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Ghosts of 1990
04-18-2010, 01:26 AM
There's a lot of talk about Bruce in various threads. It's all for good reason, and I'm growing fairly concerned with the kid's lack of production and overall what I've started to see in his approach (or lack thereof) during his at-bats.

The question or the question(s) go like this:
-Why is he struggling? He had a good spring after a strong finish to the 2009 season. He hit the ball well the first 8 games of the season even if results didn't show. It's not like he lost his ability that he used all spring on the plane ride back from Arizona to Cincinnati.
-Where does it go from here for Bruce? Could he turn into a platoon player, seeing only starts against RHP as early as May into the rest of the season?
-Do you send him to AAA Louisville? If so, when do you do it and when do you consider bringing him back to Cincinnati? Also who do you call up to fill the void in the outfield?
-At what point, if any; do the Reds consider maybe trading Jay for a change of scenery? Is it way too early to consider this?

If nothing else, after discussing the initial questions; we can track his slump or success here. Hopefully, this thread brings him a little bit of good karma. We need this kid to turn it around for a lot of reasons. I feel bad for him.

REDblooded
04-18-2010, 02:10 AM
Congrats on your 2 weeks worth of analysis. BTW, did you notice that Vernon Wells is the greatest player in the history of baseball? Pretty cool eh?

Ghosts of 1990
04-18-2010, 02:17 AM
Congrats on your 2 weeks worth of analysis. BTW, did you notice that Vernon Wells is the greatest player in the history of baseball? Pretty cool eh?

I'd love to be wrong more then anything in this world; but my eyes aren't lying. I feel that he doesn't look right up there. At bat after at bat he is not doing a lot with fastballs that are grooved.

Ever checked out Inside Edge?

http://espn.inside-edge.com/HRC.aspx?enc=NGW86AH7qLwDQpMT/2Z2WgULfl/IQMM71NXrjRoMhk0=

I think a lot of the posters in ORG will like it. It's detailed scouting analysis. I was surprised to see they rate Bruce as a C+ performance at the plate thus far this year. He was a C- in 2008 and a C+ last year.

In comparison, Votto is a B- this year and Jason Heyward is a B.

It's only been two weeks, but inside edge says Bruce will hit .242 with 20 HR, 62 RBI, and 68 runs scored.

http://espn.inside-edge.com/PlayerProjections.aspx?enc=Hh7b7SVR4hizyA/PRAF/nQ==

If that was offered to us as fans--as poor as he's looked--would you take it? Sad to think about but I am having doubts that he reaches any of those totals if I were betting someone.

KronoRed
04-18-2010, 02:25 AM
Congrats on your 2 weeks worth of analysis. BTW, did you notice that Vernon Wells is the greatest player in the history of baseball? Pretty cool eh?

2 weeks? it's 881 at bats and counting.

Redhook
04-18-2010, 07:55 AM
Jay Bruce needs a hitting coach that knows what he's doing. It's pretty obvious from Jay's batting stance and swing that he has some holes that need to be fixed. It'd be nice to have a guy coaching Jay that could fix these errors.

jojo
04-18-2010, 08:11 AM
He had a good spring after a strong finish to the 2009 season. He hit the ball well the first 8 games of the season even if results didn't show.


It's not like he lost his ability that he used all spring on the plane ride back from Arizona to Cincinnati.



At what point, if any; do the Reds consider maybe trading Jay for a change of scenery? Is it way too early to consider this?

The question isn't really a logical extension of the observations IMHO....

Ghosts of 1990
04-18-2010, 08:39 AM
The question isn't really a logical extension of the observations IMHO....

I'm asking is that something the Reds should consider. It's something I wouldn't think to be an option. But I've also seen some posters suggest it already this season.

pahster
04-18-2010, 09:46 AM
I'm asking is that something the Reds should consider. It's something I wouldn't think to be an option. But I've also seen some posters suggest it already this season.

All teams should always be willing to trade all of their players for the right return. Jay Bruce is no different than Willy Taveras or Albert Pujols in this regard.

Crosley68
04-18-2010, 11:04 AM
2 weeks? it's 881 at bats and counting.

This is the number that should be concerning us. The poor has surpassed the good, and my optimism has been surpassed by concern.

RedEye
04-18-2010, 11:09 AM
This is the number that should be concerning us. The poor has surpassed the good, and my optimism has been surpassed by concern.

Is there some threshold of major league AB's by which we more or less "know" a player's skill set? I'm sure statisticians have made some queries into this matter... right?

jojo
04-18-2010, 11:18 AM
Is there some threshold of major league AB's by which we more or less "know" a player's skill set? I'm sure statisticians have made some queries into this matter... right?

Maybe an important query to begin with would be to compile the list of players that actually recorded 880 major league PAs by their age 23 season..

Kc61
04-18-2010, 11:28 AM
Bruce is very talented and should have a good future. But he's hitting .146 and, if it continues, he needs to go to AAA for awhile. At some point the Reds will have no choice and will have to do this, unless Bruce improves soon.

Which is ok, he's 23, he's not immune to the difficulties of breaking in.

alloverjr
04-18-2010, 11:29 AM
Maybe an important query to begin with would be to compile the list of players that actually recorded 880 major league PAs by their age 23 season..

Which probably leads to the conclusion that he probably isn't ready to be here at 23, much less garner nearly 1000 pa's. Sending him back to AAA isn't saying he sucks, but rather putting him back where he belongs with regards to his peers. And that's exactly what I'd do. Same with Stubbs.

westofyou
04-18-2010, 11:39 AM
"Fans want the player to be not what he inherently is but what they think he ought to be."

Jim Bronson


CAREER
1995-2009
AGE < 23
AT BATS <= 2000
PLATE APPEARANCES displayed only--not a sorting criteria
OBA vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
SLG vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
SECONDARY AVERAGE vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria

RUNS CREATED/GAME DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE AB PA OBA SLG SEC
1 Albert Pujols 3.13 8.28 5.15 1180 1351 .059 .154 .101
2 Pablo Sandoval 2.56 7.60 5.04 717 787 .042 .120 .016
3 Adam Dunn 1.91 7.00 5.10 779 962 .052 .065 .199
4 David Wright 1.87 7.00 5.13 838 940 .032 .093 .074
5 Vladimir Guerrero 1.67 6.77 5.10 975 1058 .019 .121 .032
6 Miguel Cabrera 1.44 6.60 5.16 1530 1716 .025 .091 .050
7 Ben Grieve 1.28 6.45 5.18 676 786 .048 .028 .036
8 Scott Rolen 1.10 6.21 5.11 691 803 .026 .032 .049
9 Justin Upton 1.03 6.12 5.09 1022 1157 .011 .060 .074
10 Hanley Ramirez 0.92 6.26 5.33 635 702 .009 .037 .068
11 Grady Sizemore 0.73 5.67 4.94 778 865 .013 .044 .042
12 Hank Blalock 0.70 5.69 4.99 714 787 .007 .054 .023
13 B.J. Upton 0.67 5.78 5.10 808 914 .018 .013 .054
14 Prince Fielder 0.37 5.68 5.31 628 710 .001 .040 .030
15 Troy Tulowitzki 0.30 5.60 5.30 705 790 .011 .017 -.002
16 Eric Chavez 0.25 5.70 5.45 902 1019 -.002 .023 .035
17 Andruw Jones 0.24 5.51 5.27 1679 1890 -.009 .045 .080
18 Ryan Zimmerman 0.13 5.43 5.30 1325 1466 .001 .030 .009
19 Derek Jeter 0.11 5.63 5.52 630 705 .015 -.018 -.075
20 Carlos Beltran -.02 5.36 5.38 721 786 -.011 .015 -.016
21 Jimmy Rollins -.08 5.21 5.29 709 775 -.015 -.024 -.013
22 Rafael Furcal -.10 5.36 5.46 779 901 .019 -.066 -.004
23 Rocco Baldelli -.20 4.88 5.08 1155 1249 -.010 -.006 -.042
24 Carl Crawford -.24 4.81 5.06 1515 1611 -.020 -.030 -.028
25 Adrian Beltre -.33 5.11 5.44 1718 1918 -.011 -.011 -.018
26 Jeff Francoeur -.43 4.82 5.26 908 960 -.037 .039 -.036
27 Jay Bruce -.45 4.62 5.07 758 839 -.030 .036 .044
28 Billy Butler -.45 4.53 4.98 772 838 -.003 -.002 -.051
29 Melky Cabrera -.47 4.66 5.12 1024 1155 .001 -.042 -.035
30 Sean Burroughs -.49 4.63 5.12 709 784 .003 -.048 -.089
31 Delmon Young -.51 4.50 5.01 1346 1435 -.011 -.011 -.080
32 Jose Reyes -.62 4.50 5.12 1190 1254 -.037 -.035 -.045
33 Troy Glaus -.68 4.67 5.35 716 813 -.026 -.025 .019
34 Omar Infante -.77 4.33 5.10 796 875 -.027 -.039 -.038
35 Johnny Damon -.82 4.62 5.45 705 772 -.033 -.053 -.072
36 Jose Guillen -1.04 4.07 5.11 1071 1131 -.042 -.012 -.094
37 Juan Uribe -1.13 3.97 5.10 839 901 -.041 -.028 -.079
38 Luis Rivas -1.19 3.83 5.02 937 1029 -.020 -.053 -.055
39 Jose Lopez -1.26 3.89 5.15 1000 1076 -.038 -.043 -.094
40 Edgardo Alfonzo -1.34 3.72 5.06 703 763 -.037 -.059 -.125
41 Carlos Gomez -1.34 3.66 5.00 701 753 -.042 -.073 -.061
42 Corey Patterson -1.45 3.65 5.10 765 820 -.062 -.048 -.082
43 Mike Caruso -1.66 3.64 5.29 1052 1119 -.039 -.093 -.156
44 Cristian Guzman -2.06 3.41 5.46 1051 1146 -.062 -.099 -.087

cincinnati chili
04-18-2010, 12:02 PM
That's a good list, WOY. Of the guys ranked below Bruce, I'd say about 50% of them became major league busts. If Bruce's career on-base% continues to hover around .300, he'll be another one. So I agree that there is reason to be concerned.

Am I correct that he still has minor league options remaining? If the Reds are serious about contending this year, they should seriously consider sending him down to work things out in slower motion. Right now he is the Reds' outfielder that I have the fifth most confidence in.

_Sir_Charles_
04-18-2010, 12:13 PM
Jay Bruce needs a hitting coach that knows what he's doing. It's pretty obvious from Jay's batting stance and swing that he has some holes that need to be fixed. It'd be nice to have a guy coaching Jay that could fix these errors.

Paging Peter Edward Rose, Mr Rose....

Seriously though, does anybody else think Rose would make a TREMENDOUS hitting coach? I know it can't happen, but I can't think of anybody else who'd be better at it.

I seriously don't think Bruce needs one. Look at Votto. .260 before yesterday's game. 3 for 4 and he's hitting over .300. Jay's hit the ball hard. Does he strikeout? Sure. But he'll be fine. Just hit 'em where they ain't.

osuceltic
04-18-2010, 12:24 PM
Count me among the concerned. He looks like he's guessing at the plate. That's why he takes so many strikes and swings at so many bad breaking balls. It's also why he's so late on so many good pitches -- and thus popping them up. I still think his high kick is a problem. It worked as a timing mechanism against minor league pitchers. Big leaguers are changing speeds and location on him and he's getting caught off balance or out in front. He's a mess at the plate.

Even beyond that, I wonder about him. He just doesn't seem very alert. It shows up on the basepaths. He doesn't have good instincts at all. He loses concentration in the field at times also. I just wonder where his head is. This is a guy who missed a huge chunk of last season, struggled the vast majority of the time he was healthy, yet took the winter off and didn't hit in the cage until shortly before spring training. It's not going to just happen. He has to work to make it happen.

You know who he reminds me of sometimes? Reggie Sanders. Reggie came up and seemed like he was going to be a star. He had one season (95, I think) when he was a fringe MVP candidate. But ultimately he never became the player we hoped he would be. He settled into a solid journeyman, put together a nice career, but ultimately was a disappointment. I'm hoping Bruce isn't on that same track, but I'm beginning to have some doubts.

hebroncougar
04-18-2010, 12:38 PM
Jay Bruce needs a hitting coach that knows what he's doing. It's pretty obvious from Jay's batting stance and swing that he has some holes that need to be fixed. It'd be nice to have a guy coaching Jay that could fix these errors.


Agreed. Is there anyone, young, or old, that has improved under the tutelage of the current hitting instructor? My faith in him is below zero.

Ghosts of 1990
04-18-2010, 12:41 PM
So if we send Bruce down, who do you bring up? All of the outfielders in AAA are hitting below .200 as of yesterdays game

_Sir_Charles_
04-18-2010, 12:51 PM
So if we send Bruce down, who do you bring up? All of the outfielders in AAA are hitting below .200 as of yesterdays game

I wouldn't send him down. I'd stick his butt in the batting cage and let Mike Lincoln pitch him bender after bender after bender. Have him watch video of successful AB's versus hacktastic ones.

Despite what many here say, Dusty DOES know hitting (not sure about Jacoby...never been impressed with him). So I'd have Baker sitting in on these sessions too. Especially the video ones.

There's nothing in the minors to fix Jay that can't be fixed in Cincy. Right now it's confidence...nothing else. He's doing right now what he did in the first half last year. He was stinging balls with no results and he's changed his mindset and/or approach. Someone should be right behind him kicking his tail to remind him to stick with what works. The results will come.

Benihana
04-18-2010, 12:51 PM
So if we send Bruce down, who do you bring up? All of the outfielders in AAA are hitting below .200 as of yesterdays game

Too bad Wlad is off the 40 man roster. IMO, he should be getting some starts in RF.

forfreelin04
04-18-2010, 01:29 PM
I wouldn't send him down. I'd stick his butt in the batting cage and let Mike Lincoln pitch him bender after bender after bender. Have him watch video of successful AB's versus hacktastic ones.

Despite what many here say, Dusty DOES know hitting (not sure about Jacoby...never been impressed with him). So I'd have Baker sitting in on these sessions too. Especially the video ones.

There's nothing in the minors to fix Jay that can't be fixed in Cincy. Right now it's confidence...nothing else. He's doing right now what he did in the first half last year. He was stinging balls with no results and he's changed his mindset and/or approach. Someone should be right behind him kicking his tail to remind him to stick with what works. The results will come.

It's much more than confidence with fundamentals that bad. He's totally forgotten his technique.

Confidence comes from success, when you lose your confidence, you go back to how you got there, then success happens again. Confidence is just the feeling from those results and how you approach them next time. So Bruce needs to go back to basics and work his way up. Hitting a homer when he steps in the bucket or a bloop hit when he swings at a bad ball might elicit confidence but for the wrong reasons.

The problem is each game counts up here in Cincinnati. They really don't in Louisville. I'm not advocating sending him down because I think he will get it eventually. IMO, if those balls fall the first few games of the season, he gets the homer in Florida, you see a settled Bruce and the results would follow.

_Sir_Charles_
04-18-2010, 03:25 PM
It's much more than confidence with fundamentals that bad. He's totally forgotten his technique.

Confidence comes from success, when you lose your confidence, you go back to how you got there, then success happens again. Confidence is just the feeling from those results and how you approach them next time. So Bruce needs to go back to basics and work his way up. Hitting a homer when he steps in the bucket or a bloop hit when he swings at a bad ball might elicit confidence but for the wrong reasons.

The problem is each game counts up here in Cincinnati. They really don't in Louisville. I'm not advocating sending him down because I think he will get it eventually. IMO, if those balls fall the first few games of the season, he gets the homer in Florida, you see a settled Bruce and the results would follow.

Has he changed his technique? Possibly. I don't get to watch that often. But today for example, he's stung the ball yet again. Robbed on one and the other was the dinger. Yes he's struck out some on some bad breaking balls. But he's also made SOLID contact too...just without results. When he's catching bad breaks on his stung balls, fans will look at the BA and then focus on his bad-looking K's. He'll be fine because he simply can't stay as snakebitten as he has been so far.

OnBaseMachine
04-18-2010, 04:10 PM
Two home runs by Bruce today, one against a lefty, and he also stung another ball that Garrett Jones of all people made a diving stop on to rob him of a third hit. Let's hope today is a sign of things to come from Jay Bruce.

Big Klu
04-18-2010, 06:59 PM
Or maybe he just got lucky today.

Ghosts of 1990
04-18-2010, 07:57 PM
Both HR were off breaking balls from what I saw. Confidence comes like that.

HokieRed
04-18-2010, 09:58 PM
Bruce is the least of our problems.

mth123
04-19-2010, 04:33 AM
What Bruce needs more than anything else IMO is somebody else to carry the mantle of offensive key. Votto had the break-out last season, but the fate of the offense seems tied to how well Jay Bruce is going to be. I think that kind of stuff plays with the head of a 23 y/o kid. He's still a baby and he needs some one else to shoulder that burden while he grows up.

This kid seems like he's trying to hit a 5 run HR every time up and its had him all messed up. This was/is my biggest concern about how this team is put together. Kids are kids and in Bruce' case, the failure to address the middle of the order is having an effect on how he develops. Ideally a big bat would be carrying the load, while Bruce develops and emerges from his shadows. Instead we have a physically impaired Rolen, an aging Cabrera and a cast of defensive specialsts, platoon players and back-ups surrounding he and Votto.

GAC
04-19-2010, 05:00 AM
Bruce is the least of our problems.

Amen to that.

Leave Bruce alone. There's nothing to accomplish by sending him down to AAA because of a slow start after two weeks of baseball.

Raisor
04-19-2010, 08:29 PM
Amen to that.

Leave Bruce alone. There's nothing to accomplish by sending him down to AAA because of a slow start after two weeks of baseball.

especially since the last seven days he's at
.269/.333/.538/.872

Redhook
04-19-2010, 08:54 PM
I definitely wouldn't send him down. I don't think that'd do much. In fact, there's not a whole lot to do at this point in the season.

What'd I'd do next offseason is change Jay's batting a bit. Right now, he looks like an Adam Dunn clone. Good stance for power, but not for consistency. Too high and sitting back too much. I'd like to lower Jay a bit and square him up a little bit more. This would give him some more stability and allow him to drive the ball to all fields a little easier.

Raisor
04-19-2010, 09:02 PM
I'd be more then happy if he was an "Adam Dunn clone".

High OBP, high SLG, sign me up. Add that to his plus defense and the Reds would really have something.

Will M
04-19-2010, 09:43 PM
What Bruce needs more than anything else IMO is somebody else to carry the mantle of offensive key. Votto had the break-out last season, but the fate of the offense seems tied to how well Jay Bruce is going to be. I think that kind of stuff plays with the head of a 23 y/o kid. He's still a baby and he needs some one else to shoulder that burden while he grows up.

This kid seems like he's trying to hit a 5 run HR every time up and its had him all messed up. This was/is my biggest concern about how this team is put together. Kids are kids and in Bruce' case, the failure to address the middle of the order is having an effect on how he develops. Ideally a big bat would be carrying the load, while Bruce develops and emerges from his shadows. Instead we have a physically impaired Rolen, an aging Cabrera and a cast of defensive specialsts, platoon players and back-ups surrounding he and Votto.

I agree here. IMO this also affects Joey. The guy looks pained at the plate. He is the kind of guy who feels like he let the team down each time he makes an out. A big thumper in the 4 hole would have helped Jay & Joey. it would also have allowed guys like Rolen & Phillips to hit in a lineup spot better suited to their abilities. the fault here is squarley on Castellini's shoulders. Walt wasn't going to be able to add a quality bat with no money to pay him.

Ghosts of 1990
04-19-2010, 09:47 PM
I agree here. IMO this also affects Joey. The guy looks pained at the plate. He is the kind of guy who feels like he let the team down each time he makes an out. A big thumper in the 4 hole would have helped Jay & Joey. it would also have allowed guys like Rolen & Phillips to hit in a lineup spot better suited to their abilities. the fault here is squarley on Castellini's shoulders. Walt wasn't going to be able to add a quality bat with no money to pay him.

This is exactly the reason I thought Matt Holliday could have been the acquisition (before the Cards landed him) that would have changed a few careers.

Redhook
04-20-2010, 08:15 AM
I'd be more then happy if he was an "Adam Dunn clone".

High OBP, high SLG, sign me up. Add that to his plus defense and the Reds would really have something.

I'd be happy with that as well, but he isn't going to get on-base like Dunn does. I was just referring to his stance and how it doesn't optimize his ability to hit the ball more consistently.

westofyou
04-20-2010, 09:48 AM
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10590



Jay Bruce has the rudimentary understanding of sabermetrics and he grasps the concept of BABIP. However, the Reds right fielder declined the opportunity to write off his .223 batting average of 2009 to a poor BABIP.

"People have told me about it but you can't use it as an excuse," Bruce said. "Your batting average is what it is. I hit .223 last season."

Bruce's BABIP was an extraordinarily low .221 in 387 plate appearances in '09. The league average is usually around .300.

"I did feel like I hit in some tough luck last year," Bruce admitted. "But I don't know if I really did or not. I don't really get caught up in statistics. Ultimately, you just have to go out and perform. I did feel I had a productive season, though, despite the low batting average. I didn't go home feeling like I had a horrible season."

Bruce hit 22 home runs and had an outstanding .246 isolated power figure as he slugged .467. It was mentioned to Bruce that players who have low BABIPs usually regress to the mean the following season, meaning more balls should fall in for him in 2010.

Bruce smiled and had a slightly understandable skeptical look on his face. Bruce carried a .146 batting average into Sunday's game against the Pirates at PNC Park and his BABIP was just .191, albeit in the small sample size of 46 plate appearances.

"I hope you're right," Bruce said with a smile. "I could use a few hits."

Ghosts of 1990
04-20-2010, 11:08 AM
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10590

Nice find, WOY.

red-in-la
04-20-2010, 06:23 PM
Unfortunately for us fans, Bruce needs to be one of the pillars of the offense for the Reds to compete. A few years ago, the talk was all about teaching patience at the plate....and that seemed to work some. Under Jacoby, it seems to be GUESS, then swing for the river. I even see this year, IMHO, that Votto's swing is longer and he is pulling off the ball.

The other day I was watching Phillips pull so far off the ball, he couldn't reach even inside pitches.

Bruce, Votto and Phillips are all good hitters that need to hit the ball the other way. Right now they seem to be trying to be pure pull hitters.....and that is why they are spotty in their results.

Ghosts of 1990
04-20-2010, 09:17 PM
Triple was a really nice swing to deliver an RBI, but he's disappeared since. We need some multi-hit games in there for Brucey to get out of this funk.

Ghosts of 1990
04-20-2010, 10:44 PM
I thought between his catch in right in the top of the 8th to save the game and the at-bat he had in the bottom of the 8th with one down to draw a walk (allowing him to score the winning run) were pretty big.

Glad to see Brucey contributing and proving he belongs... he was a difference maker tonight.

OnBaseMachine
04-20-2010, 10:45 PM
My goodness Jay Bruce can play some defense. He deserves a Gold Glove this season if he keeps this up.

Screwball
04-20-2010, 10:50 PM
Glad to see Brucey contributing and proving he belongs... he was a difference maker tonight.

Agreed.

Can we stop calling him "Brucey" though?

Raisor
04-20-2010, 11:00 PM
Can we stop calling him "Brucey" though?

it's very Bobby Cox-ish

Ghosts of 1990
04-21-2010, 09:27 PM
What do you guys make of this quote:

"He's probably been our toughest luck guy here, without a doubt," Baker said. "This is why we'll probably stick with him longer than probably anybody out there. He's the youngest and the guy with the highest ceiling for the longest period of time because of his age, his strength, his ability, his speed, his arm strength. He works hard to be a good right fielder."

Ron Madden
04-22-2010, 03:46 AM
What do you guys make of this quote:"He's probably been our toughest luck guy here, without a doubt," Baker said. "This is why we'll probably stick with him longer than probably anybody out there. He's the youngest and the guy with the highest ceiling for the longest period of time because of his age, his strength, his ability, his speed, his arm strength. He works hard to be a good right fielder."

One of the few times I've ever read a quote from Dusty that made any sense.

reds1869
04-22-2010, 08:31 AM
What do you guys make of this quote:

"He's probably been our toughest luck guy here, without a doubt," Baker said. "This is why we'll probably stick with him longer than probably anybody out there. He's the youngest and the guy with the highest ceiling for the longest period of time because of his age, his strength, his ability, his speed, his arm strength. He works hard to be a good right fielder."

Very nice. I have to give the man credit for showing faith in a youngster.

dougdirt
04-22-2010, 10:31 AM
Since April 12th, Jay is hitting .273/.342/.545.

HokieRed
04-22-2010, 11:23 AM
Since April 12th, Jay is hitting .273/.342/.545.

Good reminder to the Bruce doubters. As I've said before, Jay Bruce is the least of our problems.

Brutus
04-22-2010, 12:25 PM
Good reminder to the Bruce doubters. As I've said before, Jay Bruce is the least of our problems.

I don't doubt Bruce can do it, and I still don't doubt that he eventually will, but he deserves some share of the blame for the Reds' problems just as much as several other hitters.

For all the talk of patience, approach and selectivity, Bruce is part of the problem just as much as he's going to be part of the solution.

He's walked just five times in 63 plate appearances (8%), striking out 20% of the time and is seeing just 3.5 pitches per plate appearance. Even if the luck is starting to turn for him a bit, there's still a legitimate issue with his approach at the plate.

Outside of Scott Rolen & Joey Votto, I think all the Reds hitters have at least a little to do with the problems with the offensive issues. Even Votto, up until the last few games, was not delivering very good plate appearances.

Let me add that I'm not picking on Bruce, but rather just not dismissing him from blame like the rest of the lineup.

Cedric
04-22-2010, 12:32 PM
I don't doubt Bruce can do it, and I still don't doubt that he eventually will, but he deserves some share of the blame for the Reds' problems just as much as several other hitters.

For all the talk of patience, approach and selectivity, Bruce is part of the problem just as much as he's going to be part of the solution.

He's walked just five times in 63 plate appearances (8%), striking out 20% of the time and is seeing just 3.5 pitches per plate appearance. Even if the luck is starting to turn for him a bit, there's still a legitimate issue with his approach at the plate.

Outside of Scott Rolen & Joey Votto, I think all the Reds hitters have at least a little to do with the problems with the offensive issues. Even Votto, up until the last few games, was not delivering very good plate appearances.

Let me add that I'm not picking on Bruce, but rather just not dismissing him from blame like the rest of the lineup.

IMO he doesn't deserve as much blame because he actually has a future here. I'm much more willing to give Bruce slack than the likes of Cabrera, Hernandez, and Cairo.

dougdirt
04-22-2010, 12:33 PM
I don't doubt Bruce can do it, and I still don't doubt that he eventually will, but he deserves some share of the blame for the Reds' problems just as much as several other hitters.

For all the talk of patience, approach and selectivity, Bruce is part of the problem just as much as he's going to be part of the solution.

He's walked just five times in 63 plate appearances (8%), striking out 20% of the time and is seeing just 3.5 pitches per plate appearance. Even if the luck is starting to turn for him a bit, there's still a legitimate issue with his approach at the plate.

I am not sure I can agree that Jay's 8.6% walk rate and 20.7% K rate being a problem at all.

Brutus
04-22-2010, 12:40 PM
IMO he doesn't deserve as much blame because he actually has a future here. I'm much more willing to give Bruce slack than the likes of Cabrera, Hernandez, and Cairo.

Right, but not referring to what may be done down the road and judging based on what has been done, to this point, April 22, he deserves some of the blame for the offensive woes. Fair statement?

Brutus
04-22-2010, 12:49 PM
I am not sure I can agree that Jay's 8.6% walk rate and 20.7% K rate being a problem at all.

Why? His rates are below major league average. Why is that not at least a bit of a problem?

To reference what you once said about Juan Francisco... the K rate wouldn't be so bad if the walk rate were better. But he's not drawing walks and he's not putting the ball in play as much as he could to offset that, or visa versa.

Together, it's a 2.5-1 K:BB ratio and that's not good. It's not disastrous, by any stretch of the imagination, but I don't think it should get a pass considering of the regulars, only Gomes & Dickerson have worse rates right now.

dougdirt
04-22-2010, 01:29 PM
Why? His rates are below major league average. Why is that not at least a bit of a problem?

To reference what you once said about Juan Francisco... the K rate wouldn't be so bad if the walk rate were better. But he's not drawing walks and he's not putting the ball in play as much as he could to offset that, or visa versa.

Together, it's a 2.5-1 K:BB ratio and that's not good. It's not disastrous, by any stretch of the imagination, but I don't think it should get a pass considering of the regulars, only Gomes & Dickerson have worse rates right now.

When it falls below 3-1, it is a problem. Until then, its just fine. Sure, I would like it in the Albert Pujols range, but anything below 3-1 for a power hitter is going to be just fine.

Brutus
04-22-2010, 01:49 PM
When it falls below 3-1, it is a problem. Until then, its just fine. Sure, I would like it in the Albert Pujols range, but anything below 3-1 for a power hitter is going to be just fine.

If the said power hitter is hitting for power. He's not doing that right now, though, so it's a problem until he does consistently.

Raisor
04-22-2010, 02:54 PM
If the said power hitter is hitting for power. He's not doing that right now, though, so it's a problem until he does consistently.

Since April 12th, Jay is hitting .273/.342/.545.


Yes, Bruce started off slow, but he's coming out of it.

Brutus
04-22-2010, 03:10 PM
Since April 12th, Jay is hitting .273/.342/.545.


Yes, Bruce started off slow, but he's coming out of it.

We thought that at various points last year. But when he was in the lineup, he wound up with a .773 OPS - not dreadful but also not worthy of mediocre peripherals.

Nine days is not enough to say he's "coming out of it." Fact remains is that, for now, he still has a .624 OPS for the season.

I like Jay Bruce as much as the next guy. I think he has enormous potential. But while I do not mean to crucify him, I don't understand all the passes being given to him for mediocre performance while some of the other Reds' hitters get shredded on a daily basis.

Until Bruce proves, for a full season, that he's going to deliver consistent power numbers, he is no more above the criticism than anyone else.

Ghosts of 1990
04-22-2010, 04:38 PM
Personally I'd like to see him not give away so many at-bats on fastballs over the heart of the plate. He hasn't gotten 'HOT' yet, to where you cannot throw him a mistake pitch down the middle. He misses a lot.

Ghosts of 1990
04-22-2010, 04:41 PM
As an added point, does anyone think he'd find more success at a different spot in the lineup? Certainly he could be as productive in the 2 slot as Orlando Cabrera and with more protection then he has now every night (Janish, Hanigan, Gomes, Stubbs, Dickerson, etc.)

The guy is 23 and they don't protect their investment and see how he could fully blossom with a Phillips or Rolen or Votto hitting behind him. This drives me nuts!

bucksfan2
04-22-2010, 04:47 PM
As an added point, does anyone think he'd find more success at a different spot in the lineup? Certainly he could be as productive in the 2 slot as Orlando Cabrera and with more protection then he has now every night (Janish, Hanigan, Gomes, Stubbs, Dickerson, etc.)

The guy is 23 and they don't protect their investment and see how he could fully blossom with a Phillips or Rolen or Votto hitting behind him. This drives me nuts!

It sure didn't hurt Votto to hit lower in the lineup.

So far Bruce hasn't proven that he deserves to be higher in the lineup. Until he does so he belongs where he is.

TRF
04-22-2010, 04:51 PM
I always laugh to myself when i read or hear "deserves to hit higher in the lineup".

Like that is some kind of honor or prize.

Truth is, hitting 2nd often jumpstarts a player. A lot of us clamored for Dunn in the 2 spot. Why not bat CD 1, Bruce 2 and see what happens?

Right now, on this team, Jay Bruce is not a problem. 10 days ago I would have said not the ONLY problem.

dougdirt
04-22-2010, 05:23 PM
We thought that at various points last year. But when he was in the lineup, he wound up with a .773 OPS - not dreadful but also not worthy of mediocre peripherals.

Nine days is not enough to say he's "coming out of it." Fact remains is that, for now, he still has a .624 OPS for the season.

I like Jay Bruce as much as the next guy. I think he has enormous potential. But while I do not mean to crucify him, I don't understand all the passes being given to him for mediocre performance while some of the other Reds' hitters get shredded on a daily basis.

Until Bruce proves, for a full season, that he's going to deliver consistent power numbers, he is no more above the criticism than anyone else.
Laast season Jay did hit for power. Check is IsoP to see that. The problem was, he wasn't hitting singles.

RedsManRick
04-22-2010, 05:44 PM
Until Bruce proves, for a full season, that he's going to deliver consistent power numbers, he is no more above the criticism than anyone else.

A .246 ISO isn't power? Among players with 300+ PA, Bruce was tied for 20th of 284 in MLB. Votto was at .245, FWIW.

"Power numbers" are not the place where he deserves criticism. If you're worried about his SLG, the primary way he's going to get that up is by hitting more singles, which takes us right back to the BABIP issues.

Brutus
04-22-2010, 06:11 PM
A .246 ISO isn't power? Among players with 300+ PA, Bruce was tied for 20th of 284 in MLB. Votto was at .245, FWIW.

"Power numbers" are not the place where he deserves criticism. If you're worried about his SLG, the primary way he's going to get that up is by hitting more singles, which takes us right back to the BABIP issues.

I was referring to slugging as a whole, as that obviously correlates more than isolated power.

And I don't buy into the BABIP issues. Remember he hit 12% line drives last season. This year, hitting line drives isn't a problem thus far, but still until the kid has even one full season over 800 OPS, he shouldn't be let off the hook anymore than any other player.

dougdirt
04-22-2010, 06:18 PM
This year, hitting line drives isn't a problem thus far, but still until the kid has even one full season over 800 OPS, he shouldn't be let off the hook anymore than any other player.
Sure he should. Bruce having a .775 OPS is a lot different than Gomes having a .775 OPS. Same for Votto. Being a plus defender gives you a little more leeway. And this season, its tough to look at what Jay has actually done on the field and say, "man that guy has sucked".

Ghosts of 1990
04-22-2010, 06:43 PM
I always laugh to myself when i read or hear "deserves to hit higher in the lineup".

Like that is some kind of honor or prize.

Truth is, hitting 2nd often jumpstarts a player. A lot of us clamored for Dunn in the 2 spot. Why not bat CD 1, Bruce 2 and see what happens?

Right now, on this team, Jay Bruce is not a problem. 10 days ago I would have said not the ONLY problem.


Thank you. What could it hurt? Try it for 20 games. If it doesn't work they can bury Bruce again. Stubbs got his 15 games at the top

Brutus
04-22-2010, 06:51 PM
Sure he should. Bruce having a .775 OPS is a lot different than Gomes having a .775 OPS. Same for Votto. Being a plus defender gives you a little more leeway. And this season, its tough to look at what Jay has actually done on the field and say, "man that guy has sucked".

Offensively it's the same. Yea defensively there's absolutely no comparison, but we're talking about offense - Jay Bruce is every bit as much to blame right now with the Reds' offensive problems as is Jonny Gomes. And I, for one, have not said he sucked so don't put words into my mouth. Just that he has to be held responsible for not producing just like Gomes, Dickerson, Phillips et all.

dougdirt
04-22-2010, 07:07 PM
Offensively it's the same. Yea defensively there's absolutely no comparison, but we're talking about offense - Jay Bruce is every bit as much to blame right now with the Reds' offensive problems as is Jonny Gomes. And I, for one, have not said he sucked so don't put words into my mouth. Just that he has to be held responsible for not producing just like Gomes, Dickerson, Phillips et all.

Except unlike Gomes or Votto, Bruce isn't playing solely because of his bat. He is playing because of both his bat and his glove.

RedsManRick
04-22-2010, 07:14 PM
I was referring to slugging as a whole, as that obviously correlates more than isolated power.

What correlates to what? Jay Bruce has hit for power in the major leagues. He has not hit for average in the major leagues. If your analysis is limited to his power, ISO is the best indicator. But even if you want to stick to SLG, his .470 last year was significantly above the MLB average of .418.



And I don't buy into the BABIP issues. Remember he hit 12% line drives last season. This year, hitting line drives isn't a problem thus far, but still until the kid has even one full season over 800 OPS, he shouldn't be let off the hook anymore than any other player.

Yes, his LD% sucked last year, which explains a good deal of his low BABIP (but not all of it). But given that he's hitting plenty of LD this year, why are we having this conversation still? Because he's got a .205 BABIP and a correspondingly low AVG/OBP/SLG line. If he were hitting .265/.330/.450, like his hit type production would suggest, nobody would be calling for him to go to AAA. You can't have it both ways.

Nobody is letting him "off the hook". Rather, they're saying that people should get off the back of the just turned 23 year old who was an average major league RF at ages 21 and 22. Yes, he's still learning. He's still adjusting. But he's not hurting the Reds in the meantime. He's playing very good defense thus far in 2010 and has hit the ball much, much better than his slash stats would suggest.

I'm not sure how exactly what you want us to "hold him responsible" for. If you want to blame him for his line drives not falling in for hits, go for it. If you wanted to rank guys in terms of who is under-performing expectations, Bruce is probably 4th or 5th, certainly behind Stubbs, Cabrera, and Hernandez.

I'm not concluding that "he's coming out of it" or anything else. I'm just saying that we need to stop trying to conclude anything 2 weeks in to his age 23 season and simply let the kid play. At worst he's a slight disappoint who is still providing solid value and for whom we have no better alternative. At best, we have a stud in the making who is still in the process of putting it together and could turn the corner at any time.

As for this team's supposed offensive struggles, we're averaging 4.7 runs a game and on pace for 756 runs. I don't know about you, but that's actually better than I was expecting out of this offense. It's certainly not "struggling". This team isn't losing because of its offense. It's losing because it's allowing over 6 runs per game, nearly a 1,000 runs against pace. And in terms of run prevention, Jay Bruce is one of the few bright spots on this team so far.

Brutus
04-22-2010, 07:20 PM
Except unlike Gomes or Votto, Bruce isn't playing solely because of his bat. He is playing because of both his bat and his glove.

Again, we're talking about scoring runs here. Forget defense. That has absolutely nothing to do with whether guys are hitting or not. That's all this is about - the affect on the Reds' struggling offense.

Since the start of 2009, Jonny Gomes has created more runs, despite fewer plate appearances than has Jay Bruce. At some point, whether he's been lucky or unlucky, he is also should be held accountable for whether he's getting it done offensively. I'm not talking about benching the guy. Like you have said, he's a great defensive outfielder - one of the best RF's in the game. But I'm only referring to his production or lack thereof. As long as he continues to struggle with the bat, it's not prudent to dismiss his walk and strikeout rates. They are the core indicators of a very wishy washy plate approach - which most of the team is struggling with. And it's that reason that I think he's just as guilty.

Brutus
04-22-2010, 07:24 PM
What correlates to what? Jay Bruce has hit for power in the major leagues. He has not hit for average in the major leagues. If your analysis is limited to his power, ISO is the best indicator. But even if you want to stick to SLG, his .470 last year was significantly above the MLB average of .418.



Yes, his LD% sucked last year, which explains a good deal of his low BABIP (but not all of it). But given that he's hitting plenty of LD this year, why are we having this conversation still? Because he's got a .205 BABIP and a correspondingly low AVG/OBP/SLG line. If he were hitting .265/.330/.450, like his hit type production would suggest, nobody would be calling for him to go to AAA. You can't have it both ways.

Nobody is letting him "off the hook". Rather, they're saying that people should get off the back of the just turned 23 year old who was an average major league RF at ages 21 and 22. Yes, he's still learning. He's still adjusting. But he's not hurting the Reds in the meantime. He's playing very good defense thus far in 2010 and has hit the ball much, much better than his slash stats would suggest.

I'm not concluding that "he's coming out of it" or anything else. I'm just saying that we need to stop trying to conclude anything and simply let the kid play. At worst he's a slight disappoint who is still providing solid value and for whom we have no better alternative. At best, we have a stud in the making who still in the process of putting it together. How about we show a bit of patience and not get hung up over whether or not he's clear a given round OPS number (that has no intrinsic value as a bar by which he should judged) before he's old enough to rent a car.

I'm not sure how exactly you want us to "hold him responsible." Yes, our offensive struggles are partly because Jay Bruce hasn't hit as well as we'd all like him to. Happy?

You're taking a response I made to one person and are throwing it as if I were speaking to everyone.

Doug said he didn't consider the walk rate and strikeout rates to be a big deal. I said he shouldn't be off the hook for those. He said he believed those rates weren't alarming for a power hitter. My point was until Jay Bruce produces like a power hitter, in the broad slugging sense (not actual isolated raw power), those rates should be concerning.

All I'm saying is that I don't agree/understand giving him a pass on his plate approach and crucify others for it. That was mostly directed at the few people I was responding to.

dougdirt
04-22-2010, 07:27 PM
Again, we're talking about scoring runs here. Forget defense. That has absolutely nothing to do with whether guys are hitting or not. That's all this is about - the affect on the Reds' struggling offense.
The Reds were winning games when Bruce wasn't hitting. When he started hitting, they have been losing. Jay hasn't been the problem at all this season so far. From April 5th until April 11th, the Reds went 3-3 with Bruce hitting .053/.100/.053. Since then the Reds have gone 3-6 while Bruce has hit .273/.342/.545.

Brutus
04-22-2010, 07:33 PM
The Reds were winning games when Bruce wasn't hitting. When he started hitting, they have been losing. Jay hasn't been the problem at all this season so far. From April 5th until April 11th, the Reds went 3-3 with Bruce hitting .053/.100/.053. Since then the Reds have gone 3-6 while Bruce has hit .273/.342/.545.

What does one have to do with the other? You're surely not arguing that the Reds are better with Bruce struggling.

Bruce's approach is bad, at least in large spurts. He shows flashes of patience and selectivity at times, and then other times he goes up and swings at bad pitches. His walk and strikeout rates are very much important because they're partial anecdotal descriptions of his problematic approach. With the entire team hacking away, Bruce has been part of the problem just as much as others have.

dougdirt
04-22-2010, 07:35 PM
What does one have to do with the other? You're surely not arguing that the Reds are better with Bruce struggling.

Bruce's approach is bad, at least in large spurts. He shows flashes of patience and selectivity at times, and then other times he goes up and swings at bad pitches. His walk and strikeout rates are very much important because they're partial anecdotal descriptions of his problematic approach. With the entire team hacking away, Bruce has been part of the problem just as much as others have.

I am saying that while the Reds offense has really sucked, they got the job done while he was not hitting (be it luck or whatever you want), but he has been getting it done lately and the rest of the offense stopped showing up.

Still not sure Jay is 'hacking away'. He has a decent K/BB rate and a good line drive rate.

RedsManRick
04-22-2010, 07:36 PM
You're taking a response I made to one person and are throwing it as if I were speaking to everyone.

Doug said he didn't consider the walk rate and strikeout rates to be a big deal. I said he shouldn't be off the hook for those. He said he believed those rates weren't alarming for a power hitter. My point was until Jay Bruce produces like a power hitter, in the broad slugging sense (not actual isolated raw power), those rates should be concerning.

All I'm saying is that I don't agree/understand giving him a pass on his plate approach and crucify others for it. That was mostly directed at the few people I was responding to.

Ok, to your specific point then, I still appeal to his age. He's a 23 year old with a career ISO of .217, BB% of 8.6%, and K% of 23.1%. Yes, his LD% last year was absolutely terrible. That resulted in a low BABIP which lowered all of his slash stats.

But this year he's producing a decent walk rate, a reasonable (though not ideal) K rate, a solid LD rate, and an ISO pushing .200. His slash stats (OPS) will come up when his singles start falling in and given his LD%, they should.

I don't understand why those rates should be considered concerning when they are right in line with what other sluggers do. Bruce's issue has been his LD%, not his BB and K rates. If he fixes the LD issue, the BB and K rates won't be a problem. If he doesn't fix the LD issue, no improvement in his BB and K rates will make him a productive hitter. Doug's point stands -- you're worrying about the wrong things.

Yes, As 1/9 of the Reds lineup, when Bruce hits poorly, the Reds offensive production is affected. We should want him to improve so that the Reds offense can improve. If that's your primary point, let's just agree and move on. The degree to which he's struggling and the cause of those struggles should not be conflated with the impact of his bat on the Reds overall offensive output.

Brutus
04-22-2010, 07:43 PM
I am saying that while the Reds offense has really sucked, they got the job done while he was not hitting (be it luck or whatever you want), but he has been getting it done lately and the rest of the offense stopped showing up.

Still not sure Jay is 'hacking away'. He has a decent K/BB rate and a good line drive rate.

He's seeing just 3.5 pitches per plate appearance. That puts him 88 of 102 qualified hitters in the NL according to Baseball-Reference.

As far as K/BB rate, he's in the lower 33 percentile of that of qualified guys in the NL.

I don't know about you, but 12 percentile and 33 percentile is not "decent" by most standards of measurement.

Brutus
04-22-2010, 07:47 PM
Ok, to your specific point then, I still appeal to his age. He's a 23 year old with a career ISO of .217, BB% of 8.6%, and K% of 23.1%. Yes, his LD% last year was absolutely terrible. That resulted in a low BABIP which lowered all of his slash stats.

But this year he's producing a decent walk rate, a reasonable (though not ideal) K rate, a solid LD rate, and an ISO pushing .200. His slash stats (OPS) will come up when his singles start falling in and given his LD%, they should.

I don't understand why those rates should be considered concerning when they are right in line with what other sluggers do. Bruce's issue has been his LD%, not his BB and K rates. If he fixes the LD issue, the BB and K rates won't be a problem. If he doesn't fix the LD issue, no improvement in his BB and K rates will make him a productive hitter. Doug's point stands -- you're worrying about the wrong things.

Yes, As 1/9 of the Reds lineup, when Bruce hits poorly, the Reds offensive production is affected. We should want him to improve so that the Reds offense can improve. If that's your primary point, let's just agree and move on. The degree to which he's struggling and the cause of those struggles should not be conflated with the impact of his bat on the Reds overall offensive output.

He's seeing 3.5 pitches a plate appearance. Until his approach changes, I don't believe those rates will get any better.

Yes, he's young. He absolutely has all the potential to improve in the world. But while others are assuming he's just been unlucky and will automatically get better, I believe his rates are indicative of a kid that needs to continue to improve his approach if he wants to get north of 800 OPS with consistency.

The K:BB rate is not good by any measure. It's tolerable if you are hitting 40 homers a year. However, Bruce has to be able to handle being pitched down & away to do that. He also has to show the ability to hit for power to the opposite field. His hit charts have shown no evidence of that (yet).

I realize no one is saying he's a finished product. But I think these rates shouldn't be swept under the rug. They're, in my opinion, somewhat indicative of larger issues.

RedsManRick
04-22-2010, 09:01 PM
I realize no one is saying he's a finished product. But I think these rates shouldn't be swept under the rug. They're, in my opinion, somewhat indicative of larger issues.

As Bruce belts HR #3 off an eephus pitch at his ankles, we'll have to agree to disagree. I don't think Bruce will be an offensive force until those rates improve. But I think he can be and is a solid producer as is and look forward to watching him improve over the next few years.

Falls City Beer
04-22-2010, 09:25 PM
Can we stop whingeing about the offense, already?

RedsManRick
04-22-2010, 09:49 PM
Can we stop whingeing about the offense, already?

Averaging (at least) 4.9 R/G after tonight. Go figure.

Falls City Beer
04-22-2010, 09:51 PM
Averaging (at least) 4.9 R/G after tonight. Go figure.

If only they'd stop surrendering an avg. 12 runs a game. We might have a team to follow.

Ghosts of 1990
04-22-2010, 10:02 PM
Very Dunn-esque night tonight. Loved seeing him wait back on that pitch tonight and crush it out.

Padilla-fail.

OnBaseMachine
04-22-2010, 11:44 PM
Bruce had a horrendous first week of the season but since April the 12th he's hitting .278/.357/.611 - .968 OPS. He got off to such a horrible start it's going to take a while for his numbers to recover but he's been crushing the ball in the last 10 days. Hopefully it continues.

Tommyjohn25
04-22-2010, 11:52 PM
I had pretty good seats tonight for the game. That eephus (sp) pitch that Padilla was throwing was strange. He threw it to Jay in his first AB and he took it. Right before his home run AB I looked at my Dad and said " I wonder if he's gonna start him off on that softball pitch again." Oops....

11larkin11
04-22-2010, 11:56 PM
He's seeing just 3.5 pitches per plate appearance. That puts him 88 of 102 qualified hitters in the NL according to Baseball-Reference.

As far as K/BB rate, he's in the lower 33 percentile of that of qualified guys in the NL.

I don't know about you, but 12 percentile and 33 percentile is not "decent" by most standards of measurement.

Its way too early to look at pitches per plate appearance. I don't expect a dude who is looking fastball to take a 0-0 fastball down the heart of the plate.

RedsManRick
04-23-2010, 12:14 AM
For the first 5 years of his career, Albert Pujols averaged just 3.76 P/PA. Bruce is at 3.83 P/PA so far in his major league career. I'm not too worried that his P/PA signals some problem with his approach. Clearly you can be a successful slugger without seeing 4 pitches per plate appearance.

oregonred
04-23-2010, 12:14 AM
For the first 5 years of his career, Albert Pujols averaged just 3.76 P/PA. Bruce is at 3.83 P/PA so far in his major league career. I'm not too worried that his P/PA signals some problem with his approach. Clearly you can be a successful slugger without seeing 4 pitches per plate appearance.

Great stat

Ghosts of 1990
04-23-2010, 12:44 AM
Bruce had a horrendous first week of the season but since April the 12th he's hitting .278/.357/.611 - .968 OPS. He got off to such a horrible start it's going to take a while for his numbers to recover but he's been crushing the ball in the last 10 days. Hopefully it continues.

Trying not to get my hopes up TOO MUCH, but these slash stats really do have me hopeful after last season's finish and the spring he had... the making of not a slugger but a more complete player. Just keep it going #32

Brutus
04-23-2010, 01:30 AM
For the first 5 years of his career, Albert Pujols averaged just 3.76 P/PA. Bruce is at 3.83 P/PA so far in his major league career. I'm not too worried that his P/PA signals some problem with his approach. Clearly you can be a successful slugger without seeing 4 pitches per plate appearance.

I wholeheartedly agree that you don't have to see four pitches per at-bat to be successful. I've argued that for a long time everytime I hear someone complain when a batter swings at a first pitch fastball.

But what is left out in your stat regarding Pujols (which is a good find, I'll grant you) is that Pujols averaged 11% walk rate those years and had more walks than strikeouts in seasons 2-5. Bruce right now has a 2.59-1 K:BB rate. I didn't use the pitch count as the only evidence that Bruce is struggling with his approach. In a vacuum, it's not the most important thing to see a bunch of pitches. But it's what you do with those pitches and until Bruce is consistent with either drawing more walks, striking out less or a lot more hits start falling in, these rates are still going to be a bit of a concern.

I am rooting for Jay. I think he's got a good sense of what he should be doing at the plate. He just needs to discipline himself to do it more often. If he does, he's got a chance to be real good.

Ron Madden
04-23-2010, 03:09 AM
Write Jay Bruce in the starting lineup everyday and just leave him be.

mth123
04-23-2010, 06:23 AM
Write Jay Bruce in the starting lineup everyday and just leave him be.

Hitting 4th.

The reds have gotten some hits from many guys lately, but IMO the offense has perked up because Bruce and Votto are both hot at the same time. They should hit back to back.

Screwball
04-23-2010, 07:27 AM
Hitting 4th.

The reds have gotten some hits from many guys lately, but IMO the offense has perked up because Bruce and Votto are both hot at the same time. They should hit back to back.

Votto, Bruce, Rolen all hitting what they're capable of is a pretty formidable heart of the lineup.

bucksfan2
04-23-2010, 08:49 AM
Should you get credit for hitting a HR on a softball pitch? Was that the first pitch of the at bat as well? I laughed when I saw the pitch and then laughed when it went out of the park.

I didn't know Padilla could dial it up as fast as he could. That eephus pitch sure would look nice after a 95 MPH heater. Not exactly as the first pitch of the at bat.

Ghosts of 1990
04-23-2010, 09:28 AM
Should you get credit for hitting a HR on a softball pitch? Was that the first pitch of the at bat as well? I laughed when I saw the pitch and then laughed when it went out of the park.

I didn't know Padilla could dial it up as fast as he could. That eephus pitch sure would look nice after a 95 MPH heater. Not exactly as the first pitch of the at bat.

The amount of discipline he showed to wait back on that pitch was really nice and it was a definite adjustment, also keep in mind that Bruce had to supply all the power. It should count for two for Padilla making a mockery not once but twice against a pro hitter

nate
04-23-2010, 09:39 AM
Should you get credit for hitting a HR on a softball pitch? Was that the first pitch of the at bat as well? I laughed when I saw the pitch and then laughed when it went out of the park.

I didn't know Padilla could dial it up as fast as he could. That eephus pitch sure would look nice after a 95 MPH heater. Not exactly as the first pitch of the at bat.

I thought it was disciplined of Jay to even wait that long and it was still barely fair.

Yep, cool change of pace pitch for Padilla.

RedsManRick
04-23-2010, 02:26 PM
I wholeheartedly agree that you don't have to see four pitches per at-bat to be successful. I've argued that for a long time everytime I hear someone complain when a batter swings at a first pitch fastball.

But what is left out in your stat regarding Pujols (which is a good find, I'll grant you) is that Pujols averaged 11% walk rate those years and had more walks than strikeouts in seasons 2-5. Bruce right now has a 2.59-1 K:BB rate. I didn't use the pitch count as the only evidence that Bruce is struggling with his approach. In a vacuum, it's not the most important thing to see a bunch of pitches. But it's what you do with those pitches and until Bruce is consistent with either drawing more walks, striking out less or a lot more hits start falling in, these rates are still going to be a bit of a concern.

I am rooting for Jay. I think he's got a good sense of what he should be doing at the plate. He just needs to discipline himself to do it more often. If he does, he's got a chance to be real good.

This is basically the Dunn conversation all over again. You are conflating plate approach and contact ability. Yes, Bruce should not swing at pitches that he cannot drive. And yes, Pujols kept his P/PA low because he was putting the ball in play where as Bruce is striking out. But no amount of selectivity will turn Bruce in to Albert Pujols in terms of making contact.

Jay has never been a great contact hitter and unless he completely revamps his swing he never will be. And so long as he's not a stellar contact hitter, he's going to have more than his fair share of strikeouts. As he learns to lay off some pitches, the walk rate will likely come up a bit and the strikeout rate will come down a bit However, the strikeout rate will probably stay north of 16%. I would be surprised if Bruce got that ratio below 2.0 in the near future. But he doesn't have to.

Is a 2.6:1 ratio good? Of course not. But you can be a productive hitter with a 2.6:1 ratio. Right now, today, Bruce is at least a league average hitter -- even though his slash stats don't currently show it. You continue to assert, or at least imply, that it's his fault that his line drives aren't falling in this year, using the fact that it was partially his fault last year. That's not a logical jump to make. Bruce does not need to change anything for those hits to start falling in. That's why I claim that we shouldn't be worried about his K:BB ratio. With zero change in his K:BB ratio, once his BABIP normalizes to his LD%, he'll be putting up something like a .260/.330/.470 line.

I'd love for Bruce to improve and turn in to that .900+ OPS beast we're all dreaming of. But you need to stop using things that are beyond his control and which will regress to normal as time progresses as the reason why we should be concerned about the things within his control. There's a big, big difference between being concerned about something for illogical reasons and recognizing that he has to improve upon it in order to go from solid to great.

Brutus
04-23-2010, 03:27 PM
This is basically the Dunn conversation all over again. You are conflating plate approach and contact ability. Yes, Bruce should not swing at pitches that he cannot drive. And yes, Pujols kept his P/PA low because he was putting the ball in play where as Bruce is striking out. But no amount of selectivity will turn Bruce in to Albert Pujols in terms of making contact.

Jay has never been a great contact hitter and unless he completely revamps his swing he never will be. And so long as he's not a stellar contact hitter, he's going to have more than his fair share of strikeouts. As he learns to lay off some pitches, the walk rate will likely come up a bit and the strikeout rate will come down a bit However, the strikeout rate will probably stay north of 16%. I would be surprised if Bruce got that ratio below 2.0 in the near future. But he doesn't have to.

Is a 2.6:1 ratio good? Of course not. But you can be a productive hitter with a 2.6:1 ratio. Right now, today, Bruce is at least a league average hitter -- even though his slash stats don't currently show it. You continue to assert, or at least imply, that it's his fault that his line drives aren't falling in this year, using the fact that it was partially his fault last year. That's not a logical jump to make. Bruce does not need to change anything for those hits to start falling in. That's why I claim that we shouldn't be worried about his K:BB ratio. With zero change in his K:BB ratio, once his BABIP normalizes to his LD%, he'll be putting up something like a .260/.330/.470 line.

I'd love for Bruce to improve and turn in to that .900+ OPS beast we're all dreaming of. But you need to stop using things that are beyond his control and which will regress to normal as time progresses as the reason why we should be concerned about the things within his control. There's a big, big difference between being concerned about something for illogical reasons and recognizing that he has to improve upon it in order to go from solid to great.

You say: "Bruce does not need to change anything for those hits to start falling in."

That really depends on his approach. I wasn't conflating contact ability with approach because I'm arguing that his contact ability is, in part, his swinging at bad pitches. I guess I could have better made the point earlier had I mentioned that he's been constantly below average in O-Swing%. The good news is that he's (seemingly) improving his rate of swinging at pitches outside the zone, but he's still below average.

If he lays off the bad pitches and becomes more selective, waiting for a good pitch, then I agree with you the hits will fall in. The problem is he currently had a below average 17% line drive percentage in his major league career. That, in my estimation, has a lot to do with making weak contact on bad pitches. Should he start being more selective, and make more consistent contact (20-22% line drives, etc.), then I absolutely agree with you - those hits will fall.

I'm not terribly concerned by Bruce's strikeout rate in isolation. Actually, I'd almost rather see it go up very slightly if it meant improving the number of walks he draws. Right now my issue with it has to do with the fact it (in a small part) reflects his swinging at too many early (less than ideal) or bad pitches and that he's not walking enough to support that rate from an on-base perspective (i.e. putting more balls in play to make up for fewer walks).

These things aren't beyond his control, for the most part. That's the problem... he's not making solid contact often enough. Sure, he's had some absolute stingers that have been right at people. But he's also had so many lazy flies this season and last that he absolutely should have a much lower BABIP. It's not all beyond his control. This is the remaining gap that people are jumping over in concluding he's been unlucky.

RedsManRick
04-23-2010, 04:53 PM
Should he start being more selective, and make more consistent contact (20-22% line drives, etc.), then I absolutely agree with you - those hits will fall.

Ok, I think I've found the nugget I have a problem with. We actually agree for the most part. However, you've combined two things in this statement which are actually quite different.
1) The rate at which he makes solid contact (LD%)
2) The rate at which solidly hit balls fall in for hits

#1 is within his control and, we can agree, he needs to improve upon it. We also agree that a better approach (e.g. swing less often at bad pitches) will drive LD% up.

#2 is something out of his control. While he has had a low LD% in his career, namely last year, his BABIP was (and is again this year) lower than it should be given his current LD%. That is to say, his BABIP < eBABIP -- eBABIP being the expected BABIP given the type of contact the player has made.

This is the key point that you seem to be ignoring. Even given his current LD%, he's been quite unlucky. So, if you hold everything he's currently doing steady and simply return his luck to normal, you've got an .800 OPS guy. That is my point.

Now, if his luck returns to normal AND he improves his LD% like we'd both like to see, then he's got .900+ OPS potential. We just need to be careful we separate his skill from his luck and I don't think you've been willing to concede that his low BABIP has been the result of more than just a low LD%.

bucksfan2
04-23-2010, 04:57 PM
This is the key point that you seem to be ignoring. Even given his current LD%, he's been quite unlucky. So, if you hold everything he's currently doing steady and simply return his luck to normal, you've got an .800 OPS guy. That is my point.

Now, if his luck returns to normal AND he improves his LD% like we'd both like to see, then he's got .900+ OPS potential. We just need to be careful we separate his skill from his luck and I don't think you've been willing to concede that his low BABIP has been the result of more than just a low LD%.

Luck and BABIP have long been discussed when dealing with Bruce. On paper it does appear as if he has been unlucky over the past year plus. I can't recall much of his season last year but I do recall that he was often over matched. I wonder if someone/anyone has gone back and looked at his season last year, the actual season, not the results. It would be tedious and time consuming but it may shed more light than just saying "unlucky".

*note*

I am not suggesting that anyone go back and watch game film of all his at bats last year, just that I wonder if the game film would tell you more or less about "luck".

dougdirt
04-23-2010, 05:08 PM
Luck and BABIP have long been discussed when dealing with Bruce. On paper it does appear as if he has been unlucky over the past year plus. I can't recall much of his season last year but I do recall that he was often over matched. I wonder if someone/anyone has gone back and looked at his season last year, the actual season, not the results. It would be tedious and time consuming but it may shed more light than just saying "unlucky".
I know for a while there there was a thread going that was up to something like 15 robbed hits of Jay Bruce during the 2009 season. If even half of them, 7, went for singles, Jay's OPS would have jumped to .811 last season.

Brutus
04-23-2010, 05:48 PM
Ok, I think I've found the nugget I have a problem with. We actually agree for the most part. However, you've combined two things in this statement which are actually quite different.
1) The rate at which he makes solid contact (LD%)
2) The rate at which solidly hit balls fall in for hits

#1 is within his control and, we can agree, he needs to improve upon it. We also agree that a better approach (e.g. swing less often at bad pitches) will drive LD% up.

#2 is something out of his control. While he has had a low LD% in his career, namely last year, his BABIP was (and is again this year) lower than it should be given his current LD%. That is to say, his BABIP < eBABIP -- eBABIP being the expected BABIP given the type of contact the player has made.

This is the key point that you seem to be ignoring. Even given his current LD%, he's been quite unlucky. So, if you hold everything he's currently doing steady and simply return his luck to normal, you've got an .800 OPS guy. That is my point.

Now, if his luck returns to normal AND he improves his LD% like we'd both like to see, then he's got .900+ OPS potential. We just need to be careful we separate his skill from his luck and I don't think you've been willing to concede that his low BABIP has been the result of more than just a low LD%.

I agree with you on most of this (confirming your suspicion we agree for philosophically).

I would like to note, though, it's not that I've ever been unwilling to concede low BABIP is more than just low LD%. I agree wholeheartedly with that. On the contrary, it's the opposite. I feel taking all his batted balls into play (fly balls, ground balls, line drives, bunts, infield flies, etc.), his BABIP - while slightly unlucky - isn't as far off as it's been made out to be.

The method of xBABIP using just batted ball types (the quick and dirty version that is more quickly and easily calculated without benefit of the Hardball Times worksheet), would have yielded him 64 hits last season while in play - a total of 86. He actually had 55 (for a total of 77). That's an xBABIP of .255 (.205 actual).

Now, make no mistake about it, that's still a pretty big gap and one that is somewhat unlucky. I've never argued that whatsoever. But even if his actual BABIP were .255, his average would have been .249 with strikeouts and homers thrown back into the equation.

So yeah, I don't doubt he was unlucky. With those nine hits given back (obviously we can all agree that there are many formulas so it's tough to know how many it really should have been), his season would have been much better - I just mean it still wouldn't have quite been to hopes/expectations.

By the way... I also want to note that I recognize his OPS would look much better last year if he had 50-75 more points added to it from those nine hits or so. We're talking about .825-.850, so yeah that most certainly isn't bad.

I hope this clears up my position. I just believe that he's not making solid contact as much as he could (not just line drivers but also grounders and fly balls) because of his selection at the plate, and that's probably causing fewer hits to fall than would normally based on the aforementioned xBABIP formula (or any like calculations used by others).

Ron Madden
04-24-2010, 02:46 AM
Luck and BABIP have long been discussed when dealing with Bruce. On paper it does appear as if he has been unlucky over the past year plus. I can't recall much of his season last year but I do recall that he was often over matched. I wonder if someone/anyone has gone back and looked at his season last year, the actual season, not the results. It would be tedious and time consuming but it may shed more light than just saying "unlucky".
*note*

I am not suggesting that anyone go back and watch game film of all his at bats last year, just that I wonder if the game film would tell you more or less about "luck".

I have an honest question totally absent of malice.

How can we go back and look at his season without looking at all the stats that pretty much tell us the results?

Ghosts of 1990
04-25-2010, 05:31 PM
Great game today from Jay. It seems like its been so long since he had a 3 or 4 hit game. Keep it going. I believe he can at full potential be a guy who gets a lot of hits and doubles; not just a power guy.

Ron Madden
04-25-2010, 05:34 PM
Write Jay Bruce in the starting lineup everyday and just leave him be.

this needs to be repeated. ;)

Tom Servo
04-25-2010, 05:42 PM
Like a boss.

dougdirt
04-25-2010, 05:48 PM
Funny what happens when BABIP is around a normal range....


PA AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO BA/OBP/SLG/OPS BABIP
First 6 Games 20 19 1 0 0 0 1 4 .053/.100/.053/.153 .067
Rest of year 53 46 13 3 1 3 6 12 .283/.358/.587/.945 .313

REDblooded
04-25-2010, 05:52 PM
Like a boss.

LMFAO

_Sir_Charles_
04-25-2010, 06:00 PM
Like a boss.

Okay, when in the heck did THIS become his nickname? I've heard it in a few sportscenter highlights now too. YUCK.

Btw...I felt like a total doofus too, I'd heard the nickname about 3 or 4 times before I finally "got it". Sad, I know. Still a sucky nick.

On the bright side...he's STILL stinging the ball really well. I saw Doug's post a few posts up and it really does highlight his early poor luck. Keep it going Jay, keep it going!

fearofpopvol1
04-25-2010, 06:20 PM
Was very impressed with the way Jay looked at the plate today against a tough lefty. Everything about his approach was right.

VR
04-25-2010, 06:48 PM
Nice game today for the kid....against a tough lefty.

RedEye
04-25-2010, 07:57 PM
Okay, when in the heck did THIS become his nickname? I've heard it in a few sportscenter highlights now too. YUCK.

Btw...I felt like a total doofus too, I'd heard the nickname about 3 or 4 times before I finally "got it". Sad, I know. Still a sucky nick.

On the bright side...he's STILL stinging the ball really well. I saw Doug's post a few posts up and it really does highlight his early poor luck. Keep it going Jay, keep it going!

I think folks around here have been calling Bruce "The Boss" for awhile now. I kinda like it actually.

Hoosier Red
04-25-2010, 09:00 PM
Anyone named Bruce first or last has the nickname Boss.
As Boomer Esiason explained in 1988, "When we call for Backs On Strong Safety, we call it Bruce, because Bruce is Boss."

dougdirt
04-25-2010, 10:44 PM
Okay, when in the heck did THIS become his nickname? I've heard it in a few sportscenter highlights now too. YUCK.

Btw...I felt like a total doofus too, I'd heard the nickname about 3 or 4 times before I finally "got it". Sad, I know. Still a sucky nick.

On the bright side...he's STILL stinging the ball really well. I saw Doug's post a few posts up and it really does highlight his early poor luck. Keep it going Jay, keep it going!

I first saw Baseball America tab him the boss in 2005

HeatherC1212
04-25-2010, 11:57 PM
I thought Jay looked great during the game today. I was at the game this afternoon and he just seemed dialed in with having good at bats today. Those hits were solid and his approach at the plate was really encouraging. Hopefully he can keep this up and take that solid approach at the plate with him on the road trip. :)

REDblooded
04-27-2010, 10:54 PM
Really loved the patience Bruce showed at the plate tonight... 2-3 with 2 bb's and 0 K. Definitely looks like a MUCH more mature batter right now.

Ghosts of 1990
04-27-2010, 11:03 PM
Happy for Jay. Coming around a little bit. Let's see those up to dash slash stats since April 12

dougdirt
04-27-2010, 11:15 PM
happy for jay. Coming around a little bit. Let's see those up to dash slash stats since april 12



pa ab 2b 3b hr bb k avg obp slg ops
58 49 3 1 3 8 12 .306 .397 .592 .988

OnBaseMachine
04-27-2010, 11:22 PM
In the first six games of the season Jay Bruce went 1-for-19 with one walk and no extra-base hits. Since the 7th game of the season, Bruce is 15-for-49 with three doubles, one triple, three home runs and eight walks. His statline since the 7th game - .306/.397/.592 - .989 OPS. Oh, and he's playing Gold Glove caliber defense and running the bases very well. With the exception of the first six games, Bruce has played like a superstar this season. It's gonna take a long hot streak for his overall numbers to recover but he's playing exremely well right now. Let's hope it continues.

Will M
04-28-2010, 12:12 AM
agree that Jay has been playing well.

question: why not bat Jay in the #2 hole ahead of Votto & Rolen? he would certainly get more fastballs here than batting 5th/6th/7th. plus we would get one of our (hopefully/potentially) better hitters higher in the lineup.

dougdirt
04-28-2010, 12:15 AM
agree that Jay has been playing well.

question: why not bat Jay in the #2 hole ahead of Votto & Rolen? he would certainly get more fastballs here than batting 5th/6th/7th. plus we would get one of our (hopefully/potentially) better hitters higher in the lineup.

Can't hit lefties back to back dude.

Razor Shines
04-28-2010, 12:19 AM
Like a boss.

:laugh::laugh: Awesome.

RedsManRick
04-28-2010, 12:29 AM
Bruce is up to .235/.321/.441, .762 OPS on the season. Of everyday players, that's 3rd on the team behind Rolen and Votto. Better than anything else, I saw Bruce lay off both low and outside breaking pitches and changeups tonight. Looks like his approach is coming around.

Ron Madden
04-28-2010, 02:56 AM
Write the name of Jay Bruce in your starting lineup everyday and leave him be. He could turn out to be the best offensive player on the roster and win a few Gold Gloves along the way.

Jay Bruce is "A Ballplayer"

Topcat
04-28-2010, 05:18 AM
Write the name of Jay Bruce in your starting lineup everyday and leave him be. He could turn out to be the best offensive player on the roster and win a few Gold Gloves along the way.

Jay Bruce is "A Ballplayer"

Agreed he is a kid and he has ability to be a difference maker long term.:beerme:

nate
04-28-2010, 10:34 AM
Can't hit lefties back to back dude.

That gives me acid reflux.

:cool:

Ghosts of 1990
04-29-2010, 11:13 PM
A nice night for young Bruce. Multiple hit games in 3 of the last 4

REDblooded
04-29-2010, 11:43 PM
found this today...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gPZsn4CP1RU

Ghosts of 1990
04-29-2010, 11:57 PM
found this today...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gPZsn4CP1RU

Would you believe I know the guy who gave him this nickname?

RedsManRick
04-30-2010, 12:03 AM
Up to a .788 OPS.

BearcatShane
04-30-2010, 01:22 AM
Would you believe I know the guy who gave him this nickname?



Honestly, no.

Ghosts of 1990
04-30-2010, 01:31 AM
Honestly, no.

http://www.diamondhoggers.com/2008/05/deal-is-born.html

http://www.diamondhoggers.com/2010/02/baseball-show-interviews-zizzy-mane.html

A little background on it

OnBaseMachine
04-30-2010, 10:03 PM
Bruce is 3-for-3 with a double and 2 RBI tonight. As of right now, Bruce is now hitting .266/.337/.506 - .843 OPS. Pretty impressive considering how he started the season.

Oh, and his double was a rocket into the left field corner. I hope this is the real Jay Bruce we're seeing now. If so, this offense has a chance to be decent.

RedsManRick
04-30-2010, 10:04 PM
Bruce is 3-for-3 with a double and 2 RBI tonight. As of right now, Bruce is now hitting .266/.337/.506 - .843 OPS. Pretty impressive considering how he started the season.

And I'm guessing his BABIP is still south of .300 despite a rock solid LD%. The guy can hit.

reds44
04-30-2010, 10:10 PM
Bruce is 3-for-3 with a double and 2 RBI tonight. As of right now, Bruce is now hitting .266/.337/.506 - .843 OPS. Pretty impressive considering how he started the season.
That line is about where I thought he would be before the season started.

Besides hitting lefties, he doesn't have a weakness. Dude can field too.

OnBaseMachine
04-30-2010, 10:18 PM
Besides hitting lefties, he doesn't have a weakness. Dude can field too.

It's a very small sample size, but so far this season Bruce has an .875 OPS vs LHP in 21 atbats,

dougdirt
04-30-2010, 10:18 PM
That line is about where I thought he would be before the season started.

Besides hitting lefties, he doesn't have a weakness. Dude can field too.
Dude is hitting lefties this year (SSS!), kind of. He has an .876 OPS vs lefties, though its built on slugging (.304 OBP).

Degenerate39
04-30-2010, 10:21 PM
I'm glad I picked up Bruce when I did on my fantasy team

LoganBuck
04-30-2010, 10:21 PM
Jay Bruce was still on the waiver wire in my fantasy league. Just dumped Cameron Maybin for him.

He now has the curse of Loganbuck upon his head.

dougdirt
04-30-2010, 10:24 PM
I'm glad I picked up Bruce when I did on my fantasy team

I caught the ridicule in my league when he was one of my four keepers this season. What fun is fantasy baseball without your favorite players?

11larkin11
04-30-2010, 10:32 PM
I caught the ridicule in my league when he was one of my four keepers this season. What fun is fantasy baseball without your favorite players?

I missed my draft (!), but had to pick him up afterwards, considering he was the namesake of my team, the Bruce Almighties.

Degenerate39
04-30-2010, 10:38 PM
I caught the ridicule in my league when he was one of my four keepers this season. What fun is fantasy baseball without your favorite players?

Can't be as bad as when Jimmy Rollins went on the DL and I picked up O.Cab

dougdirt
04-30-2010, 10:49 PM
Can't be as bad as when Jimmy Rollins went on the DL and I picked up O.Cab

I am currently the owner of 3 Reds outfielders, but only Bruce has been playing lately. Stubbs gets a start when I have no other options for the day and I hope he steals 2 that day. Gomes hasn't had a single start for me all year. He is about to get dropped.

reds1869
04-30-2010, 10:55 PM
I've stuck with Bruce on my fantasy roster all season and now I'm glad I did.

REDblooded
04-30-2010, 11:15 PM
Sometimes the Reds fantasy love can kill me too... Like last season when I traded Tommy Hanson and Josh Beckett for Cueto in a dynasty... :thumbdown

Will M
05-01-2010, 02:12 AM
One thing that I have noticed is that for the most part Jay is not hitting weak pop ups to right field like he did so much last year. He is actually hitting few fly balls. Its either a line drive or a near line drive hard hit ground ball. He has been a bit lucky in that he is not hitting those ground balls right at fielders but there is a difference between a weak grounder 3 steps to the left or right of a second baseman & a hard hit shot 3 steps to the left or right of a second baseman. Both might be 'ground balls' but its not luck that causes the first to be a routine out & the second to be a hit.

fearofpopvol1
05-01-2010, 02:46 AM
FWIW, on the St. Louis telecast tonight, they made Bruce the Player of the Game.

Homer Bailey
05-01-2010, 04:57 AM
The reason I started the thread that I did last year (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=75819) was so that we could enjoy times like these when the hits fall in like they should. Although that thread may not say "I told you so", it was started with the intention that once they start to fall, people will realize how talented this guy is. Guess what? They are starting to fall. Couldn't be happier for the guy. He has handled this bad luck so well, he deserves all the praise that comes with the good luck.

And yes, I own JB in every fantasy league I'm in. I've believed from the get go.

Ghosts of 1990
05-01-2010, 07:51 AM
He is reminding me of Jay from May 2008 a little bit. Hitting things inside, outside, middle, up, down and away.... brad penny looked like he had absolutely no answer for Jay. He is a white hot right now, and i'd love for him to stay this way as long as possible. The team is better bc of him.

Ghosts of 1990
05-01-2010, 07:52 AM
Anyone else glad he wasn't in AAA Louisville for last nights tilt with the
Cards? :D

Big Klu
05-01-2010, 10:14 AM
He's just lucky right now.

Ghosts of 1990
05-01-2010, 12:33 PM
Hoping that Atomic updates that Career HR thread soon

LoganBuck
05-01-2010, 01:40 PM
He's just lucky right now.

Yep, you could say he is way overdue for some luck.

TeamBoone
05-01-2010, 10:46 PM
It was inevitable that he'd start hitting safely soon. He was already hitting the ball with authority... just right at people.

RedEye
05-02-2010, 09:25 AM
Someone mentioned this before I think, but one of the nice things about Bruce's current streak is that he seems to be hitting the ball on a rope to all fields. IIRC, that's what he looked like as a minor phenom as well--it just seemed that every time he touched a pitch it was flared hard and fast in the opposite direction. It's good to see that again after so many weak pop ups and lazy grounders recently. Methinks The Boss is back!

Ghosts of 1990
05-02-2010, 09:41 AM
His LD rate is over 22%

OnBaseMachine
05-02-2010, 02:19 PM
John Erardi article on Jay Bruce and BABIP.



But BABIP doesn't average out to .298 for very many individual hitters over a given season. It averages out to that for ALL hitters taken together over a single season.

Because, when it comes to individual hitters, luck enters into the equation. To quote my favorite all-time swinger, Ted Williams, "Luck averages out over a career, but not a single season." The Splendid Splinter didn't know from statistical analysis, but he knew.


full article:
http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20100501/SPT04/5020366/1071/For+Bruce++bad+luck+has+come+into+play

Ron Madden
05-02-2010, 07:08 PM
John Erardi article on Jay Bruce and BABIP.



full article:
http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20100501/SPT04/5020366/1071/For+Bruce++bad+luck+has+come+into+play


Another nice read from John Erardi. Thanks OBM. :thumbup:

Homer Bailey
05-09-2010, 05:18 PM
redreporter Over his last 19 games, Jay Bruce is batting .317/.427/.651 with 5 doubles, 2 triples, & 4 HR. Me likey. #Reds

http://twitter.com/redreporter/status/13688182441

Caveat Emperor
05-09-2010, 05:47 PM
Bruce's OBP is currently at .347 -- he's being much more patient at the plate, especially laying off bad breaking balls, and the results are readily apparent. He's walking more and he's driving the ball with some authority.

Ghosts of 1990
05-09-2010, 08:23 PM
Where's the power? He won't get to 30 HR if he doesn't get it going soon. I'm still not sold on this being his break-out year that I was hoping it would be.

RedsManRick
05-09-2010, 08:35 PM
Where's the power? He won't get to 30 HR if he doesn't get it going soon. I'm still not sold on this being his break-out year that I was hoping it would be.

HRs come in bunches. 2 HR in the next week and he's right on track. If he's at 10 HR at the ASB, I'd be worried.

Will M
05-09-2010, 08:43 PM
Where's the power? He won't get to 30 HR if he doesn't get it going soon. I'm still not sold on this being his break-out year that I was hoping it would be.

Lets compare Jay to two good hitters.
Joey Votto looks like a .300 hitter with 25 homers/year.
By comparison Adam Dunn is a .230 hitter with 40 homers/year.
I think Bruce is somewhere in the middle.

Dunn couldn't hit .300 if he tried. He is a big guy with a long swing who strikes out a lot. But when he does hit em he crushes em!
Votto is more your classic #3 hitter. He will never have the power of Dunn but overall (IMO) is a better offensive player. Don't get me wrong. With Dunn's ability to get on base via walks he is a fine offensive player. I just think Votto is better.

Back to Jay. I would rather see him focusing on being selective at the plate & hitting line drives than focusing on hitting home runs. Why? First of all I'd gladly sacrifice some power if it means a significantly higher batting average. Second reason is that I feel the power will come. Don't force it.
Jay looks to me like a .280-.290 hitter with 30 homers.
If this year he hits .280 with 20 homers thats fine by me.
Remember he is still just 23 years old.

what we don't want is a repeat of 2009 where he hit pop flies to RF & had a terrible batting average & OBP. to ask him to go from 303/470/773 to 360/560/920 in 1 year is asking too much IMO. progress is what i am looking for in Jay & he has certainly been a lot better hitter recently than he was in 2009.

Ghosts of 1990
05-09-2010, 08:44 PM
HRs come in bunches. 2 HR in the next week and he's right on track. If he's at 10 HR at the ASB, I'd be worried.

Yeah that's kind of what I've been telling myself about him and friends that are telling me he isn't a true power hitter. He has always said he is a line drive hitter, so to me the most important number I'm looking at is his LD rate % and his BB/K ratio. Both of those are decent right now.

dougdirt
05-09-2010, 09:20 PM
Yeah that's kind of what I've been telling myself about him and friends that are telling me he isn't a true power hitter. He has always said he is a line drive hitter, so to me the most important number I'm looking at is his LD rate % and his BB/K ratio. Both of those are decent right now.

Jay Bruce is slugging .553 since the first week of the season ended. He is hitting for a ton of power.

RedsManRick
05-09-2010, 10:17 PM
Jay Bruce is slugging .553 since the first week of the season ended. He is hitting for a ton of power.

Those 2 triples really help the SLG but don't stand out in people's minds as "power". As long as he keeps the ISO north of .200 I'll be happy, regardless of what kinds of hits get him there.

Ghosts of 1990
05-09-2010, 10:52 PM
Those 2 triples really help the SLG but don't stand out in people's minds as "power". As long as he keeps the ISO north of .200 I'll be happy, regardless of what kinds of hits get him there.

Can someone explain ISO to me?

RedsManRick
05-09-2010, 11:02 PM
Can someone explain ISO to me?

IT's just SLG minus AVG. Basically, the bases the batter gets beyond 1B. You could have a .450 SLG and be a really good hitter for average or be a low average slugger. ISO (Isolate power) gets you around this issue.

Here are some Reds as generic placeholders to give you an idea:
<.100 = Janish (<5 HR)
.100 to .150 = Dickerson (5 to 15 HR)
.150 to .200 = Phillips (15 to 25 HR)
.200 to .250 = Votto (25 to 35 HR)
.250+ = Bruce (35+ HR)

REDblooded
05-09-2010, 11:53 PM
I'm loving what I'm seeing from the kid... Working AB's in a professional manner, not trying too hard to be the hero... He's going to have to go up in the order soon... Where he's hitting right now, a lot of teams would rather avoid giving him too much to hit because he can hurt you with one swing... The other guys behind him... not so much.

REDblooded
05-11-2010, 11:38 PM
We have an updated line on Bruce since his struggles to start the season?

dougdirt
05-11-2010, 11:41 PM
We have an updated line on Bruce since his struggles to start the season?

Since game 7 of the season - .309/.400/.564

Ghosts of 1990
05-11-2010, 11:44 PM
Since game 7 of the season - .309/.400/.564

:thumbup::thumbup::thumbup:

He's looking more like a complete hitter or a .290 hitter then a power hitter to me anymore.

More like a..... dare I say, a Markakis-type? Maybe Jay Bruce at his best in the big leagues is like that.

The at-bat that sold me tonight was against the lefty down 0-2, laid off two in the dirt low and away, and then got his pitch in the zone and hit a 2-run line drive into right. That was awesome. Didn't see the triple. Did it almost get out of the park?

Will M
05-11-2010, 11:44 PM
Those 2 triples really help the SLG but don't stand out in people's minds as "power". As long as he keeps the ISO north of .200 I'll be happy, regardless of what kinds of hits get him there.

another boring wimpy run of the mill triple tonight. :D

in all seriousness i like the way Jay aggressively runs the bases. he has good but not great speed but he makes the most of it. he wasn't watching to see if his deep flyball was going out, he was hustling right out of the box! Nice work Jay!

REDblooded
05-11-2010, 11:46 PM
Since game 7 of the season - .309/.400/.564

don't have the other slash lines, but his avg is actually at .312 counting tonight's game... (i think i got that right)

Will M
05-11-2010, 11:46 PM
:thumbup::thumbup::thumbup:

He's looking more like a complete hitter or a .290 hitter then a power hitter to me anymore.

More like a..... dare I say, a Markakis-type? Maybe Jay Bruce at his best in the big leagues is like that.

The at-bat that sold me tonight was against the lefty down 0-2, laid off two in the dirt low and away, and then got his pitch in the zone and hit a 2-run line drive into right. That was awesome. Didn't see the triple. Did it almost get out of the park?

it was a deep drive to RC field. the right fielder ran a long way & dove for it but just missed it. it landed on the warning track.

OnBaseMachine
05-11-2010, 11:48 PM
:thumbup::thumbup::thumbup:

He's looking more like a complete hitter or a .290 hitter then a power hitter to me anymore.

More like a..... dare I say, a Markakis-type? Maybe Jay Bruce at his best in the big leagues is like that.

The at-bat that sold me tonight was against the lefty down 0-2, laid off two in the dirt low and away, and then got his pitch in the zone and hit a 2-run line drive into right. That was awesome. Didn't see the triple. Did it almost get out of the park?

Agreed. That atbat against the lefty was very impressive. It was one of Bruce's best atbats since he entered the league. After he fell behind 0-2, I thought "uh-oh" but he battled back to 2-2 and then lined a single to right field.

As for the triple, it was crushed. It bounced about a foot in front of the wall in right center. It looked like it was gone off the bat.

Ghosts of 1990
05-11-2010, 11:51 PM
And let's not forget, wheels stole a base tonight haha. 3 for 3 on the basepaths? Does he have 12 more in him this season?

dougdirt
05-12-2010, 12:13 AM
don't have the other slash lines, but his avg is actually at .312 counting tonight's game... (i think i got that right)

Unless something is wrong at BR or Reds.com, Bruce is 29-94 since the 7th game of the season started. That works out to .309.

Brutus
05-12-2010, 12:30 PM
That Jay Bruce isn't hitting home runs but has been successful recently is the most encouraging sign of all. We know he can yank the ball pretty hard and pretty far. That's never been the issue.

He needs to continue working on his plate approach, be able to drive the ball to all fields - not just right - and be more selective in which pitches he looks to hit. Lately, he has been giving some tremendous plate appearances and I finally see signs of his hitting to all fields (something his spray chart has not supported). I'd like to see him continue this trend and start hitting the ball out of the park to left field (something he's yet to do hardly at all), but if he keeps this up, he's going to be a star. He's looked very, very good recently.

Caveat Emperor
05-12-2010, 12:51 PM
John Fay: http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2010/05/12/notes-on-bruce-rolen-cueto/


Jay Bruce’s two-RBI single last night came off left-hander John Taschner.

Bruce’s splits are pretty even this year. He went into Wednesday hitting .250 off left-handers and .273 off right-handers. He has two homers off LHs and two off RHs, even though he had 49 more at-bats vs. righties.

Bruce came into this year hitting .198 with five home runs vs. LHs and .259 with 38 home runs vs. RHs.

Full post includes more about Baker having Bruce talk to Luis Gonzalez and Raul Ibanez re: hitting.

Ghosts of 1990
05-17-2010, 11:12 AM
Jay is hitting .308 since the 7th game of the season with an OPS over .900 in that time span.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?n1=bruceja01&t=b&year=2010&share=3.58#216-246-sum:batting_gamelogs

He's hitting a ton of line drives still, and walking a little more then he has previously in his career. Is it wrong of me to miss thumper-Jay? The Bruce that hits a ton of home runs and drives in more runs? He hasn't hit a home run in the month of May yet.

Brutus
05-17-2010, 11:19 AM
He's hitting a ton of line drives still, and walking a little more then he has previously in his career. Is it wrong of me to miss thumper-Jay? The Bruce that hits a ton of home runs and drives in more runs? He hasn't hit a home run in the month of May yet.

I truly believe he'll be a better hitter in the long run by not hitting too many homers early. He's learning to work the count, go with pitches and come up with important hits. Sitting around waiting for a 3-run homer, in my opinion, can be detrimental at times.

You're absolutely right about his line drives. He's up to 25% this year (from 13% last season). It's unlikely he'll sustain 25%, but if he does, he will very likely hit just a bit shy of .300 if he manages his strikeouts.

The fact he has just four home runs, but an iso of .246 is extremely encouraging.

I love home runs and I hope he continues to hit them going forward. But I'm actually loving this complete, well-rounded version of Bruce the hitter.

Homer Bailey
05-17-2010, 11:36 AM
I truly believe he'll be a better hitter in the long run by not hitting too many homers early. He's learning to work the count, go with pitches and come up with important hits. Sitting around waiting for a 3-run homer, in my opinion, can be detrimental at times.

You're absolutely right about his line drives. He's up to 25% this year (from 13% last season). It's unlikely he'll sustain 25%, but if he does, he will very likely hit just a bit shy of .300 if he manages his strikeouts.

The fact he has just four home runs, but an iso of .246 is extremely encouraging.

I love home runs and I hope he continues to hit them going forward. But I'm actually loving this complete, well-rounded version of Bruce the hitter.

His ISO is actually .190 (.246 was last year).

I love this version of Bruce way more than the 2009 version. The guy we are seeing now is the guy that we saw the first two weeks of his career, where he was hitting the ball on a line to all fields, and not just trying to hit home runs. What has impressed me the most is his eye at the plate. Although his K rate has risen a bit, his walk rate has increased a bunch, and I think he could end up OPS'ing over .900 this year.

Caveat Emperor
05-17-2010, 12:00 PM
He's hitting a ton of line drives still, and walking a little more then he has previously in his career. Is it wrong of me to miss thumper-Jay? The Bruce that hits a ton of home runs and drives in more runs? He hasn't hit a home run in the month of May yet.

If it means getting to "miss" struggling-to-keep-his-OBP-above-.300 Jay Bruce, I'll gladly take line drive Jay Bruce.

Ghosts of 1990
05-17-2010, 12:03 PM
I truly believe he'll be a better hitter in the long run by not hitting too many homers early. He's learning to work the count, go with pitches and come up with important hits. Sitting around waiting for a 3-run homer, in my opinion, can be detrimental at times.

You're absolutely right about his line drives. He's up to 25% this year (from 13% last season). It's unlikely he'll sustain 25%, but if he does, he will very likely hit just a bit shy of .300 if he manages his strikeouts.

The fact he has just four home runs, but an iso of .246 is extremely encouraging.

I love home runs and I hope he continues to hit them going forward. But I'm actually loving this complete, well-rounded version of Bruce the hitter.

I'm liking it but I miss the bombs. Just missed a few this weekend off Reyes/Wainwright.

He's reminding me of J.D. Drew right now a little bit. Maybe that's who Bruce is, and not an Adam Dunn type. I guess part of me was hoping his ceiling was higher then J.D. Drew--and it may very well be--but right now he's reminding me of a young J.D. Drew when Drew first was starting out his big league career. Not a bad thing at all I suppose when we look back on how he hit a lot of last year

RedsManRick
05-17-2010, 12:40 PM
I'm liking it but I miss the bombs. Just missed a few this weekend off Reyes/Wainwright.

He's reminding me of J.D. Drew right now a little bit. Maybe that's who Bruce is, and not an Adam Dunn type. I guess part of me was hoping his ceiling was higher then J.D. Drew--and it may very well be--but right now he's reminding me of a young J.D. Drew when Drew first was starting out his big league career. Not a bad thing at all I suppose when we look back on how he hit a lot of last year

Bruce is still really young. He just turned 23 a month ago. I don't think he'll ever sustain truly elite power, annual 40+ HR potential and a .275+ ISO, like Howard, Dunn, Fielder, Pujols, ARod etc. But there's a tier of guys between that and JD Drew.

While Bruce won't likely ever hit for the average of a guy like Braun, I see them as very similar power wise. Teixeia is another good power comp. You can expect 30+ HR every year with a lot of doubles and some triples as well -- an ISO in the .225-.250 range. I look at the season Jayson Werth had last year and see that as a typical Bruce season during his prime.

Scrap Irony
05-17-2010, 01:01 PM
According to Baseball Reference, young Jay Bruce reminds them of young Barry Bonds.

I'd take that pretty quickly and run with it.

GoReds
05-17-2010, 01:13 PM
According to Baseball Reference, young Jay Bruce reminds them of young Barry Bonds.

I'd take that pretty quickly and run with it.

Gawd, if that's the case, he's going to have to find someone to custom tailor his hats.

OnBaseMachine
05-17-2010, 01:16 PM
I've been most impressed with the improvements Bruce has made so far in the plate discipline department. In his first two major league seasons, Bruce walked a total of 71 times in 758 atbats and 839 plate appearances. So far this season, Bruce has already walked 18 times in 146 plate appearances and is on pace to draw 79 walks. His IsoD (on-base percentage minus batting average) is .093, which is very good.

The home runs will come, IMO. How many homers have we seen him hit this season that barely went foul? It happened at least twice against the Cardinals this weekend.

VR
05-17-2010, 01:36 PM
The home runs will come, IMO. How many homers have we seen him hit this season that barely went foul? It happened at least twice against the Cardinals this weekend.

I was going to bring that up as well OBM. 3-4 have been with 10 feet or so...he's yanked another 4-5 way foul.

As he gets his timing down and starts trusting his swing and using all fields....I think the HR's will jump in a big way. He's got ridiculous power in a pretty smooth swing.

TRF
05-17-2010, 02:45 PM
According to Baseball Reference, young Jay Bruce reminds them of young Barry Bonds.

I'd take that pretty quickly and run with it.

See who is the second most similar though?

WMP!

dougdirt
05-17-2010, 02:48 PM
See who is the second most similar though?

WMP!

That comp will no longer be close by the time this season is over.

westofyou
05-17-2010, 02:52 PM
See who is the second most similar though?

WMP!

Both are ridiculous.

TRF
05-17-2010, 02:56 PM
Both are ridiculous.

of course they are. the samples are too small, his season last year was marred by injury. And the actual stats aren't indicative of talent.

But its something to talk about. :)

Caveat Emperor
05-17-2010, 10:29 PM
Bruce's OBP up to .373 now, after a 1 hit / 2BB night tonight.

OnBaseMachine
05-17-2010, 10:41 PM
Bruce's OBP up to .373 now, after a 1 hit / 2BB night tonight.

And he's on pace for 85 walks. Oh, and his single tonight was a frozen rope to the opposite field.

Ghosts of 1990
05-18-2010, 09:17 PM
Two more hits today

BearcatShane
05-18-2010, 09:32 PM
He's just a ball player. The power and run production is on the way.

Blitz Dorsey
05-18-2010, 10:55 PM
Jay Bruce is very good. That is my definitive opinion.

Ron Madden
05-19-2010, 03:55 AM
Said it before will say it again. Just put him in the lineup and let him play.

Ghosts of 1990
05-19-2010, 09:23 AM
Since the first week of the season:

.319, .939 OPS

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?n1=bruceja01&t=b&year=2010&share=1.97#216-248-sum:batting_gamelogs

All while playing gold glove defense in right field

He's stolen four bases already.

His line drive rate is now at 26%

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9892&position=OF

Pretty phenomenal. Braun is at 19.5% this year. Votto is at 16.7 percent.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3410&position=OF

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4314&position=1B

Jay Bruce is scalding the ball (and to all fields, mind you) as hard as anyone this season and if not for a first week in which he was robbed like crazy he's be over .300 and a HEAVY candidate to get to the All Star game.

What you're looking at if this continues is a COMPLETE player, which is what you wanted in the beginning. So many including myself wanted a stretch like when he began his big league career.... no one can say it hasn't happened again because the above stats are not just a fluke but very real--that is over 33 games. He's possibly been better then when he began his career and it's been more sustained. No matter what happens from here Bruce has been very good for the last month plus.

Big Klu
05-19-2010, 06:20 PM
He's going through a lucky streak right now.

Ron Madden
05-20-2010, 04:10 AM
Jay Bruce will OK. The kid has too much talent.

Just let him play, he will be productive.

Ghosts of 1990
05-20-2010, 09:20 AM
Not hitting for enough power though. It's glaring, it's hurting us. We need Jay Bruce the thumper back in a bad way. He left 6 on base last night. Sure, there will be nights like this, and while he's hitting line drives and using the whole field the power and RBI have disappeared. Hasn't homered in May. This is the longest homerless streak of his career.

Homer Bailey
05-20-2010, 10:06 AM
Not hitting for enough power though. It's glaring, it's hurting us. We need Jay Bruce the thumper back in a bad way. He left 6 on base last night. Sure, there will be nights like this, and while he's hitting line drives and using the whole field the power and RBI have disappeared. Hasn't homered in May. This is the longest homerless streak of his career.

No, no, no, and no. 2010 Jay Bruce is an infintely better hitter than 2009 Jay Bruce.

2010:
wOBA: .358
OPS: .810
OBP: .365
LD%: 26.5%
O-Swing %: 21%

2009:
wOBA: .329
OPS: .773
OBP: .303
LD%: 13%
O-Swing%: 26%

I honestly can't believe that anyone would want Bruce to go back to his "thumper" ways. Despite his 1 for 19 start, he's having an outstanding year IMO.

Nasty_Boy
05-20-2010, 10:52 AM
The HRs will come... His ABs are solid and in GABP he'll get a few cheapies to make up for balls like the triple he hit in Pittsburgh. He looks comfortable at the plate, you can see him making adjustments on a pitch to pitch basis.

Brutus
05-20-2010, 11:21 AM
No, no, no, and no. 2010 Jay Bruce is an infintely better hitter than 2009 Jay Bruce.

2010:
wOBA: .358
OPS: .810
OBP: .365
LD%: 26.5%
O-Swing %: 21%

2009:
wOBA: .329
OPS: .773
OBP: .303
LD%: 13%
O-Swing%: 26%

I honestly can't believe that anyone would want Bruce to go back to his "thumper" ways. Despite his 1 for 19 start, he's having an outstanding year IMO.

Yeah I agree. Last night, and the first week or two excluded, he's having a much, much better season. He's a better hitter than before.

Last night he didn't need to homer. He needed to get base hits and the Reds win that game. Obviously it just shows that he's still prone to being overpowered by a good lefty, but I have a lot more faith in him now in those situations than at any point previously in his career.

dougdirt
05-20-2010, 12:19 PM
Not hitting for enough power though. It's glaring, it's hurting us. We need Jay Bruce the thumper back in a bad way. He left 6 on base last night. Sure, there will be nights like this, and while he's hitting line drives and using the whole field the power and RBI have disappeared. Hasn't homered in May. This is the longest homerless streak of his career.

Power is more than HR's. Like I said last time you talked about him not hitting for power, since the 7th game of the season, Jay is slugging .508.

Ghosts of 1990
05-26-2010, 08:18 PM
When is the last time a true power hitter finished a month without a single long ball?

I am SO disappointed in him thus far this year. He's left close to 50 men on base this month. I love the guy but can't explain it away. He's not getting it done.

pahster
05-26-2010, 08:28 PM
When is the last time a true power hitter finished a month without a single long ball?

I am SO disappointed in him thus far this year. He's left close to 50 men on base this month. I love the guy but can't explain it away. He's not getting it done.

.271/.374/.432/.806

That's an awfully good line when you consider that Bruce is one of (if not the) best defensive right fielders in the game. Bruce isn't perfect, but he's only 23. He's probably going to get significantly better in the slugging department and he's already VERY good at getting on base. He's not having a disappointing season at all.

dougdirt
05-26-2010, 08:31 PM
When is the last time a true power hitter finished a month without a single long ball?

I am SO disappointed in him thus far this year. He's left close to 50 men on base this month. I love the guy but can't explain it away. He's not getting it done.

I get so disappointed with posts like this. There are a lot of things worth moaning about with the team, Jay Bruce's lack of HR's in the month of May is not one of them. It seems like every two or three days you have a post complaining about Jay Bruce. The kid has absolutely gotten in done in May.

RedsManRick
05-26-2010, 08:40 PM
Pujols has just 1 HR in the month of May. Monthly splits mean nothing at all from the perspective of assessing a player's ability. I really wish people would stop using them.

Heck, Miguel Cairo just homered. I guess that means he has as much power as Pujols.

Cedric
05-26-2010, 08:40 PM
Jay is doing what Cincinnati wanted Dunn to do. Take a punch and judy approach up to the plate. He's afraid to let the ball get into the zone and drive it. He's looking to slap singles all over the place.

I actually am sorta kidding about the approach. I think he will be fine. Just a little lapse of confidence.

Homer Bailey
05-26-2010, 10:42 PM
When is the last time a true power hitter finished a month without a single long ball?

I am SO disappointed in him thus far this year. He's left close to 50 men on base this month. I love the guy but can't explain it away. He's not getting it done.

I forgot that home runs were the only important stat in baseball. :rolleyes:


If Reds fans think Bruce "isn't getting it done" then they need to take a wrecking ball to GABP and move the Reds away because they don't deserve an MLB team.

Clearly you are alone in this opinion, so I won't suggest that they bulldoze the stadium just yet.

BearcatShane
05-26-2010, 10:45 PM
Jay is just a good ballplayer. He plays excellent defense and has a high OBP right now. He's improving as a 23 year old and will only get better. Home Runs often times come in bunches. Jay will get his.

WVRedsFan
05-26-2010, 10:56 PM
I forgot that home runs were the only important stat in baseball. :rolleyes:


If Reds fans think Bruce "isn't getting it done" then they need to take a wrecking ball to GABP and move the Reds away because they don't deserve an MLB team.

Clearly you are alone in this opinion, so I won't suggest that they bulldoze the stadium just yet.

Bruce is the only option in RF. Nuff said. He hasn't sat the world on fire and as we've heard many times, he is only 23. My fear is he never learns to hit left handed pitching and drive the curveball. If he doesn't, he'll still be an avaerage player. Worse things could happen.

dougdirt
05-26-2010, 11:21 PM
Bruce is the only option in RF. Nuff said. He hasn't sat the world on fire and as we've heard many times, he is only 23. My fear is he never learns to hit left handed pitching and drive the curveball. If he doesn't, he'll still be an avaerage player. Worse things could happen.

Jay Bruce is already an above average player.

Caseyfan21
05-27-2010, 12:55 AM
Talked with a coworker tonight over dinner and he had a fun fact. Sports came up and I happened to mention I was from Cincinnati and a Reds fan. Turns out his daughter grew up and went to school with Jay so he has followed his career. The guy wasn't a big baseball fan but said he saw Bruce a few times in high school and he mentioned what a stud he was.

OnBaseMachine
05-27-2010, 01:09 AM
I've been very, very impressed with Jay Bruce's improved plate discipline this season. As of May 26th, Jay Bruce has 26 walks and is on pace to draw 90 walks this season. The home runs haven't come yet but I still think they will. He's had a lot of near misses this season. I've seen him hit numerous homers that barely went foul, and just last weekend he hit a double high off the wall in Progressive Field which would have been a homer in most parks. If he stays healthy, I think he'll finish the season with 25-30 homers.

VR
05-27-2010, 01:23 AM
I've been very, very impressed with Jay Bruce's improved plate discipline this season. As of May 26th, Jay Bruce has 26 walks and is on pace to draw 90 walks this season. The home runs haven't come yet but I still think they will. He's had a lot of near misses this season. I've seen him hit numerous homers that barely went foul, and just last weekend he hit a double high off the wall in Progressive Field which would have been a homer in most parks. If he stays healthy, I think he'll finish the season with 25-30 homers.


He has looked overmatched on quite a few at bats.....almost like he's guessing up there. More importantly, he's looked very poised most of the time. His overall plate approach has significantly improved, there is no denying.
Good point on the walks OBM. Once the league realized they have to throw strikes to get him out.....he's going to get a lot more #1's down broadway to hit.

fearofpopvol1
05-27-2010, 04:44 AM
His plate discipline is much improved. But I'm worried about how much of that he's had to sacrifice in the way of power to get there.

nate
05-27-2010, 08:37 AM
Bruce is the only option in RF. Nuff said. He hasn't sat the world on fire and as we've heard many times, he is only 23. My fear is he never learns to hit left handed pitching and drive the curveball. If he doesn't, he'll still be an avaerage player. Worse things could happen.

Why does he have to "set the world on fire" to be a positive contributor?

There's a wide range of possibilities even between "average" and "setting the world on fire."

Especially for a 23 year old.

bucksfan2
05-27-2010, 08:51 AM
I've been very, very impressed with Jay Bruce's improved plate discipline this season. As of May 26th, Jay Bruce has 26 walks and is on pace to draw 90 walks this season. The home runs haven't come yet but I still think they will. He's had a lot of near misses this season. I've seen him hit numerous homers that barely went foul, and just last weekend he hit a double high off the wall in Progressive Field which would have been a homer in most parks. If he stays healthy, I think he'll finish the season with 25-30 homers.

I don't buy the bolded part. Over the course of a season it will even out. You will have a couple of near misses as well as a couple of gift HR's. As for the foul argument, there is a reason the ball went a long way foul. Pitchers often throw pitches that if you try to pull there is no way you can keep them fair. Herrera did that last night to Jones. Jones hit a ball that damn near went into the river but was way foul. Its just a part of the pitcher/hitter dynamic.

I think it will come, I think his power numbers will increase, but when? Right now Jay is on pace for <20 HR's and < 80 RBI. Yea I know about the whole RBI thing but if he is hitting 5 or 6 he has the Reds best two OBP guys in front of him. Its time for Jay to start driving them in.

reds1869
05-27-2010, 09:20 AM
His plate discipline is much improved. But I'm worried about how much of that he's had to sacrifice in the way of power to get there.

Perhaps we as fans need to reassess what Bruce is. At the moment he is a good, very disciplined hitter with some pop who provides tremendous defense. He may rediscover his power stroke, he may not. But I'll take plenty just like him.

Ghosts of 1990
05-27-2010, 09:31 AM
I think the pressure on Jay is minimized because we're winning a little bit. If we were losing he'd be public enemy #1 for Reds fans, or close to it. I'm positive on that.

pahster
05-27-2010, 09:39 AM
I think the pressure on Jay is minimized because we're winning a little bit. If we were losing he'd be public enemy #1 for Reds fans, or close to it. I'm positive on that.

For what? Getting on base a lot? Playing outstanding defense? Hitting for less power than we'd like but more than most professional ball players can dream of?

RichRed
05-27-2010, 09:42 AM
For what? Getting on base a lot? Playing outstanding defense? Hitting for less power than we'd like but more than most professional ball players can dream of?

...at the age of 23? (Thought it bore repeating.)

Ghosts of 1990
05-27-2010, 09:51 AM
For what? Getting on base a lot? Playing outstanding defense? Hitting for less power than we'd like but more than most professional ball players can dream of?

I'm just saying that most fans are not griping about Bruce right now because the team is winning. If the team wasn't, they'd complain about the obvious, that his power numbers are down and his hitting with men on base is atrocious. Obviously I'm a huge Jay Bruce fan, but the only thing saving him right now is our team's record, and of course the fact that he has hit a lot of line drives using the whole field and singles and been a more complete player in taking more walks and laying off the pitcher's pitch.

Chip R
05-27-2010, 09:56 AM
Obviously I'm a huge Jay Bruce fan, but the only thing saving him right now is our team's record, and of course the fact that he has hit a lot of line drives using the whole field and singles and been a more complete player in taking more walks and laying off the pitcher's pitch.


Then chill and don't borrow trouble. Relax and enjoy and don't worry about what may or may not happen.

Falls City Beer
05-27-2010, 10:53 AM
Bruce has improved, but it's not insane at this point to doubt the Larry Walker comparisons. I think he'll be a solid producer if he stays healthy.

11larkin11
05-27-2010, 11:00 AM
Bruce has improved, but it's not insane at this point to doubt the Larry Walker comparisons. I think he'll be a solid producer if he stays healthy.

Yes, it is.

BTW, Bruce's OBP w/ RISP and 2 outs?

.455

They aren't letting him beat them, so he's working the walk and letting Gomes do the dirty work.

Gomes' OPS w/ RISP and 2 outs?

1.810
Let me repeat that

Gomes' OPS w/ RISP and 2 outs. 1.810

They obviously aren't giving Bruce pitches to hit, so he's laying off them, not chasing, and taking what the pitcher gives him, and lets the cluctch Gomes do the dirty work. Don't let your eyes over the past week deceive you.

Falls City Beer
05-27-2010, 11:09 AM
Yes, it is.

BTW, Bruce's OBP w/ RISP and 2 outs?

.455

They aren't letting him beat them, so he's working the walk and letting Gomes do the dirty work.

Gomes' OPS w/ RISP and 2 outs?

1.810
Let me repeat that

Gomes' OPS w/ RISP and 2 outs. 1.810

They obviously aren't giving Bruce pitches to hit, so he's laying off them, not chasing, and taking what the pitcher gives him, and lets the cluctch Gomes do the dirty work. Don't let your eyes over the past week deceive you.

My opinion isn't based on this last week. It's pretty much the opposite of kneejerk opinion.

OnBaseMachine
05-27-2010, 11:09 AM
I'm not saying Jay Bruce will turn into the next Larry Walker (though I think he's got a chance to be that type of player), but keep in mind that when Walker was 23 he posted this line: .241/.326/.434 - .760 OPS with 19 HR. Walker followed up the next season with an .807 OPS at age 24 and then a .859 OPS as a 25 year old.

11larkin11
05-27-2010, 11:17 AM
My opinion isn't based on this last week. It's pretty much the opposite of kneejerk opinion.

The stats weren't directed at you, just the first line.

Ghosts of 1990
05-27-2010, 11:18 AM
I'm not saying Jay Bruce will turn into the next Larry Walker (though I think he's got a chance to be that type of player), but keep in mind that when Walker was 23 he posted this line: .241/.326/.434 - .760 OPS with 19 HR. Walker followed up the next season with an .807 OPS at age 24 and then a .859 OPS as a 25 year old.

LOL You literally took the words from my mouth.

I was about to be in agreeance with FCB until I used a few minutes on the clock to look at this:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/walkela01.shtml

When I came here to post it, you already had me covered. Great minds think alike! :p:

membengal
05-27-2010, 11:19 AM
so if you see that, 32, will you chill on freakin' out over the homeruns?

Those will come. If this plate discipline is real, they will most certainly come.

Falls City Beer
05-27-2010, 11:20 AM
I wouldn't wish hitting in Olympic Stadium on any 23 year old.

Hoosier Red
05-27-2010, 11:24 AM
Yes, it is.

BTW, Bruce's OBP w/ RISP and 2 outs?

.455

They aren't letting him beat them, so he's working the walk and letting Gomes do the dirty work.

Gomes' OPS w/ RISP and 2 outs?

1.810
Let me repeat that

Gomes' OPS w/ RISP and 2 outs. 1.810

They obviously aren't giving Bruce pitches to hit, so he's laying off them, not chasing, and taking what the pitcher gives him, and lets the cluctch Gomes do the dirty work. Don't let your eyes over the past week deceive you.

I think this gets into where the Reds lineup is really clicking. And it's working in ways that numbers suggest it shouldn't.

But with RISP(and especially with 2 outs), pitchers have been trying to get Jay out with breaking balls out of the zone. Lately he hasn't been chasing the bad pitches which has led to a lot of walks.

If there was a runner in scoring position for Bruce and he walks, than there are at least 2 runners on and pitchers know they can't fool around trying to nibble with Gomes. So they are forced to throw fastballs, and I think if we've learned anything this year, it's that Johnny Gomes LOVES FASTBALLS. Especially if they have the unfortunate circumstance to come from someone's left hand.

Eventually this will even out which is why the lineup changes make little difference over the course of a full season. But right now, it's working magic.

Ghosts of 1990
05-27-2010, 11:28 AM
so if you see that, 32, will you chill on freakin' out over the homeruns?

Those will come. If this plate discipline is real, they will most certainly come.

Ok. So long as he avoids 0 for 15's and 1 for 18's you won't hear another peep out of me about HR

Ghosts of 1990
05-27-2010, 11:28 AM
And FWIW, Mr. Bruce has been in the big leagues two years today. That was a fun night two years ago to be at the park.

OnBaseMachine
05-27-2010, 11:35 AM
Yep, two years ago today Jay Bruce made his major league debut and went 3-for-3 with a double, two walks, two RBI, and a stolen base. That night is still one of my favorite moments as a Reds fan. Here's some video highlights of Bruce's debut for those interested:

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=2783590

reds1869
05-27-2010, 01:11 PM
And FWIW, Mr. Bruce has been in the big leagues two years today. That was a fun night two years ago to be at the park.

I was sitting/standing on the riverboat deck for a party. Man, what a memorable night. Ranks up there with Dunn's walk-off grand slam against the Tribe for best GABP moment I've seen in person.

Ghosts of 1990
05-27-2010, 02:02 PM
I was sitting/standing on the riverboat deck for a party. Man, what a memorable night. Ranks up there with Dunn's walk-off grand slam against the Tribe for best GABP moment I've seen in person.

I was there for that too.

Line drive off Wickman into the Reds bullpen.

reds1869
05-27-2010, 02:39 PM
I was there for that too.

Line drive off Wickman into the Reds bullpen.

That night will always be one of the purest, best times I had with my father. Just spontaneous joy and a hug as the ball cleared the wall. I'll never forget that moment as long as I live.

dougdirt
05-27-2010, 07:45 PM
Jay Bruce has a HR in May now and hitting .291/.423/.405 in the month.

Ghosts of 1990
05-27-2010, 10:14 PM
Jay Bruce has a HR in May now and hitting .291/.423/.405 in the month.

Looked like he tapped it 400 feet. I was happy to see it

OnBaseMachine
05-28-2010, 12:33 AM
From Mark Sheldon's blog:

"Two years ago today, I got called up. Last year, I hit two homers on May 27 and this year I hit one. May 27 is a pretty good day. Johnny was pitching too." -- Jay Bruce, who has 48 homers in 257 games since his MLB debut.

http://marksheldon.mlblogs.com/archives/2010/05/postgame_extra_eight_over_500.html

Ghosts of 1990
05-28-2010, 02:14 AM
May 27th is Jay Bruce day

bucksfan2
05-28-2010, 08:38 AM
Jay Bruce has a HR in May now and hitting .291/.423/.405 in the month.

I don't expect Bruce's numbers to be this good every month but I think Jay's development could be the bat the Reds were missing going into this season.

I fully expect his SLG to increase and don't think he can keep up a .423 OBP.

dougdirt
05-28-2010, 12:14 PM
I don't expect Bruce's numbers to be this good every month but I think Jay's development could be the bat the Reds were missing going into this season.

I fully expect his SLG to increase and don't think he can keep up a .423 OBP.

I agree. But if Jay ends up with a .280/.380/.500 season I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest.

Ghosts of 1990
05-28-2010, 01:36 PM
I'll be satisfied with .270/.370/.480 season with 25 HR and 80 RBI on a winning team. I guess that last part is the caveat.

You post those numbers and play in 160 on a winning team you're a MAJOR cog. You post them on a last place team and you're barely a footnote in the league.