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flyer85
05-05-2010, 11:45 AM
interesting that Carlos Lee is far and away the worst player in the majors so far this year in term of Fangraphs "dollars". He is worth a minus 4.7. That contract is starting to look really bad.

The Red farthest down the list is Stubbs at a minus 2.0. For all of you lovers of defensive metrics Stubbs has a UZR of -4.2 and a UZR/150 of -22.5. Explain that away. How did he get so much worse in the course of an offseason? :D

BTW, I think trying to translate defensive play into runs and dollars is an exercise in futility. I only use the defensive metrics as a generalization. However, I know others around here have invested a lot more in the ability to translate defensive play into runs and dollars.

dougdirt
05-05-2010, 11:51 AM
interesting that Carlos Lee is far and away the worst player in the majors so far this year in term of Fangraphs "dollars". He is worth a minus 4.7. That contract is starting to look really bad.

The Red farthest down the list is Stubbs at a minus 2.0. For all of you lovers of defensive metrics Stubbs has a UZR of -4.2 and a UZR/150 of -22.5. Explain that away. How did he get so much worse in the course of an offseason? :D

BTW, I think trying to translate defensive play into runs and dollars is an exercise in futility. I only use the defensive metrics as a generalization. However, I know others around here have invested a lot more in the ability to translate defensive play into runs and dollars.
I don't think any of us really care about the translation to dollars. The runs are easily converted to dollars once we get to that point though.

As for UZR, while I am sure you are joking because of the emoticon, for those who don't know that, small. sample. size.

flyer85
05-05-2010, 12:00 PM
I don't think any of us really care about the translation to dollars. The runs are easily converted to dollars once we get to that point though.

As for UZR, while I am sure you are joking because of the emoticon, for those who don't know that, small. sample. size.but UZR/150 tends to bounce around from year to year.

I know at this point everyone will jump into the small sample size hole but what if it doesn't go away. What next, player having a bad defensive year or is it possible that defensive play cannot be translated very accurately?

dougdirt
05-05-2010, 12:11 PM
but UZR/150 tends to bounce around from year to year.

I know at this point everyone will jump into the small sample size hole but what if it doesn't go away. What next, player having a bad defensive year or is it possible that defensive play cannot be translated very accurately?

Well we generally need more than one season to find ones true skill level in the stats for defense. Now that may not change what he was able to do on the field, because just like at the plate (some guys have years where they hit it where they ain't - fielders can have years where guys just happen to hit it where they ain't), luck can come into play. I think we should always use scouting reports to verify defensive stats because of this, especially on players with limited sample sizes.

flyer85
05-05-2010, 12:13 PM
Well we generally need more than one season to find ones true skill level in the stats for defense.
so they are better used for generalizations rather than accurately giving some defensive run value at any point in time?

jojo
05-05-2010, 02:13 PM
I know at this point everyone will jump into the small sample size hole but what if it doesn't go away.

Ruh-roh! :cool:

jojo
05-05-2010, 02:20 PM
so they are better used for generalizations rather than accurately giving some defensive run value at any point in time?

I think 1300 defensive innings would be interesting and maybe cause for pause but I wouldn't argue they should trump the scouting over his minor league career. It's also possible that his UZR won't match his major league report too...

But ya, a big part of his worth is tied to his glove.

flyer85
05-05-2010, 02:22 PM
But ya, a big part of his worth is tied to his glove.at this point one might say all of his worth

RedsManRick
05-05-2010, 03:13 PM
interesting that Carlos Lee is far and away the worst player in the majors so far this year in term of Fangraphs "dollars". He is worth a minus 4.7. That contract is starting to look really bad.

The Red farthest down the list is Stubbs at a minus 2.0. For all of you lovers of defensive metrics Stubbs has a UZR of -4.2 and a UZR/150 of -22.5. Explain that away. How did he get so much worse in the course of an offseason? :D

BTW, I think trying to translate defensive play into runs and dollars is an exercise in futility. I only use the defensive metrics as a generalization. However, I know others around here have invested a lot more in the ability to translate defensive play into runs and dollars.

I realize this is somewhat a rhetorical question, but it's a point that often gets misinterpreted. Performance and talent are not the same thing. We can measure performance pretty darn well. It's the talent piece that's tough. UZR is a measure of performance. Particularly over short samples, great players can play poorly and vice versa -- and that shows up in every performance measurement, from AVG and HR to UZR and VORP.

In terms of assessing talent, we have to look at a combination of a significant amount of past performance data along with scouting information to vet the stats -- and vice versa.

I think it's fair to say that Stubbs' is a very talented defensive CF having a pretty poor start to his season performance-wise

And I think you should be careful not to conflate the run conversion math with the dollar conversion. They are completely separate. And the dollar conversion math is extremely well vetted based on actual FA market activity.