Drew Stubbs

[RedEye]

when i was a kid & two old boys fought one would cry 'uncle' when he had had enough. i am not sure why he cried 'uncle' instead of 'i surrender' or 'stop'. i took the use of 'uncle' in this thread in this context.

Sounds right. In any case, I think the discussion has now moved beyond that level, and merits the simple (but elegant) title "Drew Stubbs." JMHO. :)

[Joseph]

No more Uncle

[RedEye]

No more Uncle

Uncle: Uncle

Thanks!

[reds44]

No more Uncle
Now I can hope nobody reads the first post of this thread and I won't look like an idiot.

:beerme:

[GAC]

Now I can hope nobody reads the first post of this thread and I won't look like an idiot.

:beerme:

Too late. [joking]

We were barely one month into the new season, and yes, Stubbs struggled (as do a lot of players). But to compare him to Patterson and Taveras was over-reach IMO, and a downright insult to Stubbs. :p:

[RedEye]

Too late. [joking]

We were barely one month into the new season, and yes, Stubbs struggled (as do a lot of players). But to compare him to Patterson and Taveras was over-reach IMO, and a downright insult to Stubbs. :p:

Amen. Comparing Stubbs to Taveras really is folly IMO.

Actually, though, if Stubbs stays at his current level and never improves his contact rate, his classified ad might end up resembling Patterson's at some point: skilled, aging CF with good power and speed; has trouble getting on base.

Stubbs is probably a better defender overall, I would guess--but Corey was and is pretty good out there too IIRC...

I do expect Stubbs to improve on his current numbers. But if he doesn't, don't we have to make this comparison eventually?

[membengal]

He's got a chance to go 20/30 while playing above average defense in CF.

That's gotta exceed most expectations, right?

[Blitz Dorsey]

Too late. [joking]

We were barely one month into the new season, and yes, Stubbs struggled (as do a lot of players). But to compare him to Patterson and Taveras was over-reach IMO, and a downright insult to Stubbs. :p:

In all fairness, it wasn't just based on the first month of this season. I think I speak for all of the "Stubbs bashers" when I say it was mostly based on his career minor league numbers. Then combined with his slow start to this season, a lot of us were worried.

And I got to admit: A three HR day doesn't erase all my concerns. But it sure helps! I especially loved the one where he went the other way to RC. And he absolutely crushed the balls he pulled. I don't care that the wind was blowing out, he was crushin' him some balls.

So, we might have something here with young Mr. Stubbs. I'm still a bit skeptical, but he is coming around for sure. Another thing I will say about him: Very impressed with his maturity in post-game interviews and the like. Extremely mature for his age it would appear.

[mth123]

In all fairness, it wasn't just based on the first month of this season. I think I speak for all of the "Stubbs bashers" when I say it was mostly based on his career minor league numbers. Then combined with his slow start to this season, a lot of us were worried.

And I got to admit: A three HR day doesn't erase all my concerns. But it sure helps! I especially loved the one where he went the other way to RC. And he absolutely crushed the balls he pulled. I don't care that the wind was blowing out, he was crushin' him some balls.

So, we might have something here with young Mr. Stubbs. I'm still a bit skeptical, but he is coming around for sure. Another thing I will say about him: Very impressed with his maturity in post-game interviews and the like. Extremely mature for his age it would appear.

This is exactly how I viewed it. I hope Stubbs ends up being all he can be because it will be All Star caliber, but until recently, he hadn't showed it much. Even a 3 HR day seems a little cheap when you consider that Paul Janish and Corky Miller each hit one on the same day. The jet stream must have been working.

Stubbs has shown enough power IMO to keep pitchers honest and it was my primary concern. He'll probably always struggle with contact, but a few better decisions to jump on hittable pitches early in a plate appearance could bump him up a notch. Plate discipline is not only knowing when to lay-off, but its also knowing when to jump all over a pitch. He seems to let a lot of good ones go by.

[Mario-Rijo]

This is exactly how I viewed it. I hope Stubbs ends up being all he can be because it will be All Star caliber, but until recently, he hadn't showed it much. Even a 3 HR day seems a little cheap when you consider that Paul Janish and Corky Miller each hit one on the same day. The jet stream must have been working.

Stubbs has shown enough power IMO to keep pitchers honest and it was my primary concern. He'll probably always struggle with contact, but a few better decisions to jump on hittable pitches early in a plate appearance could bump him up a notch. Plate discipline is not only knowing when to lay-off, but its also knowing when to jump all over a pitch. He seems to let a lot of good ones go by.

I agree but what is the Cubbies excuse then?

[mth123]

I agree but what is the Cubbies excuse then?

They seem like a defeated team. I'm guessing Lou steps down and they back up the truck real soon. Doesn't make a ton of sense becuase I like a lot of the players they have. Theriot, Lee and Ramirez all are having awful years. Those are the three main offensive guys. Soriano is actually doing pretty well.

[Homer Bailey]

This is exactly how I viewed it. I hope Stubbs ends up being all he can be because it will be All Star caliber, but until recently, he hadn't showed it much. Even a 3 HR day seems a little cheap when you consider that Paul Janish and Corky Miller each hit one on the same day. The jet stream must have been working.

Stubbs has shown enough power IMO to keep pitchers honest and it was my primary concern. He'll probably always struggle with contact, but a few better decisions to jump on hittable pitches early in a plate appearance could bump him up a notch. Plate discipline is not only knowing when to lay-off, but its also knowing when to jump all over a pitch. He seems to let a lot of good ones go by.

I was there. The 2nd home run was a bit wind aided, but would have been out on a windless day as well. The 1st and 3rd homers would have been out of Yellowstone National Park.

[lollipopcurve]

In all fairness, it wasn't just based on the first month of this season. I think I speak for all of the "Stubbs bashers" when I say it was mostly based on his career minor league numbers. Then combined with his slow start to this season, a lot of us were worried.

A lot of people never would have promoted him based on some of those concerns. And who'd be in center now?

The fact is, the scouting reports were accurate, and the learning continues at the major league level. Either you trust the scouts and let the guy take his lumps for awhile, or you don't.

[pedro]

In all fairness, it wasn't just based on the first month of this season. I think I speak for all of the "Stubbs bashers" when I say it was mostly based on his career minor league numbers. Then combined with his slow start to this season, a lot of us were worried.

And I got to admit: A three HR day doesn't erase all my concerns. But it sure helps! I especially loved the one where he went the other way to RC. And he absolutely crushed the balls he pulled. I don't care that the wind was blowing out, he was crushin' him some balls.

So, we might have something here with young Mr. Stubbs. I'm still a bit skeptical, but he is coming around for sure. Another thing I will say about him: Very impressed with his maturity in post-game interviews and the like. Extremely mature for his age it would appear.

In all "fairness" you've railed against him in the game thread and others to the extent that it has begun to make RZ unreadable. The best part about Stubbs hitting three HR's is that it has the remote possibility of quieting your rage for about 24 hours before you resume telling everybody how stupid the Reds are for not starting Heisey in CF.

[Mario-Rijo]

They seem like a defeated team. I'm guessing Lou steps down and they back up the truck real soon. Doesn't make a ton of sense becuase I like a lot of the players they have. Theriot, Lee and Ramirez all are having awful years. Those are the three main offensive guys. Soriano is actually doing pretty well.

If Cozart isn't ready next season Ryan Theriot strikes me as a good target to go after for SS, if they decide to do so. Go after another FA SS other than OCab I mean.

[puca]

I'm a Stubbs fan, always have been. But it still too early to declare that he is the CF answer for the Reds. There are still some holes in his game both offensively and defensively. It sounds like he works hard to improve and is willing to spend the time studying video tape and is receptive to coaching, so hopefully he continues to get better at the major league level.

[mth123]

In all "fairness" you've railed against him in the game thread and others to the extent that it has begun to make RZ unreadable. The best part about Stubbs hitting three HR's is that it has the remote possibility of quieting your rage for about 24 hours before you resume telling everybody how stupid the Reds are for not starting Heisey in CF.

I usually stay out of this stuff, but posts like this do a lot more toward making Redszone unreadable than anything I've seen in the game threads lately.

[Homer Bailey]

The only true hole I see in Stubbs's game is his contact rate. I think he does everything else either league average or much, much better.

[westofyou]

I was there. The 2nd home run was a bit wind aided, but would have been out on a windless day as well. The 1st and 3rd homers would have been out of Yellowstone National Park.


Good day for wind though,

“You could tell in BP it was going to be a good day for hitters,” Stubbs said. “The wind blowing out the way it was, all you’re looking to do is get pitches up and try to be on the ball. Not only myself, but a number of other guys were able to do that today.”

[westofyou]

I usually stay out of this stuff, but posts like this do a lot more toward making Redszone unreadable than anything I've seen in the game threads lately.

The game threads are insufferable. Best to be avoided.

[Blitz Dorsey]

I usually stay out of this stuff, but posts like this do a lot more toward making Redszone unreadable than anything I've seen in the game threads lately.

Exactly, more noise from Pedro. Doesn't comment on the actual topic, just takes shots at others. Funny how he doesn't like the posts, but keeps reading them and responding to them!

[VR]

If Cozart isn't ready next season Ryan Theriot strikes me as a good target to go after for SS, if they decide to do so. Go after another FA SS other than OCab I mean.

Not a bad thought....but if Janish isn't the starting SS next year, I'd want to set my sights much, much higher.

[Blitz Dorsey]

Cozart is actually having a pretty solid offensive year at Louisville (OPS around .750) and word is he is very good defensively. However, if he's not ready, I agree that Theriot would be a good guy to go after next year.

[traderumor]

A lot of people never would have promoted him based on some of those concerns. And who'd be in center now?

The fact is, the scouting reports were accurate, and the learning continues at the major league level. Either you trust the scouts and let the guy take his lumps for awhile, or you don't.It seems to me its all about expectations. Stubbs being a 1st round pick, for many, means that he must be an immediate star or he's a bust. Reds fans should have learned the hard way that the recent run of 1st round picks making it to the majors (Bruce, Bailey, and Stubbs) and sticking in the majors and being a part of team that is turning the corner is a credit to the draft and develop arm of the organization. The list of Gruler, Howington, Sowards, et al is finally becoming a distant memory. When you can develop your core with at least average youngsters, then you can go get parts to put you over the top.

Unfortunately, too many see Stubbs hitting .240 and striking out a lot as a "bust" for a 1st rounder, which to me is unreasonable expectations.

[Tommyjohn25]

Take it private guys.

[mth123]

Exactly, more noise from Pedro. Doesn't comment on the actual topic, just takes shots at others. Funny how he doesn't like the posts, but keeps reading them and responding to them!

I think this is a bad post too. I hate all the personal stuff. Not taking sides really, just don't want it to be personal in public.

[Tommyjohn25]

nm

[cincrazy]

This is a roster full of players that simply knows how to win games. Individual stats with this team are almost meaningless. Cairo, Janish, etc. all have individual stats that leave MUCH to be desired, but they've also helped win some crucial games. This is a team in every sense of the word. Stubbs may go 0-20 and strike out 14 times, but late in a game with runners in scoring position, he'll drive in the winning runs.

Something magical is in the air with this team, and I think Redszone as a whole should let the last 10 years go, stop arguing about silly stuff, and enjoy this summer :).

[Raisor]

This is a roster full of players that simply knows how to win games. .

What happens on days they don't win?

[cincrazy]

What happens on days they don't win?

Then a bunch of grown men and women throw temper tantrums on an Internet message board ;).

[RedsManRick]

I'd really like to get a better understanding of how a knowledge of winning games is different than the knowledge required to play better baseball than your opponents. Is it something that doesn't show up elsewhere in a guy's performance and cannot be attributed to an improvement in those skills?

[jojo]

I think he was mostly just trying to cast a positive vibe.

Blessed are the peacemakers and may their favorite teams rejoice in victory.

[dougdirt]

According to hittrackeronline.com Stubbs HR's true distances yesterday were 417 on each of the pulled HR's and 407 on the one to right center. So no, none of the HR's were wind aided in order to leave the park.

[Blitz Dorsey]

According to hittrackeronline.com Stubbs HR's true distances yesterday were 417 on each of the pulled HR's and 407 on the one to right center. So no, none of the HR's were wind aided in order to leave the park.

Yeah, all those balls were absolutely crushed. Wind-aided in terms of distance but they would have been out of any park. (Yes, including Yellowstone as was mentioned earlier. Always love any references to the movie Major League. Such as the 2010 Cleveland Indians. Really nice of them to pay tribute to that great movie by getting back to their old ways and completely sucking.)

Stubbs is showing more power than I expected. And again, the best sign by far was the ball he hit the other way. Once he starts going with the pitch instead of trying to pull everything, he will become a decent hitter perhaps. Add that with his solid defense (hopefully he becomes better near the wall) and speed and we might really have something here. Yes, I've been hard on him, but I am extremely fair when it comes to Reds players. Just try and tell it like it is. Wasn't very optimistic about Stubbs after studying his minor league numbers but he continues to improve and is still very young. And again, I like his maturity very much.

[Blitz Dorsey]

Then a bunch of grown men and women throw temper tantrums on an Internet message board ;).

That's completely out of line and not true at all. The women on this board are well-behaved. ;-)

[VR]

According to hittrackeronline.com Stubbs HR's true distances yesterday were 417 on each of the pulled HR's and 407 on the one to right center. So no, none of the HR's were wind aided in order to leave the park.

I think Janish's was the only 'wind-aided'....although that was at least a double to the gap at any park.

[mth123]

It seems to me its all about expectations. Stubbs being a 1st round pick, for many, means that he must be an immediate star or he's a bust. Reds fans should have learned the hard way that the recent run of 1st round picks making it to the majors (Bruce, Bailey, and Stubbs) and sticking in the majors and being a part of team that is turning the corner is a credit to the draft and develop arm of the organization. The list of Gruler, Howington, Sowards, et al is finally becoming a distant memory. When you can develop your core with at least average youngsters, then you can go get parts to put you over the top.

Unfortunately, too many see Stubbs hitting .240 and striking out a lot as a "bust" for a 1st rounder, which to me is unreasonable expectations.

For me that's not it at all. Scouting or no, I like to see a guy earn it by knocking down the door in the minors. .715 OPS at AAA over nearly a full season isn't knocking the door down. If the scouts are right as Lollipop suggested, it will happen. The part that I disagree with is making him the starter in the majors and letting him struggle until it does. Let him find it in AAA and then start him in the big leagues unless there are no viable alternatives. The Reds had Dickerson who was more of a known quantity and there was no need to install Stubbs until he answered those questions.

In his case, he had a pretty solid spring and won the job. Usually I don't think Spring is the proper spot to make that decsion, but given Stubbs uneven performance in 2009 (poor in AAA and good in the big leagues) it seemed appropriate to let spring be the deciding factor. I guess since some of us raised the question we were considered bashers. Oh well, I remember when knocking the door down in AAA was mandatory.

[VR]

For me that's not it at all. Scouting or no, I like to see a guy earn it by knocking down the door in the minors. .715 OPS at AAA over nearly a full season isn't knocking the door down. If the scouts are right as Lollipop suggested, it will happen. The part that I disagree with is making him the starter in the majors and letting him struggle until it does. Let him find it in AAA and then start him in the big leagues unless there are no viable alternatives. The Reds had Dickerson who was more of a known quantity and there was no need to install Stubbs until he answered those questions.

In his case, he had a pretty solid spring and won the job. Usually I don't think Spring is the proper spot to make that decsion, but given Stubbs uneven performance in 2009 (poor in AAA and good in the big leagues) it seemed appropriate to let spring be the deciding factor. I guess since some of us raised the question we were considered bashers. Oh well, I remember when knocking the door down in AAA was mandatory.

I agree with the overall assessment.....although I think they could 'carry' Stubbs weak bat due to having plus bats at nearly every other position.

[mth123]

I agree with the overall assessment.....although I think they could 'carry' Stubbs weak bat due to having plus bats at nearly every other position.

At this point I agree, but coming into the season, no one expected the performances we're seeing from Rolen, Phillips, Hernandez or even Gomes. If those guys were performing more like the last couple years, the Reds wouldn't be able to carry any weak bats.

[Homer Bailey]

Good day for wind though,

“You could tell in BP it was going to be a good day for hitters,” Stubbs said. “The wind blowing out the way it was, all you’re looking to do is get pitches up and try to be on the ball. Not only myself, but a number of other guys were able to do that today.”

It was the strongest I've ever seen it blow out in Wrigley.

However, I think only Janish's and Colvin's 2nd were wind aided.

[reds44]

It was the strongest I've ever seen it blow out in Wrigley.

However, I think only Janish's and Colvin's 2nd were wind aided.
I think Stubbs oppo one might have been wind aided too, but really who cares.

[dougdirt]

I think Stubbs oppo one might have been wind aided too, but really who cares.

It wasn't. Take away the wind and heat and it still goes 407 feet.

[Homer Bailey]

I think Stubbs oppo one might have been wind aided too, but really who cares.

It could have been. And this may sound like rubbish because I defend Stubbs at every chance I get, but I specifically commented to my buddy right after that home run, that the flags were actually blowing to right on that homer.

That could have also helped it blow into a shorter part of the park, but I specifically remember the wind not blowing directly out on that ball.

[reds44]

It wasn't. Take away the wind and heat and it still goes 407 feet.
Sarcasm? So the wind had zero effect on it? No way.

[Degenerate39]

Does it honestly matter? He hit 3 home runs. That's a pretty big accomplishment for any player let alone a player who is essentually a rookie. Quit trying to take it away from him.

[dougdirt]

Sarcasm? So the wind had zero effect on it? No way.

Not sarcasm. Hittrackeronline.com does all the science/math to adjust the HR's for how far they actually would all go given the exact same conditions. Stubbs hit 3 HR's yesterday, all of which would have been HR's without any weather conditions standing in the way.

[reds44]

Does it honestly matter? He hit 3 home runs. That's a pretty big accomplishment for any player let alone a player who is essentually a rookie. Quit trying to take it away from him.


I think Stubbs oppo one might have been wind aided too, but really who cares.

Clearly I am trying to take it away from him.

[cincrazy]

I think he was mostly just trying to cast a positive vibe.
Blessed are the peacemakers and may their favorite teams rejoice in victory.

Exactly.

Never thought it was possible to read so much into one little post. Goodness gracious.

[Degenerate39]

Clearly I am trying to take it away from him.

Clearly I wasn't referring to you

[Red in Chicago]

Enough of the back and forth garbage already. Play nice, or don't play at all.

[OnBaseMachine]

By Aaron Gleeman: Does a three-homer game mean Drew Stubbs is destined for stardom?

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/does-a-three-homer-game-mean-drew-stubbs-is-destined-for-stardom.php?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[GAC]

In all fairness, it wasn't just based on the first month of this season. I think I speak for all of the "Stubbs bashers" when I say it was mostly based on his career minor league numbers. Then combined with his slow start to this season, a lot of us were worried.

I've never put much credence in minor league numbers as the true judge of how a player may turn out. I'm not saying they should be ignored, just not so much credence (faith) put into them like some like to do when they attempt to utilize those numbers to project it into major league performance.

Yes, I realize that it is the only "tool" we have to go on, and that many will counter by saying - "if a guy can't hit minor league pitching then his chances of succeeding at the major league level are slim", and I'm certainly not disagreeing with that aspect. Only it's still not the most reliable indicator, a lot like defensive matrix', and there are other intangibles at play, such as maturity.

I've basically been non-committal either way with Drew at this stage. As I observe him, he plays like a kid whose been given his shot in his first full year of major league ball - he's had his struggles, his ups and downs, and IMO it's simply trying to adjust and get acclimated to the big game and show some consistency.

He could very well end up falling on is face; but I definitely think it's too early to tell that. And that is one of the problems I have with some of the people on here (respectfully).... they're sometimes too quick in their judgments and assessments in wanting to pull the cord (give up) on the youth and throw the "next guy" into the fire.

I think we need to be more patient with some of our youth, and guys like Stubbs. Only time will tell.

[gonelong]

I've basically been non-committal either way with Drew at this stage.

The fan in me has no problem watching and waiting.

The arm-chair GM in me doesn't have the luxury to watch and wait, I've got hypothetical roster moves to make. :D

GL

[TRF]

2BB's, 1 intentional, were a great sign last night. He ups that OBP into the .350's and he's something, maybe something special. I doubted the power because I didn't think he had any idea how to harness it. But the numbers don't lie: he's a middle to lower middle of the order hitter, NOT a leadoff hitter. And he can do a lot of damage down there and not just with HR's.

Though his OPS is lower, you can make the argument that he's been better than Jay Bruce this year. Their offensive numbers stagger a bit. Stubbs has 1 more HR, Bruce has 9 more doubles. Stubbs has 16 SB's while only being caught 3 times. Bruce has 5 while being nabbed twice. Both are excellent defenders. The overall edge is to Bruce, but Stubbs has been developing. His problem is consistency. Lets hope July is a lot like May. If it is, he could easily be a 30/50 guy, something the Reds haven't had since Eric Davis.

That can happen if he stays the #7 hitter.

[GAC]

The arm-chair GM in me doesn't have the luxury to watch and wait, I've got hypothetical roster moves to make. :D

GL

LMAO How true, how true (in all of us)

[fearofpopvol1]

Season OPS is at .743.

If he could just get on base a little more than he does, he would go from being "good" to "really good."

[oregonred]

Season OPS is at .743.

If he could just get on base a little more than he does, he would go from being "good" to "really good."

Make that .756 after tonight with 48 RBI.

[Homer Bailey]

Season OPS is at .743.

If he could just get on base a little more than he does, he would go from being "good" to "really good."

Well, he just did, cause his season OPS is .756!

[fearofpopvol1]

Make that .756 after tonight with 48 RBI.

Ah, thanks for pointing that out. I guess MLB.com's stats aren't updated in real time for the player pages.

[oregonred]

Ah, thanks for pointing that out. I guess MLB.com's stats aren't updated in real time for the player pages.

For some strange reason no, but ESPN does seem to have real time individual updates.

[mdccclxix]

time to bust out the Curtis Granderson comps again:

25 years old, first full year in the majors for both:

Curtis
.260 / .335 / .438 / .773, 19 hr, 31 2b

Stubbs - before 7/19
.244/ .318 / .426/ .743, 13 hr, 8 2b

Career splits

Curtis
vs RHP .289 / .364 / .523 / .887
vs LHP .211 / .269 / .338 / .607

Stubbs
vs RHP .247/ .318 / .388/ .707
vs LHP .266 / .323/ .531/ .854

Both have great speed and power, but Stubbs weirdly only has 8 doubles. They also both struggle against their equal hand on the mound, yet Stubbs deals with RHP better than Curtis LHP. I'd still give the edge to Curtis for his higher average and all those doubles, but maybe Stubbs is turning it on down the stretch...

Oh yeah, and both strike out a ton.

Is Stubbs ready to hit lead off now?

[nemesis]

Is Stubbs ready to hit lead off now?

Nope. his OPS when leading off an inning is still just .586. He just isn't a table setter.

[mdccclxix]

Nope. his OPS when leading off an inning is still just .586. He just isn't a table setter.

It's going to stay at .586 if he never gets another shot at it, though. Short of OCab going down, and Phillips moving back to the 2, or, god forbid, Rolen goes to the DL and Phillips goes to the 4 again :eek:, I don't see it happening, but Stubbs may yet convince Dusty and Walt he's ready to leadoff.

[nemesis]

It's going to stay at .586 if he never gets another shot at it, though. Short of OCab going down, and Phillips moving back to the 2, or, god forbid, Rolen goes to the DL and Phillips goes to the 4 again :eek:, I don't see it happening, but Stubbs may yet convince Dusty and Walt he's ready to leadoff.

No that's not just figuring him as a leadoff man. That # is any inning the entire season when he is the first batter up in any inning.

[UKFlounder]

His "slash line" is almost identical to Jay Bruce's, who most people have thought was having a nice comeback year after 2009, at least until recently.

Stubbs: .251/.323/.433
Bruce: .257/.330/.430

I don't know if this says more about Stubbs or Bruce, but I do find it interesting that their numbers are so close at this point in the season.

Stubbs has more HRs, RBI & SBs, but Bruce has more doubles.

Even their BB/K totals are similar, though Bruce has an advantage there - Stubbs 31/93 in 307 ABs and Bruce 37/88 in 335 ABs

[TRF]

His "slash line" is almost identical to Jay Bruce's, who most people have thought was having a nice comeback year after 2009, at least until recently.

Stubbs: .251/.323/.433
Bruce: .257/.330/.430

I don't know if this says more about Stubbs or Bruce, but I do find it interesting that their numbers are so close at this point in the season.

Stubbs has more HRs, RBI & SBs, but Bruce has more doubles.

Even their BB/K totals are similar, though Bruce has an advantage there - Stubbs 31/93 in 307 ABs and Bruce 37/88 in 335 ABs

I was noticing this a couple of weeks ago and even commented that were they the same age Stubbs would be considered the better player.

Imagine how hard that is for me to type.

But Stubbs IS older. He's also not far from his age prime years. Bruce has 5 year to get to those, so he certainly has a chance to be scary good.

but right now, Stubbs is the better defender, and is displaying more power. And his numbers are trending slightly up where Bruce's are not.

very odd, this game of baseball. We think we know, but actually, we just don't.

[reds44]

I'm really not sure how much better of a defender Stubbs is. Certainly not on knock on Drew, but Bruce may be the best defensice RFer in baseball.

[TRF]

I'm really not sure how much better of a defender Stubbs is. Certainly not on knock on Drew, but Bruce may be the best defensice RFer in baseball.

And Stubbs can make the same case in CF.

my fingers are burning.

[BRM]

And Stubbs can make the same case in CF.

my fingers are burning.

TRF, Drew Stubbs fan. Incredible. :)

[TRF]

The tree that is inflexible tends to break. I'm not a fan yet, but I do love that Dusty has realized he isn't a leadoff hitter. The human element of the game is fascinating. I guess he's more relaxed in the 7th spot in the order.

51 AB's in July: .333 .382 .667 1.049

not. bad.

[pahster]

The tree that is inflexible tends to break. I'm not a fan yet, but I do love that Dusty has realized he isn't a leadoff hitter. The human element of the game is fascinating. I guess he's more relaxed in the 7th spot in the order.

51 AB's in July: .333 .382 .667 1.049

not. bad.

Maybe he just started slowly.

[TRF]

Maybe he just started slowly.

his minor league numbers don't bear that out. and while it may be a sample size alert, his power just has never been there as a leadoff hitter.

[lollipopcurve]

his power just has never been there as a leadoff hitter.

During his time with the Reds in 2009 he hit for power as a leadoff guy.

[pahster]

his minor league numbers don't bear that out. and while it may be a sample size alert, his power just has never been there as a leadoff hitter.

Why would he show more or less power based on his place in the lineup?

[Homer Bailey]

Why would he show more or less power based on his place in the lineup?

Many reasons. Some may include seeing more fastballs lower in the lineup, less pressure to work deep into counts and draw walks, being put in more situations with guys on base, meaning more fastballs, etc., etc.

[Patrick Bateman]

Drew Stubbs is one of the very few things it looks like I may be right on.

[pahster]

Many reasons. Some may include seeing more fastballs lower in the lineup, less pressure to work deep into counts and draw walks, being put in more situations with guys on base, meaning more fastballs, etc., etc.

Pressure seems possible, though I suspect in the aggregate batter hit about the same regardless of where they are in the lineup. Maybe Stubbs feels pressured when he hits higher in the lineup. Maybe. If he does, he's probably an outlier.

I'd be interested to see the data on how he's being pitched because I find it highly unlikely that pitchers are handling him differently now than they did at the beginning of the season. Stubbs' strengths and weaknesses are the same now as they were then, so why would pitchers change their strategy when facing him? He had a .507 OPS as a leadoff hitter this year. Batting seventh, he's got an .855 OPS. If his change in performance is due to a change in strategy on behalf of opposing pitchers, then it seems as if advanced scouts and all the people who work with video throughout the NL are bad at their jobs. That seems pretty unlikely to me. Even with runners on base, pitchers should want to face the .507 guy, not the .855 guy. This is why I suspect he just started out slow. He's been pretty much who I thought he was over the course of the season: a .750ish guy, though I admit I thought he'd have a higher OBP and a lower SLG.

[TheNext44]

Approach.

As Yogi Berra said, 90% of this game is half mental.

Just as Phillips changed his approach to hitting when he changed to the leadoff spot vs. cleanup, it's possible Stubbs had a different philosophy hitting in the leadoff spot vs. the seventh.

Technically, you are correct, his power didn't change, but it seems he is more willing to make use of it hitting lower in the order.

[TRF]

Why would he show more or less power based on his place in the lineup?

I have a theory about that I'm calling a "conflict of instinct". This is just a guess mind you.

I think Stubbs baseball instincts, his natural muscle memory tend toward a power/speed game. I think his body wants to drive the ball. His speed is actually secondary to his true offensive game.

As a leadoff hitter he has been told/instructed to be more of a slap hitter. His focus was trying to reach base that way, hit that way. It's alien to him. instead of reaching base he was making outs.

In the 7th spot he's being told to hit in a way his instincts agree with.

And that seems to be working. He's getting on base more, and he's hitting for power.

Again, just my opinion, but I don't think you can remove the human element here.

[Scrap Irony]

Stubbs is actually better when he's more aggressive.

Perhaps hitting in the leadoff position made him too patient?

[membengal]

I have a theory about that I'm calling a "conflict of instinct". This is just a guess mind you.

I think Stubbs baseball instincts, his natural muscle memory tend toward a power/speed game. I think his body wants to drive the ball. His speed is actually secondary to his true offensive game.

As a leadoff hitter he has been told/instructed to be more of a slap hitter. His focus was trying to reach base that way, hit that way. It's alien to him. instead of reaching base he was making outs.

In the 7th spot he's being told to hit in a way his instincts agree with.

And that seems to be working. He's getting on base more, and he's hitting for power.

Again, just my opinion, but I don't think you can remove the human element here.

Your ideas and observations on this continue to intrigue me. I would very much like to know if you have a newsletter to which I can subscribe...

[TRF]

Your ideas and observations on this continue to intrigue me. I would very much like to know if you have a newsletter to which I can subscribe...

HA!

I'm just a dumb web developer.

[membengal]

You should branch out. Because your ideas seem spot on to me. And I am beyond delighted at what Stubbs has turned in. Huge development for this club.

[TRF]

Honestly, indirectly, woy has pointed me in this direction. A lot of his posts take the human element into account. I 'm curious as to why some players with equal body types don't show similar skills/production. Like Jeter and Janish for example. Physically very similar but that's about it.

Why did a simple shift in the lineup create such a drastic change for the Reds. As much as we've talked about Stubbs in the 7th spot, the same can be said about BP as a 1 or 2 hitter. it's been a remarkable change. I gotta say the intangibles of the game are really interesting.

[RedsManRick]

I'm not sure that it's as much about instincts as it is simply matching up expected behavior with skill set. Stubbs is and probably always will be a poor contact hitter. Batting leadoff, he was encouraged to both see pitches for the sake of the guys behind him and to put the ball in play. This put him behind in the count and then encouraged him to swing -- a death sentence for a guy with contact problems. Batting lower in the order, he's freed up to simply find a pitch he can hit and put wood on it.

Phillips, by contrast, is a decent contact hitter. But batting cleanup, he wasn't as willing to shorten up his stroke and drive the ball where it was pitched. Cleaning up fed in to a power-hitter mentality that really didn't suit his skill set. I think batting at the top of the lineup has forced in to play more to his actual strengths as a hitter.

[TRF]

I'm not sure that it's as much about instincts as it is simply matching up expected behavior with skill set. Stubbs is and probably always will be a poor contact hitter. Batting leadoff, he was encouraged to both see pitches for the sake of the guys behind him and to put the ball in play. This put him behind in the count and then encouraged him to swing -- a death sentence for a guy with contact problems. Batting lower in the order, he's freed up to simply find a pitch he can hit and put wood on it.

Phillips, by contrast, is a decent contact hitter. But batting cleanup, he wasn't as willing to shorten up his stroke and drive the ball where it was pitched. Cleaning up fed in to a power-hitter mentality that really didn't suit his skill set. I think batting at the top of the lineup has forced in to play more to his actual strengths as a hitter.

semantics. we could call it ookey dookey if we wanted. But you basically said the same thing I did. I chose insticnts because its more nebulous. :) Stubbs body wants him to hit a certain way. IS he athlete enough to hit differently? Sure, but he's fighting what comes naturally. Instinct.

You want a good comp for Stubbs? this'll blow everyones mind, but try Adam Dunn. He's probably 80% Adam Dunn potentially in power. Similar contact. Dunn will BB 90+ time for you, Stubbs probably 70+. Power. Dunn has perennial 40 HR power. Stubbs is looking like he COULD be a 30 HR guy. The difference is speed, which Stubbs is NOT taking full advantage of. Oh, he's got the SB's, but 9 doubles? 9? That's an anomaly. He should be in the high teens right now. I think that will correct itself.

If Adam Dunn were all that he is right now WITH Stubbs speed, he'd be the best player in the game. period. If Stubbs can continue to improve his power and contact he's easily the best CF in baseball, and could be for the next 7-8 years too.

[fearofpopvol1]

I still think the Mike Cameron comp for Stubbs is a good one.

[Mario-Rijo]

I have a theory about that I'm calling a "conflict of instinct". This is just a guess mind you.

I think Stubbs baseball instincts, his natural muscle memory tend toward a power/speed game. I think his body wants to drive the ball. His speed is actually secondary to his true offensive game.

As a leadoff hitter he has been told/instructed to be more of a slap hitter. His focus was trying to reach base that way, hit that way. It's alien to him. instead of reaching base he was making outs.

In the 7th spot he's being told to hit in a way his instincts agree with.

And that seems to be working. He's getting on base more, and he's hitting for power.

Again, just my opinion, but I don't think you can remove the human element here.

I disagree with your theory and have one of my own. The 1st spot in the order requires a guy to take pitches even inside the zone. Stubbs ability to swing and miss is further limited in that spot if he is doing his job and taking pitches for others to gauge (not to mention pitchers aren't as likely to make mental errors to the guy hitting in front of the best hitters on the team). Bottom line is he will never be a good leadoff hitter until he fixes (if even possible) his contact issues. In the 7 hole he simply has more chances to make contact.

Or what RMR said only I didn't read that far ahead.

[TRF]

I disagree with your theory and have one of my own. The 1st spot in the order requires a guy to take pitches even inside the zone. Stubbs ability to swing and miss is further limited in that spot if he is doing his job and taking pitches for others to gauge (not to mention pitchers aren't as likely to make mental errors to the guy hitting in front of the best hitters on the team). Bottom line is he will never be a good leadoff hitter until he fixes (if even possible) his contact issues. In the 7 hole he simply has more chances to make contact.

Or what RMR said only I didn't read that far ahead.

How is that in anyway disagreeing? Stubbs is a certain type of hitter. that type isn't conducive to leading off. For whatever reason, whether its philosophy, experience or natural instinct. He is what he is, but leadoff is a round hole and he's a square peg.

Also I think his coaches may have had a preconceived notion of the type of hitter leadoff is further limiting his progress. Plain and simple, they did a very good job of nearly ruining him. A a #7 hitter he has two luxuries, 1 pitchers can attempt to pitch around him to get to the "weaker" #8 and 9 hitters. IMO pitching around a guy can lead to mistake pitches, forcing the pitcher to throw a strike, or walking him. All good things. 2 it may take self perceived pressure off of him in that he may think the job has gotten done ahead of him.

Again, these are just guesses, it's not like i know the guy, :)

[Mario-Rijo]

How is that in anyway disagreeing? Stubbs is a certain type of hitter. that type isn't conducive to leading off. For whatever reason, whether its philosophy, experience or natural instinct. He is what he is, but leadoff is a round hole and he's a square peg.

Not disagreeing with the what (he's not a leadoff hitter) but the why (not so much about philosophical approach but more about a lack of skill) either way we agree about the end result.

He could improve but I can't quite figure out what his issues are. Could be multiple issues (poor bat control, doesn't see the ball as well as the average hitter, bat speed). I know the more movement the more inept he becomes. I'd like to see his pitch F/X data to see what he is hitting and what he struggles with that would be more telling as to where to start identifying his issues. If he could improve his contact rate he could hit leadoff. I just hope he doesn't go backwards which is still within the realm of possibility, I can live with a .750 OPS from him.

[RedsManRick]

semantics.

I'm not so sure. I'd say that instincts (natural approach), skills, and the demands of the spot in the order all come in to play. Instincts and skills are not the same thing in my book.

Ideally, these things all align, bu sometimes they don't. Just look at Taveras' seeming unwillingness to beat the ball in the to the ground. He had the skills to leadoff if he used an approach which maximized those skills. But his instincts were to try and muscle up.

I think Phillips' instincts are suited for the 4th or 5th spot. He wants to be a HR hitter. He wants to turn on everything and yank it out of the yard. But skills aren't - he's not Jonny Gomes. As a result, we saw him roll-over on the ball to 2B and hit a ton of pop ups. I just don't think Phillips' skills and instincts are completely aligned.

I think agree on Stubbs quite a bit. Stubbs is similar to Dunn in instincts and a lesser approximation in skills -- power & discipline. But with a bit less power and a bit less discipline, Stubbs contact issues could be an issue. He makes up for it in terms of base hits through his infield singles.

[Rojo]

Good thought TRF. I think a lot of players are stunted from shoe-horning them into a prescribed role. Paul O'Neil was a famous case. The Reds wanted a 30+ homer guy and turns out he was something else entirely valuable.

Runs scored is a good, if vanilla, metric for Stubbs. If he scores 95 times from the 7 hole then you can excuse a less-than-stellar OPS.

[TRF]

I'm not so sure. I'd say that instincts (natural approach), skills, and the demands of the spot in the order all come in to play. Instincts and skills are not the same thing in my book.

Ideally, these things all align, bu sometimes they don't. Just look at Taveras' seeming unwillingness to beat the ball in the to the ground. He had the skills to leadoff if he used an approach which maximized those skills. But his instincts were to try and muscle up.

I think Phillips' instincts are suited for the 4th or 5th spot. He wants to be a HR hitter. He wants to turn on everything and yank it out of the yard. But skills aren't - he's not Jonny Gomes. As a result, we saw him roll-over on the ball to 2B and hit a ton of pop ups. I just don't think Phillips' skills and instincts are completely aligned.

I think agree on Stubbs quite a bit. Stubbs is similar to Dunn in instincts and a lesser approximation in skills -- power & discipline. But with a bit less power and a bit less discipline, Stubbs contact issues could be an issue. He makes up for it in terms of base hits through his infield singles.

this may be splitting hairs even more, but instincts can be trumped by desire. I think BP is a perfect example. he WANTS to be the 40 HR guy, but his skillset while close at times isn't suited to it. so intincts could eventually become experience+instruction=muscle memory. remember how little time a player has to react to the pitch. for a younger player like Stubbs his instincts fight the instruction, because what he's being taught conflicts with what he "knows".

It's just a guess, but it could explain a little why a player's age prime years start at 27. enough experience and instruction combine to become muscle memory.

[gonelong]

Good thought TRF. I think a lot of players are stunted from shoe-horning them into a prescribed role. Paul O'Neil was a famous case. The Reds wanted a 30+ homer guy and turns out he was something else entirely valuable.


I thought that sounded familar, agreed.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1795547&postcount=413 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1795547&postcount=413)



The Reds are always trying to make their strippers into Sunday school teachers and trying to convince their Sunday school teachers to wear 5" heals and a mini-skirt to church. It's no wonder they are constantly frustrated at the outcome.

GL

[TRF]

[QUOTE=Rojo;2164835]Good thought TRF. I think a lot of players are stunted from shoe-horning them into a prescribed role. Paul O'Neil was a famous case. The Reds wanted a 30+ homer guy and turns out he was something else entirely valuable.
[QUOTE]

I thought that sounded familar, agreed.

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1795547&postcount=413 (http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1795547&postcount=413)



GL

gl, i may not agree with you completely on Dunn, but that was a fantastic analogy.

[MississippiRed]

Well, at the very least, it was an opportunity to use strippers and Sunday School teachers in the same sentence, which cannot be neglected.

[RedsManRick]

It's just a guess, but it could explain a little why a player's age prime years start at 27. enough experience and instruction combine to become muscle memory.

Yup. Players peak physically early and mentally late. The late 20's is when you tend to get the best combination of the two.

[reds44]

I asked this question in the game thread, and I'll ask it in here too.

Can the Reds make the playoffs with Drew Stubbs playing everyday?

I know this thread doesn't show it, but I happen to like Drew Stubbs. I like his tools, I like his defense, and I think he's shown flashes of what he can do.

However, he just struck out with the bases loaded and nobody out.

Here was his line coming into tonight:
.235/.303/.404/.706
31 BB/104 Ks
The trade deadline is this weekend. The Reds have Heisey up here and Dickerson rehabbing in the minors.

What do you think?

[edabbs44]

I asked this question in the game thread, and I'll ask it in here too.

Can the Reds make the playoffs with Drew Stubbs playing everyday?

I know this thread doesn't show it, but I happen to like Drew Stubbs. I like his tools, I like his defense, and I think he's shown flashes of what he can do.

However, he just struck out with the bases loaded and nobody out.

Here was his line coming into tonight:
.235/.303/.404/.706
31 BB/104 Ks
The trade deadline is this weekend. The Reds have Heisey up here and Dickerson rehabbing in the minors.

What do you think?

The Cards and Colorado made it last year and I don't see much of a difference between those three at this juncture.

[camisadelgolf]

I asked this question in the game thread, and I'll ask it in here too.

Can the Reds make the playoffs with Drew Stubbs playing everyday?

I know this thread doesn't show it, but I happen to like Drew Stubbs. I like his tools, I like his defense, and I think he's shown flashes of what he can do.

However, he just struck out with the bases loaded and nobody out.

Here was his line coming into tonight:
.235/.303/.404/.706
31 BB/104 Ks
The trade deadline is this weekend. The Reds have Heisey up here and Dickerson rehabbing in the minors.

What do you think?
Absolutely. Pretty much every playoff team has a glaring weakness or two, not that I'm saying Stubbs is a glaring weakness. To compare it to 2009, I'd say it's the equivalent to the Phillies having Pedro Feliz at third base or the Twins having Carlos Gomez in center field. Sure, you'd like more offense, but the defense is huge compensation.

[edabbs44]

The Cards and Colorado made it last year and I don't see much of a difference between those three at this juncture.

Moving this over to this thread from the GT:



Fowler was actually good last year.

Rasmus, not so much.



Fowler's OPS by month in 2009:

.818
.688
.705
.762
1.081
.609

OPS vs RHP: .729
OPS on road: .717

Not sure how good he really was.

[reds44]

Moving this over to this thread from the GT:



Fowler's OPS by month in 2009:

.818
.688
.705
.762
1.081
.609

OPS vs RHP: .729
OPS on road: .717

Not sure how good he really was.
.266/.363/.406/.770 isn't bad.

[edabbs44]

.266/.363/.406/.770 isn't bad.

Season reminds me a lot of Gomes' offensive numbers. Same trend.

[reds44]

Season reminds me a lot of Gomes' offensive numbers. Same trend.
Difference is he plays CF, not LF.

After looking at his defensive "numbers" from last year, Fowler was bad out there.

[edabbs44]

Difference is he plays CF, not LF.

After looking at his defensive "numbers" from last year, Fowler was bad out there.

Was meaning more of the one huge month skewing the others.

[reds44]

Was meaning more of the one huge month skewing the others.
He had an above .750 OPS in half of his month.

[dougdirt]

He had an above .750 OPS in half of his month.

Also played in Coors.

[Hoosier Red]

Good point Doug, even with the humidor, Coors Field can be a boon to fast centerfielder types. The outfield is so huge and if you hit a gap and are fast it's almost an automatic triple.


Anyway, despite striking out with the bases loaded, Drew got on base two times tonight. If he does that every night, we'll all be pretty happy.

His leadoff walk in the 2nd was a great at bat.

[oregonred]

Drew is still a big factor in why the staff has given up 56 fewer runs this season then at the same time last year. On base twice tonight. He is streaky, but needs to be left alone.

[Homer Bailey]

Drew is still a big factor in why the staff has given up 56 fewer runs this season then at the same time last year. On base twice tonight. He is streaky, but needs to be left alone.

Thank. You.

[fearofpopvol1]

I'm more worried about Gomes right now than I am Stubbs. I'd love to know how many first pitch swings Gomes has made since the ASB. Most of which have turned into 1-pitch outs. I'm betting it's a LOT.

[reds44]

Can we put the uncle back in the title?


1 for his last 36 with 18 Ks.

[mth123]

Can we put the uncle back in the title?


1 for his last 36 with 18 Ks.

Until this cold streak, I actually think that Stubbs has done ok this year. I wasn't expecting much and thought handing him CF was a questionable decision. The fact that he had a good spring made it OK and though he's been streaky, he was OK until lately. I don't think I'd consider him a failure, but would send him to AAA for a couple weeks to see if he gets going. In the meantime, bring Dickerson back and let he and Heisey platoon in CF. Stubbs would be back up by mid-August, but its time for a change to get things going IMO.

[WVRedsFan]

Stubbs and Bruce have similar statistics. Acutally, Stubbs has outperformed Bruce in several categories:

Bruce has batted 31 more times.
Bruce has a higher batting average by .32.
Bruce's OBP is .329 while Stubbs is .297.
Stubbs has 13 HR while Bruce has 10.
Stubbs has 49 RBI while batting lower in the lineup and Bruce has 41.
Stubbs has scored 54 runs and Bruce 53.
Stubbs has stolen 18 bases and Bruce 5.
They both strike out a bunch--Stubbs has 111 and Bruce has 98.
Both are streaky hitters with long periods of hitting well and long periods of oh-fers

Quite frankly, I see similarities in the performance of both players. Many want to use the age card with Bruce being only 23, but Stubbs is only 25 and hasn't played in the majors as long. If you send Stubbs back to AAA, you have to consider sending Bruce back too.

One final thought...between them they have scored 107 runs and driven in 90. Who is going to fill their shoes? Dickerson? Don't make me laugh.

[SMcGavin]

One final thought...between them they have scored 107 runs and driven in 90. Who is going to fill their shoes? Dickerson? Don't make me laugh.

If you really want to laugh, go compare the career stats of Dickerson vs. Stubbs.

[Blitz Dorsey]

Bruce put up much-better minor league numbers than Stubbs, he's 2.5 years younger, let's not lump them together.

[SMcGavin]

Bruce put up much-better minor league numbers than Stubbs, he's 2.5 years younger, let's not lump them together.

Agreed.

[reds44]

One final thought...between them they have scored 107 runs and driven in 90. Who is going to fill their shoes? Dickerson? Don't make me laugh.
Bat Dickerson leadoff vs. RHP. Period.

[corkedbat]

Bruce also has five more games and 31 more at bats. Saying that Bruce's numbers are comparable to Stubbs is far from a feather in Jay's cap. Bruce's offensive ceiling is much higher. If the numbers for Bruce and Stubbs are at all comparable - Jay is way behind.

[11larkin11]

Platoons ALWAYS look good on paper.

On the field, they never work.

[WVRedsFan]

Bruce put up much-better minor league numbers than Stubbs, he's 2.5 years younger, let's not lump them together.Minor leage...I don't believe that counts.

Listen guys, I'm just saying that Stubbs has been more productive in a way than Bruce and no one is screaming about Bruce. Well almost no one. As for Dickerson...well we all worry about Rolen. Looks like Dickerson is a bigger risk.

Oh yeah, it's the money. I forgot about that...

[Blitz Dorsey]

Minor leage...I don't believe that counts.

Listen guys, I'm just saying that Stubbs has been more productive in a way than Bruce and no one is screaming about Bruce. Well almost no one. As for Dickerson...well we all worry about Rolen. Looks like Dickerson is a bigger risk.

Oh yeah, it's the money. I forgot about that...

I'm pretty sure that counts when we're talking about how good a 23-year-old player is. Bruce's minor league #'s indicate he has a chance of having MLB success. Can't say the same about Stubbs' minor league #'s.

[WVRedsFan]

But Blitz, I'm not dissing Jay. Not at all, I'm just saying that the constant melodrama agaisnt Stubbs seems to be ignoring the unproductiveness of Bruce. Neither has done well and may not ever. I have no idea. The lovefest that many have had here for other players--you can name them...Denorfia and now Janish, Hanigan (good day today, btw), and Dickerson defies description. Yes, the Reds have better options, but this team seems to be in sync. Dickerson has his own problems, most of which is injuries. He's shown nothing to me to believe that he can drive in 49-50 runs in a whole season. His defense is suspect--we've seen him try to play right field with disastrous results. Yep, I like him, but he shows nothing to me that would indicate that he could make a difference. Like Stubbs and Bruce he strikes out a lot and I simply think we have better options. There is a reason that the Reds brass is keeping him in the minors. I don't know the reason, but there is one. I like the fact that Stubbs may get hot and maybe even Bruce. So far we are double digits over .500 so far. That sure as heck is much better than the last 10 years, I'm willing to see what happens with what we have and that includes letting a career poor batter like Janish stay on the bech and a learning Bruce take right field every day. I'd like to see Heisey platoon with Bruce, but it's not to be. And Gomes will always start in left. If we win, I don't care.

[fearofpopvol1]

Stubbs and Bruce have similar statistics. Acutally, Stubbs has outperformed Bruce in several categories:

Bruce has batted 31 more times.
Bruce has a higher batting average by .32.
Bruce's OBP is .329 while Stubbs is .297.
Stubbs has 13 HR while Bruce has 10.
Stubbs has 49 RBI while batting lower in the lineup and Bruce has 41.
Stubbs has scored 54 runs and Bruce 53.
Stubbs has stolen 18 bases and Bruce 5.
They both strike out a bunch--Stubbs has 111 and Bruce has 98.
Both are streaky hitters with long periods of hitting well and long periods of oh-fers

Quite frankly, I see similarities in the performance of both players. Many want to use the age card with Bruce being only 23, but Stubbs is only 25 and hasn't played in the majors as long. If you send Stubbs back to AAA, you have to consider sending Bruce back too.

One final thought...between them they have scored 107 runs and driven in 90. Who is going to fill their shoes? Dickerson? Don't make me laugh.

Bruce has been 1.5 WAR, Stubbs 1 WAR. It's not significant, but Jay has had the better year than Stubbs. And he's a lot younger.

I'm not really down that much on Stubbs. I think he's still learning (as is Bruce) and that he'll come around. I don't think Stubbs is ever going to be a stud, but when he adds some more OBP and cuts down on the Ks, he'll be quite valuable to the Reds.

[Big Klu]

Platoons ALWAYS look good on paper.

On the field, they never work.

Tell that to Earl Weaver.

Geez, as recently as 2006, the Reds had a pretty productive 1B platoon in Scott Hatteberg and Rich Aurilia. And in '07, they had a somewhat less productive but still effective platoon in Hatteberg and Jeff Conine.

[Ron Madden]

Tell that to Earl Weaver.

Geez, as recently as 2006, the Reds had a pretty productive 1B platoon in Scott Hatteberg and Rich Aurilia. And in '07, they had a somewhat less productive but still effective platoon in Hatteberg and Jeff Conine.

Hal McRae and Bernie Carbo in 1970?

[Big Klu]

Hal McRae and Bernie Carbo in 1970?

Good one.

How about Hal Morris and Todd Benzinger at 1B in 1990? Or Jeff Branson and Mark Lewis at 3B in 1995?

[mth123]

Stubbs and Bruce have similar statistics. Acutally, Stubbs has outperformed Bruce in several categories:

Bruce has batted 31 more times.
Bruce has a higher batting average by .32.
Bruce's OBP is .329 while Stubbs is .297.
Stubbs has 13 HR while Bruce has 10.
Stubbs has 49 RBI while batting lower in the lineup and Bruce has 41.
Stubbs has scored 54 runs and Bruce 53.
Stubbs has stolen 18 bases and Bruce 5.
They both strike out a bunch--Stubbs has 111 and Bruce has 98.
Both are streaky hitters with long periods of hitting well and long periods of oh-fers

Quite frankly, I see similarities in the performance of both players. Many want to use the age card with Bruce being only 23, but Stubbs is only 25 and hasn't played in the majors as long. If you send Stubbs back to AAA, you have to consider sending Bruce back too.

One final thought...between them they have scored 107 runs and driven in 90. Who is going to fill their shoes? Dickerson? Don't make me laugh.

Your numbers provide substantial evidence that both positions are lacking in typical production and improvement is needed. Stubbs is the one in the 1 for 36 slump and needs to get on a roll right now. I agree that Bruce could use it too, but Bruce is at least getting a hit once in a while and its only for a couple weeks.

I could get on board with finding a roster spot and going with 6 OF and a platoon at all three positions. Nix/Gomes in LF (Nix has had limited play but has been the most productive of the OF group when he's in there), Dickerson/Stubbs (Probably not a straight platoon, I'd want Stubbs in there more than the typical RH half of a platoon) and Bruce/Heisey. Somebody snaps out of it and gets hot then they go back to playing every day. The OF production has got to improve and platooning just might do it.

This is another reason that a trade was needed. This roster needed to be reconfigured a bit. 6 OF is hard to manage when none can help in the IF if necessary. Adding a Kelly Johnson as one of the LH guys and utilizing his ability to play 2B (and maybe 3B) to provide some flexibility would have worked. I can't imagine that the Reds couldn't have had him for something that they have no room for (Lecure/Del Rosario or something along those lines.) There is simply no reason for the D-Backs to hold on to him.

[pahster]

Tell that to Earl Weaver.

Geez, as recently as 2006, the Reds had a pretty productive 1B platoon in Scott Hatteberg and Rich Aurilia. And in '07, they had a somewhat less productive but still effective platoon in Hatteberg and Jeff Conine.

It hasn't even been that long. Last year's Gomes and Nix platoon was pretty effective.

[Kc61]

I would give Stubbs several days off and use Heisey in CF for those days.

Stubbs was playing ok until recently. I think with some rest and work on the sidelines he will be ok.

I wouldn't do anything dramatic until trying this possible solution.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

I know Stubbs has been compared a few times to Mike Cameron, but I'm curious if there has ever been a Dale Murphy comparison on him. Of course, as far as his ceiling goes.

I was thinking of Dale Murphy after he hit the shot at Wrigley today.

I know Stubbs has more speed (as far as SB's), but his power and K numbers are similar at this point. And I do realize that Murphy got started a lot sooner (over 2000 PA's before he turned 26).

Just wondering what people think.

[RedEye]

I know Stubbs has been compared a few times to Mike Cameron, but I'm curious if there has ever been a Dale Murphy comparison on him. Of course, as far as his ceiling goes.

I was thinking of Dale Murphy after he hit the shot at Wrigley today.

I know Stubbs has more speed (as far as SB's), but his power and K numbers are similar at this point. And I do realize that Murphy got started a lot sooner (over 2000 PA's before he turned 26).

Just wondering what people think.

Interesting comparison. I was actually thinking that another comp would be Arizona's Chris Young. Another great defensive OF with power/speed and questionable contact skills IIRC.

[fearofpopvol1]

Dude was the MVP today, as my buddy who's a Cubs fan said.

Stubbs is super streaky, but he does seem to have big games now and then. And I love that seemingly they always come against the Cubs!!

[muddie]

I know Stubbs has been compared a few times to Mike Cameron, but I'm curious if there has ever been a Dale Murphy comparison on him. Of course, as far as his ceiling goes.

I was thinking of Dale Murphy after he hit the shot at Wrigley today.

I know Stubbs has more speed (as far as SB's), but his power and K numbers are similar at this point. And I do realize that Murphy got started a lot sooner (over 2000 PA's before he turned 26).

Just wondering what people think.

I hadn't thought of the comparison but it makes sense really. Stubbs is a long way from being a polished player in this league but a year or two out this may be a very feasible comparison.

[TRF]

I found this interesting on ESPN today


He's still young enough to figure things out, but he's not a great defender and his speedy wheels won't matter much if he can't get to first base.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?page=dogdays_100809reds
from Rob Neyer

[OnBaseMachine]

I found this interesting on ESPN today



from Rob Neyer

Neyer must be watching a different Stubbs. I think Stubbs has the best range of any center fielder in the game outside of maybe Franklin Gutierrez. Stubbs has had a few problems around the wall but a lot of guys don't even get to those balls.

[Homer Bailey]

I saw that too. At first I wondered if it was a typo, and I'm still not convinced it wasn't.

[flyer85]

Neyer must be watching a different Stubbs. I think Stubbs has the best range of any center fielder in the game outside of maybe Franklin Gutierrez. Stubbs has had a few problems around the wall but a lot of guys don't even get to those balls.
Stubbs has great range but the wall is an issue, IMO its what makes Heisey a better defensive OF. Heisey has no fear of the wall and has made numerous catches that Stubbs shies away from. Stubbs starts pulling up a good 3-4 steps before he gets to the wall.

[edabbs44]

Neyer must be watching a different Stubbs. I think Stubbs has the best range of any center fielder in the game outside of maybe Franklin Gutierrez. Stubbs has had a few problems around the wall but a lot of guys don't even get to those balls.

I doubt he is watching a lot of him. UZR isn't a huge fan of Stubbs.

[Homer Bailey]

Stubbs has great range but the wall is an issue, IMO its what makes Heisey a better defensive OF. Heisey has no fear of the wall and has made numerous catches that Stubbs shies away from. Stubbs starts pulling up a good 3-4 steps before he gets to the wall.

I'm not seeing what you're seeing. I've seen Heisey make that one catch against the Braves, but I don't remember seeing any other plays near the wall that Stubbs wouldn't make. I can remember 2 plays where Stubbs failed to catch balls at the wall, but I can also remember plays that Stubbs made while crashing into the wall.

I just don't think the whole "afraid of the wall" thing flies for Stubbs as much as some people want to label him as that.

[reds44]

Stubbs is horrible near the wall.

[flyer85]

Stubbs is horrible near the wall.without a doubt. I can't remember anyone (and I mean anyone) that shies away from the wall as early as he does.

[nate]

Stubbs has had all of, what...three plays near the wall.

I don't think that's indicative of "horrible."

[Homer Bailey]

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=8435187

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=6573145

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=6493017

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=6210703

?

[hebroncougar]

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=8435187

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=6573145

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=6493017

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=6210703

?

Stop providing evidence to the contrary. Don't you know, if a guy makes a poor play or 2, he's obviously afraid of the wall?

[flyer85]

UZR 150 is -1.1

[Homer Bailey]

UZR 150 is -1.1

Yet any scouting report ever made says that Stubbs is a plus plus center fielder.

[nate]

UZR 150 is -1.1

In 19 more games, Stubbs will have approximately 1/3rds of an acceptable UZR sample.

[cincrazy]

I think Stubbs is an adequate defender. He doesn't hurt us. But I've never seen anything to indicate he's a "great" defender as many feel. I don't think his defense makes up for the fact that he's been horrible at the plate for long stretches this season. Give me Chris Heisey long-term over Drew Stubbs. Stubbs has been nothing more than he was in the minors. Speed, some power, horrible average, and even worse on-base skills compared to his minor league numbers.

[RedsManRick]

Can we please stop confusing performance for ability. Drew Stubbs may have played a mediocre CF thus far in 2010 and still be a "plus defender" from that "what should we expect from him in the future?" perspective.

[Razor Shines]

I think Stubbs is an adequate defender. He doesn't hurt us. But I've never seen anything to indicate he's a "great" defender as many feel. I don't think his defense makes up for the fact that he's been horrible at the plate for long stretches this season. Give me Chris Heisey long-term over Drew Stubbs. Stubbs has been nothing more than he was in the minors. Speed, some power, horrible average, and even worse on-base skills compared to his minor league numbers.

:laugh:, I guess that's one way to put it.

[Homer Bailey]

Stubbs since getting a few days off in the beginning of this month:

.313/.357/.531/.888

Sprinkle in the 6 bases he's swiped, and it's pretty clear that the few days off did this man some good. Such a talented baseball player, and if he ever figures out a way to cut his K% by 6-8%, we could easily have an all-star on our hands. Still love watching him play everyday, and pick it in centerfield.

OPS is up to .719 for the year. Still not great obviously, but around where we probably expected it, no?

[OldXOhio]

Stubbs since getting a few days off in the beginning of this month:

.313/.357/.531/.888

Sprinkle in the 6 bases he's swiped, and it's pretty clear that the few days off did this man some good. Such a talented baseball player, and if he ever figures out a way to cut his K% by 6-8%, we could easily have an all-star on our hands. Still love watching him play everyday, and pick it in centerfield.

OPS is up to .719 for the year. Still not great obviously, but around where we probably expected it, no?

The bigger question is where does he hit in the lineup? At this clip, Dusty might just leave him at the top, perhaps even when BP returns.

[RollyInRaleigh]

His defense in centerfield is huge. I love watching both he and Jay Bruce play the outfield. They have been such a plus, defensively for this team. As a former pitcher, I know how much it matters to have the confidence in knowing that your centerfielder is going to run most everything down.

[PuffyPig]

I think Stubbs is an adequate defender. He doesn't hurt us. But I've never seen anything to indicate he's a "great" defender as many feel. I don't think his defense makes up for the fact that he's been horrible at the plate for long stretches this season. Give me Chris Heisey long-term over Drew Stubbs. Stubbs has been nothing more than he was in the minors. Speed, some power, horrible average, and even worse on-base skills compared to his minor league numbers.

Great defenders somethimes make it look so easy you forget how good they are.

And make no mistake, Stubbs plays a superb CF.

[Caveat Emperor]

Apparently, I skipped over this earlier, but I question the validity of any metric that says Drew Stubbs is a mediocre or "average" fielder. I've seen bad centerfield defense, I've seen average centerfield defense and Drew Stubbs is nowhere near what I'd consider bad or average.

[fearofpopvol1]

Stubbs is almost at 2 WAR. He may even get up to 2.5 by the end of the season. He's definitely helping the team. I would expect he could be as good as 3 WAR in the future.

[RedsManRick]

Stubbs is almost at 2 WAR. He may even get up to 2.5 by the end of the season. He's definitely helping the team. I would expect he could be as good as 3 WAR in the future.

And most of that value is from his bat, not his glove, which UZR has as marginally above above. I remain concerned about his contact issues (his overall contact % is 6th worth in the majors among qualified hitters).

At this point, he looks an awful lot like BJ Upton, the version whose BABIP and HR/FB regressed back to normal. Even watching them play, there's a lot of similarities in their skill sets, right down to the big power potential that only shows up on fits and spurts. Stubbs is just 2 months younger than Upton.

[nemesis]

OPS is up to .719 for the year. Still not great obviously, but around where we probably expected it, no?

It is. I think if you had told anyone at the beginning of the year that Stubbs would OPS Between .700 to .725 for the year a vast majority would have taken it. I did a little research to see how his 1st full year year compared to similar players.

Colby Rasmus - 2009 .307/.407/.714 (16 HR/52 RBI) put up the most similar numbers in similar ball parks...
Colby Rasmus - 2010 .352/.501/.853 (19 HR/54 RBI)

Shane Victorino - .346/.414/.760 (6 HR/46 RBI)

Matt Kemp - .340/.459/.799 (18 HR/76 RBI)

Marlon Byrd - .366/.418/.785 (7 HR/45 RBI)

Chris Young - .295/.467/.762 (32 HR/68 RBI)

Adam Jones - .311/.400/.711 (9 HR/57 RBI)

Jacoby Ellsbury - .336/.394/.730 (9 HR/47 RBI)

Alex Rios - .338/.383/.721 (1 HR/28 RBI)

David DeJesus - ..360/.402/.762 (7 HR/39 RBI)

Torii Hunter - .309/.380/.689 (9 HR/35 RBI)

Drew Stubbs - .306/.413/.719 (15 HR/59 RBI)

So there is obviously a large chance that he will show improvement in 2011 and 2012.

[Homer Bailey]

I think his ceiling is entirely dependent on his contact rate. I think he is literally well above average in every other phase of the game aside from contact.

[jojo]

Apparently, I skipped over this earlier, but I question the validity of any metric that says Drew Stubbs is a mediocre or "average" fielder. I've seen bad centerfield defense, I've seen average centerfield defense and Drew Stubbs is nowhere near what I'd consider bad or average.

In 1340 defensive innings, UZR rates him as a +7 UZR/150... Dewan's +/- has him at +8 over that time frame. Sounds about right to me given some of the of the goofs he's made along the way...

[oneupper]

If he can improve his bunting, his average/OBP can improve substantially.
I was pleased with the bunt he put down on Sunday. Not great, but good enough.

He is SO fast, any decent bunt is a hit.

This story by Hal is old but...here's the link

http://www.daytondailynews.com/o/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/cincinnatireds/entries/2010/07/20/for_those_who_have_wondered.html

[aubashbrother]

I still like the Mike Cameron comp for Stubbs but with more speed

[Roy Tucker]

Listening to Thom Brennaman and the Cowboy yesterday, I think Thom has the same kind of man-crush on Drew Stubbs as his dad did on Steve Finley.

[Chip R]

Listening to Thom Brennaman and the Cowboy yesterday, I think Thom has the same kind of man-crush on Drew Stubbs as his dad did on Steve Finley.


I'm pretty sure Thom was the one with the man-crush on Finley - he of the young body.

[RichRed]

I'm pretty sure Thom was the one with the man-crush on Finley - he of the young body.

Wasn't that Conine?

[westofyou]

Wasn't that Conine?

For Marty, Thom did love Finely for the same thing, Finley started taking Pilate's as he got older and really stressed that as his ability to play longer.

[traderumor]

Listening to Thom Brennaman and the Cowboy yesterday, I think Thom has the same kind of man-crush on Drew Stubbs as his dad did on Steve Finley.I don't know, his boy nicknamed him "Stubby." Like Radar O'Reilly said when called "Stinky" by a sleepwalking Hawkeye, "Hey, that's the kind of name that can stick with a guy."

[OnBaseMachine]

Apparently, I skipped over this earlier, but I question the validity of any metric that says Drew Stubbs is a mediocre or "average" fielder. I've seen bad centerfield defense, I've seen average centerfield defense and Drew Stubbs is nowhere near what I'd consider bad or average.

Agreed. UZR says Drew Stubbs is basically a league average defender. I can't agree with that. I watch a lot of baseball, and from what I've seen, the only center fielder who has the range to match Stubbs is Franklin Gutierrez. I've watched Stubbs turn numerous tough plays into routine plays. Take yesterday for example. Aramis Ramirez hit a ball toward left-center that looked like double off the bat - Drew Stubbs caught it without leaving his feet. He and Jay Bruce are a lot of fun to watch in the outfield.

[reds44]

I don't know, I kind of agree with UZR. Stubbs is really good at going side to side, but he's not great going back or in. There were a couple balls hit in front of him yesterday that the Cubs announcers thought he should have caught.

[Cedric]

I don't know, I kind of agree with UZR. Stubbs is really good at going side to side, but he's not great going back or in. There were a couple balls hit in front of him yesterday that the Cubs announcers thought he should have caught.

Dusty likes his CF's to play deep. He even joked about how Edmonds would test him.

[Plus Plus]

I don't know, I kind of agree with UZR. Stubbs is really good at going side to side, but he's not great going back or in. There were a couple balls hit in front of him yesterday that the Cubs announcers thought he should have caught.

The Cubs announcers also spent an entire inning breaking down why Alfonso Soriano got a day off.

They get no credit from me. I think Stubbs is great out in CF.

[camisadelgolf]

The Cubs' TV announcers are horrible. Not only did they make up a bunch of stuff about Votto in an effort to get Chicago to hate him, they were talking about how the radar gun in Louisville is undoubtedly juiced despite the fact that every gun in the stadium backed it up.

[11larkin11]

I still prefer to call him Uncle. :cool:

[Homer Bailey]

I don't know, I kind of agree with UZR. Stubbs is really good at going side to side, but he's not great going back or in. There were a couple balls hit in front of him yesterday that the Cubs announcers thought he should have caught.

They said he gets them because he plays a more shallow centerfield.

[medford]

Agreed. UZR says Drew Stubbs is basically a league average defender. I can't agree with that. I watch a lot of baseball, and from what I've seen, the only center fielder who has the range to match Stubbs is Franklin Gutierrez. I've watched Stubbs turn numerous tough plays into routine plays. Take yesterday for example. Aramis Ramirez hit a ball toward left-center that looked like double off the bat - Drew Stubbs caught it without leaving his feet. He and Jay Bruce are a lot of fun to watch in the outfield.

That Cain dude for Milwaukee showed me something last night. I had never seen him before, but range is certainly not an issue for that dude. Heck, that was my thought even before he went into the wall to take that hit away from Janish.

[lollipopcurve]

I've said it before and I'll say it again -- Stubbs is OK out there. But he's nowhere near elite. He shies away from diving and from the wall, and he's occasionally shaky fielding balls on the ground. Most recently, I thought he let a couple bloops fall in front of him in the Cubs series that some others may have caught. Generally speaking, his style is graceful -- and conservative.

Nice speed, solid arm, and he'll look good chasing down some balls in the gap. But I think he lacks the pure instincts and fearlessness that the great ones have.

[jojo]

I've said it before and I'll say it again -- Stubbs is OK out there. But he's nowhere near elite. He shies away from diving and from the wall, and he's occasionally shaky fielding balls on the ground. Most recently, I thought he let a couple bloops fall in front of him in the Cubs series that some others may have caught. Generally speaking, his style is graceful -- and conservative.

Nice speed, solid arm, and he'll look good chasing down some balls in the gap. But I think he lacks the pure instincts and fearlessness that the great ones have.

I think he's got all of the tools but I'm not surprised that UZR and Dewans don't rate him as a leader yet.

[lollipopcurve]

I think he's got all of the tools but I'm not surprised that UZR and Dewans don't rate him as a leader yet.

Depends on what you consider to be tools.

[jojo]

Depends on what you consider to be tools.

Speed, arm, he generally takes good routes... I think it's a safe bet he'll grade out as a significantly plus centerfielder. He may never have a season like Gutierrez had last year but if he is something like a +10ish center fielder, he'd be among the best fielders in the game.

[Caveat Emperor]

I've said it before and I'll say it again -- Stubbs is OK out there. But he's nowhere near elite. He shies away from diving and from the wall, and he's occasionally shaky fielding balls on the ground. Most recently, I thought he let a couple bloops fall in front of him in the Cubs series that some others may have caught. Generally speaking, his style is graceful -- and conservative.

Nice speed, solid arm, and he'll look good chasing down some balls in the gap. But I think he lacks the pure instincts and fearlessness that the great ones have.

The "wall" problem Stubbs has is overblown in the extreme around here, IMO.

[bucksfan2]

The "wall" problem Stubbs has is overblown in the extreme around here, IMO.

I would much rather have a CF with a "wall" problem like Stubbs than see a player do what Cain did last night. Great catch but man o man that guy is playing with fire. I would much rather see my CF allow a double than see him crash into the wall and end up on the DL.

[Brutus]

I think he's got all of the tools but I'm not surprised that UZR and Dewans don't rate him as a leader yet.

Out of curiosity, what is it you see that would lead you to conclude he should be around average in these ratings as opposed to above average?

I watch a lot of baseball, and with all due respect to the methodology and results of these metrics, I see a guy that has few peers when it comes to the ease of tracking down and catching the baseball out in center. Gutierrez is a freak of nature, so I won't even worry about whether Stubbs' UZR compares to him. But being down 10-12 runs with what you even conclude he could be is a pretty big chunk. So what is it that one, with the eye test, could justify causing the absence of those 10 runs?

[_Sir_Charles_]

But I think he lacks the pure instincts and fearlessness that the great ones have.

I agree with this, and I love Stubbs' defense. But he does not play the OF aggressively enough. That may come with time. But he's certainly got the tools. And other than that one fault, he IS elite in all other areas IMO. But that IS one big area that's holding him back.

And to be clear, it isn't the "wall problem" I'm referring to. But rather diving in general....in any directions. He seems to shy away from contact...wall, ground or teammate. It's not a bad thing, just something I think he'll get better at...knowing WHEN to "go for it".

[Hoosier Red]

I may have asked this before but what does the impact of having excellent fielders on either side of you have on your UZR or other fielding metrics.

Does the fact that any ball hit in the RCF gap is caught by either Stubbs or Bruce diminish each of their respective zone ratings? In other words is there any way to account for balls Stubbs could have reached but were more easily fielded by Bruce or vice versa?

[westofyou]

I would much rather have a CF with a "wall" problem like Stubbs than see a player do what Cain did last night. Great catch but man o man that guy is playing with fire. I would much rather see my CF allow a double than see him crash into the wall and end up on the DL.

Guys lose their careers to walls, Reiser, Bobby V, are just 2 guys who were never the same after they displayed the 'fearless' need to catch the ball.

I take the fact that he knows where the wall is as proof that he pretty much knows where he is on the field. The ones who catch the walls are usually playing on athletic ability 1st and knowledge 2nd.

[jojo]

Out of curiosity, what is it you see that would lead you to conclude he should be around average in these ratings as opposed to above average?

I watch a lot of baseball, and with all due respect to the methodology and results of these metrics, I see a guy that has few peers when it comes to the ease of tracking down and catching the baseball out in center. Gutierrez is a freak of nature, so I won't even worry about whether Stubbs' UZR compares to him. But being down 10-12 runs with what you even conclude he could be is a pretty big chunk. So what is it that one, with the eye test, could justify causing the absence of those 10 runs?

First, clearly I think he is above average (as his rating in over 1300 defensive innings suggests).

As for his in season rating thus far, he's had several plays that I think most good center fielders would've made and he's had a few boneheaded oopsies... he's just not having a stellar defensive year.

But again, the underlying skills are there IMHO. He'll consistently rate as a plus defender over large stretches of innings....

[lollipopcurve]

And to be clear, it isn't the "wall problem" I'm referring to. But rather diving in general....in any directions. He seems to shy away from contact...wall, ground or teammate. It's not a bad thing, just something I think he'll get better at...knowing WHEN to "go for it".

Agree 100%. Unfortunately, it won't be easy for him to lose that shying away instinct. Outfielders tend to get more conservative with time.

Not hating on Stubbs here -- I'm happy with him as the now and future CF. I just think his style garners him praise for great defense, and those two things are not the same.

[Brutus]

First, clearly I think he is above average (as his rating in over 1300 defensive innings suggests).

As for his in season rating thus far, he's had several plays that I think most good center fielders would've made and he's had a few boneheaded oopsies... he's just not having a stellar defensive year.

But again, the underlying skills are there IMHO. He'll consistently rate as a plus defender over large stretches of innings....

He's had a few boneheaded plays, but other than truly special players like Gutierrez, I've never seen guys that don't have those.

My point I'm trying to make, though I didn't express it very clearly, is that I don't think we can truly differentiate our opinions from the numbers by saying 'I think this guy looks like a +10, where this guy only looks this year like a +2.'

If I'm going to attempt to quantify a player's defensive production within a season, I'm not sure any of us can really do that by parsing the difference in 5, 6 or 7 runs over the course of a season. I'm not saying the plays don't amount to that, because I feel they do... but I think it's too gradual an accumulation to really know whether the defensive metrics should have picked up on it or not.

We can watch players and generally label them great, good, average, poor, bad, etc., but I think we're stretching it at this point in time to really parse whether such performances within a season constitute +2, +10, etc.

According to UZR, Stubbs had +6 runs in 368 innings last year. Yet this year, he's +0.8 in 981 innings. That doesn't pass the smell test, honestly.

[lollipopcurve]

I take the fact that he knows where the wall is as proof that he pretty much knows where he is on the field. The ones who catch the walls are usually playing on athletic ability 1st and knowledge 2nd.

The great wall defenders -- Hunter, Eric Davis, Griffey, Gutierrez, Edmonds, etc., could, in their primes, maintain an unerring knowledge of where the wall was while they were running and could scale the wall without slowing or adjusting their stride all that much. Run, leap, catch -- all fluid. The next time you see Stubbs do that it will be the first time. He can go over the wall to get the ball, but only if he's already standing at the wall, or nearly so, and mostly because he's 6'5" -- you can call Stubbs' wall defense "intelligent" or "health-conscious" or whatever, but I see it as tentative, perhaps conservative at its best.

[westofyou]

The great wall defenders -- Hunter, Eric Davis, Griffey, Gutierrez, Edmonds, etc., could, in their primes, maintain an unerring knowledge of where the wall was while they were running and could scale the wall without slowing or adjusting their stride all that much. Run, leap, catch -- all fluid. The next time you see Stubbs do that it will be the first time. He can go over the wall to get the ball, but only if he's already standing at the wall, or nearly so, and mostly because he's 6'5" -- you can call Stubbs' wall defense "intelligent" or "health-conscious" or whatever, but I see it as tentative, perhaps conservative at its best.

Conservative is sometimes better, Griifey broke his wrist crashing into the wall in 95, E.D. had some wall injuries as well.

You want the out, but do we want the player out for months too?

[Hoosier Red]

The great wall defenders -- Hunter, Eric Davis, Griffey, Gutierrez, Edmonds, etc., could, in their primes, maintain an unerring knowledge of where the wall was while they were running and could scale the wall without slowing or adjusting their stride all that much. Run, leap, catch -- all fluid. The next time you see Stubbs do that it will be the first time. He can go over the wall to get the ball, but only if he's already standing at the wall, or nearly so, and mostly because he's 6'5" -- you can call Stubbs' wall defense "intelligent" or "health-conscious" or whatever, but I see it as tentative, perhaps conservative at its best.

I'm not sure Davis and Griffey are two good examples of this. Davis got hurt a number of times slamming hard into the wall, and didn't Griffey break his wrist at the wall?
I think most of the hard knocks at the wall are on harder hit line drives where a guy is tracking the ball and jumps to catch the ball and then bangs into the wall.

The plays where a guy can "climb the wall" have more to do with a higher trajectory fly ball and the player being fast enough to get back and judge the ball.

Stubbs is plenty fast to get back to any fly ball as fast or faster than any other CF.

[membengal]

Word on Davis. He lost a fearsome collision with the ivy covered bricks in Wrigley at the end of, I want to say, the 1987 season, that, in my mind, started a cycle of injuries that altered his career.

[bucksfan2]

I agree with this, and I love Stubbs' defense. But he does not play the OF aggressively enough. That may come with time. But he's certainly got the tools. And other than that one fault, he IS elite in all other areas IMO. But that IS one big area that's holding him back.

And to be clear, it isn't the "wall problem" I'm referring to. But rather diving in general....in any directions. He seems to shy away from contact...wall, ground or teammate. It's not a bad thing, just something I think he'll get better at...knowing WHEN to "go for it".

I don't but the diving thing one bit. Do you want him like Ryan Freel where he slows up to dive? Just because you don't see him on Web Gems or all over SportsCenter doesn't mean Stubbs doesn't make those plays. In reality Stubbs with his speed makes a lot of difficult plays look easy. He catches a lot of balls standing up that most CF's have to full out dive for. I just can't buy the diving argument.

[jojo]

He's had a few boneheaded plays, but other than truly special players like Gutierrez, I've never seen guys that don't have those.

My point I'm trying to make, though I didn't express it very clearly, is that I don't think we can truly differentiate our opinions from the numbers by saying 'I think this guy looks like a +10, where this guy only looks this year like a +2.'

If I'm going to attempt to quantify a player's defensive production within a season, I'm not sure any of us can really do that by parsing the difference in 5, 6 or 7 runs over the course of a season. I'm not saying the plays don't amount to that, because I feel they do... but I think it's too gradual an accumulation to really know whether the defensive metrics should have picked up on it or not.

We can watch players and generally label them great, good, average, poor, bad, etc., but I think we're stretching it at this point in time to really parse whether such performances within a season constitute +2, +10, etc.

According to UZR, Stubbs had +6 runs in 368 innings last year. Yet this year, he's +0.8 in 981 innings. That doesn't pass the smell test, honestly.

First, I always try to use an estimate of true talent as a basis for comparison.

Second, why would the numbers above fail a smell test? It's no different than a guy batting .385 for a month and then batting .256 for another month when he's likely something like a true talent .320 hitter..

[_Sir_Charles_]

I don't but the diving thing one bit. Do you want him like Ryan Freel where he slows up to dive? Just because you don't see him on Web Gems or all over SportsCenter doesn't mean Stubbs doesn't make those plays. In reality Stubbs with his speed makes a lot of difficult plays look easy. He catches a lot of balls standing up that most CF's have to full out dive for. I just can't buy the diving argument.

I'm not saying he has to dive. Not at all. I'm saying he has to learn WHEN to be aggressive. I've seen MANY balls hit that he's pulled up on when he had a legitimate shot at catching. Instead of pushing himself even HARDER to reach it...he's taken the conservative approach and pulled up to eliminate the possibility of the ball scooting past him if he missed it. In some respects that's a good thing, but he's almost never even attempted to catch those "iffy" balls.

[westofyou]

I don't but the diving thing one bit. Do you want him like Ryan Freel where he slows up to dive? Just because you don't see him on Web Gems or all over SportsCenter doesn't mean Stubbs doesn't make those plays. In reality Stubbs with his speed makes a lot of difficult plays look easy. He catches a lot of balls standing up that most CF's have to full out dive for. I just can't buy the diving argument.

I don't remember ever seeing Cesar Geronimo dive, not once.

[lollipopcurve]

I'm not saying he has to dive. Not at all. I'm saying he has to learn WHEN to be aggressive. I've seen MANY balls hit that he's pulled up on when he had a legitimate shot at catching. Instead of pushing himself even HARDER to reach it...he's taken the conservative approach and pulled up to eliminate the possibility of the ball scooting past him if he missed it. In some respects that's a good thing, but he's almost never even attempted to catch those "iffy" balls.

Agree 100%. The guy gets credit for "making tough plays look easy," when I wuld say he makes mildly challenging plays look easy. There's some style over substance going on here.

[Caveat Emperor]

I'm not saying he has to dive. Not at all. I'm saying he has to learn WHEN to be aggressive. I've seen MANY balls hit that he's pulled up on when he had a legitimate shot at catching. Instead of pushing himself even HARDER to reach it...he's taken the conservative approach and pulled up to eliminate the possibility of the ball scooting past him if he missed it. In some respects that's a good thing, but he's almost never even attempted to catch those "iffy" balls.

Of course, he's the idiot when he dives for a ball and it goes rolling past him to the wall for a triple when he could've held the runner to a single by taking the safe, smart play.

[_Sir_Charles_]

Of course, he's the idiot when he dives for a ball and it goes rolling past him to the wall for a triple when he could've held the runner to a single by taking the safe, smart play.

Which is why I said he has to learn WHEN to "go for it".

[westofyou]

Which is why I said he has to learn WHEN to "go for it".

Maybe he has 'learned' and we just can't quantify it from our couches at home?

[camisadelgolf]

Another thing worth noting is that we don't see Stubbs constantly running into the other outfielders, putting them at risk for injury.

[dougdirt]

Maybe he has 'learned' and we just can't quantify it from our couches at home?

Unpossible.

[lollipopcurve]

Just like almost any ball that Gomes doesn't catch is considered testimony to his inadequacy as a fielder, Stubbs can do no wrong out there.

Lot of adhering to received wisdom here, IMO.

[Bumstead]

Garry Templeton always argued that he got to and fielded the same balls Ozzie did, but he fielded them while standing up...

[Bumstead]

Just like almost any ball that Gomes doesn't catch is considered testimony to his inadequacy as a fielder, Stubbs can do no wrong out there.

Lot of adhering to received wisdom here, IMO.

So...Stubbs might not be a much better fielder than Gomes??? :eek:

[jojo]

Just like almost any ball that Gomes doesn't catch is considered testimony to his inadequacy as a fielder, Stubbs can do no wrong out there.

Lot of adhering to received wisdom here, IMO.

I for one at least think Stubbs is probably earning his UZR this season. So is Gomes for that matter....

[_Sir_Charles_]

Maybe he has 'learned' and we just can't quantify it from our couches at home?

It can't be that. I never watch from a couch. Desk chair or recliner. :cool:

[lollipopcurve]

I for one at least think Stubbs is probably earning his UZR this season. So is Gomes for that matter....

UZR is what it is -- I don't think it does a good job of telling us who the best are, but I'm not getting into that again.

I know Stuubs is a decent defender -- I just don't think he's all that, like many do. I know Gomes is shaky, I just don't think that almost any ball that falls in LF while he's out there was catchable, as some seem to.

Matter of degree (and when it comes to degrees, I certainly don't trust UZR to provide precision shading).

[mth123]

.

Agree 100%. Unfortunately, it won't be easy for him to lose that shying away instinct. Outfielders tend to get more conservative with time.

Not hating on Stubbs here -- I'm happy with him as the now and future CF. I just think his style garners him praise for great defense, and those two things are not the same.

:thumbup:

[camisadelgolf]

In Soviet Cuba . . . you not wear Hannah Montana backpack - HANNAH MONTANA BACKPACK WEAR YOU!

[TheNext44]

UZR is what it is -- I don't think it does a good job of telling us who the best are, but I'm not getting into that again.

I know Stuubs is a decent defender -- I just don't think he's all that, like many do. I know Gomes is shaky, I just don't think that almost any ball that falls in LF while he's out there was catchable, as some seem to.

Matter of degree (and when it comes to degrees, I certainly don't trust UZR to provide precision shading).

Take away Stubbs mental mistakes early in the year, and he's one of the best defensive CF in the game, easily top ten, maybe top five. I think UZR has it just about right, because when you do account for those mistakes, he's about average.

As for Gomes, I don't think there ever will exist a defensive rating system that could measure how horrible he truely is in LF. He's slow, gets terrible jumps on balls, has terrible fundamentals, and terrible decision making. His only redeeming factor on defense is that he has a lot of heart and tries really hard. I believe that last part makes it seem like he's not as bad as he really is.

UZR might not be great at precision shading, but its take on Stubbs and Gomes this year are not examples of it.

[Mario-Rijo]

In Soviet Cuba . . . you not wear Hannah Montana backpack - HANNAH MONTANA BACKPACK WEAR YOU!

A little tipsy again Cam? ;)

Wrong thread brother, but I know you'll catch it tomorrow. :D

[camisadelgolf]

A little tipsy again Cam? ;)

Wrong thread brother, but I know you'll catch it tomorrow. :D
Damn. I just checked the other thread like half an hour ago and thought, "What the . . . ? I could've sworn I pushed the 'submit' button."

It's funny you mention my drinking, though. I'm going straight to a bar once the Reds game is over. But don't worry--I'm walking. :)

[westofyou]

Brewers CF Cain has whiplash from his slam in the wall last night.

[Chip R]

Brewers CF Cain has whiplash from his slam in the wall last night.

No surprise there. Good thing it's not a concussion. Good article on ESPN.Com today about baseball players and concussions.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=crasnick_jerry&id=5513306

[bucksfan2]

Brewers CF Cain has whiplash from his slam in the wall last night.

And that is precisely my thing with Stubbs. You may get up and arms about him not laying our or not being good around the wall, but he is in there day in day out. Cain wasn't in the lineup yesterday and probably won't be in the lineup today. I would much rather give up a leadoff double to the 8 hitter in the lineup than see my starting CF lose a week's worth of playing time.

[lollipopcurve]

And that is precisely my thing with Stubbs. You may get up and arms about him not laying our or not being good around the wall, but he is in there day in day out. Cain wasn't in the lineup yesterday and probably won't be in the lineup today. I would much rather give up a leadoff double to the 8 hitter in the lineup than see my starting CF lose a week's worth of playing time.

I believe Stubbs could be more aggressive on some plays in which he would not be putting himself at risk.

I have to agree with the sentiment that some plays at the wall are not worth trying to make. But that does not include all plays at the wall.

[medford]

Take away Stubbs mental mistakes early in the year, and he's one of the best defensive CF in the game, easily top ten, maybe top five. I think UZR has it just about right, because when you do account for those mistakes, he's about average.

As for Gomes, I don't think there ever will exist a defensive rating system that could measure how horrible he truely is in LF. He's slow, gets terrible jumps on balls, has terrible fundamentals, and terrible decision making. His only redeeming factor on defense is that he has a lot of heart and tries really hard. I believe that last part makes it seem like he's not as bad as he really is.

UZR might not be great at precision shading, but its take on Stubbs and Gomes this year are not examples of it.

To me the worst thing w/ Gomes in LF is his decision making. His range has been ok to me (for a LF), but he makes so many poor decisions, trying to throw a runner out at home that he has no shot at, allowing those on base to move up an extra base. I think its part of his mentality, its all out, all the time, and he never lets up, I don't think his brain would allow him to not throw home on a situation he thinks he has even a 5% chance ot being successful

[traderumor]

Running into walls is going to happen. That doesn't mean it is advisable. Eric Davis lost a lot of games to the Wrigley brick. KGJ lost a lot of games due to the "I am going to catch every ball no matter what" mentality. The Josh Hamilton rule is in place in Texas, even moving him to help prevent wall crashing chances. I really think it is an unrealistic expectation that an OFer should lay out on the dead run, or head full speed into a hard wall for a random catch.

[Homer Bailey]

.743 OPS on the year after hitting his 18th HR of the year last night. I think he's going to be patrolling CF in GABP for the next 5 years or so.

[RedEye]

.743 OPS on the year after hitting his 18th HR of the year last night. I think he's going to be patrolling CF in GABP for the next 5 years or so.

Until he prices himself out of Cincy or until Yorman takes over? ;)

[pedro]

Running into walls is going to happen. That doesn't mean it is advisable. Eric Davis lost a lot of games to the Wrigley brick. KGJ lost a lot of games due to the "I am going to catch every ball no matter what" mentality. The Josh Hamilton rule is in place in Texas, even moving him to help prevent wall crashing chances. I really think it is an unrealistic expectation that an OFer should lay out on the dead run, or head full speed into a hard wall for a random catch.

Sure hasn't worked well for Josh Hamilton

News: Hamilton (ribs) took about 25 swings Tuesday before stopping due to pain in his ribs, the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports.

Spin: An MRI over the weekend revealed three bruised ribs and some inflammation, but the Rangers still have no potential timetable for the slugger's return.

[fearofpopvol1]

.743 OPS on the year after hitting his 18th HR of the year last night. I think he's going to be patrolling CF in GABP for the next 5 years or so.

For his rookie season, I think he has exceeded everyone's expectations...except maybe dougdirt. :cool:

[camisadelgolf]

Last year was his rookie year actually.

[LoganBuck]

Last year was his rookie year actually.

Well if we want to get complicated, Drew Stubbs finished one year in the big leagues on August 9th. He has now played in 178 games.

[reds44]

Sure hasn't worked well for Josh Hamilton

News: Hamilton (ribs) took about 25 swings Tuesday before stopping due to pain in his ribs, the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports.

Spin: An MRI over the weekend revealed three bruised ribs and some inflammation, but the Rangers still have no potential timetable for the slugger's return.
Luckily for us, Stubbs didn't spend multiple years of his life doing crack.

[paulrichjr]

For his rookie season, I think he has exceeded everyone's expectations...except maybe dougdirt. :cool:

The dude ought to get a LOT of credit for that one. He took some major grief over Stubbs...and Mesoraco. Reminds me a little of Dusty. :D

[paulrichjr]

Running into walls is going to happen. That doesn't mean it is advisable. Eric Davis lost a lot of games to the Wrigley brick. KGJ lost a lot of games due to the "I am going to catch every ball no matter what" mentality. The Josh Hamilton rule is in place in Texas, even moving him to help prevent wall crashing chances. I really think it is an unrealistic expectation that an OFer should lay out on the dead run, or head full speed into a hard wall for a random catch.


Just curious but what is the "Josh Hamilton Rule"? I assume something like no diving or something?

[Mario-Rijo]

Just curious but what is the "Josh Hamilton Rule"? I assume something like no diving or something?

More like no dives...

[cincrazy]

Luckily for us, Stubbs didn't spend multiple years of his life doing crack.

Not sure what that has to do with rib injuries...

[reds44]

Not sure what that has to do with rib injuries...
It has everything to do with Hamilton's lack of durability.

[Razor Shines]

It has everything to do with Hamilton's lack of durability.

Maybe, but he had injuries before the crack.

[LoganBuck]

Also the fact that Drew Stubbs is probably allowed to take pain killers, Josh Hamilton is not.

[The Operator]

Also the fact that Drew Stubbs is probably allowed to take pain killers, Josh Hamilton is not.He's not even allowed to take something such as Vicodin or Tylenol 3?

He's that much at risk for drug abuse? Yikes.

[pedro]

Also the fact that Drew Stubbs is probably allowed to take pain killers, Josh Hamilton is not.

Hadn't thought about that. I'd be very surprised if they let him anywhere near a vicodin.

[dougdirt]

Hadn't thought about that. I'd be very surprised if they let him anywhere near a vicodin.

Eh, it doesn't work for me anyways.... so it may not even make a difference for him either.

[kaldaniels]

Eh, it doesn't work for me anyways.... so it may not even make a difference for him either.

Certainly possible, but you are grasping.

[pedro]

either way, vicodin and oxy's are highly addictive and often used recreationally by people so I would think they'd look for non opiate based pain meds for him.

[reds1869]

either way, vicodin and oxy's are highly addictive and often used recreationally by people so I would think they'd look for non opiate based pain meds for him.

I agree. My mother recently had major surgery and became addicted to her painkillers--while under hospital care. Those drugs are every bit as dangerous as any of the illegal ones.

[kaldaniels]

No real debate needed, the fact is JH's past limits his options of painkillers.

[The Operator]

either way, vicodin and oxy's are highly addictive and often used recreationally by people so I would think they'd look for non opiate based pain meds for him.

It's his own fault, but that's unfortunate for Josh. There aren't many good options for analgesic medicine that don't involve an opioid of some kind. But that's life I guess. I have a bad back and there are some days I can't get by without a Tramadol or a Vicodin, but they certainly are a risky venture.

[dougdirt]

Certainly possible, but you are grasping.

Well sure. I was just simply stating that in my case, Tylenol works better than vicodin for pain and its not really all that close. Tylenol helps some. Vicodin is a waste of a trip to the pharmacy for me.

[westofyou]

Tylenol is processed through ones liver, I'll pass.

Vicodin just makes me sleepy

[dougdirt]

Tylenol is processed through ones liver, I'll pass.

Vicodin just makes me sleepy
Since I don't drink alcohol, its an even trade off, right? :confused:

[The Operator]

You're still getting tylenol with a Vicodin, though.

The average Vicodin is 5 mg Hydrocodone / 500 mg Acetaminophen.

[pedro]

Since I don't drink alcohol, its an even trade off, right? :confused:

Like anything, moderation is the key. If you take painkillers daily then using ones that are Acetaminophen based can reportedly cause liver damage. There's a lot of information out there if you google it.

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/PainNews/story?id=7699582&page=1

[westofyou]

You're still getting tylenol with a Vicodin, though.

The average Vicodin is 5 mg Hydrocodone / 500 mg Acetaminophen.

I have a bulging disc, I do advil

[The Operator]

I have a bulging disc, I do advilOh, I see... A Vicoprofen man. :cool: :p:


Note: This is one of the more interesting rabbit trails I've ever seen on a thread here at RedsZone, lol.

[dougdirt]

Like anything, moderation is the key. If you take painkillers daily then using ones that are Acetaminophen based can reportedly cause liver damage. There's a lot of information out there if you google it.

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/PainNews/story?id=7699582&page=1

I was kidding, somewhat. I don't take anything daily. Well except for showers.