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View Full Version : 5 starts, 5 guys step up....



Kingspoint
05-01-2010, 06:17 PM
During this last 5 man rotation, all 5 starters stepped up.

We hadn't been able to get more than 1 guy step up during any other 5-game stretch.

Tremendous effort by the starters.

It all starts again tomorrow.

Let's see if Harang learned anything from his last outing, such as how successful he can be when he stays away from serving fat pitches resulting in extra-base hits, especially when runners are on base.

(Season Average Game Score listed in Parentheses includes their latest outing)

Harang..........6.0IP, 8H, 2R, 2ER, 1BB, 6K.......Game Score=49 (39)
Leake..........7.0IP, 5H, 1R, 1ER, 2BB, 5K.......Game Score=64 (55)
Arroyo..........6.2IP, 6H, 2R, 2ER, 3BB, 7K.......Game Score=54 (46)
Cueto..........5.0IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, 1BB, 3K.......Game Score=47 (45)
Bailey..........6.2IP, 7H, 3R, 2ER, 3BB, 6K.......Game Score=49 (42)

National League Average Game Score is 50. The REDS were still next to last at an average Game Score of 45 going into Saturday's game against the Cardinals. Their problem is they aren't getting deep into games. They need more of them reaching the 7th Inning, and Cueto just to get to the 6th Inning. Leake is the one player they would rather have not getting deep into games as it would make it all the more likely that he has to be shut down in September.

These were 4 decent performances (3 were below the National League average) and 1 very good performance (by Leake). All were better efforts than what each had been doing so far on the season. You've got to love that when all 5 starters step it up collectively. I can't really remember the last time that happened by a REDS' staff.

Let's see how many of them can equal or better their last performance going into the next 5 games. I'd like to see this week if Harang can give up 3 ER's or less on Sunday against the Cardinals (avoid the Xtra-BH's w/ runners on), and to see if Cueto can get to 6.0IP and 3ER or less Wednesday at home against the Mets. Would also like to see Bailey's WHIP better than the 1.452 he had today in his next start Friday at home against the Cubs.

nemesis
05-02-2010, 10:30 PM
Harang had another quality start. One real bad pitch to Freeze. I would expect more of the same from Leake tomorrow and Arroyo following since he owns the Mets...

Kingspoint
05-03-2010, 01:59 AM
Harang had another quality start. One real bad pitch to Freeze. I would expect more of the same from Leake tomorrow and Arroyo following since he owns the Mets...

His Game Score was 46 today. (Carpenter had a 78.)

Though that is better than his season average going into the game (a putrid 39, 70th out of 77 Pitchers w/ 3 or more starts), it was worse than his last outing (49), and worse than the National League Average (50). I was hoping he'd step up again, and do better, yet.

For him, though, this is real progress. Back-to-back Game Scores of 49 and 46 are a huge improvement over what it's been. Even these two starts are below average for a National League Pitcher this season. It's horrible how REDS fans are relieved that Aaron Harang is finally pitching "below average" instead of pitching putridly.

It's still not good enough, though. He's got to start getting some Game Scores in the 50's on a consistent basis. He's got the stuff. He's just got to stay away from those extra-base hits where he serves up meaty pitches far too often. Only 5 starts left before it's do-or-die for him.

Kingspoint
05-03-2010, 02:01 AM
I never expected all 5 pitchers to match or better their last performances (3 of which are below the National League Average for Starting Pitchers). 3 would have been the most I were to expect.

So far, they are 0 for 1, as Harang failed to match or better his last performance. It will be hard for Leake to do so, as he had a very good start last time. Arroyo, Cueto and Bailey all could match or better their's, though.

nemesis
05-03-2010, 12:29 PM
I never expected all 5 pitchers to match or better their last performances (3 of which are below the National League Average for Starting Pitchers). 3 would have been the most I were to expect.

So far, they are 0 for 1, as Harang failed to match or better his last performance. It will be hard for Leake to do so, as he had a very good start last time. Arroyo, Cueto and Bailey all could match or better their's, though.

How many games have the Reds starters had that's 50 or above this season?

Kingspoint
05-03-2010, 08:42 PM
How many games have the Reds starters had that's 50 or above this season?

It's turns out I was calculating their last starts wrong. They actually have a higher number and I'm going to edit my posts with the right numbers. All of them will be about 4 points higher, which means instead of 3 of them pitching less than the Major League average, they will have pitched the Major League average.

Kingspoint
05-03-2010, 08:50 PM
The Starters' Game Scores, in chonological order of their games' pitched on the season:

AH:.....43, 64, 12, 23, 53, 52
BA:.....73, 42, 46, 09, 58
HB:.....44, 31, 34, 49, 53
ML:.....60, 49, 45, 66, 61
JC:.....54, 34, 45, 42, 51

To answer your question, there have been 9, including 6 in a row by the REDS' staff (53, 58, 53, 66, 51, 52). Let's see if Leake can make it 7 in a row and his 3rd in 5 starts. Leake is the only one with 2 in the 60's, including the best start by anyone so far for the REDS (his 66 in his last start). Just added Leake's 61 that he pitched against the Mets tonight.

Kingspoint
05-03-2010, 08:54 PM
During this last 5 man rotation, all 5 starters stepped up.

We hadn't been able to get more than 1 guy step up during any other 5-game stretch.

Tremendous effort by the starters.

It all starts again tomorrow.

Let's see if Harang learned anything from his last outing, such as how successful he can be when he stays away from serving fat pitches resulting in extra-base hits, especially when runners are on base.

(Season Average Game Score listed in Parentheses includes their latest outing)

Harang..........6.0IP, 8H, 2R, 2ER, 1BB, 6K.......Game Score=53 (39)
Leake..........7.0IP, 5H, 1R, 1ER, 2BB, 5K.......Game Score=66 (55)
Arroyo..........6.2IP, 6H, 2R, 2ER, 3BB, 7K.......Game Score=58 (46)
Cueto..........5.0IP, 5H, 2R, 2ER, 1BB, 3K.......Game Score=51 (45)
Bailey..........6.2IP, 7H, 3R, 2ER, 3BB, 6K.......Game Score=53 (42)

National League Average Game Score is 50. Every starter pitched better than the Average NL start this season. That's really stepping up. The REDS were still next to last at an average Game Score of 45 going into Saturday's game against the Cardinals. Their problem is they aren't getting deep into games. They need more of them reaching the 7th Inning, and Cueto just to get to the 6th Inning. Leake is the one player they would rather have not getting deep into games as it would make it all the more likely that he has to be shut down in September.

These were 3 decent performances, 1 good performance (by Arroyo) and 1 very good performance (by Leake). All were much better efforts than what each had been doing so far on the season. You've got to love that when all 5 starters step it up collectively. I can't really remember the last time that happened by a REDS' staff.

Let's see how many of them can equal or better their last performance going into the next 5 games. I'd like to see this week if Harang can give up 3 ER's or less on Sunday against the Cardinals (avoid the Xtra-BH's w/ runners on), and to see if Cueto can get to 6.0IP and 3ER or less Wednesday at home against the Mets. Would also like to see Bailey's WHIP better than the 1.452 he had today in his next start Friday at home against the Cubs.

I forgot we can't edit things after about 2 hours. (man, I hate that, and that they set that on purpose really sucks...the mods create more confusion than they are trying to avoid). So, I posted the "edited" Game Scores and quoted the post. The Starting Staff "collectively" stepped up even moreso than what I had tried giving them credit for doing.

Kingspoint
05-03-2010, 08:59 PM
His Game Score was 46 today. (Carpenter had a 78.)

Though that is better than his season average going into the game (a putrid 39, 70th out of 77 Pitchers w/ 3 or more starts), it was worse than his last outing (49), and worse than the National League Average (50). I was hoping he'd step up again, and do better, yet.

For him, though, this is real progress. Back-to-back Game Scores of 49 and 46 are a huge improvement over what it's been. Even these two starts are below average for a National League Pitcher this season. It's horrible how REDS fans are relieved that Aaron Harang is finally pitching "below average" instead of pitching putridly.

It's still not good enough, though. He's got to start getting some Game Scores in the 50's on a consistent basis. He's got the stuff. He's just got to stay away from those extra-base hits where he serves up meaty pitches far too often. Only 5 starts left before it's do-or-die for him.

His Game Score wasn't 46, but actually 52. I had calculated it wrong. So, back-to-back Game Scores of 53 and 52 are a "really huge" improvement over what it's been. These two starts are "above average" for a NL Pitcher this season. (average of 50) It's a relief for REDS' fans that Aaron Harang is finally pitching "above average" on the season.

He is now getting Game Scores in the 50's on a consistent basis. The corner is turning for Harang.

KySteveH
05-03-2010, 09:03 PM
Kingspoint, you have to lead the league in % of posts in one thread by the same person.

Kingspoint
05-03-2010, 10:13 PM
Kingspoint, you have to lead the league in % of posts in one thread by the same person.

Congratulations on your 500th post!

BTW, Mike Leake just made it 7 in a row by our Starting Pitchers of Game Scores of greater than 50 with his 61 today. That's also Leake's 3rd of at least 60 in just 5 starts in his young MLB career. The rest of the starters only have 2 among them. The Defense tonight didn't do Leake any favors.

Hope we can pull this out tonight against the METS.

Griffey012
05-04-2010, 01:36 AM
Lets hope the streak continues!

Kingspoint
05-06-2010, 03:45 AM
The Starters' Game Scores, in chonological order of their games' pitched on the season:

AH:.....43, 64, 12, 23, 53, 52
BA:.....73, 42, 46, 09, 58, 48
HB:.....44, 31, 34, 49, 53
ML:.....60, 49, 45, 66, 61
JC:.....54, 34, 45, 42, 51, 52

To answer your question, there have been 9, including 6 in a row by the REDS' staff (53, 58, 53, 66, 51, 52). Let's see if Leake can make it 7 in a row and his 3rd in 5 starts. Leake is the only one with 2 in the 60's, including the best start by anyone so far for the REDS (his 66 in his last start). Just added Leake's 61 that he pitched against the Mets tonight.

With only Homer Bailey left to try to repeat or better his performance, the results have been, if anything, consistent.

Harang followed up his 53 with a 52; Leake followed up his 66 with a 61, Bronson followed up his 58 with a 48, breaking the string of 7 straight starts of more than 50 points by the Starters; and, Cueto followed his 51 with a 52.

Friday against the Cubs, Bailey will be going for his 4th straight improved performance following scores of 31, 34, 49, and 53.

Kingspoint
05-07-2010, 03:01 AM
For perspective, St. Louis' Starters have an average Game Score of 60 for the entire season. Cueto's best is 54, Bailey's best is 53, Arroyo's only bettered 68 once, and Harang's only bettered 53 once.

While everyone's improvement over the last 9 starts have been great (for them), all of them other than Leake have to take it to yet another level and start giving the team some starts that have Game Scores of 60 or more. That means completing 7 innings while keeping the Earned Runs down to 2.

Each of them can do it. That's what Dusty's foremost goal is right now, and has been since the beginning of the season. His pitchers just haven't complied.

We're just on the edge of making a nice run (winning 24 of 32).

Caveman Techie
05-07-2010, 09:23 AM
I actually agree with you that the starters not named Leake have to start going longer in to the games than they have been, but in today's era of baseball it's not reasonable to expect <2 runs given up by your starters in every start.

nemesis
05-07-2010, 10:57 AM
For perspective, St. Louis' Starters have an average Game Score of 60 for the entire season. Cueto's best is 54, Bailey's best is 53, Arroyo's only bettered 68 once, and Harang's only bettered 53 once.

While everyone's improvement over the last 9 starts have been great (for them), all of them other than Leake have to take it to yet another level and start giving the team some starts that have Game Scores of 60 or more. That means completing 7 innings while keeping the Earned Runs down to 2.

Each of them can do it. That's what Dusty's foremost goal is right now, and has been since the beginning of the season. His pitchers just haven't complied.

We're just on the edge of making a nice run (winning 24 of 32).

The nice thing is Bailey has had a increase in score for his last 4 consecutive starts. To me he is the swing man in this discussion. His development into a solid #3 o4 #4 starter means the most to the team. Volquez or Chapman could become #1's... Leake looks like a solid developing #2 or #3... That would leave me fine with Cueto continuing to be Cueto as a #5. I'd take him as a #5 any day of the week. That or move him to a team who has high value for him for missing parts (LF) and create a spot for Wood who can be a quality #5 or maybe even eventually Boxberger.

Cueto is probably the most valuable trade piece we have at this point not named Votto... If I were Jocketty I'd dang him in the Market in July just to see how much is out there for a 24 year old starter with 3 years of control left.

Kingspoint
05-07-2010, 06:57 PM
The nice thing is Bailey has had a increase in score for his last 4 consecutive starts. To me he is the swing man in this discussion.

I agree.

I thought that by the end of the season, he would have proven to be the ACE of the staff. I'm not so sure now with his slow start, but the 4 consecutive improvements is a great sign. He needs to make it 5 tonight.

I certainly didn't see this coming what we've got in Leake. Though I know I'm not alone there.

Kingspoint
05-07-2010, 07:01 PM
I actually agree with you that the starters not named Leake have to start going longer in to the games than they have been, but in today's era of baseball it's not reasonable to expect <2 runs given up by your starters in every start.

No, it's not reasonable. But, we're chasing the Cardinals. They're starters have an ERA of 3.02 (or something like that). That's 2 Earned Runs for 6 innings. I would like to see us matching the Cardinals. There's no reason to think that if Harang can make this a trend (3 decent starts in a row, though not as good as the average Cardinal), instead of a coincidence (2 decent starts in a row), that his results alone will lift the whole staff. He still is considered it's leader and ACE. If he starts pitching at least "decently" every start, the whole staff will follow (as they've been doing since he began this 9-game stretch of decent starts).

Also, with the extra day off yesterday, every starter gets an extra day off. Would really like to see all of them get into the 7th inning and 3 of them finish the 7th inning.

Kingspoint
05-11-2010, 11:19 PM
Cueto ended up with a Game Score of "93"!!!!

Wow!

Just so you know how impressive that is....Carlos Zambrano, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Mark Buerhle have each only had 2 starts apiece in their careers with Game Scores in the "90's". Tim Lincecum's only had one....per http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_score


That's now 4 straight starts by our Starters of at least "60".

Let's go, Homer!!! You can do it.

GIDP
05-12-2010, 12:06 AM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_score#Career_totals_for_some_pitchers

that was updated quick.

Kingspoint
05-12-2010, 03:39 AM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_score#Career_totals_for_some_pitchers

that was updated quick.

I didn't do it, I swear.

I do have some apprehension about the accuracy, though. It's just hard to believe that Halladay has only had 2 in the "90's".

I'm going to have to check that out.

Kingspoint
05-12-2010, 03:54 AM
I didn't do it, I swear.

I do have some apprehension about the accuracy, though. It's just hard to believe that Halladay has only had 2 in the "90's".

I'm going to have to check that out.

As I suspected...

That's why I try to always give a source for any stat. And, Wikipedia, of course, is not a reliable source.

I checked www.baseball-reference.com and looked up Roy Halladay. I didn't look up all of his starts, but it gives an easy listing of his best Game Score for every season, meaning he could have more than one with the same score or one or more with a point or two or three or four less and have multiple Game Scores of 90 in the same season. Baseball-reference is a pretty reliable source. I'll go with them without checking further.

Here are Halladay's best each season:

1998.....89
1999.....79
2000.....57
2001.....91
2002.....87
2003.....90
2004.....77
2005.....93
2006.....80
2007.....83
2008.....90
2009.....91
2010.....86

So, there's 5, at least. That's a lot more than the 2 that wikipedia says Halladay has. Halladay is right now, the current active leader in shutouts with 17 (Carpenter's 2nd w/ 13). Just 16 more to go, Johnny.

Anyway, Cueto's got one, and as good as any game Halladay has ever thrown.

Kingspoint
05-12-2010, 05:38 AM
With that great performance by Cueto, he's increased his Average Game Score by 7 points.

Here are everyone's average Game Scores through Tuesday, May 11th:

Leake..........57
Cueto..........53
Arroyo.........49
Harang........44
Bailey..........39

National League Average right now is 51.

But, when you look at what each have done over their last 3 performances, those numbers have been amazing, except for Bailey (and Bailey had 2 of 3 good performances with a 49 and 53 to go with the 22 from his last start):

The Starters' Average Game Score (in Bold at end) for their last 3 starts:

AH.....53, 52, 60.....55
ML.....66, 61, 62.....63
BA.....58, 48, 64.....57
JC.....51, 52, 93.....65
HB.....49, 53, 22.....41

That's really impressive. The collective effort that our Starters have put together have been tremendous. Let's see if Homer can put a final touch on this before tomorrow's day off and the preparation for the Cardinals coming to town (and the Civil Right's game).

Kingspoint
05-12-2010, 06:08 AM
Also, with the extra day off yesterday, every starter gets an extra day off. Would really like to see all of them get into the 7th inning and 3 of them finish the 7th inning.

So far, so good.

Harang got two outs in the 7th.
Leake completed the 7th.
Bronson completed the 7th.
Cueto threw a 9-inning shutout.

Our bullpen is getting rest.

One more Starter to step up to the task. Bailey's turn to get at least one out in the 7th inning Wednesday.

Mr Larkin
05-12-2010, 04:40 PM
Bailey threw a complete game as well - back-to-back complete games. How long has it been since our pitching staff threw back-to-back complete game shutouts. A decade or more. Almost as impressive is the 1 run given up in 27 innings.

mattfeet
05-12-2010, 04:44 PM
Bailey threw a complete game as well - back-to-back complete games. How long has it been since our pitching staff threw back-to-back complete game shutouts. A decade or more. Almost as impressive is the 1 run given up in 27 innings.

21 years. 1989.

-Matt

Moosie52
05-12-2010, 04:49 PM
Whatever the aliens did to our starters, let's keep to ourselves.

Seņor Rojo
05-12-2010, 09:59 PM
How much does Bryan Price have to do with the last 5 outstanding outings from all 5 players? Cueto and Bailey with back-to-back shutouts, unbelievable. I know it's the Pirates, the AAAA farm team of the majors, but it seems like these guys are starting to get it. Harang has come back with a few good outings after a dismal 2009 season. Leake has been impressive since his first start. With Volquez coming back and Chapman in the wings, this young rotation has shown a lot of potential and hopefully Price can teach them how to realize this potential.

Kingspoint
05-13-2010, 01:21 AM
How much does Bryan Price have to do with the last 5 outstanding outings from all 5 players? Cueto and Bailey with back-to-back shutouts, unbelievable. I know it's the Pirates, the AAAA farm team of the majors, but it seems like these guys are starting to get it. Harang has come back with a few good outings after a dismal 2009 season. Leake has been impressive since his first start. With Volquez coming back and Chapman in the wings, this young rotation has shown a lot of potential and hopefully Price can teach them how to realize this potential.

I think it has a lot to do with Bryan Price.

We all talked about it in the off-season that if anyone was going to turn Harang around, it would be Price; and, about how valuable a Pitching Coach Bryan has been at his previous stops.

It's only fair to include today's performance in Homer's "last 3 starts" because this all started 15 starts ago with a Harang start, followed in order by Leake, Bronson, Cueto and Homer. So, now this has been three complete turns of the starting rotation. With 5 solid starters, everyone's going to benefit, as the whole group will get 6 days rest whenever there's an off day.

It's unbelievable that our Relievers are going to have 3 full days of rest. It's like an All-Star Break. The timing couldn't have been better.

The Starters' Average Game Score (in Bold at end) for their last 3 starts:

AH.....53, 52, 60.....55
ML.....66, 61, 62.....63
BA.....58, 48, 64.....57
JC.....51, 52, 93.....65
HB.....53, 22, 85.....53

NL average for the season is 51.

That's an average score of 59 (actually 59.33) over their last 15 starts. (The Cards are averaging 59 for the whole season and the Giants are averaging 59 to rank 1st and 2nd in the NL.) I think we can honestly say now that we've got as good of a Starting Rotation as there is in the National League. The improvement should only continue for every one of these pitchers for different reasons. (Because the REDS' starters got off to such a poor start, they are still ranked 14th out of 16 NL teams, but they are rising fast. This effort by Homer could move them up to 12th. A month from now they could be 5th or 6th.

Kingspoint
06-15-2010, 09:48 PM
Haven't visited this in a while. The Starters have taken a step back From May 12th:

The Starters' Average Game Score (in Bold at end) for their last 3 starts:

AH.....53, 52, 60.....55
ML.....66, 61, 62.....63
BA.....58, 48, 64.....57
JC.....51, 52, 93.....65
HB.....53, 22, 85.....53

NL average for the season is 51.

Here's what the Starters have done each of their last 6 starts (covering 25 games) Average in BOLD. NL average is still 51 for the season:

AH...43, 43, 40, 67, 41, 59.....49
ML...58, 59, 56, 58, 66, 19.....53
BA...66, 44, 70, 11, 66, 46.....50.5
JC...65, 59, 73, 14, 40, 44.....49
SL...53, 44, 57, 47.....50
HB...57, 47.....52

While those "average" scores are very similar, Leake pitched very well in 5 of 6 starts, Harang in 2 of 6, Cueto in 3 of 6, Arroyo pitched "great" in 3 of 6, LeCure well in 2-1/2 of 4, and Bailey in 1-1/2 of 2.

Harang just consistely pitches his team out of games....like tonight's performance.

Kingspoint
06-15-2010, 09:53 PM
Haven't visited this in a while. The Starters have taken a step back From May 12th:

The Starters' Average Game Score (in Bold at end) for their last 3 starts:

AH.....53, 52, 60.....55
ML.....66, 61, 62.....63
BA.....58, 48, 64.....57
JC.....51, 52, 93.....65
HB.....53, 22, 85.....53

NL average for the season is 51.

Here's what the Starters have done each of their last 6 starts (covering 25 games) Average in BOLD. NL average is still 51 for the season:

AH...43, 43, 40, 67, 41, 59.....49
ML...58, 59, 56, 58, 66, 19.....53
BA...66, 44, 70, 11, 66, 46.....50.5
JC...65, 59, 73, 14, 40, 44.....49
SL...53, 44, 57, 47.....50
HB...57, 47.....52

While those "average" scores are very similar, Leake pitched very well in 5 of 6 starts, Harang in 2 of 6, Cueto in 3 of 6, Arroyo pitched "great" in 3 of 6, LeCure well in 2-1/2 of 4, and Bailey in 1-1/2 of 2.

Harang just consistely pitches his team out of games....like tonight's performance.

Take away the worst performance of each Pitcher (combine Bailey and LeCure's) and the Average Game Score changes greatly:

AH...43, 43, 40, 67, 41, 59.....51
ML...58, 59, 56, 58, 66, 19.....59
BA...66, 44, 70, 11, 66, 46.....58
JC...65, 59, 73, 14, 40, 44.....56
SL...53, 44, 57, 47.....52
HB...57, 47.....57