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View Full Version : Drew Stubbs: If this keeps up, what to do?



TRF
04-27-2010, 04:04 PM
sue me, I was inspired. :D

I've been saying this for a couple of weeks now. I think he's been miscast as a leadoff hitter simply because he's fast. So what do we know?



He's fast
When he runs into a ball, he can hit it a long way
Elite defender
He's either slumping or his entire approach is wrong.


Let's look at points 1 and 3. Unless he get's injured or grows into some odd version of Adam Dunn, these two points should last him roughly at the level he's at, for another 6 years easy. His SB% for the year is 80%, but it's early. And SB's are overrated anyway.

Now let's look at points 2 and 4. His frame suggests power, but the results have been anything but. He had a nice burst at the end of last year, but it was one of those "one of these things is not like the others..." He never displayed that kind of power before EXCEPT at Low A. Look at his Low A splits:



AB H 2B 3B HR AVG OBP SLG OPS
Bat 1st 397 100 20 3 8 0.252 0.354 0.378 0.732
Bat 3rd 65 20 4 1 2 0.308 0.387 0.492 0.879
Bat 5th 50 17 5 1 2 0.340 0.365 0.600 0.965


The sample is smaller, Stubbs lower in the order, but a few things stick out.
His K rates are MUCH lower. In fact in his career, his highest OPS (in his minor league career) is batting 3rd.

He's miscast. The question is do the Reds see it that way? What would I do?

Send him to AAA, bat him 3rd. Maybe 2nd, but probably 3rd. Don't emphasize the speed aspect of his game, let it compliment it. Teach him a more compact swing that produces power results. Just my 2 cents.

Captain Hook
04-27-2010, 04:17 PM
Seems like we could use one of these threads for about half of the team.

dougdirt
04-27-2010, 04:22 PM
Until someone starts doing better, you play him. But for crying out loud, get him out of the leadoff spot Dusty.

TRF
04-27-2010, 04:39 PM
Until someone starts doing better, you play him. But for crying out loud, get him out of the leadoff spot Dusty.

He did do that for at least one game this past weekend right? And didn't he get a couple of hits?

heh...



AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Batting #1 48 8 5 0 1 1 4 8 0 20 4 1 .104 .232 .208 .440
Batting #7 9 3 4 0 0 0 2 0 1 1 0 0 .444 .500 .444 .944

just sayin'...

Brutus
04-27-2010, 04:42 PM
On the contrary, I think Stubbs is absolutely cut out to be a leadoff man. It seems like he grasps the approach of seeing pitches and trying to get on base. Unfortunately, I think he's putting way too much pressure on himself and he's still not ready to handle the off-speed stuff.

Until he's ready to handle the steady diet of breaking pitches and until he's comfortable hitting MLB pitching, I do think dropping him in the order is the way to go. He's clearly overmatched right now.

Tom Servo
04-27-2010, 04:47 PM
Put him at the bottom third of the lineup and give him regular playing time.

Cyclone792
04-27-2010, 04:50 PM
My offseason answer was to strictly platoon Dickerson and Stubbs. Of course, that was dependent on the Reds actually getting a left fielder who's worth a crap. Jonny Gomes is an all around disaster, and his sub .300 on-base percentage combined with his defense would render him as one of the worst all around outfielders (if not players) in the league.

At this point, I just start Stubbs every day in CF and Dickerson every day in LF. Figure out if they're going to stick or not, and quit screwing around with them.

nate
04-27-2010, 04:57 PM
Put him at the bottom third of the lineup and give him regular playing time.


My offseason answer was to strictly platoon Dickerson and Stubbs. Of course, that was dependent on the Reds actually getting a left fielder who's worth a crap. Jonny Gomes is an all around disaster, and his sub .300 on-base percentage combined with his defense would render him as one of the worst all around outfielders (if not players) in the league.

At this point, I just start Stubbs every day in CF and Dickerson every day in LF. Figure out if they're going to stick or not, and quit screwing around with them.

Beer me a high five!

RedsManRick
04-27-2010, 05:16 PM
Platoon Stubbs and Dickerson and drop him in the lineup to take the pressure off. I don't see a better in house solution.

Redsfan320
04-27-2010, 05:23 PM
Bat him 7th. He did very well the one time he was there, so of course Dusty doesn't put him there again.

320

TRF
04-27-2010, 05:26 PM
Bat him 7th. He did very well the one time he was there, so of course Dusty doesn't put him there again.

320

9 AB's. that's three games worth of AB's in that slot

REDblooded
04-27-2010, 05:44 PM
9 AB's. that's three games worth of AB's in that slot

True... But in a post-game interview he said how much better he feels hitting there. How there's less pressure and he doesn't have to force the issue... When a player is giving you that kind of information, you should probably trust it as a manager... The issue though, is that leaves the Reds without a decent option at lead-off if Dickerson and Stubbs can't handle it...

Or does it?

I still say Phillips has no business hitting 4th... Move him to lead-off... Maybe you can convince him to stop swinging for the fences in that role... I doubt it, but it's worth a shot. At the very least, you still have a lead-off hitter not clogging the bases... Bruce bats 2nd, Votto third, Rolen 4th, and OCab can hit 5th. Gomes/Nix/Dickerson in the 6 spot, Stubbs 7th, and Hernandez 8th.

Not really sure why this is so difficult for Dusty. It's that type of outside the box thinking (/sarcasm) that would allow you to mix things up without making a move... And possibly get your team out of a funk.

Will M
04-27-2010, 06:03 PM
agree with some of the posters.

the problem is that the Reds LF/CF candidates include:
1. a rookie (Stubbs)
2. a platoon CF or bench player (Dickerson)
3. a platoon LF/DH (Gomes)
4. a bench player (Nix)
5. a whole bunch of prospects who don't seem ready (Frazier, Alonso, Francisco, Hesiey)

how did this happen? Castellini refused to give Walt any money to get a real left fielder for 2010 & our prospects have disappointed so far.

what to do now:

#1 the most important thing IMO is not to impede the development of Stubbs as well as the prospects still in the minors. whether Stubbs bats 1rst or 8th. whether he plays every day or platoons or semi platoons. these decisions should be based on how best to handle his development.

#2 what i would do:

bat him 7th or 8th. why? less pressure on him.

i would also semi platoon him in CF.
he plays against all LHP (25% of games) with Gomes in LF.
against most RHP (50% of games) he play CF & Dickerson plays LF.
in the other 25% of games (lets say the really tough RHPs) he sits with Dickerson in CF & Nix in LF.
This way get starts ~75% of the games. If he starts hitting all RHP then he plays every day. If he can't hit RHP after an extended period of time then CF becomes a strict platoon of Dickerson/Stubbs. who plays LF? well by then hopefully one of the minor league guys is ready.

Spring~Fields
04-27-2010, 06:21 PM
Put him at the bottom third of the lineup and give him regular playing time.

Yes.

IslandRed
04-27-2010, 06:22 PM
I'm all for moving him down in the order, and as someone pointed out in another thread, it's not so much about pressure as approach. In the leadoff spot, he's trying to be patient, work the count, see a lot of pitches, and all that other classic leadoff stuff. But his contact skills are such that he's an easy putaway when behind in the count. Hitting lower in the order, he seemed comfortable letting it rip when a hittable pitch comes. Which, in the odd way these things happen, would probably up his walk totals since pitchers will start to reconsider the wisdom of the get-ahead fastball.

Blitz Dorsey
04-27-2010, 07:27 PM
What part of Stubbs' minor league numbers makes anyone believe that he will turn things around at the Major League level? Mediocre minor league hitters don't magically become decent Major League hitters. It's not a surprise in the least to me that Stubbs is struggling big-time at the plate this year. I would have been shocked if he had a good offensive year.

I just hope one day he is able to become an "average" Major League hitter. (Notice I didn't even say "good." I'll just take "average.") If he can get to average, then he might be an asset due to his defense and speed.

I mean, even when he played low-A ball at Dayton he was a mediocre hitter at best. Why would anyone think that Stubbs would have a chance at being a good hitter at the highest level of baseball on the planet?

RedsManRick
04-27-2010, 07:53 PM
What part of Stubbs' minor league numbers makes anyone believe that he will turn things around at the Major League level? Mediocre minor league hitters don't magically become decent Major League hitters. It's not a surprise in the least to me that Stubbs is struggling big-time at the plate this year. I would have been shocked if he had a good offensive year.

I just hope one day he is able to become an "average" Major League hitter. (Notice I didn't even say "good." I'll just take "average.") If he can get to average, then he might be an asset due to his defense and speed.

I mean, even when he played low-A ball at Dayton he was a mediocre hitter at best. Why would anyone think that Stubbs would have a chance at being a good hitter at the highest level of baseball on the planet?

He put up a collective .269/.364/.401 line; not stellar, but not exactly bad. He put up a .270, .278, and .268 average in A+, AA, and AAA respectively. He never put up a sub .350 OBP. He showed good plate discipline, with walk rates higher than 10% and scouts always believed that he had good power potential - as he displayed in college. He stole boatloads of bases at a high rate. While his BABIP was high, his speed suggests he could maintain a higher than average BABIP, such as the .325 he put up in 2009.

Other than a high strikeout rate, what part of Stubbs' minor league numbers makes anyone believe that he won't turn things around at the Major League level?

Calling him a "mediocre" minor league hitter is way too blunt of an instrument. A guy who puts up a .364 OBP, a .130 ISO and steals bases by the dozen is not "mediocre". No, he's not Jason Heyward or Justin Smoak. But that's not mediocre.

The concern always has been and continues to be his ability to make regular good contact. Last year in the majors he had a 21.1 LD%. This year, to date, he's put up a laughable 5.7 LD% along with a ridiculous 2.30 GB:FB ratio. His contact rate has dropped big time, even though his plate discipline hasn't changed. The drop is coming primarily from swings and misses in the zone. Big surprise, huh?

As an amateur scout, I see a guy who has trouble with sliders and changeups and as a result is either missing the ball completely or topping it with regularity. Pitchers now know this and are exploiting it. The guy has less than half of a season worth of PA in the majors and you're asking why we should think he'll turn it around. Again, I ask, why should we think that he won't? He hasn't had time to adjust back.

Obviously he has some work to do, but we're getting way ahead of ourselves. Players go through this all of the time. Ask Mike Schmidt and his .196/.324/.373 first full season or Phillips and his .208/.242/.311 first full seasons. Yes, those guys were younger than Stubbs is. But the guy is just 25 and in his 5th professional season. He significantly retooled his swing a few years ago as he advanced through a level a year in the minors and he's not yet had a full year in the majors. Let's give him a chance to make the most difficult adjustment before calling his ability to do so in to question.

I'm not sure what your definition of "good" is, but if Stubbs can hit .265/.350./400, with his defense and speed, he'd be a league average CF or better. And if he does add the power scouts think he can and pushes that ISO up 40-50 points, you have a Mike Cameron clone. No, I don't think he's going to be Grady Sizemore, but I don't see why it's unreasonable to think that he's got a decent shot to be a "good" major leaguer.

TRF
04-28-2010, 09:44 AM
RMR

To me it was simple, he had contact issues, K rate issues and no power. and once a league adjusted to him, it OWNED him. Only in Low A did that not happen, but then they experimented with him lower in the order in RBI slots. His approach may have been different there. He was looking for something to drive. K rates plummeted, power went up. In fact, it was like that his entire minor league career. He's completely miscast as a leadoff hitter because he clearly doesn't understand how to maximize his abilities while leading off. 3rd, 5th or 7th gives him opportunities to drive runners in. 1st, not so much.

In the minors pitchers figured this out. He saw a bunch of pitches, walked a fair amount, but because pitchers knew he couldn't hurt him with the bat, they could pitch anywhere with him to get him to chase. If he was behind 0-2 or 1-2 he was no threat to hit one out. He was a 2 outcome player: BB or K minus the power.

Bat him lower in the order. I think 6th would be good. Tell him to be aggressive and hit the ball hard, and let his physical tools take over. And for the shocker from me, if they do this, and he embraces it, he could have a better year than Jay Bruce.

fearofpopvol1
04-28-2010, 03:27 PM
He absolutely should be batting lower in the order. I think 6 would be a good spot too.

Falls City Beer
04-28-2010, 03:29 PM
This guy makes Janish look like Larkin by comparison.

(Stubbs is no kid, by the way: age 26 season right here).

TRF
04-28-2010, 03:34 PM
This guy makes Janish look like Larkin by comparison.

(Stubbs is no kid, by the way: age 26 season right here).

I've led the anti-stubbs parade since he was picked. And even I think he isn't this bad. Lower in the order is perfect for him 6th or 7th I wouldn't mind.

Sea Ray
04-28-2010, 03:36 PM
I've led the anti-stubbs parade since he was picked. And even I think he isn't this bad. Lower in the order is perfect for him 6th or 7th I wouldn't mind.

I'm thinking he's so lost he needs to go to AAA and regain some confidence. I'm all for sending him to AAA and let's see how Heisey does in Cincinnati

RedsManRick
04-28-2010, 03:43 PM
This guy makes Janish look like Larkin by comparison.

(Stubbs is no kid, by the way: age 26 season right here).

I agree he's no kid, but this is his age 25 season. He doesn't turn 26 until Oct.

Blitz Dorsey
04-28-2010, 07:35 PM
He put up a collective .269/.364/.401 line; not stellar, but not exactly bad. He put up a .270, .278, and .268 average in A+, AA, and AAA respectively. He never put up a sub .350 OBP. He showed good plate discipline, with walk rates higher than 10% and scouts always believed that he had good power potential - as he displayed in college. He stole boatloads of bases at a high rate. While his BABIP was high, his speed suggests he could maintain a higher than average BABIP, such as the .325 he put up in 2009.

Other than a high strikeout rate, what part of Stubbs' minor league numbers makes anyone believe that he won't turn things around at the Major League level?

Calling him a "mediocre" minor league hitter is way too blunt of an instrument. A guy who puts up a .364 OBP, a .130 ISO and steals bases by the dozen is not "mediocre". No, he's not Jason Heyward or Justin Smoak. But that's not mediocre.

The concern always has been and continues to be his ability to make regular good contact. Last year in the majors he had a 21.1 LD%. This year, to date, he's put up a laughable 5.7 LD% along with a ridiculous 2.30 GB:FB ratio. His contact rate has dropped big time, even though his plate discipline hasn't changed. The drop is coming primarily from swings and misses in the zone. Big surprise, huh?

As an amateur scout, I see a guy who has trouble with sliders and changeups and as a result is either missing the ball completely or topping it with regularity. Pitchers now know this and are exploiting it. The guy has less than half of a season worth of PA in the majors and you're asking why we should think he'll turn it around. Again, I ask, why should we think that he won't? He hasn't had time to adjust back.

Obviously he has some work to do, but we're getting way ahead of ourselves. Players go through this all of the time. Ask Mike Schmidt and his .196/.324/.373 first full season or Phillips and his .208/.242/.311 first full seasons. Yes, those guys were younger than Stubbs is. But the guy is just 25 and in his 5th professional season. He significantly retooled his swing a few years ago as he advanced through a level a year in the minors and he's not yet had a full year in the majors. Let's give him a chance to make the most difficult adjustment before calling his ability to do so in to question.

I'm not sure what your definition of "good" is, but if Stubbs can hit .265/.350./400, with his defense and speed, he'd be a league average CF or better. And if he does add the power scouts think he can and pushes that ISO up 40-50 points, you have a Mike Cameron clone. No, I don't think he's going to be Grady Sizemore, but I don't see why it's unreasonable to think that he's got a decent shot to be a "good" major leaguer.

I suppose our definitions of "mediocre" are different. I maintain Stubbs was a mediocre hitter at best in the minors and therefore his struggles at the plate in the Majors do not surprise me in the least. The only thing that will surprise me is if Stubbs is ever anything above an "average" hitter at the Big League level. I tend to think he will be mediocre at best in the Majors just like he was in the minors. I would love to be wrong.

fearofpopvol1
04-28-2010, 11:28 PM
Stubbs had a nice game tonight. A single and a double plus a stolen base.

OnBaseMachine
04-28-2010, 11:51 PM
From John Fay:


“Both of them are struggling,” Baker said. “Stubbs is struggling more. I’ve got to get him more aggressive early in the count. I know everybody talks about on-base percentage and working the court. But working the count isn’t helping.

“There are some pretty good guys around, like Juan Pierre, who hit what their on-base percentage is. We’re still trying to figure out what kind of big league hitter (Stubbs) is. I talked to him about being aggressive early in the count because when you’re hitting .150 with speed, the last thing they want to do is walk you. You’ve got to let them know they can’t start you off with first pitch fastball to get ahead of you.”


http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2010/04/28/baker-on-catching-leadoff/

fearofpopvol1
04-28-2010, 11:54 PM
Actually Dusty, those typically lead to quick outs and a lower OBP. Sheesh...good grief.

Homer Bailey
04-28-2010, 11:55 PM
From John Fay:



http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2010/04/28/baker-on-catching-leadoff/

:eek:

Why does this guy open his mouth?

TheNext44
04-28-2010, 11:59 PM
From John Fay:



http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2010/04/28/baker-on-catching-leadoff/

In the same article, Baker talked about the importance of clutch hitting and downplayed the importance of OBP. Somewhere RedsManRick's head is exploding.

CesarGeronimo
04-29-2010, 12:16 AM
From John Fay:

“There are some pretty good guys around, like Juan Pierre, who hit what their on-base percentage is."

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2010/04/28/baker-on-catching-leadoff/

What does this mean? That Juan Pierre's OBP is generated only by hits and not by walks, and this might be a good thing for a young guy like Stubbs to emulate?

Juan Pierre's career batting average is .299, by the way, and his career OBP is .347. He actually does not hit anything close to what his on-base percentage is, if I'm understanding what Dusty was saying.

pedro
04-29-2010, 12:22 AM
Actually Dusty, those typically lead to quick outs and a lower OBP. Sheesh...good grief.

Actually, if they're grooving you first pitch fastballs because they know you aren't swinging at them it IS a good idea to be more aggressive, at least until they stop throwing meatballs on the first pitch.

Stubbs hasn't been helping himself by getting into pitchers counts and then flailing at junk low and away when he has two strikes.

RedsManRick
04-29-2010, 01:24 AM
In the same article, Baker talked about the importance of clutch hitting and downplayed the importance of OBP. Somewhere RedsManRick's head is exploding.

I believe the term is re-exploding. I've had to piece it together many times over at this point...

From what I've seen of Stubbs' at bats, admittedly fewer than Dusty, his problem is not watching fat fastballs and falling behind 0-1. It's swinging and missing on anything other than a fastball located in the low and away quadrant of the zone. Swinging more isn't going to fix that problem...

pedro
04-29-2010, 01:42 AM
I haven't been watching closely enough to know if watching fat fastballs blow by on the first pitch is Stubb's problem, I merely wanted to point out that it is important for hitters to make adjustments to be successful in the majors and to assume that being aggressive on the first pitch, if it is a good pitch to hit, is always a bad idea, is overly simplistic. If a player can prove that he'll take advantage of that meatball and cream it will lead to more hitters counts if he can lay off the junk when pitchers start to adjust themselves.

TheNext44
04-29-2010, 01:50 AM
I think the real issue is that Stubbs just isn't a leadoff hitter. The only thing about him that says leadoff hitter is his speed. He's big and strong, and has a long swing. He should be hitting in the middle of the order.

Someone needs to show Baker film of Eric Davis. Now Stubbs is no Davis, doesn't have his power, but he is similar is so many other ways.

Both are GG CF'ers.
Both are tall and lanky, yet very strong.
Both have long swings.
Both are very fast.
Both started their MLB careers miscast as leadoff hitters.

I think Stubbs needs to stop thinking about his OBP, or taking pitches, or swinging at the first pitch, and just concentrate on just hitting the ball hard. I think that is what he was doing last year, and now is too caught up in being that leadoff hitter.

Brutus
04-29-2010, 01:55 AM
Dusty is right... sort of.

Not about the part of his downplaying OBP. It seems he's trying to get Stubbs to be a hacker, which I don't like. But his point is that Stubbs shouldn't be patient just to be patient. If he sees a good pitch early in the count, he needs to jump on it.

Make no mistake though, there's a not-so-veiled philosophical mindset that Dusty is venting in these comments and it's a little frustrating.

TheNext44
04-29-2010, 02:03 AM
I haven't been watching closely enough to know if watching fat fastballs blow by on the first pitch is Stubb's problem, I merely wanted to point out that it is important for hitters to make adjustments to be successful in the majors and to assume that being aggressive on the first pitch, if it is a good pitch to hit, is always a bad idea, is overly simplistic. If a player can prove that he'll take advantage of that meatball and cream it will lead to more hitters counts if he can lay off the junk when pitchers start to adjust themselves.

I agree.

Here's my take how every hitter should approach every at bat.

Before there are two strikes, look for a pitch you know you can crush, and crush it. If there is any doubt, then lay off of it. This is your best bet at getting a hit.

With two strikes, protect the plate. The key to being a good hitter is being able to foul off pitcher's pitches and waiting for him to throw you something you can hit. All the best hitters are great at this. Just watch the great hitters bat, they foul off a ton of pitches.

So before two strikes, be aggressive, but very selective. With two strikes, be defensive and patient.

Now, of course a big key to this is being able to recognize pitches, to be able to not get fooled by offspeed pitches, but that is more skill than approach.

GAC
04-29-2010, 04:45 AM
I think the real issue is that Stubbs just isn't a leadoff hitter. The only thing about him that says leadoff hitter is his speed. He's big and strong, and has a long swing. He should be hitting in the middle of the order.

Dusty likes speed at the top. See Taveras, Hairston, Patterson, etc. As long as that player has speed he'll act in denial at the other aspects, however lacking, in that player's game. I don't think it's because Dusty wouldn't like his lead off guy to possess those other aspects - he would - but, as long as they possess one of them (speed) he figures it's better then nothing. He'll even force the issue. He had Patterson and Hairston on his Cubs team, trying to turn them into lead off hitters, and it failed and was a source of frustration for him. Yet did he learn anything from it?

Dusty's mantra - "If at first you don't succeed, try, try, try, try, again."

Now granted, we haven't had that "typical" lead off guy in this organization for quite some time. And I don't see one anywhere currently in this organization. Dusty has to put someone there obviously.

I'm sure if Dusty had a Tim Raines he'd cement him in the leadoff spot. At least I hope he would.

How long before we see Phillips there? ;)

reds44
04-29-2010, 05:29 AM
Stubbs is fast, walks a lot, and hits for zero power.

If he's not hitting leadoff, where does he hit? 9th?

mth123
04-29-2010, 05:42 AM
Actually, if they're grooving you first pitch fastballs because they know you aren't swinging at them it IS a good idea to be more aggressive, at least until they stop throwing meatballs on the first pitch.

Stubbs hasn't been helping himself by getting into pitchers counts and then flailing at junk low and away when he has two strikes.

Agreed.

hebroncougar
04-29-2010, 07:51 AM
From John Fay:



http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2010/04/28/baker-on-catching-leadoff/

I was just getting ready to post this. If the Reds extend this guy, MY head might implode. He's stuck in 1977. Good grief..........

bucksfan2
04-29-2010, 08:59 AM
I was just getting ready to post this. If the Reds extend this guy, MY head might implode. He's stuck in 1977. Good grief..........

Not sure I disagree with anything Dusty said. Actually I think its spot on.


“Both of them are struggling,” Baker said. “Stubbs is struggling more. I’ve got to get him more aggressive early in the count. I know everybody talks about on-base percentage and working the court. But working the count isn’t helping.

In the at bats I have seen Stubbs has been good at working the count but he has taken a lot of good pitches. He isn't swinging at good pitches early in the count, he is swinging at pitchers pitch late in the count. I really can't fault much if anything with what Dusty is saying here.

HokieRed
04-29-2010, 09:14 AM
In Dusty's defense, if this organization supplied him with a real leadoff hitter, I think he'd put him there. Fact is we don't have one and we haven't for some time.

lollipopcurve
04-29-2010, 09:15 AM
Agree with Baker that a hitter like Stubbs can't get predictable taking get-ahead fastballs. He's got enough power that he can crush those, yet he doesn't have the contact skills to get behind in the count on a regular basis.

It should be expected that he would struggle. He didn't last year, so it was bound to come. Bruce is just now emerging from an extended period in which he looked bad a lot. The Reds need to be patient with Stubbs (move him down in the order, so as to keep the pressure off him) this year to see what kind of adjustments he's able to make. With Dickerson looking lost (at least to my eyes), there is no reason to short-circuit Stubbs' development path, so far as I can tell.

edabbs44
04-29-2010, 09:17 AM
Not sure Dusty said anything wrong there.

traderumor
04-29-2010, 09:26 AM
Agree with others that Dusty is basically right. Plate discipline isn't necessarily going deep into each count, even for a leadoff hitter. Plate discipline will lead to an above average OBP, no doubt about that. But that will be a function of the batter not consistently missing pitches that he can handle, either by taking or making no/poor contact, wasting pitches that are possible strikes that he can't handle, and letting pitches out of the strike zone go consistently. In other words, if he watches Joey Votto and Scott Rolen, he will get it.

TRF
04-29-2010, 09:36 AM
doug is right that Stubbs doesn't have zero power. It's that he doesn't HIT for power. Thats a big distinction.

He had a nice night. I wish this meant his problems were solved, but likely they aren't. I still think he'd be a better hitter in the middle to lower middle of the order, 5, 6 or 7.

Patrick Bateman
04-29-2010, 10:00 AM
Not sure Dusty said anything wrong there.

Actually, what he said made perfect sense. He just name dropped Juan Pierre which is obviously going to rub people the wrong way.

Sea Ray
04-29-2010, 10:01 AM
In Dusty's defense, if this organization supplied him with a real leadoff hitter, I think he'd put him there. Fact is we don't have one and we haven't for some time.

This is well put. Given his options he has to hope that someone like Stubbs "figures it out" so he can enjoy more games like last night's win vs Houston. In that game Stubbs was the sparkplug we all hope he can be. He led off with a hit and he immediately stole 2nd base. That stolen base was key to a manufactured run on Rolen's groundout. This run benefitted young Mike Leake and the Reds never trailed. Only Stubbs and Dickerson have the ability to begin a game in that fashion.

TRF
04-29-2010, 10:37 AM
Pierre has a largely hit driven OBP, and he's a guy that has hit for a decent average in his career. Your OBP is fine if you walk 40 times AND hit .300. Here is the problem; That ain't Drew Stubbs. And it shouldn't be. Pierre has no power, where as Stubbs does not hit for power. There is a difference there.

People keep comparing Stubbs to Cameron, a comp I kept refuting because that wasn't what the results showed. I may have been in error there. In fact, I'd love it if the Reds would show him some video of Eric Davis. There is potential there to be similar. He does have power, though he has no idea of how to use it. Good speed, but not a great base stealer. Excellent defender. Totally wrong for the leadoff position. He needs to approach AB's like an RBI guy. Forget about the speed as the key instrument of his game, and let it complement it.

In other words, someone needs to teach him how to hit the damn ball hard.

Brutus
04-29-2010, 11:35 AM
doug is right that Stubbs doesn't have zero power. It's that he doesn't HIT for power. Thats a big distinction.

He had a nice night. I wish this meant his problems were solved, but likely they aren't. I still think he'd be a better hitter in the middle to lower middle of the order, 5, 6 or 7.

I agree there is a difference, but the distinction, thus far, doesn't quite apply in my opinion.

So far in 272 career plate appearances, he's still holding to a .152 isolated power and 3.3% home run rate. Those are still pretty respectable power numbers for a player in his first full season.

Will those numbers look the same if he keeps struggling for a few more weeks? Not likely. But at face value based on what he's done thus far, I think we'd all be pretty happy if he could sustain those power rates going forward.

Brutus
04-29-2010, 11:38 AM
In Dusty's defense, if this organization supplied him with a real leadoff hitter, I think he'd put him there. Fact is we don't have one and we haven't for some time.

I do agree in part with Dusty's comments at face value, though not his own personal philosophy in which he's speaking from.

But here's the thing: as others have mentioned, Dusty has always had OBP-challenged leadoff hitters. I don't think if the Reds' supplied him with one they'd be at the top of the lineup - unless they were a centerfielder. I know we like to joke about that, but there's seriously enough evidence that's how he would play it. He seems to have his own ideal of what constitutes a leadoff hitter.

pedro
04-29-2010, 11:43 AM
I do agree in part with Dusty's comments at face value, though not his own personal philosophy in which he's speaking from.

But here's the thing: as others have mentioned, Dusty has always had OBP-challenged leadoff hitters. I don't think if the Reds' supplied him with one they'd be at the top of the lineup - unless they were a centerfielder. I know we like to joke about that, but there's seriously enough evidence that's how he would play it. He seems to have his own ideal of what constitutes a leadoff hitter.

I think that's silly. He values speed at lead off. If that guy played LF, 2B, SS, it doesn't matter, they'd be his guy. It just so happens that on most teams the CF is the fastest guy. It has absolutely nothing to do with what position they play. Now if that guy got on base, all the better, Dusty wouldn't have any problem putting them there.

TRF
04-29-2010, 11:43 AM
I agree there is a difference, but the distinction, thus far, doesn't quite apply in my opinion.

So far in 272 career plate appearances, he's still holding to a .152 isolated power and 3.3% home run rate. Those are still pretty respectable power numbers for a player in his first full season.

Will those numbers look the same if he keeps struggling for a few more weeks? Not likely. But at face value based on what he's done thus far, I think we'd all be pretty happy if he could sustain those power rates going forward.

Beware September stats. Especially when the bulk of that power came against the hapless Pirates.

We are a month in, and the power simply hasn't shown up. Nor has the contact. He is walking though. I think Dusty has it right in this case, and with Dickerson. Both need to be more aggressive.

Stubbs lower in the order throughout his career has been a better hitter. He likes it there, so put him there.

_Sir_Charles_
04-29-2010, 11:51 AM
Actually, if they're grooving you first pitch fastballs because they know you aren't swinging at them it IS a good idea to be more aggressive, at least until they stop throwing meatballs on the first pitch.

Stubbs hasn't been helping himself by getting into pitchers counts and then flailing at junk low and away when he has two strikes.

This.

I know many go bonkers here whenever Baker mentions OBP. But in this instance I think he's DEAD ON! He's not saying "hack away and lose the patience", he's saying don't sit on a pitch just for the sole purpose of "working the count". He's regularly getting behind in the count 0-1. I don't care WHAT count it is. He should be swinging at pitches he can drive and watching balls out of the zone. Right now, he's letting good ones sail past because they're coming early in the count. People tend to associate "aggressive" with "hacking". I don't think they're even closely related in Baker's mind.

Brutus
04-29-2010, 11:52 AM
Beware September stats. Especially when the bulk of that power came against the hapless Pirates.

We are a month in, and the power simply hasn't shown up. Nor has the contact. He is walking though. I think Dusty has it right in this case, and with Dickerson. Both need to be more aggressive.

Stubbs lower in the order throughout his career has been a better hitter. He likes it there, so put him there.

This whole thing about the September stats is overblown.

Pitchers don't stop throwing hard. They don't suddenly have less movement. Players don't stop trying to win.

It's still major league pitching. The Reds did play three playoff teams and a total of four contenders over the last 4-6 weeks of the year. It's not like Stubbs was playing against one team the entire time.

Kc61
04-29-2010, 12:07 PM
It's way, way, way too early to panic on Stubbs. He will be fine IMO. Very talented guy.

If you're going to build with youth, you need patience with these young players. Stubbs is a perfect example.

Yes, try to bat him lower in the order if possible. Yes, he needs to learn to attack pitches he can handle, even early in the count.

But he looks like a potential starting centerfielder to me and I would just give him the opportunity and watch him take some lumps.

bucksfan2
04-29-2010, 12:32 PM
It's way, way, way too early to panic on Stubbs. He will be fine IMO. Very talented guy.

If you're going to build with youth, you need patience with these young players. Stubbs is a perfect example.

Yes, try to bat him lower in the order if possible. Yes, he needs to learn to attack pitches he can handle, even early in the count.

But he looks like a potential starting centerfielder to me and I would just give him the opportunity and watch him take some lumps.

I agree with pretty much everything you said. Im not panicking over Stubbs right now. I don't think this start is his true ability, I don't know where that is, but I do think he is trying to work the count too much.

But I do think Dusty will have a problem moving him down in the order because of his ability on the base paths. Drew has elite speed and is an elite base runner. I can't recall the last Red who had that kind of speed down the line and around the bases. While Dickerson is fast, Drew takes it to an entire different level. The key is having him find first base more often. I think the issue is that Dusty sees the first inning last night and says "thats why he is my leadoff hitter".

nate
04-29-2010, 12:33 PM
I agree with pretty much everything you said. Im not panicking over Stubbs right now. I don't think this start is his true ability, I don't know where that is, but I do think he is trying to work the count too much.

But I do think Dusty will have a problem moving him down in the order because of his ability on the base paths. Drew has elite speed and is an elite base runner. I can't recall the last Red who had that kind of speed down the line and around the bases. While Dickerson is fast, Drew takes it to an entire different level. The key is having him find first base more often. I think the issue is that Dusty sees the first inning last night and says "thats why he is my leadoff hitter".

If he actually put a guy with a good OBP in the leadoff spot, he'd be able to say the same thing.

Only more often.

RedsManRick
04-29-2010, 12:48 PM
Juan Pierre and Drew Stubbs are very different players. Pierre is a good contact hitter with great speed and very little power. Stubbs is a poor contact hitter with great speed and decent power. This matters, a lot, a point which Dusty does not seem to understand.

First, Dusty needs to realize that for the majority of his career, Juan Pierre has been a sub-replacement hitter. When Pierre is hitting .280, he's hurting his team. I doubt Dusty gets this, but let's just assume Dusty was talking about the "good" Juan Pierre. In the years where he has had some value, he's acheived that value by hitting .300+, which resulted in a .360+ OBP, as Dusty rightly noted. Because Pierre has absolutely no power, this is the only way in which he can be productive. What Dusty does not seem to understand is that Pierre is a freak (in a good way).

Pierre's game is built upon two truly elite skills: contact ability and speed. Pierre has a career contact rate of 92.6% (95.3% in the zone, 83.8% out of the zone). In 2009 he was 4th in MLB, 2008 1st, 2007 4th, 2006 1st, 2005 3rd. I think you get the idea. Juan Pierre is one of the greatest contact hitters of the past 20 years. Because Pierre has no power (career ISO of .070), he doesn't stand to gain a whole lot by waiting for a particularly fat pitch. And because he has not power, pitchers aren't going to pitch around him -- he's going to see strikes. If he Pierre gets a pitch can put the ball in play, and he usually can, he might as well take a cut. Because of his skill set, Pierre's game is to put the ball in to play and run like heck. So yes, Dusty. You can be successful walking only 5.6% of the time; but you better either hit for a ton of power (like Soriano or Vlad) or make a ton of contact like Juan Pierre, David Eckstein or Placido Polanco. And even then, for the latter group, your offensive value is going to be marginal. That is not Drew Stubbs.

Drew Stubbs is not a good contact hitter; he never has been and he never will be. He struck out over 27% of the time in the minor leagues. He's at 30% thus far in the majors. His contact rate in the majors is at 73.8% (81.9% in the zone, 47.5% out of the zone). He's basically just 1 tier up from the lowest amount of contact you can make and still be a productive hitter, a tier populated by guys with crazy power like Mark Reynolds (63%),Ryan Howard (67%), Carlos Pena (70%), and Adam Dunn (72%). These are not guys who succeed by expanding their zone.

These types of hitters make up for their poor contact by a combination of not swinging at stuff they can't consistently hit well and by doing damage when they do connect. Because pitch recognition isn't perfect, especially for younger hitters, sometimes those pitches are in the zone. I promise you that Stubbs is not watching fastballs down the middle for the sake of taking pitches. It's that his effective zone is much smaller than a guy like Pierre's. In the event Stubbs isn't sure that he can make good contact, assuming he has less than 2 stirkes, he doesn't swing. This is the same approach almost every hitter takes. It's just that Pierre can make good contact with just about anything. Stubbs can't, even on some pitches in the strike zone.

We've had this conversation about Adam Dunn 1,000 times. Dusty simply does not seem to understand that there is a great amount of variation in the ability to put the bat on the ball among major league hitters, just like there is great variation in speed and power. Thus, Dusty sees strikeouts and a low batting average as largely a failure to swing at pitches that he imagines the player can hit -- even if they can't. Hitters succeed through a combination of contact, power, and discipline -- and if contact is your primary ability, it helps enormously if you supplement it with speed. But hitters of all types are most succesful when they maximize their strengths and minimize their weakness. Dusty wants Stubbs to maximize his weakness.

Stubbs, like Dunn before him, is not taking pitches because he likes to walk or because he only wants to hit HR. Stubbs takes pitches because he's he's learned that, because of his skill set, he can only be successful when he's being selective. For me, this is a perfect example of Dusty's primary failure as a manager. He simply cannot manage the team he actually has, only the team he wishes he had and the player he wishes his guys were. Yes Dusty, Stubbs is fast. But that does not make him Juan Pierre. Asking Stubbs to hit like Juan Pierre is like asking Paul Janish to hit like Adam Dunn. They have very different skill sets and need to approach their plate appearances accordingly. If you want Stubbs to emulate somebody, have him emulate somebody with a similar skill set, like Mike Cameron. Please, oh please, do not make the same mistake you made with Corey Patterson. Stubbs has strengths as a hitter, primarily one being knowing when to swing and when not to, but also the potential to crush balls that he squares up well. Don't take that away from him.

You maximize the production of an offense by maximizing the production of the players who comprise it, not by squeezing them in to predetermined roles of what you think an ideal offense looks like and asking them to change their approach to fit it.

edabbs44
04-29-2010, 12:53 PM
This.

I know many go bonkers here whenever Baker mentions OBP. But in this instance I think he's DEAD ON! He's not saying "hack away and lose the patience", he's saying don't sit on a pitch just for the sole purpose of "working the count". He's regularly getting behind in the count 0-1. I don't care WHAT count it is. He should be swinging at pitches he can drive and watching balls out of the zone. Right now, he's letting good ones sail past because they're coming early in the count. People tend to associate "aggressive" with "hacking". I don't think they're even closely related in Baker's mind.

Stubbs has started 42 PAs with an 0-1 count, versus 25 PAs with a 1-0 count. Unsure how many of those first pitch strikes he swung at.

nate
04-29-2010, 12:55 PM
For me, this is a perfect example of Dusty's primary failure as a manager. He simply cannot manage the team he actually has, only the team he wishes he had and the player he wishes his guys were.

Exactly.

pedro
04-29-2010, 01:15 PM
I have serious doubts if there is a single manager working in the majors today that many here would be happy with.

Brutus
04-29-2010, 01:21 PM
For me, this is a perfect example of Dusty's primary failure as a manager. He simply cannot manage the team he actually has, only the team he wishes he had and the player he wishes his guys were.

Might be the best synopsis of Dusty I've ever heard.

TRF
04-29-2010, 01:29 PM
This whole thing about the September stats is overblown.

Pitchers don't stop throwing hard. They don't suddenly have less movement. Players don't stop trying to win.

It's still major league pitching. The Reds did play three playoff teams and a total of four contenders over the last 4-6 weeks of the year. It's not like Stubbs was playing against one team the entire time.

And it was the Pirates. And there were September callups. Some of those guys were pitchers. Some teams are playing out the string. And sometimes guys will flash a skillset they have never shown before.

dougdirt
04-29-2010, 01:35 PM
And it was the Pirates. And there were September callups. Some of those guys were pitchers. Some teams are playing out the string. And sometimes guys will flash a skillset they have never shown before.

You continue to say Stubbs has never showed that skillset before and you continue to be wrong. Every scout who ever watched him told you about that skillset. All of them. The difference was he showed it more often than he has ever done so in a month and a half.

jojo
04-29-2010, 01:36 PM
I have serious doubts if there is a single manager working in the majors today that many here would be happy with.

They're all pretty much interchangeable...

TheNext44
04-29-2010, 01:42 PM
They're all pretty much interchangeable...

Exactly.

Only some are more frustrating to watch than others.

lollipopcurve
04-29-2010, 01:45 PM
And it was the Pirates. And there were September callups. Some of those guys were pitchers. Some teams are playing out the string. And sometimes guys will flash a skillset they have never shown before.

Pitchers Stubbs homered off in 09:

Nolasco
Oswalt
Mike Gonzalez
Y Bazardo
Zach Duke
Jessie Chavez
Howry
D McCutchen

The power was legit. Most of the pitchers were, too.

TRF
04-29-2010, 01:54 PM
You continue to say Stubbs has never showed that skillset before and you continue to be wrong. Every scout who ever watched him told you about that skillset. All of them. The difference was he showed it more often than he has ever done so in a month and a half.

Yeah. his swing screamed power in AA and AAA.

He had the tools, not the training. He doesn't know how to hit for power, except by accident. You can project the tools forever, but at some point, results matter.

Again, I think he COULD be a power hitter. I'd love for him to become Adam Dunn offensively and the thin version Andruw Jones defensively. But he has a sub .300 SLG, and that translates to is if a power hitter doesn't hit for power, then he isn't a power hitter.

"Could be" isn't "is".

edabbs44
04-29-2010, 02:01 PM
Yeah. his swing screamed power in AA and AAA.

He had the tools, not the training. He doesn't know how to hit for power, except by accident. You can project the tools forever, but at some point, results matter.

Again, I think he COULD be a power hitter. I'd love for him to become Adam Dunn offensively and the thin version Andruw Jones defensively. But he has a sub .300 SLG, and that translates to is if a power hitter doesn't hit for power, then he isn't a power hitter.

"Could be" isn't "is".

Stubbs has the ability to hit the ball far. To this point, that's all he has on his power hitter resume.

_Sir_Charles_
04-29-2010, 02:01 PM
Stubbs has started 42 PAs with an 0-1 count, versus 25 PAs with a 1-0 count. Unsure how many of those first pitch strikes he swung at.

I certainly didn't research it. Just going by what I've seen and heard. Stating a specific count was probably a mistake, but suffice it to say that he lets fat pitches sail past "early" in the count.

lollipopcurve
04-29-2010, 02:01 PM
I'd love for him to become Adam Dunn offensively and the thin version Andruw Jones defensively.

This is a ridiculous assertion because no one on the planet believes it could happen.

You need to accept that he has power and he has shown he can use it against major league pitching. Obviously, it's not a tool he's shown any consistency with. But consistency generally eludes young players. It's too soon to know what kind of numbers Stubbs will put up over time -- there's no doubt about that. Yet, he has shown that he is capable of more than you anticipated, I'd say.

TRF
04-29-2010, 02:14 PM
Pitchers Stubbs homered off in 09:

Nolasco
Oswalt
Mike Gonzalez
Y Bazardo
Zach Duke
Jessie Chavez
Howry
D McCutchen

The power was legit. Most of the pitchers were, too.

Nolasco, 2009 5.06 ERA, 23 HR in 188 IP. meh
Oswalt 2009 4.12 ERA 19 HR. Bad year for him, but a true ace.
Bazardo, 2009 7.88 ERA 1.84 WHIP. I wouldn't let him pitch in AA
Duke 2009 4.06 ERA 23 HR. His best year, but the guy is incredibly average.
Gonzalez 2009 2.42 ERA 1.20 WHIP Closer wannabe, but good/great setup guy.
Howry 2009 3.39 ERA 1.15 WHIP 63.2 IP. good reliever, stingy with the longball.
McCutchen 2009 6 starts 4.21 ERA all came as a September callup (shocking!)

Overall? meh. only Oswalt and 2 of the relievers stand out. And Oswalt had a very bad day, touched up for four earned runs. very un-Oswalt like.

Except for Oswalt, I wouldn't want a single one of those starters pitching for the Reds.

It's not an exceptional group.

TRF
04-29-2010, 02:17 PM
This is a ridiculous assertion because no one on the planet believes it could happen.

You need to accept that he has power and he has shown he can use it against major league pitching. Obviously, it's not a tool he's shown any consistency with. But consistency generally eludes young players. It's too soon to know what kind of numbers Stubbs will put up over time -- there's no doubt about that. Yet, he has shown that he is capable of more than you anticipated, I'd say.

How has he shown that? with a .606 OPS?

And your entire response dictates it could happen. With the right cxoaches, the right approach, and the right spot in the lineup, he very well could be an Eric Davis TYPE of player. HR's and SB's. But he's not Juan Pierre, no matter how much Dusty wants him to be.

dfs
04-29-2010, 02:38 PM
I think the real issue is that Stubbs just isn't a leadoff hitter. The only thing about him that says leadoff hitter is his speed. He's big and strong, and has a long swing. He should be hitting in the middle of the order. ...

You're saying he should be playing someplace other than CF?

lollipopcurve
04-29-2010, 02:50 PM
With the right cxoaches, the right approach, and the right spot in the lineup, he very well could be an Eric Davis TYPE of player.

I was responding to the Adam Dunn/Andruw Jones model you were wishing for. The 40 HRs a year, Gold Glove model you were suggesting you hoped Stubbs would become.

Talk about setting the bar impossibly high.....

He ain't going to hit 37 and steal 80 either. Just let the kid show you what he CAN do before you decide if he's a success or failure.

Patrick Bateman
04-29-2010, 02:54 PM
Nolasco, 2009 5.06 ERA, 23 HR in 188 IP. meh
Oswalt 2009 4.12 ERA 19 HR. Bad year for him, but a true ace.
Bazardo, 2009 7.88 ERA 1.84 WHIP. I wouldn't let him pitch in AA
Duke 2009 4.06 ERA 23 HR. His best year, but the guy is incredibly average.
Gonzalez 2009 2.42 ERA 1.20 WHIP Closer wannabe, but good/great setup guy.
Howry 2009 3.39 ERA 1.15 WHIP 63.2 IP. good reliever, stingy with the longball.
McCutchen 2009 6 starts 4.21 ERA all came as a September callup (shocking!)

Overall? meh. only Oswalt and 2 of the relievers stand out. And Oswalt had a very bad day, touched up for four earned runs. very un-Oswalt like.

Except for Oswalt, I wouldn't want a single one of those starters pitching for the Reds.

It's not an exceptional group.

Wow are we really going to analyze this that closely. It's a collection of major league calibre pitchers, the type you face on an everyday type of basis. Remember, the bad pitchers tend to give up more homers. He doesn't need to be doing it off the elite guys of the world, as for all, if everyone else was, they wouldn't be elite. The point is that the assertion that he was getting the power from a bunch of minor league calibre players is incorrect.

Brutus
04-29-2010, 03:00 PM
Nolasco, 2009 5.06 ERA, 23 HR in 188 IP. meh
------
Except for Oswalt, I wouldn't want a single one of those starters pitching for the Reds.



You wouldn't want Nolasco? Really?

Last year, Nolasco had a 4.4:1 strikeout to walk ratio. He struck out 9.5 batters per 9 innings. Despite his 5.06 ERA, his FIP was 3.28. He was extremely unlucky (.336 BABIP, 61% strand rate, and tERA, based on his batted ball types against him of 3.85).

In 2008, Nolasco struck out 7.88 per nine innings and gave up just 1.78 walks per nine. His FIP was 3.77.

This year his strikeouts weren't there the first few starts, so his overall FIP is 4.09, but the last two starts have been excellent against two high-powered offenses - at Philadelphia and at Colorado (a combined two earned runs in 15 innings).

I don't know why you wouldn't want Nolasco. He would be the best pitcher the Reds have had this decade.

Falls City Beer
04-29-2010, 03:02 PM
Duke's pretty unsexy, but is currently better than 60% of the Reds' rotation. Nolasco would be ace or co-ace of this staff.

Something tells me that we haven't seen the last of the 29th spot in team RA.

TRF
04-29-2010, 03:12 PM
You wouldn't want Nolasco? Really?

Last year, Nolasco had a 4.4:1 strikeout to walk ratio. He struck out 9.5 batters per 9 innings. Despite his 5.06 ERA, his FIP was 3.28. He was extremely unlucky (.336 BABIP, 61% strand rate, and tERA, based on his batted ball types against him of 3.85).

In 2008, Nolasco struck out 7.88 per nine innings and gave up just 1.78 walks per nine. His FIP was 3.77.

This year his strikeouts weren't there the first few starts, so his overall FIP is 4.09, but the last two starts have been excellent against two high-powered offenses - at Philadelphia and at Colorado (a combined two earned runs in 15 innings).

I don't know why you wouldn't want Nolasco. He would be the best pitcher the Reds have had this decade.

Yeah, I glossed over Nolasco. But my point stands, maybe two of those pitchers were quite the accomplishment, the rest were fairly replaceable.

But it goes to my larger point that he needs to develop his swing to produce power, not just have the frame and tools for it. Approach is key, and his approach isn't working. I blame the Reds more than I blame Stubbs. I'm also not sure how anyone can refute this.

Chip R
04-29-2010, 04:11 PM
Yeah, I glossed over Nolasco. But my point stands, maybe two of those pitchers were quite the accomplishment, the rest were fairly replaceable.



But they aren't exactly scrubs called up from the minors like you intimated earlier.

TRF
04-29-2010, 04:38 PM
After Nolasco and Oswalt, I wouldn't fear any of those guys. Gonzalez just lost his closer job. the rest are meh.

dougdirt
04-29-2010, 04:43 PM
After Nolasco and Oswalt, I wouldn't fear any of those guys. Gonzalez just lost his closer job. the rest are meh.

Nothing to do with fearing them.... you don't have to fear a guy for him to be a legit major league pitcher. The list you posted is full of legit major leaguers, even if not all of them are studs. I am sure we can look at the list of just about everyone's HR off list and see similar things.

TRF
04-29-2010, 04:48 PM
Nothing to do with fearing them.... you don't have to fear a guy for him to be a legit major league pitcher. The list you posted is full of legit major leaguers, even if not all of them are studs. I am sure we can look at the list of just about everyone's HR off list and see similar things.

Would you want any of those pitchers after Nolasco or Oswalt?

I don't.

dougdirt
04-29-2010, 04:54 PM
Would you want any of those pitchers after Nolasco or Oswalt?

I don't.

Given the Reds other options? Maybe not, at least the starters. But I bet you there are plenty of teams out there who could use Zack Duke's 200 innings of 4 ERA last season, including this one.

Gonzalez and Howry are legit MLB pitchers in every sense of the word. So really, we have two guys on the list that aren't good. D McCutchen and Bazardo. I bet a lot of guys have those types sprinkled in on their lists, and guys like that pitch between April and August too.

RedsManRick
04-29-2010, 05:08 PM
I can't believe we're debating which pitchers he took deep. If you don't have any power, you don't hit HR, period. Yes, given a list of 10 pitchers who gave up HR, most of them won't be great. Do you think Albert Pujols and Ryan Howard hit most of their HR off aces?

Stubbs has raw power; a lot of it. He can hit the ball really far. But Stubbs has not yet found a way to hit for power on a consistent basis while making enough contact to be a feasible professional hitter. This probably has something to do with his general inability to square up pitches other than fastballs and hanging breaking pitches. He might improve on this; he might not. Time will tell. Is this really a topic of debate?

Personally, I see a guy with Cameron like upside and Wily Mo like downside. (saw a great Bill James quote about Wily Mo recently: Wily Mo never swung and miss at a slider. They were all fastballs to him) But I know that Stubbs is not going to hit for enough power if he tries to be Juan Pierre or Ichiro and smack the ball on the ground and run. He just can't make contact enough.

He needs to simply do his thing and try to adjust to the pitches he's currently struggling with. Young hitters go through this all of the time. I honestly believe his only shot at making it is by being selective, taking walks when they come, and putting a good a swing as he can on the stuff he's able to hit.



Cameron Stubbs
BB% 11.1% 9.2%
K% 27.9% 29.5%
ISO .198 .152
GB/FB 0.78 1.34
HR/FB 13.6% 15.3%
Contact% 75.4% 73.8%

AVG .250 .242
OBP .340 .314
SLG .447 .393

I think all of those peripherals are possible for Stubbs. But make him take an approach that doesn't fit his skill set and you're asking for trouble.

TRF
04-29-2010, 05:11 PM
I can't believe we're debating which pitchers he took deep. If you don't have any power, you don't hit HR, period. If we're pointing out that most pitchers aren't aces and most HR are giving up by mediocre pitchers, let's just all agree and move on with it.

Stubbs has power; a lot of it. He can hit the ball far. Stubbs has not yet found a way to hit for power on a consistent basis. This probably has something to do with his general inability to square up the ball. He might improve on this; he might not. Time will tell. Is this really a topic of debate?

Personally, I see a guy with Cameron like upside and Wily Mo like downside. But he's not going to hit for enough power if he tries to be Juan Pierre or Ichiro. He needs to simply do his thing and try to adjust. I honestly believe his only shot at making it is by adding the power and taking the walks. He can't make for enough contact to survive otherwise.



Cameron Stubbs
BB% 11.1% 9.2%
K% 27.9% 29.5%
ISO .198 .152
GB/FB 0.78 1.34
HR/FB 13.6% 15.3%
Contact% 75.4% 73.8%

AVG .250 .242
OBP .340 .314
SLG .447 .393

Then explain his AA and AAA numbers. I'm not debating the potential, but rather the ability. His career bears that out.

Put it this way, as a professional, Stubbs has 37 career HR's in 4+ seasons. That's only 37 more than I have.

Brutus
04-29-2010, 05:58 PM
Then explain his AA and AAA numbers. I'm not debating the potential, but rather the ability. His career bears that out.

Put it this way, as a professional, Stubbs has 37 career HR's in 4+ seasons. That's only 37 more than I have.

Ability is more like potential. He's able to do it. What you're debating is his past production.

What he did in the minors has some meaning, but it has little to do with whether his raw power potential will evolve going forward.

TRF
04-29-2010, 07:35 PM
Ability is more like potential. He's able to do it. What you're debating is his past production.

What he did in the minors has some meaning, but it has little to do with whether his raw power potential will evolve going forward.

I think you are getting close to what I have been saying.

He's not Juan Pierre, so why develop him that way? His frame SUGGESTS power, but he has almost no history of it. Results matter.

Drop him in the order and emphasize a power stroke. The BB's will come when pitchers see he can hurt them.

Brutus
04-29-2010, 07:52 PM
I think you are getting close to what I have been saying.

He's not Juan Pierre, so why develop him that way? His frame SUGGESTS power, but he has almost no history of it. Results matter.

Drop him in the order and emphasize a power stroke. The BB's will come when pitchers see he can hurt them.

I agree with this 100%.

RedsManRick
04-29-2010, 11:09 PM
Then explain his AA and AAA numbers. I'm not debating the potential, but rather the ability. His career bears that out.

Put it this way, as a professional, Stubbs has 37 career HR's in 4+ seasons. That's only 37 more than I have.

I don't believe I ever said that he hit a lot of HR in the minor leagues. In fact, I said that he has yet to reliably convert his raw power in to realized power at the plate. I would say that in AA and AAA he was still modifying his swing trying to keep his contact rate up. In any event, players often develop their ability to hit for power in their mid to late 20's. But I don't know of anybody that went from a poor contact hitter to a great one.

I don't know that he'll ever hit for power. But I'd bet anybody $100 that Stubbs will have a 20 HR season before he has a .280+ average season -- unless they happen at the same time. And if he's not hitting .300, the Juan Pierre approach is a recipe for disaster.

I'm not saying he will succeed. I'm saying that if he does succeed, it will be in the mold of Cameron, not Pierre. And he should be handled accordingly. Leading him off is not putting him in a position to succeed.

kaldaniels
04-29-2010, 11:21 PM
Stubbs is a pleasure to watch on the bases. Seriously, how many "imaginary" points can we add to his OPS due to his baserunning/stealing ability....surely there is a stat for that.

RedsManRick
04-30-2010, 12:10 AM
Stubbs is a pleasure to watch on the bases. Seriously, how many "imaginary" points can we add to his OPS due to his baserunning/stealing ability....surely there is a stat for that.

You don't have to add it to his OPS, you can just count the runs. In most years, the best baserunners add in the neighborhood of 10-15 runs of production on the base paths.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=138836

Currently, Stubbs and Dickerson are tied for 7th in MLB at +1.3 runs.