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View Full Version : My Only Goal for the Rest of 2010? Set the Rotation for 2011



Edskin
05-03-2010, 06:50 PM
The Reds are not good this year. They are not bad either. And that's an improvement. I hope I'm wrong and the Reds find a way to compete for the playoffs this season, but through 25 games I honestly see absolutely no reason to believe we'll be in contention come September. This season has 78-82 wins written all over it to me-- and depending on how we get there, I could very well be fine with that.

So I'm not really watching the games right now with any real intent interest to be perfectly honest. These Reds are what they are-- a fairly mundane group that is better than some miserable recent incarnations.

But there is one thing that really interests/intruiges me and I would really like to enter next season having hammered it down.

Heading into 2011, I want to know EXACTLY what the rotation is going to be for the following 2-3 years. I want to be comfortable with the 5 guys and what their role(s) will be. I want to know who the ace is going to be, who the workhorse is going to be, etc.

IMO, if we enter 2011 with a scramble in the rotation or 2-3 slots that aren't producing, then 2010 will have been a failure, regardless of how many games we win.

Harang
Arroyo
Wood
Homer
Cueto
Volquez
Leake
Chapman

I want two of those guys to enter 2011 as sure-fire top of the rotation guys. I want 2 more to be completely entrenched in the middle and I want another 1-2 to battle it out for the 5th spot....may the best man win, regardless of experience.

If I could realistically lay it out, it would go something like this:

Leake continues his stellar rookie year and Chapman proves by October to be fully ready for the rotation in 2011.

Leake and Champman are your 1-2 punch.

Cueto and Bailey both gain enough consistency for them each to be considered reliable 3-4 starters.

Wood and Volquez do well enough to allow us to deal Arroyo-- who has nice value for most any contending team.

Harang is gone

Leake
Chapman
Cueto
Homer
Volquez-Wood

I want that to be set in stone next year. If that's the case and each guy has proven he belongs in his respective spot, then I think we can really start talking about meaningful baseball in Cincinnati.

TRF
05-03-2010, 06:53 PM
You left out Maloney, which IMO is a mistake.

_Sir_Charles_
05-03-2010, 07:03 PM
I agree that they need to figure it out sooner rather than later. And I loved the Chapman signing. I think that some will be disappointed when he's not ready even next year. His control really bothers me. Those K's are fine in the minors when that velocity is blowing their minds. But in the bigs, those K's will dwindle some and the walks will explode IMO. Hopefully I'm wrong, but I haven't seen the signs yet. You also might be selling Volquez, Cueto & Bailey short. IMO, all three of them have the stuff to be 1-2's in the rotation. All in all, it's a nice problem to have. But they need to work on making some decisions pretty soon for the future.

And yes, you can't leave out Maloney. He's repeatedly getting overlooked IMO.

HokieRed
05-03-2010, 07:32 PM
Need an experienced, TOR guy from outside to be a serious factor. JMHO

Benihana
05-03-2010, 07:57 PM
The Reds are not good this year. They are not bad either. And that's an improvement. I hope I'm wrong and the Reds find a way to compete for the playoffs this season, but through 25 games I honestly see absolutely no reason to believe we'll be in contention come September. This season has 78-82 wins written all over it to me-- and depending on how we get there, I could very well be fine with that.

So I'm not really watching the games right now with any real intent interest to be perfectly honest. These Reds are what they are-- a fairly mundane group that is better than some miserable recent incarnations.

But there is one thing that really interests/intruiges me and I would really like to enter next season having hammered it down.

Heading into 2011, I want to know EXACTLY what the rotation is going to be for the following 2-3 years. I want to be comfortable with the 5 guys and what their role(s) will be. I want to know who the ace is going to be, who the workhorse is going to be, etc.

IMO, if we enter 2011 with a scramble in the rotation or 2-3 slots that aren't producing, then 2010 will have been a failure, regardless of how many games we win.

Harang
Arroyo
Wood
Homer
Cueto
Volquez
Leake
Chapman

I want two of those guys to enter 2011 as sure-fire top of the rotation guys. I want 2 more to be completely entrenched in the middle and I want another 1-2 to battle it out for the 5th spot....may the best man win, regardless of experience.

If I could realistically lay it out, it would go something like this:

Leake continues his stellar rookie year and Chapman proves by October to be fully ready for the rotation in 2011.

Leake and Champman are your 1-2 punch.

Cueto and Bailey both gain enough consistency for them each to be considered reliable 3-4 starters.

Wood and Volquez do well enough to allow us to deal Arroyo-- who has nice value for most any contending team.

Harang is gone

Leake
Chapman
Cueto
Homer
Volquez-Wood

I want that to be set in stone next year. If that's the case and each guy has proven he belongs in his respective spot, then I think we can really start talking about meaningful baseball in Cincinnati.

I want it too, but IMO it is just not realistic (sadly).

First, expecting a rookie to be your #2 pitcher on a contending team will almost set you up for disappointment as much as expecting a 23 year old, 2nd year pitcher to be your ace. Neither situation is very realistic, and expecting both at the same time in pretty implausible.

Bailey and Cueto can probably be penciled in as #3 and #4 guys. Chapman and Leake could very well become #1 and #2 starters one day in the not-so-distant future (I believe in that order, respectively), but if you're expecting all four of these things to happen as of Opening Day 2011 then you are probably going to be disappointed.

fearofpopvol1
05-03-2010, 10:51 PM
I want it too, but IMO it is just not realistic (sadly).

First, expecting a rookie to be your #2 pitcher on a contending team will almost set you up for disappointment as much as expecting a 23 year old, 2nd year pitcher to be your ace. Neither situation is very realistic, and expecting both at the same time in pretty implausible.

Bailey and Cueto can probably be penciled in as #3 and #4 guys. Chapman and Leake could very well become #1 and #2 starters one day in the not-so-distant future (I believe in that order, respectively), but if you're expecting all four of these things to happen as of Opening Day 2011 then you are probably going to be disappointed.

I agree with you. It's very very ambitious to count on really young pitchers to carry the entire staff. I think a veteran pitcher is needed.

Falls City Beer
05-03-2010, 10:54 PM
The Reds may not be horrible, but they're probably bad. Sorry, Ed.

Cedric
05-03-2010, 11:03 PM
The Reds may not be horrible, but they're probably bad. Sorry, Ed.

They are pretty damn bad. It's a roster filled with redundant skill sets and players not worthy of being a MLB starter.

Does anything change around here? DanO, Krivsky, Jocketty all could pass for the same man. Some decent ideas inside their baseball brains but mostly just archaic/dumb thinking.

Is it too much to ask that this team hire someone with any vision?

Will M
05-03-2010, 11:49 PM
its too early to tell if ANY of our current five starters or the guys in AAA will be in the rotation in 2011. all i can say is that Harang will not .

Bronson's option for 2011 could be picked up. depends on how he does this year. 200 IP with an ERA+ of 100-110 is worth a lot on the open market.
i also agree that a veteran SP is helpful to a young staff

Leake has impressed so far. I too dream of the Leake-Chapman 1-2 punch.

Cueto & Bailey could be in the 2011 rotation or not. My gut says Bailey is in & Cueto gets moved to the pen at some point.

Chapman & Wood are likely ready at some point this year.

Maloney is a guy I would like to see in middle/long relief.

Volquez - depends on what he has after recovering from his TJ surgery.

My prediction for 2011:
Arroyo
Leake
Chapman (L)
Bailey
Volquez

Relievers include Coco, Masset, Herrera, Cueto & Maloney

where's Wood? traded to fill some pressing need. just a hunch. however, if Volquez doesn't come back strong Wood is the 5th starter

WVRedsFan
05-04-2010, 12:10 AM
You left out Maloney, which IMO is a mistake.

I agree. Looks like me might be in a good position to deal some starters for that big bat needed in the OF. Or not...:)