are the better points of comparison .

For reference, here are the distributions of opportunity conversation rates for all batters with at least 50 PA_ROB.
https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/L6C-ZRezgBB4Tcio3u7xEQWuJV9Wl3MLhS0JAQZxdZKQ7Za3tbaMeK 7HVGQZJ63i6_6ERFdD7dKbJ4FHLj0Y1LA0HQ=s512


R1BI% R2BI% R3BI% OBI%
AVG 4.9% 15.8% 37.5% 14.3%
STDEV 3.1% 5.7% 11.7% 3.8%

And here are the Reds with at least 50 PA_ROB.



PA PA_ROB R1 R2 R3 R1BI% R2BI% R3BI% OBI%
Votto 269 133 78 60 31 11.5% 16.7% 32.3% 17.2%
Bruce 272 131 92 64 35 2.2% 15.6% 25.7% 11.0%
Phillips 296 129 77 61 21 1.3% 13.1% 28.6% 9.4%
Rolen 247 122 86 58 36 5.8% 20.7% 38.9% 17.2%
Gomes 222 115 86 43 34 8.1% 27.9% 58.8% 23.9%
Stubbs 250 111 75 55 34 2.7% 20.0% 32.4% 14.6%
Cabrera 284 103 69 44 26 5.8% 11.4% 57.7% 17.3%
Hernandez 165 80 60 26 28 0.0% 15.4% 32.1% 11.4%

Bruce has been below average at converting RBI opportunities, mostly converting them with runners on 3B. I wonder how often he's getting those opportunities with 2 outs compared to average.

Gomes, on the other hand, has been an RBI freak. He's 4th in MLB with his OBI%, behind (interestingly) Nelson Cruz, Carlos Gomez and Shane Victorino.

edabbs44
06-18-2010, 11:37 AM
Here's a little RBI analysis for those inclined to care about them. R1, R2, R3 are the times the batter has hit with a man on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd base respectively. The % is the times those runners have been driven in. OBI% is the percentage of all runners on base driven in. This figure is very context sensitive -- the individual base figures are the better points of comparison .

For reference, here are the distributions of opportunity conversation rates for all batters with at least 50 PA_ROB.
https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/L6C-ZRezgBB4Tcio3u7xEQWuJV9Wl3MLhS0JAQZxdZKQ7Za3tbaMeK 7HVGQZJ63i6_6ERFdD7dKbJ4FHLj0Y1LA0HQ=s512


R1BI% R2BI% R3BI% OBI%
AVG 4.9% 15.8% 37.5% 14.3%
STDEV 3.1% 5.7% 11.7% 3.8%

And here are the Reds with at least 50 PA_ROB.



PA PA_ROB R1 R2 R3 R1BI% R2BI% R3BI% OBI%
Votto 269 133 78 60 31 11.5% 16.7% 32.3% 17.2%
Bruce 272 131 92 64 35 2.2% 15.6% 25.7% 11.0%
Phillips 296 129 77 61 21 1.3% 13.1% 28.6% 9.4%
Rolen 247 122 86 58 36 5.8% 20.7% 38.9% 17.2%
Gomes 222 115 86 43 34 8.1% 27.9% 58.8% 23.9%
Stubbs 250 111 75 55 34 2.7% 20.0% 32.4% 14.6%
Cabrera 284 103 69 44 26 5.8% 11.4% 57.7% 17.3%
Hernandez 165 80 60 26 28 0.0% 15.4% 32.1% 11.4%

Bruce has been below average at converting RBI opportunities, mostly converting them with runners on 3B. I wonder how often he's getting those opportunities with 2 outs compared to average.

Gomes, on the other hand, has been an RBI freak. He's 4th in MLB with his OBI%, behind (interestingly) Nelson Cruz, Carlos Gomez and Shane Victorino.

Bruce is 1-16 with a runner on 3rd and 2 out with a line of .063/.250/.063. Yowser.

He is 5-12 with a runner on third and less than 2 out with a .417/.400/.667 line.

Since you brought up RBI Freak, he is 3-6 with 2 out (.500/.667/.500) and 9-18 (.500/.360/.889) with less than two out.

Scrap Irony
06-18-2010, 12:21 PM
As I understood it, a good OBI% is around 16-17%, yes?

If so, how bad are Philips' numbers?

RedsManRick
06-18-2010, 01:23 PM
As I understood it, a good OBI% is around 16-17%, yes?

If so, how bad are Philips' numbers?

Average is ~14%. 18% or higher puts you in the upper 1/3 of the league.

Phillips 259th of 288 in my sample. Of course, Prince Fielder is at 284. These things are quite variable. Considering that players don't have much influence over when they hit well, we're probably better off just looking at SLG%.

I find it interesting how willing people are to ignore base-runners on first base when they talk about "in scoring position."

Runners on 1B comprise 49% of the opportunities. 2B is at 34% and 3B at 18%. In other words, standard "in scoring position" logic ignores half of all possible runner batted in opportunities. And considering runners on 2B are more similar to 1B than 3B in terms of conversion rates, it's a pretty silly distinction.

I would love to see us use an RBI slash stat of the conversion rates instead of the raw RBI counts if we're going to talk about how much of an "RBI" guy somebody is.

nate
06-18-2010, 04:28 PM
I meant to post this yesterday because I was looking at the data Rick just posted (thunder thief!)

Bruce hasn't done well with men on this year. He's had 129 PA with runners on and converted just 10.6% of them into runs. Among Reds with more than 75 PAs (it seemed like a good split point between guys who've played regularly and the pitchers + Milk Carton Janish), that's 2nd worse. Surprisingly, the worst player at converting baserunners to runs is BP who's had 128 PA/ROB and converted 9.5% of them to runs.

On the other hand, Hanigan has converted 24.6% runners to runs in 40 PA/ROB while Gomes has done it 24.1% of the time with 114 PA/ROB. This is good for 4th and 5th respectively in the big leagues. O-Cab is 3rd on the Reds followed by Rolen and Votto who are all above 16.5%.

That said, I don't think 125-ish PAs tells us much other than "that happened." I think he'll get more hits falling as the year goes on. He's still getting on base and slugging decently while playing great RF defense. He doesn't have an extreme

Ghosts of 1990
06-19-2010, 01:19 AM
Jay had 3 of the worst at bats I've probably ever seen against Cliff Lee tonight, I'd say okay Heisey or Stubbs but they're both abhorrent as well.

fearofpopvol1
06-19-2010, 01:22 AM
it really is true. bruce looked terrible against lee.

11larkin11
06-19-2010, 01:22 AM
Jay had 3 of the worst at bats I've probably ever seen against Cliff Lee tonight, I'd say okay Heisey or Stubbs but they're both abhorrent as well.

Really? Worst at bats ever? Sit him?

:rolleyes::thumbdown

nate
06-19-2010, 09:01 AM
Jay Bruce looked bad against one of the best left-handed pitchers in baseball?

Whoa, nelly!

Ghosts of 1990
06-19-2010, 09:20 AM
Just once, it'd be nice to see him have a day against a guy like we face tonight in Felix Hernandez. Seems like he still looks over matched more often then not. How did he start his big league career on fire

pahster
06-19-2010, 11:38 AM
Just once, it'd be nice to see him have a day against a guy like we face tonight in Felix Hernandez. Seems like he still looks over matched more often then not. How did he start his big league career on fire

Cliff Lee is a beast. There's no shame in having a bad day at the plate against him. This is Jay Bruce's line so far this year: .269/.349/.463/.812/ OPS+115

That's pretty good. There's no reason to complain about his production this year.

Oh yeah, and then there's that "defense" thing. I've heard he's pretty good at that.

dougdirt
06-19-2010, 12:56 PM
Just once, it'd be nice to see him have a day against a guy like we face tonight in Felix Hernandez. Seems like he still looks over matched more often then not. How did he start his big league career on fire

Seriously dude, you need to calm down. Any time Jay doesn't go 2-4 with a HR, this thread gets bumped by you because he hasn't gone 9-9 and you are disappointed.

REDblooded
06-19-2010, 01:39 PM
I wish all of the Reds players were as terrible as Bruce...

OnBaseMachine
06-22-2010, 01:15 PM
From Fangraphs - Jay Bruce Showing Improvement Against Lefties

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/jay-bruce-showing-improvement-against-lefties/

Spring~Fields
06-23-2010, 06:47 PM
Jay Bruce 3 for 3 today with a walk, nice job Jay.

Ron Madden
06-24-2010, 03:35 AM
Jay Bruce 3 for 3 today with a walk, nice job Jay.

Jay Bruce will be fine. He's still a kid, just put him in the lineup everyday and let him play.

lollipopcurve
06-24-2010, 07:23 AM
Jay Bruce will be fine. He's still a kid, just put him in the lineup everyday and let him play.

It appears the day off helped. Just like last year, when sitting and watching for a couple months helped him figure some things out.

It's pretty obvious when Bruce is swinging poorly. History tells us he can spiral downward, so it makes sense to get him a day off, as Baker says, to clear his head.

traderumor
06-24-2010, 07:51 AM
Just looking at Jay Bruce's numbers today. Being in year 3 at the ML level, it is easy to forget he is only 23, but the trends are certainly going in the right direction. He nearly has as many walks this year as he did each of his first two years, so he is clearly getting more selective at the plate. While I have been concerned about only 9 HRs to date, his power numbers are still very good. He seems to be developing into a hitter that can go the opposite way with authority and I am supposing that one home run binge will get that number closer to expectations (25-30).

RedEye
06-24-2010, 08:49 PM
Just looking at Jay Bruce's numbers today. Being in year 3 at the ML level, it is easy to forget he is only 23, but the trends are certainly going in the right direction. He nearly has as many walks this year as he did each of his first two years, so he is clearly getting more selective at the plate. While I have been concerned about only 9 HRs to date, his power numbers are still very good. He seems to be developing into a hitter that can go the opposite way with authority and I am supposing that one home run binge will get that number closer to expectations (25-30).

Totally agree. As others have pointed out, power is not only about HR. Jay is hitting doubles, triples and HR to all fields, and he's having "professional" at bats nearly every time to the dish. I can't yet say what his ceiling will be, but I'm starting to think that in 2-3 years he's going to be an absolute monster--as many scouts predicted. If not, he'll still be one of the better all-around outfielders in baseball.

The one thing I do worry a bit about is his D as he ages. He doesn't seem to be built like the Camerons and the Vizquels who age and keep their defensive prowess. Sure, his arm is always going to be there, but I doubt he'll keep the range in RF as he reaches his late 20s. Hopefully his bat improves enough to make that a moot point--but I'd be interested to hear what other folks have to say about this. Obviously, my worries could be utterly baseless (as most worries tend to be).

VR
06-24-2010, 10:03 PM
Dusty worked w/ Jay in the cage before his 1st 3 hit game.....I'd love to hear what they worked on .

Degenerate39
06-24-2010, 10:50 PM
Dusty worked w/ Jay in the cage before his 1st 3 hit game.....I'd love to hear what they worked on .

Showed him some VHS tapes of Hank Aaron

11larkin11
06-25-2010, 07:07 PM
Dusty worked w/ Jay in the cage before his 1st 3 hit game.....I'd love to hear what they worked on .

I watched a Tech Talk last year during a rain delay with Dusty showing the art of hitting and small things to look for, with his son Darren demonstrating. It was actually really informative, and I learned more in that half hour than 4 years of high school baseball.

Raisor
06-25-2010, 07:17 PM
Aaron looks like a Christmas Tree

Ghosts of 1990
06-30-2010, 03:21 PM
Game-winner of Roy halladay. Wow.

Blitz Dorsey
06-30-2010, 03:28 PM
Arguably the biggest hit of his career. (And maybe I should remove the word "arguably" from that statement.)

A game-winning HR with your team down a run against the best pitcher in baseball. Yeah, Bruce might remember that one for a while. Should give him a BOATLOAD of confidence moving forward this season as well. We have not even come close to seeing the best that Jay Bruce has to offer.

Ghosts of 1990
06-30-2010, 04:05 PM
Arguably the biggest hit of his career. (And maybe I should remove the word "arguably" from that statement.)

A game-winning HR with your team down a run against the best pitcher in baseball. Yeah, Bruce might remember that one for a while. Should give him a BOATLOAD of confidence moving forward this season as well. We have not even come close to seeing the best that Jay Bruce has to offer.

Well said. I'm really happy for the guy today. As well as the team as a whole. I never thought they had it in them to get 13 hits off Roy Halladay, as well as come out of a 3-0 hole.

RedsManRick
06-30-2010, 04:31 PM
After today's game, Bruce is hitting .281/.355/.473. Not quite Joey Votto territory but still solid middle of the order territory and a very solid step forward.

OnBaseMachine
06-30-2010, 04:35 PM
Video and the radio call of Bruce's huge go ahead 2-run HR.

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=9514137

reds44
06-30-2010, 05:18 PM
Video and the radio call of Bruce's huge go ahead 2-run HR.

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=9514137
LOL what is Cueto doing in the dugout near the end of that video?

Screwball
06-30-2010, 08:02 PM
I never thought they had it in them to get 13 hits off Roy Halladay, as well as come out of a 3-0 hole.

You ain't the only one. 13 hits given up is a career high for Halladay, and before today he was 113-4 (!) when pitching with a 3-run lead. What Jay Bruce and the Reds did today was a minor miracle.

Raisor
06-30-2010, 08:14 PM
After today's game, Bruce is hitting .281/.355/.473. Not quite Joey Votto territory but still solid middle of the order territory and a very solid step forward.


Think of that slash line at the top of the order.

Just sayin.

OnBaseMachine
06-30-2010, 08:21 PM
As good as Bruce's numbers are right now, I think they have a chance to improve in the second half. I think he's due for a home run streak, something like an 8-10 home run month which would really boost his slugging percentage. I could be wrong but I think it's coming.

Ghosts of 1990
06-30-2010, 09:24 PM
I hope Bruce keeps hitting for power, but all things considered he is basically a .300 hitter right now. He has had so so many hits taken away from him this season and still he is over .280 for the year playing against LHP and RHP. What if he could find his way to .300?

Ron Madden
07-01-2010, 04:33 AM
Seems to me like Jay has been trying too hard to hit the ball the opposite way the past few weeks. Nothing wrong with going the other way but I'd rather see him go ahead and crush a pitch that he can pull.

I'd love to see him hit higher in the order. Jay Bruce will produce!!!!!!!!!!

.

REDblooded
07-02-2010, 07:19 PM
If you take out the first 12 games of the season where Bruce struggled mightily...

Here's his line:

.306/.379/.527 10 hr's, 34 rbi, 45 r's, 16 2b's, 4 3b's, 60 k's to 29 bb's...

Ghosts of 1990
07-11-2010, 07:53 PM
In the clubhouse after roughly 9 holes, .266/10 HR/37 RBI. It's a big second half for Bruce. We really need him to step it up. I've heard some say his lack of power is due to his bat being slow. I don't know how I feel about him right now. Bruce is a confusing case. He has 20 doubles and 4 triples. That is indicative of power numbers on the rise. I physically saw about 12-15 balls that should have been home runs just missed. I don't really know where our young right fielder stands. But I have also heard some people who write about baseball outside of Cincinnati say they have him pegged for a monster 2nd half, FWIW. I hope they're right.

VR
07-11-2010, 08:35 PM
In the clubhouse after roughly 9 holes, .266/10 HR/37 RBI. It's a big second half for Bruce. We really need him to step it up. I've heard some say his lack of power is due to his bat being slow. I don't know how I feel about him right now. Bruce is a confusing case. He has 20 doubles and 4 triples. That is indicative of power numbers on the rise. I physically saw about 12-15 balls that should have been home runs just missed. I don't really know where our young right fielder stands. But I have also heard some people who write about baseball outside of Cincinnati say they have him pegged for a monster 2nd half, FWIW. I hope they're right.

He's due, that's for sure. His splits relative to the bases loaded, man on 3rd,
2nd & 3rd are just flat our horrendous. K rate way up, little or no production.

I've said it for awhile.....I think Jay Bruce to the 2 hole is as good as punching the Reds playoff ticket. Put him in a spot where he isn't pressured to be the rbi guy...where he'll see good pitches, and let him get his eye and his stroke back.

If he has a mirror of the first half, however, he's still a stud......as his range and arm are nothing short of spectacular out in right field.

mdccclxix
07-11-2010, 08:48 PM
I noticed this today: 10 HR, all to Right Field. I think his next step in development is doing more with pitches he knows will be outside by sending them to Left Field.

alloverjr
07-11-2010, 08:49 PM
I've said it for awhile.....I think Jay Bruce to the 2 hole is as good as punching the Reds playoff ticket. Put him in a spot where he isn't pressured to be the rbi guy...where he'll see good pitches, and let him get his eye and his stroke back.



I've seen this mentioned a number of times here and I have privately said the same (off this board). But there has to be some reason why it hasn't happened. The Reds have had OB challenged guys at 1-2 all year regardless of the combo (although Phillips has done a better job). It's not like the need to look hasn't been there. Is it because he's a corner OF and they don't hit there? Not patient enough? Doesn't "handle the bat" well? K's too much? They obviously have a reason whether RZ thinks is sound logic or not. I can't say I've ever heard Dusty asked this question (no surprise from Cincy media). Do we feel that we're all smarter than Reds' management? ;)

jojo
07-11-2010, 08:56 PM
IMHO, like the Reds season, Bruce's first half has been an unmitigated success..

He's tracking to be a 3-4 WAR player as a 23 year old. That's cool beans.

Cedric
07-11-2010, 09:33 PM
The guy kills off speed stuff. With guys on base he can't handle the heat.

Very long swing. One of the longest I have seen in awhile.

Ghosts of 1990
07-11-2010, 10:41 PM
IMHO, like the Reds season, Bruce's first half has been an unmitigated success..

He's tracking to be a 3-4 WAR player as a 23 year old. That's cool beans.

What is WAR explained?

jojo
07-11-2010, 11:40 PM
What is WAR explained?

Wins above replacement.....

TheNext44
07-12-2010, 12:03 AM
What is WAR explained?

Further explained, it's based on how many runs a player produces for his team, based on his advanced stats, both offensive and defensive (not runs scored and RBI). Around 10 runs is worth a win.

So if Bruce is a 4 win player, that means he's projected to produce with his offense and defense, 40 more runs that a replacement level RF.

2-3 wins is around league average, so 4 wins if really good, definitely above average.

Ghosts of 1990
07-12-2010, 12:07 AM
Further explained, it's based on how many runs a player produces for his team, based on his advanced stats, both offensive and defensive (not runs scored and RBI). Around 10 runs is worth a win.

So if Bruce is a 4 win player, that means he's projected to produce with his offense and defense, 40 more runs that a replacement level RF.

2-3 wins is around league average, so 4 wins if really good, definitely above average.

What a stat.... I love baseball

Ron Madden
07-12-2010, 03:06 AM
In the clubhouse after roughly 9 holes, .266/10 HR/37 RBI. It's a big second half for Bruce. We really need him to step it up. I've heard some say his lack of power is due to his bat being slow. I don't know how I feel about him right now. Bruce is a confusing case. He has 20 doubles and 4 triples. That is indicative of power numbers on the rise. I physically saw about 12-15 balls that should have been home runs just missed. I don't really know where our young right fielder stands. But I have also heard some people who write about baseball outside of Cincinnati say they have him pegged for a monster 2nd half, FWIW. I hope they're right.


Bruce will be fine. Jay has the third most XBH's of anyone on the club.

1. Votto 39
2. Phillips 38
3. Bruce 34

Not bad for a kid who is exactly five days older than Yonder Alonso.

;)

bucksfan2
07-12-2010, 08:46 AM
He's due, that's for sure. His splits relative to the bases loaded, man on 3rd,
2nd & 3rd are just flat our horrendous. K rate way up, little or no production.

I've said it for awhile.....I think Jay Bruce to the 2 hole is as good as punching the Reds playoff ticket. Put him in a spot where he isn't pressured to be the rbi guy...where he'll see good pitches, and let him get his eye and his stroke back.

If he has a mirror of the first half, however, he's still a stud......as his range and arm are nothing short of spectacular out in right field.

I don't know what his issue is. When he gets into a RSIP situation he is completely dominated at the plate. I don't know if he is pressing to much or has a swing flaw exposed in those situations. I have a feeling that if Jay doesn't start producing in those situations it could spell trouble for the Reds.

As for the 2 hole I am starting to agree more and more with that.

OnBaseMachine
07-15-2010, 01:23 PM
Jay Bruce has the 25th most trade value in all of baseball according to Fangraphs:


#25 – Jay Bruce, OF, Cincinnati

The young outfielder for the Reds possesses all the abilities to be a true superstar, and a breakout year is coming, likely sooner than later. One of the best power and speed players in the game, Bruce will be a middle of the order hitter with defensive value, making him a rare specimen. He still has some growing to do before he gets there, but he’s already a quality player and has barely scratched the surface of what he could be. The Reds having him under team control through 2014 only enhances his value.


http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2010-trade-value-25-21/

jojo
07-15-2010, 03:53 PM
Jay Bruce has the 25th most trade value in all of baseball according to Fangraphs:



http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2010-trade-value-25-21/

And yet Tokyo acts as if all is well.... The monster is coming-its just a small matter of exactly when....

Ghosts of 1990
07-15-2010, 07:53 PM
I'd be overjoyed with .270/25/80 out of Jay this year. I'm just not wanting to see .250/17/60 because then you have to wonder what you really have in someone.

nate
07-15-2010, 07:57 PM
I'd be overjoyed with .270/25/80 out of Jay this year. I'm just not wanting to see .250/17/60 because then you have to wonder what you really have in someone.

Why?

Ghosts of 1990
07-16-2010, 11:14 AM
Why?

Would you be happy with .250/17/60 out of Bruce for a full season?

Besides from the ramifications it would have on the team as a whole.... I think those final numbers are an exhibit of someone many scouts had over-projected to be a star.

It hasn't happened yet so no reason to really worry until it does, was just making a comparison of where I hope to see him at (reasonable numbers I feel) versus where he might actually end up.

nate
07-16-2010, 11:31 AM
Would you be happy with .250/17/60 out of Bruce for a full season?

Maybe. But that leaves several questions unanswered for me.

How often did he get on base? What has his slugging percentage? How was his defense?

I mean, if the rest of that line is .350/.475 with a ton of doubles and great defense, I'd be as pleased as Chip at a "meet Javy Valentin" convention.

:cool:


Besides from the ramifications it would have on the team as a whole.... I think those final numbers are an exhibit of someone many scouts had over-projected to be a star.

This might just be me but ever since Public Enemy told me "Don't Believe the Hype," I haven't and am a better person because of it.


It hasn't happened yet so no reason to really worry until it does, was just making a comparison of where I hope to see him at (reasonable numbers I feel) versus where he might actually end up.

He's already amongst the most valuable players on the team. I'd rank that as being "totally awesome," myself.

membengal
07-16-2010, 11:32 AM
When I was in high school, I had this friend whose girlfriend was extremely good looking. Some would say, "smoking". It was weird though, he was constantly seeking reassurance from his friends that she was really as hot as she actually was. He was constantly ascribing physical flaws to her that she either didn't have or that didn't matter, really.

It was weird.

Just a random thought.

Nasty_Boy
07-16-2010, 11:34 AM
Would you be happy with .250/17/60 out of Bruce for a full season?

Besides from the ramifications it would have on the team as a whole.... I think those final numbers are an exhibit of someone many scouts had over-projected to be a star.

It hasn't happened yet so no reason to really worry until it does, was just making a comparison of where I hope to see him at (reasonable numbers I feel) versus where he might actually end up.

Easy Chicken Little... The star projections may be a little premature, but I can't help but remind you of his age. He's been an 800+ OPS guy for most of the season, and that's with a few prolonged slumps. I see improvement and flashes out the talent that had projected to be the next Larry Walker, but in no way am I disappointed or overly concerned yet. He did struggle to drive in runners from 3rd and didn't quite have the HR total that was expect, but it seemed to me that he was pressing in those situations and not totally comfortable. He's still the youngest guy in the starting lineup and I can't help but think that he's going to figure himself out on a daily basis and become the middle of the order hitter we want him to be... It might also help to get him outta the 6 hole and give the guy a little protection.

Ghosts of 1990
07-16-2010, 11:39 AM
When I was in high school, I had this friend whose girlfriend was extremely good looking. Some would say, "smoking". It was weird though, he was constantly seeking reassurance from his friends that she was really as hot as she actually was. He was constantly ascribing physical flaws to her that she either didn't have or that didn't matter, really.

It was weird.

Just a random thought.

Hahahahahaha

Sometimes I wish we had a "nominate for post of the day/week" feature! I catch your drift Bengal.

RedsManRick
07-16-2010, 12:30 PM
Would you be happy with .250/17/60 out of Bruce for a full season?

Besides from the ramifications it would have on the team as a whole.... I think those final numbers are an exhibit of someone many scouts had over-projected to be a star.

It hasn't happened yet so no reason to really worry until it does, was just making a comparison of where I hope to see him at (reasonable numbers I feel) versus where he might actually end up.

I understand your point, but your choice of benchmarks is weird. Why be so focused on AVG, HR, and RBI? Sure, those are indicators of performance, but not very good ones.

If he hit .250/.400/.500, but nobody was on base for him and he just hit a ton of doubles and only 17 HR would you be disappointed?

Personally, I just want to see him continue to improve his skills. Let's see him strike out less, make more contact, work more walks, and hit for power. Worrying over things that are highly variable or somewhat out of his control is just focusing on the wrong thing.

bucksfan2
07-16-2010, 01:30 PM
I understand your point, but your choice of benchmarks is weird. Why be so focused on AVG, HR, and RBI? Sure, those are indicators of performance, but not very good ones.

If he hit .250/.400/.500, but nobody was on base for him and he just hit a ton of doubles and only 17 HR would you be disappointed?

Personally, I just want to see him continue to improve his skills. Let's see him strike out less, make more contact, work more walks, and hit for power. Worrying over things that are highly variable or somewhat out of his control is just focusing on the wrong thing.

Highly variable things are very important to the success of the team overall. To say that it doesn't matter that Bruce has been awful with RISP is ignoring an important facet in the overall scheme of things. So yes right now his low RBI total and his poor hitting with RISP is disappointing to me. To me it suggest that he needs to move into the 2 hole more than anything else.

Overall his season has been pretty good considering that he is one of the top two or three defensive RF in baseball.

jojo
07-16-2010, 01:36 PM
Highly variable things are very important to the success of the team overall. To say that it doesn't matter that Bruce has been awful with RISP is ignoring an important facet in the overall scheme of things. So yes right now his low RBI total and his poor hitting with RISP is disappointing to me. To me it suggest that he needs to move into the 2 hole more than anything else.

Overall his season has been pretty good considering that he is one of the top two or three defensive RF in baseball.

In order to make that argument, one has to assume that Bruce's performance with RISP is representative of his true skill (or lack of an ability to hit in such situations).

Monitor his next 100 PAs w/RISP and I bet it won't be the same.

His RISP split really isn't something that should be given a great deal of credence.

RedsManRick
07-16-2010, 02:22 PM
Highly variable things are very important to the success of the team overall. To say that it doesn't matter that Bruce has been awful with RISP is ignoring an important facet in the overall scheme of things. So yes right now his low RBI total and his poor hitting with RISP is disappointing to me. To me it suggest that he needs to move into the 2 hole more than anything else.

Overall his season has been pretty good considering that he is one of the top two or three defensive RF in baseball.

It's one thing to be disappointed if he doesn't contribute as much to this season as we had hoped he would. If we're only talking about performance figures in the context of this season, then I too am disappointed by his RBI conversion rate.

But my understanding of the comments in this thread and of the original post to which I responded was that we were talking primarily about his development as a player. If that is the case, then AVG/HR/RBI aren't very good indicators of his skill development. It is the continued development of his skills that will drive RBI in future years. In general, good hitters drive in runs -- so I'm more worried about his overall offensive maturation.

bucksfan2
07-16-2010, 02:46 PM
It's one thing to be disappointed if he doesn't contribute as much to this season as we had hoped he would. If we're only talking about performance figures in the context of this season, then I too am disappointed by his RBI conversion rate.

But my understanding of the comments in this thread and of the original post to which I responded was that we were talking primarily about his development as a player. If that is the case, then AVG/HR/RBI aren't very good indicators of his skill development. It is the continued development of his skills that will drive RBI in future years. In general, good hitters drive in runs -- so I'm more worried about his overall offensive maturation.

I agree. Looking at just AVG/HR/RBI is a poor way to judge Bruce's season. But at the same time I think you also have to take into context where Bruce is hitting and who is hitting in front him. The reality is he should have more RBI's because guys like Votto and Rolen are hitting in front of him. I think there was a time where Dusty was flipping Bruce and Gomes depending on the handedness of the pitcher.

I think often times we forget how young Jay is. He has had some unrealistic expectations placed upon him because of him being the #1 prospect in all of baseball. Unfortunately that is the reality of playing in a small market, young players are expected to come up and contribute when they are still developing.

lollipopcurve
07-16-2010, 03:00 PM
I think it's obvious he's not making the progress we hoped for.

Age 21: .767 OPS
Age 22: .773 OPS
Age 23 (so far): 785 OPS

He's treading water. We've seen flashes of what he could become, but he's been unable to sustain it.

By comparison....

HRamirez
Age 22: .833
Age 23: .948

Andrew McCutchen
Age 22: .836
Age 23 (so far): .798

Colby Rasmus
Age 22: .714
Age 23 (so far): .917

Keep in mind that Bruce plays in one of the best hitters parks around.

Bruce was considered the best hitting prospect in baseball a few years ago. He came to the majors having shredded through the minors. But it hasn't translated within any semblance of consistency. Hopefully he can stay relaxed, see pitches and let the game come to him. I don't think he can make his breakthrough happen any other way.

OnBaseMachine
07-16-2010, 03:08 PM
I think it's obvious he's not making the progress we hoped for.

Age 21: .767 OPS
Age 22: .773 OPS
Age 23 (so far): 785 OPS


Bruce's OPS+ over the last three years:

Age 21: 97 OPS+
Age 22: 100 OPS+
Age 23: 108 OPS+

Plus Bruce has been in a slump lately. Just two weeks ago his OPS was .832. He's had some rough stretches this season and then followed them up with a hot streak. My guess is he'll go another hot streak here soon and his OPS will be up around .825 by the end of July.

lollipopcurve
07-16-2010, 03:14 PM
Age 21: 97 OPS+
Age 22: 100 OPS+
Age 23: 108 OPS+

Plus Bruce has been in a slump lately. Just two weeks ago his OPS was .832. He's had some rough stretches this season and then followed them up with a hot streak. My guess is he'll go another hot streak here soon and his OPS will be up around .825 by the end of July.

I hope you're right. But the fact remains that he has not had a breakthrough. If he's making progress, it's slow. He has lacked the consistency that great hitters show. Other comparably aged hitters who were highly rated coming out of the minors have outperformed him -- that's just a fact, not an insult.

If Bruce is to be a truly great hitter, it's going to show in him a bit later than it tends to in other great ones.

RedsManRick
07-16-2010, 03:45 PM
I would argue that OPS hides some of the progress Jay has made. We all know that OBP matters more than SLG. While his OPS hasn't changed much, its composition has. wOBA helps us see this:

2008: .328
2009: .329
2010: .342

The biggest "problem" with his 2010, and this shows up in his RBI, is his decrease in power. If you think a 23 year is going to see a real decrease in his ability to hit for power, raise your hand.

I don't think Jay has taken a big step forward in 2010 vs. 2009. I think he's made an adjustment that has led to a bit less power and a bit more OBP. In the long run, the OBP is indicative of a solid approach, a strong base of skills. As he grows comfortable in his approach, the power will return/grow.

lollipopcurve
07-16-2010, 03:47 PM
I don't think Jay has taken a big step forward in 2010 vs. 2009. I think he's made an adjustment that has led to a bit less power and a bit more OBP. In the long run, the OBP is indicative of a solid approach, a strong base of skills. As he grows comfortable in his approach, the power will return/grow.

I would agree. As reflected in the closing of my first post on the subject:


Hopefully he can stay relaxed, see pitches and let the game come to him. I don't think he can make his breakthrough happen any other way.

SirFelixCat
07-23-2010, 10:01 PM
Ok, it's time to seriously discuss Bruce as not the all-world stud we all thought he was going to be. In almost every important stat (offensively) there has been little-to-no progression from last year. Yes, he plays stellar defense (usually, tonight's gaffe notwithstanding), but his offensive game is becoming, well, offensive. It's not due to injury, so that's not it.

So is it time to consider him sitting in favor or Heisey or ???

guttle11
07-23-2010, 10:04 PM
Bruce will be the stud he was supposed to be as soon as he trusts his own strength, shortens the swing and takes the outer half pitch the other way consistently. His swing is too long with too many moving parts. He's not John Daly...he needs to be fundamentally sound.

dougdirt
07-23-2010, 10:06 PM
He will be fine. He is 23.

Mario-Rijo
07-23-2010, 10:07 PM
Ok, it's time to seriously discuss Bruce as not the all-world stud we all thought he was going to be. In almost every important stat (offensively) there has been little-to-no progression from last year. Yes, he plays stellar defense (usually, tonight's gaffe notwithstanding), but his offensive game is becoming, well, offensive. It's not due to injury, so that's not it.

So is it time to consider him sitting in favor or Heisey or ???

No. He's hitting 50 points higher than last season and that is due to improvements he has made altering his fortunes when a ball is put in play, I.E. he isn't jumping at the ball as dramatically or as often but he is still doing it some. That doesn't explain it all but he is both willing and able to continue to improve so why not have patience with him, it's not as if he is also having issues in the field or on the base paths.

edabbs44
07-23-2010, 10:13 PM
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/youngde03.shtml

oregonred
07-23-2010, 10:23 PM
Bruce!!!!!!!

Homer Bailey
07-23-2010, 10:23 PM
I'm convinced that Reds fans will always find a way to criticize their above average players.

jojo
07-23-2010, 10:27 PM
Ok, it's time to seriously discuss Bruce as not the all-world stud we all thought he was going to be. In almost every important stat (offensively) there has been little-to-no progression from last year. Yes, he plays stellar defense (usually, tonight's gaffe notwithstanding), but his offensive game is becoming, well, offensive. It's not due to injury, so that's not it.

So is it time to consider him sitting in favor or Heisey or ???

If he's not good enough for Cincinnati, it's time to trade him to Seattle.

westofyou
07-23-2010, 10:53 PM
Since 1969 the Reds have had 12 players who have had 450 PA's in a season age 23 and under, Bruce is one of them already, is he already a target?

If so that's sad, the game is hard and young guys just don't get up to MLB at that age unless they are good.




CINCINNATI REDS
SEASON
1969-2009
AGE <= 23
AGE displayed only--not a sorting criteria

OPS YEAR DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE AGE
1 Bernie Carbo 1970 .257 1.004 .748 22
2 Johnny Bench 1970 .184 .932 .748 22
3 Johnny Bench 1969 .126 .840 .714 21
4 Bobby Tolan 1969 .106 .821 .714 23
5 Adam Dunn 2002 .091 .854 .763 22
6 Adam Dunn 2003 .047 .819 .771 23
7 Edwin Encarnacion 2006 .046 .831 .785 23
8 Dan Driessen 1974 .033 .747 .714 22
9 Johnny Bench 1971 .016 .722 .706 23
10 Jay Bruce 2008 .001 .767 .765 21
11 Barry Larkin 1987 -.080 .678 .758 23
12 Paul Householder 1982 -.123 .592 .715 23


Bruce is no Householder, nor EE. If he has a career as good as Driessen's many would be bummed, not me, but look at the comps, Carbo (drugs) Tolan (injuries and attitude) Bruce looks good in comparison... he's only 23 for gosh sakes

Brutus
07-23-2010, 10:56 PM
I'm convinced that Reds fans will always find a way to criticize their above average players.

He is a career .767 hitter. Good, but right about average. With his defense, I will definitely live with his learning curve considering his age and not bat an eye.

But anyone being intellectually honest would have to admit that when Bruce broke in a few years ago, .767 is not the visions of grandeur they had for him. If he is a .767 hitter the rest of his career, he'll be a solid Major League baseball player. But we wouldn't be having all these conversations if that's what we expected out of him or if that were the kind of talent he has.

I don't think it's too much of a 'criticism' to hope for more and wonder why it seems he keeps taking steps forward then two steps back.

Let me iterate that I believe Bruce will blossom into a star. And he is, after all, only 23. I'm not going to spend much time knocking him because I think in 2-3 years he's going to be really, very good. But I also think he's had enough time in the majors now to start at least wondering...

Homer Bailey
07-23-2010, 10:59 PM
He is a career .767 hitter. Good, but right about average. With his defense, I will definitely live with his learning curve considering his age and not bat an eye.

But anyone being intellectually honest would have to admit that when Bruce broke in a few years ago, .767 is not the visions of grandeur they had for him. If he is a .767 hitter the rest of his career, he'll be a solid Major League baseball player. But we wouldn't be having all these conversations if that's what we expected out of him or if that were the kind of talent he has.

I don't think it's too much of a 'criticism' to hope for more and wonder why it seems he keeps taking steps forward then two steps back.

Let me iterate that I believe Bruce will blossom into a star. And he is, after all, only 23. I'm not going to spend much time knocking him because I think in 2-3 years he's going to be really, very good. But I also think he's had enough time in the majors now to start at least wondering...

I'm not a huge WAR fan, but on pace to be about a 3 WAR player this year at the age of 23, and playing nowhere near his ceiling. I'd call that above average.

savafan
07-23-2010, 11:00 PM
Before I choose the 800 pound gorilla, I want to know what his UZR is.

edabbs44
07-23-2010, 11:00 PM
And even sadder than this will be if Cincy does not make the playoffs this year, this season will be viewed by many as a failure and if only Player X played more or if Walt had gotten Player Y this team would have been in the WS.

Letting Bruce play and gain experience can only help him and this organization.

oregonred
07-23-2010, 11:01 PM
The Reds should have an opportunity in the winter to lock Bruce up for a couple of his first FA years which is what they need to negotiate in the offseason. If he posts a .770 OPS over this season then that may present an opportunity.

Bruce will break out offensively, here's hoping it doesn't take until year 5 of his control tenure without a couple of his FA years bought out.

Brutus
07-23-2010, 11:06 PM
I'm not a huge WAR fan, but on pace to be about a 3 WAR player this year at the age of 23, and playing nowhere near his ceiling. I'd call that above average.

But the issue isn't about his defense. We all know what his defensive value is (though we would have debates until we're blue in the face about quantifying it LOL).

This issue is simply his maturation (or debated lack thereof) as a hitter in a vacuum. Many would argue (and rationally so) that we can't simply separate his hitting ability without considering what else he brings to the table. However, it's still not a matter of the overall player he is but what he'll do with the bat. I think it's still fair to wonder, question, analyze, etc.

His defense is what it is. But if he never advances offensively, he'll continue to be a 3 WAR player. And again, that's a solid Major League player that will hold a job several years. But that's certainly not Hall of Fame material. That's not MVP material. And that's bordering on being short of All-star material. Baseball is not an easy sport, and there's no shame in being a 3-win player (heck, I'd love to have a lineup full of them). But there's also no shame as a fan of the sport hoping for promising young players to reach their potential--and Bruce's potential far exceeds that of a 3-win player.

reds44
07-23-2010, 11:10 PM
He's an above average major league baseball player as a 23 year old.

Homer Bailey
07-23-2010, 11:22 PM
But the issue isn't about his defense. We all know what his defensive value is (though we would have debates until we're blue in the face about quantifying it LOL).

This issue is simply his maturation (or debated lack thereof) as a hitter in a vacuum. Many would argue (and rationally so) that we can't simply separate his hitting ability without considering what else he brings to the table. However, it's still not a matter of the overall player he is but what he'll do with the bat. I think it's still fair to wonder, question, analyze, etc.

His defense is what it is. But if he never advances offensively, he'll continue to be a 3 WAR player. And again, that's a solid Major League player that will hold a job several years. But that's certainly not Hall of Fame material. That's not MVP material. And that's bordering on being short of All-star material. Baseball is not an easy sport, and there's no shame in being a 3-win player (heck, I'd love to have a lineup full of them). But there's also no shame as a fan of the sport hoping for promising young players to reach their potential--and Bruce's potential far exceeds that of a 3-win player.

I agree with most of what you're saying. I just don't think its fair to hold a player to the standards of what we think he should be. He is what he is. It's not his fault that other people thought he would be more.

And I still have faith that he is going to turn a corner, for the record. It may not be this year, but he is still 23!

savafan
07-23-2010, 11:40 PM
Similar Batters through age 22
View Player Links in Pop-up
Compare Stats to Similars

1. Barry Bonds (965)
2. Wily Mo Pena (965)
3. Tom Brunansky (961)
4. Reggie Jackson (958) *
5. Pete Incaviglia (956)
6. Jeff Burroughs (952)
7. Willie Horton (952)
8. Curt Blefary (950)
9. Ruppert Jones (948)
10. Adam Dunn (947)


Pretty good company.

Brutus
07-23-2010, 11:48 PM
Similar Batters through age 22
View Player Links in Pop-up
Compare Stats to Similars

1. Barry Bonds (965)
2. Wily Mo Pena (965)
3. Tom Brunansky (961)
4. Reggie Jackson (958) *
5. Pete Incaviglia (956)
6. Jeff Burroughs (952)
7. Willie Horton (952)
8. Curt Blefary (950)
9. Ruppert Jones (948)
10. Adam Dunn (947)


Pretty good company.

Never thought I'd see Wily Mo Pena sharing a similarity score with Barry Bonds.

kaldaniels
07-23-2010, 11:50 PM
Never thought I'd see Wily Mo Pena sharing a similarity score with Barry Bonds.

The only name that seems to be missing on that list is Rob Deer (started his career at 24). That is quite a group.

WVRedsFan
07-24-2010, 12:04 AM
He will be fine. He is 23.I normally bristle at the age argument, but in this case it is true. He needs great coaching to shorten his swing, go the other way and handle lefties. As much as he frustrates me at times, other times I look at his statistics and wonder who could do better. I have been in favor of giving him a break against lefties for a few games and playing Heisey. I know the problems that might cause, but it seems like it might give him a break from pitchers he has big problems with. I think the kid is very frustrated right now. We (the fans) have put so much pressure on him to be "all-world" for the last three years and at times I think he is pressing. He will mature and do well for the Reds. He might not be the second coming of Junior Griffey, but he will be an adequate right fielder for years to come if handled correctly. I hope he comes through in the future. The Reds need that badly.

fearofpopvol1
07-24-2010, 01:05 AM
Do we really need another thread about Bruce?

11larkin11
07-24-2010, 01:16 AM
Do we really need another thread about Bruce?

Sure, want me to start it?

Ghosts of 1990
07-24-2010, 01:17 AM
I miss the power numbers. Makes little sense, seeing as how he hit 5 last year in a month after the wrist injury.

Caveat Emperor
07-24-2010, 02:22 AM
Do we really need another thread about Bruce?

Probably not.

Bruce has been thoroughly mediocre this year -- no one really disagrees with that. The only difference of opinion is whether or not he'll be better than that in the future.

Too bad the Reds are burning up pre-arb years trying to find the answer to that question.

Ron Madden
07-24-2010, 02:59 AM
He will be fine. He is 23.

Thank You.

Ron Madden
07-24-2010, 03:19 AM
I normally bristle at the age argument, but in this case it is true. He needs great coaching to shorten his swing, go the other way and handle lefties. As much as he frustrates me at times, other times I look at his statistics and wonder who could do better. I have been in favor of giving him a break against lefties for a few games and playing Heisey. I know the problems that might cause, but it seems like it might give him a break from pitchers he has big problems with. I think the kid is very frustrated right now. We (the fans) have put so much pressure on him to be "all-world" for the last three years and at times I think he is pressing. He will mature and do well for the Reds. He might not be the second coming of Junior Griffey, but he will be an adequate right fielder for years to come if handled correctly. I hope he comes through in the future. The Reds need that badly.


The kid is only 23 years old. Has he had problems vs LH pitching? Yes.

The only way he can improve is by facing LH pitchers.

Has he been the Supper Star he was projected by many to be? Not yet.

I honestly believe Jay Bruce can be one of the most productive players in Cincinnati Reds history.

I believe the only way that can happen is to to play him everyday.

AtomicDumpling
07-24-2010, 03:48 AM
He will be fine. He is 23.

:thumbup:

Joey Votto was still in the minor leagues at this age. Votto didn't even get his September cup of coffee until he was 24, and we all know how he turned out.

Jay Bruce is still early in his development as are all baseball players at age 23.

There are not many freaks like Junior Griffey or Miguel Cabrera that can play at an All Star level in their low 20's.

jojo
07-24-2010, 07:09 AM
Bruce is having a horrible July. Coming into the month he had a wOBA=.360 (mlb average=.330) and a UZR=3.0 (neutral= 0).

Over 600 PAs that's a 3.5 to 4 WAR player... I think it would've been pretty hard for anyone to criticize that or suggest he should be in Louisville.

If roughly a month's worth of PAs can dramatically change the ceiling/opinion about a player, then really the problem is more related to whiplash than than the player.

Bruce is in rightfield because he's a legitimate major league corner outfielder and he has zero to learn from destroying the Maloneys of AAA.

GAC
07-24-2010, 07:22 AM
Since 1969 the Reds have had 12 players who have had 450 PA's in a season age 23 and under, Bruce is one of them already, is he already a target?

If so that's sad, the game is hard and young guys just don't get up to MLB at that age unless they are good.




CINCINNATI REDS
SEASON
1969-2009
AGE <= 23
AGE displayed only--not a sorting criteria

OPS YEAR DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE AGE
1 Bernie Carbo 1970 .257 1.004 .748 22
2 Johnny Bench 1970 .184 .932 .748 22
3 Johnny Bench 1969 .126 .840 .714 21
4 Bobby Tolan 1969 .106 .821 .714 23
5 Adam Dunn 2002 .091 .854 .763 22
6 Adam Dunn 2003 .047 .819 .771 23
7 Edwin Encarnacion 2006 .046 .831 .785 23
8 Dan Driessen 1974 .033 .747 .714 22
9 Johnny Bench 1971 .016 .722 .706 23
10 Jay Bruce 2008 .001 .767 .765 21
11 Barry Larkin 1987 -.080 .678 .758 23
12 Paul Householder 1982 -.123 .592 .715 23


Bruce is no Householder, nor EE. If he has a career as good as Driessen's many would be bummed, not me, but look at the comps, Carbo (drugs) Tolan (injuries and attitude) Bruce looks good in comparison... he's only 23 for gosh sakes

Good post woy. I would like to know what kind of numbers (performance) those who criticize Bruce, or any other 23 yr old prospect, expect?

This next question is right up your alley woy; but from a historical perspective, how many ballplayers have come up at that age (or under) and excelled? Off the top of my head I can come up with several current players, like Pujols, Vlad, Arod, Jeter; but I don't think it's the "norm" is it?

Baseball's `Late-Bloomers' - players whose play improves as they get older

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0FCI/is_6_60/ai_74090332/?tag=content;col1

RFS62
07-24-2010, 08:42 AM
He's 23 years old guys.

Raisor
07-24-2010, 08:58 AM
He's 23 years old guys.

you've got socks older then that.

jojo
07-24-2010, 09:00 AM
you've got socks older then that.

You had a couple Nobel prizes by then too didn't ya? :cool:

Falls City Beer
07-24-2010, 09:08 AM
He was brought up to the majors a season too early. He'll probably be very good, but it might not be in a Reds' uniform.

UKFlounder
07-24-2010, 10:37 AM
I think people are missing this point - he was doing fairly well for most of the season until recent weeks. His power was down, but his ability to get onbase was significantly improved this year, after a horrible 1st 10 games or so.

Obviously his current slump has hurt his numbers, but to say he had shown no improvement at all this year is a bit over the top. If the current slump continue longer, concern will be more warranted, but this same argument was made in the first 2 weeks of the season, and then he went on to play much better for a couple of months.

Is he perhaps just a streaky player?



Bruce is having a horrible July. Coming into the month he had a wOBA=.360 (mlb average=.330) and a UZR=3.0 (neutral= 0).

Over 600 PAs that's a 3.5 to 4 WAR player... I think it would've been pretty hard for anyone to criticize that or suggest he should be in Louisville.

If roughly a month's worth of PAs can dramatically change the ceiling/opinion about a player, then really the problem is more related to whiplash than than the player.

Bruce is in rightfield because he's a legitimate major league corner outfielder and he has zero to learn from destroying the Maloneys of AAA.

nate
07-24-2010, 10:39 AM
I'm always suspicious of guys with two first names.

:cool:

Ghosts of 1990
07-24-2010, 10:45 AM
So what reasons do we have to explore why the power is down so drastically. He's not even going to hit 20 home runs this year and in past years he was able to do it in around less than half a season.

Ghosts of 1990
07-24-2010, 10:46 AM
Obviously his current slump has hurt his numbers, but to say he had shown no improvement at all this year is a bit over the top. If the current slump continue longer, concern will be more warranted

FWIW in his last four games he has 6 hits, 2-multi hit games, and 2 doubles.

nate
07-24-2010, 10:53 AM
I'm happier to see this trend slightly up:

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/9892_OF_season_full_8_20100723.png

Than this trend down:

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/9892_OF_season_full_2_20100723.png

That's without mentioning the great defense.

He's fine. He's 23. Let him keep playing.

Falls City Beer
07-24-2010, 10:53 AM
So what reasons do we have to explore why the power is down so drastically. He's not even going to hit 20 home runs this year and in past years he was able to do it in around less than half a season.

He's streaky. And 23. And still has to lay off off-speed stuff down and away.

Ghosts of 1990
07-24-2010, 11:00 AM
He's streaky. And 23. And still has to lay off off-speed stuff down and away.

So I take it you're saying the reason his power is gone is because he cannot handle the outside pitch? If that is what you mean, I've been thinking a little bit about when he came up he seemed to have power to all fields.

I remember seeing several home runs his rookie year and the beginning of last year to left field and center field. Now, all straight away right field pull shots.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/event_hr.cgi?n1=bruceja01&t=b

REDblooded
07-24-2010, 11:13 AM
See Bruce's age. See Delmon Young last season. See Delmon Young this season. Stop stressing. He's still young...

Brutus
07-24-2010, 11:14 AM
So I take it you're saying the reason his power is gone is because he cannot handle the outside pitch? If that is what you mean, I've been thinking a little bit about when he came up he seemed to have power to all fields.

I remember seeing several home runs his rookie year and the beginning of last year to left field and center field. Now, all straight away right field pull shots.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/event_hr.cgi?n1=bruceja01&t=b

In the past two seasons, he has like a total of four homers to left field. He simply doesn't hit many at all.

Scrap Irony
07-24-2010, 11:26 AM
His swing is long and he has trouble recognizing and laying off low and away off-speed stuff.

That's two pretty major holes right there.

He has time to get better and the Reds have no one to replace him with.

REDblooded
07-24-2010, 01:07 PM
See Bruce's age. See Delmon Young last season. See Delmon Young this season. Stop stressing. He's still young...

SirFelixCat
07-24-2010, 01:20 PM
FWIW, I forget he is only 23. It seems as though he's much older. So, my bad. :shrug:

Mario-Rijo
07-24-2010, 04:06 PM
I have been stating for probably a year or better now that he is jumping at the ball, of course he is managed to fix that quite a bit this season. I can see the adjustment clearly with my eyes in his swing, he's staying back much better. But it's also evidenced by the fact he isn't hitting so many harmless pop ups this season, anyone notice that as well?

He is still a bit jumpy on the front side most times, when he isn't he is slashing lasers all over the place. Just like any young player he starts hitting well and then forgets to relax and stay back and gets a bit pull happy. When this happens he will hit that outside pitch on the ground often, he will pull a lot of foul balls to RF/1st base line and/or will strike out alot on that low and in pitch.

I noticed in that game vs. Strausburg just how effective he can be when he isn't too quick to the ball, 2 laced singles up the middle/right and another laser that was caught all on 98+ MPH fastballs. Why Strausburg kept tossing him fastballs I don't know (great confidence and hard headed youth perhaps) but Bruce didn't have time to get jumpy on the front side the ball was on him and he just naturally responded. He'll be fine the more he settles down at the plate and then he can start to really fine tune things and get his timing and then the loft will return naturally also.

If he isn't the guy we all thought he could be by 25 or 26 I could understand the anxiety but some guys just take longer to get to superstardom. I don't think he'll ever be Larry Walker though but Walker himself didn't "get it" until sometime in his 3rd season and he didn't have the contact issues Bruce has. Up until that 3rd season he had this line at ages 22-23 (though he had fewer PA's overall) .234/.320/.408 for a .728 OPS.

Ghosts of 1990
07-26-2010, 10:38 AM
I pulled these stats best I could from Baseballreference.com

In his last 1075 Abs...He is hitting .236., With an OBP of .306. 139 RBI in almost 300 Games played, averaging about 1 HR every 24 At bats.

nate
07-26-2010, 11:28 AM
I pulled these stats best I could from Baseballreference.com

In his last 1075 Abs...He is hitting .236., With an OBP of .306. 139 RBI in almost 300 Games played, averaging about 1 HR every 24 At bats.

Why his last 1075 ABs when he only has 1114 career ABs? What's insignificant about those first 39 ABs?

kaldaniels
07-26-2010, 11:30 AM
Why his last 1075 ABs when he only has 1114 career ABs? What's insignificant about those first 39 ABs?

Outstanding Nate :beerme:

pahster
07-26-2010, 11:48 AM
Why his last 1075 ABs when he only has 1114 career ABs? What's insignificant about those first 39 ABs?

If you include them, Bruce has been an major league average bat.

Ghosts of 1990
07-26-2010, 11:56 AM
Why his last 1075 ABs when he only has 1114 career ABs? What's insignificant about those first 39 ABs?

This is just me, but I'm looking at 98% of his career that gives you a pretty good idea of the structure you've got after the cement hardens. Not 2% that 39 at-bats represents.

pahster
07-26-2010, 12:01 PM
This is just me, but I'm looking at 98% of his career that gives you a pretty good idea of the structure you've got after the cement hardens. Not 2% that 39 at-bats represents.

Those first 39 AB count too. There's no reason to ignore them; they happened.

nate
07-26-2010, 12:18 PM
This is just me, but I'm looking at 98% of his career that gives you a pretty good idea of the structure you've got after the cement hardens.

His career stats tell me what kind of player he's been up to this point.

Again, why leave out those 39 ABs? What is insignificant about them that warranted leaving them out of your post?


Not 2% that 39 at-bats represents.

I don't understand why his .432/.533/.757 line with 3 HR in his first 37 ABs would be insignificant.

Hoosier Red
07-26-2010, 12:42 PM
Actually they're not insignificant because they are insignificant.

The fact that 39 AB's can so distort the overall numbers shows that the cement hasn't really hardened. If the last 1000 AB's are more instructive to his future, than his numbers from this year(which are much better than those 1000+ AB's) show quite a bit of improvement.

Big Klu
07-26-2010, 12:43 PM
His career stats tell me what kind of player he's been up to this point.

Again, why leave out those 39 ABs? What is insignificant about them that warranted leaving them out of your post?



I don't understand why his .432/.533/.757 line with 3 HR in his first 37 ABs would be insignificant.

Exactly. If he had a hot streak like that in the middle of his career (which he likely has--I haven't bothered to look at the numbers), nobody would think anything of it. But since it happened right out of the gate, some folks want to discount it.

Hoosier Red
07-26-2010, 01:46 PM
I pulled these stats best I could from Baseballreference.com

In his last 1075 Abs...He is hitting .236., With an OBP of .306. 139 RBI in almost 300 Games played, averaging about 1 HR every 24 At bats.

Although I echo everyone else's points about cherry picking, I'll play along. If you want to remove the first 39 AB's than he's shown quite a bit of improvement year to year.

Jay Bruce
(rest of 2008) OPS .701, OBP: .286, 42 RBI, 18 HR
2009 :OPS. 773, OBP: .303, 22 HR, 52 RBI
2010(So Far) : OPS .759, OBP: .329 OBP, 10 HR, 39 RBI.

So essentially he's gone from a complete all or nothing slugger in his first year(if we exclude the first 7 games,) to a more patient, better On-base guy.

Guess which is a better sign for things to come when the guy is 23?

Ghosts of 1990
07-30-2010, 08:47 PM
Uncle!

The organization has to be having a little bit of doubt creep into their minds about whether or not this kid can play or not.

Hasn't homered in a calendar month. The lapse in approach and production at the plate has been mind-boggling. I can't remember seeing too many guys over the last few eras seemingly lose it overnight...... but I think Jay has.

Never in a million years, did I see this coming. We can bend the stats any way that we want; but I think we're seeing a guy who won't realize his potential in the Queen city if ever.

Falls City Beer
07-30-2010, 08:49 PM
but I think we're seeing a guy who won't realize his potential in the Queen city if ever.

I think he'll realize his potential, but yeah, it's probably not going to happen in Cincy.

Ghosts of 1990
07-30-2010, 08:51 PM
Unfortunately looks like a guy who already needs a change of scenery. He'll definitely get 2011 in RF every day; but if we don't see anything different I look for the Reds to move him. And after three years, why would we see anything different.

RedsManRick
07-30-2010, 09:07 PM
Never in a million years, did I see this coming. We can bend the stats any way that we want; but I think we're seeing a guy who won't realize his potential in the Queen city if ever.

I know this has been said multiple times in this thread. But he's 23. He's 3.5 years younger than Joey Votto. Most guys aren't in the majors yet. In fact, at this point in his age 23 season, Votto was still in AAA, yet to make his major league debut.

I share your concern that he's not progressing as quickly as we all had hoped. But progression is rarely a smooth line. Sometimes it's flat for a while and then something clicks. Sometimes there is progression going on between the ears that just hasn't shown up on the field yet. Sometimes the skills are improving but the results aren't showing it because of random variance in batted ball luck.

Further, no sample of a few hundred plate appearances predictive of much of anything. Unless you're looking at taking a way some portion of PA where he truly was at a different skill level (e.g. playing with a significant injury), you don't gain insight by looking at less information.

We know the talent is there. It's impossible to do what he's done in his career without it. Guys like Manny Ramirez, Frank Robinson, Danny Tartabull and Raffy Palmiero aren't on his PECOTA comp list by mistake. Could he be Tom Brunansky, Chili Davis, or Ruben Sierra (also on his comp list)? Sure, it's possible. But we really don't know and it's much, much too early to suggest any confidence one way or the other. All we can do at this point is appreciate the offensive upside, defensive excellence, and give him plenty of opportunity to learn and grow to his full potential.

Ron Madden
07-31-2010, 02:39 AM
I know this has been said multiple times in this thread. But he's 23. He's 3.5 years younger than Joey Votto. Most guys aren't in the majors yet. In fact, at this point in his age 23 season, Votto was still in AAA, yet to make his major league debut.

I share your concern that he's not progressing as quickly as we all had hoped. But progression is rarely a smooth line. Sometimes it's flat for a while and then something clicks. Sometimes there is progression going on between the ears that just hasn't shown up on the field yet. Sometimes the skills are improving but the results aren't showing it because of random variance in batted ball luck.

Further, no sample of a few hundred plate appearances predictive of much of anything. Unless you're looking at taking a way some portion of PA where he truly was at a different skill level (e.g. playing with a significant injury), you don't gain insight by looking at less information.

We know the talent is there. It's impossible to do what he's done in his career without it. Guys like Manny Ramirez, Frank Robinson, Danny Tartabull and Raffy Palmiero aren't on his PECOTA comp list by mistake. Could he be Tom Brunansky, Chili Davis, or Ruben Sierra (also on his comp list)? Sure, it's possible. But we really don't know and it's much, much too early to suggest any confidence one way or the other. All we can do at this point is appreciate the offensive upside, defensive excellence, and give him plenty of opportunity to learn and grow to his full potential.


Well said.

GAC
07-31-2010, 07:35 AM
I think we need Chris Crocker to make a "Leave Bruce Alone" video. ;)

SirFelixCat
07-31-2010, 06:49 PM
Not to pile on, but no HR's in July, 3 in June, 3 in May. .235 OBP in July, while slugging .261.

It's time to sit the kid for a few days, imo. Or, better yet, platoon him. Please. I'd like to stay in the race. This isn't the ONLY issue, but it's definitely looming large for this team.