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View Full Version : Can we move Rolen up to the 4 spot already?



fearofpopvol1
04-22-2010, 12:31 AM
He is outhitting Phillips in every way imaginable and has over his career. He's continuing to do so this season as well They are both RH hitters, so the lefty/righty bias should be irrelevant.

Homer Bailey
04-22-2010, 12:46 AM
I mean, we just know that isn't going to happen.

HokieRed
04-22-2010, 01:09 AM
Phillips is an absurd choice to hit 4th against RHers. Lifetime OPS: .699. I'd be all in favor of moving Rolen there or Gomes. Actually just about anybody would be better against righthanders. But as HB says just above, it's not going to happen.

TheNext44
04-22-2010, 03:46 AM
I mean, we just know that isn't going to happen.

I don't know about that. Baker has said he doesn't like hitting Phillips cleanup, but has no choice. I think if Rolen shows that he is an better option, Baker would move him to cleanup. But Baker has always been very slow to make moves like these. So it may take awhile.

Ron Madden
04-22-2010, 04:14 AM
Dusty is gonna do what Dusty wants to do.

He may tell us he has no choice but I think everything he does is exactly the way he wants to do it.

Spring~Fields
04-22-2010, 04:15 AM
I don't know about that. Baker has said he doesn't like hitting Phillips cleanup, but has no choice. I think if Rolen shows that he is an better option, Baker would move him to cleanup. But Baker has always been very slow to make moves like these. So it may take awhile.

I don't think that Mr. Jocketty and Mr. Baker pay too much attention to James and other experts on statistics, at least by their application and the players that they select and their roles that they put them in.

I don't think that they even believe in OBP or Slugging, or how to interpret it.

Topcat
04-22-2010, 04:16 AM
Rolen should be in the 4 spot and Bruce in 5th and Phillips should be in 2nd spot am I only one who see's that ?:confused:

Spring~Fields
04-22-2010, 04:21 AM
Rolen should be in the 4 spot and Bruce in 5th and Phillips should be in 2nd spot am I only one who see's that ?:confused:

Looks good to me.

I am game for anything over what has been since 08 forward. I am sure you are too.

mth123
04-22-2010, 05:33 AM
Rolen should be in the 4 spot and Bruce in 5th and Phillips should be in 2nd spot am I only one who see's that ?:confused:

Rolen 2nd, Bruce 4th, Gomes 5th, Phillps 6th, Cabrera 7th

Against LHP, swap Bruce and Phillips.

Ltlabner
04-22-2010, 06:56 AM
See: Deckchairs,Titanic

Razor Shines
04-22-2010, 06:59 AM
Yeah, great but the batting order only matters if Satan is pitching, you know he's going 6 every time out.

forfreelin04
04-22-2010, 08:04 AM
I wish the Reds starting pitching was good enough that Phillips batting 4th was actually a problem.

BCubb2003
04-22-2010, 08:35 AM
I wish the Reds starting pitching was good enough that Phillips batting 4th was actually a problem.

Yeah, the offense hasn't been too shabby the last couple of games.

edabbs44
04-22-2010, 09:37 AM
Rolen 2nd, Bruce 4th, Gomes 5th, Phillps 6th, Cabrera 7th

Against LHP, swap Bruce and Phillips.

Is this Louisville's lineup?

nate
04-22-2010, 10:54 AM
This sounds familiar...where have we heard this before?

:cool:

Homer Bailey
04-22-2010, 11:24 AM
I don't know about that. Baker has said he doesn't like hitting Phillips cleanup, but has no choice. I think if Rolen shows that he is an better option, Baker would move him to cleanup. But Baker has always been very slow to make moves like these. So it may take awhile.

That's what we call Dustification.

TheNext44
04-22-2010, 02:57 PM
See: Deckchairs,Titanic

That is true of all lineup changes.

Spring~Fields
04-22-2010, 03:11 PM
That is true of all lineup changes.

It sure is, especially when the general manager did not supply the team with the talent and production numbers to make a difference making, difference.

I was lead to believe and given the understanding on some other threads that he had though. Now I read that the pitching, defense and offense all at once came up with a mysterious anti-performance and anti-production issues. Very contradicting in one manner or another.

Time for me to go get some chili.

nate
04-22-2010, 03:28 PM
That is true of all lineup changes.

Not necessarily.

TheNext44
04-22-2010, 03:37 PM
Not necessarily.

Yeah, sometimes it's not the titanic, sometimes it's on good teams as well. :D

alexad
04-22-2010, 03:58 PM
Moving Rolen up a spot would be tooooooooo easy. Dusty does not think that way. Imagine what Phillips would do as a leadoff hitter.

bucksfan2
04-22-2010, 03:59 PM
I can honestly say that its fun to watch Rolen play. He along with Votto are true professionals both in the field and at the plate. Its a shame the Reds didn't get him from Philly years ago when he was available. That said I do enjoy seeing him play.

Oh and yea move anyone into the 4 hole as long as it gets BP out of there. Heck I would rather see Janish in the 4 hole than a swinging for the fences BP.

nate
04-22-2010, 04:01 PM
Yeah, sometimes it's not the titanic, sometimes it's on good teams as well. :D

I meant that a team finishing a couple games out with a non-optimized lineup might think differently.

nate
04-22-2010, 04:01 PM
Moving Rolen up a spot would be tooooooooo easy. Dusty does not think that way. Imagine what Phillips would do as a leadoff hitter.

Ground into fewer double plays?

:cool:

Ltlabner
04-22-2010, 07:53 PM
I meant that a team finishing a couple games out with a non-optimized lineup might think differently.

That's sort of what I was getting at. Moving Rolen to the 4th spot isn't going to suddenly vault us into contention. If we're going to be in the hunt then I'd say optimize that baby.

Don't get me wrong, Phillips swinging for the fences instead of just working to get good contact drives me bananas but in the grand scheme of things this seasons not going to hinge on a lineup change such as that.

cincrazy
04-22-2010, 07:55 PM
See: Deckchairs,Titanic

Agreed. I don't think it really matters. The offense is bad regardless.

Also, Phillips seems to pout quite often, and would probably regard this move as a sign of "disrespect," which may open up a can of worms in the clubhouse. If it's a move that would clearly make the team better, I'd do it anyways. But I don't think that's the case.

TheNext44
04-22-2010, 08:08 PM
Agreed. I don't think it really matters. The offense is bad regardless.

Also, Phillips seems to pout quite often, and would probably regard this move as a sign of "disrespect," which may open up a can of worms in the clubhouse. If it's a move that would clearly make the team better, I'd do it anyways. But I don't think that's the case.

My Philosophy on that is if a player won't do what the manager thinks is best for the team without pouting, than trade him. No matter how good he is.

TheNext44
04-22-2010, 08:10 PM
I meant that a team finishing a couple games out with a non-optimized lineup might think differently.

I knew what you meant, I was just trying to be silly. We've had this discussion many times. No need to re-hash it again.

But I wouldn't mind seeing Rolen move to cleanup, just so it makes it less frustrating for me to watch the games. :)

nate
04-22-2010, 08:34 PM
No need to re-hash it again.

What are you...new?

:cool:

Brutus
04-23-2010, 02:55 AM
The thing about optimized lineups is that they're based on optimized simulation and do not account for the actual situations that come up during the real games. So there's no way of knowing whether the optimal lineup is, well, optimal.

I don't think batting Phillips cleanup is optimal. However, since I know what the simulations say about the differences between the best and worst lineup combinations, I would imagine having Rolen instead of Phillips bat fourth is not even enough of a difference to worry about.

Will M
04-23-2010, 02:58 AM
i thought Rolen's power was gone after several shoulder surgeries. i even read that he changed his swing into a more line drive producing swing. i had him pencilled in for 10-15 homers. so far he has four and was robbed of a 5th.
so what is going on? is this a lucky streak or is this the real deal?

Ron Madden
04-23-2010, 03:47 AM
i thought Rolen's power was gone after several shoulder surgeries. i even read that he changed his swing into a more line drive producing swing. i had him pencilled in for 10-15 homers. so far he has four and was robbed of a 5th.
so what is going on? is this a lucky streak or is this the real deal?

I don't think it's luck Rolen is a heck of a hitter when healthy enough to be in the lineup.

bucksfan2
04-23-2010, 09:55 AM
The thing about optimized lineups is that they're based on optimized simulation and do not account for the actual situations that come up during the real games. So there's no way of knowing whether the optimal lineup is, well, optimal.

I don't think batting Phillips cleanup is optimal. However, since I know what the simulations say about the differences between the best and worst lineup combinations, I would imagine having Rolen instead of Phillips bat fourth is not even enough of a difference to worry about.

I wholeheartedly agree with the first statement.

As for the second part I think it would be better to put Votto and Rolen back to back. Get your two hitters back to back as well as the two hitters than can find 1b the best. I also wouldn't hesitate to go Votto, Rolen, Bruce in the middle of the order. I truly believe that Phillips needs a reality check and needs to hit like he did pre-Dusty.

Ghosts of 1990
04-23-2010, 12:14 PM
Dickerson
Phillips
Votto
Bruce/Rolen
Rolen/Bruce

for a first 5 in the order?

11larkin11
04-23-2010, 12:26 PM
Agreed. I don't think it really matters. The offense is bad regardless.

Also, Phillips seems to pout quite often, and would probably regard this move as a sign of "disrespect," which may open up a can of worms in the clubhouse. If it's a move that would clearly make the team better, I'd do it anyways. But I don't think that's the case.

The offense is 9th in the league (Majors, not NL) in Runs Scored. Its about time the pitching lived up to its billing, because right now Mike Leake is the only starter doing jack squat.

_Sir_Charles_
04-23-2010, 12:38 PM
The offense is 9th in the league (Majors, not NL) in Runs Scored. Its about time the pitching lived up to its billing, because right now Mike Leake is the only starter doing jack squat.

I just noticed that too. But you should factor into that how many games we've played. We've played more games than most teams. But regardless, nice to see the bats waking up.

11larkin11
04-23-2010, 12:58 PM
[QUOTE=_Sir_Charles_;2063554]I just noticed that too. But you should factor into that how many games we've played. We've played more games than most teams. But regardless, nice to see the bats waking up.[/QUOT

Runs per game, we're still 10th, with STL moving ahead of us.

_Sir_Charles_
04-23-2010, 01:12 PM
[QUOTE=_Sir_Charles_;2063554]I just noticed that too. But you should factor into that how many games we've played. We've played more games than most teams. But regardless, nice to see the bats waking up.[/QUOT

Runs per game, we're still 10th, with STL moving ahead of us.

cool. I thought it'd be a bigger drop off than that. Now lets get the pitching staff in gear and we're ready for a nice run. :beerme:

Tom Servo
04-25-2010, 07:10 PM
Rolen remains awesome.

fearofpopvol1
04-25-2010, 07:21 PM
Leads the team in Home runs!

TeamBoone
04-25-2010, 07:42 PM
As batting order is extremely important, why haven't the Reds EVER put more thought into it? It's like a record that gets stuck (vinyl, yes!) and you hear the same thing over and over and over. Do they not realize how important it is or what?

In addition, I was shocked yesterday to hear Chris Welsh say that Dusty prefers hackers at the plate over patient hitters. What the !

Chip R
04-25-2010, 07:55 PM
In addition, I was shocked yesterday to hear Chris Welsh say that Dusty prefers hackers at the plate over patient hitters. What the !

He certainly has got that.

BoydsOfSummer
04-25-2010, 10:38 PM
Runs Created Above Average.


NL RCAA

LEADERS
1 Ryan Braun 14
2 Chase Utley 12
T3 Rickie Weeks 11
T3 Josh Willingham 11
T5 Manny Ramirez 10
T5 Brad Hawpe 10
T5 Andre Ethier 10
T5 Adrian Gonzalez 10
T9 Martin Prado 9
T9 Kelly Johnson 9

WORST
1 Carlos Lee -10
T2 Aramis Ramirez -9
T2 Chris Coghlan -9
T4 Dexter Fowler -8
T4 Hunter Pence -8
T6 Gregg Zaun -7
T6 Melky Cabrera -7
T8 Pedro Feliz -6
T8 Troy Glaus -6
T10 Yunel Escobar -5
T10 Justin Upton -5
T10 Matt Diaz -5
T10 Ryan Theriot -5
T10 Andres Torres -5
T10 Kaz Matsui -5
T10 Rod Barajas -5

TEAM TOTALS
1 Dodgers 40
2 Brewers 38
3 Phillies 18
4 Padres 8
5 Nationals 7
6 Cardinals 5
T7 Diamondbacks 0
T7 Braves 0
9 Giants -6
T10 Marlins -7
T10 Reds -7
T12 Rockies -10
T12 Cubs -10
14 Mets -16
15 Pirates -18
16 Astros -38

TEAM BY TEAM--

DIAMONDBACKS
Kelly Johnson 9
Mark Reynolds 2
Miguel Montero 2
Chris Snyder 1
Stephen Drew 1
Chris Young 0
Rusty Ryal 0
Adam LaRoche 0
Cole Gillespie -1
John Hester -1
Conor Jackson -2
Gerardo Parra -2
Tony Abreu -2
Augie Ojeda -2
Justin Upton -5

BRAVES
Martin Prado 9
Brian McCann 5
Jason Heyward 4
Chipper Jones 4
Eric Hinske 3
Omar Infante 1
David Ross 0
Brooks Conrad -1
Nate McLouth -2
Matt Diaz -5
Yunel Escobar -5
Troy Glaus -6
Melky Cabrera -7

CUBS
Geovany Soto 4
Alfonso Soriano 3
Marlon Byrd 2
Tyler Colvin 1
Koyie Hill 0
Xavier Nady 0
Derrek Lee 0
Kosuke Fukudome 0
Chad Tracy -1
Mike Fontenot -1
Jeff Baker -4
Ryan Theriot -5
Aramis Ramirez -9

REDS
Paul Janish 6
Joey Votto 5
Ryan Hanigan 4
Scott Rolen 3
Laynce Nix -1
Juan Francisco -1
Ramon Hernandez -2
Jonny Gomes -2
Jay Bruce -2
Miguel Cairo -3
Drew Stubbs -3
Chris Dickerson -3
Brandon Phillips -4
Orlando Cabrera -4

BoydsOfSummer
04-25-2010, 10:41 PM
Runs Saved Above Average


NL RSAA

LEADERS
1 Roy Halladay 14
2 Ubaldo Jimenez 13
3 Tim Lincecum 11
4 Livan Hernandez 10
T5 Carlos Silva 8
T5 Mike Pelfrey 8
T7 Brad Penny 7
T7 Ryan Dempster 7
T7 Adam Wainwright 7
T10 Jonathan Sanchez 6
T10 Tyler Clippard 6
T10 Barry Zito 6
T10 Jamie Garcia 6

WORST
1 Jason Marquis -15
2 Charlie Morton -14
3 Daniel McCutchen -13
T4 Aaron Harang -10
T4 Doug Davis -10
T6 John Maine -8
T6 Bronson Arroyo -8
T8 Jo-Jo Reyes -7
T8 Vicente Padilla -7
T8 Hayden Penn -7
T8 Nick Masset -7

TEAM TOTALS
1 Giants 25
T2 Rockies 21
T2 Cardinals 21
4 Mets 15
T5 Phillies 14
T5 Padres 14
7 Cubs 13
8 Marlins 10
9 Astros 2
10 Braves 0
11 Diamondbacks -5
12 Brewers -16
13 Nationals -18
14 Dodgers -22
15 Reds -32
16 Pirates -43

TEAM BY TEAM--

DIAMONDBACKS
Edwin Jackson 3
Kris Benson 2
Rodrigo Lopez 2
Leo Rosales 2
Blaine Boyer 1
Dan Haren -1
Ian Kennedy -1
Jordan Norberto -1
Juan Gutierrez -1
Esmerling Vasquez -1
Aaron Heilman -2
Chad Qualls -4
Bob Howry -4

BRAVES
Jesse Chavez 3
Jonathan Venters 3
Tim Hudson 2
Eric O'Flaherty 2
Tommy Hanson 2
Takashi Saito 1
Peter Moylan 1
Billy Wagner 1
Kris Medlen 0
Kenshin Kawakami -1
Derek Lowe -3
Jair Jurrjens -4
Jo-Jo Reyes -7

CUBS
Carlos Silva 8
Ryan Dempster 7
Randy Wells 5
Tom Gorzelanny 4
Carlos Marmol 4
Jim Russell 1
Sean Marshall 1
Justin Berg 0
Jeff Gray 0
John Grabow -3
Esmailin Caridad -3
Jeff Samardzija -5
Carlos Zambrano -6

REDS
Arthur Rhodes 2
Daniel Ray Herrera 1
Mike Leake 1
Francisco Cordero 1
Carlos Fisher 0
Mike Lincoln 0
Micah Owings 0
Johnny Cueto -1
Homer Bailey -5
Logan Ondrusek -6
Nick Masset -7
Bronson Arroyo -8
Aaron Harang -10

Ron Madden
04-26-2010, 02:02 AM
Phillips 296/370/666

Rolen 367/604/970

Dusty still claims he has no other choice but to keep Phillips hitting 4th.


:confused:

Tom Servo
04-26-2010, 03:02 AM
Phillips 296/370/666

Rolen 367/604/970

Dusty still claims he has no other choice but to keep Phillips hitting 4th.


:confused:
http://www.midwestsportsfans.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/dusty-baker-cincinnati-reds.jpg

dougdirt
04-26-2010, 03:08 AM
The problem is, Dusty lost his dice.... can't make line up changes without them.

Spring~Fields
04-26-2010, 03:13 AM
Career OPS Current OPS L 3 Yr. OPS
Joey Votto .921 .885 .910
Scott Rolen .868 .970 .792
C. Dickerson .799 .579 .776
Jonny Gomes .797 .651 .803
Jay Bruce .760 .718 .722
B. Phillips .747 .666 .831
R. Hernandez .742 .648 .714
Ryan Hanigan .739 1.226 .696
O. Cabrera .719 .640 .729
Drew Stubbs .712 .518 .787
Laynce Nix .696 .657 .582
Miguel Cairo .670 .222 .655
Paul Janish .608 1.127 .598

B. Phillips .747 .666 .831
C. Dickerson .799 .579 .776
Scott Rolen .868 .970 .792
Joey Votto .921 .885 .910
Jay Bruce .760 .718 .722
R. Hernandez .742 .648 .714
O. Cabrera .719 .640 .729
Drew Stubbs .712 .518 .787

Chip R
04-26-2010, 10:22 AM
The problem is, Dusty lost his dice.... can't make line up changes without them.

Like he'd make changes with them?

CTA513
04-27-2010, 05:22 PM
Rolen is batting 4th tonight.

Homer Bailey
04-27-2010, 05:23 PM
I mean, we just know that isn't going to happen.

How's it feel to be wrong you idiot?

Phillips in the 2 spot, and Rolen in the 4 spot tonight. Have to say I like it.

Captain Hook
04-27-2010, 05:27 PM
Phillips in the 2 spot, and Rolen in the 4 spot tonight. Have to say I like it.

Probably just Dusty's way of revolting since he didn't get the extension he asked for.

Strikes Out Looking
04-27-2010, 05:54 PM
Dusty reading Redszone on his day off!

RedsManRick
04-27-2010, 06:21 PM
Call me a cynic, but when I saw the lineup the first things I thought were "great, Phillips even higher in the lineup against a righty" and "Shame Dusty can't flip Stubbs and Hanigan to make use of that OBP"

It seems that Rolen batting cleanup is as much about demoting and the fallout from that as anything else. It would have been easy enough to just flip Rolen and Phillips and against RHP.

dougdirt
04-27-2010, 06:36 PM
Call me a cynic, but when I saw the lineup the first things I thought were "great, Phillips even higher in the lineup against a righty" and "Shame Dusty can't flip Stubbs and Hanigan to make use of that OBP"

It seems that Rolen batting cleanup is as much about demoting and the fallout from that as anything else. It would have been easy enough to just flip Rolen and Phillips and against RHP.

I had those same thoughts Rick, but I am hoping that its a start. And to be honest, Phillips discipline this season has been pretty good, especially for him. I don't doubt he will start to hit it where they aren't.... I just hope the walk rate stays around 9-10% like it is now.

RedsManRick
04-27-2010, 06:41 PM
I had those same thoughts Rick, but I am hoping that its a start. And to be honest, Phillips discipline this season has been pretty good, especially for him. I don't doubt he will start to hit it where they aren't.... I just hope the walk rate stays around 9-10% like it is now.

Yeah, from just observation he seems to be having better PA against RHP this year than in the past. For his career he's 3:1 K/BB w/ a .150 ISO against RHP and and 2:1 & .200 vs LHP.

While its obviously quite early, the ratio (11:7) and ISO (.185) against RHP are promising. Now we just need that crazy low .195 BABIP to regress.

Though I'm not sure how predictive it is (probably not all), he did show improvement in his OPS split last year (.140) compared to '08 (.268) and '07 (.247).

Spring~Fields
04-27-2010, 07:26 PM
How's it feel to be wrong you idiot?

Phillips in the 2 spot, and Rolen in the 4 spot tonight. Have to say I like it.

We have seen one day moves before and got our hopes up for steps in a different direction, won't surprise any of us if it is back to business as usual tomorrow.

GAC
04-28-2010, 06:28 AM
Phillips moved to No. 2 in lineup shuffle

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100427&content_id=9617252&notebook_id=9617272&vkey=notebook_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

HOUSTON -- With his club's offense spinning its wheels and a few hitters going nowhere fast, Reds manager Dusty Baker opened the hood and tried to tinker with his lineup.

In Tuesday's series opener vs. the Astros, struggling Brandon Phillips was moved up from fourth to the No. 2 spot. Orlando Cabrera, the Reds' leader in RBIs, was shifted from second to sixth. And usual fifth hitter Scott Rolen moved into the cleanup spot.

"I'm just trying to figure out a way to get Brandon started, and maybe hitting in front of Joey [Votto] will help," Baker said. "Rolen has been good. They've been pitching around Joey lately, throwing him tough pitches. Cabrera has been real good in the clutch driving in runs."

Baker called both Phillips and Cabrera into his office on Tuesday afternoon to inform them of the changes.

"He asked me how I felt hitting sixth," said Cabrera. "I said, 'Whatever you decide to do, I don't care.' It's only for one reason -- to see if it works, to do something different."

-----------

Too bad he didn't call Hanigan into his office and ask him how he felt about batting 2nd. I mean, in 2009, in 90 games, he only put up a .361 OB%. And he ain't doing to shabby to start this season off either.

That's the problem with Baker. He has this traditionalist mindset that is a mental block. He wants to try and jump start this offense, but he can't be inventive enough to move Hanigan because catchers bat down in the order. Irregardless of the fact that so far this season (12 games), the guy has 14 hits, 10 RBIs, a .559 OB%, .690 SLG%, and hitting .483.

And that 2 hit, 3 RBI performance last night will cement him in the #8 spot in Baker's mind. :rolleyes: