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OnBaseMachine
06-02-2010, 12:24 AM
Leake has been better but Johnny Cueto has been very good this season too except for tonight. Starts like tonight happen sometimes. Both of them have been very impressive this season.

Ron Madden
06-02-2010, 02:33 AM
There are 29 other clubs who would take Cueto & Leake in a heartbeat.

WebScorpion
06-02-2010, 06:05 AM
I'd like to see them skip Leake's turn in the rotation when they get to Washington. It will save him a little for later in the season and keep everyone else on their normal schedule. It also might line him up to pitch against other teams aces and it would make it so that Leake and Arroyo will be separated by Cueto and LeCure/Bailey.

Thursday - Off
Friday - Harang
Saturday - Arroyo (Leake's old slot)
Sunday - Cueto
Monday - LeCure
Tuesday - Leake (against Matt Cain (SF))

Just a thought. http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-forum/2c.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys.php)

Ron Madden
06-02-2010, 06:08 AM
I'd like to see them skip Leake's turn in the rotation when they get to Washington. It will save him a little for later in the season and keep everyone else on their normal schedule. It also might line him up to pitch against other teams aces and it would make it so that Leake and Arroyo will be separated by Cueto and LeCure/Bailey.

Thursday - Off
Friday - Harang
Saturday - Arroyo (Leake's old slot)
Sunday - Cueto
Monday - LeCure
Tuesday - Leake (against Matt Cain (SF))

Just a thought. http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-forum/2c.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys.php)


Not a bad thought.

membengal
06-02-2010, 06:44 AM
I'd like to see them skip Leake's turn in the rotation when they get to Washington. It will save him a little for later in the season and keep everyone else on their normal schedule. It also might line him up to pitch against other teams aces and it would make it so that Leake and Arroyo will be separated by Cueto and LeCure/Bailey.

Thursday - Off
Friday - Harang
Saturday - Arroyo (Leake's old slot)
Sunday - Cueto
Monday - LeCure
Tuesday - Leake (against Matt Cain (SF))

Just a thought. http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-forum/2c.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys.php)

Whoa, whoa, whoa, slow your roll friend. I am going to Saturday's game in DC to see Leake pitch.

I like the idea. That particular timing would make me sad. Pick out a different road start to buy him a start off...

TRF
06-02-2010, 09:15 AM
If Leake isn't the ace, then who is?

despite having a poor outing last night, It's Cueto. Better stuff, higher upside. And he'll go into his next start ticked at his last performance. Maybe co number 1's?

bucksfan2
06-02-2010, 01:32 PM
despite having a poor outing last night, It's Cueto. Better stuff, higher upside. And he'll go into his next start ticked at his last performance. Maybe co number 1's?

I can't agree with this. Cueto has the stuff to be excellent but last night showed an all too familiar Cueto to me. He was given a 3-0 lead right off the bat and gave up 3 runs in the bottom of the 1st. Then he was spotted a 7-3 lead only to give it away before the 7th inning ended.

IMO starts like last night are whats holding Johnny back from being a very good pitcher. The better pitches on off nights hold the opposing team in check, Johnny let the Cards run wild scoring 8 earned runs.

OnBaseMachine
06-02-2010, 01:34 PM
With better defense behind him last night Cueto doesn't allow more than five runs, IMO. Phillips and Rolen both botched plays they normally make. Those should have been ruled errors, IMO.

Ron Madden
06-02-2010, 02:19 PM
With better defense behind him last night Cueto doesn't allow more than five runs, IMO. Phillips and Rolen both botched plays they normally make. Those should have been ruled errors, IMO.

Agreed.

dougdirt
06-02-2010, 02:58 PM
So far, absolutely and its not close.

Falls City Beer
06-02-2010, 03:01 PM
Pet peeve: blaming the defense and umping for a pitcher surrendering 8 or more runs in 5 innings.

When the weather warms and the starters face real offenses, they're going to get kicked around. It's just going to happen. Might as well shore yourself up mentally cuz it's on its way. One important difference this year though is that the Reds have an offense that can chase the other teams' pitchers.

bucksfan2
06-02-2010, 03:02 PM
With better defense behind him last night Cueto doesn't allow more than five runs, IMO. Phillips and Rolen both botched plays they normally make. Those should have been ruled errors, IMO.

Both of those plays in question were rockets hit. The BP one irritated me until I saw the replay in which it looked like the ump shielded BP from the ball. The Rolen play Scott should have gotten but I can also see why it was ruled a hit.

Cueto got hit and hit hard last night. That was the reason more than anything why the Cards hung 8 runs on him.

TRF
06-02-2010, 03:09 PM
4.2 IP 6H 6R 6ER 5BB's 5K's

That was my favorite go to pitcher Tim Lincecim's line on May 26th. On May 20th he had this line: 5.0IP 5H 5R 5ER 5BB's 6K's

These starts happen. Prior to last night there wasn't a single Reds pitcher throwing better than Cueto this year. Certainly not over the last 6 starts prior to last night.

It happens. Fortunately he only threw 83 pitches. If his game log is any indication, his next 2-3 outings should be very, very good.

Ron Madden
06-02-2010, 03:16 PM
Pet peeve: blaming the defense and umping for a pitcher surrendering 8 or more runs in 5 innings.

When the weather warms and the starters face real offenses, they're going to get kicked around. It's just going to happen. Might as well shore yourself up mentally cuz it's on its way. One important difference this year though is that the Reds have an offense that can chase the other teams' pitchers.

I'm not blaming the defense for Cueto's bad outing.

Just sayin' Phillips and Rolen should have made those plays. They usually do.

OnBaseMachine
06-02-2010, 04:14 PM
I'll just post this in here instead of creating a new thread - The Reds have a team ERA of 3.81 since April 25th. And that includes the bullpen. Not bad considering the ballpark they pitch in.

VR
06-02-2010, 04:22 PM
I'll just post this in here instead of creating a new thread - The Reds have a team ERA of 3.81 since April 25th. And that includes the bullpen. Not bad considering the ballpark they pitch in.

considering the last two games as well...that's pretty impressive indeed.

bucksfan2
06-02-2010, 04:52 PM
I'll just post this in here instead of creating a new thread - The Reds have a team ERA of 3.81 since April 25th. And that includes the bullpen. Not bad considering the ballpark they pitch in.

I remember thinking the Reds starters were never going to win a game. Nice bounce back after a woeful first couple of weeks.

fearofpopvol1
06-05-2010, 09:43 PM
I may have to go buy a Leake jersey.

7 IP, 7 H, 1 R (O ER), 5 K, 0 BB

Season ERA, 2.22.

Oh, and also, Leake went 2-3 at the plate including a run scored from first base on a double by Cabrera and he was flying. He's now batting .417 on the season (10-24).

RedsManRick
06-05-2010, 10:02 PM
I wonder what the record is for most QS (or highest %). I believe he's at 10/11 now.

Cedric
06-05-2010, 10:10 PM
By far the best pitcher on the staff. Cueto doesn't have near the pitching IQ that Leake has. I've got a Cueto jersey and still say this :)

I like Leake's "stuff" better anyway. He has great movement and can locate his pitches better.

Falls City Beer
06-05-2010, 10:15 PM
The guy has been unbelievable. I hope the FO appreciates what they have and don't abuse him.

VR
06-05-2010, 10:21 PM
The guy has been unbelievable. I hope the FO appreciates what they have and don't abuse him.

No kidding...the biggest issue so far is how well he's pitched without showing any signs of slowing. Dusty has done a great job limiting his innings....going over 100 only twice...106 and 105. He's averaging right around 97 per...and of those 97, very seldom does he have 'high leverage situations' where he's continually pitching under pressure.

His overall defense, hitting, baserunning and poise put this guy over the top.

They'll have to skip a start or two later in the season, but this guy will be tough to put on the pine. When he does, I'd be very very quick to use him as a pinch runner or pinch hitter.

He's beyond impressive.

guttle11
06-05-2010, 10:21 PM
The guy has been unbelievable. I hope the FO appreciates what they have and don't abuse him.

They won't. I think they'll dial him back in July (skipping him around the All-Star break) and into early August. With LeCure showing himself to at least be a credible spot starter, plus Maloney and Wood, they can get away with it.

If it was just Dusty making the call, I'd be worried. Can't see Jocketty allowing Leake to be pushed too hard, though. He's safe beyond this year, he won't risk it.

OnBaseMachine
06-05-2010, 10:29 PM
Another excellent start by Leake. It was nice to see the Reds finally take advantage of his great pitching. They lose his last three starts despite him allowing only 2 ER in those starts.

Why does it seem like the Reds always play their worst defense when Leake pitches? Cairo and Cabrera botched double plays in Atlanta that played a huge part in blowing the 9-3 game, then Stubbs lost a flyball in the lights against the Pirates that led to a triple and a run, and then tonight Votto dropped a line drive hit right at him which cost Leake an unearned run. I thought for sure tonight's game was going to take a turn for the worst after Votto's error but Leake buckled down and got a huge out. Great pitching by Leake and a big win for the Reds.

Screwball
06-05-2010, 10:34 PM
Why does it seem like the Reds always play their worst defense when Leake pitches?

Hazing, of course. That'll teach him to be a rookie. ;)

Sea Ray
06-05-2010, 11:29 PM
Is it fair to say that he's never pitched in the minor leagues since he pitched in the Az Fall league? That sure ain't the majors...

Will M
06-05-2010, 11:40 PM
my wife commented tonight that Leake looks polished on the mound compared to other young pitchers the Reds have had. i thought about it. i suspect pitching for a major college program & in the college world series is tougher mentally than pitching in the minors. even so Leake seems to be mature beyond his age. i thought Bernadina was out on strikes but the ump called the pitch a ball. the next pitch hit to Votto who dropped the ball. run scores. 2-1. two men still on. when i was Leake's age i would not have been very happy about this scenario. i likely would have been upset & start losing my focus. what does Leake do? calmly retires the next batter.

kaldaniels
06-05-2010, 11:44 PM
Is it fair to say that he's never pitched in the minor leagues since he pitched in the Az Fall league? That sure ain't the majors...

It's an "off-season" league. So officially, he skipped the minors.

Blitz Dorsey
06-06-2010, 12:10 AM
To answer the original question...

I'm going with YES!

OnBaseMachine
06-06-2010, 12:14 AM
From John Fay's blog:


Mike Leake has thrown 73 innings in the Reds’ first 56 games. That put him on a pace to throw 211 on the year. The Reds will not let that happen. I can’t see them going over 170, 180.

“Don’t make a positive a negative,” Dusty Baker said. “We try to him out of there right around 100 (pitches). We try to skip him with off days. He’s the guy who’s the recipient of the extra day.

“We’re very aware and conscious of it.”


to read the rest: http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2010/06/05/the-innings-meter-is-running-on-leake/

kaldaniels
06-06-2010, 12:26 AM
I don't want Leake throwing 200 innings this year...but in my opinion his 7 innings tonight were way easier on the arm than Harangs 4 innings the other night. If he continues as is (and face it...hes gonna have a few tough games where he doesn't go very far) just skip 3 starts by the end of the year and I'm happy.

kaldaniels
06-06-2010, 12:32 AM
And to keep Fays math from the above post honest...4 games from now Leake will have pitched 73 innings in 60 games....putting him on pace for 197 innings...much more managable in terms of limiting his innings.

Superdude
06-06-2010, 12:45 AM
Tonight was just the definition of Mike Leake to me. Getting squeezed big time by the ump at times, but he kept his cool, missed plenty of bats, threw tons of strikes, picked up two more hits...It's getting to the point where you really have to start factoring in what Leake can do at the plate. I remember someone on here doing the math with Owings and showing how much better his ERA was when you subtracted the runs that he created. Leake doesn't have Owings power, but the dude can hit.

Matt700wlw
06-06-2010, 01:14 AM
All-Star. There's no reason he shouldn't be one this year.....and if he keeps this up, ROY and Cy Young discussion may very well start.

fearofpopvol1
06-06-2010, 01:20 AM
All-Star. There's no reason he shouldn't be one this year.....and if he keeps this up, ROY and Cy Young discussion may very well start.

He's going to have tough competition for both.

ROY...Jason Heyward has been ridiculous. Heyward is the sexier story for the media. In fairness though, it's deserved. Dude is OPS'ing .933. I think he will regress some, but he's a stud. Jaime Garcia has put up even better numbers than Leake has if you can believe that. Also, Strasburg will be considered too and he starts pitching in a couple days.

CY Young...I just can't see a rookie getting it, no matter what. Halliday, Carpenter and Wainwright are more likely winners.

Matt700wlw
06-06-2010, 01:24 AM
Ok, maybe I'm just overly excited.

:D

WebScorpion
06-06-2010, 02:49 AM
...It's getting to the point where you really have to start factoring in what Leake can do at the plate...
His fielding ability factors in too. He induces so many ground balls it makes his own fielding ability that much more important and he's a very polished infielder. He is the definition of 'ballplayer'.

Oh yeah, and he's finally the first guy on the 25-man younger than Jay Bruce. ;) Stubbs, Heisey, Cueto, Herrera, Ondrusek, LeCure... all older than Bruce. Not Leake, he's the new 'youngster'.

Caveat Emperor
06-06-2010, 03:04 AM
If it was just Dusty making the call, I'd be worried. Can't see Jocketty allowing Leake to be pushed too hard, though. He's safe beyond this year, he won't risk it.

Unless the team severely collapses, I can't see a scenario where Dusty Baker isn't back as the team's skipper for 2011.

And, just IMO, Baker has done a tremendous job handling the younger members of the rotation thus far. If Baker has any flaw, it's that he's riding the oldsters (Rhodes, Cordero, etc.) too hard.

Screwball
06-06-2010, 03:05 AM
His fielding ability factors in too. He induces so many ground balls it makes his own fielding ability that much more important and he's a very polished infielder. He is the definition of 'ballplayer'.

Oh yeah, and he's finally the first guy on the 25-man younger than Jay Bruce. ;) Stubbs, Heisey, Cueto, Herrera, Ondrusek, LeCure... all older than Bruce. Not Leake, he's the new 'youngster'.

Excellent points. Tough to do this deep in a thread. :thumbup:

Leake throws, what, 4 pitches for strikes? It really doesn't matter what kind of book there is, or how many times a team has seen him, he can get you out. Think Carpenter vs. the Reds.

I can guarantee you there's about 6 other Minor League Directors kicking themselves for not taking Mike Leake. Giant kudos to Chris Buckley.

BearcatShane
06-06-2010, 03:51 AM
He's going to have tough competition for both.

ROY...Jason Heyward has been ridiculous. Heyward is the sexier story for the media. In fairness though, it's deserved. Dude is OPS'ing .933. I think he will regress some, but he's a stud. Jaime Garcia has put up even better numbers than Leake has if you can believe that. Also, Strasburg will be considered too and he starts pitching in a couple days.

CY Young...I just can't see a rookie getting it, no matter what. Halliday, Carpenter and Wainwright are more likely winners.

Don't forget about the kid from Colorado.

GAC
06-06-2010, 04:44 AM
And the kid can also hit. He singled twice in three at-bats, raising his average to .417, the best mark in the majors for pitchers with at least 26 at-bats. He scored the decisive run.

And he should be 7-0, maybe even 8-0, right now. ;)

buckeyenut
06-06-2010, 09:03 AM
He's going to have tough competition for both.

ROY...Jason Heyward has been ridiculous. Heyward is the sexier story for the media. In fairness though, it's deserved. Dude is OPS'ing .933. I think he will regress some, but he's a stud. Jaime Garcia has put up even better numbers than Leake has if you can believe that. Also, Strasburg will be considered too and he starts pitching in a couple days.

CY Young...I just can't see a rookie getting it, no matter what. Halliday, Carpenter and Wainwright are more likely winners.

Unless he absolutely implodes, everyone is fighting for second in NL Cy Young behind Ubaldo Jimenez. Dude has been unbelievable.

buckeyenut
06-06-2010, 09:06 AM
And the kid can also hit. He singled twice in three at-bats, raising his average to .417, the best mark in the majors for pitchers with at least 26 at-bats. He scored the decisive run.

And he should be 7-0, maybe even 8-0, right now. ;)Reds have to have the best hitting pitching staff in the majors. Leake, Owings, Arroyo is a pretty good top three. Heck, a team could get away with starting those three bats everyday in a lineup. Even Harang is hitting better this year.

I think it would be a very interesting study to see what an impact the pitchers hitting has had on teams this year.

_Sir_Charles_
06-06-2010, 09:43 AM
He's going to have tough competition for both.

ROY...Jason Heyward has been ridiculous. Heyward is the sexier story for the media. In fairness though, it's deserved. Dude is OPS'ing .933. I think he will regress some, but he's a stud. Jaime Garcia has put up even better numbers than Leake has if you can believe that. Also, Strasburg will be considered too and he starts pitching in a couple days.

CY Young...I just can't see a rookie getting it, no matter what. Halliday, Carpenter and Wainwright are more likely winners.

Jimenez? I can't see ANY of those guys coming close to Ubaldo. He's been THAT dominant.

fearofpopvol1
06-06-2010, 02:07 PM
Buster Olney - Mike Leake, The REAL Rookie Phenom

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog?name=olney_buster&id=5257115

Buster wrote a nice little piece about Leake. Unfortunately, it's an ESPN insider article, but here are a couple quotes...


The Reds took Leake eighth overall, knowing that the Kansas City Royals were prepared to take the right-hander with the ninth pick, and he has made their selection look very smart


If Strasburg starts his career with a 5-0 record and a 2.22 ERA, which are the numbers that Leake has posted so far, he will be perceived to be headed right to Cooperstown. Leake, on the other hand, continues to succeed without a lot of attention.

RedsManRick
06-06-2010, 06:44 PM
I find it interesting how easily people are overlooking the key to Leake's success. He's got a 1.74 GB/FB ratio and an extremely good 0.49 HR/9. Only 5 guys had HR/9 rates south of 0.50 last year: Chris Carpenter, Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum, Zack Greinke and Joel Pineiro.

Needless to say, if he can continue to keep the ball in the yard, he's going to continue to be a very effective pitcher.

Will M
06-06-2010, 07:22 PM
I find it interesting how easily people are overlooking the key to Leake's success. He's got a 1.74 GB/FB ratio and an extremely good 0.49 HR/9. Only 5 guys had HR/9 rates south of 0.50 last year: Chris Carpenter, Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum, Zack Greinke and Joel Pineiro.

Needless to say, if he can continue to keep the ball in the yard, he's going to continue to be a very effective pitcher.

i've noticed it. lets say he gives up a hit. i almost expect the next batter to hit into a double play. with some Reds pitchers i expect the next batter to hit one into the stands.

Leake's location is down down down. He must have gone to the St Louis school of pitching. plus some of the movement (i believe) on his pitches is often down.

Cabrera's range may not be what it once was but he and Brandon can turn a double play nicely.

RichRed
06-06-2010, 07:37 PM
It's probably been talked about and I just missed it, but what is the record for most consecutive starts to begin a career without a loss? Leake's up to 8.

Streak is now at 11. Anyone know the answer to this yet? Paging WOY...

Sea Ray
06-06-2010, 09:42 PM
Unless the team severely collapses, I can't see a scenario where Dusty Baker isn't back as the team's skipper for 2011.

And, just IMO, Baker has done a tremendous job handling the younger members of the rotation thus far. If Baker has any flaw, it's that he's riding the oldsters (Rhodes, Cordero, etc.) too hard.


I don't think it takes a severe collapse. If this team finishes below .500 it will not bode well for Baker's future here.

Sea Ray
06-06-2010, 09:47 PM
Buster Olney - Mike Leake, The REAL Rookie Phenom

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog?...ter&id=5257115


If Strasburg starts his career with a 5-0 record and a 2.22 ERA, which are the numbers that Leake has posted so far, he will be perceived to be headed right to Cooperstown. Leake, on the other hand, continues to succeed without a lot of attention.

What's Olney talking about? Leake has already been featured in Sports Illustrated and USA Today. Sure ESPN doesn't hype small market guys but I think overall Leake's gotten a lot of coverage

RichRed
06-07-2010, 10:00 AM
Found it!


according to the Elias Sports Bureau, Leake is the first pitcher to stay undefeated after his first 10 Major League starts

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100604&content_id=10790196&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

And now it's 11. The kid is something else.

Always Red
06-07-2010, 12:21 PM
What's Olney talking about? Leake has already been featured in Sports Illustrated and USA Today. Sure ESPN doesn't hype small market guys but I think overall Leake's gotten a lot of coverage

Buster only reads ESPN, of course; if it's not the Yankees or Red Sox, it's just not that important!

Caveat Emperor
06-10-2010, 04:06 PM
Don't look now, but it looks like the league is starting to get a better read on Mike Leake...

He gave up 11 hits in 4.1 IP today. Going back over his game logs from the last few starts reveals:

6/10: 4.1IP, 11H
6/5: 7IP, 7H
5/30: 6IP, 7H
5/25: 7.1IP, 10H

That's 35 hits allowed in 24.2 IP. Prior to this, he'd had a run of 5 straight games where he'd allowed less than 1H/1IP.

The Operator
06-10-2010, 04:09 PM
Yes, the hits are starting to worry me. Let's hope he can adjust accordingly.

fearofpopvol1
06-10-2010, 04:10 PM
I thought more than the Giants hitters "adjusting," Leake just did not have his best stuff today. His control was definitely off.

pedro
06-10-2010, 04:13 PM
I thought more than the Giants hitters "adjusting," Leake just did not have his best stuff today. His control was definitely off.

That's kind of my read on it too.

OnBaseMachine
06-10-2010, 04:14 PM
I didn't see the game today but I don't remember seeing him give up a ton of line drive hits in his previous three starts. IIRC, there was quite a few bloops that dropped in, and one of those hits was a flyball that Stubbs lost in the lights.

Today was Leake's first truly bad start. Leake had three starts in a row where he pitched very well and the team lost because of bad defense/lack of offense. Well, today was payback for one of those games. Leake didn't pitch well but the Reds offense bailed him out with a win for the team. Great job by the Reds.

UKFlounder
06-10-2010, 08:32 PM
24 hits in the previous 20 innings is not terrible.

Obviously today's start was bad, and those numbers will skew his stats for the past few starts, but today's numbers were so much worse than the previous 3 starts, I'm not sure it's enough to say it's a pattern. If he repeats this performance, yes, but none of the three starts before today's were anywhere nearly as bad as this one. (In 2 of those 3, he gave up 14 hits in 13 innings - I'd be thrilled to get that out of every 2 starts all year long. That leaves one more mediocre outing and today's flat-out bad game.)


Don't look now, but it looks like the league is starting to get a better read on Mike Leake...

He gave up 11 hits in 4.1 IP today. Going back over his game logs from the last few starts reveals:

6/10: 4.1IP, 11H
6/5: 7IP, 7H
5/30: 6IP, 7H
5/25: 7.1IP, 10H

That's 35 hits allowed in 24.2 IP. Prior to this, he'd had a run of 5 straight games where he'd allowed less than 1H/1IP.

reds1869
06-10-2010, 10:48 PM
I thought more than the Giants hitters "adjusting," Leake just did not have his best stuff today. His control was definitely off.

I agree. As MLB Network pointed out, Leake was routinely missing the location where Ramon was setting up. If you do that against big league hitters you will pay. If this is as bad as it gets from Mr. Leake, I'll take it. He pitched poorly but still gave the club every chance to win.

Ron Madden
06-11-2010, 03:00 AM
EVERYBODY has a bad day now and then.

bucksfan2
06-11-2010, 08:33 AM
I think Leake is always going to be a pitcher who gives up his fair share of hits. He really isn't a strike out pitcher and he is going to see balls put in play that fall in for hits. Even though he was hit pretty good yesterday, he got his fair share of ground balls that enabled double play chances.

RichRed
06-11-2010, 09:20 AM
His MLB record of starts to begin a career without a loss is now at 12, thanks to the Reds offense and defense this time.

TRF
06-11-2010, 10:08 AM
I agree. As MLB Network pointed out, Leake was routinely missing the location where Ramon was setting up. If you do that against big league hitters you will pay. If this is as bad as it gets from Mr. Leake, I'll take it. He pitched poorly but still gave the club every chance to win.

No he didn't. He didn't give the club any chance to win. That's not a slam on him, as all pitchers have bad games, but don't sugar coat it. He got spanked for 5 runs and the offense bailed him out. What some of us have been waiting for is a game like this and the one that follows. How will he rebound? Everyone hopes he's fantastic of course, but the next start will say more about his makeup than the previous 12 in a lot of ways.

bucksfan2
06-11-2010, 10:19 AM
No he didn't. He didn't give the club any chance to win. That's not a slam on him, as all pitchers have bad games, but don't sugar coat it. He got spanked for 5 runs and the offense bailed him out. What some of us have been waiting for is a game like this and the one that follows. How will he rebound? Everyone hopes he's fantastic of course, but the next start will say more about his makeup than the previous 12 in a lot of ways.

Couldn't disagree more. It was a bad start, even worse when you consider he didn't make it out of the 5th. But he did keep his team in the game. He didn't let the flood gates open. He was bailed out by some nice defense but the game could have been 6-0 or 8-0, but it wasn't. IMO one of the most telling signs of good pitches is the ability to not have your stuff, but still keep your team in the game.

TRF
06-11-2010, 11:50 AM
It was 4-0 in the third. The Reds bailed him out there in the bottom of the third. He allowed another run in the 5th. He pitched well enough to lose. His ERA for the game was over 9.00. He didn't keep the Reds in the game, the offense kept him in by bailing him out.

It happens. But saying a guy kept a team in a game while giving up 5 runs in 4 1/3, forcing extended use of the bullpen is looking at the start through very tinted glasses.

paulrichjr
06-17-2010, 11:20 AM
This was a good article on Leake that I found...I thought the goose of Jocketty was rather funny.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/story/13527003/leake-can-thank-parents-coaches-for-immediate-success-in-bigs?tag=pageRow;pageContainer


He owns a maturity beyond his 22 years, and a playfulness beneath them.

"He's got a little Dennis the Menace sometimes," Reds manager Dusty Baker says. "Like, he'll goose the wrong person. He goosed Walt [Jocketty, Cincinnati general manager] one time.

"He's a kid, man. But you can tell he comes from good stock, and a good family."

For a full season of what they've seen so far, the Reds will take every goose and towel snap that might come with their carefree and, yes, precocious, rookie.

fearofpopvol1
06-22-2010, 12:56 AM
Pretty darned good tonight. Line...

6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 4 BB, 2K...Season ERA, 2.92.

The walks were a bit excessive for him...and 1 of those walks turned into the only ER he gave up. Still, hard to complain about this performance. The A's are not a bad team.

fearofpopvol1
07-03-2010, 09:57 PM
Which Leake will show tomorrow? Hopefully the one that faced the Cubs the first time around.

Tornon
07-04-2010, 03:08 AM
Which Leake will show tomorrow? Hopefully the one that faced the Cubs the first time around.

I hope it's the one from the 2nd time.. I seem to recall he had one of his best days stuff wise that day

fearofpopvol1
07-04-2010, 04:16 PM
Nice day for Leake.

6 IP, 3ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 5 K

Season ERA, 3.38

membengal
07-04-2010, 06:40 PM
Especially nice considering the wind was blowing out.

traderumor
07-05-2010, 09:10 AM
Leake is still letting too many on base. While his WHIP will be counteracted somewhat by GB DPs, I'm not sure his first half success is sustainable with his high WHIP.

mth123
07-05-2010, 10:12 AM
Leake is still letting too many on base. While his WHIP will be counteracted somewhat by GB DPs, I'm not sure his first half success is sustainable with his high WHIP.

Agreed. I'm thinking he'll settle in as a strong number 4 starter for his career. Nice draft pick, good guy to have on a team, not the world beater he seemed to be early.

Screwball
07-05-2010, 10:26 AM
Agreed. I'm thinking he'll settle in as a strong number 4 starter for his career. Nice draft pick, good guy to have on a team, not the world beater he seemed to be early.

I don't think he'll post a sub-3.00 ERA anytime soon, but his FIP is 4.41, xFIP 4.36, and he's in his rookie season at age 22. But you don't think he'll progress at all throughout his career? In fact, you think he'll only regress to a (strong) BOR starter?

I'm going to have to respectfully disagree.

mth123
07-05-2010, 10:31 AM
I don't think he'll post a sub-3.00 ERA anytime soon, but his FIP is 4.41, xFIP 4.36, and he's in his rookie season at age 22. But you don't think he'll progress at all throughout his career? In fact, you think he'll only regress to a (strong) BOR starter?

I'm going to have to respectfully disagree.

I think the league will adjust to him. I agree that he's young, but his newness to the league works in his favor. I like him and hope the team keeps him for a long time. Last I looked a league average ERA is in the 4.2 range which I'd consider a middling number 3 on a play-off team. An FIP of 4.41 suggests strong number 4 to me.

Being a strong number 4 starter is not an insult. Cueto is a number 3. Other than a couple early seasons, Andy Pettitte has basically been a number three and I'd guess he has a borderline shot at the Hall of Fame.

RedEye
07-05-2010, 12:27 PM
Being a strong number 4 starter is not an insult. Cueto is a number 3. Other than a couple early seasons, Andy Pettitte has basically been a number three and I'd guess he has a borderline shot at the Hall of Fame.

I really fail to understand how pitchers can be given such assured numerical slots like this. Pitching staffs are so variable these days that one team's #1 is another team's #4. How is it that Cueto is a #3? By what criteria are you saying this with so much assurance?

mth123
07-05-2010, 12:37 PM
I really fail to understand how pitchers can be given such assured numerical slots like this. Pitching staffs are so variable these days that one team's #1 is another team's #4. How is it that Cueto is a #3? By what criteria are you saying this with so much assurance?

I don't pay attention to the variation. My criteria may be different than most, but for a viable play-off team, what caliber of pitcher do I think fits best in each slot? A number 1 is a Cy Young contender nearly every year. A number two is an above average pitcher who may get Cy Young consideration in his best years but mostly provides solid performance without the domination. A number three is a league average or so guy maybe slightly better, but is reliable. A number four is a solid arm who hovers around league average maybe falling a little short while still providing innings and giving his team a chance to win. He is passed over in the post season if possible, but may need to pitch based on rest and other criteria. A number five is a below average guy who goes to the pen in the post season and has no shot at pitching a play-off game.

VR
07-05-2010, 02:09 PM
Nice day for Leake.

6 IP, 3ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 5 K

Season ERA, 3.38

Only runs were on the two 'Wrigley wind-aided' home runs.

Funny how that was the credit for the Reds runs.....but apparently Cubs batters didn't have the same advantage? Through that lens....Reds pitching yesterday was beyond spectacular.

Big Klu
07-06-2010, 05:22 PM
Only runs were on the two 'Wrigley wind-aided' home runs.

Funny how that was the credit for the Reds runs.....but apparently Cubs batters didn't have the same advantage? Through that lens....Reds pitching yesterday was beyond spectacular.

Three of the Reds homers (two by Stubbs and one by Corky) were onto Waveland Avenue. They would have been home runs in almost any circumstance.

RedsManRick
07-06-2010, 05:32 PM
According to hittrackeronline, which adjusts for wind, etc. the HRs hit at Wrigley went the following "true" distance and would have been out of the following # of parks. The # of parks number includes the angle the ball was hit at and removes the influence of wind. Some balls may have hit walls instead of cleared them in other stadiums. I also included their interpretation: No Doubts (ND), Plenty (PL), Just Enough (JE), Lucky (L)

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/index.php?h=&p=&b=Wrigley+Field




Hitter Team Inn Type Dist Speed Angle Horiz. Apex Parks
Colvin, Tyler CHC 2 ND 432 107.9 25.4 77.9 84 29
Stubbs, Drew CIN 3 ND 417 103.5 34.5 106.3 125 30
Stubbs, Drew CIN 7 PL 417 102.9 32.9 82.9 125 27
Miller, Corky CIN 7 ND 412 102.8 30 105.5 99 30
Stubbs, Drew CIN 9 ND 407 103.8 27.5 107.8 83 30
Phillips, Brand CIN 7 ND 405 105.2 24.9 104.7 77 30
Colvin, Tyler CHC 6 JE 398 98.9 27.5 93.7 87 0
Gomes, Johnny CIN 7 JE 385 107.9 25.1 130 61 30
Janish, Paul CIN 6 JE 376 97.3 27.4 105.1 71 1

Homer Bailey
07-06-2010, 09:45 PM
I'd love to know which ballpark Colvin's first home run wouldn't have been out of. That was a BOMB that went WAY over my head in right center.

dougdirt
07-06-2010, 10:57 PM
I'd love to know which ballpark Colvin's first home run wouldn't have been out of. That was a BOMB that went WAY over my head in right center.

That is a real good question considering it went 432 feet in natural environments.... how is that not out in every park?

11larkin11
07-06-2010, 10:58 PM
That is a real good question considering it went 432 feet in natural environments.... how is that not out in every park?

Wrigley blowing in?

RedsManRick
07-07-2010, 12:15 AM
That is a real good question considering it went 432 feet in natural environments.... how is that not out in every park?

Beats me. Polo grounds?

Big Klu
07-07-2010, 10:12 PM
That is a real good question considering it went 432 feet in natural environments.... how is that not out in every park?


Beats me. Polo grounds?

Isn't it 436' to CF in Houston?

Sea Ray
07-08-2010, 12:49 PM
How is it that Tyler Colvin's HR in the 6th inning would have been out of zero parks? Seems to me it was out of at least one

fearofpopvol1
07-21-2010, 12:45 AM
I wonder how long he would've gone had there been no rain delay? I think it would've been a different game, but he pitched well tonight.

reds44
07-21-2010, 12:47 AM
I wonder how long he would've gone had there been no rain delay? I think it would've been a different game, but he pitched well tonight.
Considering we ended up winning, I'm not sure if the rain delay was such a bad thing. Having Leake only throw 67 pitches and getting a W can't be a bad thing.

Benihana
07-21-2010, 12:48 AM
Considering we ended up winning, I'm not sure if the rain delay was such a bad thing. Having Leake only throw 67 pitches and getting a W can't be a bad thing.

Agreed.

I'd like to see him skipped every other time out now with Harang coming back. Ditto for Wood.

nemesis
07-21-2010, 12:54 AM
Agreed.

I'd like to see him skipped every other time out now with Harang coming back. Ditto for Wood.

Having thrown less than 70 pitches after having 11 days off, was a perfect scenario. A start like this might have bought him one or two extra starts in Sept. Kid seems to do well even with all the days off. That might be because he is less than a year removed from only pitching once a week. Missing the minors might have been the best thing for him and the Reds, this season at least.

dougdirt
07-21-2010, 01:11 AM
How is it that Tyler Colvin's HR in the 6th inning would have been out of zero parks? Seems to me it was out of at least one

With the wind/weather conditions yes. But hittrackeronline.com takes everything and shows us what would have happened at 72 degrees, at sea level with no wind. In that situation, his HR would not have gone out of any park in baseball.

Also agree with Reds44.... to get Leake out on a low pitch count and still win the game was awesome.

Ron Madden
07-21-2010, 02:43 AM
Considering we ended up winning, I'm not sure if the rain delay was such a bad thing. Having Leake only throw 67 pitches and getting a W can't be a bad thing.

I believe it was a blessing in disguise.

TRF
07-24-2010, 09:48 PM
As to the original question, no. Cueto is and has been all year.

fearofpopvol1
07-24-2010, 11:52 PM
As to the original question, no. Cueto is and has been all year.

Easy to say that now...but Cueto struggled a little bit early on while Leake was not struggling. The answer wasn't as obvious in April/May.

nate
07-25-2010, 08:37 AM
Easy to say that now...but Cueto struggled a little bit early on while Leake was not struggling. The answer wasn't as obvious in April/May.

I might offer that the answer won't be obvious until Halloween.

Ron Madden
07-25-2010, 08:44 AM
I'd have to say Johnny Cueto looks more like the ace of the staff right now.

Others including Dusty think Arroyo may be the ace.

mth123
07-25-2010, 09:28 AM
I'd have to say Johnny Cueto looks more like the ace of the staff right now.

Others including Dusty think Arroyo may be the ace.

The problem will come if/when the team makes the post-season. That is really when slotting these guys into slots matters. The first two games should go to Cueto and Arroyo (order is up for debate, but I'd pitch Cueto first). After that, this staff makes me nervous. Leake and Wood have looked good, but they are rookies and if they are numbers 3 and 4, that means you may be trusting games 3, 4 and 7 to rookies (assuming Leake is even available at that point). A healthy and recovered Volquez would be OK, but I agree with FCB that we'll see a spotty guy for the rest of 2010 and the Volquez we think we've got probably will be a 2011 arm.

The staff looks good and promising, but if this team is serious about winning now, it needs a TOR arm IMO. Get a TOR guy and go TOR, Arroyo, Cueto and play it by ear. If enough off days/rest in the series, stick to just those three. If another is needed, I'd probably go with Wood at this point.

PuffyPig
07-25-2010, 09:33 AM
There is almost half a seson left to see who emerges as the best pitcher(s) for the playoffs.

Choosing it now with that much time left is simply a waste of time.

mth123
07-25-2010, 09:36 AM
There is almost half a seson left to see who emerges as the best pitcher(s) for the playoffs.

Choosing it now with that much time left is simply a waste of time.

The other side of that coin is that if you don't already know by now, then you are lacking a clear TOR guy and at a distinct disadvantage.

TRF
07-25-2010, 09:55 AM
Easy to say that now...but Cueto struggled a little bit early on while Leake was not struggling. The answer wasn't as obvious in April/May.

Honestly, it was to me. Cueto scuffled a bit but Leake was unbelievably lucky his first 2-3 games. Cueto misses bats, something Leake doesn't do yet.

fearofpopvol1
07-25-2010, 01:13 PM
Honestly, it was to me. Cueto scuffled a bit but Leake was unbelievably lucky his first 2-3 games. Cueto misses bats, something Leake doesn't do yet.

K/9 (for 2010)

Cueto: 6.43
Leake: 5.73

TRF
07-25-2010, 01:35 PM
Closer than I thought, But Cueto can go on tears like he did in May. We haven't seen that yet from Leake.

Superdude
07-25-2010, 01:57 PM
Leake had a pretty decent May as well...

TRF
07-26-2010, 10:06 AM
Leake's May 6.34 K/9 1.15 WHIP 1.88 ERA. Stellar numbers.

Cueto's May 9.79 K/9 0.84 WHIP 1.59 ERA. Those are dominant numbers. But it's the K/9 that i was referring to. Cueto gets surges like that. Leake hasn't shown that yet. Maybe he will, but I don't think it's very likely.