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View Full Version : How many games will Rolen start in 2010?



Ron Madden
04-18-2010, 02:15 PM
Scott Rolen is out of the lineup again today. Give us your best guess on how many games Rolen starts in 2010.

I'll say 120 out of a possible 162.

WVRedsFan
04-18-2010, 02:24 PM
In the 137-142 range. He started 128 last year.

Ron Madden
04-18-2010, 02:29 PM
In the 137-142 range. He started 137 last year.


I believe Rolen played in total of 128 games for the Jays and Reds in 2010.

WVRedsFan
04-18-2010, 02:33 PM
Fixed my typo. Still think he'll play more than last year.

Benihana
04-18-2010, 02:37 PM
How about the over/under on him playing 300 games over the next three years?

Ron Madden
04-18-2010, 03:30 PM
How about the over/under on him playing 300 games over the next three years?

He might be able to go just over 300 for the next three years.

How many do you think he'll start in 2010?

flyer85
04-18-2010, 03:34 PM
sore back, before the season I thought around 120 but with his history and developing issues this early the Reds would be lucky to get over 110

TheNext44
04-18-2010, 03:37 PM
He might be able to go just over 300 for the next three years.

How many do you think he'll start in 2010?

I think your numbers are about right. I think this year he probably has a few less than 128, closer to 115-120.

But I also think that the Reds hold this view as well, and have figured this into their game plan.

One important point, even if Rolen plays only 110 games this year, he is still projected to be a solid 3 win player.

But another important point, this offense looks even worse than normal without him. I think it shows how important his acquisition has been, and how important it is for the Reds to pick up another big bat in order to contend.

RedsManRick
04-18-2010, 03:40 PM
I'd put the over/under at 120.

Ron Madden
04-18-2010, 04:09 PM
I think your numbers are about right. I think this year he probably has a few less than 128, closer to 115-120.

But I also think that the Reds hold this view as well, and have figured this into their game plan.

One important point, even if Rolen plays only 110 games this year, he is still projected to be a solid 3 win player.

But another important point, this offense looks even worse than normal without him. I think it shows how important his acquisition has been, and how important it is for the Reds to pick up another big bat in order to contend.

How have they done this?

TheNext44
04-18-2010, 04:18 PM
How have they done this?

They don't plan on winning as many games as if he were able to play 160 games. And I'm serious. They understand this is a problem, but one that they are okay with.

I assume that they believe that the Reds are better with Rolen at 120 games this season, than they are with any other reasonable option that they have at 160 games. I agree with them, but I can see how others could disagree.

Ron Madden
04-18-2010, 04:23 PM
They don't plan on winning as many games as if he were able to play 160 games. And I'm serious. They understand this is a problem, but one that they are okay with.

I assume that they believe that the Reds are better with Rolen at 120 games this season, than they are with any other reasonable option that they have at 160 games. I agree with them, but I can see how others could disagree.

:confused: I really don't know what to say.

TheNext44
04-18-2010, 04:41 PM
:confused: I really don't know what to say.

Just read the second part. You can dis-agree with this assessment, and there is plenty of evidence to support disagreeing with it, but it is logical, and a decision that MLB teams make all the time.

Joseph
04-18-2010, 05:00 PM
115 games.

Ron Madden
04-18-2010, 06:47 PM
sore back, before the season I thought around 120 but with his history and developing issues this early the Reds would be lucky to get over 110

Do you think it might have been a mistake to extend Rolens contract?

Benihana
04-18-2010, 06:49 PM
Do you think it might have been a mistake to extend Rolens contract?

Considering that is what allowed them to sign Chapman, no way Jose.

Ron Madden
04-18-2010, 06:53 PM
Considering that is what allowed them to sign Chapman, no way Jose.


They ended up giving Rolen more money in the long run.

I'm not sure how they twisted that around to being the reason they were able to sign Chapman.

Captain Hook
04-18-2010, 08:36 PM
Hopefully he plays in a bunch.I don't think there is any way the Pirates sweep the Reds if Rolen plays in those games.I'd even say that it's likely that things would've gone the other way with the Reds sweeping them or at least taking 2 of 3.

I've seen many predictions that say that the success of this season depends on this guy or that guy.IMO the health and availability of Scott Rolen is just as important as the performance of any of the young guys on this team.He's one of the few guys on the team that can deal with and make adjustments to just about any kind of pitcher other teams can throw at the Reds.Rolen is probably the closest thing to a real hitting coach this team will have all year.

Ron Madden
04-19-2010, 12:38 AM
Hopefully he plays in a bunch.I don't think there is any way the Pirates sweep the Reds if Rolen plays in those games.I'd even say that it's likely that things would've gone the other way with the Reds sweeping them or at least taking 2 of 3.

I've seen many predictions that say that the success of this season depends on this guy or that guy.IMO the health and availability of Scott Rolen is just as important as the performance of any of the young guys on this team.He's one of the few guys on the team that can deal with and make adjustments to just about any kind of pitcher other teams can throw at the Reds.Rolen is probably the closest thing to a real hitting coach this team will have all year.

I agree but unfortunately he can't help if he is unable to play.

So how many games do you think he'll be able to start?

Slyder
04-19-2010, 12:49 AM
Considering that is what allowed them to sign Chapman, no way Jose.

This is what I dont get. How did extending Rolen help them get Chapman?

Chapman is getting what 1 mil this year? You can probably find that much going into the suites in between the seat coushins. If you can't find a million dollars for 1 year SOMEWHERE in a cash cow like a baseball team, just close shop. I would say that because now you're paying Rolen for 2 more years you're LESS likely to sign the top flight guys cause you've already eaten into that money on Rolen plus other pay bumps (IE Phillips, Vottto, etc).

Ron Madden
04-19-2010, 03:01 AM
In the 137-142 range. He started 128 last year.


Rolen has already missed 4 out of 13 games.


Lets hope that percentage improves in order to meet you prediction.


:thumbup:

Roy Tucker
04-19-2010, 09:12 AM
Every time I've seen him play this year, he looks like his back hurts and he's stiff (things I'm very familiar with).

He's made the plays so far and he's a gritty pro and he'll grind it out with courage, but I agree with the 120 game over/under. Some things you can't play through.

mbgrayson
04-19-2010, 09:53 AM
For years, Scott Rolen has had more than his share of injury troubles.

Games/ PAs

2002: 100/438
2003: 55/229
2004: 142/593
2005: 56/223
2006: 142/594
2007: 112/441
2008: 115/467
2009: 128/535


Given that Rolen is now 35, with this injury history, I'll take the under if the split is at 120. Way under, unfortunately.

Ghosts of 1990
04-19-2010, 10:16 AM
121 Games.

It seems many here want to blame offensive struggles on the lack of Rolen in the lineup. While I don't think it helps and he's a professional, veteran hitter; I don't think he's the difference maker at this point in his career that a lot in our fan base think he is.

He's heavily over-valued by us, and while I like having RH guys in the lineup who can have quality at-bats like Rolen I didn't see him as a guy heading into the season who could help carry this lineup. On most teams with a good lineup he's a 6 or 7 hitter.

Ron Madden
04-19-2010, 02:50 PM
121 Games.

It seems many here want to blame offensive struggles on the lack of Rolen in the lineup. While I don't think it helps and he's a professional, veteran hitter; I don't think he's the difference maker at this point in his career that a lot in our fan base think he is.
He's heavily over-valued by us, and while I like having RH guys in the lineup who can have quality at-bats like Rolen I didn't see him as a guy heading into the season who could help carry this lineup. On most teams with a good lineup he's a 6 or 7 hitter.

That may be true but his replacements have been terrible. Check this out.

Since 7/31/09

With Rolen in the lineup the Reds are 31-16 (660)

with Rolen out of the lineup they are 7-21 (250)

Ghosts of 1990
04-19-2010, 02:54 PM
That may be true but his replacements have been terrible. Check this out.

Since 7/31/09

With Rolen in the lineup the Reds are 31-16 (660)

with Rolen out of the lineup they are 7-21 (250)

Wow.

Great point. I had no idea it looked like that.

Let me ask you this: where did you hear that stat, or did you research that on your own? It's stats like this that make the ORG a great place to be. That's worth bringing up to anyone who follows this team.

Ron Madden
04-19-2010, 02:56 PM
Wow.

Great point. I had no idea it looked like that.

Let me ask you this: where did you hear that stat, or did you research that on your own? It's stats like this that make the ORG a great place to be. That's worth bringing up to anyone who follows this team.

Lance McAlister's blog.

nate
04-19-2010, 03:19 PM
Wow.

Great point. I had no idea it looked like that.

Let me ask you this: where did you hear that stat, or did you research that on your own? It's stats like this that make the ORG a great place to be. That's worth bringing up to anyone who follows this team.

One of the player splits or gamelog pages at BR.com has info like this too.

bucksfan2
04-19-2010, 03:25 PM
Does anyone think that Rolen's back issues are made worse by the flu? I sure do. Anytime you have the flu you feel achy and not up to par. I think that only makes the issue worse.

Raisor
04-19-2010, 03:32 PM
Does anyone think that Rolen's back issues are made worse by the flu? I sure do. Anytime you have the flu you feel achy and not up to par. I think that only makes the issue worse.

What I think makes his back issues worse is that he's 35 years old and has had back issues for years.

Ron Madden
04-19-2010, 03:55 PM
What I think makes his back issues worse is that he's 35 years old and has had back issues for years.


Exactly why I was against the extension of his contract.

TheNext44
04-19-2010, 04:41 PM
That may be true but his replacements have been terrible. Check this out.

Since 7/31/09

With Rolen in the lineup the Reds are 31-16 (660)

with Rolen out of the lineup they are 7-21 (250)

If this holds true for the whole season, and Rolen plays in 110 of them, then the Reds will win 85 games this season, which is better than I expected.

KronoRed
04-19-2010, 04:41 PM
If we get 100 out of him I'll be suprised.

Captain Hook
04-19-2010, 05:38 PM
I'll guess 115 and around 450 ABs.

I also hate to think about what that 5-8 record would look like if Rolen hadn't played in any games this year.Not that he single handedly won any games but it seems like he has played at least a small part in all of the wins.Bad back and all he can still play some D even when he's not swinging the bat well.Not to mention he is one of the guys on the team that you can at the very least expect him to put the ball in play when guys are on base.Seems like he's a lock to go the other way with a man on 2nd.Small thing I know but was 1 of the many things that made Larkin so great.

Roy Tucker
04-19-2010, 06:13 PM
My back issues get worse if I sneeze or blink wrong.

Ron Madden
04-20-2010, 03:38 AM
If this holds true for the whole season, and Rolen plays in 110 of them, then the Reds will win 85 games this season, which is better than I expected.

I believe that stat leaves a ton of information out of the eqation and stands little chance of holding true.

My main objective in starting this discussion was/is to show the lack of forsight by the Reds front office concerning Rolen's issues with his back.

Seems to me they made the trade with very little consideration of the amount of games Rolen could miss due to those issues and never gave any thought to an adequate replacement for those games he might miss.


Rolen is an asset when healthy. At his age his health can not be counted on.

I'll duck and cover now.

Ron Madden
04-20-2010, 04:02 AM
I'll guess 115 and around 450 ABs.

I also hate to think about what that 5-8 record would look like if Rolen hadn't played in any games this year.Not that he single handedly won any games but it seems like he has played at least a small part in all of the wins.Bad back and all he can still play some D even when he's not swinging the bat well.Not to mention he is one of the guys on the team that you can at the very least expect him to put the ball in play when guys are on base.Seems like he's a lock to go the other way with a man on 2nd.Small thing I know but was 1 of the many things that made Larkin so great.



I would think his bad back would effect his defense just as much as it would his offense.

mth123
04-20-2010, 04:30 AM
I think your numbers are about right. I think this year he probably has a few less than 128, closer to 115-120.

But I also think that the Reds hold this view as well, and have figured this into their game plan.

One important point, even if Rolen plays only 110 games this year, he is still projected to be a solid 3 win player.

But another important point, this offense looks even worse than normal without him. I think it shows how important his acquisition has been, and how important it is for the Reds to pick up another big bat in order to contend.

So they grabbed Miguel Cairo to play when he's out? Sounds like they designed their plan to assure that they'll have a better winning percentage when Rolen plays.

Rolen is not bad and he's an improvemnt over EdE. He just wasn't worth trading the team's top trade chip and maxing out the payroll for. If the team was going to play those cards, it should have gone after a target that would have more of an impact on the line-up than a fading star who lost his power long ago and has a questionable ability to stay in the line-up. I still think Rolen would have been there for the taking in the off-season at a reduced price while the chips were cashed in on something else to fill one of the other gaping holes.

Spring~Fields
04-20-2010, 10:49 AM
Scott Rolen is out of the lineup again today. Give us your best guess on how many games Rolen starts in 2010.

I'll say 120 out of a possible 162.



Scotto Rolen
Games Played In AB
2004 142 500
2005 112 196
2006 142 521
2007 112 392
2008 115 408
2009 128 475

751/6 125 2492/6 415

Last 3 Years
2007 112 392
2008 115 408
2009 128 475
355/3 118 1275/3 425

425/4 AB - 106.25 games
425/5 AB - 85 games

Signed for 3 years
- 2010, 2011, 2012 - 6 + 6.5 + 6.5 + 5/3 = $8 million per year av'g



Rolen will earn $6 million in 2010, plus a $5 million signing bonus that the sides agreed would be deferred without interest, according to a source who has seen the details of the agreement.

The club, in return, extended Rolen's contract two years, through 2012. He will earn
$6.5 million in each of those two seasons.

Jocketty was widely criticized in July when he traded two highly regarded prospects to the Blue Jays for Rolen, but the GM repeatedly has cited Rolen's leadership and work ethic as justification for the deal.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4756999