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reds44
05-02-2010, 04:50 PM
.240/.275/.285/.559
.205/.238/.344/.582

Willy Tavers and Corey Patterson, the whipping boys of redszone (and rightfully so) the last two season. Dusty and Jocketty would brutally ripped for having them on the team, and batting them leadoff.

I understand here at redzone we all love our prospects, but the fact that it's nearly silent how bad Drew Stubbs has been is surprising.

.176/.287/.257/.544

Drew Stubbs has actually managed to be worse than both of them, offensively. It really should come as a surprise to nobody that he's been bad, because he wasn't any good in the minors.

Stubbs needs to be sent to AAA, and try to figure something out to cutdown on his strikeouts with his swing. He doesn't hit for any power, so there's no reason for him to strikeout as much as he does.

I have no idea if Heisey is better, and he may not be, but something has to be changed at this point.

OnBaseMachine
05-02-2010, 04:52 PM
I understand here at redzone we all love our prospects, but the fact that it's nearly silent how bad Drew Stubbs has been is surprising.


Silent? Really? There's two Drew Stubbs related threads on the first page alone. Stubbs is one of, if not the most bashed player on Redszone.

BTW, I'd drop him in the lineup before I'd send him to AAA.

_Sir_Charles_
05-02-2010, 04:57 PM
I'm not so sure. Stubbs absolutely crushed the ball this series. How many did he smash to the wall in center?

3 games in Houston, 4 for 9 with 3 walks
3 games in St.Louis, 1 for 12 with a double off the wall and 4 smashed to the wall in center

He's pretty far from one of our biggest worries IMO.

nate
05-02-2010, 04:58 PM
I understand here at redzone we all love our prospects, but the fact that it's nearly silent how bad Drew Stubbs has been is surprising.

This is totally untrue.

Slyder
05-02-2010, 05:04 PM
.240/.275/.285/.559
.205/.238/.344/.582

Willy Tavers and Corey Patterson, the whipping boys of redszone (and rightfully so) the last two season. Dusty and Jocketty would brutally ripped for having them on the team, and batting them leadoff.

I understand here at redzone we all love our prospects, but the fact that it's nearly silent how bad Drew Stubbs has been is surprising.

.176/.287/.257/.544

Drew Stubbs has actually managed to be worse than both of them, offensively. It really should come as a surprise to nobody that he's been bad, because he wasn't any good in the minors.

Stubbs needs to be sent to AAA, and try to figure something out to cutdown on his strikeouts with his swing. He doesn't hit for any power, so there's no reason for him to strikeout as much as he does.

I have no idea if Heisey is better, and he may not be, but something has to be changed at this point.

Even struggling and getting a bit unlucky he's still better than the smucks we had in CF that shall remain nameless. Even without the luck he's still finding 1b MORE than those two who shall remain nameless did. Give him time at one point one of the aforementioned smucks was leading the team in hitting we know how that ended.

Stubbs is one of the most cross examined guys on this team not because of him but because of who he isnt (he too shall remain nameless for those who are tired of the debates). Will he ever be even Good Farny (Freel) with the bat who knows thats something for another thread. He's young and unless you want to top load the lineup, with Votto, leadoff hitters are few across the league not just with us.

I do not think that Hanigan gets the playing time or would be as good at the top of the order just because then teams have to come after him, batting 7th or 8th he can take advantage of teams playing odds and giving us an extra baserunner and get the lineup turned over quicker.

Benihana
05-02-2010, 05:07 PM
I've been as vocal of a Stubbs basher as anyone this side of TRF, but at this point with Dickerson on the DL I'm not sure what else we can really do. As others have said, he MUST be dropped in the lineup at a minimum. I would also be rotating Nix in CF to play against righties, and if Stubbs doesn't pull his act together soon, I'd give Heisey a shot.

As I've said a dozen times, when he doesn't punish pitchers with power, they are going to come at him (as they have done.) The plate discipline he showed in the minors really doesn't mean much if he doesn't have the power to scare major league pitchers away.

The guy simply didn't hit in the minors, and he isn't hitting now. I'd try dropping him to 7th in the order for the next week or two, then give Heisey and Nix a shot to claim the job if things don't improve.

CTA513
05-02-2010, 05:12 PM
You can send him down but I wouldn't expect much from the guys in AAA since nobody seems to be hitting.

Slyder
05-02-2010, 05:15 PM
I've been as vocal of a Stubbs basher as anyone this side of TRF, but at this point with Dickerson on the DL I'm not sure what else we can really do. As others have said, he MUST be dropped in the lineup at a minimum. I would also be rotating Nix in CF to play against righties, and if Stubbs doesn't pull his act together soon, I'd give Heisey a shot.

As I've said a dozen times, when he doesn't punish pitchers with power, they are going to come at him (as they have done.) The plate discipline he showed in the minors really doesn't mean much if he doesn't have the power to scare major league pitchers away.

The guy simply didn't hit in the minors, and he isn't hitting now. I'd try dropping him to 7th in the order for the next week or two, then give Heisey and Nix a shot to claim the job if things don't improve.

Ive given up on seeing Stubbs lower in the order as long as Dusty Baker is here for whatever reason speed no matter how good of a hitter must bat leadoff... obp be darned. Nix isnt going to improve the team much, Nix is what he is. If youre going to give someone else a shot its got to be Heisey. I like Dickerson he cannot for the life of him stay on the field and stay healthy. We don't have a true hitter in CF until someone takes the bull by the horns and show they can do it consistantly and stay healthy in the process.

flyer85
05-02-2010, 05:19 PM
the difference is simply this (this is in no way an endorsement of Stubbs), Patterson and Taveras had already established who they were by the time they got to Cincinnati. Everyone knew what was coming, with Stubbs there is some hope, even if it is small.

Benihana
05-02-2010, 05:49 PM
the difference is simply this (this is in no way an endorsement of Stubbs), Patterson and Taveras had already established who they were by the time they got to Cincinnati. Everyone knew what was coming, with Stubbs there is some hope, even if it is small.

One could argue that Stubbs had shown who he was before he arrived as well. 25 years old and a career .765 OPS in the minor leagues isn't exactly something to get all jazzed up about. Just saying.

If you look at Reds OF prospects who have come through the system in the last fifteen years and had significant big league careers, the average drop-off from career minor league OPS to career major league OPS is about 100 points. Should Drew Stubbs be a major league starter if he can't get his OPS above .665?

Agreed there is still SOME hope. But you could argue that there was SOME hope (at the time) with Patterson as well.

Caveat Emperor
05-02-2010, 05:58 PM
Drew Stubbs has been pretty awful this year -- after being pretty mediocre his entire career in the minors.

The difference between him and RZ whipping boys Taveras/Patterson? There isn't a better option anywhere else on the team or in the minors right now.

For better or worse, they're stuck with Drew Stubbs until someone in the minors plays their way up to CF or the team acquires a better player.

Spring~Fields
05-02-2010, 06:03 PM
Taveras 09
April .351 .338 .689
May .307 .333 .640

Patterson 08
April .292 .488 .780
May .180 .197 .377

Stubbs 10
April .301 .271 .572
Update Apr/May
Drew Stubbs .179 .286 .269 .555

What does that say? That there are exceptions to speed always leading off ?

Could be worse, you could have Stubbs/Gomes batting one two.
Drew Stubbs .179 .286 .269 .555
Jonny Gomes .213 .250 .361 .611

Chip R
05-02-2010, 06:04 PM
The difference between him and RZ whipping boys Taveras/Patterson? There isn't a better option anywhere else on the team or in the minors right now.


Also, Stubbs is making the minimum while Taveras and Patterson made good money.

SMcGavin
05-02-2010, 06:22 PM
I would complain about Stubbs if he was playing ahead of Dickerson. But now that Dickerson's injured there isn't really a point. Probably not anyone better right now. (though he really should be moved down in the lineup)

TheNext44
05-02-2010, 06:27 PM
Willie Taveras on May 13, 2009

.322 .382 .413 .796

Corey Patterson on May 2, 2008

.214 .280 .464 .744

Moral:

It's early.

RedsManRick
05-02-2010, 06:29 PM
Also, Stubbs is making the minimum while Taveras and Patterson made good money.

And Stubbs has a few hundred major league plate appearances; Taveras and Patterson had 1000's to prove that they were not good hitters period, let alone leadoff candidates. We are still in the process of figuring out what Stubbs can do with major league pitching. In the words of Denny Green, Taveras and Patterson were who we thought they were.

Spring~Fields
05-02-2010, 06:34 PM
Willie Taveras on May 13, 2009

.322 .382 .413 .796

Corey Patterson on May 2, 2008

.214 .280 .464 .744

Moral:

It's early.

Are you saying that any of three, Taveras, Patterson or Stubbs are good major league leadoff batters?

Spring~Fields
05-02-2010, 06:37 PM
And Stubbs has a few hundred major league plate appearances; Taveras and Patterson had 1000's to prove that they were not good hitters period, let alone leadoff candidates. We are still in the process of figuring out what Stubbs can do with major league pitcher. In the words of Denny Green, Taveras and Patterson were who we thought they were.

Rick,
How long would you have had any of the three leading off for a team made up like Cincinnati, if you would have had them leading off at all?

TheNext44
05-02-2010, 06:38 PM
Are you saying that any of three, Taveras, Patterson or Stubbs are good leadoff batters?

I'm saying those numbers don't tell us.

Personally, I think Stubbs is a terrible leadoff hitter. I've said before, he reminds me more of Eric Davis than Vince Coleman (although he probably will end up more like Caesar Geronimo with a bit more power and a lot more speed). If he ever gets moved to the middle of the lineup, or even the #2 slot, I think he'll be fine.

Ron Madden
05-02-2010, 06:40 PM
the difference is simply this (this is in no way an endorsement of Stubbs), Patterson and Taveras had already established who they were by the time they got to Cincinnati. Everyone knew what was coming, with Stubbs there is some hope, even if it is small.



Agreed 100%.

Ron Madden
05-02-2010, 06:44 PM
And Stubbs has a few hundred major league plate appearances; Taveras and Patterson had 1000's to prove that they were not good hitters period, let alone leadoff candidates. We are still in the process of figuring out what Stubbs can do with major league pitcher. In the words of Denny Green, Taveras and Patterson were who we thought they were.

Very true 98.5% of RedsZone saw what was comming with Willy Taveras, the sad thing is Walt and Dusty didn't.

Spring~Fields
05-02-2010, 06:45 PM
If he ever gets moved to the middle of the lineup, or even the #2 slot, I think he'll be fine.

See you and I would do that, we might have never put the pressure on him to begin with at the leadoff spot, and we would move him down, even try him in the #2 slot eventually. The powers that be, did not do that in a timely manner with Patterson, Taveras, or Stubbs, under the umbrella of reasoning that it was early and that they would hit.

It somewhat changes the complexion and perception if those type of production is not leading off.


I think he'll be fine

He could be, he might have been already, hitting down in the order. But he isn't batting down in the order.

Spring~Fields
05-02-2010, 06:51 PM
Very true 98.5% of RedsZone saw what was comming with Willy Taveras, the sad thing is Walt and Dusty didn't.

3rd time a charm? :all_cohol

They've basically done the same thing again.

Ghosts of 1990
05-02-2010, 08:03 PM
Phillips leads off. Rolen, then votto then Bruce then cabrera. From there toy as you'd like. Phillips needs to lead off

TheNext44
05-02-2010, 08:15 PM
Phillips leads off. Rolen, then votto then Bruce then cabrera. From there toy as you'd like. Phillips needs to lead off

I think you have illuminated the real issue. This team has no true leadoff hitter.

Phillips might be the best bet, but that is sad if true.

RedsManRick
05-02-2010, 08:17 PM
Rick,
How long would you have had any of the three leading off for a team made up like Cincinnati, if you would have had them leading off at all?

Firstly, neither Patterson nor Taveras would be on my team. And if they were on my team, they'd primarily have been defensive replacements and pinch runners. When they did bat, they would have bat low in the order. Patterson 7th or 8th, Taveras 9th. Stubbs would be batting 7th or 8th. He's struggled mightily, but I'm not going to render on a judgement until he's had another few hundred PA. It's not like we have other options beating down our door and he does have potential.

I would caution us to not lump Taveras with Patterson and Stubbs. Taveras is Juan Pierre with only good contact rates instead of elite ones. Patterson and Stubbs are more similar, in that they both have power potential, but are hampered in their ability to use it due low contact rates resulting from a long swing. The difference between the two is that Stubbs has better discipline than Patterson, which gives him a better shot of sticking.

However, unless and until Stubbs starts making more contact on balls in the zone, he's got no shot. His contact rate is 4th lowest in baseball. While you can get away with low contact rates if you have great plate discipline and prodigious power, his discipline is merely good and he's not found a way to consistently hit for power. The 3 guys below him: Reynolds, Blanks and Upton (Justin). The 3 above him Kemp, Dunn and Hamilton.

Bottom line, I don't think the Reds have a better CF option right now than Stubbs (unless you count Bruce, which the Reds don't), so he should be playing every day. But it's not a good idea to continue batting him leadoff everyday. Speed is more valuable lower in the lineup (where bases are harder to advance and less costly to lose) and we should be giving more PA to our best hitters. I'd be playing Hanigan 4 days a week and leading him off when he plays. When Hernandez plays, push Phillips to leadoff, Rolen to 2nd.

Phhhl
05-02-2010, 10:01 PM
Everyone thought Justin Upton broke out last year, but he is scuffling so far this year too. Joey Votto isn't raking like the entire planet predicted either, by the way. It is extremely early to give up on a player with Drew's explosive skill set, not to mention one whose success is so important to the success of this team this year. It is painfully obvious that he has a tough time with anything crooked, so I agree that it is perfectly reasonable to drop him lower in the order at least until he puts it together, where he might see more fastballs. But, I am pretty happy with what Dusty has done on this last road trip by shaking up the lineup. Not only does putting Phillips in the 2 hole in front of a guy who either steals second or doesn't get on base at all neutralize Brandon's propensity to hit into double plays, it provides a power threat at the top of the order to try and force pitchers to give Stubbs more fastballs. Although I would like to see Stubbs dropped in the order and take some of the pressure off his shoulders until he proves himself, at least it shows that Dusty is thinking about how lineup construction may be effecting production. THAT is major progress for those of you in the cf hits first "dude", shortstop hits second camp.

Drew Stubbs is critical to the success of this team. He provides exceptional defense for a team that is starving for it, and speed and power. Aside from Votto and Bruce, he is clearly the most important position player on this team. Dusty needs to do whatever it takes to leverage Drew Stubbs to succeed, and be as patient as it takes to get that done. We need to be smart in how he is treated. Otherwise, the good pitching we are bound to get as the season progresses will be wasted.

Some flexibility is fine, but giving up on Drew Stubbs now would be in direct alignment with giving up on the season.

Sea Ray
05-02-2010, 10:09 PM
Oh great another Stubbs thread...

cincrazy
05-02-2010, 10:19 PM
The talent stream into this organization has improved immensely the past few years, but outside of Bruce, there are no clear cut options in the future in regards to the outfield. The best bet in center and left may be for the Reds to go outside of the organization to fill those holes, because I don't think Dickerson or Stubbs is the answer, and leftfield isn't much different (and when I say go outside of the organization, I'm not talking about taking a flier on the Jonny Gomes' of the world, I'm talking about legitimate talent).

cincrazy
05-02-2010, 10:22 PM
Everyone thought Justin Upton broke out last year, but he is scuffling so far this year too. Joey Votto isn't raking like the entire planet predicted either, by the way. It is extremely early to give up on a player with Drew's explosive skill set, not to mention one whose success is so important to the success of this team this year. It is painfully obvious that he has a tough time with anything crooked, so I agree that it is perfectly reasonable to drop him lower in the order at least until he puts it together, where he might see more fastballs. But, I am pretty happy with what Dusty has done on this last road trip by shaking up the lineup. Not only does putting Phillips in the 2 hole in front of a guy who either steals second or doesn't get on base at all neutralize Brandon's propensity to hit into double plays, it provides a power threat at the top of the order to try and force pitchers to give Stubbs more fastballs. Although I would like to see Stubbs dropped in the order and take some of the pressure off his shoulders until he proves himself, at least it shows that Dusty is thinking about how lineup construction may be effecting production. THAT is major progress for those of you in the cf hits first "dude", shortstop hits second camp.

Drew Stubbs is critical to the success of this team. He provides exceptional defense for a team that is starving for it, and speed and power. Aside from Votto and Bruce, he is clearly the most important position player on this team. Dusty needs to do whatever it takes to leverage Drew Stubbs to succeed, and be as patient as it takes to get that done. We need to be smart in how he is treated. Otherwise, the good pitching we are bound to get as the season progresses will be wasted.

Some flexibility is fine, but giving up on Drew Stubbs now would be in direct alignment with giving up on the season.

With all due respect, that's why this team is going to struggle this season. This guy has done nothing while in this organization to prove that he can be a competent centerfielder, yet we're banking on him to have a succesful season. He may have an explosive skills package, but so did Ruben Rivera, and you couldn't find a more terrible ballplayer than him.

I'm not saying that Stubbs is a complete bust, not yet anyways. But I am saying he wasn't that good of a player in the minors, so why on earth would it be any different in the majors?

Spring~Fields
05-02-2010, 10:24 PM
Firstly, neither Patterson nor Taveras would be on my team.

I never thought of that to begin the questions, I should have known that. I mean I am sure that those two (Patterson/Taveras) came with red flags and bells going off attached to themselves before ever getting to Cincinnati.



And if they were on my team, they'd primarily have been defensive replacements and pinch runners. When they did bat, they would have bat low in the order. Patterson 7th or 8th, Taveras 9th. Stubbs would be batting 7th or 8th. He's struggled mightily, but I'm not going to render on a judgement until he's had another few hundred PA. It's not like we have other options beating down our door and he does have potential.

That's right, he does have to have a lot more PA/AB to even begin to see what he really might be. I believe in Stubbs. We know he is an outstanding CF, and I am pretty sure that most of us think that he is better than the two predecessors in center which helps the pitching, to me that is a big deal.



I would caution us to not lump Taveras with Patterson and Stubbs. Taveras is Juan Pierre with only good contact rates instead of elite ones. Patterson and Stubbs are more similar, in that they both have power potential, but are hampered in their ability to use it due low contact rates resulting from a long swing. The difference between the two is that Stubbs has better discipline than Patterson, which gives him a better shot of sticking.

However, unless and until Stubbs starts making more contact on balls in the zone, he's got no shot. His contact rate is 4th lowest in baseball. While you can get away with low contact rates if you have great plate discipline and prodigious power, his discipline is merely good and he's not found a way to consistently hit for power. The 3 guys below him: Reynolds, Blanks and Upton (Justin). The 3 above him Kemp, Dunn and Hamilton.

I think that Stubbs should have been allowed to get acclimated, to get some time and experience against the pitchers that he faces at this level, and down in the order where there is less pressure, and a bit less lime light or demands on him to approach the leadoff a bit differently than he might have to down below. Not to mention giving time for his confidence to grow vs maybe hurting it in the leadoff. Of course I can't support that his swing or contact rates would improve down below, but I would really like to see what he can do with more time and adjusting down there. Of course by suggesting that it says that I believe that he will do better and grow from there.



Bottom line, I don't think the Reds have a better CF option right now than Stubbs (unless you count Bruce, which the Reds don't), so he should be playing every day. But it's not a good idea to continue batting him leadoff everyday. Speed is more valuable lower in the lineup (where bases are harder to advance and less costly to lose) and we should be giving more PA to our best hitters. I'd be playing Hanigan 4 days a week and leading him off when he plays. When Hernandez plays, push Phillips to leadoff, Rolen to 2nd.

Stubbs is it. I just think that they could utilize his time to adjust to how they are pitching him at this level better down in the order.

I think that I understand why you say Hanigan and Rolen.

Me with the way the team is short as made up, unless Votto really rejected strongly, I would have moved him to left for days when Hanigan is catching and played Hernandez at first, then loaded the OBP SLG to get the most PA/AB and worked the splits some depending on the left or right. Phillips I think will adjust and adapt hitting either one or two. If he can, he will.

I like the idea of switching the catchers back and forth to keep them fresher in the catching duties. I want run support for the pitching too. I don't want them thinking they have to be perfect, because that isn't going to happen.

Nothing absolute or in stone, all with adapting and adjusting in mind as it comes.

mth123
05-02-2010, 10:32 PM
Drew Stubbs is like the Thanksgiving meal that was removed from the oven before it was finished cooking. If it was left to cook a while longer it may have been something memorable, but by taking it out too soon its making everyone sick. Same can be said of Homer Bailey and to a lesser extent Jay Bruce. Many are calling for the team to make the same mistake with Aroldis Chapman. I think when Stubbs is in his late 20's he'll be a pretty good major league CF, but if he did find some power stroke about when he hit the majors last year, he really could have used a season in AAA to develop consistency with it and to avoid the pitfals of falling into a long swing.

Guy had a .713 OPS at AAA for a reason. Another year was called for so I'm not surprised, but it didn't play out that way. On the heels of his big league debut he had a good spring, he knocked down the door and I think he should get another month at this point.

Screwball
05-02-2010, 10:47 PM
As I've said a dozen times, when he doesn't punish pitchers with power, they are going to come at him (as they have done.) The plate discipline he showed in the minors really doesn't mean much if he doesn't have the power to scare major league pitchers away.


Despite not showing any power this season (.257 SLG, 0.81 IsoP) and pitchers coming at him, Stubbs still has an excellent .111 IsoD (Votto, for example, has an IsoD of .122 in '10), so clearly the walks haven't dried up. It's not really a matter of his plate discipline not working at ML level, but rather it's a contact issue he's struggling with. Like RMR said, it's an absolute necessity for him to make more contact in order to be productive and ultimately, sustain a ML career.

Spring~Fields
05-02-2010, 10:50 PM
Drew Stubbs is like the Thanksgiving meal that was removed from the oven before it was finished cooking. If it was left to cook a while longer it may have been something memorable, but by taking it out too soon its making everyone sick. Same can be said of Homer Bailey and to a lesser extent Jay Bruce. Many are calling for the team to make the same mistake with Aroldis Chapman. I think when Stubbs is in his late 20's he'll be a pretty good major league CF, but if he did find some power stroke about when he hit the majors last year, he really could have used a season in AAA to develop consistency with it and to avoid the pitfals of falling into a long swing.

Guy had a .713 OPS at AAA for a reason. Another year was called for so I'm not surprised, but it didn't play out that way. On the heels of his big league debut he had a good spring, he knocked down the door and I think he should get another month at this point.

That’s a good way to put it.

Wasn’t Stubbs kind of moved around and up in the minors in odd manner too? I have it in my head that he was not given the time at any level that he might have needed. Am I wrong about that?

I think that I learned my lesson from the time of wanting Bailey and Bruce pushed up here. I am very willing to wait on Chapman to make sure that he gets the right amount of seasoning and experience for him before exposing him to the dog eat dog world of major league baseball.

I would give Stubbs the entire year in center field for this Reds team. With a reasonable amount of days off here and there. I would not quit on him, and I would tell him so, even if he does struggle. But, he would not be leading off, because the Reds are OBP challenged, and even more so against right handed pitching, or at least they were coming into the season. The Reds could live with an outstanding centerfielder supporting the pitching staff on defense, while he gets better with the bat down in the order. It has been done before with teams. Of course I think that they could live with a Cabrera/Janish platoon too, which seems to go against the grain of the consensus choice.

Doesn’t Stubbs have more to think about when leading off? Maybe too much to think about. Vs down in the order where making good contact on better pitch recognition might be his priority?

If it wasn’t for speed, or the tradition of leading CF off, wouldn’t Stubbs normally be batting down in the order in his first full year of PA/AB unless he was an exceptional phenom type?

2008 23 3 Teams 3 Lgs A+-AA-AAA
548 PA .788
2008 23 Sarasota FLOR A+
358 PA .772
2008 23 Chattanooga SOUL AA
106 PA .802
2008 23 Louisville IL AAA
84 PA .834

2009 24 Louisville IL AAA
472 PA .713

Benihana
05-02-2010, 11:04 PM
While I know every player is unique in the time they need to develop, 1800 minor league plate appearances is hardly rushing a guy who was a Top 10 pick out of a big time college program.

I'm not sure that rushing Drew Stubbs was the problem. I think the fact that is power never really developed at any level (including the combined 800 ABs he had in A ball as a 22 and 23 year old, and 3 HRs in over 450 plate appearances in AAA as a 24 year old) is a much bigger concern. With that kind of power -or lack thereof- you better be a damn good contact hitter if you are going to stick in a major league lineup, and we all know what kind of contact hitter he has been.

Caveat Emperor
05-03-2010, 12:40 AM
Despite not showing any power this season (.257 SLG, 0.81 IsoP) and pitchers coming at him, Stubbs still has an excellent .111 IsoD (Votto, for example, has an IsoD of .122 in '10), so clearly the walks haven't dried up. It's not really a matter of his plate discipline not working at ML level, but rather it's a contact issue he's struggling with. Like RMR said, it's an absolute necessity for him to make more contact in order to be productive and ultimately, sustain a ML career.

I wouldn't be adverse to Stubbs attempting to bunt a little more frequently. Anything to get him on base, because his out-machine routine isn't doing the offense any favors.

Unfortunately, unless Stubbs can get his BA up to around .250-.260, the team will probably have to go out and address the CF problem in FA this offseasn.

mth123
05-03-2010, 06:14 AM
While I know every player is unique in the time they need to develop, 1800 minor league plate appearances is hardly rushing a guy who was a Top 10 pick out of a big time college program.

I'm not sure that rushing Drew Stubbs was the problem. I think the fact that is power never really developed at any level (including the combined 800 ABs he had in A ball as a 22 and 23 year old, and 3 HRs in over 450 plate appearances in AAA as a 24 year old) is a much bigger concern. With that kind of power -or lack thereof- you better be a damn good contact hitter if you are going to stick in a major league lineup, and we all know what kind of contact hitter he has been.

Promoting a player to the majors after a .713 OPS in AAA is rushing - especially when he is still working on his swing. I don't care how many PAs he got in Billings and Dayton to prop up his stats (he was a big time college guy after all). If I understand it, Stubbs was in the process of changing his swing when recalled and showed power with the revamped swing in the big leagues. Even with the newfound pop, his OPS was below .800 in his major league '09 season. He needed to use that swing (if that is the one he sticks with) in AAA over a period of time to see if its going to work for him and if he can be consistent with it. The contact issues that RMR rightly points to, may be even worse with the new swing and we're just now getting enough data to really see it.

IMO, Stubbs should have taken the Dickerson path where he repeated AAA until he got it right, but we're past that now and the team should stick with this path for a while longer to see what happens. Its possible that what we saw in 2009 was simply a hot streak which many of us have pointed out, but its also possible that what we're seeing now is just a slump. Given the alternatives, I'd stick with him for a while and find out once and for all.

Falls City Beer
05-03-2010, 08:41 AM
Stubbs is pretty darn old, as well. We could very well be seeing what he already is.

Though I'm sure he'll weave his magic against AAAA pitching in September, when there's nothing at all to lose and 70% of the teams have no shot at the postseason.

Benihana
05-03-2010, 09:03 AM
Promoting a player to the majors after a .713 OPS in AAA is rushing - especially when he is still working on his swing. I don't care how many PAs he got in Billings and Dayton to prop up his stats (he was a big time college guy after all). If I understand it, Stubbs was in the process of changing his swing when recalled and showed power with the revamped swing in the big leagues. Even with the newfound pop, his OPS was below .800 in his major league '09 season. He needed to use that swing (if that is the one he sticks with) in AAA over a period of time to see if its going to work for him and if he can be consistent with it. The contact issues that RMR rightly points to, may be even worse with the new swing and we're just now getting enough data to really see it.

IMO, Stubbs should have taken the Dickerson path where he repeated AAA until he got it right, but we're past that now and the team should stick with this path for a while longer to see what happens. Its possible that what we saw in 2009 was simply a hot streak which many of us have pointed out, but its also possible that what we're seeing now is just a slump. Given the alternatives, I'd stick with him for a while and find out once and for all.

You are ignoring the issue of why he had to change his swing in the first place- it wasn't working. What if a 32 year old career minor leaguer wanted to change his swing because his previous swing hadn't been working for the past 10 years? Should we give him an extra year to change and perfect it before calling him up? Even if he had already had thousands of minor league plate appearances, and there was a need on the big club?

I just don't buy it with Stubbs. He had a .713 OPS in >450 PAs in AAA, but that was after underwhelming and unsustained performances at other levels. The guy turns 26 years old this year, and he wasn't brought up incredibly prematurely like Homer Bailey. Plus, conventional wisdom says to challenge hitters while coddling pitchers. Bailey was a pitcher coming out of high school. Stubbs is a bat coming from a Top 10 college program. Big difference.

Jay Bruce, who you say was "barely rushed" was in the majors by age 21. Drew Stubbs wasn't even drafted yet at age 21, and didn't sniff the bigs until just before his 24th birthday. You will be hard pressed to find anyone in the league who says that is rushing a prospect, especially for a Top 10 pick out of UT.

edabbs44
05-03-2010, 09:09 AM
Rushing guys is usually just an excuse. Rushing a guy who played at a big time college program and spent multiple years in the minors is, at best, a reach. The knock on Stubbs coming out of college was that he might not hit in the majors. That's why the selection was questionable at the time.

membengal
05-03-2010, 09:17 AM
I can't be the only one who has been within an inch of starting a new thread entitled


Drew Stubbs: Aunt

can I?

klw
05-03-2010, 09:55 AM
I think we have our Drew Stubbs nickname. If Jay Bruce is the Boss, Drew Stubbs is


"Uncle"

cincrazy
05-03-2010, 02:51 PM
Promoting a player to the majors after a .713 OPS in AAA is rushing - especially when he is still working on his swing. I don't care how many PAs he got in Billings and Dayton to prop up his stats (he was a big time college guy after all). If I understand it, Stubbs was in the process of changing his swing when recalled and showed power with the revamped swing in the big leagues. Even with the newfound pop, his OPS was below .800 in his major league '09 season. He needed to use that swing (if that is the one he sticks with) in AAA over a period of time to see if its going to work for him and if he can be consistent with it. The contact issues that RMR rightly points to, may be even worse with the new swing and we're just now getting enough data to really see it.

IMO, Stubbs should have taken the Dickerson path where he repeated AAA until he got it right, but we're past that now and the team should stick with this path for a while longer to see what happens. Its possible that what we saw in 2009 was simply a hot streak which many of us have pointed out, but its also possible that what we're seeing now is just a slump. Given the alternatives, I'd stick with him for a while and find out once and for all.

But what if he never DID get it right? There's no guarantee that more time in the minors would have resulted in better performance. I don't think the Reds have mishandled Drew Stubbs. I just think he is what he is, which is a below average baseball player. The speed and the power are a tease, because while it's there, I don't think he's ever going to be able to put it consistently together as a major league player.

mth123
05-03-2010, 09:07 PM
But what if he never DID get it right? There's no guarantee that more time in the minors would have resulted in better performance. I don't think the Reds have mishandled Drew Stubbs. I just think he is what he is, which is a below average baseball player. The speed and the power are a tease, because while it's there, I don't think he's ever going to be able to put it consistently together as a major league player.

So what's the harm in leaving him in the minors then? Leave him down and if he never gets it he fades away. I'm sleptical of guys who OPS so little in AAA ever being much in the majors, but the Reds seem to think there is a reason to give him a job, and if that is the case, I don't think April is enough time to change that. Give him another month. If he hits he stays. If not, back to AAA. Its not that hard.

As I've said since last year when most were penciling Stubbs in as a strenghth that he needs to hit. In Spring he did and earned a look. I just don't think its time to change yet (even though I'm skeptical of Stubbs OPSing more than .675 or so). But the Reds want him to take charge, so they need to give him enough rope to see if these are just streaks or slumps and who the real guy is. I'm guessing its the .715 AAA OPS guy, but lets keep running him out there for now. There aren't any alternatives.

fearofpopvol1
05-03-2010, 09:45 PM
Dude hit a bomb his first plate appearence. 436 feet tonight. He's having a good night tonight at the plate.

RedsManRick
05-03-2010, 10:22 PM
Dude hit a bomb his first plate appearence. 436 feet tonight. He's having a good night tonight at the plate.

If anybody needed proof that he does have power, that should do it. He's now got 10 HR is less than a half season's worth of at bats. He still needs to make a lot more contact, but power is not the issue.

Big Klu
05-03-2010, 10:28 PM
But what if he never DID get it right? There's no guarantee that more time in the minors would have resulted in better performance. I don't think the Reds have mishandled Drew Stubbs. I just think he is what he is, which is a below average baseball player. The speed and the power are a tease, because while it's there, I don't think he's ever going to be able to put it consistently together as a major league player.

So you are saying he is Rolando Roomes?

Benihana
05-03-2010, 10:45 PM
So you are saying he is Rolando Roomes?

Good call. I have fond memories of Rolando Roomes hitting a pair of game winning HRs back during the 1989 season. Too bad almost every one of his other plate appearances I remember resulted in a strikeout.

Guacarock
05-03-2010, 10:55 PM
There was something in the air that night
The stars were bright, Rolando
They were shining there for you and me
For liberty, Rolando
Though we never thought that we could lose
There's no regret
If I had to do the same again
I would, my friend, Rolando
Yes, if I had to do the same again
I would, my friend, Rolando...

Reds1
05-03-2010, 11:12 PM
Needed him tonight! I"m ok with him in the line up because we have no one else, but he doesn't need to be lead off now.

Homer Bailey
05-15-2010, 03:10 PM
Drew is up to .627 on the year, and considering the start he had, I think that's pretty decent. Numbers are certainly trending upward.

In a SSS from the 7 hole (33 AB's) he's hitting .333/.389/.545/.934. I hope he continues to thrive from the 7 hole.

mth123
05-15-2010, 03:40 PM
Drew is up to .627 on the year, and considering the start he had, I think that's pretty decent. Numbers are certainly trending upward.

In a SSS from the 7 hole (33 AB's) he's hitting .333/.389/.545/.934. I hope he continues to thrive from the 7 hole.

Not sure if the 7 hole is the reason (could be that it helped his head), the day off when Heisey played to watch tape and see the uppercut in the swing or if he's just Streaky, but I think Stubbs may be a positive offensive guy for a little while.

The trick will be to see if it lasts past Memorial Day.

RedsManRick
05-15-2010, 04:13 PM
I'm just glad he's getting consistent PA. All players need to adjust when they come up to the majors. I don't know if he'll adjust enough to stick, but with his glove and speed, he should get every opportunity to do so.

Benihana
05-15-2010, 04:34 PM
Drew is up to .627 on the year, and considering the start he had, I think that's pretty decent. Numbers are certainly trending upward.

In a SSS from the 7 hole (33 AB's) he's hitting .333/.389/.545/.934. I hope he continues to thrive from the 7 hole.

Good to see and I hope it continues. I also hope that he can produce like this one day out of the leadoff spot. By my count, Reds now have four "7 hole" hitters between Stubbs, Cabrera, Hernanigan, and whoever is playing LF.

mth123
05-15-2010, 04:52 PM
Good to see and I hope it continues. I also hope that he can produce like this one day out of the leadoff spot. By my count, Reds now have four "7 hole" hitters between Stubbs, Cabrera, Hernanigan, and whoever is playing LF.

Add Phillips vs. RHP.

fearofpopvol1
05-16-2010, 12:17 AM
He has been looking better and better as of late at the plate.

jmcclain19
05-16-2010, 12:20 AM
I'm just glad he's getting consistent PA. All players need to adjust when they come up to the majors. I don't know if he'll adjust enough to stick, but with his glove and speed, he should get every opportunity to do so.

Absolutely, given his age, his green-ness, speed and glove, I'm hoping the Reds give Stubbs a ton of rope.

Because when he's on he gives the Reds a dimension they haven't had a long, long time.

Caveat Emperor
05-16-2010, 01:46 AM
Drew is up to .627 on the year, and considering the start he had, I think that's pretty decent. Numbers are certainly trending upward.

In a SSS from the 7 hole (33 AB's) he's hitting .333/.389/.545/.934. I hope he continues to thrive from the 7 hole.

With his ability to take a walk, Stubbs only needs to hit around .240-.250 to be an extremely productive player (accounting for defensive value).

If he keeps making quality PAs, the numbers will take care of themselves.

Degenerate39
05-16-2010, 08:42 AM
Becoming my favorite uncle

lollipopcurve
05-16-2010, 09:52 AM
I'm just glad he's getting consistent PA. All players need to adjust when they come up to the majors. I don't know if he'll adjust enough to stick, but with his glove and speed, he should get every opportunity to do so.

Yep. Been saying it all along. 500-600 ABs this year, hitting lower in the order if he struggles at the top. Development continues at the major league level for almost every player.

VR
05-16-2010, 11:16 AM
I wonder what his time from 1st to 3rd was. Looked like he was standing on
3rd when that throw reached home.

_Sir_Charles_
05-16-2010, 11:28 AM
I wonder what his time from 1st to 3rd was. Looked like he was standing on
3rd when that throw reached home.

I was thinking the same thing. But I loved Frank Robinson being in the booth on that one. Lark said something like 'were you THAT fast?'...Robby..."faster". :O) When they showed that wide screen shot it was pretty impressive as to how quickly he was making up ground on the other runners. Kid's got some fantastic wheels.

TRF
05-16-2010, 07:29 PM
With his ability to take a walk, Stubbs only needs to hit around .240-.250 to be an extremely productive player (accounting for defensive value).

If he keeps making quality PAs, the numbers will take care of themselves.

Simplistic view IMO.

When he doesn't hit for power, and by power I mean .400+ slg he won't draw the walks. As a leadoff hitter he was fighting his instincts with his idea of what a leadoff hitter should be. IMO he was thinking it too much. lower in the order his idea is drive in runs, and his natural instincts take over. His OBP is still pretty bad, but climbing as pitchers are respecting his speed/power combo more.

Look at his numbers throughout his career. He's always been better lower in the order. Not a little better, but light years better.

OnBaseMachine
05-16-2010, 07:31 PM
Stubbs is exciting to watch in person. He had a great weekend against the Cardinals. Watching him run around the bases on that 2-run triple last night was awesome. He also covers an unbelievable amount of ground in center field. I'm not sure there's a better defensive center fielder in the game right now. Maybe Franklin Gutierrez but that's about it.

mth123
05-16-2010, 07:37 PM
Simplistic view IMO.

When he doesn't hit for power, and by power I mean .400+ slg he won't draw the walks. As a leadoff hitter he was fighting his instincts with his idea of what a leadoff hitter should be. IMO he was thinking it too much. lower in the order his idea is drive in runs, and his natural instincts take over. His OBP is still pretty bad, but climbing as pitchers are respecting his speed/power combo more.

Look at his numbers throughout his career. He's always been better lower in the order. Not a little better, but light years better.

I think CE is right in that Stubbs may be able to lead-off without falling into the trap you suggest at some point. Its called growing up. Doing it on a major league stage shows a lot of warts. Its been behind the growing pains of guys like Cueto and Bailey, Jay Bruce' fly happy 2009 and other such issues.

Most of the time guys grow up in the minors, but a shortage of talent, and money to get any, has caused the Reds to bring guys up before they are fully mature. It happens at differrent times for different guys. Dickerson and Hanigan were in their late 20's. Mike Leake seemingly was born that way. I think Stubbs will get there and if he'd been allowed to finish cooking in AAA it would have probably saved us all a lot of heartache.

klw
05-16-2010, 08:05 PM
How did I miss that the Nats DFA's Willy T?

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/05/nationals-designate-willy-taveras-for-assignment.html

REDblooded
05-16-2010, 08:06 PM
Stubbs is exciting to watch in person. He had a great weekend against the Cardinals. Watching him run around the bases on that 2-run triple last night was awesome. He also covers an unbelievable amount of ground in center field. I'm not sure there's a better defensive center fielder in the game right now. Maybe Franklin Gutierrez but that's about it.

I had him right at 11.210 seconds from contact to 3b...

That's 90 yards in 11.2... fast.

klw
05-16-2010, 08:22 PM
I had him right at 11.210 seconds from contact to 3b...

That's 90 yards in 11.2... fast.

He's going a lot further than 90 yards as he does not cut the bases at right angles.

dougdirt
05-16-2010, 08:23 PM
I had him right at 11.210 seconds from contact to 3b...

That's 90 yards in 11.2... fast.

Much more than 90 yards.... He wasn't running in a straight line.

SirFelixCat
05-16-2010, 08:42 PM
While I am a Stubbs fan and really hope that he does well, I'm certainly not an apologist for him either.

With that said, seeing as this is his first season in the majors that started in April, is it possible that he's just a slow starter? I mean, a lot of good and great players have been known to start out the season really slowly and get consistently better as the season progresses. Just a thought....

TRF
05-17-2010, 12:39 PM
While I am a Stubbs fan and really hope that he does well, I'm certainly not an apologist for him either.

With that said, seeing as this is his first season in the majors that started in April, is it possible that he's just a slow starter? I mean, a lot of good and great players have been known to start out the season really slowly and get consistently better as the season progresses. Just a thought....

I really think he just doesn't have the mindset for leadoff. Some guys just can't do it, like some pitchers can't be closers. Something about the position I guess.

One thing I have said about Stubbs is if you have power and don't use it, you don't have power. He's starting to use it. I think if the Reds as an organization hadn't been so enamored with his speed/defense, they might have developed him better. Had he taken another year in the minors, as a middle of the order hitter, there would be lees angst about him. Not completely gone mind you, but less.

Put it this way, If Stubbs can consistently hit for the power his frame suggests, his ceiling could be as high as Jay Bruce when you factor in the defense. But he has to get a power mindset for that to happen. So far, batting 7th, he does.


Can it continue? His minor league numbers clearly show a dominance lower in the order. Do the Reds have the sense to leave him there? Or will they once again look past the human element, see his speed and say "Leadoff Hitter".

Homer Bailey
05-25-2010, 11:57 AM
I know I'm cheating by bumping this only after he has a good game, but Stubbs is now at .218/.305/.381/.686. Obviously not earth shattering, but much better than a month ago.

Still too early for this to mean anything, but he's hitting .333/.393/.608/1.001 out of the 7 spot in the lineup in 51 AB's. He's currently on pace for a 20/40 season, and quietly has more home runs than Jay Bruce. I am loving the Stubbs we are seeing from the bottom of the lineup, and continue to think that his offensive success is a huge key to this team.

Captain Hook
05-25-2010, 01:34 PM
I know I'm cheating by bumping this only after he has a good game, but Stubbs is now at .218/.305/.381/.686. Obviously not earth shattering, but much better than a month ago.

Still too early for this to mean anything, but he's hitting .333/.393/.608/1.001 out of the 7 spot in the lineup in 51 AB's. He's currently on pace for a 20/40 season, and quietly has more home runs than Jay Bruce. I am loving the Stubbs we are seeing from the bottom of the lineup, and continue to think that his offensive success is a huge key to this team.

With less then 400 big league PA Drew has shown that he can get the job done.So far in his short big league career he has gone on a number of pretty impressive hot streaks that would indicate to me that he can more then handle his own at the plate.He may need to do a better job of making adjustments when teams start pitching him a certain way so he can avoid prolonged cold streaks but other then that it appears to me that the Reds have a very solid Center Fielder for many years to come.

TRF
05-25-2010, 01:47 PM
With less then 400 big league PA Drew has shown that he can get the job done.So far in his short big league career he has gone on a number of pretty impressive hot streaks that would indicate to me that he can more then handle his own at the plate.He may need to do a better job of making adjustments when teams start pitching him a certain way so he can avoid prolonged cold streaks but other then that it appears to me that the Reds have a very solid Center Fielder for many years to come.

He's got a sub .700 OPS in just under 2 months this year. I'd say he hasn't proven a thing at the plate. The numbers with him batting 7th are encouraging, but I wouldn't bat him leadoff. Add in that whenever he's been at a level for an extended period of time, the league has figured him out pretty quick. High A, AA, AAA, and the majors.

Right now Cabrera has this line as the leadoff hitter: .333 .380 .409 .789 If he can keep that up, and Stubbs can post an .800ish OPS batting 7th, then his continued presence in a Reds uniform won't irk me so much.

But offensively, he hasn't proven jack. yet.

bucksfan2
05-25-2010, 01:49 PM
He's got a sub .700 OPS in just under 2 months this year. I'd say he hasn't proven a thing at the plate. The numbers with him batting 7th are encouraging, but I wouldn't bat him leadoff. Add in that whenever he's been at a level for an extended period of time, the league has figured him out pretty quick. High A, AA, AAA, and the majors.

Right now Cabrera has this line as the leadoff hitter: .333 .380 .409 .789 If he can keep that up, and Stubbs can post an .800ish OPS batting 7th, then his continued presence in a Reds uniform won't irk me so much.

But offensively, he hasn't proven jack. yet.

Shocking!

TRF
05-25-2010, 01:50 PM
Shocking!

But, and I have said this a few times, If hitting 7th is his magic comfort zone, AND he embraces his role as a power hitter, He's got as much overall upside as Jay Bruce.

I just think offensively he fights his instincts too much.

Captain Hook
05-25-2010, 02:31 PM
He's got a sub .700 OPS in just under 2 months this year. I'd say he hasn't proven a thing at the plate. The numbers with him batting 7th are encouraging, but I wouldn't bat him leadoff. Add in that whenever he's been at a level for an extended period of time, the league has figured him out pretty quick. High A, AA, AAA, and the majors.

Right now Cabrera has this line as the leadoff hitter: .333 .380 .409 .789 If he can keep that up, and Stubbs can post an .800ish OPS batting 7th, then his continued presence in a Reds uniform won't irk me so much.

But offensively, he hasn't proven jack. yet.

I'd say that he has at least proven that he is better then the last two center fielders the Reds have had.Not saying much I know but they still have jobs and at the time the Reds went out of their way to sign them.I think that he has also shown that he can be a big contribute to the offense in streaks.Not ideal but given his limited time and potential improvements I'd say that's plenty acceptable given how good his defense is.I agree that the Reds can't afford to put him in the leadoff spot but like you pointed out, that shouldn't be a problem and he's doing fine where he's at right now.

I know they're not much alike and have a completely different approach but Drew's ability to contribute reminds me of what Edwin Encarnacion gave the team.Some power along with hot streaks that made you think he could be great followed by week long and sometimes month long slumps.Edwins defense just made that impossible to tolerate.

nate
05-25-2010, 02:39 PM
I'd say that he has at least proven that he is better then the last two center fielders the Reds have had.Not saying much I know but they still have jobs and at the time the Reds went out of their way to sign them.I think that he has also shown that he can be a big contribute to the offense in streaks.Not ideal but given his limited time and potential improvements I'd say that's plenty acceptable given how good his defense is.I agree that the Reds can't afford to put him in the leadoff spot but like you pointed out, that shouldn't be a problem and he's doing fine where he's at right now.

I know they're not much alike and have a completely different approach but Drew's ability to contribute reminds me of what Edwin Encarnacion gave the team.Some power along with hot streaks that made you think he could be great followed by week long and sometimes month long slumps.Edwins defense just made that impossible to tolerate.

I think Taveras was DFA the other day. I'm not sure if CP is still with the Orioles.

TRF
05-25-2010, 02:44 PM
I'd say he's actually playing against regular 25 man rosters and regular pitching staffs. If his OPS is above .730 by the end of june, I'll be thrilled. If he can push it past .800 for the year, I'll never make a negative comment about Drew Stubbs again. ever.

Like I said, I think in the leadoff role, he fights his instincts too much. I also think if he continues to hit and for some reason Cabrera can no longer do the job, Dusty will go to him as the leadoff hitter, which IMO is a very bad idea.

But I am enjoying the production he's providing lower in the order. grip it and rip it.

TRF
05-25-2010, 02:45 PM
I think Taveras was DFA the other day. I'm not sure if CP is still with the Orioles.

Patterson is with this line in 49 AB's: .286 .375 .469 .844

Edit: great googily moogily. He's the O's starting LF AND leadoff hitter!

westofyou
05-25-2010, 02:52 PM
I think Taveras was DFA the other day. I'm not sure if CP is still with the Orioles.

CP is there

Captain Hook
05-25-2010, 03:11 PM
Patterson is with this line in 49 AB's: .286 .375 .469 .844

Edit: great googily moogily. He's the O's starting LF AND leadoff hitter!

:shocked:

I thought the O's had a bunch of young talented outfielders.Hard to believe that a castoff like CP could find a everyday job there.

Razor Shines
05-25-2010, 03:25 PM
He's got a sub .700 OPS in just under 2 months this year. I'd say he hasn't proven a thing at the plate. The numbers with him batting 7th are encouraging, but I wouldn't bat him leadoff. Add in that whenever he's been at a level for an extended period of time, the league has figured him out pretty quick. High A, AA, AAA, and the majors.

Right now Cabrera has this line as the leadoff hitter: .333 .380 .409 .789 If he can keep that up, and Stubbs can post an .800ish OPS batting 7th, then his continued presence in a Reds uniform won't irk me so much.

But offensively, he hasn't proven jack. yet.

You think that it's gonna take an .800 to make him worth having? I think he's valuable at around .730 and above.

As for Cabrera, he has been great in the lead off spot this year. But I think we all know that his batting average is going to drop 50-60 pts from .333 and his OBP along with it. I really expect Stubbs and Cabrera to be about the same offensively by the end of the year.

Cedric
05-25-2010, 03:29 PM
You think that it's gonna take an .800 to make him worth having? I think he's valuable at around .730 and above.

As for Cabrera, he has been great in the lead off spot this year. But I think we all know that his batting average is going to drop 50-60 pts from .333 and his OBP along with it. I really expect Stubbs and Cabrera to be about the same offensively by the end of the year.

He's an all star with a .800 ops. I guess that's serviceable :)

westofyou
05-25-2010, 03:31 PM
You think that it's gonna take an .800 to make him worth having? I think he's valuable at around .730 and above.

As for Cabrera, he has been great in the lead off spot this year. But I think we all know that his batting average is going to drop 50-60 pts from .333 and his OBP along with it. I really expect Stubbs and Cabrera to be about the same offensively by the end of the year.

Of course he needs to hit .800 (MLB average .735) he's stuck in the Bronson zone.

"Fans want the player to be not what he inherently is but what they think he ought to be."

Jim Bronson

nate
05-25-2010, 03:39 PM
Of course he needs to hit .800 (MLB average .735) he's stuck in the Bronson zone.

"Fans want the player to be not what he inherently is but what they think he ought to be."

Jim Bronson

Managers too.

:cool:

Cyclone792
05-25-2010, 03:41 PM
Stubbs is at least trending in the right direction, and combined with his defense, base stealing ability and overall speed, if he can give the Reds a boost of another 30-40 points of OPS then I'll be pretty happy with his production.

I do notice he plays a few steps deeper in center than most guys (Colby Rasmus plays much more shallow, for example), and I wonder if that's something Stubbs does on his own or if the Reds coaches are instructing him on positioning per the scouting reports. Given his positioning, he's been able to get back to the wall fairly easily on balls hit over his head - I really hoped he could have caught that smash off Cordero in the 9th last night. I wonder how many hits have dropped in front of him, though. That being said, he did make a very nice sliding catch running in last night on a line drive, a type of shot where it was questionable if Stubbs could get to it as it came off the bat, but he got to it and made a nice play.

Raisor
05-25-2010, 03:46 PM
Major league average in CF is .261/.330/.412/.741

If Stubbs can do that, the Reds will be in a good position.

Caveat Emperor
05-25-2010, 03:55 PM
I do notice he plays a few steps deeper in center than most guys (Colby Rasmus plays much more shallow, for example), and I wonder if that's something Stubbs does on his own or if the Reds coaches are instructing him on positioning per the scouting reports. Given his positioning, he's been able to get back to the wall fairly easily on balls hit over his head - I really hoped he could have caught that smash off Cordero in the 9th last night. I wonder how many hits have dropped in front of him, though. That being said, he did make a very nice sliding catch running in last night on a line drive, a type of shot where it was questionable if Stubbs could get to it as it came off the bat, but he got to it and made a nice play.

I would imagine that, with Stubbs' fantastic speed, he cheats back a bit to have a play on the hard-hit balls that head towards the wall and trusts his own footspeed to make up the extra step or three on the softer / looping stuff.

Could also be defensive strategy -- concede a few more singles (and a few more balls to the 2nd basemen and SS moving backwards) to protect against the XBHs off the walls and into the gap. With the plus-defending Phillips @ 2nd, I suppose you can figure that he'll get at least some of the "can't make it in" CF balls. Additionally, if the idea is that Stubbs has extra responsibilities to his right side (given Gomes' defensive adventures), it would make sense that he pay a little further back.

Chip R
05-25-2010, 04:25 PM
I would imagine that, with Stubbs' fantastic speed, he cheats back a bit to have a play on the hard-hit balls that head towards the wall and trusts his own footspeed to make up the extra step or three on the softer / looping stuff.

Could also be defensive strategy -- concede a few more singles (and a few more balls to the 2nd basemen and SS moving backwards) to protect against the XBHs off the walls and into the gap. With the plus-defending Phillips @ 2nd, I suppose you can figure that he'll get at least some of the "can't make it in" CF balls. Additionally, if the idea is that Stubbs has extra responsibilities to his right side (given Gomes' defensive adventures), it would make sense that he pay a little further back.


Usually a very fast CFer will play shallow because he knows he can go back and catch up to the ball. Perhaps Stubbs has trouble going back on the ball. I've seen a couple - like the one last night - bounce off his glove while he was going back for the ball. Granted, they were hard hit balls and few CFers could even lay a glove on the ball but that's the only reason I can think of - besides yours- why he plays back that far.

Cedric
05-25-2010, 04:28 PM
Usually a very fast CFer will play shallow because he knows he can go back and catch up to the ball. Perhaps Stubbs has trouble going back on the ball. I've seen a couple - like the one last night - bounce off his glove while he was going back for the ball. Granted, they were hard hit balls and few CFers could even lay a glove on the ball but that's the only reason I can think of - besides yours- why he plays back that far.

Ball carries incredibly well in GABP to right center. Add in the fly ball tendencies of our staff and I think that's the answer.

medford
05-25-2010, 04:57 PM
I still think Stubbs has a chance to be a leadoff hitter for this team one day, just not right now. Of course it would help if there was anyone else on the team ready made for that role. OC is doing a great job, but as pointed out, his batting avg driven OBP won't keep up, and I don't think many of us are counting on his walks picking up.

TRF, you mention the power part and the correlation to walks, which makes some sense, and you were certainly preaching it last year. I think if he can ever learn to bunt in the mode of Brett Butler, and use his speed, he's going to be a guy that pitchers will hesitate to throw something straight at in fear that he'll lay it down the 3rd base line and boogey on down to first. W/ as much speed as Stubbs has, its a shame he's not a better bunter, and if he could find a way to produce solid obp% numbers ahead of a guy like Votto in the lineup, he could score a ton of runs each year. Not many are as equipped to score from 1st on a double or 2nd on a single as Stubbs is.

Captain Hook
05-25-2010, 05:22 PM
I would imagine that, with Stubbs' fantastic speed, he cheats back a bit to have a play on the hard-hit balls that head towards the wall and trusts his own footspeed to make up the extra step or three on the softer / looping stuff.

Could also be defensive strategy -- concede a few more singles (and a few more balls to the 2nd basemen and SS moving backwards) to protect against the XBHs off the walls and into the gap. With the plus-defending Phillips @ 2nd, I suppose you can figure that he'll get at least some of the "can't make it in" CF balls. Additionally, if the idea is that Stubbs has extra responsibilities to his right side (given Gomes' defensive adventures), it would make sense that he pay a little further back.

We'll have to see how he plays when Gomes isn't out there.This reason seems very possible to me.Cyclone have you noticed any difference when Nix or someone else that's a better defender is in LF?

Cyclone792
05-25-2010, 05:52 PM
We'll have to see how he plays when Gomes isn't out there.This reason seems very possible to me.Cyclone have you noticed any difference when Nix or someone else that's a better defender is in LF?

Unfortunately, Gomes has started all the games in left this year in which I had moon deck seats and had a chance to watch Stubbs closely. I was down the left field line last night so I didn't have a great view to see if Stubbs made any adjustments when Nix entered in left.

From a visual perspective on Stubbs and Bruce defensively, the moon deck in right center is a great area to sit because you're essentially sitting just over their shoulders. Even the small, subtle aspects jump out when you're that close. Next time I'm in that area, I'll pay attention to any small changes depending on who's in the corners defensively.

Cedric
05-25-2010, 06:48 PM
Unfortunately, Gomes has started all the games in left this year in which I had moon deck seats and had a chance to watch Stubbs closely. I was down the left field line last night so I didn't have a great view to see if Stubbs made any adjustments when Nix entered in left.

From a visual perspective on Stubbs and Bruce defensively, the moon deck in right center is a great area to sit because you're essentially sitting just over their shoulders. Even the small, subtle aspects jump out when you're that close. Next time I'm in that area, I'll pay attention to any small changes depending on who's in the corners defensively.

I agree. I sit in 142 row A. It's amazing how great Jay Bruce is. You notice it even more watching Garrett Jones or even Fukodome.

Stubbs plays about the same even if Nix is in LF. Often you will see Billy Hatcher pushing Bruce or Stubbs in different directions though.

camisadelgolf
05-25-2010, 07:32 PM
Major league average in CF is .261/.330/.412/.741

If Stubbs can do that, the Reds will be in a good position.
For his career, Stubbs is at .245/.315/.413/.728. Many--myself included--believe that his production should only go up from here since he's still in the 'development' stage. If where he's at now is just a launching point, he might be end up well above average both offensively and defensively.

TRF
05-25-2010, 08:30 PM
Of course he needs to hit .800 (MLB average .735) he's stuck in the Bronson zone.

"Fans want the player to be not what he inherently is but what they think he ought to be."

Jim Bronson

top 10 pick's IMO should be held to a little higher standard. I also think the Reds had him completely miscast as a leadoff hitter. I think he can SLG .480+

westofyou
05-25-2010, 09:12 PM
top 10 pick's IMO should be held to a little higher standard. I also think the Reds had him completely miscast as a leadoff hitter. I think he can SLG .480+

Guys who make it are already beating the odds, why strap a piano on their back with further expectation barriers.

I'd leave the barriers for the day they start to make real cash.

RedsManRick
05-25-2010, 10:37 PM
top 10 pick's IMO should be held to a little higher standard. I also think the Reds had him completely miscast as a leadoff hitter. I think he can SLG .480+

I don't understand the use use of a "standard" here. The guy is who he is, he has the talent and potential that he has -- whether he was picked in the top 10 or in the 10th round. How we assess the amount of talent he has, at this point, should have basically nothing to do with where he was picked.

Whether or not we're going "top 10" production from him is a completely different conversation than setting realistic expectations based on his ability.

camisadelgolf
05-25-2010, 10:40 PM
Guys who make it are already beating the odds, why strap a piano on their back with further expectation barriers.

I'd leave the barriers for the day they start to make real cash.
+1

So many first rounders never even get a cup of coffee at the major league level, and many of the ones that do only do so because they were drafted in the first round. The only question I ask in determining whether the player was a bust or not was whether he earned his paycheck. I wouldn't yet say Stubbs has earned his two million dollar signing bonus, but he's well on his way. A center fielder with a .700 OPS and gold glove defense could easily earn a contract that pays him at least one million dollars per season, and the Reds will have paid him less than four million dollars by the time he's arbitration eligible. If you don't believe me, Willy Taveras makes more than that in just one season.

WMR
05-25-2010, 10:47 PM
If he can OPS .715 while playing his customary GG caliber defense, I'll be thrilled with him...

...

as long as he's batting 7th or lower.

mdccclxix
05-25-2010, 11:10 PM
How likely is it that he'll really start to produce as a 26, 27, 28, 29 year old? I'd say very.

HokieRed
05-25-2010, 11:13 PM
I like Stubbs a lot and always have, but I think he'll have to do better than .715 b/c if he does no better than that, he's going to have an awfully low OBP--because I don't think he's going to have any trouble with a .420 SLG. (a very conservative figure)

TRF
05-26-2010, 09:22 AM
Guys who make it are already beating the odds, why strap a piano on their back with further expectation barriers.

I'd leave the barriers for the day they start to make real cash.

I've followed him pretty closely. The Reds have completely misidentified his skillset. They see the blazing speed, and the ability to lay off bad pitches and thought leadoff hitter. Never mind the fact that he couldn't do anything with the pitches in the zone. And that was in the minor leagues. But one little glimmer was that he could hit for power when lower in the lineup. Why? who knows. He's comfortable there. In 83 AB's as the leadoff hitter this year, he has a .265 SLG. That's a little beyond a slump. For whatever reason he isn't getting the job done there.

Now looking at him physically, tall guy, long arms. Lanky, but super fast. His MLB career started at age 24, which is a little later than Eric Davis, but he reminds me a lot of Davis in some ways. If the Reds would stop looking at his speed as his primary tool, and look at his power instead, he could be a special player. Maybe better than Jay Bruce. Defensively, though they play different positions, and Bruce is a near elite defender, no one would suggest he's better than Stubbs relative to position. On the bases, Stubbs certainly has more speed. So if he starts to use that power, the way he always should have been developed to do, then he might be one of the best CF's in the game.

I don't understand How a team can be so patient with a Joey Votto through the minors, making sure he was best prepared to hit MLB pitching while finding the right position for him, fail to do the same thing with a top 10 pick. He was rushed through three levels of the minor leagues without ever coming close to dominating the pitching in the first two levels. He followed that with an abysmal performance in the AFL, and a completely forgettable stint in AAA before getting promoted again.

This isn't a critique of Stubbs the player as much as it is an indictment of the Reds poor handling of him. Physically, he has all the tools. Mentally, i think he's not sure what kind of player the Reds want him to be. And you can bet, if Cabrera went down tomorrow, the next day Stubbs would be in the leadoff spot with Dusty and the Reds coaches trying to get him to take to many hittable pitches, and go back to trying to be a slap hitter. He's more Eric Davis than Pete Rose.

RedsManRick
05-26-2010, 09:30 AM
He reminds me a bit of another wiry miscast leadoff hitter who hit .268/.304/.432 as a 25 year old rookie after a not terribly impressive AAA stint. Of course, that guy has done his best work batting leadoff, despite not being a good fit for it.

TheNext44
05-26-2010, 09:36 AM
He reminds me a bit of another wiry miscast leadoff hitter who hit .268/.304/.432 as a 25 year old rookie after a not terribly impressive AAA stint. Of course, that guy has done his best work batting leadoff, despite not being a good fit for it.

We're supposed to guess? Red or non Red? Or at least what team did he play for in his rookie year?

BRM
05-26-2010, 09:37 AM
We're supposed to guess? Red or non Red? Or at least what team did he play for in his rookie year?

Alfonso Soriano

TheNext44
05-26-2010, 09:40 AM
Alfonso Soriano

Thanks.

A long as Stubbs doesn't field like Soriano, I'll be happy. :)

TRF
05-26-2010, 12:58 PM
I'm trying to imagine Stubbs hitting .268.

Here is the thing, Soriano never abandoned his power in the leadoff spot. From 2006 to 2008, he was the leadoff hitter for WAS and CHI. His power and contact was never a problem. Because he could hit .285+, and as high as .308 added to his power meant he wasn't an easy out. He walked as many as 58 times, but his OBP was heavily hit driven. Truth is, Soriano could flat out hit, something Stubbs has yet to do really at any level. Soriano may have been a hacker, sort of a Vlad-lite, but with immense power. Stubbs so far lacks the skill to put the bat on the ball like that. Or rather he hasn't shown it in the leadoff spot. He is showing it lower in the order. Thats the human part of the game. He just isn't a leadoff hitter, where Soriano could hit anywhere.

dfs
05-26-2010, 01:28 PM
I'm trying to imagine Stubbs hitting .268.
He did it in his trial last year.
His "last 28 day" split at Baseball reference reads 264/333/483.

I know you can't cherry pick like that and all the games count. His numbers last year come during a September league and over the last 28 days the reds have had some healthy doses of pirate and astro's....but still it's pretty plain that he CAN do it.

His line against righties is what's holding him back. He hits righties worse than Brandon Phillips does and there is a lot of right handed pitching in the league.

He's miscast as a leadoff hitter, but that's not Stubb's fault any more than it is Phillips fault that he's not a cleanup hitter.

A healthy Chris Dickerson that would take away some of those at bats against tough righties would make Stubbs line look better.

I don't see Eric Davis, but he doesn't have to be Eric Davis in order to be a useful player and that's what he is.

TRF
05-26-2010, 02:12 PM
He did it in his trial last year.
His "last 28 day" split at Baseball reference reads 264/333/483.

I know you can't cherry pick like that and all the games count. His numbers last year come during a September league and over the last 28 days the reds have had some healthy doses of pirate and astro's....but still it's pretty plain that he CAN do it.

His line against righties is what's holding him back. He hits righties worse than Brandon Phillips does and there is a lot of right handed pitching in the league.

He's miscast as a leadoff hitter, but that's not Stubb's fault any more than it is Phillips fault that he's not a cleanup hitter.

A healthy Chris Dickerson that would take away some of those at bats against tough righties would make Stubbs line look better.

I don't see Eric Davis, but he doesn't have to be Eric Davis in order to be a useful player and that's what he is.


Again, I'm not critiquing Stubbs as much as I am how the Reds have handled him to date.

RedsManRick
05-26-2010, 02:54 PM
I wasn't trying make any specific point using the Stubbs/Soriano comparison other than to point out that it's an interesting comp.

The issue with Stubbs has always been two-fold:
1) Can he make enough contact?
2) Can he still hit for power if he's making enough contact?

His contact rate has been better in the 7-hole, as evidenced by his lowered strikeout (and walk) rates. However, his BABIP is WAY up in the 7 hole, from .189 to .389 as is his ISO, from .120 to .259. However, I don't know how much of that is due to him actually making better contact and, more importantly, we have no clue if that's a function of moving in the lineup, facing easier pitching, experience, dumb luck or what-have-you.

In any event, I'd like to see him stick in the 7 hole for awhile just to keep the pressure off and take one variable out of the equation. He can succeed striking out as much as he does -- he's right at the edge. But to do so, he's going to need to take a fair share of walks and he's going to have to hit for power when he does make contact. You can not be a productive singles hitter and a poor contact hitter -- they just don't jive.

TRF
05-26-2010, 03:48 PM
I wasn't trying make any specific point using the Stubbs/Soriano comparison other than to point out that it's an interesting comp.

The issue with Stubbs has always been two-fold:
1) Can he make enough contact?
2) Can he still hit for power if he's making enough contact?

His contact rate has been better in the 7-hole, as evidenced by his lowered strikeout (and walk) rates. However, his BABIP is WAY up in the 7 hole, from .189 to .389 as is his ISO, from .120 to .259. However, I don't know how much of that is due to him actually making better contact and, more importantly, we have no clue if that's a function of moving in the lineup, facing easier pitching, experience, dumb luck or what-have-you.

In any event, I'd like to see him stick in the 7 hole for awhile just to keep the pressure off and take one variable out of the equation. He can succeed striking out as much as he does -- he's right at the edge. But to do so, he's going to need to take a fair share of walks and he's going to have to hit for power when he does make contact. You can not be a productive singles hitter and a poor contact hitter -- they just don't jive.

Exactly. I'm starting to buy into the power. Its the human element of the game that seems screwed up. If he buys into himself as a power guy, it completely changes him as a hitter. All the rest, the speed, SB's, the walks then supplement his game, and are not the focus. I choe Davis as his comp because he was a Red, but I see the Soriano comp, especially if he can get over the contact issue and focus on power over singles. the walks and SB's will take care of themself as he'll be on base more.

simply put... he needs to hit better. :)

fearofpopvol1
05-27-2010, 04:40 AM
Stubbs' OPS for the season now is almost .700. Not amazing, but not bad either...especially whilst he is batting lower in the lineup. He had a good night last night.

camisadelgolf
05-27-2010, 09:30 AM
Stubbs is outperforming B.J. Upton this season.

PuffyPig
05-27-2010, 09:40 AM
Stubbs has his OPS close to .700, and amonth ago many thought he'd have trouble hitting above .600.

At .700 , with his speed and defense, he's a bona fide major league player.

If he can hit .240-250 (he's about .220 now), his OPS should be in the .750-.760 range, and he's actually be an above average CF for us.

REDREAD
05-27-2010, 11:55 AM
I'm just glad he's getting consistent PA. All players need to adjust when they come up to the majors. I don't know if he'll adjust enough to stick, but with his glove and speed, he should get every opportunity to do so.

Yes I agree. Stubbs is part of the youth movement/rebuild that everyone has been screaming for. Now that we finally have a decent CF prospect, we need to show a little bit of patience. Maybe Stubbs will stick at the ML level, maybe not. The guy certainly has the tools. Let's give him the entire year at CF and at least give him the opportunity to grow into the job. He's a great defender, that certainly makes it easier to be patient (as opposed to someone like Larson who had fewer tools and could not field worth a darn).

VR
05-27-2010, 03:08 PM
Speed/ Defense were mentioned. He also eats up a lot of pitches...4.2 per plate appearance...tied w/ Dunner for 15th in the NL.

dougdirt
05-29-2010, 07:54 PM
Drew Stubbs triple tonight showed just how fast he is. I went back and timed him with my stop watch. From home to third he ran 10.4 seconds. I have timed a bunch of guys in the minor leagues on triples. I have never even had another sub 11 second time on a triple.

fearofpopvol1
05-29-2010, 07:55 PM
I imagine his OPS is over 700 now?

dougdirt
05-29-2010, 07:59 PM
I imagine his OPS is over 700 now?

Not quite. Sitting at .696 after the triple.

hebroncougar
05-29-2010, 08:44 PM
Not quite. Sitting at .696 after the triple.


It is now. :p:

dougdirt
05-29-2010, 08:53 PM
It is now. :p:

Now at .718 :thumbup:

VR
05-29-2010, 09:32 PM
May have to change the thread title to "Drew Stubbs: Cycle" if he gets another ab tonight.

Captain Hook
05-29-2010, 09:55 PM
Uncle Stubby:laugh:

OnBaseMachine
05-29-2010, 10:42 PM
Stubbs is now OPSing .726. Could Stubbs have a 20/20 season? He's currently on pace to hit 21 home runs and steal 38 bases.

TRF
05-29-2010, 10:51 PM
mmmmmm.

crow...

I still maintain this is the human element of the game. He's clearly not a leadoff hitter. Power, speed and defense from the #7 hitter.

Razor Shines
05-29-2010, 11:01 PM
mmmmmm.

crow...

I still maintain this is the human element of the game. He's clearly not a leadoff hitter. Power, speed and defense from the #7 hitter.

I think he's not a lead off hitter right now. It's still possible that he could get on base enough later in his career to be a nice lead off hitter. I see no reason to move him from where he is right now though.

VR
05-29-2010, 11:02 PM
mmmmmm.

crow...

I still maintain this is the human element of the game. He's clearly not a leadoff hitter. Power, speed and defense from the #7 hitter.

Unfortunately, our current leadoff hitter isn't a leadoff hitter either. But things are rollin.

membengal
05-29-2010, 11:04 PM
O-Cab has been rakin' since moving to lead-off. His avg. and obp have been noteworthy and commendable since the switch. What more does he have to do?

Razor Shines
05-29-2010, 11:06 PM
O-Cab has been rakin' since moving to lead-off. His avg. and obp have been noteworthy and commendable since the switch. What more does he have to do?

Keep doing it for the rest of the season.

membengal
05-29-2010, 11:08 PM
Fine. But I don't get slagging on what Cabrera has done in terms of approach at the plate since moving into the spot. He's been exactly what you want from a leadoff hitter.

dougdirt
05-29-2010, 11:11 PM
I think he's not a lead off hitter right now. It's still possible that he could get on base enough later in his career to be a nice lead off hitter. I see no reason to move him from where he is right now though.

I would still avoid Stubbs in the leadoff spot if he is hitting 15+ HR's a year. That is just too much power to waste in the leadoff spot.

VR
05-29-2010, 11:22 PM
Fine. But I don't get slagging on what Cabrera has done in terms of approach at the plate since moving into the spot. He's been exactly what you want from a leadoff hitter.

He's been much better than expected in the 1 hole. I think that is cause for great celebration. His spunk and veteranness are a key factor to what they've done as a team so far this year.

His poor career showing in bases on balls is a big concern over the long haul to sustain success. Perhaps both of their successes have been affected by having much better hitters hitting behind them, who knows.


Just a reminder he's OpSing 30 points lower than Stubbs for the year.....with below average defense.

Yet, Stubbs should be waived, and Cabrera team MVP.

membengal
05-29-2010, 11:28 PM
Who wants Stubbs waived? Who says Cabrera is MVP? Must every position taken on this board be exaggerated until they have no meaning?

Why does one have to be celebrated at the expense of the other?

Seems to me, Dusty made a cagey move in getting Stubbs out of the leadoff spot, a position he is not particularly well suited for at the moment and perhaps maybe never. The human element, it is a factor. And Cabrera seems to fully be embracing his role there and actually has tailored his approach to the slot.

I just don't get being down on either player at this juncture.

VR
05-29-2010, 11:43 PM
Who wants Stubbs waived? Who says Cabrera is MVP? Must every position taken on this board be exaggerated until they have no meaning?

Why does one have to be celebrated at the expense of the other?

Seems to me, Dusty made a cagey move in getting Stubbs out of the leadoff spot, a position he is not particularly well suited for at the moment and perhaps maybe never. The human element, it is a factor. And Cabrera seems to fully be embracing his role there and actually has tailored his approach to the slot.

I just don't get being down on either player at this juncture.

I wonder what the title of this thread implies? :thumbup:

Cabrera has done well, no arguments here. But he's Jeff Keppinger defensively now and can't draw the walk over the course of a season. That is casue for concern over the long haul.

I'm enjoying Miguel Cairos run too....but not going to sign him to an extention just yet.

Homer Bailey
05-30-2010, 04:25 AM
Cabrera has done well, no arguments here. But he's Jeff Keppinger defensively now and can't draw the walk over the course of a season. That is casue for concern over the long haul.

I love a baseless comparison as much as the next guy, but this one tops 'em all

Keppinger UZR/150: -67.2
Cabrera UZR/150: -2.7

Cabrera isn't half as bad in the field as this board makes him out to be.

reds44
05-30-2010, 04:26 AM
I hate that this thread is the Stubbs thread that keeps getting bumped.

"Whoops."

Couldn't be happier to see him playing well. I really like him, even if this thread doesn't show it. Love his tools.

Homer Bailey
05-30-2010, 04:30 AM
I hate that this thread is the Stubbs thread that keeps getting bumped.

"Whoops."

Couldn't be happier to see him playing well. I really like him, even if this thread doesn't show it. Love his tools.

No shame in it.

I think the "lesson" to be learned (if there is one) is that we shouldn't judge based off one month's work. If that was the case then:

Cabrera should have been cut based on D
Gomes should have been cut
Stubbs should have been sent to AAA
Cairo should have been executed
Harang should have been mysteriously DL'd
Bruce should have been shipped out
Nix should have been sent to the curb.

SSS can be a you know what.

nate
05-30-2010, 07:53 AM
I love a baseless comparison as much as the next guy, but this one tops 'em all

Keppinger UZR/150: -67.2
Cabrera UZR/150: -2.7

Cabrera isn't half as bad in the field as this board makes him out to be.


SSS can be a you know what.

VR
05-30-2010, 10:59 AM
I love a baseless comparison as much as the next guy, but this one tops 'em all

Keppinger UZR/150: -67.2
Cabrera UZR/150: -2.7

Cabrera isn't half as bad in the field as this board makes him out to be.

Keppinger and Cabrera both make the plays 1 step either way, and that is about it.

OC obviously has more savvy for the position, and that shouldn't be overlooked. But he and Gomes are 'by far' the weakest links on defense. Over the long haul, left field has proven to be a position where a great team can carry a subpar defender. Shortstop is not necessarily the case.

westofyou
05-30-2010, 11:02 AM
I love a baseless comparison as much as the next guy, but this one tops 'em all

Keppinger UZR/150: -67.2
Cabrera UZR/150: -2.7

Cabrera isn't half as bad in the field as this board makes him out to be.

So, which is it?

You lean on UZR here and in Gomes case it's not applicable?

Brutus
05-30-2010, 11:06 AM
Cabrera isn't half as bad in the field as this board makes him out to be.

Cabrera is a good fielder - at least when he can get to a ball. He makes most of the routine plays. At one time or another, he got to quite a few balls. But those days are long gone.

According to Fangraphs, here are the plays made outside of the designated zones that shortstops are expected to make plays more than 50% of the time (by qualified shortstop)...

1. Stephen Drew (27 out of zone plays)
2. Erick Aybar (26)
3. Alex Gonzalez (25)
4. Marco Scutaro (24)
5. Ronny Cedeno (23)
....
21. J.J.Hardy (12)
22. Cliff Pennington (9)
23. Orlando Cabrera (7)

That's the list. Cabrera is dead last among qualified shortstops in making plays out of the 'routine' zones. Not only is he last, but it's by a remarkably wide margin.

Cabrera's range is as bad as they say it is. Is he a bad fielder? No - and that's not been the crux of the debate. But his range leaves a whole lot to be desired.

Homer Bailey
05-30-2010, 12:23 PM
So, which is it?

You lean on UZR here and in Gomes case it's not applicable?

No. For the umpteenth time, I have no problem with UZR. I have have a problem with blending it with offensive stats to come up with a number that determines a players value.

Homer Bailey
05-30-2010, 12:24 PM
That was the first example I grabbed. Admittedly it was not good evidence, but my point was that I'd be surprised if there is a single person on this board that truly thinks Jeff Keppinger is as good as OC on defense.

Homer Bailey
05-30-2010, 12:26 PM
Cabrera is a good fielder - at least when he can get to a ball. He makes most of the routine plays. At one time or another, he got to quite a few balls. But those days are long gone.

According to Fangraphs, here are the plays made outside of the designated zones that shortstops are expected to make plays more than 50% of the time (by qualified shortstop)...

1. Stephen Drew (27 out of zone plays)
2. Erick Aybar (26)
3. Alex Gonzalez (25)
4. Marco Scutaro (24)
5. Ronny Cedeno (23)
....
21. J.J.Hardy (12)
22. Cliff Pennington (9)
23. Orlando Cabrera (7)

That's the list. Cabrera is dead last among qualified shortstops in making plays out of the 'routine' zones. Not only is he last, but it's by a remarkably wide margin.

Cabrera's range is as bad as they say it is. Is he a bad fielder? No - and that's not been the crux of the debate. But his range leaves a whole lot to be desired.

I can't disagree with any of this. His first week in the field was absolutely brutal. I was nervous about him this year. Since then he has been A-okay with me defensively (aside from that 2nd inning last night, Geez OC).

westofyou
05-30-2010, 12:32 PM
No. For the umpteenth time, I have no problem with UZR. I have have a problem with blending it with offensive stats to come up with a number that determines a players value.

I totally agree, I was just pondering which path you were on based on the other post.

nate
05-30-2010, 12:47 PM
No. For the umpteenth time, I have no problem with UZR. I have have a problem with blending it with offensive stats to come up with a number that determines a players value.

But UZR is a large component of WAR. If you don't get that one right, the other isn't right.

Homer Bailey
05-30-2010, 12:54 PM
But UZR is a large component of WAR. If you don't get that one right, the other isn't right.

I'm not quite sure I understand what you're saying here.

My stance is, I'm fine with UZR when comparing players to other players when the sample size is sufficient. Not a fan of WAR because I think it drastically overstates the effect of defense. I'm sure many out there completely disagree with that, and have much more scientific reasons, but to again use the example I used earlier, I think it's silly to think that Ryan Braun is as valuable as Nyjer Morgan.

Razor Shines
05-31-2010, 08:14 PM
Now OPSing .743.

fearofpopvol1
05-31-2010, 09:38 PM
That triple he hit today would've been a double for probably 85-90% of MLB players.

If Stubbs can hit/maintain a .750 OPS, that would be really great for the Reds.

TRF
06-01-2010, 09:17 AM
70 AB's as the #7 hitter now this year... .343 .395 .614 1.009

never move him from that spot.

dougdirt
06-01-2010, 11:27 AM
70 AB's as the #7 hitter now this year... .343 .395 .614 1.009

never move him from that spot.

What about moving him to 6th?

I am with you on "don't put him in the leadoff spot", though I do think one day he may make a fine #5 or 6 guy.

VR
06-01-2010, 12:20 PM
What about moving him to 6th?

I am with you on "don't put him in the leadoff spot", though I do think one day he may make a fine #5 or 6 guy.

The only thing I don't like about 7th....is the ability to fully utilize his speed.
Would the Reds be a little more hesitant w/ his running knowing the other team can force their hand with the pitcher spot coming up.

Stubbs has shown good doubles + power that makes him a candidate for the 6 spot at some point.


I really think his ceiling is as a #2 guy.....once he starts showing the ability to hit all pitches in the zone.

TRF
06-01-2010, 12:23 PM
What about moving him to 6th?

I am with you on "don't put him in the leadoff spot", though I do think one day he may make a fine #5 or 6 guy.

I wouldn't do it yet. I'd want him to embrace his role as a power hitter lower in the lineup, let his instincts take over rather than what he thinks he should do as a hitter. I remember saying this about him as a minor leaguer, A guy with power that doesn't hit for power, doesn't have power. It was simplistic, but true. If you have a tool and don't use it, or worse, don't know how to use it, then it is of no use. Let him learn his power game lower in the order. If he's still tearing it up after the ASB, then I'd try it. His history is one of a very streaky hitter. This surge may not last long.

I Still think the Reds cost him nearly a year of development by not understanding what kind of hitter he really is.

fearofpopvol1
06-06-2010, 07:04 PM
Now that we're at the 1/3 of the season mark, Stubbs numbers aren't half bad. He is OPS'ing 736 on the season (749 if you count last year). I've watched his ABs and I really think he's starting to put it together at the plate. He had another great day at the plate today. If Gomes wasn't on fire, I'd move him up to the 6 hole, but no need to do that while Gomes is killing it.

On the negative side, he made 3 questionable defensive plays this series.

1.) Where he barely threw the ball in and the runner tagged up from 3rd and scored as the ball hit the mound.

2.) The incident with Gomes and the ball dropping, though I'm not sure this was totally his fault.

3.) He lazily through the ball in today late in the game and a runner tagged up from 1st base (and the ball was not at the warning track).

I really hope Dusty is talking with him about these blunders.

VR
06-06-2010, 07:08 PM
Now that we're at the 1/3 of the season mark, Stubbs numbers aren't half bad. He is OPS'ing 736 on the season (749 if you count last year). I've watched his ABs and I really think he's starting to put it together at the plate. He had another great day at the plate today. If Gomes wasn't on fire, I'd move him up to the 6 hole, but no need to do that while Gomes is killing it.

On the negative side, he made 3 questionable defensive plays this series.

1.) Where he barely threw the ball in and the runner tagged up from 3rd and scored as the ball hit the mound.

2.) The incident with Gomes and the ball dropping, though I'm not sure this was totally his fault.

3.) He lazily through the ball in today late in the game and a runner tagged up from 1st base (and the ball was not at the warning track).

I really hope Dusty is talking with him about these blunders.

Not sure I'd call them 'blunders'....mostly just having the need to be aggressive on those plays. He made a catch in left center that looked like a for sure double today. The kid can flat out fly.

I'm a little concerned that he's not attempting to steal more often.....he's had plenty of chances lately and hasn't move. Any thoughts?

bucksfan2
06-06-2010, 07:11 PM
Now that we're at the 1/3 of the season mark, Stubbs numbers aren't half bad. He is OPS'ing 736 on the season (749 if you count last year). I've watched his ABs and I really think he's starting to put it together at the plate. He had another great day at the plate today. If Gomes wasn't on fire, I'd move him up to the 6 hole, but no need to do that while Gomes is killing it.

On the negative side, he made 3 questionable defensive plays this series.

1.) Where he barely threw the ball in and the runner tagged up from 3rd and scored as the ball hit the mound.

2.) The incident with Gomes and the ball dropping, though I'm not sure this was totally his fault.

3.) He lazily through the ball in today late in the game and a runner tagged up from 1st base (and the ball was not at the warning track).

I really hope Dusty is talking with him about these blunders.

1) I didn't have an issue with this play. To be honset if that ball hadn't hit where it did it would have one hopped the catcher and been a nice play at the plate. I think Stubbs often doesn't look like he is hustling because he looks so at ease doing it.

2) Stubbs got the error but that is one Gomes. The replay showed Stubbs saying "I got it" but Gomes didn't move. If Stubbs can get to the ball it is his.

3) Didn't see that play but the catch he made in the gap I thought was a sure fire double. Great catch!

Brutus
06-06-2010, 07:46 PM
Stubbs is up to a .736 OPS, which is probably supportive of the defense and speed he provides. If he continues to get the average (and consequently OBP) up, we're looking at close to an 800 OPS guy.

OnBaseMachine
06-06-2010, 08:10 PM
He made a catch in left center that looked like a for sure double today. The kid can flat out fly.


I thought that catch Stubbs made today was amazing. That ball looked like a definite double off the bat but somehow Stubbs caught it with ease. This wasn't just some flyball that hung up in the air, it was a frozen rope. You won't see that play on the highlight reels because he didn't dive for it but it was one of the better catches I've seen this season. I was talking about this with my dad a little while ago - very rarely do you see Stubbs have to dive for a ball because most of the time he gets a tremendous jump and catches the ball standing up.

I know I may be biased, but I watch a lot of baseball and IMO there's not a better defensive center fielder in the game than Stubbs.

Strikes Out Looking
06-06-2010, 08:11 PM
3.) He lazily through the ball in today late in the game and a runner tagged up from 1st base (and the ball was not at the warning track).

I really hope Dusty is talking with him about these blunders.

I saw the play live, I'm not so sure he lazily through the ball in--IIRC, he was going away from the infield in making the catch.

Blitz Dorsey
06-06-2010, 08:18 PM
Keep proving me wrong Drew! I'm loving it. I really didn't think this kid was ready to play everyday but he flat-out won today's game for the Reds and he's earned his keep.

jojo
06-06-2010, 08:23 PM
I thought that catch Stubbs made today was amazing. That ball looked like a definite double off the bat but somehow Stubbs caught it with ease. This wasn't just some flyball that hung up in the air, it was a frozen rope. You won't see that play on the highlight reels because he didn't dive for it but it was one of the better catches I've seen this season. I was talking about this with my dad a little while ago - very rarely do you see Stubbs have to dive for a ball because most of the time he gets a tremendous jump and catches the ball standing up.

I know I may be biased, but I watch a lot of baseball and IMO there's not a better defensive center fielder in the game than Stubbs.

I think Franklin Gutierrez is better but really it may be an academic argument.

Tom Servo
06-06-2010, 08:41 PM
bullpen or whatever

lollipopcurve
06-06-2010, 08:58 PM
I think Franklin Gutierrez is better but really it may be an academic argument.

Stubbs has a ways to go before he's as good at Gutierrez, in my opinion. Gutierrez is much more aggressive and effective when leaving his feet and on plays at the wall.

Sea Ray
06-06-2010, 09:52 PM
Maybe it's just my perception but it seems to me that Stubbs has significantly contributed to a lot of wins this year through his hitting defense and base running. I don't have any stats to back that up but it seems like he's been in the middle of game winning rallies a lot.

LoganBuck
06-06-2010, 11:00 PM
What is funny is that I am growing accustomed to whenever the ball goes in the air, I expect Stubbs to catch it. When Morse hit that gap shot double off Cordero in the ninth, I was expecting Stubbs to run it down. He is spoiling me.

bucksfan2
06-07-2010, 08:37 AM
The only complaint I have with Stubbs defense, and it really isn't much of a complaint, is he plays a deeper CF than most great CF's I have seen. He tracks the ball very well into the corners but he doesn't get to many bloop hits that shallower CF's get to.

fugowitribe
06-07-2010, 08:44 AM
If I had to complain about Drew Stubbs, I would bring up his play around the wall. He and the other Reds' OFers are not exactly the most graceful when it comes to balls hit off or to the wall. It seems like they always get there, but then their nerves or excitment get the best of them and we end up with walk off Grand Slams and Crashes into the wall as the ball bounces out into play.

nate
06-07-2010, 09:31 AM
Maybe it's just my perception but it seems to me that Stubbs has significantly contributed to a lot of wins this year through his hitting defense and base running. I don't have any stats to back that up but it seems like he's been in the middle of game winning rallies a lot.

He currently is at 0.6 WAR. I think UZR is selling him short in CF so that's probably a little lighter than his true contribution. As the season goes on, UZR will capture his defensive value more accurately and he could end up with the 2-ish WAR projection (http://www.fangraphs.com/fanpdetails.aspx?playerid=9328&position=OF).

UKFlounder
06-07-2010, 11:41 AM
Is Stubbs an example of player "development" i.e. he wasn't an instant star, but by being allowed to keep playing he has shown and developed his skills and is becoming a contributing (at least) player? Is this how "player development" is supposed to work?

TRF
06-07-2010, 11:43 AM
Is Stubbs an example of player "development" i.e. he wasn't an instant star, but by being allowed to keep playing he has shown and developed his skills and is becoming a contributing (at least) player? Is this how "player development" is supposed to work?

I don't think so. The minors are for development, and he was miscast in the minors as a leadoff hitter. The power potential was there, but never used. Lower in the order he seems to be allowing his instincts to surface rather than what he was "taught" he should be.

UKFlounder
06-07-2010, 11:48 AM
Good point.

Still I like that they put him in the lineup and let him play, instead of benching or sending him down when he struggled. (Of course, I recognize that part of that is that last year's team was bad enough to be able to afford that and even at the start of this year, there were questions about the Reds ability to compete. A true contender may not have been able to be so patient.)


I don't think so. The minors are for development, and he was miscast in the minors as a leadoff hitter. The power potential was there, but never used. Lower in the order he seems to be allowing his instincts to surface rather than what he was "taught" he should be.

Sea Ray
06-07-2010, 12:20 PM
I don't think so. The minors are for development, and he was miscast in the minors as a leadoff hitter. The power potential was there, but never used. Lower in the order he seems to be allowing his instincts to surface rather than what he was "taught" he should be.

Your opinion of Stubbs and his development has generated a lot challenges from others around here but to your credit, recent happenings continue to support your case

Brutus
06-07-2010, 12:25 PM
Your opinion of Stubbs and his development has generated a lot challenges from others around here but to your credit, recent happenings continue to support your case

I'd remind him that he insisted Stubbs didn't have any power, and clearly that's not the case :cool:

I still think it's silly to suggest Stubbs can't be an effective leadoff hitter based on what is happening this year. I think the only thing we can conclude (yet) is that he's young and is more comfortable (at least for now) without the pressure of being a leadoff hitter.

Once Stubbs is confident in his abilities, begins recognizing pitches, makes adjustments to how he's pitched, etc., there is nothing stopping him from being a good leadoff guy. He values patience, has speed and would help distract pitchers from the middle of the Reds' order. What's happening right now is not an indictment on where he ultimately should hit, but where he feels more comfortable now.

VR
06-07-2010, 12:33 PM
I'd remind him that he insisted Stubbs didn't have any power, and clearly that's not the case :cool:

I still think it's silly to suggest Stubbs can't be an effective leadoff hitter based on what is happening this year. I think the only thing we can conclude (yet) is that he's young and is more comfortable (at least for now) without the pressure of being a leadoff hitter.

Once Stubbs is confident in his abilities, begins recognizing pitches, makes adjustments to how he's pitched, etc., there is nothing stopping him from being a good leadoff guy. He values patience, has speed and would help distract pitchers from the middle of the Reds' order. What's happening right now is not an indictment on where he ultimately should hit, but where he feels more comfortable now.

I'm feeling more and more strongly that the 2 spot might be his long term home.
He may not have the 'contact' bat that some prefer there. If the leadoff guy is on...he has the patience to let him steal, the power to get him home, and the ability to stay out of the DP on ground balls.

TRF
06-07-2010, 12:33 PM
Your opinion of Stubbs and his development has generated a lot challenges from others around here but to your credit, recent happenings continue to support your case

I think there is a human element to the game that often gets overlooked. Much like Todd Coffey wasn't suited to close, but often excelled in the setup role. Sometimes players shouldn't hit in certain slots.

Brandon Phillips as the #2 hitter: .304 .370 .478 .848

Yes, it's 115 AB's, but for whatever reason, he's been tremendous there. Is his approach different? His mindset? I have no idea, but it sure is working.


Stubbs as the #7 hitter, 91 AB's .330 .386 .571 .957. That is an astounding line. It's a Joey Votto line. Add in his defense, and he's likely the team's best player.

Do you have any idea how hard that was for me to type?!

And all it took was about a month's worth of AB's, losing PT to Dickerson trying to figure out how to get him going. All it took was for Baker to see he's not a leadoff hitter. I can't say enough about how he has managed Stubbs this year. I wouldn't move him up higher in the lineup this year at all. Next year, I'd try him in the 6th spot, but for now, for this year, he'd be written in pen at #7

TRF
06-07-2010, 12:35 PM
I'd remind him that he insisted Stubbs didn't have any power, and clearly that's not the case :cool:

I still think it's silly to suggest Stubbs can't be an effective leadoff hitter based on what is happening this year. I think the only thing we can conclude (yet) is that he's young and is more comfortable (at least for now) without the pressure of being a leadoff hitter.

Once Stubbs is confident in his abilities, begins recognizing pitches, makes adjustments to how he's pitched, etc., there is nothing stopping him from being a good leadoff guy. He values patience, has speed and would help distract pitchers from the middle of the Reds' order. What's happening right now is not an indictment on where he ultimately should hit, but where he feels more comfortable now.

What I said, and you can look it up, is if you have power but you don't use it, then you don't have power. I stand by that.

Brutus
06-07-2010, 12:45 PM
What I said, and you can look it up, is if you have power but you don't use it, then you don't have power. I stand by that.

Right. And I get that argument. But you were concluding that because he wasn't using it in the minor leagues that therefore it didn't exist. The crux of the issue was that many players don't start developing their power until closer to 'prime' age and thereby it doesn't start showing until they're in the majors.

The old adage, "minor league doubles become major league homers," applies here. If you look at Stubbs' extra base hit percentage from the minors until now, it's virtually the same - but those doubles are going now for home runs.

Major League XBH% - 7.5%
Minor League XBH% - 7.6%

The difference is that he's now hitting homers at 3.5% in the majors versus 1.6% in the minors.

dougdirt
06-07-2010, 12:51 PM
What I said, and you can look it up, is if you have power but you don't use it, then you don't have power. I stand by that.

And I still say its wrong. Willy Taveras does not have power. Corey Patterson does. Neither guy used it in Cincinnati, but one guy had it and one guy didn't. There is a large difference between using it and having the ability to use it. Some guys don't have it. Some guys don't use it. Large difference. Stubbs has always had it. He just didn't always use it.

TRF
06-07-2010, 12:59 PM
Right. And I get that argument. But you were concluding that because he wasn't using it in the minor leagues that therefore it didn't exist. The crux of the issue was that many players don't start developing their power until closer to 'prime' age and thereby it doesn't start showing until they're in the majors.

The old adage, "minor league doubles become major league homers," applies here. If you look at Stubbs' extra base hit percentage from the minors until now, it's virtually the same - but those doubles are going now for home runs.

Major League XBH% - 7.5%
Minor League XBH% - 7.6%

The difference is that he's now hitting homers at 3.5% in the majors versus 1.6% in the minors.

What little power he displayed at Dayton, evaporated over the next two seasons. His development as a leadoff hitter IMO quashed his power as the organization emphasized an approach that made his power secondary at best. Had he not made the Reds out of ST, that same development path may have continued. BTW, that old adage is silly. It's an outlier adage when scouts/coaches like a skillset that hasn't really made itself known. Will Michael Stanton's HR's be longer once he gets called up? Of course not.

Stubbs problem wasn't that he didn't hit the ball hard, his approach to hitting period was flawed. Now that he's not as concerned about getting on base, guess what? he's getting on base. It's building his confidence. He's still drawing BB's, but now pitchers are respecting his power. I've only managed to see a few games, but he looks different at the plate batting lower in the order. I can only guess why, and maybe its just a small sample size and he'll go back to being the player he was in April/early May.

TRF
06-07-2010, 01:01 PM
And I still say its wrong. Willy Taveras does not have power. Corey Patterson does. Neither guy used it in Cincinnati, but one guy had it and one guy didn't. There is a large difference between using it and having the ability to use it. Some guys don't have it. Some guys don't use it. Large difference. Stubbs has always had it. He just didn't always use it.

My point is it doesn't matter. Don't have it. Don't use it. Same result. And it wasn't like Stubbs didn't use it by choice. He lost the ability to use it after Dayton.

And that is all on the Reds minor league coaches.

dougdirt
06-07-2010, 01:05 PM
My point is it doesn't matter. Don't have it. Don't use it. Same result. And it wasn't like Stubbs didn't use it by choice. He lost the ability to use it after Dayton.

And that is all on the Reds minor league coaches.

Errrr, incorrect again. Stubbs used it in the FSL, but it went unnoticed because you are only looking at his numbers and not paying attention to the context. He then went to AA/AAA and slugged .437 that same season. Sure, in 2009 he didn't use it in AAA.

And the largest difference you continue to overlook is not having it means you will never have it. Not using it means you could hit for power one day. Willy Taveras will never hit for power. Drew Stubbs will and has. Pretending its the same is just flat out ridiculous.

Will M
06-07-2010, 01:09 PM
He currently is at 0.6 WAR. I think UZR is selling him short in CF so that's probably a little lighter than his true contribution. As the season goes on, UZR will capture his defensive value more accurately and he could end up with the 2-ish WAR projection (http://www.fangraphs.com/fanpdetails.aspx?playerid=9328&position=OF).

i don't know. he has the wheels but i haven't been seeing a super defender in CF in the games i have watched. he has dropped a few. he has misplayed a few. i'm not saying he is a bad defender. just that so far IMO i wouldn't be giving him a gold glove.

Caveat Emperor
06-07-2010, 01:27 PM
Sometimes players shouldn't hit in certain slots.

I think the issue is less with the slot # that Drew Stubbs is hitting in but, rather, who is batting around Drew Stubbs.

When Joey Votto is sitting in the hole, you pitch carefully to avoid letting him hit with runners on. When Johnny Cueto or Aaron Harang is sitting in the hole, you can let it rip to Stubbs and feel confident in retiring one of the next two guys.

OnBaseMachine
06-07-2010, 01:32 PM
i don't know. he has the wheels but i haven't been seeing a super defender in CF in the games i have watched. he has dropped a few. he has misplayed a few. i'm not saying he is a bad defender. just that so far IMO i wouldn't be giving him a gold glove.

Really? In my eyes, Stubbs has been a super defender. Yeah, he's lost a couple of balls in the lights but other than that he's been great, IMO. I saw Franklin Gutierrez take a terrible route on a flyball a few days ago and turned it into an extra-base hit. It happens to even the best of defenders sometimes. I think Stubbs is one of the top two defensive center fielders in the game.

bucksfan2
06-07-2010, 01:44 PM
I think there is a human element to the game that often gets overlooked. Much like Todd Coffey wasn't suited to close, but often excelled in the setup role. Sometimes players shouldn't hit in certain slots.

Brandon Phillips as the #2 hitter: .304 .370 .478 .848

Yes, it's 115 AB's, but for whatever reason, he's been tremendous there. Is his approach different? His mindset? I have no idea, but it sure is working.


Stubbs as the #7 hitter, 91 AB's .330 .386 .571 .957. That is an astounding line. It's a Joey Votto line. Add in his defense, and he's likely the team's best player.

You bring up a very good point. I don't agree with most, if not all of what you have said about Stubbs and his development during his time in the Reds organization. I think there is a large human element that does get over looked especially when you deal with certain slots in the order, as well as the players who are in those slots.

For example I think Stubbs was doing everything that is typically wanted in the lead off slot, he just wasn't successful. You wanted him to take pitches and he did that, he just often got behind in the count and ended up walking back to the dugout after a strike out. Its a tough position to put a rookie in, but is compounded even more by Stubbs contact issues. Most people scoffed this preseason when Larkin said he liked Cabrera in the lead off role but Cabrera has played pretty well in that capacity. He will see a lot of pitches and is a good contact hitter. He can fall behind in the count 1-2 or 2-2, foul pitches off, and see a number of pitches. He can do something that Stubbs was unable to do.

Phillips is another interesting case in that I cringe whenever he is inserted into the 4 spot. I really think he plays mind games because he thinks he needs to be the power hitter in the order. Its never good when you have a player try and change his approach based upon line up slot.

lollipopcurve
06-07-2010, 01:45 PM
My point is it doesn't matter. Don't have it. Don't use it. Same result.

This kind of evaluation would not get a scout very far.

Cedric
06-07-2010, 01:53 PM
Really? In my eyes, Stubbs has been a super defender. Yeah, he's lost a couple of balls in the lights but other than that he's been great, IMO. I saw Franklin Gutierrez take a terrible route on a flyball a few days ago and turned it into an extra-base hit. It happens to even the best of defenders sometimes. I think Stubbs is one of the top two defensive center fielders in the game.

Happens when fans watch EVERY single play during a season.

Stubbs has made some amazing plays this year. His range is the best I have seen in person by far this year.

TRF
06-07-2010, 02:23 PM
Errrr, incorrect again. Stubbs used it in the FSL, but it went unnoticed because you are only looking at his numbers and not paying attention to the context. He then went to AA/AAA and slugged .437 that same season. Sure, in 2009 he didn't use it in AAA.

And the largest difference you continue to overlook is not having it means you will never have it. Not using it means you could hit for power one day. Willy Taveras will never hit for power. Drew Stubbs will and has. Pretending its the same is just flat out ridiculous.

And you continue to ignore the sample sizes of that 2008 season, which in my mind is ridiculous. You also excuse his performance in the AFL saying he was tired. Funny how other players that logged just as many innings weren't. You also hold fast to subjective stats like LD% which are unreliable in the lower minors.

You also keep thinking my statement is a criticism of Stubbs, when I have clearly stated it's on the Reds development staff. If you have a skill, but aren't taught BY YOUR INSTRUCTORS how to properly use it, then you aren't likely to develop it to its true potential. The Reds were incorrectly trying to address his contact issues by trying to get him to see more pitches. As you have stated he was letting a lot of pitches he could drive go right down the middle. The result was less contact, more K's and his OBP suffered, because he wasn't getting hits. Now he seems more aggressive, looking for pitches to drive. That's because of Baker and the coaches at the MLB level. And wow, he's still drawing the BB's. But its approach that is important. Had the Reds not promoted him out of ST, and kept him at AAA, I have no doubt he'd have been leading off and duplicating his numbers from last year, .675 as a leadoff hitter, .748 as #2 hitter with BABIP's of .344 and .358 respectfully, indicating he was lucky to post the numbers he did.

The Reds development staff gets an F for Stubbs, the Reds MLB coaches a B and climbing for recognizing he's not a leadoff hitter and emphasizing his power game.

TRF
06-07-2010, 02:25 PM
This kind of evaluation would not get a scout very far.

Scouting is different from developing.

Sea Ray
06-07-2010, 02:31 PM
Do you have any idea how hard that was for me to type?!



Are you ready to type that he's not a bust?

lollipopcurve
06-07-2010, 02:32 PM
Scouting is different from developing.

It's hard to make the argument that Stubbs was poorly developed given his performance in the major leagues so far.

You've misunderstood things about this player for a long time, though.

Sea Ray
06-07-2010, 02:34 PM
i don't know. he has the wheels but i haven't been seeing a super defender in CF in the games i have watched. he has dropped a few. he has misplayed a few. i'm not saying he is a bad defender. just that so far IMO i wouldn't be giving him a gold glove.

Very much like Jay Bruce's rookie yr when he booted quite a few

Brutus
06-07-2010, 02:35 PM
The Reds development staff gets an F for Stubbs, the Reds MLB coaches a B and climbing for recognizing he's not a leadoff hitter and emphasizing his power game.

This makes no sense. The Reds get an F for developing a player for over 3 years that is now producing at the Major League level?

So those 3 years they did terrible with Stubbs, but somehow, miraculously, the Major League staff was able to correct 3 years of poor instruction in roughly 5 months of hands-on work?

Right.

The fact that Stubbs is now starting to reach some of his offensive potential, to me, is evidence maybe all those years of development wasn't so poor after all.

Caveat Emperor
06-07-2010, 02:48 PM
The Reds development staff gets an F for Stubbs, the Reds MLB coaches a B and climbing for recognizing he's not a leadoff hitter and emphasizing his power game.

Of course, we're assigning causality without accounting for all the variables. It could very well be the case that Stubbs would have posted the exact same line out of the leadoff spot as he has out of the #7 spot and that the "improvement" we're seeing is as much a result of seeing more pitching and making adjustments as it is anything else.

Leadoff / #7 -- the skill set remains pretty consistent: pitch recognition, swing at good pitches, lay off bad pitches.

nate
06-07-2010, 03:00 PM
Of course, we're assigning causality without accounting for all the variables. It could very well be the case that Stubbs would have posted the exact same line out of the leadoff spot as he has out of the #7 spot and that the "improvement" we're seeing is as much a result of seeing more pitching and making adjustments as it is anything else.

Leadoff / #7 -- the skill set remains pretty consistent: pitch recognition, swing at good pitches, lay off bad pitches.

Yes.

TRF
06-07-2010, 03:04 PM
Of course, we're assigning causality without accounting for all the variables. It could very well be the case that Stubbs would have posted the exact same line out of the leadoff spot as he has out of the #7 spot and that the "improvement" we're seeing is as much a result of seeing more pitching and making adjustments as it is anything else.

Leadoff / #7 -- the skill set remains pretty consistent: pitch recognition, swing at good pitches, lay off bad pitches.

Skill without context. I don't know, none of us do what adjustments Baker and his staff made when dropping him to 7th in the order. But 2009 was abysmal at AAA. 2008 was a series of promotions where he started out hot, then slumped badly. He went through three levels of the minors without dominating a single one of them (well, AAA, but he was there all of 75 AB's)

It's like the Reds were trying to fit him into a mold shaped like Juan Pierre. He was often compared to Mike Cameron on this board, but the Reds weren't training him to be Mike Cameron.

Skills without context. His body had the idea, the best idea of the type of player he wants, or rather can be. He was just handed the wrong instruction manual.

TRF
06-07-2010, 03:05 PM
Oh and Sea Ray... He's not a bust.

i feel dirty.

TRF
06-07-2010, 03:06 PM
Of course, we're assigning causality without accounting for all the variables. It could very well be the case that Stubbs would have posted the exact same line out of the leadoff spot as he has out of the #7 spot and that the "improvement" we're seeing is as much a result of seeing more pitching and making adjustments as it is anything else.

Leadoff / #7 -- the skill set remains pretty consistent: pitch recognition, swing at good pitches, lay off bad pitches.

Or he could have an entirely different approach in his head as a leadoff hitter which gets in the way of him being a successful hitter.

Caveat Emperor
06-07-2010, 03:53 PM
Or he could have an entirely different approach in his head as a leadoff hitter which gets in the way of him being a successful hitter.

A valid explanation, but not any more or any less valid an explanation than the one I put forward -- the more pitching he has seen, the better he has become at recognizing what opposing pitchers are doing to retire him and countering that with adjustments of his own at the plate.

The point is, it's silly to "blame" parts of an organization for failures when you cannot agree, or even guess with a reasonable degree of certainty, as to what the problem was in the first place.

Sea Ray
06-07-2010, 03:58 PM
Oh and Sea Ray... He's not a bust.

i feel dirty.

You are a stand up guy and at the end of the day that matters more than what we spout ...:thumbup:

:beerme:

osuceltic
06-07-2010, 04:30 PM
What I think is interesting is that TRF became the voice of the anti-Stubbs crowd, but he was just one of many who were tough on the kid over the past three years. The others have pretty much disappeared -- sort of like one poster who deemed Mesoraco a bust and enjoyed saying "I told you so" as the kid strugged in his first two seasons.

Whether it's Stubbs, Mesoraco, Stewart, Rolen or Dusty Baker, we all should remember we're not as smart as we think we are. "I was wrong" may not taste good coming out, but you're not going to choke on it either.

TRF
06-07-2010, 04:31 PM
A valid explanation, but not any more or any less valid an explanation than the one I put forward -- the more pitching he has seen, the better he has become at recognizing what opposing pitchers are doing to retire him and countering that with adjustments of his own at the plate.

The point is, it's silly to "blame" parts of an organization for failures when you cannot agree, or even guess with a reasonable degree of certainty, as to what the problem was in the first place.

Well the path they had him on certainly didn't help. And he wasn't recognizing pitches in AAA. Numbers and math are fine, but have to be put into a human being/context. Stubbs + Leadoff = bad. Coffey + Closer equaled disaster. Phillips + cleanup = out machine. There is a human element to the game, and for whatever reason, Stubbs leading off does not work. And that's ok. Bat him 7th and let him drive guys in. If he gets on because he is pitched around, fine. He's upped the pitch count and is a SB threat.

Sometimes you can't just say put player X in the 1 slot just because a guy SEEMS to fit your idea of a leadoff hitter. It's more than tools.

TRF
06-07-2010, 04:43 PM
One more thing. The development side of the Reds has been a problem for years. Not finding a permanent position for Frazier was criminal. How many reds minor leaguers from 1998-2004 were developed into top flight major leaguers? Dunn and Votto. That's it I think. Maybe one more. Expand that to 2006 and you can add Bruce (on the cusp) and Cueto. Will Stubbs and Bailey become more than what they have been? Krivsky really screwed up Bailey by bringing him north waaaaay too soon.

Bailey, Stubbs, Cueto all with the tools/talent to be at the very top of their positions, but for some reason they aren't there yet. You could say youth, but even among their peers in age, they aren't mentioned with the same revere as others. I'm glad Leake went straight to the show. No chance of the Reds minor league instructors damaging him. Though I hear Brown is a good pitching coach.

RedEye
06-07-2010, 04:57 PM
Oh and Sea Ray... He's not a bust.

i feel dirty.

Does anyone else feel like this is a truly historic post on RZ? :D

TRF, it has been a pleasure to read your consistent (and well-written) Stubbs opinions these past three years or so. I'm glad to see you aren't too entrenched to admit you were wrong on some of them.

TRF
06-07-2010, 05:01 PM
Hey, I still think Valaika and Dorn are better hitters from that draft, but overall he is the best overall player.

can't.... get..... clean....

Scrap Irony
06-07-2010, 07:24 PM
One more thing. The development side of the Reds has been a problem for years. Not finding a permanent position for Frazier was criminal. How many reds minor leaguers from 1998-2004 were developed into top flight major leaguers? Dunn and Votto. That's it I think. Maybe one more. Expand that to 2006 and you can add Bruce (on the cusp) and Cueto. Will Stubbs and Bailey become more than what they have been? Krivsky really screwed up Bailey by bringing him north waaaaay too soon.

Bailey, Stubbs, Cueto all with the tools/talent to be at the very top of their positions, but for some reason they aren't there yet. You could say youth, but even among their peers in age, they aren't mentioned with the same revere as others. I'm glad Leake went straight to the show. No chance of the Reds minor league instructors damaging him. Though I hear Brown is a good pitching coach.

This new drum you're beating-- like Keith Moon on greenies-- doesn't hold weght logically, TRF.

What you're saying is that the Reds are so adept at drafting (Bruce, Stubbs, Bailey) and finding international free agents (Cueto) that they find prospects that not only don't need help, they find prospects that play at All Star or near All Star levels after being harmed by a minor league system so putrid that it can't help but destroy careers.

Fact is, the draft, free agent acquisitions, and minor league development have worked hand in hand to make this team a legitimate contender.

TRF
06-08-2010, 11:41 AM
Scouting for the draft and int'l free agents has been pretty good. The Reds have been just bad enough for top 10 picks, but not bad enough for a top 5 pick. The picks between 2000-2003, were horrendous, but we can attribute that to the cheapness of Allen/Lindner and Bowden's crew. But the 2004 draft was very good, 2005 was too. 2006 was considered a weak year, but the Reds got a lot out of that draft. 2007 is starting to look fantastic.

But... Frazier has no position. The Reds have yet to develop a TOR starter. The IF has one player developed by the Reds in Votto. The OF is better, but has no superstars. The C position has been a running joke for a decade, but certainly looks promising in the minors right now.

There have been 4 regime changes in the last 7 years. That takes a toll on development, as philosophies change. Krivsky smartly cleaned house when he came on board, something DanO should have done. Jocketty didn't as I think he helped WK build the infrastructure. Probably a good idea there. Get the Jimbo people gone.

Here is a case in point. Strasburg was considered more polished than Chapman, but WAS sent him to AA to start the year. Why? Development. get him used to the 5 day grind while facing talent he could better handle. That is smart development. It's also smart from a PR standpoint, but that's another discussion.

Stubbs was rushed through the minors, even though his bat wasn't even close to ready. His glove was, certainly. But so was Dickerson's, and he was held back because of his bat. They have very similar skills, excellent defenders, some power, great speed. So why was one rushed and the other on a slower development track?

Why is the Reds top pick from 2 years ago (Alonso) OPSing .631? Was he a bad pick or is he being developed wrong.

Does anyone really look at the Reds as an organization and have the words professional, plan, organized, roadmap come to mind? To me, on the development side, they seem to react more than plan. They seem willing to take wild chances like Soto to catcher or Gil to pitcher. Which is fine. But how do you not have a position for one of your top prospects? Why would you move your #1 pick to LF at AA when he's clearly a 1B? I don't care that Votto is the Reds 1B. Alonso only has value at 1B, not LF. If he never plays an inning as a Red, but fetches value in a trade, then the pick isn't wasted. But if he's a sub .800 OPS corner OF that is, well, not a good defender, then the pick was pointless.

Now going forward, the Reds could be developing a plan to better train their minor leaguers. I don't see it, but it could be there. IMO they are hurting Frazier and Alonso, could have done Chapman better by starting him in AA and have yet to find and develop that TOR pitcher. I think they have two TOR arms in Bailey and Cueto, but haven't developed them into that yet. No one in the minors other than Chapman fits that TOR bill. In fact, Bailey was handled so poorly, he could have been Reithed.

Is it because of scouting or development?

Hey, its just my opinion.

bucksfan2
06-08-2010, 02:35 PM
But... Frazier has no position. The Reds have yet to develop a TOR starter. The IF has one player developed by the Reds in Votto. The OF is better, but has no superstars. The C position has been a running joke for a decade, but certainly looks promising in the minors right now.

One of Frazier's biggest plus is his ability to play multiple positions. You can bemoan the fact that he doesn't have a true position, but he creates value with his versatility. There are many cases in which a player is developed in the minors at one position but is shifted to another in the majors.


Here is a case in point. Strasburg was considered more polished than Chapman, but WAS sent him to AA to start the year. Why? Development. get him used to the 5 day grind while facing talent he could better handle. That is smart development. It's also smart from a PR standpoint, but that's another discussion.

Stubbs was rushed through the minors, even though his bat wasn't even close to ready. His glove was, certainly. But so was Dickerson's, and he was held back because of his bat. They have very similar skills, excellent defenders, some power, great speed. So why was one rushed and the other on a slower development track?


Bad comp. Strasburg was rightfully considered to be polished and almost MLB ready when he was drafted last year. Stubbs on the other hand was considered a raw prospect, even though he had 3 years of major college baseball under him.

To be honest I try and avoid from arguing about Stubbs with you because it really leads to no where but I think you have this whole development thing completely wrong. I think its fair to say that with an attrition rate of 50% once a player reaches the majors, and in Stubbs case looks to be staying for a considerable time, the development was fine. You are miss a large part of a players development if you are relying on numbers and numbers only. I think its fair to say that the Reds developed Stubbs properly even though each step of the way you were saying they are rushing him.

Its not that you were wrong, but that you (and I) are not privy to the right amount of information to make an educated decision upon a prospects development. I even remember when Jay Bruce was developing and killing minor league pitching the organization was worried about his ability to take a walk. They wanted his BA and OBP to be around .100 separated before he was promoted. He blasted his way to the majors but it looks like just now had he developed that patience at the plate to take his game to the next level. Numbers often time are too deceiving when it comes to making a decision based upon a prospect.


Why is the Reds top pick from 2 years ago (Alonso) OPSing .631? Was he a bad pick or is he being developed wrong.

Does anyone really look at the Reds as an organization and have the words professional, plan, organized, roadmap come to mind? To me, on the development side, they seem to react more than plan. They seem willing to take wild chances like Soto to catcher or Gil to pitcher. Which is fine. But how do you not have a position for one of your top prospects? Why would you move your #1 pick to LF at AA when he's clearly a 1B? I don't care that Votto is the Reds 1B. Alonso only has value at 1B, not LF. If he never plays an inning as a Red, but fetches value in a trade, then the pick isn't wasted. But if he's a sub .800 OPS corner OF that is, well, not a good defender, then the pick was pointless.


Don't understand this logic either. If the Reds feel Alonso's bat is a difference making type of bat then it makes all the sense in the world to move him off of 1b. You aren't going to move Votto, who has made himself into a top tier 1b in the game, and Alonso doesn't have a place to play. If he can play LF and is able to hit then he provides the Reds great value, more so than any trade value he possesses. When drafted many people thought he had the ability to become a .300/.400/.500+ player. If the Reds still feel he had that type of ability, he has more value to the Reds in LF than he does in any trade.

FWIW Teixeira has a sub .700 OPS right now for the Yankees, are they misusing him? Or are we jumping to conclusions due to a small sample size?

TRF
06-08-2010, 03:12 PM
One of Frazier's biggest plus is his ability to play multiple positions. You can bemoan the fact that he doesn't have a true position, but he creates value with his versatility. There are many cases in which a player is developed in the minors at one position but is shifted to another in the majors.

I can't think of a teams top prospect that was ever handled this way,




Bad comp. Strasburg was rightfully considered to be polished and almost MLB ready when he was drafted last year. Stubbs on the other hand was considered a raw prospect, even though he had 3 years of major college baseball under him.

I was referring to Chapman here, but didn't make it clear. My bad.



Don't understand this logic either. If the Reds feel Alonso's bat is a difference making type of bat then it makes all the sense in the world to move him off of 1b. You aren't going to move Votto, who has made himself into a top tier 1b in the game, and Alonso doesn't have a place to play. If he can play LF and is able to hit then he provides the Reds great value, more so than any trade value he possesses. When drafted many people thought he had the ability to become a .300/.400/.500+ player. If the Reds still feel he had that type of ability, he has more value to the Reds in LF than he does in any trade.

Except He was clearly never thought of that way by anyone. Most on this board advocated moving Votto, the team's BEST player in favor of Alonso. He's had to concentrate so much on his defense in LF that it is likely affecting him at the plate. Plus he's had to deal with some injuries which have sappped his power. I won't be surprised to see him drop out of the top 10 in most lists after this season. The Reds put an added burden on a player coming off an injury AND have him at AAA, probably too soon based on his development, not age.



FWIW Teixeira has a sub .700 OPS right now for the Yankees, are they misusing him? Or are we jumping to conclusions due to a small sample size?

Yeah, because comparing Tex to Alonso is apples to apples. oy vey.

Scrap Irony
06-08-2010, 03:39 PM
Offensively, over the past four years, the Reds have developed two All Star level offensive players (Votto and Bruce) and another starter and a half (Stubbs and Hanigan) that are above average players for their respective positions.

In the rotation, the Reds have developed three starters (LeCure, Bailey, and Cueto), two of which have TOR arms and have, in the past, had fairly long stretches of All Star caliber play. Another starter, Mike Leake, was the rarest of birds who needed no minor league experience. That said, the Red minor league and front office personell were astute enough to promote him aggressively.

On the bench, the Reds have two above replacement level guys developed by the farm, in Janish and Heisey.

In the pen, Cincinnati currently has three guys developed completely in the Red pipeline.

That's half the 25 man roster developed by Cincinnati minor league coaches in the past four years. Of those 25, four are first round picks, two are supplimental picks, and the rest are low round guys or free agents. For edification's sake, if you're not picked in the first round, the likelihood of making the majors is less than 10%. The likelihood of making an impact in the major leagues is less than 2%.

I'd argue that the Reds have done a fine job of developing their minor leaguers and that you have a completely unrealistic expectation of prospects. It's a discussion we've had in the past.

westofyou
06-08-2010, 03:52 PM
I'd argue that the Reds have done a fine job of developing their minor leaguers and that you have a completely unrealistic expectation of prospects. It's a discussion we've had in the past.


Quoted for truth, the Reds problem has been getting talent, they have not exactly jettisoned loads of players to other organizations that turned into a swan.

TRF
06-08-2010, 03:59 PM
TOR arms and TOR skills are two different things. I'm not sure Bailey is better now than he was two years ago. Cueto is up and down, both are young, but I'm still waiting for that superstar talent to appear.

Want to know what separates Votto from all the rest the Reds developed? He was actually developed. He wasn't fast tracked. Imagine if the Reds had done that with Dunn or Bruce. What if Dunn continued to develop the skills of hitting to all fields? So we miss 2 years of him at the MLB level.

I know teams generally tend to rush the top picks. economics dictate this, but you have to know when to slow down. I really don't expect top prospects to struggle at the plate once they reach AAA. Sure it happens, but it shouldn't happen. There was no need to promote Alonso to AAA. Sean Henry could have gone. They had similar numbers, Henry had AAA experience, and Yonder was still regaining strength in his hand. It was an aggressive promotion for a player coming off injury. Put it this way, Yonder profiles to be at best Adam Dunn in LF. I doubt he has his bat.

You think I have unrealistic expectations. Thats wrong. What I expect is an organization to make better decisions regarding the talent it has.

bucksfan2
06-08-2010, 04:01 PM
I can't think of a teams top prospect that was ever handled this way,

Think harder!

In recent memory Albert Pujols came up without a position. In his first few years in the league he played 1b, 3b, LF, RF. His main position was 1b but it was blocked by McGwire.

Also Miguel Cabrera came up doing the same thing for the Marlins. He played LF, RF, and 3b. It wasn't until he got to Detroit that he finally started playing his natural position.

Frazier most likely isn't in the league of those two but there are two prime examples of guys who really didn't have a position early on in their career. Their versatility enabled their bat to play in the lineup every day.


Except He was clearly never thought of that way by anyone. Most on this board advocated moving Votto, the team's BEST player in favor of Alonso. He's had to concentrate so much on his defense in LF that it is likely affecting him at the plate. Plus he's had to deal with some injuries which have sappped his power. I won't be surprised to see him drop out of the top 10 in most lists after this season. The Reds put an added burden on a player coming off an injury AND have him at AAA, probably too soon based on his development, not age.

Im not saying that you are wrong, its more of a negative view point on Alonso. Granted I wasn't enamored by the pick it still has a chance to work out. I feel that Alonso in LF for the Reds maximizes his overall value. You can trade him but a couple month rental won't be able to replace the potential value that Alonso has. It may never come to fruition, but I also think that this Reds organization thinks very highly of Alonso's bat, moving him to LF in order to give him a chance to play.

As for moving Votto I don't know why so many people were in favor of that. I think a lot of people though Votto couldn't be "that good" or his "mental issues" would be a problem throughout his entire career. Again I think Votto is "that good" and don't buy much into his mental issues. I think its clearly evident that if Alonso is going to make hey in the Reds organization its going to be in LF. I don't see him playing 1b for the Reds unless Votto goes on the DL.


Yeah, because comparing Tex to Alonso is apples to apples. oy vey.

Not saying that Tex = Alonso. Just making the point that players struggle, even the best players struggle. Tex is in the middle of a woeful beginning to his season. Does that mean he is a bad hitter? Same thing with Alonso, he is learning a new position and coming off an injury. His numbers aren't exactly evident of his skill. I am putting my faith in the Reds organization to develop these players and determine when they are ready to play at the next level.

TRF
06-08-2010, 04:03 PM
Quoted for truth, the Reds problem has been getting talent, they have not exactly jettisoned loads of players to other organizations that turned into a swan.

Is that because of the talent offered or that said talent wasn't developed properly. I don't know the answer to that, but it sure seems like Rolen is awfully swan like.

DRH and Volquez for Hamilton. Lots of talent in that deal. Massett has had an... interesting year, but the Reds got him for Jr. when Jr. had almost no value. The last 6 drafts have seen a bunch of talent infused into the system. But it doesn't seem to be developing. Chicken or egg? bad scouting or bad developing? I think the latter.

TRF
06-08-2010, 04:13 PM
Interesting that you mention Pujols. Pujols DEVELOPED into a top prospect, but wasn't he a 13th round pick? Also in the minors, 1 year, he played every game but 2 at 3B. Not really the same is it. Cabrera is a 1B, a position he never played in the minors, 168 at SS, 161 at 3B. 3 games in the OF and 1 at 2B.

Now lets look at Todd Frazier, the Reds top prospect a year ago.


4 Seasons POS G

LF (3 seasons) LF 103
1B (3 seasons) 1B 43
SS (2 seasons) SS 112
3B (3 seasons) 3B 43
2B (1 season) 2B 37



Not even close to the same. All over the field, no plan whatsoever.

Hoosier Red
06-08-2010, 05:05 PM
The last 6 drafts have seen a bunch of talent infused into the system. But it doesn't seem to be developing. Chicken or egg? bad scouting or bad developing? I think the latter.

The last 6 drafts have seen the following Major Leaguers:
Homer Bailey(2004)
Jay Bruce(2005)
Sam Lecure(2005)
Carlos Fisher(2005)
Adam Rosales(2005)
Logan Ondrusek(2005)
Drew Stubbs(2006)
Chris Heisey(2006)
Josh Roenicke(2006)
Mike Leake(2009)

That's four first round picks who have made at least a decent impact on the big league team.
The other two first rounders are Mesarosco(who was expected to take at least 4-5 years and seems to be coming around) and Alonso.

Also, that 2005 draft was unreal, Bruce, Wood, and four other major leaguers?

Hoosier Red
06-08-2010, 05:10 PM
Interesting that you mention Pujols. Pujols DEVELOPED into a top prospect, but wasn't he a 13th round pick? Also in the minors, 1 year, he played every game but 2 at 3B. Not really the same is it. Cabrera is a 1B, a position he never played in the minors, 168 at SS, 161 at 3B. 3 games in the OF and 1 at 2B.

Now lets look at Todd Frazier, the Reds top prospect a year ago.


4 Seasons POS G

LF (3 seasons) LF 103
1B (3 seasons) 1B 43
SS (2 seasons) SS 112
3B (3 seasons) 3B 43
2B (1 season) 2B 37



Not even close to the same. All over the field, no plan whatsoever.

I'm not sure what you're arguing her TRF. Are you suggesting that Frazier's OPS would be higher if he only played one position on defense? Because from the way I see it, his OPS is good but not great unless he can capably play a bunch of different positions.

If the former is correct, than you're right, they've done him and themselves a disservice. If the latter is correct, than they'd be doing him a disservice to only play him at 3B, LF, 1B or wherever.

Sea Ray
06-08-2010, 05:29 PM
I know teams generally tend to rush the top picks. economics dictate this, but you have to know when to slow down. I really don't expect top prospects to struggle at the plate once they reach AAA. Sure it happens, but it shouldn't happen. There was no need to promote Alonso to AAA. Sean Henry could have gone. They had similar numbers, Henry had AAA experience, and Yonder was still regaining strength in his hand. It was an aggressive promotion for a player coming off injury. Put it this way, Yonder profiles to be at best Adam Dunn in LF. I doubt he has his bat.

You think I have unrealistic expectations. Thats wrong. What I expect is an organization to make better decisions regarding the talent it has.

My take is the Reds are exceedingly patient with their top picks, maybe even to a fault. It's very common nowadays for top picks to skip AAA completely. For example Florida is bringing up their young slugger Mike Stanton as we speak and he is bypassing AAA altogether. Jason Heyward of the Braves played 3 games at AAA and only 47 games in AA. Tim Lincecum had 5 games at AAA, 0 games at AA. Albert Pujols 3 games at AAA, 0 games at AA.

Seems like a lot of other successfully developed guys were sent into the fire with very little upper minor league seasoning.

I think the Reds should promote from AA more often. I think guys sometimes get screwed up toiling in AAA

TRF
06-08-2010, 06:01 PM
The last 6 drafts have seen the following Major Leaguers:
Homer Bailey(2004)
Jay Bruce(2005)
Sam Lecure(2005)
Carlos Fisher(2005)
Adam Rosales(2005)
Logan Ondrusek(2005)
Drew Stubbs(2006)
Chris Heisey(2006)
Josh Roenicke(2006)
Mike Leake(2009)

That's four first round picks who have made at least a decent impact on the big league team.
The other two first rounders are Mesarosco(who was expected to take at least 4-5 years and seems to be coming around) and Alonso.

Also, that 2005 draft was unreal, Bruce, Wood, and four other major leaguers?

An impact on this team. On the Reds. Only because they appeared on the major league roster. Leake is an outlier. What he's doing never happens, and I have to throw him out as the development people never really touched him.

I wouldn't say Bailey has made a positive impact just yet. Bruce isn't a superstar at the plate. Well above average, but not an uber player just yet. The rest are average at best. Could they have been more? What would we be saying about Stubbs had the Reds emphasized his power potential instead of seeing him as a leadoff hitter? As the #7 hitter this year, his numbers rival Rolen's and Votto's and Bruce hitting 5th. It sure does seem like Dusty has finally found the right batting order (another topic, but my goodness look at the splits with the current lineup. just ridiculous!)

Fraziers progress has been slow, but he's all over the field. No comfort zone. Dorn, slow and steady, outhitting Stubbs at every level, currently DL'd with a hand injury i think. Valaika, outhit Stubbs everywhere, still in AAA. Mesoraco in AA, drafted the year after Stubbs, and is what? 20? 21? What is driving the promotions? Age, talent or bonus money? Economics plays a role, I'm not so dense i don't see that. You don't want 2 million dollars toiling in AA, especially if said 2 mil belongs to a 24 year old.

I don't think the Reds mess up every player. I think they miss on a few of the players they have. Players they shouldn't miss on.

RedsManRick
06-08-2010, 06:17 PM
My take is the Reds are exceedingly patient with their top picks, maybe even to a fault. It's very common nowadays for top picks to skip AAA completely. For example Florida is bringing up their young slugger Mike Stanton as we speak and he is bypassing AAA altogether. Jason Heyward of the Braves played 3 games at AAA and only 47 games in AA. Tim Lincecum had 5 games at AAA, 0 games at AA. Albert Pujols 3 games at AAA, 0 games at AA.

Seems like a lot of other successfully developed guys were sent into the fire with very little upper minor league seasoning.

I think the Reds should promote from AA more often. I think guys sometimes get screwed up toiling in AAA

I think you might be letting the tail wag the dog here. Those guys skipped AAA not because it was the team's philosophy to do so necessarily but because it was obvious that they were ready for the majors.

There's a BIG difference between utterly destroying the minors despite being young for the league like Heyward and Lincecum (Pujols is a freak and let's hold off on Stanton until he has some major league success -- he's got contact issues and Brandon Wood and Brandon Larson hit for big power in the minors too).

Frazier and Alonso are both talented guys, but neither has torn up their league (save for Frazier torching A ball as a 22 year old).

I'm struggling to find an example where a young Reds prospect beat up his league for a full season and yet the Reds didn't advance him either immediately or very quickly the following year.

The issue is that the Reds simply haven't had many, if any, superb prospects who destroyed the minors, let alone having a guy like that and a reasonable spot for them in the majors. Maybe Bruce could've come up sooner but he wasn't going to replace Junior.

Who do you think the Reds should have promoted earlier and who are getting screwed up in AAA? Frazier, who hit .290/.350/.481 in AA when the Reds had Phillips and Rolen at the two positions he played? Alonso, who has hit .282/.380/.432 when the Reds have Votto in the majors?

pedro
06-08-2010, 06:18 PM
I don't think the Reds mess up every player. I think they miss on a few of the players they have. Players they shouldn't miss on.

I think you are completely misunderstanding the nature of development. Some players are able to adjust and grow and others are not, more often than not this has more to do with the player than the system. IMO you are placing way too much emphasis on the teams role in this while making what I believe to be a false assumption that when a players succeeds the Reds did something right and when they don't the Reds did something wrong. Things just aren't that simple.

Sea Ray
06-09-2010, 12:04 AM
I'm struggling to find an example where a young Reds prospect beat up his league for a full season and yet the Reds didn't advance him either immediately or very quickly the following year.

The issue is that the Reds simply haven't had many, if any, superb prospects who destroyed the minors, let alone having a guy like that and a reasonable spot for them in the majors. Maybe Bruce could've come up sooner but he wasn't going to replace Junior.



I can give you several examples. Travis Wood last year was 9-3 with a 1.21 earnie at AA. Jay Bruce and Homer Bailey also had huge AA and AAA numbers. Other teams would have promoted these guys right away but the Reds decided to leave them for more seasoning.

RedsManRick
06-09-2010, 11:39 AM
I can give you several examples. Travis Wood last year was 9-3 with a 1.21 earnie at AA. Jay Bruce and Homer Bailey also had huge AA and AAA numbers. Other teams would have promoted these guys right away but the Reds decided to leave them for more seasoning.

Bruce had a great half seasons in A+ ball in 2007 before being promoted to AA. After just 16 games in AA, he was promoted to AAA. The Reds meanwhile had an OF of Dunn, Hamilton, and Junior. All three were hitting very well. At the start of 2008, the Reds wanted to give Bruce a little more time. He continued to mash in AAA, Corey Patterson bombed, and Bruce was up by the end of May. Should they have promoted in 2007? I find it hard to make the case. Should they have started him in CF in 2008, maybe. But they didn't exactly take long to remedy that and I find it extremely specious to suggest that 2 extra months in AAA as a 21 year old somehow stunted his growth.

Bailey had 13 good starts in AA in 2006. In 2007 he had 12 good starts in AAA before getting promoted to the majors. He bombed in the majors. In 2008, he had 2 mediocre months in AAA and was promoted again. He bombed again and finished the year in AAA. In 2009, he dominated AAA for 14 starts before being promoted for a 3rd time. He's been here since. If anything, that pattern suggests to me that he was advanced to the majors too early - not too late. Surely you aren't suggesting that he would be a better pitcher if he came straight to the majors in 2007 having just turned 21 and throwing less than 70 pitches above high A?

Travis Wood got crushed over 17 stars AA ball in 2008. In 2009, he pitched extremely well in AA, though with a ridiculous, unsustainably low HR rate. The Reds promoted him to AAA where he pitched well, but not great. Should he have been promoted to the majors over Justin Lehr? Maybe. Over Matt Maloney? I don't see how you could argue that consider both players' ceilings and Maloney's significant AAA success. And now this year, Wood was the last pitcher cut during camp and is pitching ok, but not great in AAA.

I get your basic premise. Sometimes guys don't need AAA seasoning. In some circumstances, a team is just wasting time by taking a guy through AAA when he could perform in the majors -- better than existing alternatives. In the abstract, I agree. But the Reds simply haven't had any recent examples where a guy clearly was ready but was held back arbitrarily, save maybe for 2 months of Jay Bruce (who didn't exactly light the world on fire during his rookie campaign).

I'm curious how you would have handled any of those 3 guys differently, even in light of the benefit of hindsight.

Hoosier Red
06-09-2010, 01:27 PM
I get your basic premise. Sometimes guys don't need AAA seasoning. In some circumstances, a team is just wasting time by taking a guy through AAA when he could perform in the majors -- better than existing alternatives. In the abstract, I agree. But the Reds simply haven't had any recent examples where a guy clearly was ready but was held back arbitrarily, save maybe for 2 months of Jay Bruce (who didn't exactly light the world on fire during his rookie campaign).


I think the the thought process guiding TRF and Sea Ray is symptomatic of overvaluing individual prospects.

If a farm system "produces" 7 players for the 2010 team there's a lot of value in that, even if those 7 players are SP #3,4,5 Relievers #5,6, and Bench Players #24,25. (The end of the rotation, bullpen, and bench.)

There's value in the minor league system producing that because you don't have to go out and spend on free agents to fill out a competent roster.

But I think we get wrapped up in what one prospect is doing from year to year, see that Todd Frazier is tearing up AA, Devin Mesarosco is smoking Single A and Travis Wood is untouched in AA. When those guys hit a wall, we blame it on the the farm system. Say it's holding back players. When the odds that Devin Mesarosco ever plays for the Reds, much less starts for them are pretty remote.

My guess is there is not a single farm system in Baseball that could have screwed up Albert Pujols, it wouldn't have hurt Mike Leake to go to AAA, but he was able to come straight to the majors. There's no development in those players. Likewise, you can't hold the development side responsible when you're not producing guys like that.

If we exclude Leake from the discussion on those grounds,

From the development period TRF mentioned earlier, the farm system has "produced;" a starting GG caliber CF with an above average OPS for the position, a starting GG caliber RF with an above average OPS, A major league quality backup outfielder, One major league quality backup infielder, One Roughly League Average Starting Pitcher(Cueto:99 ERA+) One Below Average Starting Pitcher(Lecure and Bailey Combined: 82 ERA), and 3 replacement level relief pitchers.
Essentially that's 11 players and 9 slots on the 25 man roster at any given time on a team that is currently 7 games over .500.

To me that sounds like a pretty good haul and doesn't even consider the development of players acquired previous to 2004, like Votto and Hanigan, the development of players like Stewart and Roenicke who were traded for a key player on the 2010 team. It also doesn't consider guys like Herrera or Masset who have spent some time in the minors but came from other organizations.

Sea Ray
06-09-2010, 03:50 PM
Bruce had a great half seasons in A+ ball in 2007 before being promoted to AA. After just 16 games in AA, he was promoted to AAA. The Reds meanwhile had an OF of Dunn, Hamilton, and Junior. All three were hitting very well. At the start of 2008, the Reds wanted to give Bruce a little more time. He continued to mash in AAA, Corey Patterson bombed, and Bruce was up by the end of May. Should they have promoted in 2007? I find it hard to make the case. Should they have started him in CF in 2008, maybe. But they didn't exactly take long to remedy that and I find it extremely specious to suggest that 2 extra months in AAA as a 21 year old somehow stunted his growth.

Bailey had 13 good starts in AA in 2006. In 2007 he had 12 good starts in AAA before getting promoted to the majors. He bombed in the majors. In 2008, he had 2 mediocre months in AAA and was promoted again. He bombed again and finished the year in AAA. In 2009, he dominated AAA for 14 starts before being promoted for a 3rd time. He's been here since. If anything, that pattern suggests to me that he was advanced to the majors too early - not too late. Surely you aren't suggesting that he would be a better pitcher if he came straight to the majors in 2007 having just turned 21 and throwing less than 70 pitches above high A?

Travis Wood got crushed over 17 stars AA ball in 2008. In 2009, he pitched extremely well in AA, though with a ridiculous, unsustainably low HR rate. The Reds promoted him to AAA where he pitched well, but not great. Should he have been promoted to the majors over Justin Lehr? Maybe. Over Matt Maloney? I don't see how you could argue that consider both players' ceilings and Maloney's significant AAA success. And now this year, Wood was the last pitcher cut during camp and is pitching ok, but not great in AAA.

I get your basic premise. Sometimes guys don't need AAA seasoning. In some circumstances, a team is just wasting time by taking a guy through AAA when he could perform in the majors -- better than existing alternatives. In the abstract, I agree. But the Reds simply haven't had any recent examples where a guy clearly was ready but was held back arbitrarily, save maybe for 2 months of Jay Bruce (who didn't exactly light the world on fire during his rookie campaign).

I'm curious how you would have handled any of those 3 guys differently, even in light of the benefit of hindsight.

My point is that the Reds cannot be accused of rushing prospects including Homer. At the time the Reds needed a starter and he was tearing up AA and AAA. Whereas other teams very well may have promoted guys like Bruce and Wood after their successful AA stints.

Your point is that in many cases the Reds didn't need to bring them up and I agree.

My points were made to show that the Reds do not rush propects, if anything they make them prove themselves in AAA whereas others don't. I'm wondering if they'll make Homer do another AAA start before they let him pitch to major leaguers again. I think they might

TRF
06-09-2010, 04:32 PM
My point is that the Reds cannot be accused of rushing prospects including Homer. At the time the Reds needed a starter and he was tearing up AA and AAA. Whereas other teams very well may have promoted guys like Bruce and Wood after their successful AA stints.

Your point is that in many cases the Reds didn't need to bring them up and I agree.

My points were made to show that the Reds do not rush propects, if anything they make them prove themselves in AAA whereas others don't. I'm wondering if they'll make Homer do another AAA start before they let him pitch to major leaguers again. I think they might

See, I disagree. I think they are just now making those prospects prove themselves after seeing the failures of their top prospects at the MLB level. With the exception of Votto, who was fully developed by the time he hit MLB spending a year at each level, learning the game, everyone else looks like an incomplete project. And now we have Bailey saying he's ready, but can't get through 5 innings of a AAA game. TOR arm? sure. TOR pitcher? hardly. Cueto only seems to get his head on straight after Soto pays a visit.

All I am saying is what if? What if the Reds had emphasized Stubbs power potential in the minors? He was even quoted once about his power saying he didn't know where it went, that he's always been able to hit for some power. That was an interview last year I think, before he was called up.

I like the track Mes is on, I like how slow they are going with Soto at High A and catching. BTW, I think they will stick with him at C regardless of the Grandal pick. I remain disappointed that Maloney, who has been developed has yet to pitch for the Reds this year. LeCure has had a solid development path, and it's true that some guys take longer, but he's holding his own pretty well. Had Leake not impressed so much in ST, I like to think the 5th spot would have gone to Maloney over Wood just on experience and development. But for a long time we were seeing young players way to soon. Acevedo, Reith, Davis.

Maybe woy is right. maybe it is a lack of talent, and maybe my expectations are too high. We all want Votto's produced every year, at every position. I want a Jaime Garcia, a Gallardo. I want the Reds to have a Liriano and an Andrus. Where is the Reds Longoria? I am so frustrated about this team that each success seems like a mirage. I see players the Reds used to have enjoying personal and team success elsewhere. Belisle is pitching well. Reyes, Balfour. Dunn is hitting better than he ever has. Kearns too.

So maybe my expectations are unrealistic. I can admit that. But I do remember a young team, talented at every position. Some home grown, some traded for, and a few FA's. A fantastic bullpen, and a rotation that could keep you in the game. They ground it out to the last day and one more.

This ain't that team. not quite. And that frustrates me.

Homer Bailey
06-09-2010, 10:19 PM
Stubbs up to .755 from .544 when this thread started. Pretty amazing/awesome.

fearofpopvol1
06-09-2010, 11:43 PM
He hit another jack tonight. He has a chance to hit 20 HRs this year. He should be a lock to hit at least 15.

Not bad for a guy in his first full year.

OnBaseMachine
06-10-2010, 01:38 AM
He's got a chance for a 20/30 season as he's currently on pace for 20 HR and 34 stolen bases.

BearcatShane
06-15-2010, 01:41 AM
I'm not a hitting coach, so if this is stupid, feel free to let me know, but here is something that I have noticed about Drew Stubbs.

Most of his hits seem to go the opposite way or up the middle and most of his homers seem to go to center field. I do not have a hitting chart in front of me, but I just can't recall Drew pulling many pitches into left field. When he strikes out, I'v noticed many times the pitch is on the inner half of the plate. Does he have trouble hitting pitches on the inner half? Does he have a slow bat? I don't know, just something that I noticed.

fearofpopvol1
06-15-2010, 01:54 AM
I'm not a hitting coach, so if this is stupid, feel free to let me know, but here is something that I have noticed about Drew Stubbs.

Most of his hits seem to go the opposite way or up the middle and most of his homers seem to go to center field. I do not have a hitting chart in front of me, but I just can't recall Drew pulling many pitches into left field. When he strikes out, I'v noticed many times the pitch is on the inner half of the plate. Does he have trouble hitting pitches on the inner half? Does he have a slow bat? I don't know, just something that I noticed.

Yes, and especially if a pitcher throws it chest high, innerhalf. I've noticed the same thing. He has gotten much better at laying off the breaking stuff low.

Blitz Dorsey
06-15-2010, 11:38 PM
I can live with someone making mistakes when they are going all out. What I can't live with is loafing and making mental errors. Unfortunately, it appears Drew Stubbs makes more than his share of mental errors (see: not knowing there were two outs in the Dodgers game Tuesday night and costing the Reds a run) and also loafs from time to time. I have seen him be very casual defensively at times, which has cost the Reds runs. Not in terms of chasing a fly ball, but in terms of his urgency in throwing the ball on a tag up and things of that nature.

If he was raking, I could live with him loafing and making a lot of mental errors. But for a guy that is barely Major League ready offensively, I would like to see a lot more hustle and concentration.

RedsManRick
06-15-2010, 11:55 PM
Do you have any examples of him loafing? I've seen make a few mental errors, both on the bases and in the field, but I can't remember a time when he was just lazy.

dougdirt
06-15-2010, 11:56 PM
The guy runs as hard as he can to first base on every ball he hits. Not sure that I can agree that he is 'loafing'.

fearofpopvol1
06-15-2010, 11:58 PM
He has loafed it for sure...at least twice I can think of, both of which were recent. One time, he lazily threw the ball in and the ball hit the pitcher's mound and the runner scored from 3B. He didn't think they would run home. On the other instance, he was being nonchalant and a runner tagged up from 1B to get to 2B. I admittedly can't remember which teams the Reds played when this happened however.

westofyou
06-16-2010, 12:01 AM
I saw him give a fan the stink eye.

Cedric
06-16-2010, 12:04 AM
It's a 162 game season. Can we keep this stuff in the game threads?

Blitz Dorsey
06-16-2010, 12:09 AM
He has loafed it for sure...at least twice I can think of, both of which were recent. One time, he lazily threw the ball in and the ball hit the pitcher's mound and the runner scored from 3B. He didn't think they would run home. On the other instance, he was being nonchalant and a runner tagged up from 1B to get to 2B. I admittedly can't remember which teams the Reds played when this happened however.

Yep, these are a couple of the things I'm referring to in terms of his defensive "loafing." It's not just about tonight or I would have kept it in the game thread. This is an unfortunate trend I see forming.

Ron Madden
06-16-2010, 05:11 AM
What I think is interesting is that TRF became the voice of the anti-Stubbs crowd, but he was just one of many who were tough on the kid over the past three years. The others have pretty much disappeared -- sort of like one poster who deemed Mesoraco a bust and enjoyed saying "I told you so" as the kid strugged in his first two seasons.

Whether it's Stubbs, Mesoraco, Stewart, Rolen or Dusty Baker, we all should remember we're not as smart as we think we are. "I was wrong" may not taste good coming out, but you're not going to choke on it either.


I have nothing against Drew Stubbs. I want him to succeed.

I was against just handing him the starting job in CF based on a few good weeks at the end of the 2009 season. I thought he and Chris Dickerson should battle for the job during ST or at least platoon for awhile.

There were a few others who agreed with me. I doubt any of us were/are rooting for Stubbs to fail. (And I have never seen him loaf.)

Shoot us for having an opinion.

nate
06-16-2010, 08:30 AM
I saw him give a fan the stink eye.

That's OK but I draw the line at mind darts.

:cool:

Roy Tucker
06-16-2010, 10:33 AM
I saw him give a fan the stink eye.

Boy, I'd hate to see what it would be like if the Reds were playing badly.

fearofpopvol1
07-04-2010, 04:54 PM
Stubbs...THREE HOME RUNS today. Yes, you read that right. 5 RBI.

What a monster day.

RedsManRick
07-04-2010, 05:08 PM
The contact rate is still an issue, but I don't think there's any argument left about his power.

Blitz Dorsey
07-04-2010, 05:56 PM
I love days like this when I'm COMPLETELY WRONG about Drew Stubbs. I'll stand up and admit it.

Keep proving me wrong kid! Heck of a job today at Wrigley and big kudos to you for your first 3 home run game.

RedEye
07-04-2010, 09:52 PM
Any chance Stubbs just homered the "Uncle" off of this thread title?

BCubb2003
07-04-2010, 10:06 PM
Any chance Stubbs just homered the "Uncle" off of this thread title?

I must have missed something, but where did that come from anyway?

RedEye
07-04-2010, 10:07 PM
I must have missed something, but where did that come from anyway?

Doesn't it mean something like "we've had enough" of Drew Stubbs? I'm not sure... but I think it is time to remove it. He's here to stay.

Will M
07-04-2010, 10:16 PM
Doesn't it mean something like "we've had enough" of Drew Stubbs? I'm not sure... but I think it is time to remove it. He's here to stay.

when i was a kid & two old boys fought one would cry 'uncle' when he had had enough. i am not sure why he cried 'uncle' instead of 'i surrender' or 'stop'. i took the use of 'uncle' in this thread in this context.