PDA

View Full Version : Thursday 4/22/10 Minor League Updates



dougdirt
04-22-2010, 06:30 PM
Carolina starts a double header at 5:45
Everyone else plays at 7:00.
Chapman for Louisville
Cochran for Carolina
TBA for Carolina in game 2
Webb for Lynchburg
Johnson for Dayton

dougdirt
04-22-2010, 06:48 PM
Carolina's Starting line up
Negron SS
Kahaulelio 3B
Alonso 1B
Terrero RF
Phipps CF
Henry LF
Castro 2B
Denove C
Cochran P

mace
04-22-2010, 06:53 PM
I'd expect Terrero to explode at any moment, but he seems to be on the same program as Frazier, Francisco, Balentien, Burke, Anderson . . .

OnBaseMachine
04-22-2010, 07:01 PM
Alonso walked in his first plate appearance. That's now 9 BB/8 K in 41 atbats.

dougdirt
04-22-2010, 07:16 PM
Carolina down 1-0.

GOYA
04-22-2010, 07:27 PM
Burke RF
Heisey CF
Dorn 1B
Francisco 3B
Cozart SS
Valaika 2B
Frazier LF
Castillo C

Chapman P

GOYA
04-22-2010, 07:40 PM
Viola was claimed and is with the Norfolk Tides
Fisher called up, Ondrusek sent down

GOYA
04-22-2010, 07:42 PM
Reliever Jeff Karstens will be starting for Indy tonight

OnBaseMachine
04-22-2010, 07:51 PM
Alonso is 1-for-1 with a walk.

dougdirt
04-22-2010, 07:54 PM
Carolina is now down 2-0 in the 4th.

dougdirt
04-22-2010, 08:01 PM
Anyone else having problems with Milb.tv?

hmbarnitz
04-22-2010, 08:09 PM
Anyone else having problems with Milb.tv?

Yep, I'm getting this: We are experiencing technical difficulty which should be resolved shortly....

OnBaseMachine
04-22-2010, 08:19 PM
Chapman walks Tabata to begin the inning and then picks him off. He struckout the next batter and then gives up a two out single to Pedro Alvarez.

OnBaseMachine
04-22-2010, 08:22 PM
Sigh. Another walk. I was hoping for a dominant outing tonight by Chapman - Reds fans desperately need some good news. When it rains it pours.

OnBaseMachine
04-22-2010, 08:25 PM
Chapman: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 2 K, 27 pitches

dougdirt
04-22-2010, 08:29 PM
According to GameDay, Yonder Alonso just grounded out sharply to center field. Hopefully that is an input error.

dougdirt
04-22-2010, 08:31 PM
Lynchburg is down 2-0 early. Travis Webb struck out 3, allowed 3 hits and 2 runs in the first.

dougdirt
04-22-2010, 08:40 PM
According to GameDay, Yonder Alonso just grounded out sharply to center field. Hopefully that is an input error.

It was an input error. Alonso is 2-2 with a walk.

OnBaseMachine
04-22-2010, 08:42 PM
Chapman: 2 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 4 K

dougdirt
04-22-2010, 08:44 PM
Dayton is down 1-0 in the 3rd inning.

dougdirt
04-22-2010, 08:46 PM
Carolina is tied at 3 in the 7th.

dougdirt
04-22-2010, 08:52 PM
Carolina is now down 4-3 in the 7th (final inning since there is a double header).

OnBaseMachine
04-22-2010, 08:52 PM
Chapman just struckout Pedro Alvarez on 3 pitches.

OnBaseMachine
04-22-2010, 08:54 PM
Two out walk to Steven Pearce. Four walks already. He obviously has to improve in the control department.

dougdirt
04-22-2010, 08:55 PM
Dayton ties it up at 1 with a Henry Rodriguez single then steal and was driven in on an Andrew Means single.

dougdirt
04-22-2010, 08:56 PM
Jordan Smith is struggling. Carolina now down 7-3 in the final frame.

OnBaseMachine
04-22-2010, 08:56 PM
Chapman: 3 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 5 K

mrpotamus
04-22-2010, 09:01 PM
Has Chapman been any more pitch efficient since the first inning?

OnBaseMachine
04-22-2010, 09:04 PM
Has Chapman been any more pitch efficient since the first inning?

27 pitching in the first inning, 24 in the second inning, and 15 pitches in the third inning.

HokieRed
04-22-2010, 09:04 PM
It was an input error. Alonso is 2-2 with a walk.

Is it too early to speculate on the Cinti arrival date?

dougdirt
04-22-2010, 09:07 PM
Dayton is now tied at 2. Chris Richburg has a solo HR.

dougdirt
04-22-2010, 09:08 PM
Is it too early to speculate on the Cinti arrival date?

To speculate, no. To be somewhat accurate, yes.

Edd Roush
04-22-2010, 09:08 PM
Juan Francisco with a double. Cozart up to bat with one out.

Edd Roush
04-22-2010, 09:12 PM
Cozart grounds out and Valaika knocks Francisco home. Valaika hitting .381 this year.

Edd Roush
04-22-2010, 09:16 PM
Frazier gets a hit and Castillo flies out to end the inning.

Edd Roush
04-22-2010, 09:18 PM
Chapman induces a groundout to start the fourth inning.

OnBaseMachine
04-22-2010, 09:18 PM
Three pitch groundout to begin the 4th inning for Chapman.

OnBaseMachine
04-22-2010, 09:19 PM
Three pitch K. Two outs. Strikeout #6.

OnBaseMachine
04-22-2010, 09:22 PM
Two out single followed by another strikeout. 10 pitch inning for Chapman.

4 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 7 K, 76 pitches.

dougdirt
04-22-2010, 09:25 PM
Carolina lost game 1, 7-3.

OnBaseMachine
04-22-2010, 09:27 PM
Chapman just singled. He's 1-for-2.

OnBaseMachine
04-22-2010, 09:32 PM
Chapman gets a two pitch groundout to begin the 5th inning.

OnBaseMachine
04-22-2010, 09:33 PM
Another two pitch out. Two quick outs.

GOYA
04-22-2010, 09:34 PM
Here's a link to the box if someone wants it.

It's still screwed up. Like the video for all the games tonight

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=t416&t=g_box&gid=2010_04_22_louaaa_indaaa_1

OnBaseMachine
04-22-2010, 09:34 PM
And now a two out walk to Alvarez. Sigh.

Edd Roush
04-22-2010, 09:36 PM
And now a two out walk to Alvarez. Sigh.

Can you really blame a guy for walking a superstar with two outs and no one on base?

GOYA
04-22-2010, 09:36 PM
Player IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA
Chapman 5.0 3 1 0 5 7 0 0.61

Pitches-strikes: Chapman 88-50 - 57%
Groundouts-flyouts: Chapman 5-1

OnBaseMachine
04-22-2010, 09:36 PM
Chapman: 5 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 5 BB, 7 K, 5 GO/1 FO, 88 pitches

Edd Roush
04-22-2010, 09:39 PM
I would end Chapman's night here.

OnBaseMachine
04-22-2010, 09:39 PM
Chapman's pitch count by inning:

1st - 27
2nd - 24
3rd - 15
4th - 10
5th - 12

GOYA
04-22-2010, 09:39 PM
Francisco HR

4-1 Bats

GOYA
04-22-2010, 09:40 PM
Indy pitcher Steven Jackson is ejected after hitting Cozart in the head.

Correction: it got him on the shoulder (Dammit, Matt Andrews)

OnBaseMachine
04-22-2010, 09:42 PM
Henry Rodriguez just drew his first walk of the season.

GOYA
04-22-2010, 09:46 PM
Henry Rodriguez just drew his first walk of the season.

Is it too early to compare Henry to Joe Sewell? lol

Cedric
04-22-2010, 09:48 PM
Is it too early to compare Henry to Joe Sewell? lol

If I remember correctly Sewell is the oldest living player to ever be elected to the HOF.

Trivia time.

OnBaseMachine
04-22-2010, 09:53 PM
Indy pitcher Steven Jackson is ejected after hitting Cozart in the head.

Correction: it got him on the shoulder (Dammit, Matt Andrews)

Do they really want to get in a beanball war with Aroldis Chapman on the mound?

GOYA
04-22-2010, 09:53 PM
If I remember correctly Sewell is the oldest living player to ever be elected to the HOF.

Trivia time.

Probably so. He was elected by the Veteran's Committee in 77. He was arguably the best contact hitter of all time.

GOYA
04-22-2010, 09:54 PM
Chapman back for the 6th. So much for the pitch count.

NJReds
04-22-2010, 09:55 PM
Chapman back for the 6th. So much for the pitch count.

Shouldn't they be stretching him out? Seems like he found a groove the past few innings.

OnBaseMachine
04-22-2010, 09:57 PM
Strikeout #8 for Chapman to begin the 6th inning.

OnBaseMachine
04-22-2010, 09:58 PM
Chapman's final line: 5.1 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 5 BB/8 K, 5 GO/1 FO, 95 pitches.

His ERA now stands at 0.60 in 15 IP.

Cedric
04-22-2010, 09:58 PM
Chapman isn't going to walk this many people at the MLB level. He won't K as many people either though.

Edd Roush
04-22-2010, 09:58 PM
Chapman gets pulled after facing his first batter of the sixth inning.

dougdirt
04-22-2010, 10:07 PM
Chapman isn't going to walk this many people at the MLB level. He won't K as many people either though.

What makes you come to that conclusion?

GOYA
04-22-2010, 10:12 PM
5-1 Bats on a SF by Heisey

dougdirt
04-22-2010, 10:27 PM
Lynchburg lost 5-2.



Player AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO AVG
Fellhauer CF 4 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 .259
Buchholz 3B 4 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 .240
Soto 1B 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .229
Mendez, C DH 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 .295
Mesoraco C 4 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 .300
Day LF 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 .211
Puckett 2B 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .273
Rojas SS 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .306
Reed, J RF 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .037

Player IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA
Webb 6.0 5 2 2 2 6 1 3.86
Horst (L, 0-1) 2.0 3 3 3 2 1 0 6.35

GOYA
04-22-2010, 10:32 PM
Balentien gets his first hit with 1 on and 2 out in the 8th.

Runners at 1st and 2nd for Castillo

GOYA
04-22-2010, 10:33 PM
Castillo singles in Cozart

Bats up 6-1

GOYA
04-22-2010, 10:36 PM
Anderson grounds to short but an E6 allows Balentien to score

7-1 Bats

dougdirt
04-22-2010, 10:49 PM
Dayton lost 8-3.


Player AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO AVG
Gregorius SS 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .270
Rodriguez 2B 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 .266
Carlson, S 2B 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .200
Means RF 5 0 4 0 0 0 1 0 1 .400
Wiley DH 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 .184
Richburg 1B 3 1 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 .278
Fleury, M C 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 .143
Pfister 3B 4 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 .267
Contreras, E CF 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .184
Oliveras LF 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 .182

Player IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA
Johnson (L-1) 4.1 8 5 5 1 0 1 7.42
Martinez, Ju 2.1 3 3 3 2 5 0 8.53
Infante, E 1.1 0 0 0 1 0 0 4.66
James, M 1.0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0.00

GOYA
04-22-2010, 11:17 PM
Bats win 7-1


Player AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO AVG
Burke, C RF 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .146
Heisey CF 4 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 .232
Dorn 1B 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 .265
Francisco, J 3B 5 2 2 1 0 1 2 0 2 .129
Cozart SS 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 .286
Valaika 2B 4 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 .364
Frazier LF 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 .162
Balentien a- PH 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .059
Castillo, W C 4 1 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 .216
Chapman P 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 .500
Anderson LF 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .094

Player IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA
Chapman (W, 1-1) 5.1 3 1 0 5 8 0 0.60
Reineke (H, 2) 1.2 2 0 0 0 1 0 2.38
Delgado, J 1.1 1 0 0 3 2 0 3.60
Tabor 0.2 0 0 0 1 1 0 3.12

mace
04-22-2010, 11:23 PM
Andrew Means was 4 for 5 tonight and is now batting .400.

Edit: (Uh, I guess you saw that in the box two posts above. Oops.)

Cedric
04-23-2010, 12:18 AM
What makes you come to that conclusion?

Not exactly earth shattering on my part :)

Better hitters won't swing and miss as much as I have seen AAA hitters against Chapman. But when you throw as hard as Chapman and are LH you will still K plenty. Should lower his BB rate though by more balls in play.

GOYA
04-23-2010, 12:29 AM
So you think MLB hitters are more likely to swing at balls?

OnBaseMachine
04-23-2010, 12:30 AM
Lynchburg lost 5-2.

Fallhauer: 1-for-4 double
Buchholz: 1-for-4
Soto: 0-for-4
Mendez: 1-for-3 walk
Mesoraco: 2-for-4 double

Webb: 6 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 6 K

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=g_box&gid=2010_04_22_lynafa_salafa_1

Cedric
04-23-2010, 12:30 AM
So you think MLB hitters are more likely to swing at balls?

No. Hence why I said he won't have to go deep into every single count. Some of the pitches fouled off would be put in play.

Cedric
04-23-2010, 12:40 AM
There are reasons guys like CC, Aj Burnett, Zambrano, and Randy Johnson had such high BB/9 rates during their minor league careers compared to MLB. Some part of that is talent progression and some part of that is the talent at the plate.

11larkin11
04-23-2010, 12:49 AM
So, that Mez guy, eh?

Andrew Means has got to be soaring up the prospect chart right now. Athleticism out the ying yang, and he crushing the ball. I go back to Benzinger predicting a breakout year. When the coach picks one guy because of things hes seen behind the curtain, it means hes made an adjustment that you can tell is gonna help him.

GIDP
04-23-2010, 04:15 AM
Glad to see some prospects getting off to decent starts. Some of the "potential" guys to boot.

mth123
04-23-2010, 07:33 AM
Glad to see some prospects getting off to decent starts. Some of the "potential" guys to boot.

Guys I'm most impressed with so far:

1. Mesoraco
2. Alonso
3. Valaika
4. H. Rodriguez
5. Lecure

I'd pretty much given up on Mes, Val and Lecure. I thought Alonso was hopelessly blocked and knew too little about H-Rod to have much of an opinion. Now I'm hopeful they all may have some value.

IMO, Valaika may be on track as the first position player recalled. Valaika up playing Cairo's role may be an improvement to the Reds bench, but I do like him getting to play every day at 2B for a season as well. Hopefully he's not rushed too much. He's not been mentioned much in Frazier's shadow, but Valaika may actually have enough defensively to make Phillips expendable. If not, hopefully H-Rod won't be too far behind him.

TRF
04-23-2010, 10:47 AM
I pegged Valaika as comeback player of the year in the Reds system. The guy is a hitter plain and simple.

mace
04-23-2010, 10:54 AM
I was impressed with Valaika's defense in spring training. Of course, it's hard to judge defense by the radio, but he seemed to be making a slew of plays.

Am I the only one who's just not that enamored of Alonso? Nothing against him, and I acknowledge that he shows a lot of polish as a hitter . . . but I just have a hard time warming to somebody whose value seems to be vested so heavily in walks. Unless he's a leadoff or No. 2 batter. Which Alonso isn't. Walking as much as he does, and with the moderate power that he has, I just don't see him being that productive in the middle of the order. And he's not fast enough for the top of the order. To me, he smacks of a tweener. And then there's the position issue . . .

GOYA
04-23-2010, 11:32 AM
Valaika has always looked good with the glove. His rough spot is making throws. The move to 2B seems to be helping. Cozart seems to be the full package at SS.

Dorn's defense at 1B is definitely improved.

Francisco seems to be a little better at 3B too. (I probably shouldn't jinx him)

HokieRed
04-23-2010, 01:57 PM
Re Alonso: who, in our minor leagues, has a better chance to OBP .400?

dougdirt
04-23-2010, 02:25 PM
I was impressed with Valaika's defense in spring training. Of course, it's hard to judge defense by the radio, but he seemed to be making a slew of plays.

Am I the only one who's just not that enamored of Alonso? Nothing against him, and I acknowledge that he shows a lot of polish as a hitter . . . but I just have a hard time warming to somebody whose value seems to be vested so heavily in walks. Unless he's a leadoff or No. 2 batter. Which Alonso isn't. Walking as much as he does, and with the moderate power that he has, I just don't see him being that productive in the middle of the order. And he's not fast enough for the top of the order. To me, he smacks of a tweener. And then there's the position issue . . .
Alonso is probably a 25-30 HR guy. Lots of walks. Sounds like a guy we have playing 1B now, though Alonso has a better K/BB. For the record though, he is what Alonso has done with RISP and Men on in his career as a minor leaguer:



AB H 2B 3B HR W K AVG OBP SLG OPS
Men On 166 56 11 0 7 27 23 .337 .422 .530 .952
RISP 91 32 4 0 7 16 11 .352 .434 .626 1.060

11larkin11
04-23-2010, 02:26 PM
I was impressed with Valaika's defense in spring training. Of course, it's hard to judge defense by the radio, but he seemed to be making a slew of plays.

Am I the only one who's just not that enamored of Alonso? Nothing against him, and I acknowledge that he shows a lot of polish as a hitter . . . but I just have a hard time warming to somebody whose value seems to be vested so heavily in walks. Unless he's a leadoff or No. 2 batter. Which Alonso isn't. Walking as much as he does, and with the moderate power that he has, I just don't see him being that productive in the middle of the order. And he's not fast enough for the top of the order. To me, he smacks of a tweener. And then there's the position issue . . .

You better duck and cover.

RiverRat13
04-23-2010, 03:25 PM
Did we ever get an answer to how well Alonso is playing defensively in left? I saw that topic was closed since the discussion went awry.

mace
04-23-2010, 04:00 PM
You better duck and cover.

How well I know, 11.

Doug, Alonso's numbers with runners on base are indeed impressive. If he can maintain those at the major-league level, he can certainly be a pretty good producer in the middle of the lineup. Of course, there are those who say that such numbers don't really project. That's another discussion. But as middle-of-the-order run producers go, I look for a guy who 1) puts the bat on the ball at a reasonably high rate, 2) does it with power, and 3) doesn't pass along his RBI opportunities by taking a high percentage of walks. Of course, if there are big-time producers in the spots following, the walks become more advantageous. But that's a luxury type of circumstance that the Reds are certainly not blessed with at this point.

You might be right about the similarity to Votto. My feeling is that Alonso is slightly more selective, while Votto has a bit more power and certainly more speed. If Alonso ran better, I'd love him at the top of the order. As it is, I think he profiles best in the 3-hole, where, in a perfect world, I'd like more speed. That's why I'm just a smidgen short of being sold on the guy--at least, to the extent that most people on here seem to be.

dougdirt
04-23-2010, 04:10 PM
So you aren't sold on Alonso because he is slow?

mace
04-23-2010, 04:24 PM
So you aren't sold on Alonso because he is slow?

That, coupled with the fact that his best ability is getting on base (walk-driven). It's not an ideal combination.

dougdirt
04-23-2010, 04:28 PM
That, coupled with the fact that his best ability is getting on base (walk-driven). It's not an ideal combination.

Getting on base is always ideal. Always.

camisadelgolf
04-23-2010, 04:30 PM
I think we'd all rather have a slow guy on base than a fast guy in the dugout.

HokieRed
04-23-2010, 04:38 PM
Alonso has great ability to get on base via the walk, but I'd hardly call that his most important attribute. His most important ability is hitting the ball. Give him a chance. As to his power, in an admittedly SSS, he's hitting a HR in 20 AB's coming off a hamate injury!

mace
04-23-2010, 05:02 PM
Getting on base is always ideal. Always.

See, that's the fundamental thing that--bar the door!--I disagree with. I simply do not believe that, if you are a power hitter batting fourth, entrusted to drive in runs, a base on balls is the ideal outcome with, say, two outs and two on. It passes on the RBI responsibility to another hitter who is less capable of getting home the run. If getting on base were always ideal, why would there ever be an intentional walk?

This is a discussion that's been bandied about plenty of times on here. We should probably just agree to disagree on this one.

dougdirt
04-23-2010, 05:14 PM
See, that's the fundamental thing that--bar the door!--I disagree with. I simply do not believe that, if you are a power hitter batting fourth, entrusted to drive in runs, a base on balls is the ideal outcome with, say, two outs and two on. It passes on the RBI responsibility to another hitter who is less capable of getting home the run. If getting on base were always ideal, why would there ever be an intentional walk?

This is a discussion that's been bandied about plenty of times on here. We should probably just agree to disagree on this one.

I just went back to 2000 and looked at RBI seasons of 120 or more. There were 95 seasons in there. Of those 95 players, 53 of them walked at least 80 times in a season. Most high RBI guys are also high walk guys. There is a reason for it. Most high walk guys are very good hitters and good hitters are going to walk a lot because they know what their strikezone is. They would rather pass the RBI chance on to someone else than hit a weak groundball to 2B by expanding the zone.

mace
04-23-2010, 05:38 PM
I'm not advocating getting yourself out. Yes, those good hitters are generally selective. The walk totals, however, reflect more than just selectivity. Because they're good and productive hitters, pitchers are more careful with them. To some extent, the walks are a byproduct of their hitting ability.

So, as applied to Alonso: If his walks are coming because pitchers are pitching around him, that's fine. In that case, when he gets to the majors he probably won't be pitched around to such an extent, will in turn generate more run-producing hits, and will become a more valuable hitter in the middle of the lineup. On the other hand, if he's walking a lot because that's his M.O., then he would be more useful hitting in a position where others can drive him in. That's where the lack of speed comes in.

Look, I like the guy. He's a professional hitter. I'm just not as head-over-heels for him as others seem to be, because I don't quite see his niche in a big-league lineup. That said, there's a good chance that he'll show more power as he gets further away from his hamate injury. If he can progress to where he's delivering close to 300 total bases in a season, I'll be standing by with a pencil to write him smack-dab into the middle of the order.

HokieRed
04-23-2010, 05:50 PM
Based on what I've seen of him, I'd say his walks are based on his very early pitch recognition, the same quality that will make him an excellent hitter.

dougdirt
04-23-2010, 05:55 PM
I don't think he goes up there looking to walk. But I think he is more willing to wait for his pitch than almost everyone else (especially at the minor league level). The problem is you are looking for him to fill a spot specific lineup spot. Just look at his skillset on its own. He is a guy who projects to be a .300/.400/.500 hitter. That is a guy you can hit anywhere in the lineup you want.

mace
04-23-2010, 06:35 PM
If he bats .300 and slugs .500, we'll be pretty much in agreement. His minor-league numbers aren't quite there yet, but if he develops the way you believe he will, I won't have a problem with him in the middle of the order. I'd prefer that he lop off about 40 walks and apply the .300/.500 to those 40 at-bats (producing another 12 hits and 20 total bases); but at that point, I won't quibble.

TRF
04-23-2010, 06:42 PM
Mace, you can call it what you want, but a slow, high OBP power hitter is in the Dunn mold.

And I'd take a Dunn season from Alonso any time.

I don't have problem one with the Alonso pick. I doubt he ever plays any significant time as a Red, but that doesn't mean he has no value. I just think he's lower on the depth chart, and the guys above him have skillsets the Reds are looking for more. JF has more power, Heisey is speed and defense. Frazier is probably a better defender and probably his equal as a hitter. And though I think Dorn is now a 1B for good, His splits are better. against RH's, Dorn might be the Reds best minor league hitter.

But Alonso can be part of a package as long as he hits, and if the return is a player that helps propel the Reds to the playoffs, I'm ok with it.

dougdirt
04-23-2010, 06:53 PM
If he bats .300 and slugs .500, we'll be pretty much in agreement. His minor-league numbers aren't quite there yet, but if he develops the way you believe he will, I won't have a problem with him in the middle of the order. I'd prefer that he lop off about 40 walks and apply the .300/.500 to those 40 at-bats (producing another 12 hits and 20 total bases); but at that point, I won't quibble.

The problem is, if you trade 40 walks for 12 hits, you take a guy with this line:


PA AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS BABIP
600 511 150 40 0 25 80 90 .294 .392 .519 .910 .313

to this line:


PA AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS BABIP
600 551 162 44 0 25 40 90 .294 .345 .510 .855 .311


That is severely cutting into his overall production and costing the team almost a full win with that drop off in production.

mace
04-23-2010, 08:13 PM
The problem is, if you trade 40 walks for 12 hits, you take a guy with this line:


PA AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS BABIP
600 511 150 40 0 25 80 90 .294 .392 .519 .910 .313

to this line:


PA AB H 2B 3B HR BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS BABIP
600 551 162 44 0 25 40 90 .294 .345 .510 .855 .311


That is severely cutting into his overall production and costing the team almost a full win with that drop off in production.

Those numbers aren't quite right, Doug. The premise was they he maintains the same slugging percentage, so, for starters, the slg for Player 1 would not be 9 points higher than Player 2. That would also close the gap a bit in OPS. Also, you've kept the home run total the same. There would be a couple extra for Player 2 in those 40 at-bats.

If production were tied wholly to OPS, yes, it would be a drop in production. But if you're talking about a cleanup hitter--and that's what I'm doing--the key stat is total bases. The more total bases, the more the runners in front of him can complete the circuit.

Certainly, there are tradeoffs. Ultimately, the difference will depend on the people around him. But for my money, I'll happily swap walks for total bases in the cleanup spot.

dougdirt
04-23-2010, 08:18 PM
Those numbers aren't quite right, Doug. The premise was they he maintains the same slugging percentage, so, for starters, the slg for Player 1 would not be 9 points higher than Player 2. That would also close the gap a bit in OPS. Also, you've kept the home run total the same. There would be a couple extra for Player 2 in those 40 at-bats.

If production were tied wholly to OPS, yes, it would be a drop in production. But if you're talking about a cleanup hitter--and that's what I'm doing--the key stat is total bases. The more total bases, the more the runners in front of him can complete the circuit.

Certainly, there are tradeoffs. Ultimately, the difference will depend on the people around him. But for my money, I'll happily swap walks for total bases in the cleanup spot.

Well just so you know, for your money, you want the far inferior player hitting clean up for you. Your team is going to score fewer runs because of it. The key stat for all positions is OBP and you are cutting a guys off by 50 points so he can get a few extra singles/doubles instead of 40 extra bases via walks.

mace
04-23-2010, 10:45 PM
Like I said at the outset, that's where we'll have to agree to disagree. I can't paint with that broad a brush.

dougdirt
04-23-2010, 10:49 PM
Like I said at the outset, that's where we'll have to agree to disagree. I can't paint with that broad a brush.

You can't accept that a guy with the same slugging and 50 points better OBP isn't better than the guy with the same slugging and 50 fewer points of OBP?

mace
04-23-2010, 11:03 PM
No, not simply on face value. Not simply by the same modern platitudes that people keep spewing over and over and over as gospel. Sure, it sounds obvious, doesn't it? One guy has a higher OBP and a higher OPS, so of course he's the better player. But you can't make those calls so definitively, so dismissively, so indisputably, without taking the circumstances into account.

We're talking about cleanup hitters, and here's what's indisputable about this scenario. My guy will absolutely, positively drive in more runs than your guy. Because in your guy's 40 walks, he hasn't driven in any. I don't know exactly how many my guy has driven in, but it's more than yours. Naturally, that's not the end of the story. Your guy has extended the inning. But now, it's the next hitter who has those same 40 opportunities to drive in runs. And he WILL NOT drive in as many as my guy, if the batting order has been properly constructed. Because my guy is the cleanup hitter, and presumably the best RBI man.

So, at that point, my guy has produced more runs for his team. The only way your guy can become more valuable is if somebody down the line actually drives in your guy (or perhaps a baserunner preceding him) enough times to overcome the deficit. Now, he may or may not do that. Like I said before, it depends on the hitters who follow in the lineup. If your lineup is filled with great, productive hitters, then, yeah, I'll take the OBP guy. But in a normal lineup--and the Reds' is not quite that--the hitters who follow the cleanup guy are increasingly unproductive.

So, see, it's just not so simple.

dougdirt
04-23-2010, 11:13 PM
No, not simply on face value. Not simply by the same modern platitudes that people keep spewing over and over and over as gospel. Sure, it sounds obvious, doesn't it? One guy has a higher OBP and a higher OPS, so of course he's the better player. But you can't make those calls so definitively, so dismissively, so indisputably, without taking the circumstances into account.

We're talking about cleanup hitters, and here's what's indisputable about this scenario. My guy will absolutely, positively drive in more runs than your guy. Because in your guy's 40 walks, he hasn't driven in any. I don't know exactly how many my guy has driven in, but it's more than yours. Naturally, that's not the end of the story. Your guy has extended the inning. But now, it's the next hitter who has those same 40 opportunities to drive in runs. And he WILL NOT drive in as many as my guy, if the batting order has been properly constructed. Because my guy is the cleanup hitter, and presumably the best RBI man.

So, at that point, my guy has produced more runs for his team. The only way your guy can become more valuable is if somebody down the line actually drives in your guy (or perhaps a baserunner preceding him) enough times to overcome the deficit. Now, he may or may not do that. Like I said before, it depends on the hitters who follow in the lineup. If your lineup is filled with great, productive hitters, then, yeah, I'll take the OBP guy. But in a normal lineup--and the Reds' is not quite that--the hitters who follow the cleanup guy are increasingly unproductive.

So, see, it's just not so simple.

Sure, your guy will drive in more runs, but the guys behind my guy will drive in more runs than your guys, thus making the teams run scored better, thus making the team better. It really is that simple. I care much less about a specific players RBI's and much more about a teams total runs scored. My guy is going to make the team score a bunch more runs than yours.

mace
04-23-2010, 11:19 PM
Rather than repeat my previous post, I'll just agree to disagree for the third time and call it a night.