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View Full Version : I'm worried about Stubbs and Cabrera



flyer85
04-21-2010, 12:09 PM
Stubbs offense is more than a little troubling at the moment. His contact rate is < 65% and his K rate is > 40% (if you want a comparison Dunns worst K rate ever was 34% and contact rate was 70%). There is no way Stubbs can have offensive success at anywhere near those rates.

Carbrera currently has a UZR/150 of -36. That is off the charts bad and this correlates with what observation has been providing, Cabrera isn't getting to anything. His defense took a huge step backward in 09 (not unusual for a mid 30s SS) but it has gotten even worse this season. There is really no way then can win with that kind of play at SS.

Brutus
04-21-2010, 12:12 PM
Agreed on both accounts. The good news is that now teams have almost exclusively started throwing offspeed pitches at Stubbs, so he's going to have to grow up real fast.

Cabrera, at least defensively, is probably what he is. He's hitting decent, but probably not well enough to justify the difference between his defense and Paul Janish.

OnBaseMachine
04-21-2010, 12:17 PM
Cabrera, at least defensively, is probably what he is. He's hitting decent, but probably not well enough to justify the difference between his defense and Paul Janish.

Cabrera is hitting .226/.228/.396 - .624 OPS. I think Paul Janish could OPS .624, and play much, much better defense too.

I'm willing to give Stubbs a little more time.

flyer85
04-21-2010, 12:17 PM
Cabrera has an OPS of 625 with an OBP of 228. There is no way he should be playing but the only thing that will drive him from the lineup is an injury.

Funny habit the Reds have of shooting themselves in the foot.

BTW, Stubbs deserves more time but he has zero chance of success with those peripherals.

edabbs44
04-21-2010, 12:23 PM
Since Cabrera's Babip is only 10 points higher than Bruce's, should we be expecting an uptick in his production?

bucksfan2
04-21-2010, 12:25 PM
Not too worried about Stubbs right now. I do think Dusty needs to move him out of leadoff for the time being. He has done a good job of working counts, but isn't making teams pay when he gets to 3-1, 3-2. If he keeps working the counts like he is his numbers will improve.

RedsManRick
04-21-2010, 12:29 PM
In the FWIW department, here are their PECOTA and ZIPS projections for the seasons which factor in what they've done so far this year. By comparison, I've also provided Dickerson and Janish.


Player PECOTA ZIPS
Stubbs .229/.306/.351 .224/.298/.336
Cabrera .264/.314/.366 .280/.331/.379

Dickerson .247/.335/.396 .255/.337/.401
Janish .215/.300/.311 .246/.319/.367

It seems to me that they sell Dickerson short. But in any event, I think it's increasingly hard to make the case for Cabrera over Janish given that Janish could very well be 20 runs better with the glove. Cabrera has indeed suffered from bad luck, but he's hardly a stud when he's not unlucky. For Stubbs, I'd just like to see him get his at bats and have the opportunity to adjust & improve.

Tom Servo
04-21-2010, 01:44 PM
Stubbs I'm worried about, but I don't think O-Cab's fallen off the cliff yet.

Sea Ray
04-21-2010, 01:58 PM
I'd like to see Stubbs get out of his funk in Louisville, not here. Send him to AAA and let Heisey try his luck with the big club. Stubbs is not even trying to hit the breaking stuff now. He's taking them even in the heart of the plate on a 3-2 count

VR
04-21-2010, 02:34 PM
Since Cabrera's Babip is only 10 points higher than Bruce's, should we be expecting an uptick in his production?

Cabrera's balls in play are more of the weak grounder to short variety....Bruce is at least putting consistent meat on his B'sIP.

I dreaded Cabrera's signing....and think he's costing this team some a trememdous amount more with his defensive ineptitude than he's 'potentially' providing with better offense than Pablo Janish.

TheNext44
04-21-2010, 02:41 PM
Funny, Dickerson got off to a horrid start last year, .197 .316 .288 .604, with a pretty bad K rate (not as bad as Stubbs) and many were wanting him replaced by Nix. At the end of the year, it was obvious that he should have been starting over Nix.

Not saying that this will happen with Stubbs, but just funny that Dickerson was the guy people wanted to bench last year and now he's the guy people want to replace Stubbs.

TheNext44
04-21-2010, 02:42 PM
And if Cabrera keeps playing like this for another month, it's a no brainer. Janish needs to start then.

LoganBuck
04-21-2010, 02:46 PM
Funny, Dickerson got off to a horrid start last year, .197 .316 .288 .604, with a pretty bad K rate (not as bad as Stubbs) and many were wanting him replaced by Nix. At the end of the year, it was obvious that he should have been starting over Nix.

Not saying that this will happen with Stubbs, but just funny that Dickerson was the guy people wanted to bench last year and now he's the guy people want to replace Stubbs.

Also known as the Backup QB syndrome.

Stubbs is painful to watch right now. My hope is this is one of his patented horrible slumps, and he will come out of it red hot one of these days. He was blazing hot, in spring training. Believe it or not he has seen breaking balls before, or at least I am led to believe that he has.

TheNext44
04-21-2010, 03:10 PM
At the beginning of May 2007, his first full year in the majors, Dustin Pedroia had this line:

.172 .294 .224 .518

Not saying Stubbs will win MVP next year, but he should come close to his projected numbers if he plays the whole season.

SirFelixCat
04-21-2010, 03:11 PM
Cabrera is hitting .226/.228/.396 - .624 OPS. I think Paul Janish could OPS .624, and play much, much better defense too.

I'm willing to give Stubbs a little more time.

Agreed on both counts, but w/ the caveat that Stubbs gets moved down to 7th or 8th in the lineup!

TheNext44
04-21-2010, 03:12 PM
Agreed on both counts, but w/ the caveat that Stubbs gets moved down to 7th or 8th in the lineup!

That would be a nice benefit of this slump, if it happens, which it probably won't.

Caveat Emperor
04-21-2010, 03:14 PM
Agreed on both accounts. The good news is that now teams have almost exclusively started throwing offspeed pitches at Stubbs, so he's going to have to grow up real fast.

Or join Jay Bruce, Chris Dickerson and seemingly every other "young" Reds hitter in the "I can't hit a breaking ball to save my life" club.

flyer85
04-21-2010, 03:18 PM
At the beginning of May 2007, his first full year in the majors, Dustin Pedroia had this line:

.172 .294 .224 .518

Not saying Stubbs will win MVP next year, but he should come close to his projected numbers if he plays the whole season.
Pedroia was an excellent hitter throughout the minors(.308BA and .392OBP) and never had contact issues. Stubbs is an entirely different animal.

TheNext44
04-21-2010, 03:22 PM
Pedroia was an excellent hitter throughout the minors(.308BA and .392OBP) and never had contact issues. Stubbs is an entirely different animal.

which is why I said that Stubbs should come close to his projected numbers, which aren't all that good, but better than where he is now.

membengal
04-21-2010, 03:24 PM
Or join Jay Bruce, Chris Dickerson and seemingly every other "young" Reds hitter in the "I can't hit a breaking ball to save my life" club.

True. But what has been alarming about Stubbs' recent issues is he is also swinging and missing at fastballs in the middle of the plate and center of the strike zone.

At the least, he should only be playing against lefties right now, and available for late-inning defense and pinch-running when righties are starting. What a lot of people on here were asking for from the Reds to start the year. In fairness, I don't think I was one of those people. But I am happy to yield a position I have taken in light of how things play out on the field, and Stubbs needs to be put in the best possible position to succeed right now. And that ain't against right-handers leading off.

flyer85
04-21-2010, 03:55 PM
which is why I said that Stubbs should come close to his projected numbers, which aren't all that good, but better than where he is now.
not if he doesn't decidedly increase those contact numbers

Brutus
04-21-2010, 03:58 PM
Cabrera is hitting .226/.228/.396 - .624 OPS. I think Paul Janish could OPS .624, and play much, much better defense too.

I'm willing to give Stubbs a little more time.


But Cabrera isn't a .624 OPS guy when it's all said and done. Assuming he hits close to or around his career .719 OPS, the question then becomes does Janish approach that? If he does, then it's a no-brainer that Janish should start. If not, how much do the Reds need him to hit to exceed Cabrera's overall value since we know Janish will save runs defensively where Cabrera is more likely to continue surrendering them.

OnBaseMachine
04-21-2010, 04:23 PM
But Cabrera isn't a .624 OPS guy when it's all said and done. Assuming he hits close to or around his career .719 OPS, the question then becomes does Janish approach that? If he does, then it's a no-brainer that Janish should start. If not, how much do the Reds need him to hit to exceed Cabrera's overall value since we know Janish will save runs defensively where Cabrera is more likely to continue surrendering them.

Keep in kind that Cabrera is 35, so he may no longer be a .700 OPS bat. I think he'll eventually get his OPS in the .660-.685 range but that's not enough to make up for his tremendously bad defense, IMO. I'd take a .600-.630 OPS and plus defense from Janish over a .670ish OPS and well below average defense from Cabrera. Neither one is starter matieral at this point in their career but if I had to choose, give me Janish.

TheNext44
04-21-2010, 04:26 PM
not if he doesn't decidedly increase those contact numbers

Correct. His terrible contact numbers must come down to his just bad contact numbers that he put up in the minors for him to reach those projected numbers.

Personally, I think the main problem with Stubbs is that he is still trying to figure out who he is.

He's batting leadoff, because the manager equates speed with leading off, but he has the power to be a #5-7 hitter. He's trying to make more contact and taking more pitches, but he's so big and strong, it goes against his natural swing. So he's the worst of both worlds right now. Too big of a swing, but taking hittable pitches like a leadoff hitter.

bucksfan2
04-21-2010, 04:37 PM
Correct. His terrible contact numbers must come down to his just bad contact numbers that he put up in the minors for him to reach those projected numbers.

Personally, I think the main problem with Stubbs is that he is still trying to figure out who he is.

He's batting leadoff, because the manager equates speed with leading off, but he has the power to be a #5-7 hitter. He's trying to make more contact and taking more pitches, but he's so big and strong, it goes against his natural swing. So he's the worst of both worlds right now. Too big of a swing, but taking hittable pitches like a leadoff hitter.

That is exactly what I am seeing with Stubbs. He is taking pitches, working counts, not swinging at good hittable pitches. I think the leadoff mantra is getting to him and it is inversely effecting him.

Brutus
04-21-2010, 04:39 PM
Keep in kind that Cabrera is 35, so he may no longer be a .700 OPS bat. I think he'll eventually get his OPS in the .660-.685 range but that's not enough to make up for his tremendously bad defense, IMO. I'd take a .600-.630 OPS and plus defense from Janish over a .670ish OPS and well below average defense from Cabrera. Neither one is starter matieral at this point in their career but if I had to choose, give me Janish.

I agree with you in that I prefer Janish at this point because Cabrera clearly is not the defender he once was. I still believe he'd put up a 700+ OPS, but his defense appears to be diminished to the point he has well below-average range.

osuceltic
04-21-2010, 04:42 PM
Cabrera has been on a lot of good baseball teams in recent years. He isn't necessarily the reason they were good, but it's difficult to have a good team with a bad shortstop. Of course, the question isn't what he has done, but rather what he will do going forward. However, what he has done gives him a long leash. He isn't going anywhere for the forseeable future. Nor should he.

Stubbs is a different animal altogether. I'm a fan--I think center field defense is important, and he's one of the best. I also love his speed on the basepaths. But the question always has been will he hit enough to stay in the lineup. I'm still not sure. He isn't as bad as he's started, but there's a lot of room between his current numbers and the minimum required to stay in the lineup.

Stubbs is fortunate, however, because I've seen enough of Dickerson to be pretty comfortable in saying he's a fourth outfielder. The Reds NEED Stubbs to make it, because they really don't have a viable full-time alternative (unless you believe Heisey is that guy; I'm skeptical). So he's going to get an extended chance to sink or swim. And that's probably the right thing to do. Stubbs has a history of extreme streaks, and he deserves a chance to prove this is just a bad one.

The thing the Reds must be worried about is the growing possibility that they don't have in-house answers at not only CF and SS, but also RF, LF and 3B. They have some decent prospects, but no blue-chippers. What if Stubbs, Dickerson, Bruce, Cabrera and Janish aren't the answer? The Reds don't have a SS anywhere near the majors. Heisey may be a tweener. Frazier's upside looks like a solid big-leaguer, but not a star. Francisco has big question marks. It starts to look pretty sketchy. I know Phillips, Rolen and Hernandez aren't the most popular players on RedsZone, but at least you know what you're getting. You can't say that for many Reds these days.

Of course, all of this is being said in the wake of a worst-case start for some of these players. It's way too early to panic, but there are reasons to worry.

nate
04-21-2010, 04:42 PM
Funny, Dickerson got off to a horrid start last year, .197 .316 .288 .604, with a pretty bad K rate (not as bad as Stubbs) and many were wanting him replaced by Nix. At the end of the year, it was obvious that he should have been starting over Nix.

Not saying that this will happen with Stubbs, but just funny that Dickerson was the guy people wanted to bench last year and now he's the guy people want to replace Stubbs.

It's the same people?

:cool:

In any event, hardly enough data to draw any sort of conclusion. One could find similar stretches for pretty much any player.

_Sir_Charles_
04-21-2010, 04:50 PM
I'd like to see Stubbs get out of his funk in Louisville, not here. Send him to AAA and let Heisey try his luck with the big club. Stubbs is not even trying to hit the breaking stuff now. He's taking them even in the heart of the plate on a 3-2 count

Personally, I think consistency is what both kids need. A Cincy-Louisville merry-go-round won't provide that. Neither will a demotion in regards to Stubbs' confidence...same for Heisey when he ends up going back down for the later Drew callup. If Chris forces the Reds' hand...fine. But he's not even close to doing that as of yet.

As long as Drew is still showing patience at the plate and not swinging at bad pitches...I leave him in there. He'll draw is fair share of walks and he'll see a boat-load of offspeed breakers that will only help improve his eye for the pitch. Waaaaaay to early to cut bait with Drew.

Cabrera on the other hand...time to see what Paul can do. We know what his glove is capable of, but his bat...there's just enough pop there to make me curious to see what some regular playing time can produce. In the 2 hole...not so much. :O)

Chip R
04-21-2010, 04:53 PM
Also known as the Backup QB syndrome.

Stubbs is painful to watch right now. My hope is this is one of his patented horrible slumps, and he will come out of it red hot one of these days. He was blazing hot, in spring training. Believe it or not he has seen breaking balls before, or at least I am led to believe that he has.


Agreed about the Backup QB syndrome. He's the most popular guy on campus when the starter is struggling.

Training in Arizona may have masked Stubbs' problems hitting breaking stuff. They don't break as much in Arizona. I love to see him on base since he's so exciting but he can't find 1st with a map and a compass. Hopefully Dusty won't stick with him much longer if he continues to have those problems.

_Sir_Charles_
04-21-2010, 05:04 PM
Some are getting their wish...at least today. Dickerson starting for Stubbs.

IslandRed
04-21-2010, 06:28 PM
He's batting leadoff, because the manager equates speed with leading off, but he has the power to be a #5-7 hitter. He's trying to make more contact and taking more pitches, but he's so big and strong, it goes against his natural swing. So he's the worst of both worlds right now. Too big of a swing, but taking hittable pitches like a leadoff hitter.

I think you're onto something. A guy with contact issues can't wait until two strikes to start his at-bat.

Rojo
04-21-2010, 08:08 PM
I think you're onto something. A guy with contact issues can't wait until two strikes to start his at-bat.

Me too. Dusty needs to get over his archetypes.

Ghosts of 1990
04-21-2010, 11:36 PM
In regards to Cabrera, how is UZR calculated?