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View Full Version : the 16-8 Cards are really good



Will M
05-01-2010, 10:49 PM
preseason i looked at the Cards as being fairly generic outside the "Big Four". looks like i was wrong.
so far several other players are playing really well: Rasmus, Ludwick, Penny & Garcia to name a few.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/STL/2010.shtml
There's a reason they are 16-8. The rest of the division is .500 at best.
Unless several of these guys 'come back to earth' the Reds/Brewers/Cubs could be looking at wild card or go home by mid season.

Ghosts of 1990
05-02-2010, 12:44 AM
Reyes, Hawksworth, Franklin and Molina have all been pretty good as well.

Mario-Rijo
05-02-2010, 03:46 AM
preseason i looked at the Cards as being fairly generic outside the "Big Four". looks like i was wrong.
so far several other players are playing really well: Rasmus, Ludwick, Penny & Garcia to name a few.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/STL/2010.shtml
There's a reason they are 16-8. The rest of the division is .500 at best.
Unless several of these guys 'come back to earth' the Reds/Brewers/Cubs could be looking at wild card or go home by mid season.

They usually do end up being better than they appear on paper, that's smart roster construction and of course genuine coaching/managing. That said I do strongly believe if this team of ours plays up to their capabilities we can be right there nipping at their heels all season and if so that makes us a leader for a W/C if St. Louis doesn't slip.

RedEye
05-02-2010, 09:22 AM
They usually do end up being better than they appear on paper, that's smart roster construction and of course genuine coaching/managing. That said I do strongly believe if this team of ours plays up to their capabilities we can be right there nipping at their heels all season and if so that makes us a leader for a W/C if St. Louis doesn't slip.

I tend to agree with you. The Reds are at .500 after the first month despite...

* terrible starting pitching across the board (other than Leake)
* an offense that was basically comprised of 2.5 players
* an unexpectedly fragile bullpen and porous defense

Two key players--Bruce and Bailey--have recently begun to show signs of life, as have some previously reliable vets (Harang comes to mind). I think the Reds could end up being pretty good after all. *Knock on wood*

Will M
05-02-2010, 03:03 PM
here's a mental exercise. lets say Pujols tore an elbow ligament & needed TJ surgery (and was out for the year).

Cards would have Holliday, Rasmus & Ludwick to bat 3-4-5.
Support players Molina, Freese, Shumaker.
Two aces & two other pitchers pitching well (Penny & Garcia).
A deep if not overpowering pen.

The Reds would be about equal offensively. Better pen & defense but worse starters.

So WITHOUT Pujols the teams are about equal IMO. The way the Cards have played so far I can see them winning 100 games. The Reds? Hope for 85.

VR
05-02-2010, 03:55 PM
I think the Reds can compete with them on most days. Nearly every player is playing over their head so far this year....many will come back to earth.

The Reds have nearly every player off to a dismal start, and yet are around
.500.

I'm not crowning the birds just yet.

OnBaseMachine
05-02-2010, 04:16 PM
The Reds have held Ryan Ludwick, Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, and Colby Rasmus in check this series, mostly limiting them to singles and walks, and yet the Reds are on the verge of losing two of three because they can't get scrubs like Brendan Ryan, David Freese, Nick Stavinoha out. Oh, and the offense scoring just six runs in three games didn't help either. The Reds should have won two out of three. They had a chance to open some eyes by winning a series in St. Louis but they failed to do so.

OnBaseMachine
05-02-2010, 04:28 PM
BTW, If I was Dusty Baker I would tell my pitchers the next time they walk a hitter in front of Albert Pujols they will immediately be fined after the game.

VR
05-02-2010, 04:31 PM
BTW, If I was Dusty Baker I would tell my pitchers the next time they walk a hitter in front of Albert Pujols they will immediately be fined after the game.

Wouldn't it be nice if the Reds hitters ahead of Votto to have the same kind of awareness of their main goal in life?

Caveat Emperor
05-02-2010, 04:33 PM
BTW, If I was Dusty Baker I would tell my pitchers the next time they walk a hitter in front of Albert Pujols they will immediately be fined after the game.

He's probably a good part of the reason why people are getting walked -- pitchers aren't focusing on the guy at the plate, they're thinking about the guy in the on-deck circle.

Incidentally -- I can't wait until Pujols gets dealt at the deadline when the Cardinals realize they can't afford to re-sign him.

hebroncougar
05-02-2010, 04:35 PM
He's probably a good part of the reason why people are getting walked -- pitchers aren't focusing on the guy at the plate, they're thinking about the guy in the on-deck circle.

Incidentally -- I can't wait until Pujols gets dealt at the deadline when the Cardinals realize they can't afford to re-sign him.

They've got an option on him for next year, which at $16 million is a bargain.

Caveat Emperor
05-02-2010, 04:38 PM
They've got an option on him for next year, which at $16 million is a bargain.

I thought it was a player option for 2011 -- my mistake. He should seek new representation for the next contract, in that case.

OnBaseMachine
05-02-2010, 04:39 PM
Incidentally -- I can't wait until Pujols gets dealt at the deadline when the Cardinals realize they can't afford to re-sign him.

Agreed. I hope the Yankees offer him a deal he can't refuse.

fearofpopvol1
05-02-2010, 05:19 PM
Agreed. I hope the Yankees offer him a deal he can't refuse.

I don't think the Yanks will be in play with all that money tied in Tex. I think the Red Sox on the other end may be big players.

Anyway, the Cards are ridiculously good. I think I might take their rotation over any other in baseball right now. I think they might be World Series bound.

Spring~Fields
05-02-2010, 05:37 PM
Cards RS 117 RA 76 DIFF +41
117/25 4.68, projection RS 758
76/25 3.04, projection RA 492, 758 - 492 projection DIFF +266

Cubs RS 129 RA 117 DIFF +12
129/26 4.96, projection RS 803
117/26 4.50, projection RA 729, 803 - 729 projection DIFF +74

Brewers RS 128 RA 130 DIFF -2
128/24 5.33, projection RS 864
130/24 5.42, projection RA 878, 864 - 878 projection DIFF -14

Reds RS 109 RA 138 DIFF -29
109/25 4.36, projection RS 706,
138/25 5.52, projection RA 894, 706 - 894 projection DIFF -188

Houston RS 72 RA 116 DIFF -44
72/24 3.00, projection RS 486
116/24 4.83, projection RA 782, 486 - 782, projection DIFF -296

Pirates RS 83 RA 166 DIFF -83
83/24 3.46, projection RS 560
166/24 6.92, projection RA 1121, 560 - 1121, projection DIFF -561

Caveat Emperor
05-02-2010, 05:46 PM
Anyway, the Cards are ridiculously good. I think I might take their pitching coach over any other in baseball right now. I think they might be World Series bound.

Fixed it for you.

There's no doubt in my mind that just about every Reds pitcher would be better, more prepared, and more effective if they had been working with Dave Duncan since becoming major leaguers.

Guys like Cueto & Bailey would have probably have benefited tremendously.

GADawg
05-02-2010, 08:43 PM
BTW, If I was Dusty Baker I would tell my pitchers the next time they walk a hitter in front of Albert Pujols they will immediately be fined after the game.

your right but it was even more than that...pitching behind to every hitter is clearly a recipe for disaster....even Paul Keels know that and as a baseball mind he's a good football broadcaster. Why do you nibble to freakin' leadoff man hitting .200?

Caveat Emperor
05-02-2010, 08:53 PM
your right but it was even more than that...pitching behind to every hitter is clearly a recipe for disaster....even Paul Keels know that and as a baseball mind he's a good football broadcaster. Why do you nibble to freakin' leadoff man hitting .200?

I hate that term.

When you just miss, you're "nibbling." When you throw a good pitch, it's "painting the corner." The difference between the two terms is a matter of a few inches.

What would you rather a pitcher do? Groove a fastball right over the heart of the plate and let the guy park it in the seats?

GADawg
05-02-2010, 09:12 PM
I hate that term.

When you just miss, you're "nibbling." When you throw a good pitch, it's "painting the corner." The difference between the two terms is a matter of a few inches.

What would you rather a pitcher do? Groove a fastball right over the heart of the plate and let the guy park it in the seats?

yep actually I would...not to the 3-4 hitters neccessarily but to the .200 hitting leadoff men I'm down with taking my chances...the walks and deep counts are poison...defenders on their heels is a cliche' for a reason(like all cliche's I suppose). The difference between nibbling and painting the corner, in my opinion, is that if you're good enough to paint the corner you do it...if you aren't then you nibble. Judging by the pitch counts and the fact that the opposition always seems to be in a "hitters count" then I'd say our guys have been nibbling.

fearofpopvol1
05-03-2010, 02:14 AM
Fixed it for you.

There's no doubt in my mind that just about every Reds pitcher would be better, more prepared, and more effective if they had been working with Dave Duncan since becoming major leaguers.

Guys like Cueto & Bailey would have probably have benefited tremendously.

No doubt Duncan helps, but the Pitchers still have to take the mound and produce.

Falls City Beer
05-03-2010, 10:13 AM
The Cardinals are downright burdened with TOR production. 4/5th of their rotation is better than the Reds' best pitcher.

Roy Tucker
05-03-2010, 10:21 AM
Pujols is the 800 lb. gorilla of this lineup. He affects the whole from #1 to #6 slots.

He gets up off the bench to pick out a bat and you can hear the Jaws theme. He's gotten to be like how Bonds was in his prime. The guy is ridiculous. Don't think about it, just walk him and put him on first base. Don't ever try to get him out, you're only fooling yourself.

Falls City Beer
05-03-2010, 10:25 AM
I'm actually a little unimpressed so far with their offense outside of Pujols and Rasmus. The Cardinals can literally crabwalk to this division title--they're not going to hear a single footstep; but they're going to do so because they've assembled their best pitching staff since Larussa became manager there. This is pretty clearly a 100+ win team. U

Hoosier Red
05-03-2010, 10:34 AM
I'm actually a little unimpressed so far with their offense outside of Pujols and Rasmus. The Cardinals can literally crabwalk to this division title--they're not going to hear a single footstep; but they're going to do so because they've assembled their best pitching staff since Larussa became manager there. This is pretty clearly a 100+ win team. U

A lot of that depends on if Jaime Garcia and Brad Penny are for real. If they are you're right. No one's getting within 10-15 games.

Falls City Beer
05-03-2010, 10:38 AM
A lot of that depends on if Jaime Garcia and Brad Penny are for real. If they are you're right. No one's getting within 10-15 games.

What do you mean "for real?" Garcia's probably not going to have a 1.00 ERA for the season, no, but both pitchers' stuff looks very, very real to me--and they're throwing it for strikes. Unless they get injured, they're going to be TOR, or at bare minimum, a shade below TOR.

lollipopcurve
05-03-2010, 11:10 AM
What do you mean "for real?" Garcia's probably not going to have a 1.00 ERA for the season, no, but both pitchers' stuff looks very, very real to me--and they're throwing it for strikes. Unless they get injured, they're going to be TOR, or at bare minimum, a shade below TOR.

Long way to go, and little on the resumes of either guy to suggest they'll turn in TOR-style seasons in 2010.

But hey, no one said fantasizing about the Cardinals in Redsville has to be the sole property of George Grande.

Falls City Beer
05-03-2010, 11:16 AM
Long way to go, and little on the resumes of either guy to suggest they'll turn in TOR-style seasons in 2010.

Maybe not. But why not give them the benefit of the doubt? They've only earned it for 14 seasons.

kaldaniels
05-03-2010, 11:54 AM
Dave Duncan this. Larussa that. Etc.

Don't forget the Cards spent 300 million more on payroll than the Reds over the past 10 years.

westofyou
05-03-2010, 12:10 PM
Dave Duncan this. Larussa that. Etc.

Don't forget the Cards spent 300 million more on payroll than the Reds over the past 10 years.

http://lonestartimes.com/images/Benzion/Oz_Curtain.JPG

Hoosier Red
05-03-2010, 12:59 PM
What do you mean "for real?" Garcia's probably not going to have a 1.00 ERA for the season, no, but both pitchers' stuff looks very, very real to me--and they're throwing it for strikes. Unless they get injured, they're going to be TOR, or at bare minimum, a shade below TOR.

I admittedly haven't seen them pitch much. I only have seen the results. If Jaime Garcia is more Zach Greinke than Chris Hammonds circa 1991, they'll be in great shape.

Falls City Beer
05-03-2010, 03:02 PM
I admittedly haven't seen them pitch much. I only have seen the results. If Jaime Garcia is more Zach Greinke than Chris Hammonds circa 1991, they'll be in great shape.

Heck, even if he's just Cole Hamels of last year, that spells massive trouble for the NL Central. He doesn't have to be Greinke at all.

membengal
05-06-2010, 04:05 PM
Just dropped three straight in Philly, and while losing to Roy Halladay is clearly understandable, they were also shutout by the immortal Kyle Kendrick last night.

I am curious as to what LaRussa's excuses will be for the three losses.

OnBaseMachine
05-06-2010, 04:11 PM
Just dropped three straight in Philly, and while losing to Roy Halladay is clearly understandable, they were also shutout by the immortal Kyle Kendrick last night.

I am curious as to what LaRussa's excuses will be for the three losses.

The balls were too slick.

Oh, and that fan running on the field the other night disrupted the timing of Cardinals hitters.

LincolnparkRed
05-06-2010, 05:23 PM
Just dropped three straight in Philly, and while losing to Roy Halladay is clearly understandable, they were also shutout by the immortal Kyle Kendrick last night.

I am curious as to what LaRussa's excuses will be for the three losses.

they didn't feel safe when they were at the plate. Even though the batter stands up there with a large piece of timber to defend himself

PuffyPig
05-06-2010, 07:42 PM
I doubt Penny and especially Garcia are going to be TOR or near TOR starters all year.

Garcia has never had that upside.

Spring~Fields
05-06-2010, 10:49 PM
The balls were too slick.

Oh, and that fan running on the field the other night disrupted the timing of Cardinals hitters.

Nah they were just out spent.

Philadelphia Phillies $ 141,928,379 :)
St. Louis Cardinals $ 93,540,751
Cincinnati Reds $ 71,761,542

Captain Hook
05-06-2010, 11:09 PM
I know it's very convenient to say it now and yes I know,Phillie is pretty good but I think St. Louis is very overrated.Probably still the best team in the division but certainly not as great as they're being made out to be.They have some guys off to nice starts but over the long haul if Albert isn't going 3-4 with a HR or driving in a bunch of runs,they're loosing a lot of the time(unless a healthy Carptenter is pitching).At this point in the season team records are a bit overrated.The Nats are over .500 and there's probably 2 or 3 teams sitting near the bottom of their respected divisions that still are favorites to earn PO berths imo.

I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see the Central end up being a 3 to 4 team race heading into the final weeks of the season.

Captain Hook
05-06-2010, 11:36 PM
By the way, it looks like the only strong playoff contenders that the Cards have played this year have been Philli and San Fran and managed to go just 1-5 against those teams.Make no mistake, I would include St. Louis as one of the teams with a strong chance to reach the post season, I'm just saying they shouldn't be thought of as a sure thing.

Spring~Fields
05-06-2010, 11:40 PM
You may be right to discount the Cards, they probably aren't a great team. How much does discounting the Cards, discount the teams below the Cards in the Central even more? I mean how bad are they really?

TheNext44
05-06-2010, 11:49 PM
Reds are only 3 1/2 games behind the Cards and in sole possession of second place in the central after tonight.

Captain Hook
05-07-2010, 12:04 AM
You may be right to discount the Cards, they probably aren't a great team. How much does discounting the Cards, discount the teams below the Cards in the Central even more? I mean how bad are they really?

I'm not really discounting them as a decent/good team, just saying that they they aren't even in the conversation for best in baseball and while maybe they could be included if that conversation was National League only they'd easily fall short.

If everything goes as planned for all the teams in the Central then the Cards will win the division.So far this year the Card are about the only team in the division that everything has gone as planned.I don't think this will go on for the entire season.

forfreelin04
05-07-2010, 12:43 AM
I'm not really discounting them as a decent/good team, just saying that they they aren't even in the conversation for best in baseball and while maybe they could be included if that conversation was National League only they'd easily fall short.

If everything goes as planned for all the teams in the Central then the Cards will win the division.So far this year the Card are about the only team in the division that everything has gone as planned.I don't think this will go on for the entire season.

I think your dead on about this Captain. The Cards aren't in the same class as the Phillies, Giants, or maybe even the Rockies. I think the Pads will come back to Earth by July.

However, with the pitching and Pujols they don't need everything to go as planned to still runaway with the division. I'd be shocked if Penny, Carpenter, and Wainwright all made it through the year without a stint on the DL. BUT, I can easily see the same sort of injuries occuring to a team like the Reds, Cubs, or Brewers that would easily sink their ship much faster than the Cards.

Ron Madden
05-07-2010, 03:21 AM
It's a long season. Sometimes you can win 3 in a row, another time you could lose 3 in a row.

I want the Reds to make the playoffs as much as anyone in Reds Country but it's far too early to print those tickets. I'm not counting ST LOUIS out this early .

PuffyPig
05-07-2010, 07:31 AM
It's a long season. Sometimes you can win 3 in a row, another time you could lose 3 in a row.

I want the Reds to make the playoffs as much as anyone in Reds Country but it's far too early to print those tickets. I'm not counting ST LOUIS out this early .

No one said anything about counring the Cards out; in fact, everyone is saying they are the class of the division.

It's just that the Cards aren't the class of the NL.

bucksfan2
05-07-2010, 09:37 AM
I think your dead on about this Captain. The Cards aren't in the same class as the Phillies, Giants, or maybe even the Rockies. I think the Pads will come back to Earth by July.

However, with the pitching and Pujols they don't need everything to go as planned to still runaway with the division. I'd be shocked if Penny, Carpenter, and Wainwright all made it through the year without a stint on the DL. BUT, I can easily see the same sort of injuries occuring to a team like the Reds, Cubs, or Brewers that would easily sink their ship much faster than the Cards.

I really think its the Phillies and everybody else. The thing that separates the Phillies is not only their great offense but the Hammer in Halliday.

I truly believe that the Reds can play with most if not all other teams in the NL. While some teams may look better they all have their warts, pretty substantial if you ask me. I do believe its up to Walt to add another bat to this team in order to stay competitive throughout the season. Maybe its a Frazier or Alonso but I think its going to have to come from outside.

Homer Bailey
05-07-2010, 10:16 AM
I'm sorry, but Brad Penny and TOR should not ever be mentioned in the same sentenced unless you are referring to Toronto.

nate
05-07-2010, 10:24 AM
TOR should not ever be mentioned

Agreed!

:cool:

Spring~Fields
05-07-2010, 12:33 PM
Agreed!

:cool:

I'm starting to think that Duncanís and the St. Louis Cardinals decade or so of pitching success is in the performance enhancing mud.