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View Full Version : Mike Leake has thrown 403 pitches in 4 starts so far.



Redlegs_87
04-29-2010, 10:29 AM
http://cincinnati.com/blogs/daugherty/2010/04/29/the-morning-line-429/

M. Leake has thrown 403 pitches in 4 April starts. Thatís a pace that makes me nervous. I wondered last night why he needed to pitch the 7th, but the bad Astros made life easy for him. But at this rate, the kid will not pitch in September. Or shouldnt, if anybodyís interested in his arm.

malcontent
04-29-2010, 10:43 AM
http://cincinnati.com/blogs/daugherty/2010/04/29/the-morning-line-429/

M. Leake has thrown 403 pitches in 4 April starts. Thatís a pace that makes me nervous. I wondered last night why he needed to pitch the 7th, but the bad Astros made life easy for him. But at this rate, the kid will not pitch in September. Or shouldnt, if anybodyís interested in his arm.
Good point. Jocketty had something to say about that (potentially shutting him down in September) in the SI article.

sivman17
04-29-2010, 10:46 AM
At ASU, he had 127 IP frosh year, 121 IP soph year, and 142 IP junior year. Hopefully they will keep an eye on it and not allow him to throw more than 160-180 innings this season. But, it's going to be hard to do that with the way he is pitching.

Boston Red
04-29-2010, 10:49 AM
And he was probably throwing 125 or more pitches in a lot of his outings in college. It's obviously important to protect arms, but those college guys' jobs are to win games.

Griffey012
04-29-2010, 10:55 AM
If he averages 100 pitches per start on the season, thats not a bad average. Usually guys who average less are because their ERA's are so high. As long as we keep him out of the 110+ territory I am fine. He will have some games where he doesn't have it and probably throws 70-80 pitches and will bring the average down. All in all I would like to see him average about the 93-95 range over the course of the season.

GIDP
04-29-2010, 10:55 AM
403 pitches in 27 2/3 innings isnt all of a big deal. Thats 14 or so pitches per inning which is very good. Something to watch but right now its not a major worry to me.

redsfan_12
04-29-2010, 11:28 AM
403 pitches in 27 2/3 innings isnt all of a big deal. Thats 14 or so pitches per inning which is very good. Something to watch but right now its not a major worry to me.


Ditto

mattfeet
04-29-2010, 11:29 AM
Ditto

+1

-Matt

bgwilly31
04-29-2010, 12:40 PM
This thread should be more about how studly leake is becoming. :thumbup:

mroby85
04-29-2010, 12:46 PM
This just goes to show you a negative spin can be put on anything, lol.

Caveman Techie
04-29-2010, 12:49 PM
Yeah, add me to the group of people who don't see anything wrong with an avg. of 100 pitches per game. Also everyone brings up that Leake only had 142IP in college but then they forget about the other 30IP he had in the Arizona fall league. All together he had over 170IP last year.

arkimadee
04-29-2010, 12:59 PM
he also throws alot of breaking stuff. It's not like Mark Pryor trying to throw 100mph for 120 pitches a game. He's not giving 100% effort on each pitch so I'd say it's ok for him.

PhillipsHead
04-29-2010, 01:01 PM
He's fine. Let the kid pitch, and let him keep doing it effectively...

defender
04-29-2010, 01:58 PM
7 IP, 100 pitches, is pretty much an ideal outing. It means a lot of easy innings. Baily is averaging almost 110 pitches in only 5 1/3 innings. Baily is throwing a lot more high stress pitches.

I think when Leake has a 10 pitch 3 batter inning like the first yesterday, that is going to have very little wear and tear. It is when it gets to about 20 pitches, it starts to wear a guy down. Pitchers could throw a lot more innings, back when high pitch innings were less common.

Redlegs_87
04-29-2010, 02:32 PM
I just posted the article doesn't mean I agree with it. :p

muddie
04-29-2010, 04:11 PM
I oppose an average of 100 pitches per start. My primary reason is because this is his first year in the league and he didn't see the minors. I just don't see any reason to gamble on the kid. If this was his second or third year I might roll with it. Kid's solid though and that is a real plus in light of the start of the team this year.

Kingspoint
04-29-2010, 05:01 PM
At ASU, he had 127 IP frosh year, 121 IP soph year, and 142 IP junior year. Hopefully they will keep an eye on it and not allow him to throw more than 160-180 innings this season. But, it's going to be hard to do that with the way he is pitching.

Add the Arizona Fall League that the University of Arizona didn't have, and the 7 weeks of Spring Training that the University of Arizona didn't have, and it makes it worse.

He's had a shorter rest this Winter, and the Spring Training innings will add to his total pitch count for the year.

He might be able to handle 180 IP, max, because of his style, but he's on pace for 210 innings.

He also had fewer pitches per inning in his College Career. When you're posting and ERA around 1.00, you're not getting behind any hitters. This, too, makes his Major League pitch count that much greater.

And, don't think for one minute, Dusty Baker gives a rat's patooty. He's in the last year of his contract, and will do whatever it takes to win games.

Kingspoint
04-29-2010, 05:01 PM
I oppose an average of 100 pitches per start. My primary reason is because this is his first year in the league and he didn't see the minors. I just don't see any reason to gamble on the kid. If this was his second or third year I might roll with it. Kid's solid though and that is a real plus in light of the start of the team this year.


For example, Strasburg is on a 90-pitch count.

Kingspoint
04-29-2010, 05:02 PM
And he was probably throwing 125 or more pitches in a lot of his outings in college. It's obviously important to protect arms, but those college guys' jobs are to win games.

It was the opposite. He was throwing closer to 90 pitches in his outings as he was never behind a hitter. He breezed through his innings while compiling the ERA of 1.71 and a whip of 0.840. He did have a lot of strikouts though, and that increased his pitch count, such as his 15K, 1BB performance against Arizona where he threw in the high 120's for a pitch count.

ian_madden
04-30-2010, 12:30 AM
I say we worry about it in September. Right now, let him get people out. I went to the game when he beat the Dodgers, he is a little guy. He looks like a little kid out there. That, in my opinion, is even more impressive. That little guy, beating one of the best hitting teams in baseball. He is something special.

Griffey012
04-30-2010, 02:00 AM
I oppose an average of 100 pitches per start. My primary reason is because this is his first year in the league and he didn't see the minors. I just don't see any reason to gamble on the kid. If this was his second or third year I might roll with it. Kid's solid though and that is a real plus in light of the start of the team this year.

100 pitches is chunk change. If you can't average 100 pitches in the majors then you should learn to be a reliever. Even for a guy fresh out of college, he has been throwing 100+ pitches a game since he was a freshman in high school. Seriously, 7 innings at 15 pitches an inning is 105, and that is being efficient. If he is pitching the way he is, averaging 100 pitches per start we should be happy with it. It's when he starts to reach a number or starts he has never reached before that you should begin to get worried. Would it be maybe a little better to drop it down to 95, sure. But over the course of the season thats a difference of 150 pitches. As long as he doesn't run up any 110+ or 120+ I am ok.

TC81190
04-30-2010, 02:17 AM
100 pitches a start, I'd be more concerned if he couldn't reach that number.

This pitch count obsessive compulsion has gotten way out of hand.

Griffey012
04-30-2010, 02:37 AM
100 pitches a start, I'd be more concerned if he couldn't reach that number.

This pitch count obsessive compulsion has gotten way out of hand.

:thumbup: ding ding ding! Some pitchers throw pitches that are extremely brutal on their shoulder and elbow (Kerry Wood like), some pitchers have subpar mechanics (Volquez), and some pitchers are just overworked, wait well I can't really think of any pitcher who has had a big time injury from being overworked, that doesn't throw 95+, doesn't have a dirty slider, or doesn't have a big hook. Usually young pitchers get overworked because they have some sort of dirty pitch that is tough on the arm.

Leake throws 4 above average pitches, but none are standout automatic strike out pitches. He has good poise and good mechanics, just let the guy pitch. Think of Felix Hernandez, throws some effortless gas with 3 above average complimentary pitches, no injuries. Leake throws 4 effortless pitches, he will be fine.

Kingspoint
04-30-2010, 05:04 AM
100 pitches a start, I'd be more concerned if he couldn't reach that number.

This pitch count obsessive compulsion has gotten way out of hand.

If that was true, this thread wouldn't exist.

But, it is true, and that's why it does exist.

There's too much evidence regarding a young pitcher's arm and pitch-counts.

It's wise to adhere to them. It's foolish to ignore them.

Griffey012
04-30-2010, 11:11 AM
If that was true, this thread wouldn't exist.

But, it is true, and that's why it does exist.

There's too much evidence regarding a young pitcher's arm and pitch-counts.

It's wise to adhere to them. It's foolish to ignore them.

I feel like there needs to be a ton more work done in that area of the game for me to fully believe there is a direct causation. There are a lot more factors that relate into the injuries than just high pitch counts.

For example, to get a high pitch count you have to be pitching well or you would be pulled from the game earlier. On average, young pitchers who dominate have a brutal 12-6 hook or a nasty hard slider to go with a 96 mph fastball. These pitchers get up to the MLB early and succeed with a power repertory. They don't learn poise, control, and how to make in-game adjustments until an older age down the road, usually after arm surgery where they dont have the 96mph heater or the same bite on the breaking ball. There are few young guys like Leake who have his command, control, and ability to change speeds at his young age, every pitch Leake throws is not 100% effort, this is why his throwing of 100 pitches a game is not anything to worry about.

I would pay more attention to his average pitcher per inning, and his inning totals on the season than pitch count average. If he is throwing 100 pitches in 4 and 5 innings I am worried. If he is throwing 105 over 7 I am not worried at all.

defender
04-30-2010, 11:52 AM
Honestly, I have not looked at pitcher abuse points in about 5 years, but at that time, they seemed wortheless. They never used a control group, to determine if injury rates were even high. They seemed to have to tweak the formula every year to get the results they wanted.

Griffey012
05-04-2010, 08:41 AM
Leake sticking to his 100 pitch average. Now at 503 pitches in 5 starts.

TheBigLebowski
05-04-2010, 08:56 AM
100 pitches is chunk change.

What the crap is chunk change? Is that when you beat up a fat kid for lunch money?

flash
05-04-2010, 09:12 AM
I think it would be a concern if the Reds did not have depth. But in September the Reds will have Maloney, Chaoman, and Wood hopefully, and they can spell each other for the late starts.

Vottomatic
05-04-2010, 09:20 AM
It's not like he throws alot of heat. His breaking ball and change up are amazing.

ian_madden
05-04-2010, 11:10 AM
I'm not worried about Leake's Pitch count. As long as we keep winning, I'm ok. As mentioned earlier, he isn't a flamethrower. He's like Bronson.

Griffey012
05-04-2010, 11:13 AM
What the crap is chunk change? Is that when you beat up a fat kid for lunch money?

Haha I suppose that could work in that instance. I meant "chump change", not "chunk change." It's just a slang term for a small amount of money, such as "a new Ferrari is chump change to Ryan Howard after his new deal"

TheBigLebowski
05-04-2010, 01:08 PM
Haha I suppose that could work in that instance. I meant "chump change", not "chunk change." It's just a slang term for a small amount of money, such as "a new Ferrari is chump change to Ryan Howard after his new deal"

I knew what you meant. Just poking a little fun.

Kingspoint
05-04-2010, 04:55 PM
What the crap is chunk change? Is that when you beat up a fat kid for lunch money?


That was funny.

TheBigLebowski
05-04-2010, 07:54 PM
Alright, Drewsie....lil' contact here, please...

TheBigLebowski
05-04-2010, 07:55 PM
You hit the ball again, buddy! We are all proud.

TheBigLebowski
05-04-2010, 07:56 PM
BPhil has Maine on lockdown...wow

TheBigLebowski
05-04-2010, 07:58 PM
Votto has to start hitting.

TheBigLebowski
05-04-2010, 08:00 PM
Okay - Jay Bruce goes yard here.

TheBigLebowski
05-04-2010, 08:15 PM
Ok, so I thought I was posting in the game thread. I will accept all humorous barbs directed towards me.

Griffey012
05-04-2010, 09:54 PM
Ok, so I thought I was posting in the game thread. I will accept all humorous barbs directed towards me.

Hehehe

TC81190
05-04-2010, 10:45 PM
If that was true, this thread wouldn't exist.

But, it is true, and that's why it does exist.

There's too much evidence regarding a young pitcher's arm and pitch-counts.

It's wise to adhere to them. It's foolish to ignore them.
100 is a good safe number. And I'm not going to start losing it over 110-115 pitch counts either, especially with a low effort pitching motion like Leake has.

But to worry about a hundred pitch average per game....I just don't see the point. 100 pitches is completely okay. As I said before, I would be more concerned if he couldn't reach 100 pitches.

GIDP
05-04-2010, 10:56 PM
Votto has to start hitting.

Joey Votto has a .310 average and an OPS of .949 :laugh:

TC81190
05-04-2010, 11:13 PM
Joey Votto has a .310 average and an OPS of .949 :laugh:
I have him at .297/.420/.495/.915, but the point still stands, he's hitting the ball well and getting on at an incredible rate.

He did look a little off the 2 or 3 times I have watched a game this year, taking a knee on swings in a very Brandon Phillips like matter. But regardless, he's still raking.

GIDP
05-04-2010, 11:14 PM
I have him at .297/.420/.495/.915, but the point still stands, he's hitting the ball well and getting on at an incredible rate.

He did look a little off the 2 or 3 times I have watched a game this year, taking a knee on swings in a very Brandon Phillips like matter. But regardless, he's still raking.

That line probably doesnt count todays game.

markymark69
05-04-2010, 11:19 PM
I say he pitches five innings or throws 75 pitches every start even if he's got a perfect game going. Then we can jump on Dusty for blowing out the bullpen unecessarily. :D

Griffey012
05-05-2010, 12:48 AM
100 is a good safe number. And I'm not going to start losing it over 110-115 pitch counts either, especially with a low effort pitching motion like Leake has.

But to worry about a hundred pitch average per game....I just don't see the point. 100 pitches is completely okay. As I said before, I would be more concerned if he couldn't reach 100 pitches.

As I said before, 100 pitches is "chump change." Chuck Norris wishes he was Mike Leake.