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View Full Version : Pythagoras Smilin' - 2k10



nate
05-03-2010, 11:02 AM
APRIL

http://img15.imageshack.us/img15/8709/redspythag201004.png

Falls City Beer
05-03-2010, 11:35 AM
Often the thud you hear as the Reds' record smacks into their pythag waits till late May. With the toughness of the competition Cards/Mets/Cards on the near horizon, the season may be more clearly over (record-wise) quite a bit earlier this season.

Speaking of Mets: over/under on # of dingers Gary Mathews, Jr. hits off Reds' pitching?

NJReds
05-03-2010, 11:57 AM
Speaking of Mets: over/under on # of dingers Gary Mathews, Jr. hits off Reds' pitching?

Assuming he plays. He's been riding the pine for most of the season as Pagan has taken over the everyday CF job.

Falls City Beer
05-03-2010, 12:04 PM
Assuming he plays. He's been riding the pine for most of the season as Pagan has taken over the everyday CF job.

Nothing--nothing--untracks a hitter like Reds' pitching. Pitching underhanded and tees are less effective.

nate
05-17-2010, 05:06 PM
An interesting twist (http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2004/03/040330090259.htm) on the ol' Pythag.


To predict the winning percentage of a team, one new model simply uses a little addition, subtraction, and multiplication. It starts with the total runs scored by the team in all its games (Rs), and subtracts the runs it allows (Ra), and then multiplies it by a number called "beta" (B) which is chosen to produce the best results. For the 1969-2003 seasons, the optimal values of B range from 0.00053 to 0.00078, with an average of 0.00065.

Adding 0.5 to the result gives the predicted winning percentage of the team. The resulting formula looks like this:

The estimated winning percentage, P = 0.5 + B*(Rs-Ra)

TheNext44
05-17-2010, 05:16 PM
Nothing--nothing--untracks a hitter like Reds' pitching. Pitching underhanded and tees are less effective.

The Pirates and the Cardinals think the same thing. :p:

HotCorner
05-17-2010, 05:19 PM
I believe this bodes well for our Redlegs.

April
12-11 (.522) RS: 106 RA: 126 (-20)

May
9-5 (.643) RS: 71 RA: 52 (+19)

Great defense. Aggressive baserunning. Good pitching. Clutch hitting. I'm liking this brand of baseball.

HotCorner
05-30-2010, 01:00 AM
May continues the upward trend.

18-9 RS: 158 RA: 103 (+55)

This team is simply clicking.

HotCorner
05-30-2010, 01:03 AM
Best run differential for the month of May thus far.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/standings/_/month/may

dougdirt
05-30-2010, 01:16 AM
Pythag has us a 29-21 right now if I can do math right. Pretty much right in line with where we are. :thumbup:

red-in-la
05-30-2010, 01:18 AM
Often the thud you hear as the Reds' record smacks into their pythag waits till late May. With the toughness of the competition Cards/Mets/Cards on the near horizon, the season may be more clearly over (record-wise) quite a bit earlier this season.

Speaking of Mets: over/under on # of dingers Gary Mathews, Jr. hits off Reds' pitching?

FCB? . . . . FCB? . . . . are you in here?

I heard a loud thud just now, but I think it was your usually dower outlook hitting the floor, not anything having to do with the best record in the NL Reds.:D

PuffyPig
05-30-2010, 01:43 AM
FCB? . . . . FCB? . . . . are you in here?

I heard a loud thud just now, but I think it was your usually dower outlook hitting the floor, not anything having to do with the best record in the NL Reds.:D

Aas the Cards hitting goes south, the Reds run differential goes north, FCB seams to disappear from the board. As usual.

nate
05-30-2010, 09:15 AM
It's gonna be time for a new graph!

Homer Bailey
05-30-2010, 01:33 PM
Anyone know where the FCB Pytag quote is? Wasn't it something like "they'll be back to Earth by June?"

membengal
05-30-2010, 01:37 PM
Anyone know where the FCB Pytag quote is? Wasn't it something like "they'll be back to Earth by June?"

Um, quoted three posts above yours?

Homer Bailey
05-30-2010, 01:41 PM
Um, quoted three posts above yours?

IT's too early for me. Yes I realize it is 12:45 on the east coast.

I still thought there was a more definitive one that that one, but I may be wrong. I'll have to search.

Falls City Beer
05-30-2010, 01:55 PM
Aas the Cards hitting goes south, the Reds run differential goes north, FCB seams to disappear from the board. As usual.

I've been here as much as I have otherwise this season. Not sure what you're talking about except to flamebait.

Anyone else realize we had the Phillies 2008-9 offense and a top ten pitcher on the roster (Leake)?

Yeah, me either.

I'm happy as hell--but let's not pretend that anybody saw this coming. If someone claims to have seen it, they're lying.

dougdirt
05-30-2010, 01:59 PM
I've been as much as I have otherwise this season. Not sure what you're talking about except to flamebait.

Anyone else realize we had the Phillies 2008-9 offense and a top ten pitcher on the roster (Leake)?

Yeah, me either.

I'm happy as hell--but let's not pretend that anybody saw this coming. If someone claims to have seen it, they're lying.

While I can't say I saw this entirely, I did predict the Reds score 776 runs this season (http://redsminorleagues.com/2010/03/25/thursday-news-and-notes-14/), with an 86-76 record. Still feel pretty good about that one.

Falls City Beer
05-30-2010, 02:01 PM
While I can't say I saw this entirely, I did predict the Reds score 776 runs this season (http://redsminorleagues.com/2010/03/25/thursday-news-and-notes-14/), with an 86-76 record. Still feel pretty good about that one.

I think the offense blows that RS number away.

That's what I'm saying. This offense isn't good (which is what 776 RS would be), they're excellent.

kpresidente
05-31-2010, 10:23 AM
I think the offense blows that RS number away.

That's what I'm saying. This offense isn't good (which is what 776 RS would be), they're excellent.

Really? Is the Hernandez/Hanigan combo really good for a .904 OPS? Is Gomes really as good as he looks? Is Scott Rolen really going to finish the season with his current pace of 35 HR?

I hate to be a downer, but I think we've been outhitting ourselves so far.

Spring~Fields
05-31-2010, 10:47 AM
Anyone know where the FCB Pytag quote is? Wasn't it something like "they'll be back to Earth by June?"

I am bit leery of rattling any cages before June has come and gone with the schedule in June being a bit different than the schedule of May. Some of those on the schedule in June have the appearance of being able to score some runs and or to prevent some runs. April showers can bring May flowers, but Juneís heat can bring wilt.

Feel free to poke those sticks and rattle those cages, :thumbup:
I have done that in the past and got my backside burnt good. :yikes:

Falls City Beer
05-31-2010, 11:48 AM
Really? Is the Hernandez/Hanigan combo really good for a .904 OPS? Is Gomes really as good as he looks? Is Scott Rolen really going to finish the season with his current pace of 35 HR?

I hate to be a downer, but I think we've been outhitting ourselves so far.

I don't see any reason why Rolen can't hit 35 HR in this division and park. And yeah, Gomes is probably about as good as what you're seeing. Of course Hernandez/Hanigan aren't going to OPS .900 all season, but they don't have to for this team to score 825 runs. I think you know that though.

I'm waiting on the other shoe to drop on Cueto and Arroyo; and eventually Leake is going to have to curb his innings. That's what worries me.

nate
05-31-2010, 12:39 PM
Really? Is the Hernandez/Hanigan combo really good for a .904 OPS? Is Gomes really as good as he looks? Is Scott Rolen really going to finish the season with his current pace of 35 HR?.

No, unlikely, unlikely.

TheNext44
05-31-2010, 01:16 PM
Currently the Reds are on pace to win 95 games. I don't think anyone thinks that will happen. But if they come back to earth and win 88 to 90, I know I will be very happy.

Homer Bailey
05-31-2010, 01:18 PM
I am bit leery of rattling any cages before June has come and gone with the schedule in June being a bit different than the schedule of May. Some of those on the schedule in June have the appearance of being able to score some runs and or to prevent some runs. April showers can bring May flowers, but Juneís heat can bring wilt.

Feel free to poke those sticks and rattle those cages, :thumbup:
I have done that in the past and got my backside burnt good. :yikes:

Just having fun!

Spring~Fields
05-31-2010, 04:54 PM
Just having fun!

I know. :)

Didn't say I wasn't enjoying your fun along with you too. :evil:

Falls City Beer
05-31-2010, 07:40 PM
Pythagoras just sent Arroyo a short note.

Falls City Beer
05-31-2010, 08:38 PM
Reds' pitchers getting a healthy dose of correction. This team's pitching is in no way above average. Tonight is just a gentle reminder.

TheNext44
05-31-2010, 08:51 PM
Reds' pitchers getting a healthy dose of correction. This team's pitching is in no way above average. Tonight is just a gentle reminder.

If it's procedure to suggest that one game proves a person's position, this is going to be a very crowded and ugly board.

Spring~Fields
05-31-2010, 08:52 PM
Reds' pitchers getting a healthy dose of correction. This team's pitching is in no way above average. Tonight is just a gentle reminder.

Well you just had to mention Reds pitching again. So I just have to ask the question.

How can you do both, one compliment Reds hitting and their offense, yet criticise Reds pitching?

If the Reds pitching is what you say and you might be right depending on the level of the competition on a given day. Then what is or was Pirates, Astros, Cubs, Mets and Indians pitching, where the Reds hitting are able to look so good against, that same hitting of the Reds that you have complimented?

If the Reds pitching is questionable or maybe bad, then it would follow that Reds hitting feasted on even worse pitching than what you indicate that the Reds have, right or wrong? So how good is that offense really?

TheNext44
05-31-2010, 09:13 PM
Well you just had to mention Reds pitching again. So I just have to ask the question.

How can you do both, one compliment Reds hitting and their offense, yet criticise Reds pitching?

If the Reds pitching is what you say and you might be right depending on the level of the competition on a given day. Then what is or was Pirates, Astros, Cubs, Mets and Indians pitching, where the Reds hitting are able to look so good against, that same hitting of the Reds that you have complimented?

If the Reds pitching is questionable or maybe bad, then it would follow that Reds hitting feasted on even worse pitching than what you indicate that the Reds have, right or wrong? So how good is that offense really?

You are absolutely right for questioning the Reds offense. There is no way that the Reds will score 840 runs this season, which is what they are on pace for. I'd be happy if they ended up scoring 740.

But I think it's impossible to conclude that the Reds offense is bad or even below average. They have faced slightly less better than average pitching staffs than worse than average (23-29), but the Cubs are real close to league average, and the Reds faced them six times, so it's actually quite even.

And anyway, the fact that the Reds have faced more less than average pitching over the course of the season is a much fact to use in an argument than using the fact that the team did not fair well in one game, after a rain delay, with an ump calling a tight and inconsistent strike zone, against one of the best lineups in the game.

Spring~Fields
05-31-2010, 09:24 PM
You are absolutely right for questioning the Reds offense. There is no way that the Reds will score 840 runs this season, which is what they are on pace for. I'd be happy if they ended up scoring 740.

But I think it's impossible to conclude that the Reds offense is bad or even below average. They have faced slightly less better than average pitching staffs than worse than average (23-29), but the Cubs are real close to league average, and the Reds faced them six times, so it's actually quite even.

And anyway, the fact that the Reds have faced more less than average pitching over the course of the season is a much fact to use in an argument than using the fact that the team did not fair well in one game, after a rain delay, with an ump calling a tight and inconsistent strike zone, against one of the best lineups in the game.

I really don't disagree with anything that you are saying or implying here.

I agree with what you are implying about today’s game. I don’t think this game indicates anything, as tomorrow it can be just the reverse of today’s outcome, so is life in sports on given days. I don’t even think a sweep by St. Louis would mean that much on the season.

It was just that I read FCB, and have for a very long time now. I just could not see how he could feel so strongly about Reds pitching while complimenting Reds hitting against worst pitching than he respectfully, implies that the Reds have. I don’t think the Reds pitching is bad, and I think the pitching is what gives us hope as Reds fans for now and into the future. Even if they have to trade some pitching to build up the offense and defense into what could be become very good or maybe even great again in the near future.

nate
06-01-2010, 11:03 AM
http://img243.imageshack.us/img243/7166/pythag.png (http://img243.imageshack.us/i/pythag.png/)

Falls City Beer
06-01-2010, 11:09 PM
If it's procedure to suggest that one game proves a person's position, this is going to be a very crowded and ugly board.

Nah. Cueto and Arroyo were pitching over their heads.

Falls City Beer
06-01-2010, 11:16 PM
This is a poor pitching staff. It was only a matter of time.

Degenerate39
06-01-2010, 11:22 PM
This is a poor pitching staff. It was only a matter of time.

Seriously?

Falls City Beer
06-01-2010, 11:23 PM
Seriously?

Numbers don't lie; they're a below average pitching staff.

fearofpopvol1
06-01-2010, 11:24 PM
Numbers don't lie; they're a below average pitching staff.

What do you consider to be average?

Degenerate39
06-01-2010, 11:25 PM
Numbers don't lie; they're a below average pitching staff.

Then about 3/4ths of MLB teams are probably below average then

Falls City Beer
06-01-2010, 11:25 PM
Then about 3/4ths of MLB teams are probably below average then

Team ERA is below MLB average.

RedsManRick
06-01-2010, 11:50 PM
Team ERA is below MLB average.

Adjust for park effects? If we're talking about the skill of the pitchers, you gotta neutralize.

Falls City Beer
06-01-2010, 11:52 PM
Adjust for park effects? If we're talking about the skill of the pitchers, you gotta neutralize.

Gotta neutralize for the quality of the opponent as well--this is the NL Central we're talking about.

Homer Bailey
06-01-2010, 11:56 PM
Pretty coincidental timing for these posts.... hmmm....

Falls City Beer
06-01-2010, 11:56 PM
Pretty coincidental timing for these posts.... hmmm....

Nah, they just won't let me post in the game threads anymore.

cincrazy
06-02-2010, 12:45 AM
Numbers don't lie; they're a below average pitching staff.

The bullpen is a problem, I'll give you that. But since the first two weeks of the season, the rotation has been awesome. Does it have a clear cut, bona fide #1? No. And will that be a problem eventually? Probably. But the starting rotation has been getting the job done.

dougdirt
06-16-2010, 01:03 AM
Tonights game is not going to help.

nate
06-16-2010, 09:30 AM
Tonights game is not going to help.

I'm glad I went to bed instead of watching that.

westofyou
06-16-2010, 10:37 AM
Nah, they just won't let me post in the game threads anymore.

Really?

Can't see why not, they're hardly the bastion of critical thinking.

edabbs44
06-16-2010, 11:26 AM
Nah, they just won't let me post in the game threads anymore.

Is this a Volquez type suspension or was it Pete Rose style?

Spring~Fields
06-16-2010, 12:00 PM
I donít think the Reds pitching is bad, and I think the pitching is what gives us hope as Reds fans for now and into the future.

Note to myself.
Dummy, go back to remedial copy and pasting if you canít think any better than that.



Reds Runs Allowed, pitching/defense
2010 RA 312 / 65 4.80 rpg * 162 projects 778 RA
2009 RA 723 / 162 4.46 rpg
2008 RA 800 / 162 4.93 rpg
2007 RA 853 / 162 5.27 rpg
2006 RA 801 / 162 4.94 rpg


I am still suspicous when I see a group of players appear to struggle or go bad at the same time. I can't help but wonder if something was changed or suggested that isn't working, to a group of, be it pitchers or hitters when so many at the same time are doing poorly or maybe under performing.

Spring~Fields
06-16-2010, 12:03 PM
Really?

Can't see why not, they're hardly the bastion of critical thinking.

There's critical

There's thinking

In the game threads :)

RedsManRick
06-16-2010, 05:52 PM
Note to myself.
Dummy, go back to remedial copy and pasting if you canít think any better than that.



Reds Runs Allowed, pitching/defense
2010 RA 312 / 65 4.80 rpg * 162 projects 778 RA
2009 RA 723 / 162 4.46 rpg
2008 RA 800 / 162 4.93 rpg
2007 RA 853 / 162 5.27 rpg
2006 RA 801 / 162 4.94 rpg


I am still suspicous when I see a group of players appear to struggle or go bad at the same time. I can't help but wonder if something was changed or suggested that isn't working, to a group of, be it pitchers or hitters when so many at the same time are doing poorly or maybe under performing.

If you're asking that question in regards to run prevention, defense is part of it. A poor(er) defense is generally going to hurt all of your pitchers.

nate
07-12-2010, 06:17 PM
ASB update! Blue line is actual record, red = pythag.

http://img651.imageshack.us/img651/4954/asbpythag.png (http://img651.imageshack.us/i/asbpythag.png/)

OnBaseMachine
07-27-2010, 01:58 AM
The Reds are now actually a game under their expected record.

+51 RS/RA
Expected record: 56-45
Actual record: 55-46

nate
07-27-2010, 09:20 AM
The Reds are now actually a game under their expected record.

+51 RS/RA
Expected record: 56-45
Actual record: 55-46

Nice.

Love to see a positive run difference!

OnBaseMachine
07-28-2010, 04:21 PM
Another update:

+61
Expected W/L record: 58-44
Actual W/L record: 56-46

fearofpopvol1
07-28-2010, 07:01 PM
they should be smiling even more now. you can tack on a +8 now.

OnBaseMachine
07-28-2010, 07:07 PM
they should be smiling even more now. you can tack on a +8 now.

+69
Expected W/L record: 59-44
Actual W/L record: 57-46

IslandRed
07-28-2010, 09:35 PM
It's just one man's measure, but I've always informally used five runs as the beginning point of a tail-kicking -- as in, beaten worse than one swing of the bat can fix. Since losing to the Dodgers 12-0 six weeks ago, we're 8-1 in games decided by 5+ runs. That doesn't point out anything we don't already know -- that our offense is streaky and the pitching generally keeps the team in the game -- but I thought it was interesting.

OnBaseMachine
07-29-2010, 02:03 PM
Dating back to August 23rd of 2009, the Cincinnati Reds are 84-59 in their last 143 games and have outscored their opponents 703-579 for a run differential of +124. Let's hope it continues.

OnBaseMachine
08-04-2010, 04:54 PM
Another update:

+79 RS/RA
Expected W/L record: 63-46
Actual W/L record: 61-48

CaiGuy
08-04-2010, 04:55 PM
Another update:

+79 RS/RA
Expected W/L record: 63-46
Actual W/L record: 61-48

A good sign considering they have passed up the Cardinals now (+71).

fearofpopvol1
08-04-2010, 07:12 PM
Very good sign

The Operator
08-04-2010, 08:09 PM
Considering how far behind The Cardinals this team was in terms of run differential earlier in the season, The Reds really have played great baseball.

That's why I feel different about this team than in years past. I still find myself getting stressed out and thinking "Oh no, here we go." sometimes when things start to go bad. But this team has one thing that those teams of yesteryear NEVER had - and that's a very solid run differential. It's not a mirage.

This has been the funnest Reds season since I was in 6th grade. I'm a 5th year college student, for perspective. Heh.

OnBaseMachine
08-04-2010, 09:03 PM
The Reds finished April with a -20 run differential. Since May 1st they are at +99. If you go back a few days earlier to April 25th they're at +109.

OnBaseMachine
08-08-2010, 06:52 PM
8/8 update:

+90 RS/RA
Expected W/L record: 66-46
Actual W/L record: 64-48

As of this moment, the Reds have the best run differential in the National League.

PuffyPig
08-08-2010, 08:11 PM
As of this moment, the Reds have the best run differential in the National League.

You know OBM, I mentioned this to me son (Jay Bruce) going in to the bottom of the 7th today, then the Reds gave up 4 runs.

But they rallied and made a honest man of me.

OnBaseMachine
08-08-2010, 08:14 PM
You know OBM, I mentioned this to me son (Jay Bruce) going in to the bottom of the 7th today, the the Reds gave up 4 runs.

But they rallied and made a honest man of me.

The Padres won big today (10-1) so they re-took the lead at +98, but second best ain't too bad.

fearofpopvol1
08-25-2010, 01:58 AM
After last night and tonight...they can't be smiling at all. They have been out scored by 20 runs in 2 nights.

The Operator
08-25-2010, 02:24 AM
Pythagoras is rolling over in his grave after this embarrassment.

nate
08-25-2010, 09:42 AM
Pythy is only one game behind our actual record. He might not be showing teeth, but the ends of his lips still trend up!

:cool:

OnBaseMachine
10-04-2010, 04:05 PM
End of the season update:

790 Runs Scored
685 Runs Allowed

+105 RS/RA

Actual record: 91-71
Expected W-L record: 91-71

MLB.com's standings has the Reds expected W/L as 91-71 while Baseball Reference has it at 92-70.